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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Was this the reason for TMay’s election decision?

SystemSystem Posts: 11,003
edited April 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Was this the reason for TMay’s election decision?

What about George Osborne – an opportunity for him to stand down in Tatton?

Read the full story here


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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited April 2017
    First!

    Unlike Corbyn :D:D:D
  • Options
    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited April 2017
    Second! Like political truth and honesty......
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,238
    Interesting.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    No sign of Walter Mitty doing the media....is Tuesday the day he lectures neuro-science at Liverpool Uni? Or is it when he coaches Everton U23's?
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited April 2017
    There always seemed to be a huge number of hurdles to be cleared before Crick's scoop might actually result in by-elections.
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    No.

    Moving the next election away from the end of the 2 year Brexit negotiations and the polls were key.
  • Options
    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,882
    Forgot about Carswell, he's screwed unless he can beg for the Tory nomination.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,572
    So no Tory flying pickets in marginals this time round.

    Good news for the Lib Dems down west.
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    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,281
    It must be. Why else would Theresa want to trash her biggest selling point? She's gone from dull but honest to dull and dishonest.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    TGOHF said:

    No.

    Moving the next election away from the end of the 2 year Brexit negotiations and the polls were key.

    This....It seems like she can then go for negotiate + 2-3 year transition deal + softer Brexit.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    Artist said:

    Forgot about Carswell, he's screwed unless he can beg for the Tory nomination.

    Why shouldn't he have the Con nomination?
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,909
    "TheScreamingEagles Posts: 49,531
    12:54PM
    Site notice. Mike and myself are busy for the next few hours, so if there's no new thread for a while, that's why."

    Seems that TSE's promises are as believable as Mrs May's :)
  • Options
    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    I am sure it was the main reason .Electoral frauds is not a good look .
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,238
    edited April 2017
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    "TheScreamingEagles Posts: 49,531
    12:54PM
    Site notice. Mike and myself are busy for the next few hours, so if there's no new thread for a while, that's why."

    Seems that TSE's promises are as believable as Mrs May's :)

    The next seven weeks are going to make thread selection and publication a challenge.
  • Options
    jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261
    God I really hope Farage doesn't win a seat. Cannot stand him.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited April 2017
    It's just occurred to me that, once the 2017 GE is out of the way and the next one's not until 20232022, there will be no need for Labour to rush in replacing Corbyn...
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited April 2017
    Yorkcity said:

    I am sure it was the main reason .Electoral frauds is not a good look .

    Except no-one has been found guilty of anything and far from clear they ever will be. I doubt very few people have any idea about this story.

    Remember phone hacking was going to kill the Tories....and that was much wider reported story, day in day out for months.

    I genuinely think this is very little to do with it. More the fact small majority means May is struggling to get stuff through. Brexit, Grammar schools, basically all the stuff she wants to do.
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    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,281
    Artist said:

    Forgot about Carswell, he's screwed unless he can beg for the Tory nomination.

    Yes, he's finished never to be heard of again. But he did leave one memorable legacy: elected police commissioners.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,683
    edited April 2017
    Stark_Dawning said:

    It must be. Why else would Theresa want to trash her biggest selling point? She's gone from dull but honest to dull and dishonest.

    It was very risky. This would have come badly stuck if Labour had refused to play ball.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,238
    We're going to find out if Arron Banks is all fart and no follow through about standing in Clacton.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    jonny83 said:

    God I really hope Farage doesn't win a seat. Cannot stand him.

    9th time lucky seems unlikely...
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    No. Channel Fake News is irrelevant.
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    LennonLennon Posts: 1,729
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    It's just occurred to me that, once the 2017 GE is out of the way and the next one's not until 2023, there will be no need for Labour to rush in replacing Corbyn...

    2022 surely? But interesting point that I suspect Labour Councillors looking at losing their seats might disagree with.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    We're going to find out if Arron Banks is all fart and no follow through about standing in Clacton.

    He's said today he's standing. Under what banner will Douglas Carswell be standing?
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited April 2017
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    We're going to find out if Arron Banks is all fart and no follow through about standing in Clacton.

    He seems to be trying to rejoin UKIP. See 13:19 here:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/apr/18/corbyn-cressida-dick-met-police-a-gun-may-not-have-saved-pc-killed-in-westminster-terror-attack-says-new-met-chief-politics-live
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    New poll from ICM:

    "Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 1h1 hour ago

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 44% (+1)
    LAB: 26% (+1)
    UKIP: 11% (-)
    LDEM: 10% (-1)
    GRN: 4% (-)

    (via ICM / 14 - 17 Apr)"
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    CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    FF43 said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    It must be. Why else would Theresa want to trash her biggest selling point? She's gone from dull but honest to dull and dishonest.

    It was very risky. This would have come badly stuck if Labour had refused to play ball.
    It was probably cleared with Corbyn beforehand.
    And it may still come badly unstuck.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,238
    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    We're going to find out if Arron Banks is all fart and no follow through about standing in Clacton.

    He's said today he's standing. Under what banner will Douglas Carswell be standing?
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    We're going to find out if Arron Banks is all fart and no follow through about standing in Clacton.

    He seems to be trying to rejoun UKIP. See 13:19 here:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/apr/18/corbyn-cressida-dick-met-police-a-gun-may-not-have-saved-pc-killed-in-westminster-terror-attack-says-new-met-chief-politics-live
    Thanks guys.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I see that today all the journalists who hadn't anticipated an early election are falling over themselves to give their hot takes as to why we're getting one.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,810
    TGOHF said:

    No.

    Moving the next election away from the end of the 2 year Brexit negotiations and the polls were key.

    FPT
    TGOHF said:

    » show previous quotes
    the Nats could easily lose 10 seats and vote share. We've seen off peak SNP - it may take another referendum post Brexit to see them off again but by then Labour should have its act together.



    Lol the toom tabards are out and about today, not a chance. Would you care to bet on that. I am happy to do so based on them not losing 10 or more seats.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,108
    I really doubt it. The chances of there being a significant number of prosecutions, if any, were very slim. The chances of convictions even less. And if the Election Court found out the mug on the ground had no idea what central office was doing even if found guilty the chances of a banning order (which is discretionary) seem slight. And it is not as if this is going away. Decisions will be made by the end of this month how many prosecutions will be brought. The CPS is right against the time limit for that. Not the best mood music for a GE tbh.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Lennon said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    It's just occurred to me that, once the 2017 GE is out of the way and the next one's not until 2023, there will be no need for Labour to rush in replacing Corbyn...

    2022 surely? But interesting point that I suspect Labour Councillors looking at losing their seats might disagree with.
    Oops, yes, corrected
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited April 2017
    AlastairMeeks said:

    I see that today all the journalists who hadn't anticipated an early election are falling over themselves to give their hot takes as to why we're getting one.

    Why change the habit of a lifetime....they are wrong on most things. The problem now is with the internet, it is easy to check most of them don't know half the stuff they like to spout about.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,572
    I fully expect London free-sheet, the Evening Standard, to support their local candidate and endorse Jezza to be PM.

    Actually, I expect there to be a bit of soul searching in the editorial offices of the Guardian and the Mirror. Will they really support a Corbyn-led Labour Party?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,609
    TGOHF said:

    No.

    Moving the next election away from the end of the 2 year Brexit negotiations and the polls were key.

    I expect it played a part in the decision though. Cynical, partisan,poorly justified.

    Unlikely to lead to negative electoral consequences though.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,108
    malcolmg said:

    TGOHF said:

    No.

    Moving the next election away from the end of the 2 year Brexit negotiations and the polls were key.

    FPT
    TGOHF said:

    » show previous quotes
    the Nats could easily lose 10 seats and vote share. We've seen off peak SNP - it may take another referendum post Brexit to see them off again but by then Labour should have its act together.



    Lol the toom tabards are out and about today, not a chance. Would you care to bet on that. I am happy to do so based on them not losing 10 or more seats.
    I am amazed at your generosity once again Malcolm.
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,141
    FF43 said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    It must be. Why else would Theresa want to trash her biggest selling point? She's gone from dull but honest to dull and dishonest.

    It was very risky. This would have come badly stuck if Labour had refused to play ball.
    We still don't quite know. It's all very well for the party leaders to say they'll play ball, but if 1/3 of MPs wake up with toothache tomorrow morning the vote might not go through. A lot of Tories have LibDem challengers not Labour ones, and they have teeth too...
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    FF43 said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    It must be. Why else would Theresa want to trash her biggest selling point? She's gone from dull but honest to dull and dishonest.

    It was very risky. This would have come badly stuck if Labour had refused to play ball.
    Makes you wonder if it was sounded out. Maybe the Tories got wind of Corbyn being deeply unhappy in the role, but not being prepared to stand down until after an election. The alacrity with which Corbyn said - "fine - bring it on!" suggests he may have had some forewarning...
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,609
    AlastairMeeks said:

    I see that today all the journalists who hadn't anticipated an early election are falling over themselves to give their hot takes as to why we're getting one.

    If being able to see things coming, or get predictions right, was a necessary part of political commentary we'd have very few people in the industry.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935
    edited April 2017
    malcolmg said:

    TGOHF said:

    No.

    Moving the next election away from the end of the 2 year Brexit negotiations and the polls were key.

    FPT
    TGOHF said:

    » show previous quotes
    the Nats could easily lose 10 seats and vote share. We've seen off peak SNP - it may take another referendum post Brexit to see them off again but by then Labour should have its act together.



    Lol the toom tabards are out and about today, not a chance. Would you care to bet on that. I am happy to do so based on them not losing 10 or more seats.
    SNP lose seats and Labour ditch Corbyn for someone electable post May landslide is possible
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited April 2017
    SandyRentool said:

    I fully expect London free-sheet, the Evening Standard, to support their local candidate and endorse Jezza to be PM.

    Actually, I expect there to be a bit of soul searching in the editorial offices of the Guardian and the Mirror. Will they really support a Corbyn-led Labour Party?

    Lib Dem I would guess for Guardian....as the one true party of Anti-Brexit. Mirror - Polly trademark nosepeg?

    And I doubt the BBC will be hugely helpful to Labour either. I doubt we will see them rounded around Jezza to shield him from nasty Daily Mail and Sun hit pieces like they did for Ed.

    But at least Jezza can rely on the might of the Morning Star.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    On topic, no, it wasn't why she called it - she wouldn't have done so were the Tories level-pegging with Labour - but it was certainly an argument in favour.

    No-one cared about the expenses allegations beyond a few uber-nerds but had the courts upheld them then it would have provided a significant distraction.

    The reasons why she's going for it are simple:

    1. The Tories have a massive lead.
    2. Corbyn might have been toppled this summer and if not this year then there was a very good chance of it next year.
    3. It strengthens her hand with the EU if she can be confident that parliament will back her.
    4. It gets her off the hook of those on-the-fly commitments that Cameron made and gives her her own mandate.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/thepoke/status/854304758818938882
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    tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,546
    SeanT said:

    Lot of Remainers unhappy on here. They should be more cheerful. A big Tory win will give TMay room to maneuver us to a Softer Brexit. She won't be hamstrung by the Ultra Brexiteers threatening to rebel.

    Yes I think that is right.

    I've felt for some time that the political landscape is too different from 2015 for that mandate to be effective, so good for the country I think.

  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,810
    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    TGOHF said:

    No.

    Moving the next election away from the end of the 2 year Brexit negotiations and the polls were key.

    FPT
    TGOHF said:

    » show previous quotes
    the Nats could easily lose 10 seats and vote share. We've seen off peak SNP - it may take another referendum post Brexit to see them off again but by then Labour should have its act together.



    Lol the toom tabards are out and about today, not a chance. Would you care to bet on that. I am happy to do so based on them not losing 10 or more seats.
    I am amazed at your generosity once again Malcolm.
    LOL, Not so flash Harry will run for the hills if he can get his foot out of his mouth
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,609
    Stark_Dawning said:

    Artist said:

    Forgot about Carswell, he's screwed unless he can beg for the Tory nomination.

    Yes, he's finished never to be heard of again. But he did leave one memorable legacy: elected police commissioners.
    A shit legacy then.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,238
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    It's just occurred to me that, once the 2017 GE is out of the way and the next one's not until 20232022, there will be no need for Labour to rush in replacing Corbyn...

    Surely that's going go to be dependent on how many and which Labour MPs are left.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,141
    SeanT said:

    Lot of Remainers unhappy on here. They should be more cheerful. A big Tory win will give TMay room to maneuver us to a Softer Brexit. She won't be hamstrung by the Ultra Brexiteers threatening to rebel.

    This is true. It also gives everyone a lot more time for extensions and can kicks, which is the most plausible way to minimize the car crash.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,999
    tpfkar said:

    SeanT said:

    Lot of Remainers unhappy on here. They should be more cheerful. A big Tory win will give TMay room to maneuver us to a Softer Brexit. She won't be hamstrung by the Ultra Brexiteers threatening to rebel.

    Yes I think that is right.

    I've felt for some time that the political landscape is too different from 2015 for that mandate to be effective, so good for the country I think.
    What is May's platform other than more power for herself? It will be a Brexit election and she will have to effectively refight the referendum campaign as a Brexiteer.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,549
    AlastairMeeks said:

    I see that today all the journalists who hadn't anticipated an early election are falling over themselves to give their hot takes as to why we're getting one.

    Shameless weasels. Totally taken by surprise but claiming to have been in the know.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,108
    SeanT said:

    Lot of Remainers unhappy on here. They should be more cheerful. A big Tory win will give TMay room to maneuver us to a Softer Brexit. She won't be hamstrung by the Ultra Brexiteers threatening to rebel.

    Agreed. She does not want to be in a position where she is being held to ransom by the frothers. And most of them (not all) are on her right.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    kle4 said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I see that today all the journalists who hadn't anticipated an early election are falling over themselves to give their hot takes as to why we're getting one.

    If being able to see things coming, or get predictions right, was a necessary part of political commentary we'd have very few people in the industry.
    I was hoping someone was going to point out all the times I'd done exactly the same thing.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,810
    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    TGOHF said:

    No.

    Moving the next election away from the end of the 2 year Brexit negotiations and the polls were key.

    FPT
    TGOHF said:

    » show previous quotes
    the Nats could easily lose 10 seats and vote share. We've seen off peak SNP - it may take another referendum post Brexit to see them off again but by then Labour should have its act together.



    Lol the toom tabards are out and about today, not a chance. Would you care to bet on that. I am happy to do so based on them not losing 10 or more seats.
    SNP lose seats and Labour ditch Corbyn for someone electable post May landslide is possible
    Not more than 10 as Harry foolishly predicted. I don't expect to hear back from him , I know he is all mouth and no trousers.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited April 2017
    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/thepoke/status/854304758818938882

    With such short notice, I guess we won't see a return of that CH4 comedy about what was going on the battle buses. That was quite funny last time, especially when the Ed Stone dropped.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    SandyRentool said:

    So no Tory flying pickets in marginals this time round.

    Good news for the Lib Dems down west.


    According to LibDems candidates, the Tory flying pickets were as much use as the square root of fuck all.

    A view with which, as it disrupted days to get prepared for the half-day visit, I have some sympathy....

    Anyway, Torbay in the late spring should be a lovely place to deliver tens of thousands of leaflets as part of my fitness regime. Although, I am tempted to help Johnny Mercer some too - just to get TSE all jealous, what with his man-crush and that....
  • Options
    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    edited April 2017
    You would need a heart of stone not to laugh... Well back to the day job, oh wait...

    Twitter
    Severin Carrell‏Verified account @severincarrell 2m2 minutes ago
    @NicolaSturgeon officials say @Scotgov postponing her short term #indyref2 timetable - #GE2017 means "no UK govt to talk to"
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    Animal_pbAnimal_pb Posts: 608
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    It's just occurred to me that, once the 2017 GE is out of the way and the next one's not until 20232022, there will be no need for Labour to rush in replacing Corbyn...

    I would have thought they'd want to use the momentum (if you'll pardon the phrase) of a crushing loss to mount a probably unbeatable challenge as soon as possible, if Corbyn doesn't step down voluntarily. Perversely, though, that might mean they wind up with a weaker successor than might otherwise be the case. Another Owen Smith might well be terminal for a Labour Party on ~150 seats.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,999
    "The country is coming together but Westminster is not."

    There's not much hint of the 'precious union of four nations' in that statement.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,567
    SeanT said:

    Lot of Remainers unhappy on here. They should be more cheerful. A big Tory win will give TMay room to maneuver us to a Softer Brexit. She won't be hamstrung by the Ultra Brexiteers threatening to rebel.

    Yes, they're the big losers today - SO's beloved swivel eyed loons. Long term May has also done Labour a favour as we can be reasonably confident his leadership ends on 9 June 2017, not 2018 or 2019.....
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,108
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/thepoke/status/854304758818938882

    Clearly the Labour bus is a cry for Ed to join in.
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    rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    Yorkcity said:

    I am sure it was the main reason .Electoral frauds is not a good look .

    Indeed not. I'm pleased that our politics appear more honest than those of France, although any findings of electoral fraud won't have much effect if the majority after June is 120.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,108
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    SandyRentool said:

    I fully expect London free-sheet, the Evening Standard, to support their local candidate and endorse Jezza to be PM.

    Actually, I expect there to be a bit of soul searching in the editorial offices of the Guardian and the Mirror. Will they really support a Corbyn-led Labour Party?

    Lib Dem I would guess for Guardian....as the one true party of Anti-Brexit. Mirror - Polly trademark nosepeg?

    And I doubt the BBC will be hugely helpful to Labour either. I doubt we will see them rounded around Jezza to shield him from nasty Daily Mail and Sun hit pieces like they did for Ed.

    But at least Jezza can rely on the might of the Morning Star.
    My guess is that Jezza will get a lot of grief for not giving the people a credible choice. Even from the BBC.
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Animal_pb said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    It's just occurred to me that, once the 2017 GE is out of the way and the next one's not until 20232022, there will be no need for Labour to rush in replacing Corbyn...

    I would have thought they'd want to use the momentum (if you'll pardon the phrase) of a crushing loss to mount a probably unbeatable challenge as soon as possible, if Corbyn doesn't step down voluntarily. Perversely, though, that might mean they wind up with a weaker successor than might otherwise be the case. Another Owen Smith might well be terminal for a Labour Party on ~150 seats.
    BIB: Well, exactly. The idea that after getting decimated, there won't be an immediate challenge to Corbyn's leadership seems to me a rather odd conclusion.

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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    CarlottaVance said:

    SeanT said:

    Lot of Remainers unhappy on here. They should be more cheerful. A big Tory win will give TMay room to maneuver us to a Softer Brexit. She won't be hamstrung by the Ultra Brexiteers threatening to rebel.

    Yes, they're the big losers today - SO's beloved swivel eyed loons. Long term May has also done Labour a favour as we can be reasonably confident his leadership ends on 9 June 2017, not 2018 or 2019.....
    Really? Most of the Remainers here today seem keen on an election.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,810
    CarlottaVance said:

    SeanT said:

    Lot of Remainers unhappy on here. They should be more cheerful. A big Tory win will give TMay room to maneuver us to a Softer Brexit. She won't be hamstrung by the Ultra Brexiteers threatening to rebel.

    Yes, they're the big losers today - SO's beloved swivel eyed loons. Long term May has also done Labour a favour as we can be reasonably confident his leadership ends on 9 June 2017, not 2018 or 2019.....
    Reinforcements for Fitaloss , they have got the other chuckle brother out of her bed , CCHQ enforcing double shifts for forseeable.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,894
    MarqueeMark said:

    SandyRentool said:

    So no Tory flying pickets in marginals this time round.

    Good news for the Lib Dems down west.

    According to LibDems candidates, the Tory flying pickets were as much use as the square root of fuck all.
    A view with which, as it disrupted days to get prepared for the half-day visit, I have some sympathy....
    Anyway, Torbay in the late spring should be a lovely place to deliver tens of thousands of leaflets as part of my fitness regime. Although, I am tempted to help Johnny Mercer some too - just to get TSE all jealous, what with his man-crush and that....
    Tell Kevin James says "Hi :)"
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,238
    I reckon turnout will be low except in Scotland.

    https://twitter.com/undefined/status/854290333173153796
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited April 2017
    This is no general election, it’s a coup – MPs have a duty to stop Theresa May (says Guardian's lobby correspondence)

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/18/general-election-coup-mps-theresa-may
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    What's the odds on SNP gains?
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    foxinsoxuk said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    SeanT said:

    Lot of Remainers unhappy on here. They should be more cheerful. A big Tory win will give TMay room to maneuver us to a Softer Brexit. She won't be hamstrung by the Ultra Brexiteers threatening to rebel.

    Yes, they're the big losers today - SO's beloved swivel eyed loons. Long term May has also done Labour a favour as we can be reasonably confident his leadership ends on 9 June 2017, not 2018 or 2019.....
    Really? Most of the Remainers here today seem keen on an election.
    I'm a Remainer and I'm very happy about today's events.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    CarlottaVance said:

    SeanT said:

    Lot of Remainers unhappy on here. They should be more cheerful. A big Tory win will give TMay room to maneuver us to a Softer Brexit. She won't be hamstrung by the Ultra Brexiteers threatening to rebel.

    Yes, they're the big losers today - SO's beloved swivel eyed loons. Long term May has also done Labour a favour as we can be reasonably confident his leadership ends on 9 June 2017, not 2018 or 2019.....
    Will Jeremy Corbyn think that anything as incidental as an election defeat is a ground for resignation?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,238
    MarqueeMark said:

    SandyRentool said:

    So no Tory flying pickets in marginals this time round.

    Good news for the Lib Dems down west.


    According to LibDems candidates, the Tory flying pickets were as much use as the square root of fuck all.

    A view with which, as it disrupted days to get prepared for the half-day visit, I have some sympathy....

    Anyway, Torbay in the late spring should be a lovely place to deliver tens of thousands of leaflets as part of my fitness regime. Although, I am tempted to help Johnny Mercer some too - just to get TSE all jealous, what with his man-crush and that....
    I've told him already I'm campaigning for him
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Big story in France about an imminent terrorist attack foiled by the authorities after a tip off from the UK security services:

    http://www.lefigaro.fr/actualite-france/2017/04/18/01016-20170418ARTFIG00146-attentat-dejoue-les-deux-suspects-comptaient-frapper-dans-les-prochains-jours.php
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,810
    edited April 2017
    Where are you TGOHF , no courage to your convictions I presume.

    PS: Will be back later if you get a backbone.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    SandyRentool said:

    So no Tory flying pickets in marginals this time round.

    Good news for the Lib Dems down west.


    According to LibDems candidates, the Tory flying pickets were as much use as the square root of fuck all.

    A view with which, as it disrupted days to get prepared for the half-day visit, I have some sympathy....

    Anyway, Torbay in the late spring should be a lovely place to deliver tens of thousands of leaflets as part of my fitness regime. Although, I am tempted to help Johnny Mercer some too - just to get TSE all jealous, what with his man-crush and that....
    I've told him already I'm campaigning for him
    If you want accommodation down here, just holler! (Assuming that doesn't set off another expenses scandal!!)
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Cyan said:

    FF43 said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    It must be. Why else would Theresa want to trash her biggest selling point? She's gone from dull but honest to dull and dishonest.

    It was very risky. This would have come badly stuck if Labour had refused to play ball.
    It was probably cleared with Corbyn beforehand.
    And it may still come badly unstuck.
    My guess is May would say that the unstuckness creates so much uncertainty that the only way forward is a simple-majority "Notwithstanding the FTPA we'll have an election on June 8" Bill (problems with HoL of course possible).

    If June 8 is later than the earliest possible date, perhaps the extra time is to allow for hiccups.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    LDs should focus remorselessly on areas that voted Remain, even if the Tory majority is large. So for example they should go in particular for Truro & Falmouth in Cornwall which apparently was the only seat in the county to vote Remain.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    AlastairMeeks said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    SeanT said:

    Lot of Remainers unhappy on here. They should be more cheerful. A big Tory win will give TMay room to maneuver us to a Softer Brexit. She won't be hamstrung by the Ultra Brexiteers threatening to rebel.

    Yes, they're the big losers today - SO's beloved swivel eyed loons. Long term May has also done Labour a favour as we can be reasonably confident his leadership ends on 9 June 2017, not 2018 or 2019.....
    Will Jeremy Corbyn think that anything as incidental as an election defeat is a ground for resignation?

    Maybe when he has had two or three of them - and the voters have shown a settled intention....
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,894
    Jonathan said:

    What's the odds on SNP gains?

    Orkney will be an easy hold for Carmichael.
    Mundell will hold too I expect.
    Edinburgh South must be their #1 target ? But I don't think its a straight SNP/Labour race.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    SandyRentool said:

    So no Tory flying pickets in marginals this time round.

    Good news for the Lib Dems down west.


    According to LibDems candidates, the Tory flying pickets were as much use as the square root of fuck all.

    A view with which, as it disrupted days to get prepared for the half-day visit, I have some sympathy....

    Anyway, Torbay in the late spring should be a lovely place to deliver tens of thousands of leaflets as part of my fitness regime. Although, I am tempted to help Johnny Mercer some too - just to get TSE all jealous, what with his man-crush and that....
    I've told him already I'm campaigning for him
    If you want accommodation down here, just holler! (Assuming that doesn't set off another expenses scandal!!)
    Just get paid in kind MM ;)
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,683
    MarqueeMark said:

    FF43 said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    It must be. Why else would Theresa want to trash her biggest selling point? She's gone from dull but honest to dull and dishonest.

    It was very risky. This would have come badly stuck if Labour had refused to play ball.
    Makes you wonder if it was sounded out. Maybe the Tories got wind of Corbyn being deeply unhappy in the role, but not being prepared to stand down until after an election. The alacrity with which Corbyn said - "fine - bring it on!" suggests he may have had some forewarning...
    I think what changed was that Mrs May decided it was a risk worth taking, not that the fundamentals had changed. I do genuinely think she changed her mind rather just biding her time.
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    EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    This is no general election, it’s a coup – MPs have a duty to stop Theresa May (says Guardian's lobby correspondence)

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/18/general-election-coup-mps-theresa-may

    Anne Perkins takes the Gold for Mental Gymnastics.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    It's just occurred to me that, once the 2017 GE is out of the way and the next one's not until 20232022, there will be no need for Labour to rush in replacing Corbyn...

    Luvit! :)
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    Jonathan said:

    What's the odds on SNP gains?


    LibDem seat seems bomb-proof. Tories on the up.

    Just that one Labour seat to grab....
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,572
    The good news for Labour MPs who manage to hold their seats is that there will be plenty of space to spread out and relax on the opposition benches in the new parliament.

    Super-dense-crush-load on the Tory side, however.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    Pulpstar said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    SandyRentool said:

    So no Tory flying pickets in marginals this time round.

    Good news for the Lib Dems down west.

    According to LibDems candidates, the Tory flying pickets were as much use as the square root of fuck all.
    A view with which, as it disrupted days to get prepared for the half-day visit, I have some sympathy....
    Anyway, Torbay in the late spring should be a lovely place to deliver tens of thousands of leaflets as part of my fitness regime. Although, I am tempted to help Johnny Mercer some too - just to get TSE all jealous, what with his man-crush and that....
    Tell Kevin James says "Hi :)"
    Will do!
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Afternoon all - and on topic.

    1. CPS theory a distinct possibility.
    2. Osborne is gone.
    3. Carswell invited back.
    4. Labour 2nd.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,999
    FF43 said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    FF43 said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    It must be. Why else would Theresa want to trash her biggest selling point? She's gone from dull but honest to dull and dishonest.

    It was very risky. This would have come badly stuck if Labour had refused to play ball.
    Makes you wonder if it was sounded out. Maybe the Tories got wind of Corbyn being deeply unhappy in the role, but not being prepared to stand down until after an election. The alacrity with which Corbyn said - "fine - bring it on!" suggests he may have had some forewarning...
    I think what changed was that Mrs May decided it was a risk worth taking, not that the fundamentals had changed. I do genuinely think she changed her mind rather just biding her time.
    I think it was the prospect of being pushed around by the EU that tipped the balance. She thinks a thumping mandate will help her regain some of the initiative.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,909
    SimonStClare said:

    Afternoon all - and on topic.

    1. CPS theory a distinct possibility.
    2. Osborne is gone.
    3. Carswell invited back.
    4. Labour 2nd.

    Yep that all looks right to me.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,914
    FF43 said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    FF43 said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    It must be. Why else would Theresa want to trash her biggest selling point? She's gone from dull but honest to dull and dishonest.

    It was very risky. This would have come badly stuck if Labour had refused to play ball.
    Makes you wonder if it was sounded out. Maybe the Tories got wind of Corbyn being deeply unhappy in the role, but not being prepared to stand down until after an election. The alacrity with which Corbyn said - "fine - bring it on!" suggests he may have had some forewarning...
    I think what changed was that Mrs May decided it was a risk worth taking, not that the fundamentals had changed. I do genuinely think she changed her mind rather just biding her time.

    I think she has realised just how tough the Brexit deal is: (a) going to be to do; (2) to sell to the swivel-eyed right. She has to have her own mandate.

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    rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    The_Apocalypse said:

    Animal_pb said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    It's just occurred to me that, once the 2017 GE is out of the way and the next one's not until 20232022, there will be no need for Labour to rush in replacing Corbyn...

    I would have thought they'd want to use the momentum (if you'll pardon the phrase) of a crushing loss to mount a probably unbeatable challenge as soon as possible, if Corbyn doesn't step down voluntarily. Perversely, though, that might mean they wind up with a weaker successor than might otherwise be the case. Another Owen Smith might well be terminal for a Labour Party on ~150 seats.
    BIB: Well, exactly. The idea that after getting decimated, there won't be an immediate challenge to Corbyn's leadership seems to me a rather odd conclusion.

    Balls.

    Not a rude comment, just a possible answer. Desperate times ... desperate measures?

    I don't entirely trust him but do I trust a vicar's daughter who turns out after 9 months to be as devious as her predecessor?
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,210
    LibDems are being flooded with offers of help and new members since the announcement. I think this is going to be a very upbeat campaign.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited April 2017
    The Moggster really is rather good on the telly. I wouldn't vote for him, but he is highly effective at disarming difficult questions with utter upper class politeness.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/thepoke/status/854304758818938882

    Clearly the Labour bus is a cry for Ed to join in.

    Will Ed Balls stand? A defining moment for his career....

    There must be some safe-ish seats coming up. MPs who thought they could depart in 2020 are now looking at 2022....do they really want five more years of this shit?
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    MarqueeMark said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/thepoke/status/854304758818938882

    Clearly the Labour bus is a cry for Ed to join in.

    Will Ed Balls stand? A defining moment for his career....

    There must be some safe-ish seats coming up. MPs who thought they could depart in 2020 are now looking at 2022....do they really want five more years of this shit?
    Why would Corbyn accommodate him?
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    tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,546
    williamglenn said:

    tpfkar said:

    SeanT said:

    Lot of Remainers unhappy on here. They should be more cheerful. A big Tory win will give TMay room to maneuver us to a Softer Brexit. She won't be hamstrung by the Ultra Brexiteers threatening to rebel.

    Yes I think that is right.

    I've felt for some time that the political landscape is too different from 2015 for that mandate to be effective, so good for the country I think.
    What is May's platform other than more power for herself? It will be a Brexit election and she will have to effectively refight the referendum campaign as a Brexiteer.
    It's more about saying what it's about. For most of the past year her manifesto was "Brexit means Brexit" and it's only since Jan there's any meat on that. But after such a contentious vote, her deciding what Brexit means really wasn't enough, so it's right that she gets the legitimacy that an election will bring - or perhaps the voters will choose a different path.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,870
    It's good for the Conservatives (a bigger majority a cert)
    It's good for Labour (they can get rid of Corbyn so they can start rebuilding)
    It's good for the Lib Dems (they should gain a few seats)
    It's good for the SNP (more opportunities for them to moan)
    It's good for the country (esp. wrt Brexit)
    It's good for betting (lots of opportunities)

    What's not to like? ;)
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,108
    MarqueeMark said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/thepoke/status/854304758818938882

    Clearly the Labour bus is a cry for Ed to join in.

    Will Ed Balls stand? A defining moment for his career....

    There must be some safe-ish seats coming up. MPs who thought they could depart in 2020 are now looking at 2022....do they really want five more years of this shit?
    Safe-ish Labour seats. I'll get back to you on that.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,894
    UK, ICM poll:
    CON-ECR: 44% ↑
    LAB-S&D: 26% ↑
    UKIP-EFDD: 11%
    LDEM-ALDE: 10% ↓
    SNP-G/EFA: 4% ↓
    Green-G/EFA: 4%
    PC-G/EFA: 1%
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited April 2017
    JosiasJessop said:

    It's good for the Conservatives (a bigger majority a cert)
    It's good for Labour (they can get rid of Corbyn so they can start rebuilding)
    It's good for the Lib Dems (they should gain a few seats)
    It's good for the SNP (more opportunities for them to moan)
    It's good for the country (esp. wrt Brexit)
    It's good for betting (lots of opportunities)

    What's not to like? ;)

    Agree will all of that....but I have a lot of work on in May.....think of the 0.00000000000001% drop in GDP due to me being too busy laughing at Jezza and betting on the GE when I should be working !
This discussion has been closed.