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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Christmas Game: Part I
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Christmas Game: Part I
Many thanks to Harry Hayfield, for providing the fun for Christmas Day on PB.
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Please spare a thought for Saint Anastasia as it is her Day today too. Does anyone celebrate Her Day?
Constituency 2 looks like one of the upper Welsh Valleys, looking at the geography. Perhaps Methyr?
Can I ask PBers to think about the immortal man who came from the Heavens to save humanity, for he is what Christmas Day is all about.
He died for humanity, he was granted a resurrection, to keep on saving humanity over and over again.
Today his followers are mocked, but we don't care.
I urge all PBers to take an hour out of the day today, and think about this special, special man, and watch The Doctor, in the Doctor Who Christmas Special on BBC 1 at 7.30pm
My own easy challenge which 2 teams meet on Boxing Day with an identical goal difference, goals scored and goals conceded, yet one has won 9 games the other just 3...
Thanks to Harry Hayfield for doing this. To those of you who have joined in with the Xword in previous years, apologies that I have not got round to doing one this year.
Here's one clue anyway.
Ordered men to kiss him better (4,8)
I also thought it was France, sans the Cherbourg peninsular. Brittany is very prominent! LOL
What a green and pleasant land it looks- from a distance.
Turkey in the oven, and a new atlas to pore over. What more could a fellow want?
Al Ferof (7-2). Probably the most unexposed runner in the field and stable jockey Daryl Jacob has chosen him over Silviniaco Conti. Former winner of Supreme Novices Hurdle at the festival. Convincing off 159 in the Paddy Power a year ago, he missed the rest of the season before recording a bloodless victory over French Opera at Ascot on his return. The runner up ran well at Cheltenham subsequently. He's never gone 3m but his pedigree says that he should get it. Undoubtedly has a chance but 7-2 seems short enough to me.
Champion Court (25-1). Honest type who ran well in this last year before the petrol ran out in the straight, finishing 4th. Beaten favourite in the Paddy Power and beaten by Riverside Theatre in the Peterborough Chase since. No reason to suspect he can win here.
Cue Card (3-1). Horse of a lifetime for his owner and family stable. Showed his enormous potential when hosing up in the Champion Bumper and has done little wrong in the years since. Unlucky to be in the same generation as Sprinter Sacre as a novice. Left his debut at Exeter behind when winning a strong renewal of the Betfair Chase, beating quite a few of today's rivals. One of his few disappointments in this race last year though when held up and clattered the first two fences. Only chink is his stamina in this deep ground. Haydock was his first win at 3 miles, and whilst he was going away at the finish, that was better ground than he will get here. He's best striding on and there has to be a risk that the petrol may run out. Worthy favourite.
Dynaste (10-3). Top novice last season when winning the Feltham over C&D, but came up short over 2.5 at the Festival. I really fancied him for the Betfair, but he seemed to be beaten fair and square by Cue Card, albeit finishing clear second. He has a chance, but the Pipes would have had him fit, and I can't really see why he would reverse the form.
Long Run (10-1). Tens about winner of 2 of the last 3 runnings seems big, but although still a young horse, he has shown signs of deterioration over the last 12 months, running poorly this season at Wetherby and Haydock, where beaten by 3 of todays rivals. He shows signs of being one of those precocious French breds that doesn't sustain its form. His amateur jockey comes in for much unwarranted criticism; don't let him put you off. These days he looks like a dour stayer and if they go mad in deep ground he may just be there picking them off in the straight.
Mount Belbulben (12-1). Irish raider who is suited by going right handed. Winner of the big novice chase at the Punchestown Festival, but his jumping can be ropy and unseated at Down Royal on his reappearance. He has some scope to improve and it wouldn't be completely unlikely if he ran into a place. I'd like a bigger price than 12's in this field though.
Riverside Theatre (20-1). Owned by Jimmy Nesbitt and has given him plenty of fun. Has all sorts of quirks. Travels badly, can jump badly but has an amazing knack of getting there at the business end, as when winning the Ryanair and recently mugging Champion Court on the run in of the Peterborough Chase. That tells us he's back in some sort of form, and he's another that might be running on at the end. But on balance hard to see him as the winner.
Silviniaco Conti (9-2). Can be a slightly in and out performer but very useful on his day, and it would have been a tough call for Jacob to desert him for Al Ferof. Did nothing wrong last season until falling at the third last in the Gold Cup, when appearing to be going as well as anything. Third in the Betfair on his reappearance, behind Cue Card and Dynaste, but many of Paul Nicholls' have improved for a run this season, and I expect him to get closer. Right handed course should not be a problem.
Verdict - The ground is going to be testing, a very different prospect to Haydock. The market looks about right - it's hard to see anything that's significantly overpriced, although if Long Run were to drift to the 14-16 range, he would become an ew proposition. If Cue Card doesn't race too ebulliently he could win this well, but the ground makes me want to oppose with a confirmed stayer. I will be backing Silviniaco Conti.
Please allow me to share this joke with you:
A Brummie goes for a job interview wearing a polyester shirt, bright flares and big boots.
The interviewer says "All you need now is a kipper tie.
"The Brummie replies, "That would be love-lay, two sugars, ploise."
It's the way I tell 'em!
Dr Who? Isn't that a kiddies' programme? I lost interest when they got rid of William Hartnell.
God, I'm bored.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BcL27jGCYAA9ONu.png
Well, it works for me!
Regarding atlases, my pride and joy is the Colonel Cobb railway atlas of GB showing all railways built and closed by c.1995 superimposed on OS mapping from the 1970s.
Unfortunately it was only a limited print run.
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Railways-Great-Britain-Cobb-Col/dp/0711030022
HOLY SHIT THERES A WHITE MAN COMING DOWN MY CHIMNEY
Retweeted by Noah Shachtman