It seems we can conclude that anecdata was very revealing if only on a very local level @Alice Aforethought, @isam, @valleyboy, and of course @David Herdson (no doubt others, too) were accurately telling us what was happening in their area, from very different political standpoints.For myself, I pointed out the large numbers of Labour activists/enthusiasm in ultra-safe Hexham and the total absence of any Tory campaign. I dismissed this as a feature of a local Party stung by Local election defeat getting off it's arse. There was a 3.9% swing to Labour here. The problem was wildly differing swings in different places. Maybe we need an interpretist study, with a correspondent in each constituency?
I'm not going to say I predicted the scale of the result, because I didn't, but I did post on numerous occasions that the popular logic of adding the 2015 Conservative and UKIP votes was a fools errand in Northern constituencies. As I recall Dixie you are a Wiganer and would doubtless concur that in South Lancs, the "never Tory" mantra still holds strong. Electoral calculus was oblivious to this.
Is it? I don't see any comments which seem to be very relevant at all, except possibly one about accesses for the emergency services being blocked (I don't know if that was a factor in the tragedy). But maybe I've missed something - can you point to the warnings about the cladding or holes in the fire-protection screens between floors following the renovation work, which seem to be the two main areas which the experts are saying need investigation?
That cnut Corbyn is trying to make hay out of the west London fire. Unbelievable. Give it a day or two FFS. What a despicable little man.
I said this morning that this fire was going to be terrible for the government.
This is what happens when a government becomes unpopular, everything that goes wrong is layed at the door of said government whether it's fair or not. It literally becomes a feeding frenzy.
A government doesn't die in one go... It is slowly destroyed by the media and the populace one crisis at a time. There will be many more situations like this (though hopefully not with this level of human suffering) in the coming months and years until eventually the Tories are swept out of power and Corbyn is PM.
I didn't bet a lot on the election. My initial (and biggest) bet was to sell - at the maximum amount allowed - the LDs on the seat markets at 33 when the election was first called.
After that, I made a small (and dumb) error, buying Conservative seats at 368. Fortunately, SpreadEx limited me to £2/seat, and SPIN wouldn't take my money at all.
I did take some money from those who thought the LibDems were in with a shout in Vauxhall. (Disclaimer: they weren't.) And I lost a tiny amount on Argyll & Bute (which I still need to pay).
My big call was that the LDs would do better in seat terms than people thought. On the day of the election I called 12 seats. (Someone joked that I'd made that prediction in 2015, and was just hoping it would be right this time around.) However, full disclosure, is that I thought the LDs would take 12 seats on a c. 10% vote share. I correctly predicted tactical voting would return, but I did not expect the LDs would go backwards in national vote share.
Of course, I like to think that I've been broadly right (and counter PB-consensus) on the LDs three elections in a row: 2015, 2016 Holyrood, and now 2017. Given that, I will make no more LD forecasts so as to ensure my record remains unsullied.
I really need to thank you.
Your prediction of certain Labour defeats in Cambridge and Hampstead may have helped me get 5/1 on Labour.
I would like to feel rather proud that after carefully analysing the demographics I discovered that Labour to hold Westminster N at 7/2 was incredible value.
But as the swing in Westminster North was similar to that in nearby seats I'm not sure my analysis had any merit after all.
Snap. Westminster north at 7/2 was one of the two explicit tips I posted on here (as opposed to just reporting things I'd backed). My con majority of 92 prediction was garbage but I was so uncertain I never bet on those markets. Most of my bets were lab holds and gains that I think would have mostly come in even with a con majority of 92. I had about 50 constituency bets. First 20 were probs 18 con 2 lab. Last 30 more like 27 lab 3 con.
Don't forget the Tory vote went up by 6%. It's not perhaps surprising if Conservative activists were blindsided. And Labour activists might have assumed that any signs they were picking up would have been offset by disaster elsewhere.
True - a good friend of mine who was a Tory agent and activist didn't see it coming at all. the day of the election he was mildly confident of winning the marginal, but they ended up losing by 5,000. In fact he said he was now questioning the Tory canvassing software, as he had a almost 100% hit rate of knocking up Tories and wondered if the software was not targeting persuadable voters
[Fwiw he thought the manifesto was dire and that May was not helpful)
I suspect canvassing only really works for those that will stay with you and those that are likely to switch. It doesn't work well when both you and your closest opponent increase your votes
Don't forget the Tory vote went up by 6%. It's not perhaps surprising if Conservative activists were blindsided. And Labour activists might have assumed that any signs they were picking up would have been offset by disaster elsewhere.
True - a good friend of mine who was a Tory agent and activist didn't see it coming at all. the day of the election he was mildly confident of winning the marginal, but they ended up losing by 5,000. In fact he said he was now questioning the Tory canvassing software, as he had a almost 100% hit rate of knocking up Tories and wondered if the software was not targeting persuadable voters
[Fwiw he thought the manifesto was dire and that May was not helpful)
The explanation surely is that the Tory canvassing of their own supporters was fine, but Labour did even better (probably to their own surprise).
Perhaps. He did say they hit their internal targets for contacts etc. Does point to a flaw in the process though - interested in other canvassers views - does focused canvassing really only tell you about your own vote, and not pick up surge in your opponents ?
Is it? I don't see any comments which seem to be very relevant at all, except possibly one about accesses for the emergency services being blocked (I don't know if that was a factor in the tragedy). But maybe I've missed something - can you point to the warnings about the cladding or holes in the fire-protection screens between floors following the renovation work, which seem to be the two main areas which the experts are saying need investigation?
"Anyone who witnessed the recent tower block fire at Shepherds Court, in nearby Shepherd’s Bush, will know that the advice to remain in our properties would have led to certain fatalities and we are calling on our landlord to re-consider the advice that they have so badly circulated."
The BBC have been relishing every single moment of the day. They just love to find themselves at the heart of a crisis - giving their friends plenty of airtime.
Victoria Derbyshire this morning was simply appalling. Full of emotive language and opinion-giving, very little news reporting.
I don't know his name but on the 6 o'clock news there was a guy shoving his mic in the face or some very distressed people who had missing and very likely dead relatives. It was quite unnecessary and intrusive.
"Anyone who witnessed the recent tower block fire at Shepherds Court, in nearby Shepherd’s Bush, will know that the advice to remain in our properties would have led to certain fatalities and we are calling on our landlord to re-consider the advice that they have so badly circulated."
This is why I'm quite relaxed about the election result. Labour are stuck with Corbyn and McDonnell and they are poison, they will do more harm than good to the Labour Party in the long term.
You think? I don't. Look how fast the supposed Labour moderates have been on here to row back on the anti-Corbyn rhetoric.
A significant portion of the electorate doesn't care if the LotO supports terrorist murderers, as long as he gives them other people's money.
I think a number of Labour MPs may be wondering if they didn't get a bit carried away in their professions of new found admiration and loyalty too Corbyn. It is rewriting history to say that their only objection to him was their doubting of his electoral appeal - there was plenty of evidence of his incapability as a leader which one successful campaign can't eradicate.
Is it? I don't see any comments which seem to be very relevant at all, except possibly one about accesses for the emergency services being blocked (I don't know if that was a factor in the tragedy). But maybe I've missed something - can you point to the warnings about the cladding or holes in the fire-protection screens between floors following the renovation work, which seem to be the two main areas which the experts are saying need investigation?
I have been trying to find out more about the Grenfell Action Group - and have found it very difficult to track down much about those running it.
Thus it is hard to assess their qualifications to assess fire risk.
I am not denying that a proper investigation needs to be undertaken - but it is not good journalism to rely on one blog so heavily.
I posted a similar comment before the election and I will do so again:
"If you didn't have any polls or pundits showing Tories were well ahead and you just looked at the campaigns you would think May was going to lose her majority".
Articles like this usually turn out to be wrong. We were told a couple of years ago that the Tories couldn't possibly lose because of the same group of voters.
Incidentally, Emily Thornberry walked past me this evening at about 7pm outside Kings Cross station.
I've been in Rome since last Wednesday, with my Corbynista girlfriend.
Has there been any news?
- Hung Parliament (Cons 318, Labour 262, LD 12, SNP 35, Green 1) - Con-DUP talks so that Con minority government can have a confidence and supply deal with the DUP - Could be moving to a soft Brexit - cross-party talks for it have begun between the Conservatives and Labour - Hammond and Rudd appear to be pushing for a Soft Brexit - Timothy and Hill have quit (under pressure from the PCP) and the new Downing Street Chief of Street is Gavin Bartwell, a Remainer - on the left of the Conservative Party - Farron has quit as LD leader
It seems we can conclude that anecdata was very revealing if only on a very local level @Alice Aforethought, @isam, @valleyboy, and of course @David Herdson (no doubt others, too) were accurately telling us what was happening in their area, from very different political standpoints.For myself, I pointed out the large numbers of Labour activists/enthusiasm in ultra-safe Hexham and the total absence of any Tory campaign. I dismissed this as a feature of a local Party stung by Local election defeat getting off it's arse. There was a 3.9% swing to Labour here. The problem was wildly differing swings in different places. Maybe we need an interpretist study, with a correspondent in each constituency?
I'm not going to say I predicted the scale of the result, because I didn't, but I did post on numerous occasions that the popular logic of adding the 2015 Conservative and UKIP votes was a fools errand in Northern constituencies. As I recall Dixie you are a Wiganer and would doubtless concur that in South Lancs, the "never Tory" mantra still holds strong. Electoral calculus was oblivious to this.
btw are you another PB Evertonian ?
Indeed, hence my user name! I remember you pointing out Makerfield (my old stomping ground where my aged parents still reside) was at 40% Tory on EC. Even allowing for gentrification, the relatively high home ownership, and the fading of the mining memories, they were having a giraffe big time. I was with @isam (whose politics are different to mine). There are many Kippers who would slaughter their first born before voting Tory.
Don't forget the Tory vote went up by 6%. It's not perhaps surprising if Conservative activists were blindsided. And Labour activists might have assumed that any signs they were picking up would have been offset by disaster elsewhere.
True - a good friend of mine who was a Tory agent and activist didn't see it coming at all. the day of the election he was mildly confident of winning the marginal, but they ended up losing by 5,000. In fact he said he was now questioning the Tory canvassing software, as he had a almost 100% hit rate of knocking up Tories and wondered if the software was not targeting persuadable voters
[Fwiw he thought the manifesto was dire and that May was not helpful)
The explanation surely is that the Tory canvassing of their own supporters was fine, but Labour did even better (probably to their own surprise).
Perhaps. He did say they hit their internal targets for contacts etc. Does point to a flaw in the process though - interested in other canvassers views - does focused canvassing really only tell you about your own vote, and not pick up surge in your opponents ?
Important to contact your voters, but also undecideds. That second group just as important to assess voting behaviour.
Is it? I don't see any comments which seem to be very relevant at all, except possibly one about accesses for the emergency services being blocked (I don't know if that was a factor in the tragedy). But maybe I've missed something - can you point to the warnings about the cladding or holes in the fire-protection screens between floors following the renovation work, which seem to be the two main areas which the experts are saying need investigation?
I have been trying to find out more about the Grenfell Action Group - and have found it very difficult to track down much about those running it.
Thus it is hard to assess their qualifications to assess fire risk.
I am not denying that a proper investigation needs to be undertaken - but it is not good journalism to rely on one blog so heavily.
Certainly if you want to be taken seriously, it's probably best not to write things like this:
We believe that the KCTMO have ensured their ongoing survival by the use of proxy votes at their Annual General Meeting that see them returned with a mandate of 98% in favour of the continuation of their inept and highly dangerous management of our homes. It is no coincidence that the 98% is the same figure that is returned by the infamous Kim Jong-un of North Korea who claims mass popularity while reputedly enslaving the general population and starving the majority of his people to death.
Articles like this usually turn out to be wrong. We were told a couple of years ago that the Tories couldn't possibly lose because of the same group of voters.
Incidentally, Emily Thornberry walked past me this evening at about 7pm outside Kings Cross station.
And the Democrats because of the coalition of "the ascendency". What garbage.
DEMOGRAPHICS ARE ONLY DESTINY IF YOU HAVE THE RIGHT DEMOGRAPHICS.
as forecasting in general is awful across essentially all fields.
I have a rapidly-expanding second/third career based on precisely that point. It's weird how much time is spent doing it and how rarely it is remembered. Take about ten minutes a day at, say, the Telegraph's live daily business coverage. Note the predictions of pound movements over the medium term. They're all over the place, and these are proper forecasty people with City jobs. Forecasting has its place but over a certain timespan it's just noise. Given sufficient access I think I can predict an election result thirty minutes before the declaration in a by-election, and reasonably reliably two hours (ie around 1-2am) before the bookies shut shop for a GE, but before that it's a risk.
I totally agree with you. It's a topic I am prone to have proper spittle-flecked rants about, and it doesn't matter what the field is, economic and political pundits are just as bad as those who write and talk about football. What really annoys me is that pundits are rarely called to account, they make predictions but never admit how bad their track record is or explain why the get things wrong. As I always say if people could predict things accurately they sure as hell wouldn't share that knowledge.
That cnut Corbyn is trying to make hay out of the west London fire. Unbelievable. Give it a day or two FFS. What a despicable little man.
I said this morning that this fire was going to be terrible for the government.
This is what happens when a government becomes unpopular, everything that goes wrong is layed at the door of said government whether it's fair or not. It literally becomes a feeding frenzy.
A government doesn't die in one go... It is slowly destroyed by the media and the populace one crisis at a time. There will be many more situations like this (though hopefully not with this level of human suffering) in the coming months and years until eventually the Tories are swept out of power and Corbyn is PM.
That cnut Corbyn is trying to make hay out of the west London fire. Unbelievable. Give it a day or two FFS. What a despicable little man.
I said this morning that this fire was going to be terrible for the government.
This is what happens when a government becomes unpopular, everything that goes wrong is layed at the door of said government whether it's fair or not. It literally becomes a feeding frenzy.
A government doesn't die in one go... It is slowly destroyed by the media and the populace one crisis at a time. There will be many more situations like this (though hopefully not with this level of human suffering) in the coming months and years until eventually the Tories are swept out of power and Corbyn is PM.
That cnut Corbyn is trying to make hay out of the west London fire. Unbelievable. Give it a day or two FFS. What a despicable little man.
I said this morning that this fire was going to be terrible for the government.
This is what happens when a government becomes unpopular, everything that goes wrong is layed at the door of said government whether it's fair or not. It literally becomes a feeding frenzy.
A government doesn't die in one go... It is slowly destroyed by the media and the populace one crisis at a time. There will be many more situations like this (though hopefully not with this level of human suffering) in the coming months and years until eventually the Tories are swept out of power and Corbyn is PM.
I can't see anyway the Conservatives can stop it.
A fair post. The government are unpopular because May went to the country asking a specific question and got her answer. And yet she is still there. Time to go, love.
Oh, they are noticing - but it doesn't fit the narrative that people want to create.
Ordinarily a Shadow Chancellor who has just failed to be part of an election-winning cabinet calling for civil unrest would be cause for alarm in all quarters. Can't win through the ballot boxes so just take the to the street - that is dangerous talk. But I would be amazed if this rates much comment.
Problem is that for the youngsters, they'll just see it as a bigger version of the tuition fees protests, and (if they're old enough) the Iraq war march. People over 45 will remember the Winter of Discontent and the miners' strike, but there is a huge portion of the population for whom the ominous portents of politicians and trade union barons calling for direct action to topple the government mean precisely nothing.
It seems we can conclude that anecdata was very revealing if only on a very local level @Alice Aforethought, @isam, @valleyboy, and of course @David Herdson (no doubt others, too) were accurately telling us what was happening in their area, from very different political standpoints.For myself, I pointed out the large numbers of Labour activists/enthusiasm in ultra-safe Hexham and the total absence of any Tory campaign. I dismissed this as a feature of a local Party stung by Local election defeat getting off it's arse. There was a 3.9% swing to Labour here. The problem was wildly differing swings in different places. Maybe we need an interpretist study, with a correspondent in each constituency?
I'm not going to say I predicted the scale of the result, because I didn't, but I did post on numerous occasions that the popular logic of adding the 2015 Conservative and UKIP votes was a fools errand in Northern constituencies. As I recall Dixie you are a Wiganer and would doubtless concur that in South Lancs, the "never Tory" mantra still holds strong. Electoral calculus was oblivious to this.
btw are you another PB Evertonian ?
But take a look at Don Valley.
In 2010 the combined Con and UKIP total was 20,699 while this year TP managed 19,182 so he took almost all the votes available - the Yorkshire Party had 1,599 this year which would also likely have been former UKIP voters.
What defeated TP was that Labour's vote rose nearly five thousand.
Now where those extra Labour voters came from baffles me - if they were ex UKIP then TP must have been picking up previous non-voters.
It will be interesting to hear TP's view of his campaign.
In 2010 the combined Con and UKIP total was 20,699 while this year TP managed 19,182 so he took almost all the votes available - the Yorkshire Party had 1,599 this year which would also likely have been former UKIP voters.
What defeated TP was that Labour's vote rose nearly five thousand.
Now where those extra Labour voters came from baffles me - if they were ex UKIP then TP must have been picking up previous non-voters.
It will be interesting to hear TP's view of his campaign.
Yes, he did very well indeed. If Theresa May hadn't screwed up the campaign so badly, he'd have won (and so would my 8/1 bet!)
Edit: On where the vote came from, presumably some churn from DNV both to TP and to Labour, and some UKIP -> Lab.
Mayweather will barely be touched. I know boxing matches always have SOME unpredictability, but Mayweather will start around 1-5, and should probably be 1-50.
Is it? I don't see any comments which seem to be very relevant at all, except possibly one about accesses for the emergency services being blocked (I don't know if that was a factor in the tragedy). But maybe I've missed something - can you point to the warnings about the cladding or holes in the fire-protection screens between floors following the renovation work, which seem to be the two main areas which the experts are saying need investigation?
"Anyone who witnessed the recent tower block fire at Shepherds Court, in nearby Shepherd’s Bush, will know that the advice to remain in our properties would have led to certain fatalities and we are calling on our landlord to re-consider the advice that they have so badly circulated."
The landlord follows the advice of the fire service and the experts. If he ignores that advice and people subsequently die then he will be held responsible - and if he has any conscience will hold himself responsible as well.
I have no idea at the moment whether the landlord in this case is culpable in other ways but on the specific issue of the stay at home advice he had no choice but to follow the recommendations of the fire service.
Edit - that is not to say the advice is right and should not be revisited. When Piper Alpha blew up the majority of the crew followed the instructions that are drummed in to them repeatedly and went to the safe area which was in the galley. Every one who did what they were supposed to died. The only ones who survived were those who couldn't actually make it to the safe area or who decided of their own initiative to ignore the rules. Something that on a normal day would have got them sacked on the spot.
"Anyone who witnessed the recent tower block fire at Shepherds Court, in nearby Shepherd’s Bush, will know that the advice to remain in our properties would have led to certain fatalities and we are calling on our landlord to re-consider the advice that they have so badly circulated."
I've been in Rome since last Wednesday, with my Corbynista girlfriend.
Has there been any news?
Corbyn is PM in the eyes of the young country.
But May is really still PM.
In office but not in power?
Indeed. Having now been out into the world and actually met people I can confidently say that the government is fucked. That's my professional appraisal.
As for Scotland, the SNP underperformed their polling badly. If I thought they were going to score under 40% I would have been sounding the klaxon big time.
I think Scotland was the only country where there is still a Shy Tory effect. We didn't see it anywhere else.
There were several polls in Scotland during the campaign that had the Tories on more than their actual result. Some polls had Labour in the teens when they managed 27% at the end.
Over the ejection period
Peak/Min Tory was 33%/25% Labour was 29%/13% SNP was 44%/39% LD was 9%/4%
SNP only party actual result to miss the polling extremes. By 2 points as well.
I've been in Rome since last Wednesday, with my Corbynista girlfriend.
Has there been any news?
- Hung Parliament (Cons 318, Labour 262, LD 12, SNP 35, Green 1) - Con-DUP talks so that Con minority government can have a confidence and supply deal with the DUP - Could be moving to a soft Brexit - cross-party talks for it have begun between the Conservatives and Labour - Hammond and Rudd appear to be pushing for a Soft Brexit - Timothy and Hill have quit (under pressure from the PCP) and the new Downing Street Chief of Street is Gavin Bartwell, a Remainer - on the left of the Conservative Party - Farron has quit as LD leader
I've been in Rome since last Wednesday, with my Corbynista girlfriend.
Has there been any news?
- Hung Parliament (Cons 318, Labour 262, LD 12, SNP 35, Green 1) - Con-DUP talks so that Con minority government can have a confidence and supply deal with the DUP - Could be moving to a soft Brexit - cross-party talks for it have begun between the Conservatives and Labour - Hammond and Rudd appear to be pushing for a Soft Brexit - Timothy and Hill have quit (under pressure from the PCP) and the new Downing Street Chief of Street is Gavin Bartwell, a Remainer - on the left of the Conservative Party - Farron has quit as LD leader
Is it? I don't see any comments which seem to be very relevant at all, except possibly one about accesses for the emergency services being blocked (I don't know if that was a factor in the tragedy). But maybe I've missed something - can you point to the warnings about the cladding or holes in the fire-protection screens between floors following the renovation work, which seem to be the two main areas which the experts are saying need investigation?
"Anyone who witnessed the recent tower block fire at Shepherds Court, in nearby Shepherd’s Bush, will know that the advice to remain in our properties would have led to certain fatalities and we are calling on our landlord to re-consider the advice that they have so badly circulated."
The landlord follows the advice of the fire service and the experts. If he ignores that advice and people subsequently die then he will be held responsible - and if he has any conscience will hold himself responsible as well.
I have no idea at the moment whether the landlord in this case is culpable in other ways but on the specific issue of the stay at home advice he had no choice but to follow the recommendations of the fire service.
Edit - that is not to say the advice is right and should not be revisited. When Piper Alpha blew up the majority of the crew followed the instructions that are drummed in to them repeatedly and went to the safe area which was in the galley. Every one who did what they were supposed to died. The only ones who survived were those who couldn't actually make it to the safe area or who decided of their own initiative to ignore the rules. Something that on a normal day would have got them sacked on the spot.
It is also advice that makes perfect sense under the assumption that there are firebreaks in place and the fire itself is not catastrophic to the entire building, and therefore the Fire Brigade can be expected to reach you in sufficient time. Trying to leave would mean exposing oneself to the fire and/or smoke where one might other wise be safe. Of course if the firebreaks aren't sufficient and/or the fire is catastrophic then obviously people should probably take their chances.
I've been in Rome since last Wednesday, with my Corbynista girlfriend.
Has there been any news?
Corbyn is PM in the eyes of the young country.
But May is really still PM.
In office but not in power?
Indeed. Having now been out into the world and actually met people I can confidently say that the government is fucked. That's my professional appraisal.
But but bob,weren't you one of the it will be alright on the night for the pb tories in your predictions ;-)
As for Scotland, the SNP underperformed their polling badly. If I thought they were going to score under 40% I would have been sounding the klaxon big time.
I think Scotland was the only country where there is still a Shy Tory effect. We didn't see it anywhere else.
There were several polls in Scotland during the campaign that had the Tories on more than their actual result. Some polls had Labour in the teens when they managed 27% at the end.
The final Scottish poll were a bit all over the place but if you averaged them out, the margin between the Conservatives and Labour was pretty accurate. And most polls gave the Tories 28/29%, which is what they ended up getting.
However, the two parties were both around 2% up on the average of the final polls, while the SNP were about 6% down.
I've been in Rome since last Wednesday, with my Corbynista girlfriend.
Has there been any news?
Corbyn is PM in the eyes of the young country.
But May is really still PM.
In office but not in power?
Indeed. Having now been out into the world and actually met people I can confidently say that the government is fucked. That's my professional appraisal.
I think the Tory party needs to get out there and talk to people who are not our natural supporters but would be open to voting for us. There are at least two million people who voted for Labour this time that we can win over IMO, but our policies and leader were so awful we lost them all. We also need a new and huge membership drive and we need a radical agenda to get new members. Housing, housing, housing. That is the name of the game, until the party shits on (mostly) Tory voting landlords and helps out (mostly) Labour voting private tenants, we won't be able to win any kind of big victory.
Edit - that is not to say the advice is right and should not be revisited. When Piper Alpha blew up the majority of the crew followed the instructions that are drummed in to them repeatedly and went to the safe area which was in the galley. Every one who did what they were supposed to died. The only ones who survived were those who couldn't actually make it to the safe area or who decided of their own initiative to ignore the rules. Something that on a normal day would have got them sacked on the spot.
Even so the advice might have been correct. This is about probabilities, not certainties.
In the case of the tower blocks, as @TwistedFireStopper and others with actual real-life experience have emphasised, there are lots of fires in tower-blocks every year, and in nearly all of them the advice to remain in the flat with the doors shut, awaiting rescue, turns out happily. In this case, the problem seems to have been with the building, not the advice. The fire just shouldn't have been able to spread so quickly.
Mayweather will barely be touched. I know boxing matches always have SOME unpredictability, but Mayweather will start around 1-5, and should probably be 1-50.
I don't bet on boxing due to knowing I would be completely unable to psychologically take freak results but if this match hours ahead and Mayweather stats at 1-10 or better I will pile on.
I've been in Rome since last Wednesday, with my Corbynista girlfriend.
Has there been any news?
Corbyn is PM in the eyes of the young country.
But May is really still PM.
In office but not in power?
Indeed. Having now been out into the world and actually met people I can confidently say that the government is fucked. That's my professional appraisal.
I think the Tory party needs to get out there and talk to people who are not our natural supporters but would be open to voting for us. There are at least two million people who voted for Labour this time that we can win over IMO, but our policies and leader were so awful we lost them all. We also need a new and huge membership drive and we need a radical agenda to get new members. Housing, housing, housing. That is the name of the game, until the party shits on (mostly) Tory voting landlords and helps out (mostly) Labour voting private tenants, we won't be able to win any kind of big victory.
Or hope the new lib dem leader takes votes from labour
Labour are revelling in the result (as they should, to a certain extent) but at some point have to go back to their day job of opposition, the lack of a reshuffle and McDonnells comments tonight indicate they still do not want to. The longer they don't, the longer the Tories have to pull themselves together.
I've been in Rome since last Wednesday, with my Corbynista girlfriend.
Has there been any news?
Corbyn is PM in the eyes of the young country.
But May is really still PM.
In office but not in power?
Indeed. Having now been out into the world and actually met people I can confidently say that the government is fucked. That's my professional appraisal.
But but bob,weren't you one of the it will be alright on the night for the pb tories in your predictions ;-)
Yes. I was totally wrong, looking at the (mangled) polling. Now I am just talking to people, on the piss.
Goodbye Tories! seems to be the message... wealthy middle class voters going for Labour...
Labour are revelling in the result (as they should, to a certain extent) but at some point have to go back to their day job of opposition, the lack of a reshuffle and McDonnells comments tonight indicate they still do not want to. The longer they don't, the longer the Tories have to pull themselves together.
And the rumblings of discontent to start again. It seems extraordinary to make virtually no changes to the Shadow Cabinet because of their "loyalty" when the fact that the Shadow team were basically the ONLY people prepared to serve makes it unlikely that they can all be in place on merit.
I've been in Rome since last Wednesday, with my Corbynista girlfriend.
Has there been any news?
Corbyn is PM in the eyes of the young country.
But May is really still PM.
In office but not in power?
Indeed. Having now been out into the world and actually met people I can confidently say that the government is fucked. That's my professional appraisal.
I think the Tory party needs to get out there and talk to people who are not our natural supporters but would be open to voting for us. There are at least two million people who voted for Labour this time that we can win over IMO, but our policies and leader were so awful we lost them all. We also need a new and huge membership drive and we need a radical agenda to get new members. Housing, housing, housing. That is the name of the game, until the party shits on (mostly) Tory voting landlords and helps out (mostly) Labour voting private tenants, we won't be able to win any kind of big victory.
Or hope the new lib dem leader takes votes from labour
We should really try and get both done. Not sure how much of Labour's support is really liberal though, I think a properly liberal Lib Dem from the orange book branch would hurt us a lot more than it would Labour, at leasy if we have a statist like May in charge.
I've been in Rome since last Wednesday, with my Corbynista girlfriend.
Has there been any news?
Corbyn is PM in the eyes of the young country.
But May is really still PM.
In office but not in power?
Indeed. Having now been out into the world and actually met people I can confidently say that the government is fucked. That's my professional appraisal.
I think the Tory party needs to get out there and talk to people who are not our natural supporters but would be open to voting for us. There are at least two million people who voted for Labour this time that we can win over IMO, but our policies and leader were so awful we lost them all. We also need a new and huge membership drive and we need a radical agenda to get new members. Housing, housing, housing. That is the name of the game, until the party shits on (mostly) Tory voting landlords and helps out (mostly) Labour voting private tenants, we won't be able to win any kind of big victory.
They need to work as a cabinet, something they clearly haven't been doing for the last few months.
Edit - that is not to say the advice is right and should not be revisited. When Piper Alpha blew up the majority of the crew followed the instructions that are drummed in to them repeatedly and went to the safe area which was in the galley. Every one who did what they were supposed to died. The only ones who survived were those who couldn't actually make it to the safe area or who decided of their own initiative to ignore the rules. Something that on a normal day would have got them sacked on the spot.
Even so the advice might have been correct. This is about probabilities, not certainties.
In the case of the tower blocks, as @TwistedFireStopper and others with actual real-life experience have emphasised, there are lots of fires in tower-blocks every year, and in nearly all of them the advice to remain in the flat with the doors shut, awaiting rescue, turns out happily. In this case, the problem seems to have been with the building, not the advice. The fire just shouldn't have been able to spread so quickly.
Yep I was kind of making that point. Those criticising the fact the landlord or landlords were passing on the advice have to consider what the consequences would have been if this had been one of those other fires but people had died because the landlords decided not to pass on the advice.
Labour are revelling in the result (as they should, to a certain extent) but at some point have to go back to their day job of opposition, the lack of a reshuffle and McDonnells comments tonight indicate they still do not want to. The longer they don't, the longer the Tories have to pull themselves together.
And the rumblings of discontent to start again.
They cannot bring in the naysayers as this alienates a core voting group that hate them, but they need them so they can run anything like a competent opposition. The answer for them is to just not have to do this and cut to GE II where they win, but the longer May takes the flack and the Tories start to rebuild the smaller the chance of a quick second GE and the higher the chance that they actually build a campaign vehicle that will nibble away some votes.
I didn't bet a lot on the election. My initial (and biggest) bet was to sell - at the maximum amount allowed - the LDs on the seat markets at 33 when the election was first called.
After that, I made a small (and dumb) error, buying Conservative seats at 368. Fortunately, SpreadEx limited me to £2/seat, and SPIN wouldn't take my money at all.
I did take some money from those who thought the LibDems were in with a shout in Vauxhall. (Disclaimer: they weren't.) And I lost a tiny amount on Argyll & Bute (which I still need to pay).
My big call was that the LDs would do better in seat terms than people thought. On the day of the election I called 12 seats. (Someone joked that I'd made that prediction in 2015, and was just hoping it would be right this time around.) However, full disclosure, is that I thought the LDs would take 12 seats on a c. 10% vote share. I correctly predicted tactical voting would return, but I did not expect the LDs would go backwards in national vote share.
Of course, I like to think that I've been broadly right (and counter PB-consensus) on the LDs three elections in a row: 2015, 2016 Holyrood, and now 2017. Given that, I will make no more LD forecasts so as to ensure my record remains unsullied.
I really need to thank you.
Your prediction of certain Labour defeats in Cambridge and Hampstead may have helped me get 5/1 on Labour.
I would like to feel rather proud that after carefully analysing the demographics I discovered that Labour to hold Westminster N at 7/2 was incredible value.
But as the swing in Westminster North was similar to that in nearby seats I'm not sure my analysis had any merit after all.
Cambridge I got wrong.
But Hampstead was merely me being concerned that a truly terribly Conservative candidate might be elected. I don't think I ever forget a Labour defeat.
Obama was just a really good campaigner. It's the candidate stupid.
Yes, one thing I couldn't understand about last year's US election was the confidence the Democrats derived from their much-vaunted "ground game" in an era of instant mass communication.
Goodbye Tories! seems to be the message... wealthy middle class voters going for Labour...
Since sentiment seems to have turned massively over the past eight weeks, why do you assume that it can't turn again?
If voters stuck with the same parties all their lives we would rarely have majorities, and at the moment people are more mobile with their votes than ever.
I've been in Rome since last Wednesday, with my Corbynista girlfriend.
Has there been any news?
Corbyn is PM in the eyes of the young country.
But May is really still PM.
In office but not in power?
Indeed. Having now been out into the world and actually met people I can confidently say that the government is fucked. That's my professional appraisal.
But but bob,weren't you one of the it will be alright on the night for the pb tories in your predictions ;-)
Yes. I was totally wrong, looking at the (mangled) polling. Now I am just talking to people, on the piss.
Goodbye Tories! seems to be the message... wealthy middle class voters going for Labour...
I don't think that's true. In my experience it is the not-wealthy middle classes who rent that are going to Labour. They are (rightly) sick of the situation where they have no security and the government seems completely uninterested in making more housing available to buy or stopping the parasitical landlords (and estate agents) from fleecing them. It's the actual JAMs in poor quality privately rented housing that are turning out for Labour despite earning just below the higher rate threshold and having decent job prospects. Until the Tories address the housing situation we are fucked.
It seems we can conclude that anecdata was very revealing if only on a very local level @Alice Aforethought, @isam, @valleyboy, and of course @David Herdson (no doubt others, too) were accurately telling us what was happening in their area, from very different political standpoints.For myself, I pointed out the large numbers of Labour activists/enthusiasm in ultra-safe Hexham and the total absence of any Tory campaign. I dismissed this as a feature of a local Party stung by Local election defeat getting off it's arse. There was a 3.9% swing to Labour here. The problem was wildly differing swings in different places. Maybe we need an interpretist study, with a correspondent in each constituency?
I'm not going to say I predicted the scale of the result, because I didn't, but I did post on numerous occasions that the popular logic of adding the 2015 Conservative and UKIP votes was a fools errand in Northern constituencies. As I recall Dixie you are a Wiganer and would doubtless concur that in South Lancs, the "never Tory" mantra still holds strong. Electoral calculus was oblivious to this.
btw are you another PB Evertonian ?
But take a look at Don Valley.
In 2010 the combined Con and UKIP total was 20,699 while this year TP managed 19,182 so he took almost all the votes available - the Yorkshire Party had 1,599 this year which would also likely have been former UKIP voters.
What defeated TP was that Labour's vote rose nearly five thousand.
Now where those extra Labour voters came from baffles me - if they were ex UKIP then TP must have been picking up previous non-voters.
It will be interesting to hear TP's view of his campaign.
Yorkshire, not Lancashire. We are similar in so many ways, but very different in others. Hence the rivalry, and love/hate relationship.
Yep I was kind of making that point. Those criticising the fact the landlord or landlords were passing on the advice have to consider what the consequences would have been if this had been one of those other fires but people had died because the landlords decided not to pass on the advice.
Well, quite. The idea that the landlords should have set themselves up as knowing more about fire protection than the fire-protection experts is completely crackers.
Goodbye Tories! seems to be the message... wealthy middle class voters going for Labour...
Since sentiment seems to have turned massively over the past eight weeks, why do you assume that it can't turn again?
My best guess is that these voters are slowly realising that lower taxes don't confer much benefit if they have to pay through the nose for housing, childcare, education, and so on. They have cottoned on to the scam, and that's not reversible.
My best guess is that these voters are slowly realising that lower taxes don't confer much benefit if they have to pay through the nose for housing, childcare, education, and so on. They have cottoned on to the scam, and that's not reversible.
More likely they haven't looked at the alternative being offered - which was bonkers beyond all imagining.
Goodbye Tories! seems to be the message... wealthy middle class voters going for Labour...
Since sentiment seems to have turned massively over the past eight weeks, why do you assume that it can't turn again?
Richard, conversation I had tonight: if the Tories aren't the party of working hard, getting your wealth and passing it on to your children, why vote for them? You might as well vote Labour. We like Corbyn and agree with him on rail nationalisation, the price of tickets is a joke.
I posted a similar comment before the election and I will do so again:
"If you didn't have any polls or pundits showing Tories were well ahead and you just looked at the campaigns you would think May was going to lose her majority".
Fair play to you. I distinctly remember you posting exactly that.
Goodbye Tories! seems to be the message... wealthy middle class voters going for Labour...
Since sentiment seems to have turned massively over the past eight weeks, why do you assume that it can't turn again?
If voters stuck with the same parties all their lives we would rarely have majorities, and at the moment people are more mobile with their votes than ever.
Maybe a better tory manifesto that can at least compete against the giveaway labour one.
Something like free tuition fees from labour could be softened with a cut in the fees from the tories,I expect plenty of students thinking the tory policy the better one and living in the real world.
Richard, conversation I had tonight: if the Tories aren't the party of working hard, getting your wealth and passing it on to your children, why vote for them? You might as well vote Labour. We like Corbyn and agree with him on rail nationalisation, the price of tickets is a joke.
On the first half of that, yes, Theresa May screwed up the message. On the second half, anyone who likes Corbyn hasn't paid attention, and on rail nationalisation, anyone who thinks that giving the unions what they want - a licence to blackmail - would actually cut prices is completely out with the fairies. Of course, all of these arguments need to be won each time, otherwise those who like Corbyn and McDonnell were promising magic dust for zero cost will do well.
Goodbye Tories! seems to be the message... wealthy middle class voters going for Labour...
Since sentiment seems to have turned massively over the past eight weeks, why do you assume that it can't turn again?
Richard, conversation I had tonight: if the Tories aren't the party of working hard, getting your wealth and passing it on to your children, why vote for them? You might as well vote Labour. We like Corbyn and agree with him on rail nationalisation, the price of tickets is a joke.
It's (not) amazing how many people seem to believe that the wealth they own due to their house is due entirely to their own hard work. And how everyone who isn't lucky enough to own property must be feckless with their money. Even though for many the difference between a renter and a property owner is ability to raise a deposit (often with the help of others).
I've been in Rome since last Wednesday, with my Corbynista girlfriend.
Has there been any news?
There was an astroturfer poster who has disappeared now who it was suggested you might have created to wind people up. But clearly you had better things to do.
My best guess is that these voters are slowly realising that lower taxes don't confer much benefit if they have to pay through the nose for housing, childcare, education, and so on. They have cottoned on to the scam, and that's not reversible.
More likely they haven't looked at the alternative being offered - which was bonkers beyond all imagining.
I think that's a fairly patronising view, Richard and one unbecoming of you. This failure has come from our own policies and we need to look at how we can appeal to a wider audience rather than just older voters. I know enough people who looked at both offering and still voted for Corbyn, mostly because he was offering something different. What most of my friends know is £700pcm for a shitty room in a 4 bed share house in London, £150pcm for bills and council tax, a decent job but no real savings because the rent is so high. The other side of the coin is people who have left London and save £400pcm on rent but then spend £300 per month on a season ticket.
Corbyn isn't the answer to any of those questions, but neither are we, in fact we are the party of the landlords. The small tax rise on them fell on deaf ears, most of my friends on private rentals want out and to be able to buy a place of their own, but haven't got enough money for a deposit and being from a working class background, most of my friends don't have the bank of mum and dad available. 25-35 year olds who earn decent money are no longer on our side because we not on their side.
Goodbye Tories! seems to be the message... wealthy middle class voters going for Labour...
Since sentiment seems to have turned massively over the past eight weeks, why do you assume that it can't turn again?
My best guess is that these voters are slowly realising that lower taxes don't confer much benefit if they have to pay through the nose for housing, childcare, education, and so on. They have cottoned on to the scam, and that's not reversible.
The trouble is they will then find that higher taxes don't mean they have to pay any less for housing, childcare, education and so on. That is the Left wing scam.
Goodbye Tories! seems to be the message... wealthy middle class voters going for Labour...
Since sentiment seems to have turned massively over the past eight weeks, why do you assume that it can't turn again?
If voters stuck with the same parties all their lives we would rarely have majorities, and at the moment people are more mobile with their votes than ever.
Maybe a better tory manifesto that can at least compete against the giveaway labour one.
Something like free tuition fees from labour could be softened with a cut in the fees from the tories,I expect plenty of students thinking the tory policy the better one and living in the real world.
Whilst the logic was presumably not to fight on their opponents seeming strong ground, it is a shame that the Conservatives make so little effort to defend the merits of the tuition fees policy. Remember this was a policy that was actually supported by the LibDems (and there are many even on the left (as seen by articles in the press near the start of the campaign) pointing out that the effects of the policy (and as compared for example with the evidence from Scotland) in widening access and participation are far from a disaster. If the Conservatives cannot bring themselves to stand their ground and justify the intellectual basis for the policy then they might as well ditch it.
I've been in Rome since last Wednesday, with my Corbynista girlfriend.
Has there been any news?
Corbyn is PM in the eyes of the young country.
But May is really still PM.
In office but not in power?
Indeed. Having now been out into the world and actually met people I can confidently say that the government is fucked. That's my professional appraisal.
I think the Tory party needs to get out there and talk to people who are not our natural supporters but would be open to voting for us. There are at least two million people who voted for Labour this time that we can win over IMO, but our policies and leader were so awful we lost them all. We also need a new and huge membership drive and we need a radical agenda to get new members. Housing, housing, housing. That is the name of the game, until the party shits on (mostly) Tory voting landlords and helps out (mostly) Labour voting private tenants, we won't be able to win any kind of big victory.
I abstained this time but, assuming the govt opts for a sensible version of Brexit I could be persuaded next time, particularly if Corbyn/McDonnell are still there.
The problem I think the Tories face is that the membership is so elderly and UKIPPY that when May eventually stands down they will choose a leader that I can't vote for. Unfortunately it is going to take a period in opposition again before the Tories make a sensible choice like Cameron again.
My best guess is that these voters are slowly realising that lower taxes don't confer much benefit if they have to pay through the nose for housing, childcare, education, and so on. They have cottoned on to the scam, and that's not reversible.
More likely they haven't looked at the alternative being offered - which was bonkers beyond all imagining.
I think that's a fairly patronising view, Richard and one unbecoming of you.
It really isn't. McDonnell was, apparently in all seriousness, saying he could spend, what was it, an additional £48bn on current spending plus countless further tens of billions on 'investment' and nationalisation without increasing taxes on 95% of the population. By any standard, that is bonkers.
Now, where I do agree with you is that, incredibly, the Conservatives didn't challenge this madness in any serious way. The fault was very much with the Tory campaign, no doubt about it.
I've been in Rome since last Wednesday, with my Corbynista girlfriend.
Has there been any news?
Corbyn is PM in the eyes of the young country.
But May is really still PM.
In office but not in power?
Indeed. Having now been out into the world and actually met people I can confidently say that the government is fucked. That's my professional appraisal.
I think the Tory party needs to get out there and talk to people who are not our natural supporters but would be open to voting for us. There are at least two million people who voted for Labour this time that we can win over IMO, but our policies and leader were so awful we lost them all. We also need a new and huge membership drive and we need a radical agenda to get new members. Housing, housing, housing. That is the name of the game, until the party shits on (mostly) Tory voting landlords and helps out (mostly) Labour voting private tenants, we won't be able to win any kind of big victory.
Or hope the new lib dem leader takes votes from labour
We should really try and get both done. Not sure how much of Labour's support is really liberal though, I think a properly liberal Lib Dem from the orange book branch would hurt us a lot more than it would Labour, at leasy if we have a statist like May in charge.
There are a lot of (classical) liberal voters who would normally vote Conservative who didn't come out this time. The obsession with Blue Labour alienated one group while not attracting another.
I've been in Rome since last Wednesday, with my Corbynista girlfriend.
Has there been any news?
Corbyn is PM in the eyes of the young country.
But May is really still PM.
In office but not in power?
Indeed. Having now been out into the world and actually met people I can confidently say that the government is fucked. That's my professional appraisal.
I think the Tory party needs to get out there and talk to people who are not our natural supporters but would be open to voting for us. There are at least two million people who voted for Labour this time that we can win over IMO, but our policies and leader were so awful we lost them all. We also need a new and huge membership drive and we need a radical agenda to get new members. Housing, housing, housing. That is the name of the game, until the party shits on (mostly) Tory voting landlords and helps out (mostly) Labour voting private tenants, we won't be able to win any kind of big victory.
Or hope the new lib dem leader takes votes from labour
We should really try and get both done. Not sure how much of Labour's support is really liberal though, I think a properly liberal Lib Dem from the orange book branch would hurt us a lot more than it would Labour, at leasy if we have a statist like May in charge.
There are a lot of (classical) liberal voters who would normally vote Conservative who didn't come out this time. The obsession with Blue Labour alienated one group while not attracting another.
Yes, I think that's definitely true. The socialist liberal, fiscally dry wing of the party was very downbeat during the campaign and I think the voters could tell our statist message was taking them for granted.
My best guess is that these voters are slowly realising that lower taxes don't confer much benefit if they have to pay through the nose for housing, childcare, education, and so on. They have cottoned on to the scam, and that's not reversible.
More likely they haven't looked at the alternative being offered - which was bonkers beyond all imagining.
I think that's a fairly patronising view, Richard and one unbecoming of you.
It really isn't. McDonnell was, apparently in all seriousness, saying he could spend, what was it, an additional £48bn on current spending plus countless further tens of billions on 'investment' and nationalisation without increasing taxes on 95% of the population. By any standard, that is bonkers.
Now, where I do agree with you is that, incredibly, the Conservatives didn't challenge this madness in any serious way. The fault is very much with the Tory campaign, no doubt about it.
Do you think the conservatives didn't highlight the large fall in immigration because their real position is they want to keep it high and couldn't credibly argue with left wing complaints that it was harming the economy?
Do you think the conservatives didn't highlight the large fall in immigration because their real position is they want to keep it high and couldn't credibly argue with left wing complaints that it was harming the economy?
No, I'm sure that Theresa May is sincere on that. Just not very realistic.
Is it? I don't see any comments which seem to be very relevant at all...
I was thinking of posting relevant entries but there were so many I'd be here all night. Instead I'll content myself with posting just the links, since the link names themselves are adequate to convince other PB people. Note the dates.
My best guess is that these voters are slowly realising that lower taxes don't confer much benefit if they have to pay through the nose for housing, childcare, education, and so on. They have cottoned on to the scam, and that's not reversible.
More likely they haven't looked at the alternative being offered - which was bonkers beyond all imagining.
I think that's a fairly patronising view, Richard and one unbecoming of you.
It really isn't. McDonnell was, apparently in all seriousness, saying he could spend, what was it, an additional £48bn on current spending plus countless further tens of billions on 'investment' and nationalisation without increasing taxes on 95% of the population. By any standard, that is bonkers.
Now, where I do agree with you is that, incredibly, the Conservatives didn't challenge this madness in any serious way. The fault is very much with the Tory campaign, no doubt about it.
As you say, we didn't challenge it at all, and I think you underestimate how powerful the "this is different to your current lot" is for people trapped in private rentals. You know how I feel about it and hopefully the party will take it seriously now. We must gut the private rental sector. No more whining about how people who rent at the moment will have nowhere to live, or how landlords will raise the rents against falling property prices (ignoring the reality of the free market). It is time for tough action, a 5% LVT on additional property will stuff them and force them to sell, increasing home ownership (and our voter base). Fuck the parasites.
I was thinking of posting relevant entries but there were so many I'd be here all night. Instead I'll content myself with posting just the links, since the link names themselves are adequate to convince other PB people. Note the dates.
I've looked at a few of those, and haven't found anything relevant, except on access for the emergency services as I already said. To save us wading through stuff about North Korea, have I missed anything?
I have been trying to find out more about the Grenfell Action Group - and have found it very difficult to track down much about those running it.
Thus it is hard to assess their qualifications to assess fire risk.
They predicted that Grenfell Tower was a fire risk Grenfell Tower was the site of a horrible fire with many fatalities. I reckon their ability to assess fire risk is pretty good.
My best guess is that these voters are slowly realising that lower taxes don't confer much benefit if they have to pay through the nose for housing, childcare, education, and so on. They have cottoned on to the scam, and that's not reversible.
More likely they haven't looked at the alternative being offered - which was bonkers beyond all imagining.
I think that's a fairly patronising view, Richard and one unbecoming of you. This failure has come from our own policies and we need to look at how we can appeal to a wider audience rather than just older voters. I know enough people who looked at both offering and still voted for Corbyn, mostly because he was offering something different. What most of my friends know is £700pcm for a shitty room in a 4 bed share house in London, £150pcm for bills and council tax, a decent job but no real savings because the rent is so high. The other side of the coin is people who have left London and save £400pcm on rent but then spend £300 per month on a season ticket.
Corbyn isn't the answer to any of those questions, but neither are we, in fact we are the party of the landlords. The small tax rise on them fell on deaf ears, most of my friends on private rentals want out and to be able to buy a place of their own, but haven't got enough money for a deposit and being from a working class background, most of my friends don't have the bank of mum and dad available. 25-35 year olds who earn decent money are no longer on our side because we not on their side.
Max PB I agree with the thrust of your argument. (You are a Tory who gets it). However, you need to look at the other side of that too. There was much excitement over big Tory gains in North and Midlands. But, feeling still is you are party of SE. If it is a choice between hospital in Bolton and a garden bridge, many do not trust you. You have to be seen as on everybody's side, not just people struggling on reasonable incomes and high rents, but those on low incomes too. Many not the few cut through, in being able to appeal to both groups.
It would appear that getting the sample right in the first place is most important.
The blog also refers to a survation model (similar to YouGov?) has anyone actually seen this?
Nate Silver was pretty critical of the UK pollsters this time around because 'they didn't believe their own numbers'. In other words they mostly tweaked the data to make it seem more like what they expected. ICM and ComRes were the worst offenders. Survation and YouGov did it right..
As Nate put it, if you respect the data but then voters do something different, that's tough but you did your job. But if you just try and second guess the voters and get it wrong, you have no excuse.
As you say, we didn't challenge it at all, and I think you underestimate how powerful the "this is different to your current lot" is for people trapped in private rentals. You know how I feel about it and hopefully the party will take it seriously now. We must gut the private rental sector. No more whining about how people who rent at the moment will have nowhere to live, or how landlords will raise the rents against falling property prices (ignoring the reality of the free market). It is time for tough action, a 5% LVT on additional property will stuff them and force them to sell, increasing home ownership (and our voter base). Fuck the parasites.
And with that, I'm off to bed.
The trouble is that your approach will increase rents and reduce supply. I'm not sure how that is supposed to help. Some of us are old enough to remember the last time war was waged on private landlords, it took a quarter of a century to undo the damage.
Here's a bizarre thing about housing and immigration.
Between 1995 and 2008, London house prices increased more than four-fold. During that period immigration - while high relative to recent history - was modest compared to the last decade.
Between 2008 and 2016, London house prices increased only about 30%, despite a huge increase in Eastern European immigration to the UK.
There is a danger that we obsess about one of the many drivers of house prices at the expense of the bigger picture.
I have been trying to find out more about the Grenfell Action Group - and have found it very difficult to track down much about those running it.
Thus it is hard to assess their qualifications to assess fire risk.
They predicted that Grenfell Tower was a fire risk Grenfell Tower was the site of a horrible fire with many fatalities. I reckon their ability to assess fire risk is pretty good.
I have been trying to find out more about the Grenfell Action Group - and have found it very difficult to track down much about those running it.
Thus it is hard to assess their qualifications to assess fire risk.
They predicted that Grenfell Tower was a fire risk Grenfell Tower was the site of a horrible fire with many fatalities. I reckon their ability to assess fire risk is pretty good.
The fire raises some much broader issues which I suspect we will be hearing more about in due course, but now is not the time.
Comments
btw are you another PB Evertonian ?
https://twitter.com/BBCSport/status/875108336789835776
I'll never fully trust him, I think. He's so weird. He has the capacity to come across as both reasonable and scary at times.
God I feel politically all over the place these days.
This is what happens when a government becomes unpopular, everything that goes wrong is layed at the door of said government whether it's fair or not. It literally becomes a feeding frenzy.
A government doesn't die in one go... It is slowly destroyed by the media and the populace one crisis at a time. There will be many more situations like this (though hopefully not with this level of human suffering) in the coming months and years until eventually the Tories are swept out of power and Corbyn is PM.
I can't see anyway the Conservatives can stop it.
The Conservatives lost every demographic but the fastest-growing: the retired. Here's why they're still in big trouble.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/06/why-britains-ageing-population-wont-save-tories
Thus it is hard to assess their qualifications to assess fire risk.
I am not denying that a proper investigation needs to be undertaken - but it is not good journalism to rely on one blog so heavily.
"If you didn't have any polls or pundits showing Tories were well ahead and you just looked at the campaigns you would think May was going to lose her majority".
Incidentally, Emily Thornberry walked past me this evening at about 7pm outside Kings Cross station.
- Con-DUP talks so that Con minority government can have a confidence and supply deal with the DUP
- Could be moving to a soft Brexit - cross-party talks for it have begun between the Conservatives and Labour
- Hammond and Rudd appear to be pushing for a Soft Brexit
- Timothy and Hill have quit (under pressure from the PCP) and the new Downing Street Chief of Street is Gavin Bartwell, a Remainer - on the left of the Conservative Party
- Farron has quit as LD leader
We believe that the KCTMO have ensured their ongoing survival by the use of proxy votes at their Annual General Meeting that see them returned with a mandate of 98% in favour of the continuation of their inept and highly dangerous management of our homes. It is no coincidence that the 98% is the same figure that is returned by the infamous Kim Jong-un of North Korea who claims mass popularity while reputedly enslaving the general population and starving the majority of his people to death.
But May is really still PM.
Funny old world.
DEMOGRAPHICS ARE ONLY DESTINY IF YOU HAVE THE RIGHT DEMOGRAPHICS.
In 2010 the combined Con and UKIP total was 20,699 while this year TP managed 19,182 so he took almost all the votes available - the Yorkshire Party had 1,599 this year which would also likely have been former UKIP voters.
What defeated TP was that Labour's vote rose nearly five thousand.
Now where those extra Labour voters came from baffles me - if they were ex UKIP then TP must have been picking up previous non-voters.
It will be interesting to hear TP's view of his campaign.
Edit: On where the vote came from, presumably some churn from DNV both to TP and to Labour, and some UKIP -> Lab.
I have no idea at the moment whether the landlord in this case is culpable in other ways but on the specific issue of the stay at home advice he had no choice but to follow the recommendations of the fire service.
Edit - that is not to say the advice is right and should not be revisited. When Piper Alpha blew up the majority of the crew followed the instructions that are drummed in to them repeatedly and went to the safe area which was in the galley. Every one who did what they were supposed to died. The only ones who survived were those who couldn't actually make it to the safe area or who decided of their own initiative to ignore the rules. Something that on a normal day would have got them sacked on the spot.
Peak/Min Tory was 33%/25%
Labour was 29%/13%
SNP was 44%/39%
LD was 9%/4%
SNP only party actual result to miss the polling extremes. By 2 points as well.
https://twitter.com/telegraphnews/status/875026141962133504
Incredible.
Obama was just a really good campaigner. It's the candidate stupid.
However, the two parties were both around 2% up on the average of the final polls, while the SNP were about 6% down.
In the case of the tower blocks, as @TwistedFireStopper and others with actual real-life experience have emphasised, there are lots of fires in tower-blocks every year, and in nearly all of them the advice to remain in the flat with the doors shut, awaiting rescue, turns out happily. In this case, the problem seems to have been with the building, not the advice. The fire just shouldn't have been able to spread so quickly.
Goodbye Tories! seems to be the message... wealthy middle class voters going for Labour...
But Hampstead was merely me being concerned that a truly terribly Conservative candidate might be elected. I don't think I ever forget a Labour defeat.
http://survation.com/survation-most-accurate-pollster/
It would appear that getting the sample right in the first place is most important.
The blog also refers to a survation model (similar to YouGov?) has anyone actually seen this?
Something like free tuition fees from labour could be softened with a cut in the fees from the tories,I expect plenty of students thinking the tory policy the better one and living in the real world.
Corbyn isn't the answer to any of those questions, but neither are we, in fact we are the party of the landlords. The small tax rise on them fell on deaf ears, most of my friends on private rentals want out and to be able to buy a place of their own, but haven't got enough money for a deposit and being from a working class background, most of my friends don't have the bank of mum and dad available. 25-35 year olds who earn decent money are no longer on our side because we not on their side.
The problem I think the Tories face is that the membership is so elderly and UKIPPY that when May eventually stands down they will choose a leader that I can't vote for. Unfortunately it is going to take a period in opposition again before the Tories make a sensible choice like Cameron again.
Now, where I do agree with you is that, incredibly, the Conservatives didn't challenge this madness in any serious way. The fault was very much with the Tory campaign, no doubt about it.
Buy-to-let is an existential threat to the Conservative party.
Good night all.
https://grenfellactiongroup.wordpress.com/2016/11/20/kctmo-playing-with-fire/
https://grenfellactiongroup.wordpress.com/2013/01/28/fire-safety-scandal-at-lancaster-west/
https://grenfellactiongroup.wordpress.com/2013/01/30/more-on-fire-safety/
https://grenfellactiongroup.wordpress.com/2013/02/21/another-fire-safety-scandal/
https://grenfellactiongroup.wordpress.com/2016/01/24/grenfell-tower-still-a-fire-risk/
"Trotskyism is a tool of the capitalists ... Leninism is a weapon for the workers!"
And with that, I'm off to bed.
Grenfell Tower was the site of a horrible fire with many fatalities.
I reckon their ability to assess fire risk is pretty good.
As Nate put it, if you respect the data but then voters do something different, that's tough but you did your job. But if you just try and second guess the voters and get it wrong, you have no excuse.
Between 1995 and 2008, London house prices increased more than four-fold. During that period immigration - while high relative to recent history - was modest compared to the last decade.
Between 2008 and 2016, London house prices increased only about 30%, despite a huge increase in Eastern European immigration to the UK.
There is a danger that we obsess about one of the many drivers of house prices at the expense of the bigger picture.
Source: http://www.home.co.uk/guides/house_prices_report.htm?location=london&all=1