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  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    RobD said:

    tlg86 said:

    Anecdote alert. Bloke up the pub last night told my dad he voted Labour for the first time in his life on Thursday. Why? He has six grandchildren and he think it's outrageous that they should be saddled with so much debt if they go to university. And the Scots get it for nothing.

    I'm still of the view that free tuition would be quite regressive.,. it'd be the poorer taxpayers paying for middle class/wealthy students to go to university. The current system is basically a graduate tax, and doesn't impact things like your credit rating.
    Would be better just to have that explicitly: graduates pay (for example - haven't done the maths), 1% extra on the base rate and 3% extra on the top rate as a "graduate premium"
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780
    edited June 2017
    We happened to catch a small piece of a program about 70's TV last night. The casual racism, sexism, homophobia and indifference to the age of consent was remarkable. In the Province the 70's went on rather longer, possibly because the troubles drove religious affiliation in a way we have thankfully moved on from.

    I think TSE's piece is a tad over the top and insulting to British citizens but that does not mean that I think any kind of fixed arrangement is a good idea. Sturgeon has operated a minority government in Scotland for 2 years now. It does mean a less than active legislative program and a heavy reliance on administrative powers but it can be done. The Tories should put forward an extremely modest Queens speech and see what the Commons does about it. On individual measures they will need to consult other parties. That will include the DUP.

    In the meantime they should start the search for their next leader.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,981

    Stray thought: when is David Cameron's autobiography coming out?

    The original plan was in H1 2018.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Stray thought: when is David Cameron's autobiography coming out?

    The original plan was in H1 2018.
    He might want to bring that forward.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,039

    Sean_F said:

    nichomar said:

    Actually I doubt there will be an election when you think a bit deeper. Why would the Tories take the risk, they can carry onas if nothing has happened until a number of them die or resign and they lose the subsequent by election. They will wait until things are looking better for them and may even keep May to avoide the pain of a leadership contest and claims of the new leaders lack of mandate.

    The Conservatives have no grounds for seeking another election.
    There is likely to be no choice, the government will collapse fairly quickly, and the electorate are unlikely to thank the Tories.

    It is 1974 revisited.
    Why would the government collapse fairly quickly? This looks more like October 1974 than February 1974 to me.
    I agree with you, particularly with a new PM in 6-12 months.

    This Parliament was never going to do much more than pass budgets and deal with Brexit, anyway. Provided they can find a consensual cross-party approach to the latter they should be fine.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    DavidL said:

    We happened to catch a small piece of a program about 70's TV last night. The casual racism, sexism, homophobia and indifference to the age of consent was remarkable. In the Province the 70's went on rather longer, possibly because the troubles drove religious affiliation in a way we have thankfully moved on from.

    I think TSE's piece is a tad over the top and insulting to British citizens but that does not mean that I think any kind of fixed arrangement is a good idea. Sturgeon has operated a minority government in Scotland for 2 years now. It does mean a less than active legislative program and a heavy reliance on administrative powers but it can be done. The Tories should put forward an extremely modest Queens speech and see what the Commons does about it. On individual measures they will need to consult other parties. That will include the DUP.

    In the meantime they should start the search for their next leader.

    Spot on
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004

    Sean_F said:

    nichomar said:

    Actually I doubt there will be an election when you think a bit deeper. Why would the Tories take the risk, they can carry onas if nothing has happened until a number of them die or resign and they lose the subsequent by election. They will wait until things are looking better for them and may even keep May to avoide the pain of a leadership contest and claims of the new leaders lack of mandate.

    The Conservatives have no grounds for seeking another election.
    There is likely to be no choice, the government will collapse fairly quickly, and the electorate are unlikely to thank the Tories.

    It is 1974 revisited.
    So are the Lib Dems going to collapse the Government
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,981

    Stray thought: when is David Cameron's autobiography coming out?

    The original plan was in H1 2018.
    He might want to bring that forward.
    Well I have suggested it should be serialised in the papers the week before the Tory conference, but I think he cares too much for the party to do that.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Sean_F said:

    nichomar said:

    Actually I doubt there will be an election when you think a bit deeper. Why would the Tories take the risk, they can carry onas if nothing has happened until a number of them die or resign and they lose the subsequent by election. They will wait until things are looking better for them and may even keep May to avoide the pain of a leadership contest and claims of the new leaders lack of mandate.

    The Conservatives have no grounds for seeking another election.
    There is likely to be no choice, the government will collapse fairly quickly, and the electorate are unlikely to thank the Tories.

    It is 1974 revisited.
    Why would the government collapse fairly quickly? This looks more like October 1974 than February 1974 to me.
    It was the first one that led to the hung Parliament, and Heath tried initially to hang on as a minority government.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,039

    The Conservatives need to decide which is their priority out of hard Brexit and keeping Jeremy Corbyn out of power.

    To answer your question, it's achieving Brexit and keeping out Jeremy Corbyn.

    I would (reluctantly) sacrifice a full Brexit to maintain office and keep out Jeremy Corbyn. If the choice was no Brexit at all and keeping out Corbyn then I would surrender the keys because I think that would be a betrayal that would rip the Tories apart again in time anyway.

    My red line is leaving the customs union. I see absolutely no point in quitting the EU's political structures and staying in both the single market and customs union. EFTA feels about right.

    We have to be able to strike our own trade deals.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,776

    Sean_F said:

    nichomar said:

    Actually I doubt there will be an election when you think a bit deeper. Why would the Tories take the risk, they can carry onas if nothing has happened until a number of them die or resign and they lose the subsequent by election. They will wait until things are looking better for them and may even keep May to avoide the pain of a leadership contest and claims of the new leaders lack of mandate.

    The Conservatives have no grounds for seeking another election.
    There is likely to be no choice, the government will collapse fairly quickly, and the electorate are unlikely to thank the Tories.

    It is 1974 revisited.
    Why would the government collapse fairly quickly? This looks more like October 1974 than February 1974 to me.
    It was the first one that led to the hung Parliament, and Heath tried initially to hang on as a minority government.
    The Parliamentary arithmetic was quite different. Labour were ahead.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,756
    I assume that the BBC's insatiable appetite for a freak show will require the DUP to take over the UKIP seat on Question Time?

    Poor old Kippers, not even top of the fruitcake league now.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Sean_F said:

    nichomar said:

    Actually I doubt there will be an election when you think a bit deeper. Why would the Tories take the risk, they can carry onas if nothing has happened until a number of them die or resign and they lose the subsequent by election. They will wait until things are looking better for them and may even keep May to avoide the pain of a leadership contest and claims of the new leaders lack of mandate.

    The Conservatives have no grounds for seeking another election.
    There is likely to be no choice, the government will collapse fairly quickly, and the electorate are unlikely to thank the Tories.

    It is 1974 revisited.
    So are the Lib Dems going to collapse the Government
    No, but they will not support it. The LD manifesto was all about forming an opposition.

    When it comes to the vote of no confidence, have no doubt which way the LDs will go.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Sean_F said:

    nichomar said:

    Actually I doubt there will be an election when you think a bit deeper. Why would the Tories take the risk, they can carry onas if nothing has happened until a number of them die or resign and they lose the subsequent by election. They will wait until things are looking better for them and may even keep May to avoide the pain of a leadership contest and claims of the new leaders lack of mandate.

    The Conservatives have no grounds for seeking another election.
    There is likely to be no choice, the government will collapse fairly quickly, and the electorate are unlikely to thank the Tories.

    It is 1974 revisited.
    Why would the government collapse fairly quickly? This looks more like October 1974 than February 1974 to me.
    It was the first one that led to the hung Parliament, and Heath tried initially to hang on as a minority government.
    The Conservatives have enough votes and enough options to keep going a long time, at least until attrition sets in.

    The Conservatives only need to get one of the SNP, the Lib Dems and the DUP to abstain to have a majority. It's unlikely that all three will simultaneously want an election or a change of government.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,039
    To those who think a Labour majority is nailed on for GE2022, or wherever it occurs, can I please add you to the list of Tories who thought a large majority was nailed on only 4 days ago, and that they'd be in power until the 2040s only 6 weeks ago?

    A couple of obvious black swans: Corbyn isn't still leader in 5 years due to age or health, and UKIP rises again off the back of a Brexit betrayal that is pinned at Labour's door.

    There are others.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    Morning sexy PB'ers,

    Someone tell me Theresa The House Stealer has gone? :D
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    The Tory DUP coalition,FUKUP, represents only 43.3% of the total voteshare .A Jeremy Corbyn-led government of Labour,SNP,Greens and Plaid easily beats the 50% +1 barrier.He has the democratic validity to form a government.These parties produced 52.5% of the vote.
    A progressive alliance of government led by Labour should be given the chance to govern and Jez is ready to serve and fulfill his moral duty.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 1,919
    Charles said:

    RobD said:

    tlg86 said:

    Anecdote alert. Bloke up the pub last night told my dad he voted Labour for the first time in his life on Thursday. Why? He has six grandchildren and he think it's outrageous that they should be saddled with so much debt if they go to university. And the Scots get it for nothing.

    I'm still of the view that free tuition would be quite regressive.,. it'd be the poorer taxpayers paying for middle class/wealthy students to go to university. The current system is basically a graduate tax, and doesn't impact things like your credit rating.
    Would be better just to have that explicitly: graduates pay (for example - haven't done the maths), 1% extra on the base rate and 3% extra on the top rate as a "graduate premium"
    Probably: this is actually one benefit of leaving the EU. You get to charge non-UK students the going rate for a degree whilst charging your own citizens via a graduate tax. Currently the UK has to offer all EU students the same deal, which makes a graduate tax manifestly unfair.

    You could take the view that there are benefits to the country from bringing in outsiders which outweigh the costs - Germany seems to have taken this approach with it’s student funding - but I think this is only politically workable if students don’t have to pay fees directly at all & education is funded out of general taxation.
  • woody662woody662 Posts: 255
    They'll be no election for a long time. Labour have gone ahead and will stay there for a while. The only legislation will be budgets and Brexit, Let May complete Brexit and dump her. Spend 2 years coming up with some aspirational policies and destroy the Labour manifesto. Then go in 2019 with a new leader during their honeymoon and hope and pray the economy doesn't tank.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,039
    On topic, the optics might not be helpful but only the DUP give the Tories a stable majority. You can find plenty of Tories who said equally fruity things in the 1990s.

    I think about 80% of the objection is down to the fact they are keeping the Tories in office, which Corbynites are furious about. Conservatives anti-Mayites just want to stiff May and have her stand down asap.

    The Tories should ultimately get a new leader where they can turn to the LDs for liberal votes on social matter and the DUP for Brexit related matters, making it clear its a matter of maths. Not endorsement.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004

    Sean_F said:

    nichomar said:

    Actually I doubt there will be an election when you think a bit deeper. Why would the Tories take the risk, they can carry onas if nothing has happened until a number of them die or resign and they lose the subsequent by election. They will wait until things are looking better for them and may even keep May to avoide the pain of a leadership contest and claims of the new leaders lack of mandate.

    The Conservatives have no grounds for seeking another election.
    There is likely to be no choice, the government will collapse fairly quickly, and the electorate are unlikely to thank the Tories.

    It is 1974 revisited.
    So are the Lib Dems going to collapse the Government
    No, but they will not support it. The LD manifesto was all about forming an opposition.

    When it comes to the vote of no confidence, have no doubt which way the LDs will go.
    That does not equate with Vince Cable on the radio - abstain probably, actively vote against the queens speech and hand a pass to Corbyn I have my doubts
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    The Tory DUP coalition,FUKUP, represents only 43.3% of the total voteshare .A Jeremy Corbyn-led government of Labour,SNP,Greens and Plaid easily beats the 50% +1 barrier.He has the democratic validity to form a government.These parties produced 52.5% of the vote.
    A progressive alliance of government led by Labour should be given the chance to govern and Jez is ready to serve and fulfill his moral duty.

    If Labour had made any attempt to introduce proportional representation in their 13 years in government you might have a bit of a point. Democratic validity comes from the agreed system. On that basis Labour fell far short.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Sean_F said:

    nichomar said:

    Actually I doubt there will be an election when you think a bit deeper. Why would the Tories take the risk, they can carry onas if nothing has happened until a number of them die or resign and they lose the subsequent by election. They will wait until things are looking better for them and may even keep May to avoide the pain of a leadership contest and claims of the new leaders lack of mandate.

    The Conservatives have no grounds for seeking another election.
    There is likely to be no choice, the government will collapse fairly quickly, and the electorate are unlikely to thank the Tories.

    It is 1974 revisited.
    Why would the government collapse fairly quickly? This looks more like October 1974 than February 1974 to me.
    It was the first one that led to the hung Parliament, and Heath tried initially to hang on as a minority government.
    The Conservatives have enough votes and enough options to keep going a long time, at least until attrition sets in.

    The Conservatives only need to get one of the SNP, the Lib Dems and the DUP to abstain to have a majority. It's unlikely that all three will simultaneously want an election or a change of government.
    You are missing the obvious. May is the least able tactician in the party, no way is she capable of the listening and horsetrading needed.

    She may limp through the year, but not much longer. The next year is just going to get grimmer for her.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,039

    Stray thought: when is David Cameron's autobiography coming out?

    The original plan was in H1 2018.
    He might want to bring that forward.
    Well I have suggested it should be serialised in the papers the week before the Tory conference, but I think he cares too much for the party to do that.
    Good for him.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    Sean_F said:

    nichomar said:

    Actually I doubt there will be an election when you think a bit deeper. Why would the Tories take the risk, they can carry onas if nothing has happened until a number of them die or resign and they lose the subsequent by election. They will wait until things are looking better for them and may even keep May to avoide the pain of a leadership contest and claims of the new leaders lack of mandate.

    The Conservatives have no grounds for seeking another election.
    There is likely to be no choice, the government will collapse fairly quickly, and the electorate are unlikely to thank the Tories.

    It is 1974 revisited.
    Why would the government collapse fairly quickly? This looks more like October 1974 than February 1974 to me.
    It was the first one that led to the hung Parliament, and Heath tried initially to hang on as a minority government.
    The Conservatives have enough votes and enough options to keep going a long time, at least until attrition sets in.

    The Conservatives only need to get one of the SNP, the Lib Dems and the DUP to abstain to have a majority. It's unlikely that all three will simultaneously want an election or a change of government.
    You are missing the obvious. May is the least able tactician in the party, no way is she capable of the listening and horsetrading needed.

    She may limp through the year, but not much longer. The next year is just going to get grimmer for her.
    +1
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Sean_F said:

    nichomar said:

    Actually I doubt there will be an election when you think a bit deeper. Why would the Tories take the risk, they can carry onas if nothing has happened until a number of them die or resign and they lose the subsequent by election. They will wait until things are looking better for them and may even keep May to avoide the pain of a leadership contest and claims of the new leaders lack of mandate.

    The Conservatives have no grounds for seeking another election.
    There is likely to be no choice, the government will collapse fairly quickly, and the electorate are unlikely to thank the Tories.

    It is 1974 revisited.
    Why would the government collapse fairly quickly? This looks more like October 1974 than February 1974 to me.
    It was the first one that led to the hung Parliament, and Heath tried initially to hang on as a minority government.
    The Conservatives have enough votes and enough options to keep going a long time, at least until attrition sets in.

    The Conservatives only need to get one of the SNP, the Lib Dems and the DUP to abstain to have a majority. It's unlikely that all three will simultaneously want an election or a change of government.
    You are missing the obvious. May is the least able tactician in the party, no way is she capable of the listening and horsetrading needed.

    She may limp through the year, but not much longer. The next year is just going to get grimmer for her.
    May=/= the Conservatives.

    And as an early sceptic of her abilities, I think I can point out that she also has some talents which are currently being ignored by almost everyone.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,776

    The Tory DUP coalition,FUKUP, represents only 43.3% of the total voteshare .A Jeremy Corbyn-led government of Labour,SNP,Greens and Plaid easily beats the 50% +1 barrier.He has the democratic validity to form a government.These parties produced 52.5% of the vote.
    A progressive alliance of government led by Labour should be given the chance to govern and Jez is ready to serve and fulfill his moral duty.

    They got 45% and 302 seats. A four-party minority government won't work.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Sean_F said:

    nichomar said:

    Actually I doubt there will be an election when you think a bit deeper. Why would the Tories take the risk, they can carry onas if nothing has happened until a number of them die or resign and they lose the subsequent by election. They will wait until things are looking better for them and may even keep May to avoide the pain of a leadership contest and claims of the new leaders lack of mandate.

    The Conservatives have no grounds for seeking another election.
    There is likely to be no choice, the government will collapse fairly quickly, and the electorate are unlikely to thank the Tories.

    It is 1974 revisited.
    So are the Lib Dems going to collapse the Government
    No, but they will not support it. The LD manifesto was all about forming an opposition.

    When it comes to the vote of no confidence, have no doubt which way the LDs will go.
    That does not equate with Vince Cable on the radio - abstain probably, actively vote against the queens speech and hand a pass to Corbyn I have my doubts
    You are a Tory, as a Lib Dem I have no doubts about which way the party would vote.

    The way the Tories targetted the LDs ibn 2015 is going to make for sweet revenge. It is in the interest of the country of course to put the Tories out of our misery.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,548

    On topic, the optics might not be helpful but only the DUP give the Tories a stable majority. You can find plenty of Tories who said equally fruity things in the 1990s.

    I think about 80% of the objection is down to the fact they are keeping the Tories in office, which Corbynites are furious about. Conservatives anti-Mayites just want to stiff May and have her stand down asap.

    The Tories should ultimately get a new leader where they can turn to the LDs for liberal votes on social matter and the DUP for Brexit related matters, making it clear its a matter of maths. Not endorsement.

    The Tories who mucked things up in the 1990s were the insanely Europhobic 'Bastards'. It's interesting that the party's current troubles can be traced back to the same issue and even the same people.

    And no, the objection isn't down to pure party politics. It's down to the fact that the DUP - or even some segments of Conservative thought - don't match wider society. They've been left behind, but are still incredibly vocal.

    I talked to about a dozen people - normal people - about the election yesterday, and perhaps half of them mentioned the DUP (or the deal) negatively. That number can only increase with time.

    Every decision will be seen through the prism of deals with the DUP. It'll be a disaster.
  • ScarfNZScarfNZ Posts: 29
    I suspect May all along has been wanting to dump BREXIT because it will not work in the real world. May has no idea how to handle it and she wants to give the problem to Labour to sort. BREXIT is toxic and I suspect May is going to take down the whole of the Tory party while she tries to save her own skin. Not a bad thing!
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    Sean_F said:

    nichomar said:

    Actually I doubt there will be an election when you think a bit deeper. Why would the Tories take the risk, they can carry onas if nothing has happened until a number of them die or resign and they lose the subsequent by election. They will wait until things are looking better for them and may even keep May to avoide the pain of a leadership contest and claims of the new leaders lack of mandate.

    The Conservatives have no grounds for seeking another election.
    There is likely to be no choice, the government will collapse fairly quickly, and the electorate are unlikely to thank the Tories.

    It is 1974 revisited.
    Why would the government collapse fairly quickly? This looks more like October 1974 than February 1974 to me.
    It was the first one that led to the hung Parliament, and Heath tried initially to hang on as a minority government.
    The Conservatives have enough votes and enough options to keep going a long time, at least until attrition sets in.

    The Conservatives only need to get one of the SNP, the Lib Dems and the DUP to abstain to have a majority. It's unlikely that all three will simultaneously want an election or a change of government.
    You are missing the obvious. May is the least able tactician in the party, no way is she capable of the listening and horsetrading needed.

    She may limp through the year, but not much longer. The next year is just going to get grimmer for her.
    May=/= the Conservatives.

    And as an early sceptic of her abilities, I think I can point out that she also has some talents which are currently being ignored by almost everyone.
    Yes its just a smear campaign, but there ought to be no deal with the DUP..
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,098
    A quick scan of my mother's Sunday Telegraph confirms that the Conservative establishment is still in the denial phase of the change curve.

    Article after article from commentators trying to suggest that the election result means, and the solution to the crisis will be, more 'proper' Conservative policies (all the old canards, tax cuts, cutting foreign aid, etc etc), a harder Brexit, press on, keep digging, plus a couple of articles trying to double down on Project Fear about Corbyn, as if that is going to make any difference now.

    It is quite clear that the Tories aren't thinking straight or able to face reality right now. So I am guessing it is going to be some time before a direction from the governmenr is decided.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,039

    Sean_F said:

    nichomar said:

    Actually I doubt there will be an election when you think a bit deeper. Why would the Tories take the risk, they can carry onas if nothing has happened until a number of them die or resign and they lose the subsequent by election. They will wait until things are looking better for them and may even keep May to avoide the pain of a leadership contest and claims of the new leaders lack of mandate.

    The Conservatives have no grounds for seeking another election.
    There is likely to be no choice, the government will collapse fairly quickly, and the electorate are unlikely to thank the Tories.

    It is 1974 revisited.
    Why would the government collapse fairly quickly? This looks more like October 1974 than February 1974 to me.
    It was the first one that led to the hung Parliament, and Heath tried initially to hang on as a minority government.
    The Conservatives have enough votes and enough options to keep going a long time, at least until attrition sets in.

    The Conservatives only need to get one of the SNP, the Lib Dems and the DUP to abstain to have a majority. It's unlikely that all three will simultaneously want an election or a change of government.
    You are missing the obvious. May is the least able tactician in the party, no way is she capable of the listening and horsetrading needed.

    She may limp through the year, but not much longer. The next year is just going to get grimmer for her.
    May=/= the Conservatives.

    And as an early sceptic of her abilities, I think I can point out that she also has some talents which are currently being ignored by almost everyone.
    Such as?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,964
    edited June 2017



    I think about 80% of the objection is down to the fact they are keeping the Tories in office, which Corbynites are furious about.

    Yes. The fact that these are members of the UK Parliament, voted for by the people of Northern Ireland with as much validity to be there as Labour MPs for Canterbury and High Peak, that seems to pass them by.....

    And let's be honest folks, if cosying up to the DUP could get Corbyn into No. 10 Downing Street, they would have bunked up in an instant. Although it is hugely ironic that the reason they can't get them onboard is Corbyn's past - a past we keep being told did not play in this election....
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780
    The election just past was fought on a false premise. The premise was that May was going to get a substantial, even a huge majority. That made it ok (outside Scotland which had different priorities and a completely different campaign) not to vote Tory or to indulge yourself with a protest vote.

    Stable government was assured and it was therefore alright to show your reservations about that government and May in particular. The collapse of her leadership lead over the election period was remarkable, I don't recall anything like it.

    The next election will not be fought on such a premise. Labour are now close enough in terms of seats to be perfectly well placed to win an outright majority. I think that will focus minds and result in a critical assessment of the Labour manifesto in a way that did not happen in the last few months.

    But May is terminally wounded and must come to terms with that, no matter how painful it may be. The Tories need a leader who is placed to go to the polls when the need arises, possibly at short notice. She needs to go and she needs to go now. By that I mean that she goes to a caretaker role while the leadership election plays out. She will obviously remain in office until that is done.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,039
    IanB2 said:

    A quick scan of my mother's Sunday Telegraph confirms that the Conservative establishment is still in the denial phase of the change curve.

    Article after article from commentators trying to suggest that the election result means, and the solution to the crisis will be, more 'proper' Conservative policies (all the old canards, tax cuts, cutting foreign aid, etc etc), a harder Brexit, press on, keep digging, plus a couple of articles trying to double down on Project Fear about Corbyn, as if that is going to make any difference now.

    It is quite clear that the Tories aren't thinking straight or able to face reality right now. So I am guessing it is going to be some time before a direction from the governmenr is decided.

    I don't think so, actually. People like Rudd, Hammond, Barwell, Davidson and David Davis won't think like that.

    This Parliament is (for the Conservatives) about achieving Brexit, with something to show for it by GE2022, and getting the electorate to take a second much closer look at Jeremy Corbyn.

    A lot could happen.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,098

    The Tory DUP coalition,FUKUP, represents only 43.3% of the total voteshare .A Jeremy Corbyn-led government of Labour,SNP,Greens and Plaid easily beats the 50% +1 barrier.He has the democratic validity to form a government.These parties produced 52.5% of the vote.
    A progressive alliance of government led by Labour should be given the chance to govern and Jez is ready to serve and fulfill his moral duty.

    If Labour had made any attempt to introduce proportional representation in their 13 years in government you might have a bit of a point. Democratic validity comes from the agreed system. On that basis Labour fell far short.
    Yes, that remains their biggest mistake. And one they still seem unwilling to face, or amend.

    Once elected they will find their new support base isn't so reliable after all.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Sean_F said:

    nichomar said:

    Actually I doubt there will be an election when you think a bit deeper. Why would the Tories take the risk, they can carry onas if nothing has happened until a number of them die or resign and they lose the subsequent by election. They will wait until things are looking better for them and may even keep May to avoide the pain of a leadership contest and claims of the new leaders lack of mandate.

    The Conservatives have no grounds for seeking another election.
    There is likely to be no choice, the government will collapse fairly quickly, and the electorate are unlikely to thank the Tories.

    It is 1974 revisited.
    So are the Lib Dems going to collapse the Government
    No, but they will not support it. The LD manifesto was all about forming an opposition.

    When it comes to the vote of no confidence, have no doubt which way the LDs will go.
    That does not equate with Vince Cable on the radio - abstain probably, actively vote against the queens speech and hand a pass to Corbyn I have my doubts
    You are a Tory, as a Lib Dem I have no doubts about which way the party would vote.

    The way the Tories targetted the LDs ibn 2015 is going to make for sweet revenge. It is in the interest of the country of course to put the Tories out of our misery.
    You're a lib dem,lol,looking at your post before the GE result I thought you a corbynite loyalist.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,548
    DavidL said:

    The election just past was fought on a false premise. The premise was that May was going to get a substantial, even a huge majority. That made it ok (outside Scotland which had different priorities and a completely different campaign) not to vote Tory or to indulge yourself with a protest vote.

    Stable government was assured and it was therefore alright to show your reservations about that government and May in particular. The collapse of her leadership lead over the election period was remarkable, I don't recall anything like it.

    The next election will not be fought on such a premise. Labour are now close enough in terms of seats to be perfectly well placed to win an outright majority. I think that will focus minds and result in a critical assessment of the Labour manifesto in a way that did not happen in the last few months.

    But May is terminally wounded and must come to terms with that, no matter how painful it may be. The Tories need a leader who is placed to go to the polls when the need arises, possibly at short notice. She needs to go and she needs to go now. By that I mean that she goes to a caretaker role while the leadership election plays out. She will obviously remain in office until that is done.

    I fear you are being far to optimistic. I see no easy or quick way out of this mess for the Conservatives.
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185

    Sean_F said:

    nichomar said:

    Actually I doubt there will be an election when you think a bit deeper. Why would the Tories take the risk, they can carry onas if nothing has happened until a number of them die or resign and they lose the subsequent by election. They will wait until things are looking better for them and may even keep May to avoide the pain of a leadership contest and claims of the new leaders lack of mandate.

    The Conservatives have no grounds for seeking another election.
    There is likely to be no choice, the government will collapse fairly quickly, and the electorate are unlikely to thank the Tories.

    It is 1974 revisited.
    Why would the government collapse fairly quickly? This looks more like October 1974 than February 1974 to me.
    It was the first one that led to the hung Parliament, and Heath tried initially to hang on as a minority government.
    The Conservatives have enough votes and enough options to keep going a long time, at least until attrition sets in.

    The Conservatives only need to get one of the SNP, the Lib Dems and the DUP to abstain to have a majority. It's unlikely that all three will simultaneously want an election or a change of government.
    You are missing the obvious. May is the least able tactician in the party, no way is she capable of the listening and horsetrading needed.

    She may limp through the year, but not much longer. The next year is just going to get grimmer for her.
    May=/= the Conservatives.

    And as an early sceptic of her abilities, I think I can point out that she also has some talents which are currently being ignored by almost everyone.
    My own mistake with my view on May was that she was aware of how she got the job and what her role was, she got the job by being last man standing and her role was to help the government/party along until the next election and then retire gracefully.
    She thought she was hot shit and should rule in her own right for at least one full term.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,192

    tlg86 said:

    Anecdote alert. Bloke up the pub last night told my dad he voted Labour for the first time in his life on Thursday. Why? He has six grandchildren and he think it's outrageous that they should be saddled with so much debt if they go to university. And the Scots get it for nothing.

    Anecdote alert: I met a fair few people yesterday whilst out and about, and I tried bringing up the subject of the election in as open a way as possible.

    One young shop assistant said: "It's terrible the way they slandered Corbyn."

    She was probably born after the end of the troubles. If many people feel that way, then it'll explain why the Conservative attacks didn't work.
    I said on here before the election that shouting IRA at Corbyn would not resonate with anyone under 35. What a shame for the Tories that the eagerness of the BBC to join the bully-in meant every formal TV appearance focused almost exclusively on nuclear/terrorism issues and not on his plans for the economy. Big turn-off for many who saw:

    The IRA issue as arcane and misrepresented
    The nuclear issue as depressing - if *anyone* presses any button we're probably all finished anyway

    What's more, many of my friends were shocked to hear that our policy on nuclear seemed to have evolved from deterrent to first strike. When did that happen?

    Labour must now put some flesh on the bones of explaining Keynesianism to the people. That is the necessary preparation for the next election. To explain clearly how the Government budget does not operate like a household budget.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    What a popular bunch they are... (NOT)

    Time to look to the back benches?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004

    Sean_F said:

    nichomar said:

    Actually I doubt there will be an election when you think a bit deeper. Why would the Tories take the risk, they can carry onas if nothing has happened until a number of them die or resign and they lose the subsequent by election. They will wait until things are looking better for them and may even keep May to avoide the pain of a leadership contest and claims of the new leaders lack of mandate.

    The Conservatives have no grounds for seeking another election.
    There is likely to be no choice, the government will collapse fairly quickly, and the electorate are unlikely to thank the Tories.

    It is 1974 revisited.
    So are the Lib Dems going to collapse the Government
    No, but they will not support it. The LD manifesto was all about forming an opposition.

    When it comes to the vote of no confidence, have no doubt which way the LDs will go.
    That does not equate with Vince Cable on the radio - abstain probably, actively vote against the queens speech and hand a pass to Corbyn I have my doubts
    You are a Tory, as a Lib Dem I have no doubts about which way the party would vote.

    The way the Tories targetted the LDs ibn 2015 is going to make for sweet revenge. It is in the interest of the country of course to put the Tories out of our misery.
    You're a lib dem,lol,looking at your post before the GE result I thought you a corbynite loyalist.
    Agreed
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Sean_F said:

    The Tory DUP coalition,FUKUP, represents only 43.3% of the total voteshare .A Jeremy Corbyn-led government of Labour,SNP,Greens and Plaid easily beats the 50% +1 barrier.He has the democratic validity to form a government.These parties produced 52.5% of the vote.
    A progressive alliance of government led by Labour should be given the chance to govern and Jez is ready to serve and fulfill his moral duty.

    They got 45% and 302 seats. A four-party minority government won't work.
    Forget seats,it is the proportion of the vote that counts for the verification of democratic validity.Labour has every right to govern to save this country from May's coalition of chaos.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    GIN1138 said:

    Morning sexy PB'ers

    The CCCC now insist such comments are inappropriate on a Sunday. Indeed we may have to close down PB on the Sabbath in Northern Ireland - Poor @Y0kel

    Otherwise Mike Smithson would be prosecuted under the upcoming new Protection of Ulster From Poofters, Wimmin And Fornication On The Internet (Sunday) Act 2017.

  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185

    Sean_F said:

    The Tory DUP coalition,FUKUP, represents only 43.3% of the total voteshare .A Jeremy Corbyn-led government of Labour,SNP,Greens and Plaid easily beats the 50% +1 barrier.He has the democratic validity to form a government.These parties produced 52.5% of the vote.
    A progressive alliance of government led by Labour should be given the chance to govern and Jez is ready to serve and fulfill his moral duty.

    They got 45% and 302 seats. A four-party minority government won't work.
    Forget seats,it is the proportion of the vote that counts for the verification of democratic validity.Labour has every right to govern to save this country from May's coalition of chaos.
    Not under FPTP it doesn't.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004

    Sean_F said:

    The Tory DUP coalition,FUKUP, represents only 43.3% of the total voteshare .A Jeremy Corbyn-led government of Labour,SNP,Greens and Plaid easily beats the 50% +1 barrier.He has the democratic validity to form a government.These parties produced 52.5% of the vote.
    A progressive alliance of government led by Labour should be given the chance to govern and Jez is ready to serve and fulfill his moral duty.

    They got 45% and 302 seats. A four-party minority government won't work.
    Forget seats,it is the proportion of the vote that counts for the verification of democratic validity.Labour has every right to govern to save this country from May's coalition of chaos.
    Only if they can get a majority in the HOC
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited June 2017

    On topic, the optics might not be helpful but only the DUP give the Tories a stable majority. You can find plenty of Tories who said equally fruity things in the 1990s.

    I think about 80% of the objection is down to the fact they are keeping the Tories in office, which Corbynites are furious about. Conservatives anti-Mayites just want to stiff May and have her stand down asap.

    The Tories should ultimately get a new leader where they can turn to the LDs for liberal votes on social matter and the DUP for Brexit related matters, making it clear its a matter of maths. Not endorsement.

    The Tories who mucked things up in the 1990s were the insanely Europhobic 'Bastards'. It's interesting that the party's current troubles can be traced back to the same issue and even the same people.

    And no, the objection isn't down to pure party politics. It's down to the fact that the DUP - or even some segments of Conservative thought - don't match wider society. They've been left behind, but are still incredibly vocal.

    I talked to about a dozen people - normal people - about the election yesterday, and perhaps half of them mentioned the DUP (or the deal) negatively. That number can only increase with time.

    Every decision will be seen through the prism of deals with the DUP. It'll be a disaster.
    Exactly. As I've stated before, I have no issue with the Conservatives forming the next government. Jeremy Corbyn cannot hope to lead any kind of stable government with only 262 MPs, and I say this as someone who is back in Labour fold. Furthermore, the kind of protracted deal-making that would be required in order to sustain government with other centre-left parties would just lead to chaos. Given how the SNP lost ground on June 8th, and the success of the unionist parties in Scotland, a situation where Labour may have to give concessions to Nicola Sturgeon would be ridiculous.

    But nonetheless, I vehemently oppose this deal with the DUP, and was worried yesterday that May was actually going into coalition with them. My concern with the DUP is their views on social issues - a deal with the DUP would mean May is beholden to people with those kinds of views on social issues.

    Much better for May to run a minority government and engage with other parties when it comes to passing legislation.
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    calum said:
    I so minority rule, or offer the opposition a chance to form a government and get a new leader.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    F1: just seen Ladbrokes has some group betting markets. Intriguing...
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    GIN1138 said:

    What a popular bunch they are... (NOT)

    Time to look to the back benches?
    In most of those cases, it looks like the answer was not good leader or bad, but who? Only Boris and Gove got above 50% response rates.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,922
    Alistair said:
    Good to see she's on the road to recovery.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,098
    HaroldO said:

    Sean_F said:

    nichomar said:

    Actually I doubt there will be an election when you think a bit deeper. Why would the Tories take the risk, they can carry onas if nothing has happened until a number of them die or resign and they lose the subsequent by election. They will wait until things are looking better for them and may even keep May to avoide the pain of a leadership contest and claims of the new leaders lack of mandate.

    The Conservatives have no grounds for seeking another election.
    There is likely to be no choice, the government will collapse fairly quickly, and the electorate are unlikely to thank the Tories.

    It is 1974 revisited.
    Why would the government collapse fairly quickly? This looks more like October 1974 than February 1974 to me.
    It was the first one that led to the hung Parliament, and Heath tried initially to hang on as a minority government.
    The Conservatives have enough votes and enough options to keep going a long time, at least until attrition sets in.

    The Conservatives only need to get one of the SNP, the Lib Dems and the DUP to abstain to have a majority. It's unlikely that all three will simultaneously want an election or a change of government.
    You are missing the obvious. May is the least able tactician in the party, no way is she capable of the listening and horsetrading needed.

    She may limp through the year, but not much longer. The next year is just going to get grimmer for her.
    May=/= the Conservatives.

    And as an early sceptic of her abilities, I think I can point out that she also has some talents which are currently being ignored by almost everyone.
    My own mistake with my view on May was that she was aware of how she got the job and what her role was, she got the job by being last man standing and her role was to help the government/party along until the next election and then retire gracefully.
    She thought she was hot shit and should rule in her own right for at least one full term.
    She had been dreaming about it since she was a kid and planning how to achieve it since she left school. So an easy mistake to make. Cf. one Mr G Brown.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    woody662 said:

    They'll be no election for a long time. Labour have gone ahead and will stay there for a while. The only legislation will be budgets and Brexit, Let May complete Brexit and dump her. Spend 2 years coming up with some aspirational policies and destroy the Labour manifesto. Then go in 2019 with a new leader during their honeymoon and hope and pray the economy doesn't tank.

    So another general election called solely in the interests of the Conservative party .... that went well three days ago.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,922
    Hezza on R4 now!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780

    DavidL said:

    The election just past was fought on a false premise. The premise was that May was going to get a substantial, even a huge majority. That made it ok (outside Scotland which had different priorities and a completely different campaign) not to vote Tory or to indulge yourself with a protest vote.

    Stable government was assured and it was therefore alright to show your reservations about that government and May in particular. The collapse of her leadership lead over the election period was remarkable, I don't recall anything like it.

    The next election will not be fought on such a premise. Labour are now close enough in terms of seats to be perfectly well placed to win an outright majority. I think that will focus minds and result in a critical assessment of the Labour manifesto in a way that did not happen in the last few months.

    But May is terminally wounded and must come to terms with that, no matter how painful it may be. The Tories need a leader who is placed to go to the polls when the need arises, possibly at short notice. She needs to go and she needs to go now. By that I mean that she goes to a caretaker role while the leadership election plays out. She will obviously remain in office until that is done.

    I fear you are being far to optimistic. I see no easy or quick way out of this mess for the Conservatives.
    I am not saying it will be easy. It is entirely possible, indeed likely at this point that Labour will win the next election. That is up to the British people.

    What I am saying is that this is the only road available and the first step down that road is the removal of May.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited June 2017
    Alistair said:
    :lol:

    Tories have made a right mess of things.
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    IanB2 said:

    HaroldO said:

    Sean_F said:

    nichomar said:

    Actually I doubt there will be an election when you think a bit deeper. Why would the Tories take the risk, they can carry onas if nothing has happened until a number of them die or resign and they lose the subsequent by election. They will wait until things are looking better for them and may even keep May to avoide the pain of a leadership contest and claims of the new leaders lack of mandate.

    The Conservatives have no grounds for seeking another election.
    There is likely to be no choice, the government will collapse fairly quickly, and the electorate are unlikely to thank the Tories.

    It is 1974 revisited.
    Why would the government collapse fairly quickly? This looks more like October 1974 than February 1974 to me.
    It was the first one that led to the hung Parliament, and Heath tried initially to hang on as a minority government.
    The Conservatives have enough votes and enough options to keep going a long time, at least until attrition sets in.

    The Conservatives only need to get one of the SNP, the Lib Dems and the DUP to abstain to have a majority. It's unlikely that all three will simultaneously want an election or a change of government.
    You are missing the obvious. May is the least able tactician in the party, no way is she capable of the listening and horsetrading needed.

    She may limp through the year, but not much longer. The next year is just going to get grimmer for her.
    May=/= the Conservatives.

    And as an early sceptic of her abilities, I think I can point out that she also has some talents which are currently being ignored by almost everyone.
    My own mistake with my view on May was that she was aware of how she got the job and what her role was, she got the job by being last man standing and her role was to help the government/party along until the next election and then retire gracefully.
    She thought she was hot shit and should rule in her own right for at least one full term.
    She had been dreaming about it since she was a kid and planning how to achieve it since she left school. So an easy mistake to make. Cf. one Mr G Brown.
    I think that after such a self aware leader as Cameron (yes he was arrogant and brash, but he knew it) I expected May to be the same. Not so much.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Alistair said:
    Labour,snp,lib dems and greens cobbled together would be coalition of chaos,would'nt it ?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Maybe it's a cunning trap and she'll be arrested for the Cash for Ash scandal?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    Alistair said:
    :lol:

    Tories have made a right mess of things.
    Remind me how Jezza would form a government?
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    Wonder where the DUP will sit?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,776

    Sean_F said:

    The Tory DUP coalition,FUKUP, represents only 43.3% of the total voteshare .A Jeremy Corbyn-led government of Labour,SNP,Greens and Plaid easily beats the 50% +1 barrier.He has the democratic validity to form a government.These parties produced 52.5% of the vote.
    A progressive alliance of government led by Labour should be given the chance to govern and Jez is ready to serve and fulfill his moral duty.

    They got 45% and 302 seats. A four-party minority government won't work.
    Forget seats,it is the proportion of the vote that counts for the verification of democratic validity.Labour has every right to govern to save this country from May's coalition of chaos.
    It's bums on seats that count. And by any metric, votes, or seats, the Conservatives outperformed Labour.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780
    Alistair said:
    She's still really struggling with numbers isn't she?
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238

    How many people on here actually support May's position wrt the DUP?

    Full steam ahead, I say. What could possibly go wrong?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    Polly Toynbee trashing George Osborne - embarrassing
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238

    In a few short weeks May's undone the twelve years of work Cameron, Osborne and co. did to detoxify the party.

    It's incredible.

    I hated George Osborne, Cameron and Clegg when they were in government.
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185

    Alistair said:
    Labour,snp,lib dems and greens cobbled together would be coalition of chaos,would'nt it ?
    It doesn't matter what the reality is, it's all about the image currently. Corbyn has gone full populist.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    DavidL said:

    The election just past was fought on a false premise. The premise was that May was going to get a substantial, even a huge majority. That made it ok (outside Scotland which had different priorities and a completely different campaign) not to vote Tory or to indulge yourself with a protest vote.

    Stable government was assured and it was therefore alright to show your reservations about that government and May in particular. The collapse of her leadership lead over the election period was remarkable, I don't recall anything like it.

    The next election will not be fought on such a premise. Labour are now close enough in terms of seats to be perfectly well placed to win an outright majority. I think that will focus minds and result in a critical assessment of the Labour manifesto in a way that did not happen in the last few months.

    But May is terminally wounded and must come to terms with that, no matter how painful it may be. The Tories need a leader who is placed to go to the polls when the need arises, possibly at short notice. She needs to go and she needs to go now. By that I mean that she goes to a caretaker role while the leadership election plays out. She will obviously remain in office until that is done.

    The Conservatives seem intent on alienating the voters that did cross over and help prevent Corbyn, I wouldn't be so sure they will do so again. This is only going one way. With the appointment of Barwell it seems pretty clear that was the plan all along.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387

    Alistair said:
    Labour,snp,lib dems and greens cobbled together would be coalition of chaos,would'nt it ?
    and it wouuld still short of a majority.

    Whatever the DUP think of May they'd vote down a Corbyn Queen's speech...!
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited June 2017
    Mortimer said:

    Alistair said:
    :lol:

    Tories have made a right mess of things.
    Remind me how Jezza would form a government?
    I don't know how you've even read that into my post. I'm not endorsing Jeremy Corbyn forming a government with these numbers - I pretty much outlined that stance in my previous post.

    I'm laughing at Diane's tweet and observing the fact that she can say that demonstrates how the Tories have made a mess of things, which they have.
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    JackW said:

    woody662 said:

    They'll be no election for a long time. Labour have gone ahead and will stay there for a while. The only legislation will be budgets and Brexit, Let May complete Brexit and dump her. Spend 2 years coming up with some aspirational policies and destroy the Labour manifesto. Then go in 2019 with a new leader during their honeymoon and hope and pray the economy doesn't tank.

    So another general election called solely in the interests of the Conservative party .... that went well three days ago.
    Historically all GEs have been called in the interest of the Party calling it, or not calling it in the case of G Brown.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,098
    Mortimer said:

    Alistair said:
    :lol:

    Tories have made a right mess of things.
    Remind me how Jezza would form a government?
    Any government only has to get its QS and Supply through, and avoid a FTPA defeat (which is a high bar). As in the 1970s, losing other stuff makes them look bad but isn't necessarily fatal.

    Circumstances in which sufficient MPs are prepared to abstain to allow a Corbyn QS through aren't completely inconceivable, although I agree unlikely.

    Labour's biggest problem is that, whilst the election has revealed Corbyn's talent as a campaigner, life in a balanced parliament is likely to reveal his shortcomings as a party manager and political tactician.
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185

    Polly Toynbee trashing George Osborne - embarrassing

    In the Grauniad?
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Alistair said:
    :lol:

    Tories have made a right mess of things.
    Yep and it looks in the future we will be having a corbyn government.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    HaroldO said:

    Polly Toynbee trashing George Osborne - embarrassing

    In the Grauniad?
    On Marr
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    calum said:

    Wonder where the DUP will sit?

    They will probably cover the green benches with newspaper before they sit down on them.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185

    HaroldO said:

    Polly Toynbee trashing George Osborne - embarrassing

    In the Grauniad?
    On Marr
    Ok, well I'm not up to seeing he blathering nonsense on TV so I will have to conclude she has lost her mind attacking someone who didn't even stand in the election.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 1,919

    DavidL said:

    The election just past was fought on a false premise. The premise was that May was going to get a substantial, even a huge majority. That made it ok (outside Scotland which had different priorities and a completely different campaign) not to vote Tory or to indulge yourself with a protest vote.

    Stable government was assured and it was therefore alright to show your reservations about that government and May in particular. The collapse of her leadership lead over the election period was remarkable, I don't recall anything like it.

    The next election will not be fought on such a premise. Labour are now close enough in terms of seats to be perfectly well placed to win an outright majority. I think that will focus minds and result in a critical assessment of the Labour manifesto in a way that did not happen in the last few months.

    But May is terminally wounded and must come to terms with that, no matter how painful it may be. The Tories need a leader who is placed to go to the polls when the need arises, possibly at short notice. She needs to go and she needs to go now. By that I mean that she goes to a caretaker role while the leadership election plays out. She will obviously remain in office until that is done.

    I fear you are being far to optimistic. I see no easy or quick way out of this mess for the Conservatives.
    Given the current performance of the Tory leadership, the electorate - who rightly value competence - might well decide that a functioning Labour government is better than this shower, whatever they think of their policies. If I was a Tory MP I wouldn’t be feeling very confident about winning a second GE this year at all.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,039

    Sean_F said:

    The Tory DUP coalition,FUKUP, represents only 43.3% of the total voteshare .A Jeremy Corbyn-led government of Labour,SNP,Greens and Plaid easily beats the 50% +1 barrier.He has the democratic validity to form a government.These parties produced 52.5% of the vote.
    A progressive alliance of government led by Labour should be given the chance to govern and Jez is ready to serve and fulfill his moral duty.

    They got 45% and 302 seats. A four-party minority government won't work.
    Forget seats,it is the proportion of the vote that counts for the verification of democratic validity.Labour has every right to govern to save this country from May's coalition of chaos.
    Translation: you don't like the election outcome.
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806

    tlg86 said:

    Anecdote alert. Bloke up the pub last night told my dad he voted Labour for the first time in his life on Thursday. Why? He has six grandchildren and he think it's outrageous that they should be saddled with so much debt if they go to university. And the Scots get it for nothing.

    Anecdote alert: I met a fair few people yesterday whilst out and about, and I tried bringing up the subject of the election in as open a way as possible.

    One young shop assistant said: "It's terrible the way they slandered Corbyn."

    She was probably born after the end of the troubles. If many people feel that way, then it'll explain why the Conservative attacks didn't work.
    I said on here before the election that shouting IRA at Corbyn would not resonate with anyone under 35. What a shame for the Tories that the eagerness of the BBC to join the bully-in meant every formal TV appearance focused almost exclusively on nuclear/terrorism issues and not on his plans for the economy. Big turn-off for many who saw:

    The IRA issue as arcane and misrepresented
    The nuclear issue as depressing - if *anyone* presses any button we're probably all finished anyway

    What's more, many of my friends were shocked to hear that our policy on nuclear seemed to have evolved from deterrent to first strike. When did that happen?

    Labour must now put some flesh on the bones of explaining Keynesianism to the people. That is the necessary preparation for the next election. To explain clearly how the Government budget does not operate like a household budget.
    Labour could give the example of Venezuela. Ken Livingston did. Socialism always fails.

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,968
    tlg86 said:

    Anecdote alert. Bloke up the pub last night told my dad he voted Labour for the first time in his life on Thursday. Why? He has six grandchildren and he think it's outrageous that they should be saddled with so much debt if they go to university. And the Scots get it for nothing.

    Not surprised.

    Osborne's increase of student tuition fees is the biggest tax rise people have ever experienced.

    It lost the LibDems 40 MPs in 2015 and it lost the Conservatives 40 MPs in 2017.

    I did warn people.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    Scott_P said:
    Absolutely
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979

    To those who think a Labour majority is nailed on for GE2022, or wherever it occurs, can I please add you to the list of Tories who thought a large majority was nailed on only 4 days ago, and that they'd be in power until the 2040s only 6 weeks ago?

    A couple of obvious black swans: Corbyn isn't still leader in 5 years due to age or health, and UKIP rises again off the back of a Brexit betrayal that is pinned at Labour's door.

    There are others.

    UKIP rising again will cripple the Tories. UKIP collapsing is what gave the Tories at least a 7% share boost this time.

    It will be funny if the Tories start hoping that Corbyn departs as Labour leader!
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046

    calum said:

    Wonder where the DUP will sit?

    They will probably cover the green benches with newspaper before they sit down on them.
    Or Orange blankets !
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    If the headbangers want Brexit now, their best move would be to collapse the Government, and let Corbyn take over.

    He will completely screw it up, and they could sweep back to power on a mandate to fix it
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780
    Let's just fantasise for a moment that the DUP were willing to go so far as to abstain rather than vote against the friend of the IRA.

    Labour have at best 262 +35 (SNP)+12 (LD)+4 (PC)+1(G) = 314.

    Labour can only form a government if the DUP are a part of that government and even then it would technically be a minority government. And at that point my capacity for fantasy simply fails.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    IanB2 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Alistair said:
    :lol:

    Tories have made a right mess of things.
    Remind me how Jezza would form a government?
    Any government only has to get its QS and Supply through, and avoid a FTPA defeat (which is a high bar). As in the 1970s, losing other stuff makes them look bad but isn't necessarily fatal.

    Circumstances in which sufficient MPs are prepared to abstain to allow a Corbyn QS through aren't completely inconceivable, although I agree unlikely.

    Labour's biggest problem is that, whilst the election has revealed Corbyn's talent as a campaigner, life in a balanced parliament is likely to reveal his shortcomings as a party manager and political tactician.
    To get a QS through Labour either need the Tories to abstain or they need the DUP to actively support them. Of course both are possible but I would suggest very unlikely.

    But TSE is right about the DUP and May

    The country is already screwed by this election. The only way it can be saved is with a new Tory leader and another election. I kind of think that is inevitable now.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,548

    In a few short weeks May's undone the twelve years of work Cameron, Osborne and co. did to detoxify the party.

    It's incredible.

    I hated George Osborne, Cameron and Clegg when they were in government.
    Why did you 'hate' (*) them? And do you still hold that view?

    'Hate' being a rather strong emotion. I can understand dislike, think they were idiots/wrong for the country/in it for themselves/etc, but hate?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    Scott_P said:
    Airbus said this before the referendum. Remind me how that worked out?
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    What a selection!

    On the bright side .... Ruth Davidson as leader would sort out the DUP issue. There is no spoon long enough to sup with the DUP
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,547
    edited June 2017
    Your Theresa May mug is still available at the Conservative Party online shop Worth every penny of £15

    image

    ...Actually there isn't a single true word about Theresa May in that slogan: Strong, Stable, Leadership, In the National Interest.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,968

    IanB2 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Alistair said:
    :lol:

    Tories have made a right mess of things.
    Remind me how Jezza would form a government?
    Any government only has to get its QS and Supply through, and avoid a FTPA defeat (which is a high bar). As in the 1970s, losing other stuff makes them look bad but isn't necessarily fatal.

    Circumstances in which sufficient MPs are prepared to abstain to allow a Corbyn QS through aren't completely inconceivable, although I agree unlikely.

    Labour's biggest problem is that, whilst the election has revealed Corbyn's talent as a campaigner, life in a balanced parliament is likely to reveal his shortcomings as a party manager and political tactician.
    To get a QS through Labour either need the Tories to abstain or they need the DUP to actively support them. Of course both are possible but I would suggest very unlikely.

    But TSE is right about the DUP and May

    The country is already screwed by this election. The only way it can be saved is with a new Tory leader and another election. I kind of think that is inevitable now.
    Indeed.
This discussion has been closed.