If May resigns there's a legitimite constitutional case that the Queen will have to call for Corbyn... Labour are pushing the case that they can get a Budget and Queens speech through the Commons.
Not so.
The Queen would be advised by the PM that she was resigning as Conservative party leader but she would remain as PM until a new leader was elected. Essentially a repeat of May's own situation a year back.
I would also suggest the DUP would indicate they would vote against Jezza as PM and added to the Conservative bloc the Labour party could not command a majority in the HoC
Is there anyway of doing this so that May goes immediately and David Davis become interim leader/PM?
That way he'll be leading the start of the Brexit talks as both interim leader and Brexit secretary which might make is seem slightly less ridiculous in front of the EU?
No. HMQ cannot follow party tactics. She will only approach the elected leader of a party in the Commons. If that's exhausted she'd probably have to dissolve and call a GE rather than make it up on the hoof.
No she doesn't. Lloyd-George wasn't leader when he was made PM, for instance.
Constitutionally it's very very iffy ground and in the modern world I can't see her making that sort of leap of faith. End of monarchy type decision.
If May resigns there's a legitimite constitutional case that the Queen will have to call for Corbyn... Labour are pushing the case that they can get a Budget and Queens speech through the Commons.
Not so.
The Queen would be advised by the PM that she was resigning as Conservative party leader but she would remain as PM until a new leader was elected. Essentially a repeat of May's own situation a year back.
I would also suggest the DUP would indicate they would vote against Jezza as PM and added to the Conservative bloc the Labour party could not command a majority in the HoC
Is there anyway of doing this so that May goes immediately and David Davis become interim leader/PM?
That way he'll be leading the start of the Brexit talks as both interim leader and Brexit secretary which might make is seem slightly less ridiculous in front of the EU?
No. HMQ cannot follow party tactics. She will only approach the elected leader of a party in the Commons. If that's exhausted she'd probably have to dissolve and call a GE rather than make it up on the hoof.
Not true. If Davis became interim leader of the party he would be leader of the party most able to command a majority. Heck, if Anna Soubry rang the palace and confirmed she had the support of a majority of MPs, she would be asked to form a government, party leader or no.
Had a close look at the Scotland results and they are fascinating. There are now a lot of SNP/Labour marginals now. Labour could conceivably have well over 20 Scottish MPs after the next general election.
Things are certainly looking up for Labour since you abandoned ship.
A Tory three line whip, promising hopeful candidacies to the dispossessed and concessions to the DUP, why not?
A Unionist from NI (Lucian Fletcher is I think the poster's name) posted on pb.com that the DUP would block the boundary changes because they are very bad for Unionists in NI.
The boundary changes 600 model is dead. Forget about it. Start a new process.
Now where's my poster of Theresa May with Ian Paisley senior in her top pocket.
The boundary review process is already well under way and a lot of money will have been spent on it. Do we really want to waste all that time, money and effort on scrapping it?
Yes, it's based on old data now and there's little enthusiasm anywhere for something that was amounting to a Tory gerrymander. It's dead, will not get through the Commons.
How do the Tories gerrymander boundaries that are drawn up by an independent commission?
By gaming the input data, and cutting representation.
If May resigns there's a legitimite constitutional case that the Queen will have to call for Corbyn... Labour are pushing the case that they can get a Budget and Queens speech through the Commons.
Not so.
The Queen would be advised by the PM that she was resigning as Conservative party leader but she would remain as PM until a new leader was elected. Essentially a repeat of May's own situation a year back.
I would also suggest the DUP would indicate they would vote against Jezza as PM and added to the Conservative bloc the Labour party could not command a majority in the HoC
Is there anyway of doing this so that May goes immediately and David Davis become interim leader/PM?
That way he'll be leading the start of the Brexit talks as both interim leader and Brexit secretary which might make is seem slightly less ridiculous in front of the EU?
No. HMQ cannot follow party tactics. She will only approach the elected leader of a party in the Commons. If that's exhausted she'd probably have to dissolve and call a GE rather than make it up on the hoof.
No she doesn't. Lloyd-George wasn't leader when he was made PM, for instance.
Constitutionally it's very very iffy ground and in the modern world I can't see her making that sort of leap of faith. End of monarchy type decision.
Why is it very iffy ground? If the PM died while they were leading a majority government, would you then say that the leader of the smaller party would have to have a shot at being PM?
I thought YouGov's model was brave and interesting, and said so at the time. I just wish I'd paid more attention to it.
I thought it was brave and interesting. I didn't realise it would also be accurate!
It was very good, although not everywhere (as you'd expect). It had Bath down as a 3-way marginal whereas it remained a LD/Con marginal.
It did badly in Scotland but I give it a pass there due to extreme tactical voting considerations
A good point, and one you raised a few days before the GE on here. I also highlighted the shift upwards in the polls for Labour here in Scotland could end up delivering a second hit for the SNP in a lot of the seats where they were already in trouble due to anti SNP tactical voting. The SNP were leaking young left leaning voters to Corbyn mania in a lot of the very seats where they were desperately trying to shore up a core vote already under threat across Scotland. The only good news for me that came out of that EXIT poll was that SNP figure that backed my betting, every move that Sturgeon made in the last week of that GE campaign pointed to a party that was now in a total panic.
Sturgeon made a huge error of judgement when she used a private conversation with Kez Dugdale to try to attack her in that last Leadership debate. Any short term hit for Kez and the Labour party in the final day of campaigning was never going to be worth the longer term damage Sturgeon has now done to her own reputation. And despite all the noise coming out of Bute House about how damaged May and her Government is after the GE result, the two biggest political losers up here in Scotland today are the SNP and the Scottish Green party. Sturgeon will now be facing questions over the GE campaign she ran, and one that cost the party its former Leader and Deputy Leader/Leader at Westminster.
The most worrying thing for the SNP is that they have no safe seats now, at current support levels every seat could be lost due to Unionist tactical voting.
Pretty much there only hope is May/Conservatives really screwing the pooch with this DUP thing and make Tories toxic in Scotland again.
This election should be a warning to the Conservatives that the younger generation *will* swing very hard to the Left, unless they offer them something very attractive in future.
May promised to up investment in technical skills and training, apprenticeships and build 1.5 million new homes. The Conservative offering has to be on more jobs, higher wages, and home ownership.
I'm baffled as to why she didn't make more of this.
I didn't hear any of that tbh - if we're not noticing it on here the message isn't getting out too well. Dementia tax and free tuition were the two policies I heard - if Andy Burnham had that manifesto, he could well have won.
Other than the shocking ineptitude of May I've definitely got the impression that it's house prices and tuition that are the key areas causing the shift in the under 35s. However while I think building more houses where needed is a big part of the solution (simply allowing them to be built really), I do not actually think the shift back to free (or significantly cheaper) Uni is a great idea.
I myself have felt that despite doing a strong STEM degree in a good Uni, I did not actually get much out of it in terms of skills or knowledge that improve my ability to do my job. I think we have long been in a situation of tulip subsidies and this is particularly bad given that Uni is largely a positional good when it doesn't provide real human capital (as one assumes it must for certain degrees like medicine).
Given we live in a world where those with greater intelligence on average do better (not nearly of course as a rule but as a tendency) the truth is that unless university can be said to provide good additional human capital for the investment it is both a waste of resources and regressive in the long run as it divides the population into graduates and non-graduates.
I can believe that the research universities provide may be invaluable (at least in some subjects) but I am unconvinced that sending 50 percent of the population is really sensible. Germany seems to gear it's university system much more towards improving your actual ability to work in a particular field and seems to have had significant success with that model.
Go back seven weeks and tell Conservatives they'd lose their majority from a 20 point lead and they either ask what care in the community project you were in or that the Messiah has endorsed Jezza .... or probably both.
Granted, it's very disappointing, but there's still huge Conservative support.
There was a lot of NEW Conservative support as well.
The reports of 'lifelong Labour voters changing to Conservative' from the likes of Bolsover and Don Valley were true.
May is in the first denial stage of the five stages of grief - elisabeth kübler ross model.
Next comes anger this afternoon. Closely followed by bargaining this evening. Then depression throughout Sunday followed by acceptance on Monday morning.
It will play out like the last days of Thatcher.
Somehow I can't imagine a final bravura performance in the Commons.
A Tory three line whip, promising hopeful candidacies to the dispossessed and concessions to the DUP, why not?
A Unionist from NI (Lucian Fletcher is I think the poster's name) posted on pb.com that the DUP would block the boundary changes because they are very bad for Unionists in NI.
The boundary changes 600 model is dead. Forget about it. Start a new process.
Now where's my poster of Theresa May with Ian Paisley senior in her top pocket.
The boundary review process is already well under way and a lot of money will have been spent on it. Do we really want to waste all that time, money and effort on scrapping it?
Yes, it's based on old data now and there's little enthusiasm anywhere for something that was amounting to a Tory gerrymander. It's dead, will not get through the Commons.
How do the Tories gerrymander boundaries that are drawn up by an independent commission?
By gaming the input data, and cutting representation.
Going to IER games the system? Hmmm.
As for 650, I would agree with you on that point in the light of Brexit. Still, the boundaries are getting ever more out of date, and they need to be reviewed.
This election should be a warning to the Conservatives that the younger generation *will* swing very hard to the Left, unless they offer them something very attractive in future.
May promised to up investment in technical skills and training, apprenticeships and build 1.5 million new homes. The Conservative offering has to be on more jobs, higher wages, and home ownership.
I'm baffled as to why she didn't make more of this.
I didn't hear any of that tbh - if we're not noticing it on here the message isn't getting out too well. Dementia tax and free tuition were the two policies I heard - if Andy Burnham had that manifesto, he could well have won.
I don't think he possibly could. He comes across as saying whatever he's being paid to say, effectively the party line at the time. Ditto Ms Cooper.
Politicians who nearly always say what they think have a strong appeal. Anne Widdecombe did, although I tend to think that she would get on particularly well with the DUP.
If May resigns there's a legitimite constitutional case that the Queen will have to call for Corbyn... Labour are pushing the case that they can get a Budget and Queens speech through the Commons.
Not so.
The Queen would be advised by the PM that she was resigning as Conservative party leader but she would remain as PM until a new leader was elected. Essentially a repeat of May's own situation a year back.
I would also suggest the DUP would indicate they would vote against Jezza as PM and added to the Conservative bloc the Labour party could not command a majority in the HoC
Is there anyway of doing this so that May goes immediately and David Davis become interim leader/PM?
That way he'll be leading the start of the Brexit talks as both interim leader and Brexit secretary which might make is seem slightly less ridiculous in front of the EU?
No. HMQ cannot follow party tactics. She will only approach the elected leader of a party in the Commons. If that's exhausted she'd probably have to dissolve and call a GE rather than make it up on the hoof.
No she doesn't. Lloyd-George wasn't leader when he was made PM, for instance.
Constitutionally it's very very iffy ground and in the modern world I can't see her making that sort of leap of faith. End of monarchy type decision.
Why is it very iffy ground? If the PM died while they were leading a majority government, would you then say that the leader of the smaller party would have to have a shot at being PM?
It comes down to the act of resigning. Resigning means you can no longer command the confidence of the house, your government has failed. Death is different. I think. It's a minefield because of our ludicrous system of royal prerogative and constitution by convention.
Ugh I might well be wrong on this. We have a crap system. I'll butt out.
Go back seven weeks and tell Conservatives they'd lose their majority from a 20 point lead and they either ask what care in the community project you were in or that the Messiah has endorsed Jezza .... or probably both.
Granted, it's very disappointing, but there's still huge Conservative support.
There was a lot of NEW Conservative support as well.
The reports of 'lifelong Labour voters changing to Conservative' from the likes of Bolsover and Don Valley were true.
The Conservatives consolidated hardcore Brexit supporters just as Brexit is about to be exposed as a giant fraud.
May is in the first denial stage of the five stages of grief - elisabeth kübler ross model.
Next comes anger this afternoon. Closely followed by bargaining this evening. Then depression throughout Sunday followed by acceptance on Monday morning.
It will play out like the last days of Thatcher.
Somehow I can't imagine a final bravura performance in the Commons.
If May resigns there's a legitimite constitutional case that the Queen will have to call for Corbyn... Labour are pushing the case that they can get a Budget and Queens speech through the Commons.
Not so.
The Queen would be advised by the PM that she was resigning as Conservative party leader but she would remain as PM until a new leader was elected. Essentially a repeat of May's own situation a year back.
I would also suggest the DUP would indicate they would vote against Jezza as PM and added to the Conservative bloc the Labour party could not command a majority in the HoC
Is there anyway of doing this so that May goes immediately and David Davis become interim leader/PM?
That way he'll be leading the start of the Brexit talks as both interim leader and Brexit secretary which might make is seem slightly less ridiculous in front of the EU?
No. HMQ cannot follow party tactics. She will only approach the elected leader of a party in the Commons. If that's exhausted she'd probably have to dissolve and call a GE rather than make it up on the hoof.
No she doesn't. Lloyd-George wasn't leader when he was made PM, for instance.
Constitutionally it's very very iffy ground and in the modern world I can't see her making that sort of leap of faith. End of monarchy type decision.
Why is it very iffy ground? If the PM died while they were leading a majority government, would you then say that the leader of the smaller party would have to have a shot at being PM?
It comes down to the act of resigning. Resigning means you can no longer command the confidence of the house, your government has failed. Death is different. I think. It's a minefield because of our ludicrous system of royal prerogative and constitution by convention.
She isn't resigning because she can't command the majority of the house.
May is in the first denial stage of the five stages of grief - elisabeth kübler ross model.
Next comes anger this afternoon. Closely followed by bargaining this evening. Then depression throughout Sunday followed by acceptance on Monday morning.
It will play out like the last days of Thatcher.
Somehow I can't imagine a final bravura performance in the Commons.
It is clear that the Tories have twice gambled the nation's future for party advantage, and have lost both times. It's unclear to me whether the electorate will ever trust the party again, and it is fundamentally a party based on credibility and trust. The Tories could finished for a generation or more, and fully deserve to be.
What a mess we are in. What, exactly, has this party "conserved"?
People (well mainly fools) were saying the Tories will never win another majority after the 2010 general election. The Tories will outlast any of their critics.
They did, after all, win 43.5% of the vote.
You'd think this was 1997, from some comments.
There is nevertheless a chunk of votes who went Tory for fear of Corbyn, who might otherwise have been in the LibDem/Labour market. The challenge for Labour is to find a way of keeping young voters enthused at the prospect of some radical reshaping of the unfairness in the economy, whilst finding a leadership team without the baggage and weaknesses of Corbyn and the hard left. If they can do this then the pay could easily enter the next election as favourites.
If May resigns there's a legitimite constitutional case that the Queen will have to call for Corbyn... Labour are pushing the case that they can get a Budget and Queens speech through the Commons.
Not so.
The Queen would be advised by the PM that she was resigning as Conservative party leader but she would remain as PM until a new leader was elected. Essentially a repeat of May's own situation a year back.
I would also suggest the DUP would indicate they would vote against Jezza as PM and added to the Conservative bloc the Labour party could not command a majority in the HoC
Is there anyway of doing this so that May goes immediately and David Davis become interim leader/PM?
That way he'll be leading the start of the Brexit talks as both interim leader and Brexit secretary which might make us seem slightly less ridiculous in front of the EU?
Constitutionally it is possible but in reality it's a non starter.
It would a return to the days of men in grey suits recommending to the Queen who had the confidence of the party without any form of election. Lord Home was the last time this occurred.
Thoughts on who would be the best Stop Boris candidate?
I'd have thought Hammond is in a good position. The fact of his having being sidelined during the campaign will now be to his advantage.
Hammond was in Bristol, made the wrong sort of noises re GWR mainline electrification about 10 days ago. Can't recall him being challenged on HS2 or the other Osborne white elephant projects.
Is there a list of marginals which May visited, and how many of them went to Labour. How many of them are in the new top 10 marginal lists?
May is in the first denial stage of the five stages of grief - elisabeth kübler ross model.
Next comes anger this afternoon. Closely followed by bargaining this evening. Then depression throughout Sunday followed by acceptance on Monday morning.
It will play out like the last days of Thatcher.
Somehow I can't imagine a final bravura performance in the Commons.
A Tory three line whip, promising hopeful candidacies to the dispossessed and concessions to the DUP, why not?
A Unionist from NI (Lucian Fletcher is I think the poster's name) posted on pb.com that the DUP would block the boundary changes because they are very bad for Unionists in NI.
The boundary changes 600 model is dead. Forget about it. Start a new process.
Now where's my poster of Theresa May with Ian Paisley senior in her top pocket.
The boundary review process is already well under way and a lot of money will have been spent on it. Do we really want to waste all that time, money and effort on scrapping it?
Yes, it's based on old data now and there's little enthusiasm anywhere for something that was amounting to a Tory gerrymander. It's dead, will not get through the Commons.
Is the 600 constituencies as big a benefit to the Tories as it once appeared? For example, the boundary changes in the Southampton area moved Bassett (safe Tory) and Swaythling (3 way marginal) from safe Tory Romsey and Southampton North and into Labour marginal Southampton Test and moved safe Labour Bevois from Test and into Tory marginal Southampton Itchen. The result based on 2015 vote was that both seats would be Tory super marginals. If you run the same assumptions on 2017 vote both will be Labour marginals. I'm sure Royston Smith with his 31 majority will be delighted to have Bevois added to his constituency.
May is in the first denial stage of the five stages of grief - elisabeth kübler ross model.
Next comes anger this afternoon. Closely followed by bargaining this evening. Then depression throughout Sunday followed by acceptance on Monday morning.
It will play out like the last days of Thatcher.
Somehow I can't imagine a final bravura performance in the Commons.
I almost added a similar comment like that.
In retrospect here poor HoC performances should have been a clue that she would struggle on the campaign trail.
May was always the 'not X' politician - not Cameron or Osborne, not Boris or Gove, not Leadsom or Crabb and finally not Corbyn or Farron.
May is in the first denial stage of the five stages of grief - elisabeth kübler ross model.
Next comes anger this afternoon. Closely followed by bargaining this evening. Then depression throughout Sunday followed by acceptance on Monday morning.
It will play out like the last days of Thatcher.
Somehow I can't imagine a final bravura performance in the Commons.
May is in the first denial stage of the five stages of grief - elisabeth kübler ross model.
Next comes anger this afternoon. Closely followed by bargaining this evening. Then depression throughout Sunday followed by acceptance on Monday morning.
It will play out like the last days of Thatcher.
Somehow I can't imagine a final bravura performance in the Commons.
'I'm enjoying this!'
I don't think May is going to be made the Governor of anything though!
Hmm. There's certainly the smell of death around Therea's leadership. But the Tories need to be careful. Too much introspection about leadership - especially in these Brexit times - might look arrogant and disdainful to the public at large. The great success of the Cameron and Osborne era came about because, finally, for the Tories, politics wasn't all about them.
Are the Brexiteers going to start panicking a bit here? In danger of losing control of the Brexit process.
Because they didn't fully explain what Brexit means, and the hard Brexit mandate doesn't exist now and the Commons is full of people who will prioritise the single market membership above all others.
The only weapon in their armoury now is to topple Theresa May and install a hard Brexiteer as Tory leader/PM.
You need to remember that Ruth is in charge of an independent party. As much as she many deny she has done so she has successfully separated SCons from the UK Cons.
It is clear that the Tories have twice gambled the nation's future for party advantage, and have lost both times. It's unclear to me whether the electorate will ever trust the party again, and it is fundamentally a party based on credibility and trust. The Tories could finished for a generation or more, and fully deserve to be.
What a mess we are in. What, exactly, has this party "conserved"?
People (well mainly fools) were saying the Tories will never win another majority after the 2010 general election. The Tories will outlast any of their critics.
They did, after all, win 43.5% of the vote.
You'd think this was 1997, from some comments.
There is nevertheless a chunk of votes who went Tory for fear of Corbyn, who might otherwise have been in the LibDem/Labour market. The challenge for Labour is to find a way of keeping young voters enthused at the prospect of some radical reshaping of the unfairness in the economy, whilst finding a leadership team without the baggage and weaknesses of Corbyn and the hard left. If they can do this then the pay could easily enter the next election as favourites.
I think Labour are favourites at the next election, but if we've learned anything, it is that public opinion is both volatile and unpredictable.
Go back seven weeks and tell Conservatives they'd lose their majority from a 20 point lead and they either ask what care in the community project you were in or that the Messiah has endorsed Jezza .... or probably both.
Granted, it's very disappointing, but there's still huge Conservative support.
There was a lot of NEW Conservative support as well.
The reports of 'lifelong Labour voters changing to Conservative' from the likes of Bolsover and Don Valley were true.
The Conservatives consolidated hardcore Brexit supporters just as Brexit is about to be exposed as a giant fraud.
We're still waiting for the punishment budget, stock market crash and recession you promised us.
Their model was good, but their final poll wasn't.
..although in general they persevered with their ( largely correct ) methodology, throughout most of the campaign. The result in terms of prestige, you'd have to think, will be stuck on for a long time.
Go back seven weeks and tell Conservatives they'd lose their majority from a 20 point lead and they either ask what care in the community project you were in or that the Messiah has endorsed Jezza .... or probably both.
Granted, it's very disappointing, but there's still huge Conservative support.
Quite so.
That is why I believe it is foolish to shackle the Conservatives to the DUP. The Conservatives need to retain their coalition not alienate a substantial proportion of it.
Every time the DUP talk about gay issues, abortion, religion, climate change, dinosaurs and their influence on the Conservative government you can just see a pile of votes drain away. And then there's some of the "interesting" history of the party.
The PM, this one and the next should simply have dared the DUP to bring the government down. Instead the government will be looking over its shoulder waiting for the plug to be pulled at a time of the DUP's choosing whilst the opposition is wrapping the government to the DUP every day.
Go back seven weeks and tell Conservatives they'd lose their majority from a 20 point lead and they either ask what care in the community project you were in or that the Messiah has endorsed Jezza .... or probably both.
Granted, it's very disappointing, but there's still huge Conservative support.
There was a lot of NEW Conservative support as well.
The reports of 'lifelong Labour voters changing to Conservative' from the likes of Bolsover and Don Valley were true.
The Conservatives consolidated hardcore Brexit supporters just as Brexit is about to be exposed as a giant fraud.
We're still waiting for the punishment budget, stock market crash and recession you promised us.
To be fair as long as your flexible on the meaning of 'punishment budget' all of that could be tied to Brexit should we end up with a Corbyn government shortly!
It is clear that the Tories have twice gambled the nation's future for party advantage, and have lost both times. It's unclear to me whether the electorate will ever trust the party again, and it is fundamentally a party based on credibility and trust. The Tories could finished for a generation or more, and fully deserve to be.
What a mess we are in. What, exactly, has this party "conserved"?
People (well mainly fools) were saying the Tories will never win another majority after the 2010 general election. The Tories will outlast any of their critics.
They did, after all, win 43.5% of the vote.
You'd think this was 1997, from some comments.
There is nevertheless a chunk of votes who went Tory for fear of Corbyn, who might otherwise have been in the LibDem/Labour market. The challenge for Labour is to find a way of keeping young voters enthused at the prospect of some radical reshaping of the unfairness in the economy, whilst finding a leadership team without the baggage and weaknesses of Corbyn and the hard left. If they can do this then the pay could easily enter the next election as favourites.
I think Labour are favourites at the next election, but if we've learned anything, it is that public opinion is both volatile and unpredictable.
They are in a sense, because of the humiliation the Tories have just suffered. But could the Tory leader, campaign, and manifesto be worse than they were this time? And will anyone who wasn't persuaded by Corbyn's bribes this time be persuaded next time?
Right decision for Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill to quit as May's advisers, Timothy to his credit accepts part of the blame for the defeat 'He conceded his party had failed to communicate a sufficiently "positive" message to voters and address their concerns over years of austerity and inter-generational divisions, including over Brexit. "We were not talking to the people who decided to vote for Labour," he said. He defended the party's "honest and strong" manifesto, saying controversial proposals to use the value of peoples' homes to fund domiciliary care costs had been discussed in government for months and were not his own personal "pet project". But he added he took "responsibility for my part in this election campaign, which was the oversight of our policy programme" and "I regret the decision not to include in the manifesto a ceiling as well as a floor in our proposal to help meet the increasing cost of social care". '
Are the Brexiteers going to start panicking a bit here? In danger of losing control of the Brexit process.
Good.
The message from the election is clear. We don't want to give May a blank cheque on Brexit and we don't want Corbyn as PM either.
Let's see what the overnight polling says but I'm not sure there's a great appetite for a new Tory leader (let alone another election).
May needs to front up and say it's clear the country is still divided and she will run a more inclusive administration. The first act would be to appoint David Davis Deputy PM to lead a Brexit committee comprising representation from all four parties and all four nations.
It will be a zombie government but frankly Brexit is the only show in town and we need to be honest that only a solution appealing to the 52 and the 48 is going to work.
May is an idiot. She started with overwhelming support as the only sane adult left standing but she has ruled and campaigned on a "Me Or Them" platform, with "Them" slowly growing to include Remainers, Foreign Nationals, the Judiciary, Londoners, Students, and finally Old People.
She now needs to STFU and let others do the heavy lifting of leading, reaching out and healing. She should restrict herself to the more ceremonial aspects of the job.
It is clear that the Tories have twice gambled the nation's future for party advantage, and have lost both times. It's unclear to me whether the electorate will ever trust the party again, and it is fundamentally a party based on credibility and trust. The Tories could finished for a generation or more, and fully deserve to be.
What a mess we are in. What, exactly, has this party "conserved"?
People (well mainly fools) were saying the Tories will never win another majority after the 2010 general election. The Tories will outlast any of their critics.
They did, after all, win 43.5% of the vote.
You'd think this was 1997, from some comments.
There is nevertheless a chunk of votes who went Tory for fear of Corbyn, who might otherwise have been in the LibDem/Labour market. The challenge for Labour is to find a way of keeping young voters enthused at the prospect of some radical reshaping of the unfairness in the economy, whilst finding a leadership team without the baggage and weaknesses of Corbyn and the hard left. If they can do this then the pay could easily enter the next election as favourites.
I think Labour are favourites at the next election, but if we've learned anything, it is that public opinion is both volatile and unpredictable.
Not quite. They are 2.1 on Betfair for most seats.
It is clear that the Tories have twice gambled the nation's future for party advantage, and have lost both times. It's unclear to me whether the electorate will ever trust the party again, and it is fundamentally a party based on credibility and trust. The Tories could finished for a generation or more, and fully deserve to be.
What a mess we are in. What, exactly, has this party "conserved"?
People (well mainly fools) were saying the Tories will never win another majority after the 2010 general election. The Tories will outlast any of their critics.
They did, after all, win 43.5% of the vote.
You'd think this was 1997, from some comments.
There is nevertheless a chunk of votes who went Tory for fear of Corbyn, who might otherwise have been in the LibDem/Labour market. The challenge for Labour is to find a way of keeping young voters enthused at the prospect of some radical reshaping of the unfairness in the economy, whilst finding a leadership team without the baggage and weaknesses of Corbyn and the hard left. If they can do this then the pay could easily enter the next election as favourites.
I think Labour are favourites at the next election, but if we've learned anything, it is that public opinion is both volatile and unpredictable.
If Boris leads the Tories at an election in the next year or two I think he would get a small Tory majority but Labour would be favourites 5 years after that
Go back seven weeks and tell Conservatives they'd lose their majority from a 20 point lead and they either ask what care in the community project you were in or that the Messiah has endorsed Jezza .... or probably both.
Granted, it's very disappointing, but there's still huge Conservative support.
Quite so.
That is why I believe it is foolish to shackle the Conservatives to the DUP. The Conservatives need to retain their coalition not alienate a substantial proportion of it.
Every time the DUP talk about gay issues, abortion, religion, climate change, dinosaurs and their influence on the Conservative government you can just see a pile of votes drain away. And then there's some of the "interesting" history of the party.
The PM, this one and the next should simply have dared the DUP to bring the government down. Instead the government will be looking over its shoulder waiting for the plug to be pulled at a time of the DUP's choosing whilst the opposition is wrapping the government to the DUP every day.
Osborne made the point repeatedly on election night. The DUP are not the UUP. They are not Conservatives. The parties have little, if anything, in common. The modern Tory party had far more in common with the Lib Dems, far more.
Go back seven weeks and tell Conservatives they'd lose their majority from a 20 point lead and they either ask what care in the community project you were in or that the Messiah has endorsed Jezza .... or probably both.
Granted, it's very disappointing, but there's still huge Conservative support.
Quite so.
That is why I believe it is foolish to shackle the Conservatives to the DUP. The Conservatives need to retain their coalition not alienate a substantial proportion of it.
Every time the DUP talk about gay issues, abortion, religion, climate change, dinosaurs and their influence on the Conservative government you can just see a pile of votes drain away. And then there's some of the "interesting" history of the party.
The PM, this one and the next should simply have dared the DUP to bring the government down. Instead the government will be looking over its shoulder waiting for the plug to be pulled at a time of the DUP's choosing whilst the opposition is wrapping the government to the DUP every day.
Osborne made the point repeatedly on election night. The DUP are not the UUP. They are not Conservatives. The parties have little, if anything, in common. The modern Tory party had far more in common with the Lib Dems, far more.
Thoughts on who would be the best Stop Boris candidate?
I'd have thought Hammond is in a good position. The fact of his having being sidelined during the campaign will now be to his advantage.
Sorry, Hammond would almost certainly not beat Corbyn, he is too dull and establishment for the current mood of the electorate and like May was a Remainer and as Chancellor is wedded to austerity, if a little less than Osborne, Boris is charismatic and populist and the only viable option
I think Michael Fallon would work as a unity candidate and have had a small bet accordingly.
I find Fallon very reassuring when he on the TV. Some say he had a bad campaign but those interviews where the words of Boris were quoted at him show why Boris is NEVER going to work as PM. Boris has too much baggage and a lot of Remain voters I speak to don't like him after last year. I think May was banking on getting Brexit voters to switch to the Tories. A strategy I never thought would work as most Labour Leave supporters would rather boil a grandparent down for glue than vote Tory.
Still I think Fallon would be the least compromised and most effective campaigner as PM. He also has a safe seat where as Johnson is now in a semi-marginal and Rudd represents an ultra marginal. Hammond has no personality or charisma.
Had a close look at the Scotland results and they are fascinating. There are now a lot of SNP/Labour marginals now. Labour could conceivably have well over 20 Scottish MPs after the next general election.
I noticed that too. Maybe Corbyn will achieve the Scottish revival that he promised
Go back seven weeks and tell Conservatives they'd lose their majority from a 20 point lead and they either ask what care in the community project you were in or that the Messiah has endorsed Jezza .... or probably both.
Granted, it's very disappointing, but there's still huge Conservative support.
There was a lot of NEW Conservative support as well.
The reports of 'lifelong Labour voters changing to Conservative' from the likes of Bolsover and Don Valley were true.
The Conservatives consolidated hardcore Brexit supporters just as Brexit is about to be exposed as a giant fraud.
Even Corbyn backs Brexit, the LD plan for a second referendum was a giant flop even if May failed to get approval for hard Brexit
Thoughts on who would be the best Stop Boris candidate?
I'd have thought Hammond is in a good position. The fact of his having being sidelined during the campaign will now be to his advantage.
Sorry, Hammond would almost certainly not beat Corbyn, he is too dull and establishment for the current mood of the electorate and like May was a Remainer and as Chancellor is wedded to austerity, if a little less than Osborne, Boris is charismatic and populist and the only viable option
Boris means a Corbyn government. It's that simple.
Go back seven weeks and tell Conservatives they'd lose their majority from a 20 point lead and they either ask what care in the community project you were in or that the Messiah has endorsed Jezza .... or probably both.
Granted, it's very disappointing, but there's still huge Conservative support.
Quite so.
That is why I believe it is foolish to shackle the Conservatives to the DUP. The Conservatives need to retain their coalition not alienate a substantial proportion of it.
Every time the DUP talk about gay issues, abortion, religion, climate change, dinosaurs and their influence on the Conservative government you can just see a pile of votes drain away. And then there's some of the "interesting" history of the party.
The PM, this one and the next should simply have dared the DUP to bring the government down. Instead the government will be looking over its shoulder waiting for the plug to be pulled at a time of the DUP's choosing whilst the opposition is wrapping the government to the DUP every day.
Osborne made the point repeatedly on election night. The DUP are not the UUP. They are not Conservatives. The parties have little, if anything, in common. The modern Tory party had far more in common with the Lib Dems, far more.
Go back seven weeks and tell Conservatives they'd lose their majority from a 20 point lead and they either ask what care in the community project you were in or that the Messiah has endorsed Jezza .... or probably both.
Granted, it's very disappointing, but there's still huge Conservative support.
Quite so.
That is why I believe it is foolish to shackle the Conservatives to the DUP. The Conservatives need to retain their coalition not alienate a substantial proportion of it.
Every time the DUP talk about gay issues, abortion, religion, climate change, dinosaurs and their influence on the Conservative government you can just see a pile of votes drain away. And then there's some of the "interesting" history of the party.
The PM, this one and the next should simply have dared the DUP to bring the government down. Instead the government will be looking over its shoulder waiting for the plug to be pulled at a time of the DUP's choosing whilst the opposition is wrapping the government to the DUP every day.
Osborne made the point repeatedly on election night. The DUP are not the UUP. They are not Conservatives. The parties have little, if anything, in common. The modern Tory party had far more in common with the Lib Dems, far more.
Her alarming overtures to the DUP is further evidence that the Maybot has a tin ear.
Go back seven weeks and tell Conservatives they'd lose their majority from a 20 point lead and they either ask what care in the community project you were in or that the Messiah has endorsed Jezza .... or probably both.
Granted, it's very disappointing, but there's still huge Conservative support.
Quite so.
That is why I believe it is foolish to shackle the Conservatives to the DUP. The Conservatives need to retain their coalition not alienate a substantial proportion of it.
Every time the DUP talk about gay issues, abortion, religion, climate change, dinosaurs and their influence on the Conservative government you can just see a pile of votes drain away. And then there's some of the "interesting" history of the party.
The PM, this one and the next should simply have dared the DUP to bring the government down. Instead the government will be looking over its shoulder waiting for the plug to be pulled at a time of the DUP's choosing whilst the opposition is wrapping the government to the DUP every day.
Osborne made the point repeatedly on election night. The DUP are not the UUP. They are not Conservatives. The parties have little, if anything, in common. The modern Tory party had far more in common with the Lib Dems, far more.
At this point I can really not understand the benefits of anything formal. If anything a minority government with tacit DUP support would be much more 'strong and stable'. There has to be a real risk of the SCons refusing to wear this given the tarnishing by association that it could result in and that would turn the only significant positive of this election for the Tories into yet another black mark.
Go back seven weeks and tell Conservatives they'd lose their majority from a 20 point lead and they either ask what care in the community project you were in or that the Messiah has endorsed Jezza .... or probably both.
Granted, it's very disappointing, but there's still huge Conservative support.
Quite so.
That is why I believe it is foolish to shackle the Conservatives to the DUP. The Conservatives need to retain their coalition not alienate a substantial proportion of it.
Every time the DUP talk about gay issues, abortion, religion, climate change, dinosaurs and their influence on the Conservative government you can just see a pile of votes drain away. And then there's some of the "interesting" history of the party.
The PM, this one and the next should simply have dared the DUP to bring the government down. Instead the government will be looking over its shoulder waiting for the plug to be pulled at a time of the DUP's choosing whilst the opposition is wrapping the government to the DUP every day.
Osborne made the point repeatedly on election night. The DUP are not the UUP. They are not Conservatives. The parties have little, if anything, in common. The modern Tory party had far more in common with the Lib Dems, far more.
Whatever happened to the UUP?
The DUP sabotage the peace process and power sharing until they got to be in charge.
Are the Brexiteers going to start panicking a bit here? In danger of losing control of the Brexit process.
Because they didn't fully explain what Brexit means, and the hard Brexit mandate doesn't exist now and the Commons is full of people who will prioritise the single market membership above all others.
The only weapon in their armoury now is to topple Theresa May and install a hard Brexiteer as Tory leader/PM.
Someone like Steve Baker.
total idiocy
its not about the MPs its about the voters, if you think MPs ignoring the voters is a recipe for success then every election will be a surprise
as for somehow all will be healed by avoiding Brexit that's even dafter, the UK is beyond the pale for most of the core EU
were EU lepers, youre not actually going to get welcomed back, especially the Tories
quite why you think the Tories keeping a lanced boil going for nother 50 years is in their interest is even more idiotic
you think rosie eyed kippers want to relive the 50s youre just as bad trying to relive the noughties
the UK can never go back to where it was its like a marrage where one half has been caught cheating
Comments
If Boris can't be persuaded to let Hammond, David or Rudd be interim PM then he will be PM by Monday imho.
He'll probably go to the country in October.
Dave was PM for a day without being party leader.
Pretty much there only hope is May/Conservatives really screwing the pooch with this DUP thing and make Tories toxic in Scotland again.
I myself have felt that despite doing a strong STEM degree in a good Uni, I did not actually get much out of it in terms of skills or knowledge that improve my ability to do my job. I think we have long been in a situation of tulip subsidies and this is particularly bad given that Uni is largely a positional good when it doesn't provide real human capital (as one assumes it must for certain degrees like medicine).
Given we live in a world where those with greater intelligence on average do better (not nearly of course as a rule but as a tendency) the truth is that unless university can be said to provide good additional human capital for the investment it is both a waste of resources and regressive in the long run as it divides the population into graduates and non-graduates.
I can believe that the research universities provide may be invaluable (at least in some subjects) but I am unconvinced that sending 50 percent of the population is really sensible. Germany seems to gear it's university system much more towards improving your actual ability to work in a particular field and seems to have had significant success with that model.
The reports of 'lifelong Labour voters changing to Conservative' from the likes of Bolsover and Don Valley were true.
As for 650, I would agree with you on that point in the light of Brexit. Still, the boundaries are getting ever more out of date, and they need to be reviewed.
Politicians who nearly always say what they think have a strong appeal. Anne Widdecombe did, although I tend to think that she would get on particularly well with the DUP.
Ugh I might well be wrong on this. We have a crap system. I'll butt out.
But with urban populations having grown I'm doubtful if new boundaries would actually help the Conservatives.
SNP 64% Remain 36% Leave
2017 GE Voters
SNP 76% Remain 21% Leave
https://twitter.com/isabeloakeshott/status/873556872091062272
They have to find a way of making this work until the end of March 2019.
I'll get my coat...
It would a return to the days of men in grey suits recommending to the Queen who had the confidence of the party without any form of election. Lord Home was the last time this occurred.
Is there a list of marginals which May visited, and how many of them went to Labour. How many of them are in the new top 10 marginal lists?
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/873560648000708608
This is what Holyrood Mandy suggested earlier that set Malky off
Ruth gets a seat at the table. Nicola does not
In retrospect here poor HoC performances should have been a clue that she would struggle on the campaign trail.
May was always the 'not X' politician - not Cameron or Osborne, not Boris or Gove, not Leadsom or Crabb and finally not Corbyn or Farron.
Betting PostF1: a tip. We shall see if it proves silly or smart:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/06/canada-pre-qualifying-2017.html
Has Martin Kaboom Boon resigned yet?
As for The Sun dumping YG well.........
The only weapon in their armoury now is to topple Theresa May and install a hard Brexiteer as Tory leader/PM.
Someone like Steve Baker.
This is a bold move however
As for Martin Kaboom Boon he should pay with his job
That is why I believe it is foolish to shackle the Conservatives to the DUP. The Conservatives need to retain their coalition not alienate a substantial proportion of it.
Every time the DUP talk about gay issues, abortion, religion, climate change, dinosaurs and their influence on the Conservative government you can just see a pile of votes drain away. And then there's some of the "interesting" history of the party.
The PM, this one and the next should simply have dared the DUP to bring the government down. Instead the government will be looking over its shoulder waiting for the plug to be pulled at a time of the DUP's choosing whilst the opposition is wrapping the government to the DUP every day.
He'd do a great job of uniting the country behind labour.
"We were not talking to the people who decided to vote for Labour," he said.
He defended the party's "honest and strong" manifesto, saying controversial proposals to use the value of peoples' homes to fund domiciliary care costs had been discussed in government for months and were not his own personal "pet project".
But he added he took "responsibility for my part in this election campaign, which was the oversight of our policy programme" and "I regret the decision not to include in the manifesto a ceiling as well as a floor in our proposal to help meet the increasing cost of social care". '
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-40231107
The message from the election is clear. We don't want to give May a blank cheque on Brexit and we don't want Corbyn as PM either.
Let's see what the overnight polling says but I'm not sure there's a great appetite for a new Tory leader (let alone another election).
May needs to front up and say it's clear the country is still divided and she will run a more inclusive administration. The first act would be to appoint David Davis Deputy PM to lead a Brexit committee comprising representation from all four parties and all four nations.
It will be a zombie government but frankly Brexit is the only show in town and we need to be honest that only a solution appealing to the 52 and the 48 is going to work.
May is an idiot. She started with overwhelming support as the only sane adult left standing but she has ruled and campaigned on a "Me Or Them" platform, with "Them" slowly growing to include Remainers, Foreign Nationals, the Judiciary, Londoners, Students, and finally Old People.
She now needs to STFU and let others do the heavy lifting of leading, reaching out and healing. She should restrict herself to the more ceremonial aspects of the job.
I would hope that Ruth Davidson doesn't follow the May pattern of hubris followed by nemesis.
Still one thing we can be sure of - WFA isn't going to be taken away in England and kept in Scotland now.
Still I think Fallon would be the least compromised and most effective campaigner as PM. He also has a safe seat where as Johnson is now in a semi-marginal and Rudd represents an ultra marginal. Hammond has no personality or charisma.
For the next leadership contest I'd say the same.
If you subtract out the 59 seats north of the border, the Tories would have 305 seats and the rest combined would have 286, so a Tory majority of 19.
Independence Now!!
https://twitter.com/KingLobsterClaw/status/873224910881140736
Boris
Davis
Fallon
Hammond
Rudd
Edit: added Fallon
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour
its not about the MPs its about the voters, if you think MPs ignoring the voters is a recipe for success then every election will be a surprise
as for somehow all will be healed by avoiding Brexit that's even dafter, the UK is beyond the pale for most of the core EU
were EU lepers, youre not actually going to get welcomed back, especially the Tories
quite why you think the Tories keeping a lanced boil going for nother 50 years is in their interest is even more idiotic
you think rosie eyed kippers want to relive the 50s youre just as bad trying to relive the noughties
the UK can never go back to where it was its like a marrage where one half has been caught cheating