If so, it will be an amazing achievement for a new party and a politician with zero electoral experience until he ran for President.
Of course we were assured many times on here that he would be a lame duck president and there would be no way on earth that a new party would command a majority in the Elysee. Another prediction victory for the PB Le Pennite clever-clogs.
I'm still waiting for the EU to collapse as that was apparently the reason why we should leave.
The EU has pulled together after Brexit which is apparently a reason why it's a club we don't want to be part of.
surely its a club they dont want us to be part of ?
for all your woolly sentiment the lack of movement on the EU side to re-engage with UK and find an accommodation is the most noticeable event of the last year
had it been France they would be falling over themselves to keep her on board
all animals are equal but some are more equal than others
The big test for the EU now will be Beppe Grillo in Italy next year
All these supposed big tests, refugees, Brexit, Wilders, Le Pen, AFD. The phrase passing with flying colours springs to mind.
Interesting looking at the Lib Dem possibilities including a few not mentioned. They clearly have chances in Bath, Cambridge, Cheltenham, OxWAB, Kingston, Twickenham, Southwark, Colchester, East Dumbarton, Edinburgh West, Fife NE, Argyllshire and possibly Caithness. So if their vote is concentrating, then they certainly could come out in the high teens rather than the low single figures.
I think the awful council performance for the yellows in E Dumb has muddied the tactical waters for Jo too much.
In East Dunbsrton the Lib Dems gained 2 council seats , how was that awful ?
1st pref counts. Murky tactical situation.
worse 1st pref counts last time and just as murky tactical situation last time .
Yes, but she held the seat last time round. That's what will save Ian Murray.
Ms. Forethought, a soft left party emerging from Labour could do incredibly well.
If Corbyn loses but sticks around, will the PLP split? We may find out.
It rather depends on how many sensible people lose their seats and how many silly people are elected for the first time. With the Labour Party it's hard to predict these days.
ThornburyThornberry has had a good campaign. Has earned a shout at the top job IMO.
Yes, she has been the best media performer of all the Labour front-bench, she's feisty and hits out quite effectively, she's not tainted with being identified with the sane wing of the party, whilst at the same time she's not obviously bonkers. So I wouldn't be at all surprised is she's the next Labour leader.
She's a lawyer who has turned career politicians and knows how to stick to her brief. I would not bet that much she is a convinced lefty.
The next Labour leader will not be based in London, IMO.
Thornbury claims she was brought up on a council estate - unlike Corbyn. So a genuine lefty.
I think she meant a Queens Counsel Estate
you know a big place in Surrey
is that where she cultivated her hatred of white van man and England Flags?
If so, it will be an amazing achievement for a new party and a politician with zero electoral experience until he ran for President.
Of course we were assured many times on here that he would be a lame duck president and there would be no way on earth that a new party would command a majority in the Elysee. Another prediction victory for the PB Le Pennite clever-clogs.
This will cause a meltdown at the Spectator. Very good news for France, though. Lucky them.
Indeed. What price a UK En Marche? Forward!
If a leftish party emerged in the UK that looked like it might be electorally successful, wouldn't the hard left just penetrate that party as well as / instead of Labour?
Reminds me of an Emerson poem.
They reckon ill who leave me out; When me they fly, I am the wings.
En Marche is basically the equivalent of the LDs in France with some Blairites added on, Corbyn is the equivalent of Melenchon or Hamon
By the way, Populus called me (obviuosly randomly) to ask if I'd voted and said they'd call back tomorrow when I had (they had no interest in how I was going to vote if I'd not done so yet), so they've obviously got an exit poll in the works.
Flicked over to Sky News before Daily Politics started and Corbyn was doing a rally at a place with a massive Lab majority. I don't get it...
That was the one broadcast to 6 cities simultaneously as well as Facebook live, where it was apparently watched by 1.5 million people. The idea is to show tremendous enthusiasm to a huge social media audience - makes more sense than May's approach of little local gatherings IMO, but we'll see.
Corbyn's final schedule is: Glasgow Central, Weaver Vale, Clwyd West, Watford, Harrow East, and the final rally in Islington South.
Meanwhile we're pushing hard in Broxtowe. My final pitch is here:
www.nickpalmer.org.uk
The constituency has more Labour posters and campaigners than I ever saw even in 1997, and the Tories have been busy focusing on what we believe to be a doomed effort to take Gedling and Nottingham South. Does any of this stuff make a difference? Search me, but we can only do our best!
You might cut Soubry's majority but end up losing Gedling and Nottingham South, we shall see
Gedling must be in trouble. If Labour lose Nottingham South we're probably heading for Blair 97' landslide territory so the fact NP says it's even in play makes me confident Labour are on the retreat.
Flicked over to Sky News before Daily Politics started and Corbyn was doing a rally at a place with a massive Lab majority. I don't get it...
Clearly Labour know they have lost the election and are trying to mitigate the damage...
I'm going to keep repeating this.
He was in weaver vale. Stop lying to create a narrative
Pot. Kettle.
Jeremy corbyn is campaigning in weaver vale and Aberconwy this afternoon (Tory seat)
Poster after poster saying he's in safe seats is so please not true.
Corbyn has visited more Tory seats than labour held seats since the campaign starts.
He was in Gateshead on Monday, held a big rally in Hull mid campaign and finishes off in Islington tomorrow, May is only going to marginals
Fact Corbyn has gone to more Tory seats than labour since the campaign started.
Including seats like Harlow and Warwick and Leamington he will never win even on his best polls while half the Labour seats he has visited are not even being targeted by the Tories
Flicked over to Sky News before Daily Politics started and Corbyn was doing a rally at a place with a massive Lab majority. I don't get it...
That was the one broadcast to 6 cities simultaneously as well as Facebook live, where it was apparently watched by 1.5 million people. The idea is to show tremendous enthusiasm to a huge social media audience - makes more sense than May's approach of little local gatherings IMO, but we'll see.
Corbyn's final schedule is: Glasgow Central, Weaver Vale, Clwyd West, Watford, Harrow East, and the final rally in Islington South.
Meanwhile we're pushing hard in Broxtowe. My final pitch is here:
www.nickpalmer.org.uk
The constituency has more Labour posters and campaigners than I ever saw even in 1997, and the Tories have been busy focusing on what we believe to be a doomed effort to take Gedling and Nottingham South. Does any of this stuff make a difference? Search me, but we can only do our best!
At the risk of talking up my own candidate, I don't really see why Tom Elliott is over 2/1 against holding FST. It's true that there are more Nationalist voters in the seat and it is very much a two-horse race. But the SDLP core isn't going to drop any more and there was a higher combined Unionist vote in the Assembly election than the SF vote.
I accept Michelle Gildernew is favourite, but I'd say TE should be no more than 6/4 against.
Just don't ask me for a prediction on South Belfast. I haven't the foggiest notion.
South Belfast must be the most exciting seat in the entire UK.
It's genuinely fascinating. Without being party-political, almost anyone on the ballot would make a decent MP and I wouldn't be surprised at any of FOUR candidates getting in. Makes tactical voting very, very difficult.
I will be interested to see how Canada goes. Just eyeing the markets now.
The gist of the article...Mercedes - low rake; stiff suspension and relatively long wheelbase does not play well with the softest Pirelli tyres and ails to keep them in their rather narrow thermal window, as it imposes much more variation in mechanical stress on the tyre walls, together with a tendency to understeer, than the softer suspension and shorter wheelbase of the Ferrari.
This is not an entirely novel analysis, by any means, but it is significant that it's confirmed by one of the great motor racing engineers, Enrique Scalabroni.
As far as Canada is concerned, if Mercedes can make the tyres work, they will win. They should certainly find it easier than Monaco, but there are doubts...
(note, I don't speak more than tourist Italian either, but there is google...)
My forecast for tomorrow, not sure if the maths stacks up:
Labour 160-180 seats; the Tories 380-410 seats. Corbyn strengthened; May weakened. The real fun begins on 9th June. Batten down the hatches and hold plenty of cash!
I think you will be right tories 46-48%, Labour 30 - 33% , i reckon tories around 390 - 400 seats, labour 170 - 180
At the risk of talking up my own candidate, I don't really see why Tom Elliott is over 2/1 against holding FST. It's true that there are more Nationalist voters in the seat and it is very much a two-horse race. But the SDLP core isn't going to drop any more and there was a higher combined Unionist vote in the Assembly election than the SF vote.
I accept Michelle Gildernew is favourite, but I'd say TE should be no more than 6/4 against.
Just don't ask me for a prediction on South Belfast. I haven't the foggiest notion.
South Belfast must be the most exciting seat in the entire UK.
Good morning fellow Tories and other PBers. A view from North Britain. There seems to be a universally held view both on here and among the chattering classes at Westminster, especially among the media that Theresa May has had a terrible campaign and Jeremy Corbyn has had a superb campaign.
Let's face it, if she gets anything like a 100 majority and probably more tomorrow evening and into Friday, she and her backroom team will have in fact played a blinder and it will have shown that as with 2015, the chatterati is in fact completely out of touch with real people on the ground.
Several of us yesterday posted on here that lots of ordinary people, not traditional Tory voters, have expressed admiration and support for Theresa May, in large part because she is not seen as part of the chattering class and Westminster chummy types.
Hmmm - May's ratings have fallen markedly over the course of the election campaign. But, as discussed here many times, crushingly mediocre beats toxically catastrophic every single day of the week.
These falling ratings are, however, provided to us by the same pollsters who can't agree on whether she's 1 or 14 points ahead.
For all we know her ratings haven't fallen. We won't even know tomorrow. We'll only know where they now are, not where they've been.
If so, it will be an amazing achievement for a new party and a politician with zero electoral experience until he ran for President.
Of course we were assured many times on here that he would be a lame duck president and there would be no way on earth that a new party would command a majority in the Elysee. Another prediction victory for the PB Le Pennite clever-clogs.
I'm still waiting for the EU to collapse as that was apparently the reason why we should leave.
The EU has pulled together after Brexit which is apparently a reason why it's a club we don't want to be part of.
surely its a club they dont want us to be part of ?
for all your woolly sentiment the lack of movement on the EU side to re-engage with UK and find an accommodation is the most noticeable event of the last year
had it been France they would be falling over themselves to keep her on board
all animals are equal but some are more equal than others
The big test for the EU now will be Beppe Grillo in Italy next year
All these supposed big tests, refugees, Brexit, Wilders, Le Pen, AFD. The phrase passing with flying colours springs to mind.
It lost Brexit of course and Grillo leads half the current Italian polls and is more Boris Johnson than Marine Le Pen
Of the outsiders, there's Greening and Patel. I'd much prefer the former since I'm not a Tory. Any reasons why either of them would garner little support? Then possibly also Jesse Norman and Liz Truss. I always forget who Liz is but she seems to be quite a good performer.
I'm don't think any of those names have made much impact, although that might change. Keep an eye on Esther McVey; who will be back in the Commons after tomorrow, and who deserves a senior post.
The definition of a nasty bitch.
You competing quite hard for that title Junkie!
Jesse Norman has been going about it the right way. A lot of people locally don't have a lot of time for him though, given his subservience to the party line. He's clearly very capable of independent thought ... unlike some Tories!!
I find it hard to take Truss seriously. If she was to speak on anything, I'd have a mental image of Have I Got News for You and the clips of her talking about 'new pork markets' ... and other delights.
Rory Stewart? Was set to make a name for himself as a select committe chairman. He was then neutralised - for now - by being made a junior minister.
@jimwaterson: Two Tory attack lines that seem to be really cutting through, according to Labour people: the "garden tax" and criticism of Diane Abbott.
I was shocked this morning to see a number of friends on my social accounts who definitely aren't Tories (and thought they would be voting Corbyn) and rarely share political stuff, are sharing a load of stuff about garden tax.
Apologies, I forgot Plaid!! Slight changes to my predictions below to include PC's predicted 3 seats.
---------------------
Right then, I am prepared for major egg on face but here are my predictions. Based on a general reading of the polling, some campaigning insights and just gut reaction!! Happy to hear your views, all in the spirit of political predictions.
Labour will gain a boost of positions and votes in the South of England and the big cities but with few seats benefits. This does though position them for future elections.
The Conservatives will make strides in Scotland, Wales, Midlands and North, making them truly a one nation party.
We will see a significant return of two party politics in England/Wales with a big strategic challenge for the Lib Dems, UKIP and Greens.
Scotland will see the Unionist/Nationalist divide institutionalised further.
I will be out at 05:00 hrs for the Dawn Raid in my Labour West Midlands Marginal which we Conservatives are targeting!
BTW I have decided to do what is now commonly referred to as a Diane Abbot in regards to attending the Jezza victory party I have been invited to. Lets hope nobody snaps me at a nearby train station.
My forecast for tomorrow, not sure if the maths stacks up:
Labour 160-180 seats; the Tories 380-410 seats. Corbyn strengthened; May weakened. The real fun begins on 9th June. Batten down the hatches and hold plenty of cash!
I think you will be right tories 46-48%, Labour 30 - 33% , i reckon tories around 390 - 400 seats, labour 170 - 180
Wishful thinking?
Actually terrorism works for and against May. I'd suggest the "GardenTax" has been more damaging for Lab in the last days of this campaign.
At the risk of talking up my own candidate, I don't really see why Tom Elliott is over 2/1 against holding FST. It's true that there are more Nationalist voters in the seat and it is very much a two-horse race. But the SDLP core isn't going to drop any more and there was a higher combined Unionist vote in the Assembly election than the SF vote.
I accept Michelle Gildernew is favourite, but I'd say TE should be no more than 6/4 against.
Just don't ask me for a prediction on South Belfast. I haven't the foggiest notion.
South Belfast must be the most exciting seat in the entire UK.
Turnout may even exceed 100%.
South Belfast is the Belfast of "The Fall". Aside from the unfortunate serial killing, the biggest danger is a dalliance with Gillian Anderson.
At the risk of talking up my own candidate, I don't really see why Tom Elliott is over 2/1 against holding FST. It's true that there are more Nationalist voters in the seat and it is very much a two-horse race. But the SDLP core isn't going to drop any more and there was a higher combined Unionist vote in the Assembly election than the SF vote.
I accept Michelle Gildernew is favourite, but I'd say TE should be no more than 6/4 against.
Just don't ask me for a prediction on South Belfast. I haven't the foggiest notion.
South Belfast must be the most exciting seat in the entire UK.
It's genuinely fascinating. Without being party-political, almost anyone on the ballot would make a decent MP and I wouldn't be surprised at any of FOUR candidates getting in. Makes tactical voting very, very difficult.
of this stuff make a difference? Search me, but we can only do our best!
What's your prediction for the election result, Nick?
And the best of luck with your efforts today.
This reminds me of the Gore and Clinton campaigns. Enormous numbers of people got involved who realised something was very seriously wrong in the country and that a right-wing victory would be disastrous. Let's hope this time we win. A tough goal indeed. But if we don't, horrors await.
Thanks! My best guess (and it's nothing more than that) is a 7-point Tory lead nationally (because that's the rough midpoint of the polls, and allows 1-2 points extra for the Mail/Sun etc.) but with some surprising regional deviation from what would otherwise be an almost identical result to last time. I think we may well take a number of Tory marginals while losing a number of our own. The position in Scotland is especially hard to predict.
I agree with your view of what happens if the Tories get back with added Brexit chaos, and think Labour will then be odds on for 2022, but it would be better for the country if we did it this time.
Flicked over to Sky News before Daily Politics started and Corbyn was doing a rally at a place with a massive Lab majority. I don't get it...
That was the one broadcast to 6 cities simultaneously as well as Facebook live, where it was apparently watched by 1.5 million people. The idea is to show tremendous enthusiasm to a huge social media audience - makes more sense than May's approach of little local gatherings IMO, but we'll see.
Corbyn's final schedule is: Glasgow Central, Weaver Vale, Clwyd West, Watford, Harrow East, and the final rally in Islington South.
Meanwhile we're pushing hard in Broxtowe. My final pitch is here:
www.nickpalmer.org.uk
The constituency has more Labour posters and campaigners than I ever saw even in 1997, and the Tories have been busy focusing on what we believe to be a doomed effort to take Gedling and Nottingham South. Does any of this stuff make a difference? Search me, but we can only do our best!
You might cut Soubry's majority but end up losing Gedling and Nottingham South, we shall see
Gedling must be in trouble. If Labour lose Nottingham South we're probably heading for Blair 97' landslide territory so the fact NP says it's even in play makes me confident Labour are on the retreat.
Yes I think Gedling will fall, Nottingham South narrow Labour hold
At the risk of talking up my own candidate, I don't really see why Tom Elliott is over 2/1 against holding FST. It's true that there are more Nationalist voters in the seat and it is very much a two-horse race. But the SDLP core isn't going to drop any more and there was a higher combined Unionist vote in the Assembly election than the SF vote.
I accept Michelle Gildernew is favourite, but I'd say TE should be no more than 6/4 against.
Just don't ask me for a prediction on South Belfast. I haven't the foggiest notion.
South Belfast must be the most exciting seat in the entire UK.
Am I alone in wondering whether Corbyn's large rallies are designed to intimidate the locals to stay away from polling stations? It used to be a standard tactic in Nazi and Communist 'elections' and worked a treat in Tower Hamlets, e.g.
No I think swing back is happening, the Corbyn surge is over, the mood has changed with the terror attacks, keeping safe is motivating the voters, and Corbyn and Abbot and Mc Donnell don't inspire voters to feel safe. Fear motivates voters, they are returning to nurse
Sad day if May gets an increased majority because of terrorism. Terrorism that's re-emerged only since she's been PM.
Good stuff from Al Jazeera. D'you know what? We may soon get the Saudi and Qatari dictatorships spilling the beans on each other. Both the Trump and May administrations (if the Tories win the election) may then be in serious trouble.
@jimwaterson: Two Tory attack lines that seem to be really cutting through, according to Labour people: the "garden tax" and criticism of Diane Abbott.
I was shocked this morning to see a number of friends on my social accounts who definitely aren't Tories (and thought they would be voting Corbyn) and rarely share political stuff, are sharing a load of stuff about garden tax.
I just mowed the lawn. Should I bother weeding the beds? Is there a tax-efficient way to do this? Could I move it off-shore?
The trick is to make the people think there established. That's where the traitors come in.
What are you going on about?
I'm talking about traitors who campaign for conservatives trickingvoters who make less than 80k a year that a vote for a conservative will benefit them and their families. It's a lie.
Only the rich benefit under a Tory government people who make 80k plus a year. Nobody else benefits. These people are traitors to the nation.
At the risk of talking up my own candidate, I don't really see why Tom Elliott is over 2/1 against holding FST. It's true that there are more Nationalist voters in the seat and it is very much a two-horse race. But the SDLP core isn't going to drop any more and there was a higher combined Unionist vote in the Assembly election than the SF vote.
I accept Michelle Gildernew is favourite, but I'd say TE should be no more than 6/4 against.
Just don't ask me for a prediction on South Belfast. I haven't the foggiest notion.
South Belfast must be the most exciting seat in the entire UK.
Turnout may even exceed 100%.
South Belfast is the Belfast of "The Fall". Aside from the unfortunate serial killing, the biggest danger is a dalliance with Gillian Anderson.
No I think swing back is happening, the Corbyn surge is over, the mood has changed with the terror attacks, keeping safe is motivating the voters, and Corbyn and Abbot and Mc Donnell don't inspire voters to feel safe. Fear motivates voters, they are returning to nurse
Sad day if May gets an increased majority because of terrorism. Terrorism that's re-emerged only since she's been PM.
My forecast for tomorrow, not sure if the maths stacks up:
Labour 160-180 seats; the Tories 380-410 seats. Corbyn strengthened; May weakened. The real fun begins on 9th June. Batten down the hatches and hold plenty of cash!
I think you will be right tories 46-48%, Labour 30 - 33% , i reckon tories around 390 - 400 seats, labour 170 - 180
Wishful thinking?
My sources tell me Labour phone banking is NOT going well, lots of supposedly solid Labour voters are not certain to be Labour voters tomorrow.
I think we're looking at a landslide, no matter what certain polling companies are saying.
of this stuff make a difference? Search me, but we can only do our best!
What's your prediction for the election result, Nick?
And the best of luck with your efforts today.
This reminds me of the Gore and Clinton campaigns. Enormous numbers of people got involved who realised something was very seriously wrong in the country and that a right-wing victory would be disastrous. Let's hope this time we win. A tough goal indeed. But if we don't, horrors await.
Thanks! My best guess (and it's nothing more than that) is a 7-point Tory lead nationally (because that's the rough midpoint of the polls, and allows 1-2 points extra for the Mail/Sun etc.) but with some surprising regional deviation from what would otherwise be an almost identical result to last time. I think we may well take a number of Tory marginals while losing a number of our own. The position in Scotland is especially hard to predict.
I agree with your view of what happens if the Tories get back with added Brexit chaos, and think Labour will then be odds on for 2022, but it would be better for the country if we did it this time.
That is not the IFS view today and published by George Osborne in the Evening Standard
The trick is to make the people think there established. That's where the traitors come in.
What are you going on about?
I'm talking about traitors who campaign for conservatives trickingvoters who make less than 80k a year that a vote for a conservative will benefit them and their families. It's a lie.
Only the rich benefit under a Tory government people who make 80k plus a year. Nobody else benefits. These people are traitors to the nation.
At the risk of talking up my own candidate, I don't really see why Tom Elliott is over 2/1 against holding FST. It's true that there are more Nationalist voters in the seat and it is very much a two-horse race. But the SDLP core isn't going to drop any more and there was a higher combined Unionist vote in the Assembly election than the SF vote.
I accept Michelle Gildernew is favourite, but I'd say TE should be no more than 6/4 against.
Just don't ask me for a prediction on South Belfast. I haven't the foggiest notion.
South Belfast must be the most exciting seat in the entire UK.
Turnout may even exceed 100%.
South Belfast is the Belfast of "The Fall". Aside from the unfortunate serial killing, the biggest danger is a dalliance with Gillian Anderson.
I think I'd take the risk
And actually, it's where my Gran is from, too.
You've obviously not watched the series. A dalliance with Gillian Anderson does not usually result in a long happy life for the dallier.
The trick is to make the people think there established. That's where the traitors come in.
What are you going on about?
I'm talking about traitors who campaign for conservatives trickingvoters who make less than 80k a year that a vote for a conservative will benefit them and their families. It's a lie.
Only the rich benefit under a Tory government people who make 80k plus a year. Nobody else benefits. These people are traitors to the nation.
I don't think that's quite true. Most people in this country earn less than 80k and quite a few of them, maybe even a majority, believe the country is better served by a Conservative government at the moment rather than one lead by Jeremy Corbyn...
The trick is to make the people think there established. That's where the traitors come in.
What are you going on about?
I'm talking about traitors who campaign for conservatives trickingvoters who make less than 80k a year that a vote for a conservative will benefit them and their families. It's a lie.
Only the rich benefit under a Tory government people who make 80k plus a year. Nobody else benefits. These people are traitors to the nation.
@jimwaterson: Two Tory attack lines that seem to be really cutting through, according to Labour people: the "garden tax" and criticism of Diane Abbott.
I was shocked this morning to see a number of friends on my social accounts who definitely aren't Tories (and thought they would be voting Corbyn) and rarely share political stuff, are sharing a load of stuff about garden tax.
I just mowed the lawn. Should I bother weeding the beds? Is there a tax-efficient way to do this? Could I move it off-shore?
"We live in an increasingly dangerous world" indeed! Well stop being mates with the Saudi money princes who fund most jihadist terrorism. A vote for the Tories is a vote for terrorism.
The trick is to make the people think there established. That's where the traitors come in.
What are you going on about?
I'm talking about traitors who campaign for conservatives trickingvoters who make less than 80k a year that a vote for a conservative will benefit them and their families. It's a lie.
Only the rich benefit under a Tory government people who make 80k plus a year. Nobody else benefits. These people are traitors to the nation.
Do I hear 'personal allowance'.
Read this article and look at the IFS graphic. Labour are making lowest income decile 7% worse off.
Just for a laugh... does anyone think the Tories could win Rochdale? Surely the anti-Tory vote will split quite a bit and this has never been as firmly Labour as some suggest and some parts did used to be quite blue (Old Littleborough and Saddleworth). I might have a wee tickle.
The trick is to make the people think there established. That's where the traitors come in.
What are you going on about?
I'm talking about traitors who campaign for conservatives trickingvoters who make less than 80k a year that a vote for a conservative will benefit them and their families. It's a lie.
Only the rich benefit under a Tory government people who make 80k plus a year. Nobody else benefits. These people are traitors to the nation.
Remind me, which Party has taken millions of the poorest out of the Income Tax net? (Hint: not Labour in its 13 years in power...)
Remind me, which party has introduced the National Living Wage, to the benefit of the poorest in society, whilst also reducing the deficit? (Hint: not Labour in its 13 years in power...)
Remind me, which party has taken up to 27% the amount which the top 1% pay in Income Tax? (Hint: not Labour in its 13 years in power...)
Gedling must be in trouble. If Labour lose Nottingham South we're probably heading for Blair 97' landslide territory so the fact NP says it's even in play makes me confident Labour are on the retreat.
Yes I think Gedling will fall, Nottingham South narrow Labour hold
I don't think Nottingham South IS in play, frankly, but the Tories do. We shall see. I don't have personal experience from Gedling in this election but I gather from colleagues that Labour reckon they'll hold.
Just for a laugh... does anyone think the Tories could win Rochdale? Surely the anti-Tory vote will split quite a bit and this has never been as firmly Labour as some suggest and some parts did used to be quite blue (Old Littleborough and Saddleworth). I might have a wee tickle.
That's my best WTF outside bet Tory win. That and Tom Watson losing.
The trick is to make the people think there established. That's where the traitors come in.
What are you going on about?
I'm talking about traitors who campaign for conservatives trickingvoters who make less than 80k a year that a vote for a conservative will benefit them and their families. It's a lie.
Only the rich benefit under a Tory government people who make 80k plus a year. Nobody else benefits. These people are traitors to the nation.
I don't think that's quite true. Most people in this country earn less than 80k and quite a few of them, maybe even a majority, believe the country is better served by a Conservative government at the moment rather than one lead by Jeremy Corbyn...
Labour does not have a monopoly on morality.
97% of them do in fact.
The other 3% of them don't make anything like enough to pay for everything to which Travel Junkie feels entitled. There is an upper limit to how much it is feasible for a state to spend, which is determined by how money its people have and how they will react if you take too much of it away.
The trick is to make the people think there established. That's where the traitors come in.
What are you going on about?
I'm talking about traitors who campaign for conservatives trickingvoters who make less than 80k a year that a vote for a conservative will benefit them and their families. It's a lie.
Only the rich benefit under a Tory government people who make 80k plus a year. Nobody else benefits. These people are traitors to the nation.
Do I hear 'personal allowance'.
or pledges in raising the higher rate threshold to £50k from £45k. These are 'buffet bowling' arguments.
I do wonder if Diane Abbott stepping aside as she has done is actually a cynical move.
Labour under Corbyn seem to have a pattern of either denying they have advocated extreme policies, met terrorists or engaged in behaviour that is designed to subvert the democratic process. The security services having open files on these characters for such a long period of time is indicative of the Cancer that is destroying Labour from within.
No doubt Abbott will be back in place after the dust has settled, you cannot trust a word that comes out of the Troika at the top of the Labour party.
Just for a laugh... does anyone think the Tories could win Rochdale? Surely the anti-Tory vote will split quite a bit and this has never been as firmly Labour as some suggest and some parts did used to be quite blue (Old Littleborough and Saddleworth). I might have a wee tickle.
I wouldn't mind Danczuk winning there, OK he's had a few issues but I think his work into the grooming scandal has almost broken him. I'd have a hard think about my vote there.
This applies to CS &ER too where the SCons got a greater vote share last month in the Council elections than the LibDems. Both the SCon candidate and LibDem candidate were elected as councillors, the former for the first time.
Interesting looking at the Lib Dem possibilities including a few not mentioned. They clearly have chances in Bath, Cambridge, Cheltenham, OxWAB, Kingston, Twickenham, Southwark, Colchester, East Dumbarton, Edinburgh West, Fife NE, Argyllshire and possibly Caithness. So if their vote is concentrating, then they certainly could come out in the high teens rather than the low single figures.
I think the awful council performance for the yellows in E Dumb has muddied the tactical waters for Jo too much.
Backed No Safety Car at 3 (Ladbrokes) for Canada. Checking Wikipedia, seems there's only been 2 of the last 7 races to feature one, and weather forecast is for it to be cloudy but dry.
At the risk of talking up my own candidate, I don't really see why Tom Elliott is over 2/1 against holding FST. It's true that there are more Nationalist voters in the seat and it is very much a two-horse race. But the SDLP core isn't going to drop any more and there was a higher combined Unionist vote in the Assembly election than the SF vote.
I accept Michelle Gildernew is favourite, but I'd say TE should be no more than 6/4 against.
Just don't ask me for a prediction on South Belfast. I haven't the foggiest notion.
South Belfast must be the most exciting seat in the entire UK.
Turnout may even exceed 100%.
South Belfast is the Belfast of "The Fall". Aside from the unfortunate serial killing, the biggest danger is a dalliance with Gillian Anderson.
I think I'd take the risk
And actually, it's where my Gran is from, too.
You've obviously not watched the series. A dalliance with Gillian Anderson does not usually result in a long happy life for the dallier.
Bit like wearing a red shirt in the first Star Trek series.
Good stuff from Al Jazeera. D'you know what? We may soon get the Saudi and Qatari dictatorships spilling the beans on each other. Both the Trump and May administrations (if the Tories win the election) may then be in serious trouble.
No I think swing back is happening, the Corbyn surge is over, the mood has changed with the terror attacks, keeping safe is motivating the voters, and Corbyn and Abbot and Mc Donnell don't inspire voters to feel safe. Fear motivates voters, they are returning to nurse
Sad day if May gets an increased majority because of terrorism. Terrorism that's re-emerged only since she's been PM.
oh yes 7/7 and the glasgow attack happened on her watch....oh wait suppose you'll be blaming her for paris as well
The trick is to make the people think there established. That's where the traitors come in.
What are you going on about?
I'm talking about traitors who campaign for conservatives trickingvoters who make less than 80k a year that a vote for a conservative will benefit them and their families. It's a lie.
Only the rich benefit under a Tory government people who make 80k plus a year. Nobody else benefits. These people are traitors to the nation.
Remind me, which Party has taken millions of the poorest out of the Income Tax net? (Hint: not Labour in its 13 years in power...)
That would be the Lib Dems. Pushing through a policy which the Tories explicitly ruled out during the 2010 GE campaign - but have been very eager to take credit for since.
I do wonder if Diane Abbott stepping aside as she has done is actually a cynical move.
Labour under Corbyn seem to have a pattern of either denying they have advocated extreme policies, met terrorists or engaged in behaviour that is designed to subvert the democratic process. The security services having open files on these characters for such a long period of time is indicative of the Cancer that is destroying Labour from within.
No doubt Abbott will be back in place after the dust has settled, you cannot trust a word that comes out of the Troika at the top of the Labour party.
Cheers Mr Meeks. I was beginning to think discussing the LDs on PB was like Fight Club.
TSE reminded me last night that so far this election I haven't managed to upset SNP supporters. I'm very annoyed I'm going to miss out on the full set.
Still time to complete the full set Mr Meeks – how are you at ducking incoming turnips?
Comments
The phrase passing with flying colours springs to mind.
Corbyn has gone to more Tory seats than labour since the campaign started.
I'm promised the final input by 5pm. So 12 out of 15 returns. One poorly, one on holiday and one refused - Bloody David Cameron !! ..
This is not an entirely novel analysis, by any means, but it is significant that it's confirmed by one of the great motor racing engineers, Enrique Scalabroni.
As far as Canada is concerned, if Mercedes can make the tyres work, they will win. They should certainly find it easier than Monaco, but there are doubts...
(note, I don't speak more than tourist Italian either, but there is google...)
For all we know her ratings haven't fallen. We won't even know tomorrow. We'll only know where they now are, not where they've been.
The trick is to make the people think there established. That's where the traitors come in.
I find it hard to take Truss seriously. If she was to speak on anything, I'd have a mental image of Have I Got News for You and the clips of her talking about 'new pork markets' ... and other delights.
Rory Stewart? Was set to make a name for himself as a select committe chairman. He was then neutralised - for now - by being made a junior minister.
Apologies, I forgot Plaid!! Slight changes to my predictions below to include PC's predicted 3 seats.
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Right then, I am prepared for major egg on face but here are my predictions. Based on a general reading of the polling, some campaigning insights and just gut reaction!! Happy to hear your views, all in the spirit of political predictions.
Conservatives - 44% - 379 seats
Labour - 35% - 197 seats
Lib Dems - 9% - 10 seats
UKIP - 4% - 0 seats
Greens - 3% - 1 seat
Others 5 % - 18 seats (NI) // 42 seats (SNP) // 3 seats (PC)
Majority of 108 for the Conservatives
Turnout - 69.2%
Labour will gain a boost of positions and votes in the South of England and the big cities but with few seats benefits. This does though position them for future elections.
The Conservatives will make strides in Scotland, Wales, Midlands and North, making them truly a one nation party.
We will see a significant return of two party politics in England/Wales with a big strategic challenge for the Lib Dems, UKIP and Greens.
Scotland will see the Unionist/Nationalist divide institutionalised further.
I will be out at 05:00 hrs for the Dawn Raid in my Labour West Midlands Marginal which we Conservatives are targeting!
Best,
James
And the best of luck with your efforts today.
This reminds me of the Gore and Clinton campaigns. Enormous numbers of people got involved who realised something was very seriously wrong in the country and that a right-wing victory would be disastrous. Let's hope this time we win. A tough goal indeed. But if we don't, horrors await.
Thanks! My best guess (and it's nothing more than that) is a 7-point Tory lead nationally (because that's the rough midpoint of the polls, and allows 1-2 points extra for the Mail/Sun etc.) but with some surprising regional deviation from what would otherwise be an almost identical result to last time. I think we may well take a number of Tory marginals while losing a number of our own. The position in Scotland is especially hard to predict.
I agree with your view of what happens if the Tories get back with added Brexit chaos, and think Labour will then be odds on for 2022, but it would be better for the country if we did it this time.
Or as others have put it:
Only the rich benefit under a Tory government people who make 80k plus a year. Nobody else benefits. These people are traitors to the nation.
And actually, it's where my Gran is from, too.
British ice-cream for British Prime Ministers. None of this neapolitan rubbish.
I think we're looking at a landslide, no matter what certain polling companies are saying.
I agree with your view of what happens if the Tories get back with added Brexit chaos, and think Labour will then be odds on for 2022, but it would be better for the country if we did it this time.
That is not the IFS view today and published by George Osborne in the Evening Standard
If Corbyn had a policy of scuttling all our Trident subs and then U-turned, would that be bad?
Labour does not have a monopoly on morality.
A technical chap I know slightly on Twitter reckoned it might go Ferrari's way. Very close. Rather good.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/
Remind me, which party has introduced the National Living Wage, to the benefit of the poorest in society, whilst also reducing the deficit? (Hint: not Labour in its 13 years in power...)
Remind me, which party has taken up to 27% the amount which the top 1% pay in Income Tax? (Hint: not Labour in its 13 years in power...)
Go to Rochdale and have a look. It will be the last ever constituency to stop being Labour....
The other 3% of them don't make anything like enough to pay for everything to which Travel Junkie feels entitled. There is an upper limit to how much it is feasible for a state to spend, which is determined by how money its people have and how they will react if you take too much of it away.
Labour under Corbyn seem to have a pattern of either denying they have advocated extreme policies, met terrorists or engaged in behaviour that is designed to subvert the democratic process. The security services having open files on these characters for such a long period of time is indicative of the Cancer that is destroying Labour from within.
No doubt Abbott will be back in place after the dust has settled, you cannot trust a word that comes out of the Troika at the top of the Labour party.
Betting PostBacked No Safety Car at 3 (Ladbrokes) for Canada. Checking Wikipedia, seems there's only been 2 of the last 7 races to feature one, and weather forecast is for it to be cloudy but dry.
Stop trying to create a narrative
@Frasergrant: I am #SNPbecause the people of Scotland should have the right to determine how their country is run-not have it decided for them.
He lives in Windsor...
suppose you'll be blaming her for paris as well
Pushing through a policy which the Tories explicitly ruled out during the 2010 GE campaign - but have been very eager to take credit for since.