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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Well done to Corbyn on his victory and to YouGov for gettin
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Well done to Corbyn on his victory and to YouGov for getting another leadership election spot on
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John Woodcock and Dan Jarvis the favourites?
"We shall keep the Falklands and Give Jeremy Corbyn to the Argentinians."
"SMITH SAVES CORBYN."
Yougov is annoyingly much better at Labour leadership elections than General Elections or Referendums.
I didn't know much about Smith before he put his hat into the ring. But throughout the campaign he seemed to shift onto Corbyn's ground, to try to out-Corbyn Corbyn. That always seemed slightly daft, and I wonder how much that reflected his real position and how much was a play for votes.
Still, congratulations to Corbyn and his supporters, and commiserations to moderate Labourites who have seen their party move away from them.
Whether we like it or not the parliamentary party are not reflective of their own membership?
Don't forget the "IT'S STILL TOO CLOSE TO CALL" matra.
Clearly focused on winning the votes of supporters of both candidates in the Manchester Mayoral race
Smith wasn't the answer for Labour but it would have removed Corbyn, allowed a change to the rules to make it easier to boot out future leaders and possibly killed off momentum by them leaving the party now that their messiah was gone.
Now you are going to get more years if infighting and Corbyn taking the party further left and becoming less electable with each passing month.
*If* Labour pull behind him, he might be perfectly capable of taking that grittiness and consistency and using it against the Conservatives and May.
He's a survivor. He survived for thirty-odd years in a Labour party that moved away from him, and he's survived attacks by his own side and come out stronger.
It's not time for the Conservatives to be frightened, but they should surely be worried.
"@election_data /YouGov exit poll shows @OwenSmith_MP 'won' leadership among pre-2015 Lab members
Owen Smith also beat Corbyn among party members aged under-24s - and overall in Scotland - exit poll finds."
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh
Staking out clear centrist ground might have worked if the NEC hadn't changed the registered supporters rules, because then a challenger might have aimed to bring in moderates to vote. But with the price put up and a short registration period, that strategy went out of the window.
That's the same odds as were on NOM on the morning of the last election!
1.72 the Conservative majority looks like value.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/#/politics/event/27456523/market?marketId=1.119040708
I believe that extensive postal voting making election polls less accurate. Most EURef postal voters would have cast ballots about June 2/3rd. So by the eve of poll a question of what postal voters did was about something that happened 3 weeks earlier adding to possibility of inaccuracy.
Gerry Adams
Well done Jeremy Corbyn.
That could be a metaphor for his whole leadership.
Strength and grit themselves do not win an election.
Lots of "let's work together" interviews running from both sides on BBC2 - I think the message has got through and the mood is clearly to try to make it work: both people who wanted a new party and people who wanted massive deselections are going against the flow.
If Trump wins, however, all bets on what happens next are off. He has all Corbyn's drawbacks and is a less effective campaigner.
Something strange is happening to the world's politics and the consequences could easily be very unpleasant for all of us.
https://twitter.com/mclaverock/status/779640119837982720
Chin up Labour, in England you are still the only viable non-Tory option, you will survive. And with survival, a chance. Eventually.
Both Angela Eagle and Owen Smith were dreadful candidates.
We now know more about Owen’s shortcomings because he spent the Summer displaying them to us. But, Angela was just as limited & dreadful.
Corbyn could have been challenged much more effectively once he had a reasonable chance to show what he could do. Challenging after a year was another terrible mistake.
I am pleased Corby won, because he was the better candidate, and because he deserves 2 to 3 years to show what he can do.
The worst thing about the election was the blatant gerrymandering. The exclusion of Labour supporters after the arbitrary deadline of January 12th was just ridiculously partisan, and for that Iain MacNicol should lose his job.
With his enemies' blood....
None of which speaks as to whether it will be made to work moving forward - they said they;d work together before, then said it wasn;t working.
Let the
war,deselections,blood lettingcoming together in unity beginStephen Pollard @stephenpollard 12m12 minutes ago
I understand that at least one (Jewish) Lab parliamentarian is to resign from the party today.
Lib Dems had the teachers voting for them until the coalition froze their salaries.
The great unwashed put up with it while their lives improved materially but when their living standards stagnated while the elite got ever richer they started to call bullshit.
I can hardly believe I'm saying this: but his survival instincts deserve respects. Perhaps the Conservatives should stop treating him as an unelectable joke and as someone who is a gritty campaigner who might be able to get a surprise.
May's start hasn't exactly bee sure-footed, and she has the perils of Brexit to deal with, yet alone the unknown unknowns. The Conservatives should not be complacent, at least IMO.
I think my wife got it spot on this morning when she said,"this is the birth of a British Nazi Party". When you think of it, with increasing anti-semitism, an extra parliamentary group of street protestors and possibly fighters in Momentum, supporting The Leader, and a policy to make the UK feeble - but only while the Tories govern the country.
The National Socialist German Workers Party also started as a labour movement. Look how that turned out
We naively believed Gove would finally hammer the DFES and set us free to teach.
Unfortunately, we underestimated his ambition, his lack of character and his arrogance.
We all make mistakes.
In fairness, however, that was a minor cock-up compared to what Labour, twice, and the Republicans have done in the last thirteen months.
Most likely a Lord, or an MEP or some 'list' member of Eu/Scot/Wales parliaments, who'll just be replaced by another lab member.
It might appeal to many people who don't look to deeply into the policies.
Quentin and Sean spring to mind