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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At last news a survey on EU2014 – next May’s national cont
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At last news a survey on EU2014 – next May’s national contest that nobody seems to want to poll
On May 22nd next year the whole of the UK will be voting in the elections for the European Parliament yet there’s been very little media coverage and almost no polling. Whilst we have eight or nine Westminster VI polls a week you had until tonight to go back until early October to find the last EP2014 survey.
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Also, hope everyone had a good Christmas, I went to Rome for a few days beforehand and managed to catch the Pope's Sunday address in St Peter's Square
Also, the Daily Star commissioning polling?
This gives me the perfect excuse to visit the Daily Star website.
Newspapers have a finite budget for polling, and in 2014, whatever the outcome, the IndyRef, is the definitive polling event of 2014, not the Euros.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/blair-ally-patrick-diamond-tells-ed-miliband-cost-of-living-will-not-win-labour-the-2015-election-9026233.html
Well actually LD win would be worst result but pigs will fly if that happens
From May this year
Rallings & Thrasher data for today’s Sunday Times which has the pair’s own national equivalent vote share projections based on their detailed analysis of the outcome on Thursday. This has CON 26%, LAB 29%, LD 13%, Ukip 22%
http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/05/05/exactly-two-years-to-the-day-after-the-av-referendum-this-is-how-rallings-and-thrasher-project-ge2015/
2. The local election results are normalised to minimise bias.
The research, which explores the reasons behind the precipitous drop in voter turnout – particularly among under-30s – finds that it is anger with the political class and broken promises made by high-profile figures that most rile voters, rather than boredom with Westminster.
Asked for the single word best describing "how or what you instinctively feel" about politics and politicians in general, 47% of respondents answered "angry", against 25% who said they were chiefly "bored".
Negative sentiments vastly outnumber positive, with only 16% reporting feeling "respectful" towards people doing a difficult job, while a vanishingly small proportion of 2% claim to feel "inspired".
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/dec/26/fury-mps-not-voting-poll
A series of yellow boxes to celebrate. This time derived from the SWIFT Index which has proved this year to be one of the most accurate forecasters of GDP growth.
SWIFT bases its forecasts on an analysis of aggregate SWIFT payments, so it has an early insight into mainly Business to Business payment traffic with a strong skew towards international payments.
The SWIFTIndex model makes three forecast predictions for the Quarter following the current quarter and three 'nowcast' predictions for the current Quarter. It's last prediction comes a few days before the ONS (in the UK) announces its 'First Estimate' of GDP for the prior quarter.
The model uses supplementary data released by the ONS to produce the final of its three 'nowcast' forecasts. This can lead to a substantial change between Nowcast 2 & 3 as happened in the UK in Q2 2013.
SWIFT produce GDP forecasts for the UK, Germany, US, OECD (Total) and Europe (EU 28).
Following the change in forecasts through the three forecasts and nowcasts is a good way to pick trends in confidence. The current quarter, for example, is showing declines in rates of GDP growth in all countries and aggregates.
So, at this stage, the prospects for Q4 2013 growth in the UK matching the 0.8% recorded for Q3 are declining.
The boxes for each measure will follow this post.
***************************United Kingdom************************
*******************************Germany***************************
George Osborne.
As someone who helped in one yesterday, I am struggling to describe IDS without getting banned from here. Two words. Total bastard.
****************************United States************************
Avery LP, wonder why the Red Cross is distributing parcels if the country is doing so well. Yes the UK is booming, depending what your tax code is.
*****************************OECD Total**************************
****************************Europe (EU 28)***********************
I hope you haven't been short changed this year.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25108891
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/326c359c-5857-11e3-985e-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2ocFphgzj
It's a question of mind over matter,
The poor don't matter, and IDS doesn't mind
You bet.
I will post the full details seeing as you didnt:
Are rumours that The Trussell Trust was founded by Conservative councillor Noel Atkins true? Is The Trussell Trust affiliated to the Conservative party?
There are some misleading blogs circulating online that suggest that The Trussell Trust is in some way affiliated to the Conservative Party, which is completely untrue: The Trussell Trust is an a-political charity that receives no government funding.
A former trustee was a Conservative councillor but he was not a founding member (he was in post from 2007 – 2012) and his role as councillor was entirely separate to his role as trustee at The Trussell Trust. The Trussell Trust’s Executive Chairman, Chris Mould, is a member of the Labour Party but this does not mean that The Trussell Trust is affiliated to the Labour Party either. Trustees are appointed to govern charities and have an individual as well as collective responsibility to exercise proper independence in their discharge of those duties – i.e they cannot allow personal political or professional connections to guide them when carrying out duties as trustees.
On the bright side, the majority of time it leaves the Tories arguing with Kippers. Very entertaining.
Rather than calling IDS a 'total bastard'. You should be thanking us for clearing up the mess that the left inevitably leaves behind.
The D Star/Survation that has tonight's EP2014 figures also had Westminster voting intention
CON 29
LAB 36
LD 9
UKP 18
Fieldwork end Nov
Which by my reckoning the changes from the last Survation poll in October are
Con nc
Lab +1
LD -3
UKIP +1
They are a bleed to the GDP figures, who spend all their life on welfare and give nothing to society?
OOhh I am feeling all Osborne.
I hold the Trussell Trust in the highest regard and fully appreciate all the charitable work they are doing through their food banks.
Indeed, after my Aunt told me on Christmas Day that some of the food banks stock Ferrero Rocher, I have even undertaken to visit them in person.
I can think of no higher endorsement from a Tory.
Unless you're saying that Labour share no blame whatsoever?
Rich-poor gap 'has widened under Blair'
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2004/aug/02/socialexclusion.politics
Or from 2009
Gap between rich and poor has widened under Labour
The gap between the richest and poorest in society has widened since Labour came to power in 1997, according to a new study from the Joseph Rowntree Foundation.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/4799689/Gap-between-rich-and-poor-has-widened-under-Labour.html
Or from 2010
Rich-poor divide 'wider than 40 years ago'
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8481534.stm
But hey, who gives a toss about these people who use the foodbank, because it is not you.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/dec/26/voter-apathy-manchester-john-harris
Perhaps IDS doesn't like Ferrero Rocher.
Perhaps you could tell us what the easy answers are though? A grateful nation awaits.
http://order-order.com/2013/12/19/shamed-pictures-of-mps-laughing-in-food-bank-debate/
Watch your language.
Repeated bad language, sets off the spam trap, and automatically restricts your ability to instantly post.
But hey, the economy is roaring.
Mr. Compouter, using food banks to score political points is flawed. Whilst it makes for a good headline, since the introduction of them in the first decade of this century they've increased in number significantly every year. Demand has never been met. This began in the false boom of Labour.
On-topic, I'm staggered. If you trust Labour to be tough on the EU then you're a damned fool. If you want a federalist EU-phile party then vote Lib Dem.
I'm still planning on voting UKIP.
I will withdraw and observe. Right wing talk shop can continue.
I will leave the rest of the night to the PB Hodges and Kippers.
And I take it you haven't found the bit where I said I didn't give a toss? Was that just made up?
If Borthwick shapes up with the ball he is another useful batsman and we would have Broad at nine, with a four prong seam attack and a leg spinner.
The player that really drives me mad is Root, they seem to go out of their way to accommodate him and not only does he not deliver he is slower than Boycott at his worst.
'Trust-gap' between young and old is widening, survey shows
Research by Ipsos Mori shows that only 46% of those born after 1982 trust the man or woman in the street to tell the truth
A widening "trust gap" between 20-somethings and older generations is emerging, according to research by Ipsos Mori, exclusively seen in advance by the Guardian.
On the same day that Guardian/ICM research on political disenchantment finds the electorate in angry mood, and younger voters especially switched off, Ipsos Mori's separate analysis concentrates on the psychological disposition thought to do most to foster civic and political engagement: trust. And it discovers that it is in short supply among the young.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/dec/26/trust-gap-young-old-voters-survey?CMP=twt_fd
He is like all Lefties, very quick to criticise whilst never accepting any responsibility or offering any solutions.
There is no need to be ashamed that a person of your acquaintance is living in a tent.
Tent rooms were elevated to the highest of fashion by a Corsican in the early 19th century. A blog I was reading recently explained:
Although there are 18th century examples, the taste for 'tent' rooms as well as for 'antique drapery' really took off in the Napoleonic period at the beginning of the 19th century. Firstly, there was the 'Egyptian campaign' led by Napoleon Bonaparte (as French General) between 1798 and 1802, which caused a huge fashion for all sorts of 'campaign' furniture, tent rooms, and lots of loose fabric hung over spears, arrows etc. Secondly, after he became Emperor in 1804, Napoleon took the artistic language of the Roman Empire as his prime decorative inspiration, both for architecture and for interior design. These two influences, the battle/campaign style and architecture of ancient Rome, changed the 'draped look' for ever, giving it a much more masculine character. From the cushioned atmosphere of an exotic 'harem', it became a manly and rather cold military style, albeit equally theatrical and romantic. Large scale draperies began to suggest power and wealth and were thought suitable for grand public rooms instead of merely for private boudoirs and bedrooms.
Examples can be found in our country's finest homes. including Windsor Castle and Carlton House.
I suggest you take advantage of your temporary absence from PB to surf to the following page which provides many notable examples of the fashion.
http://bit.ly/19OiedZ
"My Dec 27th wish is for England to get up to 320."
BC or AD? Either seems a rather harsh judgement on our southern cousins - who are really quite modern in lots of ways.
"In the most diverse communities, neighbors trust one another about half as much as they do in the most homogenous settings"
http://www.boston.com/news/globe/ideas/articles/2007/08/04/the_downside_of_diversity/
There are a few players who are a more immediate problem than Root.
600,000 unemployed EU citizens living in Britain at a cost of £1.5billion to the NHS
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2457349/600-000-unemployed-EU-citizens-living-Britain-cost-1-5billion-NHS.html#ixzz2ocXx8Lra
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
http://fullfact.org/factchecks/are_there_600000_unemployed_eu_migrants_in_the_uk-29237
Stick around. We all welcome reasoned, passionate, even wholly biased blinkered debate.
As long as it is done with some wit and acuity.
At present I feel you are finding your way. But you have the makings of a great lefter with hugely important input into the national political debate.
Keep posting but remember a couple of things:
1. Not everyone is your sworn enemy.
2. Poverty/Wealth is not binary; there are many shades in between.
3. Likewise binary assignation of good/bad outcomes to Lab/Con or Con/Lab is fruitless.
Keep at is - we welcome your contributions.
As with many other Mail stories, long on generalities and outrage and short on specifics. I'd be curious to know how many British citizens are registered unemployed in Spain, Greece, Portugal and elsewhere. I've never seen any figures.
What page of the UKIP manifesto will this stunning stat feature on?
The poor are always with us, as the old saying goes. Christian groups were always going to get involved once the idea gained currency. What's surprising is the demand for their services these foodbanks are finding. If things were hunky-dory they would have difficulty finding 'customers'.
I am all in favour of foodbanks. I regard it as the private distribution of welfare. Why should I give money to the Government to give to the poor - I can give it directly, thank you very much.
What's interesting is that IDS is hostile, while Labour is in favour. Surely it should be the other way round?
Reasons?
1. Foodbanks were originally set up to fill in the gaps in the Social Security system - delays in payments. So, the very existence of foodbanks implies the Social Security system isn't perfect, but what is? The increase in their use suggests another cause - the sanctioning of benefits as well as the expected rise in Social Security claimants during a recession.
2. Cynically, foodbanks contribute nothing to Conservative Party (or any other party) coffers, but the new breed of service companies do. This would explain why the Government refused the earmarking of aid to foodbanks, instead wanting the money going to private contractors for training the unemployed.
3. This isn't a Consevative Government. They are old-fashioned Corporatists who are only cutting back the State because of public finances, not out of conviction. They cannot stand people doing things without the Government involved or stealing credit.
Perhaps it is a blessing in disguise for foodbanks that the Tories want nothing to do with them.
Root was very childish when he was out in the second innings at the WACA, wasting a review because he couldn't believe he was out.
Why smear UKIP again, getting worried are we?
Wishing you a very happy Christmas and now off to bed!
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/exclusive-alex-salmond-hid-legal-reality-of-an-independent-scotlands-eu-status-9026325.html
http://www.timesofisrael.com/erdogan-struggles-to-contain-corruption-probe/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
PoliticsHome @politicshome
Tomorrow’s Financial Times front page: Turkish PM faces fight for political survival http://polho.me/1crMbkD
I'm too partisan to hope that UKIP wins, of course, but I'd guess that Tory fire will be principle against them in the Euros.