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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A fortnight on from the eve of GE2017 and a look back at those

SystemSystem Posts: 11,007
edited June 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A fortnight on from the eve of GE2017 and a look back at those final polls

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  • Options
    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited June 2017
    1st - like America on the moon
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    POTMWAS
  • Options
    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Do the bottom 3 pollsters get eliminated from the next round?
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793
    edited June 2017
    KABOOM!!!!!!!!! :D
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,097
    ICM = cardboard standard
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    It's ironic that the biggest error was that of Labour's own pollster.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,969
    F1: I did have several other betting ideas before I became Supreme Ruler of the Universe, but I'll wait until tomorrow to contemplate those properly. I'll also update on whether, as Mr. Eagles suggested, those bets get made null and void. If not, I'll wait until right before the race and then put hedging bets on the reverse result.

    On-topic: who'd be a pollster? In particular, the last election had a large number of very odd and ultra-close results. We could easily have had a blue majority. Or a very bad case of the Trots.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    FPT: There's more on the possible Scottish veto of (parts of) the Repeal Bill here in the last entry (17:49):

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/jun/21/queens-speech-2017-theresa-may-promises-humility-and-resolve-as-she-publishes-legislative-programme-politics-live
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,936
    Erm, in what world is a law that puts all European laws into the statute books not going to pass Holyrood?
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,969
    Any murmurings on whether Davey or Lamb will actually stand?
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    FPT: There's more on the possible Scottish veto of (parts of) the Repeal Bill here in the last entry (17:49):

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/jun/21/queens-speech-2017-theresa-may-promises-humility-and-resolve-as-she-publishes-legislative-programme-politics-live

    What a mess. No doubt you'll try to pin this on Keir Hardie.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    I still don't understand how YouGov could have both been out by 6 points in their headline poll, and about right in the modelling derived from their polls. It's very odd. It was one reason why I was sceptical of the model.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Either a dramatic last minute shift which is what I suspect or some herding based on the implausibility of Corbyn getting so close
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Jonathan said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    FPT: There's more on the possible Scottish veto of (parts of) the Repeal Bill here in the last entry (17:49):

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/jun/21/queens-speech-2017-theresa-may-promises-humility-and-resolve-as-she-publishes-legislative-programme-politics-live

    What a mess. No doubt you'll try to pin this on Keir Hardie.
    Tony Blair, surely?
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Is this the worst Tory administration since the war? Discuss.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,969
    Mr. Jonathan, far too early to try and say.

    Anyway, I must be off. Play nicely.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,936
    Jonathan said:

    Is this the worst Tory administration since the war? Discuss.

    Partisan till the last, eh?

    You lost. And worse, the hard left are now cemented at the top of a once great party.

  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,905
    Anyone have experience disputing a scratch on a foreign rental car (Spain)?
  • Options
    calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    Old news !

    https://stv.tv/news/politics/1379124-brexit-holyrood-to-have-consent-vote-on-repealing-eu-law/
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    edited June 2017
    I don't think I've expressed this before. But as a LEAVER I must say thank you a million times to Corbyn.Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you for not campaigning for REMAIN as you did this GE. We couldn't have done it without you.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Jonathan said:

    Is this the worst Tory administration since the war? Discuss.

    Almost certainly, but that's not in the least surprising since it hasn't got a majority. It's well-nigh impossible to be a good administration as a minority government in the UK.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Even the Queen doesn't approve of Brexit. She's making a point by wearing EU blue.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,576
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    FPT: There's more on the possible Scottish veto of (parts of) the Repeal Bill here in the last entry (17:49):

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/jun/21/queens-speech-2017-theresa-may-promises-humility-and-resolve-as-she-publishes-legislative-programme-politics-live

    a political convention that does not give rise to a legal obligation that can be enforced in the courts.”
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,097
    Sorry to harp on this, but we need to distinguish between the individual YouGov polls and the big YouGov model. The final projection of the big model had Labour at 38% - therefore an understatement of only two points; almost as good as Survation,
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,294
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I still don't understand how YouGov could have both been out by 6 points in their headline poll, and about right in the modelling derived from their polls. It's very odd. It was one reason why I was sceptical of the model.

    The normal YouGov poll had one set of assumptions, particularly on turnout.

    The model had a different set of assumptions.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903
    http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2017-united-kingdom-general-election
  • Options
    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,291
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I still don't understand how YouGov could have both been out by 6 points in their headline poll, and about right in the modelling derived from their polls. It's very odd. It was one reason why I was sceptical of the model.

    Didn't they panic at the last minute and started wrenching the algorithm to subdue youth turnout?
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,576
    Roger said:

    Even the Queen doesn't approve of Brexit. She's making a point by wearing EU blue.

    Its certainly sparking speculation:

    https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/877566999223840768

    Of course, it could be because this is her last Queen's Speech while we are in the EU.....
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:

    Is this the worst Tory administration since the war? Discuss.

    Partisan till the last, eh?

    You lost. And worse, the hard left are now cemented at the top of a once great party.

    I asked a perfectly reasonable question. It just occurred to me that John Major is actually better than this lot. Shocking though that thought might be. I guess they're rivalled only by Heath.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I still don't understand how YouGov could have both been out by 6 points in their headline poll, and about right in the modelling derived from their polls. It's very odd. It was one reason why I was sceptical of the model.

    They bottled it on their final poll and herded
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Chris said:

    Sorry to harp on this, but we need to distinguish between the individual YouGov polls and the big YouGov model. The final projection of the big model had Labour at 38% - therefore an understatement of only two points; almost as good as Survation,

    Indeed, but presumably they used the same methodology and weighting, so you'd expect similar results. I suppose the difference might just have been statistical error, but it does seem a bit odd all the same.
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    nunu said:

    I don't think I've expressed this before. But as a LEAVER I must say thank you a million times to Corbyn.Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you for not campaigning for REMAIN as you did this GE. We couldn't have done it without you.

    If I could get a hot blond twenty something Corbynista to "thank you" properly I would......

    ......paging SeanT........
  • Options
    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    CarlottaVance said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    FPT: There's more on the possible Scottish veto of (parts of) the Repeal Bill here in the last entry (17:49):

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/jun/21/queens-speech-2017-theresa-may-promises-humility-and-resolve-as-she-publishes-legislative-programme-politics-live

    a political convention that does not give rise to a legal obligation that can be enforced in the courts.”
    Yes, as I was reading from Prof James Chalmers it isn't an obstacle to Brexit as Scottish power can easily be overridden as part of the Union. Newton dunn's tweet had me initially worried but even this government wouldn't make that kind of oversight!
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Pulpstar said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I still don't understand how YouGov could have both been out by 6 points in their headline poll, and about right in the modelling derived from their polls. It's very odd. It was one reason why I was sceptical of the model.

    They bottled it on their final poll and herded
    Even that is odd, because they didn't show much faith in their own model in that case.
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    CarlottaVance said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    FPT: There's more on the possible Scottish veto of (parts of) the Repeal Bill here in the last entry (17:49):

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/jun/21/queens-speech-2017-theresa-may-promises-humility-and-resolve-as-she-publishes-legislative-programme-politics-live

    a political convention that does not give rise to a legal obligation that can be enforced in the courts.”
    Then whats all this hallabaloo about then?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    Roger said:

    Even the Queen doesn't approve of Brexit. She's making a point by wearing EU blue.

    What's the difference between EU blue and Tory blue? :D
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903
    Yougov:

    Fair enough

    As this is our final call before the election we made two minor changes to our method. The first is that rather than asking people which party they’d vote for, we showed respondents a list of the people actually standing in their constituency and asked which one they would vote for. Hopefully this will help pick up any tactical vote considerations and remove any issue of people saying they would vote UKIP or Green in seats where UKIP or the Greens are not actually standing.

    Herding

    Secondly we have reallocated those respondents who say don’t know, but who also say they are very likely to vote (voters who my colleague Adam McDonnell described earlier in the campaign as “true undecided”). We assume uncertain voters who say they “don’t know” at this stage won’t actually vote, but those who say they are 8+/10 certain to vote we have reallocated back to the party they voted for in 2015.

    Look at the undecided break here

    http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2017-united-kingdom-general-election
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    RobD said:

    Roger said:

    Even the Queen doesn't approve of Brexit. She's making a point by wearing EU blue.

    What's the difference between EU blue and Tory blue? :D
    Yellow stars on her hat.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,936
    Jonathan said:

    Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:

    Is this the worst Tory administration since the war? Discuss.

    Partisan till the last, eh?

    You lost. And worse, the hard left are now cemented at the top of a once great party.

    I asked a perfectly reasonable question. It just occurred to me that John Major is actually better than this lot. Shocking though that thought might be. I guess they're rivalled only by Heath.
    Fair enough. Sounded more accusatory! Good old difficulty of tone interpretation online strikes again
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited June 2017
    Interesting that after Brexit means Brexit and it's going to be a red white and blue Brexit May now says she's looking for a consensus. Sorry but too late. No one believes her.....

    and why are the the Tories putting Boris Johnson Jacob Rees Mogg and Andrea Leadsom in front of the cameras if they're looking for consensus?

    They couldn't have chosen 3 more incendiary candidates. All they were short of was Michael Gove......
  • Options
    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,291
    nunu said:

    I don't think I've expressed this before. But as a LEAVER I must say thank you a million times to Corbyn.Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you for not campaigning for REMAIN as you did this GE. We couldn't have done it without you.

    Jezza's a sly old fox to be sure. He kept his head down during the EU Ref (making us all think he was useless) and got exactly what he wanted - Brexit, Dave destroyed and May in. Then he unleashed his campaigning genius during the GE and destroyed May. I don't now think anything is beyond his cunning.
  • Options
    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    Jonathan said:

    Is this the worst Tory administration since the war? Discuss.

    Possibly, but it's not the worst administration. The candidates for that are all Labour.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I still don't understand how YouGov could have both been out by 6 points in their headline poll, and about right in the modelling derived from their polls. It's very odd. It was one reason why I was sceptical of the model.

    They bottled it on their final poll and herded
    Even that is odd, because they didn't show much faith in their own model in that case.
    Hedged their bets.

    Survation didn't. They weren't going to have a rerun of their 2015 debacle. Game Set Match Damien.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    Jonathan said:

    RobD said:

    Roger said:

    Even the Queen doesn't approve of Brexit. She's making a point by wearing EU blue.

    What's the difference between EU blue and Tory blue? :D
    Yellow stars on her hat.
    Na, they are lumps of gold representing the wealth the Tories steal from the poor and disabled.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793
    RobD said:

    Roger said:

    Even the Queen doesn't approve of Brexit. She's making a point by wearing EU blue.

    What's the difference between EU blue and Tory blue? :D
    Or even Misty Blue

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RMONGMDEerI
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Proof there IS a God, multiverses another matter:

    https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/877566576731365376
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    nunu said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    FPT: There's more on the possible Scottish veto of (parts of) the Repeal Bill here in the last entry (17:49):

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/jun/21/queens-speech-2017-theresa-may-promises-humility-and-resolve-as-she-publishes-legislative-programme-politics-live

    a political convention that does not give rise to a legal obligation that can be enforced in the courts.”
    Then whats all this hallabaloo about then?
    Nats stamping their feet about process? Who'd have thunk it.
  • Options
    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    Roger said:

    Interesting that after Brexit means Brexit and it's going to be a red white and blue Brexit May now says she's looking for a consensus. Sorry but too late. No one believes her.....

    Why are the the Tories putting Boris Johnson Jacob Rees Mogg and Andrea Leadsom in front of the cameras if they're looking for consensus? They couldn't have chosen 3 more incendiary candidates. All they were short of was Michael Gove......

    What's wrong with Mogg or Leadsom? They might infuriate people on here but what are they to the average punter?
  • Options
    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Roger said:

    Interesting that after Brexit means Brexit and it's going to be a red white and blue Brexit May now says she's looking for a consensus. Sorry but too late. No one believes her.....

    and why are the the Tories putting Boris Johnson Jacob Rees Mogg and Andrea Leadsom in front of the cameras if they're looking for consensus?

    They couldn't have chosen 3 more incendiary candidates. All they were short of was Michael Gove......

    Rees Mogg is pretty respected across the spectrum, he certainly knows his stuff.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:

    Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:

    Is this the worst Tory administration since the war? Discuss.

    Partisan till the last, eh?

    You lost. And worse, the hard left are now cemented at the top of a once great party.

    I asked a perfectly reasonable question. It just occurred to me that John Major is actually better than this lot. Shocking though that thought might be. I guess they're rivalled only by Heath.
    Fair enough. Sounded more accusatory! Good old difficulty of tone interpretation online strikes again
    Weirdly not a wind up. Just reflecting on a remarkable fortnight and two years. Thus was not how Cameron planned it in May 2015. I wonder what he would do if someone had whispered in his ears what victory meant.
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    I don't believe in polls but I do believe in God..........
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,905
    Jonathan said:

    Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:

    Is this the worst Tory administration since the war? Discuss.

    Partisan till the last, eh?

    You lost. And worse, the hard left are now cemented at the top of a once great party.

    I asked a perfectly reasonable question. It just occurred to me that John Major is actually better than this lot. Shocking though that thought might be. I guess they're rivalled only by Heath.
    Major presided over economic recovery and made progress on northern ireland.
    TM hasn't been there long but what successes can she point to?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903
    A friend of mine ballot box Labour switched last weekend. Normally votes Tory in GEs.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    rkrkrk said:

    Jonathan said:

    Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:

    Is this the worst Tory administration since the war? Discuss.

    Partisan till the last, eh?

    You lost. And worse, the hard left are now cemented at the top of a once great party.

    I asked a perfectly reasonable question. It just occurred to me that John Major is actually better than this lot. Shocking though that thought might be. I guess they're rivalled only by Heath.
    Major presided over economic recovery and made progress on northern ireland.
    TM hasn't been there long but what successes can she point to?
    Record Bookmaker Profits.
  • Options
    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    nunu said:

    Proof there IS a God, multiverses another matter:

    https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/877566576731365376

    Hell hath frozen over! I'm delighted he's come to this conclusion. Who's left in the denial camp?Tarzan? Farron?
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,372
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Any murmurings on whether Davey or Lamb will actually stand?

    How else will we sort the young sheep from the old goats ?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903
    We're now branched into one of the more unlikely universes - where Corbyn quite possibly now becomes PM. Still following President Trump & Leicester City triumphant in the premier league, it fits I suppose.
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Stark_Dawning said:

    nunu said:

    I don't think I've expressed this before. But as a LEAVER I must say thank you a million times to Corbyn.Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you for not campaigning for REMAIN as you did this GE. We couldn't have done it without you.

    Jezza's a sly old fox to be sure. He kept his head down during the EU Ref (making us all think he was useless) and got exactly what he wanted - Brexit, Dave destroyed and May in. Then he unleashed his campaigning genius during the GE and destroyed May. I don't now think anything is beyond his cunning.
    Soon he will of seen of 2 Tory PM's. He has been underestimated this whole time, and many PB tories are still doing it. smh.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903
    nunu said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    nunu said:

    I don't think I've expressed this before. But as a LEAVER I must say thank you a million times to Corbyn.Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you for not campaigning for REMAIN as you did this GE. We couldn't have done it without you.

    Jezza's a sly old fox to be sure. He kept his head down during the EU Ref (making us all think he was useless) and got exactly what he wanted - Brexit, Dave destroyed and May in. Then he unleashed his campaigning genius during the GE and destroyed May. I don't now think anything is beyond his cunning.
    Soon he will of seen of 2 Tory PM's. He has been underestimated this whole time, and many PB tories are still doing it. smh.
    It has been an amazing possum strategy.
  • Options
    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,291
    rkrkrk said:

    Jonathan said:

    Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:

    Is this the worst Tory administration since the war? Discuss.

    Partisan till the last, eh?

    You lost. And worse, the hard left are now cemented at the top of a once great party.

    I asked a perfectly reasonable question. It just occurred to me that John Major is actually better than this lot. Shocking though that thought might be. I guess they're rivalled only by Heath.
    Major presided over economic recovery and made progress on northern ireland.
    TM hasn't been there long but what successes can she point to?
    Yes, and Gentleman John kept us out of the Euro and the (albeit fleetingly) the Social Chapter. I suspect we'll be looking back at that level of negotiating skill with awe in the coming months. And he also created the National Lottery, which turned out to be a roaring success, despite everyone willing it to fail at the time. And was the Cones Hotline really such a bad idea?
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,576
    RobD said:

    Roger said:

    Even the Queen doesn't approve of Brexit. She's making a point by wearing EU blue.

    What's the difference between EU blue and Tory blue? :D
    RGB:
    EU Blue: 0 : 51 : 153
    Tory Blue: 0 : 135 : 220

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flag_of_Europe
    http://blog.richardallen.co.uk/uk-political-party-web-colours/

    Curiously Labour's 'red' has a little bit of 'blue' in it - and no green...

    In any case, the queen's outfit was more RGB 100, 214, 213 or 'moderate blue' - having a bit of red in there as well....
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Stark_Dawning said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Jonathan said:

    Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:

    Is this the worst Tory administration since the war? Discuss.

    Partisan till the last, eh?

    You lost. And worse, the hard left are now cemented at the top of a once great party.

    I asked a perfectly reasonable question. It just occurred to me that John Major is actually better than this lot. Shocking though that thought might be. I guess they're rivalled only by Heath.
    Major presided over economic recovery and made progress on northern ireland.
    TM hasn't been there long but what successes can she point to?
    Yes, and Gentleman John kept us out of the Euro and the (albeit fleetingly) the Social Chapter. I suspect we'll be looking back at that level of negotiating skill with awe in the coming months. And he also created the National Lottery, which turned out to be a roaring success, despite everyone willing it to fail at the time. And was the Cones Hotline really such a bad idea?
    Theresa dreams of the cones hotline success, but could not get such a politically charged measure into the QS.
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,097
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Chris said:

    Sorry to harp on this, but we need to distinguish between the individual YouGov polls and the big YouGov model. The final projection of the big model had Labour at 38% - therefore an understatement of only two points; almost as good as Survation,

    Indeed, but presumably they used the same methodology and weighting, so you'd expect similar results. I suppose the difference might just have been statistical error, but it does seem a bit odd all the same.
    The methodology was different for the large model. For example, in the large model, turnout was based on historical turnout for the different demographic groups in 2010 and 2015.
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Pulpstar said:

    nunu said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    nunu said:

    I don't think I've expressed this before. But as a LEAVER I must say thank you a million times to Corbyn.Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you for not campaigning for REMAIN as you did this GE. We couldn't have done it without you.

    Jezza's a sly old fox to be sure. He kept his head down during the EU Ref (making us all think he was useless) and got exactly what he wanted - Brexit, Dave destroyed and May in. Then he unleashed his campaigning genius during the GE and destroyed May. I don't now think anything is beyond his cunning.
    Soon he will of seen of 2 Tory PM's. He has been underestimated this whole time, and many PB tories are still doing it. smh.
    It has been an amazing possum strategy.
    He caused many bettors on here to reverse ferret!
  • Options
    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    nunu said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    nunu said:

    I don't think I've expressed this before. But as a LEAVER I must say thank you a million times to Corbyn.Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you for not campaigning for REMAIN as you did this GE. We couldn't have done it without you.

    Jezza's a sly old fox to be sure. He kept his head down during the EU Ref (making us all think he was useless) and got exactly what he wanted - Brexit, Dave destroyed and May in. Then he unleashed his campaigning genius during the GE and destroyed May. I don't now think anything is beyond his cunning.
    Soon he will of seen of 2 Tory PM's. He has been underestimated this whole time, and many PB tories are still doing it. smh.
    He was ridiculed but now he's definitely a serious threat. However seeing off 2 PMs and failing to take office is something of a Pyrrhic victory, the most popular kind of victories amongst the hard left
    :)
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Stark_Dawning said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Jonathan said:

    Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:

    Is this the worst Tory administration since the war? Discuss.

    Partisan till the last, eh?

    You lost. And worse, the hard left are now cemented at the top of a once great party.

    I asked a perfectly reasonable question. It just occurred to me that John Major is actually better than this lot. Shocking though that thought might be. I guess they're rivalled only by Heath.
    Major presided over economic recovery and made progress on northern ireland.
    TM hasn't been there long but what successes can she point to?
    Yes, and Gentleman John kept us out of the Euro and the (albeit fleetingly) the Social Chapter. I suspect we'll be looking back at that level of negotiating skill with awe in the coming months. And he also created the National Lottery, which turned out to be a roaring success, despite everyone willing it to fail at the time. And was the Cones Hotline really such a bad idea?
    He did give us Maarstricht, eurosceptics and UKIP too.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    CarlottaVance said:

    RobD said:

    Roger said:

    Even the Queen doesn't approve of Brexit. She's making a point by wearing EU blue.

    What's the difference between EU blue and Tory blue? :D
    RGB:
    EU Blue: 0 : 51 : 153
    Tory Blue: 0 : 135 : 220

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flag_of_Europe
    http://blog.richardallen.co.uk/uk-political-party-web-colours/

    Curiously Labour's 'red' has a little bit of 'blue' in it - and no green...

    In any case, the queen's outfit was more RGB 100, 214, 213 or 'moderate blue' - having a bit of red in there as well....
    How very neutral. :D:p
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,372
    England take a wicket first ball.

    Tentative evidence of a god, I suppose - but it is only limited overs...
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Pulpstar said:

    We're now branched into one of the more unlikely universes - where Corbyn quite possibly now becomes PM. Still following President Trump & Leicester City triumphant in the premier league, it fits I suppose.

    There's another universe where Cameron wins the EuRef narrowly and is forced to quit by the headbangers who make Johnson PM.

    How does Corbyn do in that universe?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    Chris said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Chris said:

    Sorry to harp on this, but we need to distinguish between the individual YouGov polls and the big YouGov model. The final projection of the big model had Labour at 38% - therefore an understatement of only two points; almost as good as Survation,

    Indeed, but presumably they used the same methodology and weighting, so you'd expect similar results. I suppose the difference might just have been statistical error, but it does seem a bit odd all the same.
    The methodology was different for the large model. For example, in the large model, turnout was based on historical turnout for the different demographic groups in 2010 and 2015.
    Hm, so they just got lucky with the model then?
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    Delighted to see that Diane Abbott has made a full recovery.

    I've just heard Jeremy Corbyn say that the firefighters at Grenfell Tower did a great job. I wouldn't be so sure:

    https://tinyurl.com/y72bwxgr
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2017
    Brent Crude down to 44.50

    https://www.bloomberg.com/energy
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,097
    Pulpstar said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I still don't understand how YouGov could have both been out by 6 points in their headline poll, and about right in the modelling derived from their polls. It's very odd. It was one reason why I was sceptical of the model.

    They bottled it on their final poll and herded
    Yes, the methodology for the individual polls was changed at the last minute. So strictly there are three varieties of YouGov:
    (1) The large model
    (2) The individual polls, original formulatiom
    (3) The indicidual polls, last-minute panic formulation.
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    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,967
    Passed the demo in Parliament Square on my way home. There were literally tens of them.
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Jonathan said:

    Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:

    Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:

    Is this the worst Tory administration since the war? Discuss.

    Partisan till the last, eh?

    You lost. And worse, the hard left are now cemented at the top of a once great party.

    I asked a perfectly reasonable question. It just occurred to me that John Major is actually better than this lot. Shocking though that thought might be. I guess they're rivalled only by Heath.
    Fair enough. Sounded more accusatory! Good old difficulty of tone interpretation online strikes again
    Weirdly not a wind up. Just reflecting on a remarkable fortnight and two years. Thus was not how Cameron planned it in May 2015. I wonder what he would do if someone had whispered in his ears what victory meant.
    Actually had a plan for what would follow a Leave vote...
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    ThomasNashe said:

    Passed the demo in Parliament Square on my way home. There were literally tens of them.

    Dozens surely.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    CarlottaVance said:

    RobD said:

    Roger said:

    Even the Queen doesn't approve of Brexit. She's making a point by wearing EU blue.

    What's the difference between EU blue and Tory blue? :D
    RGB:
    EU Blue: 0 : 51 : 153
    Tory Blue: 0 : 135 : 220

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flag_of_Europe
    http://blog.richardallen.co.uk/uk-political-party-web-colours/

    Curiously Labour's 'red' has a little bit of 'blue' in it - and no green...

    In any case, the queen's outfit was more RGB 100, 214, 213 or 'moderate blue' - having a bit of red in there as well....
    It's this sort of post that makes PB so great.
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    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    SDLP thoughts on DUP deal etc. https://sluggerotoole.com/2017/06/21/sdlp-leader-anticipates-the-con-dup-money-bonus/
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,372
    edited June 2017
    Come on, SA; you're not even trying.

    (edit, That's better, ABdV)
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,097
    edited June 2017
    RobD said:

    Chris said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Chris said:

    Sorry to harp on this, but we need to distinguish between the individual YouGov polls and the big YouGov model. The final projection of the big model had Labour at 38% - therefore an understatement of only two points; almost as good as Survation,

    Indeed, but presumably they used the same methodology and weighting, so you'd expect similar results. I suppose the difference might just have been statistical error, but it does seem a bit odd all the same.
    The methodology was different for the large model. For example, in the large model, turnout was based on historical turnout for the different demographic groups in 2010 and 2015.
    Hm, so they just got lucky with the model then?
    Well, the large model was based on a huge amount of data, and also apparently on quite sophisticated analysis. In general terms it always sounded to me like a sensible way to analyse the data. The only criticism I saw was based on the fact people found the projections unbelievable.

    So I think the view that they just got lucky would need to be backed up with some evidence.

    [Edited to add: Maybe your comment was based on the view that the unexpected result was due to big changes in turnout patterns since previous elections. I don't know that we have the data to show that yet.]
  • Options
    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    RobD said:

    Chris said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Chris said:

    Sorry to harp on this, but we need to distinguish between the individual YouGov polls and the big YouGov model. The final projection of the big model had Labour at 38% - therefore an understatement of only two points; almost as good as Survation,

    Indeed, but presumably they used the same methodology and weighting, so you'd expect similar results. I suppose the difference might just have been statistical error, but it does seem a bit odd all the same.
    The methodology was different for the large model. For example, in the large model, turnout was based on historical turnout for the different demographic groups in 2010 and 2015.
    Hm, so they just got lucky with the model then?
    The voting percentages were very similar between the regular polls and the large model until they put in their final-poll methodology change.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    tlg86 said:

    Delighted to see that Diane Abbott has made a full recovery.

    I've just heard Jeremy Corbyn say that the firefighters at Grenfell Tower did a great job. I wouldn't be so sure:

    https://tinyurl.com/y72bwxgr

    Good for the firefighters. I don't want to live in a country where, for instance, someone called out to rescue a person who's fallen in a lake won't go in to rescue them in case it "breaks protocols".
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    http://metro.co.uk/2017/06/20/people-are-pretending-they-lost-homes-in-grenfell-tower-to-get-money-6721541/
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    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    tlg86 said:

    Delighted to see that Diane Abbott has made a full recovery.

    I've just heard Jeremy Corbyn say that the firefighters at Grenfell Tower did a great job. I wouldn't be so sure:

    https://tinyurl.com/y72bwxgr

    What do you mean? The story as described in the article sounds a bit unlikely, but it doesn't suggest that the firefighters did a bad job.
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    NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    Brom said:

    nunu said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    nunu said:

    I don't think I've expressed this before. But as a LEAVER I must say thank you a million times to Corbyn.Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you for not campaigning for REMAIN as you did this GE. We couldn't have done it without you.

    Jezza's a sly old fox to be sure. He kept his head down during the EU Ref (making us all think he was useless) and got exactly what he wanted - Brexit, Dave destroyed and May in. Then he unleashed his campaigning genius during the GE and destroyed May. I don't now think anything is beyond his cunning.
    Soon he will of seen of 2 Tory PM's. He has been underestimated this whole time, and many PB tories are still doing it. smh.
    He was ridiculed but now he's definitely a serious threat. However seeing off 2 PMs and failing to take office is something of a Pyrrhic victory, the most popular kind of victories amongst the hard left
    :)
    Corbyn's speech was an alternative universe. His argument seemed to be we got lots of votes therefore we have a mandate and you don't even though you got more. It was weird - he has a good style though and made you want to believe him more ham robo-may.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Brom said:

    nunu said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    nunu said:

    I don't think I've expressed this before. But as a LEAVER I must say thank you a million times to Corbyn.Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you for not campaigning for REMAIN as you did this GE. We couldn't have done it without you.

    Jezza's a sly old fox to be sure. He kept his head down during the EU Ref (making us all think he was useless) and got exactly what he wanted - Brexit, Dave destroyed and May in. Then he unleashed his campaigning genius during the GE and destroyed May. I don't now think anything is beyond his cunning.
    Soon he will of seen of 2 Tory PM's. He has been underestimated this whole time, and many PB tories are still doing it. smh.
    He was ridiculed but now he's definitely a serious threat. However seeing off 2 PMs and failing to take office is something of a Pyrrhic victory, the most popular kind of victories amongst the hard left
    :)
    he only needs a small swing towards him to become biggest party and therefore PM. We must not be complacent.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    edited June 2017
    AndyJS said:

    tlg86 said:

    Delighted to see that Diane Abbott has made a full recovery.

    I've just heard Jeremy Corbyn say that the firefighters at Grenfell Tower did a great job. I wouldn't be so sure:

    https://tinyurl.com/y72bwxgr

    Good for the firefighters. I don't want to live in a country where, for instance, someone called out to rescue a person who's fallen in a lake won't go in to rescue them in case it "breaks protocols".
    Of course, but I think questions will be asked about what actually happened. Incidentally, it very much shoots the fox about numbers. They were there in time to put out the fridge fire.

    Also, I haven't seen this reported on the TV news which is pretty poor in my opinion.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Chris said:

    Yes, the methodology for the individual polls was changed at the last minute. So strictly there are three varieties of YouGov:
    (1) The large model
    (2) The individual polls, original formulatiom
    (3) The indicidual polls, last-minute panic formulation.

    Which is going to make it hard to know which YouGov polls to believe in future.

    Also, if as you say the large model was based on experience of turnout in 2010 and 2015, isn't that quite similar to what the other pollsters did?
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    nunu said:

    Brom said:

    nunu said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    nunu said:

    I don't think I've expressed this before. But as a LEAVER I must say thank you a million times to Corbyn.Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you for not campaigning for REMAIN as you did this GE. We couldn't have done it without you.

    Jezza's a sly old fox to be sure. He kept his head down during the EU Ref (making us all think he was useless) and got exactly what he wanted - Brexit, Dave destroyed and May in. Then he unleashed his campaigning genius during the GE and destroyed May. I don't now think anything is beyond his cunning.
    Soon he will of seen of 2 Tory PM's. He has been underestimated this whole time, and many PB tories are still doing it. smh.
    He was ridiculed but now he's definitely a serious threat. However seeing off 2 PMs and failing to take office is something of a Pyrrhic victory, the most popular kind of victories amongst the hard left
    :)
    he only needs a small swing towards him to become biggest party and therefore PM. We must not be complacent.
    So why is May still Pm? Looks like complacency.
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    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    A
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    Jonathan said:

    nunu said:

    Brom said:

    nunu said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    nunu said:

    I don't think I've expressed this before. But as a LEAVER I must say thank you a million times to Corbyn.Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you for not campaigning for REMAIN as you did this GE. We couldn't have done it without you.

    Jezza's a sly old fox to be sure. He kept his head down during the EU Ref (making us all think he was useless) and got exactly what he wanted - Brexit, Dave destroyed and May in. Then he unleashed his campaigning genius during the GE and destroyed May. I don't now think anything is beyond his cunning.
    Soon he will of seen of 2 Tory PM's. He has been underestimated this whole time, and many PB tories are still doing it. smh.
    He was ridiculed but now he's definitely a serious threat. However seeing off 2 PMs and failing to take office is something of a Pyrrhic victory, the most popular kind of victories amongst the hard left
    :)
    he only needs a small swing towards him to become biggest party and therefore PM. We must not be complacent.
    So why is May still Pm? Looks like complacency.
    She's the sacrificial lamb of Brexit.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    Dadge said:

    tlg86 said:

    Delighted to see that Diane Abbott has made a full recovery.

    I've just heard Jeremy Corbyn say that the firefighters at Grenfell Tower did a great job. I wouldn't be so sure:

    https://tinyurl.com/y72bwxgr

    What do you mean? The story as described in the article sounds a bit unlikely, but it doesn't suggest that the firefighters did a bad job.
    It certainly leaves a few more questions asked. How likely is it that firefighters wouldn't notice that they hadn't totally put out the fire? Perhaps the fridge wasn't the cause of the big fire.
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,097
    Stereotomy said:

    RobD said:

    Chris said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Chris said:

    Sorry to harp on this, but we need to distinguish between the individual YouGov polls and the big YouGov model. The final projection of the big model had Labour at 38% - therefore an understatement of only two points; almost as good as Survation,

    Indeed, but presumably they used the same methodology and weighting, so you'd expect similar results. I suppose the difference might just have been statistical error, but it does seem a bit odd all the same.
    The methodology was different for the large model. For example, in the large model, turnout was based on historical turnout for the different demographic groups in 2010 and 2015.
    Hm, so they just got lucky with the model then?
    The voting percentages were very similar between the regular polls and the large model until they put in their final-poll methodology change.
    Yes, they were a lot closer. But also the model, unlike the individual polls, included a seat-by-seat projection of the results. My impression is that was more accurate than, say, Survation's percentages plugged into third-party seat projectors.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,633
    I'd say I'll never let polls affect my thinking again but I will, I'm a creature of habit.
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    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    Nemtynakht said:

    Brom said:

    nunu said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    nunu said:

    I don't think I've expressed this before. But as a LEAVER I must say thank you a million times to Corbyn.Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you for not campaigning for REMAIN as you did this GE. We couldn't have done it without you.

    Jezza's a sly old fox to be sure. He kept his head down during the EU Ref (making us all think he was useless) and got exactly what he wanted - Brexit, Dave destroyed and May in. Then he unleashed his campaigning genius during the GE and destroyed May. I don't now think anything is beyond his cunning.
    Soon he will of seen of 2 Tory PM's. He has been underestimated this whole time, and many PB tories are still doing it. smh.
    He was ridiculed but now he's definitely a serious threat. However seeing off 2 PMs and failing to take office is something of a Pyrrhic victory, the most popular kind of victories amongst the hard left
    :)
    Corbyn's speech was an alternative universe. His argument seemed to be we got lots of votes therefore we have a mandate and you don't even though you got more. It was weird - he has a good style though and made you want to believe him more ham robo-may.
    It's a game. The narrative is that May's a loser and he's the cock of the walk. He's milking it for all he's worth. The image now is that he's strong and May's weak and he wants to maintain that in the hope that there's an election soon.
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,097
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Chris said:

    Yes, the methodology for the individual polls was changed at the last minute. So strictly there are three varieties of YouGov:
    (1) The large model
    (2) The individual polls, original formulatiom
    (3) The indicidual polls, last-minute panic formulation.

    Which is going to make it hard to know which YouGov polls to believe in future.

    Also, if as you say the large model was based on experience of turnout in 2010 and 2015, isn't that quite similar to what the other pollsters did?
    My impression is it was a lot more sophisticated. Certainly the results were very different.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,633
    Jonathan said:

    nunu said:

    Brom said:

    nunu said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    nunu said:

    I don't think I've expressed this before. But as a LEAVER I must say thank you a million times to Corbyn.Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you for not campaigning for REMAIN as you did this GE. We couldn't have done it without you.

    Jezza's a sly old fox to be sure. He kept his head down during the EU Ref (making us all think he was useless) and got exactly what he wanted - Brexit, Dave destroyed and May in. Then he unleashed his campaigning genius during the GE and destroyed May. I don't now think anything is beyond his cunning.
    Soon he will of seen of 2 Tory PM's. He has been underestimated this whole time, and many PB tories are still doing it. smh.
    He was ridiculed but now he's definitely a serious threat. However seeing off 2 PMs and failing to take office is something of a Pyrrhic victory, the most popular kind of victories amongst the hard left
    :)
    he only needs a small swing towards him to become biggest party and therefore PM. We must not be complacent.
    So why is May still Pm? Looks like complacency.
    Transition from May to PM X is inevitable, but the transition is still relatively tricky to handle, it's one reason some just gave up and suggested letting Corbyn run a minority government even though the numbers work even less than Tory minority (or indeed 'progressive alliance' vs ConDUP), simply because it is difficult and likely to lead to Labour winning in 2022 (assuming we get that far).
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    edited June 2017
    Why do people pay for polls that rarely work?

    Is it just to create headlines and sell fish and chip wrapping?
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    CarlottaVance said:

    Roger said:

    Even the Queen doesn't approve of Brexit. She's making a point by wearing EU blue.

    Its certainly sparking speculation:

    https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/877566999223840768

    Of course, it could be because this is her last Queen's Speech while we are in the EU.....
    Good grief all those Beefeater Corbynistas
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,581
    Jonathan said:

    ThomasNashe said:

    Passed the demo in Parliament Square on my way home. There were literally tens of them.

    Dozens surely.
    The dozen has been banned by the EU.

    That's why we're leaving.
This discussion has been closed.