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  • Options
    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,972
    surbiton said:

    UKIP might win a seat after all?

    But Farage won't.
    Wouldn't that just be a sad irony ...
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,711
    Pulpstar said:

    How appalling is it that the bloody French have managed to get a better leader than ANY of our choices on offer.
    It's making me green with envy looking at that kantar seat projection.

    Although it has to be said the alternatives in the French election were dire as well
  • Options
    MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    If I got to play God/Gove with the curriculum:

    More of:
    Basic statistics, probability, creative writing, financial education, genre fiction, philosophy,

    Less:
    Shakespeare, logarithms, geometry, reading plays, plants in biology, traditional sports, Romans and Ancient Egyptians.

    Compulsory reading hour once a week where kids choose what they want to read.

    All essays in exams to have word limits.

    That was a fun rant anyway. Totally subjective!

    I'm very familiar with the A* - G GCSE Maths curriculum (now being phased out), and I can assure you that logarithms are not mentioned, whereas statistics and probability figure quite prominently.
    Ah okay. Things have changed since the 2000s.
    That claim about our MPs not knowing chance of two heads in a row was horrifying to me.
    No, logarithms have not been in part of the GCSE Maths syllabus - either the now-departed A*-G, nor the IGCSE, nor the new 9-1 course. I have a textbook from the first maths GCSE courses in the 1980s and no logs there either. They vanished from the syllabus when the O-level did.

    The new 9-1 somewhat downweights the statistics and probability unfortunately, though the content is still there (just given a lower percentage weighting). Compared to foreign maths curriculums, the British one still does an unusually large amount of stats.

    Incidentally, I think the removal of logs was a bit of a shame. It's a concept that I think is best learned early, like wot when I did it, rather than left to A-level when candidates often struggle with it when it's introduced in an abstract/algebraic way. If you have several years of familiarity with them as a basic numerical tool, then that kind of fluency comes much more easily.

    I use logs and exponentials when doing my long-term financial planning all the time, so I am a bit surprised at wanting it more financial education and less logs!
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,860
    Corbyn will make The Daily Mail pay their taxes. It’s no wonder they’ve absolutely lost their sh*t again!

    kjohnw said:

    bobajobPB said:

    Richard T

    Sam

    Strange to think, but if Ed Balls was leader, Labour would waltz home with a majority of 30-50.

    Yeh because Lab voters love Tory lite Manifestos
    what surprises me is how little scrutiny that the Labour Party manifesto has received when it is just a promise box of spending spending spending to bribe the voters telling them what they want to hear and completely ignoring the problem of the deficit and Britains astronomical debts and the bankruptcy that would ensue if it were to be implemented . In the end it will be the poor that would suffer most from their manifesto when unemployment hits 5 million and inflation rates go through the roof - yet the Tories and the media have not even attempted to dissemble labours crank pot manifesto ,they are giving Corbyn a free ride
    And yet it is the Conservative manifesto which is uncosted. You might not like Labour's assumptions or even its arithmetic but at least they are there.
    It might be uncosted but then the Conservatives hardly have a reputation for spraying money around, either in office over the last seven years, or in the nature of the manifesto launch. Labour, by contrast, does have a reputational and credibility issue there.
    It might be uncosted but

    Not really good enough is it
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    My flat is in a block which is the last in the constituency. So far I've had leaflets from Labour and the Lib Dems for the correct constituency and the Greens, the Workers' Revolutionary Party and the Christian People's Alliance for the wrong constituency.

    Workers' Revolutionary Party it is then.
    Not an option for me, sadly.

    The Lib Dems managed a spectacular bar chart, up to their very highest standards. It made me kind of happy to see that old traditions continue.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,432

    Can we please have an outbreak of Foot and Mouth - just a teensy weensy one, in which just three cows have to perish - but enough to stop the General Election and restart it again in a month. When the Tories have booted their entire campaign team up the arse and gone full metal jacket on Labour's complete bollocks of an economic policy?

    Ta.

    Well we've had several cases of foot in mouth disease in this campaign.
  • Options
    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Don't forget the other parties can't and won't comment. It needs that to gain real traction in VI.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,745

    Fenster said:

    kjohnw said:

    bobajobPB said:

    Richard T

    Sam

    Strange to think, but if Ed Balls was leader, Labour would waltz home with a majority of 30-50.

    Yeh because Lab voters love Tory lite Manifestos
    what surprises me is how little scrutiny that the Labour Party manifesto has received when it is just a promise box of spending spending spending to bribe the voters telling them what they want to hear and completely ignoring the problem of the deficit and Britains astronomical debts and the bankruptcy that would ensue if it were to be implemented . In the end it will be the poor that would suffer most from their manifesto when unemployment hits 5 million and inflation rates go through the roof - yet the Tories and the media have not even attempted to dissemble labours crank pot manifesto ,they are giving Corbyn a free ride
    That is precisely my thoughts. I cannot understand why Theresa May or Hammond haven't shredded labour on their anti business, anti aspiration, high tax, high borrowing, inheritance tax and Land tax proposals.

    The team behind TM need to be sacked after this fiasco and I am disappointed in how the campaign has been fought

    The Tories are too polite. They were under Cameron and they are now. Bunch of wusses when it comes to going on the offensive.

    They should employ SeanT as their attack dog.
    Yes, because he's strong and stable, definitely not prone to u-turns. No siree!
    You chain up attack dogs and release them when pointed in the right directions, before tugging them back if they go elsewhere.
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    kle4 said:

    If 20 MPs had been charged, the CPS's decision might have affected the election directly. I expect that one MP being charged will not do so and instead its effects will be indirect: taking away oxygen from other stories today and preventing the Conservatives re-establishing any kind of momentum.

    They've been terrible at establishing that after the very first week. Truly terrible, as they assumed anyone hearing Corbyn would not like him. Either they will be right in the end and the polls are all nonsense (even the ones with big Tory leads are down on those leads, albeit the share is not hugely down), or the campaign chiefs should get fired, and Crosby's no messiah.
    I am not sure anybody really believed 25 point leads. When it came down to 14-15 that seems more likely, but now we are talking 3-8...Either it is polling disaster mkII or may / crosby / messina have run the worst campaign in history.
    It's a media-driven feedback loop. Poll says Tory lead less than last time -> media story about how poor the Tory campaign is -> General Public pickup a vibe of incompetence -> repeat...

    So if the rumours today that DD is to go to the FCO and Ben Gummer to take over as Brexit minister than we are all seriously doomed. DD has been the most effective speaker on Question Time recently and seems well up on his brief. Theresa May's belief in loyalty above all seems like Corynista's love of ideological purity above all. Madness.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,432

    My flat is in a block which is the last in the constituency. So far I've had leaflets from Labour and the Lib Dems for the correct constituency and the Greens, the Workers' Revolutionary Party and the Christian People's Alliance for the wrong constituency.

    Workers' Revolutionary Party it is then.
    Not an option for me, sadly.

    The Lib Dems managed a spectacular bar chart, up to their very highest standards. It made me kind of happy to see that old traditions continue.
    Photo please.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,592
    rkrkrk said:

    If I got to play God/Gove with the curriculum:

    More of:
    Basic statistics, probability, creative writing, financial education, genre fiction, philosophy,

    Less:
    Shakespeare, logarithms, geometry, reading plays, plants in biology, traditional sports, Romans and Ancient Egyptians.

    Compulsory reading hour once a week where kids choose what they want to read.

    All essays in exams to have word limits.

    That was a fun rant anyway. Totally subjective!

    I realise that's slightly tongue in cheek, but surely one of the problems with education is successive education secretaries doing just that ?
    What's wrong with educational pluralism, and why should either you or Gove to anyone else get to impose your particular prejudices on the whole country every five years or so ?
  • Options
    Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    After Marquee Mark castigated Michael Crick on here a few days ago I hope he's gone in search of some humble pie.
  • Options
    freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107

    Has this been mentioned - UKIP tried to stand in Wrexham:

    http://www.wrexham.com/news/ukip-tried-to-stand-in-wrexham-fresh-forms-submitted-minutes-before-deadline-132282.html

    Stitch-up or screw-up. How many other UKIP no-shows are similar.

    Or just another Cardiff politico who thinks they can easily drive to Wrexham between breakfast and lunch?

    Neil Hamilton has apparently stated that he is yet to visit the constituency in which he is standing during this campaign. UKIP clearly aren't taking this election too seriously in many places.
    I think only Tim Aker in Thurrock is campaigning rigorously, the rest are paper candidates, including Nuttall.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,745

    Don't forget the other parties can't and won't comment. It needs that to gain real traction in VI.

    If the Tories were 15 points ahead maybe. But they are 3-12 ahead. People will still see it, and it will add to the general impression, and hit home harder than it would have as a result, even though the others cannot really talk about it. Perhaps.

    As suggested, it knocks the tory chances to regain momentum.
  • Options
    MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    If I got to play God/Gove with the curriculum:

    More of:
    Basic statistics, probability, creative writing, financial education, genre fiction, philosophy,

    Less:
    Shakespeare, logarithms, geometry, reading plays, plants in biology, traditional sports, Romans and Ancient Egyptians.

    Compulsory reading hour once a week where kids choose what they want to read.

    All essays in exams to have word limits.

    That was a fun rant anyway. Totally subjective!

    I'm very familiar with the A* - G GCSE Maths curriculum (now being phased out), and I can assure you that logarithms are not mentioned, whereas statistics and probability figure quite prominently.
    Ah okay. Things have changed since the 2000s.
    That claim about our MPs not knowing chance of two heads in a row was horrifying to me.
    Google "Hannah's sweets" for an example of the probability questions that a good GCSE maths student is expected to be capable of tacking.
    The new 9-1 syllabus has much more emphasis on problem-solving. The candidates who moaned about Hannah's sweets have no idea how lucky they are - that same philosophy of question now drives much of the paper! Even on the Foundation tier, candidates are expected to "think for themselves" much more, though obviously they will be using simpler tools and less algebra. Looking back over the old O-level papers, the 9-1 course may not cover such hard topics, nor have such tough number-crunching (great thing, the pocket calculator) but a surprising amount of them was really quite rote stuff. In terms of brain-engagement and problem-solving the new syllabus is arguably tougher in a good way.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,860
    kle4 said:

    Given Labour have been cutting into the Tory lead on good and bad days for them, then if the Tories cannot create any momentum as seems likely, heading into the weekend, then expect it to be trimmed back further now.

    Labour to 40 in a poll? Believe that figure is going to happen in the election or not, we've almost had it in the polls already, so the chance has to be high.

    CROSSOVER would be funny if unlikely.

    What happened to SWINGBACK this time I miss SWINGBACK Unswingback is just not the same.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited June 2017

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    If I got to play God/Gove with the curriculum:

    More of:
    Basic statistics, probability, creative writing, financial education, genre fiction, philosophy,

    Less:
    Shakespeare, logarithms, geometry, reading plays, plants in biology, traditional sports, Romans and Ancient Egyptians.

    Compulsory reading hour once a week where kids choose what they want to read.

    All essays in exams to have word limits.

    That was a fun rant anyway. Totally subjective!

    I'm very familiar with the A* - G GCSE Maths curriculum (now being phased out), and I can assure you that logarithms are not mentioned, whereas statistics and probability figure quite prominently.
    Ah okay. Things have changed since the 2000s.
    That claim about our MPs not knowing chance of two heads in a row was horrifying to me.
    No, logarithms have not been in part of the GCSE Maths syllabus - either the now-departed A*-G, nor the IGCSE, nor the new 9-1 course. I have a textbook from the first maths GCSE courses in the 1980s and no logs there either. They vanished from the syllabus when the O-level did.

    The new 9-1 somewhat downweights the statistics and probability unfortunately, though the content is still there (just given a lower percentage weighting). Compared to foreign maths curriculums, the British one still does an unusually large amount of stats.

    Incidentally, I think the removal of logs was a bit of a shame. It's a concept that I think is best learned early, like wot when I did it, rather than left to A-level when candidates often struggle with it when it's introduced in an abstract/algebraic way. If you have several years of familiarity with them as a basic numerical tool, then that kind of fluency comes much more easily.

    I use logs and exponentials when doing my long-term financial planning all the time, so I am a bit surprised at wanting it more financial education and less logs!
    The thing is you could introduce them with real world examples really easily eg height of kids in the class -> gaussian distribution -> exponentials / logs.
  • Options
    kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456

    Corbyn will make The Daily Mail pay their taxes. It’s no wonder they’ve absolutely lost their sh*t again!

    kjohnw said:

    bobajobPB said:

    Richard T

    Sam

    Strange to think, but if Ed Balls was leader, Labour would waltz home with a majority of 30-50.

    Yeh because Lab voters love Tory lite Manifestos
    what surprises me is how little scrutiny that the Labour Party manifesto has received when it is just a promise box of spending spending spending to bribe the voters telling them what they want to hear and completely ignoring the problem of the deficit and Britains astronomical debts and the bankruptcy that would ensue if it were to be implemented . In the end it will be the poor that would suffer most from their manifesto when unemployment hits 5 million and inflation rates go through the roof - yet the Tories and the media have not even attempted to dissemble labours crank pot manifesto ,they are giving Corbyn a free ride
    And yet it is the Conservative manifesto which is uncosted. You might not like Labour's assumptions or even its arithmetic but at least they are there.
    It might be uncosted but then the Conservatives hardly have a reputation for spraying money around, either in office over the last seven years, or in the nature of the manifesto launch. Labour, by contrast, does have a reputational and credibility issue there.
    It might be uncosted but

    Not really good enough is it
    the labour manifesto is hardly costed looks like it was done by Diane Abbot. fantasy economics of Venezuela
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419

    kjohnw said:

    bobajobPB said:

    Richard T

    Sam

    Strange to think, but if Ed Balls was leader, Labour would waltz home with a majority of 30-50.

    Yeh because Lab voters love Tory lite Manifestos
    what surprises me is how little scrutiny that the Labour Party manifesto has received when it is just a promise box of spending spending spending to bribe the voters telling them what they want to hear and completely ignoring the problem of the deficit and Britains astronomical debts and the bankruptcy that would ensue if it were to be implemented . In the end it will be the poor that would suffer most from their manifesto when unemployment hits 5 million and inflation rates go through the roof - yet the Tories and the media have not even attempted to dissemble labours crank pot manifesto ,they are giving Corbyn a free ride
    And yet it is the Conservative manifesto which is uncosted. You might not like Labour's assumptions or even its arithmetic but at least they are there.
    It might be uncosted but then the Conservatives hardly have a reputation for spraying money around, either in office over the last seven years, or in the nature of the manifesto launch. Labour, by contrast, does have a reputational and credibility issue there.
    Conservatives may not have a reputation for spraying money around but the last seven years' evidence says otherwise. Most government borrowing ever.
    The evidence says nothing of the sort. It's called an inherited structural deficit and that sort of thing is bloody difficult to close without widespread political backing.

    Put it this way: had Brown been re-elected in 2010 (as he nearly was), do you think Labour would have borrowed less?
  • Options

    rkrkrk said:

    If I got to play God/Gove with the curriculum:

    More of:
    Basic statistics, probability, creative writing, financial education, genre fiction, philosophy,

    Less:
    Shakespeare, logarithms, geometry, reading plays, plants in biology, traditional sports, Romans and Ancient Egyptians.

    Compulsory reading hour once a week where kids choose what they want to read.

    All essays in exams to have word limits.

    That was a fun rant anyway. Totally subjective!

    I'm very familiar with the A* - G GCSE Maths curriculum (now being phased out), and I can assure you that logarithms are not mentioned, whereas statistics and probability figure quite prominently.
    How can do you any real maths without knowledge of logarithms?
    Which real maths did you have in mind?
    Let's take for instance one of the most fundamental principles of science and maths, the gaussian distribution. If you don't know what logs and exponentials are and how to do calculus of functions which involve them you are pretty buggered.

    Most real probability based problems involve looking for things like max log likelihood.

    Etc etc etc
    Yes, but the Gaussian distribution and calculus are A Level, not GCSE topics. Logarithms are, of course, taught at A Level, but it's hard to see any practical point of teaching them at GCSE now that we have pocket calculators for multiplying and dividing.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190

    My flat is in a block which is the last in the constituency. So far I've had leaflets from Labour and the Lib Dems for the correct constituency and the Greens, the Workers' Revolutionary Party and the Christian People's Alliance for the wrong constituency.

    Workers' Revolutionary Party it is then.
    Not an option for me, sadly.

    The Lib Dems managed a spectacular bar chart, up to their very highest standards. It made me kind of happy to see that old traditions continue.
    Photo please.
    I've loaded a Lib Dem bar chart I received in Woking as my avatar.
  • Options
    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    kle4 said:

    Given Labour have been cutting into the Tory lead on good and bad days for them, then if the Tories cannot create any momentum as seems likely, heading into the weekend, then expect it to be trimmed back further now.

    Labour to 40 in a poll? Believe that figure is going to happen in the election or not, we've almost had it in the polls already, so the chance has to be high.

    CROSSOVER would be funny if unlikely.

    What happened to SWINGBACK this time I miss SWINGBACK Unswingback is just not the same.
    You missed swing back, it was that Kantar poll. Did you enjoy it?
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    My flat is in a block which is the last in the constituency. So far I've had leaflets from Labour and the Lib Dems for the correct constituency and the Greens, the Workers' Revolutionary Party and the Christian People's Alliance for the wrong constituency.

    Stolen from Twitter; business idea that Robert might be interested in

    Geolocation app that tell you which constituency you are in while driving/walking...
  • Options
    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    kjohnw said:

    Corbyn will make The Daily Mail pay their taxes. It’s no wonder they’ve absolutely lost their sh*t again!

    kjohnw said:

    bobajobPB said:

    Richard T

    Sam

    Strange to think, but if Ed Balls was leader, Labour would waltz home with a majority of 30-50.

    Yeh because Lab voters love Tory lite Manifestos
    what surprises me is how little scrutiny that the Labour Party manifesto has received when it is just a promise box of spending spending spending to bribe the voters telling them what they want to hear and completely ignoring the problem of the deficit and Britains astronomical debts and the bankruptcy that would ensue if it were to be implemented . In the end it will be the poor that would suffer most from their manifesto when unemployment hits 5 million and inflation rates go through the roof - yet the Tories and the media have not even attempted to dissemble labours crank pot manifesto ,they are giving Corbyn a free ride
    And yet it is the Conservative manifesto which is uncosted. You might not like Labour's assumptions or even its arithmetic but at least they are there.
    It might be uncosted but then the Conservatives hardly have a reputation for spraying money around, either in office over the last seven years, or in the nature of the manifesto launch. Labour, by contrast, does have a reputational and credibility issue there.
    It might be uncosted but

    Not really good enough is it
    the labour manifesto is hardly costed looks like it was done by Diane Abbot. fantasy economics of Venezuela
    It's the most economically flawed manifesto ever produced by a major party. They didn't even try and make it realistic.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited June 2017

    rkrkrk said:

    If I got to play God/Gove with the curriculum:

    More of:
    Basic statistics, probability, creative writing, financial education, genre fiction, philosophy,

    Less:
    Shakespeare, logarithms, geometry, reading plays, plants in biology, traditional sports, Romans and Ancient Egyptians.

    Compulsory reading hour once a week where kids choose what they want to read.

    All essays in exams to have word limits.

    That was a fun rant anyway. Totally subjective!

    I'm very familiar with the A* - G GCSE Maths curriculum (now being phased out), and I can assure you that logarithms are not mentioned, whereas statistics and probability figure quite prominently.
    How can do you any real maths without knowledge of logarithms?
    Which real maths did you have in mind?
    Let's take for instance one of the most fundamental principles of science and maths, the gaussian distribution. If you don't know what logs and exponentials are and how to do calculus of functions which involve them you are pretty buggered.

    Most real probability based problems involve looking for things like max log likelihood.

    Etc etc etc
    Yes, but the Gaussian distribution and calculus are A Level, not GCSE topics. Logarithms are, of course, taught at A Level, but it's hard to see any practical point of teaching them at GCSE now that we have pocket calculators for multiplying and dividing.
    Earlier the better. I don't see any reason a 14 year old cant understand gaussian distribution and actually with ML this stuff is more important than ever.

    I was taught this kind of stuff at 14 along with basic calculus, probibility etc etc etc
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,119
    Chris_A said:

    After Marquee Mark castigated Michael Crick on here a few days ago I hope he's gone in search of some humble pie.

    I don't think Crick was alone in thinking that Thanet was a case that needed looking at.

    I will eat humble pie when Crick apologies for the vast waste of police team and money spent investigating the other seats he crusaded on, much of it based on piss-poor journalism. £1.5m was spent on just one if those cases.....perhaps he could do a follow up investigative piece on how much it all cost?
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,432
    Ipsos MORI

    Con 45 (-4) Lab 40 (+6)
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,860
    edited June 2017
    kjohnw said:

    Corbyn will make The Daily Mail pay their taxes. It’s no wonder they’ve absolutely lost their sh*t again!

    kjohnw said:

    bobajobPB said:

    Richard T

    Sam

    Strange to think, but if Ed Balls was leader, Labour would waltz home with a majority of 30-50.

    Yeh because Lab voters love Tory lite Manifestos
    what surprises me is how little scrutiny that the Labour Party manifesto has received when it is just a promise box of spending spending spending to bribe the voters telling them what they want to hear and completely ignoring the problem of the deficit and Britains astronomical debts and the bankruptcy that would ensue if it were to be implemented . In the end it will be the poor that would suffer most from their manifesto when unemployment hits 5 million and inflation rates go through the roof - yet the Tories and the media have not even attempted to dissemble labours crank pot manifesto ,they are giving Corbyn a free ride
    And yet it is the Conservative manifesto which is uncosted. You might not like Labour's assumptions or even its arithmetic but at least they are there.
    It might be uncosted but then the Conservatives hardly have a reputation for spraying money around, either in office over the last seven years, or in the nature of the manifesto launch. Labour, by contrast, does have a reputational and credibility issue there.
    It might be uncosted but

    Not really good enough is it
    the labour manifesto is hardly costed looks like it was done by Diane Abbot. fantasy economics of Venezuela
    The IFS reckon Lab is out by £8 Bn

    Spreadsheet Phil was out by £20 Bn on HS2 alone and is still on the naughty step

    Only numbers in Tory one is Page Numbers.
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    New Tory Slogan : "A bad Conservative election campaign is preferable to a bad Labour government"
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,119

    Ipsos MORI

    Con 45 (-4) Lab 40 (+6)

    That deserves a WOW!
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,294
    kle4 said:

    Don't forget the other parties can't and won't comment. It needs that to gain real traction in VI.

    If the Tories were 15 points ahead maybe. But they are 3-12 ahead. People will still see it, and it will add to the general impression, and hit home harder than it would have as a result, even though the others cannot really talk about it. Perhaps.

    As suggested, it knocks the tory chances to regain momentum.
    Tonights BBC question time debate is a very big event for Theresa May and it will dominate the news media over the weekend. She also has the final interview with ITV on tuesday night that will feature on wednesday before thursday polling day

  • Options
    OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    Conservative candidate Craig Mackinlay charged over election expenses:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-40129826
  • Options
    freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107
    I don't think anybody seriously believes the labour manifesto is costed, they either know its hogwash or don't care as long as it involves taxing the rich.
  • Options
    BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Ipsos MORI

    Con 45 (-4) Lab 40 (+6)

    The 45 isn't the problem. It's Labour hitting 40!
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,926
    85 for the 2 main parties ?!

    Sweet Jesus.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,294

    Ipsos MORI

    Con 45 (-4) Lab 40 (+6)

    That deserves a WOW!
    That is seriously bad news
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,942
    JonWC said:

    rkrkrk said:

    If I got to play God/Gove with the curriculum:

    More of:
    Basic statistics, probability, creative writing, financial education, genre fiction, philosophy,

    Less:
    Shakespeare, logarithms, geometry, reading plays, plants in biology, traditional sports, Romans and Ancient Egyptians.

    Compulsory reading hour once a week where kids choose what they want to read.

    All essays in exams to have word limits.

    That was a fun rant anyway. Totally subjective!

    I'm very familiar with the A* - G GCSE Maths curriculum (now being phased out), and I can assure you that logarithms are not mentioned, whereas statistics and probability figure quite prominently.
    How can do you any real maths without knowledge of logarithms?
    Which real maths did you have in mind?
    Anything involving the exponential function i.e. calculus, probability would be a struggle? Not so much left.. you wouldn't get too advanced with the algebraic structures side of things either.
    I was surprised to find that Calculus has now moved from GCSE to A level. Again (even though I hated it and still don't get it) it is something with real world applications that should be taught at GCSE level.
  • Options
    camelcamel Posts: 815
    Nigelb said:

    rkrkrk said:

    If I got to play God/Gove with the curriculum:

    More of:
    Basic statistics, probability, creative writing, financial education, genre fiction, philosophy,

    Less:
    Shakespeare, logarithms, geometry, reading plays, plants in biology, traditional sports, Romans and Ancient Egyptians.

    Compulsory reading hour once a week where kids choose what they want to read.

    All essays in exams to have word limits.

    That was a fun rant anyway. Totally subjective!

    I realise that's slightly tongue in cheek, but surely one of the problems with education is successive education secretaries doing just that ?
    What's wrong with educational pluralism, and why should either you or Gove to anyone else get to impose your particular prejudices on the whole country every five years or so ?
    Does multiple choice still play a large part in modern day examinations? When I was at school, we had several papers with multiple choice/multiple guess sections: this was derided by my parents who felt it was a dumbing down from traditional essay-based papers.

    On every day of my subsequent life I have had to make a choices between a range of available options, yet I have never had to write a single essay. My CSEs prepared me well.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285

    Ipsos MORI

    Con 45 (-4) Lab 40 (+6)

    Canada here I come.....
  • Options
    OpenSeasOpenSeas Posts: 7
    They over-promoted her. She's no good.
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908
    Nigelb said:

    rkrkrk said:

    If I got to play God/Gove with the curriculum:

    More of:
    Basic statistics, probability, creative writing, financial education, genre fiction, philosophy,

    Less:
    Shakespeare, logarithms, geometry, reading plays, plants in biology, traditional sports, Romans and Ancient Egyptians.

    Compulsory reading hour once a week where kids choose what they want to read.

    All essays in exams to have word limits.

    That was a fun rant anyway. Totally subjective!

    I realise that's slightly tongue in cheek, but surely one of the problems with education is successive education secretaries doing just that ?
    What's wrong with educational pluralism, and why should either you or Gove to anyone else get to impose your particular prejudices on the whole country every five years or so ?
    Absolutely agree for the main.
    Pluralism would be my main reason for downgrading Shakespeare and upgrading genre fiction.
    I'd argue I'm levelling the imbalance.

    That said sometimes things do become less important or more as times change.

    Word limits in essay subjects seems a no brainer to me.
    I only learned to be concise once I started working.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    I really wonder what the hordes of SPADs do.

    May would be better off if she got someone to read PB all day.

    Actually, I think the problem is lack of SPADs, or at least good ones who are listened to by the PM. It's no coincidence that it took Osborne and Cameron, with their years of experience of seeing how policy presentation goes down and how pratfalls can torpedo even sensible propoals, to get the Conservative back from the doldrums into power.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,119
    Right Theresa, get on the telly and say you will honour the extra £350m a week for the NHS by the end of the next term. Just do it.
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    Oh god, the country is screwed...
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    OpenSeas said:

    They over-promoted her. She's no good.

    She is worse than Gordon Brown
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Laughing like a drain at the MORI. 40?! He's almost hitting Blair 01 levels.
    Tories STILL in the mid 40s as well!
    This is one crazy election.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,432
    edited June 2017
    Lib Dems on 7% (nc)
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    kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456

    kjohnw said:

    Corbyn will make The Daily Mail pay their taxes. It’s no wonder they’ve absolutely lost their sh*t again!

    kjohnw said:

    bobajobPB said:

    Richard T

    Sam

    Strange to think, but if Ed Balls was leader, Labour would waltz home with a majority of 30-50.

    Yeh because Lab voters love Tory lite Manifestos
    what surprises me is how little scrutiny that the Labour Party manifesto has received when it is just a promise box of spending spending spending to bribe the voters telling them what they want to hear and completely ignoring the problem of the deficit and Britains astronomical debts and the bankruptcy that would ensue if it were to be implemented . In the end it will be the poor that would suffer most from their manifesto when unemployment hits 5 million and inflation rates go through the roof - yet the Tories and the media have not even attempted to dissemble labours crank pot manifesto ,they are giving Corbyn a free ride
    And yet it is the Conservative manifesto which is uncosted. You might not like Labour's assumptions or even its arithmetic but at least they are there.
    It might be uncosted but then the Conservatives hardly have a reputation for spraying money around, either in office over the last seven years, or in the nature of the manifesto launch. Labour, by contrast, does have a reputational and credibility issue there.
    It might be uncosted but

    Not really good enough is it
    the labour manifesto is hardly costed looks like it was done by Diane Abbot. fantasy economics of Venezuela
    The IFS reckon Lab is out by £8 Bn

    Spreadsheet Phil was out by £20 Bn on HS2 alone and is still on the naughty step

    Only numbers in Tory one is Page Numbers.
    the IFS didn't include nationalisation costs and free tuition fees for even this year students McDonnell doesn't think that issuing bonds is borrowing
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    kjohnw said:

    bobajobPB said:

    Richard T

    Sam

    Strange to think, but if Ed Balls was leader, Labour would waltz home with a majority of 30-50.

    Yeh because Lab voters love Tory lite Manifestos
    what surprises me is how little scrutiny that the Labour Party manifesto has received when it is just a promise box of spending spending spending to bribe the voters telling them what they want to hear and completely ignoring the problem of the deficit and Britains astronomical debts and the bankruptcy that would ensue if it were to be implemented . In the end it will be the poor that would suffer most from their manifesto when unemployment hits 5 million and inflation rates go through the roof - yet the Tories and the media have not even attempted to dissemble labours crank pot manifesto ,they are giving Corbyn a free ride
    And yet it is the Conservative manifesto which is uncosted. You might not like Labour's assumptions or even its arithmetic but at least they are there.
    It might be uncosted but then the Conservatives hardly have a reputation for spraying money around, either in office over the last seven years, or in the nature of the manifesto launch. Labour, by contrast, does have a reputational and credibility issue there.
    Conservatives may not have a reputation for spraying money around but the last seven years' evidence says otherwise. Most government borrowing ever.
    The evidence says nothing of the sort. It's called an inherited structural deficit and that sort of thing is bloody difficult to close without widespread political backing.

    Put it this way: had Brown been re-elected in 2010 (as he nearly was), do you think Labour would have borrowed less?
    None of the political parties has a record of fiscal discipline.

    They all feel they have to promise to spend spend spend if they want to get re-elected.

    Germany meanwhile has a government budget surplus.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,926
    edited June 2017

    Lib Dems on 7% (nc)

    Greens on zero, one, two ?
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,119
    Pulpstar said:

    85 for the 2 main parties ?!

    Sweet Jesus.

    An utterly polarising election. UKIP - dead. LibDems - dead. Greens - dead.

    Labour with a spring in their step and their hat at a jaunty angle....
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    May is toast whatever happens I think.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    My flat is in a block which is the last in the constituency. So far I've had leaflets from Labour and the Lib Dems for the correct constituency and the Greens, the Workers' Revolutionary Party and the Christian People's Alliance for the wrong constituency.

    Workers' Revolutionary Party it is then.
    Not an option for me, sadly.

    The Lib Dems managed a spectacular bar chart, up to their very highest standards. It made me kind of happy to see that old traditions continue.
    Photo please.
    https://twitter.com/AlastairMeeks/status/870263773998796800
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited June 2017
    One thing is for certain even if the polls are overstating labour a bit and may get homes somehow with a majority, corbynism is here to stay...bye bye sensible centre left labour party.
  • Options
    OpenSeasOpenSeas Posts: 7
    Brom said:

    Ipsos MORI

    Con 45 (-4) Lab 40 (+6)

    The 45 isn't the problem. It's Labour hitting 40!
    It's all a question of the young vote turning out and the reluctant Labour vote migrating back from don't know to Labour.

    The Tories have barely moved, but they're only up there because of this once-in-a-lifetime chance to swallow the UKIP vote.

    May is piss-poor. Very difficult to handle the top job with such poor communication skills. She seems accident-prone as well.

    The Tories have made a terrible mistake.
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    rkrkrk said:

    If I got to play God/Gove with the curriculum:

    More of:
    Basic statistics, probability, creative writing, financial education, genre fiction, philosophy,

    Less:
    Shakespeare, logarithms, geometry, reading plays, plants in biology, traditional sports, Romans and Ancient Egyptians.

    Compulsory reading hour once a week where kids choose what they want to read.

    All essays in exams to have word limits.

    That was a fun rant anyway. Totally subjective!

    I'm very familiar with the A* - G GCSE Maths curriculum (now being phased out), and I can assure you that logarithms are not mentioned, whereas statistics and probability figure quite prominently.
    How can do you any real maths without knowledge of logarithms?
    Which real maths did you have in mind?
    Let's take for instance one of the most fundamental principles of science and maths, the gaussian distribution. If you don't know what logs and exponentials are and how to do calculus of functions which involve them you are pretty buggered.

    Most real probability based problems involve looking for things like max log likelihood.

    Etc etc etc
    Yes, but the Gaussian distribution and calculus are A Level, not GCSE topics. Logarithms are, of course, taught at A Level, but it's hard to see any practical point of teaching them at GCSE now that we have pocket calculators for multiplying and dividing.
    Earlier the better. I don't see any reason a 14 year old cant understand gaussian distribution and actually with ML this stuff is more important than ever.

    I was taught this kind of stuff at 14 along with basic calculus, probibility etc etc etc
    Calculus at 14? Really? I'm 50 years old and did O-Level Maths at school, and I'm almost certain that calculus was only introduced at A-Level.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,745
    Brom said:

    Ipsos MORI

    Con 45 (-4) Lab 40 (+6)

    The 45 isn't the problem. It's Labour hitting 40!
    Indeed - I've said it before and will try not to say again, but how have they almost doubled in a month? No campaign is that good (and the Tories are still in the mid 40s, so their campaign while bad does not explain how the Lab score has risen so high). So many people do not change their minds so much in a month. And this is before yet more bad news hits! Including what is no dount a poor performance on QT. Cross over a genuine possibility, Corbyn getting 2005 scores is likely, and 2001 is possible (albeit only because the LDs are a zombie party).

    Tory majority 30-50 most likely outcome. 10-30 or 50-70 possible. Anything approaching 100 impossible. I bet all those wasted trips to Bolsover and the like look pretty silly now. I certainly don't notice many 'from the doorstep' tales of how bad Corbyn is anymore.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited June 2017
    Maybe if any Momentum poll "rigging" was going on, it was them trying to make the polls artificially bad for Labour earlier this year, in order to lure May into calling an election? :p
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,984

    JonWC said:

    rkrkrk said:

    If I got to play God/Gove with the curriculum:

    More of:
    Basic statistics, probability, creative writing, financial education, genre fiction, philosophy,

    Less:
    Shakespeare, logarithms, geometry, reading plays, plants in biology, traditional sports, Romans and Ancient Egyptians.

    Compulsory reading hour once a week where kids choose what they want to read.

    All essays in exams to have word limits.

    That was a fun rant anyway. Totally subjective!

    I'm very familiar with the A* - G GCSE Maths curriculum (now being phased out), and I can assure you that logarithms are not mentioned, whereas statistics and probability figure quite prominently.
    How can do you any real maths without knowledge of logarithms?
    Which real maths did you have in mind?
    Anything involving the exponential function i.e. calculus, probability would be a struggle? Not so much left.. you wouldn't get too advanced with the algebraic structures side of things either.
    I was surprised to find that Calculus has now moved from GCSE to A level. Again (even though I hated it and still don't get it) it is something with real world applications that should be taught at GCSE level.
    Back in the 50’s my Grammar School had two maths streams, one for high flyers, who were mainly, although not exclusively in the Science Fourth & Fifth and one for everyone else. Th high flyers did Applied Maths, which included calculus, the rest did Pure Maths, which didn’t.
  • Options
    asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276

    Ipsos MORI

    Con 45 (-4) Lab 40 (+6)

    Highest 2 party share since the 80s?
  • Options
    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,715

    Right Theresa, get on the telly and say you will honour the extra £350m a week for the NHS by the end of the next term. Just do it.

    That wouldn't look like panic at all, would it?
    Plus it would remind voters of Leave's biggest lie.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,942

    rkrkrk said:

    If I got to play God/Gove with the curriculum:

    More of:
    Basic statistics, probability, creative writing, financial education, genre fiction, philosophy,

    Less:
    Shakespeare, logarithms, geometry, reading plays, plants in biology, traditional sports, Romans and Ancient Egyptians.

    Compulsory reading hour once a week where kids choose what they want to read.

    All essays in exams to have word limits.

    That was a fun rant anyway. Totally subjective!

    I'm very familiar with the A* - G GCSE Maths curriculum (now being phased out), and I can assure you that logarithms are not mentioned, whereas statistics and probability figure quite prominently.
    How can do you any real maths without knowledge of logarithms?
    Which real maths did you have in mind?
    Let's take for instance one of the most fundamental principles of science and maths, the gaussian distribution. If you don't know what logs and exponentials are and how to do calculus of functions which involve them you are pretty buggered.

    Most real probability based problems involve looking for things like max log likelihood.

    Etc etc etc
    Yes, but the Gaussian distribution and calculus are A Level, not GCSE topics. Logarithms are, of course, taught at A Level, but it's hard to see any practical point of teaching them at GCSE now that we have pocket calculators for multiplying and dividing.
    But if you are going to go and do any science subject at A level and beyond then the GCSE maths at least needs to have provided you with the basics to be able to do those subjects. Moving things like Gaussian distribution and calculus to A level means that many students will never do it.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,060

    Pulpstar said:

    85 for the 2 main parties ?!

    Sweet Jesus.

    An utterly polarising election. UKIP - dead. LibDems - dead. Greens - dead.

    Labour with a spring in their step and their hat at a jaunty angle....
    Whoever thought having an unengaging candidate saying 'It's me or Jeremy Corbyn' was a good idea?
  • Options
    RestharrowRestharrow Posts: 233

    kjohnw said:

    bobajobPB said:

    Richard T

    Sam

    Strange to think, but if Ed Balls was leader, Labour would waltz home with a majority of 30-50.

    Yeh because Lab voters love Tory lite Manifestos
    what surprises me is how little scrutiny that the Labour Party manifesto has received when it is just a promise box of spending spending spending to bribe the voters telling them what they want to hear and completely ignoring the problem of the deficit and Britains astronomical debts and the bankruptcy that would ensue if it were to be implemented . In the end it will be the poor that would suffer most from their manifesto when unemployment hits 5 million and inflation rates go through the roof - yet the Tories and the media have not even attempted to dissemble labours crank pot manifesto ,they are giving Corbyn a free ride
    And yet it is the Conservative manifesto which is uncosted. You might not like Labour's assumptions or even its arithmetic but at least they are there.
    It might be uncosted but then the Conservatives hardly have a reputation for spraying money around, either in office over the last seven years, or in the nature of the manifesto launch. Labour, by contrast, does have a reputational and credibility issue there.
    Conservatives may not have a reputation for spraying money around but the last seven years' evidence says otherwise. Most government borrowing ever.
    The evidence says nothing of the sort. It's called an inherited structural deficit and that sort of thing is bloody difficult to close without widespread political backing.

    Put it this way: had Brown been re-elected in 2010 (as he nearly was), do you think Labour would have borrowed less?
    None of the political parties has a record of fiscal discipline.

    They all feel they have to promise to spend spend spend if they want to get re-elected.

    Germany meanwhile has a government budget surplus.
    Maybe we could have a referendum on whether we'd like to be associated with German fiscal probity in some way.
  • Options
    DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215

    Ipsos MORI

    Con 45 (-4) Lab 40 (+6)

    My God.
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    CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    edited June 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    From the Lib Dem forum:

    **CPS Announce charges against Craig Mackinlay**
    The Strict Liability Rule means that anything said in relation to the charges, even on social media, that could be seen to prejudice a trial is contempt of court.
    The moderating team in this group will monitor any posts in relation to CPS action. Any posts which we believe could be prejudicial or defamatory, we will remove without notice. We may also close commenting on other posts.
    Please also consider the guidance above when posting in other groups and in public, including retweeting or sharing others' posts.

    That will apply here to.

    That is quite something, for charges to be announced by the CPS at this stage. Even the FBI - in a totally unrelated case of course - didn't go that far during the 2016 US presidential election. They only announced that Clinton was being investigated, and, as we know, kept the theme in the news by then saying she no longer was.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,334
    Fenster said:

    Sir_Geoff said:

    Is anyone else is a marginal surprised by the low level of ground activity? I'm within Dewsbury, albeit one of the Conservative leaning wards (that has been passed between Dewsbury and Wakefield). I've had the mailshot from both Lab and Cons, and one hand delivered leaflet each. No door knocking. Nothing at all from the minor parties. Fewer posters around than previous years. I'm led to believe Lab are concentrating their efforts on their core wards, and that the rise in membership over the last couple of years hasn't translated fully into feet on the ground.

    A similar story from what I see / hear in other nearby constituencies I visit: Wakefield, Halifax, Colne Valley, Calder Valley (although in the latter, the usual Liberal posters are reduced, and the legacy of hallucinogenic drug use in Hebden Bridge was evident in concentrated pockets of Corbymania).

    I have a good friend in Croydon Central, normally a LibDem voter and genuinely undecided, who is utterly besieged by Labour and Tory leaflets, canvassers and phone calls - she says she's never seen anything like it. Unlike some she enjoys it - she feels properly wooed. She'd still like to vote LibDem really, she dislikes the Tories over Brexit but really likes her Tory MP, she feels Labour offers hope and the Tories offer gloom. I have no idea how she'll decide.
    I'm in Ystrad Mynach (Caerphilly constitutency).

    I've received no mail from any party. I've seen nobody campaigning. I have seen a few Labour window stickers.

    It is a safe seat and Wayne David (Lab) will get in unhindered, so there's nothing to see here, move along.
    I'm in Nottingham North - quite a few Labour posters and two Labour leaflets, apparently lots of Tory phone canvassing, a UKIP stand in the town centre, and er that's it.

    In Broxtowe, the seat is awash with Labour posters, but so it was when I was standing and we know what happened then. Only two Tory posters seen but they are huge - about 10 feet wide. A Tory-leaning friend tells me there has only been one Soubry leaflet so far plus the election address (which is all about solid and stable Theresa, no doubt printed some weeks ago). Two Lab and two LD leaflets so far, pushing local relevance (Lab candidate has lived there all his life and is a leading councillor). Soubry has refused to come to any of the hustings events and is conducting a low-profile campaign, aimed at quietly getting the vote out. She's apparently moved out of the constituency since 2015 and gives her address as "in Charnsworth", which amuses people as she used to make a big thing of living in the community.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,942

    Ipsos MORI

    Con 45 (-4) Lab 40 (+6)

    I thought you said Ipsos Mori weren't doing another poll until election day?
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,294
    edited June 2017

    May is toast whatever happens I think.

    But she has maintained 40 plus indeed 45 in this poll. How this ends up who knows
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,745

    May is toast whatever happens I think.

    Not if the polls are wrong.
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    freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107

    May is toast whatever happens I think.

    Even if she gets a huge majority?

    This campaign will be judged in a week or so's time not before the election. I always enjoy reading the fly on the wall accounts after elections.
  • Options
    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Ipsos MORI

    Con 45 (-4) Lab 40 (+6)

    Canada here I come.....
    There will be a large crowd in York tonight singing Jez we can !
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    If I got to play God/Gove with the curriculum:

    More of:
    Basic statistics, probability, creative writing, financial education, genre fiction, philosophy,

    Less:
    Shakespeare, logarithms, geometry, reading plays, plants in biology, traditional sports, Romans and Ancient Egyptians.

    Compulsory reading hour once a week where kids choose what they want to read.

    All essays in exams to have word limits.

    That was a fun rant anyway. Totally subjective!

    I'm very familiar with the A* - G GCSE Maths curriculum (now being phased out), and I can assure you that logarithms are not mentioned, whereas statistics and probability figure quite prominently.
    Ah okay. Things have changed since the 2000s.
    That claim about our MPs not knowing chance of two heads in a row was horrifying to me.
    No, logarithms have not been in part of the GCSE Maths syllabus - either the now-departed A*-G, nor the IGCSE, nor the new 9-1 course. I have a textbook from the first maths GCSE courses in the 1980s and no logs there either. They vanished from the syllabus when the O-level did.

    The new 9-1 somewhat downweights the statistics and probability unfortunately, though the content is still there (just given a lower percentage weighting). Compared to foreign maths curriculums, the British one still does an unusually large amount of stats.

    Incidentally, I think the removal of logs was a bit of a shame. It's a concept that I think is best learned early, like wot when I did it, rather than left to A-level when candidates often struggle with it when it's introduced in an abstract/algebraic way. If you have several years of familiarity with them as a basic numerical tool, then that kind of fluency comes much more easily.

    I use logs and exponentials when doing my long-term financial planning all the time, so I am a bit surprised at wanting it more financial education and less logs!
    I definitely did logarithms at GCSE maths although taught in quite a half hearted way by one teacher who thought a bit of a waste of time (from what I recall very focused on how to manipulate logarithms and change them from one base to another??) and with a fanatical zeal by another who loathed calculators and thought we should all use slide rules.

    By financial education I suppose i more meant stuff like - this is what a credit card is, this is how a mortgage works, those nice people at the bank are actually selling you stuff, basically the things Martin Lewis is teaching the population.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited June 2017

    rkrkrk said:

    If I got to play God/Gove with the curriculum:

    More of:
    Basic statistics, probability, creative writing, financial education, genre fiction, philosophy,

    Less:
    Shakespeare, logarithms, geometry, reading plays, plants in biology, traditional sports, Romans and Ancient Egyptians.

    Compulsory reading hour once a week where kids choose what they want to read.

    All essays in exams to have word limits.

    That was a fun rant anyway. Totally subjective!

    I'm very familiar with the A* - G GCSE Maths curriculum (now being phased out), and I can assure you that logarithms are not mentioned, whereas statistics and probability figure quite prominently.
    How can do you any real maths without knowledge of logarithms?
    Which real maths did you have in mind?
    Let's take for instance one of the most fundamental principles of science and maths, the gaussian distribution. If you don't know what logs and exponentials are and how to do calculus of functions which involve them you are pretty buggered.

    Most real probability based problems involve looking for things like max log likelihood.

    Etc etc etc
    Yes, but the Gaussian distribution and calculus are A Level, not GCSE topics. Logarithms are, of course, taught at A Level, but it's hard to see any practical point of teaching them at GCSE now that we have pocket calculators for multiplying and dividing.
    Earlier the better. I don't see any reason a 14 year old cant understand gaussian distribution and actually with ML this stuff is more important than ever.

    I was taught this kind of stuff at 14 along with basic calculus, probibility etc etc etc
    Calculus at 14? Really? I'm 50 years old and did O-Level Maths at school, and I'm almost certain that calculus was only introduced at A-Level.
    Yes I was taught it between 14-16. Only basic stuff but it included what is differential / integrals of e^x and log x.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,432

    Ipsos MORI

    Con 45 (-4) Lab 40 (+6)

    I thought you said Ipsos Mori weren't doing another poll until election day?
    That's what I was told last week but given the general trends of the polls they were asked to do one this week.
  • Options
    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited June 2017

    kle4 said:

    If 20 MPs had been charged, the CPS's decision might have affected the election directly. I expect that one MP being charged will not do so and instead its effects will be indirect: taking away oxygen from other stories today and preventing the Conservatives re-establishing any kind of momentum.

    They've been terrible at establishing that after the very first week. Truly terrible, as they assumed anyone hearing Corbyn would not like him. Either they will be right in the end and the polls are all nonsense (even the ones with big Tory leads are down on those leads, albeit the share is not hugely down), or the campaign chiefs should get fired, and Crosby's no messiah.
    I am not sure anybody really believed 25 point leads. When it came down to 14-15 that seems more likely, but now we are talking 3-8...Either it is polling disaster mkII or may / crosby / messina have run the worst campaign in history.
    It's a media-driven feedback loop. Poll says Tory lead less than last time -> media story about how poor the Tory campaign is -> General Public pickup a vibe of incompetence -> repeat...

    So if the rumours today that DD is to go to the FCO and Ben Gummer to take over as Brexit minister than we are all seriously doomed. DD has been the most effective speaker on Question Time recently and seems well up on his brief. Theresa May's belief in loyalty above all seems like Corynista's love of ideological purity above all. Madness.
    Strong and unstable.

    The worst combination?
  • Options
    rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    JonWC said:

    rkrkrk said:

    If I got to play God/Gove with the curriculum:

    More of:
    Basic statistics, probability, creative writing, financial education, genre fiction, philosophy,

    Less:
    Shakespeare, logarithms, geometry, reading plays, plants in biology, traditional sports, Romans and Ancient Egyptians.

    Compulsory reading hour once a week where kids choose what they want to read.

    All essays in exams to have word limits.

    That was a fun rant anyway. Totally subjective!

    I'm very familiar with the A* - G GCSE Maths curriculum (now being phased out), and I can assure you that logarithms are not mentioned, whereas statistics and probability figure quite prominently.
    How can do you any real maths without knowledge of logarithms?
    Which real maths did you have in mind?
    Anything involving the exponential function i.e. calculus, probability would be a struggle? Not so much left.. you wouldn't get too advanced with the algebraic structures side of things either.
    I was surprised to find that Calculus has now moved from GCSE to A level. Again (even though I hated it and still don't get it) it is something with real world applications that should be taught at GCSE level.
    Back in the 50’s my Grammar School had two maths streams, one for high flyers, who were mainly, although not exclusively in the Science Fourth & Fifth and one for everyone else. Th high flyers did Applied Maths, which included calculus, the rest did Pure Maths, which didn’t.
    In the mid-80s we (grammar) started on calculus just before our O-levels but only because we'd completed the syllabus. We weren't examined on it.
  • Options
    Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414

    rkrkrk said:

    If I got to play God/Gove with the curriculum:

    More of:
    Basic statistics, probability, creative writing, financial education, genre fiction, philosophy,

    Less:
    Shakespeare, logarithms, geometry, reading plays, plants in biology, traditional sports, Romans and Ancient Egyptians.

    Compulsory reading hour once a week where kids choose what they want to read.

    All essays in exams to have word limits.

    That was a fun rant anyway. Totally subjective!

    I'm very familiar with the A* - G GCSE Maths curriculum (now being phased out), and I can assure you that logarithms are not mentioned, whereas statistics and probability figure quite prominently.
    How can do you any real maths without knowledge of logarithms?
    Which real maths did you have in mind?
    Let's take for instance one of the most fundamental principles of science and maths, the gaussian distribution. If you don't know what logs and exponentials are and how to do calculus of functions which involve them you are pretty buggered.

    Most real probability based problems involve looking for things like max log likelihood.

    Etc etc etc
    Yes, but the Gaussian distribution and calculus are A Level, not GCSE topics. Logarithms are, of course, taught at A Level, but it's hard to see any practical point of teaching them at GCSE now that we have pocket calculators for multiplying and dividing.
    Earlier the better. I don't see any reason a 14 year old cant understand gaussian distribution and actually with ML this stuff is more important than ever.

    I was taught this kind of stuff at 14 along with basic calculus, probibility etc etc etc
    Calculus at 14? Really? I'm 50 years old and did O-Level Maths at school, and I'm almost certain that calculus was only introduced at A-Level.
    I did calculus at O-Level and I'm 52.
  • Options
    PeterMannionPeterMannion Posts: 712
    Chris_A said:

    After Marquee Mark castigated Michael Crick on here a few days ago I hope he's gone in search of some humble pie.

    He hasn't got the decency...
  • Options
    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Ipsos MORI

    Con 45 (-4) Lab 40 (+6)

    Canada here I come.....
    Yes you must be a Justin Trudeau supporter.
  • Options
    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Yorkcity said:

    Ipsos MORI

    Con 45 (-4) Lab 40 (+6)

    Canada here I come.....
    There will be a large crowd in York tonight singing Jez we can !
    Those sort of rallies will play into Tory hands. The triumphant mob is very unBritish.
  • Options
    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,715

    Chris_A said:

    After Marquee Mark castigated Michael Crick on here a few days ago I hope he's gone in search of some humble pie.

    I don't think Crick was alone in thinking that Thanet was a case that needed looking at.

    I will eat humble pie when Crick apologies for the vast waste of police team and money spent investigating the other seats he crusaded on, much of it based on piss-poor journalism. £1.5m was spent on just one if those cases.....perhaps he could do a follow up investigative piece on how much it all cost?
    I wonder if the other seats would have been dropped if there wasn't a General election.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,432
    Corbyn isn't far off what Blair polled in 1997 if that Ipsos MORI poll is correct.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,942

    rkrkrk said:

    If I got to play God/Gove with the curriculum:

    More of:
    Basic statistics, probability, creative writing, financial education, genre fiction, philosophy,

    Less:
    Shakespeare, logarithms, geometry, reading plays, plants in biology, traditional sports, Romans and Ancient Egyptians.

    Compulsory reading hour once a week where kids choose what they want to read.

    All essays in exams to have word limits.

    That was a fun rant anyway. Totally subjective!

    I'm very familiar with the A* - G GCSE Maths curriculum (now being phased out), and I can assure you that logarithms are not mentioned, whereas statistics and probability figure quite prominently.
    How can do you any real maths without knowledge of logarithms?
    Which real maths did you have in mind?
    Let's take for instance one of the most fundamental principles of science and maths, the gaussian distribution. If you don't know what logs and exponentials are and how to do calculus of functions which involve them you are pretty buggered.

    Most real probability based problems involve looking for things like max log likelihood.

    Etc etc etc
    Yes, but the Gaussian distribution and calculus are A Level, not GCSE topics. Logarithms are, of course, taught at A Level, but it's hard to see any practical point of teaching them at GCSE now that we have pocket calculators for multiplying and dividing.
    Earlier the better. I don't see any reason a 14 year old cant understand gaussian distribution and actually with ML this stuff is more important than ever.

    I was taught this kind of stuff at 14 along with basic calculus, probibility etc etc etc
    Calculus at 14? Really? I'm 50 years old and did O-Level Maths at school, and I'm almost certain that calculus was only introduced at A-Level.
    Nope. I am 51 and I went to a comprehensive. We did calculus from the start of the 4th year and it was an important part of the O level course.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,119

    Chris_A said:

    After Marquee Mark castigated Michael Crick on here a few days ago I hope he's gone in search of some humble pie.

    He hasn't got the decency...
    Harsh on Crick...
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    I'm really worried about the future of private schools now. My wife will be devestated if she has to give up her prep school career.
  • Options
    rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    DanSmith said:

    Ipsos MORI

    Con 45 (-4) Lab 40 (+6)

    My God.
    Thatcher Mk1 here we come (majority 42)?

    Ipsos MORI has been around years; does that mean they're more accurate than YouGov?
  • Options
    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Morning PB tories...

    What's good? :)
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,216
    Brom said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Ipsos MORI

    Con 45 (-4) Lab 40 (+6)

    Canada here I come.....
    There will be a large crowd in York tonight singing Jez we can !
    Those sort of rallies will play into Tory hands. The triumphant mob is very unBritish.
    What day is the traditional Rally in Sheffield at which Jezza says 'we're awright...'?
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,432

    DanSmith said:

    Ipsos MORI

    Con 45 (-4) Lab 40 (+6)

    My God.
    Thatcher Mk1 here we come (majority 42)?

    Ipsos MORI has been around years; does that mean they're more accurate than YouGov?
    I'm waiting for their leader ratings, they are the best predictor.
  • Options

    rkrkrk said:

    If I got to play God/Gove with the curriculum:

    More of:
    Basic statistics, probability, creative writing, financial education, genre fiction, philosophy,

    Less:
    Shakespeare, logarithms, geometry, reading plays, plants in biology, traditional sports, Romans and Ancient Egyptians.

    Compulsory reading hour once a week where kids choose what they want to read.

    All essays in exams to have word limits.

    That was a fun rant anyway. Totally subjective!

    I'm very familiar with the A* - G GCSE Maths curriculum (now being phased out), and I can assure you that logarithms are not mentioned, whereas statistics and probability figure quite prominently.
    How can do you any real maths without knowledge of logarithms?
    Which real maths did you have in mind?
    Let's take for instance one of the most fundamental principles of science and maths, the gaussian distribution. If you don't know what logs and exponentials are and how to do calculus of functions which involve them you are pretty buggered.

    Most real probability based problems involve looking for things like max log likelihood.

    Etc etc etc
    Yes, but the Gaussian distribution and calculus are A Level, not GCSE topics. Logarithms are, of course, taught at A Level, but it's hard to see any practical point of teaching them at GCSE now that we have pocket calculators for multiplying and dividing.
    But if you are going to go and do any science subject at A level and beyond then the GCSE maths at least needs to have provided you with the basics to be able to do those subjects. Moving things like Gaussian distribution and calculus to A level means that many students will never do it.
    Another syllabus that I'm very familiar with is that of current A-Level Physics. This has to be taught in such a way that is is comprehensible to those who are not also studying A-Level Maths i.e. without using calculus. This does, admittedly, involve some contortions!
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,060

    DanSmith said:

    Ipsos MORI

    Con 45 (-4) Lab 40 (+6)

    My God.
    Thatcher Mk1 here we come (majority 42)?

    Ipsos MORI has been around years; does that mean they're more accurate than YouGov?
    It means that we can't just put the polls down to infiltration of YouGov's panel.
  • Options
    BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Morning PB tories...

    What's good? :)

    The Tory vote share is good. Though I'd guess they would say not much else!
  • Options
    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486

    Ipsos MORI

    Con 45 (-4) Lab 40 (+6)

    What fresh hell is this? On a phone poll as well.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,745

    Corbyn isn't far off what Blair polled in 1997 if that Ipsos MORI poll is correct.

    So much for people not liking Corbyn or his offer. A lot of Labour MPs will be preparing to be Jeremy's little minions now and grovelling that they doubted him.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,984

    rkrkrk said:

    If I got to play God/Gove with the curriculum:

    More of:
    Basic statistics, probability, creative writing, financial education, genre fiction, philosophy,

    Less:
    Shakespeare, logarithms, geometry, reading plays, plants in biology, traditional sports, Romans and Ancient Egyptians.

    Compulsory reading hour once a week where kids choose what they want to read.

    All essays in exams to have word limits.

    That was a fun rant anyway. Totally subjective!

    I'm very familiar with the A* - G GCSE Maths curriculum (now being phased out), and I can assure you that logarithms are not mentioned, whereas statistics and probability figure quite prominently.
    How can do you any real maths without knowledge of logarithms?
    Which real maths did you have in mind?
    Let's take for instance one of the most fundamental principles of science and maths, the gaussian distribution. If you don't know what logs and exponentials are and how to do calculus of functions which involve them you are pretty buggered.

    Most real probability based problems involve looking for things like max log likelihood.

    Etc etc etc
    Yes, but the Gaussian distribution and calculus are A Level, not GCSE topics. Logarithms are, of course, taught at A Level, but it's hard to see any practical point of teaching them at GCSE now that we have pocket calculators for multiplying and dividing.
    Earlier the better. I don't see any reason a 14 year old cant understand gaussian distribution and actually with ML this stuff is more important than ever.

    I was taught this kind of stuff at 14 along with basic calculus, probibility etc etc etc
    Calculus at 14? Really? I'm 50 years old and did O-Level Maths at school, and I'm almost certain that calculus was only introduced at A-Level.
    I did calculus at O-Level and I'm 52.
    Exam boards had more independence then. We took London exams, although the ‘rumour’ was that Oxford was easier. For biological subjects anyway.
  • Options
    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    It's a straight fight. Sick of èurope versus sick of austerity and establishment.
This discussion has been closed.