I may be getting it all wrong but the biggie on these elections is the Lib Dem dog that doesn't seem to have barked.
It would seem from RobD's excellent spreadsheet that that the LIb Dems are still net losers. That wasn't supposed to happen was it? Where does this leave the idea that they were to improve dramatically at the GE?
I am still too busy at work to keep up with this. Can someone of a neutral and unexcitable none Tory persuasion (e.g. Alastair) give me the OK/FUBAR level for Corbyn on a scale of 1-10. Cheers!
I'm unsure if I count as non-Tory persuasion, but I'd say it's currently a five. It's not as bad is it could be, and it looks like he'll beat Labour's worst predictions - e.g. they've held Cardiff. Other areas look expectedly bad.
Corbyn will stay on until the GE (there's little point in getting rid of him before then anyway).
But it's not over yet ...
Yes it is.
I don't think it is. If Labour lose the mayoraltys (e.g. Manchester) then the pressure really will be back on Corbyn. Doubt that will happen, and not sure what they could do about him anyway.
So far, there's enough 'good' for his fans and wider Labour to point at. And that's probably another victory for the Conservtives today ...
I meant it was all over for Labour in the GE, not Corbyn. He'll hang on whatever the result.
Rather than obsessing about "Will Corbyn resign?", given the LD's rubbish showing will Farron resign?
I'd like to see Clegg do a Lazarus
He may be the LDs best option
Imagine if the Lib Dems did a quick leadership shuffle, and then Labour MPs said that Clegg was their choice for PM in a coalition, not Corbyn.
Whatever his virtues, I think that the time of the Moderate Messiah has passed (not that it ever really arrived: his party went backwards in 2010.) And most of the electorate will not be going to vote whilst drunk or high on drugs either. Hence this particular plan has a low probability of success.
Once the dust settles it would be interesting to see how the Libdems have done in their target seats and seats they once held. That's all that matters for the GE.
It certainly isn't ALL that matters because the Lib Dems wanted some momentum out of this set of locals and plainly haven't got it.
That said, you are right that it DOES matter, and the indicators so far are reasonably promising (though not electrifying) from those I've looked at.
I am still too busy at work to keep up with this. Can someone of a neutral and unexcitable none Tory persuasion (e.g. Alastair) give me the OK/FUBAR level for Corbyn on a scale of 1-10. Cheers!
I'm unsure if I count as non-Tory persuasion, but I'd say it's currently a five. It's not as bad is it could be, and it looks like he'll beat Labour's worst predictions - e.g. they've held Cardiff. Other areas look expectedly bad.
Corbyn will stay on until the GE (there's little point in getting rid of him before then anyway).
But it's not over yet ...
Yes it is.
I don't think it is. If Labour lose the mayoraltys (e.g. Manchester) then the pressure really will be back on Corbyn. Doubt that will happen, and not sure what they could do about him anyway.
So far, there's enough 'good' for his fans and wider Labour to point at. And that's probably another victory for the Conservtives today ...
I meant it was all over for Labour in the GE, not Corbyn. He'll hang on whatever the result.
@severincarrell: So: @ScotTories resurgence brings them neck & neck @theSNP in Stirling, with 9 seats each, after SNP lose one & Tories gain 5 #Council17
I may be getting it all wrong but the biggie on these elections is the Lib Dem dog that doesn't seem to have barked.
It would seem from RobD's excellent spreadsheet that that the LIb Dems are still net losers. That wasn't supposed to happen was it? Where does this leave the idea that they were to improve dramatically at the GE?
The seats that I was campaigning in at the weekend have gone yellow, including the one of the PPC for Bosworth. Leics has a very nice map online:
Regretting laying off some of my SCon over 9.5 seats bet now.
I'm going to be tipster of the year for tipping Tories over 9.5 seats in Scotland at 20/1 if that comes off.
I still think 4 to 6 seats more likely.
TSE - I have some bad news for you ..... just as I was deseverdly on the cusp of winning this award, it was scrapped by OGH, largely as a result of outright cheating by a certain PB old timer someone pipping PtP and yours truly to this much coveted prize.
I may be getting it all wrong but the biggie on these elections is the Lib Dem dog that doesn't seem to have barked.
It would seem from RobD's excellent spreadsheet that that the LIb Dems are still net losers. That wasn't supposed to happen was it? Where does this leave the idea that they were to improve dramatically at the GE?
Yes, all those by election victories aren't looking so great now.
I may be getting it all wrong but the biggie on these elections is the Lib Dem dog that doesn't seem to have barked.
It would seem from RobD's excellent spreadsheet that that the LIb Dems are still net losers. That wasn't supposed to happen was it? Where does this leave the idea that they were to improve dramatically at the GE?
It leaves it thus: the LibDems are a screaming sell at the current SpreadEx spread of 23-26.
The Midlands looks like it will be the Labour bloodbath I was expecting. And it will be worse at the GE. If you were going to devise a political figure designed specifically to repel Midlanders Corbyn would be it. If you didn't get it quite right you'd probably end up with Ed Miliband.
Actually, no - it's mixed. The Tories gained Derbyshire but I think have fallen short in Notts (though 11 seats still to declare), in some cases by large margins, and very nearly lost two in my former patch. They've lost in Coventry but may well win the overall West Mids results. They've piled up lots of votes in seats they already held, but seemingly failed to break through in depressed areas like Mansfield. It's a good Tory result but a reasonable Labour defence so far - but let's see the final results before concluding anything.
Health warning: Some Labour voters in areas where the party is still holding up at local level may not be so keen to vote for Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister.
Regretting laying off some of my SCon over 9.5 seats bet now.
I'm going to be tipster of the year for tipping Tories over 9.5 seats in Scotland at 20/1 if that comes off.
I still think 4 to 6 seats more likely.
TSE - I have some bad news for you ..... just as I was deseverdly on the cusp of winning this award, it was scrapped by OGH, largely as a result of outright cheating by a certain PB old timer someone pipping PtP and yours truly to this much coveted prize.
He'll bring it back when I do the double, that bet and when either Richard Burgon or Diane Abbott become next Labour leader, tipped at 100/1 by yours truly.
I may be getting it all wrong but the biggie on these elections is the Lib Dem dog that doesn't seem to have barked.
It would seem from RobD's excellent spreadsheet that that the LIb Dems are still net losers. That wasn't supposed to happen was it? Where does this leave the idea that they were to improve dramatically at the GE?
It leaves it thus: the LibDems are a screaming sell at the current SpreadEx spread of 23-26.
Tony Blair nailed it.
"Never underestimate the Tories; never overestimate the Liberal Democrats"
I may be getting it all wrong but the biggie on these elections is the Lib Dem dog that doesn't seem to have barked.
It would seem from RobD's excellent spreadsheet that that the LIb Dems are still net losers. That wasn't supposed to happen was it? Where does this leave the idea that they were to improve dramatically at the GE?
It leaves it thus: the LibDems are a screaming sell at the current SpreadEx spread of 23-26.
Caveat - I am now running a bit behind the BBC numbers.
I may be getting it all wrong but the biggie on these elections is the Lib Dem dog that doesn't seem to have barked.
It would seem from RobD's excellent spreadsheet that that the LIb Dems are still net losers. That wasn't supposed to happen was it? Where does this leave the idea that they were to improve dramatically at the GE?
It leaves it thus: the LibDems are a screaming sell at the current SpreadEx spread of 23-26.
Sell at 23? I'm considering emptying my position above 10!
I may be getting it all wrong but the biggie on these elections is the Lib Dem dog that doesn't seem to have barked.
It would seem from RobD's excellent spreadsheet that that the LIb Dems are still net losers. That wasn't supposed to happen was it? Where does this leave the idea that they were to improve dramatically at the GE?
It leaves it thus: the LibDems are a screaming sell at the current SpreadEx spread of 23-26.
Sell at 23? I'm considering emptying my position above 10!
Two gains in Scotland and... What else?
Can see them gaining Eastbourne, and a few of the SW London seats from the Tories.
Simon Hughes is another gain.
Edit: Also, the home of the finest university in the universe
I may be getting it all wrong but the biggie on these elections is the Lib Dem dog that doesn't seem to have barked.
It would seem from RobD's excellent spreadsheet that that the LIb Dems are still net losers. That wasn't supposed to happen was it? Where does this leave the idea that they were to improve dramatically at the GE?
It leaves it thus: the LibDems are a screaming sell at the current SpreadEx spread of 23-26.
Sell at 23? I'm considering emptying my position above 10!
Two gains in Scotland and... What else?
Cambridge. Maybe something down on the south coast? I think that may be offset by losses, though.
The Midlands looks like it will be the Labour bloodbath I was expecting. And it will be worse at the GE. If you were going to devise a political figure designed specifically to repel Midlanders Corbyn would be it. If you didn't get it quite right you'd probably end up with Ed Miliband.
Actually, no - it's mixed. The Tories gained Derbyshire but I think have fallen short in Notts (though 11 seats still to declare), in some cases by large margins, and very nearly lost two in my former patch. They've lost in Coventry but may well win the overall West Mids results. They've piled up lots of votes in seats they already held, but seemingly failed to break through in depressed areas like Mansfield. It's a good Tory result but a reasonable Labour defence so far - but let's see the final results before concluding anything.
Health warning: Some Labour voters in areas where the party is still holding up at local level may not be so keen to vote for Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister.
In heory yes, but Southam was talking about these results. And FWIW I don't think the GE figures will be very different unless there are major new developments. As I said in an earlier post, in 11 hours I only met two voters who said they'd vote differently in the GE (naturally we asked). My impression is that people who dislike Corbyn enough to switch from Labour have now done so, and the current figures are correct. Which are, as I predicted and as we're now seeing, poor but not as bad as the polls have been suggesting.
I wonder if the polls have now been over-tweaked after the 2015 meltdown and now underestimate Labour turnout?
I may be getting it all wrong but the biggie on these elections is the Lib Dem dog that doesn't seem to have barked.
It would seem from RobD's excellent spreadsheet that that the LIb Dems are still net losers. That wasn't supposed to happen was it? Where does this leave the idea that they were to improve dramatically at the GE?
It leaves it thus: the LibDems are a screaming sell at the current SpreadEx spread of 23-26.
Sell at 23? I'm considering emptying my position above 10!
Two gains in Scotland and... What else?
Can see them gaining Eastbourne, and a few of the SW London seats from the Tories.
Simon Hughes is another gain.
Edit: Also, the home of the finest university in the country.
Do we really see them winning those? Against a static Tory party I might agree that there are SW gains but this is a Tory party that is surging.
I may be getting it all wrong but the biggie on these elections is the Lib Dem dog that doesn't seem to have barked.
It would seem from RobD's excellent spreadsheet that that the LIb Dems are still net losers. That wasn't supposed to happen was it? Where does this leave the idea that they were to improve dramatically at the GE?
It leaves it thus: the LibDems are a screaming sell at the current SpreadEx spread of 23-26.
Sell at 23? I'm considering emptying my position above 10!
I may be getting it all wrong but the biggie on these elections is the Lib Dem dog that doesn't seem to have barked.
It would seem from RobD's excellent spreadsheet that that the LIb Dems are still net losers. That wasn't supposed to happen was it? Where does this leave the idea that they were to improve dramatically at the GE?
It leaves it thus: the LibDems are a screaming sell at the current SpreadEx spread of 23-26.
Sell at 23? I'm considering emptying my position above 10!
Two gains in Scotland and... What else?
Cambridge. Maybe something down on the south coast? I think that may be offset by losses, though.
Eastbourne, Oxford W, Cambridge, Bath, Thornbury and Bristol W all look in play, possibly Lewes. It depends on whether yesterday's Tory dominance takes a knock over the next five weeks.
I may be getting it all wrong but the biggie on these elections is the Lib Dem dog that doesn't seem to have barked.
It would seem from RobD's excellent spreadsheet that that the LIb Dems are still net losers. That wasn't supposed to happen was it? Where does this leave the idea that they were to improve dramatically at the GE?
It leaves it thus: the LibDems are a screaming sell at the current SpreadEx spread of 23-26.
Sell at 23? I'm considering emptying my position above 10!
Two gains in Scotland and... What else?
Cambridge, Twickenham, Lewes, Kingston & Surbiton, possibly Bath, and maybe two or three others on top of that if they are having a good night. I still think that the polls are under-rating them by a few points, although it will be interesting to see if the projected national vote share gives any credence to that notion.
And local elections ≠ general elections, of course.
I may be getting it all wrong but the biggie on these elections is the Lib Dem dog that doesn't seem to have barked.
It would seem from RobD's excellent spreadsheet that that the LIb Dems are still net losers. That wasn't supposed to happen was it? Where does this leave the idea that they were to improve dramatically at the GE?
The seats that I was campaigning in at the weekend have gone yellow, including the one of the PPC for Bosworth. Leics has a very nice map online:
Thanks, Doc, I am glad you have had some personal successes. However, the fact remains that in terms of seats, at least, the Lib Dems seem, so far, to have gone backwards. Not quite the launch pad for the GE that some on here were predicting.
I think I had better get the bus up to the local town again tomorrow and see about getting a few quid on Lib Dems <11 seats at the GE.
The Midlands looks like it will be the Labour bloodbath I was expecting. And it will be worse at the GE. If you were going to devise a political figure designed specifically to repel Midlanders Corbyn would be it. If you didn't get it quite right you'd probably end up with Ed Miliband.
Actually, no - it's mixed. The Tories gained Derbyshire but I think have fallen short in Notts (though 11 seats still to declare), in some cases by large margins, and very nearly lost two in my former patch. They've lost in Coventry but may well win the overall West Mids results. They've piled up lots of votes in seats they already held, but seemingly failed to break through in depressed areas like Mansfield. It's a good Tory result but a reasonable Labour defence so far - but let's see the final results before concluding anything.
Health warning: Some Labour voters in areas where the party is still holding up at local level may not be so keen to vote for Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister.
In heory yes, but Southam was talking about these results. And FWIW I don't think the GE figures will be very different unless there are major new developments. As I said in an earlier post, in 11 hours I only met two voters who said they'd vote differently in the GE (naturally we asked). My impression is that people who dislike Corbyn enough to switch from Labour have now done so, and the current figures are correct. Which are, as I predicted and as we're now seeing, poor but not as bad as the polls have been suggesting.
I wonder if the polls have now been over-tweaked after the 2015 meltdown and now underestimate Labour turnout?
They polls suggest (especially after you take NI into account) that Labour will be slightly down but the Tories massively up. Today's results show Labour.slightly down but the Tories massively up. How does it differ from th e polls?
The Midlands looks like it will be the Labour bloodbath I was expecting. And it will be worse at the GE. If you were going to devise a political figure designed specifically to repel Midlanders Corbyn would be it. If you didn't get it quite right you'd probably end up with Ed Miliband.
Actually, no - it's mixed. The Tories gained Derbyshire but I think have fallen short in Notts (though 11 seats still to declare), in some cases by large margins, and very nearly lost two in my former patch. They've lost in Coventry but may well win the overall West Mids results. They've piled up lots of votes in seats they already held, but seemingly failed to break through in depressed areas like Mansfield. It's a good Tory result but a reasonable Labour defence so far - but let's see the final results before concluding anything.
Health warning: Some Labour voters in areas where the party is still holding up at local level may not be so keen to vote for Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister.
In heory yes, but Southam was talking about these results. And FWIW I don't think the GE figures will be very different unless there are major new developments. As I said in an earlier post, in 11 hours I only met two voters who said they'd vote differently in the GE (naturally we asked). My impression is that people who dislike Corbyn enough to switch from Labour have now done so, and the current figures are correct. Which are, as I predicted and as we're now seeing, poor but not as bad as the polls have been suggesting.
I wonder if the polls have now been over-tweaked after the 2015 meltdown and now underestimate Labour turnout?
I myself was wondering if the adjustment had been made in the other direction. A lot of the polls are now showing Labour in the range 28-30%. The notion that Labour might be doing as well as under Brown or even EdM in its present wretched state is difficult to take seriously - although, as always, one stands to be disproved by events.
@jessicaelgot: Conservative Andy Street just 1% ahead of Labour's Sion Simon. 2nd prefs hard to call - LDs & Ukip have just over 300 votes between them
UKIP preferences will go heavily to Street and LD preferences will be split so I think Street has done it just as there are more UKIP than Green preferences
UKIP wins first 2017 seat in former BNP heartland of Burnley. UKIP now tied with the Cornish nationalists for 8th largest party in England.
In other news, Labour down a net 258 seats so far. I'm not sure how much is still left to be declared, but Dr Fisher's prediction of a loss of 315 seats may not be too wide of the mark.
Where will the Kippers go when Mrs May uses her huge majority to support the EU concessions she is going to make to ensure a soft landing for Brexit in the national interest?
Will there be a resurgent UKIP party? It will be too late to do anything about the large Tory majority for the next five years.
I may be getting it all wrong but the biggie on these elections is the Lib Dem dog that doesn't seem to have barked.
It would seem from RobD's excellent spreadsheet that that the LIb Dems are still net losers. That wasn't supposed to happen was it? Where does this leave the idea that they were to improve dramatically at the GE?
It leaves it thus: the LibDems are a screaming sell at the current SpreadEx spread of 23-26.
Sell at 23? I'm considering emptying my position above 10!
Two gains in Scotland and... What else?
Can see them gaining Eastbourne, and a few of the SW London seats from the Tories.
Simon Hughes is another gain.
Edit: Also, the home of the finest university in the country.
Do we really see them winning those? Against a static Tory party I might agree that there are SW gains but this is a Tory party that is surging.
Comments
It would seem from RobD's excellent spreadsheet that that the LIb Dems are still net losers. That wasn't supposed to happen was it? Where does this leave the idea that they were to improve dramatically at the GE?
Fife fields have always been pretty Tory haven't they?
That said, you are right that it DOES matter, and the indicators so far are reasonably promising (though not electrifying) from those I've looked at.
https://www.leicestershire.gov.uk/about-the-council/how-the-council-works/elections/election-2017/447
Scotland #LE2017 Seats
SNP 88 (+4)
INDY 77 (-3)
CON 53 (+32)
LAB 51 (-33)
LD 4 (-1)
GRN 2 (+1)
10/32 Councils declared
"Never underestimate the Tories; never overestimate the Liberal Democrats"
unfortunate
Mike Wood @mikejwood 5m5 minutes ago
More
Amazing result in Dudley. Andy Street 31858; Lab 17731; UKIP 5638
Two gains in Scotland and... What else?
Don't ruin my fun.
It was literally crossover, he tipped it first as I was writing the thread header on it.
Simon Hughes is another gain.
Edit: Also, the home of the finest university in the universe
https://twitter.com/BenChapmanITV/status/860476166842568704
I wonder if the polls have now been over-tweaked after the 2015 meltdown and now underestimate Labour turnout?
Donkeys.
Or maybe it's the warning for a North Korean nuclear attack. Not sure.
Perth and Kinross final result: Con 17 seats, SNP 15, Lib Dem 4, Ind 3, Lab 1
And local elections ≠ general elections, of course.
I think I had better get the bus up to the local town again tomorrow and see about getting a few quid on Lib Dems <11 seats at the GE.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/860477591807037440
Tory source: "Looking good in West Midlands mayor. We'll be slightly ahead on 1st preferences. Not 100% though".
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
https://www.expressandstar.com/news/politics/2017/05/05/west-midlands-mayor-result---live-updates-as-region-chooses-its-new-leader/
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
https://mobile.twitter.com/neilelkes/status/860477135068286976
Cambridge
Bermondsey and Old Southwark?
Burnley?
From Con:
Twickenham
Eastbourne?
Richmond Park?
But they might also lose to Con:
Carshalton and Wallington
Southport
So they'd end up with something like 16 on a good day, 10-12 on a mediocre day, and conceivably could do even worse than that.
Else I get OGH or myself in trouble :-O
LOVE
SOLIHULL
https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/860479121406664705
Labour 8 (-3)
SNP 7
Con 2 (+1)
Ind 4 (+3)
LibDem 1 (-1=
Conservatives: 216,253 (42%)
Labour: 210,259 (41%)
Lib Dems: 30,378 (6%)
UKIP: 29,051 (6%)
Greens: 24,260 (5%)
You'll always be able to exchange them at a bank though.
Green -> Labour
Leaves a Tory lead of 10k with just 30k LD transfers up for grabs?
But Labour held on
Lab 46
Plaid 12
Con 4
Ind 3
LD 1
Cynon Valley Party 1
5 left to declare
@NCPoliticsUK
UKIP wins first 2017 seat in former BNP heartland of Burnley. UKIP now tied with the Cornish nationalists for 8th largest party in England.
In other news, Labour down a net 258 seats so far. I'm not sure how much is still left to be declared, but Dr Fisher's prediction of a loss of 315 seats may not be too wide of the mark.
Will there be a resurgent UKIP party? It will be too late to do anything about the large Tory majority for the next five years.