There's quite a gulf between the two major spreadbetting firms as regards the ECV votes forecast to be won by the two major protagonists in the forthcoming POTUS election, so much so that there's currently an unusual teeny weeny arb opportunity in the case of Clinton, despite the firms' 10/12 point spreads.
Sporting Index goes:
Clinton .... 319 - 329 Trump ...... 209 - 219
Spreadex goes:
Clinton .... 330 - 342 Trump ...... 196 - 208
Currently, Nate Silver's 538.com has Hillary winning 341 ECVs, with The Donald bringing up the rear on 196. If he's right, and it's a BIG if, then a buy of Hillary at 329 with Sporting looks like the bet .... I'm on, modestly, but DYOR .... Spreadbetting is, as they say, high risk /high reward.
Interesting and thanks for the update.
As I said in my previous, I can't see, on current poll numbers, HRC at under 308 and Trump at over 230.
Then we have states like IA, OH. NC, AZ and GA plus UT I suppose. They have 72 EVs between them. IF Trump lost them all, he'd be sub 160 and the Sporting Index sell would look very interesting. I'd be surprised if he lost them all in truth but I'd also be surprised if he won them all.
IF HRC wins NC and OH (and Trump wins UT) it would be 341-197 which is basically where Spreadex are. I think there's more possibilities in the Sporting Index price on an HRC buy.
DYOR of course and with just over 2 weeks to go, there are a lot of states from which we've had next to no recent polling.
The high level of unemployment resulting from the high minimum wage and lack of tax credits will certainly help to reduce migration. As will the rocketing crime wave, as desperate people with no welfare support and no way of earning a living are forced to steal to survive.
No way of earning a living? The minimum wage is a real living wage and the economic boost from paying people more has always worked out with more jobs being created than being lost. You sound like the Tories and big business in 1997.
You're not taking into account the sad truth that a significant number of people are simply not capable of performing work that any company would value at £12.50/h.
I think everyone is capable of that, they just need the right motivation, dedication and training to achieve it. In all honesty it's not a massive jump. If you add employers NI to the current NLW that's already £8.20/h, the NLW would have to rise by 8-9% per year to meet the five year target. A lot of the additonal cost of employment can be reclaimed through higher prices and wage reductions at the top.
Anyway, I know it's possible since even the lowest worker in Switzerland receives wages of at least 18Fr/h which is higher than £12.50 even with a more favourable exchange rate.
I believe McDonalds in Zurich pays close to twice that.
How much does a big Mac cost there?
A McDonald's meal is 11-12Fr, around two thirds of one work unit for a minimum wage worker. Over here they are £4.60 which is also just under two thirds of a minimum wage work unit. If the minimum wage rose to £12.50 then I'd expect a McDonald's meal to rise to ~£8 and a Starbucks coffee to rise to around £5.
MrsB, probably because the votes are tight and, whilst distrusting Clinton, they're far more disturbed by the prospect of Trump winning.
I do wonder if the third chap might win Utah.
Not sure whether there is enough correction in the polling for shy Trumpeters
I am not sure if there are any shy Trumpsters left. They are either very loud Trumpsters, or they have left the building ...
As someone who is appalled by what a Clinton presidency will mean for the country, and even worse, for the balance of the Supreme Court for the next quarter century, I cannot bring myself to support Trump. My wife, who cannot stand Hillary, and whose gross income will probably be more than decimated and then taxed more under Hillary, also finds herself each time she is about to reconcile herself to voting Trump having that resolve destroyed by that day's unconscionable from his mouth.
What are you going to do then, skip the topline and go down ballot GOP ?
I don't have a vote. I think my wife will vote Johnson and GOP down ticket.
But in MD, the Presidential and statewide votes are a foregone conclusion, and the House seats are so gerrymandered that only the Eastern Shore gets a GOP representative. Northern MD used to, but then they split the rural area between CD 6 and CD 8, ensuring that the Bethesda vote in CD6 and the Prince George's County in CD8 swamped the rural GOP vote in the entire north.
To see how bad the gerrymandering of House districts is, see:
< Talking of the weak £, and anecdotally, I've noticed lots of French and Italian people wandering down Parkway, in Camden - looking in estate agents windows, quite intently.
London is flooded with foreign tourists right now (so is Devon) because of the feeble £, but this looks specifically like property hunting.
Hmm. I wonder if paraxodically we might see a surge in London property sales. Let's face it, if you're rich, from Asia, the USA, or the continent, and looking to invest money, one of the best investments in modern history - London property - has just, suddenly, got 20% cheaper.
Of course if you're thinking of buying, you have to weight the possibility that the £ will fall further, or the London market will collapse post-Brexit, but against that you have to weigh the possibility that this is a fairly brief and unprecedented bargain price, for an asset that nearly always appreciates very fast, and you should seize the moment.
We shall see.
Add in places like York to the list of those enjoying a tourist boom.
The London property market, like all others, works on supply and demand. All that's happening is one type of demand is perhaps being replaced by another - even the more salubrious areas like Newham are enjoying rising prices.
''As someone who is appalled by what a Clinton presidency will mean for the country, and even worse, for the balance of the Supreme Court for the next quarter century, I cannot bring myself to support Trump. ''
When the republicans find someone you can support you still won't win, because you will never win enough floaters to replace those Trumpers who will desert the cause.
Hillary's tribe is rock solid, because she holds out the promise of transferring a colossal sum of wealth from you to them.
MrsB, probably because the votes are tight and, whilst distrusting Clinton, they're far more disturbed by the prospect of Trump winning.
I do wonder if the third chap might win Utah.
Not sure whether there is enough correction in the polling for shy Trumpeters
I am not sure if there are any shy Trumpsters left. They are either very loud Trumpsters, or they have left the building ...
As someone who is appalled by what a Clinton presidency will mean for the country, and even worse, for the balance of the Supreme Court for the next quarter century, I cannot bring myself to support Trump. My wife, who cannot stand Hillary, and whose gross income will probably be more than decimated and then taxed more under Hillary, also finds herself each time she is about to reconcile herself to voting Trump having that resolve destroyed by that day's unconscionable from his mouth.
What are you going to do then, skip the topline and go down ballot GOP ?
I don't have a vote. I think my wife will vote Johnson and GOP down ticket.
But in MD, the Presidential and statewide votes are a foregone conclusion, and the House seats are so gerrymandered that only the Eastern Shore gets a GOP representative. Northern MD used to, but then they split the rural area between CD 6 and CD 8, ensuring that the Bethesda vote in CD6 and the Prince George's County in CD8 swamped the rural GOP vote in the entire north.
To see how bad the gerrymandering of House districts is, see:
''As someone who is appalled by what a Clinton presidency will mean for the country, and even worse, for the balance of the Supreme Court for the next quarter century, I cannot bring myself to support Trump. ''
When the republicans find someone you can support you still won't win, because you will never win enough floaters to replace those Trumpers who will desert the cause.
Hillary's tribe is rock solid, because she holds out the promise of transferring a colossal sum of wealth from you to them.
We will see how many 'Trumpers' they are soon. I suspect it will be a small enough percentage that the GOP would be better getting rid of them
There's quite a gulf between the two major spreadbetting firms as regards the ECV votes forecast to be won by the two major protagonists in the forthcoming POTUS election, so much so that there's currently an unusual teeny weeny arb opportunity in the case of Clinton, despite the firms' 10/12 point spreads.
Sporting Index goes:
Clinton .... 319 - 329 Trump ...... 209 - 219
Spreadex goes:
Clinton .... 330 - 342 Trump ...... 196 - 208
Currently, Nate Silver's 538.com has Hillary winning 341 ECVs, with The Donald bringing up the rear on 196. If he's right, and it's a BIG if, then a buy of Hillary at 329 with Sporting looks like the bet .... I'm on, modestly, but DYOR .... Spreadbetting is, as they say, high risk /high reward.
Interesting and thanks for the update.
As I said in my previous, I can't see, on current poll numbers, HRC at under 308 and Trump at over 230.
Then we have states like IA, OH. NC, AZ and GA plus UT I suppose. They have 72 EVs between them. IF Trump lost them all, he'd be sub 160 and the Sporting Index sell would look very interesting. I'd be surprised if he lost them all in truth but I'd also be surprised if he won them all.
IF HRC wins NC and OH (and Trump wins UT) it would be 341-197 which is basically where Spreadex are. I think there's more possibilities in the Sporting Index price on an HRC buy.
DYOR of course and with just over 2 weeks to go, there are a lot of states from which we've had next to no recent polling.
There's quite a gulf between the two major spreadbetting firms as regards the ECV votes forecast to be won by the two major protagonists in the forthcoming POTUS election, so much so that there's currently an unusual teeny weeny arb opportunity in the case of Clinton, despite the firms' 10/12 point spreads.
Sporting Index goes:
Clinton .... 319 - 329 Trump ...... 209 - 219
Spreadex goes:
Clinton .... 330 - 342 Trump ...... 196 - 208
Currently, Nate Silver's 538.com has Hillary winning 341 ECVs, with The Donald bringing up the rear on 196. If he's right, and it's a BIG if, then a buy of Hillary at 329 with Sporting looks like the bet .... I'm on, modestly, but DYOR .... Spreadbetting is, as they say, high risk /high reward.
Interesting and thanks for the update.
As I said in my previous, I can't see, on current poll numbers, HRC at under 308 and Trump at over 230.
Then we have states like IA, OH. NC, AZ and GA plus UT I suppose. They have 72 EVs between them. IF Trump lost them all, he'd be sub 160 and the Sporting Index sell would look very interesting. I'd be surprised if he lost them all in truth but I'd also be surprised if he won them all.
IF HRC wins NC and OH (and Trump wins UT) it would be 341-197 which is basically where Spreadex are. I think there's more possibilities in the Sporting Index price on an HRC buy.
DYOR of course and with just over 2 weeks to go, there are a lot of states from which we've had next to no recent polling.
"Harvie said that a currency union between an independent Scotland inside the EU and a UK outside the EU would be even less appealing to voters now than it did in the run up the 2014 referendum."
"..where does that leave the idea of a currency union between an independent Scotland inside the EU and a UK outside the EU? I think that is going to prove even more unconvincing than it did in 2014."
"Harvie said that a currency union between an independent Scotland inside the EU and a UK outside the EU would be even less appealing to voters now than it did in the run up the 2014 referendum."
"..where does that leave the idea of a currency union between an independent Scotland inside the EU and a UK outside the EU? I think that is going to prove even more unconvincing than it did in 2014."
There'll be a celtic Eurozone stretching from Cork to Shetland.
A small percentage of the overall voting public in the USA.
Maybe. But you can see how this is going. If Trump loses, the Repubs will be told that if only, if only they had selected someone more appealing to the centre, more appealing to the swing voter, the minority voter, that would get them over the line.
And they will probably do that. And then they'll lose again.
A small percentage of the overall voting public in the USA.
Maybe. But you can see how this is going. If Trump loses, the Repubs will be told that if only, if only they had selected someone more appealing to the centre, more appealing to the swing voter, the minority voter, that would get them over the line.
And they will probably do that. And then they'll lose again.
Or they will nominate another crazy racist. And lose again.
They have no option other than move to the centre. Trump's direction is a long term loser for obvious reasons.
A small percentage of the overall voting public in the USA.
Maybe. But you can see how this is going. If Trump loses, the Repubs will be told that if only, if only they had selected someone more appealing to the centre, more appealing to the swing voter, the minority voter, that would get them over the line.
And they will probably do that. And then they'll lose again.
What they need is a more credible American nationalist who doesn't completely disdain Trump's platform. A Putin to Trump's Zhirinovsky.
''We will see how many 'Trumpers' they are soon. I suspect it will be a small enough percentage that the GOP would be better getting rid of them ''
Yep it will indeed be fascinating to find out. Enough for him to smash much better backed rivals in the primaries, though, to be sure.
Trump licked Bush in the primaries.
Or was that just locker-room talk?
It seems there are two groups who want radical change. On the Right there's the Tea Party/Trumpsters, angry at being left behind and wanting a return to a lost America, probably one where Ike was in the White House and the mills still worked. On the Left though there are the Bernie Sanders supporters - who equally are angry and unhappy with modern America, for very different reasons.
"Among Republican and Republican-leaning likely voters, 45 percent said they might not accept the election as legitimate if their candidate doesn't win, including 18 percent who said they would definitely not accept the outcome . A majority of Republicans—53 percent—said they would accept the results of the election if their candidate loses."
A small percentage of the overall voting public in the USA.
Maybe. But you can see how this is going. If Trump loses, the Repubs will be told that if only, if only they had selected someone more appealing to the centre, more appealing to the swing voter, the minority voter, that would get them over the line.
And they will probably do that. And then they'll lose again.
What they need is a more credible American nationalist who doesn't completely disdain Trump's platform. A Putin to Trump's Zhirinovsky.
Pence ? He seems pretty sensible, handles himself well on the TV, and has no obvious skeletons in the closet. I am sure he will find a way to disown Trump's shortcoming as personality issues rather than problems with the platform, using the opportunity to tiptoe away from the more stupid bits of the platform. He can then spend three years touring blue collar areas and showing everyone his nationalist awakening from his former machine republican image.
A small percentage of the overall voting public in the USA.
Maybe. But you can see how this is going. If Trump loses, the Repubs will be told that if only, if only they had selected someone more appealing to the centre, more appealing to the swing voter, the minority voter, that would get them over the line.
And they will probably do that. And then they'll lose again.
What they need is a more credible American nationalist who doesn't completely disdain Trump's platform. A Putin to Trump's Zhirinovsky.
Pence ? He seems pretty sensible, handles himself well on the TV, and has no obvious skeletons in the closet. I am sure he will find a way to disown Trump's shortcoming as personality issues rather than problems with the platform, using the opportunity to tiptoe away from the more stupid bits of the platform. He can then spend three years touring blue collar areas and showing everyone his nationalist awakening from his former machine republican image.
Maybe, but he has pretty extreme abortion views which won't help him women.
"The problem is when polls are significantly wrong, it is almost always to the detriment of Labour. The two big polling disasters of recent times were in 1992 and 2015: on both occasions, the reality was much worse for Labour."
A small percentage of the overall voting public in the USA.
Maybe. But you can see how this is going. If Trump loses, the Repubs will be told that if only, if only they had selected someone more appealing to the centre, more appealing to the swing voter, the minority voter, that would get them over the line.
And they will probably do that. And then they'll lose again.
What they need is a more credible American nationalist who doesn't completely disdain Trump's platform. A Putin to Trump's Zhirinovsky.
Pence ? He seems pretty sensible, handles himself well on the TV, and has no obvious skeletons in the closet. I am sure he will find a way to disown Trump's shortcoming as personality issues rather than problems with the platform, using the opportunity to tiptoe away from the more stupid bits of the platform. He can then spend three years touring blue collar areas and showing everyone his nationalist awakening from his former machine republican image.
Maybe, but he has pretty extreme abortion views which won't help him women.
So did Rubio, and he was ahead in all the polling against Hillary.
Trump up by 6 in Indiana which was a spectacular win for Obama in 2008 but Romney won it 54-44 last time. Given Pence is on the ticket you'd expect a boost for the GOP and Trump is up 43-37 (Johnson 9) which, as with the earlier GA poll, suggests a 2% swing to HRC from 2012 which isn't huge and doesn't yet support the idea of a big Democrat win.
Trump up by 6 in Indiana which was a spectacular win for Obama in 2008 but Romney won it 54-44 last time. Given Pence is on the ticket you'd expect a boost for the GOP and Trump is up 43-37 (Johnson 9) which, as with the earlier GA poll, suggests a 2% swing to HRC from 2012 which isn't huge and doesn't yet support the idea of a big Democrat win.
I doubt Hillary will win IN, it drops after TX I reckon.
My worst result is now an Electoral college sweep by Trump.
It is baked beans for a year if that happens
I recommend Branston in preference to Heinz! Out of interest, at what price did you load onto Clinton/dump Trump.
Another Branston baked beans fan - so much nicer!
Vote for Branston from me too.
Heinz were OK but about three years ago they suddenly went very bland so we changed to Branston and haven't looked back since!
There was a big uproar on social media when Tesco took Branston off the shelves I seem to remember!
Tesco is hopeless. Things just "come and go" for weeks, even months at a time. How they are the UK biggest retailer I have no idea.
Sainsbury's very good for supplies with Asda and Morrisons better than Tesco as well.
It's because they're quite agressive with their suppliers. If they don't get the price they want, they'll take it off, never mind whether it's a household name.
The high level of unemployment resulting from the high minimum wage and lack of tax credits will certainly help to reduce migration. As will the rocketing crime wave, as desperate people with no welfare support and no way of earning a living are forced to steal to survive.
No way of earning a living? The minimum wage is a real living wage and the economic boost from paying people more has always worked out with more jobs being created than being lost. You sound like the Tories and big business in 1997.
You're not taking into account the sad truth that a significant number of people are simply not capable of performing work that any company would value at £12.50/h.
I think everyone is capable of that, they just need the right motivation, dedication and training to achieve it. In all honesty it's not a massive jump. If you add employers NI to the current NLW that's already £8.20/h, the NLW would have to rise by 8-9% per year to meet the five year target. A lot of the additonal cost of employment can be reclaimed through higher prices and wage reductions at the top.
Anyway, I know it's possible since even the lowest worker in Switzerland receives wages of at least 18Fr/h which is higher than £12.50 even with a more favourable exchange rate.
I believe McDonalds in Zurich pays close to twice that.
How much does a big Mac cost there?
No idea. But last week I paid nearly 9 quid for a Starbucks hot chocolate at Zurich airport that costs three quid in the UK. Delays!
You pay the equivalent of about £9 for a coffee in Australia these days. I had to ration myself when I was there in August.
Between £1 and £1.30 here in SE Spain for excellent coffee + water + OJ + small croissants/doughnuts! Sea views gratis
My worst result is now an Electoral college sweep by Trump.
It is baked beans for a year if that happens
I recommend Branston in preference to Heinz! Out of interest, at what price did you load onto Clinton/dump Trump.
Another Branston baked beans fan - so much nicer!
Vote for Branston from me too.
Heinz were OK but about three years ago they suddenly went very bland so we changed to Branston and haven't looked back since!
There was a big uproar on social media when Tesco took Branston off the shelves I seem to remember!
Tesco is hopeless. Things just "come and go" for weeks, even months at a time. How they are the UK biggest retailer I have no idea.
Sainsbury's very good for supplies with Asda and Morrisons better than Tesco as well.
It's because they're quite agressive with their suppliers. If they don't get the price they want, they'll take it off, never mind whether it's a household name.
It certainly seems that way. But as a customer I've completely given up on them. Guess I must be in the minority though.
My worst result is now an Electoral college sweep by Trump.
It is baked beans for a year if that happens
I recommend Branston in preference to Heinz! Out of interest, at what price did you load onto Clinton/dump Trump.
Another Branston baked beans fan - so much nicer!
Vote for Branston from me too.
Heinz were OK but about three years ago they suddenly went very bland so we changed to Branston and haven't looked back since!
There was a big uproar on social media when Tesco took Branston off the shelves I seem to remember!
Tesco is hopeless. Things just "come and go" for weeks, even months at a time. How they are the UK biggest retailer I have no idea.
Sainsbury's very good for supplies with Asda and Morrisons better than Tesco as well.
It's because they're quite agressive with their suppliers. If they don't get the price they want, they'll take it off, never mind whether it's a household name.
It certainly seems that way. But as a customer I've completely given up on them. Guess I must be in the minority though.
I flit between Tesco delivery and Sainsbury's delivery when one of them annoys me too much. Neither company seems much to care about my temporary absences!
My worst result is now an Electoral college sweep by Trump.
It is baked beans for a year if that happens
I recommend Branston in preference to Heinz! Out of interest, at what price did you load onto Clinton/dump Trump.
Another Branston baked beans fan - so much nicer!
Vote for Branston from me too.
Heinz were OK but about three years ago they suddenly went very bland so we changed to Branston and haven't looked back since!
There was a big uproar on social media when Tesco took Branston off the shelves I seem to remember!
Tesco is hopeless. Things just "come and go" for weeks, even months at a time. How they are the UK biggest retailer I have no idea.
Sainsbury's very good for supplies with Asda and Morrisons better than Tesco as well.
It's because they're quite agressive with their suppliers. If they don't get the price they want, they'll take it off, never mind whether it's a household name.
I think it has a great deal to do with the individual store management and specifically with the degree of idleness of the shelf fillers. The computers may be sufficiently clever to re-order the supplies, but they can't yet place them on the shelves. I've long ago given up enquiring of supermarket staff whether they have a particular item, only to be told immediately and unequivocally that they are out of stock - like they have a perfect photographic memory of every last item held in the back of the store.
Putin's carrier appears to be belching out quite a bit of smoke, some RN types on Twitter appear to think it is having trouble with boilers, engines or fuel.
I've long ago given up enquiring of supermarket staff whether they have a particular item, only to be told immediately and unequivocally that they are out of stock - like they have a perfect photographic memory of every last item held in the back of the store.
The answer to that is mostly close to nothing. With just-in-time fulfilment most modern supermarkets turned their backroom stores into retail spaces. Now they tend to transmit off to their data centre whatever has been sold that day at say 6pm, by about midnight a truck is on the road with exactly what is required to restock the shelves to full again plus a few extras based on data analysis, like a few extra fans if hot weather is forecast. Then by 5-6am the shelves are fully restocked for the next day. Ergo in most cases, if it isnt on the shelf, unless its in the early hours of the morning, they really dont have it.
Mr. 619, for some reason I can't connect to Twitter presently. Could you elaborate?
There has been a massive Denial of Service attack on a domain name server in US. This is where the server gets flooded with false or dodgy requests in order to disable it.
Putin's carrier appears to be belching out quite a bit of smoke, some RN types on Twitter appear to think it is having trouble with boilers, engines or fuel.
No there isn't. It's just brain damage and needs treatment.
I think it's something to do with plastic from bags in the water table. If it's making frogs change sex, it has to be having an impact elsewhere.
It is the phthalates. It is a feminiser. It is used to make PVC more flexible. If you are a fella, do not drink orange juice out of a PVC bottle unless you don't want to continue to be a fella.
Putin's carrier appears to be belching out quite a bit of smoke, some RN types on Twitter appear to think it is having trouble with boilers, engines or fuel.
Russians will be hoping it can limp into the Med.
The wretched ship is knackered has been for years. It broke down at sea a few years ago and nowadays doesn't normally sail without an large ocean going tug in attendance. An unreliable heap of junk that should have been scrapped years ago but has been kept going for prestige reasons.
The high level of unemployment resulting from the high minimum wage and lack of tax credits will certainly help to reduce migration. As will the rocketing crime wave, as desperate people with no welfare support and no way of earning a living are forced to steal to survive.
No way of earning a living? The minimum wage is a real living wage and the economic boost from paying people more has always worked out with more jobs being created than being lost. You sound like the Tories and big business in 1997.
You're not taking into account the sad truth that a significant number of people are simply not capable of performing work that any company would value at £12.50/h.
I think evet's possible since even the lowest worker in Switzerland receives wages of at least 18Fr/h which is higher than £12.50 even with a more favourable exchange rate.
I believe McDonalds in Zurich pays close to twice that.
How much does a big Mac cost there?
No idea. But last week I paid nearly 9 quid for a Starbucks hot chocolate at Zurich airport that costs three quid in the UK. Delays!
Three quid for a freaking cup of Hot Chocolate! I think I'll stick to my policy of only buying alcoholic drinks. It may not be much cheaper but has got to be better value.
Talking of the weak £, and anecdotally, I've noticed lots of French and Italian people wandering down Parkway, in Camden - looking in estate agents windows, quite intently.
London is flooded with foreign tourists right now (so is Devon) because of the feeble £, but this looks specifically like property hunting.
Hmm. I wonder if paraxodically we might see a surge in London property sales. Let's face it, if you're rich, from Asia, the USA, or the continent, and looking to invest money, one of the best investments in modern history - London property - has just, suddenly, got 20% cheaper.
Of course if you're thinking of buying, you have to weight the possibility that the £ will fall further, or the London market will collapse post-Brexit, but against that you have to weigh the possibility that this is a fairly brief and unprecedented bargain price, for an asset that nearly always appreciates very fast, and you should seize the moment.
We shall see.
Bloody foreigners are just shoving £'s in my pocket. What can a Londoner do ?
Andrew Neil @afneil If the EU can't do a free trade deal with Canada or the UK, what's the future of the Customs Union? It's depressing. https://twitter.com/pcol
Apparently the Russian aircraft carrier is supposed to get a refit next year so that it can serve another 25 years... that's half a century total on the water!
No there isn't. It's just brain damage and needs treatment.
I think it's something to do with plastic from bags in the water table. If it's making frogs change sex, it has to be having an impact elsewhere.
It is the phthalates. It is a feminiser. It is used to make PVC more flexible. If you are a fella, do not drink orange juice out of a PVC bottle unless you don't want to continue to be a fella.
Mystery solved! Now we know what has happened to Scott_P over the last year.
Apparently the Russian aircraft carrier is supposed to get a refit next year so that it can serve another 25 years... that's half a century total on the water!
Not so unusual for a carrier. The USN's Nimitz class carriers are expected to last that long, and the last USS Enterprise was in commission for fifty years, 1962-2012.
Comments
As I said in my previous, I can't see, on current poll numbers, HRC at under 308 and Trump at over 230.
Then we have states like IA, OH. NC, AZ and GA plus UT I suppose. They have 72 EVs between them. IF Trump lost them all, he'd be sub 160 and the Sporting Index sell would look very interesting. I'd be surprised if he lost them all in truth but I'd also be surprised if he won them all.
IF HRC wins NC and OH (and Trump wins UT) it would be 341-197 which is basically where Spreadex are. I think there's more possibilities in the Sporting Index price on an HRC buy.
DYOR of course and with just over 2 weeks to go, there are a lot of states from which we've had next to no recent polling.
But in MD, the Presidential and statewide votes are a foregone conclusion, and the House seats are so gerrymandered that only the Eastern Shore gets a GOP representative. Northern MD used to, but then they split the rural area between CD 6 and CD 8, ensuring that the Bethesda vote in CD6 and the Prince George's County in CD8 swamped the rural GOP vote in the entire north.
To see how bad the gerrymandering of House districts is, see:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-TdWPXkg1_10/Tnev8rDLYUI/AAAAAAAAAIU/IYgXClkYtYU/s1600/md-2012-redistricting.jpg
It is baked beans for a year if that happens
The London property market, like all others, works on supply and demand. All that's happening is one type of demand is perhaps being replaced by another - even the more salubrious areas like Newham are enjoying rising prices.
When the republicans find someone you can support you still won't win, because you will never win enough floaters to replace those Trumpers who will desert the cause.
Hillary's tribe is rock solid, because she holds out the promise of transferring a colossal sum of wealth from you to them.
A friend of mine has a postal vote, he'll be voting Clinton (By post, he lives in Manchester). Won't make any difference, he is registered in VT
IF the polls are right it is definitely 341 HRC, 197 Trump at any rate.
Decent sized IF judging by how people do love to trip them up, mind..
Yep it will indeed be fascinating to find out. Enough for him to smash much better backed rivals in the primaries, though, to be sure.
But not long.
https://www.holyrood.com/articles/news/patrick-harvie-case-currency-union-between-independent-scotland-and-ruk-even-less
"Harvie said that a currency union between an independent Scotland inside the EU and a UK outside the EU would be even less appealing to voters now than it did in the run up the 2014 referendum."
"..where does that leave the idea of a currency union between an independent Scotland inside the EU and a UK outside the EU? I think that is going to prove even more unconvincing than it did in 2014."
last
60-days 4.0%
30-days 5.0%
14-days 6.5%
7-days 6.0%
It's hard to imagine just how insignificant some of the other nations in the EU are to Canada.
Maybe. But you can see how this is going. If Trump loses, the Repubs will be told that if only, if only they had selected someone more appealing to the centre, more appealing to the swing voter, the minority voter, that would get them over the line.
And they will probably do that. And then they'll lose again.
Or was that just locker-room talk?
They have no option other than move to the centre. Trump's direction is a long term loser for obvious reasons.
https://groceries.asda.com/product/baked-beans/asda-smartprice-baked-beans-in-tomato-sauce/20655
Mr. Jonathan, when we leave the EU, can we go back to using d for denarii rather than p for pence?
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/poll-clinton-won-final-debate-53-republicans-would-accept-election-n670626
Heinz were OK but about three years ago they suddenly went very bland so we changed to Branston and haven't looked back since!
http://www.biona.co.uk/product-15-4.html
"The problem is when polls are significantly wrong, it is almost always to the detriment of Labour. The two big polling disasters of recent times were in 1992 and 2015: on both occasions, the reality was much worse for Labour."
https://medium.com/@OwenJones84/polling-and-labours-prospects-9cd39945ce5e#.momarvbou
Sainsbury's very good for supplies with Asda and Morrisons better than Tesco as well.
http://wishtv.com/2016/10/20/hoosier-survey-trump-leads-in-indiana-pence-helps/
Trump up by 6 in Indiana which was a spectacular win for Obama in 2008 but Romney won it 54-44 last time. Given Pence is on the ticket you'd expect a boost for the GOP and Trump is up 43-37 (Johnson 9) which, as with the earlier GA poll, suggests a 2% swing to HRC from 2012 which isn't huge and doesn't yet support the idea of a big Democrat win.
Scottish parliament voting intention (const.):
SNP: 51%
CON: 21%
LAB: 18%
LDEM: 7%
(via BMG / 28 Sep - 04 Oct)
It's just brain damage and needs treatment.
SNP: 49% (-1)
CON: 20% (+5)
LAB: 17% (-7)
LDEM: 8% (-)
(via BMG / 28 Sep - 04 Oct)
Chgs. vs. GE2015
Eh?? .... Non comprendo.
Nevermind the Tories, look like it's: Lib-Dems [NOT] Winning Here!
PS: They are lucky that losers get some freebie seats
I'm taking the Lib Dems
I've long ago given up enquiring of supermarket staff whether they have a particular item, only to be told immediately and unequivocally that they are out of stock - like they have a perfect photographic memory of every last item held in the back of the store.
Ummmmmmm
Russians will be hoping it can limp into the Med.
https://twitter.com/JaneyGodley/status/789496621641953281
Mr. 619, when I said 'elaborate' I meant a bit more elaborately
If the EU can't do a free trade deal with Canada or the UK, what's the future of the Customs Union? It's depressing. https://twitter.com/pcol
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