Categories
Options
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » First wave of French second round polling gives it to Macron b
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » First wave of French second round polling gives it to Macron by 20% or more
Wikipedia
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/arkansas-prepares-1st-double-execution-us-2000-46977122
Corbynistas please note ...
On the bright side for Le Pen, she is far closer than her father in 2002, when he lost by 65 percentage points. So maybe one more heave in five years' time?
http://img.huffingtonpost.com/asset/scalefit_630_noupscale/57ee7bdc170000e00aac86ff.jpeg
SindyRef - Definitely vote %:
18 - 34 : 71
35 - 54: 79
55+ : 90
SindyRef - Yes / No / Undecided %
18 - 34 : 56 / 29 / 15
35 - 54: 40 / 49 / 9
55+ : 32 / 59 / 8
(.......Not so great for May or the Tories)
* In this case, increasing pensions and lowering the age of retirement.
Okaaay....
http://tinyurl.com/n73kv38
http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/theresa-attacks-welsh-labours-record-12939213
But that was driven by the poor rating of the leader in front dragging down his party's share as the election focussed minds; that shouldn't be a factor in France.
http://www.bathchronicle.co.uk/jay-risbridger-bath-liberal-democrats-parliamentary-candidate-makes-transport-high-on-agenda/story-30277536-detail/story.html
While I think the FN have very dubious policies, I don't think they are Facist.
Brexit: strengthening the Union.
Firstly - Wow...expected something like this but not as dramatic. But some more detailed thoughts...:
This poll was taken (purely conincidentally) just when the GE announcement was made, and the media was full of confident strident Teresa in comparison to bumbling Comrade Corbyn. I expect the gap to narrow.
Specifically with the Local elections coming first there should be gains for Plaid and LDs which will get their faces back in public domain and identify locally where there is a non-Conservative option to Corbyn.
Plaid and to a lesser extent LDs will get more TV coverage during GE itself because of fair coverage rules. UKIP will also but the more that BBC wheel out Neil Hamilton the better.
Most importantly I expect Welsh Labour to distance themselves from UK Labour and wheel out cuddly Carwyn at every opportunity. I would not even rule out a mass resignation of WLab altogether!!
So barring any unexpected moves I would expect Welsh result to become more like:
Lab 33% 18 seats
Con 33% 17 Seats
PC 15% 4 Seats
LD 10% 1 seat
UKIP 5% 0
Others 4% 0
Still undeniably good for Conservatives
Nigel Farage of UKIP says he will never go into alliance with Marine Le Pen because of her party's "nasty, anti-Semitic past".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-eu-27625501
https://twitter.com/nigel_farage/status/841711033764970496
There are 37 seats on the Conservative target list where, if all of the other votes remained exactly as they were, the defection of 50% of the 2015 Ukip vote would be enough to win on its own.
These run from City of Chester all the way down to Mansfield (majority 11.26%.) Apart from Clacton, they're all currently held by (at least nominally) Remain-supporting parties.
There are also a whole bunch of others, which I've not had time to quantify this morning - including some which are nominally much safer than Mansfield - which become marginal under these circumstances.
Nearly all of the constituencies in both categories are Labour. More evidence to suggest that a heavy defeat is probably on the way for the party.
And my daily reminder: Labour now has 44 campaign days left to convince the voters of England and Wales that a Far Left minority Government, led by Jeremy Corbyn and enabled by the votes of Scottish Nationalists, is something to be celebrated.
Or it would be if Roger wasn't wrong about everything, all the time.
If the Conservatives are hoping for up to 14, they must be including seats like Pontypridd!
Here, a strong Brexit-promoting right-wing female has a >20% lead in the polls over her male socialist rival.
Across the Channel, a pro-EU male liberal socialist has a >20% lead in the polls over his right-wing female rival.
It is highly unlikely that either May or Macron will lose. That does not augur well for future negotiations between the UK and the EU.
At total of 26 per cent backed the timetable while 46 per cent believed there should not be another vote on leaving the UK at all.
The research, in the Kantar Scottish Opinion Monitor, also suggested a weakening in support for independence, with 60 per cent backing staying in the UK and 40 per cent wanting Scotland to leave, when undecided voters were excluded.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sturgeon-setback-as-voters-reject-new-referendum-call-9lzfzqzw6
In January 32% of Leave voters in Wales said they were voting Tory. Today that number has doubled to 63% according to @roger_scully poll
In January 28% of Leave voters in Wales said they were voting UKIP. Today that number has halved to 14% according to @roger_scully poll
In January the @Conservatives led @UKLabour by 14% amongst over 65s (38/24). Today the lead is 32% (53/21) according to @roger_scully poll
In January @UKLabour by 12% amongst over 50-64s in Wales (36/24). Today it's a Tory lead of 9% (37/28) according to the @roger_scully poll
In January @UKLabour led the @Conservatives by 4% amongst 18-24s (30/26) in Wales. Today that lead is up to 24% (45/21)
And behind this these demographic changes:
The over 65 population grew by 20% in Wales since 2005, whilst younger populations flatlined or declined. Impact now being seen politically. This is a key part to understanding Wales's political geography in particular. Older populations are booming and taking a greater share of the electorate. They turnout in high numbers (70-odd per cent) and are moving away from Labour. Younger populations are declining or flatlining and taking a smaller share of the electorate. These younger voters don't vote (40%-ish) The net effect is an electorate which is
older and older. These changes have happened quickly (post-2005). At the same time the older voters have moved away from Labour (35% in 2005 down to 21% today). So the fastest growing [older] groups, occupying higher proportions of the electorate, are having a disproportionate impact upon elections in Wales. We have seen this in Brexit of course and also now with their recent move to the Conservatives. In short, how these older voters move determines a large part of how Welsh elections move. And this will only get worse. Older populations are projected to continue to grow as a proportion well in the 2020s and perhaps beyond in Wales. All parties will have to make peace with that.
LibDems ... whining here.
55+ Con 44 SNP 30
The Tories started to win with the older voter in Wales in 2015.
But you lot don't respect the principle so you'll never understand how.
Labour to unilaterally guarantee EU citizens' rights.
Tom Costley, head of Kantar in Scotland, said: "One group of particular interest is those who voted Yes in the 2014 independence referendum and then voted Leave in the EU referendum - one in three (30 per cent) of this group do not want a referendum at all, possibly suggesting that leaving the EU was their primary goal and at the time Scottish independence seemed the best way to achieve this.
"It is a cautionary reminder that the positive feeling towards the EU expressed in the EU referendum doesn't necessarily translate into full support for independence for Scotland."
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/nicola-sturgeon-independence-vote-backed-by-only-a-quarter-of-scots-poll-a7700416.html
We could offer the Gibraltarians a generous relocation package on St Helena or the Falklands, or perhaps the Pitcairn Islands, while reducing the national debt. Win win win.
And May is famous for her people skills.
IMO, it's more likely than not it'll go blue in June.
There's £5 available to lay @ 6/1 on betfair.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.119683252
They are agreeing their initial negotiating position by the end of the month. I suspect that will provide something for May to rally the troops behind that she can make hay with throughout the (month of) May.
I would suggest the Leavers would make excellent galley slaves.
Wonder how that will go down with the Brits abroad?
Have Labour found another way to lose votes?
But the Labour vote - I have it as a [30,10] split in Cardiff Central and a [25,27] split in Swansea East to get back to [22,15] in Wales nationally this gets back to roughly 60% of the Welsh Labour vote being 'remain'.
I'm wondering if this isn't nearly sharp enough. Anecdotally I reckon the Labour leave/remain vote is massively correlated with class.
Never been on one, so can’t comment!
The Tories are essentially having a free run at the 55% who voted Leave in England and Wales.
Labour, the Lib Dems, the Greens and Plaid are in a bidding war for the 45% who voted Remain.
The SNP have a near free run at the Sindies 44%, while the Tories are gradually winning the battle with Labour and the Libs for the Unionist 56%.
The referendum divides are overwhelmingly benefitting the Tories.
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/election-diary-snp-polls-apart-10289621
I think that Le Pen on 40% is indeed shameful for France and its liberal reputation. The FN strike me as more like the BNP than UKIP. I genuinely don't believe that a party like that would get anything like that share of the vote in the UK and we are a better place for it. People knocking our great country because they don't like our decision on Brexit really need a better sense of proportion.
Whether Macron proves to be good for France only time will tell. I recall Ed Miliband acclaiming Hollande as the future for Europe once and he proved pathetic, even with a party to back him in the Parliament. The resistance to change in France is immense and probably needed a Fillon rather than a Macron to drive it through but he turned out to be a crook. A more dynamic France would be good for them and good for us too. I wish him well but remain sanguine.
The 1.14 price is amazingly generous for such a remote risk.
"Labour - Proudly Putting the British Last".
I imagine this policy will conflict some London Lib Dems though.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/24/paul-nuttall-dodges-questions-on-whether-he-will-stand-in-election-ukip
I got on Macron at 28 though, so sitting pretty.
When that shoe falls, expect another 4% off Labour's polling....
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/856749290349367296
'Do you want a Jeremy Corbyn Government negotiating Brexit or Theresa May'
I'm starting to wonder if their aim is to finish off the Lib Dems.
This policy is aimed fair and square at Remainers and they won't let up on Farron's religious convictions. Tuition fees and Tories' little helpers must come into it soon.
https://twitter.com/simonjhix/status/856625463346831360
In both countries a new leader committed to the constitutional order has a 20% lead over rivals who would tear down the system to implement their extreme world views regardless of the consequences
And, as usual, the population are right. We are about to enter very important and difficult negotiations that require serious thought and no little strategic skill. We need a solid and reliable PM to oversee that. There are times (struggling to think when to be honest) when we could indulge ourselves with something like Corbyn. These are the antithesis of that.
The best the opposition can do is point at Boris, Davis and Fox and express some reservations. Even if you share those reservations look at the team behind Corbyn. This is the most clear cut no brainer of an election I can recall in my adult life. Foot in 83 or Kinnock in 87 were serious players compared to this. Labour have given us this choice and they will pay the consequences for their self indulgence.
Hmm. Bit sleepy, but is the BBC's political editor claiming May is one of the Founders?
Incidentally, there was some airy discussion earlier about fascism amongst FN supporters. Obviously all parties have their proto-nazis but on my fairly regular trips to France (usually around Aude and Roussillon) I've always had the impression that the goose-step was a fairly popular dance. In fact I think I'd be right in saying that a map of FN hotspots would be fairly congruent with one of wartime Vichy.
N'est ce pas, ou non, mon vieux?
You can trust the EU to get the tone wrong. Mind you, they are probably past caring about that.
But it still helps May.