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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now the speculation is that these could be TMay’s final days a

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited June 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now the speculation is that these could be TMay’s final days as PM

This looks very possible, Grenfell Tower could be beginning of the end of Theresa May's premiership https://t.co/y9X6TRt6RE

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,956
    Infamy, infamy, they've all got it in for May.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited June 2017
    I'd love to know how Grenfell can be blamed on someone who only became PM after the refurb finished, and a good 16 years after the programme it was part of began.

    She's hopeless at the job, but this is ridiculous.
  • BigIanBigIan Posts: 198

    Infamy, infamy, they've all got it in for May.

    Very good sir.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    I did lay her to be 'next' PM. I think the market settles after the Queen's Speech. Currently layable at 1.11 on Betfair, although personally I'd avoid it for now [had I not already partaken, probably unwisely].
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,956
    Andrew said:

    I'd love to know how Grenfell can be blamed on someone who only became PM after the refurb finished, and a good 16 years after the programme it was part of began.

    It's not the refurb that's the issue, it is her wooden Maybot approach that is the issue.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164
    Andrew said:

    I'd love to know how Grenfell can be blamed on someone who only became PM after the refurb finished, and a good 16 years after the programme it was part of began.

    She's Tory scum, obviously.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    Jason said:

    SeanT said:

    My Corbynista girlfriend thinks the Grenfell fire was the explicit fault of the Tory government and evil capitalist landlords.

    By contrast, she has suspicions about the Manchester attack, and wonders if it might have been a false flag, or some kind of hoax.

    She probably has an IQ of 140 and studies Hindi and Anthropology at SOAS.

    Were we this mad at 21? Have the younger generation replaced drugs and booze with conspiracy theories and mass psychosis? I am genuinely bewildered.

    Yes we have. It's called the Internet. Seriously, it's changing the way we perceive the world to make way for our robot overlords. Conspiracy theories, mass psychosis and amusing cat videos.
    Indeed. Perfect for the Corbyn generation. He is now the leader of a mass cult movement. Jim Jones would have been so proud of him.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,956
    Andrew said:

    I'd love to know how Grenfell can be blamed on someone who only became PM after the refurb finished, and a good 16 years after the programme it was part of began.

    She's hopeless at the job, but this is ridiculous.

    From the business insider article

    Her botched private visit to the scene of the fire, in which she failed to meet any residents, reportedly because of "security fears" caused huge anger among those affected, as did her subsequent media interviews in which she failed to even acknowledge the anger that had been caused.

    Pictures of the PM at the scene, taken from a distance, helped crystallise what is fast becoming a settled view of the PM as a cold and distant figure out of touch with the public she represents.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    She is no longer in control of events which will wash her away shortly. Her best bet to prolong her time in the job is to announce resignation as leader and squat as PM till a replacement emerges.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    SeanT said:

    David Davis as PM to reassure Leavers. Hammond as Brexit dude (meaning Softer Brexit)

    Perfect. Rudd to Chancellor. Keep BoJo as Forsec.

    I'm afraid TMay is a busted flush; I feel genuinely sorry for her; but the longer she stays the worse it will get. You can't come back from that sort of meltdown

    Davis would be a better choice of PM than Hammond, by a mile. God, we live in perilous times. We're an inch away from having a far left extremist as our PM. Forget Brexit. If you want to see real damage, wait for Corbyn PM.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038

    I did lay her to be 'next' PM. I think the market settles after the Queen's Speech. Currently layable at 1.11 on Betfair, although personally I'd avoid it for now [had I not already partaken, probably unwisely].

    Please, please make Hammond PM for Queen's Speech. Thanks to the PB tip - I am in for a stack if that happens.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited June 2017
    Angry protest at Kensington town hall. Peaceful at the moment but very angry and noisy.
    Demanding answers but nobody replying.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Jason said:

    SeanT said:

    David Davis as PM to reassure Leavers. Hammond as Brexit dude (meaning Softer Brexit)

    Perfect. Rudd to Chancellor. Keep BoJo as Forsec.

    I'm afraid TMay is a busted flush; I feel genuinely sorry for her; but the longer she stays the worse it will get. You can't come back from that sort of meltdown

    Davis would be a better choice of PM than Hammond, by a mile. God, we live in perilous times. We're an inch away from having a far left extremist as our PM. Forget Brexit. If you want to see real damage, wait for Corbyn PM.
    Brexit is a bigger disaster than PM Corbyn.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274

    Jason said:

    SeanT said:

    David Davis as PM to reassure Leavers. Hammond as Brexit dude (meaning Softer Brexit)

    Perfect. Rudd to Chancellor. Keep BoJo as Forsec.

    I'm afraid TMay is a busted flush; I feel genuinely sorry for her; but the longer she stays the worse it will get. You can't come back from that sort of meltdown

    Davis would be a better choice of PM than Hammond, by a mile. God, we live in perilous times. We're an inch away from having a far left extremist as our PM. Forget Brexit. If you want to see real damage, wait for Corbyn PM.
    Brexit is a bigger disaster than PM Corbyn.

    Bollocks.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Do the Men in Grey Suits work over the weekend?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Boris opens both barrels on Labour and Khan in particular. Fightback begins with his push for PM.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    SeanT said:

    David Davis as PM to reassure Leavers. Hammond as Brexit dude (meaning Softer Brexit)

    Perfect. Rudd to Chancellor. Keep BoJo as Forsec.

    I'm afraid TMay is a busted flush; I feel genuinely sorry for her; but the longer she stays the worse it will get. You can't come back from that sort of meltdown

    I suggest the other way around - Philip Hammond as Prime Minister, David Davis as Mr Brexit, effectively a dual Prime Ministership.

    Earlier this afternoon I put a bit more money on each of them at very long odds to be Prime Minister after the election. Prices have shortened since then but with the whiff of insurrection in the air, they may well still be good value.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,876
    I do not see how Davis is a safe pair of hands. He thinks walking away from the EU without a deal is a serious option.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    SeanT said:

    Jason said:

    SeanT said:

    David Davis as PM to reassure Leavers. Hammond as Brexit dude (meaning Softer Brexit)

    Perfect. Rudd to Chancellor. Keep BoJo as Forsec.

    I'm afraid TMay is a busted flush; I feel genuinely sorry for her; but the longer she stays the worse it will get. You can't come back from that sort of meltdown

    Davis would be a better choice of PM than Hammond, by a mile. God, we live in perilous times. We're an inch away from having a far left extremist as our PM. Forget Brexit. If you want to see real damage, wait for Corbyn PM.
    Couldn't agree more. Terrifying. I'm a Leaver (obv) but Brexit is now secondary to the clear and present danger of Corbyn as PM.

    Surely Tory MPs see this? If they don't they are crazy.

    We need the Softest Brexit possible to ensure the minimum damage and to give the Tories the best chance of surviving til 2021-2022, by which time, hopefully, the public will have gotten over their fit of madness and Corbyn will be shop-soiled (which he will, after a year or two)

    This is like wartime. Normal rules are suspended.
    Agreed. Anyone and anything but Corbyn and Momentum.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited June 2017
    SeanT said:

    Jason said:

    SeanT said:

    David Davis as PM to reassure Leavers. Hammond as Brexit dude (meaning Softer Brexit)

    Perfect. Rudd to Chancellor. Keep BoJo as Forsec.

    I'm afraid TMay is a busted flush; I feel genuinely sorry for her; but the longer she stays the worse it will get. You can't come back from that sort of meltdown

    Davis would be a better choice of PM than Hammond, by a mile. God, we live in perilous times. We're an inch away from having a far left extremist as our PM. Forget Brexit. If you want to see real damage, wait for Corbyn PM.
    Brexit is a bigger disaster than PM Corbyn.

    How about this as a compromise we can all agree on: the combination of Hard Brexit AND Corbyn/McDonnell would be an utter catastrophe. Wealth would flee the country. Property prices would collapse. An utter rout.
    Is that before or after Jezza started nicking houses?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    I did lay her to be 'next' PM. I think the market settles after the Queen's Speech. Currently layable at 1.11 on Betfair, although personally I'd avoid it for now [had I not already partaken, probably unwisely].

    Please, please make Hammond PM for Queen's Speech. Thanks to the PB tip - I am in for a stack if that happens.
    If that comes off, I may retire as a tipster because I will never ever be able to top it.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535

    Jason said:

    SeanT said:

    David Davis as PM to reassure Leavers. Hammond as Brexit dude (meaning Softer Brexit)

    Perfect. Rudd to Chancellor. Keep BoJo as Forsec.

    I'm afraid TMay is a busted flush; I feel genuinely sorry for her; but the longer she stays the worse it will get. You can't come back from that sort of meltdown

    Davis would be a better choice of PM than Hammond, by a mile. God, we live in perilous times. We're an inch away from having a far left extremist as our PM. Forget Brexit. If you want to see real damage, wait for Corbyn PM.
    Brexit is a bigger disaster than PM Corbyn.

    Bollocks.
    ++

    Corbyn would be the worst thing to happen to this country since WWII.
  • She seems to be lurching from crisis to crisis, and now can't do anything right. A real reverse Midas Touch. She also looks shell shocked, and probably can't wait for it to be over.
    I reckon she'll quit after the QS, and quit politics immediately. A new PM followed by public outcry over another "unelected" PM, another GE, and hello PM Corbyn.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274

    She seems to be lurching from crisis to crisis, and now can't do anything right. A real reverse Midas Touch. She also looks shell shocked, and probably can't wait for it to be over.
    I reckon she'll quit after the QS, and quit politics immediately. A new PM followed by public outcry over another "unelected" PM, another GE, and hello PM Corbyn.

    And hello Canada for me....
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Devastating but reads like the case for the defence of Lynton Crosby.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,876
    SeanT said:

    Jason said:

    SeanT said:

    David Davis as PM to reassure Leavers. Hammond as Brexit dude (meaning Softer Brexit)

    Perfect. Rudd to Chancellor. Keep BoJo as Forsec.

    I'm afraid TMay is a busted flush; I feel genuinely sorry for her; but the longer she stays the worse it will get. You can't come back from that sort of meltdown

    Davis would be a better choice of PM than Hammond, by a mile. God, we live in perilous times. We're an inch away from having a far left extremist as our PM. Forget Brexit. If you want to see real damage, wait for Corbyn PM.
    Brexit is a bigger disaster than PM Corbyn.

    How about this as a compromise we can all agree on: the combination of Hard Brexit AND Corbyn/McDonnell would be an utter catastrophe. Wealth would flee the country. Property prices would collapse. An utter rout.

    Wealth will flee the country and house prices will collapse with a hard Brexit whoever is in charge. It's merely a question of degree.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,973
    We are witnessing the end of May.

    Hammond would be a disaster. Just as impersonal.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Given the speed of the collapse and its complete unexpectedness amongst those at the centre, it reminds me most of the accounts of the Fall of France 1940.

    “Où est la masse de manoeuvre?”
    “Aucune!”
  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    edited June 2017

    I do not see how Davis is a safe pair of hands. He thinks walking away from the EU without a deal is a serious option.

    It's a negotiating position.

    If you tell the other side you won't walk away in any circumstances no matter how bad the deal, you will get a worse deal.

    If they think you might walk away from the table and this is also bad for them, you have a stronger negotiating hand.

    Of course, like the nuclear deterrent, you can't declare your hand or it becomes useless.

  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Britain is a global laughing stock,not least in the 27 EU capitals.May must go.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,722

    SeanT said:

    David Davis as PM to reassure Leavers. Hammond as Brexit dude (meaning Softer Brexit)

    Perfect. Rudd to Chancellor. Keep BoJo as Forsec.

    I'm afraid TMay is a busted flush; I feel genuinely sorry for her; but the longer she stays the worse it will get. You can't come back from that sort of meltdown

    I suggest the other way around - Philip Hammond as Prime Minister, David Davis as Mr Brexit, effectively a dual Prime Ministership.

    Earlier this afternoon I put a bit more money on each of them at very long odds to be Prime Minister after the election. Prices have shortened since then but with the whiff of insurrection in the air, they may well still be good value.
    On election night I pressed the cash out button to lock in about £70 on this market, turns out in doing so I laid DD at 1000!!

    He and Hammond are nice winners now though

    I feel really sorry for May. She has had 3 terrorist attacks plus the Grenfell fire to deal with in less than a year. Brexit on her plate too, she is becoming a scapegoat for everything people want to project about
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038

    I did lay her to be 'next' PM. I think the market settles after the Queen's Speech. Currently layable at 1.11 on Betfair, although personally I'd avoid it for now [had I not already partaken, probably unwisely].

    Please, please make Hammond PM for Queen's Speech. Thanks to the PB tip - I am in for a stack if that happens.
    If that comes off, I may retire as a tipster because I will never ever be able to top it.
    Indeed. Tip of the decade?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    As Mike reminded us in the header, this post is out of date by about two decades.

    The process by which the Tory Party now gets rid of leaders it doesn't want is:

    1. 15% of Conservative MPs need to send the Chairman of the 1922 Committee letters requesting a No Confidence vote. This sets the bar at 48 MPs at present.
    2. That no confidence motion must be carried.

    If these conditions are satisfied, a new leadership election is held in which the previous leader is barred from standing.

    My guess would be that despite the subsequent problems that followed May's coronation last July, there would still be a preference for a Magic Circle succession if possible.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    edited June 2017

    We are witnessing the end of May.

    Hammond would be a disaster. Just as impersonal.

    Just topped up my leadership bets. Added Javid and Hunt.

    In this febrile atmosphere anything could happen.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,876
    SeanT said:

    We are witnessing the end of May.

    Hammond would be a disaster. Just as impersonal.

    People don't mind impersonal. They just want competent and human. Hammond can do that, he can also tell the odd dry joke (quite well).

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/video/2017/mar/08/philip-hammonds-top-five-jokes-during-budget-speech-video

    TMay looks incompetent and inhuman. It's horrible for her, but there it is.

    Hammond may be grey, but he is smart and can think on his feet. He will also be transactional about Brexit, not religious, which is exactly what we need.

    I seem to remember him doing pretty well during those huge floods a few years back.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Urquhart, I second your bollocks.

    Mr. Borough, I stand to make a little. Just checked, and I laid at about 1.14 or thereabouts.

    Anyway, my potential loss there will be swallowed by the winnings on the Lib Dem leadership (still talking peanuts, of course, but important to try and be green).
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Infamy, infamy, they've all got it in for May.

    An excellent pun Mr Eagles!

    The only good thing is that switching our PM at this stage and so soon after an election, might convince the EU that we are all barking mad and deserve a sympathy vote in the Brexit talks.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Protesters have entered Kensington Town Hall demanding people come out and answer questions. Situation calm but simmering.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,542
    tim80 said:

    FF43 said:

    Might as well get it out the way. The only thing that matters for us now is the transition/continuity arrangement and that gets decided last, after the divorce terms and the agreed final desitination
    It's sensible to discuss it first and explain to the EU that the UK is owed money on a net basis. They can then choose how to respond.
    FPT

    Good plan if you don't care about a timely arrangement with the EU. If you are concerned about things like trade, prosperity and jobs you might as well take the hit. What's €60 billion against all the other damage Brexit is causing?

    Which is why, OT, it might be a good idea to get the exit fee sorted before Theresa May is banished. It will get somewhat lost in the chaos, and her successor can blame it on her.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,757

    Devastating but reads like the case for the defence of Lynton Crosby.
    I thought more Jim Messina but yes. Still brutal journalism though. Many, many ex Tory MPs and those who held on by the skin of their teeth will be pretty angry to see it all in one place like that, even if they had lived through bits of it.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401

    Do the Men in Grey Suits work over the weekend?

    They become men in tweed suits.

    (They don't of course: that hasn't been the case for fifty years, but then the imagery is about fifty years old so the anachronism is consistent).
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Jason said:

    SeanT said:

    David Davis as PM to reassure Leavers. Hammond as Brexit dude (meaning Softer Brexit)

    Perfect. Rudd to Chancellor. Keep BoJo as Forsec.

    I'm afraid TMay is a busted flush; I feel genuinely sorry for her; but the longer she stays the worse it will get. You can't come back from that sort of meltdown

    Davis would be a better choice of PM than Hammond, by a mile. God, we live in perilous times. We're an inch away from having a far left extremist as our PM. Forget Brexit. If you want to see real damage, wait for Corbyn PM.
    Brexit is a bigger disaster than PM Corbyn.

    :+1:

    To paraphrase - "I agree with Mike" (how very Lib-Dem-ish of me) :D:D
  • TypoTypo Posts: 195

    Protesters have entered Kensington Town Hall demanding people come out and answer questions. Situation calm but simmering.

    London has the potential to be a tinderbox this weekend.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,876

    I do not see how Davis is a safe pair of hands. He thinks walking away from the EU without a deal is a serious option.

    It's a negotiating position.

    If you tell the other side you won't walk away in any circumstances no matter how bad the deal, you will get a worse deal.

    If they think you might walk away from the table and this is also bad for them, you have a stronger negotiating hand.

    Of course, like the nuclear deterrent, you can't declare your hand or it becomes useless.

    It's only a negotiating hand if you are prepared to do it. Anyone prepared to inflict that scale of economic hardship on people is not a safe pair of hands.
  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    A little perspective and time is required.

    If she can get through the current frothing to the Queen's speech, (and she must or there is a risk to the Conservative government in its entirety) then she must get through to summer. This enables either a little perspective and calm to settle, or it enables a smoother transition to a new PM during the recess.

    Frothing and panic helps no one - country nor party. Viewed from the next election, whether there is a transition this week, in the summer or next year is probably of little consequence - even if it seems significant now.

    For me, I either want her to see Brexit through or have a smooth transition in time for the outcome of the German elections - with the new PM leading on the real Brexit discussions that then take place.
  • I'd query the phrase "beginning of the end" in the Business Insider headline.

    The beginning of the end surely happened last Thursday, and everyone can see that (except, possibly, the occupant of Number 10). The only question is how protracted the end is. But it's been very clear that May will fight no more General Elections, and never again enjoy the sunlit uplands that spread out before her on that one fateful day that she rested atop her Welsh hill and pondered "what if?"
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535

    Britain is a global laughing stock,not least in the 27 EU capitals.May must go.

    If they are laughing they plainly don't get it yet. What can happen here can happen anywhere. After Brexit, Trump, Macron (and don't forget how well Le Pen did), and GE 2017 what elections in the West are still considered to be safely predictable? Electorates are reaching for the big red button again and again. I doubt that we have seen the last of that.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401

    I do not see how Davis is a safe pair of hands. He thinks walking away from the EU without a deal is a serious option.

    It is, and it has to be.

    Ironically, had Cameron taken the same approach, we'd probably still be in the EU now.
  • MetatronMetatron Posts: 193
    Could someone explain why Clark 100/1 is completely off the radar?
    Do people know something?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,876

    Do the Men in Grey Suits work over the weekend?

    They become men in tweed suits.

    (They don't of course: that hasn't been the case for fifty years, but then the imagery is about fifty years old so the anachronism is consistent).

    Don't they become men in red trousers?

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Just checked (I have no bet on the next Con leader), and am puzzled that Hammond is 13 to be next leader, but Ruth Davidson is 9. Is that not crazy?
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    The tories would be mad to get rid of her now.

  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621

    I do not see how Davis is a safe pair of hands. He thinks walking away from the EU without a deal is a serious option.

    It's a negotiating position.

    If you tell the other side you won't walk away in any circumstances no matter how bad the deal, you will get a worse deal.

    If they think you might walk away from the table and this is also bad for them, you have a stronger negotiating hand.

    Of course, like the nuclear deterrent, you can't declare your hand or it becomes useless.

    It's only a negotiating hand if you are prepared to do it. Anyone prepared to inflict that scale of economic hardship on people is not a safe pair of hands.
    No - it is only necessary for the other side to think you might do it, for it to be effective.

    Just like the nuclear deterrent. That's why Corbyn's position is so risible - we'll have the nukes but never use them.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited June 2017
    Typo said:

    Protesters have entered Kensington Town Hall demanding people come out and answer questions. Situation calm but simmering.

    London has the potential to be a tinderbox this weekend.
    Could do with a really wet weekend....would be best for everyone.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Metatron, he's old and an EU-phile. We're about to negotiate leaving the EU. He won't stand and he'd be even more divisive than Boris Johnson if he won.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401

    I'd query the phrase "beginning of the end" in the Business Insider headline.

    The beginning of the end surely happened last Thursday, and everyone can see that (except, possibly, the occupant of Number 10). The only question is how protracted the end is. But it's been very clear that May will fight no more General Elections, and never again enjoy the sunlit uplands that spread out before her on that one fateful day that she rested atop her Welsh hill and pondered "what if?"

    The beginning of the end was the manifesto launch.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038

    Do the Men in Grey Suits work over the weekend?

    They become men in tweed suits.

    (They don't of course: that hasn't been the case for fifty years, but then the imagery is about fifty years old so the anachronism is consistent).
    :lol:

    So far on this thread I have been twenty years out of date and fifty years out of date.

    I think I am becoming Jezza Corbyn.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,757

    The tories would be mad to get rid of her now.

    They are mad. They are fucking furious. And so they should be.
  • TypoTypo Posts: 195
    SeanT said:

    The tories would be mad to get rid of her now.

    I think she might just go, anyway. Imagine the intolerable strain on her. Jesus.
    Totally. Anybody would be inclined to think 'sod it' in this atmosphere.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038

    Just checked (I have no bet on the next Con leader), and am puzzled that Hammond is 13 to be next leader, but Ruth Davidson is 9. Is that not crazy?

    Yes.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,757

    Typo said:

    Protesters have entered Kensington Town Hall demanding people come out and answer questions. Situation calm but simmering.

    London has the potential to be a tinderbox this weekend.
    Could do with a really wet weekend....would be best for everyone.
    I thought it was going to be really hot? Hotter than Barca I saw (and it wasn't in the Express either).
  • TypoTypo Posts: 195
    DavidL said:

    Typo said:

    Protesters have entered Kensington Town Hall demanding people come out and answer questions. Situation calm but simmering.

    London has the potential to be a tinderbox this weekend.
    Could do with a really wet weekend....would be best for everyone.
    I thought it was going to be really hot? Hotter than Barca I saw (and it wasn't in the Express either).
    Touching 30 degrees on Saturday and Sunday.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    edited June 2017
    I am extremely happy with my 44s (BF) on Rudd next PM.

    Edit: sorry after the election.

    10s on Rudd next PM after Tezza.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535

    Typo said:

    Protesters have entered Kensington Town Hall demanding people come out and answer questions. Situation calm but simmering.

    London has the potential to be a tinderbox this weekend.
    Could do with a really wet weekend....would be best for everyone.
    Good news the weather forecast is dry, lots of sun, and high temperatures.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,876
    My sense is that the left is in the process of massively overplaying its hand. If protests turn to violence it will ring every single alarm bell it is possible to ring in middle England and deliver a large number of people back to the Tories.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    DavidL said:

    The tories would be mad to get rid of her now.

    They are mad. They are fucking furious. And so they should be.
    Maybe but getting rid when big events are going on at this time will only lead to disaster for the government.

    Best is to wait until later this year or next year.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,757

    Just checked (I have no bet on the next Con leader), and am puzzled that Hammond is 13 to be next leader, but Ruth Davidson is 9. Is that not crazy?

    Yes.
    If she stood down does Ruth stand in Maidenhead? Looking at the options in this deeply mediocre cabinet they could really do with her.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,876

    I do not see how Davis is a safe pair of hands. He thinks walking away from the EU without a deal is a serious option.

    It's a negotiating position.

    If you tell the other side you won't walk away in any circumstances no matter how bad the deal, you will get a worse deal.

    If they think you might walk away from the table and this is also bad for them, you have a stronger negotiating hand.

    Of course, like the nuclear deterrent, you can't declare your hand or it becomes useless.

    It's only a negotiating hand if you are prepared to do it. Anyone prepared to inflict that scale of economic hardship on people is not a safe pair of hands.
    No - it is only necessary for the other side to think you might do it, for it to be effective.

    Just like the nuclear deterrent. That's why Corbyn's position is so risible - we'll have the nukes but never use them.

    Likewise, we are not going to unilaterally inflict sustained economic harm on ourselves.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    DavidL said:

    Typo said:

    Protesters have entered Kensington Town Hall demanding people come out and answer questions. Situation calm but simmering.

    London has the potential to be a tinderbox this weekend.
    Could do with a really wet weekend....would be best for everyone.
    I thought it was going to be really hot? Hotter than Barca I saw (and it wasn't in the Express either).
    Fire up the Quattro Water Cannons....
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,876
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    We are witnessing the end of May.

    Hammond would be a disaster. Just as impersonal.

    People don't mind impersonal. They just want competent and human. Hammond can do that, he can also tell the odd dry joke (quite well).

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/video/2017/mar/08/philip-hammonds-top-five-jokes-during-budget-speech-video

    TMay looks incompetent and inhuman. It's horrible for her, but there it is.

    Hammond may be grey, but he is smart and can think on his feet. He will also be transactional about Brexit, not religious, which is exactly what we need.

    I seem to remember him doing pretty well during those huge floods a few years back.

    Hammond will keep us in either the Customs Union or the SM or both. Right now this is what we need. Stability. Transition. Slow and steady.

    See, sensible people like you and me can agree on this. We've just got to persuade the hardcore nutters on your left and my right.

    The far left will never, ever agree to this. They want trouble. From trouble comes uprising, they believe.
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215

    My sense is that the left is in the process of massively overplaying its hand. If protests turn to violence it will ring every single alarm bell it is possible to ring in middle England and deliver a large number of people back to the Tories.

    He's teflon Corbyn, is just as likely to get loads of credit for being the voice calling for peace and calming the situation.

    What we really need is the government to get a grip and show some leadership.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704

    My sense is that the left is in the process of massively overplaying its hand. If protests turn to violence it will ring every single alarm bell it is possible to ring in middle England and deliver a large number of people back to the Tories.

    This is the moment Wolfie Corbyn and Che Mcdonnell have been waiting for SO, their time has come!
  • Protester blaming the Met for stopping the residents from "rescuing their babies". Someone ne3ds to get a grip of this situation pronto.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited June 2017

    Likewise, we are not going to unilaterally inflict sustained economic harm on ourselves.

    By the same reasoning, nor should they - and more immediately, nor should they say good bye to any exit payment or on-going contributions to their budget, which seem to be amongst their key demands.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    edited June 2017

    My sense is that the left is in the process of massively overplaying its hand. If protests turn to violence it will ring every single alarm bell it is possible to ring in middle England and deliver a large number of people back to the Tories.

    May needs to go sooner rather than later still. I've reloaded onto Hammond and Davis.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,876

    My sense is that the left is in the process of massively overplaying its hand. If protests turn to violence it will ring every single alarm bell it is possible to ring in middle England and deliver a large number of people back to the Tories.

    This is the moment Wolfie Corbyn and Che Mcdonnell have been waiting for SO, their time has come!

    Yep, I know. And they are going to blow it. In the end, what they want is unachievable.

  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    DavidL said:

    Just checked (I have no bet on the next Con leader), and am puzzled that Hammond is 13 to be next leader, but Ruth Davidson is 9. Is that not crazy?

    Yes.
    If she stood down does Ruth stand in Maidenhead? Looking at the options in this deeply mediocre cabinet they could really do with her.
    Timing/sequence wrong.

    Maidenhead only available when May no longer leader. Davidson can't be leader if she has to wait for Maidenhead.

    Asides from which Davidson doesn't want the job, apparently.



  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,757

    DavidL said:

    The tories would be mad to get rid of her now.

    They are mad. They are fucking furious. And so they should be.
    Maybe but getting rid when big events are going on at this time will only lead to disaster for the government.

    Best is to wait until later this year or next year.
    I think she is doing very serious damage to the brand every day she hangs on. She should have gone already. Politics is a tough trade and she has made a catalogue of serious errors.

    What is clear is that replacing her will be a more cabinet based government. We won't have this clique knows best nonsense again for a while.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    Tinderbox London. It is going to explode this weekend I think.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274

    Protester blaming the Met for stopping the residents from "rescuing their babies". Someone ne3ds to get a grip of this situation pronto.

    I am not sure how.....it is a lynch mob who the authorities can't be seen to be going hard on.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    Helmut Kohl dead.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517

    Angry protest at Kensington town hall. Peaceful at the moment but very angry and noisy.
    Demanding answers but nobody replying.

    And what if the answers they get are not the ones they want to hear?

    Even if the answers are truthful?
  • I'd query the phrase "beginning of the end" in the Business Insider headline.

    The beginning of the end surely happened last Thursday, and everyone can see that (except, possibly, the occupant of Number 10). The only question is how protracted the end is. But it's been very clear that May will fight no more General Elections, and never again enjoy the sunlit uplands that spread out before her on that one fateful day that she rested atop her Welsh hill and pondered "what if?"

    The beginning of the end was the manifesto launch.
    Or the decision to call the election in the first place!

    I suppose I'd measure "beginning of the end" as the point of no return. Could May and her team have turned it around post-manifesto so as to secure a reasonable majority? Full mea culpa, Timothy falls on his sword immediately, press the reset button, aggressively get May out on the soapbox and even the debates? Possibly. Can they turn it around now? No - they can slow the fall but it's only going one way.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400

    Protester blaming the Met for stopping the residents from "rescuing their babies". Someone ne3ds to get a grip of this situation pronto.

    Heard someone on 5Live this morning saying the Army should have been landing helicopters on the roof to rescue people.

    People believe too much of what they see in films sadly.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,956
    edited June 2017
    I try and have sympathy for her, then I remember how badly she treated so many Tories the evening she became Prime Minister.

    Karma is a bitch.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    TOPPING said:

    I am extremely happy with my 44s (BF) on Rudd next PM.

    Edit: sorry after the election.

    10s on Rudd next PM after Tezza.

    If she holds her seat.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited June 2017
    As tragic as the situation is, some of the supplementary political reaction has been absurd, likely due to the febrile atmosphere following the election results, but it has still been ridiculous. The numbers presuppose either one stable outcome (be it from coalition, pact or just getting through the queen's speech) or another election, the faffing about needs to stop.
  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621

    I do not see how Davis is a safe pair of hands. He thinks walking away from the EU without a deal is a serious option.

    It's a negotiating position.

    If you tell the other side you won't walk away in any circumstances no matter how bad the deal, you will get a worse deal.

    If they think you might walk away from the table and this is also bad for them, you have a stronger negotiating hand.

    Of course, like the nuclear deterrent, you can't declare your hand or it becomes useless.

    It's only a negotiating hand if you are prepared to do it. Anyone prepared to inflict that scale of economic hardship on people is not a safe pair of hands.
    No - it is only necessary for the other side to think you might do it, for it to be effective.

    Just like the nuclear deterrent. That's why Corbyn's position is so risible - we'll have the nukes but never use them.

    Likewise, we are not going to unilaterally inflict sustained economic harm on ourselves.
    But we are not going to tell them that. It would be MAD.

    Plus it depends on how bad a deal is on the table. Surely we can both conceive of deals that are so bad that no deal and WTO is better? A £100bn bill, or £200bn or a trillion. Therefore in principle no deal can be better than a bad deal - it just depends on your definition of a bad deal.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,757

    DavidL said:

    Just checked (I have no bet on the next Con leader), and am puzzled that Hammond is 13 to be next leader, but Ruth Davidson is 9. Is that not crazy?

    Yes.
    If she stood down does Ruth stand in Maidenhead? Looking at the options in this deeply mediocre cabinet they could really do with her.
    Timing/sequence wrong.

    Maidenhead only available when May no longer leader. Davidson can't be leader if she has to wait for Maidenhead.

    Asides from which Davidson doesn't want the job, apparently.



    Did Jim Hacker not have a very similar line?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    SeanT said:
    Things are going to get very nasty very quickly and I don't think anyone can predict what might happen. Public opinion is very volitile both ways.

    I'm with SO, labour and the media are whipping this up, and they might not be able to control the narrative or the fall out.

    I'm glad I'm staying out of london this weekend.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    And what if the answers they get are not the ones they want to hear?

    Even if the answers are truthful?

    What really annoys me is newspapers and broadcasters saying 'X refuses to answer questions', when the reality is not that X refuses to answer, it's that X doesn't know the answers.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Topping, those are nice odds on Rudd.

    Mr. T, marvellous.

    Mr. Pulpstar, indeed. Thank goodness the Leader of the Opposition and media haven't been stoking it up.
  • SirBenjaminSirBenjamin Posts: 238
    OT, but: Helmut Kohl
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,876
    DanSmith said:

    My sense is that the left is in the process of massively overplaying its hand. If protests turn to violence it will ring every single alarm bell it is possible to ring in middle England and deliver a large number of people back to the Tories.

    He's teflon Corbyn, is just as likely to get loads of credit for being the voice calling for peace and calming the situation.

    What we really need is the government to get a grip and show some leadership.

    We absolutely do. That's why May has to go. The country has not felt this ungoverned for a very long time.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited June 2017

    And what if the answers they get are not the ones they want to hear?

    Even if the answers are truthful?

    What really annoys me is newspapers and broadcasters saying 'X refuses to answer questions', when the reality is not that X refuses to answer, it's that X doesn't know the answers.
    There has been some disgraceful reporting from the media. Rather than say we don't know, there is going to be an inquiry, they have spent hours discussing all sorts of "theories", including comparing this to Hillsborough and a potential cover-up.
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    Sean

    FPT I was joshing of course, but thanks for taking it well.

    But you are right – the fake news of the hard right press has been replaced by the fake news of the Corbynista millennial left. The problem the former has is that their fake news is diminished in power whereas the left's seems to be growing. It can even sway the minds of highly intelligent Soas beauties!
  • isamisam Posts: 40,722
    Pulpstar said:

    Tinderbox London. It is going to explode this weekend I think.

    Third world country stylee... momentum will be absolutely loving it
This discussion has been closed.