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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The poll finding that sums up GE2017 & why it’ll be a CON land

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  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,698
    edited May 2017
    Expect an avalanche of over excited Labour stories tomorrow morning then I guess. Unless its a good number of prosecutions, I cannot see it moving the polls. I mean, if it is a handful that is still disgraceful, but some may still be quite technical in nature despite alleged criminal intent, and it will confirm that in something like 325 seats there was effectively no issue. While charging, say, 15 would still mean a similar amount there was no issue, as a number it is harder to dismiss.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 1,070
    chrisb said:

    For what it's worth, these are the seat totals currently implied by the individual constituency markets:

    Con: 401
    Lab: 163
    LD: 15
    SNP: 48

    If I set an arbitrary upper limit based on odds shorter than 2/1 and a lower limit based on odds shorter than 1/2, I get this range:

    Con: 367-432
    Lab: 138-191
    LD: 7-30
    SNP: 41-53

    Those numbers won't be 100% correct because of the way I've scraped the data, but it shouldn't be too far off.

    I really like that analysis. Thnx.
  • isamisam Posts: 30,713
    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    Ok, I'll stop now.

    UKIP need candidates to stand in London.. .and I could do it!!! Get to meet the minx...

    D'oh they're not opposing Hoey :cry:
    Go for it, you'll have lots of fun seeing your name up at the count.

    On a serious point will they find the 5k for you ?
    I wouldn't want to be trying to sell UKIP in Vauxhall to be honest... would prob have more luck selling a Vauxhall to a kipper!

    I think candidates might be having to fund themselves

  • isamisam Posts: 30,713

    kle4 said:

    Ok, I'll stop now.

    Stop posting them perhaps - I suspect you have the feed open in another tab.
    I don't know what you're talking about.
    http://www.pictaram.com/user/dolly_theis/1470707003/1445136149785838367_1470707003
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,197
    Fat_Steve said:

    Regrettably I missed Theresa and Phillip on the One Show
    The Telegraph review is headed
    "Theresa and Philip May on The One Show: sweet, but screamingly dull"
    I imagine they'll be pleased with that.

    Isn't every episode of The One Show sweet, but screamingly dull?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 10,340
    kle4 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    CPS leaking like a sieve once more.

    I don't get that sort of culture - I'm privy to some sensitive information from time to time, not as much as them of course, but I take a lot of professional pride in not disclosing things even if I could.
    I agree with you and @RobD and @kle, it is a very odd way to carry on. Doesn't help the CPS in any way.
  • glwglw Posts: 6,035
    edited May 2017
    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    CPS leaking like a sieve once more.

    I don't get that sort of culture - I'm privy to some sensitive information from time to time, not as much as them of course, but I take a lot of professional pride in not disclosing things even if I could.
    They have an awfully chummy relationship with C4 news.
    How is what they are doing any different from the police officers who were tipping off the newspapers, and which led to prosecutions?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    chrisb said:

    For what it's worth, these are the seat totals currently implied by the individual constituency markets:

    Con: 401
    Lab: 163
    LD: 15
    SNP: 48

    If I set an arbitrary upper limit based on odds shorter than 2/1 and a lower limit based on odds shorter than 1/2, I get this range:

    Con: 367-432
    Lab: 138-191
    LD: 7-30
    SNP: 41-53

    Those numbers won't be 100% correct because of the way I've scraped the data, but it shouldn't be too far off.

    I really like that analysis. Thnx.
    Looks about right to me, which I suppose means that I don't see a lot of value.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 25,211
    kle4 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    CPS leaking like a sieve once more.

    I don't get that sort of culture - I'm privy to some sensitive information from time to time, not as much as them of course, but I take a lot of professional pride in not disclosing things even if I could.
    Indeed, they do seem to be somewhat lacking in professional ethics, constantly briefing journalists about decisions which have yet to be announced.
  • OUTOUT Posts: 569
    kle4 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    CPS leaking like a sieve once more.

    I don't get that sort of culture - I'm privy to some sensitive information from time to time, not as much as them of course, but I take a lot of professional pride in not disclosing things even if I could.
    Or perhaps he's just been told to attend a press conference tomorrow.
  • isamisam Posts: 30,713

    Fat_Steve said:

    Regrettably I missed Theresa and Phillip on the One Show
    The Telegraph review is headed
    "Theresa and Philip May on The One Show: sweet, but screamingly dull"
    I imagine they'll be pleased with that.

    Isn't every episode of The One Show sweet, but screamingly dull?
    The one when Gary Barlow came over all peculiar the other day was a bit unusual
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 32,001
    The promised vote on hunting will be another black mark against Hoey in Vauxhall.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,698
    Scott_P said:
    Pretty sweet photo of the Mays there.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,911
    isam said:


    I think candidates might be having to fund themselves

    Oof, not worth it then in my opinion. 1-100 you won't get that cash back anywhere except a few select constituencies in London (Daggers)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2017
    O/T

    Greetings from Trieste. Have any PBers been here recently? I don't have a clue what to do tomorrow so any tips would be much appreciated. (The only thing I do know is that when I asked for a glass of Martini in a local bar they practically poured about 25% of the bottle into a glass and charged 3 Euros for it).
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 1,795

    The promised vote on hunting will be another black mark against Hoey in Vauxhall.

    Does that mean the CON candidate will win there then?

    Who is that? :lol:
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,911

    The promised vote on hunting will be another black mark against Hoey in Vauxhall.

    The voters won't care. You'll see the full extent of the robot Labour vote there.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    Fat_Steve said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Ave_it said:

    Fat Steve/moderators - are we having a London pre election PB social event?

    If there is a meet up let's hope nobody gets banned over it this time! :open_mouth:

    And yes, I'm well thanks. :smiley:
    Good reminder Ave _ It - Thanks

    I'll have a think about Venues - DDs has been pretty poor the last couple of times, so I want somewhere central, accessible, and with reasonable volume (not thumping music) - and bookable without a big admin headache. I'll have a think. - But if anyone else has an idea and wants to contact Mike, I'd equally be happy for that to happen.
    Would it be good for the site to arrange a pre-election event in a pub in Westminster, and invite some of the political press/bloggers for a proper electoral discussion?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 34,563
    Ave_it said:

    The promised vote on hunting will be another black mark against Hoey in Vauxhall.

    Does that mean the CON candidate will win there then?

    Who is that? :lol:
    :smile:
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,192
    kle4 said:

    Expect an avalanche of over excited Labour stories tomorrow morning then I guess. Unless its a good number of prosecutions, I cannot see it moving the polls. I mean, if it is a handful that is still disgraceful, but some may still be quite technical in nature despite alleged criminal intent, and it will confirm that in something like 325 seats there was effectively no issue. While charging, say, 15 would still mean a similar amount there was no issue, as a number it is harder to dismiss.

    Lots about the IRA on Thursday then from the Tories I wonder?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 5,528
    Very good news for Con re CPS that announcement is tomorrow.

    If they announce prosecutions it's far better that the bad publicity is tomorrow and then has plenty of time to exaporate over the next few weeks.

    Manifesto launches next week will inevitably become the focus.

    And we don't know how long the media storm will be anyway, given the sub judice rules.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 4,131
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Sounds like it is all in one go.

    Prepare for a prosecution for Thanet. :p
    I'm a little surprised that they're going for it, if this is correct. The CPS had better be very sure of their stuff.

    If there are any charges to be brought then I don't think it will be a catastrophe for the Tories (May herself is not, insofar as I am aware, in any way implicated.) But it will be highly embarrassing, of course. On the plus side, it gets the feeding frenzy out of the way before either the manifesto launch or the big TV set-pieces.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Pulpstar said:

    The promised vote on hunting will be another black mark against Hoey in Vauxhall.

    The voters won't care. You'll see the full extent of the robot Labour vote there.
    That's one place where I think there might be a LD surge, but not enough to unseat her.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited May 2017

    Pong said:

    I've been wondering about the possibility of a radically centrist manifesto ever since the launch date was pushed back until after the candidate registration deadline.

    UKIP seem to have pulled their candidates in a lot of seats.

    A clever game of poker, if so.

    Some shire tories could well be in for one helluva shock - with no ukip on their ballot paper.

    I don't think it's going to happen in reality, though. It's highly likely the manifesto will be a fairly predictable mishmash - with only a few low-cost commitments.

    But there is the potential...
    I seem to recall that The Spectator dubbed May "the most left-wing Tory PM in 40 years," or words to that effect. She's certainly old enough to have been involved in Conservative activism before Margaret Thatcher became leader.

    If the manifesto transpired to advocate a 21st Century relaunch of one-nation Toryism, then this would not be especially surprising.
    Thing is, the centre isn't low tax.

    It's not triple lock - or at least not for everyone.

    It's not buy-to-let, high house prices and NIMBY. It's probably not even pro-greenbelt.

    It's not small state.

    It's not a lot of things that traditional tories consider fundamental conservative values.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Scott_P said:
    "Separating the elderly is inhumane, says judge"

    Great juxtaposition.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 33,856
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Sounds like it is all in one go.

    Prepare for a prosecution for Thanet. :p
    "We need a statement, not a manifesto!"
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    dr_spyn said:

    CPS leaking like a sieve once more.

    What's it leaked? That there'll be an announcement tomorrow is not a leak. Have they said who, if anyone, will be charged?
  • Peston's story.

    http://www.itv.com/news/2017-05-09/cps-announces-on-wednesday-whether-to-prosecute-tories-over-election-spending-breaches/

    Just time for new candidates, if required, before nominations close on Thursday.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,911
    Danny565 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The promised vote on hunting will be another black mark against Hoey in Vauxhall.

    The voters won't care. You'll see the full extent of the robot Labour vote there.
    That's one place where I think there might be a LD surge, but not enough to unseat her.
    Demographically not middle class enough I think.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 44,318

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Sounds like it is all in one go.

    Prepare for a prosecution for Thanet. :p
    I'm a little surprised that they're going for it, if this is correct. The CPS had better be very sure of their stuff.

    If there are any charges to be brought then I don't think it will be a catastrophe for the Tories (May herself is not, insofar as I am aware, in any way implicated.) But it will be highly embarrassing, of course. On the plus side, it gets the feeding frenzy out of the way before either the manifesto launch or the big TV set-pieces.
    Oh, I should mention my "prepare for a prosecution" statement was based on no insider info whatsoever. I mentioned it given the weight of evidence that has appeared on Guido etc.
  • bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    Torygraph looks like it might have the story that sets this election alight - but Twitter pic too lo-res to read properly on my phone. Can't get up as cat fast asleep on my leg.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 2,832
    Pulpstar said:

    The promised vote on hunting will be another black mark against Hoey in Vauxhall.

    The voters won't care. You'll see the full extent of the robot Labour vote there.
    Agreed. The odds in Vauxhall are crazy.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 44,318

    Peston's story.

    http://www.itv.com/news/2017-05-09/cps-announces-on-wednesday-whether-to-prosecute-tories-over-election-spending-breaches/

    Just time for new candidates, if required, before nominations close on Thursday.

    "Presumably a version of "that was the previous regime, we do things differently"."

    Except if May's chief of staff is implicated....
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    I'd guess that 95% of the public have bugger all idea about the CPS Tory story. C4 News is watched by how many people?

    The public, as a general rule, think poorly of politicians and political parties.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,698

    dr_spyn said:

    CPS leaking like a sieve once more.

    What's it leaked? That there'll be an announcement tomorrow is not a leak. Have they said who, if anyone, will be charged?
    Point taken, but why do they need to brief tonight to journalists that they'll be a statement tomorrow at all?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 13,542
    Scott_P said:
    Is it just me or does that sound like "No Prosecutions" to anyone else?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,911
    Quincel said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The promised vote on hunting will be another black mark against Hoey in Vauxhall.

    The voters won't care. You'll see the full extent of the robot Labour vote there.
    Agreed. The odds in Vauxhall are crazy.
    Yeah 4-9 Lab is huge.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited May 2017
    Ave_it said:

    The promised vote on hunting will be another black mark against Hoey in Vauxhall.

    Does that mean the CON candidate will win there then?

    Who is that? :lol:
    Hope Disco Dolly takes some Leave votes from Hoey, enough to tip it our way.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    RobD said:

    Peston's story.

    http://www.itv.com/news/2017-05-09/cps-announces-on-wednesday-whether-to-prosecute-tories-over-election-spending-breaches/

    Just time for new candidates, if required, before nominations close on Thursday.

    "Presumably a version of "that was the previous regime, we do things differently"."

    Except if May's chief of staff is implicated....
    Yes, that's the only way I can see this becoming a big deal - if May's own close aide is implicated, questioning May's "squeaky-clean" image with the public.

    If it's all just about no-mark MPs or their even more no-mark agents, then I don't think people will care.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 44,318
    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:
    Is it just me or does that sound like "No Prosecutions" to anyone else?
    The Guido story mentions the overspend in Thanet was huge.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,698
    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:
    Is it just me or does that sound like "No Prosecutions" to anyone else?
    Not if this is right, in fact it sounds the opposite.

    Peston's story.

    http://www.itv.com/news/2017-05-09/cps-announces-on-wednesday-whether-to-prosecute-tories-over-election-spending-breaches/

    Just time for new candidates, if required, before nominations close on Thursday.

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Pulpstar said:

    Danny565 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The promised vote on hunting will be another black mark against Hoey in Vauxhall.

    The voters won't care. You'll see the full extent of the robot Labour vote there.
    That's one place where I think there might be a LD surge, but not enough to unseat her.
    Demographically not middle class enough I think.
    How different to Bermondsey?
  • RepublicanToryRepublicanTory Posts: 563
    edited May 2017


    Thank you
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 4,131
    bobajobPB said:

    Torygraph looks like it might have the story that sets this election alight - but Twitter pic too lo-res to read properly on my phone. Can't get up as cat fast asleep on my leg.

    I presume you're talking about this?


    Exclusive: 100 moderate Labour MPs to form breakaway group if Jeremy Corbyn stays on after a Tory landslide

    Labour faces a historic split after the election with as many as 100 of the party's MPs set to walk out and form their own breakaway group in an attempt to force out Jeremy Corbyn, The Daily Telegraph can disclose.

    Moderate Labour candidates are already in talks with potential donors about a new “Progressives” group forming in Parliament if Mr Corbyn stays on as leader after a Tory landslide.

    One potential scenario is for the MPs to resign the Labour whip and become independents grouped together in the Commons under the Progressives banner.

    They could then rejoin the Parliamentary Labour Party once Mr Corbyn had been replaced with a leader they supported.

    Dan Jarvis, Yvette Cooper and Sir Keir Starmer could be asked to lead the group, although there is no suggestion they have been approached or been involved in the talks.


    That's your lot, the rest is behind the paywall.


  • His remarks on the military situation meanwhile are simply laughable. France has a wholly different outlook as it is considered even following its decision to resume a part in NATO's military command as a half-hearted ally by the Americans, while it is through NATO that Britain actually uses its forces. On paper, these are smaller than the French equivalent, but they have a much greater reach - for example, France has five medium sized jets of various types for long distance haulage, one of which is a tanker, while Britain has eight Globemaster. The disparity is so great that when the French intervened in Mali a while back we actually had to lend them two C17s to do the transport work!

    So I think this was a poor article from a biased source by someone so shocked and embittered by his failure that he's refusing to confront the reasons for it and is instead constructing a comforting narrative of how it was those bloody elites that stole it all. It reminds me very much of the letters of Lord Robert Cecil, Cecil of Chelwood, as the League of Nations showed how utterly ineffectual it had become by the late 1930s.



    That was a refreshingly insightful and well informed critique

    This is one of the reasons why PB keeps me coming back-regardless of whether you agree or disagree with the above it is clear, precise and thought provoking.

    Thank you

  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 11,555
    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    Greetings from Trieste. Have any PBers been here recently? I don't have a clue what to do tomorrow so any tips would be much appreciated. (The only thing I do know is that when I asked for a glass of Martini in a local bar they practically poured about 25% of the bottle into a glass and charged 3 Euros for it).

    Sounds like a good place for a meet up!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,911

    Pulpstar said:

    Danny565 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The promised vote on hunting will be another black mark against Hoey in Vauxhall.

    The voters won't care. You'll see the full extent of the robot Labour vote there.
    That's one place where I think there might be a LD surge, but not enough to unseat her.
    Demographically not middle class enough I think.
    How different to Bermondsey?
    No idea but a 4.x swing is well doable. A 29.15% swing is for the birds.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 29,102
    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:
    Is it just me or does that sound like "No Prosecutions" to anyone else?
    It sounds to me that the CPS have realised that they would be subject to a lot of criticism if they announced their decision after the deadline for nominations had passed.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 29,743

    bobajobPB said:

    Torygraph looks like it might have the story that sets this election alight - but Twitter pic too lo-res to read properly on my phone. Can't get up as cat fast asleep on my leg.

    I presume you're talking about this?


    Exclusive: 100 moderate Labour MPs to form breakaway group if Jeremy Corbyn stays on after a Tory landslide

    Labour faces a historic split after the election with as many as 100 of the party's MPs set to walk out and form their own breakaway group in an attempt to force out Jeremy Corbyn, The Daily Telegraph can disclose.

    Moderate Labour candidates are already in talks with potential donors about a new “Progressives” group forming in Parliament if Mr Corbyn stays on as leader after a Tory landslide.

    One potential scenario is for the MPs to resign the Labour whip and become independents grouped together in the Commons under the Progressives banner.

    They could then rejoin the Parliamentary Labour Party once Mr Corbyn had been replaced with a leader they supported.

    Dan Jarvis, Yvette Cooper and Sir Keir Starmer could be asked to lead the group, although there is no suggestion they have been approached or been involved in the talks.


    That's your lot, the rest is behind the paywall.
    100 moderate Labour MPs left after 8th June? They are optimistic aren't they?

    And while their frustration at the stupidity of Corbyn and his cohorts is understandable is it not more than a bit dishonest to get re-elected for a party and then immediately leave it?
  • isam said:

    When I ask about her dealings with the current MP, Labour’s Jack Dromey, there is a pause followed by a long sigh. “I don’t feel like I have much of a choice. Most people around here won’t vote. I would like to vote Labour but things aren’t changing so I feel like I can’t.”

    Through Elliott’s eyes, Erdington is increasingly segregated with stark ethnic divides. We walk on to Slade Road, which lies to the south of Erdington in Stockland Green, and on a notepad Elliott divides it into sections where people of different ethnicities live side by side but do not, she says, mix. It is a “tinder box” waiting to be lit, she claims, with tensions between the Polish, Muslim and African-Caribbean communities.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/09/erdington-general-election-id-like-to-vote-labour-but-things-arent-changing

    Sounds a lot like Scotland where Labour took their vote for granted...and of course Jezza was all speaker corner ranting this morning about the bankers, the rich, the rigged system, but not a single word on immigration (which is a huge issue to many in Labour traditional seats).

    "sections where people of different ethnicities live side by side but do not, she says, mix. It is a “tinder box” waiting to be lit, she claims, with tensions between the Polish, Muslim and African-Caribbean communities."

    Who would have thought mass immigration would lead to that?
    Dromey says he's proud of it...
    I wonder how much time Dromey spends in his constituency.
    Is Mr Harman in trouble ??
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    dr_spyn said:

    CPS leaking like a sieve once more.

    What's it leaked? That there'll be an announcement tomorrow is not a leak. Have they said who, if anyone, will be charged?
    Its creating a profile for the CPS. They should keep their traps shut, and no public announcements to camera EVER.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    kle4 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    CPS leaking like a sieve once more.

    What's it leaked? That there'll be an announcement tomorrow is not a leak. Have they said who, if anyone, will be charged?
    Point taken, but why do they need to brief tonight to journalists that they'll be a statement tomorrow at all?
    I don't know. So the journalists will know when to report it? Because someone asked? When I was Fleet Street-adjacent decades ago, there'd be long lists of scheduled announcements, but this might not be one. Surely what is new here is twitter. In the past, Peston would have reported the news, not tweeted in advance that the news will be happening tomorrow.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Fat_Steve said:

    isam said:

    Ugh, she really is a pound shop Ed Miliband

    If Ed had listened to Glasman, things could have been v different
    I agree. Maurice Glasman was very interesting. I was interested that Ed M brought him in to the picture. He should have listened to him - things would, as you say, have been v different.

    That's the pity of Ed Millband - He had enough credibility, at the beginning, to make the Labour party listen to criticism and see the need to evolve, if he had wanted to. He must have had some instincts in that direction to involve Glasman at all. But somehow, in the end, he didn't have have the insight or imagination to leave his own comfort zone.
    Well, Ed lost Alan Johnson as his first pick for shadow Chancellor, his brother was in a huff about losing to him, and so he had to turn to Ed Balls...

    So imagine my surprise when I see Yvette Cooper touted on here as Labour's saviour. Oh dear.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,911

    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:
    Is it just me or does that sound like "No Prosecutions" to anyone else?
    It sounds to me that the CPS have realised that they would be subject to a lot of criticism if they announced their decision after the deadline for nominations had passed.
    They've screwed it all up royally I think.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    Ave_it said:

    The promised vote on hunting will be another black mark against Hoey in Vauxhall.

    Does that mean the CON candidate will win there then?

    Who is that? :lol:
    :smile:
    I said hello, Dolly,
    Well, hello, Dolly
    It's so nice to have you back where you belong
    You're lookin' swell, Dolly
    I can tell, Dolly
    You're still glowin'
    You're still crowin'
    You're still goin' strong
    I feel that room swayin'
    While the band's playin'
    One of your old favourite songs from way back when
    So take her wrap, fellas
    Find her an empty lap, fellas
    Dolly'll never go away again
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    dr_spyn said:

    CPS leaking like a sieve once more.

    What's it leaked? That there'll be an announcement tomorrow is not a leak. Have they said who, if anyone, will be charged?
    Its creating a profile for the CPS. They should keep their traps shut, and no public announcements to camera EVER.
    Secret justice? Is that really what we want?
  • DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106

    Ok, I'll stop now.

    She has no chance in Vauxhall. She'll lose her deposit.
    (And you might have lost yours as well! :blush: )
  • RobDRobD Posts: 44,318

    dr_spyn said:

    CPS leaking like a sieve once more.

    What's it leaked? That there'll be an announcement tomorrow is not a leak. Have they said who, if anyone, will be charged?
    Its creating a profile for the CPS. They should keep their traps shut, and no public announcements to camera EVER.
    Secret justice? Is that really what we want?
    No comments until the decision I think.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 30,280
    Pulpstar said:

    I think labour will hold Vauxhall very comfortably.

    It'll be a good reminder of how unimportant specific candidates are in general.

    They just need to hold it by a single vote, given my impetuous laying of the LibDems at 10-1.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 10,344

    bobajobPB said:

    Torygraph looks like it might have the story that sets this election alight - but Twitter pic too lo-res to read properly on my phone. Can't get up as cat fast asleep on my leg.

    I presume you're talking about this?


    Exclusive: 100 moderate Labour MPs to form breakaway group if Jeremy Corbyn stays on after a Tory landslide

    Labour faces a historic split after the election with as many as 100 of the party's MPs set to walk out and form their own breakaway group in an attempt to force out Jeremy Corbyn, The Daily Telegraph can disclose.

    Moderate Labour candidates are already in talks with potential donors about a new “Progressives” group forming in Parliament if Mr Corbyn stays on as leader after a Tory landslide.

    One potential scenario is for the MPs to resign the Labour whip and become independents grouped together in the Commons under the Progressives banner.

    They could then rejoin the Parliamentary Labour Party once Mr Corbyn had been replaced with a leader they supported.

    Dan Jarvis, Yvette Cooper and Sir Keir Starmer could be asked to lead the group, although there is no suggestion they have been approached or been involved in the talks.


    That's your lot, the rest is behind the paywall.
    Always f***** tomorrow though, isn't it?
  • bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    Black Rook

    Many thanks - much appreciated. I'd love to read the rest of the story.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    dr_spyn said:

    CPS leaking like a sieve once more.

    What's it leaked? That there'll be an announcement tomorrow is not a leak. Have they said who, if anyone, will be charged?
    Its creating a profile for the CPS. They should keep their traps shut, and no public announcements to camera EVER.
    Secret justice? Is that really what we want?
    We had all that shit with Keir Starmer creating his own profile. I detest that sort of thing. We don't want to go American. They can put out an announcement to the media WITHOUT personalising it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,698
    isam said:
    I wonder, if he hangs on and the LDs can indeed improve in this election to rise again, if the 'LD Survivors' will enter party legend one day. Once there was a time when the party was reduced to a mere taxicab of MPs, and then the Tory surge of May the Terrible rose and everyone said it was the end...but the LD survivors stayed form, they withstood the tide, and now, under PM Tim Farron Jnr, we now rule these lands.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,698

    dr_spyn said:

    CPS leaking like a sieve once more.

    What's it leaked? That there'll be an announcement tomorrow is not a leak. Have they said who, if anyone, will be charged?
    Its creating a profile for the CPS. They should keep their traps shut, and no public announcements to camera EVER.
    Secret justice? Is that really what we want?
    How is it secret justice?
  • GIN1138 said:

    Looks like fox hunting is on it's way back then?

    No
    It will be a fee vote and many Cons are anti foxhunting
    +
    If the Cons get a landslide then they will be a much more Urban party than they are now.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 14,174

    Who wants to make foxes a protected species?

    And who wants to make them extinct in the UK?

    Those are basically the options if we properly ban hunting. Foxes are a major pest to free range poultry farmers; they are allowed to, and will, kill them brutally to protect their birds. If they're not 'cultivated' for hunting they will soon die out.
    .

    This is all nonsense. Hunting accounted for (and to the extent the law is evaded still accounts for) only a small percentage of fox deaths. It's a sport, not a serious means of fox contol.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 1,070

    bobajobPB said:

    Torygraph looks like it might have the story that sets this election alight - but Twitter pic too lo-res to read properly on my phone. Can't get up as cat fast asleep on my leg.

    I presume you're talking about this?


    Exclusive: 100 moderate Labour MPs to form breakaway group if Jeremy Corbyn stays on after a Tory landslide

    Labour faces a historic split after the election with as many as 100 of the party's MPs set to walk out and form their own breakaway group in an attempt to force out Jeremy Corbyn, The Daily Telegraph can disclose.

    Moderate Labour candidates are already in talks with potential donors about a new “Progressives” group forming in Parliament if Mr Corbyn stays on as leader after a Tory landslide.

    One potential scenario is for the MPs to resign the Labour whip and become independents grouped together in the Commons under the Progressives banner.

    They could then rejoin the Parliamentary Labour Party once Mr Corbyn had been replaced with a leader they supported.

    Dan Jarvis, Yvette Cooper and Sir Keir Starmer could be asked to lead the group, although there is no suggestion they have been approached or been involved in the talks.


    That's your lot, the rest is behind the paywall.
    So would rump labour have to elect a leader from its own ranks before cooper and sharmer rejoined? If so doesnt that rule them out of next permanent Labour leader contention in this scenario?
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 2,832
    Pulpstar said:

    Quincel said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The promised vote on hunting will be another black mark against Hoey in Vauxhall.

    The voters won't care. You'll see the full extent of the robot Labour vote there.
    Agreed. The odds in Vauxhall are crazy.
    Yeah 4-9 Lab is huge.
    It would be long if it was the LDs who were 2nd on 20%, but 4th? As it happens I can vaguely see the Tories winning it if the LDs split Labour's vote - but doubtful. 16/1 though isn't a crazy covering bet (albeit not one I'm going for).
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 25,211
    RobD said:

    dr_spyn said:

    CPS leaking like a sieve once more.

    What's it leaked? That there'll be an announcement tomorrow is not a leak. Have they said who, if anyone, will be charged?
    Its creating a profile for the CPS. They should keep their traps shut, and no public announcements to camera EVER.
    Secret justice? Is that really what we want?
    No comments until the decision I think.
    A simple press release with the decision, and a reminder to journalists of the sub judice laws if anyone is charged. Simple.

    As it is, they are perilously close to denying a fair trial with all the leaking going on.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 30,280
    isam said:
    My Con + UKIP * 66% Vs LDs + 3pp has him losing by about 6pp.

    His only hope is if Remain-y Labour voters go tactical, while Leavers stay at home. I'd want 4-1 to back him.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 7,655

    dr_spyn said:

    CPS leaking like a sieve once more.

    What's it leaked? That there'll be an announcement tomorrow is not a leak. Have they said who, if anyone, will be charged?
    Its creating a profile for the CPS. They should keep their traps shut, and no public announcements to camera EVER.
    Secret justice? Is that really what we want?
    Don't be silly. The bringing of charges is a matter of public record and can never be secret, and should be the subject of a factual press release. Anything above and beyond that serves no other purpose than to increase the importance of the CPS in its own eyes, and prejudice potential jurors. The posturing of that twat Starmer in the Huhne affair was particularly repulsive, and designed to get him personal airtime for political gain.
  • NikNakNikNak Posts: 3
    Adrian Trett
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,197
    DavidL said:

    100 moderate Labour MPs left after 8th June? They are optimistic aren't they?

    And while their frustration at the stupidity of Corbyn and his cohorts is understandable is it not more than a bit dishonest to get re-elected for a party and then immediately leave it?

    Every Labour candidate to be asked "If I vote or you, can you confirm you will not leave the Labour Party?" Lots of candidates shoe-gazing at hustings....
  • bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    DavidL said:

    bobajobPB said:

    Torygraph looks like it might have the story that sets this election alight - but Twitter pic too lo-res to read properly on my phone. Can't get up as cat fast asleep on my leg.

    I presume you're talking about this?


    Exclusive: 100 moderate Labour MPs to form breakaway group if Jeremy Corbyn stays on after a Tory landslide

    Labour faces a historic split after the election with as many as 100 of the party's MPs set to walk out and form their own breakaway group in an attempt to force out Jeremy Corbyn, The Daily Telegraph can disclose.

    Moderate Labour candidates are already in talks with potential donors about a new “Progressives” group forming in Parliament if Mr Corbyn stays on as leader after a Tory landslide.

    One potential scenario is for the MPs to resign the Labour whip and become independents grouped together in the Commons under the Progressives banner.

    They could then rejoin the Parliamentary Labour Party once Mr Corbyn had been replaced with a leader they supported.

    Dan Jarvis, Yvette Cooper and Sir Keir Starmer could be asked to lead the group, although there is no suggestion they have been approached or been involved in the talks.


    That's your lot, the rest is behind the paywall.
    100 moderate Labour MPs left after 8th June? They are optimistic aren't they?

    And while their frustration at the stupidity of Corbyn and his cohorts is understandable is it not more than a bit dishonest to get re-elected for a party and then immediately leave it?
    No. Voters electing anti Corbyn moderates know for whom they are voting. I expect this story to gather pace at 1600hrs on Thursday when nominations close and rebel Labour candidates are locked in.
  • NikNakNikNak Posts: 3
    is his real name. His first half of his double barrelled name is his husband's
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,698
    NikNak said:

    is his real name. His first half of his double barrelled name is his husband's

    Good to know - it makes for a striking name.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 44,318
    Welcome @NikNak.
  • bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    Mortimer said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    Greetings from Trieste. Have any PBers been here recently? I don't have a clue what to do tomorrow so any tips would be much appreciated. (The only thing I do know is that when I asked for a glass of Martini in a local bar they practically poured about 25% of the bottle into a glass and charged 3 Euros for it).

    Sounds like a good place for a meet up!
    Does anyone still drink vermouth on its own?
  • NikNakNikNak Posts: 3
    I was canvassing in Tom Brake's constituency. On the big housing estates that did vote his way, they are 75% Brexit in referendum. So, it is wide open.
  • Scott_P said:
    I doubt she will have much trouble GOTV
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,911
    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:
    My Con + UKIP * 66% Vs LDs + 3pp has him losing by about 6pp.

    His only hope is if Remain-y Labour voters go tactical, while Leavers stay at home. I'd want 4-1 to back him.
    I hope you're topping up in Vauxhall on Hoey at 4-9.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 7,655

    Who wants to make foxes a protected species?

    And who wants to make them extinct in the UK?

    Those are basically the options if we properly ban hunting. Foxes are a major pest to free range poultry farmers; they are allowed to, and will, kill them brutally to protect their birds. If they're not 'cultivated' for hunting they will soon die out.
    .

    This is all nonsense. Hunting accounted for (and to the extent the law is evaded still accounts for) only a small percentage of fox deaths. It's a sport, not a serious means of fox contol.
    That is simply not true. It is (or rather was) both.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,911
    The other thing about Vauxhall is that every Lib Dem campaigner near that area ought to be working Bermondsey.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 1,070
    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:
    My Con + UKIP * 66% Vs LDs + 3pp has him losing by about 6pp.

    His only hope is if Remain-y Labour voters go tactical, while Leavers stay at home. I'd want 4-1 to back him.
    I hope you're topping up in Vauxhall on Hoey at 4-9.
    No. But I just got on at 8/13!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 42,476
    Scott_P said:
    Never a dull day with the Trump administration.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Who wants to make foxes a protected species?

    And who wants to make them extinct in the UK?

    Those are basically the options if we properly ban hunting. Foxes are a major pest to free range poultry farmers; they are allowed to, and will, kill them brutally to protect their birds. If they're not 'cultivated' for hunting they will soon die out.
    .

    This is all nonsense. Hunting accounted for (and to the extent the law is evaded still accounts for) only a small percentage of fox deaths. It's a sport, not a serious means of fox contol.
    Are you still paid by anti-hunting groups?
    You should declare an interest here.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 42,476
    Ex-MP Simon Danczuk faces police rape quiz after woman told police he attacked her in Westminster

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4489934/Ex-MP-Simon-Danczuk-faces-police-rape-quiz.html
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,911

    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:
    My Con + UKIP * 66% Vs LDs + 3pp has him losing by about 6pp.

    His only hope is if Remain-y Labour voters go tactical, while Leavers stay at home. I'd want 4-1 to back him.
    I hope you're topping up in Vauxhall on Hoey at 4-9.
    No. But I just got on at 8/13!
    Who with ?
  • I think we should introduce a fining system for every time you write a sentence with "May" and "pound shop" in it.

    It can't be long until we get stories trailing a potential 'government of all the talents' to work together to get the best Brexit deal. Liam Fox out, Peter Mandelson in.
    NO
    NO
    NO
    and again
    NO
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Floater said:
    Indeed, although I’m not convinced we’ll see it happen, too many remember the last split.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 10,215
    Trump fires FBI's Comey
This discussion has been closed.