Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How Clinton apathy delivered the presidency for Trump

1235

Comments

  • glw said:

    GIN1138 said:
    This "whitelash" idea of Polly's doesn't make any sense when it seems that Democrats who voted for Obama did not vote for Clinton. It would seem to have little to do with race, and a lot to do with the quality of the candidate. But of course Polly's not going to write 1,000 words about why Hilary should never have been nominated is she?
    The mistake you're making is assuming Polly even tries to make sense.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005
    The Democrats must feel in a pretty despairing state. However yet again in a Presidential election they won the popular vote. Only once since 1988 have the Republicans won the popular vote - in 2004 after 9/11 with Bus standing as a war president.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    surbiton said:

    It looks like Hillary made the same organisational mistakes in 2016 Presidential that she made in the 2008 Primaries. Then, she had virtually zero organisation after Super-Tuesday. Obama , on the other hand, had small organisation everywhere including the Red states. He regularly swept up small numbers of delegates and ultimately the totals matter. In fact, the Potomac primaries just after Super Tuesday finished her off.

    Not having visited Wisconsin even once is difficult to believe.

    It is gobsmackingly puzzling, visiting Ohio when it was 9 point Trump win but not the razor thing margin other midwestern states for a campaign that was all about Big Data and micro targetting is a titanic level disaster.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    surbiton said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Blue_rog said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Mortimer said:

    These protesters really don't understand that their left-liberal identity politics is over, finished, kaput, do they?

    I can see why you'd think that if they'd lost a landslide election... but given that the democrats won the popular vote- feels a bit premature to declare left-liberal identity politics as dead?
    I've seen a few posts today of similar ilk. The election was won under the rules extant period! The percentage vote cast doesn't matter, similar to Labour or the Tories piling up votes in safe seats.
    If the figures I've seen are right, and the US used the popular vote to elect - the winner would be chosen by NY, Los Angeles et al. The electoral college is absolutely the right way to choose a leader that reflects less populous regions.

    The graphic of counties that voted GOP is pretty stark.

    https://goo.gl/images/XMHBy8
    Then why do you support equalisation of constituencies ? Newcastle Central having 50000 electors should have been fine then. Surely, Montana , the Dakotas, Alaska getting three votes [ 1 House Rep and 2 Senators ], whereas New York having only 29 or Texas 38 is surely undemocratic.

    The population of Wyoming is 586k [ less than a tenth of New York City ]. NY State has 19.8m.

    NY State's population is 34 times Wyomings. WY has 3 votes, NY 29. California with 39.1 has 66 times in population and 18 times more EC votes.

    It is thoroughly undemocratic. You support this anachronism because it helps your lot to win. Period.
    Unlike partisan gerrymandering in the House of Representatives, the Electoral College wasn't devised to give an unfair advantage to one side. It's a feature, not a bug, that there's a slight degree of overrepresentation for small States.

    The Democrats used to be able to win statewide contests in most small Prairie States. If their Presidential candidate can't appeal to the voters in such States, that's her fault, not the fault of the system.
  • Lennon said:

    Incidentally I see the bookies are taking money from fools over the French presidency. They have cut Le Pen from 6 to 2/1 barely touching anyone else's odds.

    If you would like 2 or even 3/1, I'll give it to you :)

    Presumably there is no way that Hollande runs and makes it into the final 2 with Le Pen? (He's the only one that I can see her beating in a 1-on-1)
    On present polling I think H'Angus would beat Hollande.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,046
    HYUFD said:

    Placards in the anti Trump demonstrations last night carried the message 'Muslims and immigrants are not the problem Wall Street is.' Michael Moore has issued an online message to supporters urging them to 'take back control of the Democratic Party' and to fight Trump as hard as Republixans fought Obama. Expect the Democrats to take a sharp shift to the left with an infiltration of U.S. Corbynistas while Elizabeth Warren looks a good bet to win the Democratic nomination to challenge President Trump in 2020

    Tulsi Gabbard is the one - practically perfect in every way.

    (This post in no way constitutes betting advice)
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Getting 3.05 in on the Reps Ohio when the polls were showing a Republican lead in mid October was crazy good. Shame I put so little on it.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    The ideal theoretical Dem person to lump on as Dem nominee would be a authentically left winger populist from a mid western state.
  • The Democrats must feel in a pretty despairing state. However yet again in a Presidential election they won the popular vote. Only once since 1988 have the Republicans won the popular vote - in 2004 after 9/11 with Bus standing as a war president.

    But getting millions of votes in Northern California only gets you so far.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    HYUFD said:

    Placards in the anti Trump demonstrations last night carried the message 'Muslims and immigrants are not the problem Wall Street is.' Michael Moore has issued an online message to supporters urging them to 'take back control of the Democratic Party' and to fight Trump as hard as Republixans fought Obama. Expect the Democrats to take a sharp shift to the left with an infiltration of U.S. Corbynistas while Elizabeth Warren looks a good bet to win the Democratic nomination to challenge President Trump in 2020

    Tulsi Gabbard is the one - practically perfect in every way.

    (This post in no way constitutes betting advice)
    I don't see how someone from Hawaii could ever be president.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535

    If black voters wont turn out in sufficient numbers for a white candidate I'd suggest race is a factor;

    I was struck by a C4 interview with a black guy who voted Obama but wouldnt vote Hillary because she wasnt black.

    That's not a "whitelash" is it? Maybe Polly should have spent her time lambasting racist black Democrats.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    Incidentally I see the bookies are taking money from fools over the French presidency. They have cut Le Pen from 6 to 2/1 barely touching anyone else's odds. Ladbrokes at 15/8 are having a laugh!!

    If you would like 2 or even 3/1, I'll give it to you :)

    I don't consider 2/1 attractive odds for Le Pen. Let's wait for her odds to lengthen again.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535
    Alistair said:

    It is gobsmackingly puzzling, visiting Ohio when it was 9 point Trump win but not the razor thing margin other midwestern states for a campaign that was all about Big Data and micro targetting is a titanic level disaster.

    Perhaps they thought Ohio was in play, and states like Wisconsin in the bag?
  • Alistair said:

    surbiton said:

    It looks like Hillary made the same organisational mistakes in 2016 Presidential that she made in the 2008 Primaries. Then, she had virtually zero organisation after Super-Tuesday. Obama , on the other hand, had small organisation everywhere including the Red states. He regularly swept up small numbers of delegates and ultimately the totals matter. In fact, the Potomac primaries just after Super Tuesday finished her off.

    Not having visited Wisconsin even once is difficult to believe.

    It is gobsmackingly puzzling, visiting Ohio when it was 9 point Trump win but not the razor thing margin other midwestern states for a campaign that was all about Big Data and micro targetting is a titanic level disaster.
    Data could well be the enemy here. When people are just not telling pollsters the truth, you follow data which is materially, catastrophically wrong.

    The idea was that Trump's lack of organisation harmed him. It may well have done the exact opposite.

    When pollsters don't have a clue, and you don't have the gumption to fire them, you lose.
  • It's amusing, and salutary, to think that only a few months ago there was much speculation about how the choice of Trump as nominee would lead to electoral catastrophe, major problems down-ballot, and ultimately the end of the Republican Party.

    Now they control the White House, Senate and House, and people are speculating about the end of Democrat-style liberal politics.

    It's rather like 1992 in the UK: before the election, pundits thought Labour would win and the Tories would be in a bad way, then after the election it was Labour that was finished. When ever anyone talks about the 'death' of a major party or political stance, it's always worth remembering how that 1992 example worked out five years later. Even the 2016 Labour Party might conceivably not be dead.

    Months ago? Try weeks, or even days.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    That's not a "whitelash" is it? Maybe Polly should have spent her time lambasting racist black Democrats.

    In the last election, blacks voted 90plus % Obama, even though the middle class amongst them would have been better off under Romney in monetary terms.

    It could be argued it was the ethnic minority voters who made these elections about identity. The whites were late to that profoundly depressing party.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited November 2016

    Alistair said:

    surbiton said:

    It looks like Hillary made the same organisational mistakes in 2016 Presidential that she made in the 2008 Primaries. Then, she had virtually zero organisation after Super-Tuesday. Obama , on the other hand, had small organisation everywhere including the Red states. He regularly swept up small numbers of delegates and ultimately the totals matter. In fact, the Potomac primaries just after Super Tuesday finished her off.

    Not having visited Wisconsin even once is difficult to believe.

    It is gobsmackingly puzzling, visiting Ohio when it was 9 point Trump win but not the razor thing margin other midwestern states for a campaign that was all about Big Data and micro targetting is a titanic level disaster.
    Data could well be the enemy here. When people are just not telling pollsters the truth, you follow data which is materially, catastrophically wrong.

    The idea was that Trump's lack of organisation harmed him. It may well have done the exact opposite.

    When pollsters don't have a clue, and you don't have the gumption to fire them, you lose.
    There was a article posted yesterday that revealed trump had quietly hired some well respected data people & were informing him throughout.

    There was plenty of mocking of his choice of where he was holding his final rallies, perhaps they knew things we didn't.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    glw said:

    If black voters wont turn out in sufficient numbers for a white candidate I'd suggest race is a factor;

    I was struck by a C4 interview with a black guy who voted Obama but wouldnt vote Hillary because she wasnt black.

    That's not a "whitelash" is it? Maybe Polly should have spent her time lambasting racist black Democrats.
    no it's a blacklash

    we dont vote for honkies
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081

    It's amusing, and salutary, to think that only a few months ago there was much speculation about how the choice of Trump as nominee would lead to electoral catastrophe, major problems down-ballot, and ultimately the end of the Republican Party.

    Now they control the White House, Senate and House, and people are speculating about the end of Democrat-style liberal politics.

    It's rather like 1992 in the UK: before the election, pundits thought Labour would win and the Tories would be in a bad way, then after the election it was Labour that was finished. When ever anyone talks about the 'death' of a major party or political stance, it's always worth remembering how that 1992 example worked out five years later. Even the 2016 Labour Party might conceivably not be dead.

    Months ago? Try weeks, or even days.
    And 1992 doesn't really work with the analogy anyway, given that it was clearly a stepping stone toward 1997.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited November 2016

    The Democrats must feel in a pretty despairing state. However yet again in a Presidential election they won the popular vote. Only once since 1988 have the Republicans won the popular vote - in 2004 after 9/11 with Bus standing as a war president.

    But getting millions of votes in Northern California only gets you so far.
    Thus the "Invasion Project", 6 months before the 2016 election 2 million Californian Dem voters divide themselves into 20 100,000 strong cohorts and move to small Rep states. Montana and the Dakotas secured with 4 of those cohorts. Wisonsin, Michigin and Iowa seized with another 4. Still 1.2 million people left to sprinkle over various states to secure a landslide EV vote win.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881
    Blue_rog said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Mortimer said:

    These protesters really don't understand that their left-liberal identity politics is over, finished, kaput, do they?

    I can see why you'd think that if they'd lost a landslide election... but given that the democrats won the popular vote- feels a bit premature to declare left-liberal identity politics as dead?
    I've seen a few posts today of similar ilk. The election was won under the rules extant period! The percentage vote cast doesn't matter, similar to Labour or the Tories piling up votes in safe seats.
    Yes the electoral college decides and that is legitimate given it was the rules under which the election was held. But in terms of predicting what will happen in future... it seems relevant that the democrats have plenty of supporters and actually won the popular vote!
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    edited November 2016
    Sean_F said:

    Incidentally I see the bookies are taking money from fools over the French presidency. They have cut Le Pen from 6 to 2/1 barely touching anyone else's odds. Ladbrokes at 15/8 are having a laugh!!

    If you would like 2 or even 3/1, I'll give it to you :)

    I don't consider 2/1 attractive odds for Le Pen. Let's wait for her odds to lengthen again.
    I think they are very unattractive odds! I am already -400 though...

    I don't think I will tweak much until the results of the LR primary. I've written a thread header on that for Mike, although the odds will now be wrong.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited November 2016

    PlatoSaid said:

    Jonathan said:

    One silver lining for the British left is that we're now back in sync with the American left.

    Whatever solutions the American left come up with to Trump (and they will come up with solutions) will feed back to the UK left.

    For a while we've been out of sync. So the flow of ideas (e.g. Wilson benefitting from Kennedy and Blair benefitting from Clinton) has not been there.

    That's so daft it's mad

    The biggest failing of the UK left has been to import ideas wholesale from the US and to apply them in the UK. The conditions as we have seen this week in both countries are different. Just about every crap idea I can think of has been imported from the US and applied here as if the conditions are the same. And for the record the right isnt much better.

    Once we decide to start solving our own problems ourselves well be in with a chance of making progress.
    BLM being the most stupid and dangerous.
    Run by rich white folk....
    Given how many hours of US TV/activist videos I've watched - the most fascinating thing has been the number of outspoken black Dems voters who've just said Hell No! I'm Off The Plantation Now.

    I didn't understand the whole meme before I immersed myself. Now I get it. Blacks aren't allowed to go off the Democrat plantation - they've got to stay on to be accepted. Go off, and you're a non-person/worse than a Whitey/Uncle Tom et al.

    The more I've watched - the more revolting the mindset is of owning Black voters like slaves at the ballot box... We can see it in the faces of reporters when interviewing Black voters who voted for Trump 'how could you?!?!'
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    glw said:

    Alistair said:

    It is gobsmackingly puzzling, visiting Ohio when it was 9 point Trump win but not the razor thing margin other midwestern states for a campaign that was all about Big Data and micro targetting is a titanic level disaster.

    Perhaps they thought Ohio was in play, and states like Wisconsin in the bag?
    They must have, but how did an operation that was able to call individual counties down to 2 decimal place accuracy in 2012 fail so badly this time?

    The inside accounts will be fascinating and tel us whether the "Big Data" era of politics is over.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535

    There was plenty of mocking of his choice of where he was holding his final rallies, perhaps they knew things we didn't.

    It's funny how the parties or sides that are meant to be the smart ones and have the best ground game keep losing. Perhaps the real smart ones are the ones who keep schtum.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''Now I get it. Blacks aren't allowed to go off the Democrat plantation - they've got to stay on to be accepted. Go off, and you're a non-person/worse than a Whitey/Uncle Tom et al.''

    Same for the poor and the working class. They've got to stay poor, or there's no cause to fight for.

    Trump brilliantly outflanked the dems here.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081
    Alistair said:

    glw said:

    Alistair said:

    It is gobsmackingly puzzling, visiting Ohio when it was 9 point Trump win but not the razor thing margin other midwestern states for a campaign that was all about Big Data and micro targetting is a titanic level disaster.

    Perhaps they thought Ohio was in play, and states like Wisconsin in the bag?
    They must have, but how did an operation that was able to call individual counties down to 2 decimal place accuracy in 2012 fail so badly this time?

    The inside accounts will be fascinating and tel us whether the "Big Data" era of politics is over.
    Maybe this time it was just garbage in?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Totalling up my bets I discover this old one in William Hil that I had forgottena bout George Osborne to be Chancellor of Exchequer on 1st Jan 2017 No @ 4/9

    Who tipped that? Thank you whoever it was.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited November 2016
    PlatoSaid said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Jonathan said:

    One silver lining for the British left is that we're now back in sync with the American left.

    Whatever solutions the American left come up with to Trump (and they will come up with solutions) will feed back to the UK left.

    For a while we've been out of sync. So the flow of ideas (e.g. Wilson benefitting from Kennedy and Blair benefitting from Clinton) has not been there.

    That's so daft it's mad

    The biggest failing of the UK left has been to import ideas wholesale from the US and to apply them in the UK. The conditions as we have seen this week in both countries are different. Just about every crap idea I can think of has been imported from the US and applied here as if the conditions are the same. And for the record the right isnt much better.

    Once we decide to start solving our own problems ourselves well be in with a chance of making progress.
    BLM being the most stupid and dangerous.
    Run by rich white folk....
    Given how many hours of US TV/activist videos I've watched - the most fascinating thing has been the number of outspoken black Dems voters who've just said Hell No! I'm Off The Plantation Now.

    I didn't understand the whole meme before I immersed myself. Now I get it. Blacks aren't allowed to go off the Democrat plantation - they've got to stay on to be accepted. Go off, and you're a non-person/worse than a Whitey/Uncle Tom et al.

    The more I've watched - the more revolting the mindset is of owning Black voters like slaves to be owned at the ballot box... We can see it in the faces of reporters when interviewing Black voters who voted for Trump 'how could you?!?!'
    Its like the bemusement that significant numbers of non-whites in the UK voting for Brexit.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited November 2016
    Stein up to 0.97% now. Little worried
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited November 2016
    glw said:

    There was plenty of mocking of his choice of where he was holding his final rallies, perhaps they knew things we didn't.

    It's funny how the parties or sides that are meant to be the smart ones and have the best ground game keep losing. Perhaps the real smart ones are the ones who keep schtum.
    I notice Mr 619 has done an IoS. hopefully when trump brings all the jobs back he will be able to find alternative employment.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081
    Isn't is bizarre that Betfair will still take bets on the popular vote? Clinton at 1.02
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Placards in the anti Trump demonstrations last night carried the message 'Muslims and immigrants are not the problem Wall Street is.' Michael Moore has issued an online message to supporters urging them to 'take back control of the Democratic Party' and to fight Trump as hard as Republixans fought Obama. Expect the Democrats to take a sharp shift to the left with an infiltration of U.S. Corbynistas while Elizabeth Warren looks a good bet to win the Democratic nomination to challenge President Trump in 2020

    Tulsi Gabbard is the one - practically perfect in every way.

    (This post in no way constitutes betting advice)
    I don't see how someone from Hawaii could ever be president.
    Well someone from Kenya managed it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited November 2016

    One thing that should be mentioned amidst all the talk of working class revolt - and it is happening everywhere - is that Trump did perfectly well with wealthy voters. They appear to have split eveny between himself and Clinton. So the elite who've done well out of globalisation didn't seem entirely hostile to Trump and his apparently anti-establishment rhetoric. If we are to assume that the wealthy are more likely to vote then it looks even more curious.

    Trump's biggest lead was with middle income voters, his lead amongst the highest earning voters was smaller than that Romney had and Trump lost college graduates while Romney won college graduates
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081

    PlatoSaid said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Jonathan said:

    One silver lining for the British left is that we're now back in sync with the American left.

    Whatever solutions the American left come up with to Trump (and they will come up with solutions) will feed back to the UK left.

    For a while we've been out of sync. So the flow of ideas (e.g. Wilson benefitting from Kennedy and Blair benefitting from Clinton) has not been there.

    That's so daft it's mad

    The biggest failing of the UK left has been to import ideas wholesale from the US and to apply them in the UK. The conditions as we have seen this week in both countries are different. Just about every crap idea I can think of has been imported from the US and applied here as if the conditions are the same. And for the record the right isnt much better.

    Once we decide to start solving our own problems ourselves well be in with a chance of making progress.
    BLM being the most stupid and dangerous.
    Run by rich white folk....
    Given how many hours of US TV/activist videos I've watched - the most fascinating thing has been the number of outspoken black Dems voters who've just said Hell No! I'm Off The Plantation Now.

    I didn't understand the whole meme before I immersed myself. Now I get it. Blacks aren't allowed to go off the Democrat plantation - they've got to stay on to be accepted. Go off, and you're a non-person/worse than a Whitey/Uncle Tom et al.

    The more I've watched - the more revolting the mindset is of owning Black voters like slaves to be owned at the ballot box... We can see it in the faces of reporters when interviewing Black voters who voted for Trump 'how could you?!?!'
    Its like the bemusement that significant numbers of non-whites in the UK voting for Brexit.
    Except that here there is a clear pitch to them - stop EU immigration and it will be easier for people to come from Asia, etc. Whether you believe this or not (and the evidence suggests not) there is no doubt this was how the leave case came across to many particularly Asian voters.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    glw said:

    There was plenty of mocking of his choice of where he was holding his final rallies, perhaps they knew things we didn't.

    It's funny how the parties or sides that are meant to be the smart ones and have the best ground game keep losing. Perhaps the real smart ones are the ones who keep schtum.
    I notice Mr 619 has done an IoS...
    Contract over. I hope he got his money though - he did a thorough job here and I'm sure he put similar efforts into the other sites he was assigned to.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited November 2016
    taffys said:

    ''Now I get it. Blacks aren't allowed to go off the Democrat plantation - they've got to stay on to be accepted. Go off, and you're a non-person/worse than a Whitey/Uncle Tom et al.''

    Same for the poor and the working class. They've got to stay poor, or there's no cause to fight for.

    Trump brilliantly outflanked the dems here.

    With Brunell hopefully given a top job - she'll kick ass for the appalling living/crime conditions many live in. Trump's committed £1bn over several years/tax breaks to bring in jobs etc.

    If he can deliver - it'll break the link and make it possible for the GOP to get a fair hearing in the future. That can only be good for democracy. Many have been very brave here by standing up for what they believe.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Alistair said:

    The Democrats must feel in a pretty despairing state. However yet again in a Presidential election they won the popular vote. Only once since 1988 have the Republicans won the popular vote - in 2004 after 9/11 with Bus standing as a war president.

    But getting millions of votes in Northern California only gets you so far.
    Thus the "Invasion Project", 6 months before the 2016 election 2 million Californian Dem voters divide themselves into 20 100,000 strong cohorts and move to small Rep states. Montana and the Dakotas secured with 4 of those cohorts. Wisonsin, Michigin and Iowa seized with another 4. Still 1.2 million people left to sprinkle over various states to secure a landslide EV vote win.

    Yes, but when they move out to those states they will become Republicans.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited November 2016

    HYUFD said:

    Placards in the anti Trump demonstrations last night carried the message 'Muslims and immigrants are not the problem Wall Street is.' Michael Moore has issued an online message to supporters urging them to 'take back control of the Democratic Party' and to fight Trump as hard as Republixans fought Obama. Expect the Democrats to take a sharp shift to the left with an infiltration of U.S. Corbynistas while Elizabeth Warren looks a good bet to win the Democratic nomination to challenge President Trump in 2020

    Tulsi Gabbard is the one - practically perfect in every way.

    (This post in no way constitutes betting advice)
    Will have a look
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Placards in the anti Trump demonstrations last night carried the message 'Muslims and immigrants are not the problem Wall Street is.' Michael Moore has issued an online message to supporters urging them to 'take back control of the Democratic Party' and to fight Trump as hard as Republixans fought Obama. Expect the Democrats to take a sharp shift to the left with an infiltration of U.S. Corbynistas while Elizabeth Warren looks a good bet to win the Democratic nomination to challenge President Trump in 2020

    Tulsi Gabbard is the one - practically perfect in every way.

    (This post in no way constitutes betting advice)
    I don't see how someone from Hawaii could ever be president.
    Obama? Unless you've had a late conversion to birtherism, of course.

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    IanB2 said:

    Isn't is bizarre that Betfair will still take bets on the popular vote? Clinton at 1.02

    Will take a while for the market to be settled. Has rescued by betting position.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited November 2016
    IanB2 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Jonathan said:

    One silver lining for the British left is that we're now back in sync with the American left.

    Whatever solutions the American left come up with to Trump (and they will come up with solutions) will feed back to the UK left.

    For a while we've been out of sync. So the flow of ideas (e.g. Wilson benefitting from Kennedy and Blair benefitting from Clinton) has not been there.

    That's so daft it's mad

    The biggest failing of the UK left has been to import ideas wholesale from the US and to apply them in the UK. The conditions as we have seen this week in both countries are different. Just about every crap idea I can think of has been imported from the US and applied here as if the conditions are the same. And for the record the right isnt much better.

    Once we decide to start solving our own problems ourselves well be in with a chance of making progress.
    BLM being the most stupid and dangerous.
    Run by rich white folk....
    Given how many hours of US TV/activist videos I've watched - the most fascinating thing has been the number of outspoken black Dems voters who've just said Hell No! I'm Off The Plantation Now.

    I didn't understand the whole meme before I immersed myself. Now I get it. Blacks aren't allowed to go off the Democrat plantation - they've got to stay on to be accepted. Go off, and you're a non-person/worse than a Whitey/Uncle Tom et al.

    The more I've watched - the more revolting the mindset is of owning Black voters like slaves to be owned at the ballot box... We can see it in the faces of reporters when interviewing Black voters who voted for Trump 'how could you?!?!'
    Its like the bemusement that significant numbers of non-whites in the UK voting for Brexit.
    Except that here there is a clear pitch to them - stop EU immigration and it will be easier for people to come from Asia, etc. Whether you believe this or not (and the evidence suggests not) there is no doubt this was how the leave case came across to many particularly Asian voters.
    I am wondering if a similar "pitch" to latinos was missed by the media who jumped on the outrage bus about trump and Mexicans. The bbc interviewed a Latino near the border who basically said fuck yeah I want a wall, I don't want all the shit just over the there coming here. It scares me.

    Sky had a Mexican reporter on who said similar that he heard many latinos say they voted trump because he told the truth about this.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited November 2016

    Alistair said:

    The Democrats must feel in a pretty despairing state. However yet again in a Presidential election they won the popular vote. Only once since 1988 have the Republicans won the popular vote - in 2004 after 9/11 with Bus standing as a war president.

    But getting millions of votes in Northern California only gets you so far.
    Thus the "Invasion Project", 6 months before the 2016 election 2 million Californian Dem voters divide themselves into 20 100,000 strong cohorts and move to small Rep states. Montana and the Dakotas secured with 4 of those cohorts. Wisonsin, Michigin and Iowa seized with another 4. Still 1.2 million people left to sprinkle over various states to secure a landslide EV vote win.

    Yes, but when they move out to those states they will become Republicans.

    Oh blimey, they won't actually live there. Just buy a house and 30 acres of land with money found down the back of the sofa in their 10 square meter San Fran apartment.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Placards in the anti Trump demonstrations last night carried the message 'Muslims and immigrants are not the problem Wall Street is.' Michael Moore has issued an online message to supporters urging them to 'take back control of the Democratic Party' and to fight Trump as hard as Republixans fought Obama. Expect the Democrats to take a sharp shift to the left with an infiltration of U.S. Corbynistas while Elizabeth Warren looks a good bet to win the Democratic nomination to challenge President Trump in 2020

    Tulsi Gabbard is the one - practically perfect in every way.

    (This post in no way constitutes betting advice)
    I don't see how someone from Hawaii could ever be president.
    Obama? Unless you've had a late conversion to birtherism, of course.

    Winkey smiley face.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    HYUFD said:

    One thing that should be mentioned amidst all the talk of working class revolt - and it is happening everywhere - is that Trump did perfectly well with wealthy voters. They appear to have split eveny between himself and Clinton. So the elite who've done well out of globalisation didn't seem entirely hostile to Trump and his apparently anti-establishment rhetoric. If we are to assume that the wealthy are more likely to vote then it looks even more curious.

    Trump's biggest lead was with middle income voters, his lead amongst the highest earning voters was smaller than that Romney had and Trump lost college graduates while Romney won college graduates
    Basically, the great uneducated voted for Trump. Like Brexit.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited November 2016

    The Democrats must feel in a pretty despairing state. However yet again in a Presidential election they won the popular vote. Only once since 1988 have the Republicans won the popular vote - in 2004 after 9/11 with Bus standing as a war president.

    However in 2000 the Gore+Nader votes were comfortably more than those George W Bush won. In 2016 the Trump + Johnson votes are comfortably more than those Clinton got and even more than the totals for Clinton + Stein
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    One thing that should be mentioned amidst all the talk of working class revolt - and it is happening everywhere - is that Trump did perfectly well with wealthy voters. They appear to have split eveny between himself and Clinton. So the elite who've done well out of globalisation didn't seem entirely hostile to Trump and his apparently anti-establishment rhetoric. If we are to assume that the wealthy are more likely to vote then it looks even more curious.

    Trump's biggest lead was with middle income voters, his lead amongst the highest earning voters was smaller than that Romney had and Trump lost college graduates while Romney won college graduates
    Basically, the great uneducated voted for Trump. Like Brexit.

    The great uneducated make up most of any jury trial.

    Do you want to get rid of juries?

  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    IanB2 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Jonathan said:

    One silver lining for the British left is that we're now back in sync with the American left.

    Whatever solutions the American left come up with to Trump (and they will come up with solutions) will feed back to the UK left.

    For a while we've been out of sync. So the flow of ideas (e.g. Wilson benefitting from Kennedy and Blair benefitting from Clinton) has not been there.

    That's so daft it's mad

    snip

    Once we decide to start solving our own problems ourselves well be in with a chance of making progress.
    BLM being the most stupid and dangerous.
    Run by rich white folk....
    Given how many hours of US TV/activist videos I've watched - the most fascinating thing has been the number of outspoken black Dems voters who've just said Hell No! I'm Off The Plantation Now.

    I didn't understand the whole meme before I immersed myself. Now I get it. Blacks aren't allowed to go off the Democrat plantation - they've got to stay on to be accepted. Go off, and you're a non-person/worse than a Whitey/Uncle Tom et al.

    The more I've watched - the more revolting the mindset is of owning Black voters like slaves to be owned at the ballot box... We can see it in the faces of reporters when interviewing Black voters who voted for Trump 'how could you?!?!'
    Its like the bemusement that significant numbers of non-whites in the UK voting for Brexit.
    Except that here there is a clear pitch to them - stop EU immigration and it will be easier for people to come from Asia, etc. Whether you believe this or not (and the evidence suggests not) there is no doubt this was how the leave case came across to many particularly Asian voters.
    I am wondering if a similar pitch to latinos was missed by the media who jumped on the outrage bus about trump and Mexicans. The bbc interviewed a Latino near the border who basically said fuck yeah I want a wall, I don't want all the shit just over the there coming here. Sky had a Mexican reporter on who said similar that he heard many latinos say they voted trump because he told the truth about this.
    Yup - when you've emigrated legally from a lawless violent shithole - why would you want to invite it in?

    It's the most bizarre logic some applied here.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,721
    Alistair said:

    The Democrats must feel in a pretty despairing state. However yet again in a Presidential election they won the popular vote. Only once since 1988 have the Republicans won the popular vote - in 2004 after 9/11 with Bus standing as a war president.

    But getting millions of votes in Northern California only gets you so far.
    Thus the "Invasion Project", 6 months before the 2016 election 2 million Californian Dem voters divide themselves into 20 100,000 strong cohorts and move to small Rep states. Montana and the Dakotas secured with 4 of those cohorts. Wisonsin, Michigin and Iowa seized with another 4. Still 1.2 million people left to sprinkle over various states to secure a landslide EV vote win.
    An alternative is simply for California to state that it's now too big to be a single state and therefore they are splitting up and creating X new states. This way they not only increase their Electoral College Vote, but more significantly suddenly sweep the Senate massively.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,765
    IanB2 said:

    @edmundintokyo Well not letting immigrants in is certainly a plan. I suspect I don't need to tell you how hard that is going to be in the 21st Century. At least we're an island. Though with the Irish border issues even that's not technically true.

    The bigger issue IMHO is that we're heading toward 9 Billion people on the planet by mid century. Low wage labour doesn't need to immigrate here to undercut western wages. If western consumers feel too poor how is large scale onshoring of jobs via protectionist tariffs going to help ?

    Once upon a time the Green Left told us our lifestyles were unsustainable and the product of western historical priviledge. Now they tell us any drop in western living standards is " Austerity " and a needless policy choice.

    Once upon a time the New Right told us the world didn't owe us a living. Now they tell us the world does owe us a living. that one epochs living standards are a right.

    Curiously both the Green Left and the New Right have both changed positions at precisely the moment that history has vindicated them. it seems they'd rather be popular than proved correct.

    The world has however already reached 'peak child', pretty much, and therefore the end of global population growth is in sight. World populations will continue growing during our lifetimes, as existing children grow up in a medically safer world, but the base case is now that growth will level off at somewhere between 10 and 11 billion.
    In fairness this is only reason 247 why Inferno was crap.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741
    Afternoon all :)

    36 hours on (roughly) from the realisation Trump was going to win and at the moment it's glorious morning for some and the depths of despair for others.

    Trump's acceptance speech was an absolute masterpiece (and whoever wrote it deserves an award) and it's a fine example of the old adage about being able to fool all of the people some of the time.

    By channelling Reagan, JFK and even FDR Trump has told everyone what they want to hear and made them feel good about themselves and him - the markets are enthused and we even have the incredible reality of Fox News waxing euphorically about Trump spending billions of dollars on infrastructure projects in the Rust Belt and elsewhere.

    Had a Democrat (any Democrat) proposed that and they would have been screaming about the costs and where the money was coming from.

    Stodge's Eleventh Law of Politics states "it's much easier to tell people what they want to hear if it's a lie than telling them what they don't want to hear if it's the truth"

    You can fool all of the people some of the time but not me - string all Trump's promises and aspirations together and you get a platitudinous mush of sound bites and regurgitated waffle. There are neither answers nor solutions for the much derided (and now apparently much beloved) WWC as there aren't in May's platitudes.

    What then happens when the spell is broken and those who invested their hopes, aspirations and desire to be heard in the likes of Trump and May realise nothing has changed or will change ? If a populist ceases to be popular, they either fall or seek scapegoats for their failings - who will it be, plenty of options ?

    When the message that the only way you will be a little better off is if I and my rich friends become a lot better off stops resonating there may be those who argue the way to make everyone a lot better off will be to make you and your rich friends a lot worse off.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited November 2016
    IanB2 said:

    Isn't is bizarre that Betfair will still take bets on the popular vote? Clinton at 1.02

    Not any more ;)
    Alistair said:

    Stein up to 0.97% now. Little worried

    LOL Thats up quite a bit.

    Hipsters in slow counting Seattle is the worry I think
  • Good afternoon, everyone.

    F1: Ocon to drive for Force India next year.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/37938871
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Lennon said:

    Alistair said:

    The Democrats must feel in a pretty despairing state. However yet again in a Presidential election they won the popular vote. Only once since 1988 have the Republicans won the popular vote - in 2004 after 9/11 with Bus standing as a war president.

    But getting millions of votes in Northern California only gets you so far.
    Thus the "Invasion Project", 6 months before the 2016 election 2 million Californian Dem voters divide themselves into 20 100,000 strong cohorts and move to small Rep states. Montana and the Dakotas secured with 4 of those cohorts. Wisonsin, Michigin and Iowa seized with another 4. Still 1.2 million people left to sprinkle over various states to secure a landslide EV vote win.
    An alternative is simply for California to state that it's now too big to be a single state and therefore they are splitting up and creating X new states. This way they not only increase their Electoral College Vote, but more significantly suddenly sweep the Senate massively.
    My favourite bit of epic stupidity by SJWers this election is the demand for California to secede.

    Perhaps they can collectively foot stamp along the San Andreas fault and see how that works out.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    PlatoSaid said:

    Lennon said:

    Alistair said:

    The Democrats must feel in a pretty despairing state. However yet again in a Presidential election they won the popular vote. Only once since 1988 have the Republicans won the popular vote - in 2004 after 9/11 with Bus standing as a war president.

    But getting millions of votes in Northern California only gets you so far.
    Thus the "Invasion Project", 6 months before the 2016 election 2 million Californian Dem voters divide themselves into 20 100,000 strong cohorts and move to small Rep states. Montana and the Dakotas secured with 4 of those cohorts. Wisonsin, Michigin and Iowa seized with another 4. Still 1.2 million people left to sprinkle over various states to secure a landslide EV vote win.
    An alternative is simply for California to state that it's now too big to be a single state and therefore they are splitting up and creating X new states. This way they not only increase their Electoral College Vote, but more significantly suddenly sweep the Senate massively.
    My favourite bit of epic stupidity by SJWers this election is the demand for California to secede.

    Perhaps they can collectively foot stamp along the San Andreas fault and see how that works out.
    Trump led the popular vote until the California votes came in. Without California Trump would have won the popular vote
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited November 2016
    PlatoSaid said:


    Yup - when you've emigrated legally from a lawless violent shithole - why would you want to invite it in?

    It's the most bizarre logic some applied here.

    One other random hypothesis. I remember speaking to a couple of Poles I know prior to Brexit vote and they were anti any further expansion of EU and were anti that Romania etc joined. There was an element of shall we say sterotyping of Romanians, but also they were concerned that they had got properly qualified back in Poland, come here, worked hard and made a go of things..they were concerned about how even more immigration from low wage countries could undercut them or limit their future wages rises.

    Lets call it personal protectionism.

    Perhaps there is an element of that here too. Cubans in Florida have in general done very well since they fled Castro, legal Mexicans could be undercut by illegals who will work for less...

    I don't know, just a thought.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    HYUFD said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Lennon said:

    Alistair said:

    The Democrats must feel in a pretty despairing state. However yet again in a Presidential election they won the popular vote. Only once since 1988 have the Republicans won the popular vote - in 2004 after 9/11 with Bus standing as a war president.

    But getting millions of votes in Northern California only gets you so far.
    Thus the "Invasion Project", 6 months before the 2016 election 2 million Californian Dem voters divide themselves into 20 100,000 strong cohorts and move to small Rep states. Montana and the Dakotas secured with 4 of those cohorts. Wisonsin, Michigin and Iowa seized with another 4. Still 1.2 million people left to sprinkle over various states to secure a landslide EV vote win.
    An alternative is simply for California to state that it's now too big to be a single state and therefore they are splitting up and creating X new states. This way they not only increase their Electoral College Vote, but more significantly suddenly sweep the Senate massively.
    My favourite bit of epic stupidity by SJWers this election is the demand for California to secede.

    Perhaps they can collectively foot stamp along the San Andreas fault and see how that works out.
    Trump led the popular vote until the California votes came in. Without California Trump would have won the popular vote
    I can't recall who did it - but handing out citizenship like candy to illegals in California made it virtually impossible for a GOPer to win it again for decades.

    Arnie wouldn't get a sniff at it nowadays.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535
    PlatoSaid said:

    My favourite bit of epic stupidity by SJWers this election is the demand for California to secede.

    Perhaps they can collectively foot stamp along the San Andreas fault and see how that works out.

    When the big one finally comes they will need the rest of the US to help them recover, including all those horrible fly-over red states.

  • IanB2 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Jonathan said:

    One silver lining for the British left is that we're now back in sync with the American left.

    Whatever solutions the American left come up with to Trump (and they will come up with solutions) will feed back to the UK left.

    For a while we've been out of sync. So the flow of ideas (e.g. Wilson benefitting from Kennedy and Blair benefitting from Clinton) has not been there.

    That's so daft it's mad

    The biggest failing of the UK left has been to import ideas wholesale from the US and to apply them in the UK. The conditions as we have seen this week in both countries are different. Just about every crap idea I can think of has been imported from the US and applied here as if the conditions are the same. And for the record the right isnt much better.

    Once we decide to start solving our own problems ourselves well be in with a chance of making progress.
    BLM being the most stupid and dangerous.
    Run by rich white folk....
    Given how many hours of US TV/activist videos I've watched - the most fascinating thing has been the number of outspoken black Dems voters who've just said Hell No! I'm Off The Plantation Now.

    I didn't understand the whole meme before I immersed myself. Now I get it. Blacks aren't allowed to go off the Democrat plantation - they've got to stay on to be accepted. Go off, and you're a non-person/worse than a Whitey/Uncle Tom et al.

    The more I've watched - the more revolting the mindset is of owning Black voters like slaves to be owned at the ballot box... We can see it in the faces of reporters when interviewing Black voters who voted for Trump 'how could you?!?!'
    Its like the bemusement that significant numbers of non-whites in the UK voting for Brexit.
    Except that here there is a clear pitch to them - stop EU immigration and it will be easier for people to come from Asia, etc. Whether you believe this or not (and the evidence suggests not) there is no doubt this was how the leave case came across to many particularly Asian voters.
    Sounds as if that policy is being enacted already, as May's trip to India and the negotiations about visas for trade deals demonstrated. Brexit will necessitate an increase of immigration from India. I doubt the Leave-voting WWC will be particularly enamoured, but they can get stuffed.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    One thing that should be mentioned amidst all the talk of working class revolt - and it is happening everywhere - is that Trump did perfectly well with wealthy voters. They appear to have split eveny between himself and Clinton. So the elite who've done well out of globalisation didn't seem entirely hostile to Trump and his apparently anti-establishment rhetoric. If we are to assume that the wealthy are more likely to vote then it looks even more curious.

    Trump's biggest lead was with middle income voters, his lead amongst the highest earning voters was smaller than that Romney had and Trump lost college graduates while Romney won college graduates
    Basically, the great uneducated voted for Trump. Like Brexit.
    The demographics were certainly similar
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    PlatoSaid said:


    Yup - when you've emigrated legally from a lawless violent shithole - why would you want to invite it in?

    It's the most bizarre logic some applied here.

    One other random hypothesis. I remember speaking to a couple of Poles I know prior to Brexit vote and they were anti any further expansion of EU and were anti that Romania etc joined. There was an element of shall we say sterotyping of Romanians, but also they were concerned that they had got properly qualified back in Poland, come here, worked hard and made a go of things..they were concerned about how even more immigration from low wage countries could undercut them or limit their future wages rises.

    Perhaps there is an element of that here too. Cubans in Florida have in general done very well since they fled Castro, legal Mexicans could be undercut by illegals who will work for less...

    I don't know, just a thought.
    I couldn't emigrate to the USA/get a Green Card. But an illegal virtually illiterate Mexican can because a coyote took them across the desert for $4k?

    It's vote farming by Democrats - and it's beyond obvious.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited November 2016

    IanB2 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Jonathan said:

    One silver lining for the British left is that we're now back in sync with the American left.

    Whatever solutions the American left come up with to Trump (and they will come up with solutions) will feed back to the UK left.

    For a while we've been out of sync. So the flow of ideas (e.g. Wilson benefitting from Kennedy and Blair benefitting from Clinton) has not been there.

    That's so daft it's mad

    The biggest failing of the UK left has been to import ideas wholesale from the US and to apply them in the UK. The conditions as we have seen this week in both countries are different. Just about every crap idea I can think of has been imported from the US and applied here as if the conditions are the same. And for the record the right isnt much better.

    Once we decide to start solving our own problems ourselves well be in with a chance of making progress.
    BLM being the most stupid and dangerous.
    Run by rich white folk....
    Given how many hours of US TV/activist videos I've watched - the most fascinating thing has been the number of outspoken black Dems voters who've just said Hell No! I'm Off The Plantation Now.

    I didn't understand the whole meme before I immersed myself. Now I get it. Blacks aren't allowed to go off the Democrat plantation - they've got to stay on to be accepted. Go off, and you're a non-person/worse than a Whitey/Uncle Tom et al.

    The more I've watched - the more revolting the mindset is of owning Black voters like slaves to be owned at the ballot box... We can see it in the faces of reporters when interviewing Black voters who voted for Trump 'how could you?!?!'
    Its like the bemusement that significant numbers of non-whites in the UK voting for Brexit.
    Except that here there is a clear pitch to them - stop EU immigration and it will be easier for people to come from Asia, etc. Whether you believe this or not (and the evidence suggests not) there is no doubt this was how the leave case came across to many particularly Asian voters.
    Sounds as if that policy is being enacted already, as May's trip to India and the negotiations about visas for trade deals demonstrated. Brexit will necessitate an increase of immigration from India. I doubt the Leave-voting WWC will be particularly enamoured, but they can get stuffed.
    May said there would not be relaxation of visas from India, any increase in migration has to be matched by the Indians helping return those in the UK illegally is what she actually said
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,046
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Placards in the anti Trump demonstrations last night carried the message 'Muslims and immigrants are not the problem Wall Street is.' Michael Moore has issued an online message to supporters urging them to 'take back control of the Democratic Party' and to fight Trump as hard as Republixans fought Obama. Expect the Democrats to take a sharp shift to the left with an infiltration of U.S. Corbynistas while Elizabeth Warren looks a good bet to win the Democratic nomination to challenge President Trump in 2020

    Tulsi Gabbard is the one - practically perfect in every way.

    (This post in no way constitutes betting advice)
    Will have a look
    I was also positive Priti Patel would be the next Tory leader after Cameron.
  • PlatoSaid said:


    Yup - when you've emigrated legally from a lawless violent shithole - why would you want to invite it in?

    It's the most bizarre logic some applied here.

    One other random hypothesis. I remember speaking to a couple of Poles I know prior to Brexit vote and they were anti any further expansion of EU and were anti that Romania etc joined. There was an element of shall we say sterotyping of Romanians, but also they were concerned that they had got properly qualified back in Poland, come here, worked hard and made a go of things..they were concerned about how even more immigration from low wage countries could undercut them or limit their future wages rises.

    Lets call it personal protectionism.

    Perhaps there is an element of that here too. Cubans in Florida have in general done very well since they fled Castro, legal Mexicans could be undercut by illegals who will work for less...

    I don't know, just a thought.
    IIUC there is actually a good economic justification for this. Low-skilled immigration raises wages for everyone except the lowest-skilled native workers immediately, raises wages for the lowest-skilled with a time lag of a couple of years, but depresses wages of existing immigrants.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,765
    PClipp said:

    DavidL said:

    I think the other point is that with turnover just over 50% is that it is all about the base. Elections are almost entirely about getting your base enthusiastic enough to vote, something Clinton failed to do. From memory it was something like 1 in 4 voters were contacted by Clinton, 1 in 6 by Trump and only 1 in 12 by both.

    The scary part of this is that it creates the politics of the deaf. Trying to find the traditional middle ground does not work. Everything is about getting out your base and boosting their enthusiasm. Trump did that and he won.

    An interesting thought, Mr L, and one that we could apply to this country too.

    How enthused is the Tory base by the performance of Mrs May and her government?

    Cameron could do this to a far greater extent, because he posed as a liberal conservative, and he had the gloss from a relatively successful time in coalition with the Liberal Democrats.

    But I have the feeling that nobody is feeling inspired by Mrs May. The Tories failed to get their base inspired in the recent Witney byelection, and they lost 20,000 votes, and almost lost the seat. If Clinton was a poor choice for the Democrats, then May is an equally poor choice for our Conservatives. They don`t have anybody else either.
    I fear you are right. But with 70% turnout there is still enough swing voters in the UK to swing the election. In the US I am not sure that is the case.
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,429
    Interesting blog by Ian Warren http://election-data.co.uk/how-do-you-feel-dont-ask on big data v emotional feelings.

    In these terms Brexit was love EU v control; and governments historically have always blamed the EU rather than supported its strengths.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    I'm definitely detecting a spill-over effect of Wikileaks on CNN.

    They've upped their game over the last week or so and are much more even handed - and hugely more so than Sky. Good for them - being the Clinton News Network for the last year or so has seriously damaged their brand.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081
    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    Isn't is bizarre that Betfair will still take bets on the popular vote? Clinton at 1.02

    Not any more ;)
    Alistair said:

    Stein up to 0.97% now. Little worried

    LOL Thats up quite a bit.

    Hipsters in slow counting Seattle is the worry I think
    There is still a batch of money available at 1.01, and there aren't many places to earn a 1% return in just a few days nowadays!

    Post-spliff Seattle slowly counting the votes into piles a day after everyone else has finished suggests that this is the place to be. Go Stein!
  • Lennon said:

    Alistair said:

    The Democrats must feel in a pretty despairing state. However yet again in a Presidential election they won the popular vote. Only once since 1988 have the Republicans won the popular vote - in 2004 after 9/11 with Bus standing as a war president.

    But getting millions of votes in Northern California only gets you so far.
    Thus the "Invasion Project", 6 months before the 2016 election 2 million Californian Dem voters divide themselves into 20 100,000 strong cohorts and move to small Rep states. Montana and the Dakotas secured with 4 of those cohorts. Wisonsin, Michigin and Iowa seized with another 4. Still 1.2 million people left to sprinkle over various states to secure a landslide EV vote win.
    An alternative is simply for California to state that it's now too big to be a single state and therefore they are splitting up and creating X new states. This way they not only increase their Electoral College Vote, but more significantly suddenly sweep the Senate massively.
    This was Peter Thiel's plan, the idea was to carve out a Republican-voting state or two.
  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    When I was a lecturer, I never heard a colleague say anything disparaging about a student's intelligence - and I worked with some of the most intelligent people in the country... Yet here...
  • California is a big state and a nailed on democrat win. So I strongly suspect vast numbers of right leaning folk in CA just stay home on election day. If the popular vote meant anything electorally it would change accordingly.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    PlatoSaid said:

    PlatoSaid said:


    Yup - when you've emigrated legally from a lawless violent shithole - why would you want to invite it in?

    It's the most bizarre logic some applied here.

    One other random hypothesis. I remember speaking to a couple of Poles I know prior to Brexit vote and they were anti any further expansion of EU and were anti that Romania etc joined. There was an element of shall we say sterotyping of Romanians, but also they were concerned that they had got properly qualified back in Poland, come here, worked hard and made a go of things..they were concerned about how even more immigration from low wage countries could undercut them or limit their future wages rises.

    Perhaps there is an element of that here too. Cubans in Florida have in general done very well since they fled Castro, legal Mexicans could be undercut by illegals who will work for less...

    I don't know, just a thought.
    I couldn't emigrate to the USA/get a Green Card. But an illegal virtually illiterate Mexican can because a coyote took them across the desert for $4k?

    It's vote farming by Democrats - and it's beyond obvious.
    Regan/Bush did an illegal alien amnesty by executive order. Was that vote farming too?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081

    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    One thing that should be mentioned amidst all the talk of working class revolt - and it is happening everywhere - is that Trump did perfectly well with wealthy voters. They appear to have split eveny between himself and Clinton. So the elite who've done well out of globalisation didn't seem entirely hostile to Trump and his apparently anti-establishment rhetoric. If we are to assume that the wealthy are more likely to vote then it looks even more curious.

    Trump's biggest lead was with middle income voters, his lead amongst the highest earning voters was smaller than that Romney had and Trump lost college graduates while Romney won college graduates
    Basically, the great uneducated voted for Trump. Like Brexit.

    The great uneducated make up most of any jury trial.

    Do you want to get rid of juries?

    In principle I think the jury system is a marvellous British institution.

    In practice I sat on a jury at Snaresbrook Crown Court some years back and, as soon as the evidence from the policeman on the scene came to be considered, a juror interjected that evidence from a policeman clearly couldn't be trusted, and several fellow jurors quickly came to his support. Throughout the rest of our considerations any evidence from the Police was immediately discounted and the eventual finding was not guilty (on a majority verdict).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    PlatoSaid said:

    HYUFD said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Lennon said:

    Alistair said:

    The Democrats must feel in a pretty despairing state. However yet again in a Presidential election they won the popular vote. Only once since 1988 have the Republicans won the popular vote - in 2004 after 9/11 with Bus standing as a war president.

    But getting millions of votes in Northern California only gets you so far.
    Thus the "Invasion Project", 6 months before the 2016 election 2 million Californian Dem voters divide themselves into 20 100,000 strong cohorts and move to small Rep states. Montana and the Dakotas secured with 4 of those cohorts. Wisonsin, Michigin and Iowa seized with another 4. Still 1.2 million people left to sprinkle over various states to secure a landslide EV vote win.
    An alternative is simply for California to state that it's now too big to be a single state and therefore they are splitting up and creating X new states. This way they not only increase their Electoral College Vote, but more significantly suddenly sweep the Senate massively.
    My favourite bit of epic stupidity by SJWers this election is the demand for California to secede.

    Perhaps they can collectively foot stamp along the San Andreas fault and see how that works out.
    Trump led the popular vote until the California votes came in. Without California Trump would have won the popular vote
    I can't recall who did it - but handing out citizenship like candy to illegals in California made it virtually impossible for a GOPer to win it again for decades.

    Arnie wouldn't get a sniff at it nowadays.
    Trump won states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania Republican presidential candidates have not won since 1984 and 1988 as the demographics are still similar
    If the demographics of California were the same as 1984 and 1988 Trump would probably have won California as Reagan and Bush Snr did
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    edited November 2016
    Interesting piece on Sky regarding Brexit & Fishing.

    Currently 1 million tons of fish are caught annually in UK's territorial water of which the UK's allocation is 15%. Didn't realize it was such a crap deal.
  • Lennon said:

    Alistair said:

    The Democrats must feel in a pretty despairing state. However yet again in a Presidential election they won the popular vote. Only once since 1988 have the Republicans won the popular vote - in 2004 after 9/11 with Bus standing as a war president.

    But getting millions of votes in Northern California only gets you so far.
    Thus the "Invasion Project", 6 months before the 2016 election 2 million Californian Dem voters divide themselves into 20 100,000 strong cohorts and move to small Rep states. Montana and the Dakotas secured with 4 of those cohorts. Wisonsin, Michigin and Iowa seized with another 4. Still 1.2 million people left to sprinkle over various states to secure a landslide EV vote win.
    An alternative is simply for California to state that it's now too big to be a single state and therefore they are splitting up and creating X new states. This way they not only increase their Electoral College Vote, but more significantly suddenly sweep the Senate massively.
    This was Peter Thiel's plan, the idea was to carve out a Republican-voting state or two.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six_Californias

    Would help Dems in the Senate but Reps in the EC.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Placards in the anti Trump demonstrations last night carried the message 'Muslims and immigrants are not the problem Wall Street is.' Michael Moore has issued an online message to supporters urging them to 'take back control of the Democratic Party' and to fight Trump as hard as Republixans fought Obama. Expect the Democrats to take a sharp shift to the left with an infiltration of U.S. Corbynistas while Elizabeth Warren looks a good bet to win the Democratic nomination to challenge President Trump in 2020

    Tulsi Gabbard is the one - practically perfect in every way.

    (This post in no way constitutes betting advice)
    Will have a look
    I was also positive Priti Patel would be the next Tory leader after Cameron.
    May be worth a small long shot bet but she is only a representative, presidential nominees are normally Senators or Governors and Warren is a Senator
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    john_zims said:

    Interesting piece on Sky regarding Brexit & Fishing.

    Currently 1 million tons of fish are caught annually in UK's territorial water of which the UK's allocation is 15%. Didn't realize it was such a crap deal.

    There's been some selling of quotas, I think. Could b wrong.
  • HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    That's so daft it's mad

    The biggest failing of the UK left has been to import ideas wholesale from the US and to apply them in the UK. The conditions as we have seen this week in both countries are different. Just about every crap idea I can think of has been imported from the US and applied here as if the conditions are the same. And for the record the right isnt much better.

    Once we decide to start solving our own problems ourselves well be in with a chance of making progress.

    BLM being the most stupid and dangerous.
    Run by rich white folk....
    Given how many hours of US TV/activist videos I've watched - the most fascinating thing has been the number of outspoken black Dems voters who've just said Hell No! I'm Off The Plantation Now.

    I didn't understand the whole meme before I immersed myself. Now I get it. Blacks aren't allowed to go off the Democrat plantation - they've got to stay on to be accepted. Go off, and you're a non-person/worse than a Whitey/Uncle Tom et al.

    The more I've watched - the more revolting the mindset is of owning Black voters like slaves to be owned at the ballot box... We can see it in the faces of reporters when interviewing Black voters who voted for Trump 'how could you?!?!'
    Its like the bemusement that significant numbers of non-whites in the UK voting for Brexit.
    Except that here there is a clear pitch to them - stop EU immigration and it will be easier for people to come from Asia, etc. Whether you believe this or not (and the evidence suggests not) there is no doubt this was how the leave case came across to many particularly Asian voters.
    Sounds as if that policy is being enacted already, as May's trip to India and the negotiations about visas for trade deals demonstrated. Brexit will necessitate an increase of immigration from India. I doubt the Leave-voting WWC will be particularly enamoured, but they can get stuffed.
    May said there would not be relaxation of visas from India, any increase in migration has to be matched by the Indians helping return those in the UK illegally is what she actually said
    How is India supposed to hunt down and deport illegal immigrants in Britain? I thought that was the job of the Home Office, or are we going to do some sort of outsourcing? I'm surprised that anyone fell for that rather feeble piece of government spin.
  • Lennon said:

    Alistair said:

    The Democrats must feel in a pretty despairing state. However yet again in a Presidential election they won the popular vote. Only once since 1988 have the Republicans won the popular vote - in 2004 after 9/11 with Bus standing as a war president.

    But getting millions of votes in Northern California only gets you so far.
    Thus the "Invasion Project", 6 months before the 2016 election 2 million Californian Dem voters divide themselves into 20 100,000 strong cohorts and move to small Rep states. Montana and the Dakotas secured with 4 of those cohorts. Wisonsin, Michigin and Iowa seized with another 4. Still 1.2 million people left to sprinkle over various states to secure a landslide EV vote win.
    An alternative is simply for California to state that it's now too big to be a single state and therefore they are splitting up and creating X new states. This way they not only increase their Electoral College Vote, but more significantly suddenly sweep the Senate massively.
    Labour voters in Bootle might as well re-locate to Nuneaton.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Andrew Neil
    Republicans control White House, Senate (52-48), House (239-193), Governor Mansions (33-15). Not bad for party on "wrong end of demography"
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    A guest on Radio 5 this morning has got to the bottom of it all. It turns out that white women have voted to maintain their white privilege at the expense of their female oppression.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081
    DavidL said:

    PClipp said:

    DavidL said:

    I think the other point is that with turnover just over 50% is that it is all about the base. Elections are almost entirely about getting your base enthusiastic enough to vote, something Clinton failed to do. From memory it was something like 1 in 4 voters were contacted by Clinton, 1 in 6 by Trump and only 1 in 12 by both.

    The scary part of this is that it creates the politics of the deaf. Trying to find the traditional middle ground does not work. Everything is about getting out your base and boosting their enthusiasm. Trump did that and he won.

    An interesting thought, Mr L, and one that we could apply to this country too.

    How enthused is the Tory base by the performance of Mrs May and her government?

    Cameron could do this to a far greater extent, because he posed as a liberal conservative, and he had the gloss from a relatively successful time in coalition with the Liberal Democrats.

    But I have the feeling that nobody is feeling inspired by Mrs May. The Tories failed to get their base inspired in the recent Witney byelection, and they lost 20,000 votes, and almost lost the seat. If Clinton was a poor choice for the Democrats, then May is an equally poor choice for our Conservatives. They don`t have anybody else either.
    I fear you are right. But with 70% turnout there is still enough swing voters in the UK to swing the election. In the US I am not sure that is the case.
    Indeed. Pick four consecutive UK elections and the local swings between Labour, Tory and LibDem across them is usually quite considerable. The most remarkable thing about the state vote totals from the four elections given in the thread header is how small the shifts in party support have been across a long and history-filled period of time.
  • A guest on Radio 5 this morning has got to the bottom of it all. It turns out that white women have voted to maintain their white privilege at the expense of their female oppression.

    Sounds like the guest BBC One had on last night who blamed everything on there being too many straight white men in positions of power...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081

    Sean_F said:

    Incidentally I see the bookies are taking money from fools over the French presidency. They have cut Le Pen from 6 to 2/1 barely touching anyone else's odds. Ladbrokes at 15/8 are having a laugh!!

    If you would like 2 or even 3/1, I'll give it to you :)

    I don't consider 2/1 attractive odds for Le Pen. Let's wait for her odds to lengthen again.
    I think they are very unattractive odds! I am already -400 though...

    I don't think I will tweak much until the results of the LR primary. I've written a thread header on that for Mike, although the odds will now be wrong.
    I have just laid off most of my earlier Le Pen bet, made in the expectation that something would come along that made her chances look significantly better.

    The beauty of the French system is that people have a week to sober up and smell the coffee before making their final choice, which is lots of time for the majority of sensible French people to work out out best to avoid electing a neo-fascist to represent them.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,765
    weejonnie said:

    glw said:

    You'd think they would but I haven't yet seen any sign that the people who didn't get it before now get it.

    There are a whole bunch of news articles and comment today saying that the NSA in Trump's hands is a danger.
    I don't think Trump will have heard of it. The NSA (as any internal Government Organisation) is a danger - and was a danger when under Obama's control. Basically we now seem to be entering the era of left-wing conspiracy theories. I mean the IRS was used by Obama as a tool of repression against 'right-wing' opponents.

    Who was it who said "The worst thing a citizen can hear is someone announcing themselves as "Good morning, I am from the Government and am here to help you" - or words to that effect?
    Ronald Reagan. Said that, "I am from the government and I am here to help" was the scariest sentence in English. Nonsense of course but it made the point.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,721

    Interesting blog by Ian Warren http://election-data.co.uk/how-do-you-feel-dont-ask on big data v emotional feelings.

    In these terms Brexit was love EU v control; and governments historically have always blamed the EU rather than supported its strengths.

    Thanks for highlighting that - it fits well with a lot of what Scott Adams was saying about Trump (and getting roundly derided for it).

    There is something else as well which people don't seem to have quite recognised:

    Everyone thought that in a social media age we would have a politics of 'truth' - where anything anyone says can be instantly fact checked and analysed, surely we would resort to voting on evidence and analysis right?

    Wrong. What actually seems to happen is that in a social media age there is simply TOO MUCH information, and we cant' process it all and have no real means of filtering. How does your mind switch from a gif of a cat falling off a table, to a friends new baby, to a political statement - it has to work at the base level - that of emotion. The most effective political campaigns, and most widely shared 'memes' in social media are those that appeal to emotion.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    new thread....
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited November 2016

    A guest on Radio 5 this morning has got to the bottom of it all. It turns out that white women have voted to maintain their white privilege at the expense of their female oppression.

    Walking on the beaches looking at the peaches.... (Stranglers)
    Is she trying to get out of that c....

    Meanwhile on R5 right now is the unique Sarah Brett who said "listeners keep sending your suggestions of how to cheer up after the Trump win. Next up is Niamh Cusak who is in a play about Syphillis and incest"
  • IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Incidentally I see the bookies are taking money from fools over the French presidency. They have cut Le Pen from 6 to 2/1 barely touching anyone else's odds. Ladbrokes at 15/8 are having a laugh!!

    If you would like 2 or even 3/1, I'll give it to you :)

    I don't consider 2/1 attractive odds for Le Pen. Let's wait for her odds to lengthen again.
    I think they are very unattractive odds! I am already -400 though...

    I don't think I will tweak much until the results of the LR primary. I've written a thread header on that for Mike, although the odds will now be wrong.
    I have just laid off most of my earlier Le Pen bet, made in the expectation that something would come along that made her chances look significantly better.

    The beauty of the French system is that people have a week to sober up and smell the coffee before making their final choice, which is lots of time for the majority of sensible French people to work out out best to avoid electing a neo-fascist to represent them.
    If she's up against the right, she loses; if she's up against the left, she wins.

    She's up against the right.
  • Lennon said:

    Interesting blog by Ian Warren http://election-data.co.uk/how-do-you-feel-dont-ask on big data v emotional feelings.

    In these terms Brexit was love EU v control; and governments historically have always blamed the EU rather than supported its strengths.

    Thanks for highlighting that - it fits well with a lot of what Scott Adams was saying about Trump (and getting roundly derided for it).

    There is something else as well which people don't seem to have quite recognised:

    Everyone thought that in a social media age we would have a politics of 'truth' - where anything anyone says can be instantly fact checked and analysed, surely we would resort to voting on evidence and analysis right?

    Wrong. What actually seems to happen is that in a social media age there is simply TOO MUCH information, and we cant' process it all and have no real means of filtering. How does your mind switch from a gif of a cat falling off a table, to a friends new baby, to a political statement - it has to work at the base level - that of emotion. The most effective political campaigns, and most widely shared 'memes' in social media are those that appeal to emotion.
    I have a theory that people are more ignorant, because people only follow things they like it becomes an echo chamber. Not just on twitter, but even silly things like Spotify and YouTube...I know I am really bad for not going out and checking out new acts, rather just firing up artists I like and occasionally taking a recommendation from Spotify, which of course is based upon my listening habits.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,765
    rcs1000 said:

    Max - I agree that the issue is political correctness. Where will the money for Trump's infrastructure plan come from?

    His policy is to massively increase the government deficit.
    In fairness if you are going to have QE (not necessarily a good idea) then using it to employ people to repair the infrastructure is a lot better idea than boosting Wall Street's executive bonuses.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,046
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Placards in the anti Trump demonstrations last night carried the message 'Muslims and immigrants are not the problem Wall Street is.' Michael Moore has issued an online message to supporters urging them to 'take back control of the Democratic Party' and to fight Trump as hard as Republixans fought Obama. Expect the Democrats to take a sharp shift to the left with an infiltration of U.S. Corbynistas while Elizabeth Warren looks a good bet to win the Democratic nomination to challenge President Trump in 2020

    Tulsi Gabbard is the one - practically perfect in every way.

    (This post in no way constitutes betting advice)
    Will have a look
    I was also positive Priti Patel would be the next Tory leader after Cameron.
    May be worth a small long shot bet but she is only a representative, presidential nominees are normally Senators or Governors and Warren is a Senator
    Isn't Warren a bit bonkers and claimed she was of native American descent when she was no such thing?

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,046
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Placards in the anti Trump demonstrations last night carried the message 'Muslims and immigrants are not the problem Wall Street is.' Michael Moore has issued an online message to supporters urging them to 'take back control of the Democratic Party' and to fight Trump as hard as Republixans fought Obama. Expect the Democrats to take a sharp shift to the left with an infiltration of U.S. Corbynistas while Elizabeth Warren looks a good bet to win the Democratic nomination to challenge President Trump in 2020

    Tulsi Gabbard is the one - practically perfect in every way.

    (This post in no way constitutes betting advice)
    Will have a look
    I was also positive Priti Patel would be the next Tory leader after Cameron.
    May be worth a small long shot bet but she is only a representative, presidential nominees are normally Senators or Governors and Warren is a Senator
    Star quality though. And very easy on the eye, which shouldn't matter, but does.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,765
    john_zims said:

    @GIN1138

    'Here's the one we've all be waiting for:

    Polly Toynbee on The Donald

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/10/brexit-trump-whitelash-politicians-must-not-pander'


    It's social democracy or the end of civilization,what a load of crap.

    No, no you've got it completely wrong. Social Democracy is civilisation. All else is barbarism.
  • HYUFD said:

    Placards in the anti Trump demonstrations last night carried the message 'Muslims and immigrants are not the problem Wall Street is.' Michael Moore has issued an online message to supporters urging them to 'take back control of the Democratic Party' and to fight Trump as hard as Republixans fought Obama. Expect the Democrats to take a sharp shift to the left with an infiltration of U.S. Corbynistas while Elizabeth Warren looks a good bet to win the Democratic nomination to challenge President Trump in 2020

    Tulsi Gabbard is the one - practically perfect in every way.

    (This post in no way constitutes betting advice)
    Well SeanT would vote for her, on the "boffing" principle he established re Palin.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited November 2016

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Placards in the anti Trump demonstrations last night carried the message 'Muslims and immigrants are not the problem Wall Street is.' Michael Moore has issued an online message to supporters urging them to 'take back control of the Democratic Party' and to fight Trump as hard as Republixans fought Obama. Expect the Democrats to take a sharp shift to the left with an infiltration of U.S. Corbynistas while Elizabeth Warren looks a good bet to win the Democratic nomination to challenge President Trump in 2020

    Tulsi Gabbard is the one - practically perfect in every way.

    (This post in no way constitutes betting advice)
    Will have a look
    I was also positive Priti Patel would be the next Tory leader after Cameron.
    May be worth a small long shot bet but she is only a representative, presidential nominees are normally Senators or Governors and Warren is a Senator
    Star quality though. And very easy on the eye, which shouldn't matter, but does.
    One assumes Mazie Hirono will want a second term in 2018, but she will be 71.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited November 2016
    .
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081
    OT (although not entirely), watch this and I guarantee it is ten minutes of your life you won't regret spending

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fTznEIZRkLg
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081

    HYUFD said:

    Placards in the anti Trump demonstrations last night carried the message 'Muslims and immigrants are not the problem Wall Street is.' Michael Moore has issued an online message to supporters urging them to 'take back control of the Democratic Party' and to fight Trump as hard as Republixans fought Obama. Expect the Democrats to take a sharp shift to the left with an infiltration of U.S. Corbynistas while Elizabeth Warren looks a good bet to win the Democratic nomination to challenge President Trump in 2020

    Tulsi Gabbard is the one - practically perfect in every way.

    (This post in no way constitutes betting advice)
    Well SeanT would vote for her, on the "boffing" principle he established re Palin.
    The trouble with SeanT is that he likes having the opinion rather more than he likes doing the thinking bit beforehand.
This discussion has been closed.