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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Damian Green – my 70/1 longshot to be next CON leader
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Damian Green – my 70/1 longshot to be next CON leader
One of TMay’s appointments that didn’t get much attention in the post GE2017 reshuffle was that of Damian Green as First Secretary of State. He’s effectively her deputy and looks set to be the safe pair of hands that gets put up to be interviewed when things look tricky. This is likely to happen a lot given the lack of a parliamentary majority.
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Always liked him, Dave sacking him a few years ago was a mistake by Cameron.
Crucially Damian Green doesn't have any enemies in the party, and people still admire him after his scandalous arrest in 2008.
Con need to keep Theresa May until Brexit is done and then move to a fresh face to renew themselves.
There is plenty of talent on the backbences. Mrs May should promote some of that talent to the Cabinet in the next 12 months with a view to one of them taking over in 2019.
Can't see him becoming leader, but maybe that'll work as a trading bet. Same odds as Button was to win the title in 2009, though.
A good bet from Mike, 19.5 on Betfair now!!
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28051208/market?marketId=1.125574963
All this stuff about hard/soft Brexit seems pointless to me now the DUP have confirmed they are in favour of leaving the single market and customs union and will be voting with the government?
Even accounting for Con rebellions from the likes of Clarke and Soubry the government should still have the numbers for the Brexit they want (especially as you'll have a few people on the Labour side like Field and Hoey also voting with the government)
Looks like we're leaving the single market and customs union. The only question is whether there's any transitional arrangements and if so how long they last.
If she gets to Conservative conference her position will probably be secure until Brexit it done. At that point she can probably start to think about a proper reshuffle and getting some fresh faces into the Cabinet.
Not sure Green comes across as PM material.
President of the TRG is Ken Clarke, Vice President if Damian Green.
So unless he joins the Lib Dems he's got no chance
Green may well be a breath of fresh air if it comes to it.
A breath of fresh air would be Stewart or Kwarteng. Less so Damien Green.
Unsure of Davis.
Hammond is perhaps the best bet for the Conservatives.
Mr. Eagles, cheers, though I'm not sure saying Green is Ken Clarke's deputy will unite the party behind him
Brighton Pavilion Klaxon Alert.
https://twitter.com/pa/status/877806565344006144
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/877817998450585600
When a party has Lucy Frazer, Kwasi Kwarteng and Jonny Mercer wasted in its lower echelons, it does not need to look towards Damien Green. The likes of Davis, Johnson, Green, Fox should not be allowed anywhere near the leadership.
Wrong type of immigrants ?
Corbyn's response back to his weak level.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4627286/Justine-Greening-lost-job-ordering-English.html
I don't know much about about the individuals but I do think after Theresa May it'll be time for fresh faces and renewal... That's the only way to take on Jezza (who might be looking rather old hat by 2019/2020 as well)
I think he'd be quite similar to May in his aims and way of working, not sure that's enough of a change given the election result. But who knows - maybe there is inner charm and a uniting manner I haven't picked up on.
That can't be right, I thought that since the referendum vote Britain had become so horrible that nobody wanted to come here, and that Remainers were fleeing to safety. Hmmm.June 2016. So ignore my post.
A day or so ago Patrick made a comment about immigration in Germany and how it was less of an issue as it offset a lower birth rate.
I thought, is that true? Anyway I went a looked up some figures and it was basically correct. The German population is steady and projected to decline a little by the 2030s. On the other hand the UK population will blast past 70 million long before 2030 it now seems, and might even exceed that of Germany by 2050.
The Labour MP David Lammy says a woman that he and his wife mentored died in the fire. He asks why more is not being said about the criminal investigation.
Err, because it's a criminal investigation, you idiot.
And it won't really matter if she makes enemies once her postilion is secure because she'll be resigning after Brexit is signed anyway.
I think the timetable works something like this:
1. TM gets to 2017 Con conference.
2. Autumn/Winter 2017/18 she has a thorough reshuffle. Gets rid of several cabinet ministers and promotes plenty of fresh talent.
3. We leave the EU in March 2019 and TM resigns sometime shortly afterwards.
4. New Con leader (hopefully a fresh face) takes over by 2019 Con conference.
5. Possible general election in Spring 2020.
What is Italian for chip on the shoulder?
See this example of the investigation into a recent fire here in Dubai:
http://www.thenational.ae/business/property/revealed-how-the-address-downtown-dubai-hotel-fire-test-was-meaningless
Interesting piece on Today this morning. Brexit-voting farm manager angry that Brexit is making it difficult to recruit, and wants clarity from govt so that eastern Europeans aren't put off now, and will be welcome in future.
He also pointed out that only one Brit has worked for him in 5 years, and he only lasted one day.
One helpful point is that it appears from the photos that the cladding remains in place unharmed on the lower part of the building, so they'll very easily be able to assess exactly how it was fitted.
Put most broadly, the reason is 50/50 between net working age immigration and baby boomers aging and filling out the population tree. Our population rises by about 3-4m over the next generation even without the former, but would be very top heavy on pensioners.
The ideal net immigration numbers reduce that top heaviness in the short-term, but allow population to plateau and perhaps edge down slowly once baby boomers die off in greater numbers. The sweet spot for current net immigration is 100-150k per year, but obviously that would vary as the demographics develop.
He added: “From Hillsborough to the child sex abuse scandal to Grenfell Tower, the pattern is consistent. Working class people’s voices are ignored, their concerns dismissed by those in power.
There's a team of experienced people who are investigating this accident, we need to give them the resources to get their job done quickly and thoroughly before paying close attention to their reports. As much as everyone would like this to be done in a week, in the real world these things take time to do properly.
Hopefuly she is now also getting over what must have been the hugely confidence-sapping shock of the election disaster.
They demand answers that are simply impossible to provide without proper investigation
http://www.itv.com/news/2017-06-22/uk-population-sees-sharpest-rise-in-70-years/
https://twitter.com/zoeconway1/status/877801383281524736
Although physically pretty tough it used to be quite good fun meeting lots of other young people.
If I had more money to 'risk' in betting scenarios I might be tempted on this one.
Green was absolutely right (McDonnell doesn't know jack about the Bond markets) but he came over as too gentile and avuncular.
Nice guy. Clever guy. Competent guy. Not enough grit.
And he doesn't have hair.
You took the words right out of my mouth.
And I swear it's true,
I was just about to say I love you.
- Jim Steinman / Meatloaf
Then she'll be ok for another 22 months.
She's not there yet (not by a long stretch) but she's starting to get a grip.
I am going to guess, seasonal.