The manifesto was unpopular, but to criticise it as uncosted when the labour one was appreciably worse in that regard is pretty lame.
Actually it is the other way round. Labour's manifesto is far better costed than the Conservative one. McDonnell seemed quite taken aback when he saw the Conservatives hadn't bothered.
Have you seen the IFS analysis of both by any chance?
Labour's costings involves some "assumptions" shall we say.
But manifestos in general always do.
Their tax take assumptions are optimistic, at best.
That's one word for it.
I can't believe the Tories didn't give it a try. But they must have judged that questions about the balancing number marked 'stealth taxes' were more risky than not releasing the costings at all.
We can see in Alistairs chart why May changed her mind - a sudden sharp rise in the weeks leading up to the announcement. May sensed blood in the water. And has been made to look foolish. While still going to win, though, so it's a bit odd.
The raw scatter chart of poll leads looks way scarier for Conservatives.
And does anyone member of the public actually remember a single thing from the Tory manifesto other than Winter Fuel and Dementia Tax? I doubt it.
What an own goal.
Interesting that if you take out the hump when the snap election was initially called, you aren't that far off a gradually downward trending straight line.
Edit/ or possibly I am assuming the x-axis is days when it isn't? Nevertheless the peak after 30 thru 35 is what stands out, rather than the post-maninfesto drop.
With an uptick at the end. Where do we go next? That is the question.
The x-axis is just number of samples, it isn't correctly spaced for time - as I said it is quick and dirty.
The starting point is when May called the election. The trends and the manifesto effect is even clearer on a 10 poll lag
Once again this is just by number of polls, it's not correctly time spaced.
Looks pretty bad, but I guess us down to labour rising more than anything else. Still shocks me every time I say it. Modest rise, seemed likely, 10 point rise? Very impressive.
Could be normality beginning to reassert itself after the referendum?
Christ almighty!!! I don't have much confidence in May/ Rudd, but I simply don't understand how anyone can countenance her as Home Secretary. For this reason, though I will probably need the requisite nose-peg and surgical gloves, at the age of 53 I will be voting Tory on June 8 for the first (and I hope only) time in my life.
Except that your interest costs go up because investors will want a default risk premium because you may just unilaterally repudiate your commitments in future.
And the cost of big investments such as the Super Sewer will be on balance sheet do over time will be skimped on
I see Labour's campaign and the Tories should be CRUSHING them on all levels. And yet that fucking dreadful Tory manifesto has probably completely changed what the outcome should have been.
Can't wait to find out who had what input in that manifesto.
Christ almighty!!! I don't have much confidence in May/ Rudd, but I simply don't understand how anyone can countenance her as Home Secretary. For this reason, though I will probably need the requisite nose-peg and surgical gloves, at the age of 53 I will be voting Tory on June 8 for the first (and I hope only) time in my life.
@PickardJE: Several real-world friends have asked me this weekend about the Corbyn/IRA issue. A common refrain: why didn't we know about this before?
Heads in a bucket?
In all seriousness, I know as political wonks we'd know it, but the Tories have been promising to raise this stuff for so long I'm not clear on if they have or not, and I don't know how to judge how shocking it is peopke don't know.
Christ almighty!!! I don't have much confidence in May/ Rudd, but I simply don't understand how anyone can countenance her as Home Secretary. For this reason, though I will probably need the requisite nose-peg and surgical gloves, at the age of 53 I will be voting Tory on June 8 for the first (and I hope only) time in my life.
The raw scatter chart of poll leads looks way scarier for Conservatives.
And does anyone member of the public actually remember a single thing from the Tory manifesto other than Winter Fuel and Dementia Tax? I doubt it.
What an own goal.
Interesting that if you take out the hump when the snap election was initially called, you aren't that far off a gradually downward trending straight line.
Edit/ or possibly I am assuming the x-axis is days when it isn't? Nevertheless the peak after 30 thru 35 is what stands out, rather than the post-maninfesto drop.
With an uptick at the end. Where do we go next? That is the question.
The x-axis is just number of samples, it isn't correctly spaced for time - as I said it is quick and dirty.
The starting point is when May called the election. The trends and the manifesto effect is even clearer on a 10 poll lag
Once again this is just by number of polls, it's not correctly time spaced.
Looks pretty bad, but I guess us down to labour rising more than anything else. Still shocks me every time I say it. Modest rise, seemed likely, 10 point rise? Very impressive.
Partly down to the LibDems vacating the field of battle though....
You mean Labour have let Abbott out again? Are they getting a bit worried that they might actually win?
Marr billing it as who is to be trusted on UK security.
Just back from Canada with bad dose of jet lag.
Went with BA premium class - very poor food and service levels reluctant - arrived home thursday pm and just so sorry for all those flying BA this weekend.
BA are in a mess
IAG, BA's owner, made record profits in the first-quarter of this year, however chief executive Willie Walsh has to be careful that his cost-cutting on food, service (and clearly computers) does not compromise quality too much. It has also launched a new low-cost long haul airline, Level http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39815659
@PickardJE: Several real-world friends have asked me this weekend about the Corbyn/IRA issue. A common refrain: why didn't we know about this before?
Heads in a bucket?
In all seriousness, I know as political wonks we'd know it, but the Tories have been promising to raise this stuff for so long I'm not clear on if they have or not, and I don't know how to judge how shocking it is peopke don't know.
The worry is that young voters see pics of MPs and the Queen w McGuinness etc and think they're cuddly Irishmen who drink the black stuff and bet w Paddy Power. The fact they were the Salman Abedi's of the 70s 80s 90s should be rammed home
NAT SINKING FEELING Shock poll shows SNP at three-year low with 32 MPs ‘at risk’ as General Election race tightens
Surveymonkey? Is this a proper weighted poll? It looks like it but I am not sure. Maybe just too good to be true from my perspective.
Not sure how they get 39%:29%:25% translating to only 24 seats...
Seems very unlikely doesn't it? But it would be possible if there was strong and efficient tactical voting by Unionists across different parts of the country.
One success that the SNP has had which has largely gone unremarked is the disengagement of the Scottish election from the UK one. The issue up here is independence and almost nothing else. Corbyn and May both seem peripheral. It is all about Nicola, Ruth and Kezia (who is having a much better campaign than I expected).
Slightly unfair. Ruth & her buds have managed to insert devolved policy making into a Westminster election at every turn, not to forget the heartbreaking work of staggering genius that is preserving winter fuel payments for Scotch crumblies.
I don't see how I could be being unfair in giving the SNP a compliment. Scottish politics is disengaging from rUK, partly for the reasons you have said. When the majority of the decisions that people actually care about are made at Holyrood it is inevitable that these issues will be debated in the campaign even if MPs have increasingly little say on the matters being argued about. As a Unionist I find it a concern but an inevitable consequence of a high level of devolution.
Indyref2 has of course exacerbated the trend this time around, possibly not to the advantage of the SNP in the way that Nicola hoped.
I meant unfair on the monotony or otherwise of the ishoos in Scotland (I promise I am entirely weaned off seeking compliments for the SNP in general let alone in a place like this). In fact apart from bellowing 'No To A Second Referendum' and 'Nope, not even gonna talk about the possibility', there's been no debate on independence. Though it's difficult when most of the media is uninterested, I think its a failure by the SNP not keep the argument about immigration, trade, energy, foreign & industrial policy etc, all seen through the prism of Brexit of course. We're reduced to the position of the Scottish 'moment' being about how much the SNP government pays nurses (more than the Tory government does), though I note the Yoonetariat has moved pretty swiftly on from portraying the food bank nurse as a heroine when some awkward fact arose.
Iain Dale @IainDale Jeremy Corbyn just confirmed on @Peston that Diane Abbott would definitely be Home Secretary in a Labour government.
I suppose he has to say that. Personally I have no confidence in her.
Suspect Corbyn doesn't have much either to be honest. She's basically been promoted to shadow home secretary because other colleagues kept resigning and there was no one loyal left!
NAT SINKING FEELING Shock poll shows SNP at three-year low with 32 MPs ‘at risk’ as General Election race tightens
It's part of the Survey Monkey poll.
I'm not going to read too much into it.
17 Scottish Tory MPs, 12 SLab MPs, SNP down to 24 MPs.
I'm filing that in the Angus Reid folder.
Me, I'm not greedy, I'd be happy if the snp reduced to the 40s, very happy if it was mid 40s, and if they dipped into the thirties? Wonderful times.
Would help Corbyn get close to 200 seats or above though.
32 seats at risk though, I cannot credit that.
If 32 SNP seats are at risk, May could fail to make a net gain of more than 10 Labour seats in England and Wales and still have a majority comfortably over 50 thanks to Scotland
If 32 SNP seats are at risk then my seriously dodgy 10/1 on them missing out on a seat majority might come off.
I think that might be wishful thinking. Still, a man can dream.
I'm still going back and forth and voting Tory for the first time. I don't want to vote negatively, but my deep concern over corbynite labour doing well means I probably should vote Tory, and I appreciated them taking on their own vote to be realistic. But may is not great,and the campaign has been crap.
However similar applies to the LDs. Bad campaign, failure to take on Corbyn or may, but manifesto wasn't terrible in places. I do know the candidate vaguely too, good, hard working local. But do they deserve my vote?
You mean Labour have let Abbott out again? Are they getting a bit worried that they might actually win?
Marr billing it as who is to be trusted on UK security.
Just back from Canada with bad dose of jet lag.
Went with BA premium class - very poor food and service levels reluctant - arrived home thursday pm and just so sorry for all those flying BA this weekend.
BA are in a mess
IAG, BA's owner, made record profits in the first-quarter of this year, however chief executive Willie Walsh has to be careful that his cost-cutting on food, service (and clearly computers) does not compromise quality too much. It has also launched a new low-cost long haul airline, Level http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39815659
BA's offer has declined markedly over recent years. They are still better than the American carriers, but are mid-table, not Champions League.
NAT SINKING FEELING Shock poll shows SNP at three-year low with 32 MPs ‘at risk’ as General Election race tightens
Surveymonkey? Is this a proper weighted poll? It looks like it but I am not sure. Maybe just too good to be true from my perspective.
Not sure how they get 39%:29%:25% translating to only 24 seats...
Seems very unlikely doesn't it? But it would be possible if there was strong and efficient tactical voting by Unionists across different parts of the country.
One success that the SNP has had which has largely gone unremarked is the disengagement of the Scottish election from the UK one. The issue up here is independence and almost nothing else. Corbyn and May both seem peripheral. It is all about Nicola, Ruth and Kezia (who is having a much better campaign than I expected).
Slightly unfair. Ruth & her buds have managed to insert devolved policy making into a Westminster election at every turn, not to forget the heartbreaking work of staggering genius that is preserving winter fuel payments for Scotch crumblies.
I don't see how I could be being unfair in giving the SNP a compliment. Scottish politics is disengaging from rUK, partly for the reasons you have said. As a Unionist I find it a concern but an inevitable consequence of a high level of devolution.
Indyref2 has of course exacerbated the trend this time around, possibly not to the advantage of the SNP in the way that Nicola hoped.
I meant unfair on the monotony or otherwise of the ishoos in Scotland (I promise I am entirely weaned off seeking compliments for the SNP in general let alone in a place like this). In fact apart from bellowing 'No To A Second Referendum' and 'Nope, not even gonna talk about the possibility', there's been no debate on independence. Though it's difficult when most of the media is uninterested, I think its a failure by the SNP not keep the argument about immigration, trade, energy, foreign & industrial policy etc, all seen through the prism of Brexit of course. We're reduced to the position of the Scottish 'moment' being about how much the SNP government pays nurses (more than the Tory government does), though I note the Yoonetariat has moved pretty swiftly on from portraying the food bank nurse as a heroine when some awkward fact arose.
They must have done as I cannot recall what that awkward fact was - what was it?
Tories have peaked too early in Scotland. The battle for Labour voters in seats where the Tories are serious challengers to the SNP will compare this persuaders:
Vote Tory to stop a second independence referendum (would it??) versus Vote SNP to stop a Tory Government (do you want as a Labour supporter to have given the Tories another seat, possibly critical to their majority??)
I believe enough people will be persuaded by the second argument as Corbyn cannot any longer be totally written off.
For me the main winners of this argument will be evidenced by whether the Tories or the SNP win the SNP held seats of Aberdeen South and Perth and North Perthshire (rather than the Border seats, for example, where Tories can probably win without too much anti-SNP tactical voting)..
@MrHarryCole: In 1985 Diane Abbott said of her time at the Home Office: "I was just one token black person in a fundamentally racist institution."
Ability will out, Diane.
Diane Abbott is herself fundamentally racist. She has said " Whites love to play divide and rule " but sent her son to a largely white private school so he'd avoid the black thugs that plague her local state schools.
The Tory Facebbok ads are not to win over new believers, they wont. It is to make sure you target and keep on board every single person of the 43-46% of people who say they will vote Tory. Obama campaigners saw how this worked twice. Including in 2012 when unemployment was a high 8% and he had a 4% loss of white voters but still won. How? He *increased* the already high black turnout from 2008 with targetted ad's and engagement. In other words the engagement got his base out and that is the aim of these ads.
Tories get 46% on election day and they will have a comfortable majority.
Tories have peaked too early in Scotland. The battle for Labour voters in seats where the Tories are serious challengers to the SNP will compare this persuaders:
Vote Tory to stop a second independence referendum (would it??) versus Vote SNP to stop a Tory Government (do you want as a Labour supporter to have given the Tories another seat, possibly critical to their majority??)
I believe enough people will be persuaded by the second argument as Corbyn cannot any longer be totally written off.
For me the main winners of this argument will be evidenced by whether the Tories or the SNP win the SNP held seats of Aberdeen South and Perth and North Perthshire (rather than the Border seats, for example, where Tories can probably win without too much anti-SNP tactical voting)..
No, the Tories are now on a solid 25-30% and most of the seats they are targeting are in relatively posh areas of Scotland ie the Borders, Aberdeenshire, Edinburgh, Perth, Moray etc where there are fewer Labour voters and those that are more likely to vote tactically Tory to stop the SNP. Labour voters who prefer the SNP to the Tories are concentrated in Glasgow and the Central Belt where the Tories have no chance under FPTP anyway and the SNP will hold on
Labour were actually in second in Aberdeen South and Edinburgh South but again those voters are more anti independence than anti Tory, Edinburgh voted 61% No in 2014 compared to 55% across Scotland as a whole, Aberdeen 59% No
I'm still going back and forth and voting Tory for the first time. I don't want to vote negatively, but my deep concern over corbynite labour doing well means I probably should vote Tory, and I appreciated them taking on their own vote to be realistic. But may is not great,and the campaign has been crap.
However similar applies to the LDs. Bad campaign, failure to take on Corbyn or may, but manifesto wasn't terrible in places. I do know the candidate vaguely too, good, hard working local. But do they deserve my vote?
That would probably have been enough in my case for me to go LD. But in ECA the LD candidate is truly dreadful. There are three candidates and the Tory is the only one I could possibly vote for.
I'm still going back and forth and voting Tory for the first time. I don't want to vote negatively, but my deep concern over corbynite labour doing well means I probably should vote Tory, and I appreciated them taking on their own vote to be realistic. But may is not great,and the campaign has been crap.
However similar applies to the LDs. Bad campaign, failure to take on Corbyn or may, but manifesto wasn't terrible in places. I do know the candidate vaguely too, good, hard working local. But do they deserve my vote?
I think you're right to be concerned, this election is ALOT more serious than 2015. I was intensely relaxed about the prospect of an Ed Miliband government - not Corbyn.
Christ almighty!!! I don't have much confidence in May/ Rudd, but I simply don't understand how anyone can countenance her as Home Secretary. For this reason, though I will probably need the requisite nose-peg and surgical gloves, at the age of 53 I will be voting Tory on June 8 for the first (and I hope only) time in my life.
Christ almighty!!! I don't have much confidence in May/ Rudd, but I simply don't understand how anyone can countenance her as Home Secretary. For this reason, though I will probably need the requisite nose-peg and surgical gloves, at the age of 53 I will be voting Tory on June 8 for the first (and I hope only) time in my life.
Excellent! Which constituency may I ask?
Ealing Central and Acton
ah...next door to me....(Ealing North).
Don't think even Corbyn and Abbott could contrive to lose that one!
NAT SINKING FEELING Shock poll shows SNP at three-year low with 32 MPs ‘at risk’ as General Election race tightens
It's part of the Survey Monkey poll.
I'm not going to read too much into it.
17 Scottish Tory MPs, 12 SLab MPs, SNP down to 24 MPs.
I'm filing that in the Angus Reid folder.
Me, I'm not greedy, I'd be happy if the snp reduced to the 40s, very happy if it was mid 40s, and if they dipped into the thirties? Wonderful times.
Would help Corbyn get close to 200 seats or above though.
32 seats at risk though, I cannot credit that.
If 32 SNP seats are at risk, May could fail to make a net gain of more than 10 Labour seats in England and Wales and still have a majority comfortably over 50 thanks to Scotland
They must have done as I cannot recall what that awkward fact was - what was it?
Zero proof that she had ever used a food bank and zero proof that as a nurse she earned less than the average wage (c.£25k) let alone close to the 'living' wage. I'll not bother with her various aspirational efforts on social media, except to say that it's nice to see Tories accepting the principle that while folk may want some of the modestly nice things in life (whether they be a 50" TV & a case of Stella, or fizz in the Plaza & dressage lessons for the sprog), circumstances may occasionally push them to using a food bank.
You mean Labour have let Abbott out again? Are they getting a bit worried that they might actually win?
Marr billing it as who is to be trusted on UK security.
Just back from Canada with bad dose of jet lag.
Went with BA premium class - very poor food and service levels reluctant - arrived home thursday pm and just so sorry for all those flying BA this weekend.
BA are in a mess
IAG, BA's owner, made record profits in the first-quarter of this year, however chief executive Willie Walsh has to be careful that his cost-cutting on food, service (and clearly computers) does not compromise quality too much. It has also launched a new low-cost long haul airline, Level http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39815659
BA's offer has declined markedly over recent years. They are still better than the American carriers, but are mid-table, not Champions League.
Indeed, Walsh clearly wants BA to be a lower cost middle rank player than a high quality but more costly and expensive premium band
Do any polling companies ask the recipients 'on a scale of 0/10 how interested are you in politics?', or similar questions that may filter out the over engaged?
That's an interesting point.
I've just been VI'd this morning by YouGov and they asked the usual "how likely are you to vote". I picked "10/certain" which will I assume value my choice higher than a VI coupled with "0/Very unlikely"
In the case of your question I'd filter all my responses weighted up for 8/9. Anyone who gave "10/Obsessed" I think that I'd actively disregard from my sample!
I'm guessing Marty was definitely, definitely NOT a terrorist at this point.
You mean Boris was only laughing and joking with a former terrorist?
But really, doesn't this illustrate the stupidity of posting a photo of two people together at an unknown date in an unexplained context, as thought it's some kind of knock-down argument? It simply invites retaliation with photos of Paisley and McGuinness as the Chuckle Brothers, the Queen meeting McGuiness and so on. How many of the people who are familiar mainly with McGuinness's recent career are going to appreciate the difference, if it's not explicitly stated?
Christ almighty!!! I don't have much confidence in May/ Rudd, but I simply don't understand how anyone can countenance her as Home Secretary. For this reason, though I will probably need the requisite nose-peg and surgical gloves, at the age of 53 I will be voting Tory on June 8 for the first (and I hope only) time in my life.
Excellent! Which constituency may I ask?
Ealing Central and Acton
ah...next door to me....(Ealing North).
Don't think even Corbyn and Abbott could contrive to lose that one!
No it's safe as houses for Steve Pound. But atleast your vote will matter since that is a tight marginal. Still voting Tory tho in hopes Labour vote share goes below 30%, how dare they put this cabinet before us! Seriously, what are they thinking?
NAT SINKING FEELING Shock poll shows SNP at three-year low with 32 MPs ‘at risk’ as General Election race tightens
It's part of the Survey Monkey poll.
I'm not going to read too much into it.
17 Scottish Tory MPs, 12 SLab MPs, SNP down to 24 MPs.
I'm filing that in the Angus Reid folder.
Me, I'm not greedy, I'd be happy if the snp reduced to the 40s, very happy if it was mid 40s, and if they dipped into the thirties? Wonderful times.
Would help Corbyn get close to 200 seats or above though.
32 seats at risk though, I cannot credit that.
If 32 SNP seats are at risk, May could fail to make a net gain of more than 10 Labour seats in England and Wales and still have a majority comfortably over 50 thanks to Scotland
If 32 SNP seats are at risk then my seriously dodgy 10/1 on them missing out on a seat majority might come off.
I think that might be wishful thinking. Still, a man can dream.
Certainly and Davidson has Sturgeon on the back foot, though I can's see the SNP getting less than 45 myself, they will lose barely any seats in Glasgow and Dundee and the Central Belt, the big swings against them will be in the borders and rural Scotland, Edinburgh and Aberdeen
I think the government has benefitted from its competent response to Manchester bombing. Without it, I think we'd have seen poll leads of 0-10%, rather than 6-14%.
I think that's right, and people over-reacted to the first YouGov. Equally, there is an element of chicken-counting going on as Tories breathe a sigh of relief. The current clutch of polls were all taken after several days of Mrs May being Prime Ministerial and nobody else getting a look-in. That's not a complaint - it had to be like that, but it's a fact. The first YouGov made us think that had almost completely misfired for some reason, with only a modest rallying from last weekend. In reality, it's steadied the Tory ship quite signficantly.
But. First, we won't see another 11 days without rival argument, and the effect will wear off to some extent. Second, the polls can be separated into the two that weight to 2015 turnout (ICM and ComRes, I believe) and the others. The former show leads of 14 and 11, the latter leads of 6 and 8.
I think ICM is fighting the last war and turnout this time will have a different pattern, but that might of course be wrong. It's possible that the press and Facebook anti-Corbyn blitz will widen the lead, and it's possible that it will prove as ineffective as trials of it up to now have been. In short, we're now at Advantage Con, but it's too soon to be sure.
I can't think of anything Theresa May has done right on Brexit so far.
She unequivocally accepted the referendum result and committed to implementing it.
Those are platitudes. I'm taking about actual implementation and ensuring the best possible result consistent with the Leave vote. She has done nothing right so far and plenty that is wrong, as I have listed.
I'm still going back and forth and voting Tory for the first time. I don't want to vote negatively, but my deep concern over corbynite labour doing well means I probably should vote Tory, and I appreciated them taking on their own vote to be realistic. But may is not great,and the campaign has been crap.
However similar applies to the LDs. Bad campaign, failure to take on Corbyn or may, but manifesto wasn't terrible in places. I do know the candidate vaguely too, good, hard working local. But do they deserve my vote?
I think you're right to be concerned, this election is ALOT more serious than 2015. I was intensely relaxed about the prospect of an Ed Miliband government - not Corbyn.
I think we're in more 'time for a change' territory this time than in 2015. However Corbyn's weaknesses should see the Tories through. The irony is that a decent showing from Corbyn would presumably keep him safe from replacement and the best chance of a leftist government in decades (under someone else) would be lost.
On Perth and North Perthshire you are missing the point that for a couple of decades natural Labour supporters have already been voting SNP to keep the Tories out.
The Tories will be very unlikely to defeat a 10K SNP majority on a straight SNP to Tory swing (particularly as this is not a significant fishing constituency).
On Aberdeen South (even though you don't seem to realise it, you are really agreeing with my analysis about what will decide the issue) it will indeed be decided by whether ant-SNP is a bigger motivator than ant-Tory.
Except that your interest costs go up because investors will want a default risk premium because you may just unilaterally repudiate your commitments in future.
And the cost of big investments such as the Super Sewer will be on balance sheet do over time will be skimped on
When was the last time the UK defaulted?
On debt I think it may be never (or at least post Parliamentary government) - but certainly a long time ago
But "default risk" is just a term for the risk premium than investors demand over 10 year Treasuries which are officially viewed as "risk free". It isn't limited to just the risk of default.
I'm still going back and forth and voting Tory for the first time. I don't want to vote negatively, but my deep concern over corbynite labour doing well means I probably should vote Tory, and I appreciated them taking on their own vote to be realistic. But may is not great,and the campaign has been crap.
However similar applies to the LDs. Bad campaign, failure to take on Corbyn or may, but manifesto wasn't terrible in places. I do know the candidate vaguely too, good, hard working local. But do they deserve my vote?
I think you're right to be concerned, this election is ALOT more serious than 2015. I was intensely relaxed about the prospect of an Ed Miliband government - not Corbyn.
I think we're in more 'time for a change' territory this time than in 2015. However Corbyn's weaknesses should see the Tories through. The irony is that a decent showing from Corbyn would presumably keep him safe from replacement and the best chance of a leftist government in decades (under someone else) would be lost.
Yep. I'm not intrinsically opposed to things like renationalisation and the like, and Ed M would probably have been like most PMs - a bit crappy, with some good bits - but Corbyn?
The time for a change thing does seem to be more potent now though. I thought it would get Ed M over the line, but was proven very wrong.
I'm still going back and forth and voting Tory for the first time. I don't want to vote negatively, but my deep concern over corbynite labour doing well means I probably should vote Tory, and I appreciated them taking on their own vote to be realistic. But may is not great,and the campaign has been crap.
However similar applies to the LDs. Bad campaign, failure to take on Corbyn or may, but manifesto wasn't terrible in places. I do know the candidate vaguely too, good, hard working local. But do they deserve my vote?
I think you're right to be concerned, this election is ALOT more serious than 2015. I was intensely relaxed about the prospect of an Ed Miliband government - not Corbyn.
Which constituency are you in, Mr Kle? No point at all in just boosting the total number of Labour votes, unless in your constituency they are gong to boot the sitting Tory out. The received wisdom on PB is that Labour are not going to make any gains at all.
NAT SINKING FEELING Shock poll shows SNP at three-year low with 32 MPs ‘at risk’ as General Election race tightens
It's part of the Survey Monkey poll.
I'm not going to read too much into it.
17 Scottish Tory MPs, 12 SLab MPs, SNP down to 24 MPs.
I'm filing that in the Angus Reid folder.
Me, I'm not greedy, I'd be happy if the snp reduced to the 40s, very happy if it was mid 40s, and if they dipped into the thirties? Wonderful times.
Would help Corbyn get close to 200 seats or above though.
32 seats at risk though, I cannot credit that.
If 32 SNP seats are at risk, May could fail to make a net gain of more than 10 Labour seats in England and Wales and still have a majority comfortably over 50 thanks to Scotland
If 32 SNP seats are at risk then my seriously dodgy 10/1 on them missing out on a seat majority might come off.
I think that might be wishful thinking. Still, a man can dream.
Certainly and Davidson has Sturgeon on the back foot, though I can's see the SNP getting less than 45 myself, they will lose barely any seats in Glasgow and Dundee and the Central Belt, the big swings against them will be in the borders and rural Scotland, Edinburgh and Aberdeen
If Corbyn is serious he will drop Abbott and McDonnell. It's one thing having your own baggage, but you don't need to carry other people's.
I think it might just be a little too late in the day for that...
Morning GIN
Morning Malc.
What do you make of reports Re, SNP losing half their seats?
The Sun on Sunday claim to have based this projection by putting vote Shares of SNP 39, Con 29, Lab 25 into some online calculator. I can't find any online GE calculator that turns these shares into SNP only getting 24 seats. Which makes one wonder, given that the projected seats are suspiciously proportional to projected votes, that they haven't accidentally plugged them into some online proportional votes calculator - perhaps one used for Holyrood or the Local elections?
You mean Labour have let Abbott out again? Are they getting a bit worried that they might actually win?
Marr billing it as who is to be trusted on UK security.
Just back from Canada with bad dose of jet lag.
Went with BA premium class - very poor food and service levels reluctant - arrived home thursday pm and just so sorry for all those flying BA this weekend.
BA are in a mess
IAG, BA's owner, made record profits in the first-quarter of this year, however chief executive Willie Walsh has to be careful that his cost-cutting on food, service (and clearly computers) does not compromise quality too much. It has also launched a new low-cost long haul airline, Level http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39815659
BA's offer has declined markedly over recent years. They are still better than the American carriers, but are mid-table, not Champions League.
American getting reasonably good on long haul - last Delta flight the worst experience of my flying career.
I'm still going back and forth and voting Tory for the first time. I don't want to vote negatively, but my deep concern over corbynite labour doing well means I probably should vote Tory, and I appreciated them taking on their own vote to be realistic. But may is not great,and the campaign has been crap.
However similar applies to the LDs. Bad campaign, failure to take on Corbyn or may, but manifesto wasn't terrible in places. I do know the candidate vaguely too, good, hard working local. But do they deserve my vote?
Labour deserve to be badly punished for offering up the lying old dog Corbyn, the attack dog McDonnell and the dog's breakfast Abbott. These people are W-A-Y outside an acceptable offering to those who buy into the best of democratic ideals. Let's be brutally honest here - their credentials as democrats are open to question. Labour's top triumvirate are apologists for those who could not win through the ballot box so bomb, murder and terrorize to impose their beliefs onto others.
Their economic offering is superficially attractive - to those who don't think for a moment about how it would be delivered, and the damage that delivery would cause. The people who would suffer are the very people they claim to be standing up for. And we know this to be true, because every Labour Govt. leaves office with less people in employment than they inherited. But Corbyn's attempts at a grand Socialist Experiment - when bolted on to the already significant challenges of Brexit - risks millions of jobs and the continuing prosperity of millions more.
Labour need to lose badly to ensure the British people are never offered the option of red-in-tooth-and-claw Socialism ever again.
The obvious solution to this problem is to resurrect the national ID card scheme, which would compel people to carry the things (the quid pro quo being that they would have to be issued free of charge, because poorer people would struggle to pay for them.) You can see how such a solution would appeal to a securocrat like May - but on the other hand it would be very expensive to implement and administer, highly controversial, and, moreover, it isn't in the Tory manifesto.
Or you go half way. Here in the Philippines if you want to vote you are required to get a Voters ID. These are issued by the local version of the Electoral Commission. There is no requirement to carry them except to vote, although you can chose to as they count as a valid government ID in the same way as a driving license does. Just because you have a government ID, there is nothing that says it has to be linked to any sort of national database, even although there will be a strong temptation for control freak governments.
Yougov has the Tories winning 8% of 2015 Labour voters and Labour winning 8% of 2015 Tory voters. The Tories are winning 23% of 2015 LDs and the LDs winning 6% of 2015 Tories. Labour are winning 19% of 2015 LDs and the LDs winning 6% of 2015 Labour voters. 56% of 2015 UKIP voters have gone to the Tories and 15% to Labour.
My guess is a majority of 100-190. On TSE's scale that gives her the abiity to rule as she thinks fit. So a flavour what to expect.
1. She thinks nothing of gratuitously insulting our ex partners in the EU.
2. She'll re introduce grammar schools and bring back selection in education
3. She'll bring back fox hunting
4. She chose to send vans around areas of London with plackards telling immigrants to 'go home'
5. She will court and sell arms to the most destabilising and misogynist country in the world
A lot to look forward to....
May's support is predicated on Corbyn's leadership of the Labour party. That much is now clear. But she will be entering her delivery phase having failed to cement the strong and stable, mother of the nation narrative she was aiming for. That will make the next five years extremely challenging for her whatever majority she gets. Like you, I am expecting it to be pretty big, if not huge.
A serious question SO. As a "Labour without Corbyn" supporter, what is your actual opinion of the Labour manifesto? Do you think the manifesto and Corbyn are all part of the same package, and therefore you wouldn't expect it to be put forward by a "better leader", or do you think it is actually an election winning package (when properly scrutinised)?
But you don't think that, in the event of a sizeable Conservative victory, and of a sane Labour Party concluding that Corbyn was actually the problem (which is still far from certain), that there isn't a danger that the obvious flaws in the manifesto as a serious progamme for Government will be overlooked?
I don't know. But if it is a sane Labour party (and that could well be different to an electorally successful one) the flaws in the current manifesto will not be overlooked.
I don't see nationalisation per se to be ridiculous at all. Most people opposed thr privatisation of the energy and water industries - as well as British Rail and the Royal Mail. There is a certain logic in seeking to reverse a policy decision believed to be contrary to the national interest.
I'm still going back and forth and voting Tory for the first time. I don't want to vote negatively, but my deep concern over corbynite labour doing well means I probably should vote Tory, and I appreciated them taking on their own vote to be realistic. But may is not great,and the campaign has been crap.
However similar applies to the LDs. Bad campaign, failure to take on Corbyn or may, but manifesto wasn't terrible in places. I do know the candidate vaguely too, good, hard working local. But do they deserve my vote?
I think you're right to be concerned, this election is ALOT more serious than 2015. I was intensely relaxed about the prospect of an Ed Miliband government - not Corbyn.
Which constituency are you in, Mr Kle? No point at all in just boosting the total number of Labour votes, unless in your constituency they are gong to boot the sitting Tory out. The received wisdom on PB is that Labour are not going to make any gains at all.
Oh I'm not voting Labour under Corbyn even if I'd consider it at other times. But it is a very safe seat, South West Wiltshire - over 50% Tory, UKIP second last time but not standing this time, LDs pushed to fourth last time.
Will probably be a bad result on June 8th - local areas within the constituency which are usually solidly LD went Tory at the locals despite what I know to be no effort from the Tories in certain parts.
It comes down more to the principle. The LD manifesto was the best presented even though I disagree with some big policies in it, but overall the campaign has not encouraged me to give them my vote at all. The Tory offer being, to my mind, more willing to tell some hard truths encouraged me, but May and co have done a pretty poor job of appearing competent. So given the outcome in my seat is a foregone conclusion, it's just about adding, ina minute way, to the vote share total nationally.
Which is more damaging to the country - five years of Jeremy Corbyn or decades of car crash Brexit?
The answer isn't obvious.
If the latter is happening, then despite whatever intentions they might have I don't see that a Corbyn government could prevent it occuring in any case.
They must have done as I cannot recall what that awkward fact was - what was it?
Zero proof that she had ever used a food bank and zero proof that as a nurse she earned less than the average wage (c.£25k) let alone close to the 'living' wage. I'll not bother with her various aspirational efforts on social media, except to say that it's nice to see Tories accepting the principle that while folk may want some of the modestly nice things in life (whether they be a 50" TV & a case of Stella, or fizz in the Plaza & dressage lessons for the sprog), circumstances may occasionally push them to using a food bank.
Yougov has the Tories winning 8% of 2015 Labour voters and Labour winning 8% of 2015 Tory voters. The Tories are winning 23% of 2015 LDs and the LDs winning 6% of 2015 Tories. Labour are winning 19% of 2015 LDs and the LDs winning 6% of 2015 Labour voters. 56% of 2015 UKIP voters have gone to the Tories and 15% to Labour.
The raw scatter chart of poll leads looks way scarier for Conservatives.
And does anyone member of the public actually remember a single thing from the Tory manifesto other than Winter Fuel and Dementia Tax? I doubt it.
What an own goal.
Interesting that if you take out the hump when the snap election was initially called, you aren't that far off a gradually downward trending straight line.
Edit/ or possibly I am assuming the x-axis is days when it isn't? Nevertheless the peak after 30 thru 35 is what stands out, rather than the post-maninfesto drop.
With an uptick at the end. Where do we go next? That is the question.
The x-axis is just number of samples, it isn't correctly spaced for time - as I said it is quick and dirty.
The starting point is when May called the election. The trends and the manifesto effect is even clearer on a 10 poll lag
NAT SINKING FEELING Shock poll shows SNP at three-year low with 32 MPs ‘at risk’ as General Election race tightens
It's part of the Survey Monkey poll.
I'm not going to read too much into it.
17 Scottish Tory MPs, 12 SLab MPs, SNP down to 24 MPs.
I'm filing that in the Angus Reid folder.
Me, I'm not greedy, I'd be happy if the snp reduced to the 40s, very happy if it was mid 40s, and if they dipped into the thirties? Wonderful times.
Would help Corbyn get close to 200 seats or above though.
32 seats at risk though, I cannot credit that.
If 32 SNP seats are at risk, May could fail to make a net gain of more than 10 Labour seats in England and Wales and still have a majority comfortably over 50 thanks to Scotland
If 32 SNP seats are at risk then my seriously dodgy 10/1 on them missing out on a seat majority might come off.
I think that might be wishful thinking. Still, a man can dream.
Certainly and Davidson has Sturgeon on the back foot, though I can's see the SNP getting less than 45 myself, they will lose barely any seats in Glasgow and Dundee and the Central Belt, the big swings against them will be in the borders and rural Scotland, Edinburgh and Aberdeen
Is Davidson more strong and more stable than May?
Take a much stronger wind to blow her over versus May
Yougov has the Tories winning 8% of 2015 Labour voters and Labour winning 8% of 2015 Tory voters. The Tories are winning 23% of 2015 LDs and the LDs winning 6% of 2015 Tories. Labour are winning 19% of 2015 LDs and the LDs winning 6% of 2015 Labour voters. 56% of 2015 UKIP voters have gone to the Tories and 15% to Labour.
Who are those 8% of 2015 Tory voters going Labour??? If there is one suspect number in their findings, it has to be that one. "Yeah, I really liked that Toff Corbyn, but the vicar's daughter puts me right off, so I'm voting for the old Trot...."
From Toff to Trot is some political journey. I can imagine a few making it. But 8%???
Which is more damaging to the country - five years of Jeremy Corbyn or decades of car crash Brexit?
The answer isn't obvious.
If the latter is happening, then despite whatever intentions they might have I don't see that a Corbyn government could prevent it occuring in any case.
That's true. Brexit and Corbyn would be a both/and of badness, not an either/or. However I challenge people who think a Corbyn premiership is unimaginable. The consequences of Brexit are probably worse because Corbyn could change or be changed. The consequences of Brexit are largely baked in. If you don't think there are bad consequences to Brexit, there is no reason to fear Corbyn either. The impulses to both are similar.
NAT SINKING FEELING Shock poll shows SNP at three-year low with 32 MPs ‘at risk’ as General Election race tightens
It's part of the Survey Monkey poll.
I'm not going to read too much into it.
17 Scottish Tory MPs, 12 SLab MPs, SNP down to 24 MPs.
I'm filing that in the Angus Reid folder.
Me, I'm not greedy, I'd be happy if the snp reduced to the 40s, very happy if it was mid 40s, and if they dipped into the thirties? Wonderful times.
Would help Corbyn get close to 200 seats or above though.
32 seats at risk though, I cannot credit that.
If 32 SNP seats are at risk, May could fail to make a net gain of more than 10 Labour seats in England and Wales and still have a majority comfortably over 50 thanks to Scotland
If 32 SNP seats are at risk then my seriously dodgy 10/1 on them missing out on a seat majority might come off.
I think that might be wishful thinking. Still, a man can dream.
Certainly and Davidson has Sturgeon on the back foot, though I can's see the SNP getting less than 45 myself, they will lose barely any seats in Glasgow and Dundee and the Central Belt, the big swings against them will be in the borders and rural Scotland, Edinburgh and Aberdeen
Is Davidson more strong and more stable than May?
Take a much stronger wind to blow her over versus May
Are you suggesting the Blessed Ruth is a Weeble?
Weebles wobble - but they don't fall down. Sounds more apt for the Blessed Theresa!
Which is more damaging to the country - five years of Jeremy Corbyn or decades of car crash Brexit?
The answer isn't obvious.
Corbyn would be a disaster on so many fronts, not least for the future credibility of his own party. Car crash Brexit is equally likely under Labour as it is under the Conservatives.
Much hilarity has been generated here by Diane Abbott, but was Sir Michael Fallon always this inept? Thinking Peston as well as Guru Murthy.
Comments
http://www.stylist.co.uk/beauty/diane-abbott-on-making-a-political-statement-or-not-with-her-hair-shadow-secretary-for-state-labour So when she dies she'll be back being an enemy of the British state...
(Except the hairdo)
But peopke should clarify where they have changed, and nothing wrong with being put on the spot to confirm that.
Corbyn for one does get very politiciany on Ireland - much more weasel words and spin than usual.
Just as well that they weren't hanged.
Jeremy Corbyn just confirmed on @Peston that Diane Abbott would definitely be Home Secretary in a Labour government.
All labour MPs, that's what you are campaigning for.diane Abbott as Home Secretary.
Can't wait to find out who had what input in that manifesto.
In all seriousness, I know as political wonks we'd know it, but the Tories have been promising to raise this stuff for so long I'm not clear on if they have or not, and I don't know how to judge how shocking it is peopke don't know.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39815659
Suspect Corbyn doesn't have much either to be honest. She's basically been promoted to shadow home secretary because other colleagues kept resigning and there was no one loyal left!
I think that might be wishful thinking. Still, a man can dream.
However similar applies to the LDs. Bad campaign, failure to take on Corbyn or may, but manifesto wasn't terrible in places. I do know the candidate vaguely too, good, hard working local. But do they deserve my vote?
Tories have peaked too early in Scotland. The battle for Labour voters in seats where the Tories are serious challengers to the SNP will compare this persuaders:
Vote Tory to stop a second independence referendum (would it??)
versus
Vote SNP to stop a Tory Government (do you want as a Labour supporter to have given the Tories another seat, possibly critical to their majority??)
I believe enough people will be persuaded by the second argument as Corbyn cannot any longer be totally written off.
For me the main winners of this argument will be evidenced by whether the Tories or the SNP win the SNP held seats of Aberdeen South and Perth and North Perthshire (rather than the Border seats, for example, where Tories can probably win without too much anti-SNP tactical voting)..
https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/868620250664890368
Tories get 46% on election day and they will have a comfortable majority.
At the last election for instance Labour got just 8% in Perth and North Perthshire compared to 24% Scotland wide
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perth_and_North_Perthshire_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
In Moray Labour got 9%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moray_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
Labour were actually in second in Aberdeen South and Edinburgh South but again those voters are more anti independence than anti Tory, Edinburgh voted 61% No in 2014 compared to 55% across Scotland as a whole, Aberdeen 59% No
I've just been VI'd this morning by YouGov and they asked the usual "how likely are you to vote". I picked "10/certain" which will I assume value my choice higher than a VI coupled with "0/Very unlikely"
In the case of your question I'd filter all my responses weighted up for 8/9. Anyone who gave "10/Obsessed" I think that I'd actively disregard from my sample!
http://www.stylist.co.uk/beauty/diane-abbott-on-making-a-political-statement-or-not-with-her-hair-shadow-secretary-for-state-labour
But really, doesn't this illustrate the stupidity of posting a photo of two people together at an unknown date in an unexplained context, as thought it's some kind of knock-down argument? It simply invites retaliation with photos of Paisley and McGuinness as the Chuckle Brothers, the Queen meeting McGuiness and so on. How many of the people who are familiar mainly with McGuinness's recent career are going to appreciate the difference, if it's not explicitly stated?
But. First, we won't see another 11 days without rival argument, and the effect will wear off to some extent. Second, the polls can be separated into the two that weight to 2015 turnout (ICM and ComRes, I believe) and the others. The former show leads of 14 and 11, the latter leads of 6 and 8.
I think ICM is fighting the last war and turnout this time will have a different pattern, but that might of course be wrong. It's possible that the press and Facebook anti-Corbyn blitz will widen the lead, and it's possible that it will prove as ineffective as trials of it up to now have been. In short, we're now at Advantage Con, but it's too soon to be sure.
On Perth and North Perthshire you are missing the point that for a couple of decades natural Labour supporters have already been voting SNP to keep the Tories out.
The Tories will be very unlikely to defeat a 10K SNP majority on a straight SNP to Tory swing (particularly as this is not a significant fishing constituency).
On Aberdeen South (even though you don't seem to realise it, you are really agreeing with my analysis about what will decide the issue) it will indeed be decided by whether ant-SNP is a bigger motivator than ant-Tory.
What do you make of reports Re, SNP losing half their seats?
But "default risk" is just a term for the risk premium than investors demand over 10 year Treasuries which are officially viewed as "risk free". It isn't limited to just the risk of default.
The time for a change thing does seem to be more potent now though. I thought it would get Ed M over the line, but was proven very wrong.
London
Con 38
Lab 44
LD 13
UKIP 3
South
Con 50
Lab 25
LD 16
UKIP 5
Midlands and Wales
Con 46
Lab 42
LD 4
UKIP 5
North
Con 38
Lab 49
LD 7
UKIP 5
Scotland
Con 30
SNP 40
LD 4
UKIP 0
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/l2akbktir9/SundayTimesResults_170526_VI_W.pdf
Their economic offering is superficially attractive - to those who don't think for a moment about how it would be delivered, and the damage that delivery would cause. The people who would suffer are the very people they claim to be standing up for. And we know this to be true, because every Labour Govt. leaves office with less people in employment than they inherited. But Corbyn's attempts at a grand Socialist Experiment - when bolted on to the already significant challenges of Brexit - risks millions of jobs and the continuing prosperity of millions more.
Labour need to lose badly to ensure the British people are never offered the option of red-in-tooth-and-claw Socialism ever again.
51% of 2016 EU referendum Remain voters are voting Labour, 24% Tory and 15% LD, 64% of referendum Leave voters are voting Tory, 20% Labour and 8% UKIP
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/l2akbktir9/SundayTimesResults_170526_VI_W.pdf
The answer isn't obvious.
Will probably be a bad result on June 8th - local areas within the constituency which are usually solidly LD went Tory at the locals despite what I know to be no effort from the Tories in certain parts.
It comes down more to the principle. The LD manifesto was the best presented even though I disagree with some big policies in it, but overall the campaign has not encouraged me to give them my vote at all. The Tory offer being, to my mind, more willing to tell some hard truths encouraged me, but May and co have done a pretty poor job of appearing competent. So given the outcome in my seat is a foregone conclusion, it's just about adding, ina minute way, to the vote share total nationally.
There is an Indy too.
From Toff to Trot is some political journey. I can imagine a few making it. But 8%???
Weebles wobble - but they don't fall down. Sounds more apt for the Blessed Theresa!
Much hilarity has been generated here by Diane Abbott, but was Sir Michael Fallon always this inept? Thinking Peston as well as Guru Murthy.