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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » My best political bet of 2013 – the 14-1 “certainty”
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » My best political bet of 2013 – the 14-1 “certainty”
The other polling from LordAshcroft and Populus did not list Stupple separately but it was possible to work out from those that were listed that he was doing particularly well.
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One lucky feline got a shiny new cardboard box.
For the non-punter, OGH's key phrase is "near certainty" -- which Obama certainly was not.
The more likely an event is to occur, the more you can stake because there is less chance of losing. Many professional punters, and almost all of the far larger players in the financial and stock markets, spend most of their time making vast bets on near-certainties at very short prices.
If an event pays 1/100 so you win a penny for every pound staked, you might not bother walking down to the betting shop to hand over £10 -- the 10p you'd win would not pay for the shoe leather. But £10,000 would win you £100 for five minutes' work which is not bad for a punter, and the City boys and girls are playing in millions and even billions.
One other advantage of playing at shorter odds is that you can get more on because the layers will stand up to you rather than limit your stakes. Partly this is due to shrewdies who got the 50/1 against Obama taking their profits by laying off or cashing out.
1) People tend to be too generous to favourites a long way out, because they fail to see things coming in from left-field (things like George Galloway, for example).
2) People tend to throw money away on no-hopers at the last minute, especially if they were once in serious contention, because both sides will pretend the race is closer than it really is to try to motivate their supporters, and the media play along because nail-biters make a better story.
If we ever have a European referendum. I suspect Ukip will find the campaign a massive anticlimax.
At the moment, I'd prefer us to stay in but with changes.
In 1975, I was very pro-Europe, yet even I was embarrassed by the one-sided nature of the debate. The BBC, for once, gave up all pretence of being balanced and were blatantly on our side. Dissenting voice were sniggered at. I voted against on principle but I was glad we won (I was younger then).
I can't see why it will be any different now.
And perhaps OGH should be known as OCC - Old Clever Clogs.
As an aside, is there anybody else on here foolish enough to be in the office this chilly festive morn?
Merry Christmas :-)
My best bet of 2014 is also with Hills: Also less than EVS, but not by much.
I managed to get 100 GBP on before they closed down that market. If I'd had more cash available that day then I'd have got at least 1000 GBP on that.
As a long suffering LFC fan, I find myself with somewhat of a nose-bleed this morning.
Here's hoping that Arsenal and Chelsea can knock the stuffing out of each other in a goal fest score draw this evening.
As an aside, is there anybody else on here foolish enough to be in the office this chilly festive morn?
Merry Christmas :-)
Yes, you're not the only person in the office today! Merry Christmas to you too
Both tipped by Mike.
Thank you.
Congrats on the winning tip, Mr. Smithson. May we all enjoy many more in 2014.
The whole cricket world is at it, Jack.
Graeme Swann in Melbourne after announcing his retirement:
"Some people playing the game at the minute have no idea how far up their own backsides they are."
City and Chelsea away.
We'll be out of the top four by Sunday.
Yet large parts of the media seemed to be rather pro-Euro, and some of the insults thrown at the anti-Euro people were rather nasty at times.
But that was just my opinion: perhaps the pro-Euro camp felt similarly.
Congratulations to everyone who has had winning bets, and indeed to everyone who bets - you're braver than me!
I didn't tip the winner for the first time in a few years.
But made a decent profit overall.
ATD as top male from 8/15 to 1/10 was a great trading bet.
Ditto laying Ms Ellis-Bextor and Miss Reid halfway through also was a great strategy.
3) punters following their hearts -- normally characterised as rich Tories shortening the odds against the blue team;
4) parties trying the Freud gambit -- backing their own candidates in order to create media coverage and hearten supporters
To test EiT's hypothesis, data is clearly needed and could easily be collected in real time but historical data might be available from Betfair, or from pb luminaries with connections to bookmakers or odds comparison sites.
I can't see us not scoring against either team. Then again, I can't see us not conceding either.
My optimist hat says that we'll get a point from each.
Arsenal outplayed us this season and were spanked 6-3 by City.
I foresee a similar outcome, I have doubts about our defence.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25488259
John Lewis' chap sounds quite sensible.
As for 2013 political betting has been quiet for moi compared to the orgy of opportunity in the previous years US elections.
Tennis has been a rip roarer though. In particular Nadal at the French and US Opens. Mrs JackW has been raiding the nations shoe shops on the proceeds .... C'est la vie
Chelsea are good but just don't seem to be as much of a threat up front.
http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17457289.2011.629727?journalCode=fbep20#.Urf8-LDuOcw
Cached draft paper here:
http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:Kah9JxYeOJQJ:www.essex.ac.uk/government/epop/Papers/Panel29/P29_Wall_EPOP2010.pdf+&cd=8&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=uk
Vince has boxed himself into a position where he can't take any credit for the economic recovery and now just as immigration nears the top of voters concerns he flies in the face of public opinion with silly comments about Cam being like Enoch Powell.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/5340700/Vince-Cable-blasted-after-likening-PMs-stance-to-Enoch-Powell-race-rant.html
At what point does Clegg put him out of his shooting himself in the foot misery ?
He is no longer a serious leadership rival but perhaps is becoming a drag on the LD ticket.
I have always found Jacks ARSe more reliable than Farages finger in the wind!
A true socialist would try to eradicate the inequality by merging the two.
In the interests of balance,will we have a thread about a near certain bet losing out?
What do I win...?
We shall see but I am optimistic despite some pretty ordinary figures last week.
BTW, remember that white stuff that was supposed to be a distant memory? It seems to be over my car and grass this morning.
Fits in with my experience on predictious, where some fool was selling the Dem for VA gov in the high 70s despite a 7% polling lead. Or some other fool kept selling Tokyo as Olympic city in the low 70s despite all the sensible observers saying it was a shoo-in. (Hang on, that second one was me...)
More subtly, of course, you can also go broke even if your bet is value.
Lord Ashcroft@LordAshcroft17m
A New Year treat to look forward to: my latest Project Blueprint polling on prospects for a Tory majority. Sign up at http://bit.ly/17zmETt
Almost two thirds of people in Wales predict the nation’s education system will stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months, according to an exclusive poll carried out for WalesOnline.
Of those surveyed by YouGov, a total of 35% described the current state of education in Wales as “bad” and just 21% expected improvement in the next year.
Overall, 61% thought educational standards would stagnate or get worse over the same period and 18% said they did not know what to expect.
http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/poll-reveals-nearly-two-thirds-6439960
Your bet with tim is looking good.
The November Public Finances figures were not as bad as the headline figures suggest as can be seen from the OBR's commentary on the ONS bulletin:
Receipts
Central government accrued receipts rose by £1.8 billion or 4.6 per cent in November compared to a year earlier. Receipts growth was broad-based, with growth recorded in income tax and NICs, VAT and stamp duties. Receipts of stamp duty land tax were particularly strong, up 28 per cent on a year earlier.
Expenditure
Central government current expenditure was £1.0 billion less than in November last year, mainly because of falls in net social benefits and other current spending. The £0.8 billion reduction in other current spending includes an overall £2.3 billion fall in grants from central government to local authorities, as a result of the large timing differences in the payment of these grants this year, which is partly offset by increases in overseas grant payments made by DfID, and other spending.
Investment
Central government capital spending was £0.7 billion higher than a year ago.
So what caused the Nov 2013 over Nov 2012 rise in borrowing? This is again made clear by Chote:
Local Government
This year, PSNB in November was higher than last year mainly because higher borrowing by local authorities more than offset lower borrowing by central government. This is related to the different timing of grants to local authorities compared with a year earlier.
Local government expenditure and borrowing is somewhat opaque in both the ONS and OBR bulletins. There has been a major change in phasing from previous years, which up to now the OBR has been suggesting was front loaded, meaning that the second half of F/Y 2013-14 should benefit.
Chote is still claiming this effect will apply but where the monthly rise in local government borrowing of £3.1 bn came from appears to be a mystery. I guess it is a one off figure rather than a continuing trend, hence OBR's optimistic forecasts of year end outcomes.
In many Islamic countries that I visit, in the hotels alcohol is served to non-Muslims by Muslims. Another case of being too PC mad again?
Congrats to Mike for the spot, and being able to get much on such an obscure market. Getting on is more difficult than picking the winners these days... And neither is easy!
I'm still not sure whether it was a wise bet, but it was a winning bet.
I agree, there is something to be admired I think, in the way they consider each employees interests, and it no doubt is reflected in the staffs attitude
Another excuse to exercise control over people's lives by petty officials who were put there to serve the people, not rule them!!
Perhaps Southampton will rename itself as Stasiland.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2528086/Now-lessons-bins-Dustmen-refuse-lids-wont-close-controversial-new-rules.html
Hooray for capitalism..
I sincerely wish you get a new life !! This one is just too sad for you.
If you start from the perspective that you are going to try to meet staff's wishes wherever possible rather than from the perspective that you are going to make them do whatever you want them to do, you will form policies like this. If it makes no difference to the customer and you can run your business efficiently accommodating their wishes, there's no problem.
Here the policy had been allowed to affect customers. That was the mistake, and M&S seem to recognise it.
At least Avery is only a spoof (I think!), you appear to be real.......
I agree SO. It has been very warm here, frequently over 10C when you would expect it to be pretty close to zero.
But it's suitably festive today. Merry Christmas.
"We've got three people out with the flu and it's Christmas rush - can you do the register just for today, Ahmed?"
"Sorry, if my mum saw me selling alcohol she'd moaning about it for weeks, that's why you put me in the bakery."
"OK, we'll do what we do with under-18s. Just call a superviser if anyone wants to buy alcohol and they'll put it though. Hopefully Darren will be in by lunchtime and he can take over then."
But I do hope you have a wide chimney.
The last time I looked at Santa he seemed a bit burly to me.
The next election is going to be one of the more important for a while. Five years of sanity simply cannot put good 13 years (10 in reality since he copied Clarke originally) of madness. We simply cannot afford a Labour government at this point. They are not just for Christmas and they are just too expensive.
I fear you are muddling M&S with the BBC.
Can we petition for a longer sentence?
As usual a load of hoo-haa about an isolated incident.Irritatingly predictable.
There are 2 golden rules in banking:
1. Look at the customer, not the asset
2. Borrow long and lend short
NR & B&B broke them both...
I look forward to the Lawson family revenge in the New Year. Dominic came out firing in the ST yesterday. Mr Saatchi may come to regret this.
My best bet settlement of the year in terms of profit was actually an oddity on HS2 being approved before various other options, which Ladbrokes settled some time around May - jolly sporting of them. South Shields was pretty decent; I had five bets on it, four of which were winners. More recently, tim, late of this parish, made a useful contribution when he settled a bet on free schools. The German election was quite a good one; I got on the Grand coalition at around 2/1 thanks to a post by Nick Palmer. I haven't had many big losers this year, although I did bet on the LibDems getting 14% or more in a YouGov poll by the end of the year, which is one to chalk down to experience.
Then take away 18 days for 'overcrowding'. Then he will probably be allowed out for christmas.
I'm going for 26 days behind bars.
Richard Littlejohn, a columnist who I disagree with ALOT pretty much nails it in this article: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2323988/Chris-Huhne-Vicky-Pryce-When-did-8-month-jail-sentence-8-weeks-Asks-Richard-Littlejohn.html
Or did you take that ludicrous 9-1 that Hills offered on Lab Maj right after the election and green up on that :P >?
More recently I've been laying Con Maj to some extent and backing Con in various individual seats. Obviously that's not a perfect match, but it's a good proxy: hard to see Con Maj without Conservative holds in seats like Kingswood, Hastings and Rye, etc, as we've discussed before.
Edit: I took Wm Hill's Lab Maj immediately after the last election at a super-duper 9/1. Unfortunately they'd only let me have a few quid, but it all helps...
The best value bet of the year was the one that only seanT took (and not out of kindness): Marque Senile's claim that the Greek economy would out-grow the UK in 2013 (which, for sure, we have to wait until late FY2013/14-Q4 for confirmation) shows how the unscrupulous will always benefit - freely - from the gullible. Well done Sean!
That's the tag to thee and me.
Which eejit came up with the idea of stripping an Englishman of his/her nationality?* Anyone betting on Tessa May becoming a leader of a party should consider the idiocy of such a policy....
* Anything prior to 'The Glorious Revolution' should be discounted....
"Some investors still keep a portion of their money in British and American stocks, although companies listed in Scotland – independent since 2016 – are largely shunned."
"Do you have an unused chequebook lying around at the back of a drawer? Treasure it, if so.
In 2024 there is a thriving market in one type of financial collectable – the chequebook. Since cheques were scrapped in 2017 they have served no purpose other than as interesting and increasingly rare relics, for which some collectors will pay handsomely.
Most sought after are unused chequebooks issued by former British banking brands such as Lloyds or Barclays, now both trading under the name of their parent group, the Bank of Nigeria."
"Today, almost 60pc of payments are made via mobile phones.
This take-up was faster than expected, given that Britain’s first concerted mobile payments project – where customers’ phone numbers were linked to their bank accounts to facilitate payments – was rolled out in the early months of 2014 .
Former bank branches now make some of the most desirable homes in market towns and villages. But no one dreams of counter service.
With Tesco being Britain’s biggest bank, those few customers who do need to make cash deposits or withdrawals tend to use the in-store checkouts, or transact at their door when their delivery arrives.
A decade ago, at the beginning of 2014, there were 9,500 bank branches. Go back 30 years, to 1994, and there were almost 18,000. "
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/10531374/Our-predictions-for-2014-How-about-2024....html
Where I agree is that I want to live in an abandoned bank.
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-29741251.html
I suppose it makes a change from trendy wine bars.
Oil giant is to start a sale of up to $30bn (£18bn) of assets next year after weak refining margins and oil theft in Nigeria caused a sharp fall in profits
Assets on the chopping block include a $7bn stake in Woodside Petroleum, Australia’s second largest oil and gas producer; oil assets in the Niger Delta worth $2bn; and other assets totalling $20bn, according to oil and gas analysts from JP Morgan Cazenove.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/10533740/Shell-to-sell-off-18bn-in-assets-after-profits-tumble.html
I have been involved in lots of trials and in all of them the issue of the credibility of the witnesses is - to a greater or lesser extent - an issue, as it needs to be if the defendants are to have a fair trial. This last point seems to have been forgotten in all the brouhaha concocted by those who seem to think that grand people - or those who think themselves grand - should not be subject to the same laws as everyone else.