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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: Queen’s Speech, Brexit negotia

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited June 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: Queen’s Speech, Brexit negotiations, LD leadership and the importance of the youth vote

On this week’s podcast, Keiran is joined by Dr Mark Pack of Lib Dem Newswire and Adam Drummond of Opinium.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    First.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    edited June 2017

    MikeL said:

    As for Con leadership ballot - difficult for that to be triggered during recess as MPs need to be present for MPs ballots.

    I guess May could stand down (as Con leader only) say 10 days before summer recess - then MPs ballots happen in that final 10 days before it then goes to the members over the summer.

    Does Maydup just tweak the parliamentary timetable to suit her own zombie government now? It really is risible.
    Zombie government. Exactly. Can't govern, but can't be removed.
  • AugustineAugustine Posts: 19
    Third?
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    'Tis the season of political documentaries http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b08w2chd
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771
    Quiet night. We need some controversy.

    Why don't I have any Labour Party MP friends? I used to have one, but he quit. Now I just have Tory MP friends.

    Next question: why on earth would anyone want to be an MP?
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    rcs1000 said:

    Quiet night. We need some controversy.

    Why don't I have any Labour Party MP friends? I used to have one, but he quit. Now I just have Tory MP friends.

    Next question: why on earth would anyone want to be an MP?

    Everyone should be an MP for 5 years. Pension crisis solved....
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    I think the heat has finally beaten PBers, at least the London wing. I'm flattened.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Off topic.

    On BBC news stories I can no longer click on comments then swap over to "highest rated". It just doesn't show them. Is this just me?

    E.g. Scroll down to view comments on here:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40345280

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    edited June 2017
    rcs1000 said:

    Quiet night. We need some controversy.

    Why don't I have any Labour Party MP friends? I used to have one, but he quit. Now I just have Tory MP friends.

    Next question: why on earth would anyone want to be an MP?

    No idea. I honestly don't understand it. Let me take a pretty big pay cut to get hassled by the public and not make a blind bit of difference.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    rcs1000 said:

    Quiet night. We need some controversy.

    Why don't I have any Labour Party MP friends? I used to have one, but he quit. Now I just have Tory MP friends.

    Next question: why on earth would anyone want to be an MP?

    To help improve the country? To represent their local area? Is public service not enough anymore?

    Declaration of interest - I've always thought it would be very interesting, too.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    Scott_P said:
    So the clock ticks remorselessly towards a 2nd referendum.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043

    I think the heat has finally beaten PBers, at least the London wing. I'm flattened.

    Four years ago my partner talked me into having one of these installed in the living room:

    http://www.fantasiaceilingfans.com/elite-ceiling-fan-range/

    Not cheap. But bliss in this weather.
  • SirBenjaminSirBenjamin Posts: 238

    I think the heat has finally beaten PBers, at least the London wing. I'm flattened.

    I badly need to buy a fan. Something that will properly cool us down at night. Anybody know if those fancy Dyson jobbies are worth the money or have any real engineering superiority, or are they just overpriced status symbols for tossers?

    Or indeed any other recommendations?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2017
    "Toxic gases released during Grenfell Tower fire may have caused some deaths

    Experts say insulation boards on the outside of Grenfell Tower may have filled flats with hydrogen cyanide when they caught fire."

    http://news.sky.com/story/toxic-gases-released-during-grenfell-tower-fire-may-have-caused-some-deaths-10922685
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281


    Off topic.

    On BBC news stories I can no longer click on comments then swap over to "highest rated". It just doesn't show them. Is this just me?

    E.g. Scroll down to view comments on here:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40345280

    I noticed the same thing earlier.

    I can also only read the latest 20 comments.

    When I click on More Comments it doesn't work either.

    Is it that you have to set up an account to see more comments or to sort as per your post?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,003
    edited June 2017
    AndyJS said:

    "Toxic gases released during Grenfell Tower fire may have caused some deaths

    Experts say insulation boards on the outside of Grenfell Tower may have filled flats with hydrogen cyanide when they caught fire."

    http://news.sky.com/story/toxic-gases-released-during-grenfell-tower-fire-may-have-caused-some-deaths-10922685

    So does toxic gases release from either type of cladding (banned and legal) Just goes from bad to worse
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    So the clock ticks remorselessly towards a 2nd referendum.
    How on earth do we get to a 2nd referendum? Corbyn WANTS Brexit. How hard is this for lefties to understand?

    Corbyn and McDonnell are almost certainly even more Hard Brexit than TMay.

    We are leaving. There is no feasible political route to reversing it. It is, however, quite probable that parliament will enforce a Softer Brexit.
    To quote from the theatre manager in Shakespeare in Love film:

    Philip Henslowe: Mr. Fennyman, allow me to explain about the theatre business. The natural condition is one of insurmountable obstacles on the road to imminent disaster.

    Hugh Fennyman: So what do we do?

    Philip Henslowe: Nothing. Strangely enough, it all turns out well.

    Hugh Fennyman: How?

    Philip Henslowe: I don't know. It's a mystery.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    MikeL said:


    Off topic.

    On BBC news stories I can no longer click on comments then swap over to "highest rated". It just doesn't show them. Is this just me?

    E.g. Scroll down to view comments on here:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40345280

    I noticed the same thing earlier.

    I can also only read the latest 20 comments.

    When I click on More Comments it doesn't work either.

    Is it that you have to set up an account to see more comments or to sort as per your post?

    I don't think you need an account just to view (certainly never needed to). Probably a bug in their software if it's affecting others.

  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    So the clock ticks remorselessly towards a 2nd referendum.
    How on earth do we get to a 2nd referendum? Corbyn WANTS Brexit. How hard is this for lefties to understand?

    Corbyn and McDonnell are almost certainly even more Hard Brexit than TMay.

    We are leaving. There is no feasible political route to reversing it. It is, however, quite probable that parliament will enforce a Softer Brexit.
    Yes, I think that's right. A second referendum is unlikely but with the Tory rebels now fired up the Frothers are in deep trouble. P.S. The Brexit Means Brexit documentary is pretty good on the Beeb.
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    Boris looks tired, old, and overweight.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922
    rcs1000 said:

    Quiet night. We need some controversy.

    Sunil's Great British Railway Journeys - 2017 Edition. Rail routes that Sunil has done for the first time - excludes journeys taken to reach said routes. Other routes were done for the first time in previous calendar years.

    January: Doncaster to Hull via Selby, Chester to Warrington Bank Quay, Warrington Bank Quay to Newton-le-Willows, Bermondsey Dive-under (London Bridge to New Cross Gate), Hayes & Harlington "new" bay platform, Heathrow Airport junction new layout (slow tracks).

    February: Sheffield to Lincoln, Swinton (Yorks.) to Fitzwilliam, Leeds to York (direct), Doncaster to Cleethorpes, Heathrow Airport junction new layout (fast tracks), Guide Bridge to Rose Hill, Leeds to Skipton, Deansgate to Leyland, Preston to Blackpool North, Blackpool Tramway (Fleetwood Ferry to Starr Gate), Manchester Victoria to Mirfield via Brighouse, Leeds to Sowerby Bridge via Bradford Interchange, Manchester Victoria to Stalybridge, Manchester Victoria to Southport, Wigan Wallgate to Kirkby, Chinley to Ashburys (Manchester), Preston to Ormskirk, Moorthorpe to Church Fenton (via Pontefract Baghill), West Ealing new bay platform (Greenford shuttle), Meadowhall to Leeds (via Barnsley and Castleford), Woodlesford to Normanton (direct), Kirkstall Forge to Ilkley, Guiseley to Bradford Forster Square, Frizinghall to Saltaire, Micklefield to Selby, York to Scarborough, Castleford to Knottingley, Pontefract Monkhill to Wakefield Kirkgate, Leeds to York (via Harrogate), Deansgate to Exchange Square (Metrolink), Manchester Victoria to Newton-le-Willows.

    March: Bolton to Hindley via Westhoughton, Oxford Road to Wigan NW (direct), Doncaster to Pontefract Monkhill, Wakefield Kirkgate to Mirfield, Brighouse to Halifax, Preston to Colne, Kirkham and Wesham to Blackpool South, Todmorden to Rose Grove (Burnley), Bolton to Clitheroe, Huddersfield to Barnsley, Newcastle Central to Airport (Metro), South Gosforth to St James via Whitley Bay (Metro), Newcastle Central to South Hylton (Metro), Pelaw to South Shields (Metro), Newcastle to Sunderland (via High Level Bridge), Newcastle to Carlisle (inc. Metrocentre via High Level Bridge), Sandwich to Minster (direct).

    April: Newington to Kemsley (direct), Swanage to Norden (Swanage Railway), Media City UK to Broadway (Metrolink, direct), Bidston to Wrexham Central.

    May: Preston to Carlisle, Shrewsbury to Aberystwyth, Aberystwyth Cliff Railway, Stapleton Road to Severn Beach, Knottingley to Goole, Skipton to Carlisle, Brighouse to Deighton.

    June: Hatfield & Stainforth to Gilberdyke, Hull to Seamer, Doncaster to Gainsborough Lea Road, Newark North Gate to Collingham, Lincoln to Barnetby, Hereford to Newport, Chester to Holyhead, Llandudno Junction to Llandudno, Great Orme Tramway (Llandudno Victoria to Summit), Lancaster to Barrow, Carnforth to Long Preston, Oxenholme to Windermere.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    I see the daily dose of 'let's be having May out' seems to have died down.

    Funny that; just media and opposition froth after all, eh?
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    rcs1000 said:

    Quiet night. We need some controversy.

    Sunil's Great British Railway Journeys - 2017 Edition. Rail routes that Sunil has done for the first time - excludes journeys taken to reach said routes. Other routes were done for the first time in previous calendar years.

    January: Doncaster to Hull via Selby, Chester to Warrington Bank Quay, Warrington Bank Quay to Newton-le-Willows, Bermondsey Dive-under (London Bridge to New Cross Gate), Hayes & Harlington "new" bay platform, Heathrow Airport junction new layout (slow tracks).

    ...

    April: Newington to Kemsley (direct), Swanage to Norden (Swanage Railway), Media City UK to Broadway (Metrolink, direct), Bidston to Wrexham Central.

    May: Preston to Carlisle, Shrewsbury to Aberystwyth, Aberystwyth Cliff Railway, Stapleton Road to Severn Beach, Knottingley to Goole, Skipton to Carlisle, Brighouse to Deighton.

    June: Hatfield & Stainforth to Gilberdyke, Hull to Seamer, Doncaster to Gainsborough Lea Road, Newark North Gate to Collingham, Lincoln to Barnetby, Hereford to Newport, Chester to Holyhead, Llandudno Junction to Llandudno, Great Orme Tramway (Llandudno Victoria to Summit), Lancaster to Barrow, Carnforth to Long Preston, Oxenholme to Windermere.
    That's not controversy Sunil! But very well done all the same.

    I could stir up plenty of controversy on here, but I think it would land me in a lot of trouble with the moderators to put it mildly!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    I badly need to buy a fan. Something that will properly cool us down at night. Anybody know if those fancy Dyson jobbies are worth the money or have any real engineering superiority, or are they just overpriced status symbols for tossers?

    Or indeed any other recommendations?

    Ceiling fan is the way to go. On the slowest setting, it is silent. On the fastest setting, I have woken up in the night too cold and had to turn it down.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Governments doing stuff is much overrated. Most of them live up to the old Mark Twain book review: "Your manuscript is both good and original; but the part that is good is not original, and the part that is original is not good."
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    SeanT said:

    I think the heat has finally beaten PBers, at least the London wing. I'm flattened.

    I badly need to buy a fan. Something that will properly cool us down at night. Anybody know if those fancy Dyson jobbies are worth the money or have any real engineering superiority, or are they just overpriced status symbols for tossers?

    Or indeed any other recommendations?
    I'm sitting in front of a new Dyson Cool. It does the job, and chills half a room, but it costs £250

    It looks OK, kinda space age. It's aesthetically nicer than fans which cost £30 from Argos. I am unconvinced it is worth the money if you have a large house and don't care about the odd ugly fan.
    How does it work? The laws of physics dictate that you can't cool the air without some form of refrigeration. In fact, fans without refrigeration warm the room up. Surely?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Scott_P said:

    I badly need to buy a fan. Something that will properly cool us down at night. Anybody know if those fancy Dyson jobbies are worth the money or have any real engineering superiority, or are they just overpriced status symbols for tossers?

    Or indeed any other recommendations?

    Ceiling fan is the way to go. On the slowest setting, it is silent. On the fastest setting, I have woken up in the night too cold and had to turn it down.
    My place in Shepherd's Bush had AC. It was a great investment.
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    Mortimer said:

    I see the daily dose of 'let's be having May out' seems to have died down.

    Funny that; just media and opposition froth after all, eh?

    Mortimer said:

    I see the daily dose of 'let's be having May out' seems to have died down.

    Funny that; just media and opposition froth after all, eh?

    Mortimer said:

    I see the daily dose of 'let's be having May out' seems to have died down.

    Funny that; just media and opposition froth after all, eh?

    Er no. That's just what you think.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,003
    My wife and I have made a concious decision to mute the TV whenever two or more politicians and a presenter talk politics. They all talk over each other, they all haven't a clue, and you end up seriously disturbed by the level of intellect on display.

    We are watching and reading less news and feeling all the better for it. Whatever will be, will be and at our age (mid 70's plus) there is more to life than constant political turmoil.

    I have no doubt that in the end we will have a soft Brexit as nothing else is at all likely.

    I will continue to post from time to time and will read the comments regularly but my priorities lie in a less confrontational atmosphere than present day politics.

    However I am not having a go at anyone on here whose diverse views are a credit to the site
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Mortimer said:

    I see the daily dose of 'let's be having May out' seems to have died down.

    Funny that; just media and opposition froth after all, eh?

    She's there on the basis of no one else being there to do it.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    edited June 2017
    Mortimer said:

    I see the daily dose of 'let's be having May out' seems to have died down.

    Funny that; just media and opposition froth after all, eh?

    Well one of the candidates for her job seems to had a Diane Abbott moment today.
  • O/T some pikeys have moved into the local park this evening. According to local plod, unless there's 6 or more, they can't use the powers they have to do anything about it. We have to wait for the council to do something. How shit is our law? Give them 10 minutes to move or their caravans get seized and destroyed.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    I see the daily dose of 'let's be having May out' seems to have died down.

    Funny that; just media and opposition froth after all, eh?

    She's there on the basis of no one else being there to do it.
    Oh absolutely. It's duty rather than anything else. But rumours of her political demise were premature.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Wondering if we're witnessing the final years of the Tory party.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Quiet night. We need some controversy.

    Why don't I have any Labour Party MP friends? I used to have one, but he quit. Now I just have Tory MP friends.

    Next question: why on earth would anyone want to be an MP?

    To help improve the country? To represent their local area? Is public service not enough anymore?

    Declaration of interest - I've always thought it would be very interesting, too.
    It varies, but it's usually some mixture of believing that they want to be part of a joint effort for a good cause and believing that they personally have a fair chance of becoming ministers and achieving great things. You start with both, and usually have to settle for part 1 - most MPs will not become ministers or will not achieve great things if they do, but they are still part of the joint effort. If you do it for money or an easy life, you have probably been misinformed.

    After all, why join a party? Or vote? You will probably not achieve anything on your own, but you're part of a joint enterprise which you think worthwhile.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    So the clock ticks remorselessly towards a 2nd referendum.
    How on earth do we get to a 2nd referendum? Corbyn WANTS Brexit. How hard is this for lefties to understand?

    Corbyn and McDonnell are almost certainly even more Hard Brexit than TMay.

    We are leaving. There is no feasible political route to reversing it. It is, however, quite probable that parliament will enforce a Softer Brexit.
    I don't see how Parliament enforces a softer Brexit, particularly with the Leader of the Opposition not pushing for one. Parliament would have to replace the current PM, but I don't think that a soft-Brexit PM would have a greater confidence of the House than the present PM.

    When a deal has been negotiated it will be presented to the Commons as take it or leave it. There is no way for the Commons to say that it would rather have a softer deal instead.

    I feel that our Constitution is badly failing in this situation, and I blame the referendum for this. There is no place in our Constitutional system for referenda. We must never allow politicians to avoid hard choices and debates by hiding behind the cop-out of a referendum. We'd be much better off if Brexit happened as a result of a majority government with a PM elected with a mandate and a specific plan for it.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    Jonathan said:

    Wondering if we're witnessing the final years of the Tory party.

    What's that smell?

    Yes; it's hubris. Newly favoured by electoral losers....
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    Sean

    Boris has managed to do worse than Diane on the radio - the guy is knackered I tell you.

    Mortimer

    Whatever gets you through the night. You are too young to know what an exhausted Tory government looks like
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    Jonathan said:

    Wondering if we're witnessing the final years of the Tory party.

    If Con can survive Blair they can survive anything...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Jonathan said:

    Wondering if we're witnessing the final years of the Tory party.

    Don't be ridiculous. A new leader and moves on BTL and we're looking at a landslide against Hard Left Labour.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,911
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    So the clock ticks remorselessly towards a 2nd referendum.
    How on earth do we get to a 2nd referendum? Corbyn WANTS Brexit. How hard is this for lefties to understand?

    Corbyn and McDonnell are almost certainly even more Hard Brexit than TMay.

    We are leaving. There is no feasible political route to reversing it. It is, however, quite probable that parliament will enforce a Softer Brexit.
    Parliament won't wear a "no deal" Brexit and that's where we're heading. Some sort of 2nd referendum might be the only way out of the impasse, can't see how else we resolve it. Would the Tories dare go to the country to ask for a mandate for "no deal"?
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Jonathan said:

    Wondering if we're witnessing the final years of the Tory party.

    Many people have forecast the end of the Tory party, or the Labour party for that matter. But they persist. I personally think that corruption will eventually bring them down, a bit like what happened with the Christian Democrats in Italy who had been in power continuously for 50 years after WW2, and as soon as they had seen off the Communists they imploded in the early to mid 1990's. I think a Corbyn premiership could be the long term nail in the coffin for them, but I'm not about to bet on it, my capital is better served elsewhere thankyou!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:

    Wondering if we're witnessing the final years of the Tory party.

    What's that smell?

    Yes; it's hubris. Newly favoured by electoral losers....
    No. Not hubris. Whilst no lover of Tories, concern is closer to what I feel . We have a weak government about to navigate the most difficult period in years. It could be brutal.
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    Laura K saying the DUP deal is in the shit. That said her predictions and analysis have been so poor it's probably going to be signed first thing in the morning.

    Laura K - the BBC's anti tipster
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263

    My wife and I have made a concious decision to mute the TV whenever two or more politicians and a presenter talk politics. They all talk over each other, they all haven't a clue, and you end up seriously disturbed by the level of intellect on display.

    We are watching and reading less news and feeling all the better for it. Whatever will be, will be and at our age (mid 70's plus) there is more to life than constant political turmoil.

    I have no doubt that in the end we will have a soft Brexit as nothing else is at all likely.

    I will continue to post from time to time and will read the comments regularly but my priorities lie in a less confrontational atmosphere than present day politics.

    However I am not having a go at anyone on here whose diverse views are a credit to the site

    Fair enough. I've found your comments much more interesting as you've become less partisan, and I try not to be too one-sided as well. I'm finding effective retirement from politics quite difficult, though - to an extent that I'd not appreciated, it was the Meaning of Life for me, and now the meaning is, um, ... having fun, I suppose. Duh.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,911
    Mortimer said:

    I see the daily dose of 'let's be having May out' seems to have died down.

    Funny that; just media and opposition froth after all, eh?


    May's safe for now because no Tory with any sense wants to head up the impending Brexit disaster. She's now the sacrificial lamb.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922
    hunchman said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Quiet night. We need some controversy.

    Sunil's Great British Railway Journeys - 2017 Edition. Rail routes that Sunil has done for the first time - excludes journeys taken to reach said routes. Other routes were done for the first time in previous calendar years.

    January: Doncaster to Hull via Selby, Chester to Warrington Bank Quay, Warrington Bank Quay to Newton-le-Willows, Bermondsey Dive-under (London Bridge to New Cross Gate), Hayes & Harlington "new" bay platform, Heathrow Airport junction new layout (slow tracks).

    ...

    April: Newington to Kemsley (direct), Swanage to Norden (Swanage Railway), Media City UK to Broadway (Metrolink, direct), Bidston to Wrexham Central.

    May: Preston to Carlisle, Shrewsbury to Aberystwyth, Aberystwyth Cliff Railway, Stapleton Road to Severn Beach, Knottingley to Goole, Skipton to Carlisle, Brighouse to Deighton.

    June: Hatfield & Stainforth to Gilberdyke, Hull to Seamer, Doncaster to Gainsborough Lea Road, Newark North Gate to Collingham, Lincoln to Barnetby, Hereford to Newport, Chester to Holyhead, Llandudno Junction to Llandudno, Great Orme Tramway (Llandudno Victoria to Summit), Lancaster to Barrow, Carnforth to Long Preston, Oxenholme to Windermere.
    That's not controversy Sunil! But very well done all the same.
    Thanks, Hunchman, good to see you posting on PB again!

  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    So the clock ticks remorselessly towards a 2nd referendum.
    How on earth do we get to a 2nd referendum? Corbyn WANTS Brexit. How hard is this for lefties to understand?

    Corbyn and McDonnell are almost certainly even more Hard Brexit than TMay.

    We are leaving. There is no feasible political route to reversing it. It is, however, quite probable that parliament will enforce a Softer Brexit.
    I don't see how Parliament enforces a softer Brexit, particularly with the Leader of the Opposition not pushing for one. Parliament would have to replace the current PM, but I don't think that a soft-Brexit PM would have a greater confidence of the House than the present PM.

    When a deal has been negotiated it will be presented to the Commons as take it or leave it. There is no way for the Commons to say that it would rather have a softer deal instead.

    I feel that our Constitution is badly failing in this situation, and I blame the referendum for this. There is no place in our Constitutional system for referenda. We must never allow politicians to avoid hard choices and debates by hiding behind the cop-out of a referendum. We'd be much better off if Brexit happened as a result of a majority government with a PM elected with a mandate and a specific plan for it.
    Yes. Injecting referendums into a representative democracy is the core of the problem. The entire thing has been an embarrassing farce from start to finish. However, I still expect a soft fudge in the end.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    MaxPB said:

    Jonathan said:

    Wondering if we're witnessing the final years of the Tory party.

    Don't be ridiculous. A new leader and moves on BTL and we're looking at a landslide against Hard Left Labour.
    Obviously unlikely and deliberately provocative. But the economic situation is pretty benign right now and the Tories are already struggling politically. Chuck in a mild recession in the years ahead and it could get very difficult for government with a population tired of austerity rhetoric.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    MaxPB said:

    Jonathan said:

    Wondering if we're witnessing the final years of the Tory party.

    Don't be ridiculous. A new leader and moves on BTL and we're looking at a landslide against Hard Left Labour.
    That's optimistic. Certainly, with the right changes to the tories the next election is no done deal for labour, but after 7+ years of Tory government a landslide (something not seen since 1983 for the tories) seems highly unlikely. Don't forget that at the end of the campaign May's shit campaign was already priced in and people still expected a convincing win because Corbyn is a toxic Marxist. It didn't work out like that because not only was May shit but the various IRA/Marxist accusations failed to cut through. No evidence that they will cut through next time either.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,837
    Jonathan said:

    Wondering if we're witnessing the final years of the Tory party.

    Come on! It is 2 weeks since some were predicting the demise of Labour. They are a very resilient bunch, able to ditch leaders and ideas at great speed, without missing a beat. They'll be around for a very long time. (As will Labour).
    However, they find themselves in a very peculiar bind atm, with little sign of an obvious way to square the circle. It is, however, all their own fault.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,003
    edited June 2017

    My wife and I have made a concious decision to mute the TV whenever two or more politicians and a presenter talk politics. They all talk over each other, they all haven't a clue, and you end up seriously disturbed by the level of intellect on display.

    We are watching and reading less news and feeling all the better for it. Whatever will be, will be and at our age (mid 70's plus) there is more to life than constant political turmoil.

    I have no doubt that in the end we will have a soft Brexit as nothing else is at all likely.

    I will continue to post from time to time and will read the comments regularly but my priorities lie in a less confrontational atmosphere than present day politics.

    However I am not having a go at anyone on here whose diverse views are a credit to the site

    Fair enough. I've found your comments much more interesting as you've become less partisan, and I try not to be too one-sided as well. I'm finding effective retirement from politics quite difficult, though - to an extent that I'd not appreciated, it was the Meaning of Life for me, and now the meaning is, um, ... having fun, I suppose. Duh.
    Thanks Nick - I am just trying to get back perspective - we all need to have more open views and be willing to reconsider our position if and when circumstances change. Those circumstances have changed dramatically recently and the threat by Airbus to North Wales wing manufacturing is not only worrying but very personal as my son in law holds down a senior role at the Broughton factory. There is a suggestion that a hard Brexit worked against the conservatives in north east Wales and Chester.

    It is for that reason that I now want a soft Brexit
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    Theresa "no deal is better than a bad deal" May testing out her approach with the DUP !

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/21/exclusive-dup-broke-talks-tories-36-hours-week-demand-2billion/
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    The Tory party is the political equivalent of Trigger's broom.
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928

    My wife and I have made a concious decision to mute the TV whenever two or more politicians and a presenter talk politics. They all talk over each other, they all haven't a clue, and you end up seriously disturbed by the level of intellect on display.

    We are watching and reading less news and feeling all the better for it. Whatever will be, will be and at our age (mid 70's plus) there is more to life than constant political turmoil.

    I have no doubt that in the end we will have a soft Brexit as nothing else is at all likely.

    I will continue to post from time to time and will read the comments regularly but my priorities lie in a less confrontational atmosphere than present day politics.

    However I am not having a go at anyone on here whose diverse views are a credit to the site

    Fair enough. I've found your comments much more interesting as you've become less partisan, and I try not to be too one-sided as well. I'm finding effective retirement from politics quite difficult, though - to an extent that I'd not appreciated, it was the Meaning of Life for me, and now the meaning is, um, ... having fun, I suppose. Duh.
    Poignant and really quite touching posts from both @Big_G_NorthWales and @NickPalmer
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    Jonathan said:

    Wondering if we're witnessing the final years of the Tory party.

    Not a chance. The Tories represent an ever-present strand of England and have a remarkable gift for reinvention. They'll bounce back - not least because Labour is not close to being a government in waiting and cannot be until the current leadership reaches out to the moderate and soft left MPs who would have to fill the vast majority of government positions should Labour win an election.


  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    Excellent podcast. Worth listening to.

    Unrelated to the podcast, I've been thinking about Corbyn's antipathy towards the EU. I think it is based on the current austerity agenda driven by Schäuble. For instance, Corbyn has complained bitterly about the treatment of Greece.

    But in other matters e.g. protection of workers rights, cooperation in science, security etc. he is supportive. And he has a relaxed view on immigration (except for exploitative use of cheap labour).

    When Schäuble departs, hopefully in September, the EU austerity agenda could gradually change, and growth and jobs rise up the agenda.

    The point I'm struggling to make is that Corbyn's attitude to the EU may change over the next year or two in a positive direction. And he's the one who is making the UK political weather. Who would have thought that a couple of months ago!
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    Jonathan said:

    The Tory party is the political equivalent of Trigger's broom.

    Hehe, that's quite droll.

    That said; modern conservatism is still largely underpinned by the Tamworth manifesto.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    OllyT said:

    Mortimer said:

    I see the daily dose of 'let's be having May out' seems to have died down.

    Funny that; just media and opposition froth after all, eh?


    May's safe for now because no Tory with any sense wants to head up the impending Brexit disaster. She's now the sacrificial lamb.

    Also the likely alternative - Boris - would be even worse than May. They need someone new to emerge and that will take a bit of time.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Jonathan said:

    Wondering if we're witnessing the final years of the Tory party.

    That's a bloody big call. Only party close to death right now is UKIP
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Quiet night. We need some controversy.

    Why don't I have any Labour Party MP friends? I used to have one, but he quit. Now I just have Tory MP friends.

    Next question: why on earth would anyone want to be an MP?

    To help improve the country? To represent their local area? Is public service not enough anymore?

    Declaration of interest - I've always thought it would be very interesting, too.
    It varies, but it's usually some mixture of believing that they want to be part of a joint effort for a good cause and believing that they personally have a fair chance of becoming ministers and achieving great things. You start with both, and usually have to settle for part 1 - most MPs will not become ministers or will not achieve great things if they do, but they are still part of the joint effort. If you do it for money or an easy life, you have probably been misinformed.

    After all, why join a party? Or vote? You will probably not achieve anything on your own, but you're part of a joint enterprise which you think worthwhile.
    Yep. That rings true. Thanks for sharing Nick.

  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    Jonathan said:

    The Tory party is the political equivalent of Trigger's broom.

    Hilariously referred to recently in the woefully undersubbed Evening Standard as Tigger's broom. I was scratching my head, trying to recall the relevant chapter in The House at Pooh Corner.


  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    A leftie friend of mine today - "is Corbyn deluded? How can we form a government with less [aaaahhh] seats than you lot?"

    My answer - "he's playing the political game"

    Response - "bloody politician, just like the rest of them I guess"

    I'm not sure this is going down as well as Corbyn thinks, there are loads of people who voted for him because he was a genuinely different choice than thee usual politicians, he didn't play the game, at least not openly enough for casual followers to notice.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Jonathan said:

    MaxPB said:

    Jonathan said:

    Wondering if we're witnessing the final years of the Tory party.

    Don't be ridiculous. A new leader and moves on BTL and we're looking at a landslide against Hard Left Labour.
    Obviously unlikely and deliberately provocative. But the economic situation is pretty benign right now and the Tories are already struggling politically. Chuck in a mild recession in the years ahead and it could get very difficult for government with a population tired of austerity rhetoric.
    Well yes they will probably be in oposition after 2022. But that is far from dead
  • TypoTypo Posts: 195
    Jonathan said:

    The Tory party is the political equivalent of Trigger's broom.

    The hubris!
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535
    MaxPB said:

    I'm not sure this is going down as well as Corbyn thinks, there are loads of people who voted for him because he was a genuinely different choice than thee usual politicians, he didn't play the game, at least not openly enough for casual followers to notice.

    I'm not convinced that another 5 years of people listening to the mad stuff that Corbyn and McDonnell* regularly come out with is going to do Labour any favours, and the press and public will take them a lot more seriously now given the last election results.

    * Break the US "blockade" of Cuba being his latest brainwave.
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    It's not clear to me why Heidi Allen is in the Tory party.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    Barnesian said:

    Excellent podcast. Worth listening to.

    Unrelated to the podcast, I've been thinking about Corbyn's antipathy towards the EU. I think it is based on the current austerity agenda driven by Schäuble. For instance, Corbyn has complained bitterly about the treatment of Greece.

    But in other matters e.g. protection of workers rights, cooperation in science, security etc. he is supportive. And he has a relaxed view on immigration (except for exploitative use of cheap labour).

    When Schäuble departs, hopefully in September, the EU austerity agenda could gradually change, and growth and jobs rise up the agenda.

    The point I'm struggling to make is that Corbyn's attitude to the EU may change over the next year or two in a positive direction. And he's the one who is making the UK political weather. Who would have thought that a couple of months ago!

    I think that it is almost literally only Corbyn and McDonnell inside Labour that hold such views on the EU - maybe Skinner and Hoey, too. It's generational - old time members of the far left hate the restrictions on state aid and how they prevent nationalisation and other relics of the 1970s. If push came to shove, Labour policy in this area would be determined by conference. And given the vast majority of MPs, CLPs, members and unions are pro-EU, Corbyn and McDonnell would have to compromise.

  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    Jonathan said:

    Wondering if we're witnessing the final years of the Tory party.

    Not a chance. The Tories represent an ever-present strand of England and have a remarkable gift for reinvention. They'll bounce back - not least because Labour is not close to being a government in waiting and cannot be until the current leadership reaches out to the moderate and soft left MPs who would have to fill the vast majority of government positions should Labour win an election.


    The only party that has more resilience than Labour is the Conservative and Unionist party. It has re-invented itself more times than Madonna.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Scott_P said:
    That's a shame. He could have told them about EU military union, and how British Armed Forces are being subsumed into that structure. I heard the phrase "EU-NATO" for the first time earlier this week. I think that rather gave the game away. Heck, on the continent they don't deny what is going on. It's rather funny that none of our politicians wish to talk about it, particularly those Tory MP's who know that the 52pc who voted to leave the EU 363 days ago would be truly horrified if they knew the reality. I think even some of the 48pc would too.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535

    And given the vast majority of MPs, CLPs, members and unions are pro-EU, Corbyn and McDonnell would have to compromise.

    Right, like Corbyn has compromised over Trident, "I won't ever use it, and we still might scrap it". That sort of compromise where he simply ignores his party.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Scott_P said:
    Smart choice. Glasto will be a whole bunch more fun.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    Scott_P said:
    He's done for now the Sun have taken against him. Oh, wait a mo tho...
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    So the clock ticks remorselessly towards a 2nd referendum.
    How on earth do we get to a 2nd referendum? Corbyn WANTS Brexit. How hard is this for lefties to understand?

    Corbyn and McDonnell are almost certainly even more Hard Brexit than TMay.

    We are leaving. There is no feasible political route to reversing it. It is, however, quite probable that parliament will enforce a Softer Brexit.
    I don't see how Parliament enforces a softer Brexit, particularly with the Leader of the Opposition not pushing for one. Parliament would have to replace the current PM, but I don't think that a soft-Brexit PM would have a greater confidence of the House than the present PM.

    When a deal has been negotiated it will be presented to the Commons as take it or leave it. There is no way for the Commons to say that it would rather have a softer deal instead.

    I feel that our Constitution is badly failing in this situation, and I blame the referendum for this. There is no place in our Constitutional system for referenda. We must never allow politicians to avoid hard choices and debates by hiding behind the cop-out of a referendum. We'd be much better off if Brexit happened as a result of a majority government with a PM elected with a mandate and a specific plan for it.
    I think referendums are a great idea and we should have more of them. Too much of our parliamentary politics is now dominated by the party system and MPs do not, as a rule, put their constituents or their country first.

    If all votes in Parliament were free votes without the use of the whips to make MPs vote along party lines then I would agree with you about referendums but as long as the MPs are making decisions based on bribery or threats from their own party then we do not have a representative democracy and referendums are the only way to actual get the voice of the people heard.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    glw said:

    And given the vast majority of MPs, CLPs, members and unions are pro-EU, Corbyn and McDonnell would have to compromise.

    Right, like Corbyn has compromised over Trident, "I won't ever use it, and we still might scrap it". That sort of compromise where he simply ignores his party.
    Let's be frank, Corbyn has never let anything get in the way of his stubbornness.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    Barnesian said:

    Excellent podcast. Worth listening to.

    Unrelated to the podcast, I've been thinking about Corbyn's antipathy towards the EU. I think it is based on the current austerity agenda driven by Schäuble. For instance, Corbyn has complained bitterly about the treatment of Greece.

    But in other matters e.g. protection of workers rights, cooperation in science, security etc. he is supportive. And he has a relaxed view on immigration (except for exploitative use of cheap labour).

    When Schäuble departs, hopefully in September, the EU austerity agenda could gradually change, and growth and jobs rise up the agenda.

    The point I'm struggling to make is that Corbyn's attitude to the EU may change over the next year or two in a positive direction. And he's the one who is making the UK political weather. Who would have thought that a couple of months ago!

    I think that it is almost literally only Corbyn and McDonnell inside Labour that hold such views on the EU - maybe Skinner and Hoey, too. It's generational - old time members of the far left hate the restrictions on state aid and how they prevent nationalisation and other relics of the 1970s. If push came to shove, Labour policy in this area would be determined by conference. And given the vast majority of MPs, CLPs, members and unions are pro-EU, Corbyn and McDonnell would have to compromise.

    What does the far-left think of the free movement of capital?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    glw said:

    And given the vast majority of MPs, CLPs, members and unions are pro-EU, Corbyn and McDonnell would have to compromise.

    Right, like Corbyn has compromised over Trident, "I won't ever use it, and we still might scrap it". That sort of compromise where he simply ignores his party.

    It would free all Labour MPs up to back soft Brexit, oppose hard Brexit and even vote in favour of a second referendum without repurcussions. Corbyn and McDonnell would then have to decide what to do with their two votes.

  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    glw said:

    And given the vast majority of MPs, CLPs, members and unions are pro-EU, Corbyn and McDonnell would have to compromise.

    Right, like Corbyn has compromised over Trident, "I won't ever use it, and we still might scrap it". That sort of compromise where he simply ignores his party.
    Indeed. Up to now he has simply ignored the PLP on many issues, and now 35 new Labour MP's owe their election to him so will show him loyalty.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Scott_P said:
    Who cares? Really? When did Armed Forces Day become a thing, and who goes to Glastonbury to listen to political speeches? I'd have thought Glasto could easily backfire, and if the Sun and its rentaquote Tory MPs really cared about AF Day, they'd have noticed before "it emerged last night".
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,749
    edited June 2017
    Jonathan said:

    The Tory party is the political equivalent of Trigger's broom.

    Though they'd much rather think of themselves as Theseus's ship.
    The ponces.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Mortimer said:

    glw said:

    And given the vast majority of MPs, CLPs, members and unions are pro-EU, Corbyn and McDonnell would have to compromise.

    Right, like Corbyn has compromised over Trident, "I won't ever use it, and we still might scrap it". That sort of compromise where he simply ignores his party.
    Let's be frank, Corbyn has never let anything get in the way of his stubbornness.
    It has served him well uo till now, why would he back down now?
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    glw said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm not sure this is going down as well as Corbyn thinks, there are loads of people who voted for him because he was a genuinely different choice than thee usual politicians, he didn't play the game, at least not openly enough for casual followers to notice.

    I'm not convinced that another 5 years of people listening to the mad stuff that Corbyn and McDonnell* regularly come out with is going to do Labour any favours, and the press and public will take them a lot more seriously now given the last election results.

    * Break the US "blockade" of Cuba being his latest brainwave.
    His foreign poilcy idea's will be a hell for this country.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535

    glw said:

    And given the vast majority of MPs, CLPs, members and unions are pro-EU, Corbyn and McDonnell would have to compromise.

    Right, like Corbyn has compromised over Trident, "I won't ever use it, and we still might scrap it". That sort of compromise where he simply ignores his party.

    It would free all Labour MPs up to back soft Brexit, oppose hard Brexit and even vote in favour of a second referendum without repurcussions. Corbyn and McDonnell would then have to decide what to do with their two votes.

    Ah the "moderates" strike back. I'll believe it when I see it.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535
    nunu said:

    glw said:

    And given the vast majority of MPs, CLPs, members and unions are pro-EU, Corbyn and McDonnell would have to compromise.

    Right, like Corbyn has compromised over Trident, "I won't ever use it, and we still might scrap it". That sort of compromise where he simply ignores his party.
    Indeed. Up to now he has simply ignored the PLP on many issues, and now 35 new Labour MP's owe their election to him so will show him loyalty.
    Never mind the new MPs, the old ones who tried to dump him are kissing his arse now.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    MaxPB said:

    A leftie friend of mine today - "is Corbyn deluded? How can we form a government with less [aaaahhh] seats than you lot?"

    My answer - "he's playing the political game"

    Response - "bloody politician, just like the rest of them I guess"

    I'm not sure this is going down as well as Corbyn thinks, there are loads of people who voted for him because he was a genuinely different choice than thee usual politicians, he didn't play the game, at least not openly enough for casual followers to notice.

    Don't they teach history these days. Look up the results of the 1923 general election.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    edited June 2017
    DUP wants £1bn more for NHS in Northern Ireland.

    Not sure if that's per year - and if so which year it would relate to - but given that NI is about 3% of the UK it would potentially be an astonishingly large amount - equivalent to about £30bn across the whole UK.

    Given that the NHS (England) budget is just over £100bn it would be an increase of about 25% - far, far greater than even the likes of Corbyn has in mind.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Scott_P said:
    Who cares? Really? When did Armed Forces Day become a thing, and who goes to Glastonbury to listen to political speeches? I'd have thought Glasto could easily backfire, and if the Sun and its rentaquote Tory MPs really cared about AF Day, they'd have noticed before "it emerged last night".
    AF day is a very recent invention, made in the dog days of the Blair government to try to make up for the Iraq war fiasco. We have Remembrance Sunday as a more venerable tradition.
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928

    Scott_P said:
    Who cares? Really? When did Armed Forces Day become a thing, and who goes to Glastonbury to listen to political speeches? I'd have thought Glasto could easily backfire, and if the Sun and its rentaquote Tory MPs really cared about AF Day, they'd have noticed before "it emerged last night".
    I had never heard of Armed Forces Day before reading that tweet.

    Tomorrow is Bobajob Day, every poster on PB must masquerade as me. If you don't, I'm telling The Sun what emerged tonight.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    glw said:

    glw said:

    And given the vast majority of MPs, CLPs, members and unions are pro-EU, Corbyn and McDonnell would have to compromise.

    Right, like Corbyn has compromised over Trident, "I won't ever use it, and we still might scrap it". That sort of compromise where he simply ignores his party.

    It would free all Labour MPs up to back soft Brexit, oppose hard Brexit and even vote in favour of a second referendum without repurcussions. Corbyn and McDonnell would then have to decide what to do with their two votes.

    Ah the "moderates" strike back. I'll believe it when I see it.

    Lots of Labour members and CLPs oppose Trident. That gives Corbyn leverage. He just doesn't have that with his views on the EU. The dynamic is very different as a consequence. We've already seen 50 Labour MPs come out specifically in favour of continued membership of the single market to absolutely no condemnation from anyone inside the party.

  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    Scott_P said:
    Who cares? Really? When did Armed Forces Day become a thing, and who goes to Glastonbury to listen to political speeches? I'd have thought Glasto could easily backfire, and if the Sun and its rentaquote Tory MPs really cared about AF Day, they'd have noticed before "it emerged last night".
    I had never heard of Armed Forces Day before reading that tweet.

    Tomorrow is Bobajob Day, every poster on PB must masquerade as me. If you don't, I'm telling The Sun what emerged tonight.
    Luckily there are enough past usernames to share around :)
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535

    Lots of Labour members and CLPs oppose Trident. That gives Corbyn leverage. He just doesn't have that with his views on the EU. The dynamic is very different as a consequence. We've already seen 50 Labour MPs come out specifically in favour of continued membership of the single market to absolutely no condemnation from anyone inside the party.

    Though they haven't actually done anything yet. We will have to wait and see how many backbones the Labour MPs have between them. I'm not convinced that Corbyn is going to have much trouble getting his own way.
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    Mortimer said:

    Scott_P said:
    Who cares? Really? When did Armed Forces Day become a thing, and who goes to Glastonbury to listen to political speeches? I'd have thought Glasto could easily backfire, and if the Sun and its rentaquote Tory MPs really cared about AF Day, they'd have noticed before "it emerged last night".
    I had never heard of Armed Forces Day before reading that tweet.

    Tomorrow is Bobajob Day, every poster on PB must masquerade as me. If you don't, I'm telling The Sun what emerged tonight.
    Luckily there are enough past usernames to share around :)
    Indeed. I'll be expecting a convincing performance from you Mortimer, no excuses about the heat please.
This discussion has been closed.