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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tories must leave and give Corbyn his chance

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited June 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tories must leave and give Corbyn his chance

According to the plan, this should have been the week when Theresa May stamped her authority on her government, her Party and the country. A reshuffle to mould her ministers in her image; a Queen’s Speech to tackle the issues she cares about, in the way that she wants to tackle them; and five years in which to do that, to deliver Brexit and to tee up another term. How the gods laughed.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 885
    First like who???
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Second, like Corbyn and the WINNER
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    A non MP for leader now this, some radical thinking from David.

    But really don't want him negotiating brexit.
  • How is Corbyn suposed to govern without a majority on any issue?
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 885
    edited June 2017
    Question for the first PMQ : " The duty of all Prime Ministers is to govern for all of the country. But you are interested only in the Conservative party. You called the election in the interests of the Conservative party. Surely in the interests of the Conservative party you should now resign."
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Any leaks re: what the DUP actually want ?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    How is Corbyn suposed to govern without a majority on any issue?

    He has a majority on a soft Brexit. Also Labour will fine tune their policies.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/16/keir-starmer-labour-can-change-course-of-brexit-after-mays-election-rejection
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401

    How is Corbyn suposed to govern without a majority on any issue?

    That's his problem. But he believes he has a mandate and the Tories would need to tactically abstain on certain policies to avoid bringing Labour down prematurely.
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 885
    edited June 2017
    If Corbyn became PM he would dare the Tories to defeat him. If they did there would be an election. The Tories would have to pick the right issue. I am not sure the Tories in their current state could pick their noses.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    On topic. While what Mr Herdson proposes is probably in the interests of the Conservative Party, I doubt its in the interests of the country - tbh it reads a bit like a huge 'FU' to the electorate, to be topped off (it is presumed) with a chorus of 'Who's Sorry Now?' after a few months. While I understand the Parliamentary arithmetic of the FTPA, the optics of 'The Tories are denying the people their say' are dreadful. Don't buy it.

    Meanwhile, on the Grenfell tragedy

    German construction companies have been banned from using plastic-filled cladding, such as Reynobond PE, on towers more than 22 metres high since the 1980s when regulations were brought in to improve fire safety at residential blocks.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/jun/16/manufacturer-of-cladding-on-grenfell-tower-identified-as-omnis-exteriors?CMP=twt_gu

    Since when we've had (at least) three Conservative, three Labour and one Coalition government......while the current government has to fix the problem, apportioning blame (at this stage, until more facts are known) may be unwise.

    And:

    Theresa May prepared to order evacuation of other 1970s tower blocks if they are found to be unsafe

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/16/theresa-may-prepared-order-evacuation-1970s-tower-blocks-found

    I expect that will please the Something must be done crowd.....
  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    Sorry but don't agree with the thread header at all.
    Labour have nothing like a workable majority in the HoC, there is no guarantee that the SNP, LD and DUP could agree on very much to all support Labour at the same time.The only way that Labour would be able to get anything through Parliament is for the Conservatives to abstain on any bill brought forward.
    To step aside now would be like saying "although we wanted to run the country we have now decided that we don't and would prefer the party that came 2nd to do it for us" How is that in any way credible? What is the point of having an election if the party that wins the most seats then decides it does not want to govern? Corbyn and Labour lost the election by the only measure that matters - number of seats won.
    The Conservatives won the election and really they do not need to get any agreement with the DUP to propose a QS. It is very likely that the DUP would at worse abstain (It is not in their interest to have another election immediately) allowing the speech to get through and get government up and running. Would it be easy ? No. But it is better than running away from the problem like you are suggesting.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    Saltire said:

    Sorry but don't agree with the thread header at all.
    Labour have nothing like a workable majority in the HoC, there is no guarantee that the SNP, LD and DUP could agree on very much to all support Labour at the same time.The only way that Labour would be able to get anything through Parliament is for the Conservatives to abstain on any bill brought forward.
    To step aside now would be like saying "although we wanted to run the country we have now decided that we don't and would prefer the party that came 2nd to do it for us" How is that in any way credible? What is the point of having an election if the party that wins the most seats then decides it does not want to govern? Corbyn and Labour lost the election by the only measure that matters - number of seats won.
    The Conservatives won the election and really they do not need to get any agreement with the DUP to propose a QS. It is very likely that the DUP would at worse abstain (It is not in their interest to have another election immediately) allowing the speech to get through and get government up and running. Would it be easy ? No. But it is better than running away from the problem like you are suggesting.

    Agreed. For the Conservatives to play such a game would be irresponsible.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Saltire said:

    But it is better than running away from the problem like you are suggesting.

    Agree. Every future GE for the Tories would be dogged by 'what will you do if you win? questions. 'Will you govern this time, or will it be too hard'?

    People forget that in 1981 Thatcher too was seen as 'not up to it' and 'shortly to be replaced'. I'm not suggesting that Thatcher was in anything like the hole May has dug for herself - but febrile atmospheres make for poor decisions - ones which could haunt the Tories for decades.

    They were elected with a job to do. They should get on with it, with humility.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    We are of course all forgetting a very important piece in the electoral puzzle, that is UKIP. If Nigel is reelected leader I can see them making a lot of headway again. The question is at who's expense?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    nunuone said:

    We are of course all forgetting a very important piece in the electoral puzzle, that is UKIP. If Nigel is reelected leader I can see them making a lot of headway again. The question is at who's expense?

    Nigel was the leader in 2015. How many seats did UKIP win ?
  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    nunuone said:

    We are of course all forgetting a very important piece in the electoral puzzle, that is UKIP. If Nigel is reelected leader I can see them making a lot of headway again. The question is at who's expense?

    Don't think that there will be much of revival, for one thing the party must be running pretty low on funds now that Mr Banks has now moved on. They have a shrinking councillor base and outside of having 6 AMs in Wales they will have no meaningful representation anywhere when their MEPs lose their jobs. Having just got 1.8% of the votes at the election there will be no mandated TV coverage in future elections unless there is a dramatic upsurge in support in opinion polls.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Two well deserved George Medals in the queen's birthday honours list:

    Pc Keith Palmer has been posthumously awarded the George Medal for bravery, for his heroic actions in the Westminster terror attack.

    Pc Palmer, who was stabbed to death when he confronted attacker Khalid Masood outside the Houses of Parliament in March, "paid the ultimate price for his selfless actions", Metropolitan Police Commissioner Cressida Dick said.

    Bernard Kenny, the pensioner who was stabbed in the abdomen as he tried to save the life of Jo Cox, is to receive the George Medal for his actions.


    No major political honours because of the clash with the GE (and May's opposition to cronyism...)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Saltire said:

    nunuone said:

    We are of course all forgetting a very important piece in the electoral puzzle, that is UKIP. If Nigel is reelected leader I can see them making a lot of headway again. The question is at who's expense?

    Don't think that there will be much of revival, for one thing the party must be running pretty low on funds now that Mr Banks has now moved on. They have a shrinking councillor base and outside of having 6 AMs in Wales they will have no meaningful representation anywhere when their MEPs lose their jobs. Having just got 1.8% of the votes at the election there will be no mandated TV coverage in future elections unless there is a dramatic upsurge in support in opinion polls.
    Unless there is perceived to be a major reneging on BREXIT I think UKIP are finished.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Morning all.

    Cheers Mr Herdson for your thoughts, however, the Tories have made their bed and now they must lie in it. Handing over the reins of power to an unstable, unelected Corbyn government now, for the sake of Tory expediency would be seen as a big FU to the electorate who have just voted for them.
  • edited June 2017
    The conclusion of the header is wrong, reflecting the crisis of self-confidence in the party. A single sentence describes a Conservative-DUP deal as tawdry - why? It's the consequence of the result the public gave; besides, Corbyn could not get a QS or budget through the Commons.

    The Conservatives are supposed to be the party to govern in the National Interest. They've made their bed, they need to lie in it. They need to knock heads together; remove May; replace her with David Davis for 2 years until Brexit is done; and then he stands down and those with Leadership ambitions sell their wares.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Good Morning PBers Worldwide and in Downing Street

    Has the mob taken over yet. Is Mrs JackW safe in the marital bed .... (probably not .. :naughty: ) .... are we all for Madame La Guillotine ? .... Is Diane Abbott a modern day Madame Defarge

    Best have a cup of tea first ...
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    You can't run on a platform of "Corbyn's a terrorist loving communist" and then hand over the Brexit negotiations to him.

    In normal circumstances, it might just have been possible, but not with article 50 triggered.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880
    It hasn't even been a year since the Brexit referendum and it already feels like a completely different country now. Fuck knows where we go from here...
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    JackW said:

    .... Is Diane Abbott a modern day Madame Defarge

    And is Theresa May Miss Pross.....?
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    It's a brilliant piece by David and if the Conservative Party were being ( a) purely rational ( b) acting only in it's long term interests they would immediately follow. Fortunately for the country point (a) will trump point (b). Politics are deeply tribal.Thrre is simply no way the Conservatives are going to install Corbyn in government and then abstain to keep him there long enough for things to go wrong.

    Nevertheless David's analysis is spot on for two excellent reasons. Firstly May needs to go and might be forced to quickly. Secondly May still has a purpose which is to absorb the radiation dose from Brexit before a fresh face takes over. If the first trumps the latter her replacement might have to face the electorate in over 4 years time having absorbed the Brexit radiation dose.

    After the General Election result I'm making no predictions. But if something can't be sustained it won't be. There was a good reason the Conservatives thought they needed a large majority for the next 5 years. Buckle up.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Pretty sure the Tories should at least try to govern as a minority first!
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    Sean_F said:

    Saltire said:

    Sorry but don't agree with the thread header at all.
    Labour have nothing like a workable majority in the HoC, there is no guarantee that the SNP, LD and DUP could agree on very much to all support Labour at the same time.The only way that Labour would be able to get anything through Parliament is for the Conservatives to abstain on any bill brought forward.
    To step aside now would be like saying "although we wanted to run the country we have now decided that we don't and would prefer the party that came 2nd to do it for us" How is that in any way credible? What is the point of having an election if the party that wins the most seats then decides it does not want to govern? Corbyn and Labour lost the election by the only measure that matters - number of seats won.
    The Conservatives won the election and really they do not need to get any agreement with the DUP to propose a QS. It is very likely that the DUP would at worse abstain (It is not in their interest to have another election immediately) allowing the speech to get through and get government up and running. Would it be easy ? No. But it is better than running away from the problem like you are suggesting.

    Agreed. For the Conservatives to play such a game would be irresponsible.
    +! - It would be the height of irresponsibility - the Tories have a lousy hand but they have a duty to govern in this case.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Dura_Ace said:

    It hasn't even been a year since the Brexit referendum and it already feels like a completely different country now. Fuck knows where we go from here...

    That is what happens when one side wins by 2% and everyone goes "It's clear that the will of the people is Brexit". No, it was the will of slightly more voters. In GE2015 the will of plenty of voters was to put Ed Miliband in Downing Street. The country is divided and rightly so.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    May still has a purpose which is to absorb the radiation dose from Brexit before a fresh face takes over.

    Yep. That's her purpose now. If Brexit works out ok-ish she can resign having 'completed her mission' - if its a disaster she can be 'forced out' by a 'new broom' coming in to 'sort out her mess'......tough on her, but what did Enoch say about how political lives end?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited June 2017
    Thanks Herders for a fascinating thread. I fear you will find many of your fellow PB Tories will have thought they have woken to a nightmare scenario.

    Substantively I agree with much of your analysis. The Conservatives find themselves on the ropes and in the rope dangling in the wind waiting for the DUP to pull on the (last) legs of the near dead body of the government.

    Few don't concede that May is Prime Minister on political death row. The question is when? It appears Conservative MP's are returning to Westminster with the sound of the electorate passing sentence on their PM. The 1922 Committee performance gave the PM a few days breathing space and then Grenfell ignited the whole question of the PM and now how long the stay of execution should last. My preference is for a Conservative minority government in the short term.

    Passing the baton to Jezza is a huge risk for national reasons we all have discussed and disagreed on during the election. However the danger for the Conservatives is more acute. PM Jezza might prove more agile and popular as PM than many think. A massive short term unsustainable spending splurge followed in a year or so with with a vote of confidence that the Tories would vote for and the potential for a Labour majority government following a general election ?!?

    Anyone watched "A Very British Coup" recently ?

  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    Sean_F said:

    Saltire said:

    Sorry but don't agree with the thread header at all.
    Labour have nothing like a workable majority in the HoC, there is no guarantee that the SNP, LD and DUP could agree on very much to all support Labour at the same time.The only way that Labour would be able to get anything through Parliament is for the Conservatives to abstain on any bill brought forward.
    To step aside now would be like saying "although we wanted to run the country we have now decided that we don't and would prefer the party that came 2nd to do it for us" How is that in any way credible? What is the point of having an election if the party that wins the most seats then decides it does not want to govern? Corbyn and Labour lost the election by the only measure that matters - number of seats won.
    The Conservatives won the election and really they do not need to get any agreement with the DUP to propose a QS. It is very likely that the DUP would at worse abstain (It is not in their interest to have another election immediately) allowing the speech to get through and get government up and running. Would it be easy ? No. But it is better than running away from the problem like you are suggesting.

    Agreed. For the Conservatives to play such a game would be irresponsible.
    Not least because even Corbyn could probably manage 10 months on the jam hose without fubaring everything. The prospect of a subsequent majority is too much of a risk and too awful to contemplate.



  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    None of the Conservatives' options are good. Enabling Jeremy Corbyn to take government would be inexplicable to all their supporters who agreed that his past actions debarred him from office. It isn't as though he has a coherent plan for government anyway.

    In such circumstances the Conservatives should not try to be clever and simply do the obvious. The numbers are there for the Conservatives to form a government with passive support from the DUP, so they should do it. Theresa May isn't up to it, so should go. There isn't time for a full leadership contest because of Brexit so the plausible contenders should agree between them who should be the Prime Minister, with friendly persuasion applied to anyone who isn't playing ball. And then they should just knuckle down and get on with it.

    They've made their bed and they should lie on it.
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    This would be a case of underestimating Corbyn again. The Labour party and then the Conservatives have done that already too many times.

    He can't be allowed near power. Abrogating responsibility now to such a dangerous set of individuals would be a terrible betrayal of this country.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited June 2017

    This would be a case of underestimating Corbyn again. The Labour party and then the Conservatives have done that already too many times.

    He can't be allowed near power. Abrogating responsibility now to such a dangerous set of individuals would be a terrible betrayal of this country.

    I am inclined to agree . I don't like a DUP deal one bit, it would be better to have a LD deal but that looks impossible. The bed as Mr Meeks points out is a bed of thorns.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    the Tories have made their bed and now they must lie in it.

    They've made their bed, they need to lie in it.

    They've made their bed and they should lie on it.

    Seems to be a common theme......
  • saddosaddo Posts: 534
    Are you being serious? Yes May is bad on her feet like Gordon Brown before her, but unlike Brown she's pretty good at the governing part of government. Equally what she's also facing is a media who turned on her when the manifesto came out, especially the TV media, who are currently presenting her through a bad prism.

    Corbyn and his mob will cause immense damage being in number 10 even by being there for a day. Do you honestly want all the progress delivered by Maggie onwards chucked in a bin as is Corbyns plan and failed socialist dogma of the worst kind ruling over us.

    Just an horrific thought.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    People are thinking too tactically and not strategically. What is the main cause of the Conservatives' problems?

    It is that increasing numbers of the public are wanting change. They are looking at their lives and want more. They feel that more than thirty years of centrist consensus politics has not delivered them enough.

    Brexit opened the floodgates to change, and now they want more.

    The only people offering 'change' are Corbyn and his acolytes. It doesn't matter that his vision of change is crazy and nasty; it's change that'll help them (or so they think). It doesn't matter that his vision of change is fiscally illiterate; they don't see the fiscally restrained austerity years as having helped them.

    It's change based on hate, which is exactly what they accuse the Conservatives of. Hate of anyone richer than them. Hate of the Conservatives. Hate of the other. And the poison of that hate is spreading - just see BJO's comments from last night.

    In the process, truth gets lost. Most of the protesters about the tragedy at Grenfell Tower are not interested in the truth: they've decided on what the truth is and want retribution.

    Who runs the Conservative party is a minor tactical issue. What matters in the medium and long term is addressing this growing desire amongst the public for a change that would be disastrous not just for the Conservative party, but the country.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited June 2017

    Two well deserved George Medals in the queen's birthday honours list:

    Pc Keith Palmer has been posthumously awarded the George Medal for bravery, for his heroic actions in the Westminster terror attack.

    Pc Palmer, who was stabbed to death when he confronted attacker Khalid Masood outside the Houses of Parliament in March, "paid the ultimate price for his selfless actions", Metropolitan Police Commissioner Cressida Dick said.

    Bernard Kenny, the pensioner who was stabbed in the abdomen as he tried to save the life of Jo Cox, is to receive the George Medal for his actions.


    No major political honours because of the clash with the GE (and May's opposition to cronyism...)

    No political honours because Theresa May rescheduled the State Opening of Parliament for the second day of Royal Ascot -- so HMQ will have to get a wriggle on to avoid missing a day for the first time since her coronation.

    https://www.racingpost.com/news/state-opening-of-parliament-puts-queen-in-danger-of-missing-day-two/289446

    Is there nothing Theresa May can't screw up? Serious point -- she may be missing Nick and Fiona already. Surely they'd have (a) been able to work a calendar, and (b) handled the fallout from Grenfell Tower a lot better. Barwell is implicated, and the Cabinet are after her job. Where can she turn for advice? The Mirror's front page sums up the fatuous nature of the PM's response, contrasting May's concern for "security" with the Queen meeting survivors.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-40310518
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    Two well deserved George Medals in the queen's birthday honours list:

    Pc Keith Palmer has been posthumously awarded the George Medal for bravery, for his heroic actions in the Westminster terror attack.

    Pc Palmer, who was stabbed to death when he confronted attacker Khalid Masood outside the Houses of Parliament in March, "paid the ultimate price for his selfless actions", Metropolitan Police Commissioner Cressida Dick said.

    Bernard Kenny, the pensioner who was stabbed in the abdomen as he tried to save the life of Jo Cox, is to receive the George Medal for his actions.


    No major political honours because of the clash with the GE (and May's opposition to cronyism...)

    Is there nothing Theresa May can't screw up?
    Getting more votes & MPs than Corbyn?

  • daodaodaodao Posts: 821
    @ Mr Herdson

    An interesting analysis and view, but I disagree:

    a) The current parliamentary arithmetic wouldn't support a Labour-led administration.

    b) The Tory party owns Brexit and should be responsible for delivering it, in whatever form. May needs to own her mess and not depart until a provisional Brexit deal is on the table, with a new Tory leader to take the party into a GE as soon as practicable after 31st March 2019.

    c) The DUP are not "toxic" because of their social views, although their current leader has major questions to answer. The risk if any is appearing to take sides in NI, but it is only a matter of degree and the UK government has always taken the unionist side in the 6 counties when push comes to shove.

    A stable Corbyn-led Labour majority government, elected after the zombie Tory minority government stumbles and falls in 2 years, is preferable to the Labour party taking over now.

  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349
    Many of you are assuming that if Jezza takes over, the economy will crash and they'll see the error of their ways. Yes, there'll be a crash but don't assume Jezza will be blamed.

    The infamy of the capitalist markets, the bias of the MSM, the enemy within (and nobody does it better than the hard left), and the seven years of Tory misrule are coming home to roost. Oh, and there's always Brexit and Farmer Jones. To some fans, Venezuela is still a shining light

    Plucky Jezza is slowly rebuilding a sturdier economy, and the rich are getting their just desserts, so that's alright.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    edited June 2017

    HMQ will have to get a wriggle on to avoid missing a day for the first time since her coronation.

    She managed it under a Labour government in 2001:

    The Queen will speak in the House of Lords at approximately 11.30am on Wednesday, leaving open the possibility of her reaching the course before the first race at 2.30.

    This was the case in 2001, when a ten-minute speech was delivered to parliament before the Queen exited, changed from her ceremonial robes into her racing outfit and was taken under a police escort to Windsor Castle. She arrived at the course 15 minutes before the first race.


    I must say, the quality of Labour trolls isn't what it was.....and don't get me started on the age of policemen.....
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    CD13 said:

    Many of you are assuming that if Jezza takes over, the economy will crash and they'll see the error of their ways. Yes, there'll be a crash but don't assume Jezza will be blamed.

    The infamy of the capitalist markets, the bias of the MSM, the enemy within (and nobody does it better than the hard left), and the seven years of Tory misrule are coming home to roost. Oh, and there's always Brexit and Farmer Jones. To some fans, Venezuela is still a shining light

    Plucky Jezza is slowly rebuilding a sturdier economy, and the rich are getting their just desserts, so that's alright.

    Yup, they would blame the rich as money flowed out and then blame the media...in fact they would blame very group that gets in their way.

    In fact;

    1) Corbyn is quite old
    2) His supporters hate the media
    3) He has made massive promises he cannot keep
    4) He lost the popular vote

    It reminds me of someone....
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185

    May still has a purpose which is to absorb the radiation dose from Brexit before a fresh face takes over.

    Yep. That's her purpose now. If Brexit works out ok-ish she can resign having 'completed her mission' - if its a disaster she can be 'forced out' by a 'new broom' coming in to 'sort out her mess'......tough on her, but what did Enoch say about how political lives end?
    I have been posting the same, she is now a pinata and needs to take the hits otherwise it will just ruin another career.
  • franklynfranklyn Posts: 297
    Total extra cost of using fire resistant cladding < 5000 pounds.

    Hourly cost of Grenfell Public Inquiry > 5000 pounds per hour.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Good morning, everyone.

    I very nearly skipped the thread entirely, until I checked the author. Skimmed it instead.

    I disagree entirely. The Conservatives won the election (if anyone did) they have more votes than any viable Labour coalition. Corbyn's a far left fruitcake, a unilateralist, a friend of Hamas, a man whose best mate and Shadow Chancellor believes organising a massive march through London to protest against the result of democracy is a good idea.

    When he's lost the election by a clear margin, when he's not got the numbers for a government, to throw the keys of 10 Downing Street at the wretched creature would be a dereliction of duty.

    If May needs to go, then fine. Let May go. But advocating Corbyn, a man who only this week stated his desire for the state seizure of private property on the whim of the political class, is insane.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    franklyn said:

    Total extra cost of using fire resistant cladding < 5000 pounds.

    That's been disputed.....the cost in fees alone of changing from fire resistant cladding to flammable would exceed £5000......
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Two well deserved George Medals in the queen's birthday honours list:

    Pc Keith Palmer has been posthumously awarded the George Medal for bravery, for his heroic actions in the Westminster terror attack.

    Pc Palmer, who was stabbed to death when he confronted attacker Khalid Masood outside the Houses of Parliament in March, "paid the ultimate price for his selfless actions", Metropolitan Police Commissioner Cressida Dick said.

    Bernard Kenny, the pensioner who was stabbed in the abdomen as he tried to save the life of Jo Cox, is to receive the George Medal for his actions.


    No major political honours because of the clash with the GE (and May's opposition to cronyism...)

    Is there nothing Theresa May can't screw up?
    Getting more votes & MPs than Corbyn?

    That was when she had Nick and Fiona alongside. That's the point: since her aides were forced out to save the reputation of Sir Lynton Crosby, Theresa May has no disinterested advisors.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    franklyn said:

    Total extra cost of using fire resistant cladding < 5000 pounds.

    That's been disputed.....the cost in fees alone of changing from fire resistant cladding to flammable would exceed £5000......
    Another current casualty in this terrible disaster is the truth.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,669
    CD13 said:

    Many of you are assuming that if Jezza takes over, the economy will crash and they'll see the error of their ways. Yes, there'll be a crash but don't assume Jezza will be blamed.

    The infamy of the capitalist markets, the bias of the MSM, the enemy within (and nobody does it better than the hard left), and the seven years of Tory misrule are coming home to roost. Oh, and there's always Brexit and Farmer Jones. To some fans, Venezuela is still a shining light

    Plucky Jezza is slowly rebuilding a sturdier economy, and the rich are getting their just desserts, so that's alright.

    All parties put their spin on events, helped by any media that supports them and nowadays by social media.
    I see that you have already made up your mind, but it will be the electorate as a whole that matters.
    Before you label me, I also think that Corbyn will not be good for Britain, but if he gets the chance and fails I believe that the public will notice that.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    HaroldO said:

    CD13 said:

    Many of you are assuming that if Jezza takes over, the economy will crash and they'll see the error of their ways. Yes, there'll be a crash but don't assume Jezza will be blamed.

    The infamy of the capitalist markets, the bias of the MSM, the enemy within (and nobody does it better than the hard left), and the seven years of Tory misrule are coming home to roost. Oh, and there's always Brexit and Farmer Jones. To some fans, Venezuela is still a shining light

    Plucky Jezza is slowly rebuilding a sturdier economy, and the rich are getting their just desserts, so that's alright.

    Yup, they would blame the rich as money flowed out and then blame the media...in fact they would blame very group that gets in their way.

    In fact;

    1) Corbyn is quite old
    2) His supporters hate the media
    3) He has made massive promises he cannot keep
    4) He lost the popular vote

    It reminds me of someone....
    It's not his supporters who matter. It's the 15 per cent of the electorate who swung to Labour during the campaign.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    At least one senior figure is capturing the mood & helping set the tone:

    https://twitter.com/RoyalFamily/status/875944326446149632
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401

    Good morning, everyone.

    I very nearly skipped the thread entirely, until I checked the author. Skimmed it instead.

    I disagree entirely. The Conservatives won the election (if anyone did) they have more votes than any viable Labour coalition. Corbyn's a far left fruitcake, a unilateralist, a friend of Hamas, a man whose best mate and Shadow Chancellor believes organising a massive march through London to protest against the result of democracy is a good idea.

    When he's lost the election by a clear margin, when he's not got the numbers for a government, to throw the keys of 10 Downing Street at the wretched creature would be a dereliction of duty.

    If May needs to go, then fine. Let May go. But advocating Corbyn, a man who only this week stated his desire for the state seizure of private property on the whim of the political class, is insane.

    No-one remembers what an opposition advocates; the actions of a government can remain in the popular memory - and be election-defining - for 15 years or more.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    Two well deserved George Medals in the queen's birthday honours list:

    Pc Keith Palmer has been posthumously awarded the George Medal for bravery, for his heroic actions in the Westminster terror attack.

    Pc Palmer, who was stabbed to death when he confronted attacker Khalid Masood outside the Houses of Parliament in March, "paid the ultimate price for his selfless actions", Metropolitan Police Commissioner Cressida Dick said.

    Bernard Kenny, the pensioner who was stabbed in the abdomen as he tried to save the life of Jo Cox, is to receive the George Medal for his actions.


    No major political honours because of the clash with the GE (and May's opposition to cronyism...)

    Is there nothing Theresa May can't screw up?
    Getting more votes & MPs than Corbyn?

    That was when she had Nick and Fiona alongside. That's the point: since her aides were forced out to save the reputation of Sir Lynton Crosby, Theresa May has no disinterested advisors
    I suspect many feel that if she hadn't had Nick & Fiona the Tories would have done better.....
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,094
    edited June 2017
    Missed most of yesterday, but this is interesting:
    Danny565 said:

    (Hence why Corbyn's suggestion of requisitioning vacant properties owned by absentee landlords in Kensington might be a solution.)

    (Hope I have the blockquotes right).

    Properties owned by absentee landlords tend to have tenants in them.

    The problem with this is that the report commissioned by Mayor Sadiq demonstrates that these properties Corbyn wants to confiscate do not really exist. Sadiq campaigned on this "absentee owner landbanking empty flats" issue, and commissioned the LSE to look into it.

    The report, for the GLA, is dated May 2017. It is here:
    https://www.london.gov.uk/moderngovmb/documents/s58640/08b2b LSE Overseas Investment report.pdf

    "The project: The team was asked to look at four main research questions:
     What proportion of new residential units in London is bought by overseas buyers?
     What proportion of these units is left empty?
     To what extent do the funding models of London residential developers rely on off-plan
    sales to overseas buyers?
     What is the role of major overseas investors (such as pension funds, sovereign wealth, debt
    providers, shareholdings) in the residential development process in London? "

    and they found on point 2:
    "The proportion of units left empty: Developers estimated occupancy rates for individual schemes were generally up to 95%. There was almost no evidence of units being left entirely empty - certainly less than 1%. Units bought to be let out appear to have very high occupancy rates and indeed some are ‘over-occupied’ e.g. by students. However for those units bought as second homes, occupancy could be as little as a few weeks a year. Many such second home sales are to UK residents, not overseas buyers. "

    An invisible proportion left permanently empty, and weeks later Corbyn is still indulging himself with his myths about requisitioning flats. Is he going to evict the tenants first?

    Corbyn:
    "The ward where this fire took place is, I think the poorest ward in the whole country.
    "And properties must be found, requisitioned if necessary, in order to make sure those residents do get re-housed locally.
    "It cannot be acceptable that in London you have luxury buildings and luxury flats kept as land banking for the future while the homeless and the poor look for somewhere to live."
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40285994

    AFAICS the "poorest ward" point is a lie, and the landbanking allegation has been debunked by his own party's report.
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185

    HaroldO said:

    CD13 said:

    Many of you are assuming that if Jezza takes over, the economy will crash and they'll see the error of their ways. Yes, there'll be a crash but don't assume Jezza will be blamed.

    The infamy of the capitalist markets, the bias of the MSM, the enemy within (and nobody does it better than the hard left), and the seven years of Tory misrule are coming home to roost. Oh, and there's always Brexit and Farmer Jones. To some fans, Venezuela is still a shining light

    Plucky Jezza is slowly rebuilding a sturdier economy, and the rich are getting their just desserts, so that's alright.

    Yup, they would blame the rich as money flowed out and then blame the media...in fact they would blame very group that gets in their way.

    In fact;

    1) Corbyn is quite old
    2) His supporters hate the media
    3) He has made massive promises he cannot keep
    4) He lost the popular vote

    It reminds me of someone....
    It's not his supporters who matter. It's the 15 per cent of the electorate who swung to Labour during the campaign.
    Hehe, I was being facetious is all.
  • GeoffHGeoffH Posts: 56
    saddo said:

    Are you being serious? Yes May is bad on her feet like Gordon Brown before her, but unlike Brown she's pretty good at the governing part of government. Equally what she's also facing is a media who turned on her when the manifesto came out, especially the TV media, who are currently presenting her through a bad prism.

    Corbyn and his mob will cause immense damage being in number 10 even by being there for a day. Do you honestly want all the progress delivered by Maggie onwards chucked in a bin as is Corbyns plan and failed socialist dogma of the worst kind ruling over us.

    Just an horrific thought.

    Yes, Corbyn's mob will be disastrous but it's clear the time has come round again for the country to learn 'socialism' doesn't work. Happens every 20 years or so.

    I agree with David.
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 885

    the Tories have made their bed and now they must lie in it.

    They've made their bed, they need to lie in it.

    They've made their bed and they should lie on it.

    Seems to be a common theme......
    Yes, but it is we who have to lie in it!
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    daodao said:

    @ Mr Herdson

    An interesting analysis and view, but I disagree:

    a) The current parliamentary arithmetic wouldn't support a Labour-led administration.

    b) The Tory party owns Brexit and should be responsible for delivering it, in whatever form. May needs to own her mess and not depart until a provisional Brexit deal is on the table, with a new Tory leader to take the party into a GE as soon as practicable after 31st March 2019.

    c) The DUP are not "toxic" because of their social views, although their current leader has major questions to answer. The risk if any is appearing to take sides in NI, but it is only a matter of degree and the UK government has always taken the unionist side in the 6 counties when push comes to shove.

    A stable Corbyn-led Labour majority government, elected after the zombie Tory minority government stumbles and falls in 2 years, is preferable to the Labour party taking over now.

    Yes, but you disagree only with the conclusion. You agree with the essence of my reasoning. And you. Disagree with my conclusion because you want the opposite outcome.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    "Is this a high-risk strategy? In some senses, yes – giving the ground to your opponent always is. On the other hand, if the choice is between an unstable Labour minority government now and a potential Labour majority government elected after a zombie Tory minority government stumbles and falls in 18 months to two years, it’s a question of the lesser of two evils."

    I'm not sure that's the choice. I think what Corbyn would want to do would be to move into No 10, look prime ministerial, put forward a Queen's Speech with all kinds of popular things in it and, at the top of his honeymoon when the voters were getting used to the idea of him as PM, trigger a new election to ask for a mandate for a stable government. He may well get it.

    Corbyn could get a new election by either doing what May did and defying the opposition to vote one down or by baiting the DUP or the SNP into voting him down on a wedge issue where he was on the popular side of the wedge in England.

    I'd like to see this, but I don't think it's in the Tories' interests to let him try it. They should stop faffing around, put May out of her misery and let the new leader decide whether to muddle on with the DUP or pull the move I just described themselves.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Good morning, everyone.

    I very nearly skipped the thread entirely, until I checked the author. Skimmed it instead.

    I disagree entirely. The Conservatives won the election (if anyone did) they have more votes than any viable Labour coalition. Corbyn's a far left fruitcake, a unilateralist, a friend of Hamas, a man whose best mate and Shadow Chancellor believes organising a massive march through London to protest against the result of democracy is a good idea.

    When he's lost the election by a clear margin, when he's not got the numbers for a government, to throw the keys of 10 Downing Street at the wretched creature would be a dereliction of duty.

    If May needs to go, then fine. Let May go. But advocating Corbyn, a man who only this week stated his desire for the state seizure of private property on the whim of the political class, is insane.

    Not being either a labour or tory supporter, whilst what you say about corbyn is true a new stronger positive case needs to be developed to counter his populism. At the next election the labour party needs to be faced with a combination of positive, progressive forward looking policies and a destruction of his plans based on arguments easily understood by those most likely to fall for them. Slagging him off was not actually a success on june 8th and wont be next time.
    It would be interesting if we could have a thread on how the parties need to change to keep lunatics of all parties out of number 10
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    MattW said:

    Being blunt - is Corbyn cynical, or ignorant, or thick?

    I think he is genuine and sincere in what he believes - he's just very seriously mistaken - and in common with many on the left believes in the moral superiority of his beliefs and the inherent wickedness of those who do not share them.....
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,669

    None of the Conservatives' options are good. Enabling Jeremy Corbyn to take government would be inexplicable to all their supporters who agreed that his past actions debarred him from office. It isn't as though he has a coherent plan for government anyway.

    In such circumstances the Conservatives should not try to be clever and simply do the obvious. The numbers are there for the Conservatives to form a government with passive support from the DUP, so they should do it. Theresa May isn't up to it, so should go. There isn't time for a full leadership contest because of Brexit so the plausible contenders should agree between them who should be the Prime Minister, with friendly persuasion applied to anyone who isn't playing ball. And then they should just knuckle down and get on with it.

    They've made their bed and they should lie on it.

    Yes, that makes sense.
    They should give us Tory-Lite and govern recognising that they are a minority. They need to consult with other parties and to not rock the ship of state. I believe that that means the softest of all Brexits.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    Inclined to agree with Mr Dancer. Back in 74 when the electorate were asked a similar question the alternative was a known known and the third party was a credible possibility as both a coalition partner or a source of short-term confidence. Now the Labour Party simply hasn't got the votes for a minority Government and it's 'top people' are known unknowns, so far as governing ability is concerned.
    We should wait until Wednesday, and the details of the Queens Speech. If the Tories arrogantly proceed on the basis of their manifesto then, before long, they'll come a cropper. If they proceed on the basis of scrutiny of Brexit and on the Great Repeal Bill, then they might get themselves out of the hole they've been digging.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Herdson, as Mr. Tokyo said, Corbyn would simply present an unaffordable Queen's Speech with all sorts of populist but economically illiterate bullshit included.

    If it's voted down, he'd get kudos amongst those who pay superficial attention to politics (or are hard left). If voted through, he'd bugger up the nation's finances and perhaps cause lasting damage in other areas too.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349
    Mr Song,

    All governments make mistakes, and then make excuses. Bot some governments learn from their mistakes. The Trots don't because they never make mistakes. It's a mind-set thing.

    The Tory campaign was shite and they got what they deserved. Had the Corbyn campaign been derailed (it wasn't), do you suppose you'd have heard a single word of self-blame? It's a personality thing.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    saddo said:

    Are you being serious? Yes May is bad on her feet like Gordon Brown before her, but unlike Brown she's pretty good at the governing part of government. Equally what she's also facing is a media who turned on her when the manifesto came out, especially the TV media, who are currently presenting her through a bad prism.

    Corbyn and his mob will cause immense damage being in number 10 even by being there for a day. Do you honestly want all the progress delivered by Maggie onwards chucked in a bin as is Corbyns plan and failed socialist dogma of the worst kind ruling over us.

    Just an horrific thought.

    All the "progress" delivered by Maggie chucked in bin? Yes please! Where do I sign?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Good morning, everyone.

    I very nearly skipped the thread entirely, until I checked the author. Skimmed it instead.

    I disagree entirely. The Conservatives won the election (if anyone did) they have more votes than any viable Labour coalition. Corbyn's a far left fruitcake, a unilateralist, a friend of Hamas, a man whose best mate and Shadow Chancellor believes organising a massive march through London to protest against the result of democracy is a good idea.

    When he's lost the election by a clear margin, when he's not got the numbers for a government, to throw the keys of 10 Downing Street at the wretched creature would be a dereliction of duty.

    If May needs to go, then fine. Let May go. But advocating Corbyn, a man who only this week stated his desire for the state seizure of private property on the whim of the political class, is insane.

    The thread header was well worth reading carefully, even though I disagree with it. David Herdson's views are always worth taking very seriously.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    surbiton said:

    nunuone said:

    We are of course all forgetting a very important piece in the electoral puzzle, that is UKIP. If Nigel is reelected leader I can see them making a lot of headway again. The question is at who's expense?

    Nigel was the leader in 2015. How many seats did UKIP win ?
    Its not about seats-they took 4 million votes, we now know most of those votes were labour.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Good morning, everyone.

    I very nearly skipped the thread entirely, until I checked the author. Skimmed it instead.

    I disagree entirely. The Conservatives won the election (if anyone did) they have more votes than any viable Labour coalition. Corbyn's a far left fruitcake, a unilateralist, a friend of Hamas, a man whose best mate and Shadow Chancellor believes organising a massive march through London to protest against the result of democracy is a good idea.

    When he's lost the election by a clear margin, when he's not got the numbers for a government, to throw the keys of 10 Downing Street at the wretched creature would be a dereliction of duty.

    If May needs to go, then fine. Let May go. But advocating Corbyn, a man who only this week stated his desire for the state seizure of private property on the whim of the political class, is insane.

    It seems some PBers can't get past the fact that no party won the general election.

    The clue is that you are able to pass your priorities within the manifesto in the Queen's Speech without having to donate vast quantities of pork to the DUP.
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185

    Mr. Herdson, as Mr. Tokyo said, Corbyn would simply present an unaffordable Queen's Speech with all sorts of populist but economically illiterate bullshit included.

    If it's voted down, he'd get kudos amongst those who pay superficial attention to politics (or are hard left). If voted through, he'd bugger up the nation's finances and perhaps cause lasting damage in other areas too.

    It would mean chaos, but I doubt they would care. Currently it's all about taking power, every little fib or claim is about that.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,669

    "Is this a high-risk strategy? In some senses, yes – giving the ground to your opponent always is. On the other hand, if the choice is between an unstable Labour minority government now and a potential Labour majority government elected after a zombie Tory minority government stumbles and falls in 18 months to two years, it’s a question of the lesser of two evils."

    I'm not sure that's the choice. I think what Corbyn would want to do would be to move into No 10, look prime ministerial, put forward a Queen's Speech with all kinds of popular things in it and, at the top of his honeymoon when the voters were getting used to the idea of him as PM, trigger a new election to ask for a mandate for a stable government. He may well get it.

    Corbyn could get a new election by either doing what May did and defying the opposition to vote one down or by baiting the DUP or the SNP into voting him down on a wedge issue where he was on the popular side of the wedge in England.

    I'd like to see this, but I don't think it's in the Tories' interests to let him try it. They should stop faffing around, put May out of her misery and let the new leader decide whether to muddle on with the DUP or pull the move I just described themselves.

    "at the top of his honeymoon when the voters were getting used to the idea of him as PM, trigger a new election"
    I was wrong in thinking that Corbyn would not want the election just gone, but then I was also wrong in believing that May would get her larger majority. So, the FTPA wasn't a problem for Mat in calling the last GE, however it is still in place. Why should the Tories let him cut and run at a time of his choosing?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    If you add up all the seats on the British mainland, the Tories won 318 and others won 314 (not including Buckingham).

    Sinn Fein do not take their seats. Therefore, any agreement over government not involving the Conservatives has to involve the active support of the DUP (their passive support will do for the Tories). The odds of Corbyn getting their support on a Queen's Speech are slightly greater than the odds of Malcolm conceding there are benefits to Unionism.

    There is a case to be made that May should have approached the SNP first to (a) claim she had no choice but to work with the DUP and (b) if by some unimaginable fluke she did get a deal, kill the rather unpleasant SNP stone dead. But she chose not to.

    So while I appreciate David is still traumatised (as I warned him, a failure to take Wakefield off the loathsome and incompetent Mary Creagh would be a dismal performance) can we keep some sense of perspective please? While Corbyn's popular vote was impressive - only the 2nd Labour leader since 1970 to top 35% of the vote and just nudged it to 40% - he still came a poor second in every measurable way. In fact, in terms of seats he did very little better than Brown and worse than Kinnock. To put him in power on that result would be genuinely anti-democratic and there is no prospect of such a government surviving more than a week.

    The only reason he is looking good is because the expectations for him were very low - when 140 seats is considered par (which would have been the worst result for a major party since 1931) managing to do rather badly instead of catastrophically looks like a great triumph. Yet fundamentally little has changed. He still cannot command the Commons. He is still leaking non-metropolitan support. His political programme is still ludicrous. His associates are still toxic. And he has not magically developed administrative talent and personal intelligence.

    May will of course go at some point but it won't be yet because of the time pressures. I think she will manage 18 months.

    The real risk of this election to my mind is that it raises the serious possibility of PM Boris. If enough Tory MPs decide Fascist populism based on transparent lies and grim thuggishness was enough to get a man who is also rather elderly, dim and incompetent close to Parliament they may decide a man who is similar to corbyn but far more intelligent might be what they need. And that would be a genuine disaster.
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612
    Lets be serious, if Remain had won by 52/48 we would have had exactly the same problem - they would have claimed the question was decided, there would be no change to our status in the EU for the foreseeable future and there would have been no attempt whatsoever to do anything about the 48% who voted leave.

    EU membership is a binary choice and thus divisive. People who think that it is not a binary choice (e.g. all the soft Brexit crowd) are going to find out on Monday that this is not a reality.

    Painful as it is, the referendum was the only way to resolve this issue and the will of the majority has to be enacted.
    Freggles said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    It hasn't even been a year since the Brexit referendum and it already feels like a completely different country now. Fuck knows where we go from here...

    That is what happens when one side wins by 2% and everyone goes "It's clear that the will of the people is Brexit". No, it was the will of slightly more voters. In GE2015 the will of plenty of voters was to put Ed Miliband in Downing Street. The country is divided and rightly so.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    An extremely readable thread but I'm sure it was tongue in cheek

    Calling Corbyn's bluff is one thing. Letting the animals take over the zoo at this prticular moment wouldn't lead to an experiment in marxism it would lead to chaos.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136

    Why should the Tories let him cut and run at a time of his choosing?

    Refusing an election is a really bad look for an opposition. Even more so when you've already declined to be the government yourself.

    But like I say, if they don't want to vote for one, he could engineer getting voted down on an issue where the voters agreed with him. The Tories could of course vote that they had confidence in him, but that's an even worse look than refusing an election.
  • JonWCJonWC Posts: 285
    Enjoyed reading this article though I think David is demonstrating a bit of the famous Tory tin ear too when he somehow blames the poor result on not enough Osborne and Hammond.

    I think it was mainly due to too much Osborne and Hammond. There was nothing at all to inspire in the manifesto. Suppose the Tories had e.g. promised not to implement the cuts to the school budgets/lunches which were not even large sums of money, compared to the tens of billions that Corbyn is throwing around; just that would have saved parent votes and kept enough seats that we wouldn't be having this discussion.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Two well deserved George Medals in the queen's birthday honours list:

    Pc Keith Palmer has been posthumously awarded the George Medal for bravery, for his heroic actions in the Westminster terror attack.

    Pc Palmer, who was stabbed to death when he confronted attacker Khalid Masood outside the Houses of Parliament in March, "paid the ultimate price for his selfless actions", Metropolitan Police Commissioner Cressida Dick said.

    Bernard Kenny, the pensioner who was stabbed in the abdomen as he tried to save the life of Jo Cox, is to receive the George Medal for his actions.


    No major political honours because of the clash with the GE (and May's opposition to cronyism...)

    Is there nothing Theresa May can't screw up?
    Getting more votes & MPs than Corbyn?

    That was when she had Nick and Fiona alongside. That's the point: since her aides were forced out to save the reputation of Sir Lynton Crosby, Theresa May has no disinterested advisors.
    Somewhat off the mark.

    Crosby completely disagreed on calling the early election but was overruled. Until the final week or so he was marginalized and had advised that attacking the core vote and not offering more vision was a disaster in the making.

    The weekend before polling day his meta data put them on 302 seats. It would appear in the final days his greater involvement saved the Tories 16 seats and Jezza walking into Downing Street at some time.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Incidentally, I saw some pretty poor journalism on ITV news at ten last night.

    There was a good short segment comparing laws/regulations in the UK with other countries (sprinklers fitted as standard to new builds but not retrofitted to old ones is in line with the rest of the world; the cladding is banned or restricted elsewhere). Then there was wibbling about austerity and budget cuts to the fire brigade.

    This was after confirming the building met all current fire safety regulations. But the little segment banged on about insufficient fire safety inspections. However, as the building met all legal requirements, more inspections would've just led to more confirmation it was 'ok', no?

    The problem isn't/wasn't lack of fire brigade budget (NB that may be a problem but it's a separate kettle of monkeys), it was that the fire safety regulations for buildings are out of date. The problem isn't applying the law, it's that the law to be applied needs to be updated.

    News ended with Bradby trying to make the tragedy into some sort of symbol of austerity. Because we never had fires or tragedies before 2010. And the nation is more divided than ever. Which is a quick change, because a few weeks ago we'd never let terrorism divide us.

    A tragic accident, it seems, is justification for a political kicking, angry mobs and somehow blaming government cuts for a fridge exploding, but repeated terrorist attacks aren't justification for any division at all.

    Reminds me of the double standards on photographing dead children. Plaudits around the world if it's on the west coast of Turkey. Doesn't happen if you've been run over in Nice or killed in Manchester.

    The same news edition included condemnation of May for not turning up, then she was chased away when she did, with some bloke saying "What did she expect?"

    Well, what do we expect? Some sort of Schrodinger's Prime Minister who can both turn up and not turn up? A media that might critically examine whether a mob storming council buildings and waving SWP placards might be politically driven by the far left rather than residents?

    *sighs*

    /endrant
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    ydoethur said:

    If enough Tory MPs decide Fascist populism based on transparent lies and grim thuggishness was enough to get a man who is also rather elderly, dim and incompetent close to Parliament they may decide a man who is similar to corbyn but far more intelligent might be what they need.

    Apologies, that should of course read 'power'. I hate autocorrect...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,758
    Mr Dancer, you surely are not so unreasonable as to expect ITV to report on things like facts and the evidence rather than their heart and best intentions?

    That is most unkind if you. How would they ever get high enough ratings to chase advertising and get paid if they behaved sensibly?

    (Bonus points to anyone who recognises that quotation.)
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Two well deserved George Medals in the queen's birthday honours list:

    Pc Keith Palmer has been posthumously awarded the George Medal for bravery, for his heroic actions in the Westminster terror attack.

    Pc Palmer, who was stabbed to death when he confronted attacker Khalid Masood outside the Houses of Parliament in March, "paid the ultimate price for his selfless actions", Metropolitan Police Commissioner Cressida Dick said.

    Bernard Kenny, the pensioner who was stabbed in the abdomen as he tried to save the life of Jo Cox, is to receive the George Medal for his actions.


    No major political honours because of the clash with the GE (and May's opposition to cronyism...)

    Is there nothing Theresa May can't screw up?
    Getting more votes & MPs than Corbyn?

    That was when she had Nick and Fiona alongside. That's the point: since her aides were forced out to save the reputation of Sir Lynton Crosby, Theresa May has no disinterested advisors
    I suspect many feel that if she hadn't had Nick & Fiona the Tories would have done better.....
    That was then. This is now, and right now the PM has no disinterested advisors. Barwell is compromised and the Cabinet think -- perhaps rightly -- they could make a better fist of it.
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    Blimey - on reading this piece by David Herdson it struck me it's not only TM's confidence that has been shattered in recent weeks if conservative minded writers put out such stuff.

    While Brexit is the big journey the UK will be making in the next two years as we have seen politics is about very much more and Corbyn would just use minority government to grandstand at every opportunity. Just take one example - tuition fees. There is no way the Tories at this time could support £48bn of public money being spent scrapping the student loan system and writing off the debt of former students. Apart from the hit to public revenue there are actually far more important priorities for the exchequer. Yet Corbyn would make huge political capital out of Tory "obstructionism".

    What we would have in fact is highly politicised deadlock at home. Every setback which would continue to be blamed on the Tories. IMO a Lab majority gov't would actually become more rather than less likely.
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    Might be worth sparing a thought right now to all the people who paid £3 to make Corbyn leader and make labour unelectable!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    The current front page of the BBC News website has a picture of the protests. Three placards are visible:

    "Justice for Grenfell we want the truth"
    "Justice 4 Grenfell"
    "Time to go Theresa Tory cuts cost lives"

    Questions need asking of the wielders of all of these placards. In your mind, what shape does justice take? Would you accept the truth even if it does not match what you believe? What the **** does the third have to do with the Grenfell tragedy?

    I fear this is going to turn nasty.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Doethur, by chance, I watched this long(ish) but excellent video on rhetoric the other day, a few hours before being subjected to emotive bullshit devoid of reason on the news.

    Britain, 2017. When some bloke on Youtube talks infinitely more sense than the news of a national broadcaster.

    Incidentally, the video's well worth watching even if you disagree with me on the news:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_z3pe_OSZrQ

    Anyway, I'd better be off and get some work done.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545
    edited June 2017
    Interesting piece in a Devil's advocate way, taking us through the partisan advantages (let's not pretend a country interest) of allowing an unstable Conservative minority government give way to a no less unstable Labour one. In fact it would be a prelude to an early election that David says the people don't want. And which he implies he doesn't want, as it could result in a Labour majority lasting five years.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    So it's unanimous.

    Good thread. Bloody awful idea!
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    JackW said:

    Two well deserved George Medals in the queen's birthday honours list:

    Pc Keith Palmer has been posthumously awarded the George Medal for bravery, for his heroic actions in the Westminster terror attack.

    Pc Palmer, who was stabbed to death when he confronted attacker Khalid Masood outside the Houses of Parliament in March, "paid the ultimate price for his selfless actions", Metropolitan Police Commissioner Cressida Dick said.

    Bernard Kenny, the pensioner who was stabbed in the abdomen as he tried to save the life of Jo Cox, is to receive the George Medal for his actions.


    No major political honours because of the clash with the GE (and May's opposition to cronyism...)

    Is there nothing Theresa May can't screw up?
    Getting more votes & MPs than Corbyn?

    That was when she had Nick and Fiona alongside. That's the point: since her aides were forced out to save the reputation of Sir Lynton Crosby, Theresa May has no disinterested advisors.
    Somewhat off the mark.

    Crosby completely disagreed on calling the early election but was overruled. Until the final week or so he was marginalized and had advised that attacking the core vote and not offering more vision was a disaster in the making.

    The weekend before polling day his meta data put them on 302 seats. It would appear in the final days his greater involvement saved the Tories 16 seats and Jezza walking into Downing Street at some time.
    Texter Crosby polling was clearly off, even if subsequent accounts differ about how many dozens of seats it got wrong. The manifesto was Nick and Fiona. The presidential campaign, strong and stable, and pouring decades-old ordure on Corbyn were down to Sir L. There is plenty of blame to go round.

    Crosby is clearly right about not attacking the core vote. Older readers will remember my prescient if untimely analysis of the Ken Clarke's part in the 1997 defeat, while Blair and Clegg need no comment. Unremittingly negative campaigns with no positive vision almost lost the union and did lose Brexit. We are blessed with politicians who do not understand politics.

    But this is ancient history: the election was over a week ago. Right now, Theresa May is in a bind.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    The current front page of the BBC News website has a picture of the protests. Three placards are visible:

    "Justice for Grenfell we want the truth"
    "Justice 4 Grenfell"
    "Time to go Theresa Tory cuts cost lives"

    Questions need asking of the wielders of all of these placards. In your mind, what shape does justice take? Would you accept the truth even if it does not match what you believe? What the **** does the third have to do with the Grenfell tragedy?

    I fear this is going to turn nasty.

    I still dont understand when in the early hours of the disaster she did not turn, check the emergency services had adequate resources and then goneon to see what the survivors required. She could have then gone back to Downing street announced the public enquiry and set up a multi agency team to deal with the aftermath. Now thats leadership.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,013
    A fascinating an unexpected thread from David.

    May must go. Its a particular kind of political perversion that insists she has a mandate or authority and must stay. For a whole list of reasons she must go, and with respect to David's piece many of those reasons are to protect the Conservative Party:
    1. She is incapable of walking and talking, widely eviscerated over almost everything now with the "can't meet people because security" fiasco enough to kill a normal politician in normal times. Any alternative leader would be an improvement.
    2. She is incapable of binding her party. OK so they won't rebel against her to vote her government down. But they will on every other issue. So theoretical majorities with the DUP don't exist in practice
    3. We need to negotiate Brexit. She can't negotiate a deal with the DUP who politically have to back her anyway. How is she supposed to secure anything from Europe?

    The question isn't whether she goes, its when. And whilst the "linger on to conference" or "linger on to finish Brexit" dreams appeal to some, it can't possibly work when she is a walking political disaster. At the same time another leadership election would re-expose the vast personality flaws of BoJo or Amber Rudd or the lack of personality of Hammond. So it would need to be a coronation and that would need to be immediate.

    The lesson of history is clear. In 1992 John Major's government had a majority of 22. And was incapable of governing, defeated endlessly with something as minor (compared to Brexit) as Maastrict. The notion of May's government, with or without the DUP, leading this nation now through the increasing societal divisions and Brexit is utterly absurd. And my challenge to PB Tories is this - you KNOW its absurd. You are intelligent people. You know politics. This is untenable and damages your party at a fundamental level.

    Stepping aside for Corbyn I get - you renew in opposition. But you can't do that and won't do that. Nor can you form a government of national unity as we in Labour won't back that as we aren't united. Your best option is a grey man with steady hands - Hammond. Or an election in the Autumn. Either way, she's finished. Or you're finished.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,225
    Good thread, David, thank you very much. Don't agree with all of it but May definitely has to go. She is beyond help and is damaging her Country as well as the Party. Best to get a new Leader in and play it day by day from there.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    nichomar said:

    The current front page of the BBC News website has a picture of the protests. Three placards are visible:

    "Justice for Grenfell we want the truth"
    "Justice 4 Grenfell"
    "Time to go Theresa Tory cuts cost lives"

    Questions need asking of the wielders of all of these placards. In your mind, what shape does justice take? Would you accept the truth even if it does not match what you believe? What the **** does the third have to do with the Grenfell tragedy?

    I fear this is going to turn nasty.

    I still dont understand when in the early hours of the disaster she did not turn, check the emergency services had adequate resources and then goneon to see what the survivors required. She could have then gone back to Downing street announced the public enquiry and set up a multi agency team to deal with the aftermath. Now thats leadership.
    Perhaps, in the early hours of the disaster, the last thing the emergency services needed was politicians and their coterie tramping about. The best place for her to be as a situation unfolds is at a communications nexus. The emergency services can get hold of her better there than at the scene.

    But this shows two roles a PM must have; they must be able to be detached, but also to empathise with the public. There was a very good discussion about the latter on here the other day.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    Afraid I cannot agree.

    And I'd be cancelling my Tory party membership immediately if they willingly gave up the keys to No. 10 to a hard leftist agitator like Corbyn.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    JackW said:

    Two well deserved George Medals in the queen's birthday honours list:

    Pc Keith Palmer has been posthumously awarded the George Medal for bravery, for his heroic actions in the Westminster terror attack.

    Pc Palmer, who was stabbed to death when he confronted attacker Khalid Masood outside the Houses of Parliament in March, "paid the ultimate price for his selfless actions", Metropolitan Police Commissioner Cressida Dick said.

    Bernard Kenny, the pensioner who was stabbed in the abdomen as he tried to save the life of Jo Cox, is to receive the George Medal for his actions.


    No major political honours because of the clash with the GE (and May's opposition to cronyism...)

    Is there nothing Theresa May can't screw up?
    Getting more votes & MPs than Corbyn?

    That was when she had Nick and Fiona alongside. That's the point: since her aides were forced out to save the reputation of Sir Lynton Crosby, Theresa May has no disinterested advisors.
    Somewhat off the mark.

    Crosby completely disagreed on calling the early election but was overruled. Until the final week or so he was marginalized and had advised that attacking the core vote and not offering more vision was a disaster in the making.

    The weekend before polling day his meta data put them on 302 seats. It would appear in the final days his greater involvement saved the Tories 16 seats and Jezza walking into Downing Street at some time.
    Are you sure? The messaging had Crosby written all over it. It was Zak Mk2. Different subject same style. Political advertising needed to move on with a more nuanced electorate but that seems to have passed Crosby by. A simple message oft repeated doesn't cut it anymore.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,669
    nielh said:

    Might be worth sparing a thought right now to all the people who paid £3 to make Corbyn leader and make labour unelectable!

    Yes, poor dears, they probably need counselling.
    Also applies to Margaret Beckett and Sadiq Khan.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited June 2017
    Not much comment this morning on a fantastic rugby win .... for Scotland

    Australia 19 : 24 Scotland

    :smiley:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/rugby-union/40278549
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    nichomar said:

    The current front page of the BBC News website has a picture of the protests. Three placards are visible:

    "Justice for Grenfell we want the truth"
    "Justice 4 Grenfell"
    "Time to go Theresa Tory cuts cost lives"

    Questions need asking of the wielders of all of these placards. In your mind, what shape does justice take? Would you accept the truth even if it does not match what you believe? What the **** does the third have to do with the Grenfell tragedy?

    I fear this is going to turn nasty.

    I still dont understand when in the early hours of the disaster she did not turn, check the emergency services had adequate resources and then goneon to see what the survivors required. She could have then gone back to Downing street announced the public enquiry and set up a multi agency team to deal with the aftermath. Now thats leadership.
    Certainly. Why not now or tomorrow and please tell me there is no artificial delay to jam it into the Queen's speech. I know Gordon Brown took days to announce his favourite biscuit but the stakes are higher here.
This discussion has been closed.