They're over the shock and horror and now they're thinking.
It must also be plainly obvious to the EU that the UK population is torn over this issue.
About 52 to 48!
Call it 50/50 with Margin of Error.
OK - International Women's Day is over so I can resume my responsibilities of cooking dinner - Garlic and Chili chicken in stir-fried mushrooms, yellow peppers and noodles.
Having said that, I cooked dinner yesterday too....
tsk
I always cook in my house, my wife doesnt bother
when's International Men;s Day ?
We were having the conversation at work the other day (IT department) most of the chefs in the house were men. Is this a profound societal change that has simply passed us all by. WRT International Men's Day - it's on Saturday. Or any other day when the Six nations is on.
I feel the EU is beginning to realise just how strong its negotiation position is, particularly if they're paying close attention to UK domestic politics where half of the legislature, and even some of those within the governing party can stir up trouble if there is a poor deal struck.
They should not yield or bend. We need to be taught a very serious and painful lesson here. And take it we must, to back out now would have us labelled as losers and quitters for all eternity.
In this instance humble pie is well worth eating. The butterfly effect of overflowing food banks can only be guessed at but if the panic of 1p on national insurance is a pointer then we're in febrile times
The different is 'about the right level to reward enterprise and risk capital.'
Yes, arguably it might about the right level to reward enterprise and risk capital, although there are also other rewards for that (notably Entrepreneurs' Relief on CGT). The problem is that many micro-businesses don't involve much enterprise and certainly don't require much risk capital, but are driven entirely by the tax treatment.
As you've observed elsewhere, the problem is not the actual rules but the way that they've been abused by personal service companies.
A beefed up IR35 - something along the lines of, if you're a one person company, any two of the following criteria make you an employee: only one customer, cannot be replaced by anyone else, work at the whim of your one customer, work at the customer site, wear company uniform, use only company owned tools etc - is surely the answer.
I run a micro business that has grown from little capital to now being very well capitalised, employing two staff as well as myself etc.
I'm pretty confident that the Ltd company dividend set up has helped me grow larger and faster.
They're over the shock and horror and now they're thinking.
It must also be plainly obvious to the EU that the UK population is torn over this issue.
About 52 to 48!
Call it 50/50 with Margin of Error.
OK - International Women's Day is over so I can resume my responsibilities of cooking dinner - Garlic and Chili chicken in stir-fried mushrooms, yellow peppers and noodles.
Having said that, I cooked dinner yesterday too....
Britain is leaving the EU. That has been clear since 24 June.
Remainers seeking to revisit the decision and Leavers paranoid about treachery are both equally wide of the mark. The country is going over Niagara in a barrel now.
I can't believe I'm arguing this side of the argument but consider this scenario
1. A50 is revocable, says the ECJ 2. We get a deal which is basically stay (or be like Norway), or go to WTO rules and zero EU cooperation in all other fields 3. Sturgeon times a referendum and polls show Scots will leave the U.K., if the UK leaves the Single Market 4. Business clamours for a Norway deal, or stay 5. Public opinion shifts to preferring Soft Brexit or Stay. The majority of MPs agree with the public.
It's 2018. Is TMay going to go for Hard Brexit, and Scottish secession, and an end to the UK, or will she follow public opinion and meekly accept Norway or stay?
I think the latter.
A depressing scenario. I imagine our future relationship inside the EU would be extremely strained. For example, could you imagine a Brit given any of the important officers in the Commission?
As you've observed elsewhere, the problem is not the actual rules but the way that they've been abused by personal service companies.
A beefed up IR35 - something along the lines of, if you're a one person company, any two of the following criteria make you an employee: only one customer, cannot be replaced by anyone else, work at the whim of your one customer, work at the customer site, wear company uniform, use only company owned tools etc - is surely the answer.
That is very much the approach HMRC are using, but it's causing all sorts of difficulties and anomalies in practice.
For example: If Mortimer Personal Services Ltd, a one-man company, gets a contract with a client, initially to do a short piece of work, and ends up working for the client for a couple of years, it gets clobbered as though it were tax avoidance (even if that's not the intent), and the employee can't (for example) charge travel & subsistence costs against tax because the travel gets classified as commuting . If PwC gets a contract with the same client, on exactly the same basis, and one of their staff is seconded to the client, that's not counted as coming under the IR35 rules, so the PwC employee can charge travel & subsistence costs against tax. That is massively unfair by any reasonable criterion.
I'm not sure there's any simple answer to this, but reducing the disparity in the first place sounds a good idea as part of the solution.
As you've observed elsewhere, the problem is not the actual rules but the way that they've been abused by personal service companies.
A beefed up IR35 - something along the lines of, if you're a one person company, any two of the following criteria make you an employee: only one customer, cannot be replaced by anyone else, work at the whim of your one customer, work at the customer site, wear company uniform, use only company owned tools etc - is surely the answer.
That is very much the approach HMRC are using, but it's causing all sorts of difficulties and anomalies in practice.
For example: If Mortimer Personal Services Ltd, a one-man company, gets a contract with a client, initially to do a short piece of work, and ends up working for the client for a couple of years, it gets clobbered as though it were tax avoidance (even if that's not the intent), and the employee can't (for example) charge travel & subsistence costs against tax because the travel gets classified as commuting . If PwC gets a contract with the same client, on exactly the same basis, and one of their staff is seconded to the client, that's not counted as coming under the IR35 rules, so the PwC employee can charge travel & subsistence costs against tax. That is massively unfair by any reasonable criterion.
I'm not sure there's any simple answer to this, but reducing the disparity in the first place sounds a good idea as part of the solution.
To be honest, I think in that example the result is pretty fair. Because PwC is not a one man company.
Edit: to elaborate, invoice is paid to PwC, employee is paid by PwC.
Britain is leaving the EU. That has been clear since 24 June.
Remainers seeking to revisit the decision and Leavers paranoid about treachery are both equally wide of the mark. The country is going over Niagara in a barrel now.
I can't believe I'm arguing this side of the argument but consider this scenario
1. A50 is revocable, says the ECJ 2. We get a deal which is basically stay (or be like Norway), or go to WTO rules and zero EU cooperation in all other fields 3. Sturgeon times a referendum and polls show Scots will leave the U.K., if the UK leaves the Single Market 4. Business clamours for a Norway deal, or stay 5. Public opinion shifts to preferring Soft Brexit or Stay. The majority of MPs agree with the public.
It's 2018. Is TMay going to go for Hard Brexit, and Scottish secession, and an end to the UK, or will she follow public opinion and meekly accept Norway or stay?
I think the latter.
A mandateless Prime Minister who backed Remain backtracking on the referendum result? I can't see her doing it without at the least the sanction of a second referendum backing her recommended course of action.
To be honest, I can't see her doing it at all. Her entire stint as Prime Minister to date has been marked by a determination not to be outBrexited.
Britain is leaving the EU. That has been clear since 24 June.
Remainers seeking to revisit the decision and Leavers paranoid about treachery are both equally wide of the mark. The country is going over Niagara in a barrel now.
I can't believe I'm arguing this side of the argument but consider this scenario
1. A50 is revocable, says the ECJ 2. We get a deal which is basically stay (or be like Norway), or go to WTO rules and zero EU cooperation in all other fields 3. Sturgeon times a referendum and polls show Scots will leave the U.K., if the UK leaves the Single Market 4. Business clamours for a Norway deal, or stay 5. Public opinion shifts to preferring Soft Brexit or Stay. The majority of MPs agree with the public.
It's 2018. Is TMay going to go for Hard Brexit, and Scottish secession, and an end to the UK, or will she follow public opinion and meekly accept Norway or stay?
I think the latter.
A depressing scenario. I imagine our future relationship inside the EU would be extremely strained. For example, could you imagine a Brit given any of the important officers in the Commission?
We'd be weakened and humiliated for a while, but we'd still be the 3rd biggest economy and 2nd biggest contributor. We have the cash and trade they want. I suspect after a couple of years everyone would forget it. Life goes on.
I'd be less confident about that if there was the impression was we were effectively bullied into staying, and that the EU had no intention of negotiating fairly.
If we ended up staying a new Farage-Banks party would have rocket-boosters under it. We've got a weak Labour Party led by Corbyn, and there'd be a huge reservoir of resentment.
Far from moving on, politics would become far more polarised and bitter.
To be honest, I think in that example the result is pretty fair. Because PwC is not a one man company.
Edit: to elaborate, invoice is paid to PwC, employee is paid by PwC.
Yes, but why should the travel costs be treated differently? The net effect is that the one-man company cannot cost-effectively take on long contracts which involve travel, but PwC can. Is that fair?
To be honest, I think in that example the result is pretty fair. Because PwC is not a one man company.
Edit: to elaborate, invoice is paid to PwC, employee is paid by PwC.
Yes, but why should the travel costs be treated differently? The net effect is that the one-man company cannot cost-effectively take on long contracts which involve travel, but PwC can. Is that fair?
I think so, yes. I see your point, but a one-man company is not competing with a large outsourcing company here. It is competing with employees on PAYE.
Britain is leaving the EU. That has been clear since 24 June.
Remainers seeking to revisit the decision and Leavers paranoid about treachery are both equally wide of the mark. The country is going over Niagara in a barrel now.
I can't believe I'm arguing this side of the argument but consider this scenario
1. A50 is revocable, says the ECJ 2. We get a deal which is basically stay (or be like Norway), or go to WTO rules and zero EU cooperation in all other fields 3. Sturgeon times a referendum and polls show Scots will leave the U.K., if the UK leaves the Single Market 4. Business clamours for a Norway deal, or stay 5. Public opinion shifts to preferring Soft Brexit or Stay. The majority of MPs agree with the public.
It's 2018. Is TMay going to go for Hard Brexit, and Scottish secession, and an end to the UK, or will she follow public opinion and meekly accept Norway or stay?
I think the latter.
A mandateless Prime Minister who backed Remain backtracking on the referendum result? I can't see her doing it without at the least the sanction of a second referendum backing her recommended course of action.
To be honest, I can't see her doing it at all. Her entire stint as Prime Minister to date has been marked by a determination not to be outBrexited.
In addition, the idea that Nicola Sturgeon would suddenly discover that, because Brexit was being reversed, the Scots didn't need independence is somewhat fanciful.
Richard N - also, that isn't a fair comparison as in the director dividend example 100k of distributable profits will already have had a large amount of corp paid on it. I've a pup on my feet so can't get to the spreadsheets, but really don't see what is so egregious about the marginal difference between PAYE and Directir dividends at that level.
No, the corporation tax is included in the calculation. Assume £100K profit (before paying yourself anything). Pay yourself £11K salary (+associated employer's NI), which of course comes off profit for corporation tax purposes. You then pay £17.7K corporation tax, and what's left is what is paid out in the dividend. You end up with £67K in your pocket, as opposed to the £59K the PAYE sap gets on identical assumptions.
So it's not a marginal difference, it's an enormous difference: 41% vs 33% net tax rate.
Although from a tax take point of view for the Government of course in your example HMRC are also getting up to an additional £20K in VAT.
Moreover the director will be paying out at least a couple of grand in insurances to make up for the lack of sick pay etc.
I think so, yes. I see your point, but a one-man company is not competing with a large outsourcing company here. It is competing with employees on PAYE.
Absolutely it is competing with large companies, for accounting services or IT services for example.
Britain is leaving the EU. That has been clear since 24 June.
Remainers seeking to revisit the decision and Leavers paranoid about treachery are both equally wide of the mark. The country is going over Niagara in a barrel now.
I can't believe I'm arguing this side of the argument but consider this scenario
1. A50 is revocable, says the ECJ 2. We get a deal which is basically stay (or be like Norway), or go to WTO rules and zero EU cooperation in all other fields 3. Sturgeon times a referendum and polls show Scots will leave the U.K., if the UK leaves the Single Market 4. Business clamours for a Norway deal, or stay 5. Public opinion shifts to preferring Soft Brexit or Stay. The majority of MPs agree with the public.
It's 2018. Is TMay going to go for Hard Brexit, and Scottish secession, and an end to the UK, or will she follow public opinion and meekly accept Norway or stay?
I think the latter.
A mandateless Prime Minister who backed Remain backtracking on the referendum result? I can't see her doing it without at the least the sanction of a second referendum backing her recommended course of action.
To be honest, I can't see her doing it at all. Her entire stint as Prime Minister to date has been marked by a determination not to be outBrexited.
In addition, the idea that Nicola Sturgeon would suddenly discover that, because Brexit was being reversed, the Scots didn't need independence is somewhat fanciful.
If we ended up staying a new Farage-Banks party would have rocket-boosters under it. We've got a weak Labour Party led by Corbyn, and there'd be a huge reservoir of resentment.
Far from moving on, politics would become far more polarised and bitter.
Look how bitter and nasty it is now.. and this is when the politically correct guys feel they've been cheated!!
Although from a tax take point of view for the Government of course in your example HMRC are also getting up to an additional £20K in VAT.
Moreover the director will be paying out at least a couple of grand in insurances to make up for the lack of sick pay etc.
No, VAT is neutral, since the clients are usually VAT registered. Alternatively, if the client is a government department, they are forking out the VAT and then getting it back from the company. Overall, VAT is irrelevant.
Insurance and other costs (accountancy for example) might be a consideration, sure. But remember that I haven't taken account of the fact that contractors' rates are usually higher than employee's rates anyway, and that is where those extra costs should be covered.
Syrian refugees could be trained and armed to form a military force that could be sent to liberate Syria, Poland’s foreign minister has said.
Witold Waszczykowski suggested refugees from the country were not as desperate as they were sometimes portrayed, according to the AFP news agency.
“Tens of thousands of young men disembark from their rubber dinghies with iPad in hand and instead of asking for drink or food, they ask where they can charge their cellphones,” he told local television.
Imagine if Farage had said that. Scratch an EU grandee and you find either an irresponsible drunk, or a less charming, thoughtful and intelligent version of Donald Trump. I mean, Viktor fecking Orbán, FFS. And remainers go on as if Brexit is like excluding ourselves from the salons of 18th century Paris.
They're over the shock and horror and now they're thinking.
It must also be plainly obvious to the EU that the UK population is torn over this issue.
About 52 to 48!
Call it 50/50 with Margin of Error.
OK - International Women's Day is over so I can resume my responsibilities of cooking dinner - Garlic and Chili chicken in stir-fried mushrooms, yellow peppers and noodles.
Having said that, I cooked dinner yesterday too....
They're over the shock and horror and now they're thinking.
It must also be plainly obvious to the EU that the UK population is torn over this issue.
About 52 to 48!
Call it 50/50 with Margin of Error.
OK - International Women's Day is over so I can resume my responsibilities of cooking dinner - Garlic and Chili chicken in stir-fried mushrooms, yellow peppers and noodles.
Having said that, I cooked dinner yesterday too....
Margin error on a poll of 33 million voters? Small, I imagine.
The margin of error on an actual outcome is a measure of how accurate the count is, not how accurate the sample. There are statistics on that, and it is pretty tiny IIRC.
They're over the shock and horror and now they're thinking.
It must also be plainly obvious to the EU that the UK population is torn over this issue.
About 52 to 48!
Call it 50/50 with Margin of Error.
OK - International Women's Day is over so I can resume my responsibilities of cooking dinner - Garlic and Chili chicken in stir-fried mushrooms, yellow peppers and noodles.
Having said that, I cooked dinner yesterday too....
Margin error on a poll of 33 million voters? Small, I imagine.
The margin of error on an actual outcome is a measure of how accurate the count is, not how accurate the sample. There are statistics on that, and it is pretty tiny IIRC.
Syrian refugees could be trained and armed to form a military force that could be sent to liberate Syria, Poland’s foreign minister has said.
Witold Waszczykowski suggested refugees from the country were not as desperate as they were sometimes portrayed, according to the AFP news agency.
“Tens of thousands of young men disembark from their rubber dinghies with iPad in hand and instead of asking for drink or food, they ask where they can charge their cellphones,” he told local television.
Imagine if Farage had said that. Scratch an EU grandee and you find either an irresponsible drunk, or a less charming, thoughtful and intelligent version of Donald Trump. I mean, Viktor fecking Orbán, FFS. And remainers go on as if Brexit is like excluding ourselves from the salons of 18th century Paris.
I suspect quite a few Brits would agree with old Witold, there
Yes, but my point is the ragefest which would ensue if a Brexiteer said so, on here.
Syrian refugees could be trained and armed to form a military force that could be sent to liberate Syria, Poland’s foreign minister has said.
Witold Waszczykowski suggested refugees from the country were not as desperate as they were sometimes portrayed, according to the AFP news agency.
“Tens of thousands of young men disembark from their rubber dinghies with iPad in hand and instead of asking for drink or food, they ask where they can charge their cellphones,” he told local television.
Imagine if Farage had said that. Scratch an EU grandee and you find either an irresponsible drunk, or a less charming, thoughtful and intelligent version of Donald Trump. I mean, Viktor fecking Orbán, FFS. And remainers go on as if Brexit is like excluding ourselves from the salons of 18th century Paris.
Ummm: Witold Waszczykowski is a member of the Eurosceptic Law & Justice party, so hardly an EU grandee.
Syrian refugees could be trained and armed to form a military force that could be sent to liberate Syria, Poland’s foreign minister has said.
Witold Waszczykowski suggested refugees from the country were not as desperate as they were sometimes portrayed, according to the AFP news agency.
“Tens of thousands of young men disembark from their rubber dinghies with iPad in hand and instead of asking for drink or food, they ask where they can charge their cellphones,” he told local television.
Imagine if Farage had said that. Scratch an EU grandee and you find either an irresponsible drunk, or a less charming, thoughtful and intelligent version of Donald Trump. I mean, Viktor fecking Orbán, FFS. And remainers go on as if Brexit is like excluding ourselves from the salons of 18th century Paris.
Nobody - not even Farage - could reasonably describe either Orban or the Polish governments as grandees, any more than Syriza on the other wing. If you have 28 countries, the extremes will be represented somewhere. They're not remotely typical
Syrian refugees could be trained and armed to form a military force that could be sent to liberate Syria, Poland’s foreign minister has said.
Witold Waszczykowski suggested refugees from the country were not as desperate as they were sometimes portrayed, according to the AFP news agency.
“Tens of thousands of young men disembark from their rubber dinghies with iPad in hand and instead of asking for drink or food, they ask where they can charge their cellphones,” he told local television.
Imagine if Farage had said that. Scratch an EU grandee and you find either an irresponsible drunk, or a less charming, thoughtful and intelligent version of Donald Trump. I mean, Viktor fecking Orbán, FFS. And remainers go on as if Brexit is like excluding ourselves from the salons of 18th century Paris.
Ummm: Witold Waszczykowski is a member of the Eurosceptic Law & Justice party, so hardly an EU grandee.
Britain is leaving the EU. That has been clear since 24 June.
Remainers seeking to revisit the decision and Leavers paranoid about treachery are both equally wide of the mark. The country is going over Niagara in a barrel now.
I can't believe I'm arguing this side of the argument but consider this scenario
1. A50 is revocable, says the ECJ 2. We get a deal which is basically stay (or be like Norway), or go to WTO rules and zero EU cooperation in all other fields 3. Sturgeon times a referendum and polls show Scots will leave the U.K., if the UK leaves the Single Market 4. Business clamours for a Norway deal, or stay 5. Public opinion shifts to preferring Soft Brexit or Stay. The majority of MPs agree with the public.
It's 2018. Is TMay going to go for Hard Brexit, and Scottish secession, and an end to the UK, or will she follow public opinion and meekly accept Norway or stay?
I think the latter.
A depressing scenario. I imagine our future relationship inside the EU would be extremely strained. For example, could you imagine a Brit given any of the important officers in the Commission?
We'd be weakened and humiliated for a while, but we'd still be the 3rd biggest economy and 2nd biggest contributor. We have the cash and trade they want. I suspect after a couple of years everyone would forget it. Life goes on.
Agreed. The EU is essentially pragmatism elevated to a life form.
Britain is leaving the EU. That has been clear since 24 June.
Remainers seeking to revisit the decision and Leavers paranoid about treachery are both equally wide of the mark. The country is going over Niagara in a barrel now.
I can't believe I'm arguing this side of the argument but consider this scenario
1. A50 is revocable, says the ECJ 2. We get a deal which is basically stay (or be like Norway), or go to WTO rules and zero EU cooperation in all other fields 3. Sturgeon times a referendum and polls show Scots will leave the U.K., if the UK leaves the Single Market 4. Business clamours for a Norway deal, or stay 5. Public opinion shifts to preferring Soft Brexit or Stay. The majority of MPs agree with the public.
It's 2018. Is TMay going to go for Hard Brexit, and Scottish secession, and an end to the UK, or will she follow public opinion and meekly accept Norway or stay?
I think the latter
If May keeps the UK in the single market with no new immigration controls Tory Leave voters will move en masse to UKIP and UKIP could come first at the next general election, she may offer a job offer requirement only for bilateral agreements but she will be committing political suicide if she leaves free movement unchanged
Syrian refugees could be trained and armed to form a military force that could be sent to liberate Syria, Poland’s foreign minister has said.
Witold Waszczykowski suggested refugees from the country were not as desperate as they were sometimes portrayed, according to the AFP news agency.
“Tens of thousands of young men disembark from their rubber dinghies with iPad in hand and instead of asking for drink or food, they ask where they can charge their cellphones,” he told local television.
Imagine if Farage had said that. Scratch an EU grandee and you find either an irresponsible drunk, or a less charming, thoughtful and intelligent version of Donald Trump. I mean, Viktor fecking Orbán, FFS. And remainers go on as if Brexit is like excluding ourselves from the salons of 18th century Paris.
Ummm: Witold Waszczykowski is a member of the Eurosceptic Law & Justice party, so hardly an EU grandee.
Syrian refugees could be trained and armed to form a military force that could be sent to liberate Syria, Poland’s foreign minister has said.
Witold Waszczykowski suggested refugees from the country were not as desperate as they were sometimes portrayed, according to the AFP news agency.
“Tens of thousands of young men disembark from their rubber dinghies with iPad in hand and instead of asking for drink or food, they ask where they can charge their cellphones,” he told local television.
Imagine if Farage had said that. Scratch an EU grandee and you find either an irresponsible drunk, or a less charming, thoughtful and intelligent version of Donald Trump. I mean, Viktor fecking Orbán, FFS. And remainers go on as if Brexit is like excluding ourselves from the salons of 18th century Paris.
Ummm: Witold Waszczykowski is a member of the Eurosceptic Law & Justice party, so hardly an EU grandee.
Oh bugger, is he?
That only makes my point the stronger.
"Scratch any Eurosceptic Pole (in a position of responsibility) and you find either an irresponsible drunk, or a less charming, thoughtful and intelligent version of Donald Trump"?
They're over the shock and horror and now they're thinking.
It must also be plainly obvious to the EU that the UK population is torn over this issue.
About 52 to 48!
Call it 50/50 with Margin of Error.
OK - International Women's Day is over so I can resume my responsibilities of cooking dinner - Garlic and Chili chicken in stir-fried mushrooms, yellow peppers and noodles.
Having said that, I cooked dinner yesterday too....
Margin error on a poll of 33 million voters? Small, I imagine.
The margin of error on an actual outcome is a measure of how accurate the count is, not how accurate the sample. There are statistics on that, and it is pretty tiny IIRC.
It's still a sample of the whole population.
It is not a sample of those who voted. It is those who voted.
Syrian refugees could be trained and armed to form a military force that could be sent to liberate Syria, Poland’s foreign minister has said.
Witold Waszczykowski suggested refugees from the country were not as desperate as they were sometimes portrayed, according to the AFP news agency.
“Tens of thousands of young men disembark from their rubber dinghies with iPad in hand and instead of asking for drink or food, they ask where they can charge their cellphones,” he told local television.
Imagine if Farage had said that. Scratch an EU grandee and you find either an irresponsible drunk, or a less charming, thoughtful and intelligent version of Donald Trump. I mean, Viktor fecking Orbán, FFS. And remainers go on as if Brexit is like excluding ourselves from the salons of 18th century Paris.
Ummm: Witold Waszczykowski is a member of the Eurosceptic Law & Justice party, so hardly an EU grandee.
Oh bugger, is he?
That only makes my point the stronger.
"Scratch any Eurosceptic Pole (in a position of responsibility) and you find either an irresponsible drunk, or a less charming, thoughtful and intelligent version of Donald Trump"?
Britain is leaving the EU. That has been clear since 24 June.
Remainers seeking to revisit the decision and Leavers paranoid about treachery are both equally wide of the mark. The country is going over Niagara in a barrel now.
I can't believe I'm arguing this side of the argument but consider this scenario
1. A50 is revocable, says the ECJ 2. We get a deal which is basically stay (or be like Norway), or go to WTO rules and zero EU cooperation in all other fields 3. Sturgeon times a referendum and polls show Scots will leave the U.K., if the UK leaves the Single Market 4. Business clamours for a Norway deal, or stay 5. Public opinion shifts to preferring Soft Brexit or Stay. The majority of MPs agree with the public.
It's 2018. Is TMay going to go for Hard Brexit, and Scottish secession, and an end to the UK, or will she follow public opinion and meekly accept Norway or stay?
I think the latter
If May keeps the UK in the single market with no new immigration controls Tory Leave voters will move en masse to UKIP and UKIP could come first at the next general election, she may offer a job offer requirement only for bilateral agreements but she will be committing political suicide if she leaves free movement unchanged
Have I mentioned I have a 500/1 bet on UKIP most seats?
Looks like we might get the U-turn before the weekend...
ITV News making hay with the story.
The public will forgive a U-turn, like they did with the tax credits fiasco. What they won't forgive is incompetence. Hammond was right to do what he did, for good reasons, but he has made a pig's ear of the politics. I didn't like the hubris he and the Tories demonstrated on Wednesday, a trap very easy to fall into when you have a crippling idiot as Loto and probably the worst opposition front bench in the history of British democracy.
OGH: "With the second BREXIT bill defeat in the Lords, the sacking of Michael Heseltine and the reception the budget has got this has probably been the worst week of Theresa May’s government."
Without a doubt and I fully expect the next batch of polls to demonstrate precisely that.
Lord Kerr has already clarified this so not really news (although I accept that it puts flesh on the bone). It is the headbanger brigade who have been trying to advance this myth that once Article 50 has been triggered it is unstoppable. Perhaps they are worried that Britain might change its mind.
Perhaps they are. It would certainly be an astute move for the EU to offer it as an option even if the treaties do not.
I cannot imagine they would really want us to change our minds,given if we did it's unlikely we'd certainly be huge fans of more integration and everything else they want to do, but as a means of encouraging holdout remainers to keep up the fight, it could still make sense.
My sense is that they really do want us to change our minds. Brexit will be economical painful and politically dangerous for the EU. They're over the shock and horror and now they're thinking.
The EU sees thwarting Brexit as desirable. The best way to do that is to make A50 reversible. Who decides that? The ECJ. The ECJ always acts in the interests of the EU. So it would rule that A50 can be revoked.
Then they offer us the worst deal in history, we fold (in some face saving way). Brexit is thwarted.
hmm
so far they havent offered us a better deal
the stick rather than the carrot wont work
Accepting economic pain when we leave, and even hurting themselves a bit by punishing us, is a short term benefit to them at least, as offering us a better deal would be holding themselves to hostage for any nation that decides it wants a better deal and can trigger, cause massive disruption, and then stay anyway.
Longer term better for them that they don't punish us (as it least in part punishes them), even if they don't have to be too kind, so cooler heads need to prevail on both sides.
People are allowed to change their minds, nations should be afforded the same courtesy
Yes they are, although it would inevitably lead to calls, hard to refuse, of why not hold another one, and the circumstances it would be reasonable to rethink, or more accurately when the desire to rethink would be strong enough in the public for the politicians to countenance risking a rethink, are hard to picture occuring in the short time available, given truly calamitous outcomes take time to emerge.
Britain is leaving the EU. That has been clear since 24 June.
Remainers seeking to revisit the decision and Leavers paranoid about treachery are both equally wide of the mark. The country is going over Niagara in a barrel now.
I can't believe I'm arguing this side of the argument but consider this scenario
1. A50 is revocable, says the ECJ 2. We get a deal which is basically stay (or be like Norway), or go to WTO rules and zero EU cooperation in all other fields 3. Sturgeon times a referendum and polls show Scots will leave the U.K., if the UK leaves the Single Market 4. Business clamours for a Norway deal, or stay 5. Public opinion shifts to preferring Soft Brexit or Stay. The majority of MPs agree with the public.
It's 2018. Is TMay going to go for Hard Brexit, and Scottish secession, and an end to the UK, or will she follow public opinion and meekly accept Norway or stay?
I think the latter
If May keeps the UK in the single market with no new immigration controls Tory Leave voters will move en masse to UKIP and UKIP could come first at the next general election, she may offer a job offer requirement only for bilateral agreements but she will be committing political suicide if she leaves free movement unchanged
Have I mentioned I have a 500/1 bet on UKIP most seats?
If May abandons control of free movement that would have been well worth a punt, it is not unprecedented to see the main centre right party beaten in a general election by a populist rightwing party, see Canada 1993 and France now
Looks like we might get the U-turn before the weekend...
ITV News making hay with the story.
Not as tough as they make out, May and Co, jumping at first hint of trouble, and rather take the hit for a u-turn than explain why a manifesto breach is necessary in this instance I guess.
Looks like we might get the U-turn before the weekend...
ITV News making hay with the story.
Not as tough as they make out, May and Co, jumping at first hint of trouble, and rather take the hit for a u-turn than explain why a manifesto breach is necessary in this instance I guess.
I seriously doubt the policy will be reversed completely, the extra social care funds and NHS funds have to be funded somehow
Britain is leaving the EU. That has been clear since 24 June.
Remainers seeking to revisit the decision and Leavers paranoid about treachery are both equally wide of the mark. The country is going over Niagara in a barrel now.
I can't believe I'm arguing this side of the argument but consider this scenario
1. A50 is revocable, says the ECJ 2. We get a deal which is basically stay (or be like Norway), or go to WTO rules and zero EU cooperation in all other fields 3. Sturgeon times a referendum and polls show Scots will leave the U.K., if the UK leaves the Single Market 4. Business clamours for a Norway deal, or stay 5. Public opinion shifts to preferring Soft Brexit or Stay. The majority of MPs agree with the public.
It's 2018. Is TMay going to go for Hard Brexit, and Scottish secession, and an end to the UK, or will she follow public opinion and meekly accept Norway or stay?
I think the latter.
A mandateless Prime Minister who backed Remain backtracking on the referendum result? I can't see her doing it without at the least the sanction of a second referendum backing her recommended course of action.
To be honest, I can't see her doing it at all. Her entire stint as Prime Minister to date has been marked by a determination not to be outBrexited.
Well, quite. She in particular but most remain MPs too, would not backtrack without a democratic endorsement of doing so, and they'd only seek one if there were irrefutable evidence the public had massively switched to that position, which is hard to see.
Looks like we might get the U-turn before the weekend...
ITV News making hay with the story.
Not as tough as they make out, May and Co, jumping at first hint of trouble, and rather take the hit for a u-turn than explain why a manifesto breach is necessary in this instance I guess.
Looks like we might get the U-turn before the weekend...
ITV News making hay with the story.
Not as tough as they make out, May and Co, jumping at first hint of trouble, and rather take the hit for a u-turn than explain why a manifesto breach is necessary in this instance I guess.
Looks like we might get the U-turn before the weekend...
ITV News making hay with the story.
Not as tough as they make out, May and Co, jumping at first hint of trouble, and rather take the hit for a u-turn than explain why a manifesto breach is necessary in this instance I guess.
Looks like we might get the U-turn before the weekend...
ITV News making hay with the story.
Not as tough as they make out, May and Co, jumping at first hint of trouble, and rather take the hit for a u-turn than explain why a manifesto breach is necessary in this instance I guess.
Have they actually U-turned?
The statement stands, should they do so.
Yep, but only if they do so.
I made a statement saying I'd appreciate May more as a PM if she doesn't u-turn earlier, so I'm covered.
Looks like we might get the U-turn before the weekend...
ITV News making hay with the story.
Not as tough as they make out, May and Co, jumping at first hint of trouble, and rather take the hit for a u-turn than explain why a manifesto breach is necessary in this instance I guess.
Have they actually U-turned?
The statement stands, should they do so.
Yep, but only if they do so.
I made a statement saying I'd appreciate May more as a PM if she doesn't u-turn earlier, so I'm covered.
Living up to your reputation of supreme neutralness!
Comments
A beefed up IR35 - something along the lines of, if you're a one person company, any two of the following criteria make you an employee: only one customer, cannot be replaced by anyone else, work at the whim of your one customer, work at the customer site, wear company uniform, use only company owned tools etc - is surely the answer.
I run a micro business that has grown from little capital to now being very well capitalised, employing two staff as well as myself etc.
I'm pretty confident that the Ltd company dividend set up has helped me grow larger and faster.
Just like another day on PB, in the Polish foreign ministry.
Germany are the key. Where they go, others will follow. Twas ever thus.
For example: If Mortimer Personal Services Ltd, a one-man company, gets a contract with a client, initially to do a short piece of work, and ends up working for the client for a couple of years, it gets clobbered as though it were tax avoidance (even if that's not the intent), and the employee can't (for example) charge travel & subsistence costs against tax because the travel gets classified as commuting . If PwC gets a contract with the same client, on exactly the same basis, and one of their staff is seconded to the client, that's not counted as coming under the IR35 rules, so the PwC employee can charge travel & subsistence costs against tax. That is massively unfair by any reasonable criterion.
I'm not sure there's any simple answer to this, but reducing the disparity in the first place sounds a good idea as part of the solution.
Edit: to elaborate, invoice is paid to PwC, employee is paid by PwC.
To be honest, I can't see her doing it at all. Her entire stint as Prime Minister to date has been marked by a determination not to be outBrexited.
If we ended up staying a new Farage-Banks party would have rocket-boosters under it. We've got a weak Labour Party led by Corbyn, and there'd be a huge reservoir of resentment.
Far from moving on, politics would become far more polarised and bitter.
Moreover the director will be paying out at least a couple of grand in insurances to make up for the lack of sick pay etc.
Tomorrow is the last day of pre-season testing. In a fortnight, we're off to Oz.
ITV News making hay with the story.
Insurance and other costs (accountancy for example) might be a consideration, sure. But remember that I haven't taken account of the fact that contractors' rates are usually higher than employee's rates anyway, and that is where those extra costs should be covered.
Witold Waszczykowski suggested refugees from the country were not as desperate as they were sometimes portrayed, according to the AFP news agency.
“Tens of thousands of young men disembark from their rubber dinghies with iPad in hand and instead of asking for drink or food, they ask where they can charge their cellphones,” he told local television.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/syrian-refugees-should-be-trained-into-an-army-to-fight-isis-polands-foreign-minister-says-a6736776.html
Imagine if Farage had said that. Scratch an EU grandee and you find either an irresponsible drunk, or a less charming, thoughtful and intelligent version of Donald Trump. I mean, Viktor fecking Orbán, FFS. And remainers go on as if Brexit is like excluding ourselves from the salons of 18th century Paris.
Something else will take up the meeeja's attention soon, I'm sure.
* Unless your very rich.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UPw-3e_pzqU
If May keeps the UK in the single market with no new immigration controls Tory Leave voters will move en masse to UKIP and UKIP could come first at the next general election, she may offer a job offer requirement only for bilateral agreements but she will be committing political suicide if she leaves free movement unchanged
That only makes my point the stronger.
Longer term better for them that they don't punish us (as it least in part punishes them), even if they don't have to be too kind, so cooler heads need to prevail on both sides.
If the self employed want to keep their rights to a state pension, they will have to pay up.