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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Cost to tax-payers of TMay’s calamitous election decision and

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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,121

    "EU citizens will be able to bring spouses to the UKon the same basis as British citizens"

    Which is less than the EU wants.....

    That means they can bring their spouses to the UK only if their income is £18.6k or more, yes?

    The spouses of people on low incomes have to stay out.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,653
    Chris said:

    "EU citizens will be able to bring spouses to the UKon the same basis as British citizens"

    Which is less than the EU wants.....

    That means they can bring their spouses to the UK only if their income is £18.6k or more, yes?

    The spouses of people on low incomes have to stay out.
    Yes.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,329
    calum said:

    May will be pleased with that statement of support from Ruth Davidson.

    Statement of weakness !
    I am delighted your fellow countrymen and women have elected to maintain the Conservative government in power.

    Brave patriots.
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    calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    The SNP grievance machine is back in business !!
    https://twitter.com/theSNP/status/879337050566209536
  • Options
    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    isam said:
    Fairly standard PIRA SOPs, at Warrenpoint most notably.

    What is true - that they did this, or did Jezza mention it on stage?
    That they did it I guess
    So did he mention it? Sorry not sure what point the tweet was making.
    Oh well, you'll live!
    Sam why don't you explain to me what point he, and you are making.

    Here we are on a discussion board and I am trying to do my bit. The speech bubble references a PIRA MO. K. There is obviously some connection with Jeremy Corbyn, because it is his speech bubble.

    So what are you trying to prove or show by reposting it? Because surely you must know? Surely....
    Zzzzzzzz
    So you post what you think is a witty, incisive, acute tweet. And have absolutely no idea what it is supposed to mean.

    Is my only reading of the issue.
    It's just a lump of shit aimed at Jeremy Corbyn.

    You know, the kind of thing that would be an absolute outrage if it was heading in the opposite direction.
    BUT I STILL WANT TO KNOW WHAT IS A "TRUE STORY"!!! :smile:

    Did Jezza say it at Glasto?
    Nope.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,298
    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    Chris said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    isam said:
    Fairly standard PIRA SOPs, at Warrenpoint most notably.

    What is true - that they did this, or did Jezza mention it on stage?
    That they did it I guess
    So did he mention it? Sorry not sure what point the tweet was making.
    Oh well, you'll live!
    Sam why don't you explain to me what point he, and you are making.

    Here we are on a discussion board and I am trying to do my bit. The speech bubble references a PIRA MO. K. There is obviously some connection with Jeremy Corbyn, because it is his speech bubble.

    So what are you trying to prove or show by reposting it? Because surely you must know? Surely....
    Zzzzzzzz
    So you post what you think is a witty, incisive, acute tweet. And have absolutely no idea what it is supposed to mean.

    Is my only reading of the issue.
    It's just a lump of shit aimed at Jeremy Corbyn.

    You know, the kind of thing that would be an absolute outrage if it was heading in the opposite direction.
    BUT I STILL WANT TO KNOW WHAT IS A "TRUE STORY"!!! :smile:

    Did Jezza say it at Glasto?
    Of course he didn't, don't be ridiculous.
    Right. What a shit tweet, then.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,586
    edited June 2017

    Can my fellow Tories explain why an Ed Miliband government sending money to the SNP was bad but sending money to the DUP is good?

    No particular reason.
    It's probably bad policy to spend government money to pay for votes (and probably won't do much for the efficiency of that spending) - but infrastructure, telecoms etc in NI are by no means wasted money. Might even qualify as genuine 'investment'.
    And, to look on the bright side, it could have been going to subsidise wood chip boilers.

    The triple lock continuation, and winter fuel bungs for wealthy pensioners are perhaps another matter... not that Corbyn would have done anything different.

    (edit - should point out again that I'm not a fellow Tory.)
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,274

    IanB2 said:

    Lady S isn't party to the C&S agreement and therefore must be counted as opposition, despite any speculation about her likely voting patterns.

    Yep, that's why I said the 'official' answer should be 13.
    As did I, first I think, after a small brain fart with 11 ;)

    Mike's 328 and 15 numbers in the amended lead cannot both be correct?
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,329

    David Cameron showing the class today that George Osborne has always lacked.

    Yet when you point out May's numerous occasions where she's lacked class you get called a posh boy.
    David Cameron has shown who's the bigger man.
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,995
    calum said:
    Pretty sure it's on mature.nl. Or something that looks very like it anyway. With added piss.
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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    DavidL said:

    Imagine the power the Scottish Conservative and Unionist party would have currently if it did set up as a distinct entity. Power and also a degree of separation from the English Tories. Can't help thinking this deal is very good news for both the SNP and Labour in Scotland. Westminster is taking Team Davidson for granted - and there is nothing Ruth can do.

    I think a separate Scottish conservative and UNIONIST party is increasingly likely on the back of this deal. May not be a bad thing.
    +1
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited June 2017
    DavidL said:

    Imagine the power the Scottish Conservative and Unionist party would have currently if it did set up as a distinct entity. Power and also a degree of separation from the English Tories. Can't help thinking this deal is very good news for both the SNP and Labour in Scotland. Westminster is taking Team Davidson for granted - and there is nothing Ruth can do.

    I think a separate Scottish conservative and UNIONIST party is increasingly likely on the back of this deal. May not be a bad thing.
    Murdo Fraser must be tamping - loses the leadership election to a person who only has success once she steals his big idea.
  • Options

    David Cameron showing the class today that George Osborne has always lacked.

    Yet when you point out May's numerous occasions where she's lacked class you get called a posh boy.
    Sacking Osborne was pure class. He behaves like a child.
    Osborne is now a businessman - a good front page shifts papers.
    If it comes at the expense of a now derided former colleague - well that's a bonus!
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    edited June 2017
    Labours money forest must have a tory magic money tree in there,the tree that keeps on giving.

    ;-)
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,121

    Chris said:

    "EU citizens will be able to bring spouses to the UKon the same basis as British citizens"

    Which is less than the EU wants.....

    That means they can bring their spouses to the UK only if their income is £18.6k or more, yes?

    The spouses of people on low incomes have to stay out.
    Yes.
    It's OK. Poor people don't really feel things in the same way as proper people.
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    PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    DavidL said:

    David Cameron's open hand of friendship to the Lib Dems to form the Coalition was genuinely inspirational, the Coalition Agreement is a masterpiece of a document that students of our Constitution will pore over for years and it led to a stable government very much in the national interest in very difficult times.
    This, this is just grubby. There will be a price to be paid and not just by the taxpayer. But given the calamitous election result it may well be a case of a bad deal being better than no deal (to coin a phrase). Ugh.

    DavidL, I have the impression that you are, very slowly, moving back into the Lib Dem column....
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    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    Is this PB thread a race to the bottom?

    First we have a strong competitor for the worst political tweet in history; now we have the spectacle of several grown political anoraks struggling to calculate the size of the Maydup majority (I include myself in the latter)
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,926
    edited June 2017
    DavidL said:

    How many politics enthusiasts does it take to calculate a majority...

    The official count should definitely be 13. We can only get to 15 by assuming the independent unionist (Lady Sylvia) is voting with the government too.

    318 Tories + 10 UUP - 2 (speaker & deputy) = 326
    262 Lab + 35 SNP + 12 Lib Dem + 4 Plaid + 1 Green + 1 Ind - 2 (deputy speakers) = 313

    326 - 313 = 13

    But that creates another problem. The unfortunate number 13 is usually solved by bringing along a hobbit and we already have one as Speaker. Is the convention that the Speaker votes with the government in the event of a tie enough?
    You are forgetting the two Labour deputy speakers, and Eleanor Laing.

    The speaker votes theoretically votes with the government, and Lindsay Hoyle votes with the opposition.
    Engel's Labour replacement will vote in theory with the opposition, and Eleanor Laing will in theory vote with the Government.

    Since none of the 4 vote by convention there is no effect.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,329

    Is this PB thread a race to the bottom?

    First we have a strong competitor for the worst political tweet in history; now we have the spectacle of several grown political anoraks struggling to calculate the size of the Maydup majority (I include myself in the latter)

    You must be tired.

    Go to bed.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,280
    PClipp said:

    DavidL said:

    David Cameron's open hand of friendship to the Lib Dems to form the Coalition was genuinely inspirational, the Coalition Agreement is a masterpiece of a document that students of our Constitution will pore over for years and it led to a stable government very much in the national interest in very difficult times.
    This, this is just grubby. There will be a price to be paid and not just by the taxpayer. But given the calamitous election result it may well be a case of a bad deal being better than no deal (to coin a phrase). Ugh.

    DavidL, I have the impression that you are, very slowly, moving back into the Lib Dem column....
    If I was in England I would probably already be there. In Scotland, no. The Union is the most important thing to me and Ruth (like Cameron) is the sort of Tory I am very comfortable with. Socially liberal and economically sensible.

    The current government has an extremely important job to do for the sake of UK plc and as a patriot I really hope they do it well. I have trepidations about it though and no real affection.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,927
    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    isam said:
    Fairly standard PIRA SOPs, at Warrenpoint most notably.

    What is true - that they did this, or did Jezza mention it on stage?
    That they did it I guess
    So did he mention it? Sorry not sure what point the tweet was making.
    Oh well, you'll live!
    Sam why don't you explain to me what point he, and you are making.

    Here we are on a discussion board and I am trying to do my bit. The speech bubble references a PIRA MO. K. There is obviously some connection with Jeremy Corbyn, because it is his speech bubble.

    So what are you trying to prove or show by reposting it? Because surely you must know? Surely....
    Zzzzzzzz
    So you post what you think is a witty, incisive, acute tweet. And have absolutely no idea what it is supposed to mean.

    Is my only reading of the issue.
    Well that's not true, it's you who doesn't get it. But even if I did that, so what?
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,280
    Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    Imagine the power the Scottish Conservative and Unionist party would have currently if it did set up as a distinct entity. Power and also a degree of separation from the English Tories. Can't help thinking this deal is very good news for both the SNP and Labour in Scotland. Westminster is taking Team Davidson for granted - and there is nothing Ruth can do.

    I think a separate Scottish conservative and UNIONIST party is increasingly likely on the back of this deal. May not be a bad thing.
    Murdo Fraser must be tamping - loses the leadership election to a person who only has success once she steals his big idea.
    In fairness she has had a lot of success, in Holyrood, in local government and now in Westminster. Not sure Murdo would have achieved this.
  • Options
    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    David Cameron showing the class today that George Osborne has always lacked.

    Yet when you point out May's numerous occasions where she's lacked class you get called a posh boy.
    Sacking Osborne was pure class. He behaves like a child.
    Osborne is now a businessman - a good front page shifts papers.
    If it comes at the expense of a now derided former colleague - well that's a bonus!
    And by her very actions and awkward personality then there are good reasons to deride the PM
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    DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    ID cards !
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    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341

    Con + Spkr + DUP: 328
    Others exc SF: 315

    Majority 13. Speaker and one Con deputy and two Lab deputies cancel.

    It seems one of the many absurdities of our system that 4 constituencies have MPs who aren't allowed to vote on anything. Surely there is a better way of representing these areas?
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    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,913
    Difficult to imagine how things could have worked out worse for the Tories:-

    Lost majority and being propped up by the sectarian DUP.
    Stuck with a Zombie leader because they daren't risk a leadership election in case WW3 breaks out over Brexit
    Stuck with trying to stumble on because they daren't risk another GE because Corbyn might win.

    If it wasn't for the impending cluster**k of Brexit it would be hard not to laugh, particularly given the hubris being displayed by the PB Tories a month ago.
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    DavidL said:

    PClipp said:

    DavidL said:

    David Cameron's open hand of friendship to the Lib Dems to form the Coalition was genuinely inspirational, the Coalition Agreement is a masterpiece of a document that students of our Constitution will pore over for years and it led to a stable government very much in the national interest in very difficult times.
    This, this is just grubby. There will be a price to be paid and not just by the taxpayer. But given the calamitous election result it may well be a case of a bad deal being better than no deal (to coin a phrase). Ugh.

    DavidL, I have the impression that you are, very slowly, moving back into the Lib Dem column....
    If I was in England I would probably already be there. In Scotland, no. The Union is the most important thing to me and Ruth (like Cameron) is the sort of Tory I am very comfortable with. Socially liberal and economically sensible.

    The current government has an extremely important job to do for the sake of UK plc and as a patriot I really hope they do it well. I have trepidations about it though and no real affection.
    I wish you had lived & in Fife North East
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,926

    Con + Spkr + DUP: 328
    Others exc SF: 315

    Majority 13. Speaker and one Con deputy and two Lab deputies cancel.

    It seems one of the many absurdities of our system that 4 constituencies have MPs who aren't allowed to vote on anything. Surely there is a better way of representing these areas?
    It's not an issue generally as the 4 seats are effectively cancelling. The one difference is the 3 deputies can be voted out (Hoyle could well have been this GE, and Engel was) whereas the speaker can't be.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Hermon should at the very least abstain in votes of confidence, she has the DUP right up her backside in North Down.

    I think you'll find lesbi*n fisting has been specifically excluded from the DUP playbook.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    What are the odds on a general election in 2017 now?

    I wouldn't back that at 10/1, yet you can still lay it at under 4/1 on Betfair. Strange.
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    PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    DavidL said:

    PClipp said:

    DavidL, I have the impression that you are, very slowly, moving back into the Lib Dem column....

    If I was in England I would probably already be there. In Scotland, no. The Union is the most important thing to me and Ruth (like Cameron) is the sort of Tory I am very comfortable with. Socially liberal and economically sensible. (...)
    "Socially liberal and economically sensible" does sound very much like the Lib Dem profile. :) The problem for you is the leadership of the Conservative Party at the national level. Which has now passed, more or less, into the hands of the DUP....

    I am sure there must be lots of Conservative supporters, both in Scotland and the rest of the UK, who are now having another look at the Lib Dems. Lucky we are still here, isn`t it? :)
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    blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    OllyT said:

    Difficult to imagine how things could have worked out worse for the Tories:-

    Lost majority and being propped up by the sectarian DUP.
    Stuck with a Zombie leader because they daren't risk a leadership election in case WW3 breaks out over Brexit
    Stuck with trying to stumble on because they daren't risk another GE because Corbyn might win.

    If it wasn't for the impending cluster**k of Brexit it would be hard not to laugh, particularly given the hubris being displayed by the PB Tories a month ago.

    It could have worked out much worse - a crazy commie fantasist could have seized power in the UK. Fortunately, he's been put back in his box for now.
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,995
    After buying votes in the HoC at 100m quid a pop the Tory claims to economic sanity and the necessity of austerity have gone up in smoke. The magic money tree has been located and its limbs used to fuel a July 12th bonfire.
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    I don't think PB Tories understand how toxic this will be in England.

    The Winter Fuel Allowence and Social care policy were bad but this will annoy 55 million people. Cuts in England to pay for the NHS in Nothern Ireland.....will go down like a cold bucket of sick in the south, in the midlands in the north, infact everywhere in England. I'm sure just like the social care policy many on here will try to tell me how it won't matter.....

    The Ed in Salmond's pocket meme worked for a reason. If Tory backbenchers have any sense they will DEMAND the same for England.

    May is re-toxifying the Tories at an astonishing rate, it would have been better to govern as a minority as the DUP would not allow Corbyn to be PM anyway.

    She can't negeotiate to save her life. She must go and go now.
  • Options
    blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    Dura_Ace said:

    After buying votes in the HoC at 100m quid a pop the Tory claims to economic sanity and the necessity of austerity have gone up in smoke. The magic money tree has been located and its limbs used to fuel a July 12th bonfire.

    Corbyn and McDonnell would bankrupt the country - £100m a week could be cheap to keep them out of power.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,298
    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    isam said:
    Fairly standard PIRA SOPs, at Warrenpoint most notably.

    What is true - that they did this, or did Jezza mention it on stage?
    That they did it I guess
    So did he mention it? Sorry not sure what point the tweet was making.
    Oh well, you'll live!
    Sam why don't you explain to me what point he, and you are making.

    Here we are on a discussion board and I am trying to do my bit. The speech bubble references a PIRA MO. K. There is obviously some connection with Jeremy Corbyn, because it is his speech bubble.

    So what are you trying to prove or show by reposting it? Because surely you must know? Surely....
    Zzzzzzzz
    So you post what you think is a witty, incisive, acute tweet. And have absolutely no idea what it is supposed to mean.

    Is my only reading of the issue.
    Well that's not true, it's you who doesn't get it. But even if I did that, so what?
    Farkn 'ell Sam. Every time we interact I have to remind you that this is a discussion board.

    Someone tweeted Jezza with a speech bubble about the IRA. They then put a "True Story" comment.

    As has been pointed out to me it is apparently ridiculous to think that Jezza could actually have said it.

    So I asked you (to start with) what the point of the tweet was. And answer came there none..
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    I can't give this any more than a cautious welcome until this is clarified:

    27. EU citizens (and their families) who already have five years’ continuous residence in the
    UK by the date of our departure or by the end of the grace period, will be eligible for a grant of
    settled status provided they have proof of five years’ residence at the time of their application
    (we will set out separately the evidence we want to see as proof of residence).
  • Options
    midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    PClipp said:

    DavidL said:

    PClipp said:

    DavidL, I have the impression that you are, very slowly, moving back into the Lib Dem column....

    If I was in England I would probably already be there. In Scotland, no. The Union is the most important thing to me and Ruth (like Cameron) is the sort of Tory I am very comfortable with. Socially liberal and economically sensible. (...)
    "Socially liberal and economically sensible" does sound very much like the Lib Dem profile. :) The problem for you is the leadership of the Conservative Party at the national level. Which has now passed, more or less, into the hands of the DUP....

    I am sure there must be lots of Conservative supporters, both in Scotland and the rest of the UK, who are now having another look at the Lib Dems. Lucky we are still here, isn`t it? :)
    Depends on your leader. Not going to get many converts with Vince in charge. No point in wasting a vote in most places either in all honesty.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited June 2017
    DavidL said:

    Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    Imagine the power the Scottish Conservative and Unionist party would have currently if it did set up as a distinct entity. Power and also a degree of separation from the English Tories. Can't help thinking this deal is very good news for both the SNP and Labour in Scotland. Westminster is taking Team Davidson for granted - and there is nothing Ruth can do.

    I think a separate Scottish conservative and UNIONIST party is increasingly likely on the back of this deal. May not be a bad thing.
    Murdo Fraser must be tamping - loses the leadership election to a person who only has success once she steals his big idea.
    In fairness she has had a lot of success, in Holyrood, in local government and now in Westminster. Not sure Murdo would have achieved this.
    Only after co-opting his idea of debranding from the Conservatives into a seperate Unionist party - at Holyrood 2016 multi-page election leaflets I received mentioned Conservative only in the printing note.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Update on Betfair £1000 bounced cheque: They haven't contacted me as they said they would. I've been on to them again. No progress as yet. I've told them I'll be making a formal complaint to the regulator if the money isn't in my bank account by 1pm tomorrow.

  • Options
    blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    nunu said:

    I don't think PB Tories understand how toxic this will be in England.

    The Winter Fuel Allowence and Social care policy were bad but this will annoy 55 million people. Cuts in England to pay for the NHS in Nothern Ireland.....will go down like a cold bucket of sick in the south, in the midlands in the north, infact everywhere in England. I'm sure just like the social care policy many on here will try to tell me how it won't matter.....

    The Ed in Salmond's pocket meme worked for a reason. If Tory backbenchers have any sense they will DEMAND the same for England.

    May is re-toxifying the Tories at an astonishing rate, it would have been better to govern as a minority as the DUP would not allow Corbyn to be PM anyway.

    She can't negeotiate to save her life. She must go and go now.

    Rubbish - the stupid policies on WFA, the triple lock, and pensions are what cost May her majority. Cancelling them can only be popular!
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,653
    Looks like the points of contention with the EU will be i) ECJ jurisdiction and ii) Equal treatment for UK & EU citizens.....
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,121
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    "EU citizens will be able to bring spouses to the UKon the same basis as British citizens"

    Which is less than the EU wants.....

    That means they can bring their spouses to the UK only if their income is £18.6k or more, yes?

    The spouses of people on low incomes have to stay out.
    Yes.
    It's OK. Poor people don't really feel things in the same way as proper people.
    But it is a bit of a waste. Some of these couples might be perfectly acceptable breeding stock, despite their lack of income. Perhaps an alternative route should be offered if there are eugenic grounds - at least for white couples.
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,995
    blueblue said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    After buying votes in the HoC at 100m quid a pop the Tory claims to economic sanity and the necessity of austerity have gone up in smoke. The magic money tree has been located and its limbs used to fuel a July 12th bonfire.

    Corbyn and McDonnell would bankrupt the country - £100m a week could be cheap to keep them out of power.
    We're getting these shenanigans as well as C+McD not instead of. With Brexit as the turd on the top of the cake.
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    isam said:
    Fairly standard PIRA SOPs, at Warrenpoint most notably.

    What is true - that they did this, or did Jezza mention it on stage?
    That they did it I guess
    So did he mention it? Sorry not sure what point the tweet was making.
    Oh well, you'll live!
    Sam why don't you explain to me what point he, and you are making.

    Here we are on a discussion board and I am trying to do my bit. The speech bubble references a PIRA MO. K. There is obviously some connection with Jeremy Corbyn, because it is his speech bubble.

    So what are you trying to prove or show by reposting it? Because surely you must know? Surely....
    Zzzzzzzz
    So you post what you think is a witty, incisive, acute tweet. And have absolutely no idea what it is supposed to mean.

    Is my only reading of the issue.
    Well that's not true, it's you who doesn't get it. But even if I did that, so what?
    Farkn 'ell Sam. Every time we interact I have to remind you that this is a discussion board.

    Someone tweeted Jezza with a speech bubble about the IRA. They then put a "True Story" comment.

    As has been pointed out to me it is apparently ridiculous to think that Jezza could actually have said it.

    So I asked you (to start with) what the point of the tweet was. And answer came there none..
    He presumably thinks you must be trolling, since nobody can be that dumb.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Mr. Nabavi, that sounds odd. Hope it gets sorted for you.
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    ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    TOPPING said:

    Can my fellow Tories explain why an Ed Miliband government sending money to the SNP was bad but sending money to the DUP is good?

    The SNP are not rabid sectarian homophobes
    who were voted in by members of the public.

    Between you and @Richard_Nabavi (and @Paristonda) there won't be anyone left allowed to vote.
    I said that you could just as easily blame all Leave voters for the current situation as you can all Labour voters, if you agreed with Richard's logic - and I also said that I don't, as I dont think you can blame the public for these kinds of decisions. I've never argued against enacting the result of the referendum or called Leavers stupid etc, I blame the politicians responsible, not the voters.

    The DUP is legitimate as a choice for Tory government, just like the SNP would have been if things had gone slightly the other way with Labour. Doesn't change the fact that they are a true nasty party and will be toxic in the eyes of many voters just as surely as SF (or indeed the SNP) would have been toxic for Labour to climb into bed with.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,926

    Update on Betfair £1000 bounced cheque: They haven't contacted me as they said they would. I've been on to them again. No progress as yet. I've told them I'll be making a formal complaint to the regulator if the money isn't in my bank account by 1pm tomorrow.

    Utterly shocking Richard.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,298

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    isam said:
    Fairly standard PIRA SOPs, at Warrenpoint most notably.

    What is true - that they did this, or did Jezza mention it on stage?
    That they did it I guess
    So did he mention it? Sorry not sure what point the tweet was making.
    Oh well, you'll live!
    Sam why don't you explain to me what point he, and you are making.

    Here we are on a discussion board and I am trying to do my bit. The speech bubble references a PIRA MO. K. There is obviously some connection with Jeremy Corbyn, because it is his speech bubble.

    So what are you trying to prove or show by reposting it? Because surely you must know? Surely....
    Zzzzzzzz
    So you post what you think is a witty, incisive, acute tweet. And have absolutely no idea what it is supposed to mean.

    Is my only reading of the issue.
    Well that's not true, it's you who doesn't get it. But even if I did that, so what?
    Farkn 'ell Sam. Every time we interact I have to remind you that this is a discussion board.

    Someone tweeted Jezza with a speech bubble about the IRA. They then put a "True Story" comment.

    As has been pointed out to me it is apparently ridiculous to think that Jezza could actually have said it.

    So I asked you (to start with) what the point of the tweet was. And answer came there none..
    He presumably thinks you must be trolling, since nobody can be that dumb.
    me or Jezza :wink:
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,298

    TOPPING said:

    Can my fellow Tories explain why an Ed Miliband government sending money to the SNP was bad but sending money to the DUP is good?

    The SNP are not rabid sectarian homophobes
    who were voted in by members of the public.

    Between you and @Richard_Nabavi (and @Paristonda) there won't be anyone left allowed to vote.
    I said that you could just as easily blame all Leave voters for the current situation as you can all Labour voters, if you agreed with Richard's logic - and I also said that I don't, as I dont think you can blame the public for these kinds of decisions. I've never argued against enacting the result of the referendum or called Leavers stupid etc, I blame the politicians responsible, not the voters.

    The DUP is legitimate as a choice for Tory government, just like the SNP would have been if things had gone slightly the other way with Labour. Doesn't change the fact that they are a true nasty party and will be toxic in the eyes of many voters just as surely as SF (or indeed the SNP) would have been toxic for Labour to climb into bed with.
    Don't disagree at all.
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    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341
    Pulpstar said:

    Con + Spkr + DUP: 328
    Others exc SF: 315

    Majority 13. Speaker and one Con deputy and two Lab deputies cancel.

    It seems one of the many absurdities of our system that 4 constituencies have MPs who aren't allowed to vote on anything. Surely there is a better way of representing these areas?
    It's not an issue generally as the 4 seats are effectively cancelling. The one difference is the 3 deputies can be voted out (Hoyle could well have been this GE, and Engel was) whereas the speaker can't be.
    I understand that it makes no difference at the parliamentary vote tally level. But if someone living in the constituency wants to raise a specific issue with their MP what are they supposed to do?

    Surely it would make more sense for the Speaker & deputies to be an appointed ex-MP
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,653
    Joanna Cherry MP SNP "Get rid of the medical insurance requirement!"
    Theresa May MP, PM: Its an EU requirement, when we leave we can get rid of it
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Pulpstar said:

    Update on Betfair £1000 bounced cheque: They haven't contacted me as they said they would. I've been on to them again. No progress as yet. I've told them I'll be making a formal complaint to the regulator if the money isn't in my bank account by 1pm tomorrow.

    Utterly shocking Richard.
    Yeah, I don't mind organisations making mistakes from time to time (assuming it is a mistake, rather than something worse), but what really gets my goat is when they then don't consider it a priority to rectify the mistake.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,329
    Very, very interesting.

    It seems a very reasonable offer to me. The key point is this: "Furthermore, we are also ready to make commitments in the Withdrawal Agreement which will have the status of international law. The Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) will not have jurisdiction in the UK."

    Let's see how that lands. The UK will accept independent international arbitration, but not jurisdiction of the ECJ.
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    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    justin124 said:

    The majority is only 15 if Lady Hermon supports the Government . Were she to vote against the majority falls to 13.

    She'll probably vote with Labour on some issues, but not on anything that might bring down the government.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,329

    Pulpstar said:

    Update on Betfair £1000 bounced cheque: They haven't contacted me as they said they would. I've been on to them again. No progress as yet. I've told them I'll be making a formal complaint to the regulator if the money isn't in my bank account by 1pm tomorrow.

    Utterly shocking Richard.
    Yeah, I don't mind organisations making mistakes from time to time (assuming it is a mistake, rather than something worse), but what really gets my goat is when they then don't consider it a priority to rectify the mistake.
    That's terrible, Richard.
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    blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    Andrew said:

    justin124 said:

    The majority is only 15 if Lady Hermon supports the Government . Were she to vote against the majority falls to 13.

    She'll probably vote with Labour on some issues, but not on anything that might bring down the government.
    Lady Sylvia is pretty damned unlikely to support Corbyn on a matter of confidence, thank goodness:

    http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2017/i-could-never-back-labour-if-corbyn-was-its-leader-says-hermon-35783622.html
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    isamisam Posts: 40,927
    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    isam said:
    Fairly standard PIRA SOPs, at Warrenpoint most notably.

    What is true - that they did this, or did Jezza mention it on stage?
    That they did it I guess
    So did he mention it? Sorry not sure what point the tweet was making.
    Oh well, you'll live!
    Sam why don't you explain to me what point he, and you are making.

    Here we are on a discussion board and I am trying to do my bit. The speech bubble references a PIRA MO. K. There is obviously some connection with Jeremy Corbyn, because it is his speech bubble.

    So what are you trying to prove or show by reposting it? Because surely you must know? Surely....
    Zzzzzzzz
    So you post what you think is a witty, incisive, acute tweet. And have absolutely no idea what it is supposed to mean.

    Is my only reading of the issue.
    Well that's not true, it's you who doesn't get it. But even if I did that, so what?
    Farkn 'ell Sam. Every time we interact I have to remind you that this is a discussion board.

    Someone tweeted Jezza with a speech bubble about the IRA. They then put a "True Story" comment.

    As has been pointed out to me it is apparently ridiculous to think that Jezza could actually have said it.

    So I asked you (to start with) what the point of the tweet was. And answer came there none..
    Whatever
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,715

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt

    isam said:
    Fairly standard PIRA SOPs, at Warrenpoint most notably.

    What is true - that they did this, or did Jezza mention it on stage?
    That they did it I guess
    So did he mention it? Sorry not sure what point the tweet was making.
    Oh well, you'll live!
    Sam why don't you explain to me what point he, and you are making.

    Here we are on a discussion board and I am trying to do my bit. The speech bubble references a PIRA MO. K. There is obviously some connection with Jeremy Corbyn, because it is his speech bubble.

    So what are you trying to prove or show by reposting it? Because surely you must know? Surely....
    Zzzzzzzz
    So you post what you think is a witty, incisive, acute tweet. And have absolutely no idea what it is supposed to mean.

    Is my only reading of the issue.
    Well that's not true, it's you who doesn't get it. But even if I did that, so what?
    Farkn 'ell Sam. Every time we interact I have to remind you that this is a discussion board.

    Someone tweeted Jezza with a speech bubble about the IRA. They then put a "True Story" comment.

    As has been pointed out to me it is apparently ridiculous to think that Jezza could actually have said it.

    So I asked you (to start with) what the point of the tweet was. And answer came there none..
    He presumably thinks you must be trolling, since nobody can be that dumb.
    On the other hand we shouldn't tolerate Fake News on this forum.
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,715
    blueblue said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    After buying votes in the HoC at 100m quid a pop the Tory claims to economic sanity and the necessity of austerity have gone up in smoke. The magic money tree has been located and its limbs used to fuel a July 12th bonfire.

    Corbyn and McDonnell would bankrupt the country - £100m a week could be cheap to keep them out of power.
    or
    "Honestly, or lot are bad, but the other lot are REALLY bad!"
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,931

    Very, very interesting.

    It seems a very reasonable offer to me. The key point is this: "Furthermore, we are also ready to make commitments in the Withdrawal Agreement which will have the status of international law. The Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) will not have jurisdiction in the UK."

    Let's see how that lands. The UK will accept independent international arbitration, but not jurisdiction of the ECJ.

    It's less generous than the EU27 proposal with regards to the rights of UK citizens living in the EU, but there is not an insurmountable gap between the two positions. A deal will be done.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,274

    Pulpstar said:

    Con + Spkr + DUP: 328
    Others exc SF: 315

    Majority 13. Speaker and one Con deputy and two Lab deputies cancel.

    It seems one of the many absurdities of our system that 4 constituencies have MPs who aren't allowed to vote on anything. Surely there is a better way of representing these areas?
    It's not an issue generally as the 4 seats are effectively cancelling. The one difference is the 3 deputies can be voted out (Hoyle could well have been this GE, and Engel was) whereas the speaker can't be.
    I understand that it makes no difference at the parliamentary vote tally level. But if someone living in the constituency wants to raise a specific issue with their MP what are they supposed to do?

    Surely it would make more sense for the Speaker & deputies to be an appointed ex-MP
    For casework the Speakers get a very good service, since departments are always keen to keep on their good sides. The problem arises if a constituent wants their MP to take a position on a political vote in the House.
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    kurtjesterkurtjester Posts: 121
    HMS Queen Elizabeth has cleared the lock gate on it's sea trials. Amazing seamanship.

    https://twitter.com/HMSQnlz?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419

    Pulpstar said:

    Con + Spkr + DUP: 328
    Others exc SF: 315

    Majority 13. Speaker and one Con deputy and two Lab deputies cancel.

    It seems one of the many absurdities of our system that 4 constituencies have MPs who aren't allowed to vote on anything. Surely there is a better way of representing these areas?
    It's not an issue generally as the 4 seats are effectively cancelling. The one difference is the 3 deputies can be voted out (Hoyle could well have been this GE, and Engel was) whereas the speaker can't be.
    I understand that it makes no difference at the parliamentary vote tally level. But if someone living in the constituency wants to raise a specific issue with their MP what are they supposed to do?

    Surely it would make more sense for the Speaker & deputies to be an appointed ex-MP
    It would make sense for the Speaker to be an ex-MP and for a by-election to take place there, and for the Dep Speakers to continue to operate as normal MPs when not in the chair. If they want to be controversial, they're probably not Speaker (or Dep Speaker) material anyway.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,926
    Looks like an interim win for Trump with the SCOTUS ruling on travel.
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    Pulpstar said:

    Con + Spkr + DUP: 328
    Others exc SF: 315

    Majority 13. Speaker and one Con deputy and two Lab deputies cancel.

    It seems one of the many absurdities of our system that 4 constituencies have MPs who aren't allowed to vote on anything. Surely there is a better way of representing these areas?
    It's not an issue generally as the 4 seats are effectively cancelling. The one difference is the 3 deputies can be voted out (Hoyle could well have been this GE, and Engel was) whereas the speaker can't be.
    I understand that it makes no difference at the parliamentary vote tally level. But if someone living in the constituency wants to raise a specific issue with their MP what are they supposed to do?

    Surely it would make more sense for the Speaker & deputies to be an appointed ex-MP
    It would make sense for the Speaker to be an ex-MP and for a by-election to take place there, and for the Dep Speakers to continue to operate as normal MPs when not in the chair. If they want to be controversial, they're probably not Speaker (or Dep Speaker) material anyway.
    Never been a problem in the past...!
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    I understand that it makes no difference at the parliamentary vote tally level. But if someone living in the constituency wants to raise a specific issue with their MP what are they supposed to do?

    If memory serves me correctly, isn't the convention that in cases like that the constituent is referred to an MP in a neighbouring constituency?
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    jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261
    1 billion to NI or billions spent on renationalisation under McDonnell? A billion well spent if you ask me.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,653

    Very, very interesting.

    It seems a very reasonable offer to me. The key point is this: "Furthermore, we are also ready to make commitments in the Withdrawal Agreement which will have the status of international law. The Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) will not have jurisdiction in the UK."

    Let's see how that lands. The UK will accept independent international arbitration, but not jurisdiction of the ECJ.

    It's less generous than the EU27 proposal with regards to the rights of UK citizens living in the EU, but there is not an insurmountable gap between the two positions. A deal will be done.
    Did the EU propose the British Supreme Court would adjudicate on British Citizen's rights in the EU, as it proposed ECJ adjudication of EU citizens in Britain?
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,280

    DavidL said:

    PClipp said:

    DavidL said:

    David Cameron's open hand of friendship to the Lib Dems to form the Coalition was genuinely inspirational, the Coalition Agreement is a masterpiece of a document that students of our Constitution will pore over for years and it led to a stable government very much in the national interest in very difficult times.
    This, this is just grubby. There will be a price to be paid and not just by the taxpayer. But given the calamitous election result it may well be a case of a bad deal being better than no deal (to coin a phrase). Ugh.

    DavidL, I have the impression that you are, very slowly, moving back into the Lib Dem column....
    If I was in England I would probably already be there. In Scotland, no. The Union is the most important thing to me and Ruth (like Cameron) is the sort of Tory I am very comfortable with. Socially liberal and economically sensible.

    The current government has an extremely important job to do for the sake of UK plc and as a patriot I really hope they do it well. I have trepidations about it though and no real affection.
    I wish you had lived & in Fife North East
    The thought had occurred to me. Between Mrs L, myself and Ms L (who voted Lib Dem in Edinburgh) we could have swung it!
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,653
    DUP was rewarded by government for backing 42 days, claims first minister
    Peter Robinson says his party's decision to support counter-terrorism bill helped deliver major economic investment for Northern Ireland


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2008/dec/31/42-days
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    ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    The deal is regularly being described in all media as the DUP reaching a deal to 'prop up' the Tories. That in itself may seem neutral enough language, but it implies the DUP are the ones with the power. It feeds into an idea of the tories as weak, and the DUP tail wagging the Tory dog.

    The LDs were never described as reaching a deal to 'prop up' the Tories - and in that situation the public quickly came to the conclusion that the LDs were powerless.

    Perception is reality after all - it will be very easy for Labour to sell this deal as the Tories being taken for a ride, the DUP calling the shots, 'our' hardworking taxpayer money being sent over to a place labelled as Here Be Dragons on most southern English maps.

    May trumped her biggest mistake so far, calling the election, when she went out in front of Downing Street on the 9th of June and said she would be working with the DUP, basically forcing her to do so, rather than trying to go it alone as a minority.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    "EU citizens will be able to bring spouses to the UKon the same basis as British citizens"

    Which is less than the EU wants.....

    That means they can bring their spouses to the UK only if their income is £18.6k or more, yes?

    The spouses of people on low incomes have to stay out.
    Yes.
    It's OK. Poor people don't really feel things in the same way as proper people.
    But it is a bit of a waste. Some of these couples might be perfectly acceptable breeding stock, despite their lack of income. Perhaps an alternative route should be offered if there are eugenic grounds - at least for white couples.
    The more you talk to yourself the dafter it gets. :)
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    So, with the DUP on board, Lady Sylvia not amongst Corbyn's greatest fans, the SNP not likely to be very keen on an early election, and the LibDems not ready for one, it doesn't look as though the government is at much risk for the moment. I think our default assumption now should be no election until at least 2019.
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    nunu said:

    I don't think PB Tories understand how toxic this will be in England.

    The Winter Fuel Allowence and Social care policy were bad but this will annoy 55 million people. Cuts in England to pay for the NHS in Nothern Ireland.....will go down like a cold bucket of sick in the south, in the midlands in the north, infact everywhere in England. I'm sure just like the social care policy many on here will try to tell me how it won't matter.....

    The Ed in Salmond's pocket meme worked for a reason. If Tory backbenchers have any sense they will DEMAND the same for England.

    May is re-toxifying the Tories at an astonishing rate, it would have been better to govern as a minority as the DUP would not allow Corbyn to be PM anyway.

    She can't negeotiate to save her life. She must go and go now.

    I think many PB Tories are fully aware May has been continually screwing up since April.
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    ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    The question now is what does SF do? NI as a whole looks set to benefit, and the immediate SF response seemed to recognise that. But can SF really allow the DUP to take credit for anything good in NI? They can't allow the DUP to take the role of the pre-2017 SNP (we will stand up for all NI/Scot interests, hence the 2015 tsunami)
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    I think many PB Tories are fully aware May has been continually screwing up since April.

    Since the day she sacked Osborne...
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    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341

    I understand that it makes no difference at the parliamentary vote tally level. But if someone living in the constituency wants to raise a specific issue with their MP what are they supposed to do?

    If memory serves me correctly, isn't the convention that in cases like that the constituent is referred to an MP in a neighbouring constituency?
    If that's the case then the constituents in the neighbouring constituency also get a worse service as the workload on their MP is presumably increased quite significantly. And what if there are no nearby constituencies of the same party (e.g. suppose the Speaker was the Labour member for Exeter)?

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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    So, with the DUP on board, Lady Sylvia not amongst Corbyn's greatest fans, the SNP not likely to be very keen on an early election, and the LibDems not ready for one, it doesn't look as though the government is at much risk for the moment. I think our default assumption now should be no election until at least 2019.

    The political reality in Scotland,however, is that the SNP would have to support any attempt to bring down this minority Government.Likewise the LibDems would steer clear of anything that would make it easy for Labour to label them ' Tories' little helpers' all over again. Lady Hermon has said she could not support Corbyn - but that does not imply support for May either.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,059

    So, with the DUP on board, Lady Sylvia not amongst Corbyn's greatest fans, the SNP not likely to be very keen on an early election, and the LibDems not ready for one, it doesn't look as though the government is at much risk for the moment. I think our default assumption now should be no election until at least 2019.

    I don't think we can say anything with any confidence at this point. The DUP is presumably on board with the government's Brexit negotiating position over Northern Ireland, but how long will that last once the talks get underway?
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    FWIW, this is the timwtable for the LD leadership election:

    Following the agreement of the Federal Board and the party’s returning officer, I am pleased to confirm the timetable for the election of our new party leader.

    Opening of nominations June 25th 2017
    Closing of nominations July 20th 2017
    Dispatch of ballot papers Aug 16th 2017
    Deadline for ballot papers to be returned Sep 11th 2017
    Count and declaration of the winner Sep 13th 2017

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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Checks on cladding now extending to public buildings such as hospitals and schools.
    Potentially this will be more damaging to public confidence in all things political than expenses. Actually it almost certainly will. It's the perfect storm story for anti capitalism.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,926
    Lib Dem leadership timetable:

    Opening of nominations June 25th 2017
    Closing of nominations July 20th 2017
    Dispatch of ballot papers Aug 16th 2017
    Deadline for ballot papers to be returned Sep 11th 2017
    Count and declaration of the winner Sep 13th 2017
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    justin124 said:

    The political reality in Scotland,however, is that the SNP would have to support any attempt to bring down this minority Government.Likewise the LibDems would steer clear of anything that would make it easy for Labour to label them ' Tories' little helpers' all over again. Lady Hermon has said she could not support Corbyn - but that does not imply support for May either.

    I think you greatly underestimate the talents of the SNP when it comes to having their cake and arguing that it's the Tories fault they've eaten it. The LibDems might find themselves unaccountably detained at a conference on electoral reform. Lady Hermon is a wildcard, certainly - but the point is, for the government to lose a confidence vote, the opposition parties have to get their acts together against the government simultaneously. That won't happen unless they each think it's in their interests to make it happen.
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    NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    justin124 said:

    So, with the DUP on board, Lady Sylvia not amongst Corbyn's greatest fans, the SNP not likely to be very keen on an early election, and the LibDems not ready for one, it doesn't look as though the government is at much risk for the moment. I think our default assumption now should be no election until at least 2019.

    The political reality in Scotland,however, is that the SNP would have to support any attempt to bring down this minority Government.Likewise the LibDems would steer clear of anything that would make it easy for Labour to label them ' Tories' little helpers' all over again. Lady Hermon has said she could not support Corbyn - but that does not imply support for May either.
    I think JC & McDonell will provide sufficient excuses for the LDs and possibly SNP to at least abstain if a crucial vote looked dodgy. Longer term they may want an election and the DUP deal may falter and/or the majority may shrink. Therfore I believe that in the shortish term (one to two years) there is a double lock to keep the government in power as log as the Tories do not get suicidal.
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Andrew said:

    justin124 said:

    The majority is only 15 if Lady Hermon supports the Government . Were she to vote against the majority falls to 13.

    She'll probably vote with Labour on some issues, but not on anything that might bring down the government.
    Not necessarily. She might be inclined to vote against this Government , and possibly to abstain were a Corbyn Government seeking the support of the House. She is not obliged to support either!
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,059

    I think JC & McDonell will provide sufficient excuses for the LDs and possibly SNP to at least abstain if a crucial vote looked dodgy. Longer term they may want an election and the DUP deal may falter and/or the majority may shrink. Therfore I believe that in the shortish term (one to two years) there is a double lock to keep the government in power as log as the Tories do not get suicidal.

    How can you talk about the next one or two years without reference to the Brexit negotiations? How can May keep her own party in line for any conceivable course of events over that period?
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    CornishJohnCornishJohn Posts: 304
    This DUP agreement looks much better than I thought it might. She has got full backing for not only Queen's Speeches and Finance bills, but also all Brexit-related legislation. The cost is only 0.03% of public spending, and most of it will be spent on investment projects that will leave a tangible asset when it's done. That has to be well worth keeping Jeremy Corbyn out of office for an extra two years.

    The Conservatives now need to focus on making sure Corbyn gets the scrutiny the media refused to give him in the last couple of years, while making sure we reach out with tangible policies to the young and the working class. I'm more confident than I've been since the election.
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    justin124 said:

    Andrew said:

    justin124 said:

    The majority is only 15 if Lady Hermon supports the Government . Were she to vote against the majority falls to 13.

    She'll probably vote with Labour on some issues, but not on anything that might bring down the government.
    Not necessarily. She might be inclined to vote against this Government , and possibly to abstain were a Corbyn Government seeking the support of the House. She is not obliged to support either!
    No. She's been very open about not wanting Corbyn as PM. She's very much Labour inclined on many things but not Corbyn inclined.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    justin124 said:

    The political reality in Scotland,however, is that the SNP would have to support any attempt to bring down this minority Government.Likewise the LibDems would steer clear of anything that would make it easy for Labour to label them ' Tories' little helpers' all over again. Lady Hermon has said she could not support Corbyn - but that does not imply support for May either.

    I think you greatly underestimate the talents of the SNP when it comes to having their cake and arguing that it's the Tories fault they've eaten it. The LibDems might find themselves unaccountably detained at a conference on electoral reform. Lady Hermon is a wildcard, certainly - but the point is, for the government to lose a confidence vote, the opposition parties have to get their acts together against the government simultaneously. That won't happen unless they each think it's in their interests to make it happen.
    I don't think that the SNP, LDs or DUP want an election this year, but in 12 months things could be very different, particularly if there are some juicy by elections..
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    Very, very interesting.

    It seems a very reasonable offer to me. The key point is this: "Furthermore, we are also ready to make commitments in the Withdrawal Agreement which will have the status of international law. The Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) will not have jurisdiction in the UK."

    Let's see how that lands. The UK will accept independent international arbitration, but not jurisdiction of the ECJ.
    Why are people saying this falls short of what the E.U are offering exactly?
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,931

    Very, very interesting.

    It seems a very reasonable offer to me. The key point is this: "Furthermore, we are also ready to make commitments in the Withdrawal Agreement which will have the status of international law. The Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) will not have jurisdiction in the UK."

    Let's see how that lands. The UK will accept independent international arbitration, but not jurisdiction of the ECJ.

    It's less generous than the EU27 proposal with regards to the rights of UK citizens living in the EU, but there is not an insurmountable gap between the two positions. A deal will be done.
    Did the EU propose the British Supreme Court would adjudicate on British Citizen's rights in the EU, as it proposed ECJ adjudication of EU citizens in Britain?

    No - but it does offer many more rights to UK citizens living in the EU27 than the UK proposals would deliver. The negotiation will now begin and EU27 citizens living in the UK will end up with a better deal than the one currently being offered, while UK citizens living in the EU27 can expect to get a worse one.




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    justin124 said:

    Andrew said:

    justin124 said:

    The majority is only 15 if Lady Hermon supports the Government . Were she to vote against the majority falls to 13.

    She'll probably vote with Labour on some issues, but not on anything that might bring down the government.
    Not necessarily. She might be inclined to vote against this Government , and possibly to abstain were a Corbyn Government seeking the support of the House. She is not obliged to support either!
    No. She's been very open about not wanting Corbyn as PM. She's very much Labour inclined on many things but not Corbyn inclined.
    Not being funny, but she's MP for North Down. She's not going to allow the last thing she does in politics to be help the ushering in of an IRA apologist PM.
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