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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,986
    Hammond says he does not necessarily want to stay in customs union but does want to avoid tariffs and bureaucracy for business and we may have a transition period once we leave and we can still negotiate deals especially on financial services with other countries even if we stay in the customs union for the time being
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,612
    malcolmg said:

    Roger said:

    Nothing like the Tory party for kicking someone when they're down. If they got behind her and stopped plotting she would be much more able to deal with the current crises.

    It takes a lot for me to sympathise with a brexiteer in trouble but when I see people trying to crucify her for not 'doing' sympathy properly I start feeling queasy. Remember they did the same to HRH when Diana died and a more excruciating example of tawdry mob rule I can't remember seeing.

    Get the tumbrils out , plenty of Tories to fill them
    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/foodbank-nurse-claire-austin-abused-while-eating-in-restaurant-1-4478957
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,986

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:

    https

    Those are astounding numbers. We must now countenance the possibility that public opinion swings sharply away from Brexit, during the negotiations
    They are misleading numbers, and misleading questions.

    It's Peston, Islam, and the bitter-ender Remainers that are sharing these as part of their lobbying effort: they smell blood.
    I think the mood is changing. I cannot stand Faisal Islam but my own thoughts have changed mainly because the future of Airbus is under threat in North Wales. My son in law along with many thousands in North Wales and Cheshire depend on these high quality jobs
    Yes, you can feel a second referendum coming.

    There is a mix of betting opportunities, if with a question of exactly what type of referendum would qualify under a 'yes' bet in each case:

    "Next Country to hold an EU In/Out Referendum" - UK 6.6 @ BFEx
    "EU Referendum before 2020" - Yes 3.2 @ BFEx
    "EU In/Out Referendum before 2019" - Yes 2.72 (a poor bet given no. 2!)

    I also notice there is 1/6 on BFSB (1.14 on BFEx) for No Welsh Indy Referendum before 2020. OK, it's three years away, but a surefire 16% profit, I'd have thought!

    Keir Starmer has just ruled out a second EU referendum from the Labour perspective on Marr as it could not take place until we have left the EU. He also said he wanted to get the advantages of the single market without full membership of it
    Don't know if this is true,won't labour need to leave the EU for they nationalisation programme which would be against EU law ?
    Yes which is why Corbyn wants us to leave the EU and single market so he and McDonnell can then pursue socialism
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,871

    Hammond's either going to get himself pilloried for being wrong or someone is going to prison.

    Slightly odd phrasing: 'understands that'. Surely you'd make certain before saying such a thing?

    Just trying to get blame onto someone else, never able to just admit it was down to government ( all varieties ) indifference to the peasants. Lots of empty words and always after every disaster that could have been avoided if some money was spent on important stuff, you get the same old war cry , "lessons will be learned" and we will put the next report in the bin just like all the others.
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,120

    tlg86 said:

    Blimey, Hammond's just said he understands that this cladding is banned here.

    I thought I heard that too.
    There was a government statement yesterday that the type of cladding said to have been used was banned for buildings of that height, though it reserved judgment as to whether the cladding had actually been of that type.
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    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    Commentator on Marr asking why helicopters were not spraying water over the buildings and rescuing people. Apparently the fire service banned the helicopters due to downdraft problems which seems obvious when you think about

    Flying helicopters at night, in the middle of a city around a tower block on fire?. Sounds fun.
    Surely helicopters are pretty useless at firefighting, considering how little they can lift?

    I guess we really need a couple of these:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beriev_Be-200

    Although using them in urban areas is quite problematic too. No good answers.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,280
    surbiton said:

    Commentator on Marr asking why helicopters were not spraying water over the buildings and rescuing people. Apparently the fire service banned the helicopters due to downdraft problems which seems obvious when you think about

    Flying helicopters at night, in the middle of a city around a tower block on fire?. Sounds fun.
    Even in the middle of the night, an inferno is clearly visible. More visible than during the day.

    I take it you have not seen helicopters dousing fire in LA, for example.
    I think I would believe Twisted Fire Stopper before you.

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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,986
    Hammond says 100 000 migration target has to go hand in hand with increasing home grown skills and not in a way that will damage the economy and that the election campaign should have put more focus on the Tory economic record and criticism of Corbyn's economics
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,973
    tlg86 said:

    Blimey, Hammond's just said he understands that this cladding is banned here.

    But was it banned at the time it was installed or the renovations planned?

    If it was banned, this might leave only a few options:
    *) Architect's mistake.
    *) Installer's mistake.
    *) Supplier's mistake.

    And a massive mistake from the building inspectors.

    *If* it is a mistake by the architect (and that's big conditional), then there would have been plenty of opportunities for it to be picked up: the suppliers, the installers and especially the inspectors might have had opportunities to realise it could not be used.

    Sadly, this might fit in rather well with what I've been saying about building inspections here in the UK ...
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    scotslassscotslass Posts: 912
    HAMMOND now sticking election knife into Theresa May. It all over and PB Tories should recognise the inevitabre.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    HYUFD said:

    Hammond says 100 000 migration target has to go hand in hand with increasing home grown skills and not in a way that will damage the economy and that the election campaign should have put more focus on the Tory economic record and criticism of Corbyn's economics

    The Tory election campaign has started. Official.
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    scotslassscotslass Posts: 912
    inevitabre is a combination of inevitable and macabre - the fall of May.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,189
    Chris said:

    tlg86 said:

    Blimey, Hammond's just said he understands that this cladding is banned here.

    I thought I heard that too.
    There was a government statement yesterday that the type of cladding said to have been used was banned for buildings of that height, though it reserved judgment as to whether the cladding had actually been of that type.
    I wish the news would report such statements. That's really important information.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,986
    edited June 2017

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    May will definitely go but on a practical basis even if she resigned as Tory leader tomorrow she would still have to stay PM for months while the resultant Tory leadership race is decided by the MPs and then the membership. As Iain Dale has also just said on Marr if she is ousted as PM without resigning in an orderly manner that increases the likelihood of another general election in a few months which the Tories would lose and Jeremy Corbyn would become PM

    Theresa May became Tory leader in about a fortnight. It simply is not true that a leadership election need take months or even one month.
    It does if the membership are involved as they almost certainly will have to be this time. In 2001 and 2005 ID'S and Clarke and Cameron and Davis spent months doing hustings with party members before tye result was announced
    Based on Theresa May's election, you'd be looking at around a fortnight for MPs to whittle the field down to two. Even if one is not prevailed on to drop out, it need only take another week to consult the members (or at least the ones not on holiday). The 1922 committee had scheduled two months (before Andrea Leadsom withdrew) but there really is no need in this age of Facebook, Youtube and Twitter. However, even with two months, the new PM could be in place in time for the German elections in September and party conferences beyond that.

    Here is the Commons paper on Conservative leadership elections.
    http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/SN01366
    If you are consulting members they will demand full hustings from Scotland to the South West before they decide not only who will be their next leader but who will be PM and rightly so. Those hustings will take months to complete not to mention it will take far longer than a week to get ballots out to members and returned
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,120
    Here is the BBC report, on the live news page yesterday:

    12:31
    17 Jun
    There has been speculation over whether the cladding used to cover Grenfell Tower contributed to the speed at which the fire spread.

    BBC Newsnight has reported that the exterior cladding on Grenfell Tower, added in 2015, had a polyethylene - or plastic - core instead of a more fireproof alternative.

    Now comes a statement from the Department for Communities and Local Government: "Cladding using a composite aluminium panel with a polyethylene core would be non-compliant with current Building Regulations guidance.

    "This material should not be used as cladding on buildings over 18m in height.

    "We cannot comment on what type of cladding was used on the building - this will be subject to investigations."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-england-london-40239008
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,189
    McDonnell on Sky News.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,871

    malcolmg said:

    Roger said:

    Nothing like the Tory party for kicking someone when they're down. If they got behind her and stopped plotting she would be much more able to deal with the current crises.

    It takes a lot for me to sympathise with a brexiteer in trouble but when I see people trying to crucify her for not 'doing' sympathy properly I start feeling queasy. Remember they did the same to HRH when Diana died and a more excruciating example of tawdry mob rule I can't remember seeing.

    Get the tumbrils out , plenty of Tories to fill them
    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/foodbank-nurse-claire-austin-abused-while-eating-in-restaurant-1-4478957
    Yes usual Tory working as agency nurse and ,milking the public purse , claimed to be using foodbanks. Just back from luxury holiday in USA , out munching at top class restaurant. Sounds like calling her a Tory liar for lying about using foodbanks sounds like the absolute truth to me.
    Not surprised to see you muck stirring though, don't see much comment about your great pal Theresa coming from you lately.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    surbiton said:

    Commentator on Marr asking why helicopters were not spraying water over the buildings and rescuing people. Apparently the fire service banned the helicopters due to downdraft problems which seems obvious when you think about

    Flying helicopters at night, in the middle of a city around a tower block on fire?. Sounds fun.
    Even in the middle of the night, an inferno is clearly visible. More visible than during the day.

    I take it you have not seen helicopters dousing fire in LA, for example.
    I think I would believe Twisted Fire Stopper before you.

    Of course, you would. Apart from being a fire-fighter, he is also a Brexiter. It is the second bit which makes him more believeable to you.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LXFA5aVB3vI
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,612
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Roger said:

    Nothing like the Tory party for kicking someone when they're down. If they got behind her and stopped plotting she would be much more able to deal with the current crises.

    It takes a lot for me to sympathise with a brexiteer in trouble but when I see people trying to crucify her for not 'doing' sympathy properly I start feeling queasy. Remember they did the same to HRH when Diana died and a more excruciating example of tawdry mob rule I can't remember seeing.

    Get the tumbrils out , plenty of Tories to fill them
    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/foodbank-nurse-claire-austin-abused-while-eating-in-restaurant-1-4478957
    don't see much comment about your great pal Theresa coming from you lately.
    Nor you about Nicola who had a worse campaign
  • Options
    surbiton said:

    Commentator on Marr asking why helicopters were not spraying water over the buildings and rescuing people. Apparently the fire service banned the helicopters due to downdraft problems which seems obvious when you think about

    Flying helicopters at night, in the middle of a city around a tower block on fire?. Sounds fun.
    Even in the middle of the night, an inferno is clearly visible. More visible than during the day.

    I take it you have not seen helicopters dousing fire in LA, for example.
    I don't know anything about fire fighting helicopters. It's not something we do. I'm merely commenting on how ludicrous it is to expect helicopters to be any use around a towering inferno, at night, in a city. The thermals alone would play havoc with controlling the aircraft, and have you ever been under a helicopter at low level? I don't think the flames from that cladding needed anymore fanning.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,189
    @Chris - Thanks for that. So either a load of people are going to prison or the fire proof properties of another form of cladding will be brought into serious question.
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    May will definitely go but on a practical basis even if she resigned as Tory leader tomorrow she would still have to stay PM for months while the resultant Tory leadership race is decided by the MPs and then the membership. As Iain Dale has also just said on Marr if she is ousted as PM without resigning in an orderly manner that increases the likelihood of another general election in a few months which the Tories would lose and Jeremy Corbyn would become PM

    Theresa May became Tory leader in about a fortnight. It simply is not true that a leadership election need take months or even one month.
    It does if the membership are involved as they almost certainly will have to be this time. In 2001 and 2005 ID'S and Clarke and Cameron and Davis spent months doing hustings with party members before tye result was announced
    Based on Theresa May's election, you'd be looking at around a fortnight for MPs to whittle the field down to two. Even if one is not prevailed on to drop out, it need only take another week to consult the members (or at least the ones not on holiday). The 1922 committee had scheduled two months (before Andrea Leadsom withdrew) but there really is no need in this age of Facebook, Youtube and Twitter. However, even with two months, the new PM could be in place in time for the German elections in September and party conferences beyond that.

    Here is the Commons paper on Conservative leadership elections.
    http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/SN01366
    No, if you are consulting members they will demand full hustings from Scotland to the South West before they decide not only who will be their next leader but who will be PM and rightly so. Those hustings will take months to complete
    Even last time, when Theresa May was elected, hustings and voting by the membership was scheduled to take two months -- so they could still be over before September and the German elections, let alone the party conferences. The idea that a party leadership contest need take longer than a full general election is absurd but even if it does, there is still time.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,204
    Scott_P said:
    It was inevitable in my opinion. But I am remainiac or whatever today's term of abuse is.
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    MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    scotslass said:

    inevitabre is a combination of inevitable and macabre - the fall of May.

    "Inevitabre" - v. good. You should add that one to your autocorrect :D
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,871
    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    Commentator on Marr asking why helicopters were not spraying water over the buildings and rescuing people. Apparently the fire service banned the helicopters due to downdraft problems which seems obvious when you think about

    Flying helicopters at night, in the middle of a city around a tower block on fire?. Sounds fun.
    Even in the middle of the night, an inferno is clearly visible. More visible than during the day.

    I take it you have not seen helicopters dousing fire in LA, for example.
    I think I would believe Twisted Fire Stopper before you.

    Of course, you would. Apart from being a fire-fighter, he is also a Brexiter. It is the second bit which makes him more believeable to you.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LXFA5aVB3vI
    F***s sake they had to send to Surrey for a key bit of equipment as none in London , Surrey the capital of Tower blocks no less, so what chance of them having a helicopter. With this mob I bet we have more fire chiefs than we do fire engines
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    MJWMJW Posts: 1,347
    If the public does turn against Brexit, which seems vaguely possible the longer time ticks away without much success in negotiations, and if it begins to be seen as a shambles, then the Brexiters (not those who voted for it - those politicians who advocated it) will only have themselves to blame. The Gove and Boris knife fight ruled out any possibility of a Brexiteer becoming PM, and thus being able to set overall strategy. May embraced it but has been so opaque that a year on no one is clear quite what we want that we could plausibly get. Boris seems to have done little except annoy a few Europeans, Fox has been Fox, and Davis seems woefully unprepared every time he takes forensic questioning. They called an election they stuffed up, throwing any strategy into further chaos, oh and the chief cheerleaders, people like Hannan and Farage have moved on to lucrative gigs carping from the sidelines rather than attempting to up their political involvement.

    If you win, it's your job to deliver. Many of these oafs couldn't deliver a pizza.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,973
    RoyalBlue said:

    Commentator on Marr asking why helicopters were not spraying water over the buildings and rescuing people. Apparently the fire service banned the helicopters due to downdraft problems which seems obvious when you think about

    Flying helicopters at night, in the middle of a city around a tower block on fire?. Sounds fun.
    Surely helicopters are pretty useless at firefighting, considering how little they can lift?

    I guess we really need a couple of these:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beriev_Be-200

    Although using them in urban areas is quite problematic too. No good answers.
    Firefightng helicopters are hardly unknown:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aerial_firefighting#Helicopters
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helitack

    I'm guessing they're more flexible as they can pick up water from sources a plane cannot, and therofre spend less time in transit.


    I'm guessing the thermals around a forest fire would be rather different (e.g. more diffuse) to those around a very tall building.
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    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    Commentator on Marr asking why helicopters were not spraying water over the buildings and rescuing people. Apparently the fire service banned the helicopters due to downdraft problems which seems obvious when you think about

    Flying helicopters at night, in the middle of a city around a tower block on fire?. Sounds fun.
    Even in the middle of the night, an inferno is clearly visible. More visible than during the day.

    I take it you have not seen helicopters dousing fire in LA, for example.
    I think I would believe Twisted Fire Stopper before you.

    Of course, you would. Apart from being a fire-fighter, he is also a Brexiter. It is the second bit which makes him more believeable to you.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LXFA5aVB3vI
    Widely used in forest fires as are planes, spain has just lent portugal two to help fight their forest fires. If they exist can we have a picture of them being used on tall buidings in cities please
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,871
    edited June 2017

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Roger said:

    Nothing like the Tory party for kicking someone when they're down. If they got behind her and stopped plotting she would be much more able to deal with the current crises.

    It takes a lot for me to sympathise with a brexiteer in trouble but when I see people trying to crucify her for not 'doing' sympathy properly I start feeling queasy. Remember they did the same to HRH when Diana died and a more excruciating example of tawdry mob rule I can't remember seeing.

    Get the tumbrils out , plenty of Tories to fill them
    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/foodbank-nurse-claire-austin-abused-while-eating-in-restaurant-1-4478957
    don't see much comment about your great pal Theresa coming from you lately.
    Nor you about Nicola who had a worse campaign
    I don't care about Nicola, I am interested in independence. She has been dire , not in the league of May mind you , and is keeping her head down while licking her wounds. Just a tad more intelligent than the Maybot though who is really showing herself for what she is.

    PS: you obviously are not good at numbers, Nicola won well over 50% of the seats contested, easily won Scotland by a country mile, unlike the useless Theresa.
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,120
    tlg86 said:

    @Chris - Thanks for that. So either a load of people are going to prison or the fire proof properties of another form of cladding will be brought into serious question.

    I suppose there's still the question of whether the regulations have changed since the cladding was used. But that shouldn't really be hard for a competent journalist to check. If there's one around.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,710



    A fair post. I would read it as voters wanting a customs-free arrangement with the EU to maximise trade, which incidentally is something Theresa May is looking at, whilst also giving the UK the ability to set its own tariff arrangements and trade deals globally. But most people simply don't know how it works.

    Free trade means both sides don't pay tariffs on goods within the scope of that agreement, but you still have to show you've complied with rules-of-origin checks at the borders between those countries, as EFTA states do. Customs union means there is no need for customs checks internally, except at the borders of that customs union as a whole, because you've already done them already; however, tariffs are set at a common level.

    That means the EU commission negotiates as a whole in international trade deals, because the level of sovereign control a state would have over its own tariff and regulatory regime is so limited (non-existent) there'd be little to no point even if it wanted to.

    If we're Leaving the EU to realise benefits and future opportunities, then quitting the customs union is probably the most obvious thing to do first, subject to a transition period.

    And it's not just us either who wish to quit the customs union..

    https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/876012709753565184

    Negotiating our own trade deals is always presented as a flexibility and an advantage. It's the wrong way round IMO. Being out of a customs union means losing all the beneficial trade arrangements built up by the EU over decades. Being out of a customs union forces is to negotiate new deals when it would be better to keep what we already have. At the least there will be gap in the short and medium terms
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,814
    WOW Hammond's really done a number on Theresa!
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,994

    Scott_P said:

    https

    Those are astounding numbers. We must now countenance the possibility that public opinion swings sharply away from Brexit, during the negotiations
    They are misleading numbers, and misleading questions.

    It's Peston, Islam, and the bitter-ender Remainers that are sharing these as part of their lobbying effort: they smell blood.
    I think the mood is changing. I cannot stand Faisal Islam but my own thoughts have changed mainly because the future of Airbus is under threat in North Wales. My son in law along with many thousands in North Wales and Cheshire depend on these high quality jobs
    It isn't under threat.

    The lobbying effort has restarted again, full on again, at Mach 2, because of the GE2017 results, and the Remainers smell blood.
    I think the many thousands of employees think it is and are very worried
    There will be plenty of turnips in East Anglia that will require willing hands to pick them in the post-Brexit wonderland. Amittedly it won't be quite as fulfilling or well renumerated as designing and building A350 wings but they can be consoled by all that sweet control we shall have taken back.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,916

    isam said:

    Scott_P said:

    https

    Those are astounding numbers. We must now countenance the possibility that public opinion swings sharply away from Brexit, during the negotiations
    They are misleading numbers, and misleading questions.

    It's Peston, Islam, and the bitter-ender Remainers that are sharing these as part of their lobbying effort: they smell blood.
    Translation: I don't like the results.
    Ah, another bitter-ender Remainer looking to jump on the wagon of results he loves.

    I've explained downthread why these results are misleading.

    There are plenty of other polls showing a very different picture, including support for the Government's current position, which is consistent at about 43-45%.
    Your characterisation of me is as inaccurate as your analysis of this poll.

    My position, about which I've been consistent since even before the referendum result, is that the result has to be respected in spirit as well as the letter, unless and until public opinion has decisively changed. It's going to be a disaster but that's democracy for you.
    The measure of public opinion used to decide we had a referendum was a majority for a party that pledged to hold one. We didn't have one just because UKIP were doing well in polls or winning by elections. Surely the same measure should be used again?
    No party got an overall majority. It might yet be that a second referendum is something that the majority of the House feels is appropriate in the changed circumstances.

    Personally, I'm not in favour of one.
    I mean in 2015. There was a manifesto pledge to hold a referendum if the Conservatives got a majority, that's why we had one. It wasn't on the whim of MP's or a because UKIP were winning seats
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Philip Hammond is definitely in the hunt. He's confirmed he's ready for the UK to leave the customs union, ensuring the headbangers can live with him.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,612
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Roger said:

    Nothing like the Tory party for kicking someone when they're down. If they got behind her and stopped plotting she would be much more able to deal with the current crises.

    It takes a lot for me to sympathise with a brexiteer in trouble but when I see people trying to crucify her for not 'doing' sympathy properly I start feeling queasy. Remember they did the same to HRH when Diana died and a more excruciating example of tawdry mob rule I can't remember seeing.

    Get the tumbrils out , plenty of Tories to fill them
    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/foodbank-nurse-claire-austin-abused-while-eating-in-restaurant-1-4478957
    don't see much comment about your great pal Theresa coming from you lately.
    Nor you about Nicola who had a worse campaign
    I am interested in independence.
    Never mind.......
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,973
    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    Commentator on Marr asking why helicopters were not spraying water over the buildings and rescuing people. Apparently the fire service banned the helicopters due to downdraft problems which seems obvious when you think about

    Flying helicopters at night, in the middle of a city around a tower block on fire?. Sounds fun.
    Even in the middle of the night, an inferno is clearly visible. More visible than during the day.

    I take it you have not seen helicopters dousing fire in LA, for example.
    I think I would believe Twisted Fire Stopper before you.

    Of course, you would. Apart from being a fire-fighter, he is also a Brexiter. It is the second bit which makes him more believeable to you.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LXFA5aVB3vI
    That's a totally different situation. Imagine how much that bucket would be swinging around above the building, and how low you'd have to get the helicopter to ensure it went on target. And what would happen to the water that hit the building? It'd either pool on the roof or just go down the sides, when the seat of the fire would have been well within by that time.

    I hope you volunteer to be the crew on the helicopter doing it.

    IMV what you need are what they used: high-pressure unmanned pumps to get the water through windows and into the building - although can they reach high enough for this sort of building? If so that's a significant capability gap.

    Here's an idea: a high-powered drone capable of lifting water hoses up high without the need for ladders (or from the top of the highest ladder). Though water and hoses weigh a lot, so it'd have to have a lot of grunt to lift them.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,204
    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/876364340680634369

    Can we arrange for him to take over tomorrow please.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,280
    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    Commentator on Marr asking why helicopters were not spraying water over the buildings and rescuing people. Apparently the fire service banned the helicopters due to downdraft problems which seems obvious when you think about

    Flying helicopters at night, in the middle of a city around a tower block on fire?. Sounds fun.
    Even in the middle of the night, an inferno is clearly visible. More visible than during the day.

    I take it you have not seen helicopters dousing fire in LA, for example.
    I think I would believe Twisted Fire Stopper before you.

    Of course, you would. Apart from being a fire-fighter, he is also a Brexiter. It is the second bit which makes him more believeable to you.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LXFA5aVB3vI
    Do grow up. If you have read my posts yesterday and today you will see I am far from being a Brexiter
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Scott_P said:
    This has been selfless by May - she's overseen the shattering of UKIP but now is steering us into soft Brexit they can no longer functionally oppose and by doing so shooting the Sindy fox at the same time - doing all of it whilst under the cover of incompetence caring nought for her own personal reputation.

    History will judge her as the most skilled politician of all time.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,814
    edited June 2017

    Philip Hammond is definitely in the hunt. He's confirmed he's ready for the UK to leave the customs union, ensuring the headbangers can live with him.

    I assume it'll be between him and David Davis.

    Though with the way politics is at the moment you just never know...
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Scott_P said:

    https

    Those are astounding numbers. We must now countenance the possibility that public opinion swings sharply away from Brexit, during the negotiations
    They are misleading numbers, and misleading questions.

    It's Peston, Islam, and the bitter-ender Remainers that are sharing these as part of their lobbying effort: they smell blood.
    Translation: I don't like the results.
    Ah, another bitter-ender Remainer looking to jump on the wagon of results he loves.

    I've explained downthread why these results are misleading.

    There are plenty of other polls showing a very different picture, including support for the Government's current position, which is consistent at about 43-45%.
    Your characterisation of me is as inaccurate as your analysis of this poll.

    My position, about which I've been consistent since even before the referendum result, is that the result has to be respected in spirit as well as the letter, unless and until public opinion has decisively changed. It's going to be a disaster but that's democracy for you.
    The measure of public opinion used to decide we had a referendum was a majority for a party that pledged to hold one. We didn't have one just because UKIP were doing well in polls or winning by elections. Surely the same measure should be used again?
    No party got an overall majority. It might yet be that a second referendum is something that the majority of the House feels is appropriate in the changed circumstances.

    Personally, I'm not in favour of one.
    I mean in 2015. There was a manifesto pledge to hold a referendum if the Conservatives got a majority, that's why we had one. It wasn't on the whim of MP's or a because UKIP were winning seats
    This is a Parliamentary democracy. Parliament can decide whether to hold a referendum. The Conservatives didn't have a manifesto commitment to hold one on AV in 2010, but the coalition government did so nevertheless in 2011.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,055

    And it's not just us either who wish to quit the customs union..

    https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/876012709753565184

    That's the kind of question that can easily be Sir Humphried to produce diametrically opposite results.
  • Options
    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Why can we have a second GE if we dont like the result or want to improve our prties position but the thought of a second referendom is against democracy?
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,976
    Hmm. Swinson down to 1.9 (back) on Betfair Exchange now.

    Was 2.4 an hour or two ago. Cheers, again to Mr. Quincel for mentioning that.
  • Options
    calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    Interestingly although Survation basis forecast on recent polling, including the Daily Record Scottish poll published a few days ago, for some reason the Daily Record appears not to have released the underlying GE voting intention figures !!
    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/875662347880288257
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,204

    Hmm. Swinson down to 1.9 (back) on Betfair Exchange now.

    Was 2.4 an hour or two ago. Cheers, again to Mr. Quincel for mentioning that.

    Has there been a development?
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    GIN1138 said:

    Philip Hammond is definitely in the hunt. He's confirmed he's ready for the UK to leave the customs union, ensuring the headbangers can live with him.

    I assume it'll be between him and David Davis.

    Though with the way politics is at the moment you just never know...
    9/1 and 9/2 respectively. I've backed both.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,976
    edited June 2017
    Mr. Borough, not that I'm aware of, but, then, I had no idea why she'd drifted to 2.4 either.

    Edited extra bit: on Ladbrokes she was either 1.5 or 1.67 earlier this morning, now 1.9.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,317

    Philip Hammond is definitely in the hunt. He's confirmed he's ready for the UK to leave the customs union, ensuring the headbangers can live with him.

    Superb, I'll take that.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,710

    Scott_P said:
    It was inevitable in my opinion. But I am remainiac or whatever today's term of abuse is.
    The term Remoaner has interestingly gone out of fashion in the face of increasingly undeniable reality.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,331
    It's usually best to bet on things NOT happening as the febrile media (and sometimes the febrile PB) predict. Not always, of course, but the media live by predicting surprises. On Friday, PB was full of posts predicting (a) TM's resignation this weekend and (b) riots. I argued that neither was very likely, and so far that's been the case.

    Similarly, "the no more slip-ups" and "you've got to get the Queen's Speech through" are quite low bars for TM to jump. Of course she'll get the QS through, the DUP has already said they'llback it, and while there are rebellious Tories that's not the mechanism they'll choose to bring TM down. Essentially she'll be OK for the forseeable future if she can get through to the August recess.

    I'm interested in the way people not keen to support a left-wing party are shifting. It used to be "I can't vote for Corbyn", but now in the face of Corbyn proving a mild sort of chap (as I was a lone voice here saying for a long time), it's shifted to "Corbyn might be all right but McDonnell worries me". I know him too, so a frank comment may be useful. McDonnell is not nearly as nice as Corbyn, as he says himself, but he is to a much greater extent a classic politician with all the good and less good things that that implies - more than anyone he reminds me of Ed Balls, with a genial manner, flexible opinions and steely nerve. But he has worked much harder at making Labour's manifesto vaguely affordable (which is more than we ever managed under EdM), explicitly vetoing things that we'd really like such as reversing all welfare cuts. If Labour does take power, it will be McDonnell who vetoes bonkers Chavez/Syriza-style policies, things that it'd be nice to do but we really can't afford.

    And yes, he's said things in the past that don't bear close scrutiny. Adjusting from left-wing oppositionism to potential power is difficult. But McDonnell is probably the left-wing figure most capable of doing it without much effort.

    On the doorstep, a lot of the "I can't vote Labour because of Corbyn" voters proved on closer discussion to have not voted Labour since 2010, if at all. That's why the anti-Corbyn media blitz didn't really work, as it mainly spoke to people who weren't going to vote Labour anyway. Shifting to an anti-McDonnell blitz won't solve the Tory dilemma either. They need to discover an actual reason why people should LIKE them. And I think they'rre too exhausted to do it.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,378
    ‪Watching Hammond on Marr it is clear that Hammond is only interested in ensuring strong & stable leadership for the party and the country. ‬
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,055
    FF43 said:

    Scott_P said:
    It was inevitable in my opinion. But I am remainiac or whatever today's term of abuse is.
    The term Remoaner has interestingly gone out of fashion in the face of increasingly undeniable reality.
    We'll need a term for repentant Brexiteers soon. How about Re-saners?
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Hammond was like May in a skirt on Marr - boring, dull , managerial. Uninspiring...
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    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,913

    Scott_P said:

    https

    Those are astounding numbers. We must now countenance the possibility that public opinion swings sharply away from Brexit, during the negotiations
    They are misleading numbers, and misleading questions.

    It's Peston, Islam, and the bitter-ender Remainers that are sharing these as part of their lobbying effort: they smell blood.
    and yet it's a Daily Mail poll, doesn't the commissioning client normally have some role in determining the questions, subject to them meeting Market Research Society standards.
    The wind has gone out of the Brexit sails in the last 10 days and I suspect the Mail is starting to hedge its bets after the egg it got on its face a week last Thursday.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,710
    edited June 2017

    Philip Hammond is definitely in the hunt. He's confirmed he's ready for the UK to leave the customs union, ensuring the headbangers can live with him.

    Superb, I'll take that.
    I suspect he will change his mind on not having a customs union with the EU, indeed if that is his mind and he becomes PM. It's just further muddying the already murky Brexit waters.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    TGOHF said:
    He's high on his own supply. We might well be close to peak Corbyn. Sooner or later he will need compliance from the Labour right. Now was the time to be inclusive or at least conciliatory on his terms. He's missing his chance.
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    ‪Watching Hammond on Marr it is clear that Hammond is only interested in ensuring strong & stable leadership for the party and the country. ‬

    .. under Hammond ..
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,317

    GIN1138 said:

    Philip Hammond is definitely in the hunt. He's confirmed he's ready for the UK to leave the customs union, ensuring the headbangers can live with him.

    I assume it'll be between him and David Davis.

    Though with the way politics is at the moment you just never know...
    9/1 and 9/2 respectively. I've backed both.
    Me too.

    I'm not backing Boris.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,317
    FF43 said:

    Philip Hammond is definitely in the hunt. He's confirmed he's ready for the UK to leave the customs union, ensuring the headbangers can live with him.

    Superb, I'll take that.
    I suspect he will change his mind on not having a customs union with the EU, indeed if that is his mind and he becomes PM. It's just further muddying the already murky Brexit waters.
    I think there will be a transition period, followed by an arrangement for customs-free union in certain areas and sectors, for a fee, under Hammond. Like on cars and aerospace.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,378
    edited June 2017
    TGOHF said:

    ‪Watching Hammond on Marr it is clear that Hammond is only interested in ensuring strong & stable leadership for the party and the country. ‬

    .. under Hammond ..
    You're such a cynic.

    Mr Hammond is showing Theresa May all the loyalty and support Mrs May and her staff have shown him since he became Chancellor.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,055

    GIN1138 said:

    Philip Hammond is definitely in the hunt. He's confirmed he's ready for the UK to leave the customs union, ensuring the headbangers can live with him.

    I assume it'll be between him and David Davis.

    Though with the way politics is at the moment you just never know...
    9/1 and 9/2 respectively. I've backed both.
    Me too.

    I'm not backing Boris.
    Someone a few threads ago dismissed Boris by saying that his only talent is the ability to change his mind and get away with it. In the circumstances he could be the man of the moment.
  • Options
    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    The DUP-Conservative arrangement is still on. The DUP are letting the heat in the situation over in London cool down a bit. Yes they have their doubts (as do the Conservatives) and being crafty they want to be able to back off easily (something the Conservatives don't want) .

    Part of the issue is that they are getting some mixed signals from elsewhere in the Conservative Party.

    Bear in mind, that there is hardly a member of the DUP who hasn't lost a friend or relative to the Provos. Whilst many of the DUP constituency and to some extent the DUP itself is left of the Conservatives, when there is such a direct personal connection to recent history, a proper one, not distance based outrage and bandwagon jumping, to not sort something is a rather large river to cross.

    The alternative just won't do.
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    HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    edited June 2017

    TGOHF said:
    He's high on his own supply. We might well be close to peak Corbyn. Sooner or later he will need compliance from the Labour right. Now was the time to be inclusive or at least conciliatory on his terms. He's missing his chance.
    He's shoved a favourite who cannot do the job back into the role of Shadow Home Sec, hardly a ringing endorsement of his ability to build a team to govern.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,976
    I've only backed Hammond.

    Davis doing the departure from the EU is a very large job in itself. A sort of consul approach, with Davis mostly doing the EU and Hammond handling the domestic agenda could work and suit both men.

    Also, Hammond has better odds available.
  • Options
    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,913

    Scott_P said:

    https

    Those are astounding numbers. We must now countenance the possibility that public opinion swings sharply away from Brexit, during the negotiations
    They are misleading numbers, and misleading questions.

    It's Peston, Islam, and the bitter-ender Remainers that are sharing these as part of their lobbying effort: they smell blood.
    I think the mood is changing. I cannot stand Faisal Islam but my own thoughts have changed mainly because the future of Airbus is under threat in North Wales. My son in law along with many thousands in North Wales and Cheshire depend on these high quality jobs
    Spot on, I have the same concerns about Airbus and when I hear the likes of Jacob Rees Mogg blithely say we should just walk away it makes my blood boil. I think this was a factor in why Mrs May's approach went down so badly in Chester and the North East Wales seats.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,204

    It's usually best to bet on things NOT happening as the febrile media (and sometimes the febrile PB) predict. Not always, of course, but the media live by predicting surprises. On Friday, PB was full of posts predicting (a) TM's resignation this weekend and (b) riots. I argued that neither was very likely, and so far that's been the case.

    Similarly, "the no more slip-ups" and "you've got to get the Queen's Speech through" are quite low bars for TM to jump. Of course she'll get the QS through, the DUP has already said they'llback it, and while there are rebellious Tories that's not the mechanism they'll choose to bring TM down. Essentially she'll be OK for the forseeable future if she can get through to the August recess.

    I'm interested in the way people not keen to support a left-wing party are shifting. It used to be "I can't vote for Corbyn", but now in the face of Corbyn proving a mild sort of chap (as I was a lone voice here saying for a long time), it's shifted to "Corbyn might be all right but McDonnell worries me". I know him too, so a frank comment may be useful. McDonnell is not nearly as nice as Corbyn, as he says himself, but he is to a much greater extent a classic politician with all the good and less good things that that implies - more than anyone he reminds me of Ed Balls, with a genial manner, flexible opinions and steely nerve. But he has worked much harder at making Labour's manifesto vaguely affordable (which is more than we ever managed under EdM), explicitly vetoing things that we'd really like such as reversing all welfare cuts. If Labour does take power, it will be McDonnell who vetoes bonkers Chavez/Syriza-style policies, things that it'd be nice to do but we really can't afford.

    And yes, he's said things in the past that don't bear close scrutiny. Adjusting from left-wing oppositionism to potential power is difficult. But McDonnell is probably the left-wing figure most capable of doing it without much effort.

    On the doorstep, a lot of the "I can't vote Labour because of Corbyn" voters proved on closer discussion to have not voted Labour since 2010, if at all. That's why the anti-Corbyn media blitz didn't really work, as it mainly spoke to people who weren't going to vote Labour anyway. Shifting to an anti-McDonnell blitz won't solve the Tory dilemma either. They need to discover an actual reason why people should LIKE them. And I think they'rre too exhausted to do it.

    Interesting comments. Those of us who predicted Corbyn would be a utter disaster should fess up and admit you ended up being right.

    But Labour are still not in government.

    I'm far from convinced though that the one more heave, Tories are tired, argument will actually work next time.

  • Options
    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    FF43 said:

    Philip Hammond is definitely in the hunt. He's confirmed he's ready for the UK to leave the customs union, ensuring the headbangers can live with him.

    Superb, I'll take that.
    I suspect he will change his mind on not having a customs union with the EU, indeed if that is his mind and he becomes PM. It's just further muddying the already murky Brexit waters.
    I think there will be a transition period, followed by an arrangement for customs-free union in certain areas and sectors, for a fee, under Hammond. Like on cars and aerospace.
    Sector by sector is a non-starter:

    http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2017/04/29-euco-brexit-guidelines/

    Exact words: "Preserving the integrity of the Single Market excludes participation based on a sector-by-sector approach."

    Whatever settlement we get will largely be to the EU's design. It's amazing how parochial our press and political class are, debating the issue as if we get to pick from a menu.

  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,204

    GIN1138 said:

    Philip Hammond is definitely in the hunt. He's confirmed he's ready for the UK to leave the customs union, ensuring the headbangers can live with him.

    I assume it'll be between him and David Davis.

    Though with the way politics is at the moment you just never know...
    9/1 and 9/2 respectively. I've backed both.
    Me too.

    I'm not backing Boris.
    Someone a few threads ago dismissed Boris by saying that his only talent is the ability to change his mind and get away with it. In the circumstances he could be the man of the moment.
    :lol: Boris leads us back into the EU!
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,280
    HaroldO said:

    TGOHF said:
    He's high on his own supply. We might well be close to peak Corbyn. Sooner or later he will need compliance from the Labour right. Now was the time to be inclusive or at least conciliatory on his terms. He's missing his chance.
    He's shoved a favourite who cannot do the job back into the role of Shadow Home Sec, hardly a ringing endorsement of his ability to build a team to govern.
    She is a walking disaster and symptomatic of Corbyn's inability to unite the labour party
  • Options
    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,913

    GeoffM said:

    Scott_P said:
    Did they test "Do you know what Customs Union means?" before asking if we should leave it?

    I am amazed anyone uses the results of any poll to suggest anything. Its all hocus pocus

    AKA: I don't like the results
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,710

    TGOHF said:
    He's high on his own supply. We might well be close to peak Corbyn. Sooner or later he will need compliance from the Labour right. Now was the time to be inclusive or at least conciliatory on his terms. He's missing his chance.
    I think you're right. Electoral politics is a zero sum game however. Labour unpopularity benefits the Conservatives. The votes have to go somewhere. The question is, what happens when both main parties are dysfunctional.
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    malcolmg said:

    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    Commentator on Marr asking why helicopters were not spraying water over the buildings and rescuing people. Apparently the fire service banned the helicopters due to downdraft problems which seems obvious when you think about

    Flying helicopters at night, in the middle of a city around a tower block on fire?. Sounds fun.
    Even in the middle of the night, an inferno is clearly visible. More visible than during the day.

    I take it you have not seen helicopters dousing fire in LA, for example.
    I think I would believe Twisted Fire Stopper before you.

    Of course, you would. Apart from being a fire-fighter, he is also a Brexiter. It is the second bit which makes him more believeable to you.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LXFA5aVB3vI
    F***s sake they had to send to Surrey for a key bit of equipment as none in London , Surrey the capital of Tower blocks no less, so what chance of them having a helicopter. With this mob I bet we have more fire chiefs than we do fire engines

    TGOHF said:

    ‪Watching Hammond on Marr it is clear that Hammond is only interested in ensuring strong & stable leadership for the party and the country. ‬

    .. under Hammond ..
    You're such a cynic.

    Mr Hammond is showing Theresa May all the loyalty and support Mrs May and her staff have shown him since he became Chancellor.
    Two baldies fighting over a comb. Between them they might make poor mans Brown.
  • Options
    HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185

    HaroldO said:

    TGOHF said:
    He's high on his own supply. We might well be close to peak Corbyn. Sooner or later he will need compliance from the Labour right. Now was the time to be inclusive or at least conciliatory on his terms. He's missing his chance.
    He's shoved a favourite who cannot do the job back into the role of Shadow Home Sec, hardly a ringing endorsement of his ability to build a team to govern.
    She is a walking disaster and symptomatic of Corbyn's inability to unite the labour party
    I think he will bring in some of his critics as time goes on, but he is showing hubris and as such they will go into junior roles which does not bode well for the long term. When you have a top team of incompetents that are friends with the leader, but a junior team of more competent workers nothing good will happen.
  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,310

    It's usually best to bet on things NOT happening as the febrile media (and sometimes the febrile PB) predict. Not always, of course, but the media live by predicting surprises. On Friday, PB was full of posts predicting (a) TM's resignation this weekend and (b) riots. I argued that neither was very likely, and so far that's been the case.

    Similarly, "the no more slip-ups" and "you've got to get the Queen's Speech through" are quite low bars for TM to jump. Of course she'll get the QS through, the DUP has already said they'llback it, and while there are rebellious Tories that's not the mechanism they'll choose to bring TM down. Essentially she'll be OK for the forseeable future if she can get through to the August recess.

    I'm interested in the way people not keen to support a left-wing party are shifting. It used to be "I can't vote for Corbyn", but now in the face of Corbyn proving a mild sort of chap (as I was a lone voice here saying for a long time), it's shifted to "Corbyn might be all right but McDonnell worries me". I know him too, so a frank comment may be useful. McDonnell is not nearly as nice as Corbyn, as he says himself, but he is to a much greater extent a classic politician with all the good and less good things that that implies - more than anyone he reminds me of Ed Balls, with a genial manner, flexible opinions and steely nerve. But he has worked much harder at making Labour's manifesto vaguely affordable (which is more than we ever managed under EdM), explicitly vetoing things that we'd really like such as reversing all welfare cuts. If Labour does take power, it will be McDonnell who vetoes bonkers Chavez/Syriza-style policies, things that it'd be nice to do but we really can't afford.

    (Snip)

    On the doorstep, a lot of the "I can't vote Labour because of Corbyn" voters proved on closer discussion to have not voted Labour since 2010, if at all. That's why the anti-Corbyn media blitz didn't really work, as it mainly spoke to people who weren't going to vote Labour anyway. Shifting to an anti-McDonnell blitz won't solve the Tory dilemma either. They need to discover an actual reason why people should LIKE them. And I think they'rre too exhausted to do it.

    Interesting comments. Those of us who predicted Corbyn would be a utter disaster should fess up and admit you ended up being right.

    But Labour are still not in government.

    I'm far from convinced though that the one more heave, Tories are tired, argument will actually work next time.

    Yes, I fess up. Nick was right, I was wrong.

    Am thinking of rejoining the Labour Party, if only so that I can be its most right wing member.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,871

    HaroldO said:

    TGOHF said:
    He's high on his own supply. We might well be close to peak Corbyn. Sooner or later he will need compliance from the Labour right. Now was the time to be inclusive or at least conciliatory on his terms. He's missing his chance.
    He's shoved a favourite who cannot do the job back into the role of Shadow Home Sec, hardly a ringing endorsement of his ability to build a team to govern.
    She is a walking disaster and symptomatic of Corbyn's inability to unite the labour party
    G, no worse than St Theresa has turned out to be, Calamity Kate could do better than she is doing. I hate to say I said all along how crap she was and that it would end in tears.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,317
    RoyalBlue said:

    FF43 said:

    Philip Hammond is definitely in the hunt. He's confirmed he's ready for the UK to leave the customs union, ensuring the headbangers can live with him.

    Superb, I'll take that.
    I suspect he will change his mind on not having a customs union with the EU, indeed if that is his mind and he becomes PM. It's just further muddying the already murky Brexit waters.
    I think there will be a transition period, followed by an arrangement for customs-free union in certain areas and sectors, for a fee, under Hammond. Like on cars and aerospace.
    Sector by sector is a non-starter:

    http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2017/04/29-euco-brexit-guidelines/

    Exact words: "Preserving the integrity of the Single Market excludes participation based on a sector-by-sector approach."

    Whatever settlement we get will largely be to the EU's design. It's amazing how parochial our press and political class are, debating the issue as if we get to pick from a menu.

    But, this isn't about the single market.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,986
    RoyalBlue said:

    FF43 said:

    Philip Hammond is definitely in the hunt. He's confirmed he's ready for the UK to leave the customs union, ensuring the headbangers can live with him.

    Superb, I'll take that.
    I suspect he will change his mind on not having a customs union with the EU, indeed if that is his mind and he becomes PM. It's just further muddying the already murky Brexit waters.
    I think there will be a transition period, followed by an arrangement for customs-free union in certain areas and sectors, for a fee, under Hammond. Like on cars and aerospace.
    Sector by sector is a non-starter:

    http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2017/04/29-euco-brexit-guidelines/

    Exact words: "Preserving the integrity of the Single Market excludes participation based on a sector-by-sector approach."

    Whatever settlement we get will largely be to the EU's design. It's amazing how parochial our press and political class are, debating the issue as if we get to pick from a menu.

    Not entirely true, Switzerland has access by bilateral agreements to the EEA without being a member of it
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,612
    John Harris:

    As the cliche goes, the election proved that no one knows anything any more. But there’s a drawback: that also includes the people now claiming they alone somehow have the key to the future.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/17/corbyn-chiming-with-times-jubilant-insurgent-labour?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,120
    She probably just had to touch the hem of JC's garment.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,871
    TGOHF said:

    malcolmg said:

    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    Commentator on Marr asking why helicopters were not spraying water over the buildings and rescuing people. Apparently the fire service banned the helicopters due to downdraft problems which seems obvious when you think about

    Flying helicopters at night, in the middle of a city around a tower block on fire?. Sounds fun.
    Even in the middle of the night, an inferno is clearly visible. More visible than during the day.

    I take it you have not seen helicopters dousing fire in LA, for example.
    I think I would believe Twisted Fire Stopper before you.

    Of course, you would. Apart from being a fire-fighter, he is also a Brexiter. It is the second bit which makes him more believeable to you.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LXFA5aVB3vI
    F***s sake they had to send to Surrey for a key bit of equipment as none in London , Surrey the capital of Tower blocks no less, so what chance of them having a helicopter. With this mob I bet we have more fire chiefs than we do fire engines

    TGOHF said:

    ‪Watching Hammond on Marr it is clear that Hammond is only interested in ensuring strong & stable leadership for the party and the country. ‬

    .. under Hammond ..
    You're such a cynic.

    Mr Hammond is showing Theresa May all the loyalty and support Mrs May and her staff have shown him since he became Chancellor.
    Two baldies fighting over a comb. Between them they might make poor mans Brown.
    Harry, now now nothing wrong with being follically challenged.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,925

    TGOHF said:
    He's high on his own supply. We might well be close to peak Corbyn. Sooner or later he will need compliance from the Labour right. Now was the time to be inclusive or at least conciliatory on his terms. He's missing his chance.

    I am not sure how many government posts there are, but I suspect it's close to 100. If Labour ever did win an election, most of the roles would have to be filled by soft left and centrist MPs. As you say, Corbyn needs to be thinking ahead - but it would appear he is rather enjoying himself at the moment. It's understandable, but not great for planning purposes.

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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,830
    Y0kel said:

    The DUP-Conservative arrangement is still on. The DUP are letting the heat in the situation over in London cool down a bit. Yes they have their doubts (as do the Conservatives) and being crafty they want to be able to back off easily (something the Conservatives don't want) .

    Part of the issue is that they are getting some mixed signals from elsewhere in the Conservative Party.

    Bear in mind, that there is hardly a member of the DUP who hasn't lost a friend or relative to the Provos. Whilst many of the DUP constituency and to some extent the DUP itself is left of the Conservatives, when there is such a direct personal connection to recent history, a proper one, not distance based outrage and bandwagon jumping, to not sort something is a rather large river to cross.

    The alternative just won't do.

    They've already said they'll vote for the QS. That gives the Government 328 to 315 votes at worst.
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    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,913

    There is zero chance of a 2nd referendum, no PM will risk political suicide. Cameron called a referendum, May called a snap election - look how that worked out.

    So many people conflating what they want to happen with reality.


    There will be a second referendum because it will become the only way out of the unholy mess we now find ourselves. It's the cop-out option but I will welcome it nevertheless.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,925
    It's good to see that absolute nonsense of the No Deal is Better than a Bad Deal rhetoric being quietly buried today.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,986

    It's usually best to bet on things NOT happening as the febrile media (and sometimes the febrile PB) predict. Not always, of course, but the media live by predicting surprises. On Friday, PB was full of posts predicting (a) TM's resignation this weekend and (b) riots. I argued that neither was very likely, and so far that's been the case.

    Similarly, "the no more slip-ups" and "you've got to get the Queen's Speech through" are quite low bars for TM to jump. Of course she'll get the QS through, the DUP has already said they'llback it, and while there are rebellious Tories that's not the mechanism they'll choose to bring TM down. Essentially she'll be OK for the forseeable future if she can get through to the August recess.

    I'm interested in the way people not keen to support a left-wing party are shifting. It used to be "I can't vote for Corbyn", but now in the face of Corbyn proving a mild sort of chap (as I was a lone voice here saying for a long time), it's shifted to "Corbyn might be all right but McDonnell worries me". I know him too, so a frank comment may be useful. McDonnell is not nearly as nice as Corbyn, as he says himself, but he is to a much greater extent a classic politician with all the good and less good things that that implies - more than anyone he reminds me of Ed Balls, with a genial manner, flexible opinions and steely nerve. But he has worked much harder at making Labour's manifesto vaguely affordable (which is more than we ever managed under EdM), explicitly vetoing things that we'd really like such as reversing all welfare cuts. If Labour does take power, it will be McDonnell who vetoes bonkers Chavez/Syriza-style policies, things that it'd be nice to do but we really can't afford.

    And yes, he's said things in the past that don't bear close scrutiny. Adjusting from left-wing oppositionism to potential power is difficult. But McDonnell is probably the left-wing figure most capable of doing it without much effort.

    On the doorstep, a lot of the "I can't vote Labour because of Corbyn" voters proved on closer discussion to have not voted Labour since 2010, if at all. That's why the anti-Corbyn media blitz didn't really work, as it mainly spoke to people who weren't going to vote Labour anyway. Shifting to an anti-McDonnell blitz won't solve the Tory dilemma either. They need to discover an actual reason why people should LIKE them. And I think they'rre too exhausted to do it.

    42% voted to keep Corbyn and McDonnell out despite an abysmal Tory campaign, with a half decent Tory campaign who knows what will happen?
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,710
    HYUFD said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    FF43 said:

    Philip Hammond is definitely in the hunt. He's confirmed he's ready for the UK to leave the customs union, ensuring the headbangers can live with him.

    Superb, I'll take that.
    I suspect he will change his mind on not having a customs union with the EU, indeed if that is his mind and he becomes PM. It's just further muddying the already murky Brexit waters.
    I think there will be a transition period, followed by an arrangement for customs-free union in certain areas and sectors, for a fee, under Hammond. Like on cars and aerospace.
    Sector by sector is a non-starter:

    http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2017/04/29-euco-brexit-guidelines/

    Exact words: "Preserving the integrity of the Single Market excludes participation based on a sector-by-sector approach."

    Whatever settlement we get will largely be to the EU's design. It's amazing how parochial our press and political class are, debating the issue as if we get to pick from a menu.

    Not entirely true, Switzerland has access by bilateral agreements to the EEA without being a member of it
    A Swiss style deal won't be offered to us. It was negotiated in far more benign circumstances and subsequently the EU decided it made a mistake.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,055
    OllyT said:

    There is zero chance of a 2nd referendum, no PM will risk political suicide. Cameron called a referendum, May called a snap election - look how that worked out.

    So many people conflating what they want to happen with reality.

    There will be a second referendum because it will become the only way out of the unholy mess we now find ourselves. It's the cop-out option but I will welcome it nevertheless.
    And to avoid Cameron's mistake the PM will just have to be officially neutral and not campaign to avoid the referendum becoming a proxy protest vote against the incumbents.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,280
    malcolmg said:

    HaroldO said:

    TGOHF said:
    He's high on his own supply. We might well be close to peak Corbyn. Sooner or later he will need compliance from the Labour right. Now was the time to be inclusive or at least conciliatory on his terms. He's missing his chance.
    He's shoved a favourite who cannot do the job back into the role of Shadow Home Sec, hardly a ringing endorsement of his ability to build a team to govern.
    She is a walking disaster and symptomatic of Corbyn's inability to unite the labour party
    G, no worse than St Theresa has turned out to be, Calamity Kate could do better than she is doing. I hate to say I said all along how crap she was and that it would end in tears.
    Morning Malc - While I am pleased that my predictions for Scons success in Scotland, particularly in the North East came to pass I accept that TM has been wholly inadequate and will need to go probably by the Autumn Conference.

    Hope it is as nice a day in 'Gods own Country' as it is here in another part of Celtic UK
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    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    HYUFD said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    FF43 said:

    Philip Hammond is definitely in the hunt. He's confirmed he's ready for the UK to leave the customs union, ensuring the headbangers can live with him.

    Superb, I'll take that.
    I suspect he will change his mind on not having a customs union with the EU, indeed if that is his mind and he becomes PM. It's just further muddying the already murky Brexit waters.
    I think there will be a transition period, followed by an arrangement for customs-free union in certain areas and sectors, for a fee, under Hammond. Like on cars and aerospace.
    Sector by sector is a non-starter:

    http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2017/04/29-euco-brexit-guidelines/

    Exact words: "Preserving the integrity of the Single Market excludes participation based on a sector-by-sector approach."

    Whatever settlement we get will largely be to the EU's design. It's amazing how parochial our press and political class are, debating the issue as if we get to pick from a menu.

    Not entirely true, Switzerland has access by bilateral agreements to the EEA without being a member of it
    The European Comission greatly regrets what they have given Switzerland. They will not make the same mistake with us.

    They will offer us a take it or leave it deal. It must have been difficult enough to get an agreed position amongst the 27; I expect Barnier has very little wiggle room.

    We will accept, with some face-saving adjustment on the lump sum.
This discussion has been closed.