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    TMA1TMA1 Posts: 225

    Labour planning new ‘Garden Tax’ which would see council tax TREBLE

    Small print from Labour’s manifesto reveals a proposal to replace council tax with a new Land Value Tax

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3676113/labour-planning-new-garden-tax-which-would-see-council-tax-treble/

    Will it include allotments?
    Telegraph have it as well.
    ''The Labour manifesto contains plans for a Land Value Tax to replace council tax, which would hit people with gardens the hardest.
    The manifesto contains no detail of how the tax would be applied, but the Conservatives claim tax on the the average family home would go up from £1,185 to £3,837 per year, an increase of £2,651 or 224 per cent.
    Opponents of the tax say it would cause house prices to plummet, putting homeowners at risk of negative equity and forcing families to sell off their gardens to developers to lessen their tax burden.
    Because the tax would also apply to agricultural land, it could have a knock-on effect of driving up food prices.
    The policy was described as “nonsensical” by Boris Johnson, the Foreign Secretary, who said it would “bring misery to every single family in Britain”. ''

    Note its the tories who are bringing this 'small print' out. Just saying that for the benefit of those saying they are having a bad campaign.

    Strikes me as a bombshell.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,624
    surbiton said:

    Who is winning the twitter war ?

    Is that a serious question? Who else could win a twitter war?
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Ave_it said:

    Garden tax - happy with 3% PA on buy to let - am I Labour now?! :lol:

    Ave it, we know in your heart, you are Labour.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited May 2017
    Time to stick my neck on the line....

    PREDICTION

    Seats
    Conservatives 350 (+19)
    Labour 221 (-10)
    SNP 47 (-9)
    Lib Dems 10 (+2)
    Others 22 (-2)
    TORY MAJORITY 50

    Vote Shares
    Conservatives 43% +6%
    Labour 33% +3%
    Lib Dems 10% +2%
    UKIP 3% -9%
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,789
    edited May 2017
    FF43 said:

    Sean_F said:

    RobD said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    marke09 said:

    now official

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 2m2 minutes ago

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 43% (-)
    LAB: 37% (+3)
    LDEM: 8% (-)
    UKIP: 4% (-)

    (via @Survation / 26 - 27 May)

    Stunning!

    Yeah, about in line with others. Lab up, Tory steady, polls either adjusting for not expecting young to turnout as they say they will, or banking on them actually doing it this time.
    Labour's advance is at the expense of Greens and SNP (the latter now down to a very low 2%),
    The Survation poll is a UK-wide poll, which explains the low SNP figure.
    Doesn't quite explain it. That is definitely the SNP down

    Edit: which I don't believe
    I expect the SNP to win about 40% in Scotland, which is 3.5% overall.
    How do opinion polls deal with Don't Knows - ie those that will definitely vote, but don't know yet who for, or won't say?
    Very variously. Some ignore them, others try to give them weightings. Don't know usually means won't vote.
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Danny565 said:

    PREDICTION

    Seats
    Conservatives 350 (+19)
    Labour 221 (-10)
    SNP 47 (-9)
    Lib Dems 10 (+2)
    Others 22 (-2)
    TORY MAJORITY 50

    Vote Shares
    Conservatives 43% +6%
    Labour 33% +3%
    Lib Dems 11% +3%
    UKIP 3% -9%



    TORY GAINS FROM LABOUR (18)
    Halifax, Wirral West, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Wolverhampton South West, Dewsbury, North East Derbyshire, Middlesbrough South, Walsall North, Wrexham, Wakefield, (Copeland), Stoke South, Clwyd South, Darlington, Scunthorpe, Dudley North, Great Grimsby

    TORY GAINS FROM SNP (5)
    Berwickshire, East Renfrewshire, Dumfries & Galloway, Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine, Aberdeen South

    TORY GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (2)
    Southport, North Norfolk, (Richmond Park)

    TORY GAIN FROM UKIP (1)
    Clacton


    LABOUR GAINS FROM TORIES (4)
    Bury North, Brighton Kemptown, Cardiff North, Bristol North West

    LABOUR GAINS FROM SNP (2)
    Edinburgh North & Leith, East Lothian

    LABOUR GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (1)
    Leeds North West

    LABOUR GAINS FROM GREENS (1)
    Brighton Pavilion


    LIB DEM GAINS FROM TORIES (3)
    Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Bath

    LIB DEM GAINS FROM SNP (2)
    East Dunbartonshire, Edinburgh West
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    MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited May 2017



    Bit of a disconnect. Council tax is a land value tax. All this is is a big rise in Council Tax.

    Not in the traditional, Georgist, sense, no.

    The point of LVT is that it's based on the undeveloped value of the land - hence no deadweight loss from disincentivising development.

    Council tax is based on the value of the property, particularly the house. Equivalent parcels of land containing a bungalow and six-bedroom mansion are in very different bands. A pure LVT would charge each the same.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937
    edited May 2017
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    RobD said:

    Not sure this has been posted in a while.... Corbyn IRA ad now on 3.5 million views. :p

    Are people watching repeats ?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961



    Bit of a disconnect. Council tax is a land value tax. All this is is a big rise in Council Tax.

    Not in the traditional, Georgist, sense, no.

    The point of LVT is that it's based on the undeveloped value of the land - hence no dead-weight loss from disincentivising development.

    Council tax is based on the value of the property, particularly the house. Equivalent parcels of land containing a bungalow and six-bedroom mansion are in very different bands. A pure LVT would charge each the same.
    Sounds pretty regressive, unless I am missing something?
  • Options
    MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited May 2017
    PClipp said:

    Labour planning new ‘Garden Tax’ which would see council tax TREBLE
    Small print from Labour’s manifesto reveals a proposal to replace council tax with a new Land Value Tax
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3676113/labour-planning-new-garden-tax-which-would-see-council-tax-treble/

    Bit of a disconnect. Council tax is a land value tax. All this is is a big rise in Council Tax.
    Not at all, Mr Rabbit. Council Tax is levied on the value of the property. Site Value Tax is levied on the value of the site, as if there was no construction on it. The difference is that you can improve your property as much as you like, but the value of the site remains the same.

    The later is a long-standing Liberal policy, and is very sensible. If Labour are picking that up now, it is to be welcomed. But I wouldn`t mind betting they do not understand it.
    You keyboard whizz, you. Hat duly doffed.
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    ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    alex. said:

    midwinter said:

    alex. said:

    Ave_it said:

    OK let's be clear

    It's the worst CON campaign of all time!

    Reckon 1997 might run it close...
    2015 seemed fairly dire at times. Right up until the exit poll in fact..
    Has there ever been a Conservative Election campaign that has earned widespread praise (without the benefit of hindsight)? Wasn't it said that Labour ran away with the campaigns in the 80s? Foot won by a country mile.

    Conservative manifestos are almost always offering hard choices and handicapped by defending a record in Government. Labour manifestos offer sweeties and are usually going on the offensive against the Government of the day. Miliband's main problem in 2015 was when he found himself having to defend Labour's Govt record.
    Very shrewd comment.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,624
    edited May 2017
    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    PREDICTION

    Seats
    Conservatives 350 (+19)
    Labour 221 (-10)
    SNP 47 (-9)
    Lib Dems 10 (+2)
    Others 22 (-2)
    TORY MAJORITY 50

    Vote Shares
    Conservatives 43% +6%
    Labour 33% +3%
    Lib Dems 11% +3%
    UKIP 3% -9%



    TORY GAINS FROM LABOUR (18)
    Halifax, Wirral West, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Wolverhampton South West, Dewsbury, North East Derbyshire, Middlesbrough South, Walsall North, Wrexham, Wakefield, (Copeland), Stoke South, Clwyd South, Darlington, Scunthorpe, Dudley North, Great Grimsby

    TORY GAINS FROM SNP (5)
    Berwickshire, East Renfrewshire, Dumfries & Galloway, Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine, Aberdeen South

    TORY GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (2)
    Southport, North Norfolk, (Richmond Park)

    TORY GAIN FROM UKIP (1)
    Clacton


    LABOUR GAINS FROM TORIES (4)
    Bury North, Brighton Kemptown, Cardiff North, Bristol North West

    LABOUR GAINS FROM SNP (2)
    Edinburgh North & Leith, East Lothian

    LABOUR GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (1)
    Leeds North West

    LABOUR GAINS FROM GREENS (1)
    Brighton Pavilion


    LIB DEM GAINS FROM TORIES (3)
    Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Bath

    LIB DEM GAINS FROM SNP (2)
    East Dunbartonshire, Edinburgh West
    Tories would have been happy with six scottishs eats at the start, I suppose. And it''s be nice for all the unionists to improve.

    Are you sticking with these predictions, or planning to update? Good on you for laying it all out there.
  • Options
    JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    RobD said:

    Jason said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Tezza doing quite well explaining social care policy... Floundering badly on CFP...

    Yes, we know. We've already watched it.
    GIN's just catching up.
    Sure, I was just teasing!!
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,691
    Sean_F said:

    FF43 said:

    Sean_F said:

    RobD said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    marke09 said:

    now official

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 2m2 minutes ago

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 43% (-)
    LAB: 37% (+3)
    LDEM: 8% (-)
    UKIP: 4% (-)

    (via @Survation / 26 - 27 May)

    Stunning!

    Yeah, about in line with others. Lab up, Tory steady, polls either adjusting for not expecting young to turnout as they say they will, or banking on them actually doing it this time.
    Labour's advance is at the expense of Greens and SNP (the latter now down to a very low 2%),
    The Survation poll is a UK-wide poll, which explains the low SNP figure.
    Doesn't quite explain it. That is definitely the SNP down

    Edit: which I don't believe
    I expect the SNP to win about 40% in Scotland, which is 3.5% overall.
    How do opinion polls deal with Don't Knows - ie those that will definitely vote, but don't know yet who for, or won't say?
    Very variously. Some ignore them, others try to give them weightings. Don't know usually means won't vote.
    But DK's don't count towards the total? ie named parties (or other parties) make up the full 100%.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    Jason said:

    RobD said:

    Jason said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Tezza doing quite well explaining social care policy... Floundering badly on CFP...

    Yes, we know. We've already watched it.
    GIN's just catching up.
    Sure, I was just teasing!!
    Ah, sorry about that!
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    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    camel said:

    Have we found out whether Abbot will be appearing for Labour on Tuesday's show. After tonight's turgidity, the gaiety of the nation needs adding to.

    will she sport a new afro?
  • Options
    ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    TMA1 said:

    Labour planning new ‘Garden Tax’ which would see council tax TREBLE

    Small print from Labour’s manifesto reveals a proposal to replace council tax with a new Land Value Tax

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3676113/labour-planning-new-garden-tax-which-would-see-council-tax-treble/

    Will it include allotments?
    Telegraph have it as well.
    ''The Labour manifesto contains plans for a Land Value Tax to replace council tax, which would hit people with gardens the hardest.
    The manifesto contains no detail of how the tax would be applied, but the Conservatives claim tax on the the average family home would go up from £1,185 to £3,837 per year, an increase of £2,651 or 224 per cent.
    Opponents of the tax say it would cause house prices to plummet, putting homeowners at risk of negative equity and forcing families to sell off their gardens to developers to lessen their tax burden.
    Because the tax would also apply to agricultural land, it could have a knock-on effect of driving up food prices.
    The policy was described as “nonsensical” by Boris Johnson, the Foreign Secretary, who said it would “bring misery to every single family in Britain”. ''

    Note its the tories who are bringing this 'small print' out. Just saying that for the benefit of those saying they are having a bad campaign.

    Strikes me as a bombshell.
    Attacking people's gardens??? Game over.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,624

    camel said:

    Have we found out whether Abbot will be appearing for Labour on Tuesday's show. After tonight's turgidity, the gaiety of the nation needs adding to.

    will she sport a new afro?
    Corbyn has to go. He's a decent performer and is flush with confidence. Thornberry would probably do ok, but Abbott would just mess things up.
  • Options
    marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    So majority say Paxman was poor what about Faisal Islam (who is 40 today)
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,624
    Prodicus said:

    TMA1 said:

    Labour planning new ‘Garden Tax’ which would see council tax TREBLE

    Small print from Labour’s manifesto reveals a proposal to replace council tax with a new Land Value Tax

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3676113/labour-planning-new-garden-tax-which-would-see-council-tax-treble/

    Will it include allotments?
    Telegraph have it as well.
    ''The Labour manifesto contains plans for a Land Value Tax to replace council tax, which would hit people with gardens the hardest.
    The manifesto contains no detail of how the tax would be applied, but the Conservatives claim tax on the the average family home would go up from £1,185 to £3,837 per year, an increase of £2,651 or 224 per cent.
    Opponents of the tax say it would cause house prices to plummet, putting homeowners at risk of negative equity and forcing families to sell off their gardens to developers to lessen their tax burden.
    Because the tax would also apply to agricultural land, it could have a knock-on effect of driving up food prices.
    The policy was described as “nonsensical” by Boris Johnson, the Foreign Secretary, who said it would “bring misery to every single family in Britain”. ''

    Note its the tories who are bringing this 'small print' out. Just saying that for the benefit of those saying they are having a bad campaign.

    Strikes me as a bombshell.
    Attacking people's gardens??? Game over.
    Yes - Tories attacking our homes, Labour our gardens, LDs probably after our garden sheds, it's anarchy.
  • Options
    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    PREDICTION

    Seats
    Conservatives 350 (+19)
    Labour 221 (-10)
    SNP 47 (-9)
    Lib Dems 10 (+2)
    Others 22 (-2)
    TORY MAJORITY 50

    Vote Shares
    Conservatives 43% +6%
    Labour 33% +3%
    Lib Dems 11% +3%
    UKIP 3% -9%



    TORY GAINS FROM LABOUR (18)
    Halifax, Wirral West, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Wolverhampton South West, Dewsbury, North East Derbyshire, Middlesbrough South, Walsall North, Wrexham, Wakefield, (Copeland), Stoke South, Clwyd South, Darlington, Scunthorpe, Dudley North, Great Grimsby

    TORY GAINS FROM SNP (5)
    Berwickshire, East Renfrewshire, Dumfries & Galloway, Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine, Aberdeen South

    TORY GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (2)
    Southport, North Norfolk, (Richmond Park)

    TORY GAIN FROM UKIP (1)
    Clacton


    LABOUR GAINS FROM TORIES (4)
    Bury North, Brighton Kemptown, Cardiff North, Bristol North West

    LABOUR GAINS FROM SNP (2)
    Edinburgh North & Leith, East Lothian

    LABOUR GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (1)
    Leeds North West

    LABOUR GAINS FROM GREENS (1)
    Brighton Pavilion


    LIB DEM GAINS FROM TORIES (3)
    Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Bath

    LIB DEM GAINS FROM SNP (2)
    East Dunbartonshire, Edinburgh West
    Good analysis Danny - We (CON) will also win Carshalton and maybe Westmorland too

    No chance of those LAB gains except for Brighton Kemptown

    We will not lose those seats to LD
  • Options
    peterbusspeterbuss Posts: 109
    I thought Corbyn came over as affable and very engaged but very slippery on his past. In voting for him it seems to me that we are being asked to vote for the political equivalent of Eddie the Eagle.Enthusiastic and clearly enjoying himself but frankly we all know that he couldn't actually do the job as PM. With May we are being asked to vote for somebody who could do the job but frankly the more one sees of her the less one warms to her.
  • Options
    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    RobD said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    marke09 said:

    now official

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 2m2 minutes ago

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 43% (-)
    LAB: 37% (+3)
    LDEM: 8% (-)
    UKIP: 4% (-)

    (via @Survation / 26 - 27 May)

    Stunning!

    Yeah, about in line with others. Lab up, Tory steady, polls either adjusting for not expecting young to turnout as they say they will, or banking on them actually doing it this time.
    Labour's advance is at the expense of Greens and SNP (the latter now down to a very low 2%),
    The Survation poll is a UK-wide poll, which explains the low SNP figure.
    And it adds ~1% to each of the two main parties to get the GB figure to compare with other polls.

    Which in turn makes the two-party share look improbably high...
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    marke09 said:

    So majority say Paxman was poor what about Faisal Islam (who is 40 today)

    Who flagged this as spam?

    Anyway, given he didn't call May "First Lord of the Treasury" repeatedly, I think he did alright.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,899
    edited May 2017
    @Danny565 Those seat changes look very credible to me.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    marke09 said:

    So majority say Paxman was poor what about Faisal Islam (who is 40 today)

    Paxman was pathetic ! He wouldn't even let Corbyn answer his questions. He was slightly better with May but still interrupted quite a lot.
  • Options
    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    edited May 2017
    HYUFD said:
    Ah yes, uber Briton and patriot Nigel Farage who will be shown to be not quite so patriotic and Britain first at all.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,046
    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    PREDICTION

    Seats
    Conservatives 350 (+19)
    Labour 221 (-10)
    SNP 47 (-9)
    Lib Dems 10 (+2)
    Others 22 (-2)
    TORY MAJORITY 50

    Vote Shares
    Conservatives 43% +6%
    Labour 33% +3%
    Lib Dems 11% +3%
    UKIP 3% -9%



    TORY GAINS FROM LABOUR (18)
    Halifax, Wirral West, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Wolverhampton South West, Dewsbury, North East Derbyshire, Middlesbrough South, Walsall North, Wrexham, Wakefield, (Copeland), Stoke South, Clwyd South, Darlington, Scunthorpe, Dudley North, Great Grimsby

    TORY GAINS FROM SNP (5)
    Berwickshire, East Renfrewshire, Dumfries & Galloway, Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine, Aberdeen South

    TORY GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (2)
    Southport, North Norfolk, (Richmond Park)

    TORY GAIN FROM UKIP (1)
    Clacton


    LABOUR GAINS FROM TORIES (4)
    Bury North, Brighton Kemptown, Cardiff North, Bristol North West

    LABOUR GAINS FROM SNP (2)
    Edinburgh North & Leith, East Lothian

    LABOUR GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (1)
    Leeds North West

    LABOUR GAINS FROM GREENS (1)
    Brighton Pavilion


    LIB DEM GAINS FROM TORIES (3)
    Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Bath

    LIB DEM GAINS FROM SNP (2)
    East Dunbartonshire, Edinburgh West
    Bristol NW has a majority of nearly 10%.

    You'd be better replacing it with Croydon Central.

    Nor will Labour gain Bury North if there is a swing to the Conservatives in northern England.

  • Options
    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    surbiton said:

    Ave_it said:

    Garden tax - happy with 3% PA on buy to let - am I Labour now?! :lol:

    Ave it, we know in your heart, you are Labour.
    Surbiton I have been in my time! :lol:
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    Pulpstar said:

    @Danny565 Those seat changes look very credible to me.

    Kudos for sticking your neck out.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,821
    kle4 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    PREDICTION

    Seats
    Conservatives 350 (+19)
    Labour 221 (-10)
    SNP 47 (-9)
    Lib Dems 10 (+2)
    Others 22 (-2)
    TORY MAJORITY 50

    Vote Shares
    Conservatives 43% +6%
    Labour 33% +3%
    Lib Dems 11% +3%
    UKIP 3% -9%



    TORY GAINS FROM LABOUR (18)
    Halifax, Wirral West, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Wolverhampton South West, Dewsbury, North East Derbyshire, Middlesbrough South, Walsall North, Wrexham, Wakefield, (Copeland), Stoke South, Clwyd South, Darlington, Scunthorpe, Dudley North, Great Grimsby

    TORY GAINS FROM SNP (5)
    Berwickshire, East Renfrewshire, Dumfries & Galloway, Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine, Aberdeen South

    TORY GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (2)
    Southport, North Norfolk, (Richmond Park)

    TORY GAIN FROM UKIP (1)
    Clacton


    LABOUR GAINS FROM TORIES (4)
    Bury North, Brighton Kemptown, Cardiff North, Bristol North West

    LABOUR GAINS FROM SNP (2)
    Edinburgh North & Leith, East Lothian

    LABOUR GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (1)
    Leeds North West

    LABOUR GAINS FROM GREENS (1)
    Brighton Pavilion


    LIB DEM GAINS FROM TORIES (3)
    Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Bath

    LIB DEM GAINS FROM SNP (2)
    East Dunbartonshire, Edinburgh West
    Tories would have been happy with six scottishs eats at the start, I suppose. And it''s be nice for all the unionists to improve.

    Are you sticking with these predictions, or planning to update? Good on you for laying it all out there.
    Would settle for that. TBH
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937
    Y0kel said:

    HYUFD said:
    Ah yes, uber Briton and patriot Nigel Farage who will be shown to be not quite so patriotic and Britain first at all.
    Farage puts his own agenda first
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793
    Tezza not as good with Faisal and the audience as Jezza was.

    Paxman next.
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    MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited May 2017
    RobD said:



    Bit of a disconnect. Council tax is a land value tax. All this is is a big rise in Council Tax.

    Not in the traditional, Georgist, sense, no.

    The point of LVT is that it's based on the undeveloped value of the land - hence no dead-weight loss from disincentivising development.

    Council tax is based on the value of the property, particularly the house. Equivalent parcels of land containing a bungalow and six-bedroom mansion are in very different bands. A pure LVT would charge each the same.
    Sounds pretty regressive, unless I am missing something?
    Indeed you're not. But a basic result from economics is that lump-sum taxes are more efficient than a proportionate or unit tax, because their unavoidable nature reduces economic distortion, since there is no incentive to reduce production/consumption to avoid it.

    Regressive, hence inequitable, and therefore not necessarily welfare-maximising, but efficient.

    The point of LVT in particular is that it's levied on the value of land if it were unimproved - hence incentivising people to make best use of the land they own, and not penalising them for improving/developing it.

    (The effect on agricultural land would be pretty small - the value of agricultural land without planning permission is low.)
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Pong said:

    My mind is made up.

    I could have swung one of three ways, but ultimately I can't condone either the tories or labour leaderships/manifestos.

    They're shite.

    I'm going to be voting for Tim (not a sin).

    nor dim?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    GIN1138 said:

    Tezza not as good with Faisal and the audience as Jezza was.

    Paxman next.

    Our GIN's stuck in a time-warp. :D
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    RobD said:

    I had better things to to this evening than watch the "debate", but I gather Corbyn called the Falklands a "Tory plot"? Surely not?

    given our inability to plot a successful manifesto launch, I think engineering a war with Argentina is a bit far-fetched.
    Well, this is why I don't subscribe to conspiracy theories: governments just aren't competent enough to carry them out.
  • Options
    hoveitehoveite Posts: 43

    Labour planning new ‘Garden Tax’ which would see council tax TREBLE

    Small print from Labour’s manifesto reveals a proposal to replace council tax with a new Land Value Tax

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3676113/labour-planning-new-garden-tax-which-would-see-council-tax-treble/

    Bit of a disconnect. Council tax is a land value tax. All this is is a big rise in Council Tax.
    No it's not council tax is a land occupation tax as it's paid by the occupier not the owner.

  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,624

    RobD said:

    I had better things to to this evening than watch the "debate", but I gather Corbyn called the Falklands a "Tory plot"? Surely not?

    given our inability to plot a successful manifesto launch, I think engineering a war with Argentina is a bit far-fetched.
    Well, this is why I don't subscribe to conspiracy theories: governments just aren't competent enough to carry them out.
    Oh, the occasional one occurs, I have no doubt, but overwhelmingly you're absolutely right.
  • Options
    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    10 days time...all the LAB keeping a low profile on the site like IOS :lol:
  • Options
    marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Well tomorrow night we got Huw Edwards doing the BBC Wales leaders debate
    Wednesday its Mishal Husain with the BBC Leaders debate
    Friday David Dimbleby with May v Corbyn round 2
  • Options
    SirBenjaminSirBenjamin Posts: 238
    Ave_it said:



    No chance of those LAB gains except for Brighton Kemptown


    We badly need to hold Kemptown for next season, after Huddersfield Town's disastrous win today.

    The Premiership still won't be anywhere near representative, mind, but we need to take every possible step in the right direction that we can.
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    surbiton said:

    RobD said:

    Not sure this has been posted in a while.... Corbyn IRA ad now on 3.5 million views. :p

    Are people watching repeats ?
    Yes, a lot of those viewings are me, it's like crack cocaine. The structure is masterly: 3 acts - jezza solo speeches with transcripts in act 1, dialogue with beautiful woman in act 2, and then fade to black with the telephone dial tone at the end, as good as Brighton Rock.

    It has put on 525000 views since teatime.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,899
    hoveite said:

    Labour planning new ‘Garden Tax’ which would see council tax TREBLE

    Small print from Labour’s manifesto reveals a proposal to replace council tax with a new Land Value Tax

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3676113/labour-planning-new-garden-tax-which-would-see-council-tax-treble/

    Bit of a disconnect. Council tax is a land value tax. All this is is a big rise in Council Tax.
    No it's not council tax is a land occupation tax as it's paid by the occupier not the owner.

    Eh ?

    In my case that's the same person. But surely Labour should tax the OWNERS - this stinks to high heaven if it is on the occupiers !
    More taxes for generation rent - is this right ?
  • Options
    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    marke09 said:

    now official

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 2m2 minutes ago

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 43% (-)
    LAB: 37% (+3)
    LDEM: 8% (-)
    UKIP: 4% (-)

    (via @Survation / 26 - 27 May)

    Stunning!

    Yeah, about in line with others. Lab up, Tory steady, polls either adjusting for not expecting young to turnout as they say they will, or banking on them actually doing it this time.
    Labour's advance is at the expense of Greens and SNP (the latter now down to a very low 2%),
    Agreed.

    Stephen Daisley in the Scottish Daily Mail - The SNP is on the attack because it has nothing to defend
    'If it wasn’t for their election blunders, the SNP would have no campaign at all.'
  • Options
    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    Ave_it said:



    No chance of those LAB gains except for Brighton Kemptown


    We badly need to hold Kemptown for next season, after Huddersfield Town's disastrous win today.

    The Premiership still won't be anywhere near representative, mind, but we need to take every possible step in the right direction that we can.
    Watford is CON! And Brighton will be back in Championship hopefully 2018! :lol:
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    Labour planning new ‘Garden Tax’ which would see council tax TREBLE

    Small print from Labour’s manifesto reveals a proposal to replace council tax with a new Land Value Tax

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3676113/labour-planning-new-garden-tax-which-would-see-council-tax-treble/

    WHAT?

    That's another reason to be glad Labour won't win the next election. Jesus....

  • Options
    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    Ave_it said:

    Ave_it said:



    No chance of those LAB gains except for Brighton Kemptown


    We badly need to hold Kemptown for next season, after Huddersfield Town's disastrous win today.

    The Premiership still won't be anywhere near representative, mind, but we need to take every possible step in the right direction that we can.
    Watford is CON! And Brighton will be back in Championship hopefully 2018! :lol:
    As a Palace fan - amen to that.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,899
    Ishmael_Z said:

    surbiton said:

    RobD said:

    Not sure this has been posted in a while.... Corbyn IRA ad now on 3.5 million views. :p

    Are people watching repeats ?
    Yes, a lot of those viewings are me, it's like crack cocaine. The structure is masterly: 3 acts - jezza solo speeches with transcripts in act 1, dialogue with beautiful woman in act 2, and then fade to black with the telephone dial tone at the end, as good as Brighton Rock.

    It has put on 525000 views since teatime.
    I haven't seen this at all..
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,691
    I don't think many of the genuine swing voters believe Corbyn will be PM. It's case of how many of them will vote for him because they actually don't want a "strong and stable" Theresa May and will vote for the party that would most plausibly chip away at May's majority, or if they quite like Corbyn as long as he doesn't become PM. How that plays out determines whether May's majority is very comfortable or massive.
  • Options
    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    PREDICTION

    Seats
    Conservatives 350 (+19)
    Labour 221 (-10)
    SNP 47 (-9)
    Lib Dems 10 (+2)
    Others 22 (-2)
    TORY MAJORITY 50

    Vote Shares
    Conservatives 43% +6%
    Labour 33% +3%
    Lib Dems 11% +3%
    UKIP 3% -9%



    TORY GAINS FROM LABOUR (18)
    Halifax, Wirral West, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Wolverhampton South West, Dewsbury, North East Derbyshire, Middlesbrough South, Walsall North, Wrexham, Wakefield, (Copeland), Stoke South, Clwyd South, Darlington, Scunthorpe, Dudley North, Great Grimsby

    TORY GAINS FROM SNP (5)
    Berwickshire, East Renfrewshire, Dumfries & Galloway, Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine, Aberdeen South

    TORY GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (2)
    Southport, North Norfolk, (Richmond Park)

    TORY GAIN FROM UKIP (1)
    Clacton


    LABOUR GAINS FROM TORIES (4)
    Bury North, Brighton Kemptown, Cardiff North, Bristol North West

    LABOUR GAINS FROM SNP (2)
    Edinburgh North & Leith, East Lothian

    LABOUR GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (1)
    Leeds North West

    LABOUR GAINS FROM GREENS (1)
    Brighton Pavilion


    LIB DEM GAINS FROM TORIES (3)
    Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Bath

    LIB DEM GAINS FROM SNP (2)
    East Dunbartonshire, Edinburgh West
    Bristol NW has a majority of nearly 10%.

    You'd be better replacing it with Croydon Central.

    Nor will Labour gain Bury North if there is a swing to the Conservatives in northern England.

    I don’t see Cardiff North falling. Once Julie Morgan lost that seat, it was always going to need a truly exceptional candidate for Labour to take it back.

    The local elections left the Tories solidly in control of the wards making up Cardiff North.

    Gower is more likely to fall than Cardiff North.

    (Although I think the Tories will hang on to them both, and will take some seats in the North East of Wales).
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,152
    edited May 2017

    RobD said:



    Bit of a disconnect. Council tax is a land value tax. All this is is a big rise in Council Tax.

    Not in the traditional, Georgist, sense, no.

    The point of LVT is that it's based on the undeveloped value of the land - hence no dead-weight loss from disincentivising development.

    Council tax is based on the value of the property, particularly the house. Equivalent parcels of land containing a bungalow and six-bedroom mansion are in very different bands. A pure LVT would charge each the same.
    Sounds pretty regressive, unless I am missing something?
    Indeed you're not. But a basic result from economics is that lump-sum taxes are more efficient than a proportionate or unit tax, because their unavoidable nature reduces economic distortion, since there is no incentive to reduce production/consumption to avoid it.

    Regressive, hence inequitable, and therefore not necessarily welfare-maximising, but efficient.

    The point of LVT in particular is that it's levied on the value of land if it were unimproved - hence incentivising people to make best use of the land they own, and not penalising them for improving/developing it.

    (The effect on agricultural land would be pretty small - the value of agricultural land without planning permission is low.)
    I am making the best use of my property. By living in it with my family. A big rise in tax will disincentivise me from spending any of my remaining money elsewhere.

    Still, now we know. The Tories will steal my house after I've died of dementia. Labour will steal it while I'm still alive and compos mentis

    Incidentally, has anyone heard from the Lib Dems? They seem to have vanished.........

  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    PREDICTION

    Seats
    Conservatives 350 (+19)
    Labour 221 (-10)
    SNP 47 (-9)
    Lib Dems 10 (+2)
    Others 22 (-2)
    TORY MAJORITY 50

    Vote Shares
    Conservatives 43% +6%
    Labour 33% +3%
    Lib Dems 11% +3%
    UKIP 3% -9%



    TORY GAINS FROM LABOUR (18)
    Halifax, Wirral West, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Wolverhampton South West, Dewsbury, North East Derbyshire, Middlesbrough South, Walsall North, Wrexham, Wakefield, (Copeland), Stoke South, Clwyd South, Darlington, Scunthorpe, Dudley North, Great Grimsby

    TORY GAINS FROM SNP (5)
    Berwickshire, East Renfrewshire, Dumfries & Galloway, Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine, Aberdeen South

    TORY GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (2)
    Southport, North Norfolk, (Richmond Park)

    TORY GAIN FROM UKIP (1)
    Clacton


    LABOUR GAINS FROM TORIES (4)
    Bury North, Brighton Kemptown, Cardiff North, Bristol North West

    LABOUR GAINS FROM SNP (2)
    Edinburgh North & Leith, East Lothian

    LABOUR GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (1)
    Leeds North West

    LABOUR GAINS FROM GREENS (1)
    Brighton Pavilion


    LIB DEM GAINS FROM TORIES (3)
    Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Bath

    LIB DEM GAINS FROM SNP (2)
    East Dunbartonshire, Edinburgh West
    Bristol NW has a majority of nearly 10%.

    You'd be better replacing it with Croydon Central.

    Nor will Labour gain Bury North if there is a swing to the Conservatives in northern England.

    I've had a strong feeling about Bristol NW for a while. It was VERY pro-Remain (I think either that or Bath was the most Remain Tory seat outside of London), and there is some demographic change going on there, albeit not as fast demographic change as a true "inner city" seat.

    Bury North is a bit more of a stretch, but Labour's results in the Greater Manchester mayoral election really were RIP-ROARINGLY good -- I'm not sure all of that was a personal vote for Burnham.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,821
    She's a liar liar now no2 in I tunes chart
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2017
    marke09 said:

    now official

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 2m2 minutes ago

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 43% (-)
    LAB: 37% (+3)
    LDEM: 8% (-)
    UKIP: 4% (-)

    (via @Survation / 26 - 27 May)

    I think we had this poll a few hours ago. It isn't new.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    Prodicus said:

    TMA1 said:

    Labour planning new ‘Garden Tax’ which would see council tax TREBLE

    Small print from Labour’s manifesto reveals a proposal to replace council tax with a new Land Value Tax

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3676113/labour-planning-new-garden-tax-which-would-see-council-tax-treble/

    Will it include allotments?
    Telegraph have it as well.
    ''The Labour manifesto contains plans for a Land Value Tax to replace council tax, which would hit people with gardens the hardest.
    The manifesto contains no detail of how the tax would be applied, but the Conservatives claim tax on the the average family home would go up from £1,185 to £3,837 per year, an increase of £2,651 or 224 per cent.
    Opponents of the tax say it would cause house prices to plummet, putting homeowners at risk of negative equity and forcing families to sell off their gardens to developers to lessen their tax burden.
    Because the tax would also apply to agricultural land, it could have a knock-on effect of driving up food prices.
    The policy was described as “nonsensical” by Boris Johnson, the Foreign Secretary, who said it would “bring misery to every single family in Britain”. ''

    Note its the tories who are bringing this 'small print' out. Just saying that for the benefit of those saying they are having a bad campaign.

    Strikes me as a bombshell.
    Attacking people's gardens??? Game over.
    I used to joke that the most effective political party in British politics would be the Garden Party, headed by Alan Titchmarsh.

    Seems the nation may yet call upon him in their hour of need....
  • Options
    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    Gut instinct is the Tories will hold Bath.
  • Options
    marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    AndyJS said:

    marke09 said:

    now official

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 2m2 minutes ago

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 43% (-)
    LAB: 37% (+3)
    LDEM: 8% (-)
    UKIP: 4% (-)

    (via @Survation / 26 - 27 May)

    I think we had this poll a few hours ago. It isn't new.
    AndyJS said:

    marke09 said:

    now official

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 2m2 minutes ago

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 43% (-)
    LAB: 37% (+3)
    LDEM: 8% (-)
    UKIP: 4% (-)

    (via @Survation / 26 - 27 May)

    I think we had this poll a few hours ago. It isn't new.
    it was leaked on twitter this morning then taken down so now officialyy published
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,624
    FF43 said:

    I don't think many of the genuine swing voters believe Corbyn will be PM. It's case of how many of them will vote for him because they actually don't want a "strong and stable" Theresa May and will vote for the party that would most plausibly chip away at May's majority, or if they quite like Corbyn as long as he doesn't become PM. How that plays out determines whether May's majority is very comfortable or massive.

    There were at least a few people who voted Leave not expecting Leave to win and might have reconsidered otherwise (though I don't think the Bregreters were a large bunch), so in this the Tories probably have it right for once - if they have doubts of him people shouldn't risk it, just because they think he cannot win. Stay home, vote LD, but if they should vote him only if they want him to win, or think the most opposition to the Tories overrides other considerations.
  • Options
    MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    The free-market think tanks the Adam Smith Institute and the Institute of Economic Affairs have both advocated a land value tax - see here and here for some arguments. Not the kind of cheerleaders Corbyn would have had in mind ...
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,821

    Labour planning new ‘Garden Tax’ which would see council tax TREBLE

    Small print from Labour’s manifesto reveals a proposal to replace council tax with a new Land Value Tax

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3676113/labour-planning-new-garden-tax-which-would-see-council-tax-treble/

    WHAT?

    That's another reason to be glad Labour won't win the next election. Jesus....

    Sun bollocks otherwise I am sure Tories would have mentioned it surely
  • Options
    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Cyclefree said:

    RobD said:



    Bit of a disconnect. Council tax is a land value tax. All this is is a big rise in Council Tax.

    Not in the traditional, Georgist, sense, no.

    The point of LVT is that it's based on the undeveloped value of the land - hence no dead-weight loss from disincentivising development.

    Council tax is based on the value of the property, particularly the house. Equivalent parcels of land containing a bungalow and six-bedroom mansion are in very different bands. A pure LVT would charge each the same.
    Sounds pretty regressive, unless I am missing something?
    Indeed you're not. But a basic result from economics is that lump-sum taxes are more efficient than a proportionate or unit tax, because their unavoidable nature reduces economic distortion, since there is no incentive to reduce production/consumption to avoid it.

    Regressive, hence inequitable, and therefore not necessarily welfare-maximising, but efficient.

    The point of LVT in particular is that it's levied on the value of land if it were unimproved - hence incentivising people to make best use of the land they own, and not penalising them for improving/developing it.

    (The effect on agricultural land would be pretty small - the value of agricultural land without planning permission is low.)
    I am making the best use of my property. By living in it with my family. A big rise in tax will disincentivise me from spending any of my remaining money elsewhere.

    Still, now we know. The Tories will steal my house after I've died of dementia. Labour will steal it while I'm still alive and compos mentis

    Incidentally, has anyone heard from the Lib Dems? They seem to have vanished.........

    LD have vanished which is why they are heading for ONE seat :lol:
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Tories will get more votes by mentioning that 'Garden Tax' than this IRA stuff.
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    kle4 said:

    camel said:

    Have we found out whether Abbot will be appearing for Labour on Tuesday's show. After tonight's turgidity, the gaiety of the nation needs adding to.

    will she sport a new afro?
    Corbyn has to go. He's a decent performer and is flush with confidence. Thornberry would probably do ok, but Abbott would just mess things up.
    spoilsport!
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Pulpstar said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    surbiton said:

    RobD said:

    Not sure this has been posted in a while.... Corbyn IRA ad now on 3.5 million views. :p

    Are people watching repeats ?
    Yes, a lot of those viewings are me, it's like crack cocaine. The structure is masterly: 3 acts - jezza solo speeches with transcripts in act 1, dialogue with beautiful woman in act 2, and then fade to black with the telephone dial tone at the end, as good as Brighton Rock.

    It has put on 525000 views since teatime.
    I haven't seen this at all..
    https://order-order.com/2017/05/27/corbyn-ira-attack-ad-hits-1-million-views/
  • Options
    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited May 2017

    Pong said:

    My mind is made up.

    I could have swung one of three ways, but ultimately I can't condone either the tories or labour leaderships and manifestos.

    I'm going to be voting for Tim (not a sin).

    Wow, that's two votes the LDs have got, Pong! Both are for different reasons, I'm sure, but it's two more than some thought they might get.
    Yeah.

    The frustrating thing is this was the IDEAL election for the Lib dems.

    They had the chance to present themselves as a serious and competent alternative government, pursuing a super-soft brexit. They could have got ~40%.

    Sadly, Tim (not a sin) ain't no Trudeau.
  • Options
    hoveitehoveite Posts: 43
    Pulpstar said:

    hoveite said:

    Labour planning new ‘Garden Tax’ which would see council tax TREBLE

    Small print from Labour’s manifesto reveals a proposal to replace council tax with a new Land Value Tax

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3676113/labour-planning-new-garden-tax-which-would-see-council-tax-treble/

    Bit of a disconnect. Council tax is a land value tax. All this is is a big rise in Council Tax.
    No it's not council tax is a land occupation tax as it's paid by the occupier not the owner.

    Eh ?

    In my case that's the same person. But surely Labour should tax the OWNERS - this stinks to high heaven if it is on the occupiers !
    More taxes for generation rent - is this right ?
    As far as I can tell the Labour manifesto doesn't give the details of how the tax would be levied.

    But the phrase "land value tax" wasn't coined in the Labour manifesto. And "land value tax" is generally understood to be a form of wealth tax - and wealth taxes are levied on the owners of assets not the users.

    My point was that calling council tax a land value tax is misleading as it is paid by occupiers.

  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961

    Labour planning new ‘Garden Tax’ which would see council tax TREBLE

    Small print from Labour’s manifesto reveals a proposal to replace council tax with a new Land Value Tax

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3676113/labour-planning-new-garden-tax-which-would-see-council-tax-treble/

    WHAT?

    That's another reason to be glad Labour won't win the next election. Jesus....

    Sun bollocks otherwise I am sure Tories would have mentioned it surely
    Apparently it's in the manifesto...
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,200
    AndyJS said:

    marke09 said:

    now official

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 2m2 minutes ago

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 43% (-)
    LAB: 37% (+3)
    LDEM: 8% (-)
    UKIP: 4% (-)

    (via @Survation / 26 - 27 May)

    I think we had this poll a few hours ago. It isn't new.
    Oh I didn't read PB until the "debate".
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,077
    edited May 2017

    She's a liar liar now no2 in I tunes chart

    Not on Apple Music or Spotify where it matters.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,821

    Tories will get more votes by mentioning that 'Garden Tax' than this IRA stuff.

    If it's true.
  • Options
    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    fitalass said:

    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    marke09 said:

    now official

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 2m2 minutes ago

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 43% (-)
    LAB: 37% (+3)
    LDEM: 8% (-)
    UKIP: 4% (-)

    (via @Survation / 26 - 27 May)

    Stunning!

    Yeah, about in line with others. Lab up, Tory steady, polls either adjusting for not expecting young to turnout as they say they will, or banking on them actually doing it this time.
    Labour's advance is at the expense of Greens and SNP (the latter now down to a very low 2%),
    Agreed.

    Stephen Daisley in the Scottish Daily Mail - The SNP is on the attack because it has nothing to defend
    'If it wasn’t for their election blunders, the SNP would have no campaign at all.'
    The smell of desperation thickens the air. Yesterday, a Sunday newspaper which functions as the Murrell Family Round Robin splashed across its front page Miss Sturgeon’s dire warning: ‘Just ten days to save Scotland from the Tories’. Save us from what? Are they going to make Jackson Carlaw Sings the Best of Gilbert and Sullivan a mandatory unit in the Curriculum for Excellence? Or send Murdo Fraser round to rearrange everyone’s flower bed into the pattern of a Union Jack?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,899
    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    PREDICTION

    Seats
    Conservatives 350 (+19)
    Labour 221 (-10)
    SNP 47 (-9)
    Lib Dems 10 (+2)
    Others 22 (-2)
    TORY MAJORITY 50

    Vote Shares
    Conservatives 43% +6%
    Labour 33% +3%
    Lib Dems 11% +3%
    UKIP 3% -9%



    TORY GAINS FROM LABOUR (18)
    Halifax, Wirral West, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Wolverhampton South West, Dewsbury, North East Derbyshire, Middlesbrough South, Walsall North, Wrexham, Wakefield, (Copeland), Stoke South, Clwyd South, Darlington, Scunthorpe, Dudley North, Great Grimsby

    TORY GAINS FROM SNP (5)
    Berwickshire, East Renfrewshire, Dumfries & Galloway, Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine, Aberdeen South

    TORY GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (2)
    Southport, North Norfolk, (Richmond Park)

    TORY GAIN FROM UKIP (1)
    Clacton


    LABOUR GAINS FROM TORIES (4)
    Bury North, Brighton Kemptown, Cardiff North, Bristol North West

    LABOUR GAINS FROM SNP (2)
    Edinburgh North & Leith, East Lothian

    LABOUR GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (1)
    Leeds North West

    LABOUR GAINS FROM GREENS (1)
    Brighton Pavilion


    LIB DEM GAINS FROM TORIES (3)
    Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Bath

    LIB DEM GAINS FROM SNP (2)
    East Dunbartonshire, Edinburgh West
    Bristol NW has a majority of nearly 10%.

    You'd be better replacing it with Croydon Central.

    Nor will Labour gain Bury North if there is a swing to the Conservatives in northern England.

    I've had a strong feeling about Bristol NW for a while. It was VERY pro-Remain (I think either that or Bath was the most Remain Tory seat outside of London), and there is some demographic change going on there, albeit not as fast demographic change as a true "inner city" seat.

    Bury North is a bit more of a stretch, but Labour's results in the Greater Manchester mayoral election really were RIP-ROARINGLY good -- I'm not sure all of that was a personal vote for Burnham.
    Obviously you won't get it perfectly correct but fair play for putting a projection out there :)
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961

    Tories will get more votes by mentioning that 'Garden Tax' than this IRA stuff.

    If it's true.
    The line from the manifesto, according to the sun is...

    Labour’s manifesto commits the party to a review into “reforming council tax and business rates and consider new options such as a land value tax”.
  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,288
    @Danny565

    Don't know where you got those figures or predictions from but they look pretty plausible to me.

    Thanks for sharing them.
  • Options
    JasonJason Posts: 1,614

    Tories will get more votes by mentioning that 'Garden Tax' than this IRA stuff.

    If it's true.
    Or maybe even if it isn't.
  • Options
    ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Brendan O'Neill on Fb:

    'Jeremy Paxman is such an oafish, boorish barker of pointless questions, like that drunk angry uncle who ruins the barbecue by yelling "BALLS" at anyone who disagrees with him. Who seriously thinks this is good journalism? If Corbyn or May tell him to fuck off they'll instantly win tens of thousands of new voters, possibly including me.'
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,691
    Pulpstar said:

    hoveite said:

    Labour planning new ‘Garden Tax’ which would see council tax TREBLE

    Small print from Labour’s manifesto reveals a proposal to replace council tax with a new Land Value Tax

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3676113/labour-planning-new-garden-tax-which-would-see-council-tax-treble/

    Bit of a disconnect. Council tax is a land value tax. All this is is a big rise in Council Tax.
    No it's not council tax is a land occupation tax as it's paid by the occupier not the owner.

    Eh ?

    In my case that's the same person. But surely Labour should tax the OWNERS - this stinks to high heaven if it is on the occupiers !
    More taxes for generation rent - is this right ?
    If it's a proper Land Value Tax it should be on the owners, not the occupiers, because it's a tax on the potential fully exploited value of the land. ie you would pay the same tax on an undeveloped piece of land as on one with houses built on it, assuming the first has planning permission. The benefit claimed for LVT is that unlike other taxes its incentives are beneficial, not perverse. By contrast income tax discourages employment; rates discourage development.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,624

    Tories will get more votes by mentioning that 'Garden Tax' than this IRA stuff.

    Surely countered by the Tories stealing if from people with dementia stuff?
    Pong said:

    Pong said:

    My mind is made up.

    I could have swung one of three ways, but ultimately I can't condone either the tories or labour leaderships and manifestos.

    I'm going to be voting for Tim (not a sin).

    Wow, that's two votes the LDs have got, Pong! Both are for different reasons, I'm sure, but it's two more than some thought they might get.
    Yeah.

    The frustrating thing is this was the IDEAL election for the Lib dems.

    They had the chance to present themselves as a serious and competent alternative government, pursuing a super-soft brexit. They could have got ~40%.

    Sadly, Tim (not a sin) ain't no Trudeau.
    IDK, maybe Farron also has a rocking set of abs (I am given to understand).

    I think 40 is pushing it, but I thought they could at least push toward 20 seats if things went well. Now 5 is more likely than that.

    I'm still undecided on that front. I like enough of the Tory pitch, in terms of I think it realistic, and dislike Corbyn enough to the point I should vote for them, but May is not very good. Farron isn't good either, but there are some decent LD ideas, and I feel bad for them and want third parties to do well and know the local candidate. As it doesn't matter in a safe seat its about going with my gut, and usually I'd consider local effort, but there's been nothing so far from anyone (LDs probably off fighting in Bath anyway), but my gut is uncertain.
  • Options
    JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    Is Corbyn a closet Muslim? He described Islam as a 'wonderful religion'. That's not going to win many WWC votes.

  • Options
    PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    Cyclefree said:

    RobD said:



    Bit of a disconnect. Council tax is a land value tax. All this is is a big rise in Council Tax.

    Not in the traditional, Georgist, sense, no.
    The point of LVT is that it's based on the undeveloped value of the land - hence no dead-weight loss from disincentivising development.
    Council tax is based on the value of the property, particularly the house. Equivalent parcels of land containing a bungalow and six-bedroom mansion are in very different bands. A pure LVT would charge each the same.
    Sounds pretty regressive, unless I am missing something?
    Indeed you're not. But a basic result from economics is that lump-sum taxes are more efficient than a proportionate or unit tax, because their unavoidable nature reduces economic distortion, since there is no incentive to reduce production/consumption to avoid it.
    Regressive, hence inequitable, and therefore not necessarily welfare-maximising, but efficient.
    The point of LVT in particular is that it's levied on the value of land if it were unimproved - hence incentivising people to make best use of the land they own, and not penalising them for improving/developing it.
    (The effect on agricultural land would be pretty small - the value of agricultural land without planning permission is low.)
    I am making the best use of my property. By living in it with my family. A big rise in tax will disincentivise me from spending any of my remaining money elsewhere.
    Still, now we know. The Tories will steal my house after I've died of dementia. Labour will steal it while I'm still alive and compos mentis
    Incidentally, has anyone heard from the Lib Dems? They seem to have vanished.........
    Not vanished at all, Mrs Cyclefree - but certainly a bit cheesed off by all the hardline Tory cheerleading on PB.

    Mr Ears seems to have a very good understanding of SVT, if I may say so without appearing to condescend. It is a tax on the value of the land, as if it had not been developed. It makes no difference if you have one house built on it, no houses, or ten houses.

    The moral case is that you yourself have not increased the value of the land (in all probability), instead its increase arises from the infrastructure that has been put in round it, such as road access and drainage, and the increased value placed upon it by the granting of planning permission - by the local council on behalf of society.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,899
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    surbiton said:

    RobD said:

    Not sure this has been posted in a while.... Corbyn IRA ad now on 3.5 million views. :p

    Are people watching repeats ?
    Yes, a lot of those viewings are me, it's like crack cocaine. The structure is masterly: 3 acts - jezza solo speeches with transcripts in act 1, dialogue with beautiful woman in act 2, and then fade to black with the telephone dial tone at the end, as good as Brighton Rock.

    It has put on 525000 views since teatime.
    I haven't seen this at all..
    https://order-order.com/2017/05/27/corbyn-ira-attack-ad-hits-1-million-views/
    Miles better than that Theresa May shite the Tories have pumped out today !
  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Tax on homes 'to treble under Labour plans for Land Value Tax'

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/29/tax-homes-treble-labour-plans-land-value-tax/
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,624
    hoveite said:

    Pulpstar said:

    hoveite said:

    Labour planning new ‘Garden Tax’ which would see council tax TREBLE

    Small print from Labour’s manifesto reveals a proposal to replace council tax with a new Land Value Tax

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3676113/labour-planning-new-garden-tax-which-would-see-council-tax-treble/

    Bit of a disconnect. Council tax is a land value tax. All this is is a big rise in Council Tax.
    No it's not council tax is a land occupation tax as it's paid by the occupier not the owner.

    Eh ?

    In my case that's the same person. But surely Labour should tax the OWNERS - this stinks to high heaven if it is on the occupiers !
    More taxes for generation rent - is this right ?
    As far as I can tell the Labour manifesto doesn't give the details of how the tax would be levied.

    But the phrase "land value tax" wasn't coined in the Labour manifesto. And "land value tax" is generally understood to be a form of wealth tax - and wealth taxes are levied on the owners of assets not the users.

    My point was that calling council tax a land value tax is misleading as it is paid by occupiers.

    We will initiate a review into reforming council tax and business rates and consider new options such as a land value tax, to ensure local government has sustainable funding for the long term

    Not much in that, unless there's more hidden away-seems like the detail is from 'Labour blueprint for the tax from 2015' according to the story?

    I do like how the story refers to as 'small print', a phrase designed to make us suspicious.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,899
    What will the Sun and Mail run with - Labour garden tax bombshell or Corbyn Falklands gaffe :p ?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,624
    PClipp said:

    Cyclefree said:

    RobD said:



    Bit of a disconnect. Council tax is a land value tax. All this is is a big rise in Council Tax.

    Not in the traditional, Georgist, sense, no.
    The point of LVT is that it's based on the undeveloped value of the land - hence no dead-weight loss from disincentivising development.
    Council tax is based on the value of the property, particularly the house. Equivalent parcels of land containing a bungalow and six-bedroom mansion are in very different bands. A pure LVT would charge each the same.
    Sounds pretty regressive, unless I am missing something?
    Indeed you're not. But a basic result from economics is that lump-sum taxes are more efficient than a proportionate or unit tax, because their unavoidable nature reduces economic distortion, since there is no incentive to reduce production/consumption to avoid it.
    Regressive, hence inequitable, and therefore not necessarily welfare-maximising, but efficient.
    The point of LVT in particular is that it's levied on the value of land if it were unimproved - hence incentivising people to make best use of the land they own, and not penalising them for improving/developing it.
    (The effect on agricultural land would be pretty small - the value of agricultural land without planning permission is low.)
    I am making the best use of my property. By living in it with my family. A big rise in tax will disincentivise me from spending any of my remaining money elsewhere.
    Still, now we know. The Tories will steal my house after I've died of dementia. Labour will steal it while I'm still alive and compos mentis
    Incidentally, has anyone heard from the Lib Dems? They seem to have vanished.........
    Not vanished at all, Mrs Cyclefree - but certainly a bit cheesed off by all the hardline Tory cheerleading on PB.

    .
    Not pleased by the Tory bedwetting?
  • Options
    ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    edited May 2017
    Jason said:

    Is Corbyn a closet Muslim? He described Islam as a 'wonderful religion'. That's not going to win many WWC votes.

    Orly. I wonder which other religions he thinks are 'wonderful'. Fiver says he doesn't include Judaism and Christianity on his list.

  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    kle4 said:

    Tories will get more votes by mentioning that 'Garden Tax' than this IRA stuff.

    Surely countered by the Tories stealing if from people with dementia stuff?
    Pong said:

    Pong said:

    My mind is made up.

    I could have swung one of three ways, but ultimately I can't condone either the tories or labour leaderships and manifestos.

    I'm going to be voting for Tim (not a sin).

    Wow, that's two votes the LDs have got, Pong! Both are for different reasons, I'm sure, but it's two more than some thought they might get.
    Yeah.

    The frustrating thing is this was the IDEAL election for the Lib dems.

    They had the chance to present themselves as a serious and competent alternative government, pursuing a super-soft brexit. They could have got ~40%.

    Sadly, Tim (not a sin) ain't no Trudeau.
    IDK, maybe Farron also has a rocking set of abs (I am given to understand).

    I think 40 is pushing it, but I thought they could at least push toward 20 seats if things went well. Now 5 is more likely than that.

    I'm still undecided on that front. I like enough of the Tory pitch, in terms of I think it realistic, and dislike Corbyn enough to the point I should vote for them, but May is not very good. Farron isn't good either, but there are some decent LD ideas, and I feel bad for them and want third parties to do well and know the local candidate. As it doesn't matter in a safe seat its about going with my gut, and usually I'd consider local effort, but there's been nothing so far from anyone (LDs probably off fighting in Bath anyway), but my gut is uncertain.
    I think the proposal of a cap has somewhat detoxified the dementia tax issue.

    After all a cap was what was proposed under the coalition.

    Anyway, I'll find a pdf of Labour's manifesto to see whether this Garden tax stuff is true.
  • Options
    JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    kle4 said:

    Tories will get more votes by mentioning that 'Garden Tax' than this IRA stuff.

    Surely countered by the Tories stealing if from people with dementia stuff?
    Pong said:

    Pong said:

    My mind is made up.

    I could have swung one of three ways, but ultimately I can't condone either the tories or labour leaderships and manifestos.

    I'm going to be voting for Tim (not a sin).

    Wow, that's two votes the LDs have got, Pong! Both are for different reasons, I'm sure, but it's two more than some thought they might get.
    Yeah.

    The frustrating thing is this was the IDEAL election for the Lib dems.

    They had the chance to present themselves as a serious and competent alternative government, pursuing a super-soft brexit. They could have got ~40%.

    Sadly, Tim (not a sin) ain't no Trudeau.
    IDK, maybe Farron also has a rocking set of abs (I am given to understand).

    I think 40 is pushing it, but I thought they could at least push toward 20 seats if things went well. Now 5 is more likely than that.

    I'm still undecided on that front. I like enough of the Tory pitch, in terms of I think it realistic, and dislike Corbyn enough to the point I should vote for them, but May is not very good. Farron isn't good either, but there are some decent LD ideas, and I feel bad for them and want third parties to do well and know the local candidate. As it doesn't matter in a safe seat its about going with my gut, and usually I'd consider local effort, but there's been nothing so far from anyone (LDs probably off fighting in Bath anyway), but my gut is uncertain.
    Bimey, kle, even your gut is indecisive? So your thumb hovering over the fire button for the remote drone would remain hovering, much like Mr Corbyn's, while our erstwhile terrorist gives you the finger and buggars off?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,624

    kle4 said:

    Tories will get more votes by mentioning that 'Garden Tax' than this IRA stuff.

    Surely countered by the Tories stealing if from people with dementia stuff?
    Pong said:

    Pong said:

    My mind is made up.

    I could have swung one of three ways, but ultimately I can't condone either the tories or labour leaderships and manifestos.

    I'm going to be voting for Tim (not a sin).

    Wow, that's two votes the LDs have got, Pong! Both are for different reasons, I'm sure, but it's two more than some thought they might get.
    Yeah.

    The frustrating thing is this was the IDEAL election for the Lib dems.

    They had the chance to present themselves as a serious and competent alternative government, pursuing a super-soft brexit. They could have got ~40%.

    Sadly, Tim (not a sin) ain't no Trudeau.
    IDK, maybe Farron also has a rocking set of abs (I am given to understand).

    I think 40 is pushing it, but I thought they could at least push toward 20 seats if things went well. Now 5 is more likely than that.

    I'm still undecided on that front. I like enough of the Tory pitch, in terms of I think it realistic, and dislike Corbyn enough to the point I should vote for them, but May is not very good. Farron isn't good either, but there are some decent LD ideas, and I feel bad for them and want third parties to do well and know the local candidate. As it doesn't matter in a safe seat its about going with my gut, and usually I'd consider local effort, but there's been nothing so far from anyone (LDs probably off fighting in Bath anyway), but my gut is uncertain.
    I think the proposal of a cap has somewhat detoxified the dementia tax issue.

    After all a cap was what was proposed under the coalition.

    Anyway, I'll find a pdf of Labour's manifesto to see whether this Garden tax stuff is true.
    It just says there will be a review into reforming council tax and consider options such as a land value tax - the drama of the detail seems to come from an old 'blueprint' of how such an option would work.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,821
    FF43 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    hoveite said:

    Labour planning new ‘Garden Tax’ which would see council tax TREBLE

    Small print from Labour’s manifesto reveals a proposal to replace council tax with a new Land Value Tax

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3676113/labour-planning-new-garden-tax-which-would-see-council-tax-treble/

    Bit of a disconnect. Council tax is a land value tax. All this is is a big rise in Council Tax.
    No it's not council tax is a land occupation tax as it's paid by the occupier not the owner.

    Eh ?

    In my case that's the same person. But surely Labour should tax the OWNERS - this stinks to high heaven if it is on the occupiers !
    More taxes for generation rent - is this right ?
    If it's a proper Land Value Tax it should be on the owners, not the occupiers, because it's a tax on the potential fully exploited value of the land. ie you would pay the same tax on an undeveloped piece of land as on one with houses built on it, assuming the first has planning permission. The benefit claimed for LVT is that unlike other taxes its incentives are beneficial, not perverse. By contrast income tax discourages employment; rates discourage development.
    Winston Churchill was in favour of one. No reason why it will cost more than Council Tax for ordinates. Supposed to be more progressive than CT and it's on owners don't believe Sun lies
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793

    Tax on homes 'to treble under Labour plans for Land Value Tax'

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/29/tax-homes-treble-labour-plans-land-value-tax/

    Nothing like a Labour "tax bombshell" to liven up a general election campaign... :D
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,624
    Pulpstar said:

    What will the Sun and Mail run with - Labour garden tax bombshell or Corbyn Falklands gaffe :p ?

    Hmm

    Corbyn: Wouldn't defend Falkland Gardens, happy to take yours!
  • Options
    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    FF43 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    hoveite said:

    Labour planning new ‘Garden Tax’ which would see council tax TREBLE

    Small print from Labour’s manifesto reveals a proposal to replace council tax with a new Land Value Tax

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3676113/labour-planning-new-garden-tax-which-would-see-council-tax-treble/

    Bit of a disconnect. Council tax is a land value tax. All this is is a big rise in Council Tax.
    No it's not council tax is a land occupation tax as it's paid by the occupier not the owner.

    Eh ?

    In my case that's the same person. But surely Labour should tax the OWNERS - this stinks to high heaven if it is on the occupiers !
    More taxes for generation rent - is this right ?
    If it's a proper Land Value Tax it should be on the owners, not the occupiers, because it's a tax on the potential fully exploited value of the land. ie you would pay the same tax on an undeveloped piece of land as on one with houses built on it, assuming the first has planning permission. The benefit claimed for LVT is that unlike other taxes its incentives are beneficial, not perverse. By contrast income tax discourages employment; rates discourage development.
    How do you stop landlords passing it on to their tenants through increased rent?
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793
    edited May 2017
    OK finished.

    Jezza did well with Faisal but struggled with Paxman.

    Tezza was hesistent throought but did marginally better with Paxman.

    Scores on the doors:

    Jezza 6

    Tezza 5

    Faisal 5 (Nice to see he's calmed the hell down after his post-Brexit breakdown)

    Paxman 1 (As puffed up and self-absorbed as ever)
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,624
    Jason said:

    kle4 said:

    Tories will get more votes by mentioning that 'Garden Tax' than this IRA stuff.

    Surely countered by the Tories stealing if from people with dementia stuff?
    Pong said:

    Pong said:

    My mind is made up.

    I could have swung one of three ways, but ultimately I can't condone either the tories or labour leaderships and manifestos.

    I'm going to be voting for Tim (not a sin).

    Wow, that's two votes the LDs have got, Pong! Both are for different reasons, I'm sure, but it's two more than some thought they might get.
    Yeah.

    The frustrating thing is this was the IDEAL election for the Lib dems.

    They had the chance to present themselves as a serious and competent alternative government, pursuing a super-soft brexit. They could have got ~40%.

    Sadly, Tim (not a sin) ain't no Trudeau.
    IDK, maybe Farron also has a rocking set of abs (I am given to understand).

    I think 40 is pushing it, but I thought they could at least push toward 20 seats if things went well. Now 5 is more likely than that.

    I'm still undecided on that front. I like enough of the Tory pitch, in terms of I think it realistic, and dislike Corbyn enough to the point I should vote for them, but May is not very good. Farron isn't good either, but there are some decent LD ideas, and I feel bad for them and want third parties to do well and know the local candidate. As it doesn't matter in a safe seat its about going with my gut, and usually I'd consider local effort, but there's been nothing so far from anyone (LDs probably off fighting in Bath anyway), but my gut is uncertain.
    Bimey, kle, even your gut is indecisive? So your thumb hovering over the fire button for the remote drone would remain hovering, much like Mr Corbyn's, while our erstwhile terrorist gives you the finger and buggars off?
    My thumb would be decisive, it's one of the few parts of me that is decisive.

    There are only a few things in life I am truly firm on though.

    Skimmed milk is, in the words of Ron Swanson, water that is lying about being milk. And
    Coffee is the devil's drink.
  • Options
    PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    edited May 2017

    Tax on homes 'to treble under Labour plans for Land Value Tax'

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/29/tax-homes-treble-labour-plans-land-value-tax/

    Groan.... only if you (the Labour Party) want to increase the tax take. If you decide that the Land Tax has to raise the same amount as the Council Tax does now, the total will be exactly the same - surprise, surprise! But it will be more fairly and broadly based, so Tory land-speculators will be hit by it. But that is not a bad thing, is it? After all, they have done nothing to bring about its increase in value.

    Why am I defending something in the Labour Party manifesto? Probably because of the long association of this policy with the Liberal Party; and also because I don`t believe the Labour Party will really do anything as sensible and reasonable as this. Two general elections, they were fully in favour of AV voting.

    And then scuppered it when they had the chance to bring it into being.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,821
    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What will the Sun and Mail run with - Labour garden tax bombshell or Corbyn Falklands gaffe :p ?

    Hmm

    Corbyn: Wouldn't defend Falkland Gardens, happy to take yours!
    Cornyn loves gardens loves gardeners. What next Sun says Cornyn wants a tax on jam making
  • Options
    JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    Pulpstar said:

    What will the Sun and Mail run with - Labour garden tax bombshell or Corbyn Falklands gaffe :p ?

    The Falklands gaffe (although it's not really a gaffe because he meant it) will repulse most right minded people of a certain age, but I doubt it will change much VI.

    The garden tax, on the other hand, has the potential to be fatal.
This discussion has been closed.