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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marf on GE2017 looking a bit more competitive and TMay’s “soci

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  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,776
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    DavidL said:
    That is sublime.

    Matt is one of the era's great Britons.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    rcs1000 said:

    The election campaign in 1987 was generally regarded as having been won decisively by Labour. It featured slick and professional election broadcasts, such as 'Kinnock the Movie', directed by Colin Welland. The campaign was led by Bryan Gould and a young Peter Mandelson. And yet, it appears to have made f-all difference to the result.

    TMay's denial today that she had made a u-turn was one of the most embarrassing performances I've ever seen from a PM (a little reminiscent to my mind of Gordon Brown's denial that the polling was what lay behind his decision not to have an election in 2007). And yet, ultimately, I don't think it'll make any difference to the fact that Labour are heading for a shattering defeat.

    I would say it did make a difference to the result as it helped Labour beat the Alliance - something which had been in doubt at the start of the election campaign.

    Likewise Labour are having a much better campaign than the LibDems this year - although ironically Labour are likely to lose MPs and the LibDems to gain them.
    Which seats are the LibDems going to gain?
    Edinburgh West (80%)
    Fife NE (50%)
    Dumbartonshire East (40%)
    Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross (60%)
    Argyll & Bute (33%)

    Twickenham (40%)
    Bath (25%)
    Lewes (15%)
    Kingston-upon-Thames (15%)
    OxWAb (20%)

    Cambridge (40%)
    Southwark (25%)
    Hornsey & Wood Green (5%)
    Vauxhall (0.1%)

    Of course, there's a lot of correlation in these. Nevertheless, my money would be on them gaining two, or possibly three, seats in Scotland, plus Twickenham and Cambridge.

    Against that, they'll almost certainly lose Carshalton, and Southport. North Norfolk is 50/50, and there has to be a fair chance they'll lose Sheffield Hallam. It's not implausible (15% chance) that they lose Leeds NW and even possible Westmoreland and Lonsdale.

    Really, the only safe seat they have is Orkney & Shetland.
    So are you offering 500/1 on a LibDem gain in Vauxhall :wink:

    I really don't see the LibDems having that much of a chance of overturning a near 10,000 majority in Oxford West.

    On the other hand there's Ross, Skye and Lochaber - might be LibDem possibilities there.
  • CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    edited May 2017

    As Theresa May goes into meltdown, there are are two past analogies that are striking. One is the 1970 General Election, when some opinion polls were giving Harold Wilson, who ran a highly controlled, almost complacent campaign, a double digit lead over Heath right up to election day. The other is 1945, when there was a widespread presumption that Churchill would easily triumph. Attlee himself said on the eve of polling that the Tories would have a majority of more than 70. Yet the electorate warmed to Labour's commitment to mass nationalisation, taxpayer-funded healthcare . wealth redistribution and a vast expansion in social housing.

    And let's hope they vote similarly in 2017, even if Labour's proposed redistribution of wealth this time is so miniscule.

    I was thinking of Winston Churchill today. Imagine if in 1945 Labour had reminded people of things he'd said 30 years before, prefiguring the current Tory targeting of Jeremy Corbyn.

    From 1919:

    "I cannot understand this squeamishness about the use of gas. I am strongly in favour of using poisoned gas against uncivilised tribes."

    From only eight years before, in 1937:

    "I do not admit for instance, that a great wrong has been done to the Red Indians of America or the black people of Australia. I do not admit that a wrong has been done to these people by the fact that a stronger race, a higher-grade race, a more worldly wise race to put it that way, has come in and taken their place."

    Then there was the famine in Bengal only two years before, in which millions were killed because of deliberate British inaction.

    And there are still rentaturd academics around who try to justify his choices.

    At least there was opposition to awarding him the Nobel Peace Prize, when people noticed it wouldn't look good to confuse war with peace.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Alistair said:

    rcs1000 said:



    Edinburgh West (80%)

    That's Conservative in my estimation. As in your odds, not who'll take the seat.
    It's the most certain gain in LibDem-world :smile:
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I'm increasingly of the view that the Lib Dems will have more MPs in Scotland than England next month. Neither number might be particularly substantial.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Penddu said:


    And expect Labours only gain across the UK in Gower as local voters regret their decision last time...

    I reckon Byron will get back in with an increased majority. His seat has 2015 Nuneaton written all over it.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Cyan said:

    As Theresa May goes into meltdown, there are are two past analogies that are striking. One is the 1970 General Election, when some opinion polls were giving Harold Wilson, who ran a highly controlled, almost complacent campaign, a double digit lead over Heath right up to election day. The other is 1945, when there was a widespread presumption that Churchill would easily triumph. Attlee himself said on the eve of polling that the Tories would have a majority of more than 70. Yet the electorate warmed to Labour's commitment to mass nationalisation, taxpayer-funded healthcare . wealth redistribution and a vast expansion in social housing.

    And let's hope they vote similarly in 2017, even if Labour's proposed redistribution of wealth this time is so miniscule.

    I was thinking of Winston Churchill today. Imagine if in 1945 Labour had reminded people of things he'd said 30 years before, prefiguring the current Tory targeting of Jeremy Corbyn.

    From 1919:

    "I cannot understand this squeamishness about the use of gas. I am strongly in favour of using poisoned gas against uncivilised tribes."

    From only eight years before, in 1937:

    "I do not admit for instance, that a great wrong has been done to the Red Indians of America or the black people of Australia. I do not admit that a wrong has been done to these people by the fact that a stronger race, a higher-grade race, a more worldly wise race to put it that way, has come in and taken their place."

    Then there was the famine in Bengal only two years before, in which millions were killed because of deliberate British inaction.

    And there are still rentaturd academics around who try to justify his choices.

    At least there was opposition to awarding him the Nobel Peace Prize, when people noticed it wouldn't look good to confuse war with peace.
    He won the Nobel for Literature.
  • valleyboyvalleyboy Posts: 605
    Penddu said:

    Some belated thoughts on the Welsh poll.

    This one looks much more realistic than last one.. The Tory surge in last poll was probably a snap reaction to Confident Teresa calling the election when she did and Corbyns bumbling reaction.it was never going to last.

    Since then the spotlight on Nanny Teresa Maybe is starting to highlight her many flaws while at the same time Carwyn Jones has successfully distanced himself and the Welsh family from his idiot cousin in London.


    This poll probably boosts Labour a bit more because of the untimely death of Rhodri Morgan who epitomised the best that Welsh Labour had to offer (note the past tense).

    Plaid and LD are obviously feeling the squeeze at the moment but I expect both to firm up where they are strongest and voters can see a realistic alternative. The punters piling into Labour holding Ynys Mon may regret their actions as Plaid should not only win, but Uncle Albert will be pushed into third

    But possible Conservative gains are looking slim....forget Bridgend - Carwyns castle...Newport West and Wrexham more likely . Maybe Delyn...but that is about that

    And expect Labours only gain across the UK in Gower as local voters regret their decision last time...



    Just to add that this is more in line with the locals where Labour did better than expected. Not sure about the Rhodri boost, but I did post a week ago that Gower was very much in play for Labour. Still a fortnight to go, but its looking to me like Anglesey only Labour seat in danger.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967

    I'm increasingly of the view that the Lib Dems will have more MPs in Scotland than England next month. Neither number might be particularly substantial.

    Its not impossible that they'll be infinitely more Scottish LibDem MPs than English LibDem MPs.

    Or that there are more Scottish LibDem MPs than SCON MPs.
  • TudorRose said:

    RobD said:

    @another_richard - here's hoping for some much needed swingback! :p

    But there's still Thanet to come at some point... the timing on that could be critical to momentum (both types).
    And Nick Timothy was also entangled in the fun in South Thanet.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/16/pms-chief-of-staff-embroiled-in-south-thanet-election-spending-row

    Nick Timothy the anti-Midas?
    and to add some extra spice-Andy Coulson is now a local :)

    Oh to be a fly on the wall if those two were to sit down and reminisce about the "good old days "
  • CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    Tim_B said:

    Cyan said:

    As Theresa May goes into meltdown, there are are two past analogies that are striking. One is the 1970 General Election, when some opinion polls were giving Harold Wilson, who ran a highly controlled, almost complacent campaign, a double digit lead over Heath right up to election day. The other is 1945, when there was a widespread presumption that Churchill would easily triumph. Attlee himself said on the eve of polling that the Tories would have a majority of more than 70. Yet the electorate warmed to Labour's commitment to mass nationalisation, taxpayer-funded healthcare . wealth redistribution and a vast expansion in social housing.

    And let's hope they vote similarly in 2017, even if Labour's proposed redistribution of wealth this time is so miniscule.

    I was thinking of Winston Churchill today. Imagine if in 1945 Labour had reminded people of things he'd said 30 years before, prefiguring the current Tory targeting of Jeremy Corbyn.

    From 1919:

    "I cannot understand this squeamishness about the use of gas. I am strongly in favour of using poisoned gas against uncivilised tribes."

    From only eight years before, in 1937:

    "I do not admit for instance, that a great wrong has been done to the Red Indians of America or the black people of Australia. I do not admit that a wrong has been done to these people by the fact that a stronger race, a higher-grade race, a more worldly wise race to put it that way, has come in and taken their place."

    Then there was the famine in Bengal only two years before, in which millions were killed because of deliberate British inaction.

    And there are still rentaturd academics around who try to justify his choices.

    At least there was opposition to awarding him the Nobel Peace Prize, when people noticed it wouldn't look good to confuse war with peace.
    He won the Nobel for Literature.
    Yes he did. That was after it was proposed that he should get it for Peace.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    murali_s said:

    PB Tories: Why the worry? You lot are going to win, maybe even win big. Yes, your leader is totoally hapless and quite frankly a bit sh*t, but Labour's leader is even worse.

    Labour are not winning this election!! Can you f*cking relax now!

    Yes what is wrong with them.They call a snap election which they will win easily .They have a strong and stable leader who they adore.They have Brexit sown up .What the fuck else do they want ?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    I'm increasingly of the view that the Lib Dems will have more MPs in Scotland than England next month. Neither number might be particularly substantial.

    This looks increasingly likely.

    What are your thoughts on Con total Alastair? I'm relatively relaxed about marginals in the Midlands, a little less about Wales.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    Watching Sky press preview - brutal headlines !
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    I'm increasingly of the view that the Lib Dems will have more MPs in Scotland than England next month. Neither number might be particularly substantial.

    i am becoming more optomistic. I think LDs will be 10-19, benefiting from anti Tory tactical votes.

  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    Stephen Glover: "We surely want a leader who can be flexible."

    Oh how we laughed.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Pulpstar said:

    Penddu said:


    And expect Labours only gain across the UK in Gower as local voters regret their decision last time...

    I reckon Byron will get back in with an increased majority. His seat has 2015 Nuneaton written all over it.
    I think Byron is helped by UKIP standing. UKIP take votes from the northern industrial part of the constituency.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Yorkcity said:

    murali_s said:

    PB Tories: Why the worry? You lot are going to win, maybe even win big. Yes, your leader is totoally hapless and quite frankly a bit sh*t, but Labour's leader is even worse.

    Labour are not winning this election!! Can you f*cking relax now!

    Yes what is wrong with them.They call a snap election which they will win easily .They have a strong and stable leader who they adore.They have Brexit sown up .What the fuck else do they want ?
    As LBJ would have said "They want it ALL!"
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    This surely has to go down as one of the biggest unforced errors of all time. What a farce, 10 minutes of critical thinking by anyone outside of the Timothy bubble and it would never have made the manifesto. Hopefully this is his last bungle and Theresa dumps him after the election.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    I'm increasingly of the view that the Lib Dems will have more MPs in Scotland than England next month. Neither number might be particularly substantial.

    Its not impossible that they'll be infinitely more Scottish LibDem MPs than English LibDem MPs.

    Or that there are more Scottish LibDem MPs than SCON MPs.
    There will be definitely 3 SCon MPs baring some late collapse of epic proportions.

    I'm only willing to say there will be definitely 2 SLDs.
  • Even Corbyn's side know what his downfall will be. Labour members may not care but the general public will

    http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/08/07/the-idea-that-jeremy-corbyn-laid-the-foundations-for-peace-in-northern-ireland-is-total-fantasy/

    Surely the Tories have something lined up about this - it seems to me they are leaving it late to go big. Perhaps it will be left to Andrew Neil to hammer it home

    Corbyn will be fine when he gets Brilloed,
    Hes the last to go
    Many will be bored of listening to politicians each night
    And
    Its a Friday of a holiday weekend so many will be down the pub/firing up the bbq/ding anything but listening to Jezz


  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774


    So are you offering 500/1 on a LibDem gain in Vauxhall :wink:

    I really don't see the LibDems having that much of a chance of overturning a near 10,000 majority in Oxford West.

    On the other hand there's Ross, Skye and Lochaber - might be LibDem possibilities there.

    With Scotland, I've basically just looked at the Scottish locals this year and at the Holyrood elections last year.

    Take Edinburgh West: the LDs saw a 10% swing to them in Holyrood last year, and followed that up with close to 50% of the first choice votes in the locals this month. Oh yes, and the sitting MP isn't standing thanks to having been charged.

    Fife NE: another big swing in Holyrood, and the only area on the Wikipedia Scottish local elections map where the LDs are in the lead. Against that, it's not Willie Rennard standing.

    Dumbartonshire East. Everyone loves Jo Swinson, but the LDs did not perform well in either Holyrood or local elections.

    Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross. Good Hoylrood performance, serious SNP problems in the constiuency.

    Argyll & Bute. Reasonable performance in Holyrood, good locals.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Pulpstar said:

    Penddu said:


    And expect Labours only gain across the UK in Gower as local voters regret their decision last time...

    I reckon Byron will get back in with an increased majority. His seat has 2015 Nuneaton written all over it.
    I think Byron is helped by UKIP standing. UKIP take votes from the northern industrial part of the constituency.
    Ynys Mons Plaid; Gower Labour could happen, I'm betting against it though !
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    So they've dragged up Southern Commands Sean O'Callaghan.

    He is a long term refugee from the republican movement as represented by the Provos and Sinn Fein and his self-confessed moment of 'jesus christ are these the people I've signed up to fight with?' is an interesting one.

    He is also correct regarding the Corbyn's active and, I repeat the word again, active support of the armed Provisional republican movement. Within Republicanism there was long this idea that they could somehow shift the Brits out, both the ones who live here and the ones in London. Having support from Brits always felt good, it always motivated that they were part of the multi pronged approach.

    Standard Provo strategy. It failed. Violent republicanism failed in its objective, thats why they came to the table, they knew they didn't have enough to push the Brits out.

    Corbyn backed a loser because he is a loser.
  • bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    Yorkcity said:

    murali_s said:

    PB Tories: Why the worry? You lot are going to win, maybe even win big. Yes, your leader is totoally hapless and quite frankly a bit sh*t, but Labour's leader is even worse.

    Labour are not winning this election!! Can you f*cking relax now!

    Yes what is wrong with them.They call a snap election which they will win easily .They have a strong and stable leader who they adore.They have Brexit sown up .What the fuck else do they want ?
    I have been pondering exactly this. I think was must be underlying it all is the creeping realisation that May is just a bit rubbish. Nothing much else makes sense. Tory majority of 95.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996
    An ironic end to the Liberal party political tradition, if it happens: becoming a receptacle of unionist votes in the Celtic nations.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Penddu said:


    And expect Labours only gain across the UK in Gower as local voters regret their decision last time...

    I reckon Byron will get back in with an increased majority. His seat has 2015 Nuneaton written all over it.
    I think Byron is helped by UKIP standing. UKIP take votes from the northern industrial part of the constituency.
    Ynys Mons Plaid; Gower Labour could happen, I'm betting against it though !
    I think you are wrong about Ynys Mon.

    If the Labour vote had collapsed, then the Tories would take it -- courtesy of Labour voters who prefer to see a Tory than Plaid.

    Also, the PC candidate is the former MP/AM for Ynys Mon and Former Deputy First Minister of Wales (Ieuan Wyn Jones). He’ll have a personal vote, and can call in favours.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Y0kel said:

    Standard Provo strategy. It failed. Violent republicanism failed in its objective, thats why they came to the table, they knew they didn't have enough to push the Brits out.

    Corbyn backed a loser because he is a loser.

    I saw that earlier. Corbyn describes it as a ceasefire because he doesn't like the more accurate term, defeat.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Y0kel said:

    So they've dragged up Southern Commands Sean O'Callaghan.

    He is a long term refugee from the republican movement as represented by the Provos and Sinn Fein and his self-confessed moment of 'jesus christ are these the people I've signed up to fight with?' is an interesting one.

    He is also correct regarding the Corbyn's active and, I repeat the word again, active support of the armed Provisional republican movement. Within Republicanism there was long this idea that they could somehow shift the Brits out, both the ones who live here and the ones in London. Having support from Brits always felt good, it always motivated that they were part of the multi pronged approach.

    Standard Provo strategy. It failed. Violent republicanism failed in its objective, thats why they came to the table, they knew they didn't have enough to push the Brits out.

    Corbyn backed a loser because he is a loser.

    A bit like Sears merging with K-Mart.
  • bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042

    Even Corbyn's side know what his downfall will be. Labour members may not care but the general public will

    http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/08/07/the-idea-that-jeremy-corbyn-laid-the-foundations-for-peace-in-northern-ireland-is-total-fantasy/

    Surely the Tories have something lined up about this - it seems to me they are leaving it late to go big. Perhaps it will be left to Andrew Neil to hammer it home

    Corbyn will be fine when he gets Brilloed,
    Hes the last to go
    Many will be bored of listening to politicians each night
    And
    Its a Friday of a holiday weekend so many will be down the pub/firing up the bbq/ding anything but listening to Jezz


    The weekend weather is going to be scorching in much of the country. Sunday could see the record broken for the hottest May day on record (32.8c I believe) although odds against. Record or no record it's looking hot from Thursday onwards so as you say very few people are going to be watching politicians on the telly on Friday night.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    Y0kel said:

    So they've dragged up Southern Commands Sean O'Callaghan.

    He is a long term refugee from the republican movement as represented by the Provos and Sinn Fein and his self-confessed moment of 'jesus christ are these the people I've signed up to fight with?' is an interesting one.

    He is also correct regarding the Corbyn's active and, I repeat the word again, active support of the armed Provisional republican movement. Within Republicanism there was long this idea that they could somehow shift the Brits out, both the ones who live here and the ones in London. Having support from Brits always felt good, it always motivated that they were part of the multi pronged approach.

    Standard Provo strategy. It failed. Violent republicanism failed in its objective, thats why they came to the table, they knew they didn't have enough to push the Brits out.

    Corbyn backed a loser because he is a loser.

    Not a Tory councillor????........
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    MaxPB said:

    This surely has to go down as one of the biggest unforced errors of all time. What a farce, 10 minutes of critical thinking by anyone outside of the Timothy bubble and it would never have made the manifesto. Hopefully this is his last bungle and Theresa dumps him after the election.

    Can't she dump him BEFORE the election? ;)
  • scotslassscotslass Posts: 912
    rcs1000 Posts: 18,176
    10:53PM

    In fact the sitting MP in Edinburgh West has not been charged with anything. I suggest you get your post down pronto before Mike does it for you - otherwise no 18,176 might be your last.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922
    bobajobPB said:

    Yorkcity said:

    murali_s said:

    PB Tories: Why the worry? You lot are going to win, maybe even win big. Yes, your leader is totoally hapless and quite frankly a bit sh*t, but Labour's leader is even worse.

    Labour are not winning this election!! Can you f*cking relax now!

    Yes what is wrong with them.They call a snap election which they will win easily .They have a strong and stable leader who they adore.They have Brexit sown up .What the fuck else do they want ?
    I have been pondering exactly this. I think was must be underlying it all is the creeping realisation that May is just a bit rubbish. Nothing much else makes sense. Tory majority of 95.
    If May is just a bit rubbish, what does that make Corbyn? :lol:
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    reports of explosion in manchester
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    lets hope it's a false alarm
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    oh dear, is Gary showing the first signs....
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    bobajobPB said:

    Yorkcity said:

    murali_s said:

    PB Tories: Why the worry? You lot are going to win, maybe even win big. Yes, your leader is totoally hapless and quite frankly a bit sh*t, but Labour's leader is even worse.

    Labour are not winning this election!! Can you f*cking relax now!

    Yes what is wrong with them.They call a snap election which they will win easily .They have a strong and stable leader who they adore.They have Brexit sown up .What the fuck else do they want ?
    I have been pondering exactly this. I think was must be underlying it all is the creeping realisation that May is just a bit rubbish. Nothing much else makes sense. Tory majority of 95.
    Still think majority of 100+. However, "moon on a stick" Brexit just ain't happening. Being incapable of producing a manifesto does not bode well. May brushed off the "how can no deal be better than a bad deal?" question tonight, but it is not a long-term strategy just to refuse to answer, particularly as the EU will make all discussion documents public.
    Would have got good odds on May coming out of this campaign with her majority enhanced, but reputation diminished.
  • OUTOUT Posts: 569
    rcs1000 said:


    So are you offering 500/1 on a LibDem gain in Vauxhall :wink:

    I really don't see the LibDems having that much of a chance of overturning a near 10,000 majority in Oxford West.

    On the other hand there's Ross, Skye and Lochaber - might be LibDem possibilities there.

    With Scotland, I've basically just looked at the Scottish locals this year and at the Holyrood elections last year.

    Take Edinburgh West: the LDs saw a 10% swing to them in Holyrood last year, and followed that up with close to 50% of the first choice votes in the locals this month. Oh yes, and the sitting MP isn't standing thanks to having been charged.

    Fife NE: another big swing in Holyrood, and the only area on the Wikipedia Scottish local elections map where the LDs are in the lead. Against that, it's not Willie Rennard standing.

    Dumbartonshire East. Everyone loves Jo Swinson, but the LDs did not perform well in either Holyrood or local elections.

    Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross. Good Hoylrood performance, serious SNP problems in the constiuency.

    Argyll & Bute. Reasonable performance in Holyrood, good locals.
    Yep they'll really miss Rennard? And Dumbartonshire East, is that a new constituency?
  • bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042

    bobajobPB said:

    Yorkcity said:

    murali_s said:

    PB Tories: Why the worry? You lot are going to win, maybe even win big. Yes, your leader is totoally hapless and quite frankly a bit sh*t, but Labour's leader is even worse.

    Labour are not winning this election!! Can you f*cking relax now!

    Yes what is wrong with them.They call a snap election which they will win easily .They have a strong and stable leader who they adore.They have Brexit sown up .What the fuck else do they want ?
    I have been pondering exactly this. I think was must be underlying it all is the creeping realisation that May is just a bit rubbish. Nothing much else makes sense. Tory majority of 95.
    If May is just a bit rubbish, what does that make Corbyn? :lol:
    Total garbage, but we all knew that already. As it is, the garbage turned out to be a better campaigner than the rubbish. Funny old world.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Scott_P said:
    What is the express going on the weather ?
  • bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    Yorkcity said:

    Scott_P said:
    What is the express going on the weather ?
    91F - for once they might actually be right (stopped clock syndrome)
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited May 2017
    Floater said:

    reports of explosion in manchester

    Police telling people to stay away, but don't seem to be evacuating the area. Hopefully it's something mundane.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited May 2017

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Penddu said:


    And expect Labours only gain across the UK in Gower as local voters regret their decision last time...

    I reckon Byron will get back in with an increased majority. His seat has 2015 Nuneaton written all over it.
    I think Byron is helped by UKIP standing. UKIP take votes from the northern industrial part of the constituency.
    Ynys Mons Plaid; Gower Labour could happen, I'm betting against it though !
    I think you are wrong about Ynys Mon.

    If the Labour vote had collapsed, then the Tories would take it -- courtesy of Labour voters who prefer to see a Tory than Plaid.

    Also, the PC candidate is the former MP/AM for Ynys Mon and Former Deputy First Minister of Wales (Ieuan Wyn Jones). He’ll have a personal vote, and can call in favours.
    Hmm looking back at the Welsh Assembly votes I can't see any evidence of a personal vote for Ieuan Wyn Jones whatsoever. The majority substantially increased when Rhun ap Iorwerth ran..

    Similiarly neither Alistair Carmichael nor Dennis Skinner has a personal vote when you examine the previous histories of Orkney and Bolsover.

    I'm prepared to take a gamble on Labour there at between 10 and 12 to 1 anyway.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    bobajobPB said:

    Yorkcity said:

    murali_s said:

    PB Tories: Why the worry? You lot are going to win, maybe even win big. Yes, your leader is totoally hapless and quite frankly a bit sh*t, but Labour's leader is even worse.

    Labour are not winning this election!! Can you f*cking relax now!

    Yes what is wrong with them.They call a snap election which they will win easily .They have a strong and stable leader who they adore.They have Brexit sown up .What the fuck else do they want ?
    I have been pondering exactly this. I think was must be underlying it all is the creeping realisation that May is just a bit rubbish. Nothing much else makes sense. Tory majority of 95.
    Similar to the Labour snap election of 1966 .They lost the following one in 70.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    bobajobPB said:

    Even Corbyn's side know what his downfall will be. Labour members may not care but the general public will

    http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/08/07/the-idea-that-jeremy-corbyn-laid-the-foundations-for-peace-in-northern-ireland-is-total-fantasy/

    Surely the Tories have something lined up about this - it seems to me they are leaving it late to go big. Perhaps it will be left to Andrew Neil to hammer it home

    Corbyn will be fine when he gets Brilloed,
    Hes the last to go
    Many will be bored of listening to politicians each night
    And
    Its a Friday of a holiday weekend so many will be down the pub/firing up the bbq/ding anything but listening to Jezz


    The weekend weather is going to be scorching in much of the country. Sunday could see the record broken for the hottest May day on record (32.8c I believe) although odds against. Record or no record it's looking hot from Thursday onwards so as you say very few people are going to be watching politicians on the telly on Friday night.
    Living in a Yorkshire village, my hot weather memories are of walking past pubs, all of which seemingly had sash windows, the top part being opened, and a load of overweight males in string vests, with hair and body fat poking through in an unfortunate manner, forcing lager into every orifice they can find in an effort to keep cool in a room made increasingly hot by large sweaty bodies..

    I am reminded of Denis Howell, who was at times minister for drought. minister for rain, and minister for snow. He did his bit during the drought by sharing baths with his wife, I recall.

    Ironically 33c is not anywhere near record breaking here, but is a typical day between May and October.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    edited May 2017
    Re: Polls. If the Conservatives are 45% and above on polling day frankly Labour can have 33% all day long, its still a clear loss.

    Still think, and have done since the day this election was called, that the Conservatives will do well at 35-40 majority on current boundaries.

    As for the Lib Dems, without doubt the story of this election and not for good reasons.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    edited May 2017
    nunu said:

    oh dear, is Gary showing the first signs....
    I wonder if he would prefer taxes on the rich to be increased instead.
  • bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    Tim_B said:

    bobajobPB said:

    Even Corbyn's side know what his downfall will be. Labour members may not care but the general public will

    http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/08/07/the-idea-that-jeremy-corbyn-laid-the-foundations-for-peace-in-northern-ireland-is-total-fantasy/

    Surely the Tories have something lined up about this - it seems to me they are leaving it late to go big. Perhaps it will be left to Andrew Neil to hammer it home

    Corbyn will be fine when he gets Brilloed,
    Hes the last to go
    Many will be bored of listening to politicians each night
    And
    Its a Friday of a holiday weekend so many will be down the pub/firing up the bbq/ding anything but listening to Jezz


    The weekend weather is going to be scorching in much of the country. Sunday could see the record broken for the hottest May day on record (32.8c I believe) although odds against. Record or no record it's looking hot from Thursday onwards so as you say very few people are going to be watching politicians on the telly on Friday night.
    Living in a Yorkshire village, my hot weather memories are of walking past pubs, all of which seemingly had sash windows, the top part being opened, and a load of overweight males in string vests, with hair and body fat poking through in an unfortunate manner, forcing lager into every orifice they can find in an effort to keep cool in a room made increasingly hot by large sweaty bodies..

    I am reminded of Denis Howell, who was at times minister for drought. minister for rain, and minister for snow. He did his bit during the drought by sharing baths with his wife, I recall.

    Ironically 33c is not anywhere near record breaking here, but is a typical day between May and October.
    Shows how lucky we are here for temps like that to be the exception. We have a very benign climate, albeit one which has the potential to deliver very hot and very cold weather, from time to time. Managing the heat in the southern United States is a big, expensive, job. Working in 30c+ is awful. I loathe business trips to hot countries in the summer.
  • bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    Yorkcity said:

    bobajobPB said:

    Yorkcity said:

    murali_s said:

    PB Tories: Why the worry? You lot are going to win, maybe even win big. Yes, your leader is totoally hapless and quite frankly a bit sh*t, but Labour's leader is even worse.

    Labour are not winning this election!! Can you f*cking relax now!

    Yes what is wrong with them.They call a snap election which they will win easily .They have a strong and stable leader who they adore.They have Brexit sown up .What the fuck else do they want ?
    I have been pondering exactly this. I think was must be underlying it all is the creeping realisation that May is just a bit rubbish. Nothing much else makes sense. Tory majority of 95.
    Similar to the Labour snap election of 1966 .They lost the following one in 70.
    Indeed that could prove a prescient reverse analogy, if Labour sort out the leadership.
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613
    Scott_P said:
    Why the Mail chose to have that story with a picture of the Queen and Mary Berry....

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    Y0kel said:

    Re: Polls. If the Conservatives are 45% and above on polling day frankly Labour can have 33% all day long, its still a clear loss.

    Still think, and have done since the day this election was called, that the Conservatives will do well at 35-40 majority on current boundaries.

    As for the Lib Dems, without doubt the story of this election and not for good reasons.

    The transgender poster problem was impressive.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Floater said:

    reports of explosion in manchester

    Police telling people to stay away, but don't seem to be evacuating the area. Hopefully it's something mundane.
    footage of screaming from inside arena - could be just panic though.

    Neighbour across road reports bang that shook her flat.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    Tim_B said:

    bobajobPB said:

    Even Corbyn's side know what his downfall will be. Labour members may not care but the general public will

    http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/08/07/the-idea-that-jeremy-corbyn-laid-the-foundations-for-peace-in-northern-ireland-is-total-fantasy/

    Surely the Tories have something lined up about this - it seems to me they are leaving it late to go big. Perhaps it will be left to Andrew Neil to hammer it home

    Corbyn will be fine when he gets Brilloed,
    Hes the last to go
    Many will be bored of listening to politicians each night
    And
    Its a Friday of a holiday weekend so many will be down the pub/firing up the bbq/ding anything but listening to Jezz


    The weekend weather is going to be scorching in much of the country. Sunday could see the record broken for the hottest May day on record (32.8c I believe) although odds against. Record or no record it's looking hot from Thursday onwards so as you say very few people are going to be watching politicians on the telly on Friday night.
    Living in a Yorkshire village, my hot weather memories are of walking past pubs, all of which seemingly had sash windows, the top part being opened, and a load of overweight males in string vests, with hair and body fat poking through in an unfortunate manner, forcing lager into every orifice they can find in an effort to keep cool in a room made increasingly hot by large sweaty bodies..

    I am reminded of Denis Howell, who was at times minister for drought. minister for rain, and minister for snow. He did his bit during the drought by sharing baths with his wife, I recall.

    Ironically 33c is not anywhere near record breaking here, but is a typical day between May and October.
    Lager ???

    In a Yorkshire village pub ???
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Train lines are blocked as well (venue over station it seems)
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    Floater said:

    Floater said:

    reports of explosion in manchester

    Police telling people to stay away, but don't seem to be evacuating the area. Hopefully it's something mundane.
    footage of screaming from inside arena - could be just panic though.

    Neighbour across road reports bang that shook her flat.
    Hoping it a speaker going pop and nothing worse...
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    oh - on the politics side - well, that's strong and stable blown as a tag line then.

  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Floater said:

    Floater said:

    reports of explosion in manchester

    Police telling people to stay away, but don't seem to be evacuating the area. Hopefully it's something mundane.
    footage of screaming from inside arena - could be just panic though.

    Neighbour across road reports bang that shook her flat.
    Hoping it a speaker going pop and nothing worse...
    Yep - fingers crossed
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Tim_B said:

    Cyan said:

    As Theresa May goes into meltdown, there are are two past analogies that are striking. One is the 1970 General Election, when some opinion polls were giving Harold Wilson, who ran a highly controlled, almost complacent campaign, a double digit lead over Heath right up to election day. The other is 1945, when there was a widespread presumption that Churchill would easily triumph. Attlee himself said on the eve of polling that the Tories would have a majority of more than 70. Yet the electorate warmed to Labour's commitment to mass nationalisation, taxpayer-funded healthcare . wealth redistribution and a vast expansion in social housing.

    And let's hope they vote similarly in 2017, even if Labour's proposed redistribution of wealth this time is so miniscule.

    I was thinking of Winston Churchill today. Imagine if in 1945 Labour had reminded people of things he'd said 30 years before, prefiguring the current Tory targeting of Jeremy Corbyn.

    From 1919:

    "I cannot understand this squeamishness about the use of gas. I am strongly in favour of using poisoned gas against uncivilised tribes."

    From only eight years before, in 1937:

    "I do not admit for instance, that a great wrong has been done to the Red Indians of America or the black people of Australia. I do not admit that a wrong has been done to these people by the fact that a stronger race, a higher-grade race, a more worldly wise race to put it that way, has come in and taken their place."

    Then there was the famine in Bengal only two years before, in which millions were killed because of deliberate British inaction.

    And there are still rentaturd academics around who try to justify his choices.

    At least there was opposition to awarding him the Nobel Peace Prize, when people noticed it wouldn't look good to confuse war with peace.
    He won the Nobel for Literature.
    1919 the context puts it beyond doubt he was talking about tear gas, 1937 he was speaking about a fait accompli (not accompli by him), and judging by the ethnicity of almost everyone with money and or power in the us and Australia it looks as if his views were shared by everyone concerned (except the black and red people, obviously​). Bengal there was a war on.
  • OUTOUT Posts: 569

    Floater said:

    Floater said:

    reports of explosion in manchester

    Police telling people to stay away, but don't seem to be evacuating the area. Hopefully it's something mundane.
    footage of screaming from inside arena - could be just panic though.

    Neighbour across road reports bang that shook her flat.
    Hoping it a speaker going pop and nothing worse...
    Transformer at the rail line?
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    The general narrative seems that those who go into care will have "only" £100k left. But take an example with a house worth £300k, say that care costs are £100k , wouldn't the estate retain £200k?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Manchester bomb thing looks nasty.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Tim_B said:

    bobajobPB said:

    Even Corbyn's side know what his downfall will be. Labour members may not care but the general public will

    http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/08/07/the-idea-that-jeremy-corbyn-laid-the-foundations-for-peace-in-northern-ireland-is-total-fantasy/

    Surely the Tories have something lined up about this - it seems to me they are leaving it late to go big. Perhaps it will be left to Andrew Neil to hammer it home

    Corbyn will be fine when he gets Brilloed,
    Hes the last to go
    Many will be bored of listening to politicians each night
    And
    Its a Friday of a holiday weekend so many will be down the pub/firing up the bbq/ding anything but listening to Jezz


    The weekend weather is going to be scorching in much of the country. Sunday could see the record broken for the hottest May day on record (32.8c I believe) although odds against. Record or no record it's looking hot from Thursday onwards so as you say very few people are going to be watching politicians on the telly on Friday night.
    Living in a Yorkshire village, my hot weather memories are of walking past pubs, all of which seemingly had sash windows, the top part being opened, and a load of overweight males in string vests, with hair and body fat poking through in an unfortunate manner, forcing lager into every orifice they can find in an effort to keep cool in a room made increasingly hot by large sweaty bodies..

    I am reminded of Denis Howell, who was at times minister for drought. minister for rain, and minister for snow. He did his bit during the drought by sharing baths with his wife, I recall.

    Ironically 33c is not anywhere near record breaking here, but is a typical day between May and October.
    Lager ???

    In a Yorkshire village pub ???
    It's an extreme situation - all bets are off. John Smiths is owned by heineken anyway :-(

    But just love me some of that Sam Smiths - my local liquor store carries about 4-5 Sam Smiths products.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Penddu said:


    And expect Labours only gain across the UK in Gower as local voters regret their decision last time...

    I reckon Byron will get back in with an increased majority. His seat has 2015 Nuneaton written all over it.
    I think Byron is helped by UKIP standing. UKIP take votes from the northern industrial part of the constituency.
    Ynys Mons Plaid; Gower Labour could happen, I'm betting against it though !
    I think you are wrong about Ynys Mon.

    If the Labour vote had collapsed, then the Tories would take it -- courtesy of Labour voters who prefer to see a Tory than Plaid.

    Also, the PC candidate is the former MP/AM for Ynys Mon and Former Deputy First Minister of Wales (Ieuan Wyn Jones). He’ll have a personal vote, and can call in favours.
    Hmm looking back at the Welsh Assembly votes I can't see any evidence of a personal vote for Ieuan Wyn Jones whatsoever. The majority substantially increased when Rhun ap Iorwerth ran..

    Similiarly neither Alistair Carmichael nor Dennis Skinner has a personal vote when you examine the previous histories of Orkney and Bolsover.

    I'm prepared to take a gamble on Labour there at between 10 and 12 to 1 anyway.
    I’d say that when Ieuan held the seat as an MP (87-97), he never failed to get at least 15k

    Albert Owen has never mustered more than about 12k.

    Still, if Albert Owen holds it, it will be a fine triumph for him.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    TGOHF said:

    Manchester bomb thing looks nasty.

    Not sure we know it's a bomb yet do we?

    Hoping that it's just a bang that spooked people.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    And ..

    Ex-IRA killer says Jeremy Corbyn’s solidarity ‘encouraged’ vicious campaign of violence and without his support te…
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    The thing that intrigues me about this election campaign is a complete absence in the advocating of policies that are underpinned by "sound money". Labour seem to have a new spending pledge each day as do the Lib Dems. Will the media add it all up and cost the spending pledges? I do think the Tories made a huge mistake calling this election. They thought the media was going to attack Labour for them and instead they are exposing Tory deficiencies. That said, Labour will get a big tub of shit tipped over them before polling day, it is the way the media work. They are a law to themselves. Interestingly, I don't remember in 1997 the media rounding on Tony Blair and asking difficult questions in the same way as they have gone after May. Maybe Blair was better at the game than May? In 1997 Labour got a free pass, something team may probably thought they were going to get given the opponent.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    BBC reporting two loud bangs at Manchester Arena. Police telling people to stay away. It's an "incident".
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,883
    TGOHF said:

    Manchester bomb thing looks nasty.

    Very handy for May. She'll get to wheel out her Servalan act.
  • valleyboyvalleyboy Posts: 605
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Penddu said:


    And expect Labours only gain across the UK in Gower as local voters regret their decision last time...

    I reckon Byron will get back in with an increased majority. His seat has 2015 Nuneaton written all over it.
    I think Byron is helped by UKIP standing. UKIP take votes from the northern industrial part of the constituency.
    Ynys Mons Plaid; Gower Labour could happen, I'm betting against it though !
    I think you are wrong about Ynys Mon.

    If the Labour vote had collapsed, then the Tories would take it -- courtesy of Labour voters who prefer to see a Tory than Plaid.

    Also, the PC candidate is the former MP/AM for Ynys Mon and Former Deputy First Minister of Wales (Ieuan Wyn Jones). He’ll have a personal vote, and can call in favours.
    Hmm looking back at the Welsh Assembly votes I can't see any evidence of a personal vote for Ieuan Wyn Jones whatsoever. The majority substantially increased when Rhun ap Iorwerth ran..

    Similiarly neither Alistair Carmichael nor Dennis Skinner has a personal vote when you examine the previous histories of Orkney and Bolsover.

    I'm prepared to take a gamble on Labour there at between 10 and 12 to 1 anyway.
    Ynys Mon is,fascinating. Plaid vote is a bit shaky at the moment and Labour have a habit of hanging on there. Tories must be in with a shout though. Really haven't a clue. On the other hand had a small wager on Lab in Gower.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Dura_Ace said:

    TGOHF said:

    Manchester bomb thing looks nasty.

    Very handy for May. She'll get to wheel out her Servalan act.
    Can we just wait and see before we worry about the politics.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    Tim_B said:

    BBC reporting two loud bangs at Manchester Arena. Police telling people to stay away. It's an "incident".

    Atheist Jeremy Corbyn praying to God it is nothing to do with the 'RA......
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    Dura_Ace said:

    TGOHF said:

    Manchester bomb thing looks nasty.

    Very handy for May. She'll get to wheel out her Servalan act.
    All class.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    shit, reports of numbers of ambulances turning up.

    Injuries could be caused in the panic so lets not leap to conclusions.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261
    My sister is a Sergeant at GMP and is working tonight. My aunt and cousin are at the concert, both ok that's all we know.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    jonny83 said:

    My sister is a Sergeant at GMP and is working tonight. My aunt and cousin are at the concert, both ok that's all we know.

    Thank god they ok
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    perdix said:

    The general narrative seems that those who go into care will have "only" £100k left. But take an example with a house worth £300k, say that care costs are £100k , wouldn't the estate retain £200k?

    Indeed - correct - May hasn't been helped by some of the reporting.

    You obviously only pay your actual care costs. If your home is worth £300k / £400k / £500k it's very rare that you are only going to be left with £100k.

    And the really big bills are for residential care which you pay for under the current system anyway.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    scotslass said:

    rcs1000 Posts: 18,176
    10:53PM

    In fact the sitting MP in Edinburgh West has not been charged with anything. I suggest you get your post down pronto before Mike does it for you - otherwise no 18,176 might be your last.

    You are correct, and I apologise.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    Might be at the tmetro train station not the actual arena hall. Seen a nasty picture but sadly who knows if genuine or some sick poster.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Police say "serious incident" fuck
  • jonny83 said:

    My sister is a Sergeant at GMP and is working tonight. My aunt and cousin are at the concert, both ok that's all we know.

    Glad your people are OK. GMP now calling 'serious incident', but still limited details.
    Got Allan Beswick on Radio Manc, which is calm reporting. Sky News are just dredging Twitter.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059

    Tim_B said:

    BBC reporting two loud bangs at Manchester Arena. Police telling people to stay away. It's an "incident".

    Atheist Jeremy Corbyn praying to God it is nothing to do with the 'RA......
    Not a good post.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,972
    edited May 2017

    Might be at the tmetro train station not the actual arena hall. Seen a nasty picture but sadly who knows if genuine or some sick poster.

    The train/tram station is built into the Arena. It's one of the main exits/entrances for the gigs.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    rcs1000 said:

    scotslass said:

    rcs1000 Posts: 18,176
    10:53PM

    In fact the sitting MP in Edinburgh West has not been charged with anything. I suggest you get your post down pronto before Mike does it for you - otherwise no 18,176 might be your last.

    You are correct, and I apologise.
    Mr S - Do you still have your place on L.I.? I'm off to Shelter Island sometime during next week so I'll wave as I pass!
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,176
    I'm currently in Rochdale Infirmary's urgent care centre awaiting being seen with a slight ailment. We've all been told that we're unlikely to be seen tonight due to the Arena incident and an imminent influx of casualties for treatment. Sounds bad then....
  • Might be at the tmetro train station not the actual arena hall. Seen a nasty picture but sadly who knows if genuine or some sick poster.

    Whilst some of the Arena entrances are inside Victoria station, that picture is a fake.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    I'm currently in Rochdale Infirmary's urgent care centre awaiting being seen with a slight ailment. We've all been told that we're unlikely to be seen tonight due to the Arena incident and an imminent influx of casualties for treatment. Sounds bad then....

    Fuck fuck fuck

  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Tim_B said:

    BBC reporting two loud bangs at Manchester Arena. Police telling people to stay away. It's an "incident".

    Atheist Jeremy Corbyn praying to God it is nothing to do with the 'RA......
    Not a good post.
    No it really wasn't
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    There is no clear incident reporting on this thing at Manchester Arena so far. None, so ffs wait.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Tim_B said:

    BBC reporting two loud bangs at Manchester Arena. Police telling people to stay away. It's an "incident".

    Atheist Jeremy Corbyn praying to God it is nothing to do with the 'RA......
    Colour me sceptical that the IRA would be choosing an Ariana Grande concert as a target....
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Someone phoning into BBC News from the scene saying he saw someone "covered with blood".
This discussion has been closed.