Could it be that what is going on is that all the "non-voters" who registered and voted in the EU referendum to deliver the result have hung around in the electorate. We are still close enough to the referendum for them to be on the Electoral Registers, and they may be highly motivated to vote to guarantee Brexit. And it is May who they will have to vote for.
Yes but will they actually show up on polling day like last year? Maybe doing so last year gave them a taste for it.
News from the (English) streets today in Ealing Central and Acton - a Remain-voting London Lab-held Super-marginal you would think one of the first constituencies to fall. Big houses champagne socialism territory:
Plenty of disgust at the Cons (NHS, Brexit, immigrant registers, broken promises).
Some despair from Lab voters at Jezza. Many thought he was a breath of fresh air.
Some Lab and Cons voters now without a home. Net net I think enough Lab voters will go LD giving it to Cons I hope but no room for complacency.
No value from the betting markets here but plenty of Lab support.
I think Brentford is the more likely Conservative gain of the two West London super-marginal.
And its at longer odds as well.
Ealing Central and Acton is my constituency. I'd be amazed if it isn't a Tory gain. FWIW I'm a Lab-LD switcher. Also expect Vince to regain Twickers (though that's more a 75/25 in my view).
The Lib Dems will be disappointed. I mean, 11% is likely to give them some gains but the optimistic forecasts of 20+ gains need more votes nationally...
If the Conservatives get 50%, the Lib Dems are unlikely to make more than one or two net gains.
Doesn't it depend how uniform the swing is? If the Conservatives are stationary in Remainia but sweeping all before them in Brexitland, there may be some surprises. This isn't Scotland where the Tories will be competitive in every single seat.
I'm wondering now if Corbyn is in fact a long-term Thatcherite mole, dedicated to destroying Labour from inside. Seriously: could he do it any more effectively?
I'm going to go with No, he's walking the line between what's okay and what would get him booted perfectly.
My Grandson 6 cried when Gaston did what he did.( do not want to reveal the story too much, but we all know it). Grandson came home and said "I hate Gaston". The animation took us to a new level, no wonder it has been so well received.
I wonder how the Scottish Labour supporting papers are going to react to this. For their own futures it's time to shit or get of the pot. They back the union and tory rule for a decade or more or, swing to independence.
I had the ComRes embargoed email for an hour, but they stuck in my spam folder.
Google's excellent spam filtering probably detected an implausible Tory lead and decided to bin it automatically in case you were to publicise such a clearly fabricated poll.
Could it be that what is going on is that all the "non-voters" who registered and voted in the EU referendum to deliver the result have hung around in the electorate. We are still close enough to the referendum for them to be on the Electoral Registers, and they may be highly motivated to vote to guarantee Brexit. And it is May who they will have to vote for.
As far as guaranteeing Brexit is concerned, it won't matter who anybody in Britain votes for if Le Pen wins in France. And there will be a new French president a month before Britain goes to the polls.
I'm wondering now if Corbyn is in fact a long-term Thatcherite mole, dedicated to destroying Labour from inside. Seriously: could he do it any more effectively?
He would probably have to include in The Labour Manifesto, a commitment to get rid of HM the Queen, so that he could become the head of state, to do any more damage.
So, what are our predictions for the Scottish poll? Either there is a total collapse of Slab support to the point where they are a non-entity, with SCons picking up the slack or a retreat in SNP support with SCons coming close. 90% chance that it's the former though.
I had the ComRes embargoed email for an hour, but they stuck in my spam folder.
Google's excellent spam filtering probably detected an implausible Tory lead and decided to bin it automatically in case you were to publicise such a clearly fabricated poll.
ComRes know I would never violate an embargo.
Mutters something about I had an hour to make massive profit with this embargo*
*Before my fan gets overexcited, I never bet on embargoed polls until they are formally released.
I'm wondering now if Corbyn is in fact a long-term Thatcherite mole, dedicated to destroying Labour from inside. Seriously: could he do it any more effectively?
It's too obvious, a real mole would be careful and at least try and look like a plausible PM, so he must be for real.
I wonder how the Scottish Labour supporting papers are going to react to this. For their own futures it's time to shit or get of the pot. They back the union and tory rule for a decade or more or, swing to independence.
But what if the unionist vote total outperforms the SNP
I wonder how the Scottish Labour supporting papers are going to react to this. For their own futures it's time to shit or get of the pot. They back the union and tory rule for a decade or more or, swing to independence.
It's Scottish Labour you are talking about. The People's Front For The Liberation Of Judea. Minus the competence.
These are just getting silly now. It's not the case that every other voter you meet is going to vote Tory. I think we're experiencing a polling Maygasm - the surprise of the early election call is generating some strange noise.
If the Conservatives get 52% at the election - should we all club together and buy Sunil a steam train?
. Are we at the point now where we are overstating the Tories and understating Labour
Has to be, simply has to be.
Doesn't it?
It might be the other way round. I still cannot believe 25% of the voting public would be happy to see Jeremy Corbyn as PM. That's more ludicrous than anything.
To be honest I don't really believe that the Cons are at 50% & Lab on 25% this early into the campaign, with almost all of the Tory gunpowder not even dusted off let alone used.
So, what are our predictions for the Scottish poll? Either there is a total collapse of Slab support to the point where they are a non-entity, with SCons picking up the slack or a retreat in SNP support with SCons coming close. 90% chance that it's the former though.
you may find it's both
Labour collapse and con picking up votes from the SNP
It's only my uneducated (and whiskey filled) gut speaking but I get the feeling we are past peak SNP and Labour have yet to hit bottom.
As I keep telling football fans. It doesn't matter how far down you go there is always more down...
It used to be said that Tory Central Office couldn't have invented a more prefect villain than the 1980s mineworker's trade union baron Author Scargill. But Jezza seems to be even more effective than he was.
To be honest I don't really believe that the Cons are at 50% & Lab on 25% this early into the campaign, with almost all of the Tory gunpowder not even dusted off let alone used.
Andrew Hawkins @Andrew_ComRes This far out from #GE2017 ComRes had Con & Lab neck & neck on 35%; now we find 2 Tory voters for every 1 Lab voter (ComRes/S Mirror)
. Are we at the point now where we are overstating the Tories and understating Labour
Has to be, simply has to be.
Doesn't it?
It might be the other way round. I still cannot believe 25% of the voting public would be happy to see Jeremy Corbyn as PM. That's more ludicrous than anything.
I can easily believe 15% of the population could want that, and that another 10% may not, but are happy to vote Labour even under him.
May and the Tory`s support has to be very vulnerable both to bad news,poor campaigning and tactical voting.May is not very charismatic nor a notably good interviewer and has an overrated Home Secretary CV.She has not established either a clear world view a la Heath or Thatcher or a likeable social persona a la Blair,Callaghan,Cameron, Major and Wilson. She has quite a bit in common with Gordon Brown .
. Are we at the point now where we are overstating the Tories and understating Labour
Has to be, simply has to be.
Doesn't it?
Yes. I wouldn't want to back a majority for the Tories at 1.17 seven weeks out from a general election, or at the 1.14 they will probably be at by midnight.
Corbyn could resign. Merkel could tell President Le Pen "You've got a good point. Let's turn the EU into something else and ask Britain to come in with us." Mophead could do something completely idiotic. Many things could happen.
Andrew Hawkins @Andrew_ComRes This far out from #GE2017 ComRes had Con & Lab neck & neck on 35%; now we find 2 Tory voters for every 1 Lab voter (ComRes/S Mirror)
Andrew Hawkins @Andrew_ComRes This far out from #GE2017 ComRes had Con & Lab neck & neck on 35%; now we find 2 Tory voters for every 1 Lab voter (ComRes/S Mirror)
So, what are our predictions for the Scottish poll? Either there is a total collapse of Slab support to the point where they are a non-entity, with SCons picking up the slack or a retreat in SNP support with SCons coming close. 90% chance that it's the former though.
you may find it's both
Labour collapse and con picking up votes from the SNP
It's only my uneducated (and whiskey filled) gut speaking but I get the feeling we are past peak SNP and Labour have yet to hit bottom.
As I keep telling football fans. It doesn't matter how far down you go there is always more down...
So, what are our predictions for the Scottish poll? Either there is a total collapse of Slab support to the point where they are a non-entity, with SCons picking up the slack or a retreat in SNP support with SCons coming close. 90% chance that it's the former though.
you may find it's both
Labour collapse and con picking up votes from the SNP
It's only my uneducated (and whiskey filled) gut speaking but I get the feeling we are past peak SNP and Labour have yet to hit bottom.
As I keep telling football fans. It doesn't matter how far down you go there is always more down...
May and the Tory`s support has to be very vulnerable both to bad news,poor campaigning and tactical voting.May is not very charismatic nor a notably good interviewer and has an overrated Home Secretary CV.She has not established either a clear world view a la Heath or Thatcher or a likeable social persona a la Blair,Callaghan,Cameron, Major and Wilson. She has quite a bit in common with Gordon Brown .
So, what are our predictions for the Scottish poll? Either there is a total collapse of Slab support to the point where they are a non-entity, with SCons picking up the slack or a retreat in SNP support with SCons coming close. 90% chance that it's the former though.
May and the Tory`s support has to be very vulnerable both to bad news,poor campaigning and tactical voting.May is not very charismatic nor a notably good interviewer and has an overrated Home Secretary CV.She has not established either a clear world view a la Heath or Thatcher or a likeable social persona a la Blair,Callaghan,Cameron, Major and Wilson. She has quite a bit in common with Gordon Brown .
When did Brown hit 50% in the polls
Moreover the British people are both very sceptical of Brexit and STILL want May to handle it. Kinda like the economy in 2010.
May and the Tory`s support has to be very vulnerable both to bad news,poor campaigning and tactical voting.May is not very charismatic nor a notably good interviewer and has an overrated Home Secretary CV.She has not established either a clear world view a la Heath or Thatcher or a likeable social persona a la Blair,Callaghan,Cameron, Major and Wilson. She has quite a bit in common with Gordon Brown .
Just imagine what the Tories would be polling if she was competent then!
May and the Tory`s support has to be very vulnerable both to bad news,poor campaigning and tactical voting.May is not very charismatic nor a notably good interviewer and has an overrated Home Secretary CV.She has not established either a clear world view a la Heath or Thatcher or a likeable social persona a la Blair,Callaghan,Cameron, Major and Wilson. She has quite a bit in common with Gordon Brown .
When did Brown hit 50% in the polls
Moreover the British people are both very sceptical of Brexit and STILL want May to handle it. Kinda like the economy in 2010.
What you want Jezza handling it instead, ably assisted by a Maoist, a woman who won't fly a Union Jack and thinks there is VAT on milk and somebody who when they aren't slandering companies for non-existent tax dodging can't even work out where their constituency is?
I psyched myself up to place a bet on the French presidential. I checked out the odds online: picked Ladbrokes. I wrote down the bet on a piece of paper in block capitals (Final Two: Le Pen vs Macron). I went to the bank and took out £150 (odds of 8/15 - I figured 150 out, 80 back plus stake). I walked down the street and...Laddies wasn't there! It's moved out! There's some b****y "MegaBet" shop thing there. I'm not going in there, I wouldn't know what to say! I walked up the street. I walked down the street. No Laddies! What the actual! Came home.
So, what are our predictions for the Scottish poll? Either there is a total collapse of Slab support to the point where they are a non-entity, with SCons picking up the slack or a retreat in SNP support with SCons coming close. 90% chance that it's the former though.
So, what are our predictions for the Scottish poll? Either there is a total collapse of Slab support to the point where they are a non-entity, with SCons picking up the slack or a retreat in SNP support with SCons coming close. 90% chance that it's the former though.
SCon lead?
Now that would set the cat among the pigeons. It's also about as likely as me getting elected as an Indy MP this election.
I'm wondering now if Corbyn is in fact a long-term Thatcherite mole, dedicated to destroying Labour from inside. Seriously: could he do it any more effectively?
He would probably have to include in The Labour Manifesto, a commitment to get rid of HM the Queen, so that he could become the head of state, to do any more damage.
That would be unlikely to impact on his core support which it looks like he may possibly be approaching.
So, what are our predictions for the Scottish poll? Either there is a total collapse of Slab support to the point where they are a non-entity, with SCons picking up the slack or a retreat in SNP support with SCons coming close. 90% chance that it's the former though.
I wonder how the Scottish Labour supporting papers are going to react to this. For their own futures it's time to shit or get of the pot. They back the union and tory rule for a decade or more or, swing to independence.
But what if the unionist vote total outperforms the SNP
I wonder how the Scottish Labour supporting papers are going to react to this. For their own futures it's time to shit or get of the pot. They back the union and tory rule for a decade or more or, swing to independence.
But what if the unionist vote total outperforms the SNP
What's that to do with it. I'm talking about the Daily Record/Sunday Mail. They are Labour supporting unionists, not tory unionists,they are remain not brexit.
Poor Kez. Two trouncings at the polls coming within 4 weeks of each other. She hasn't even got time to resign and end the misery.
Lab destroyed, majority in favour of an indyref, SCons closing in SNP by my reading.
There's little point to vote SLab these days - most people know where they are on the constitution and will vote accordingly. 'We're a slightly nicer bunch of unionists' isn't really a sales pitch.
I psyched myself up to place a bet on the French presidential. I checked out the odds online: picked Ladbrokes. I wrote down the bet on a piece of paper in block capitals (Final Two: Le Pen vs Macron). I went to the bank and took out £150 (odds of 8/15 - I figured 150 out, 80 back plus stake). I walked down the street and...Laddies wasn't there! It's moved out! There's some b****y "MegaBet" shop thing there. I'm not going in there, I wouldn't know what to say! I walked up the street. I walked down the street. No Laddies! What the actual! Came home.
If the early election call is generating a Con bounce then it could throw the Council elections into crazy directions.
Yes - I know people do not always vote the same in locals as in parliamentaries, but I had been expecting a pretty good night for the LDs, but if the GE has been stirring up the Tory support, who knows.
Comments
32-38-9-13
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention
So a 15.5% swing.
There's going to be a lot of Labour councillors lose in twelve days time.
And how many of those will bother campaigning in the general election ?
For their own futures it's time to shit or get of the pot.
They back the union and tory rule for a decade or more or, swing to independence.
Doesn't it?
50% is insane!
Mutters something about I had an hour to make massive profit with this embargo*
*Before my fan gets overexcited, I never bet on embargoed polls until they are formally released.
It's too obvious, a real mole would be careful and at least try and look like a plausible PM, so he must be for real.
Dave's the only PM to quit whilst leading in the polls.
50%
Labour collapse and con picking up votes from the SNP
It's only my uneducated (and whiskey filled) gut speaking but I get the feeling we are past peak SNP and Labour have yet to hit bottom.
As I keep telling football fans. It doesn't matter how far down you go there is always more down...
Miss miss, my Dad says that the Tories on 50% and have a 25% lead over Labour....
It used to be said that Tory Central Office couldn't have invented a more prefect villain than the 1980s mineworker's trade union baron Author Scargill.
But Jezza seems to be even more effective than he was.
This far out from #GE2017 ComRes had Con & Lab neck & neck on 35%; now we find 2 Tory voters for every 1 Lab voter (ComRes/S Mirror)
I think he means GE2015
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/22/exclusive-poll-voters-turning-away-labour-towards-tories-five/
Labour's lead over the Tories on who is best trusted with the NHS has almost disappeared, an opinion poll for The Telegraph has revealed.
She has quite a bit in common with Gordon Brown .
Corbyn could resign.
Merkel could tell President Le Pen "You've got a good point. Let's turn the EU into something else and ask Britain to come in with us."
Mophead could do something completely idiotic.
Many things could happen.
SNP 42 Tories 38
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/855879093518303232
https://www.spectator.co.uk/2017/04/left-in-the-shadows/
But I just wanted to highlight: 'I could pick you a better shadow cabinet from a bus queue'. LOL
Before 2015, the left often said the Tories would never poll above 35%. They've now hit 50%.
I psyched myself up to place a bet on the French presidential. I checked out the odds online: picked Ladbrokes. I wrote down the bet on a piece of paper in block capitals (Final Two: Le Pen vs Macron). I went to the bank and took out £150 (odds of 8/15 - I figured 150 out, 80 back plus stake). I walked down the street and...Laddies wasn't there! It's moved out! There's some b****y "MegaBet" shop thing there. I'm not going in there, I wouldn't know what to say! I walked up the street. I walked down the street. No Laddies! What the actual! Came home.
Pause.
Aaaaargh!
Aaaaargh!
No bet placed. Quite glum.
Given how few MPs the Lib Dem have, it could be them waiting for one....a mini bus of course.
Twitter
Britain Elects @britainelects 36m36 minutes ago
Upcoming polls (tonight and tomorrow):
Panelbase - Scotland
YouGov - GB-wide
Survation - GB-wide
Survation - Scotland
Martin Boon @martinboon 35m35 minutes ago
Replying to @britainelects
And maybe @ICMResearch too.
Labour supporting unionists, not tory unionists,they are remain not brexit.
SLab bedrock about 10%, I'd guess.
'Jesus fucking Christ' and he wasn't talking about the ComRes poll.