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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now the speculation is that these could be TMay’s final days a
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now the speculation is that these could be TMay’s final days as PM
This looks very possible, Grenfell Tower could be beginning of the end of Theresa May's premiership https://t.co/y9X6TRt6RE
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She's hopeless at the job, but this is ridiculous.
Her botched private visit to the scene of the fire, in which she failed to meet any residents, reportedly because of "security fears" caused huge anger among those affected, as did her subsequent media interviews in which she failed to even acknowledge the anger that had been caused.
Pictures of the PM at the scene, taken from a distance, helped crystallise what is fast becoming a settled view of the PM as a cold and distant figure out of touch with the public she represents.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/revealed-how-theresa-mays-two-aides-seized-control-of-the-tory-campaign-to-calamitous-effect-a3566796.html
Can May really survive this weekend without a stalking horse appearing?
Demanding answers but nobody replying.
Earlier this afternoon I put a bit more money on each of them at very long odds to be Prime Minister after the election. Prices have shortened since then but with the whiff of insurrection in the air, they may well still be good value.
Corbyn would be the worst thing to happen to this country since WWII.
I reckon she'll quit after the QS, and quit politics immediately. A new PM followed by public outcry over another "unelected" PM, another GE, and hello PM Corbyn.
Hammond would be a disaster. Just as impersonal.
“Où est la masse de manoeuvre?”
“Aucune!”
If you tell the other side you won't walk away in any circumstances no matter how bad the deal, you will get a worse deal.
If they think you might walk away from the table and this is also bad for them, you have a stronger negotiating hand.
Of course, like the nuclear deterrent, you can't declare your hand or it becomes useless.
He and Hammond are nice winners now though
I feel really sorry for May. She has had 3 terrorist attacks plus the Grenfell fire to deal with in less than a year. Brexit on her plate too, she is becoming a scapegoat for everything people want to project about
The process by which the Tory Party now gets rid of leaders it doesn't want is:
1. 15% of Conservative MPs need to send the Chairman of the 1922 Committee letters requesting a No Confidence vote. This sets the bar at 48 MPs at present.
2. That no confidence motion must be carried.
If these conditions are satisfied, a new leadership election is held in which the previous leader is barred from standing.
My guess would be that despite the subsequent problems that followed May's coronation last July, there would still be a preference for a Magic Circle succession if possible.
In this febrile atmosphere anything could happen.
I seem to remember him doing pretty well during those huge floods a few years back.
Mr. Borough, I stand to make a little. Just checked, and I laid at about 1.14 or thereabouts.
Anyway, my potential loss there will be swallowed by the winnings on the Lib Dem leadership (still talking peanuts, of course, but important to try and be green).
The only good thing is that switching our PM at this stage and so soon after an election, might convince the EU that we are all barking mad and deserve a sympathy vote in the Brexit talks.
Good plan if you don't care about a timely arrangement with the EU. If you are concerned about things like trade, prosperity and jobs you might as well take the hit. What's €60 billion against all the other damage Brexit is causing?
Which is why, OT, it might be a good idea to get the exit fee sorted before Theresa May is banished. It will get somewhat lost in the chaos, and her successor can blame it on her.
(They don't of course: that hasn't been the case for fifty years, but then the imagery is about fifty years old so the anachronism is consistent).
To paraphrase - "I agree with Mike" (how very Lib-Dem-ish of me)
If she can get through the current frothing to the Queen's speech, (and she must or there is a risk to the Conservative government in its entirety) then she must get through to summer. This enables either a little perspective and calm to settle, or it enables a smoother transition to a new PM during the recess.
Frothing and panic helps no one - country nor party. Viewed from the next election, whether there is a transition this week, in the summer or next year is probably of little consequence - even if it seems significant now.
For me, I either want her to see Brexit through or have a smooth transition in time for the outcome of the German elections - with the new PM leading on the real Brexit discussions that then take place.
The beginning of the end surely happened last Thursday, and everyone can see that (except, possibly, the occupant of Number 10). The only question is how protracted the end is. But it's been very clear that May will fight no more General Elections, and never again enjoy the sunlit uplands that spread out before her on that one fateful day that she rested atop her Welsh hill and pondered "what if?"
Ironically, had Cameron taken the same approach, we'd probably still be in the EU now.
Do people know something?
Just like the nuclear deterrent. That's why Corbyn's position is so risible - we'll have the nukes but never use them.
So far on this thread I have been twenty years out of date and fifty years out of date.
I think I am becoming Jezza Corbyn.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-40307918
Edit: sorry after the election.
10s on Rudd next PM after Tezza.
Best is to wait until later this year or next year.
QuattroWater Cannons....What we really need is the government to get a grip and show some leadership.
Maidenhead only available when May no longer leader. Davidson can't be leader if she has to wait for Maidenhead.
Asides from which Davidson doesn't want the job, apparently.
What is clear is that replacing her will be a more cabinet based government. We won't have this clique knows best nonsense again for a while.
Even if the answers are truthful?
I suppose I'd measure "beginning of the end" as the point of no return. Could May and her team have turned it around post-manifesto so as to secure a reasonable majority? Full mea culpa, Timothy falls on his sword immediately, press the reset button, aggressively get May out on the soapbox and even the debates? Possibly. Can they turn it around now? No - they can slow the fall but it's only going one way.
People believe too much of what they see in films sadly.
Karma is a bitch.
Plus it depends on how bad a deal is on the table. Surely we can both conceive of deals that are so bad that no deal and WTO is better? A £100bn bill, or £200bn or a trillion. Therefore in principle no deal can be better than a bad deal - it just depends on your definition of a bad deal.
I'm with SO, labour and the media are whipping this up, and they might not be able to control the narrative or the fall out.
I'm glad I'm staying out of london this weekend.
Mr. T, marvellous.
Mr. Pulpstar, indeed. Thank goodness the Leader of the Opposition and media haven't been stoking it up.
FPT I was joshing of course, but thanks for taking it well.
But you are right – the fake news of the hard right press has been replaced by the fake news of the Corbynista millennial left. The problem the former has is that their fake news is diminished in power whereas the left's seems to be growing. It can even sway the minds of highly intelligent Soas beauties!