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  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    AndyJS said:

    According to the spreadsheet the Tories need the last declaration in Northumberland to take control.

    Yes, in South Blyth. This was the result last time:

    Result last time:

    LD 46.1%
    UKIP 24.0%
    Lab 23.3%
    Con 6.6%

    www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/results/2013/118/
    oh I see that's why you mentioned it....
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    Is it possible that open warfare will develop between all those MP's whose political careers are in serious jeopardy and Corbyn and his clique.

    Steven Kinnock swerving from Corbyn and saying it is about a the national interest. How on earth are labour MP's going to defend Corbyn in the media over the next five weeks
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    Amazing contrast between Kinnock and Thornberry.... She is in utter spin/denial mode.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    Emily T. says May either paranoid or deeply cynical for wanting ex-ukip votes.

    :lol:

    There's nothing intrinsically wrong with parties trying to win votes from other parties, but Corbyn's Labour don't seem to understand that...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    In the 2015 locals, on the same day as the GE, the average Labour performance against the Tories was one per cent better (NEV) in the locals than the nationals

    Both major parties' NEV was lower than the GE vote - because independents and LibDems do significantly better in local elections - but the key point is that Labour does slightly better against the Tories in a council election than a general election.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    IanB2 said:

    In the 2015 locals, on the same day as the GE, the average Labour performance against the Tories was one per cent better (NEV) in the locals than the nationals

    Both major parties' NEV was lower than the GE vote - because independents and LibDems do significantly better in local elections - but the key point is that Labour does slightly better against the Tories in a council election than a general election.

    I think that underestimates it. People don't like voting for two parties in the same polling booth; they have five weeks between them now.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2017
    Report that it's a dead heat in South Blyth. Control of council to be decided by drawing lots.

    https://twitter.com/BBCFHewison/status/860414616425439232
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    That's a NOC HOLD Northumberland :(
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Amazing contrast between Kinnock and Thornberry.... She is in utter spin/denial mode.

    She always is, she plays the party unity card regardless of leader. I saw her do it for Brown, and Miliband and now she's apparently a Corbynista.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    Looks like Kinnock is trying to move to a post Corbyn landscape already.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,060
    edited May 2017

    Pulpstar said:

    So are UKIP still to trouble the scorers ?

    As someone who has scored cricket matches, let me assure you that nothing troubles the scorers like a flurry of wickets.
    It really does not surprise me that we have multiple people here who have scored cricket matches :)
    I have as well and been paid for it, but only because I was umpiring an Under 12 b school team or similar and didn't trust any of them with the score book.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    @bbclaurak:

    Labour sources say benchmark is share of vote in 2015, not 2013 - not how Curtice would see it, 2013 is more accurate as comparison

    Corbynistas taking that well......
  • TravelgallTravelgall Posts: 33

    Is it possible that open warfare will develop between all those MP's whose political careers are in serious jeopardy and Corbyn and his clique.

    Steven Kinnock swerving from Corbyn and saying it is about a the national interest. How on earth are labour MP's going to defend Corbyn in the media over the next five weeks

    Steve shouldn't worry, he can always follow Father and become EU Commissioner for.... Oh hang on. Well there's always the Tate Modern gig - I believe the V&A is already taken.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    isam said:
    Not Andrew Neil's finest hour. His argument is imbecillic and Emily Thornberry is clearly correct.
    .
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    The Tories won west of england mayor. Was that expected given that takes in cities like bristol and bath?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    BBC.. so slow.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    They didn't even show the tie-breaker!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957

    The Tories won west of england mayor. Was that expected given that takes in cities like bristol and bath?

    The most shocking thing about that was the Lib Dems finishing third.
  • TravelgallTravelgall Posts: 33
    Fenster said:

    SeanT said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    There is good news hidden in these dire results for Labour.

    UKIP is collapsing, the LDs are moribund. Both could theoretically have replaced them as the main Opposition after Brexit, if we'd seen a massive, Scottish-style realignment. But it seems that ain't the case - yet.

    Labour will survive. If and when they come to their senses, they will return to power.

    A big if but yes, if not moderate Labour types may have to do a Macron and form a new centrist party with the LDs
    Exactly. Sean is missing the point that it's what happens to Labour after the oncoming massive defeat that will shape the future. The civil war is breaking out on Labourlist already. Does anyone really think that Yvette Cooper will simply pick up the pieces and under a united party she will turn into the next Tony Blair by 2025?

    The forthcoming battle inside Labour is going to be savage because the side that loses will be finished inside the party for a very, very long time. If the moderates do win they will lock down all processes and procedures to ensure that the far left never gets close to the leadership again. So, if Cooper did emerge I would expect that Labour would be pretty much united and ready to go at the next GE. If the far left wins, then Labour will split and the Tories will have a clear run until the 2030s.

    If Labour go down to 150 seats or so, or even fewer, the Tories might have a clear run til the 2030s anyway.

    I had an interesting drink with a left leaning poet friend last night. We decided that Corbyn is a kind of oracular, shamanic figure for some young voters. He's a cultic leader with a religious halo, who fulfils the spiritual hunger in godless youngsters. This is why he can say or do anything and all his flaws are explained away. He's Jim Jones. He's Brigham Young. He's guiding Labour to Salt Lake City.
    Fantastic Brigham Young reference. LOL.

    Fred Phelps was a modern-day Brigham Young. Looked a bit like Corbyn too.
    Do they serve powdered soft drinks at the Momentum meetings?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    RobD said:

    That's a NOC HOLD Northumberland :(

    Just get the Tories to offer one of the bunch of independents a portfolio and they will be fine....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    RobD said:

    That's a NOC HOLD Northumberland :(

    Just get the Tories to offer one of the bunch of independents a portfolio and they will be fine....
    Yeah I know.. but it does mean it doesn't go blue.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    edited May 2017

    IanB2 said:

    In the 2015 locals, on the same day as the GE, the average Labour performance against the Tories was one per cent better (NEV) in the locals than the nationals

    Both major parties' NEV was lower than the GE vote - because independents and LibDems do significantly better in local elections - but the key point is that Labour does slightly better against the Tories in a council election than a general election.

    I think that underestimates it. People don't like voting for two parties in the same polling booth; they have five weeks between them now.
    You're right about the five weeks. But whereas I too used to think co-elections made people less likely to split their votes, having won my ward twice in such circumstances when we came third in the national election on the same day in the same ballot boxes, I don't believe this any more. Indeed there is an argument that still being able to support their 'usual party' on the national ballot paper makes people more relaxed about voting differently for their local councillor.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,748
    edited May 2017
    calum said:

    SeanT said:

    Prof Fisher on the Scottish locals:

    https://electionsetc.com/2017/05/03/scottish-local-elections-forecast-2017/

    CON 287 +172
    LAB 75 -319
    LD 82 +11
    SNP 553 +129
    GRN 12 -2

    Prof Fisher predicting SLab to get 6 % in Scotland.
    6%

    Jeezo
    It isn't credible.
    I have seen at least one Scottish subsample for a Westminster VI with Labour on 6% but no, I don't think it's likely.

    Apart from anything else, STV and the cautious nominations made by other parties will protect them from a complete wipeout.
    Scottish politics is in turmoil for sure. The Scottish Conservatives might even edge the Nats today.
    I suppose you Yoons have to hope so, otherwise Tessy's objections to Indy Ref II are naught but dust.

    “We will also be looking forward to the local elections in May, when voters across Scotland will have the chance to send a clear message to the SNP that they do not want a second independence referendum, by voting Scottish Conservative and Unionist on 4 May.”

    Wonder how many councils SCON will have outright control of out of 32?
    It'll certainly come as a nasty shock to any SCons that do win outright when they discover that 'No to a second referendum' does not a council run.

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    AndyJS said:

    Report that it's a dead heat in South Blyth. Control of council to be decided by drawing lots.

    https://twitter.com/BBCFHewison/status/860414616425439232

    Is that what is meant by a 'straw poll'? :)

    I'll get me coat.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,729
    Roger said:

    isam said:
    Not Andrew Neil's finest hour. His argument is imbecillic and Emily Thornberry is clearly correct.
    .
    Really? I think most normal people would think those who leave the UK to fight for IS have made their bed
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    So LibDems won a seat from the Conservatives in Northumberland by drawing a short straw.

    @justin124 will be pleased.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    RobD said:

    They didn't even show the tie-breaker!

    No sense of occasion.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    RobD said:
    Go LibDems! Although that looks like a big vote share change from last time?
  • TravelgallTravelgall Posts: 33

    Emily T. says May either paranoid or deeply cynical for wanting ex-ukip votes.

    :lol:

    There's nothing intrinsically wrong with parties trying to win votes from other parties, but Corbyn's Labour don't seem to understand that...
    Stay "Pure" Emily. You've always got the Judiciary to prolong the inevitable.
  • Arthur_PennyArthur_Penny Posts: 198

    Pulpstar said:

    So are UKIP still to trouble the scorers ?

    As someone who has scored cricket matches, let me assure you that nothing troubles the scorers like a flurry of wickets.
    It really does not surprise me that we have multiple people here who have scored cricket matches :)
    I have as well and been paid for it, but only because I was umpiring an Under 12 b school team or similar and didn't trust any of them with the score book.
    I did it for a couple of years for the school 'B' team as a fellow pupil. The key is concentration. (The 1970s red scorebooks were probably much less sophisticated than the ones currently in use)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    SeanT said:
    Only another 400,000 odd members to go and Labour can be restored to some level of professionalism.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571

    Mr. Herdson, that's a war rather than a shorter incident (I know you might argue the Fourth Crusade was too, but that would be to define a particularly bad, potentially terminal, result).

    I wouldn't rank the Third Punic War highly, actually. It was a superpower versus a city-state, and the Romans took three or four years to win. It was easily their least impressive war victory over the Carthaginians.

    It's also worth noting the original list had Cannae, at -70 seats, as the worst result. Then the terrible polls for Labour came out and others suggested a few more.

    Now it's being suggested, badger-style, that the goalposts need to be moved again, once more in a bad way for Labour.

    Yes, I accept that. But then there comes a stage where a single battle - or the consequences of a lost battle - are so utterly terminal that the battle defines the war.

    In terms of martial prowess, I agree that the Romans didn't do a particularly stellar job but that wasn't my point. The point was that the result wasn't just 'potentially terminal', in your phrase, but literally absolutely and utterly terminal. As a war of annihilation, I don't think it has an equal.
    The conquest of the Americas, perhaps ?

    A better analogy might be Towton. The Lancastrian forces roundly massacred, and the Yorkist monarchy firmly entrenched - but scarcely a couple of decades later, Bosworth.

    it's not as though the left of centre is going to disappear.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited May 2017
    Drunker being a twat again. I am surprised may didn't hit him with her handbag when they had that dinner.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    LibDems won a seat in Northumberland by drawing straws. THAT close to the Tories taking control....

  • isamisam Posts: 40,729
    SeanT said:
    Nominating/voting for Corbyn was the ultimate virtual signal
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    SeanT said:

    Prof Fisher on the Scottish locals:

    https://electionsetc.com/2017/05/03/scottish-local-elections-forecast-2017/

    CON 287 +172
    LAB 75 -319
    LD 82 +11
    SNP 553 +129
    GRN 12 -2

    Prof Fisher predicting SLab to get 6 % in Scotland.
    6%

    Jeezo
    It isn't credible.
    I have seen at least one Scottish subsample for a Westminster VI with Labour on 6% but no, I don't think it's likely.

    Apart from anything else, STV and the cautious nominations made by other parties will protect them from a complete wipeout.
    Scottish politics is in turmoil for sure. The Scottish Conservatives might even edge the Nats today.
    I suppose you Yoons have to hope so, otherwise Tessy's objections to Indy Ref II are naught but dust.

    “We will also be looking forward to the local elections in May, when voters across Scotland will have the chance to send a clear message to the SNP that they do not want a second independence referendum, by voting Scottish Conservative and Unionist on 4 May.”

    No, the objections are more fundamental than that.
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107

    Is it possible that open warfare will develop between all those MP's whose political careers are in serious jeopardy and Corbyn and his clique.

    Steven Kinnock swerving from Corbyn and saying it is about a the national interest. How on earth are labour MP's going to defend Corbyn in the media over the next five weeks

    What a conundrum they face: vote for me and get Corbyn.

    Serves them right.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    Still giggling at how many scorers we have on PB.

    Unsurprising, but still amusing.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Looks like Kinnock is trying to move to a post Corbyn landscape already.

    *Cough*

    *** BETTING POST ***

    haven't had one of those for a while...

    Still following the suggestion from PfP about looking at potential Labour leadership contenders who have majorities greater than 10,000 and therefore might still be in contention

    looking at this spreadsheet

    http://www.politicsresources.net/area/uk/mps-maj.htm

    Starting at 10,000, one of the first names on the list is Catherine McKinnell who I personally think would be an excellent choice, but is probably disqualified on account of being the wrong sex for a Labour leader.

    A few rows below that though, we come to a name that seems almost destined.

    A leader who can clean up the mess and dispel the loony left from the party forever.

    I give you, Stephen Kinnock

    @ 33/1 with the magic sign

    I'm on.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001

    Drunker being a twat again. I am surprised may didn't hit him with her handbag when they had that dinner.

    What's he done now
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Anyone know what's up in Hertfordshire? They've counted all but one district for the last several hours now.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    IanB2 said:

    The biggest challenge the Tories will have is that there are still four weeks to go, and today's headlines are clearly signalling already that Labour cannot win. At the very least, their manifesto will come under intense scrutiny.

    Only if the EU can maintain diplomatic silence for a few weeks.

    A period of Brexit silence from them and the pro-Remain, pro-left press would probably be more dangerous for the Tories than it featuring prominently in the news every day.

  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792


    So LibDems won a seat from the Conservatives in Northumberland by drawing a short straw.

    @justin124 will be pleased.

    LibDems clutching at straws.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited May 2017

    Still giggling at how many scorers we have on PB.

    Unsurprising, but still amusing.

    I'm reminded of the headmaster lf Eton who, on the first xi losing to Harrow had the entire team flogged, including the scorer!
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    SeanT said:
    Plenty of people warned idiots like her that Corbyn was bad news. And they were roundly poo-poohed. So tough shit for morons like her who waste newsprint parading their empty-headed self-righteousness and presumed - and unjustified - self-claimed moral superiority over the rest of us.

    Perhaps if people like her had actually bothered to look into what Corbyn said and believed over the years and compared it to the values she claims to believe in, Labour might not now be in such a mess. I have very little sympathy for self-indulgent nitwits like her.

    For those who - like SO - would like a decent social democratic/left of centre party to vote for, rather more so. Rather a lot in fact. We all lose out by not having a viable opposition party.

    I hope the revenge - when it comes - on the Corbynites and their fellow travellers is so savage that they slink off into the darkest recesses where far left groupuscules are usually found, never to be heard of again.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited May 2017

    Drunker being a twat again. I am surprised may didn't hit him with her handbag when they had that dinner.

    What's he done now
    He is at a conference and announced he would speak in French rather than (as expected) English, because English is now losing importance, followed by a big smirk.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    It'll certainly come as a nasty shock to any SCons that do win outright when they discover that 'No to a second referendum' does not a council run.

    LOL

    But Tories, the Tories, Westminster, the Tories, THE TORIES is how you run a country...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001

    Still giggling at how many scorers we have on PB.

    Unsurprising, but still amusing.

    I used to love scoring cricket and my Mother made an art form of it
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    RobD said:

    Anyone know what's up in Hertfordshire? They've counted all but one district for the last several hours now.

    I don't think Watford have even started counting yet.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    edited May 2017

    Drunker being a twat again. I am surprised may didn't hit him with her handbag when they had that dinner.

    What's he done now
    He is at a conference and announced he would speak in French rather than (as expected) English, but English is now losing importance, followed by a big smirk.
    Our country's influence may go down the pan but I suspect he'll find that our language will be fine (insofar as that is what the Americans actually speak)
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535

    Emily T. says May either paranoid or deeply cynical for wanting ex-ukip votes.


    Eeeew! Proles! Who gave them the vote?
    It could go on a poster that "Kippers, Labour does not want your votes."
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001

    Drunker being a twat again. I am surprised may didn't hit him with her handbag when they had that dinner.

    What's he done now
    He is at a conference and announced he would speak in French rather than (as expected) English, but English is now losing importance, followed by a big smirk.
    I can see the time coming when Theresa May halts all talks until he is removed from the process
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    Any sign of Mark Senior? I guess he still has Cornwall to look forward to.....
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    Morning comrades.

    Everything going well for the "Progressive Alliance" then? ;)
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,748

    SeanT said:

    Prof Fisher on the Scottish locals:

    https://electionsetc.com/2017/05/03/scottish-local-elections-forecast-2017/

    CON 287 +172
    LAB 75 -319
    LD 82 +11
    SNP 553 +129
    GRN 12 -2

    Prof Fisher predicting SLab to get 6 % in Scotland.
    6%

    Jeezo
    It isn't credible.
    I have seen at least one Scottish subsample for a Westminster VI with Labour on 6% but no, I don't think it's likely.

    Apart from anything else, STV and the cautious nominations made by other parties will protect them from a complete wipeout.
    Scottish politics is in turmoil for sure. The Scottish Conservatives might even edge the Nats today.
    I suppose you Yoons have to hope so, otherwise Tessy's objections to Indy Ref II are naught but dust.

    “We will also be looking forward to the local elections in May, when voters across Scotland will have the chance to send a clear message to the SNP that they do not want a second independence referendum, by voting Scottish Conservative and Unionist on 4 May.”

    No, the objections are more fundamental than that.

    But, but, but Tessy has spoken!

    In any case any objections you might have aren't really in the running.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080


    So LibDems won a seat from the Conservatives in Northumberland by drawing a short straw.

    @justin124 will be pleased.

    LibDems clutching at straws.
    Was a hold, not a gain?
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    glw said:

    Emily T. says May either paranoid or deeply cynical for wanting ex-ukip votes.


    Eeeew! Proles! Who gave them the vote?
    It could go on a poster that "Kippers, Labour does not want your votes."
    I think the word is "Deplorables".
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    GIN1138 said:

    Morning comrades.

    Everything going well for the "Progressive Alliance" then? ;)

    A tactical retreat
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059

    Still giggling at how many scorers we have on PB.

    Unsurprising, but still amusing.

    another nightmare is when you are a team of 'all rounders' in not being good at betting or bowling so the skipper gives everyone an over when things going tits up.... even changing keeper.... there's no room on the page.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    SeanT said:

    Drunker being a twat again. I am surprised may didn't hit him with her handbag when they had that dinner.

    What's he done now
    He is at a conference and announced he would speak in French rather than (as expected) English, but English is now losing importance, followed by a big smirk.
    Also complete bollocks, of course. The overwhelming dominance of English as a second language - and as a first global language in social media, business, travel, science, the Net - means it HAS to be the EU's working language. Indeed the departure of the UK might make that easier for the French to bear, emotionally.
    Also the language in which many courses at the best European universities are taught.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited May 2017

    I'm going to West Ham v Spurs tonight, astonished to see Spurs are 2/5. OK they're on fire and West Ham are rubbish but this is their biggest game of the season, 2/5 is just wrong.

    Won't be laying it myself but neutrals might consider it.

    West Ham have no one fit in their front line (waiting on Carroll) - story of the season.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263

    The Tories won west of england mayor. Was that expected given that takes in cities like bristol and bath?

    The most shocking thing about that was the Lib Dems finishing third.
    Curtice says on this (hat-tip Guardian):

    A pretty bad night for Labour, with just a couple of glimmers of hope: hanging on to Cardiff, which we weren’t necessarily expecting, actually hanging on to Newport too, which was quite a good result, and also running the Conservatives much closer in the West of England mayoral election than we might have anticipated.

    Current swing to Tories since 2013 is about 8%, consisting of Lab -3, Con +13. That fits with what some of us were saying from the doorstep - Labour vote more or less holding up, Cons eating UKIP. Incidentally, I met extremely few voters (two, during 11 hours of knockup, IIRC) who said they planned to vote differently at the GE, so whatever the outcome today, it's probably fair to treat it as a good poll of the same areas in the GE. There will be local variations, but so there are at GEs.

    But let's all await today's results before celebrating/mourning.
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    IanB2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Morning comrades.

    Everything going well for the "Progressive Alliance" then? ;)

    A tactical retreat
    A flesh wound.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Cyclefree said:

    SeanT said:
    Plenty of people warned idiots like her that Corbyn was bad news. And they were roundly poo-poohed. So tough shit for morons like her who waste newsprint parading their empty-headed self-righteousness and presumed - and unjustified - self-claimed moral superiority over the rest of us.

    Perhaps if people like her had actually bothered to look into what Corbyn said and believed over the years and compared it to the values she claims to believe in, Labour might not now be in such a mess. I have very little sympathy for self-indulgent nitwits like her.

    For those who - like SO - would like a decent social democratic/left of centre party to vote for, rather more so. Rather a lot in fact. We all lose out by not having a viable opposition party.

    I hope the revenge - when it comes - on the Corbynites and their fellow travellers is so savage that they slink off into the darkest recesses where far left groupuscules are usually found, never to be heard of again.

    Get off the fence Cyclefree. Say what you think.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    IanB2 said:

    Drunker being a twat again. I am surprised may didn't hit him with her handbag when they had that dinner.

    What's he done now
    He is at a conference and announced he would speak in French rather than (as expected) English, but English is now losing importance, followed by a big smirk.
    Our country's influence may go down the pan but I suspect he'll find that our language will be fine (insofar as that is what the Americans think they actually speak)
    Corrected for you :grin:
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    AndyJS said:

    RobD said:

    Anyone know what's up in Hertfordshire? They've counted all but one district for the last several hours now.

    I don't think Watford have even started counting yet.
    OK, thanks. Would like to be able to close that one up.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Urquhart, even when I was at school, German businesses routinely held meetings in English.

    Juncker being a daft sod is not very surprising, alas.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535
    IanB2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Morning comrades.

    Everything going well for the "Progressive Alliance" then? ;)

    A tactical retreat
    Straight into their own minefield.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535
    IanB2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Morning comrades.

    Everything going well for the "Progressive Alliance" then? ;)

    A tactical retreat
    Straight into their own minefield.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2017
    Tories could be on course to win Blyth Valley and Wansbeck where they need swings of more than 10%.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957

    Still giggling at how many scorers we have on PB.

    Unsurprising, but still amusing.

    another nightmare is when you are a team of 'all rounders' in not being good at betting or bowling so the skipper gives everyone an over when things going tits up.... even changing keeper.... there's no room on the page.
    Another nightmare, when the umpire can't count, and we get a 5 or 7 ball over.

    God, I wanted to walk onto the pitch and give him a slap.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835

    RobD said:

    That's a NOC HOLD Northumberland :(

    Just get the Tories to offer one of the bunch of independents a portfolio and they will be fine....
    Which is exactly what Labour did last time.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,748
    Scott_P said:

    It'll certainly come as a nasty shock to any SCons that do win outright when they discover that 'No to a second referendum' does not a council run.

    LOL

    But Tories, the Tories, Westminster, the Tories, THE TORIES is how you run a country...
    You've got your finger on the fluttering pulse of the SConosphere, doncha? Surely you must have some examples of vibrant policies that SCon led councils would be enacting? Perhaps they'd follow the courageous example of S.Ayrshire council over the named child scheme for example?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,543

    @NumbrCruncherPolitics:

    Swing from LAB to CON running at about 7%. Suggests a similar national margin for the Tories as in 1982, which was during the Falklands War

    That means high single digits or low double digits, depending on later results, turnout patterns, and so on...

    That sounds plausible, but we'll have a lot more data today. The results so far are actually better than the 15-20-point lead in polls, especially in most of Wales despite expectations. But the West Country result is great for the Torie and clearly Destroy UKIP is working very well in their favour.

    On the last thread, IanB2 said Labour tended to do better in local elections than national. Is that actually correct? The LibDems do, but Labour?
    Am I right in thinking the Conservatives are picking up seats from everyone but votes almost entirely from UKIP, with a smallish gain from Labour, compared with the previous election?

    If so, Corbyn isn't THE problem for Labour, although he clearly doesn't improve their chances.

  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    Roger said:

    Roger said:




    Cyclefree said:

    Morning all.

    Never mind these piffling elections. Today is my youngest's 19th birthday - the first one when I will not see him (sniff - he's in Manchester, the git) and the first day of my daughter's finals (she's studying Classical Civilisation). Oh and it's also the 196th anniversary of Napoleon's death.

    Plus the sun is finally shining - at least here in North West London.

    Apparently Manchester is now the most popular university because of the night life. I guess at that age they don't worry about things like weather
    Was that intended to be helpful?
    Probably about as helpful as TSE sharing his knowledge of 'classical civilization'!
    I've learnt a lot about historical battles on this website. (Or at least their names and results).
    It was a joke. I'm sure TSE's knowledge of classical civilization goes well beyond mine which ends with the remake of 'SHE'!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    My county (West Sussex) are publishing results via an updating pdf file. What is this 1994?

    aarrgghh!!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Jonathan said:

    My county (West Sussex) are publishing results via an updating pdf file. What is this 1994?

    aarrgghh!!

    Have they just updated their tech from carrier pigeon?
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414

    Still giggling at how many scorers we have on PB.

    Unsurprising, but still amusing.

    another nightmare is when you are a team of 'all rounders' in not being good at betting or bowling so the skipper gives everyone an over when things going tits up.... even changing keeper.... there's no room on the page.
    Another nightmare, when the umpire can't count, and we get a 5 or 7 ball over.

    God, I wanted to walk onto the pitch and give him a slap.
    I was asked to score after I got moved down the batting order from No 12, but I never took to it. There was this chap in a hat in the middle of the field who kept waving his arms about and distracting me.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    I've backed the Tories at 4-1 in Blyth Valley, I don't expect it to win, but my model had it close and it'd surely be the shock of the night.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    Jonathan said:

    My county (West Sussex) are publishing results via an updating pdf file. What is this 1994?

    aarrgghh!!

    I'll help you. Con Hold.
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107
    chestnut said:

    I'm going to West Ham v Spurs tonight, astonished to see Spurs are 2/5. OK they're on fire and West Ham are rubbish but this is their biggest game of the season, 2/5 is just wrong.

    Won't be laying it myself but neutrals might consider it.

    West Ham have no one fit in their front line (waiting on Carroll) - story of the season.
    That's good news.

    Don't get me wrong Spurs are far better all over the pitch but I'm scarred by previous experiences.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Jonathan said:

    My county (West Sussex) are publishing results via an updating pdf file. What is this 1994?

    aarrgghh!!

    All councils should have a page like Northumberland's. It just showed a list of declared results on chronological order. Super simple. None of this crap click on 57 wards on a map to get the results.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Urquhart, outrageous modernity!

    The only way to record electoral results is bronze stele.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Right off to ze count :p (Derbyshire)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    Pulpstar said:

    Right off to ze count :p (Derbyshire)

    Good luck Pulpstar. :)
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,748
    First Scotch result?

    https://twitter.com/EyjarSkeggi/status/860412649477156864

    The other 2 elected in the ward are independents I think.
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414

    Mr. Urquhart, even when I was at school, German businesses routinely held meetings in English.

    Juncker being a daft sod is not very surprising, alas.

    We have French speaking Belgian friends, but interestingly, they always swear in English.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    Pulpstar said:

    Right off to ze count :p (Derbyshire)

    Good luck.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461

    Still giggling at how many scorers we have on PB.

    Unsurprising, but still amusing.

    another nightmare is when you are a team of 'all rounders' in not being good at betting or bowling so the skipper gives everyone an over when things going tits up.... even changing keeper.... there's no room on the page.
    Another nightmare, when the umpire can't count, and we get a 5 or 7 ball over.

    God, I wanted to walk onto the pitch and give him a slap.
    we used to play in an evening cricket league where we had 8-ball overs to reduce time wasted changing ends to make maximum use of the light. a couple of no balls in an over there and things got very messy.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    FF43 said:

    @NumbrCruncherPolitics:

    Swing from LAB to CON running at about 7%. Suggests a similar national margin for the Tories as in 1982, which was during the Falklands War

    That means high single digits or low double digits, depending on later results, turnout patterns, and so on...

    That sounds plausible, but we'll have a lot more data today. The results so far are actually better than the 15-20-point lead in polls, especially in most of Wales despite expectations. But the West Country result is great for the Torie and clearly Destroy UKIP is working very well in their favour.

    On the last thread, IanB2 said Labour tended to do better in local elections than national. Is that actually correct? The LibDems do, but Labour?
    Am I right in thinking the Conservatives are picking up seats from everyone but votes almost entirely from UKIP, with a smallish gain from Labour, compared with the previous election?

    If so, Corbyn isn't THE problem for Labour, although he clearly doesn't improve their chances.

    If the Lib Dems are not picking up seats and the Greens are not scooping them up while Labour are falling back, then it's a problem of the left in it's entirety - soft, hard and mushy middle.

  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    SeanT said:

    Prof Fisher on the Scottish locals:

    https://electionsetc.com/2017/05/03/scottish-local-elections-forecast-2017/

    CON 287 +172
    LAB 75 -319
    LD 82 +11
    SNP 553 +129
    GRN 12 -2

    Prof Fisher predicting SLab to get 6 % in Scotland.
    6%

    Jeezo
    It isn't credible.
    I have seen at least one Scottish subsample for a Westminster VI with Labour on 6% but no, I don't think it's likely.

    Apart from anything else, STV and the cautious nominations made by other parties will protect them from a complete wipeout.
    Scottish politics is in turmoil for sure. The Scottish Conservatives might even edge the Nats today.
    I suppose you Yoons have to hope so, otherwise Tessy's objections to Indy Ref II are naught but dust.

    “We will also be looking forward to the local elections in May, when voters across Scotland will have the chance to send a clear message to the SNP that they do not want a second independence referendum, by voting Scottish Conservative and Unionist on 4 May.”

    No, the objections are more fundamental than that.

    But, but, but Tessy has spoken!

    In any case any objections you might have aren't really in the running.
    No, here's the fundamental objection:

    (1) The Scottish Parliament does not have the legal power to call a referendum
    (2) The UK Parliament will only grant a referendum pursuant to an agreement between the UK and Scottish governments
    (3) To get an agreement, the Scottish government will have to break the existing agreement
    (4) Yeah, good luck with that.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792

    Scott_P said:

    It'll certainly come as a nasty shock to any SCons that do win outright when they discover that 'No to a second referendum' does not a council run.

    LOL

    But Tories, the Tories, Westminster, the Tories, THE TORIES is how you run a country...
    You've got your finger on the fluttering pulse of the SConosphere, doncha? Surely you must have some examples of vibrant policies that SCon led councils would be enacting? Perhaps they'd follow the courageous example of S.Ayrshire council over the named child scheme for example?
    Panic stations as suddenly the day job is oh so important for our Nat day dreamers.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Jonathan said:

    My county (West Sussex) are publishing results via an updating pdf file. What is this 1994?

    aarrgghh!!

    I'll help you. Con Hold.
    Well, we'd like to know UKIP's performance :p
This discussion has been closed.