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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The size of her majority will determine the sort of PM Theresa

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  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    JonWC said:

    Charles said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Charles said:


    Except that your interest costs go up because investors will want a default risk premium because you may just unilaterally repudiate your commitments in future.

    And the cost of big investments such as the Super Sewer will be on balance sheet do over time will be skimped on

    When was the last time the UK defaulted?
    On debt I think it may be never (or at least post Parliamentary government) - but certainly a long time ago

    But "default risk" is just a term for the risk premium than investors demand over 10 year Treasuries which are officially viewed as "risk free". It isn't limited to just the risk of default.
    I don't think that is quite right.. default risk on a sterling instrument would be assessed with respect to the gilt of comparable maturity which is assumed risk free in a certain sense. You've got to take account of interest rate expectations in the issuing currency.

    That said you can buy CDS (default insurance) on both UK and US sovereign debt and the cost of doing so is definitely not zero. That is even true of triple A rated countries.
    For corporate, yes. But sovereign debt is marked as a premium to US Treasuries to give the 10 year "UK risk free rate". Corporate default risk and duration risk are then overlaid to price the instrument.

    Fundamentally all I am saying is that unilateral nationalisationnwill rssult in the attractivess of UK government going down and hence the cost of borrowing going up
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009
    AndyJS said:

    Chris said:

    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    But it is a very safe seat, South West Wiltshire - over 50% Tory, UKIP second last time but not standing this time, LDs pushed to fourth last time.

    Well seeing as the seat is very very safe Tory, go with your "heart"; the calculation would be different if you were in a marginal.
    My heart is like my gut - unreliable and vacillating.
    Write "Farron out" in the Lib Dem box. Keep it entirely within the box.
    Writing Farron out within the box will be regarded as a spolit vote since it is not a vote in favour of anyone.
    I've seen votes accepted where there was a mark in the Labour box, but the voter had crossed out the candidates name and written 'Aneurin Bevan'.
    Please reassure me that by writing "None of them" diagonally across all the candidates' names I have safely spoiled my ballot!
    I wouldn't risk doing it that way. The best way to spoil your ballot paper is by putting a cross in the box for every candidate. If you leave it blank there's always a risk someone at the count will sneakily put a mark in the box for one of the candidates while everyone is distracted by something else.
    You just can't win. :-(
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    Mortimer said:

    isam said:

    Marvellous to see various PB Tories accept the power of redemption as embodied in late period Martin McGuinness. I'm sure they'll join with me in deploring the various goons on here hoping that he'd burn in hell after his recent shuffling off the stage.

    I won't although I'm not a PB Tory

    There is a difference though between actively supporting terrorists while they're killing people, and meeting them after a peace deal has been made.

    How do you move from one to the other except through dialogue?

    Can you let me know a) what compromises you think Corbyn should make to ISIS and b) how he practically ought to start dialogue? Thanks.
    Who's talking about ISIS?
    Most of Britain. Corbyn's approach to the IRA in the 80s is why he cannot be trusted to defend Britain against other terrorist groups and indeed states who mean us harm.

    If the left cannot see that then they're more blinkered than I thought....
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    isam said:

    Marvellous to see various PB Tories accept the power of redemption as embodied in late period Martin McGuinness. I'm sure they'll join with me in deploring the various goons on here hoping that he'd burn in hell after his recent shuffling off the stage.

    I won't although I'm not a PB Tory

    There is a difference though between actively supporting terrorists while they're killing people, and meeting them after a peace deal has been made.

    You trying to say the Tory government did not meet them from 80's onwards, they just did it in secret and lied about it. Corbyn's crime was that he was not scared to have his talks in public rather than being a craven coward lying about it.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,087

    I'm guessing Marty was definitely, definitely NOT a terrorist at this point.

    https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/868620250664890368

    Given that's a Boris Bus (built in NI) in the background, which makes the photo 2013 or so, then that is a picture of the Mayor of London, Transport Secretary and NI Deputy First Minister.
    How many people did the IRA murder in 2013 - compared with 1983?
    And did McGuinness metamorphose from the commander of the Derry IRA to NI Deputy First Minister through dialogue or by banning his voice and having his words spoken by an actor?
    He did it aiui by him and Adams allowing the terrorists in the organisation to fight themselves to a standstill such that the negotiation line they wished to pursue would be feasible within the IRA.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    calum said:

    Something to give those hoping for a Scottish labia surge pause for thought.

    'Scottish Labour accused of 'giving up' in General Election contests after internal leak

    SCOTTISH Labour has been accused of “giving up” in General Election contests after leaked data revealed the number of voters contacted by the party has plummeted by over 80 per cent.
    ...In total, the number of contacts fell from 71,179 in the equivalent week at the 2015 general election, to 12,155.'

    http://tinyurl.com/y7hzoh57

    The bigger question is what the Hell were those 71,179 saying in 2015?

    At least now they are admitting they have nothing to say.
    Not what SLAB wanted to hear !
    They feel better now they are listening to themselves
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    justin124 said:

    DavidL said:

    If the utility companies were nationalised I think you could pretty much guarantee that within a very few years they would be making a loss rather than a profit with their services being subsidised out of the public purse which would still be straining to find the service charge of those bonds. It is a ridiculous idea.

    But British Gas was very profitable as a nationalised industry - as was Electricity and the Post Office.
    Yes , but the Tories could not get their hands on those proofits when state owned.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005
    malcolmg said:

    Davidson lying profusely on Daily Politics. Said "I do not accepot " that SNP won last election and that there is "NO" support for independce. What a pompous bag of wind. Nothing but lying and evasion.

    By last election - what do you mean? They certainly didn't win the 2016 Scottish election being a few seats short of a majority. As for independence it doesn't seem many Scots want another referendum at the moment - a clear pre-requisite for another vote - according to Nicola Sturgeon.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,748
    calum said:

    Something to give those hoping for a Scottish labia surge pause for thought.

    'Scottish Labour accused of 'giving up' in General Election contests after internal leak

    SCOTTISH Labour has been accused of “giving up” in General Election contests after leaked data revealed the number of voters contacted by the party has plummeted by over 80 per cent.
    ...In total, the number of contacts fell from 71,179 in the equivalent week at the 2015 general election, to 12,155.'

    http://tinyurl.com/y7hzoh57

    The bigger question is what the Hell were those 71,179 saying in 2015?

    At least now they are admitting they have nothing to say.
    Not what SLAB wanted to hear !
    & since it was most likely 'Eff off, you got intae bed wi the Tories', probably not what Tactical Ruth would want to hear either.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    scotslass said:

    Just watching Ruth Davidson being quizzed by Gordon Brewer. If she is the answer to the Tory campaign problems then it must be a very silly question.

    This lady has been shown as comprehensively incoherent. Compared to this interview Theresa May was a model of clarity with Andrew Neil.

    I see the Nat spin machine hasn't taken a weekend off...
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    malcolmg said:

    isam said:

    Marvellous to see various PB Tories accept the power of redemption as embodied in late period Martin McGuinness. I'm sure they'll join with me in deploring the various goons on here hoping that he'd burn in hell after his recent shuffling off the stage.

    I won't although I'm not a PB Tory

    There is a difference though between actively supporting terrorists while they're killing people, and meeting them after a peace deal has been made.

    You trying to say the Tory government did not meet them from 80's onwards, they just did it in secret and lied about it. Corbyn's crime was that he was not scared to have his talks in public rather than being a craven coward lying about it.
    Not really. Meeting them doesn't equal supporting them. Corbo, McDonnell and Abbott wanted them to win, whether that's a crime or not is subjective I suppose.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,585
    Sorry! Fecked up the quotation element of last post.

    Yes I am Vice President of IT at British Airways!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Willie Rennie always seems to be on farms - this time with Alpacas :D
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    FF43 said:

    If Corbyn is serious he will drop Abbott and McDonnell. It's one thing having your own baggage, but you don't need to carry other people's.

    I think it might just be a little too late in the day for that...
    Morning GIN
    Morning Malc. :smiley:

    What do you make of reports Re, SNP losing half their seats? :open_mouth:
    GIN, Uttter Tory bollox fantasy land
    That's what I thought... ;)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    scotslass said:

    Just watching Ruth Davidson being quizzed by Gordon Brewer. If she is the answer to the Tory campaign problems then it must be a very silly question.

    This lady has been shown as comprehensively incoherent. Compared to this interview Theresa May was a model of clarity with Andrew Neil.

    Davidson is having the best campaign of any leader in the UK, she is getting a far bigger swing to the Scottish Tories from the SNP than May is from Corbyn
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Sorry! Fecked up the quotation element of last post.

    Yes I am Vice President of IT at British Airways!

    I've never used British Airways and probably won't in the future after this fiasco.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    malcolmg said:

    Davidson lying profusely on Daily Politics. Said "I do not accepot " that SNP won last election and that there is "NO" support for independce. What a pompous bag of wind. Nothing but lying and evasion.

    By last election - what do you mean? They certainly didn't win the 2016 Scottish election being a few seats short of a majority. As for independence it doesn't seem many Scots want another referendum at the moment - a clear pre-requisite for another vote - according to Nicola Sturgeon.
    they won the last Scottish election in any way you count it , however we know Tories and their lack of democracy. The Scottish parliament voted by a majority to have another referendum. Tories used the jackboot anti-democracy card to deny it. Davidson openly stated that decomcracy in Scotland only applies if London Tories allow it.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    RobD said:

    Any news on Survation?

    Good question. The previous one had figures of Con 43, Lab 34, LD 8, UKIP 4, Green 2.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017#2017
    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/868778678485995521
    Thanks.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    Mortimer said:

    scotslass said:

    Just watching Ruth Davidson being quizzed by Gordon Brewer. If she is the answer to the Tory campaign problems then it must be a very silly question.

    This lady has been shown as comprehensively incoherent. Compared to this interview Theresa May was a model of clarity with Andrew Neil.

    I see the Nat spin machine hasn't taken a weekend off...
    LOL, irony meter went off scale as dim Tory comes up with whopper of the day
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,748
    edited May 2017
    Mortimer said:

    scotslass said:

    Just watching Ruth Davidson being quizzed by Gordon Brewer. If she is the answer to the Tory campaign problems then it must be a very silly question.

    This lady has been shown as comprehensively incoherent. Compared to this interview Theresa May was a model of clarity with Andrew Neil.

    I see the Nat spin machine hasn't taken a weekend off...
    Nor the 'Tessy is brillyunt and Jez is a dirty 'RA loving son of gun' brigade.
    Tons more of the latter on here of course.
    #echochamber
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    Pulpstar said:

    Willie Rennie always seems to be on farms - this time with Alpacas :D

    appropriate given the amount of manure he spouts
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    HYUFD said:

    scotslass said:

    Just watching Ruth Davidson being quizzed by Gordon Brewer. If she is the answer to the Tory campaign problems then it must be a very silly question.

    This lady has been shown as comprehensively incoherent. Compared to this interview Theresa May was a model of clarity with Andrew Neil.

    Davidson is having the best campaign of any leader in the UK, she is getting a far bigger swing to the Scottish Tories from the SNP than May is from Corbyn
    I can always rely on you to give me a belly laugh, best troll on the web never mind this site
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    malcolmg said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Willie Rennie always seems to be on farms - this time with Alpacas :D

    appropriate given the amount of manure he spouts
    Has Wee Jimmy decided whether or not this election is or isn't about independence yet :) ?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    justin124 said:

    DavidL said:

    If the utility companies were nationalised I think you could pretty much guarantee that within a very few years they would be making a loss rather than a profit with their services being subsidised out of the public purse which would still be straining to find the service charge of those bonds. It is a ridiculous idea.

    But British Gas was very profitable as a nationalised industry - as was Electricity and the Post Office.
    Exactly. And even if they weren't, choosing to run the Post Office at a loss as a social service sounds to me like a perfectly reasonable political choice. At the very least, you don't have to be a mad Marxist to advocate it.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Mortimer said:

    scotslass said:

    Just watching Ruth Davidson being quizzed by Gordon Brewer. If she is the answer to the Tory campaign problems then it must be a very silly question.

    This lady has been shown as comprehensively incoherent. Compared to this interview Theresa May was a model of clarity with Andrew Neil.

    I see the Nat spin machine hasn't taken a weekend off...
    Nor the 'Tessy is brillyunt and Jez is a dirty 'RA loving son of gun' brigade.
    Tons more of the latter on here of course.
    #echochamber
    To be fair, PB Tories are saying Tessy is crap too, just less crap than the others.

    This is where "none of the above" comes in.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    Pulpstar said:

    malcolmg said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Willie Rennie always seems to be on farms - this time with Alpacas :D

    appropriate given the amount of manure he spouts
    Has Wee Jimmy decided whether or not this election is or isn't about independence yet :) ?
    Matters not a jot when we are in a dictatorship. Saint Theresa has banned a refendum so irrelevant.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    HYUFD said:

    Which is more damaging to the country - five years of Jeremy Corbyn or decades of car crash Brexit?

    The answer isn't obvious.

    Corbyn, as he would still do Brexit and do economic damage on top. May with a majority of 50-100 might be more likely to compromise a little with the EU
    Do we have any evidence that the EU is remotely interested in a compromise.

    If we suppose for a moment that when it comes to it, only option on the table is F*ck-off-BrExit, something completely unacceptable that no leader would have chance of selling to the country, and that they are completely uninterested in having us back after all the hassles we have caused. Would you then prefer a government with a moderate majority, or one with a massive majority.
    Why shouldn't the EU be interested in a compromise? They presumably want us back in sooner rather than later. And I'd prefer a moderate majority since you're asking.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    Mortimer said:

    scotslass said:

    Just watching Ruth Davidson being quizzed by Gordon Brewer. If she is the answer to the Tory campaign problems then it must be a very silly question.

    This lady has been shown as comprehensively incoherent. Compared to this interview Theresa May was a model of clarity with Andrew Neil.

    I see the Nat spin machine hasn't taken a weekend off...
    Nor the 'Tessy is brillyunt and Jez is a dirty 'RA loving son of gun' brigade.
    Tons more of the latter on here of course.
    #echochamber
    To be fair, PB Tories are saying Tessy is crap too, just less crap than the others.

    This is where "none of the above" comes in.
    Bit of an exaggeration there, may be one or two wobbling but the majority of the fanboys are still dribbling excessively over the Supreme Leader
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Pulpstar said:

    Has Wee Jimmy decided whether or not this election is or isn't about independence yet :) ?

    Need to check her hairstyle today...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    Sorry! Fecked up the quotation element of last post.

    Yes I am Vice President of IT at British Airways!

    In which case you would be based in India, Walsh has increased BA's profits due to cost cutting but as I said earlier he needs to be careful he does not hit quality too much
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    scotslass said:

    Just watching Ruth Davidson being quizzed by Gordon Brewer. If she is the answer to the Tory campaign problems then it must be a very silly question.

    This lady has been shown as comprehensively incoherent. Compared to this interview Theresa May was a model of clarity with Andrew Neil.

    Davidson is having the best campaign of any leader in the UK, she is getting a far bigger swing to the Scottish Tories from the SNP than May is from Corbyn
    I can always rely on you to give me a belly laugh, best troll on the web never mind this site
    Wait until election night
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009
    isam said:

    malcolmg said:

    isam said:

    Marvellous to see various PB Tories accept the power of redemption as embodied in late period Martin McGuinness. I'm sure they'll join with me in deploring the various goons on here hoping that he'd burn in hell after his recent shuffling off the stage.

    I won't although I'm not a PB Tory

    There is a difference though between actively supporting terrorists while they're killing people, and meeting them after a peace deal has been made.

    You trying to say the Tory government did not meet them from 80's onwards, they just did it in secret and lied about it. Corbyn's crime was that he was not scared to have his talks in public rather than being a craven coward lying about it.
    Not really. Meeting them doesn't equal supporting them. Corbo, McDonnell and Abbott wanted them to win, whether that's a crime or not is subjective I suppose.
    What does "wanted them to win" mean, though? Wanted a united Ireland?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    Chris said:

    isam said:

    malcolmg said:

    isam said:

    Marvellous to see various PB Tories accept the power of redemption as embodied in late period Martin McGuinness. I'm sure they'll join with me in deploring the various goons on here hoping that he'd burn in hell after his recent shuffling off the stage.

    I won't although I'm not a PB Tory

    There is a difference though between actively supporting terrorists while they're killing people, and meeting them after a peace deal has been made.

    You trying to say the Tory government did not meet them from 80's onwards, they just did it in secret and lied about it. Corbyn's crime was that he was not scared to have his talks in public rather than being a craven coward lying about it.
    Not really. Meeting them doesn't equal supporting them. Corbo, McDonnell and Abbott wanted them to win, whether that's a crime or not is subjective I suppose.
    What does "wanted them to win" mean, though? Wanted a united Ireland?
    ...using the bullet and the bomb.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Important opinion poll coming in 10 days time. Self selecting mind, large sample.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited May 2017
    Scott_P said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Has Wee Jimmy decided whether or not this election is or isn't about independence yet :) ?

    Need to check her hairstyle today...
    Theresa has a new haircut too. A bit inverted chamberpot, perhaps in celebration of her manifesto.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    I'm guessing Marty was definitely, definitely NOT a terrorist at this point.

    https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/868620250664890368

    Given that's a Boris Bus (built in NI) in the background, which makes the photo 2013 or so, then that is a picture of the Mayor of London, Transport Secretary and NI Deputy First Minister.
    How many people did the IRA murder in 2013 - compared with 1983?
    And did McGuinness metamorphose from the commander of the Derry IRA to NI Deputy First Minister through dialogue or by banning his voice and having his words spoken by an actor?
    Or by losing the military campaign?
    Oh did we win then? I must have missed the victory celebrations.
    why would we celebrate 3600 pointless deaths ?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Pulpstar said:

    Important opinion poll coming in 10 days time. Self selecting mind, large sample.

    Very funny.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,748

    Mortimer said:

    scotslass said:

    Just watching Ruth Davidson being quizzed by Gordon Brewer. If she is the answer to the Tory campaign problems then it must be a very silly question.

    This lady has been shown as comprehensively incoherent. Compared to this interview Theresa May was a model of clarity with Andrew Neil.

    I see the Nat spin machine hasn't taken a weekend off...
    Nor the 'Tessy is brillyunt and Jez is a dirty 'RA loving son of gun' brigade.
    Tons more of the latter on here of course.
    #echochamber
    To be fair, PB Tories are saying Tessy is crap too, just less crap than the others.

    This is where "none of the above" comes in.
    Och, there's still quite a few with 'so far up her fundament there's an echo' syndrome. Before the great Brexit miscalculation most of them suffered the same condition with Dave, strangely enough.
  • Torby_FennelTorby_Fennel Posts: 438
    I feel so conflicted about my vote. :(

    I live in a tight midlands marginal (Con held, Lab facing) where the Lib Dems came 4th last time. I'm a Lib Dem who thinks that Farron is a totally useless idiot and I want to see him gone... but the local Lib Dem candidate is very impressive. Also there's a very good independent candidate standing who I could comfortably vote for too. Then I get worried that Corbyn might get in and have moments where I think I might vote for the Conservative candidate (who is not someone I like at all).

    I really don't know which way I'll jump. I'm torn about 49%/49% between the Lib Dem and the independent. 2% Conservative (but more when I see closer polls).
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009

    Chris said:

    isam said:

    malcolmg said:

    isam said:

    Marvellous to see various PB Tories accept the power of redemption as embodied in late period Martin McGuinness. I'm sure they'll join with me in deploring the various goons on here hoping that he'd burn in hell after his recent shuffling off the stage.

    I won't although I'm not a PB Tory

    There is a difference though between actively supporting terrorists while they're killing people, and meeting them after a peace deal has been made.

    You trying to say the Tory government did not meet them from 80's onwards, they just did it in secret and lied about it. Corbyn's crime was that he was not scared to have his talks in public rather than being a craven coward lying about it.
    Not really. Meeting them doesn't equal supporting them. Corbo, McDonnell and Abbott wanted them to win, whether that's a crime or not is subjective I suppose.
    What does "wanted them to win" mean, though? Wanted a united Ireland?
    ...using the bullet and the bomb.
    It's a bit difficult to interpret those words just tagged on after my question like that.

    Do you mean you think Corbyn actually wanted the bullet and the bomb to be used? That he preferred that to non-violent means?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Chris said:

    Do you mean you think Corbyn actually wanted the bullet and the bomb to be used? That he preferred that to non-violent means?

    https://twitter.com/shippersunbound/status/868773326977675265
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Next Labour leader:

    Yvette Cooper 4.8 / 5
    Keir Starmer 7.4 / 9.2
    Dan Jarvis 14 / 19
    Lisa Nandy 17 / 19
    Chuka Umanna 17 / 21
    Clive Lewis 13.5 / 22

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.120629096
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    edited May 2017
    IanB2 said:

    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/twitonatrain/status/868736881361645568

    The raw scatter chart of poll leads looks way scarier for Conservatives.

    And does anyone member of the public actually remember a single thing from the Tory manifesto other than Winter Fuel and Dementia Tax? I doubt it.

    What an own goal.
    Interesting that if you take out the hump when the snap election was initially called, you aren't that far off a gradually downward trending straight line.

    Edit/ or possibly I am assuming the x-axis is days when it isn't? Nevertheless the peak after 30 thru 35 is what stands out, rather than the post-maninfesto drop.
    And if you ignore the lead and concentrate on the vote share (which is/was OGH's mantra) it is impossible to see what the fuss is about, tories are where they have consistently been since last July. The significant change is the Labour surge. Is it solid? Highly highly doubtful. The tory terrorism attack ad is excellent, the Abbott hairstyle idiocy is even better.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,039
    AndyJS said:

    Next Labour leader:

    Yvette Cooper 4.8 / 5
    Keir Starmer 7.4 / 9.2
    Dan Jarvis 14 / 19
    Lisa Nandy 17 / 19
    Chuka Umanna 17 / 21
    Clive Lewis 13.5 / 22

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.120629096

    I am in deep on this market. But we could be waiting some time for any winnings.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    malcolmg said:

    calum said:
    Sophy announced Kezia as the "Scottish labia" leader and then hastily changed it to Labour. Strange thoughts during a political interview.
    Rather like the time I found myself asking for a cut and blow job from a hairdresser, but just managed to correct myself in time.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I wouldn't rule out Lab Gain Croydon Central personally.

    What about Gower?

    I think Byron will be fine personally. I know others have taken a different view - can't see Corbyn appealing there.
    Greens and TUSC standing aside this time.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    But it is a very safe seat, South West Wiltshire - over 50% Tory, UKIP second last time but not standing this time, LDs pushed to fourth last time.

    Well seeing as the seat is very very safe Tory, go with your "heart"; the calculation would be different if you were in a marginal.
    My heart is like my gut - unreliable and vacillating.
    Write "Farron out" in the Lib Dem box. Keep it entirely within the box.
    Writing Farron out within the box will be regarded as a spolit vote since it is not a vote in favour of anyone.
    It's a 'clear mark'
    Void for uncertainty of meaning. Famously drawing a picture of a prick has been deemed a valid vote - draw him instead ?? (Sorry)
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    Ishmael_Z said:

    IanB2 said:

    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/twitonatrain/status/868736881361645568

    The raw scatter chart of poll leads looks way scarier for Conservatives.

    And does anyone member of the public actually remember a single thing from the Tory manifesto other than Winter Fuel and Dementia Tax? I doubt it.

    What an own goal.
    Interesting that if you take out the hump when the snap election was initially called, you aren't that far off a gradually downward trending straight line.

    Edit/ or possibly I am assuming the x-axis is days when it isn't? Nevertheless the peak after 30 thru 35 is what stands out, rather than the post-maninfesto drop.
    And if you ignore the lead and concentrate on the vote share (which is/was OGH's mantra) it is impossible to see what the fuss is about, tories are where they have consistently been since last July. The significant change is the Labour surge. Is it solid? Highly highly doubtful. The tory terrorism attack ad is excellent, the Abbott hairstyle idiocy is even better.
    yup

    the hubbub is fairly pointless, Tezza has dropped a few points but is still firmly mid forties.

    The surprise has been the recovery by Jezza to close the gap.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    kle4 said:

    If only the old bigots were more like the young:

    Election Data @election_data
    ·ICM have 65% of voters approving of the death penalty for acts of terrorism, including 60% of 18-24 yr olds.

    Yes, people tend to overdo the 'it's the old people' criticism of that particular issue, I have little doubt.
    Support for capital punishment doesn't vary much by age cohort.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083

    I feel so conflicted about my vote. :(

    I live in a tight midlands marginal (Con held, Lab facing) where the Lib Dems came 4th last time. I'm a Lib Dem who thinks that Farron is a totally useless idiot and I want to see him gone... but the local Lib Dem candidate is very impressive. Also there's a very good independent candidate standing who I could comfortably vote for too. Then I get worried that Corbyn might get in and have moments where I think I might vote for the Conservative candidate (who is not someone I like at all).

    I really don't know which way I'll jump. I'm torn about 49%/49% between the Lib Dem and the independent. 2% Conservative (but more when I see closer polls).

    Corbyn isn't going to "get in" overall; the worst that can happen is that your local seat changes hands. Ultimately unless the seat finishes with a majority of one (which at parliamentary level I don't ever recall), one vote can't change the result anyway, so it's about which column you want your vote tallied under; whatever mix of best person and best party policies you think appropriate.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    I feel so conflicted about my vote. :(

    I live in a tight midlands marginal (Con held, Lab facing) where the Lib Dems came 4th last time. I'm a Lib Dem who thinks that Farron is a totally useless idiot and I want to see him gone... but the local Lib Dem candidate is very impressive. Also there's a very good independent candidate standing who I could comfortably vote for too. Then I get worried that Corbyn might get in and have moments where I think I might vote for the Conservative candidate (who is not someone I like at all).

    I really don't know which way I'll jump. I'm torn about 49%/49% between the Lib Dem and the independent. 2% Conservative (but more when I see closer polls).

    From the clues you've given, the constituency must be either Worcester or Halesowen & Rowley Regis.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    I feel so conflicted about my vote. :(

    I live in a tight midlands marginal (Con held, Lab facing) where the Lib Dems came 4th last time. I'm a Lib Dem who thinks that Farron is a totally useless idiot and I want to see him gone... but the local Lib Dem candidate is very impressive. Also there's a very good independent candidate standing who I could comfortably vote for too. Then I get worried that Corbyn might get in and have moments where I think I might vote for the Conservative candidate (who is not someone I like at all).

    I really don't know which way I'll jump. I'm torn about 49%/49% between the Lib Dem and the independent. 2% Conservative (but more when I see closer polls).

    You should vote Liberal Democrat. The size of their share vote is one of the things that allows them to be considered as a serious political party. Your seat might be marginal but the outcome of the election isn't. Voting for what you believe in matters more than the precise size of the Tory majority or the personality of your particular representative.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    I'm guessing Marty was definitely, definitely NOT a terrorist at this point.

    https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/868620250664890368

    Given that's a Boris Bus (built in NI) in the background, which makes the photo 2013 or so, then that is a picture of the Mayor of London, Transport Secretary and NI Deputy First Minister.
    How many people did the IRA murder in 2013 - compared with 1983?
    And did McGuinness metamorphose from the commander of the Derry IRA to NI Deputy First Minister through dialogue or by banning his voice and having his words spoken by an actor?
    Both.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    I feel so conflicted about my vote. :(

    I live in a tight midlands marginal (Con held, Lab facing) where the Lib Dems came 4th last time. I'm a Lib Dem who thinks that Farron is a totally useless idiot and I want to see him gone... but the local Lib Dem candidate is very impressive. Also there's a very good independent candidate standing who I could comfortably vote for too. Then I get worried that Corbyn might get in and have moments where I think I might vote for the Conservative candidate (who is not someone I like at all).

    I really don't know which way I'll jump. I'm torn about 49%/49% between the Lib Dem and the independent. 2% Conservative (but more when I see closer polls).

    Vote LD. It is all part of the longterm fightback. It was never going to be a short journey.

    I am in a safe seat, but will be voting for our excellent local LD candidate. We are LibDems, so there is no prospect of Farron as PM. It is all about building for the future.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    I'm guessing Marty was definitely, definitely NOT a terrorist at this point.

    https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/868620250664890368

    Given that's a Boris Bus (built in NI) in the background, which makes the photo 2013 or so, then that is a picture of the Mayor of London, Transport Secretary and NI Deputy First Minister.
    How many people did the IRA murder in 2013 - compared with 1983?
    And did McGuinness metamorphose from the commander of the Derry IRA to NI Deputy First Minister through dialogue or by banning his voice and having his words spoken by an actor?
    Or by losing the military campaign?
    Oh did we win then? I must have missed the victory celebrations.
    Is Ireland united? I must have missed the lowering of the Union flag.
    Perhaps it was a score draw after extra time.
    The IRA wanted a united Ireland,

    They lost.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    Scott_P said:

    Chris said:

    Do you mean you think Corbyn actually wanted the bullet and the bomb to be used? That he preferred that to non-violent means?

    https://twitter.com/shippersunbound/status/868773326977675265
    I'm sure that Corbyn disapproved of the IRA's methods, but he thought we were wrong to resist them.

    He's rather like George Lansbury.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited May 2017

    AndyJS said:

    Next Labour leader:

    Yvette Cooper 4.8 / 5
    Keir Starmer 7.4 / 9.2
    Dan Jarvis 14 / 19
    Lisa Nandy 17 / 19
    Chuka Umanna 17 / 21
    Clive Lewis 13.5 / 22

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.120629096

    I am in deep on this market. But we could be waiting some time for any winnings.
    Given Corbyn will almost certainly increase Labour's voteshare even if May increases her majority he will stay on as Labour leader and I can't see any of those beating him in the short term
  • BudGBudG Posts: 711

    AndyJS said:

    Next Labour leader:

    Yvette Cooper 4.8 / 5
    Keir Starmer 7.4 / 9.2
    Dan Jarvis 14 / 19
    Lisa Nandy 17 / 19
    Chuka Umanna 17 / 21
    Clive Lewis 13.5 / 22

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.120629096

    I am in deep on this market. But we could be waiting some time for any winnings.
    Difficult to see Cooper getting it, if this election does not turn out to be the disaster for Corbyn that most were predicting originally. It is likely to be a successor chosen and supported by him, when he eventually goes.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    isam said:

    malcolmg said:

    isam said:

    Marvellous to see various PB Tories accept the power of redemption as embodied in late period Martin McGuinness. I'm sure they'll join with me in deploring the various goons on here hoping that he'd burn in hell after his recent shuffling off the stage.

    I won't although I'm not a PB Tory

    There is a difference though between actively supporting terrorists while they're killing people, and meeting them after a peace deal has been made.

    You trying to say the Tory government did not meet them from 80's onwards, they just did it in secret and lied about it. Corbyn's crime was that he was not scared to have his talks in public rather than being a craven coward lying about it.
    Not really. Meeting them doesn't equal supporting them. Corbo, McDonnell and Abbott wanted them to win, whether that's a crime or not is subjective I suppose.
    What does "wanted them to win" mean, though? Wanted a united Ireland?
    ...using the bullet and the bomb.
    It's a bit difficult to interpret those words just tagged on after my question like that.

    Do you mean you think Corbyn actually wanted the bullet and the bomb to be used? That he preferred that to non-violent means?
    If he was prepared to meet with the people he met, the people he shared platforms within, then yes. Corbyn is a liar and a hypocrite - he will quietly acquiesce to violence when it suits his means agains the British state.

    Jeremy Corbyn is not a man of peace.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    BudG said:

    AndyJS said:

    Next Labour leader:

    Yvette Cooper 4.8 / 5
    Keir Starmer 7.4 / 9.2
    Dan Jarvis 14 / 19
    Lisa Nandy 17 / 19
    Chuka Umanna 17 / 21
    Clive Lewis 13.5 / 22

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.120629096

    I am in deep on this market. But we could be waiting some time for any winnings.
    Difficult to see Cooper getting it, if this election does not turn out to be the disaster for Corbyn that most were predicting originally. It is likely to be a successor chosen and supported by him, when he eventually goes.
    Right now I'd have to say McIRA may well get it. And the Tories had better have a superior campaign to this one if he's leading Labour in 2022.
  • AndyJS said:

    Chris said:

    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    But it is a very safe seat, South West Wiltshire - over 50% Tory, UKIP second last time but not standing this time, LDs pushed to fourth last time.

    Well seeing as the seat is very very safe Tory, go with your "heart"; the calculation would be different if you were in a marginal.
    My heart is like my gut - unreliable and vacillating.
    Write "Farron out" in the Lib Dem box. Keep it entirely within the box.
    Writing Farron out within the box will be regarded as a spolit vote since it is not a vote in favour of anyone.
    I've seen votes accepted where there was a mark in the Labour box, but the voter had crossed out the candidates name and written 'Aneurin Bevan'.
    Please reassure me that by writing "None of them" diagonally across all the candidates' names I have safely spoiled my ballot!
    I wouldn't risk doing it that way. The best way to spoil your ballot paper is by putting a cross in the box for every candidate. If you leave it blank there's always a risk someone at the count will sneakily put a mark in the box for one of the candidates while everyone is distracted by something else.
    That can't happen, would certainly be picked up if any of the observers were awake.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    I feel so conflicted about my vote. :(

    I live in a tight midlands marginal (Con held, Lab facing) where the Lib Dems came 4th last time. I'm a Lib Dem who thinks that Farron is a totally useless idiot and I want to see him gone... but the local Lib Dem candidate is very impressive. Also there's a very good independent candidate standing who I could comfortably vote for too. Then I get worried that Corbyn might get in and have moments where I think I might vote for the Conservative candidate (who is not someone I like at all).

    I really don't know which way I'll jump. I'm torn about 49%/49% between the Lib Dem and the independent. 2% Conservative (but more when I see closer polls).

    Vote LD. It is all part of the longterm fightback. It was never going to be a short journey.

    I am in a safe seat, but will be voting for our excellent local LD candidate. We are LibDems, so there is no prospect of Farron as PM. It is all about building for the future.

    Also worth noting that short of an implausible 100 Labour gains, we would have either a Tory government, or NOC with a minority government. The second option is likely to result in a new election in fairly short order, probably with new leaders. It is my preferred outcome.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009
    Scott_P said:

    Chris said:

    Do you mean you think Corbyn actually wanted the bullet and the bomb to be used? That he preferred that to non-violent means?

    https://twitter.com/shippersunbound/status/868773326977675265
    Well, I don't subscribe to the Times, so I can't read what the article says about the wreath laying, but I found an item about it on order-order.com. Judging from that, the ceremony was to commemorate those killed at Sabra and Shatila and "others killed by Mossad agents in Paris in 1991". Then the order-order.com item says Mossad has not been accused of killing anyone in Paris in 1991, and suggests it may have been a reference to the assassination of one Atef Bseiso in Paris in 1992.Then the order-order.com item says Bseiso was one of the terrorists who carried out the Munich attack. Looking at the Wikipedia pages on Bseiso and Munich, there are brief references to Israeli sources having claimed Bseiso had some kind of involvement in the attack, but it's not clear what the evidence for that is.

    I think it can be dangerous to take information in tweets as gospel. Though of course you can argue that if it's good enough for the president of the USA ...
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    Apologies for the random, off topic, intervention.

    If you get mouth ulcers occasionally, as I do, there is a type of gel called IGLU. It is like a glue that freezes the ulcer and kills the pain pretty much entirely. I've tried everything and this is the best solution I have found by a long way. It is quite pricey, I paid £6 for a small tube from asda, but it is a big improvement on Bonjela or rubbing salt on them which are the other things that seem to work.

    On topic, no-one has explained where they expect Labour to win, or even hold seats. To me the strategy is about piling up the votes, to increase vote share, no matter where they are, so the hard left can keep control of the party.

    Abbot was a joke on Marr, particularly compared to Amber Rudd. She is a good constituency MP who represents her consituents well. No way can she be home secretary and put in charge of the intelligence services. You must be kidding.
  • AndyJS said:

    RobD said:

    Any news on Survation?

    Good question. The previous one had figures of Con 43, Lab 34, LD 8, UKIP 4, Green 2.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017#2017
    The last time Survation published an online poll, on 20 May, their then lead of 9% for the Tories (43% vs Labour's 34%) was the lowest recorded during the GE campaign by any pollster up to that date.
    Should they continue that trend in their latest poll to be published tomorrow, it wouldn't therefore be that surprising to see them showing a Tory lead of 5% or even lower. On the other hand, a lead of at least 7% or 8% would probably give the Tories good reason to be reasonably cheerful.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,748
    Sean_F said:

    malcolmg said:

    calum said:
    Sophy announced Kezia as the "Scottish labia" leader and then hastily changed it to Labour. Strange thoughts during a political interview.
    Rather like the time I found myself asking for a cut and blow job from a hairdresser, but just managed to correct myself in time.
    So just the blow job then?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Chris said:

    Scott_P said:

    Chris said:

    Do you mean you think Corbyn actually wanted the bullet and the bomb to be used? That he preferred that to non-violent means?

    https://twitter.com/shippersunbound/status/868773326977675265
    Well, I don't subscribe to the Times, so I can't read what the article says about the wreath laying, but I found an item about it on order-order.com. Judging from that, the ceremony was to commemorate those killed at Sabra and Shatila and "others killed by Mossad agents in Paris in 1991". Then the order-order.com item says Mossad has not been accused of killing anyone in Paris in 1991, and suggests it may have been a reference to the assassination of one Atef Bseiso in Paris in 1992.Then the order-order.com item says Bseiso was one of the terrorists who carried out the Munich attack. Looking at the Wikipedia pages on Bseiso and Munich, there are brief references to Israeli sources having claimed Bseiso had some kind of involvement in the attack, but it's not clear what the evidence for that is.

    I think it can be dangerous to take information in tweets as gospel. Though of course you can argue that if it's good enough for the president of the USA ...
    Sabra and Shatila are well worth a wreathlaying.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Chris said:

    Scott_P said:

    Chris said:

    Do you mean you think Corbyn actually wanted the bullet and the bomb to be used? That he preferred that to non-violent means?

    https://twitter.com/shippersunbound/status/868773326977675265
    Well, I don't subscribe to the Times, so I can't read what the article says about the wreath laying, but I found an item about it on order-order.com. Judging from that, the ceremony was to commemorate those killed at Sabra and Shatila and "others killed by Mossad agents in Paris in 1991". Then the order-order.com item says Mossad has not been accused of killing anyone in Paris in 1991, and suggests it may have been a reference to the assassination of one Atef Bseiso in Paris in 1992.Then the order-order.com item says Bseiso was one of the terrorists who carried out the Munich attack. Looking at the Wikipedia pages on Bseiso and Munich, there are brief references to Israeli sources having claimed Bseiso had some kind of involvement in the attack, but it's not clear what the evidence for that is.

    I think it can be dangerous to take information in tweets as gospel. Though of course you can argue that if it's good enough for the president of the USA ...
    The link in the tweet takes me to the full article, and I am not a subscriber.
  • BudGBudG Posts: 711
    edited May 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    BudG said:

    AndyJS said:

    Next Labour leader:

    Yvette Cooper 4.8 / 5
    Keir Starmer 7.4 / 9.2
    Dan Jarvis 14 / 19
    Lisa Nandy 17 / 19
    Chuka Umanna 17 / 21
    Clive Lewis 13.5 / 22

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.120629096

    I am in deep on this market. But we could be waiting some time for any winnings.
    Difficult to see Cooper getting it, if this election does not turn out to be the disaster for Corbyn that most were predicting originally. It is likely to be a successor chosen and supported by him, when he eventually goes.
    Right now I'd have to say McIRA may well get it. And the Tories had better have a superior campaign to this one if he's leading Labour in 2022.
    Hope he is not put forward by Corbyn as his successor. I would happily vote for most centre left canandidates in a leadership election, but don't think I could vote for McD, he comes with far too much baggage.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited May 2017
    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    If only the old bigots were more like the young:

    Election Data @election_data
    ·ICM have 65% of voters approving of the death penalty for acts of terrorism, including 60% of 18-24 yr olds.

    Yes, people tend to overdo the 'it's the old people' criticism of that particular issue, I have little doubt.
    Support for capital punishment doesn't vary much by age cohort.
    Should we have executed the Birmingham 6 or Guilford 4 for their terrorist outrages?

    It may well be that older voters remember the egregious miscarriges of justice better.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    SeanT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    BudG said:

    AndyJS said:

    Next Labour leader:

    Yvette Cooper 4.8 / 5
    Keir Starmer 7.4 / 9.2
    Dan Jarvis 14 / 19
    Lisa Nandy 17 / 19
    Chuka Umanna 17 / 21
    Clive Lewis 13.5 / 22

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.120629096

    I am in deep on this market. But we could be waiting some time for any winnings.
    Difficult to see Cooper getting it, if this election does not turn out to be the disaster for Corbyn that most were predicting originally. It is likely to be a successor chosen and supported by him, when he eventually goes.
    Right now I'd have to say McIRA may well get it. And the Tories had better have a superior campaign to this one if he's leading Labour in 2022.
    McDonnell is a better media performer than Corbyn, and much quicker on his feet, but he lacks the weird "authenticity" of Corbyn, a strange kind of charisma which even I can perceive after a couple of vodkatinis. McD feels like another smooth, lying politician.

    Also, McDonnell has much more previous than Corbyn - his statements about Marxism, Islamism, the IRA and so on have been even more extreme.
    Yes but this election will be the high Tory tide. And with the marmalisation of the Lib Dems it is easier for Labour next election. We had a brief preview with polling peak dementia tax.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    isam said:

    malcolmg said:

    isam said:

    Marvellous to see various PB Tories accept the power of redemption as embodied in late period Martin McGuinness. I'm sure they'll join with me in deploring the various goons on here hoping that he'd burn in hell after his recent shuffling off the stage.

    I won't although I'm not a PB Tory

    There is a difference though between actively supporting terrorists while they're killing people, and meeting them after a peace deal has been made.

    You trying to say the Tory government did not meet them from 80's onwards, they just did it in secret and lied about it. Corbyn's crime was that he was not scared to have his talks in public rather than being a craven coward lying about it.
    Not really. Meeting them doesn't equal supporting them. Corbo, McDonnell and Abbott wanted them to win, whether that's a crime or not is subjective I suppose.
    What does "wanted them to win" mean, though? Wanted a united Ireland?
    ...using the bullet and the bomb.
    It's a bit difficult to interpret those words just tagged on after my question like that.

    Do you mean you think Corbyn actually wanted the bullet and the bomb to be used? That he preferred that to non-violent means?
    If he was prepared to meet with the people he met, the people he shared platforms within, then yes. Corbyn is a liar and a hypocrite - he will quietly acquiesce to violence when it suits his means agains the British state.
    Perhaps you can make a case for Corbyn being guilty by association. But it's not reassuring when bold statements like "he supported the IRA" and "he wanted them to win" tend to dissolve into "he met Sinn Fein" and "he shared a platform".

    Did Corbyn actually make any speeches saying explicitly that he thought IRA terrorism was justified, for example?
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited May 2017
    calum said:
    Funny, but a bit harsh.

    I also think Campbell wrong.

    The tories had no other option. They aren't prepared to run on their record - a large chunk of the tory party hate Dave & George more than they hate Jezza.

    To make their strategy work properly, they needed to trigger the election a month and a half earlier - and dangle A50 in front of voters.

    Keep it dead simple, "Give me a mandate and tomorrow morning I'll catch the first eurostar to Brussels with this letter in my hand."

    Right now, they're unable to give voters something to vote for, which is why the social care stuff has become an issue.

    Since Jezza accepted brexit, it would split the LD/Lab vote much more evenly. IMO, she'd have got 50%+ and a landslide.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009

    Chris said:

    Scott_P said:

    Chris said:

    Do you mean you think Corbyn actually wanted the bullet and the bomb to be used? That he preferred that to non-violent means?

    https://twitter.com/shippersunbound/status/868773326977675265
    Well, I don't subscribe to the Times, so I can't read what the article says about the wreath laying, but I found an item about it on order-order.com. Judging from that, the ceremony was to commemorate those killed at Sabra and Shatila and "others killed by Mossad agents in Paris in 1991". Then the order-order.com item says Mossad has not been accused of killing anyone in Paris in 1991, and suggests it may have been a reference to the assassination of one Atef Bseiso in Paris in 1992.Then the order-order.com item says Bseiso was one of the terrorists who carried out the Munich attack. Looking at the Wikipedia pages on Bseiso and Munich, there are brief references to Israeli sources having claimed Bseiso had some kind of involvement in the attack, but it's not clear what the evidence for that is.

    I think it can be dangerous to take information in tweets as gospel. Though of course you can argue that if it's good enough for the president of the USA ...
    Sabra and Shatila are well worth a wreathlaying.
    I think Sabra and Shatila would clearly have been the main focus of the event. Which I wouldn't have guessed from the tweet.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited May 2017
    If this SurveyMonkey can be taken seriously, Labour could win upto 5 seats in Scotland.

    Edin South, Edin North & Leith, Paisley and Ren South, East Renfrewshire and East Lothian.
  • Torby_FennelTorby_Fennel Posts: 438
    IanB2 said:



    Corbyn isn't going to "get in" overall; the worst that can happen is that your local seat changes hands. Ultimately unless the seat finishes with a majority of one (which at parliamentary level I don't ever recall), one vote can't change the result anyway, so it's about which column you want your vote tallied under; whatever mix of best person and best party policies you think appropriate.

    Very much the lines along which I'm approaching it. I'm happy to have my vote tallied in the Lib Dem column but not so happy to have it tallied in the Farron column. If I lived in a seat where the Lib Dems were starting from 1st or 2nd place I'd not be pondering so much and I'd be voting for them without hesitation despite Farron.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    SeanT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    SeanT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    BudG said:

    AndyJS said:

    Next Labour leader:

    Yvette Cooper 4.8 / 5
    Keir Starmer 7.4 / 9.2
    Dan Jarvis 14 / 19
    Lisa Nandy 17 / 19
    Chuka Umanna 17 / 21
    Clive Lewis 13.5 / 22

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.120629096

    I am in deep on this market. But we could be waiting some time for any winnings.
    Difficult to see Cooper getting it, if this election does not turn out to be the disaster for Corbyn that most were predicting originally. It is likely to be a successor chosen and supported by him, when he eventually goes.
    Right now I'd have to say McIRA may well get it. And the Tories had better have a superior campaign to this one if he's leading Labour in 2022.
    McDonnell is a better media performer than Corbyn, and much quicker on his feet, but he lacks the weird "authenticity" of Corbyn, a strange kind of charisma which even I can perceive after a couple of vodkatinis. McD feels like another smooth, lying politician.

    Also, McDonnell has much more previous than Corbyn - his statements about Marxism, Islamism, the IRA and so on have been even more extreme.
    Yes but this election will be the high Tory tide. And with the marmalisation of the Lib Dems it is easier for Labour next election. We had a brief preview with polling peak dementia tax.
    Maybe, maybe not. Scotland is still a huge problem for Labour (unless they make inroads this time). And we have no idea what Brexit will do to politics, or the economy: once it is over and done we may see a Lib Dem revival.

    And Labour will do well to avoid renewed civil war after June 8.
    The SNP would give confidence & supply to Labour in an instant. More favourable to Jezbollah than his own MPs :D
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Sean_F said:

    malcolmg said:

    calum said:
    Sophy announced Kezia as the "Scottish labia" leader and then hastily changed it to Labour. Strange thoughts during a political interview.
    Rather like the time I found myself asking for a cut and blow job from a hairdresser, but just managed to correct myself in time.
    You missed out on the "cut" then ? .... :smile:
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited May 2017
    SeanT said:

    If only the old bigots were more like the young:

    Election Data @election_data
    ·ICM have 65% of voters approving of the death penalty for acts of terrorism, including 60% of 18-24 yr olds.

    Supports my thesis that the young - even (especially?) - the Corbynites, are becoming noticeably more hostile to Islam and Islamism, the burqa, FGM, etc
    If May announced she was reintroducing the death penalty for terrorists and child killers next week and banning all travel to and from Syria and Libya without express permission from UK authorities she would probably take the Tory poll rating up to close to 50%, Crosby would do it, CCHQ are probably too PC to do so
  • Torby_FennelTorby_Fennel Posts: 438
    AndyJS said:



    From the clues you've given, the constituency must be either Worcester or Halesowen & Rowley Regis.

    It's neither of those. It's actually Lincoln.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    SeanT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    BudG said:

    AndyJS said:

    Next Labour leader:

    Yvette Cooper 4.8 / 5
    Keir Starmer 7.4 / 9.2
    Dan Jarvis 14 / 19
    Lisa Nandy 17 / 19
    Chuka Umanna 17 / 21
    Clive Lewis 13.5 / 22

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.120629096

    I am in deep on this market. But we could be waiting some time for any winnings.
    Difficult to see Cooper getting it, if this election does not turn out to be the disaster for Corbyn that most were predicting originally. It is likely to be a successor chosen and supported by him, when he eventually goes.
    Right now I'd have to say McIRA may well get it. And the Tories had better have a superior campaign to this one if he's leading Labour in 2022.
    McDonnell is a better media performer than Corbyn, and much quicker on his feet, but he lacks the weird "authenticity" of Corbyn, a strange kind of charisma which even I can perceive after a couple of vodkatinis. McD feels like another smooth, lying politician.

    Also, McDonnell has much more previous than Corbyn - his statements about Marxism, Islamism, the IRA and so on have been even more extreme.


    Plus McDonnell is not winning any Tory voters Corbyn hasn't already got
  • daodaodaodao Posts: 821

    I feel so conflicted about my vote. :(

    I live in a tight midlands marginal (Con held, Lab facing) where the Lib Dems came 4th last time. I'm a Lib Dem who thinks that Farron is a totally useless idiot and I want to see him gone... but the local Lib Dem candidate is very impressive. Also there's a very good independent candidate standing who I could comfortably vote for too. Then I get worried that Corbyn might get in and have moments where I think I might vote for the Conservative candidate (who is not someone I like at all).

    I really don't know which way I'll jump. I'm torn about 49%/49% between the Lib Dem and the independent. 2% Conservative (but more when I see closer polls).

    Vote LD. It is all part of the longterm fightback. It was never going to be a short journey.

    I am in a safe seat, but will be voting for our excellent local LD candidate. We are LibDems, so there is no prospect of Farron as PM. It is all about building for the future.

    The LDs look as if they are finished. I wouldn't be surprised if Farron is their only representative in the new Parliament. If one doesn't want a large Tory majority, one should vote Labour in most of England & Wales (PC in Y Fro Gymraeg) and SNP north of the Border.
  • Torby_FennelTorby_Fennel Posts: 438



    Also worth noting that short of an implausible 100 Labour gains, we would have either a Tory government, or NOC with a minority government. The second option is likely to result in a new election in fairly short order, probably with new leaders. It is my preferred outcome.

    I'm not sure the general public could summon the enthusiasm for a another election so soon but I might be wrong. :)

  • AndyJS said:

    Next Labour leader:

    Yvette Cooper 4.8 / 5
    Keir Starmer 7.4 / 9.2
    Dan Jarvis 14 / 19
    Lisa Nandy 17 / 19
    Chuka Umanna 17 / 21
    Clive Lewis 13.5 / 22

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.120629096

    The good news is that the awful Rebecca Long Bailey is included in the list of only one of around 20 bookies on Oddschecker who are making this market, having once inexplicably been one of the favourites, presumably as a result of having appeared on the telly.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    edited May 2017
    nielh said:

    On topic, no-one has explained where they expect Labour to win, or even hold seats. To me the strategy is about piling up the votes, to increase vote share, no matter where they are, so the hard left can keep control of the party.

    If Labour does very well in London, where it was atypically popular last time around, then it might make a small handful of advances there. Labour could also make gains in Scotland if the SNP do unexpectedly badly (say, polling under 40%,) and/or there's a large amount of Unionist tactical voting.

    In terms of the overall result of the election, Electoral Calculus predicts a (very modest) increase in the Tory majority in scenarios where the Tories poll above 40% (which currently still looks very probable) *and* where Labour finishes 4% behind on vote share. This is a UNS projection so doesn't take account of differential swing between regions, and a gap in vote share that narrow between the Big Two would probably imply the majority of Ukip defectors going to Labour and/or a net Lab to Con swing nationwide, neither of which seems likely. So I think it probably is a case of how much May wins by and not whether she wins at all.

    A two-party projection for England and Wales (i.e. not including any seats gained in Scotland,) based on the simple model I have built does imply that a 4% Tory lead is into Hung Parliament territory if the trend line is followed exactly, once we take into account the likelihood that the SNP will retain the large majority of Scottish seats - but I don't think that the overall result is going to be close enough - say, Con 43%, Lab 39% - to test that end of the model. On the wider scale (i.e. in the bulk of England and Wales,) I, like you, do not see where the Corbyn Left is meant to make significant gains amongst constituency electorates who wouldn't back Miliband over Cameron only two years ago.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Chris said:

    Scott_P said:

    Chris said:

    Do you mean you think Corbyn actually wanted the bullet and the bomb to be used? That he preferred that to non-violent means?

    https://twitter.com/shippersunbound/status/868773326977675265
    Well, I don't subscribe to the Times, so I can't read what the article says about the wreath laying, but I found an item about it on order-order.com. Judging from that, the ceremony was to commemorate those killed at Sabra and Shatila and "others killed by Mossad agents in Paris in 1991". Then the order-order.com item says Mossad has not been accused of killing anyone in Paris in 1991, and suggests it may have been a reference to the assassination of one Atef Bseiso in Paris in 1992.Then the order-order.com item says Bseiso was one of the terrorists who carried out the Munich attack. Looking at the Wikipedia pages on Bseiso and Munich, there are brief references to Israeli sources having claimed Bseiso had some kind of involvement in the attack, but it's not clear what the evidence for that is.

    I think it can be dangerous to take information in tweets as gospel. Though of course you can argue that if it's good enough for the president of the USA ...
    The link in the tweet takes me to the full article, and I am not a subscriber.
    Thank you. When I registered I was able see the article as one of my two free ones.

    However, the reference to the wreath-laying affair is very brief, and less informative than that at order-order.com. It doesn't mention Sabra and Shatila, doesn't explain why the Paris reference was assumed to be to Bseiso, and doesn't mention on what basis Bseiso was said to have been involved in the Munich attack.

    But it does say that Michael Fallon claimed on the basis of this story that Corbyn was unfit to be prime minister.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @ScottyNational: News : A reminder that the @afneil interview of Nicola Sturgeon will be on tonight at 7, and the march to have him fired at 10am tomorrow
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,669
    daodao said:

    I feel so conflicted about my vote. :(

    I live in a tight midlands marginal (Con held, Lab facing) where the Lib Dems came 4th last time. I'm a Lib Dem who thinks that Farron is a totally useless idiot and I want to see him gone... but the local Lib Dem candidate is very impressive. Also there's a very good independent candidate standing who I could comfortably vote for too. Then I get worried that Corbyn might get in and have moments where I think I might vote for the Conservative candidate (who is not someone I like at all).

    I really don't know which way I'll jump. I'm torn about 49%/49% between the Lib Dem and the independent. 2% Conservative (but more when I see closer polls).

    Vote LD. It is all part of the longterm fightback. It was never going to be a short journey.

    I am in a safe seat, but will be voting for our excellent local LD candidate. We are LibDems, so there is no prospect of Farron as PM. It is all about building for the future.

    The LDs look as if they are finished. I wouldn't be surprised if Farron is their only representative in the new Parliament. If one doesn't want a large Tory majority, one should vote Labour in most of England & Wales (PC in Y Fro Gymraeg) and SNP north of the Border.
    Maps of 2nd places in 2015 and 2010. I would suggest that 2017 will be somewhere between the two as UKIP fades from the picture.
    http://www.ukelect.co.uk/20150507GenElection/UK2ndPlace.html
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    Chris said:

    Did Corbyn actually make any speeches saying explicitly that he thought IRA terrorism was justified, for example?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/11924431/Revealed-Jeremy-Corbyn-and-John-McDonnells-close-IRA-links.html
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    SeanT said:

    Not sure we've focussed enough on this incredible statistic.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/huge-scale-of-terror-threat-revealed-uk-home-to-23-000-jihadists-3zvn58mhq

    The UK is home to 23,000 jihadists, security sources believe.

    23,000.

    That means, out of a Muslim population of 2.6 million, almost one in every hundred is a jihadist - not just a bit ranty, or slightly radical, but a jihadist

    1% of UK Muslims want to wage war on us, and blow up our children. That means every mosque will have a few like this.

    And these are the active Islamofascists, the ones prepared to use guns on us. How many are passive sympathisers, who might give money, or help, or turn a blind eye. 5% of UK Muslims? 10%? Are there 100,000 sympathisers, or 200,000?

    Terrifying.

    1 in 100 in total, but that includes children, elderly people, women.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    SeanT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    SeanT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    BudG said:

    AndyJS said:

    Next Labour leader:

    Yvette Cooper 4.8 / 5
    Keir Starmer 7.4 / 9.2
    Dan Jarvis 14 / 19
    Lisa Nandy 17 / 19
    Chuka Umanna 17 / 21
    Clive Lewis 13.5 / 22

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.120629096

    I am in deep on this market. But we could be waiting some time for any winnings.
    Difficult to see Cooper getting it, if this election does not turn out to be the disaster for Corbyn that most were predicting originally. It is likely to be a successor chosen and supported by him, when he eventually goes.
    Right now I'd have to say McIRA may well get it. And the Tories had better have a superior campaign to this one if he's leading Labour in 2022.
    McDonnell is a better media performer than Corbyn, and much quicker on his feet, but he lacks the weird "authenticity" of Corbyn, a strange kind of charisma which even I can perceive after a couple of vodkatinis. McD feels like another smooth, lying politician.

    Also, McDonnell has much more previous than Corbyn - his statements about Marxism, Islamism, the IRA and so on have been even more extreme.
    Yes but this election will be the high Tory tide. And with the marmalisation of the Lib Dems it is easier for Labour next election. We had a brief preview with polling peak dementia tax.
    Maybe, maybe not. Scotland is still a huge problem for Labour (unless they make inroads this time). And we have no idea what Brexit will do to politics, or the economy: once it is over and done we may see a Lib Dem revival.

    And Labour will do well to avoid renewed civil war after June 8.
    If Corbyn gets 35% and 200+ seats, his opponents won't have the guts to renew hostilities.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2017

    AndyJS said:



    From the clues you've given, the constituency must be either Worcester or Halesowen & Rowley Regis.

    It's neither of those. It's actually Lincoln.

    Sorry, I thought you'd written West Midlands.

    At the local elections Labour narrowly won most votes in Lincoln by 8,566 to the Tories' 7,681. But of course the constituency also includes some areas just outside the city boundary like Bracebridge Heath.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    SeanT said:

    Not sure we've focussed enough on this incredible statistic.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/huge-scale-of-terror-threat-revealed-uk-home-to-23-000-jihadists-3zvn58mhq

    The UK is home to 23,000 jihadists, security sources believe.

    23,000.

    That means, out of a Muslim population of 2.6 million, almost one in every hundred is a jihadist - not just a bit ranty, or slightly radical, but a jihadist

    1% of UK Muslims want to wage war on us, and blow up our children. That means every mosque will have a few like this.

    And these are the active Islamofascists, the ones prepared to use guns on us. How many are passive sympathisers, who might give money, or help, or turn a blind eye. 5% of UK Muslims? 10%? Are there 100,000 sympathisers, or 200,000?

    Terrifying.

    500 are judged to be a real risk, 3000 to be of interest and 19500 vaguely linked, according tovthe accessible bit of the article. So roughly 2% of 1%.

    Surely this figure is about the size of the haystack rather than the number of needles.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,911

    IanB2 said:



    Corbyn isn't going to "get in" overall; the worst that can happen is that your local seat changes hands. Ultimately unless the seat finishes with a majority of one (which at parliamentary level I don't ever recall), one vote can't change the result anyway, so it's about which column you want your vote tallied under; whatever mix of best person and best party policies you think appropriate.

    Very much the lines along which I'm approaching it. I'm happy to have my vote tallied in the Lib Dem column but not so happy to have it tallied in the Farron column. If I lived in a seat where the Lib Dems were starting from 1st or 2nd place I'd not be pondering so much and I'd be voting for them without hesitation despite Farron.

    This is a terrible election to be socially liberal and economically dry.

    The choice is between a terrorist loving hard left nutter with an even more terrifying cabinet,
    A wibbly-wobbly social democrat with authoritarian tendencies and a habit of making policy on the hoof,
    A homophobe committed to reversing the results of a democratic vote.

    I live in a constituency that's safe as houses so it becomes a question of under whose column do I want my vote to be tallied.

    The obvious answer is that I have nowhere else to go so I might as well vote Conservative and hope that whoever follows May will be better, but for the first time I'm seriously considering sitting this one out. It'd be different if I lived in a marginal but I don't.

    Wonder how many other people are thinking the same.
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    SeanT said:

    And these are the active Islamofascists, the ones prepared to use guns on us. How many are passive sympathisers, who might give money, or help, or turn a blind eye. 5% of UK Muslims? 10%? Are there 100,000 sympathisers, or 200,000?

    Terrifying.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1494648/One-in-four-Muslims-sympathises-with-motives-of-terrorists.html

This discussion has been closed.