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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB remains an odds-on favourite to win most votes at EURO

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited March 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB remains an odds-on favourite to win most votes at EURO2014 but don’t rule out Ukip

One consequence of this is that the Conservative vote is in sharp decline and this is enabling the yellows to make local gains at the expense of the blues while losing badly to the red team. This could be the pattern for the May 2nd elections when the Tories are defending twice as many seats as the LDs and LAB combined.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited March 2013
    Am I first? This thread doesn't appear yet as a discussion in the back office bit of Vanilla.

    EDIT - Ah ha, they don't appear until someone comments...
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited March 2013
    "The UK Independence Party will be "actively targeting" Labour supporters in upcoming local elections in England and Wales, its leader says.

    Nigel Farage will tell activists at their spring conference later that the party has an appeal beyond disaffected Conservative voters.

    He is expected to focus on what he sees as the impact of immigration in working-class communities. He is also due to voice his criticism of recent press regulation changes...

    Mr Farage is expected to focus, in his speech at lunchtime in Exeter, on what he sees as the impact of immigration in working-class communities: putting pressure on public services and squeezing wages. " http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-21908204
  • Don't know about that 2/1, Mike, but there is certainly a mood of protest out there.

    UKIP could attract the disaffected vote from all quarters. I'm backing them in a variety of ways.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    One thing we are learning from Vanilla is that a sizeable part of PBs audience do not follow the comment threads.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    OT If you haven't voted already - pls add your 2p to deciding the winner of Great British Innovations http://www.topbritishinnovations.org/PastInnovations/DiscoveryofPulsars.aspx
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    "Danny Alexander interview: after three years of cuts, Whitehall is still wasting your money" http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9949549/Danny-Alexander-interview-after-three-years-of-cuts-Whitehall-is-still-wasting-your-money.html
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited March 2013
    I doubt very much the Sun (Murdoch) will back Ukip. They like to back winners and Farage is likely to be unrepresented in the next HoC.

    That said the Sun and indeed the rest of the right wing press will flirt with Ukip as long as they dare before turning on them and then backing the Conservatives.

    Edit - Test - Passed.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    It appears to be Immigration Week - Clegg yesterday, Farage today and Cameron next week

    "David Cameron will next week make a speech on immigration in an effort to persuade voters that the Coalition is determined to deter Romanians and Bulgarians from coming next year. "

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/9949520/Romanian-immigrants-face-giving-fingerprints.html
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    UKIP will certainly have the most motivated vote. Top 2 is surely a certainty; top is quite feasible.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Ukip will target Labour as well as Tories in the May local elections:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-21908204








  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Good morning, everyone.

    Qualifying starts imminently.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    It would be unusual for the main opposition party not to win a national election some distance from the GE.

    It's clearly the last chance for the punters to give the government a good kicking before they have to make a real choice that matters the following year.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    @Morris_Dancer

    Does you avatar indicate an excess of chomping on Tesco horse burgers or are you in competition for hunting Scottish Liberal Democrats ??
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Can't knock his creativity...

    Man 'feigned heart attacks to get free lunches' http://soa.li/2JREaqh
  • Stodge2Stodge2 Posts: 2
    Morning all :)

    We'll know in a few days how many candidates UKIP are putting up and where.
  • Stodge2Stodge2 Posts: 2
    May be a very quiet day for horse racing fans. Doncaster off and Newbury doubtful.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    As PBers will know - I'm rather a fan of Obits - this one is just perfect.

    "Peter Scott, who has died aged 82, was a highly accomplished cat burglar, and as Britain’s most prolific plunderer of the great and good took particular pains to select his victims from the ranks of aristocrats, film stars and even royalty.

    According to a list of 100 names he supplied to The Daily Telegraph, he targeted figures such as Soraya Khashoggi, Shirley MacLaine, the Shah of Iran, Judy Garland and even Queen Elizabeth the Queen Mother — although he added apologetically that, in her case, the authorities had covered up by issuing a “D-notice ”.

    In 1994 Scott wrote to the newspaper to say that he would consider it “a massive disappointment if I were not to get a mention in [its] illustrious obituary column”. He explained that he derived much pleasure from reading accounts of the exploits of war heroes, adding: “I would like to think I would have fronted the Hun with the same enthusiasm as I did the fleshpots in Mayfair.” He added that he had been a Telegraph reader since 1957, when newspapers were first allowed in prisons, “on account of its broad coverage on crime”..." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/obituaries/9949054/Peter-Scott.html
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. W, that's me in the early stage of transformation into Morris-Ra, the Ever-Tipping.

    [NB for those unaware it's actually a small part of the Bane of Souls cover].
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,191
    @all

    Is there an easy way of tracking a discussion? It's not always clear who is replying to what.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    @Monksfield - not sure there is any discussion - its random quips and views so far.

    Generally we seem to be adding @yourname when we're replying in Vanilla.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349
    tim,

    "When will Cameron be dragged kicking and screaming to reverse his "closet racists" comment."

    Possibly at the same time as Rotherham council do?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    @Plato

    We should have known you most favoured burglar would be of the cat variety !!
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Newbury races off - Sky.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited March 2013
    I don't say this often - but a thoughtful Mail article on immigration from a Lefty who's changed his mind. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2297776/SATURDAY-ESSAY-Why-Left-epic-mistake-immigration.html Well worth 5 mins to read the whole piece.

    "Among Left-leaning ‘Hampstead’ liberals like me, there has long been what you might call a ‘discrimination assumption’ when it comes to the highly charged issue of immigration.

    Our instinctive reaction has been that Britain is a relentlessly racist country bent on thwarting the lives of ethnic minorities, that the only decent policy is to throw open our doors to all and that those with doubts about how we run our multi-racial society are guilty of prejudice. And that view — echoed in Whitehall, Westminster and town halls around the country — has been the prevailing ideology, setting the tone for the immigration debate.

    The fault lies with our leaders, not with the people who came for a better life. There has been a huge gap between our ruling elite's views and those of ordinary people on the street. But for some years, this has troubled me and, gradually, I have changed my mind.

    Over 18 months of touring the country to talk to people about their lives for a new book, I have discovered minority Britons thriving more than many liberals suppose possible. But I also saw the mess of division and conflict we have got ourselves into in other places.

    I am now convinced that public opinion is right and Britain has had too much immigration too quickly. For 30 years, the Left has blinded itself with sentiment about diversity. But we got it wrong..."

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Raining in Kuala Lumpur (Q2).
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    Ed Miliband needs to be careful in his economy speeches when talking about 'the people being made to pay' for the economic woes, as if under his leadership they won't have to pay.

    Whether the UK crash was caused by global forces, the banks or Brown's policies the people will still have to pay for it. And a brave politician would suggest why shouldn't we pay for it, when it was most of us who spent the five years prior to the crash spending money we hadn't earned yet.

    I know I did.
  • FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    edited March 2013
    Just because we all know Wee-Timmy likes this stuff:
    Sterling has advanced 1.2 percent in the past month, the second-best performer after the Australian dollar among 10 developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation- Weighted Indexes. The euro declined 1 percent and the dollar rose 0.8 percent.
    [Src.: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-23/pound-jumps-versus-euro-after-boe-retail-sales-damp-easing-bets.html ]

    A word of warning though: Markets tend to be volatile. Do not read too much into one day, week or month....
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    @JackW

    I've had a quadruped burglar in my fridge. I don't know who started it - but someone managed to get the door open - and then ate the contents. 3 macaroni cheese, a packet of roast chicken slices, 3 lots of bubble and squeak, a load of carrots and french beans, 2 boxes of mushrooms...

    I assume it was a cat that thought it was a good idea and the dogs joined in this midnight feast given the wide range of things devoured. The only things left were eggs and some sad looking leeks that really ought to have gone into the compost heap the week before.

    Little buggers
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    I know the "Like" function was divisive for some PBers but it did allow one to note a comment or a reply without having to add a further comment.

    Should "Vanila" be tweeked in this direction perhaps "Noted" might be used or perhaps at the risk of an "Ave it" avalanche we might have "smiley's" enabled ?
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349
    tim,

    As far as I'm aware, Rotherham council are an elected organisation and if they disagreed with the social workers' spokesperson, they would have said so. In fact, I believe that the Rotherham action was far more damaging to the individuals concerned than a few disparaging and generalised remarks.

    Can you see the difference?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    So true.

    RT @LauraNoonanIRL: "Are you a journalist?" taxi asks "Everybody here is journalist, you are waiting for our bankruptcy" #Cyprus
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    @Plato - LOL
  • Sean_FearSean_Fear Posts: 83
    While there certainly are Labour voters who can be targeted by UKIP, there aren't many Labour strongholds being fought on May 2nd. What I'd expect to see are a lot of close 3 -way contests between Con, Lib Dem and UKIP, across the South.

    Next year, I'd expect UKIP to top the poll, and quite likely win some council seats in places like Havering, Bexley, and Bromley.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349
    tim,

    We'll agree to differ on this, but here's a small challenge ... ask around (not just political anoraks) and see which was most memorable on a national scale.

    The media know what they're doing when they run "human interest" stories. That's why Ed (and Dave) have started using real stories to illustrate their points.

    Knockabout political debating is swiftly ignored by most.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Morning all ! Well at least NZ were bowled out in the test whilst I slept, which makes my book look slightly less grizzly than it did this time yesterday.

    So much snooow here too. It seems to have formed a covering on the duck hut , which is interesting as it is a wire 1" mesh or so, so you might expect snow to fall through into it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited March 2013
    @tim Can't the Gov't just look at the applications and decide... on an individual basis ?

    Mortgage providers discriminate all the time so I wouldn't see a problem in discriminating in the 'reverse' way.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Tony Parson's isn't impressed with EdM

    "It is to Labour’s eternal shame that the deal was done in Ed ­Miliband’s Westminster office. So if Miliband ever makes it all the way to 10 Downing Street, he has forsaken the right to criticise the dictators of the world.

    Don’t tell off China, Russia or Syria about freedom of speech, Ed. Don’t criticise Mugabe. You have lost the right to do all that, Ed..." http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/tony-parsons-free-press-leveson-1779811#.UU1t27SegQk.twitter
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @afneil: This morning the Financial Times joins the Times, Telegraph, Mail and Mirror groups in opposing the all-party Leveson compromise.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    @Scott_P

    George Parker was hinting at it the other night - good stuff, its appalling. Dangerous Dogs Act meets Ivan Lewis Journalist licenses.
  • mosesmoses Posts: 45
    Test
  • Test
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    @Tim

    Clegg and Milliband forced it through, Conservatives do not have a majority alone.

    Do you think Milliband acted wisely in this press regulation? Is this how he will function as PM?

    But most of all would you now agree with those of us here opposed to Levesons recommendations?
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    @tim

    But it's all because of Hugh Grant?!? Isn't it???

    Derpity derp derp.;^)
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    RT @Tent101: "@Ed_Miliband: There's still time if you want to ask me a question: http://t.co/MalDksUVhp" < whatever you do, don't troll this all day
  • Current weather likely to continue around 10C below normal for 10-20 days, and the global climate is cooling, not warming, as we head towards a new Dalton Minimum - even a Maunder Minimum.
    That being the case, ending all 'Green' energy subsidies would seem like A Good Idea, with as many coal-fired power stations are we require being re-opened.
    Societies boom when energy is cheap and plentiful, and die when the reverse applies.

    http://nextgrandminimum.wordpress.com/2013/02/03/sorry-global-warming-alarmists-the-earth-is-cooling/
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    I used to joke about global cooling but if the rigging of the climate data didn't just hide the flat-lining since 1998 but actually hid God having a massive joke on the Gaia-worshippers then things could start getting very sticky indeed. In theory Ukip are best poised to take advantage of that as an example of political class collusion and sameness but it's risky to bring the issue up politically because only a minority get their info from the interwebs while the majority were brain-washed on this issue at school or by the BBC over the last 15 years or so.

    So until the BBC comes out and admits on the telly-box that global warming flat-lined in 1998 it's tricky for politicians to tell the truth.

    If it is cooling rather than flat-lining then apart from the electoral consequences it's a bit of a shame about all those thousands of people who are going to freeze to death but oh well.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Plato:

    Thank you for raising a smile this snowy morning - after writing about a cat burglar to find yourself a victim of cats burglary and dogs guilty of receiving. Fridge locks (to make them childproof - is that good enough?) are available for less than a fiver.

    Does this mean a pets-imposed slimming campaign this weekend or are you snow free?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    "Across the spectrum there's an acceptance that pumping billions into state subsidised remortgaging,second homes and fuelling house price inflation while he waits for Carney to prime more general inflation is a policy of the defeated."

    This is correct, everything I read and everyone I've heard opposes Osborne's sub-prime lending scheme. Though I imagine those hoping to personally benefit might be supportive.

    For all the PR imitation of Thatcher's "the lady's not for turning" in recent weeks its clear that the government have U-turned and have given up any attempts to reduce borrowing and rebalance the economy.

    As many have stated before the 1970s seem to be replaying themselves.

    Perhaps it should be remembered that Antony Barber left parliament in 1974.

    I don't see a discredited George Osborne hanging about the backbenches too long.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Yesterday's YouGov poll showed that respondents favoured the home loans scheme 59:21. I suggest that some of our posters get out more and don't talk exclusively to people who share their own views.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited March 2013
    @AN1 - the Greenies are on their last legs in the mainstream politically. Energy prices are eye-watering and the prospect of gas rationing is on the frontpage of several national newspapers.

    I can't recall the last time that happened when the unions weren't inflicting it on us.

    When China's largest solar panel business goes bust - as have many others over the last few years - the writing is on the wall.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    "But it's all because of Hugh Grant?!? Isn't it???"

    I thought it was established it was Russian oligarchs? Or was that just a rumour?
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Pulpstar

    Yes, snow can bridge quite extra-ordinaary distances.

    Snow is wet and so is sticky. Metal is a better conductor of heat than air and so snowflakes first stick to the wire mesh, stay there and then further flakes stick to first flakes etc. I have seen quite big snow "bridges" across a crevasse in the Alps.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    antifrank

    That's a fair point but the public always favour the government giving people more money.

    I said on Thursday that the budget might work politically.

    Its certainly not going to work economically.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    @Financier

    LOL

    I've enough to make a sandwich and a couple of tins so shopping will wait until tomorrow - no snow just parky.

    I wouldn't mind - but they'd also scoffed 10x dog roll meat, dog mixer, leftovers, cat biscuits. They have hollow legs. I even put a half full box of cat biscuits on the mantlepiece to keep it temporarily out of reach as I tried to cook my tea and it was discovered/raided in 30 mins.

    Honestly - I can't carry my shopping in without it being intercepted by a furry between the taxi and my front door - the other week, I treated myself to a hot pastry and it was stolen from the carrier bag in the 30 secs it took me to plop the bag down at the front door and find my keys.
  • NoSpaceNameNoSpaceName Posts: 132
    edited March 2013
    @MrJones - Do you fancy a bet on whether the Arctic sea-ice will decline to a new minimum this year?

    While the UK is currently cold, the heat is instead melting sea-ice in Baffin Bay - temperatures were about 20C warmer than average there during the last week.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @another_richard This budget was always going to be a non-event economically. It's almost certainly a non-event politically too. I have been interested to see Labour frantically try to advertise one of the budget's most eye-catching giveaways. They must think they know what they're doing, but it looks like an odd strategy to me.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    My understanding is that 15 Tory MPs failed to back the press deal. I also believe that a substantially higher number of Labour MPs voted aginst the Iraq war.

    Yet on here, Labour is blamed for both.

    It really is a funny old world!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    @antifrank Labour care so much about the economy they don't want to see another unsustainable bubble created around this idea, even if it is popular politically. So Miliband has put country ahead of party on this one.
  • Through the month of February, the Arctic gained 766,000 square kilometers of ice (296,000 square miles), which is 38% higher than the 1979 to 2000 average for the month. Air temperatures at the 925 hPa level were 2 to 5 degrees Celsius (4 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than average across the Atlantic sector of the Arctic, especially near Iceland and in Baffin Bay. Temperatures were lower than average by 2 to 6 degrees Celsius (4 to 11 degrees Fahrenheit) north of Greenland and the Canadian Archipelago, and in the Beaufort, Chukchi and East Siberian seas, linked to anomalously low sea level pressure over Alaska and Canada.

    http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

    The Antarctic sea ice minimum extent appears to have passed. Ice was quite extensive throughout the austral summer period. Monthly average sea ice extent for February 2013 was 3.83 million square kilometers (1.48 million square miles) and minimum daily sea ice extent for the Antarctic region was 3.68 million square kilometers (1.42 million square miles) on February 20. Unusual circulation patterns, likely resulting from higher-than-average pressure in the Bellingshausen Sea, pushed sea ice in the northwestern Weddell Sea far to the north, as we mentioned in our February post. Extent was also well above average for the Ross Sea region relative to the entire 1979 to 2013 satellite record.
  • hucks67hucks67 Posts: 758
    UKIP will do well in EU elections, but not as well in a 2015 GE as currently predicted. When it gets nearer to the GE, they will have to explain policies which don't really relate to the EU or are not affected by the EU. I expect a good percentage of current UKIP VI to return to the normal parties they vote for, which will boost the Tory vote

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    RT @NickCohen4: "One law for Hello! and another for Angling Times." @FrancisWheen on what our Parliament of Dunces has done http://t.co/DcKRSKF98E
  • hucks67hucks67 Posts: 758
    !!!!!!Just as a warning on this site. Log on before you type a comment. If you type a comment and then click on comment as, then log on, your comment will be lost.!!!!!
  • NoSpaceNameNoSpaceName Posts: 132
    @AN1 - The yearly minimum in Arctic sea ice has declined faster than the yearly maximum. The result is that more sea-ice is gained during the autumn and winter.

    Would you care to bet on whether the Arctic sea-ice will reach a new minimum this year?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    OT If you liked Buffy et al - Grimm is a cop version along the same lines - am halfway through S1 and its pretty watchable.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    @NoSpaceName

    Nice and warm in the arctic then - perhaps we should send all the people who are going to freeze to death here over there?
  • hucks67hucks67 Posts: 758
    edited March 2013
    @NoSpaceName

    I have a theory about the weather. It is just random and is nothing to do with long term global warming that has been brought about by man. If you look back over the last 200 years, I suspect that you find extreme weather events, bad summers, bad winters etc. The ice caps are melting more than previously found, but global temperatures may get colder again at some point.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    "Yesterday's YouGov poll showed that respondents favoured the home loans scheme 59:21"

    That just shows how broke people are. It doesn't make trying to refloat the housing bubble a good idea.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    edited March 2013
    @antifrank - not sure that it is wrong to point out the gaping flaws in a government scheme, whether it is politically popular or not. Should very rich people start to get subsidies to buy second homes or to upgrade, you can bet your bottom dollar that the scheme will become less popular; just as it will should house prices decline. And it's also worth poiting out that EU law dictates this has to be money that is available to all EU citizens, which could be fun.

    One plus point for Labour is that government subsidies in the housing markety may well push up prices overall, so shifting more homes into the £2 million plus band and providing a bigger pool of possible mansion tax payers.
  • NoSpaceNameNoSpaceName Posts: 132
    hucks67 - You don't need to suspect anything, given that we have the disciplines of statistics and meteorology that provide the tools to find the answer.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Had to abandon walk halfway through a field. The snow was so deep the was having difficulties.
  • NoSpaceNameNoSpaceName Posts: 132
    @MrJones - If you're interested in a reasoned debate then I'll have one. If you're going to spout nonsense then I will sometimes call you out on it.

    What you just said was nonsense by the way.

    You appear to think that the globe is not warming. If you have the courage of your convictions you'd enter into a bet of some sort on it. I suspect you just believe what you read on websites and newspapers that tell you Greenies are bad people who want to tax you for no good reason.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    "it's also worth poiting out that EU law dictates this has to be money that is available to all EU citizens, which could be fun."

    Dear me I hadn't thought of that aspect.

    Dubious Romanians using it to buy holiday homes at the same time as the Chelsea bankers get subsidised Lithuanian nannies.

    Are Cameron and Osborne trying to drive every working class Conservative into voting UKIP?

  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    Simon Heffer in the Mail:- Blarites fear 5 years of Ed could keep labour out of power for a generation:-

    "Such is the strength of Blairites’ concerns about Messrs Miliband and Balls that I’m told that some would even prefer five more years of Mr Cameron in No 10. For they fear Mr Miliband could be so unpopular that Labour would be out of power for years after.

    I suspect they are right. Clearly Mr Miliband wants something like a Ministry of Truth to ‘guide’ the Press, while Mr Balls would borrow incontinently and turn Britain into an economic basket-case like Greece."


    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2297743/The-spectre-Red-Eds-Thought-Police.html#ixzz2OMApo34g
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Richard, if that's the case then better to just axe the policy now. It'd mean a big hit, but better to lose a finger than a limb.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    The world may well be warming, its going to be of cold comfort to people without heating though when through the twin headed chimera of fuel privatisation coupled with incorrect incentives the lights and heat go out. On the plus side if the lights really do go out I may get to see a proper night sky..
  • hucks67hucks67 Posts: 758
    SouthamObserver
    10:06AM

    "Yet on here, Labour is blamed for both."

    But PB is a Tory stronghold where some of the usual suspects have been posting for years and they see it as their site.
  • "I suspect you just believe what you read on websites and newspapers that tell you Greenies are bad people who want to tax you for no good reason. "

    No, Greenies are just the gullible, naive idiots, used by unscrupulous and wilfully ignorant politicians to increase the taxes they inflict and impose on the rest of us and provide a propaganda-rich justification for doing so.

    Sanity requires the cheapest energy possible - the impact of the UK's 1% of the global population on the Earth's climate is too small to be measured - even if we returned to the Stone Age (beware - methane is more powerful than CO2)
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited March 2013
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    @NOSpaceName
    "If you're interested in a reasoned debate then I'll have one."

    Global warming flat-lined in 1998. Even the BBC admits it but only tucked away in a corner of their website.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/

    The data-rigging explicitly admitted to in the 10s of thousands of climategate emails was aimed at hiding that flat-lining. *If* that data-rigging in advertently did more that that. *If* it has hidden a cooling instead of flat-lining then this country is even more ****ed than it was already by the economic suicide bill.
  • NoSpaceNameNoSpaceName Posts: 132
    In UK temperature terms is March 2013 more unusual than March 2012?

    A question for people to ponder. What do you think/feel/guess the answer is?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    LOL

    RT @DavidWooding: Love this Mandelson quote: "Can't quite remember which member of govt claimed to have abolished boom and bust. Well, we abolished boom."
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Name, didn't we have a warm (drought, even) start to last year? I'd guess based on temperature alone that would be more of a divergence from the norm.

    The snow's more disruptive, though. It's a pain in the arse to clear it, and walking the hound is more difficult when the usual sort of route is too deep with snow for him to walk in.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,232
    'Simon Heffer in the Mail:- Blarites fear 5 years of Ed could keep labour out of power for a generation...'

    The accompanying photo looks terrible - little Ed melting, coy smile and all, before the gaze of his fop master.
  • NoSpaceNameNoSpaceName Posts: 132
    @Pulpstar - I can definitely agree that energy policy in this country is a mess.

    I would rather there had been a debate on that for some of the last 10-15 years or so - and then actually done something effective - then the sham debate of whether global warming is happening or not.
  • NoSpaceName
    Arctic sea ice was much, much lower than today in Viking times - hence their naming and colonisation of Greenland.
    It's just random - and largely caused by variations in Solar Output and long-term oscillations in ocean currents, the triggers for which we do not understand.

    In short, keeping a coal-fired power station (or 20) open in the UK won't make any difference whatsoever.

    Furthermore, polar bear populations are rising, not falling (save in one area: which gets the publicity?) and if the fabled North West passage was again opened to shipping (it seems to have been, back in centuries past) global trade would increase and we'd all be a tiny bit better off.

    Given the economic mess we're in, mind, that's chaff to a drowning man with a millstone round his neck.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    A UKIP Euro-win looks perfectly plausible at the moment, though a year is a long time to sit on a 2-1 bet.

    Mike writes: "One thing we are learning from Vanilla is that a sizeable part of PBs audience do not follow the comment threads." - I can well believe that, but why is it apparent from Vanilla (genuine question)? As Plato says, we aren't having much coherent discussion - I think we're seeing that although the Reply option was messing up New Disqus sequencing, not having a Reply function just kills debate. Even if people indicate who they're replying to, hunting for the original (available with an immediate link in Disqus) so one can track the argument is too tedious.

    What we now have is the equivalent of a house that was rented by an artist after the estate agent has been around to tidy it up. The semi-organised chaos has been replaced by a pleasingly orderly arrangement - but a sterile one.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    @NoSpaceName

    What do youthink/feel/guess is the answer to why the BBC admits global warming flat-lined in 1998 but only tucked away in a corner of their website?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/posts/Global-warming-The-missing-energy
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    @hucks67

    So blinded by partisan prejudice are some posters on here that they seriously believe the press deal done earlier this week is all the fault of Labour and the LibDems, even though only 15 Tory MPs did not support it. If every Labour MP had voted against, it still would have passed. But somehow it is all Labour's fault. Wonderful stuff!
  • NoSpaceNameNoSpaceName Posts: 132
    @MrJones - You have been misled. The climategate emails did not uncover any hiding of the decline of recent temperatures - it was something to do with a decline in the tree-ring proxy record which did not match the increase in temperatures seen with thermometers.

    This is a problem for people who use tree rings as a proxy for past temperatures before we have thermometer measurements, but it's not an issue for the recent temperature trend.

    The recent temperature trend is positive, but there is enough noise in the year to year values that it is never a statistically significant trend over short time periods.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    @MrJones - that would be as opposed to every other media outlet giving it prominent and ceaseless coverage.
  • FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    @AN1

    http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/1314/#Comment_1314

    I don't think most of our resident leftards have realised that the Earth wobbles around it's axis. Add to which solar-flares and Pacific weather patterns are their latest gotta-get fashion accessories...!

    Explaining to people that things change on a [sub-] daily basis is difficult enough. Trying to explain that these events may, or may not, indicate a long-term trend is pointless. As a tip - as I don not recognise your "handle" - wait for Mark Senior to post a bet and then accept; free-money...!

    :muppets:
  • NoSpaceName
    On the contrary, the global temperatures recorded by NASA (ie the best and most accurate ever recorded) show no rise since 1998, and a small decline over that period.

    The previous 200 years or so show periods of warming and cooling, with particularly cold winters in 1912 (S pole); 1941/2 (Russia); 1947 (Europe); 1962/3 and 1981/2 (UK).

    Now that the myth of global warming has been well and truly debunked, it takes, it seems, even longer for The True Believers to grasp that their god was false.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    @SouthamObserver

    "they seriously believe the press deal done earlier this week is all the fault of Labour and the LibDems"

    Who pushed for Leveson?

    Who used Leveson to stir up the feeling that the newspapers should be punished for stuff like the Milly Dowler story - already illegal - and then leveraged that public sympathy to wangle the principle of state control of the press through the door?

    The Tories being useless doesn't disguise who was driving the process.
  • RicardohosRicardohos Posts: 258
    edited March 2013
    NoName, not sure what your question is driving at but March 2012 was relatively warm, followed by a very cold April. This month is extremely cold and threatening to come close to March 1962 at the rate it's going.

    The Met Office use the 1961-1990 baseline for comparisons, which happens to have been one of the coldest 30 year means around. They claim this is because it's the global standard, which isn't true. Coincidentally a lot of MetOffice employees are pro-AGW funded, including a good friend of mine.

    Anyway, against the CET which is the longest running temperature series in the world there's little empirical doubt that there's a cooling trend over the last 5 or 6 years. Whether that's a blip remains to be seen, but if you think human impact on the gas which makes up just 0.38% of the earth's atmosphere is going to affect global climate then you're welcome to the view. Ever since I read the full IIRC report on the day it was published I began to doubt my previous AGW views. Why? Because it was immediately obvious to me that this wasn't proper science, but polemicised at best, scaremongering at worst.

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/download.html
    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

    Not really sure what this has to do with UKIP but if they wanted to propose that the whole global warming debate has been one massive hyped up con, involving huge wastage of public money, obfuscation and downright lies ... they'd have a case.
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    edited March 2013
    @NickP

    You can reply by linking the time, but it's still not 'fluent'. I reckon a reply function may come along with tinkering.

    The other thing for me - as feedback, not a grumble - is the amount of white space/font size etc (the new disqus was bad for that as well). I can only see 2/3 'average' comments on screen at a time, which means it's harder to follow, and 'scrollier'.

    My ideal would be ye olde version that we got a memory lane jaunt on during the switchover, but with reply*. But I know that wasn't manageable.

    *and without the emoticons...
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    @MrJones - I believe Leveson was set up by this country's Conservative Prime Minister.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Simon Heffer in the Mail:- Blarites fear 5 years of Ed could keep labour out of power for a generation:-

    "Such is the strength of Blairites’ concerns about Messrs Miliband and Balls that I’m told that some would even prefer five more years of Mr Cameron in No 10. For they fear Mr Miliband could be so unpopular that Labour would be out of power for years after.

    That's exactly what I have been saying for the last six months. I've also said that while UKIP are gowing nicely there time will be 2020.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    "Not really sure what this has to do with UKIP"

    I'm guessing Ukip sympathizers will have a dramatically different split on belief/disbelief over global warming so in theory it might be worth them taking a punt but it's tricky because (i assume) the majority still believe the hype - especially pretty much everyone under 30 from being brain-washed at school or under 35 if they went to uni.
This discussion has been closed.