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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s polls range from ComRes 12% CON lead to Survation’s

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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    AndyJS said:

    surbiton said:

    BBC showing pictures of dead terrorists.

    Looked alive to me, but I could be wrong.
    Oh I hope they are alive, so they can spend their entire life in jail.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,940
    edited June 2017

    RobD said:

    surbiton said:



    What about selling arms worth billions of pounds to Muslim countries like Saudi Arabia which funds and arms terrorist organisations ? You left this out.

    Suspect that would be a huge issue if any of those weapons were used in an attack in the UK.
    Indirectly, they already are. If we are selling arms to the Saudis who fund terrorist organisations - those organisations are better equipped to recruit and train terrorists to attack on our soil. Step 1 of any global fightback against terrorism should be ending our business dealings with the terror funding saudis. Trump, for all his bravado was over there curtseying recently. Corbyn has at least promised an immediate end of sales on our part.
    Most of those arms go to fight rebels in Yemen, Saudi is not the problem in regard to our home grown terrorists, failure to properly control known extremists is (we now need tagging and maybe even internment and deportations) and Trump is at least bang on the money on a travel ban to Syria and Libya
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    rpjs said:

    Is it just me or does the SAS helicopter look like they bought AirWolf? Do they have a KnightRider as their car?

    I'm not sure that is an SAS helicopter.

    It looks a lot like one of the Met copters.
    The Verified journo said it was the SAS arriving. Do they not have their own transportation?
    To be honest I saw another verified journo say he saw the SAS deployed to Manchester, but turned to be the NW counter terrorist police.

    It is just so happens they wear the apparel of soldiers.

    Years ago, one of my army buddies did an analysis saying where the SAS had been deployed in one year according to the media.

    He said based on the media reports, the SAS was a division plus sized force (20,000 soliders) not a regiment of a couple of thousand troops.
    Fair enough....but doesn't the MET police helicopters normally have MET Police written on the side in bright yellow letters? It sure looks a lot like the helicopter that SAS have known to have had brought for them.
    The Met don't have any helicopters, there's now a National Police Air Service for all of England and Wales run by West Yorkshire police. According to Wikipedia, it only has 19 aircraft, one of which is on loan to Police Scotland after their single chopper crashed in Glasgow a couple of years ago.
    You are correct...and none of their helicopters look like the one in that photo.
  • Options
    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    surbiton said:

    BBC showing pictures of dead terrorists.

    Looked alive to me, but I could be wrong.
    Oh I hope they are alive, so they can spend their entire life in jail.
    Nah, dead's better I think.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961

    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    surbiton said:

    BBC showing pictures of dead terrorists.

    Looked alive to me, but I could be wrong.
    Oh I hope they are alive, so they can spend their entire life in jail.
    Nah, dead's better I think.
    Not if that is what they wanted.
  • Options
    ab195ab195 Posts: 477
    isam said:

    Fuck me! My first date staple is a beer in The Wheatsheaf then on to Brindisa... all the women who knocked me back recently were right to do so

    Bloody hell that's a bit risky! You can't book a table! I used to think of it as a 3rd/4th date sort of a place, when you won't look so bad if you can't get in. I salute your (metaphorical) balls.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,940

    HYUFD said:



    Saudi is bombing ISIS now and they execute terrorists

    Maybe we should get on that? Bring back the offence of treason and hanging for it.
    Voters would back it
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,141
    HYUFD said:

    In Japan Muslims are not even allowed permanent residency

    You are completely full of shit.
  • Options
    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    edited June 2017
    ab195 said:

    isam said:

    Fuck me! My first date staple is a beer in The Wheatsheaf then on to Brindisa... all the women who knocked me back recently were right to do so

    Bloody hell that's a bit risky! You can't book a table! I used to think of it as a 3rd/4th date sort of a place, when you won't look so bad if you can't get in. I salute your (metaphorical) balls.
    Glad it's not just me regarding the 'not booking a table risk factor'. My dates are usually thought-through with all the extended and scrupulous planning of the D-Day landings: knowing a table is waiting is essential.

    I need to loosen-up.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    surbiton said:

    BBC showing pictures of dead terrorists.

    Looked alive to me, but I could be wrong.
    Oh I hope they are alive, so they can spend their entire life in jail.
    Nah, dead's better I think.
    Yep costs us money to keep them in prison plus they then radicalize others
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Tim Farron finds himself on the front page of CNN's website:

    http://edition.cnn.com/
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,285

    HYUFD said:

    In Japan Muslims are not even allowed permanent residency

    You are completely full of shit.
    I was going to say

    http://www.snopes.com/muslims-in-japan/
  • Options
    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:



    Saudi is bombing ISIS now and they execute terrorists

    Maybe we should get on that? Bring back the offence of treason and hanging for it.
    Voters would back it
    I've always been against the death penalty but I would be up for changing my mind if it meant it could be applied to assailants such as tonight's.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    surbiton said:

    Floater said:

    TOPPING said:

    Floater said:

    TOPPING said:

    SeanT said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    isam said:

    Norstat poll for The Sunday Express

    Con 39 (-3) Lab 35 (+9) LD 8 (-2) UKIP 6 (-2)

    Changes since April

    Tories sub 40...if that happens they are totally f##ked.
    Don't worry it's all over
    Until I hear DimbleBore depressingly say the BBC Exit Poll predicts a Tory majority of 100...I am shitting it. I like Canada a lot....to visit...
    .
    Thank god you don't actually live here.
    Appeaser.
    That's it, Sean, let it out.

    Asking you same as Fatty: what would you do?
    What do you think we should do?
    OK I'll go first ahead of our keyboard warrior super army soldier types.

    We need parallel approaches. At the same time as winning on ideas, proving, showing that our values are such that they shouldn't be subject to challenge by any other ideology, I would come down like a fucking hammer on those who are planning harm or sympathise with those who mean us harm. But this latter I think we are doing and the very fact that these people are in this country, in the West, means that we are probably winning on the former also.

    .

    How about you?
    Its not easy

    Stop kowtowing to islamists - we self censor right now - fuck em

    Stop trying to shut down debate on the darker side of Islamic beliefs.

    Exclude people from this country if they went abroad to fight jihad or have preached hate.

    Cut down muslim immigration.

    What about selling arms worth billions of pounds to Muslim countries like Saudi Arabia which funds and arms terrorist organisations ? You left this out.
    Good point. Disappointing to see Trump there a few days ago.
    Saudi is bombing ISIS now and they execute terrorists
    After creating them in the first place. Where do you think the initial funding for ISIS came from ? The Gulf countries.

    But, of course, they are our friends.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,360

    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    surbiton said:

    BBC showing pictures of dead terrorists.

    Looked alive to me, but I could be wrong.
    Oh I hope they are alive, so they can spend their entire life in jail.
    Nah, dead's better I think.
    Not if you want to get any information out of them.

  • Options
    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    Nigelb said:

    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    surbiton said:

    BBC showing pictures of dead terrorists.

    Looked alive to me, but I could be wrong.
    Oh I hope they are alive, so they can spend their entire life in jail.
    Nah, dead's better I think.
    Not if you want to get any information out of them.

    So, capture alive then hanging after trial? Best of both worlds.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961

    Nigelb said:

    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    surbiton said:

    BBC showing pictures of dead terrorists.

    Looked alive to me, but I could be wrong.
    Oh I hope they are alive, so they can spend their entire life in jail.
    Nah, dead's better I think.
    Not if you want to get any information out of them.

    So, capture alive then hanging after trial? Best of both worlds.
    Wonder if judges still have those black caps.
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,141

    HYUFD said:

    In Japan Muslims are not even allowed permanent residency

    You are completely full of shit.
    I was going to say

    http://www.snopes.com/muslims-in-japan/
    That would have been a politer way to phrase it. But seriously HYUFD, you're circulating an easily debunked lie pushed around social media by racists. Please be more careful.
  • Options
    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    edited June 2017
    BBC News: assailant ran up to a girl in the street, stabbed her 10 times shouting "this is for allah".

    This is England in 2017.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,360
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    surbiton said:

    Floater said:

    TOPPING said:

    Floater said:

    TOPPING said:

    SeanT said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    isam said:

    Norstat poll for The Sunday Express

    Con 39 (-3) Lab 35 (+9) LD 8 (-2) UKIP 6 (-2)

    Changes since April

    Tories sub 40...if that happens they are totally f##ked.
    Don't worry it's all over
    Until I hear DimbleBore depressingly say the BBC Exit Poll predicts a Tory majority of 100...I am shitting it. I like Canada a lot....to visit...
    The idea that terrorist sympathisers and Britain hating communists could be in charge of the country in a week is making me extremely uncomfortable right now. I guess we all just have to trust that when people go to the ballot box they will know what to do.
    Thank god you don't actually live here.
    Appeaser.
    That's it, Sean, let it out.

    Asking you same as Fatty: what would you do?
    What do you think we should do?
    OK I'll go first ahead of our keyboard warrior super army soldier types.

    We need parallel approaches. At the same time as winning on ideas, proving, showing that our values are such that they shouldn't be subject to
    The fact is, that these days there is very little we can do about young people who have been radicalised to the point whereby instead of getting their ears pierced, they are prepared to attack people on the street.

    How did we beat PIRA? We talked, we won militarily and eventually they caved. But there are still active dissident republicans as we have seen from the news this weekend.

    How about you?
    Its not easy

    Stop kowtowing to islamists - we self censor right now - fuck em

    Stop trying to shut down debate on the darker side of Islamic beliefs.

    Exclude people from this country if they went abroad to fight jihad or have preached hate.

    Cut down muslim immigration.

    What about selling arms worth billions of pounds to Muslim countries like Saudi Arabia which funds and arms terrorist organisations ? You left this out.
    Good point. Disappointing to see Trump there a few days ago.
    Saudi is bombing ISIS now and they execute terrorists
    And have spent the last couple of decades funding extremist mosques and madrassars in various parts of the world.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274

    BBC News: assailant ran up to a girl in the street, stabbed her 10 times shouting "this is for allah".

    This is England in 2017.

    Its ok, twitter is telling me that it is nothing to do with Islam.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,201

    BBC News: assailant ran up to a girl in the street, stabbed her 10 times shouting "this is for allah".

    This is England in 2017.

    Its ok, twitter is telling me that it is nothing to do with Islam.
    "Mohammed was the world's first Islamist" - Discuss.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,360
    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    surbiton said:

    Floater said:

    TOPPING said:

    Floater said:

    TOPPING said:

    SeanT said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    isam said:

    Norstat poll for The Sunday Express

    Con 39 (-3) Lab 35 (+9) LD 8 (-2) UKIP 6 (-2)

    Changes since April

    Tories sub 40...if that happens they are totally f##ked.
    Don't worry it's all over
    Until I hear DimbleBore depressingly say the BBC Exit Poll predicts a Tory majority of 100...I am shitting it. I like Canada a lot....to visit...
    .
    Thank god you don't actually live here.
    Appeaser.
    That's it, Sean, let it out.

    Asking you same as Fatty: what would you do?
    What do you think we should do?
    OK I'll go first ahead of our keyboard warrior super army soldier types.

    We need parallel approaches. At the same time as winning on ideas, proving, showing that our values are such that they shouldn't be subject to challenge by any other ideology, I would come down like

    How about you?
    Its not easy

    Stop kowtowing to islamists - we self censor right now - fuck em

    Stop trying to shut down debate on the darker side of Islamic beliefs.

    Exclude people from this country if they went abroad to fight jihad or have preached hate.

    Cut down muslim immigration.

    What about selling arms worth billions of pounds to Muslim countries like Saudi Arabia which funds and arms terrorist organisations ? You left this out.
    Good point. Disappointing to see Trump there a few days ago.
    Saudi is bombing ISIS now and they execute terrorists
    After creating them in the first place. Where do you think the initial funding for ISIS came from ? The Gulf countries.

    But, of course, they are our friends.
    Along with extremist mosques and madrassars in various parts of the world.

  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274

    BBC News: assailant ran up to a girl in the street, stabbed her 10 times shouting "this is for allah".

    This is England in 2017.

    Its ok, twitter is telling me that it is nothing to do with Islam.
    "Mohammed was the world's first Islamist" - Discuss.
    Was he known locally as Dave?
  • Options
    camelcamel Posts: 815
    Whilst the bulk of posts on here tonight are making me feel like a lily livered liberal, I do detest the platitudinous handwringing from our 'political leaders'.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "What I saw on London Bridge
    Will Heaven"

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/06/saw-london-bridge/
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,360

    Nigelb said:

    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    surbiton said:

    BBC showing pictures of dead terrorists.

    Looked alive to me, but I could be wrong.
    Oh I hope they are alive, so they can spend their entire life in jail.
    Nah, dead's better I think.
    Not if you want to get any information out of them.

    So, capture alive then hanging after trial? Best of both worlds.
    Not really. The death penalty is uncivilised, and in this case would likely provide no deterrent, and create willing martyrs.
    Executing people just to assuage justifiable public anger would lower us some of the way towards the barbarians we are fighting.

  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    BBC News: assailant ran up to a girl in the street, stabbed her 10 times shouting "this is for allah".

    This is England in 2017.

    Abu Hamza was preaching hatred outside FInsbury Park mosque for about 15 years. We ignored him.
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    AndyJS said:

    BBC News: assailant ran up to a girl in the street, stabbed her 10 times shouting "this is for allah".

    This is England in 2017.

    Abu Hamza was preaching hatred outside FInsbury Park mosque for about 15 years. We ignored him.
    That went well didn't it
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,360
    Another loud, hopefully controlled explosion.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    AndyJS said:

    BBC News: assailant ran up to a girl in the street, stabbed her 10 times shouting "this is for allah".

    This is England in 2017.

    Abu Hamza was preaching hatred outside FInsbury Park mosque for about 15 years. We ignored him.
    Can thank the ECHR for part of that delay.
  • Options
    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    Nigelb said:


    Nigelb said:

    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    surbiton said:

    BBC showing pictures of dead terrorists.

    Looked alive to me, but I could be wrong.
    Oh I hope they are alive, so they can spend their entire life in jail.
    Nah, dead's better I think.
    Not if you want to get any information out of them.

    So, capture alive then hanging after trial? Best of both worlds.
    Not really. The death penalty is uncivilised, and in this case would likely provide no deterrent, and create willing martyrs.
    Executing people just to assuage justifiable public anger would lower us some of the way towards the barbarians we are fighting.

    That has always been my thoughts regarding capital pubishment but my patience is wearing a bit thin.

    Twitter rife with "false flag" conspiracy theories.

    Off to bed.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,940

    HYUFD said:

    In Japan Muslims are not even allowed permanent residency

    You are completely full of shit.
    I was going to say

    http://www.snopes.com/muslims-in-japan/
    That would have been a politer way to phrase it. But seriously HYUFD, you're circulating an easily debunked lie pushed around social media by racists. Please be more careful.
    OK apologies on that but Japan certainly does ban the use of Sharia law and it is about time we looked at doing the same
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Sun claims 7 involved

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3717745/london-bridge-terror-attack-suspect/

    "It was first thought that he was scooped in Vauxhall, where Met Police reported an incident just minutes after nearby London Bridge was struck by a van and knife assault.

    The suspect, seen wearing black, was cuffed and led away at an unknown location.

    His image appeared on TV, social media and was confirmed by witnesses to Sun reporters.

    Another suspect was arrested on Southwark Bridge.

    Cops are believed to have shot dead three with two more on the run."
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961

    Nigelb said:


    Nigelb said:

    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    surbiton said:

    BBC showing pictures of dead terrorists.

    Looked alive to me, but I could be wrong.
    Oh I hope they are alive, so they can spend their entire life in jail.
    Nah, dead's better I think.
    Not if you want to get any information out of them.

    So, capture alive then hanging after trial? Best of both worlds.
    Not really. The death penalty is uncivilised, and in this case would likely provide no deterrent, and create willing martyrs.
    Executing people just to assuage justifiable public anger would lower us some of the way towards the barbarians we are fighting.

    That has always been my thoughts regarding capital pubishment but my patience is wearing a bit thin.

    Twitter rife with "false flag" conspiracy theories.

    Off to bed.
    lol, who do they think did it?
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Floater said:

    Sun claims 7 involved

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3717745/london-bridge-terror-attack-suspect/

    "It was first thought that he was scooped in Vauxhall, where Met Police reported an incident just minutes after nearby London Bridge was struck by a van and knife assault.

    The suspect, seen wearing black, was cuffed and led away at an unknown location.

    His image appeared on TV, social media and was confirmed by witnesses to Sun reporters.

    Another suspect was arrested on Southwark Bridge.

    Cops are believed to have shot dead three with two more on the run."

    If true, Jesus f##king Christ...I am dreading how many casualties there will be if 7 people with knives have been on the rampage.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:


    Nigelb said:

    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    surbiton said:

    BBC showing pictures of dead terrorists.

    Looked alive to me, but I could be wrong.
    Oh I hope they are alive, so they can spend their entire life in jail.
    Nah, dead's better I think.
    Not if you want to get any information out of them.

    So, capture alive then hanging after trial? Best of both worlds.
    Not really. The death penalty is uncivilised, and in this case would likely provide no deterrent, and create willing martyrs.
    Executing people just to assuage justifiable public anger would lower us some of the way towards the barbarians we are fighting.

    That has always been my thoughts regarding capital pubishment but my patience is wearing a bit thin.

    Twitter rife with "false flag" conspiracy theories.

    Off to bed.
    lol, who do they think did it?
    Got to be that evil Mrs May...
  • Options
    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    edited June 2017
    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:


    Nigelb said:

    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    surbiton said:

    BBC showing pictures of dead terrorists.

    Looked alive to me, but I could be wrong.
    Oh I hope they are alive, so they can spend their entire life in jail.
    Nah, dead's better I think.
    Not if you want to get any information out of them.

    So, capture alive then hanging after trial? Best of both worlds.
    Not really. The death penalty is uncivilised, and in this case would likely provide no deterrent, and create willing martyrs.
    Executing people just to assuage justifiable public anger would lower us some of the way towards the barbarians we are fighting.

    That has always been my thoughts regarding capital pubishment but my patience is wearing a bit thin.

    Twitter rife with "false flag" conspiracy theories.

    Off to bed.
    lol, who do they think did it?
    Theresa May to win the election.

    Apparently Le Pen did the same in France.

    Seriously, these are our young people and they are growing up thinking this? I despair. And I'm only 32 myself.

    Night.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    May better be out with that podium in downing street tomorrow morning..I want to hear some proper Churchillian stuff.
  • Options
    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850

    May better be out with that podium in downing street tomorrow morning..I want to hear some proper Churchillian stuff.

    But also action. I want a pivot to action.
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    May better be out with that podium in downing street tomorrow morning..I want to hear some proper Churchillian stuff.

    But also action. I want a pivot to action.
    measured action - but action
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,982

    Is it just me or does the SAS helicopter look like they bought AirWolf? Do they have a KnightRider as their car?

    I'm not sure that is an SAS helicopter.

    It looks a lot like one of the Met copters.
    It's an AS365N as used by 658 squadron AAC as part of the Joint Special Forces Aviation Wing.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Floater said:

    May better be out with that podium in downing street tomorrow morning..I want to hear some proper Churchillian stuff.

    But also action. I want a pivot to action.
    measured action - but action
    Given if the YouGov / Survation poll is to be believed, got nothing to lose!
  • Options
    camelcamel Posts: 815
    Floater said:

    May better be out with that podium in downing street tomorrow morning..I want to hear some proper Churchillian stuff.

    But also action. I want a pivot to action.
    measured action - but action
    There's clearly a requirement to massively increase spending on watching, listening, following and arresting these salafists. Problem is, politically, May will look like a twat if she announces anything new before Friday.
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,286
    Electorate data per Sunday Times:

    "Data obtained from 43 of Labour’s 50 most vulnerable seats shows that only one, Lancaster and Fleetwood, had a surge in its electorate — of 7.2% — probably from Lancaster University.

    A further four seats had rises of 3-4%. However, the majority had rises of less than 2% and in nine of the 43 seats electorates have fallen"

    On the face of it very, very good news for the Conservatives.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited June 2017
    FFS....the terrorist that was shot and the photographer states this is the case...and the Guardian, what do the Guardian do,

    "The Guardian is not showing his face until his identity and connection to the incident has been established."

    Bloke shot by the police wearing what looks like a suicide vest...yeah he was probably some random.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961

    FFS....the terrorist that was shot and the photographer states this is the case...and the Guardian, what do the Guardian do,

    "The Guardian is not showing his face until his identity and connection to the incident has been established."

    Even the BBC have shown it.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    camel said:

    Floater said:

    May better be out with that podium in downing street tomorrow morning..I want to hear some proper Churchillian stuff.

    But also action. I want a pivot to action.
    measured action - but action
    There's clearly a requirement to massively increase spending on watching, listening, following and arresting these salafists. Problem is, politically, May will look like a twat if she announces anything new before Friday.
    Yeah, she really can't announce something. Unless she goes all Palpatine and cancels the election. :p
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    MikeL said:

    Electorate data per Sunday Times:

    "Data obtained from 43 of Labour’s 50 most vulnerable seats shows that only one, Lancaster and Fleetwood, had a surge in its electorate — of 7.2% — probably from Lancaster University.

    A further four seats had rises of 3-4%. However, the majority had rises of less than 2% and in nine of the 43 seats electorates have fallen"

    On the face of it very, very good news for the Conservatives.

    I am bricking until I hear the exit poll....I just have no clue what is going on and with these terrorist attacks it seems to throw everything up in the air.
  • Options
    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    camel said:

    Floater said:

    May better be out with that podium in downing street tomorrow morning..I want to hear some proper Churchillian stuff.

    But also action. I want a pivot to action.
    measured action - but action
    There's clearly a requirement to massively increase spending on watching, listening, following and arresting these salafists. Problem is, politically, May will look like a twat if she announces anything new before Friday.
    Yes, she can't announce anything as it will be, and will be seen as being, electioneering. She just has to be mourner in chief. But should she win, on Friday the work starts to sort this shit out.
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,982
    OUT said:

    jonny83 said:

    Is it just me or does the SAS helicopter look like they bought AirWolf? Do they have a KnightRider as their car?

    I'm not sure that is an SAS helicopter.

    It looks a lot like one of the Met copters.
    The Verified journo said it was the SAS arriving. Do they not have their own transportation?
    To be honest I saw another verified journo say he saw the SAS deployed to Manchester, but turned to be the NW counter terrorist police.

    It is just so happens they wear the apparel of soldiers.

    Years ago, one of my army buddies did an analysis saying where the SAS had been deployed in one year according to the media.

    He said based on the media reports, the SAS was a division plus sized force (20,000 soliders) not a regiment of a couple of thousand troops.
    Fair enough....but doesn't the MET police helicopters normally have MET Police written on the side in bright yellow letters? It sure looks a lot like the helicopter that SAS have known to have had brought for them.
    Only the military use that particular helicopter the Dauphin. But it won't be confirmed or denied anyway if the SAS are on the ground.
    Bit disappointing they don't have one of those transformer-esque American copters.
    They do have an Osprey, but that's for warzone type operations although they did a show of force in London before.
    No UK forces have CV-22/MV-22. There hasn't been export sales although Japan is close.

    Military aviation appears to be one of those subjects were people feel entitled to authoritatively opine even though they've never flown under any ROE more restrictive than "Do not move about the cabin when the seatbelt light is illuminated."
  • Options
    camelcamel Posts: 815
    MikeL said:

    Electorate data per Sunday Times:

    "Data obtained from 43 of Labour’s 50 most vulnerable seats shows that only one, Lancaster and Fleetwood, had a surge in its electorate — of 7.2% — probably from Lancaster University.

    A further four seats had rises of 3-4%. However, the majority had rises of less than 2% and in nine of the 43 seats electorates have fallen"

    On the face of it very, very good news for the Conservatives.

    Great tip on Lancaster and Fleetwood. Youthful Corbynista MP too, so might get a good share of resources and a good GOTV. Hugely unlikely save for labour, but 9/2 looks tempting.

    Have just placed a small value bet.
  • Options
    camelcamel Posts: 815
    Dura_Ace said:

    OUT said:

    jonny83 said:

    Is it just me or does the SAS helicopter look like they bought AirWolf? Do they have a KnightRider as their car?

    I'm not sure that is an SAS helicopter.

    It looks a lot like one of the Met copters.
    The Verified journo said it was the SAS arriving. Do they not have their own transportation?
    To be honest I saw another verified journo say he saw the SAS deployed to Manchester, but turned to be the NW counter terrorist police.

    It is just so happens they wear the apparel of soldiers.

    Years ago, one of my army buddies did an analysis saying where the SAS had been deployed in one year according to the media.

    He said based on the media reports, the SAS was a division plus sized force (20,000 soliders) not a regiment of a couple of thousand troops.
    Fair enough....but doesn't the MET police helicopters normally have MET Police written on the side in bright yellow letters? It sure looks a lot like the helicopter that SAS have known to have had brought for them.
    Only the military use that particular helicopter the Dauphin. But it won't be confirmed or denied anyway if the SAS are on the ground.
    Bit disappointing they don't have one of those transformer-esque American copters.
    They do have an Osprey, but that's for warzone type operations although they did a show of force in London before.
    No UK forces have CV-22/MV-22. There hasn't been export sales although Japan is close.

    Military aviation appears to be one of those subjects were people feel entitled to authoritatively opine even though they've never flown under any ROE more restrictive than "Do not move about the cabin when the seatbelt light is illuminated."
    I have seen an Osprey flying over Yorkshire this year. I assumed it was American. Do they have them in this country?
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited June 2017

    camel said:

    Floater said:

    May better be out with that podium in downing street tomorrow morning..I want to hear some proper Churchillian stuff.

    But also action. I want a pivot to action.
    measured action - but action
    There's clearly a requirement to massively increase spending on watching, listening, following and arresting these salafists. Problem is, politically, May will look like a twat if she announces anything new before Friday.
    Yes, she can't announce anything as it will be, and will be seen as being, electioneering. She just has to be mourner in chief. But should she win, on Friday the work starts to sort this shit out.
    Why can't she be seen to be taking the threat extremely seriously and say look if you elect me we will do x,y and z? I am sure the public will want to think the authorities are going to do something sensible than just wibble the usual bollocks.
  • Options
    camelcamel Posts: 815

    camel said:

    Floater said:

    May better be out with that podium in downing street tomorrow morning..I want to hear some proper Churchillian stuff.

    But also action. I want a pivot to action.
    measured action - but action
    There's clearly a requirement to massively increase spending on watching, listening, following and arresting these salafists. Problem is, politically, May will look like a twat if she announces anything new before Friday.
    Yes, she can't announce anything as it will be, and will be seen as being, electioneering. She just has to be mourner in chief. But should she win, on Friday the work starts to sort this shit out.
    Why can't she be seen to be taking the threat extremely seriously and say look if you elect me we will do x,y and z?
    Would look like it was "the cuts" that caused it. Any big changes this side of Thursday, electoral suicide, surely?
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,982
    camel said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    OUT said:

    jonny83 said:

    Is it just me or does the SAS helicopter look like they bought AirWolf? Do they have a KnightRider as their car?

    I'm not sure that is an SAS helicopter.

    It looks a lot like one of the Met copters.
    The Verified journo said it was the SAS arriving. Do they not have their own transportation?
    To be honest I saw another verified journo say he saw the SAS deployed to Manchester, but turned to be the NW counter terrorist police.

    It is just so happens they wear the apparel of soldiers.

    Years ago, one of my army buddies did an analysis saying where the SAS had been deployed in one year according to the media.

    He said based on the media reports, the SAS was a division plus sized force (20,000 soliders) not a regiment of a couple of thousand troops.
    Fair enough....but doesn't the MET police helicopters normally have MET Police written on the side in bright yellow letters? It sure looks a lot like the helicopter that SAS have known to have had brought for them.
    Only the military use that particular helicopter the Dauphin. But it won't be confirmed or denied anyway if the SAS are on the ground.
    Bit disappointing they don't have one of those transformer-esque American copters.
    They do have an Osprey, but that's for warzone type operations although they did a show of force in London before.
    No UK forces have CV-22/MV-22. There hasn't been export sales although Japan is close.

    Military aviation appears to be one of those subjects were people feel entitled to authoritatively opine even though they've never flown under any ROE more restrictive than "Do not move about the cabin when the seatbelt light is illuminated."
    I have seen an Osprey flying over Yorkshire this year. I assumed it was American. Do they have them in this country?
    USAF 7th Special Operations Squadron at Mildenhall.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,360
    Dura_Ace said:

    OUT said:

    jonny83 said:

    Is it just me or does the SAS helicopter look like they bought AirWolf? Do they have a KnightRider as their car?

    I'm not sure that is an SAS helicopter.

    It looks a lot like one of the Met copters.
    The Verified journo said it was the SAS arriving. Do they not have their own transportation?
    To be honest I saw another verified journo say he saw the SAS deployed to Manchester, but turned to be the NW counter terrorist police.

    It is just so happens they wear the apparel of soldiers.

    Years ago, one of my army buddies did an analysis saying where the SAS had been deployed in one year according to the media.

    He said based on the media reports, the SAS was a division plus sized force (20,000 soliders) not a regiment of a couple of thousand troops.
    Fair enough....but doesn't the MET police helicopters normally have MET Police written on the side in bright yellow letters? It sure looks a lot like the helicopter that SAS have known to have had brought for them.
    Only the military use that particular helicopter the Dauphin. But it won't be confirmed or denied anyway if the SAS are on the ground.
    Bit disappointing they don't have one of those transformer-esque American copters.
    They do have an Osprey, but that's for warzone type operations although they did a show of force in London before.
    No UK forces have CV-22/MV-22. There hasn't been export sales although Japan is close.

    Military aviation appears to be one of those subjects were people feel entitled to authoritatively opine even though they've never flown under any ROE more restrictive than "Do not move about the cabin when the seatbelt light is illuminated."
    Sick burn.

    Night all; stay safe.
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,141
    edited June 2017
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    In Japan Muslims are not even allowed permanent residency

    You are completely full of shit.
    I was going to say

    http://www.snopes.com/muslims-in-japan/
    That would have been a politer way to phrase it. But seriously HYUFD, you're circulating an easily debunked lie pushed around social media by racists. Please be more careful.
    OK apologies on that but Japan certainly does ban the use of Sharia law and it is about time we looked at doing the same
    FFS.

    Japan has the same position on sharia law as the UK or any other liberal democracy. What the snopes piece tells you is that Japan has a secular constitution, so in the event that the Japanese elected an Islamicist government and it wanted to mandate religious laws like compulsory mosque attendance it would be unconstitutional.

    But what people complaining about sharia law in the UK or US seem to be talking about is civil contracts where you make an agreement to enforce aspects of the religious law that your country's law doesn't have. Like British courts, Japanese courts would enforce these contracts in some situations, but if the contract conflicted with the law of the land then the law of the land would win.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited June 2017
    The transformer helicopters are really odd looking things. I bet when the designer first showed the bosses they said are you sure that can actually fly? And did you kid design that with his lego?
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    camel said:

    Floater said:

    May better be out with that podium in downing street tomorrow morning..I want to hear some proper Churchillian stuff.

    But also action. I want a pivot to action.
    measured action - but action
    There's clearly a requirement to massively increase spending on watching, listening, following and arresting these salafists. Problem is, politically, May will look like a twat if she announces anything new before Friday.
    Yes, she can't announce anything as it will be, and will be seen as being, electioneering. She just has to be mourner in chief. But should she win, on Friday the work starts to sort this shit out.
    Whoever wins.
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    At least 20 taken to hospital - night all
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    camel said:

    Floater said:

    May better be out with that podium in downing street tomorrow morning..I want to hear some proper Churchillian stuff.

    But also action. I want a pivot to action.
    measured action - but action
    There's clearly a requirement to massively increase spending on watching, listening, following and arresting these salafists. Problem is, politically, May will look like a twat if she announces anything new before Friday.
    Yes, she can't announce anything as it will be, and will be seen as being, electioneering. She just has to be mourner in chief. But should she win, on Friday the work starts to sort this shit out.
    Whoever wins.
    Jezza will invite them round for tea
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Witnesses say attackers in London terror rampage stormed a busy restaurant with foot-long knives and 'stabbed a customer in the face'
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961

    The transformer helicopters are really odd looking things. I bet when the designer first showed the bosses they said are you sure that can actually fly? And did you kid design that with his lego?

    Which helicopter is this?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961

    Witnesses say attackers in London terror rampage stormed a busy restaurant with foot-long knives and 'stabbed a customer in the face'

    Horrendous
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    RobD said:

    The transformer helicopters are really odd looking things. I bet when the designer first showed the bosses they said are you sure that can actually fly? And did you kid design that with his lego?

    Which helicopter is this?
    The Osprey.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Gerard Vowls, 47, who was in a pub near London Bridge, said he threw chairs and glasses at the attackers in a bid to stop them entering.

    They appear to have picked on a Millwall fan....
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited June 2017
    It appears somebody at the BBC has told their reporter to stop reporting fake news about who decides on the threat level. They actually had one report it properly.
  • Options
    camelcamel Posts: 815

    RobD said:

    The transformer helicopters are really odd looking things. I bet when the designer first showed the bosses they said are you sure that can actually fly? And did you kid design that with his lego?

    Which helicopter is this?
    The Osprey.
    The one I saw was flying in plane mode over my house, quite low. Very cool. Very, very noisy.
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    RobD said:

    Witnesses say attackers in London terror rampage stormed a busy restaurant with foot-long knives and 'stabbed a customer in the face'

    Horrendous
    This is horrendous

    "They were running up saying 'this is for Allah'.

    "They stabbed this girl maybe ten, 15 times. She was saying 'help me, help me'."
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    Floater said:

    RobD said:

    Witnesses say attackers in London terror rampage stormed a busy restaurant with foot-long knives and 'stabbed a customer in the face'

    Horrendous
    This is horrendous

    "They were running up saying 'this is for Allah'.

    "They stabbed this girl maybe ten, 15 times. She was saying 'help me, help me'."
    I don't know what I would do in that situation. Probably be scared shitless
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Apparently the news chief sub-editor of the Times had the van drive at him not once, but twice!
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited June 2017
    BBC correspondence, it takes at least one dozen people to follow a single suspect....and there are 3000.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    camel said:

    Floater said:

    May better be out with that podium in downing street tomorrow morning..I want to hear some proper Churchillian stuff.

    But also action. I want a pivot to action.
    measured action - but action
    There's clearly a requirement to massively increase spending on watching, listening, following and arresting these salafists. Problem is, politically, May will look like a twat if she announces anything new before Friday.
    Yes, she can't announce anything as it will be, and will be seen as being, electioneering. She just has to be mourner in chief. But should she win, on Friday the work starts to sort this shit out.
    Why can't she be seen to be taking the threat extremely seriously and say look if you elect me we will do x,y and z? I am sure the public will want to think the authorities are going to do something sensible than just wibble the usual bollocks.
    It can cut both ways. She could talk about increased action, but that needs resources. Let's not forget we have 20000 fewer police officers than 7 years ago.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    surbiton said:

    camel said:

    Floater said:

    May better be out with that podium in downing street tomorrow morning..I want to hear some proper Churchillian stuff.

    But also action. I want a pivot to action.
    measured action - but action
    There's clearly a requirement to massively increase spending on watching, listening, following and arresting these salafists. Problem is, politically, May will look like a twat if she announces anything new before Friday.
    Yes, she can't announce anything as it will be, and will be seen as being, electioneering. She just has to be mourner in chief. But should she win, on Friday the work starts to sort this shit out.
    Why can't she be seen to be taking the threat extremely seriously and say look if you elect me we will do x,y and z? I am sure the public will want to think the authorities are going to do something sensible than just wibble the usual bollocks.
    It can cut both ways. She could talk about increased action, but that needs resources. Let's not forget we have 20000 fewer police officers than 7 years ago.
    Suspect events like this would still happen with 20,000 more police officers.
  • Options
    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900

    The transformer helicopters are really odd looking things. I bet when the designer first showed the bosses they said are you sure that can actually fly? And did you kid design that with his lego?

    They really are, yes. Enormous range and speed compare to regular helicopters though, because it's basically a plane once it's taken off.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    surbiton said:

    camel said:

    Floater said:

    May better be out with that podium in downing street tomorrow morning..I want to hear some proper Churchillian stuff.

    But also action. I want a pivot to action.
    measured action - but action
    There's clearly a requirement to massively increase spending on watching, listening, following and arresting these salafists. Problem is, politically, May will look like a twat if she announces anything new before Friday.
    Yes, she can't announce anything as it will be, and will be seen as being, electioneering. She just has to be mourner in chief. But should she win, on Friday the work starts to sort this shit out.
    Why can't she be seen to be taking the threat extremely seriously and say look if you elect me we will do x,y and z? I am sure the public will want to think the authorities are going to do something sensible than just wibble the usual bollocks.
    It can cut both ways. She could talk about increased action, but that needs resources. Let's not forget we have 20000 fewer police officers than 7 years ago.
    Except that a load of plods in panda cars will be make little difference to stopping something like this.
  • Options
    camelcamel Posts: 815
    surbiton said:

    camel said:

    Floater said:

    May better be out with that podium in downing street tomorrow morning..I want to hear some proper Churchillian stuff.

    But also action. I want a pivot to action.
    measured action - but action
    There's clearly a requirement to massively increase spending on watching, listening, following and arresting these salafists. Problem is, politically, May will look like a twat if she announces anything new before Friday.
    Yes, she can't announce anything as it will be, and will be seen as being, electioneering. She just has to be mourner in chief. But should she win, on Friday the work starts to sort this shit out.
    Why can't she be seen to be taking the threat extremely seriously and say look if you elect me we will do x,y and z? I am sure the public will want to think the authorities are going to do something sensible than just wibble the usual bollocks.
    It can cut both ways. She could talk about increased action, but that needs resources. Let's not forget we have 20000 fewer police officers than 7 years ago.
    Difficult position to find herself in, politically. People will forgive her if teachers are getting shit pay rises, or nurses are using food banks, but no-one will forgive her if it looks like she's underfunded the anti-terrorist budget. Second duty of government is to protect the public.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    edited June 2017
    camel said:

    surbiton said:

    camel said:

    Floater said:

    May better be out with that podium in downing street tomorrow morning..I want to hear some proper Churchillian stuff.

    But also action. I want a pivot to action.
    measured action - but action
    There's clearly a requirement to massively increase spending on watching, listening, following and arresting these salafists. Problem is, politically, May will look like a twat if she announces anything new before Friday.
    Yes, she can't announce anything as it will be, and will be seen as being, electioneering. She just has to be mourner in chief. But should she win, on Friday the work starts to sort this shit out.
    Why can't she be seen to be taking the threat extremely seriously and say look if you elect me we will do x,y and z? I am sure the public will want to think the authorities are going to do something sensible than just wibble the usual bollocks.
    It can cut both ways. She could talk about increased action, but that needs resources. Let's not forget we have 20000 fewer police officers than 7 years ago.
    Difficult position to find herself in, politically. People will forgive her if teachers are getting shit pay rises, or nurses are using food banks, but no-one will forgive her if it looks like she's underfunded the anti-terrorist budget. Second duty of government is to protect the public.
    That's the part of the budget that has been protected, IIRC.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    MikeL said:

    Electorate data per Sunday Times:

    "Data obtained from 43 of Labour’s 50 most vulnerable seats shows that only one, Lancaster and Fleetwood, had a surge in its electorate — of 7.2% — probably from Lancaster University.

    A further four seats had rises of 3-4%. However, the majority had rises of less than 2% and in nine of the 43 seats electorates have fallen"

    On the face of it very, very good news for the Conservatives.

    Really ? What if there was only a small swing to the Tories in those seats ? In which case, these increases will be more than enough to keep them Labour.

    If the Tory lead is, say, 7%, then there will be zero swing compared to 2015
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited June 2017
    camel said:

    surbiton said:

    camel said:

    Floater said:

    May better be out with that podium in downing street tomorrow morning..I want to hear some proper Churchillian stuff.

    But also action. I want a pivot to action.
    measured action - but action
    There's clearly a requirement to massively increase spending on watching, listening, following and arresting these salafists. Problem is, politically, May will look like a twat if she announces anything new before Friday.
    Yes, she can't announce anything as it will be, and will be seen as being, electioneering. She just has to be mourner in chief. But should she win, on Friday the work starts to sort this shit out.
    Why can't she be seen to be taking the threat extremely seriously and say look if you elect me we will do x,y and z? I am sure the public will want to think the authorities are going to do something sensible than just wibble the usual bollocks.
    It can cut both ways. She could talk about increased action, but that needs resources. Let's not forget we have 20000 fewer police officers than 7 years ago.
    Difficult position to find herself in, politically. People will forgive her if teachers are getting shit pay rises, or nurses are using food banks, but no-one will forgive her if it looks like she's underfunded the anti-terrorist budget. Second duty of government is to protect the public.
    As I understand it the spooks ranks have expanded massively and had a lot of funding.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    surbiton said:

    MikeL said:

    Electorate data per Sunday Times:

    "Data obtained from 43 of Labour’s 50 most vulnerable seats shows that only one, Lancaster and Fleetwood, had a surge in its electorate — of 7.2% — probably from Lancaster University.

    A further four seats had rises of 3-4%. However, the majority had rises of less than 2% and in nine of the 43 seats electorates have fallen"

    On the face of it very, very good news for the Conservatives.

    Really ? What if there was only a small swing to the Tories in those seats ? In which case, these increases will be more than enough to keep them Labour.

    If the Tory lead is, say, 7%, then there will be zero swing compared to 2015
    But there is a swing to the conservatives among older voters, and the reverse among younger ones. So if the age distribution is skewed towards the older age, these will be less safe.
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited June 2017

    BBC correspondence, it takes at least one dozen people to follow a single suspect....and there are 3000.

    How many does it take to electronically monitor their spending, bank accounts, web use and phone metadata? To plant bugs and cameras in their homes and other premises? To monitor movement via phone movement, ticketing systems and face and number plate recognition on cctv?

    There is a lot that can be done without having teams to physically walk or drive round after suspects. We are not looking for cold war spies passing microdots to iron curtain diplomats.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961

    BBC correspondence, it takes at least one dozen people to follow a single suspect....and there are 3000.

    How many does it take to electronically monitor their spending, bank accounts, web use and phone metadata? To plant bugs and cameras in their homes and other premises? To monitor movement via phone movement, ticketing systems and face and number plate recognition on cctv?

    There is a lot that can be done without having teams to physically walk or drive round after suspects. We are not looking for cold war spies passing microdots to iron curtain diplomats.
    Wouldn't be surprised if all that is done automatically. It's interpreting it which takes the man-hours.
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited June 2017
    Deleted.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited June 2017

    BBC correspondence, it takes at least one dozen people to follow a single suspect....and there are 3000.

    How many does it take to electronically monitor their spending, bank accounts, web use and phone metadata? To plant bugs and cameras in their homes and other premises? To monitor movement via phone movement, ticketing systems and face and number plate recognition on cctv?

    There is a lot that can be done without having teams to physically walk or drive round after suspects. We are not looking for cold war spies passing microdots to iron curtain diplomats.
    I am sure all that is done, but I am going to guess that not all terrorists are total muppets and know this is the case. So they might instead think it is a good idea to communicate in person without the old mobile.

    CH4 (I think it was them) uncovered an women extremist meet-up that was held under the guise of some Islamic mother group that sounded harmless.
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,286
    surbiton said:

    MikeL said:

    Electorate data per Sunday Times:

    "Data obtained from 43 of Labour’s 50 most vulnerable seats shows that only one, Lancaster and Fleetwood, had a surge in its electorate — of 7.2% — probably from Lancaster University.

    A further four seats had rises of 3-4%. However, the majority had rises of less than 2% and in nine of the 43 seats electorates have fallen"

    On the face of it very, very good news for the Conservatives.

    Really ? What if there was only a small swing to the Tories in those seats ? In which case, these increases will be more than enough to keep them Labour.

    If the Tory lead is, say, 7%, then there will be zero swing compared to 2015
    I'm looking at the broader picture.

    If the electorate hasn't changed to any significant degree then I believe it's more likely that the ICM / ComRes approach will prove to be most accurate.

    ie If there is to be a big increase in young votes - ie the absolute number of young votes - then that is only likely to happen on the back of a substantial increase in the number of young people registered.

    This Sunday Times data, coupled with the article published 24 hours ago (see link), suggests that that has not happened - as I strongly doubt that the number of older people registered has fallen.

    http://www.politics.co.uk/news/2017/06/02/exclusive-newly-registered-voters-focused-on-student-seats
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Survation poll [ lead = 1% ]: Their weighted sample has 10/10 turnout of 18-24 year olds = 50%, 35-54 year olds = 66.9% and 55+ year olds =78.3%

    Those who voted Tory in 2015 and has a 10/10 chance of voting, 78.2% are saying they will vote Tory. The equivalent Labour vote is 84.4%
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    surbiton said:

    Survation poll [ lead = 1% ]: Their weighted sample has 10/10 turnout of 18-24 year olds = 50%, 35-54 year olds = 66.9% and 55+ year olds =78.3%

    Those who voted Tory in 2015 and has a 10/10 chance of voting, 78.2% are saying they will vote Tory. The equivalent Labour vote is 84.4%

    I question how representative that sample is, given it said 40% of them watched some/all of the debate live.
  • Options
    camelcamel Posts: 815
    MikeL said:

    surbiton said:

    MikeL said:

    Electorate data per Sunday Times:

    "Data obtained from 43 of Labour’s 50 most vulnerable seats shows that only one, Lancaster and Fleetwood, had a surge in its electorate — of 7.2% — probably from Lancaster University.

    A further four seats had rises of 3-4%. However, the majority had rises of less than 2% and in nine of the 43 seats electorates have fallen"

    On the face of it very, very good news for the Conservatives.

    Really ? What if there was only a small swing to the Tories in those seats ? In which case, these increases will be more than enough to keep them Labour.

    If the Tory lead is, say, 7%, then there will be zero swing compared to 2015
    I'm looking at the broader picture.

    If the electorate hasn't changed to any significant degree then I believe it's more likely that the ICM / ComRes approach will prove to be most accurate.

    ie If there is to be a big increase in young votes - ie the absolute number of young votes - then that is only likely to happen on the back of a substantial increase in the number of young people registered.

    This Sunday Times data, coupled with the article published 24 hours ago (see link), suggests that that has not happened - as I strongly doubt that the number of older people registered has fallen.

    http://www.politics.co.uk/news/2017/06/02/exclusive-newly-registered-voters-focused-on-student-seats
    All this data points to value in 5/2 on Leeds North West as a Labour gain.
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    So in last night's six polls, the Tories had leads as follows:
    6% ....... Opinium
    12% ..... ComRes
    1% ....... Survation
    9% ....... ORB
    4% ....... YouGov
    11% ..... ICM

    Guess which one OGH chose to feature with his bar chart?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    Six confirmed dead, and only three attackers (shot dead)
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    So in last night's six polls, the Tories had leads as follows:
    6% ....... Opinium
    12% ..... ComRes
    1% ....... Survation
    9% ....... ORB
    4% ....... YouGov
    11% ..... ICM

    Guess which one OGH chose to feature with his bar chart?

    Yes it was the ONLY poll carried out after Friday's QT event. Fieldwork timing is everything.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    edited June 2017

    So in last night's six polls, the Tories had leads as follows:
    6% ....... Opinium
    12% ..... ComRes
    1% ....... Survation
    9% ....... ORB
    4% ....... YouGov
    11% ..... ICM

    Guess which one OGH chose to feature with his bar chart?

    Yes it was the ONLY poll carried out after Friday's QT event. Fieldwork timing is everything.
    I wonder if the fact they had to get the replies within a single day may have biased the sample somewhat. There was an unusually high number reporting they had watched the debate live (if it were accurate it would have been the most watched TV show in years!)
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    I'm due to go to a special event at Borough Market on Tuesday evening
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    So in last night's six polls, the Tories had leads as follows:
    6% ....... Opinium
    12% ..... ComRes
    1% ....... Survation
    9% ....... ORB
    4% ....... YouGov
    11% ..... ICM

    Guess which one OGH chose to feature with his bar chart?

    Yes it was the ONLY poll carried out after Friday's QT event. Fieldwork timing is everything.
    Strange that ..... I would have thought that the methodology adopted and all that entails would be a more important aspect that the fact that a poll was taken after just one particular TV programme, watched by a tiny minority of the electorate using, as RobD points out, a wholly incredible sampling ratio.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,573
    RobD said:

    Six confirmed dead, and only three attackers (shot dead)

    Those asking for action have their answer...
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961

    RobD said:

    Six confirmed dead, and only three attackers (shot dead)

    Those asking for action have their answer...
    It was all over after eight minutes apparently. Felt like hours watching it.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,843
    Just woken up expecting eager discussion of the polls. Not this crap again.

    No matter what we do, we can't ever defend against vans and knives used as weapons. Hope everyone here is okay.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,573
    Sandpit said:

    Just woken up expecting eager discussion of the polls. Not this crap again.

    No matter what we do, we can't ever defend against vans and knives used as weapons. Hope everyone here is okay.

    The "good news" is Manchester apart all we've had to face recently has been no worse than vehicles and knives - not the armoury of automatic weapons seen in Paris. I've read before that the UK is regarded as a "hard" target - may last night's prompt police action reinforce that view.
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