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  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,231

    I am personally very sceptical of the yougov panel...Watch Dave Gorman special on it...

    Linky?
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited June 2017
    jonny83 said:

    Do we get data before the election about voter registrations? Just curious about this youth vote.

    Nothing official yet. One journalist has got hold of some figures though.

    http://www.politics.co.uk/news/2017/06/02/exclusive-newly-registered-voters-focused-on-student-seats

    Based on those numbers it doesn't look like there's going to be a large change in registration in most constituencies. Especially not in places where it matters.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    How much of the Student loan book relates to tuition fees? Presumably a fairly sizeable chunk relates to living costs as well?
  • OUTOUT Posts: 569
    Scott_P said:

    @ScottyNational: Indy March : Anger as those opposing Indyref arrange a provocative counter demo by staying at home, shopping and getting on with life

    Really? The cuddly Orangemen are showing off their brand of unionism with big parades today.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741



    How long has Fatcha!!!! been dead? How long since Prime Minister? Yesterday, to those on the Left....

    Unnecessarily partisan - the Conservatives were still going on about the "Winter of Discontent" in the mid-90s as an inevitable consequence of Labour getting back into power.

    The remarkable aspect of this nonsense was that the Conservatives had spent most of their time in office emasculating the trade union movement.

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    NeilVW said:

    ab195 said:

    nunu said:
    From a betting perspective, with the exception of yougov, haven't these companies produced better results for the Tories? If we assume Labour may have peaked (DYOR) then I presume there might be money to be made on a shift in the market tonight. Right now, 8% leads across the board would almost look like "shoring up".
    Polls published about a week ago by these companies:

    ComRes (GB): 24-26 May - Con lead of 12
    ICM (GB): 24-26 May - Con lead of 14 (Sun on Sunday)
    Opinium (GB): 23-24 May - Con lead of 10
    ORB (GB): 24-25 May - Con lead of 6
    Survation (GB): 26-27 May - Con lead of 6
    YouGov (GB): 25-26 May - Con lead of 7

    And the Scottish poll:
    Survation (Scotland): 18-21 Apr - SNP 43, Con 28, Lab 18, LD 9
    There is a Scottish poll: 43-25-25
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    jonny83 said:

    Do we get data before the election about voter registrations? Just curious about this youth vote.

    Most new registrations are presumably young people for the simple reason that a large number have only just become eligible to vote or register. Although perhaps fewer than usual given the proximity to the referendum/last election.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Liar liar the The T May song is number 4 in the charts number ,2 in the I tune down loads.Some going to say it is not been played on radio stations.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    alex. said:

    How much of the Student loan book relates to tuition fees? Presumably a fairly sizeable chunk relates to living costs as well?

    Yes -- and one irony is that students live better than they used to in the days of student grants (and this in turn means there are now large companies specialising in student accommodation).
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 703
    surbiton said:

    NeilVW said:

    ab195 said:

    nunu said:
    From a betting perspective, with the exception of yougov, haven't these companies produced better results for the Tories? If we assume Labour may have peaked (DYOR) then I presume there might be money to be made on a shift in the market tonight. Right now, 8% leads across the board would almost look like "shoring up".
    Polls published about a week ago by these companies:

    ComRes (GB): 24-26 May - Con lead of 12
    ICM (GB): 24-26 May - Con lead of 14 (Sun on Sunday)
    Opinium (GB): 23-24 May - Con lead of 10
    ORB (GB): 24-25 May - Con lead of 6
    Survation (GB): 26-27 May - Con lead of 6
    YouGov (GB): 25-26 May - Con lead of 7

    And the Scottish poll:
    Survation (Scotland): 18-21 Apr - SNP 43, Con 28, Lab 18, LD 9
    There is a Scottish poll: 43-25-25
    Indeed, but not by Survation. I'm looking at like-for-like comparisons.
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852

    marke09 said:

    These young people need reminding who introduced tuition fees in the first place

    My age group aren't really interested in history very much, when it comes to elections. That's why they think what Corbyn is offering is 'new', and a 'different kind of politics.' They also have a messiannic level of trust in Corbyn, and are shocked as to why anyone else wouldn't. As if it's healthy to make gods of politicians.
    "You don't know where you're going until you know where you've been"
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    .

    calum said:

    Simple SNP messaging for the last week

    https://twitter.com/theSNP/status/870546938793537536

    Child poverty ? Seriously ? A statistical approximation to zero in the UK.
    Moron
    I think I am slightly more qualified to talk on this subject than you are, but flame away if it makes you happy.
    Explain then , how there are no poor people in UK. Hopefully your are not going to trot out that people in Africa are really poor, try to contain yourself to the UK.
    Of course there are poor people living in the UK and probably rather more if they live in a country ran by the SNP . That does not mean they are living in poverty . If you want to see what living in poverty really means you have to go to Asian and South American and African cities .
    tax planning and now this....there's hope for Lib Dems yet....
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    stodge said:



    How long has Fatcha!!!! been dead? How long since Prime Minister? Yesterday, to those on the Left....

    Unnecessarily partisan - the Conservatives were still going on about the "Winter of Discontent" in the mid-90s as an inevitable consequence of Labour getting back into power.

    The remarkable aspect of this nonsense was that the Conservatives had spent most of their time in office emasculating the trade union movement.

    Well if you believe Corbyn all that is going to be reversed practically at the stroke of a pen.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    TMA1 said:

    nunu said:

    Lib dems are having a truly crap election:

    twitter.com/britainelects/status/870972949674774529

    It's the free tuition fees bribe vs lib dems jacked them up what done it.
    Truly terrible for Greens. Their core constituency: kids who will live to see wide scale climate change damage.
    There has been no increase in world atmospheric temeratures in nearly 20 years. Several different sateklite based observations show this.
    Our climate is driven by that big yellow thing in the sky. There is nothing you can do about that.
    Polution is different but that is not climate.
    I see you know more than a vast majority of scientists in the world. I bow to your greatness...
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Yorkcity said:

    Liar liar the The T May song is number 4 in the charts number ,2 in the I tune down loads.Some going to say it is not been played on radio stations.

    People still listen to music via the radio?

    The song has been all over my social media feeds. No one under the age of 35 (surely?) is seriously getting their music mainly from radio, so it not being played on their doesn't matter. As long as it's avaliable on Apple Music or Spotify, that's all that matters.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    edited June 2017
    stodge said:



    How long has Fatcha!!!! been dead? How long since Prime Minister? Yesterday, to those on the Left....

    Unnecessarily partisan - the Conservatives were still going on about the "Winter of Discontent" in the mid-90s as an inevitable consequence of Labour getting back into power.

    The remarkable aspect of this nonsense was that the Conservatives had spent most of their time in office emasculating the trade union movement.

    I'm not denying the validity of your point. But mine stands too.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    alex. said:

    How much of the Student loan book relates to tuition fees? Presumably a fairly sizeable chunk relates to living costs as well?

    I have ≈ £9,000 of tuition fee debt and ≈ £15,000 of maintenance loan debt. That's fairly typical for those who were on Plan 1.
  • ab195ab195 Posts: 477
    NeilVW said:

    ab195 said:

    nunu said:
    From a betting perspective, with the exception of yougov, haven't these companies produced better results for the Tories? If we assume Labour may have peaked (DYOR) then I presume there might be money to be made on a shift in the market tonight. Right now, 8% leads across the board would almost look like "shoring up".
    Polls published about a week ago by these companies:

    ComRes (GB): 24-26 May - Con lead of 12
    ICM (GB): 24-26 May - Con lead of 14 (Sun on Sunday)
    Opinium (GB): 23-24 May - Con lead of 10
    ORB (GB): 24-25 May - Con lead of 6
    Survation (GB): 26-27 May - Con lead of 6
    YouGov (GB): 25-26 May - Con lead of 7

    And the Scottish poll:
    Survation (Scotland): 18-21 Apr - SNP 43, Con 28, Lab 18, LD 9
    Bit more balanced than I thought - never trust memory! Hmmm. The cynic in me says we will now see herding and an average going in to polling day of 8%. The betting markets will price in 9 or 10% and everything can be justified as "late swing". If the exit poll shows something close to a majority of 50, then where am I going to make my successful 10/1 bet on the night of the election?! It's not fair. I guess the only possible scenario is to spot a hung parliament early, unlikely though it is.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,585
    Lots and lots of PB Tories getting over excited about Corbyn's nuclear response answer. I would be surprised if it does anything other than to reinforce what a ****wit Corbyn is to those who already knew he was a ****wit! If I were a Conservative Party supporter I would have been more alarmed by Mrs May's 'magic money tree' comment... to a nurse!

    Anyway, still a Conservative landslide in the offing!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Rhubarb said:

    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:
    They're over sampling the politically engaged!!!
    ..ugh...is this for real?
    All the e-mail YouGov links I got contained a random-looking string that's probably some kind of unique user/campaign ID; he might get to submit twice but, if they're tracking this stuff properly, then the extra submissions should be filtered out.
    Not if he registered with multiple emails?
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Re tution fees, what about state paying for the fees of the most poorest students? That way, you can avoid subsiding middle class kids to go to uni from state taxation.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072

    Re tution fees, what about state paying for the fees of the most poorest students? That way, you can avoid subsiding middle class kids to go to uni from state taxation.

    The fees or living costs? Living costs are more important.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,748
    edited June 2017
    OUT said:

    Scott_P said:

    @ScottyNational: Indy March : Anger as those opposing Indyref arrange a provocative counter demo by staying at home, shopping and getting on with life

    Really? The cuddly Orangemen are showing off their brand of unionism with big parades today.
    For yer average Loyalist, that very much counts as getting on with life: Bucky consumed, Lambeg larruped, Caflicks intimidated, 'culture' defended..
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Ms. Apocalypse, both those things (lack of historical interest and cultish pro-Corbynism) are disturbing.

    Mr. Max, the weakness of the Conservatives on the economy is as stupid as it is baffling. Osborne's being a self-indulgent fool with his vendetta, but had he been involved in the campaign then the economic ground wouldn't've been ceded.
  • RhubarbRhubarb Posts: 359
    Charles said:

    Rhubarb said:

    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:
    They're over sampling the politically engaged!!!
    ..ugh...is this for real?
    All the e-mail YouGov links I got contained a random-looking string that's probably some kind of unique user/campaign ID; he might get to submit twice but, if they're tracking this stuff properly, then the extra submissions should be filtered out.
    Not if he registered with multiple emails?
    Certainly - but I don't think thats what the original tweet was implying.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited June 2017

    I am still very confused by the lack of attacks from the Tories. Either messina is telling them you are getting 50-100 majority come what may (and no more) and getting nuclear on corbyn could cause Gordon type sympthy vote OR corbgasm is real and they haven't got a clue how to tackle it with focus group / polling telling them attack lines aren't working.

    Everything in that lack of reaction says they think everything is going swimmingly, no need to change course at all. Or they have something deadly from Corbyn's past to deploy which will dominate the media coverage for the last 3/4 days.

    Of course, Clinton was a rather similar situation ......
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263


    ab195 said:



    We almost need a Corbynite to have a go somewhere they can't do much harm (city mayor?) to wake people up and show why the extremes are bad.

    Except anywhere they can't do too much harm by definition won't show why the extremes are bad. Besides it's be someone else's fault - the mayor isn't getting enough resources from central government etc
    Well, we've had Ken Livingstone, who has become incresasingly erratic, to put it mildly, but was seen as doing quite a good job when he was Mayor.
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    just had some bumff off Mark Williams and the Lib Dems in Ceredigion - its a two horse race bewtenn them and Plaid the others cant win - tyr telling YouGov and Lord Ashcroft that as both have Plaid in 4th
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Charles said:

    Rhubarb said:

    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:
    They're over sampling the politically engaged!!!
    ..ugh...is this for real?
    All the e-mail YouGov links I got contained a random-looking string that's probably some kind of unique user/campaign ID; he might get to submit twice but, if they're tracking this stuff properly, then the extra submissions should be filtered out.
    Not if he registered with multiple emails?
    And if he remembered to vary his answers so the Yougov computer did not spot that Mr X and Ms Y always gave the same responses. Even if this chap is clever enough to get away with it, provided Yovgov can weed out all the others, the impact will be marginal. A far greater problem is an unrepresentative panel: pb regulars and the terminally skint for whom 50p is ample reward for an hour's work rating soap powder.
  • ab195ab195 Posts: 477
    edited June 2017

    Re tution fees, what about state paying for the fees of the most poorest students? That way, you can avoid subsiding middle class kids to go to uni from state taxation.

    The fees or living costs? Living costs are more important.
    The underlying logic is that it shouldn't matter what your family earns when you go to uni, as you won't have to pay anything until you're earning over a certain amount yourself. You basically borrow against your own future income. If we accept that logic, then surely the best thing to do is raise the income level that triggers repayments to whatever we think is "reasonable" or "better off than if you hadn't gone to uni"? Slightly overthinking it, you could then have a sliding scale of interest rates to make repayments more progressive - "your degree made you a millionaire so you should pay more for it".
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    New YouGov model result

    Conservative 42% 308 (-5)
    Labour 38% 261 (+4)
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Yorkcity said:

    Liar liar the The T May song is number 4 in the charts number ,2 in the I tune down loads.Some going to say it is not been played on radio stations.

    People still listen to music via the radio?

    The song has been all over my social media feeds. No one under the age of 35 (surely?) is seriously getting their music mainly from radio, so it not being played on their doesn't matter. As long as it's avaliable on Apple Music or Spotify, that's all that matters.
    Yes my apologies yes I still listen to radio in the house and car.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Charles said:

    Rhubarb said:

    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:
    They're over sampling the politically engaged!!!
    ..ugh...is this for real?
    All the e-mail YouGov links I got contained a random-looking string that's probably some kind of unique user/campaign ID; he might get to submit twice but, if they're tracking this stuff properly, then the extra submissions should be filtered out.
    Not if he registered with multiple emails?
    And if he remembered to vary his answers so the Yougov computer did not spot that Mr X and Ms Y always gave the same responses. Even if this chap is clever enough to get away with it, provided Yovgov can weed out all the others, the impact will be marginal. A far greater problem is an unrepresentative panel: pb regulars and the terminally skint for whom 50p is ample reward for an hour's work rating soap powder.
    Why should a PB regular spend an hour ? That is why nobody does.
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852

    Re tution fees, what about state paying for the fees of the most poorest students? That way, you can avoid subsiding middle class kids to go to uni from state taxation.

    The point of student loans was supposed to be that the student got the same amount of money to go to university irrespective of their parents means, and which would be repaid based on their own ability to repay post graduation. Why should a bright middle class kid who gets a job in the City have to pay of a 40k loan, and a working class peer get it paid for by the state ?

    At the moment the amount of maintenance loan you get is based on your parents income, which is bizarre since its not your parents that are going to be repaying the loan. Why should a poor kid get lent more money that a rich kid when they are going to study the same course and get the same job with the same pay at the end ?
  • TypoTypo Posts: 195
    Yorkcity said:

    Liar liar the The T May song is number 4 in the charts number ,2 in the I tune down loads.Some going to say it is not been played on radio stations.

    Not in the UK Top 50 on Spotify.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Charles said:

    Rhubarb said:

    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:
    They're over sampling the politically engaged!!!
    ..ugh...is this for real?
    All the e-mail YouGov links I got contained a random-looking string that's probably some kind of unique user/campaign ID; he might get to submit twice but, if they're tracking this stuff properly, then the extra submissions should be filtered out.
    Not if he registered with multiple emails?
    And if he remembered to vary his answers so the Yougov computer did not spot that Mr X and Ms Y always gave the same responses. Even if this chap is clever enough to get away with it, provided Yovgov can weed out all the others, the impact will be marginal. A far greater problem is an unrepresentative panel: pb regulars and the terminally skint for whom 50p is ample reward for an hour's work rating soap powder.
    Why only Yougov. Everyone uses panels.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited June 2017

    Re tution fees, what about state paying for the fees of the most poorest students? That way, you can avoid subsiding middle class kids to go to uni from state taxation.

    This is an interesting one, in that I believe there is evidence that lower-class students are more put off by debt than middle and upper-class, so more targeting of support at poorer students seems logical.

    But what we really mean in this context is "how rich their parents are". And by the time it comes to repay, the set of "students whose parents are poor" and "graduates who are poor" is not the same. Nor are "students whose parents are rich" and "graduates who are rich".

    It is surely more equitable for people to stump up based on whether they are rich, rather than their parents are rich - particularly since it is the graduate, rather than their parents, who have actually been to university and extracted the benefits (or otherwise*) of it.

    That would suggest either a graduate tax or income-contingent debt repayment (not a big difference between the two, if you put a cap on the total payable under a graduate tax) and perhaps, as @Gallowgate suggests, student from poorer backgrounds being supported better with living costs but still having to repay fees if they end up in highly-paid careers.

    That seems fair, but also clashes with the first point I raised about discouraging working-class participation. Not sure how this circle is to be squared. One way would be better financial education in schools (a lot of sixth formers don't understand how income-contingent repayment works or why student debt is different to other types of loan). Clearly a good idea but I doubt it would be sufficient to reduce the gap between middle and working class students going to uni. Another would be to approach "fairness" differently and pay university fees from general taxation instead. But this has various disadvantages (likely to result in cash-starved universities if governments squeeze funding, and potentially a wave of prestigious universities become high-fee private institutions that actually widens the class gap) and does mean that those who benefit the most from what is a very personal investment don't necessarily pay the most back (particularly bearing in mind how internationally mobile the more high-flying
    graduate career paths are).

    * Judging from loan repayment statistics, suspect the NPV of some less practical degrees at lower-quality universities is actually negative, once the opportunity cost of what you could have been doing instead for 3 years is taken into account. Fees serve a useful purpose in discouraging overconsumption of less useful courses and encouraging applicants to think a bit more about what they're going to get out of a degree.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741
    alex. said:



    Well if you believe Corbyn all that is going to be reversed practically at the stroke of a pen.

    Even if he did or could, would there be a headlong rush of workers to join trades unions ? I doubt it - those who are already members often join less for the politics than for the expertise available in the event of a dispute with the employer and there's a perfectly acceptable role for unions in that area.

    The world of work and working has changed out of all recognition from the 60s and 70s.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2017

    The Tories clearly felt they had a huge lead. May would not have called the election otherwise. The local election results pretty much confirmed it existed. After the Tories win very comfortably next week the puzzle will be why some polls detected such a strong Labour surge.

    This is likely to be what happens in my opinion.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Speaking of history, a reminder of my historical seat results for Labour list. Amusing to think how people insisted I added larger negatives, and even wanted more than the three I added.

    -100 Adrianople [Malmesbury]
    -90 Cap Bon [Malmesbury’s suggestion]
    -80 Allia [another_richard’s suggestion]

    -70 Cannae
    -60 Arausio
    -50 Teutoberg Forest
    -40 Carrhae
    -30 Lake Trasimene

    If it's not too bad:
    -20 Asculum
    -10 Heraclea

    And, if Labour actually increase their seat numbers:
    +10 Zela
    +20 Tigranocerta
    +30 Zama

    Time for me to be of. Play nicely.
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Barnesian said:

    New YouGov model result

    Conservative 42% 308 (-5)
    Labour 38% 261 (+4)

    same voting shares as yesterday but change in the seats
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    marke09 said:

    Barnesian said:

    New YouGov model result

    Conservative 42% 308 (-5)
    Labour 38% 261 (+4)

    same voting shares as yesterday but change in the seats
    Why would the seats change when the vote share stays the same?
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852

    Charles said:

    Rhubarb said:

    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:
    They're over sampling the politically engaged!!!
    ..ugh...is this for real?
    All the e-mail YouGov links I got contained a random-looking string that's probably some kind of unique user/campaign ID; he might get to submit twice but, if they're tracking this stuff properly, then the extra submissions should be filtered out.
    Not if he registered with multiple emails?
    And if he remembered to vary his answers so the Yougov computer did not spot that Mr X and Ms Y always gave the same responses. Even if this chap is clever enough to get away with it, provided Yovgov can weed out all the others, the impact will be marginal. A far greater problem is an unrepresentative panel: pb regulars and the terminally skint for whom 50p is ample reward for an hour's work rating soap powder.
    Thats probably true.

    There is a slight concern having watched the idiots on 4chan gaming the petitions website over the BrExit revote referendum petition with a bot, of the same happening with online polls. Its relatively straightforward to automatically register thousands of disposable email addresses and survey accounts to match, and then have a bot check those for survey emails and complete the form automatically.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,225
    marke09 said:

    Barnesian said:

    New YouGov model result

    Conservative 42% 308 (-5)
    Labour 38% 261 (+4)

    same voting shares as yesterday but change in the seats
    They asked Diane to check?
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,300
    AndyJS said:

    marke09 said:

    Barnesian said:

    New YouGov model result

    Conservative 42% 308 (-5)
    Labour 38% 261 (+4)

    same voting shares as yesterday but change in the seats
    Why would the seats change when the vote share stays the same?
    Because the model applies changes in behaviour to certain groups/regions, so 2 per cent extra northern Labour car owners and 2 per cent fewer southern Tory yacht owners don't cancel each other out.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    AndyJS said:

    The Tories clearly felt they had a huge lead. May would not have called the election otherwise. The local election results pretty much confirmed it existed. After the Tories win very comfortably next week the puzzle will be why some polls detected such a strong Labour surge.

    This is likely to be what happens in my opinion.
    There is still, however, the issue that the "projected national shares" from the local elections were not reflective of the polls. Of course they were rubbished, but maybe they were actually closer to the truth than people realised.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,231

    marke09 said:

    These young people need reminding who introduced tuition fees in the first place

    My age group aren't really interested in history very much, when it comes to elections. That's why they think what Corbyn is offering is 'new', and a 'different kind of politics.' They also have a messiannic level of trust in Corbyn, and are shocked as to why anyone else wouldn't. As if it's healthy to make gods of politicians.
    "You don't know where you're going until you know where you've been"
    But the Talking Heads disagree with you... :)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    marke09 said:

    Barnesian said:

    New YouGov model result

    Conservative 42% 308 (-5)
    Labour 38% 261 (+4)

    same voting shares as yesterday but change in the seats
    Why would the seats change when the vote share stays the same?
    Because the model applies changes in behaviour to certain groups/regions, so 2 per cent extra northern Labour car owners and 2 per cent fewer southern Tory yacht owners don't cancel each other out.
    I guessed that, but what I meant was whether they've actually received new information which leaves the overall shares the same or whether they were tweaking the model using the same data as before.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Another would be to approach "fairness" differently and pay university fees from general taxation instead. But this has various disadvantages (likely to result in cash-starved universities if governments squeeze funding, and potentially a wave of prestigious universities become high-fee private institutions that actually widens the class gap) and does mean that those who benefit the most from what is a very personal investment don't necessarily pay the most back (particularly bearing in mind how internationally mobile the more high-flying graduate career paths are).

    You cover disadvantages but one major advantage of this -- centrally-paid tuition fees -- is that the government could do what Mrs Thatcher did, which is offer free postgrad courses to the unemployed. That depends on courses being free or almost free because otherwise there is an obvious perverse incentive for people to stay on the dole to save thousands in tuition fees.
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    AndyJS said:

    marke09 said:

    Barnesian said:

    New YouGov model result

    Conservative 42% 308 (-5)
    Labour 38% 261 (+4)

    same voting shares as yesterday but change in the seats
    Why would the seats change when the vote share stays the same?
    Isnt their model probablistic ? Presumeably today the computational dice rolled slightly differently in the consituencies but produced the same net result.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    surbiton said:

    Charles said:

    Rhubarb said:

    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:
    They're over sampling the politically engaged!!!
    ..ugh...is this for real?
    All the e-mail YouGov links I got contained a random-looking string that's probably some kind of unique user/campaign ID; he might get to submit twice but, if they're tracking this stuff properly, then the extra submissions should be filtered out.
    Not if he registered with multiple emails?
    And if he remembered to vary his answers so the Yougov computer did not spot that Mr X and Ms Y always gave the same responses. Even if this chap is clever enough to get away with it, provided Yovgov can weed out all the others, the impact will be marginal. A far greater problem is an unrepresentative panel: pb regulars and the terminally skint for whom 50p is ample reward for an hour's work rating soap powder.
    Why only Yougov. Everyone uses panels.
    Maybe they are less rigorous than their competitors? Therefore easier to game. Maybe their employees get bonuses for the number of new panel members they recruit? Just a guess, but... Maybe somebody who knows about the inside workings could talk to us?
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613

    Looking at the constituency betting,there are currently still 40 seats where the Tories are favourite to take a Labour seat in England and Wales,4 Tory gains from the LDs and 1 from ukip, so this method produces a Tory total of 375-without taking into account Scotland or NI-and an overall Tory majority of 120.
    Either the polls are wrong or else there is still value in backing Labour in these seats where the Tories are favourite.If the bookies' prices are right,it is pretty much still landslide territory.

    I think there's a flaw in this logic, but can't remember enough from A-level stats to explain properly. If there were say 40 seats where the Tories had a 60% chance of winning (and hence were favourites) you wouldn't expect them to win all of them. I get that they aren't completely independent events (which is why the bookies won't let you do seat betting as an accumulator), but they aren't 100% correlated either.

    Can someone cleverer than me explain properly how we should think about seats where there is a favourite vs spreads/majority betting ?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,414
    AndyJS said:

    marke09 said:

    Barnesian said:

    New YouGov model result

    Conservative 42% 308 (-5)
    Labour 38% 261 (+4)

    same voting shares as yesterday but change in the seats
    Why would the seats change when the vote share stays the same?
    It's their kooky demographic model, presumably. E.g, if they get a few more working class people in their 20s from the North say they're voting Labour, then that will affect northern marginals with a greater proportion of those in that demographic. At least, that's how I understand it.

    Of course, the sampling sizes that will lead to those changes are going to be minuscule. Someone earlier mentioned Dave Gorman talking about the Yougov panel, if this is a similar sort of exercise a large pinch of salt does have to be taken as some of the results it threw up were utterly bizarre.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    marke09 said:

    Barnesian said:

    New YouGov model result

    Conservative 42% 308 (-5)
    Labour 38% 261 (+4)

    same voting shares as yesterday but change in the seats
    Vote shares are rounded to nearest %.
    A small change (<0.5%) would change the seats but not the rounded share.
    It suggests a small change in vote share in favour of Labour but less than 0.5%.
  • woody662woody662 Posts: 255
    Having been out in the field for a few weeks now, I detect more Labour posters than previously but it's very difficult to find people other than this core who will vote for Corbyn. A lot less love for May than at the start. Lots of 'I'll vote for you but'

    I think we're looking at a swing to the Tories of 5-8% from last time,
  • ConcanvasserConcanvasser Posts: 165
    AndyJS said:

    The Tories clearly felt they had a huge lead. May would not have called the election otherwise. The local election results pretty much confirmed it existed. After the Tories win very comfortably next week the puzzle will be why some polls detected such a strong Labour surge.

    This is likely to be what happens in my opinion.
    Just back from a morning in Luton South. The demographic their is stacked against the Blues but they are convinced it is close and Labour appears worried.

    Stevenage expect to increase their majority with no worries.

    Luton S and Stevenage are where we should pick up signs of a Labour surge. They are not there.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    marke09 said:

    Barnesian said:

    New YouGov model result

    Conservative 42% 308 (-5)
    Labour 38% 261 (+4)

    same voting shares as yesterday but change in the seats
    Why would the seats change when the vote share stays the same?
    Isnt their model probablistic ? Presumeably today the computational dice rolled slightly differently in the consituencies but produced the same net result.
    Thanks, that must be it.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    marke09 said:

    just had some bumff off Mark Williams and the Lib Dems in Ceredigion - its a two horse race bewtenn them and Plaid the others cant win - tyr telling YouGov and Lord Ashcroft that as both have Plaid in 4th

    But what does Mike Smithson of political betting.com have to say on the matter? What is in his leaflets?
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 703
    marke09 said:

    just had some bumff off Mark Williams and the Lib Dems in Ceredigion - its a two horse race bewtenn them and Plaid the others cant win - tyr telling YouGov and Lord Ashcroft that as both have Plaid in 4th

    After today's update YouGov's model has LD 34, PC 22, LAB 20, CON 18 in Ceredigion.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958

    AndyJS said:

    The Tories clearly felt they had a huge lead. May would not have called the election otherwise. The local election results pretty much confirmed it existed. After the Tories win very comfortably next week the puzzle will be why some polls detected such a strong Labour surge.

    This is likely to be what happens in my opinion.
    Just back from a morning in Luton South. The demographic their is stacked against the Blues but they are convinced it is close and Labour appears worried.

    Stevenage expect to increase their majority with no worries.

    Luton S and Stevenage are where we should pick up signs of a Labour surge. They are not there.
    This is the stuff we need to hear about - last time around, informed anecdote was way better than the polling.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651


    People still listen to music via the radio?

    There seem to be a lot of people working in radio stations, and very few of them are speech-based, so I think I can stake an answer at that one! Having said that, the speech stations seem to be doing well compared to the music stations.

    There's obviously a trend in younger people moving away from radio, but e.g. Radio 1 is youth-oriented and still gets about 10 million listeners. The RAJAR figures are a useful guide (here's an interesting report from end of 2016, the Q1 figures for 2017 were released recently too).

    See also this infosheet which suggests radio is not going away.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2017
    Interesting point: FIsher, Baxter and Hanretty all have the Labour share going up and seats going down. Would be the second election in a row where that happens for the reds.

    http://electionforecast.co.uk/
    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
    https://electionsetc.com/2017/06/02/combined-forecast-for-ge2017-third-update/
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545

    The Tories clearly felt they had a huge lead. May would not have called the election otherwise. The local election results pretty much confirmed it existed. After the Tories win very comfortably next week the puzzle will be why some polls detected such a strong Labour surge.

    The Labour surge is real, probably, but not enough to prevent an increase in the Conservative majority. The problem for Mrs May, unless she gets a landslide, is that the campaign has shone a harsh light on her fitness to lead, when she was hoping for a coronation. The complete lack of any substance in her manifesto means she will neither be able to say "I decide things around here", nor "The people voted for it. It was in the manifesto."
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    woody662 said:

    Having been out in the field for a few weeks now, I detect more Labour posters than previously but it's very difficult to find people other than this core who will vote for Corbyn. A lot less love for May than at the start. Lots of 'I'll vote for you but'

    I think we're looking at a swing to the Tories of 5-8% from last time,

    A SWING of 5-8% would be a bloodbath for Labour. Or a polling difference from last time?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    marke09 said:

    just had some bumff off Mark Williams and the Lib Dems in Ceredigion - its a two horse race bewtenn them and Plaid the others cant win - tyr telling YouGov and Lord Ashcroft that as both have Plaid in 4th

    How humdrum. I got a leaflet through my door this morning for the Animal Welfare Party. I'm not even in the constituency for it.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2017

    Yorkcity said:

    Liar liar the The T May song is number 4 in the charts number ,2 in the I tune down loads.Some going to say it is not been played on radio stations.

    People still listen to music via the radio?

    The song has been all over my social media feeds. No one under the age of 35 (surely?) is seriously getting their music mainly from radio, so it not being played on their doesn't matter. As long as it's avaliable on Apple Music or Spotify, that's all that matters.
    Why are you so intolerant towards anyone who chooses to do things the old-fashioned way? I still listen to the radio, watch VHS videos and DVDs, play computer games on a ZX Spectrum, and do word processing on a Sinclair QL.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,225
    woody662 said:

    Having been out in the field for a few weeks now, I detect more Labour posters than previously but it's very difficult to find people other than this core who will vote for Corbyn. A lot less love for May than at the start. Lots of 'I'll vote for you but'

    I think we're looking at a swing to the Tories of 5-8% from last time,

    Hi Woody

    You would have found more reasons to be cheerful if you had seen the plentiful banners for Simon Hart and Stephen Crabb that festooned the A40 on my drive through Pembrokeshire yesterday. Some cheeky buggers had daubed 'for the few' on a couple of them but basically the opposition was nowhere to be seen.

    Two easy holds if the banner war is anything to go on.

    How u these days? Still robbing the local bookies?
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    NeilVW said:

    marke09 said:

    just had some bumff off Mark Williams and the Lib Dems in Ceredigion - its a two horse race bewtenn them and Plaid the others cant win - tyr telling YouGov and Lord Ashcroft that as both have Plaid in 4th

    After today's update YouGov's model has LD 34, PC 22, LAB 20, CON 18 in Ceredigion.

    posted before i saw the update but still close for second and last week I was calling it for Plaid not so sure now
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,414
    FF43 said:

    The Tories clearly felt they had a huge lead. May would not have called the election otherwise. The local election results pretty much confirmed it existed. After the Tories win very comfortably next week the puzzle will be why some polls detected such a strong Labour surge.

    The Labour surge is real, probably, but not enough to prevent an increase in the Conservative majority. The problem for Mrs May, unless she gets a landslide, is that the campaign has shone a harsh light on her fitness to lead, when she was hoping for a coronation. The complete lack of any substance in her manifesto means she will neither be able to say "I decide things around here", nor "The people voted for it. It was in the manifesto."
    Yes, I suspect whatever the result we will see a PM who, if she stays in office, will go either of her own accord or via a swift defenestration in 2019-2020, once Brexit is settled. No way is she going to go through all this again in 2022.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    The Tories clearly felt they had a huge lead. May would not have called the election otherwise. The local election results pretty much confirmed it existed. After the Tories win very comfortably next week the puzzle will be why some polls detected such a strong Labour surge.

    This is likely to be what happens in my opinion.
    Just back from a morning in Luton South. The demographic their is stacked against the Blues but they are convinced it is close and Labour appears worried.

    Stevenage expect to increase their majority with no worries.

    Luton S and Stevenage are where we should pick up signs of a Labour surge. They are not there.
    Labour have nothing to worry about in Luton South. The Tories could only win it by 799 votes in 1992 when the demographics were hugely more favourable to them.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Conservative canvassers on here are consistently saying that their vote is up. Labour canvassers on here are consistently saying their vote is up. Of course, one or both groups might be lying or allowing hope to triumph over actuality, but the simplest explanation is that both are right, which ties in with the polls.
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    edited June 2017
    FF43 said:

    The Tories clearly felt they had a huge lead. May would not have called the election otherwise. The local election results pretty much confirmed it existed. After the Tories win very comfortably next week the puzzle will be why some polls detected such a strong Labour surge.

    The Labour surge is real, probably, but not enough to prevent an increase in the Conservative majority. The problem for Mrs May, unless she gets a landslide, is that the campaign has shone a harsh light on her fitness to lead, when she was hoping for a coronation. The complete lack of any substance in her manifesto means she will neither be able to say "I decide things around here", nor "The people voted for it. It was in the manifesto."
    The manifesto includes the important bits about BrExit, and lacks the awkward bits about taxation and grey bribes, that is all she needs. As for the rest, you are forgeting that the secret weapon of the Tory Party is loyalty, if she brings back a majority of 60+ it will be business as usual for the next three years (she has power of patronage, and enough spare votes to ignore troublemakers), unless something goes wrong that is conspicuously her fault. People might get nervous approaching the next election, but she is likely to pass the torch after BrExit anyway.
  • ConcanvasserConcanvasser Posts: 165

    The Tories clearly felt they had a huge lead. May would not have called the election otherwise. The local election results pretty much confirmed it existed. After the Tories win very comfortably next week the puzzle will be why some polls detected such a strong Labour surge.

    This is likely to be what happens in my opinion.
    Just back from a morning in Luton South. The demographic their is stacked against the Blues but they are convinced it is close and Labour appears worried.

    Stevenage expect to increase their majority with no worries.

    Luton S and Stevenage are where we should pick up signs of a Labour surge. They are not there.
    This is the stuff we need to hear about - last time around, informed anecdote was way better than the polling.

    The area I was in was mostly WWC Council house and lower middle class 1930s. Plenty of UKIP and Labour to Blue switching. Very little evidence this is a Labour seat. A more posters for Gavin but very few in total.

    Hitchin and Harpenden taking well to their new black MP to be. Rather a change from Peter Lilley I expect.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2017
    FF43 said:

    The Tories clearly felt they had a huge lead. May would not have called the election otherwise. The local election results pretty much confirmed it existed. After the Tories win very comfortably next week the puzzle will be why some polls detected such a strong Labour surge.

    The Labour surge is real, probably, but not enough to prevent an increase in the Conservative majority. The problem for Mrs May, unless she gets a landslide, is that the campaign has shone a harsh light on her fitness to lead, when she was hoping for a coronation. The complete lack of any substance in her manifesto means she will neither be able to say "I decide things around here", nor "The people voted for it. It was in the manifesto."
    The surge is real inasmuch as they've moved from around 25% to about 33% during the campaign.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,730

    Yorkcity said:

    Liar liar the The T May song is number 4 in the charts number ,2 in the I tune down loads.Some going to say it is not been played on radio stations.

    People still listen to music via the radio?

    The song has been all over my social media feeds. No one under the age of 35 (surely?) is seriously getting their music mainly from radio, so it not being played on their doesn't matter. As long as it's avaliable on Apple Music or Spotify, that's all that matters.
    People who drive?
  • woody662woody662 Posts: 255

    woody662 said:

    Having been out in the field for a few weeks now, I detect more Labour posters than previously but it's very difficult to find people other than this core who will vote for Corbyn. A lot less love for May than at the start. Lots of 'I'll vote for you but'

    I think we're looking at a swing to the Tories of 5-8% from last time,

    Hi Woody

    You would have found more reasons to be cheerful if you had seen the plentiful banners for Simon Hart and Stephen Crabb that festooned the A40 on my drive through Pembrokeshire yesterday. Some cheeky buggers had daubed 'for the few' on a couple of them but basically the opposition was nowhere to be seen.

    Two easy holds if the banner war is anything to go on.

    How u these days? Still robbing the local bookies?
    You should have seen what was daubed on one of ours I had to take down last week. Very I'm Alan Partridge series 1. Send me a mail on @hotmail.com and we can catch up on recent happenings,
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited June 2017
    viewcode said:

    I am personally very sceptical of the yougov panel...Watch Dave Gorman special on it...

    Linky?
    Is an episode of modern life is goodish on Dave. You can watch them for free online, if you wiki I am sure it will tell you which episode it was.

    There is all this nonsense like who if your favourite ant or Dec and what is your political outlook, and fans of one have totally opposed political views to the other...Which is nonsense they are double action...and the same panel say they don't know which is which.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958

    Conservative canvassers on here are consistently saying that their vote is up. Labour canvassers on here are consistently saying their vote is up. Of course, one or both groups might be lying or allowing hope to triumph over actuality, but the simplest explanation is that both are right, which ties in with the polls.

    I think both are true in Torbay. Tories are munching UKIP, Labour are getting the benefit of a tactical unwind from the LibDems, whose second Referendum idea is playing badly with those who want Brexit.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545
    AndyJS said:

    FF43 said:

    The Tories clearly felt they had a huge lead. May would not have called the election otherwise. The local election results pretty much confirmed it existed. After the Tories win very comfortably next week the puzzle will be why some polls detected such a strong Labour surge.

    The Labour surge is real, probably, but not enough to prevent an increase in the Conservative majority. The problem for Mrs May, unless she gets a landslide, is that the campaign has shone a harsh light on her fitness to lead, when she was hoping for a coronation. The complete lack of any substance in her manifesto means she will neither be able to say "I decide things around here", nor "The people voted for it. It was in the manifesto."
    The surge is real inasmuch as they've moved from around 25% to about 33% during the campaign.
    And as the Conservative vote share probably has also declined by a couple of percentage points, the Conservatives will do less well than they would have done at the start of the campaign - on today's data.
  • ConcanvasserConcanvasser Posts: 165

    Conservative canvassers on here are consistently saying that their vote is up. Labour canvassers on here are consistently saying their vote is up. Of course, one or both groups might be lying or allowing hope to triumph over actuality, but the simplest explanation is that both are right, which ties in with the polls.

    I think both are true in Torbay. Tories are munching UKIP, Labour are getting the benefit of a tactical unwind from the LibDems, whose second Referendum idea is playing badly with those who want Brexit.
    The something for everyone election. Unless you are a Lib Dem perhaps.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    woody662 said:

    woody662 said:

    Having been out in the field for a few weeks now, I detect more Labour posters than previously but it's very difficult to find people other than this core who will vote for Corbyn. A lot less love for May than at the start. Lots of 'I'll vote for you but'

    I think we're looking at a swing to the Tories of 5-8% from last time,

    Hi Woody

    You would have found more reasons to be cheerful if you had seen the plentiful banners for Simon Hart and Stephen Crabb that festooned the A40 on my drive through Pembrokeshire yesterday. Some cheeky buggers had daubed 'for the few' on a couple of them but basically the opposition was nowhere to be seen.

    Two easy holds if the banner war is anything to go on.

    How u these days? Still robbing the local bookies?
    You should have seen what was daubed on one of ours I had to take down last week. Very I'm Alan Partridge series 1. Send me a mail on @hotmail.com and we can catch up on recent happenings,
    Which constituency is this for?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    AndyJS said:

    FF43 said:

    The Tories clearly felt they had a huge lead. May would not have called the election otherwise. The local election results pretty much confirmed it existed. After the Tories win very comfortably next week the puzzle will be why some polls detected such a strong Labour surge.

    The Labour surge is real, probably, but not enough to prevent an increase in the Conservative majority. The problem for Mrs May, unless she gets a landslide, is that the campaign has shone a harsh light on her fitness to lead, when she was hoping for a coronation. The complete lack of any substance in her manifesto means she will neither be able to say "I decide things around here", nor "The people voted for it. It was in the manifesto."
    The surge is real inasmuch as they've moved from around 25% to about 33% during the campaign.
    So Labour now up a bit from 2015, Tories still up a lot since 2015. Isn't that the basic message of this election? And indeed, of the polls?

    The only issue on the polling is whether Labour are up a bit or quite a lot.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    AndyJS said:

    Interesting point: FIsher, Baxter and Hanretty all have the Labour share going up and seats going down. Would be the second election in a row where that happens for the reds.

    That would fit somewhat with a few weeks back, when Corbyn was fighting a leadership election rather than a general (by focusing on piling up votes in safe seats).
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited June 2017
    isam said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Liar liar the The T May song is number 4 in the charts number ,2 in the I tune down loads.Some going to say it is not been played on radio stations.

    People still listen to music via the radio?

    The song has been all over my social media feeds. No one under the age of 35 (surely?) is seriously getting their music mainly from radio, so it not being played on their doesn't matter. As long as it's avaliable on Apple Music or Spotify, that's all that matters.
    People who drive?
    I never listen to the radio in the car....

    Just a thing about music, remember witch is dead when Thatcher died, then all the survey's said she was up there with best pm, more popular than when actually in power, etc etc etc.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    edited June 2017


    The area I was in was mostly WWC Council house and lower middle class 1930s. Plenty of UKIP and Labour to Blue switching. Very little evidence this is a Labour seat. A more posters for Gavin but very few in total.

    Hitchin and Harpenden taking well to their new black MP to be. Rather a change from Peter Lilley I expect.

    I think your cut and paste has gone a bit awry - for clarity, Concanvasser was in Luton South, not MarqueeMark!
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    AndyJS said:

    FF43 said:

    The Tories clearly felt they had a huge lead. May would not have called the election otherwise. The local election results pretty much confirmed it existed. After the Tories win very comfortably next week the puzzle will be why some polls detected such a strong Labour surge.

    The Labour surge is real, probably, but not enough to prevent an increase in the Conservative majority. The problem for Mrs May, unless she gets a landslide, is that the campaign has shone a harsh light on her fitness to lead, when she was hoping for a coronation. The complete lack of any substance in her manifesto means she will neither be able to say "I decide things around here", nor "The people voted for it. It was in the manifesto."
    The surge is real inasmuch as they've moved from around 25% to about 33% during the campaign.
    So Labour now up a bit from 2015, Tories still up a lot since 2015. Isn't that the basic message of this election? And indeed, of the polls?

    The only issue on the polling is whether Labour are up a bit or quite a lot.
    The issue is whether the young are being detected in canvassing. People lie on the doorstep just as much as they are untruthful to pollsters.

  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651

    Yorkcity said:

    Liar liar the The T May song is number 4 in the charts number ,2 in the I tune down loads.Some going to say it is not been played on radio stations.

    People still listen to music via the radio?

    The song has been all over my social media feeds. No one under the age of 35 (surely?) is seriously getting their music mainly from radio, so it not being played on their doesn't matter. As long as it's avaliable on Apple Music or Spotify, that's all that matters.
    A side-note: the Official Singles Chart doesn't use radio airplay as a metric for deciding chart positions (unlike US charts) but Global's rival Big Top 40 does.

    As I understand it, radio airplay is still considered extremely important for getting into the charts though - there is a whole PR industry of "radio pluggers" whose job is solely to encourage DJs to play their clients' music, and for stations to add them to their playlist. That industry would have died out if it wasn't important for generating hype and consequently sales. (Social media may mean you hear things from friends, but where did they hear it from? The radio is one way of getting something out to the national consciousness. Social media just means it can reach you via someone else even if you don't listen to the radio.)
  • ConcanvasserConcanvasser Posts: 165


    The area I was in was mostly WWC Council house and lower middle class 1930s. Plenty of UKIP and Labour to Blue switching. Very little evidence this is a Labour seat. A more posters for Gavin but very few in total.

    Hitchin and Harpenden taking well to their new black MP to be. Rather a change from Peter Lilley I expect.

    I think your cut and paste has gone a bit awry - for clarity, Concanvasser was in Luton South, not MarqueeMark!
    Thanks Mark! Hope Torbay is as sunny as Bedfordshire today.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,232

    Conservative canvassers on here are consistently saying that their vote is up. Labour canvassers on here are consistently saying their vote is up. Of course, one or both groups might be lying or allowing hope to triumph over actuality, but the simplest explanation is that both are right, which ties in with the polls.

    Reports from canvassers are complete bunk and should be ignored. They hear what they want to hear and report what they want to have experienced. In 1997 there were Tory canvassers proclaiming they would retain seats that New Labour seized with majorities in the thousands.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979

    AndyJS said:

    The Tories clearly felt they had a huge lead. May would not have called the election otherwise. The local election results pretty much confirmed it existed. After the Tories win very comfortably next week the puzzle will be why some polls detected such a strong Labour surge.

    This is likely to be what happens in my opinion.
    Just back from a morning in Luton South. The demographic their is stacked against the Blues but they are convinced it is close and Labour appears worried.

    Stevenage expect to increase their majority with no worries.

    Luton S and Stevenage are where we should pick up signs of a Labour surge. They are not there.
    This is the stuff we need to hear about - last time around, informed anecdote was way better than the polling.
    Just back from a street stall in Barnes. LibDem and Tory stalls set up next to one another. LibDems handing out dozens of orange stickers. Barnes High Street is a walking parade of advertisements for the LibDems. Tories don't have any stickers. They were very slow to get up garden stakes too. One Tory activist said to me "it is as if the LibDems knew about the snap election and we didn't".

    I shook hands with Zac and asked him how he felt. A microsecond of hesitation then "Very good. How about you?". Speaking with Tory activists, they are more anxious than us. But who knows?

    Incidentally my cover is now blown with Zac. He thought I was a supporter.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545

    AndyJS said:

    FF43 said:

    The Tories clearly felt they had a huge lead. May would not have called the election otherwise. The local election results pretty much confirmed it existed. After the Tories win very comfortably next week the puzzle will be why some polls detected such a strong Labour surge.

    The Labour surge is real, probably, but not enough to prevent an increase in the Conservative majority. The problem for Mrs May, unless she gets a landslide, is that the campaign has shone a harsh light on her fitness to lead, when she was hoping for a coronation. The complete lack of any substance in her manifesto means she will neither be able to say "I decide things around here", nor "The people voted for it. It was in the manifesto."
    The surge is real inasmuch as they've moved from around 25% to about 33% during the campaign.
    So Labour now up a bit from 2015, Tories still up a lot since 2015. Isn't that the basic message of this election? And indeed, of the polls?

    The only issue on the polling is whether Labour are up a bit or quite a lot.
    The Conservatives had a 6 percentage point advantage over Labour in 2015 and a bare majority. Currently it has an average 9 percentage point advantage in the polls, but both parties have higher vote shares. As long as these figures hold the Conservatives will have a comfortably increased majority, but there are "pathways" where it would disappear.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,730

    Conservative canvassers on here are consistently saying that their vote is up. Labour canvassers on here are consistently saying their vote is up. Of course, one or both groups might be lying or allowing hope to triumph over actuality, but the simplest explanation is that both are right, which ties in with the polls.

    Reports from canvassers are complete bunk and should be ignored. They hear what they want to hear and report what they want to have experienced. In 1997 there were Tory canvassers proclaiming they would retain seats that New Labour seized with majorities in the thousands.
    Whereas the polls had NOM in 2015 and Remain in 2016
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Conservative canvassers on here are consistently saying that their vote is up. Labour canvassers on here are consistently saying their vote is up. Of course, one or both groups might be lying or allowing hope to triumph over actuality, but the simplest explanation is that both are right, which ties in with the polls.

    Reports from canvassers are complete bunk and should be ignored. They hear what they want to hear and report what they want to have experienced. In 1997 there were Tory canvassers proclaiming they would retain seats that New Labour seized with majorities in the thousands.
    No information should be ignored. Some requires more scepticism than others.
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    When people think of an Atomic Bomb, they think of the pictures of the ones used on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August 1945. Big circular things, but those were prototypes only. In the 1980's the Soviet Russians came up with a smaller version, and remember this technology is 40 odd years out of date (And as at 2014, there were still 84 of these unaccounted for). These make Submarine missile systems obsolete, how can you retaliate with a nuclear missile strike against a terrorist underground organisation, or a foreign governments "deniable" black op, let alone let loose a first strike? :
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gUBb4cunagA
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,232

    Conservative canvassers on here are consistently saying that their vote is up. Labour canvassers on here are consistently saying their vote is up. Of course, one or both groups might be lying or allowing hope to triumph over actuality, but the simplest explanation is that both are right, which ties in with the polls.

    Reports from canvassers are complete bunk and should be ignored. They hear what they want to hear and report what they want to have experienced. In 1997 there were Tory canvassers proclaiming they would retain seats that New Labour seized with majorities in the thousands.
    No information should be ignored. Some requires more scepticism than others.
    But it's only information pertaining to their own psychology. It describes nothing about the external world.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    OchEye said:

    When people think of an Atomic Bomb, they think of the pictures of the ones used on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August 1945. Big circular things, but those were prototypes only. In the 1980's the Soviet Russians came up with a smaller version, and remember this technology is 40 odd years out of date (And as at 2014, there were still 84 of these unaccounted for). These make Submarine missile systems obsolete, how can you retaliate with a nuclear missile strike against a terrorist underground organisation, or a foreign governments "deniable" black op, let alone let loose a first strike? :
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gUBb4cunagA

    Those are what my example this morning was based on: ISIS getting hold of 10 of those 84.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited June 2017

    Conservative canvassers on here are consistently saying that their vote is up. Labour canvassers on here are consistently saying their vote is up. Of course, one or both groups might be lying or allowing hope to triumph over actuality, but the simplest explanation is that both are right, which ties in with the polls.

    Reports from canvassers are complete bunk and should be ignored. They hear what they want to hear and report what they want to have experienced. In 1997 there were Tory canvassers proclaiming they would retain seats that New Labour seized with majorities in the thousands.
    No information should be ignored. Some requires more scepticism than others.
    But it's only information pertaining to their own psychology. It describes nothing about the external world.
    A better thing to consider is tory campaign reaction. Social care stuff clearly went bad and they were rowing back within a day or two. Now they don't seem to really be doing anything about anything, just seeing the clock out.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    edited June 2017

    Yorkcity said:

    Liar liar the The T May song is number 4 in the charts number ,2 in the I tune down loads.Some going to say it is not been played on radio stations.

    People still listen to music via the radio?

    The song has been all over my social media feeds. No one under the age of 35 (surely?) is seriously getting their music mainly from radio, so it not being played on their doesn't matter. As long as it's avaliable on Apple Music or Spotify, that's all that matters.
    Da fing is, most of the bite is in the video - without that it is forgettable ear-candy - so its the facebook/twitter shares that count to see how it matches up to
    everybody's favourite viral video
    (closing in on 5.7m views.)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958


    The area I was in was mostly WWC Council house and lower middle class 1930s. Plenty of UKIP and Labour to Blue switching. Very little evidence this is a Labour seat. A more posters for Gavin but very few in total.

    Hitchin and Harpenden taking well to their new black MP to be. Rather a change from Peter Lilley I expect.

    I think your cut and paste has gone a bit awry - for clarity, Concanvasser was in Luton South, not MarqueeMark!
    Thanks Mark! Hope Torbay is as sunny as Bedfordshire today.

    Spectacular - the Torbay airshow today - Red Arrows, Lancaster. Spitfire, Hurricane, Typhoon.... How much more of Brexit can you get in the air?
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