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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The pressure ratchets up on beleaguered Theresa
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The pressure ratchets up on beleaguered Theresa
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Even watching her try is torture at the moment.
"Cladding using a composite aluminium panel with a polyethylene core would be non-compliant with current Building Regulations guidance.
"This material should not be used as cladding on buildings over 18m in height.
"We cannot comment on what type of cladding was used on the building - this will be subject to investigations."
Did they actually believe her? Or was this one of those "There Is No Alternative" moments where they just decided to hunker down, and - for now - ride the coming storm?
It wasn't. The misjudgement was the campaign itself. Changing one or two small things would have made it a moderate clusterf*** instead of a massive clusterf*** and she'd have increased her majority, albeit to something like 30 or 40 rather than the 100+ we were talking about last month.
This is getting increasingly annoying. We have a government in paralysis with the Brexit negotiations starting next week. We cannot go on like this.
It's about time the media delved into the SWP being in partnership with Corbyn and McDonnell. Disgraceful negligence in their coverage.
To call an election then run scared of the debates and from voters was absurd. Nobody likes or respects a chickenhawk. Brown lost respect when he chickened out of an election. She managed to chicken out of an election that was actually happening!
Put in the manifesto some affordable nice things to vote for. This manifesto was all stick no carrot.
Take the fight to Corbyn hard on his policies and not just let them stand unchallenged assuming people would figure out by themselves what is wrong.
Actually, no. The manifesto was the incredible misjudgement. All of the polling evidence backs that up.
But here he is, basking in glory and walking on water, lionised by the PLP, after trying desperately to force him out. He is the same person then as he is now.
British politics is in tatters at the moment, on all sides.
It's a total shambles, as bad as the days of Brown but without a Mandelson to get a grip. The equivalent is too busy having fun and playing with a newspaper. Much of this will be fixed when we have a leader who can put a team together that backs him or her unequivocally. We don't have that right now.
But that doesn't make it right to accuse him of orchestrating these demonstrations without evidence, any more than it's right to accuse Theresa May of being somehow responsible for the deaths in the Grenfell Tower without evidence.
Labour lost last week. Many of their supporters don't seem to have realised yet.
"Vote for us - but if Labour's 56 seats behind, we'll let them govern anyway!"
I've got a better one: Never, Never, Never!
Having an appealing manifesto would have put the Tories on a par with Labour. That might not have been enough in itself to shift that many votes.
As to challenging Corbyn, there can't have been anyone since Oswald Mosely who has got a worse press. There was plenty of stuff attacking him. One poster on here meticulously reported the clicks on a Facebook attack video on Corbyn. How much effect did it all have? It was just white noise which most of us just tuned out.
The Tory campaign was a bit rubbish in a few details, but it was certainly well funded and had most of the impact that the deployment of a cheque book can be expected to achieve.
Compare that to what it was up against. Labour's half a million members have been written off by some on here, but they surely must have had some impact. Given the way the results surprised everyone is it so far fetched to suppose that it was the ground campaign that was different this time? It is certainly what the New Statesman is suggesting.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/06/almost-every-constituency-we-targeted-we-won-inside-story-labour-s-ground
It may have had nothing to do with Theresa May's shortcomings.
Maybe there simply isn't any route back to power for the Tories whoever leads them. Labour may now be too strong to beat.
1. Corbyn can form a government. No, he can't. He's 60 seats short of being able to do so, and not even the support of Lucas, the SNP and Lib Dems would get him over the line. This is the stuf of fantasy. Corbyn will not be able to form a viable government unless he wins more seats in a new election.
2. That the next election can happen 'at any time'. This is very, very unlikely. It would require the DUP to actively bring down the government by voting against it, along with all the other parties. In the current circumstances, there looks to be nothing that would trigger such a move. That's not to say it can't happen, but in the short term that just isn't a likely scenario.
The government will fall when one of two things happens: either the DUP take their toys home or the majority is removed through by elections. You'd need about 5 seats to change hands from the Tories/DUP to opposition parties for that to happen. That's certainly a possibility, but the Tories probably have at least a couple of years as a cushion before they have to worry about that.
This parliament is probably likely to last for a couple of years on the numbers, with an outside chance of lasting for the full term. The key thing here is that gives the government enough time to get Brexit out of the way, which then significantly alters the political landscape and narrative again.
The Tories should keep their head down, get Brexit out of the way, replace May when that's done and dusted and then have a leadership election at a time when a new election is more likely to come about.
Our training instructor is an ex-firefighter and last night he went out with his ex-colleagues, several of whom were at Grenfell. From what they said, it looks like the deaths will be well into three figures. One of the big problems re numbers / identification is that apparently a lot of the flats are illegally sub-let so it is not entirely sure who was in there and there was probably overcrowding of flats. Absolute catastrophe.
In our group post-class the general consensus, from both Labour and Conservative supporters, was that May was being unfairly blamed for what was happening.
Corrected that for you.
It really is pretty simple.
We just need to be better at it!
They overstated the position but, as best as we can tell, the Tories were well ahead. According to Jim Messina his analysis had the Tories over 400 seats at that point. Shortly before the election he had them at 304. The article from the Evening Standard yesterday is clearly based on advice from the experts who were ignored or sidelined: http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/revealed-how-theresa-mays-two-aides-seized-control-of-the-tory-campaign-to-calamitous-effect-a3566796.html
Such a bloody tragedy. A manifesto that cost about 80 seats - the difference between Thatcher 1983 and May 2017. Too fucking sad hilarious for words.
Corrected that for you.
Spot on
PB Tories in denial is a site to behold
The rest of us have moved on and they still cant work out they need some actual policies rather than name calling.
Long may it continue
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/labours-new-kensington-mp-was-on-housing-scrutiny-committee-a3566661.html
Incidentally, what does @HYUFD stand for?
I'm starting to feel genuinely sorry for Mrs May. She didn't start the fire even if the appropriately named 'Ash' would have you believe she did.
But more importantly I'm becoming ever more convinced that she's the last bulwark between the Boris faction and the Ash one and both are far more dangerous than any lack of empathy by Theresa.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/11/life-comes-at-you-fast-these-days-doesnt-it-mrs-may/
And
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/876009779285700608
As for Mrs May, she is a hostage to incumbency over the fire. I guess the incumbent takes the spoils or the s*** in equal measure.
For Mrs May who is known to be a little agricultural when it comes to dealing with the public, the travails of the last 48 hours suggest her (new?) advisors would appear to be as piss poor as her last lot!
If it had been done competently it would have made a lot of sense.
Interesting line about a potential new team in 2018. I remember hearing a big group (Audi, maybe? I forget) was perhaps interested some time ago.
Such a bloody tragedy. A manifesto that cost about 80 seats - the difference between Thatcher 1983 and May 2017. Too fucking sad hilarious for words.
Corrected that for you.
Spot on
PB Tories in denial is a site to behold
The rest of us have moved on and they still cant work out they need some actual policies rather than name calling.
Long may it continue
Indeed BJO. It's hilarious! A few like TSE speak sense though!
Southern Railway yesterday offered train drivers a salary of £75,000 a year in an attempt to settle their long-running dispute. Some 1,000 drivers were offered a bumper pay rise equivalent to an increase of 23.8 per cent over four years. It would see basic salaries for a 35-hour, four-day week, rise from £49,001 to £60,683.
Anyone who has worked for a large organisation knows that the person/people who have just resigned or been fired are always to blame for everything that went wrong beforehand. It's the oldest game in the book.
All the anecdotal reports are that CCHQ continued to believe it was heading for a large majority, right up until the exit poll. Last week's Sunday papers were full of detail about the sorts of targeting decisions been made up until the last minute. The idea that the Tories' chief modellist was projecting a lost majority and that it still came as the most abject shock and surprise when it happened would appear most incredible. More likely, as is natural for any forecaster, he hedged his forecast with a suitable 'but I could be wrong' caveat and (just like some posters here!) he is now resting on the caveat as evidence of his having foreseen imminent doom.
Theresa needs to be grown up show leadership and call it off. Another Referendum if necessary but in preference a letter to the EU apologising for wasting everyone's time and begging to be reinstated on existing terms. Otherwise When the shit hits the fan on this Brexit there will be riots and demonstrations the like of which we haven't seen. They'll make the Days of Danny Cohn Bendit Tariq Ali and the '68 riots at the Sorbonne look like a pillow fight.
From what ive heard the PCP is supportive and wants her to stay.
I'd take a few riots over a thousand years of a boot stomping on a human face, any day.
The same goes for Corbyn. It is all well and good for him to troll from the sidelines. The first hint of taking over and he would require replacement trousers!
Just imagine how you'd be feeling if we had a referendum on Gay Marriage, 52% voted for it but because a few of the 48 against it wouldnt shut up, the govt decided it would be too much trouble so binned it before one same sex couple were wed.
I am generally in favour of freedom of movement but hopefully we will make an exception for you and your fellow travellers.
Although we don't know the detailed reasons for the tradegy, we do know the refurbishment was done for the residents and the budget was not cheap.
Concern is growing within the Conservative party over Theresa May’s handling of the Grenfell Tower fire, with some fearing it could become “her poll tax moment”.
Several of the prime minister’s allies defended her response to the tragedy on Saturday after she was criticised for her initial failure to meet residents and stilted interviews that left many questions unanswered.
They said there was an unfair narrative that did not reflect efforts she had been making behind the scenes. “There is a story out there and facts are selected to fit it,” said one.
There is concern, however, among Tory MPs that the disaster has again placed the spotlight on May’s difficulties in demonstrating empathy and responding on her feet, weaknesses that were exposed during the election campaign....
...Another Tory MP compared May to Gordon Brown, whose mechanical style and insistence to be across all detail allowed him to be a successful chancellor but did not translate well once he was prime minister.
“She is a bit like Brown. What appear to be her strengths actually contain her weaknesses as well, and she finds it very difficult to publicly display her emotions,” the MP said. “That is not to say she doesn’t have a sense of humour or that she can’t cry. But she is adrift at present.”
https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/17/shes-adrift-tories-concerned-over-theresa-mays-grenfell-response
https://twitter.com/RupaHuq/status/876092375319359489
That was one point out of 20-odd.