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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Emily Thornberry lures Sir Michael Fallon into possibly the gr

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited May 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Emily Thornberry lures Sir Michael Fallon into possibly the greatest ambush since the battle of Lake Trasimene

Sofa chat with Michael Fallon and @EmilyThornberry #marr pic.twitter.com/7Ji3UJz156

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,993
    calum said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Surprisingly (to me) strong figs for Jezza in East Ren. Blair M. should maybe be a bit nicer about his leader!

    SNP hold by 500 votes using my Scottish yougov switcher model.

    I'd be wary about piling onto the Tories at short odds in Scotland to be perfectly fair (Save BRS and DCT).

    The majorities to overcome are still enormous.
    What's your model predicting for Stirling ?
    SNP hold by around 3k.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Not first!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,595
    First after a recount by Diane Abbott.

    Why didn't he pick her up on her oft-repeated lie about being an honorary army officer? She leaves not so much an open goal as a carefully set-up own try on that one.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,908
    I feel like the aftermath of Lake Trasimene was just a little more destructive.

    Though it seems Fallon is a better attack dog in one on one situations than with an opponent in the room.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    ydoethur said:

    First after a recount by Diane Abbott.

    Why didn't he pick her up on her oft-repeated lie about being an honorary army officer? She leaves not so much an open goal as a carefully set-up own try on that one.

    Fallon as a Defence Secretary leaves much to be desired. If I was a soldier I wouldn't want to serve in the army while he was in charge.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 9,914
    I'm sure getting in to this 'who has who met with' battle is a very strong one for the current Labour leadership - they have some top trumps in their cards...
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    edited May 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    calum said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Surprisingly (to me) strong figs for Jezza in East Ren. Blair M. should maybe be a bit nicer about his leader!

    SNP hold by 500 votes using my Scottish yougov switcher model.

    I'd be wary about piling onto the Tories at short odds in Scotland to be perfectly fair (Save BRS and DCT).

    The majorities to overcome are still enormous.
    What's your model predicting for Stirling ?
    SNP hold by around 3k.
    Cheers - Baxter is SNP hold by 400ish - FWIW I think your model's result is more in line with the local vibe !
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 5,514
    Good insight. I think Thornberry was appallingly traduced over that flag thing - mainly by people who'd never stomach being in the vicinity of, let alone living next door to, football oiks. As for Fallon, Labour haven't had a bad few days. It still won't happen, but the Tories are doing everything possible to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Too complacent perhaps?
  • CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    edited May 2017
    Y0kel said:

    Cyan said:

    Y0kel said:

    Anyone who seriously believes Corbyn's backing (and it is backing) for the Provos can be palmed off needs their head examined.

    Corbyn "backed" them, but SIS only "colluded" with them?
    You know nothing about how counter insurgency works.

    For a start SIS role in agent running within the Provos was peripheral. Go check your names for the security services. Might help you.
    Trolled you there, Y0kel! I thought you'd bite :)

    Tell me - if Corbyn was helping out (and it wouldn't have been the FRU he reported to, in Islington) would you be in the loop? Bear a number of possibilities in mind. If you know something, that doesn't mean another person knows nothing, nor that you know it all.

    PS I probably first read Kitson when you were in short trousers.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    I think Thornberry is quite a good spokesperson. She's quite good (by Labour standards) at defending the line in interviews and getting the basic numbers right sounding like she knows what she's talking about.

    She'd be awful as the actual leader though, at least if Labour wants to hold working-class Northern and Midlands seats at some point in the future.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,612
    TSE's hyperbole aside, I seriously don't think the public will equate Fallon meeting with Assad 10 years ago in an offical capacity as quite the same as an MP showing tacit support for the IRA. It's not far off from the 'Queen shaking Martin McGuinness's hand' for Corbyn's apologists.

    I cannot believe people are now touting Thornberry as a potential leader. It's getting increasingly ridiculous.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 18,230
    On topic, I'll never get tired of this.

  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    The lady Nugee doth protest too much.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,908
    edited May 2017
    Danny565 said:

    I think Thornberry is quite a good spokesperson. She's quite good (by Labour standards) at defending the line in interviews and getting the basic numbers right sounding like she knows what she's talking about.

    She'd be awful as the actual leader though, at least if Labour wants to hold working-class Northern and Midlands seats at some point in the future.

    It'd be interesting to find out, since as you say she has definite good qualities, even if she has had some major mess ups.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
  • Jason said:

    TSE's hyperbole aside, I seriously don't think the public will equate Fallon meeting with Assad 10 years ago in an offical capacity as quite the same as an MP showing tacit support for the IRA. It's not far off from the 'Queen shaking Martin McGuinness's hand' for Corbyn's apologists.

    I cannot believe people are now touting Thornberry as a potential leader. It's getting increasingly ridiculous.

    To coin a phrase, "In the land of the blind, the one eyed person is King." Kier Stammer is the best of a bad bunch. Dan Jarvis will connect with the WWC.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited May 2017


    @MrTCHarris: This represents an SNP > Conservative swing of 12% twitter.com/scotelects/sta…
  • isamisam Posts: 30,800
    edited May 2017

    I'm sure getting in to this 'who has who met with' battle is a very strong one for the current Labour leadership - they have some top trumps in their cards...

    image
  • If JC is so interested in peace, can someone explain why he only ever meets one side?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,908
    Scott_P said:



    @MrTCHarris: This represents an SNP > Conservative swing of 12% twitter.com/scotelects/sta…
    I exclusively take my scotland information from subsamples, so no dice.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 33,400
    This is just another example of how utterly mediocre the Tories are. Fallon is undoubtedly one of the government's better performers, too.

    Thornberry was defending the indefensible.
  • This is just another example of how utterly mediocre the Tories are. Fallon is undoubtedly one of the government's better performers, too.

    Thornberry was defending the indefensible.

    General state of politics. The labour shadow cabinet are worse than mediocre Tories.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited May 2017
    That said, I don't really think Tories mingling with Assad will be that damaging to them. The thing is that people view both Assad and Putin as bastards, but bastards who aren't out particularly to harm us - and so they're the lesser evil in the current world, as compared to jihadist nutters who really are out to destroy us.

    And that's where Corbyn's real vulnerability is, his calling Hamas "friends" and generally giving the impression he'd want to naively "negotiate" with ISIS, mixed together with wanting to scrap Trident, which altogether does make people scared (frankly, even as someone campaigning for Labour, it makes even me a bit scared; my hope/assumption is that, in the incredibly unlikely event of Corbyn winning, he would just focus on domestic matters while the grown-ups in Labour would take charge of all defence/foreign issues).
  • Jason said:

    TSE's hyperbole aside, I seriously don't think the public will equate Fallon meeting with Assad 10 years ago in an offical capacity as quite the same as an MP showing tacit support for the IRA. It's not far off from the 'Queen shaking Martin McGuinness's hand' for Corbyn's apologists.

    What official capacity was he acting in in 2007? And what was the nature of the high level talks he was having?

    He was an opposition MP going on a jolly and downing a few nice drinks at Assad's expense, simple as that.

    Not to defend Corbyn's relations with the IRA, but Thornberry made Fallon look like a bit of a tit there.

  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:



    @MrTCHarris: This represents an SNP > Conservative swing of 12% twitter.com/scotelects/sta…
    I exclusively take my scotland information from subsamples, so no dice.
    Plus the fieldwork ended on May 1st so is 2 weeks out of date .
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:



    @MrTCHarris: This represents an SNP > Conservative swing of 12% twitter.com/scotelects/sta…
    I exclusively take my scotland information from subsamples, so no dice.
    This chap blends polls & sub-samples:

    http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2017/05/subsample-average-fails-to-find-any.html
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,908

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:



    @MrTCHarris: This represents an SNP > Conservative swing of 12% twitter.com/scotelects/sta…
    I exclusively take my scotland information from subsamples, so no dice.
    Plus the fieldwork ended on May 1st so is 2 weeks out of date .
    Well with the state of SCON surging, there must be cross over with the SNP then!
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Scott_P said:



    @MrTCHarris: This represents an SNP > Conservative swing of 12% twitter.com/scotelects/sta…
    wow, a big sample aswell.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,005
    It was a good question from Marr to Fallon in regard to have you supported all wars we have been involved in since 1945 ?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 4,156
    Scott_P said:



    @MrTCHarris: This represents an SNP > Conservative swing of 12% twitter.com/scotelects/sta…
    If the SNP finish as low as 41% I'd be surprised. Pleasantly surprised, but surprised nonetheless.

    This weekend's polling has been a trifle disappointing. No new surveys from Scotland, and no ICM either. Alas.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,993
    calum said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:



    @MrTCHarris: This represents an SNP > Conservative swing of 12% twitter.com/scotelects/sta…
    I exclusively take my scotland information from subsamples, so no dice.
    This chap blends polls & sub-samples:

    http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2017/05/subsample-average-fails-to-find-any.html
    SNP 42.8% (-2.2)
    Conservatives 30.3% (-1.2)
    Labour 15.0% (-0.8)
    Liberal Democrats 7.5% (+2.7)

    SNP: 41%
    CON: 30%
    LAB: 17%
    LDEM: 7%
    OTHER: 5%

    Ashcroft and Kelly both in agreement here. If you think those two polls are different then you're being far too over-precise.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 9,387

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:



    @MrTCHarris: This represents an SNP > Conservative swing of 12% twitter.com/scotelects/sta…
    I exclusively take my scotland information from subsamples, so no dice.
    Plus the fieldwork ended on May 1st so is 2 weeks out of date .
    Those figures were certainly not borne out by the local elections in Scotland a few days later which gave us on first preferences - SNP 32% Con 25% Lab 20%.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 4,176
    Danny565 said:

    I think Thornberry is quite a good spokesperson. She's quite good (by Labour standards) at defending the line in interviews and getting the basic numbers right sounding like she knows what she's talking about.

    She'd be awful as the actual leader though, at least if Labour wants to hold working-class Northern and Midlands seats at some point in the future.

    If I recollect right, she sends her children go to a fee-paying school, and she is a private landlord having purchased former social housing in London to rent out.

    I think Jazza’s most attractive feature is that he does try and live by a set of principles he believes in. He has a personal honesty, even if you disagree with him or think he is muddle-headed..

    Thornberry doesn’t. Thornberry would be a disaster dwarfing even Miliband and Jazza.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,993
    edited May 2017
    justin124 said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:



    @MrTCHarris: This represents an SNP > Conservative swing of 12% twitter.com/scotelects/sta…
    I exclusively take my scotland information from subsamples, so no dice.
    Plus the fieldwork ended on May 1st so is 2 weeks out of date .
    Those figures were certainly not borne out by the local elections in Scotland a few days later which gave us on first preferences - SNP 32% Con 25% Lab 20%.
    Seriously ?

    Why the smeg should GE intention voting be borne out for local elections ?!
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    As a Scottish Lib Dem (recently relocated to London) .....

    I consider your move dashed poor form .... :naughty:
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Pulpstar said:

    justin124 said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:



    @MrTCHarris: This represents an SNP > Conservative swing of 12% twitter.com/scotelects/sta…
    I exclusively take my scotland information from subsamples, so no dice.
    Plus the fieldwork ended on May 1st so is 2 weeks out of date .
    Those figures were certainly not borne out by the local elections in Scotland a few days later which gave us on first preferences - SNP 32% Con 25% Lab 20%.
    Seriously ?
    actually they are since the tory vote doubled from 13% to 25% and if the doubling happens at GE tories go from 15% to er......30% (or slightly less).
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,595
    Danny565 said:

    That said, I don't really think Tories mingling with Assad will be that damaging to them. The thing is that people view both Assad and Putin as bastards, but bastards who aren't out particularly to harm us - and so they're the lesser evil in the current world, as compared to jihadist nutters who really are out to destroy us.

    And that's where Corbyn's real vulnerability is, his calling Hamas "friends" and generally giving the impression he'd want to naively "negotiate" with ISIS, mixed together with wanting to scrap Trident, which altogether does make people scared (frankly, even as someone campaigning for Labour, it makes even me a bit scared; my hope/assumption is that, in the incredibly unlikely event of Corbyn winning, he would just focus on domestic matters while the grown-ups in Labour would take charge of all defence/foreign issues).

    The other thing to remember is that prior to 2011 Assad was seen as a good guy - Bush and Blair publicly discussed how much they liked him and thought he was 'a honey' in the infamous 'Yo Blair' incident. He was given honours and invitations by our leading universities. H was even thought of as someone who could lead a transition to a democracy and maybe even peace in the Arab world. So Fallon wasn't far out of the common line.

    Since 2011 and his bombing the living shite out of his people using chemical weapons perceptions have changed. However, Corbyn was hanging out with unreconstructed and unrepentant murderers and Holocaust deniers and supporting their actions at a time when they were still active.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 4,572
    MikeK said:

    ydoethur said:

    First after a recount by Diane Abbott.

    Why didn't he pick her up on her oft-repeated lie about being an honorary army officer? She leaves not so much an open goal as a carefully set-up own try on that one.

    Fallon as a Defence Secretary leaves much to be desired. If I was a soldier I wouldn't want to serve in the army while he was in charge.
    In my experience in the forces 99% of those serving could not tell you who the Secretary of Defence is much less give a fuck about their suitability for the office.
  • RobCRobC Posts: 380
    In trying to run the Fallon playback above my pc simply tells me "the media could not be played". Any advice from techies on the site?
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Dura_Ace said:

    MikeK said:

    ydoethur said:

    First after a recount by Diane Abbott.

    Why didn't he pick her up on her oft-repeated lie about being an honorary army officer? She leaves not so much an open goal as a carefully set-up own try on that one.

    Fallon as a Defence Secretary leaves much to be desired. If I was a soldier I wouldn't want to serve in the army while he was in charge.
    In my experience in the forces 99% of those serving could not tell you who the Secretary of Defence is much less give a fuck about their suitability for the office.
    When I was in the army I cared, and so did many others.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,612

    Jason said:

    TSE's hyperbole aside, I seriously don't think the public will equate Fallon meeting with Assad 10 years ago in an offical capacity as quite the same as an MP showing tacit support for the IRA. It's not far off from the 'Queen shaking Martin McGuinness's hand' for Corbyn's apologists.

    What official capacity was he acting in in 2007? And what was the nature of the high level talks he was having?

    He was an opposition MP going on a jolly and downing a few nice drinks at Assad's expense, simple as that.

    Not to defend Corbyn's relations with the IRA, but Thornberry made Fallon look like a bit of a tit there.

    You just cannot equate the two. Corbyn was colluding with a group of terrorists who were involved in a de facto war with the British state. You surely must be able to discern the difference. As for Thornberry, I disagree that she made a fool of Fallon. Indeed, her constant denials and spin regarding Corbyn's associations with Irish Republicanism will blow up in hers and the rest of the apologists' faces.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 52,926
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    F1: no spoilers, but the race was quite exciting, so if you opt for the highlights it's worth catching.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,595
    Good grief. What on earth is their problem that they need MacShameless to do canvassing for them? Are they fresh out of volunteers?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,908
    Pulpstar said:

    justin124 said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:



    @MrTCHarris: This represents an SNP > Conservative swing of 12% twitter.com/scotelects/sta…
    I exclusively take my scotland information from subsamples, so no dice.
    Plus the fieldwork ended on May 1st so is 2 weeks out of date .
    Those figures were certainly not borne out by the local elections in Scotland a few days later which gave us on first preferences - SNP 32% Con 25% Lab 20%.
    Seriously ?

    Why the smeg should GE intention voting be borne out for local elections ?!
    Trying to put some measure of Scottish first preference local election votes into Baxter, bearing in mind 10.5% Indy, saw the SNP down below 20 seats. I'll put that to one side as unlikely and not a great predictor of events. :)

    Interesting wiki says the SNP got exactly the same first preference percentage as 5 years ago. Remarkable consistency.
  • CyanCyan Posts: 1,262

    On topic, I'll never get tired of this.

    That hack's question is moronic. How can the British government "guarantee" what will happen in a Scottish shipyard if Scotland becomes independent? And why on earth should it promise to shift a home defence contract to a newly-become foreign country? Most SNPers who watch the interview will think "What a mealymouthed English b******, cr***ing on Scotland". They won't think "If it became independent, Scotland would lose this kind of employment, so perhaps independence isn't such a good idea after all". They'll probably think his attitude strengthens the case for independence. They don't get it that an rUK government will be expected to put rUK first and will have zero responsibility to look after Scotland or to maintain employment in Scotland. Michael Fallon should have answered "no, of course not".
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,595
    RobC said:

    In trying to run the Fallon playback above my pc simply tells me "the media could not be played". Any advice from techies on the site?

    It's a virus with a subliminal message from Corbyn about the MSM.

    If you stare at it for too long, it will hypnotise you and make you think Diane Abbott is talking sense.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,463
    Any good GE turnout markets out there? Think we will go sub 60%...
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 1,373

    Danny565 said:

    I think Thornberry is quite a good spokesperson. She's quite good (by Labour standards) at defending the line in interviews and getting the basic numbers right sounding like she knows what she's talking about.

    She'd be awful as the actual leader though, at least if Labour wants to hold working-class Northern and Midlands seats at some point in the future.

    If I recollect right, she sends her children go to a fee-paying school, and she is a private landlord having purchased former social housing in London to rent out.

    I think Jazza’s most attractive feature is that he does try and live by a set of principles he believes in. He has a personal honesty, even if you disagree with him or think he is muddle-headed..

    Thornberry doesn’t. Thornberry would be a disaster dwarfing even Miliband and Jazza.

    While you may be right in that she would be a disaster for the party, (but its hard to think she could be/would be worse than Corbyn)

    But I disagree with you other wise:

    'She sends her kids to fee paying school' - so she recognises that fee paying schools normally produce better results, and cares about her Kids education to send them there - Good for her!!!

    He is a 'landlord' - she she has an enterprising streak, good, and possibly recognisees that by being a good landlord you can both make money and your tenants life's better - Good for her!!

    She may be an terrible politician, I certainly disagree with her politics but please can we stay away form the ad-homily attacks on her personally.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,005
    Danny565 said:

    That said, I don't really think Tories mingling with Assad will be that damaging to them. The thing is that people view both Assad and Putin as bastards, but bastards who aren't out particularly to harm us - and so they're the lesser evil in the current world, as compared to jihadist nutters who really are out to destroy us.

    And that's where Corbyn's real vulnerability is, his calling Hamas "friends" and generally giving the impression he'd want to naively "negotiate" with ISIS, mixed together with wanting to scrap Trident, which altogether does make people scared (frankly, even as someone campaigning for Labour, it makes even me a bit scared; my hope/assumption is that, in the incredibly unlikely event of Corbyn winning, he would just focus on domestic matters while the grown-ups in Labour would take charge of all defence/foreign issues).

    Not having Trident as a policy does not seem to harm the SNP .Fallon saying he keeps the first strike option open to me is total rubbish in reality .However I agree that Kinnock had to change his mind between 87 and 92 and Labour policy to get a hearing with the wider public.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,993
    murali_s said:

    Any good GE turnout markets out there? Think we will go sub 60%...

    Precedent is 1966 where turnout fell by 1.3% as Wilson called an election to increase his small majority !

    That'd put it at 64.1% this time round.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 9,387
    Pulpstar said:

    justin124 said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:



    @MrTCHarris: This represents an SNP > Conservative swing of 12% twitter.com/scotelects/sta…
    I exclusively take my scotland information from subsamples, so no dice.
    Plus the fieldwork ended on May 1st so is 2 weeks out of date .
    Those figures were certainly not borne out by the local elections in Scotland a few days later which gave us on first preferences - SNP 32% Con 25% Lab 20%.
    Seriously ?

    Why the smeg should GE intention voting be borne out for local elections ?!
    It would not necessarily be precisely the same but nor should it be that far out.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,463
    Pulpstar said:

    murali_s said:

    Any good GE turnout markets out there? Think we will go sub 60%...

    Precedent is 1966 where turnout fell by 1.3% as Wilson called an election to increase his small majority !

    That'd put it at 64.1% this time round.
    Layer in Labour voters staying at home and sub 60% very much on...
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    TSE is truly bitter about the Tories. Did someone insult him or "discriminate" against him. Fallon visited Syria on a multiparty parliamentary jolly at a time when Assad was an ally. Lady Emily is a waste of space.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 9,914
    Only a football ground... only a football ground... stay strong scrap.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    I'm off to see whats left of the Players championship. (golf)
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 9,387
    I would have thought that Opposition spokesmen getting a tough time from Andrew Neil could respond pretty effectively with something like 'Of course , back in the days when you were working for Conservative Central Office ...' . To be honest, I am surprised it has not already happened over the years - unless I have missed it!
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 13,599
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:



    @MrTCHarris: This represents an SNP > Conservative swing of 12% twitter.com/scotelects/sta…
    I exclusively take my scotland information from subsamples, so no dice.
    That's the subsample from his mega poll (that had 40% SNP 2015 recollection).
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 33,872
    ELBOW for week-ending 14th May, seven polls so far - probably incomplete as ICM and Survation yet to come:
    	      Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Tory Lead
    23-Apr-17 45.50 26.10 10.40 8.60 19.40
    30-Apr-17 46.33 28.11 10.22 6.67 18.22
    07-May-17 47.10 28.50 9.40 6.40 18.60
    14-May-17 46.86 30.57 9.29 5.43 16.29
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 9,387
    Alistair said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:



    @MrTCHarris: This represents an SNP > Conservative swing of 12% twitter.com/scotelects/sta…
    I exclusively take my scotland information from subsamples, so no dice.
    That's the subsample from his mega poll (that had 40% SNP 2015 recollection).
    His megapoll was too Tory as a sample - based on a Tory 9% lead in 2015 - and a 13% LibDem vote share.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,993
    murali_s said:

    Pulpstar said:

    murali_s said:

    Any good GE turnout markets out there? Think we will go sub 60%...

    Precedent is 1966 where turnout fell by 1.3% as Wilson called an election to increase his small majority !

    That'd put it at 64.1% this time round.
    Layer in Labour voters staying at home and sub 60% very much on...
    Constituencies such as South Sheilds, Leeds East, Coventry North East start heading into play if that happens I reckon.
  • perdix said:

    TSE is truly bitter about the Tories. Did someone insult him or "discriminate" against him. Fallon visited Syria on a multiparty parliamentary jolly at a time when Assad was an ally. Lady Emily is a waste of space.

    What on earth are you wittering on about?

    I'm a huge fan of Micky Fallon, as I said this was a rare mis-step from him.

    That Emily Thornberry did this was worthy of discussion, heaven forfend a betting tip/discussion on PB.
  • Only a football ground... only a football ground... stay strong scrap.

    I feel your pain, I would have been gutted if we had left Anfield.

    Hurrah for FSG.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,908
    Mr Corbyn: I made it clear that I felt it important that any individual MP who wishes to meet anyone from anywhere should have the right to do so.

    Edit - I do feel for Kinnock sometimes. There was that leaked audio of a speech he gave a year or so ago to Labour MPs, he sounded so distraught and emotional at where he felt Labour was at that moment in time, frustrated at still having the same fights.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 18,230
    Cyan said:

    On topic, I'll never get tired of this.

    That hack's question is moronic. How can the British government "guarantee" what will happen in a Scottish shipyard if Scotland becomes independent? And why on earth should it promise to shift a home defence contract to a newly-become foreign country? Most SNPers who watch the interview will think "What a mealymouthed English b******, cr***ing on Scotland". They won't think "If it became independent, Scotland would lose this kind of employment, so perhaps independence isn't such a good idea after all". They'll probably think his attitude strengthens the case for independence. They don't get it that an rUK government will be expected to put rUK first and will have zero responsibility to look after Scotland or to maintain employment in Scotland. Michael Fallon should have answered "no, of course not".
    But the mealymouthed English b****** didn't answer "no, of course not", did he? That's the point.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,612
    Oh my the miss of the century.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,908
    RobC said:

    In trying to run the Fallon playback above my pc simply tells me "the media could not be played". Any advice from techies on the site?

    Nah, I'd just try to go direct to the BBC to watch.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 4,176
    edited May 2017
    BigRich said:

    Danny565 said:

    I think Thornberry is quite a good spokesperson. She's quite good (by Labour standards) at defending the line in interviews and getting the basic numbers right sounding like she knows what she's talking about.

    She'd be awful as the actual leader though, at least if Labour wants to hold working-class Northern and Midlands seats at some point in the future.

    If I recollect right, she sends her children go to a fee-paying school, and she is a private landlord having purchased former social housing in London to rent out.

    I think Jazza’s most attractive feature is that he does try and live by a set of principles he believes in. He has a personal honesty, even if you disagree with him or think he is muddle-headed..

    Thornberry doesn’t. Thornberry would be a disaster dwarfing even Miliband and Jazza.

    While you may be right in that she would be a disaster for the party, (but its hard to think she could be/would be worse than Corbyn)

    But I disagree with you other wise:

    'She sends her kids to fee paying school' - so she recognises that fee paying schools normally produce better results, and cares about her Kids education to send them there - Good for her!!!

    He is a 'landlord' - she she has an enterprising streak, good, and possibly recognisees that by being a good landlord you can both make money and your tenants life's better - Good for her!!

    She may be an terrible politician, I certainly disagree with her politics but please can we stay away form the ad-homily attacks on her personally.
    I think if you campaign for ‘social housing for all, not luxury flats for the wealthy’ (as Thornberry did), then you are a hypocrite if you buy social housing, make the tenants homeless and then rent it out.

    Similarly, if you campaign for an end to selective education, you are a hypocrite if you then send your children to a fee-paying school.

    I think if she was Labour Party leader, there would be rather more examination of her personal circumstances and lifestyle choices than would be comfortable -- either for her, or (perhaps more importantly) for the Labour Party.


  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,005
    Pulpstar said:

    murali_s said:

    Any good GE turnout markets out there? Think we will go sub 60%...

    Precedent is 1966 where turnout fell by 1.3% as Wilson called an election to increase his small majority !

    That'd put it at 64.1% this time round.
    Yes Wilson got a 96 majority in ,1966 with that snap election.I am betting on a 150 Maj for May in this one.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,908
    Alistair said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:



    @MrTCHarris: This represents an SNP > Conservative swing of 12% twitter.com/scotelects/sta…
    I exclusively take my scotland information from subsamples, so no dice.
    That's the subsample from his mega poll (that had 40% SNP 2015 recollection).
    And 30% 2010 recollection IIRC.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 9,914

    Only a football ground... only a football ground... stay strong scrap.

    I feel your pain, I would have been gutted if we had left Anfield.

    Hurrah for FSG.
    I'm a mess already...

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 18,230
    Alistair said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:



    @MrTCHarris: This represents an SNP > Conservative swing of 12% twitter.com/scotelects/sta…
    I exclusively take my scotland information from subsamples, so no dice.
    That's the subsample from his mega poll (that had 40% SNP 2015 recollection).
    His indy ref polling was probably the most woefully useless of the lot, 2 different pollsters over several months amalgamated if memory serves.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 1,373

    ELBOW for week-ending 14th May, seven polls so far - probably incomplete as ICM and Survation yet to come:

    	      Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Tory Lead
    23-Apr-17 45.50 26.10 10.40 8.60 19.40
    30-Apr-17 46.33 28.11 10.22 6.67 18.22
    07-May-17 47.10 28.50 9.40 6.40 18.60
    14-May-17 46.86 30.57 9.29 5.43 16.29
    A 2.31% drop in the lead in a week - that's looks like it might be the start of a trend, IMHO.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,993

    Alistair said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:



    @MrTCHarris: This represents an SNP > Conservative swing of 12% twitter.com/scotelects/sta…
    I exclusively take my scotland information from subsamples, so no dice.
    That's the subsample from his mega poll (that had 40% SNP 2015 recollection).
    His indy ref polling was probably the most woefully useless of the lot, 2 different pollsters over several months amalgamated if memory serves.
    James Kelly has almost identical figures. I would posit that Ashcroft is not a million miles out here.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,908
    edited May 2017
    Probably missed it, but UK polling report saying a YouGov with CON 49 (+2), LAB 31 (+3), LD 9(-2), UKIP 3(-3).

    First time YouGov showing LDs in single figures this year it says. Dead and buried.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9880
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 4,176
    Given a choice between believing what Nick Palmer XMP says or what Dennis McGabble XWormwoodScrubs says, then I believe Nick Palmer ever time.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 18,230
    edited May 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:



    @MrTCHarris: This represents an SNP > Conservative swing of 12% twitter.com/scotelects/sta…
    I exclusively take my scotland information from subsamples, so no dice.
    That's the subsample from his mega poll (that had 40% SNP 2015 recollection).
    His indy ref polling was probably the most woefully useless of the lot, 2 different pollsters over several months amalgamated if memory serves.
    James Kelly has almost identical figures. I would posit that Ashcroft is not a million miles out here.
    Mebbes aye, mebbes naw, my point is really that he indulges in some pretty strange methodology at times. I think Ashcroft's Scottish constituency polling in 2015 was pretty straightforward, and all the better for it.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 13,599
    edited May 2017
    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:



    @MrTCHarris: This represents an SNP > Conservative swing of 12% twitter.com/scotelects/sta…
    I exclusively take my scotland information from subsamples, so no dice.
    That's the subsample from his mega poll (that had 40% SNP 2015 recollection).
    And 30% 2010 recollection IIRC.
    Correct, which is wrong in the other direction. I have my theories about the vote recollection but too detailed to type on the phone.

    The SLab recall figures are hilarious!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,993

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:



    @MrTCHarris: This represents an SNP > Conservative swing of 12% twitter.com/scotelects/sta…
    I exclusively take my scotland information from subsamples, so no dice.
    That's the subsample from his mega poll (that had 40% SNP 2015 recollection).
    His indy ref polling was probably the most woefully useless of the lot, 2 different pollsters over several months amalgamated if memory serves.
    James Kelly has almost identical figures. I would posit that Ashcroft is not a million miles out here.
    Mebbes aye, mebbes naw, my point is really that he indulges in some pretty strange methodology at times. I think Ashcroft's Scottish constituency polling in 2015 was pretty straightforward, and all the better for it.
    SNP low forties, Tories low thirties, Labour nowhere & Lib Dems with the normal massively regional Scots polling we always have.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited May 2017

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:



    @MrTCHarris: This represents an SNP > Conservative swing of 12% twitter.com/scotelects/sta…
    I exclusively take my scotland information from subsamples, so no dice.
    That's the subsample from his mega poll (that had 40% SNP 2015 recollection).
    His indy ref polling was probably the most woefully useless of the lot, 2 different pollsters over several months amalgamated if memory serves.
    James Kelly has almost identical figures. I would posit that Ashcroft is not a million miles out here.
    Mebbes aye, mebbes naw, my point is really that he indulges in some pretty strange methodology at times. I think Ashcroft's Scottish constituency polling in 2015 was pretty straightforward, and all the better for it.
    Ashcroft's Scottish polling in 2015 wasn't that good, really. I remember he predicted Glasgow North East as a Labour hold - in the event, it was one of the very biggest swings of the lot.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,993
    edited May 2017
    Danny565 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:



    @MrTCHarris: This represents an SNP > Conservative swing of 12% twitter.com/scotelects/sta…
    I exclusively take my scotland information from subsamples, so no dice.
    That's the subsample from his mega poll (that had 40% SNP 2015 recollection).
    His indy ref polling was probably the most woefully useless of the lot, 2 different pollsters over several months amalgamated if memory serves.
    James Kelly has almost identical figures. I would posit that Ashcroft is not a million miles out here.
    Mebbes aye, mebbes naw, my point is really that he indulges in some pretty strange methodology at times. I think Ashcroft's Scottish constituency polling in 2015 was pretty straightforward, and all the better for it.
    Ashcroft's Scottish polling in 2015 wasn't that good, really. I remember he predicted Glasgow North East as a Labour hold - in the event, it was one of the very biggest swings of the lot.
    When the dam breaks :D

    One of the reasons I'd advise against backing Labour in working class non city wards too heavily.
    Bolsover at 1-5 looked tempting but I'm not sure Labour really should be 1-5 on there...
    (Price last time I looked)
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited May 2017
    BigRich said:

    ELBOW for week-ending 14th May, seven polls so far - probably incomplete as ICM and Survation yet to come:

    	      Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Tory Lead
    23-Apr-17 45.50 26.10 10.40 8.60 19.40
    30-Apr-17 46.33 28.11 10.22 6.67 18.22
    07-May-17 47.10 28.50 9.40 6.40 18.60
    14-May-17 46.86 30.57 9.29 5.43 16.29
    A 2.31% drop in the lead in a week - that's looks like it might be the start of a trend, IMHO.
    Its a trend in ELBOW, but I doubt its reflected in reality. People might say they are going to vote Labour, but a lot just won't vote for Corbyn. He is toxicity personified... and you haven't got the latest ICM either.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Yorkcity said:

    Danny565 said:

    That said, I don't really think Tories mingling with Assad will be that damaging to them. The thing is that people view both Assad and Putin as bastards, but bastards who aren't out particularly to harm us - and so they're the lesser evil in the current world, as compared to jihadist nutters who really are out to destroy us.

    And that's where Corbyn's real vulnerability is, his calling Hamas "friends" and generally giving the impression he'd want to naively "negotiate" with ISIS, mixed together with wanting to scrap Trident, which altogether does make people scared (frankly, even as someone campaigning for Labour, it makes even me a bit scared; my hope/assumption is that, in the incredibly unlikely event of Corbyn winning, he would just focus on domestic matters while the grown-ups in Labour would take charge of all defence/foreign issues).

    Not having Trident as a policy does not seem to harm the SNP .Fallon saying he keeps the first strike option open to me is total rubbish in reality .However I agree that Kinnock had to change his mind between 87 and 92 and Labour policy to get a hearing with the wider public.
    A leader might, MIGHT, be able to get away with a commitment to scrapping Trident if they otherwise took a tough stance on terrorism, and were generally regarded as tough and competent. Unfortunately, Corbyn isn't - at all.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    ELBOW for week-ending 14th May, seven polls so far - probably incomplete as ICM and Survation yet to come:

    	      Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Tory Lead
    23-Apr-17 45.50 26.10 10.40 8.60 19.40
    30-Apr-17 46.33 28.11 10.22 6.67 18.22
    07-May-17 47.10 28.50 9.40 6.40 18.60
    14-May-17 46.86 30.57 9.29 5.43 16.29
    The lead is not really the interesting trend. Labour and Tories up, UKIP and LD down are the interesting trends.

    I doubt UKIP can be squeezed much below 4%. How low can the LDs be squeezed?

    This truly is a fascinating period for British politics.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,698
    What a cool lady. As I said yesterday an ideal replacement for Jeremy.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 13,599
    edited May 2017
    Danny565 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:



    @MrTCHarris: This represents an SNP > Conservative swing of 12% twitter.com/scotelects/sta…
    I exclusively take my scotland information from subsamples, so no dice.
    That's the subsample from his mega poll (that had 40% SNP 2015 recollection).
    His indy ref polling was probably the most woefully useless of the lot, 2 different pollsters over several months amalgamated if memory serves.
    James Kelly has almost identical figures. I would posit that Ashcroft is not a million miles out here.
    Mebbes aye, mebbes naw, my point is really that he indulges in some pretty strange methodology at times. I think Ashcroft's Scottish constituency polling in 2015 was pretty straightforward, and all the better for it.
    Ashcroft's Scottish polling in 2015 wasn't that good, really. I remember he predicted Glasgow North East as a Labour hold - in the event, it was one of the very biggest swings of the lot.
    Overall Ashcroft's Scottish Constituency polling was shockingly accurate.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,005
    Danny565 said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Danny565 said:

    That said, I don't really think Tories mingling with Assad will be that damaging to them. The thing is that people view both Assad and Putin as bastards, but bastards who aren't out particularly to harm us - and so they're the lesser evil in the current world, as compared to jihadist nutters who really are out to destroy us.

    And that's where Corbyn's real vulnerability is, his calling Hamas "friends" and generally giving the impression he'd want to naively "negotiate" with ISIS, mixed together with wanting to scrap Trident, which altogether does make people scared (frankly, even as someone campaigning for Labour, it makes even me a bit scared; my hope/assumption is that, in the incredibly unlikely event of Corbyn winning, he would just focus on domestic matters while the grown-ups in Labour would take charge of all defence/foreign issues).

    Not having Trident as a policy does not seem to harm the SNP .Fallon saying he keeps the first strike option open to me is total rubbish in reality .However I agree that Kinnock had to change his mind between 87 and 92 and Labour policy to get a hearing with the wider public.
    A leader might, MIGHT, be able to get away with a commitment to scrapping Trident if they otherwise took a tough stance on terrorism, and were generally regarded as tough and competent. Unfortunately, Corbyn isn't - at all.
    Very true Emily Thornberry was miles better on all the points you mention.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Question. With Ireland playing NZ in a ODI, do the Brits support Ireland or NZ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,993
    Alistair said:

    Danny565 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:



    @MrTCHarris: This represents an SNP > Conservative swing of 12% twitter.com/scotelects/sta…
    I exclusively take my scotland information from subsamples, so no dice.
    That's the subsample from his mega poll (that had 40% SNP 2015 recollection).
    His indy ref polling was probably the most woefully useless of the lot, 2 different pollsters over several months amalgamated if memory serves.
    James Kelly has almost identical figures. I would posit that Ashcroft is not a million miles out here.
    Mebbes aye, mebbes naw, my point is really that he indulges in some pretty strange methodology at times. I think Ashcroft's Scottish constituency polling in 2015 was pretty straightforward, and all the better for it.
    Ashcroft's Scottish polling in 2015 wasn't that good, really. I remember he predicted Glasgow North East as a Labour hold - in the event, it was one of the very biggest swings of the lot.
    Overall Ashcroft's Scottish Constituency polling was shockingly accurate.
    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/02/glasgow-north-east/

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/02/coatbridge-chryston-bellshill/

    The polls were in February, I think the SNP surge was still taking place at that point.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 52,926
    F1: my post-race ramble (obviously spoiler-laden, so don't click if you're waiting for the highlights) is here:
    http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/05/spain-post-race-analysis-2017.html
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,908
    MTimT said:

    Question. With Ireland playing NZ in a ODI, do the Brits support Ireland or NZ?

    NZ
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,463
    MTimT said:

    ELBOW for week-ending 14th May, seven polls so far - probably incomplete as ICM and Survation yet to come:

    	      Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Tory Lead
    23-Apr-17 45.50 26.10 10.40 8.60 19.40
    30-Apr-17 46.33 28.11 10.22 6.67 18.22
    07-May-17 47.10 28.50 9.40 6.40 18.60
    14-May-17 46.86 30.57 9.29 5.43 16.29
    The lead is not really the interesting trend. Labour and Tories up, UKIP and LD down are the interesting trends.

    I doubt UKIP can be squeezed much below 4%. How low can the LDs be squeezed?

    This truly is a fascinating period for British politics.
    Is it? A one party state (who also control the press and establishment) healthy for UK democracy? Very desperate times for the UK...
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,612
    kle4 said:

    Probably missed it, but UK polling report saying a YouGov with CON 49 (+2), LAB 31 (+3), LD 9(-2), UKIP 3(-3).

    First time YouGov showing LDs in single figures this year it says. Dead and buried.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9880

    It does look like the Dims are being squeezed, but I still think Labour are being significantly overstated. I just cannot believe they are polling better than Milibnad was. If they are, it makes a mockery of the moderates claim that one of their own would make a better leader. Remember Labour's 2015 front bench contained the vast majority of all of the touted leadership contenders. Collectively they achieved less than 32%. If Corbyn matches that (and I think that's highly improbable), it will lead to a Labour split, there's no question about that.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,507
    Danny565 said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Danny565 said:

    That said, I don't really think Tories mingling with Assad will be that damaging to them. The thing is that people view both Assad and Putin as bastards, but bastards who aren't out particularly to harm us - and so they're the lesser evil in the current world, as compared to jihadist nutters who really are out to destroy us.

    And that's where Corbyn's real vulnerability is, his calling Hamas "friends" and generally giving the impression he'd want to naively "negotiate" with ISIS, mixed together with wanting to scrap Trident, which altogether does make people scared (frankly, even as someone campaigning for Labour, it makes even me a bit scared; my hope/assumption is that, in the incredibly unlikely event of Corbyn winning, he would just focus on domestic matters while the grown-ups in Labour would take charge of all defence/foreign issues).

    Not having Trident as a policy does not seem to harm the SNP .Fallon saying he keeps the first strike option open to me is total rubbish in reality .However I agree that Kinnock had to change his mind between 87 and 92 and Labour policy to get a hearing with the wider public.
    A leader might, MIGHT, be able to get away with a commitment to scrapping Trident if they otherwise took a tough stance on terrorism, and were generally regarded as tough and competent. Unfortunately, Corbyn isn't - at all.
    IMHO, a party could get elected on a socialist economic programme, from time to time, if it was led by patriots, like Attlee's government.

    But, left wing economics, combined with hostility towards one's country is an electoral dead end.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 18,230
    kle4 said:

    MTimT said:

    Question. With Ireland playing NZ in a ODI, do the Brits support Ireland or NZ?

    NZ
    Hard border it is.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,993
    The idea that Thornberry would be worse than Corbyn is for the birds. In fact even McIRA would be better as he'd fool more people than Corbyn.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    BigRich said:

    ELBOW for week-ending 14th May, seven polls so far - probably incomplete as ICM and Survation yet to come:

    	      Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Tory Lead
    23-Apr-17 45.50 26.10 10.40 8.60 19.40
    30-Apr-17 46.33 28.11 10.22 6.67 18.22
    07-May-17 47.10 28.50 9.40 6.40 18.60
    14-May-17 46.86 30.57 9.29 5.43 16.29
    A 2.31% drop in the lead in a week - that's looks like it might be the start of a trend, IMHO.
    In the absence of Con-Lab switches, how much more can be squeezed from UKIP and Libs?
This discussion has been closed.