While OGH likes harping on about the Tories leadership shortcomings I am not particularly impressed by lily livered Lib Dems failing to take on the not very Liberal Cable. Someone like Davey a former cabinet minister aged 51 should jump at the chance. Perhaps he see no future in it and talk of an impending new centrist party perhaps is a bit more than just talk.
This is his own explanation:
"Our joy this weekend was seeing our two children play together. And when you understand that John (aged 9) is severely disabled, you will appreciate that seeing our 3 year old daughter make him laugh is quite special.
And if it helps explain my decision not to run just a little more, please remember that my father died when I was 4 and my mother when I was 15. Being there for my children over the next few crucial years and to see those special moments is my personal priority.
So my decision not to stand now to be Leader of our party is a difficult one, but it is rooted in my family."
Bless him.
Best wishes to him and his family. His decision is totally understandable.
Indeed. He also knows that he won't win, since Vince's pitch, hopefully honestly, is essentially for us to let him sit in the chair for a couple of years before he hands over to someone with more vim and vigour whose is female and first name begins with J.
My favourite Tory MP. I was very glad to see that she held on in Broxtowe during GE night.
I agree 100%. She's great. She's my favourite MP of any party - and I say this as a Lib Dem member. For me, the brief interview with her on the BBC results show was the most memorable moment of election night.
Actually, I may just well agree with you on that one thinking about it now - I can't recall agreeing with another MP more in the last several years. She was brilliant in that interview on election night. She was also great in an interview with Owen Jones (yes, I know, not everyone's favourite person, but still).
While OGH likes harping on about the Tories leadership shortcomings I am not particularly impressed by lily livered Lib Dems failing to take on the not very Liberal Cable. Someone like Davey a former cabinet minister aged 51 should jump at the chance. Perhaps he see no future in it and talk of an impending new centrist party perhaps is a bit more than just talk.
This is his own explanation:
"Our joy this weekend was seeing our two children play together. And when you understand that John (aged 9) is severely disabled, you will appreciate that seeing our 3 year old daughter make him laugh is quite special.
And if it helps explain my decision not to run just a little more, please remember that my father died when I was 4 and my mother when I was 15. Being there for my children over the next few crucial years and to see those special moments is my personal priority.
So my decision not to stand now to be Leader of our party is a difficult one, but it is rooted in my family."
I wasn't aware of those reasons but I still have to ask why he indicated he was interested only a couple of weeks ago. It used to be the case you entered politics to reach a pinnacle, and leading a party of 12 is not quite the same as leading the country. Family sacrifices used to go with the territory.
While OGH likes harping on about the Tories leadership shortcomings I am not particularly impressed by lily livered Lib Dems failing to take on the not very Liberal Cable. Someone like Davey a former cabinet minister aged 51 should jump at the chance. Perhaps he see no future in it and talk of an impending new centrist party perhaps is a bit more than just talk.
This is his own explanation:
"Our joy this weekend was seeing our two children play together. And when you understand that John (aged 9) is severely disabled, you will appreciate that seeing our 3 year old daughter make him laugh is quite special.
And if it helps explain my decision not to run just a little more, please remember that my father died when I was 4 and my mother when I was 15. Being there for my children over the next few crucial years and to see those special moments is my personal priority.
So my decision not to stand now to be Leader of our party is a difficult one, but it is rooted in my family."
I wasn't aware of those reasons but I still have to ask why he indicated he was interested only a couple of weeks ago. It used to be the case you entered politics to reach a pinnacle, and leading a party of 12 is not quite the same as leading the country. Family sacrifices used to go with the territory.
In the turmoil of difficult Brexit negotiations if Momentum keep a grip of the Labour Party then could we see a new centrist Party launched? Majority of Labour MPs, at least a third of the Tories, all the Lib Dems? They could force an election and stand promising lots of modernising reforms plus a second referendum, possibly with one option being staying in. If economic problems have surfaced and Corbyn/McDonell have peaked we could get a Macron like situation.
While OGH likes harping on about the Tories leadership shortcomings I am not particularly impressed by lily livered Lib Dems failing to take on the not very Liberal Cable. Someone like Davey a former cabinet minister aged 51 should jump at the chance. Perhaps he see no future in it and talk of an impending new centrist party perhaps is a bit more than just talk.
This is his own explanation:
"Our joy this weekend was seeing our two children play together. And when you understand that John (aged 9) is severely disabled, you will appreciate that seeing our 3 year old daughter make him laugh is quite special.
And if it helps explain my decision not to run just a little more, please remember that my father died when I was 4 and my mother when I was 15. Being there for my children over the next few crucial years and to see those special moments is my personal priority.
So my decision not to stand now to be Leader of our party is a difficult one, but it is rooted in my family."
I wasn't aware of those reasons but I still have to ask why he indicated he was interested only a couple of weeks ago. It used to be the case you entered politics to reach a pinnacle, and leading a party of 12 is not quite the same as leading the country. Family sacrifices used to go with the territory.
See my post downthread
Indeed quite so but who's to say Jo Swinson is the saviour of her party any more then T May is. She might be but needs to be tested in a leadership election, much as Vince should be.
She is great. If I were in Broxtowe, I could see myself voting for her.. (Sorry Nick!)
+1.
My favourite Tory MP. I was very glad to see that she held on in Broxtowe during GE night.
Sarah Wollaston pips her for me, hard to think of another. Nicky Morgan possibly.
Heidi Allen?
All the best Tories are really LibDems who put career before principle.
I struggle to think of a male Tory that I like now that Edward Garnier has retired, except George the boy wonder of course - the Radiohead of politicians.
While OGH likes harping on about the Tories leadership shortcomings I am not particularly impressed by lily livered Lib Dems failing to take on the not very Liberal Cable. Someone like Davey a former cabinet minister aged 51 should jump at the chance. Perhaps he see no future in it and talk of an impending new centrist party perhaps is a bit more than just talk.
This is his own explanation:
"Our joy this weekend was seeing our two children play together. And when you understand that John (aged 9) is severely disabled, you will appreciate that seeing our 3 year old daughter make him laugh is quite special.
And if it helps explain my decision not to run just a little more, please remember that my father died when I was 4 and my mother when I was 15. Being there for my children over the next few crucial years and to see those special moments is my personal priority.
So my decision not to stand now to be Leader of our party is a difficult one, but it is rooted in my family."
I wasn't aware of those reasons but I still have to ask why he indicated he was interested only a couple of weeks ago. It used to be the case you entered politics to reach a pinnacle, and leading a party of 12 is not quite the same as leading the country. Family sacrifices used to go with the territory.
See my post downthread
Indeed quite so but who's to say Jo Swinson is the saviour of her party any more then T May is. She might be but need to be tested in a leadership election, much as Vince should be.
Fair comment. In a party of twelve, we are never going to be spoilt for choice. There is some grassroots support building for Layla Moran, and two years under Vince will at least allow her to find her feet in parliament and see if she can make an impression.
House of Lords swinging into action tomorrow - three motions as amendments to Queens Speech:
1) Motion to suspend Article 50 2) Motion "recognising no deal is worst possible deal" (Lab front bench) 3) Motion to regret not staying in single market and customs union
Incidentally May has still not announced any list of new Peers - think it was reported she was against the idea but seems crazy not to take opportunity to bolster Con numbers.
Actually, I may just well agree with you on that one thinking about it now - I can't recall agreeing with another MP more in the last several years. She was brilliant in that interview on election night. She was also great in an interview with Owen Jones (yes, I know, not everyone's favourite person, but still).
Oh yes, I stumbled upon this video a few days after the election. It's brilliant. One of the most refreshing things about Anna Soubry (and even those who dislike her have to concede this point) is that she doesn't duck or dodge questions or fall back on stock phrases. She always gives direct answers and speaks her mind. The Prime Minister could learn a lot from her approach.
Though I'll admit that the fact that I (a Lib Dem member) and my brother (a Labour voter) both like her probably doesn't say much for her career propects in her chosen party.
One of my Labour activist friends has another theory.
Those voters stuck with Labour to stop Labour getting wiped out.
Had the polls been more accurate, Labour might have been screwed.
To what does he attribute the continued increase in Labour support in polls since the eleciton, then?
I have never met in 50 years of canvassing a voter who said "I dislike party X but I'm going to vote for them as I don't want them wiped out". Not Labour, not Tories. It's the sort of political sophistry that doesn't penetrate far beyond sites like PB.
And what a sad comment on the state of the Labour Party that they need to be encouraged to step up to their responsibilities by a rogue Tory backbencher.
She should defect to Labour. They deserve her as she is perhaps the worst MP in Parliament.
What nonsense! The worst MPs are those lazy ones sitting in impregnable safe FPTnP seats in both of the main parties, who do nothing for either their constituents or their country.
Nope the worst are those who use their position to subvert democracy.
I'm worried about our government and Brexit. Specifically, I'm concerned that the UK is blithely assuming that the EU will roll over and give us the transition deal we want.
About nine months ago, when I was a fund manager, I had the management of a Taiwanese company in my office. Usually, when fund manager meets corporate, it is the fund manager that asks all the questions, and the corporate that answers them. This time was different: they were Brexit obsessed. Why did Britain leave the EU? Was it safe to invest in the UK? Would goods be able to travel tariff free between the UK and the EU? And, what would Britain's tariff schedule look like post-Brexit?
The first three questions I handled easily. But the fourth, I struggled with. HMG had - at the time - made no indication of whether it would have a British tariff schedule, or whether it would replicate the EU schedule. I looked online just now, to see what the planned schedule would be. There has been radio silence from the government. This seems to me to be utter madness. At the very least, they should say "irrespective of any deal with the EU, we will be implementing the EU tariff schedule at departure". (Better would be to have our own, lower, tariffs, but at least have the EU ones would enable everyone to plan.)
This is worrying for three reasons:
1. It suggests that the government is not as prepared for Brexit as they should be. The tariff schedule (which will ultimately require the unanimous acceptance of all 180 off WTO members) should be the simplest part of the process.
2. Uncertainty kills investment. If you are considering building a plant in the UK, and you don't know what tariffs will be imposed on your components, well... you might choose somewhere else. At the very least, you'll pause.
3. The longer this uncertainty goes on, the better the EU's hand relative to ours. Are we utterly dependent on a transitional deal, where we retain the customs union for a period? If so, the EU will extract a high price, irrespective of the legal rights and wrongs.
I hope I am unduly pessimistic. But publishing tariff schedules should be the first and simplest thing for the new Department for International Trade. It should be followed by a series of announcements of "Heads of Terms" with major non-EU trading partners to replicate existing arrangements. So for, however, despite it being 12 months since the Brexit vote, we have heard nothing. My pessimism feels warranted right now.
My favourite Tory MP. I was very glad to see that she held on in Broxtowe during GE night.
I agree 100%. She's great. She's my favourite MP of any party - and I say this as a Lib Dem member. For me, the brief interview with her on the BBC results show was the most memorable moment of election night.
Actually, I may just well agree with you on that one thinking about it now - I can't recall agreeing with another MP more in the last several years. She was brilliant in that interview on election night. She was also great in an interview with Owen Jones (yes, I know, not everyone's favourite person, but still).
In the turmoil of difficult Brexit negotiations if Momentum keep a grip of the Labour Party then could we see a new centrist Party launched? Majority of Labour MPs, at least a third of the Tories, all the Lib Dems? They could force an election and stand promising lots of modernising reforms plus a second referendum, possibly with one option being staying in. If economic problems have surfaced and Corbyn/McDonell have peaked we could get a Macron like situation.
I've been thinking about this for the past couple of days. I think the problem is labour are too tribal and their moderate MP's are like political zombies, think tankers who were given safe seats in what are now heavy leave voting constituencies.
The impetus for this kind of movement needs to almost come from somewhere entirely outside the existing political establishment.
And what exactly is their position going to be on leaving the EU? Soft Brexit? Some sort of transitional situation? There isn't the appetite for another referendum amongst the wider population.
And what are the modernising reforms going to be? scrap the triple lock? sort out the adult social care budget? privatise the NHS?
While OGH likes harping on about the Tories leadership shortcomings I am not particularly impressed by lily livered Lib Dems failing to take on the not very Liberal Cable. Someone like Davey a former cabinet minister aged 51 should jump at the chance. Perhaps he see no future in it and talk of an impending new centrist party perhaps is a bit more than just talk.
This is his own explanation:
"Our joy this weekend was seeing our two children play together. And when you understand that John (aged 9) is severely disabled, you will appreciate that seeing our 3 year old daughter make him laugh is quite special.
And if it helps explain my decision not to run just a little more, please remember that my father died when I was 4 and my mother when I was 15. Being there for my children over the next few crucial years and to see those special moments is my personal priority.
So my decision not to stand now to be Leader of our party is a difficult one, but it is rooted in my family."
The truth is that May's threat to leave the EU on WTO rules is no more credible than Alexis Tsipras's threat to leave the Euro.
...
But the EU can walk away. After all, if it does nothing, the UK leaves on WTO rules that are a lot more damaging for the UK than they are for the EU. So the EU holds the upper hand. And the EU likes to play brinkmanship, especially when invited to do so by a foolhardy government. So my guess is that there will be a transitional deal. It will be hashed out in a brutal all-nighter just before the Article 50 notice expires. And in that meeting, May will agree to every single one of the EU's terms - because although they will fall a long way short of the benefits the UK currently enjoys, they will be better than the alternative.
The game will play out for the UK just as it did for Greece and Cyprus. And if any other governments are thinking of playing chicken with the EU - be warned. You will end up as roadkill.
She is great. If I were in Broxtowe, I could see myself voting for her.. (Sorry Nick!)
+1.
My favourite Tory MP. I was very glad to see that she held on in Broxtowe during GE night.
Sarah Wollaston pips her for me, hard to think of another. Nicky Morgan possibly.
Heidi Allen?
All the best Tories are really LibDems who put career before principle.
I struggle to think of a male Tory that I like now that Edward Garnier has retired, except George the boy wonder of course - the Radiohead of politicians.
Male Tory MPs is certainly stony soil, most of the worst of them depending on our corrupt electoral system for their continuing careers. There's Ken, of course. Cleverly, Zahawi and Mercer are worth listening to, as is Rory Stewart. Of the new intake, Seely might show some promise. Andrew Mitchell, Oliver Letwin and Nigel Evans have their occasional moments. Otherwise it is a barren field indeed.
The impetus for this kind of movement needs to almost come from somewhere entirely outside the existing political establishment.
And what exactly is their position going to be on leaving the EU? Soft Brexit? Some sort of transitional situation? There isn't the appetite for another referendum amongst the wider population.
There isn't the appetite now, but when it becomes patently obvious that Brexit is a monumental car crash that makes the Suez intervention look like a masterstroke, there will be such revulsion at where the country has ended up that it will wash away the careers of everyone who was implicated in it.
The political force to surf this wave successfully will have to offer a new course of joining the Euro and going all in on the EU, rather than a lily-livered variety of soft-Brexit.
Actually, I may just well agree with you on that one thinking about it now - I can't recall agreeing with another MP more in the last several years. She was brilliant in that interview on election night. She was also great in an interview with Owen Jones (yes, I know, not everyone's favourite person, but still).
Oh yes, I stumbled upon this video a few days after the election. It's brilliant. One of the most refreshing things about Anna Soubry (and even those who dislike her have to concede this point) is that she doesn't duck or dodge questions or fall back on stock phrases. She always gives direct answers and speaks her mind. The Prime Minister could learn a lot from her approach.
Though I'll admit that the fact that I (a Lib Dem member) and my brother (a Labour voter) both like her probably doesn't say much for her career propects in her chosen party.
The Tories have a decent few moderate MPs that are wasted on the backbenches - a great shame.
@foxinsoxuk I have to say, as I've started to view Osborne's 'austerity' budgets as more of a transfer of wealth from the young to the old more than anything else (anotherichard has some good posts on this) I've found it harder and harder to like him, no matter how socially liberally he is on abortion or gay marriage.
And what a sad comment on the state of the Labour Party that they need to be encouraged to step up to their responsibilities by a rogue Tory backbencher.
She should defect to Labour. They deserve her as she is perhaps the worst MP in Parliament.
What nonsense! The worst MPs are those lazy ones sitting in impregnable safe FPTnP seats in both of the main parties, who do nothing for either their constituents or their country.
Can I nominate David Tredinnick for worst MP in the country. Lives in Sussex, 150 miles from his Leics constituency. A true waste of space.
Agreed. A disgrace not just to parliament and his party, but to the people of this country. His actions have worsened the lives of thousands.
I'm worried about our government and Brexit. Specifically, I'm concerned that the UK is blithely assuming that the EU will roll over and give us the transition deal we want.
About nine months ago, when I was a fund manager, I had the management of a Taiwanese company in my office. Usually, when fund manager meets corporate, it is the fund manager that asks all the questions, and the corporate that answers them. This time was different: they were Brexit obsessed. Why did Britain leave the EU? Was it safe to invest in the UK? Would goods be able to travel tariff free between the UK and the EU? And, what would Britain's tariff schedule look like post-Brexit?
The first three questions I handled easily. But the fourth, I struggled with. HMG had - at the time - made no indication of whether it would have a British tariff schedule, or whether it would replicate the EU schedule. I looked online just now, to see what the planned schedule would be. There has been radio silence from the government. This seems to me to be utter madness. At the very least, they should say "irrespective of any deal with the EU, we will be implementing the EU tariff schedule at departure". (Better would be to have our own, lower, tariffs, but at least have the EU ones would enable everyone to plan.)
This is worrying for three reasons:
1. It suggests that the government is not as prepared for Brexit as they should be. The tariff schedule (which will ultimately require the unanimous acceptance of all 180 off WTO members) should be the simplest part of the process.
2. Uncertainty kills investment. If you are considering building a plant in the UK, and you don't know what tariffs will be imposed on your components, well... you might choose somewhere else. At the very least, you'll pause.
3. The longer this uncertainty goes on, the better the EU's hand relative to ours. Are we utterly dependent on a transitional deal, where we retain the customs union for a period? If so, the EU will extract a high price, irrespective of the legal rights and wrongs.
I hope I am unduly pessimistic. But publishing tariff schedules should be the first and simplest thing for the new Department for International Trade. It should be followed by a series of announcements of "Heads of Terms" with major non-EU trading partners to replicate existing arrangements. So for, however, despite it being 12 months since the Brexit vote, we have heard nothing. My pessimism feels warranted right now.
As discussed, you should have listened to your father.
While OGH likes harping on about the Tories leadership shortcomings I am not particularly impressed by lily livered Lib Dems failing to take on the not very Liberal Cable. Someone like Davey a former cabinet minister aged 51 should jump at the chance. Perhaps he see no future in it and talk of an impending new centrist party perhaps is a bit more than just talk.
This is his own explanation:
"Our joy this weekend was seeing our two children play together. And when you understand that John (aged 9) is severely disabled, you will appreciate that seeing our 3 year old daughter make him laugh is quite special.
And if it helps explain my decision not to run just a little more, please remember that my father died when I was 4 and my mother when I was 15. Being there for my children over the next few crucial years and to see those special moments is my personal priority.
So my decision not to stand now to be Leader of our party is a difficult one, but it is rooted in my family."
And what a sad comment on the state of the Labour Party that they need to be encouraged to step up to their responsibilities by a rogue Tory backbencher.
She should defect to Labour. They deserve her as she is perhaps the worst MP in Parliament.
What nonsense! The worst MPs are those lazy ones sitting in impregnable safe FPTnP seats in both of the main parties, who do nothing for either their constituents or their country.
Can I nominate David Tredinnick for worst MP in the country. Lives in Sussex, 150 miles from his Leics constituency. A true waste of space.
Agreed. A disgrace not just to parliament and his party, but to the people of this country. His actions have worsened the lives of thousands.
The impetus for this kind of movement needs to almost come from somewhere entirely outside the existing political establishment.
And what exactly is their position going to be on leaving the EU? Soft Brexit? Some sort of transitional situation? There isn't the appetite for another referendum amongst the wider population.
There isn't the appetite now, but when it becomes patently obvious that Brexit is a monumental car crash that makes the Suez intervention look like a masterstroke, there will be such revulsion at where the country has ended up that it will wash away the careers of everyone who was implicated in it.
The political force to surf this wave successfully will have to offer a new course of joining the Euro and going all in on the EU, rather than a lily-livered variety of soft-Brexit.
Whilst downthread Tories have revelled in turning the Corn Laws comparison into an economic one, I agree with you that the political analogy may well turn out to be the most apposite.
And what a sad comment on the state of the Labour Party that they need to be encouraged to step up to their responsibilities by a rogue Tory backbencher.
She should defect to Labour. They deserve her as she is perhaps the worst MP in Parliament.
What nonsense! The worst MPs are those lazy ones sitting in impregnable safe FPTnP seats in both of the main parties, who do nothing for either their constituents or their country.
Can I nominate David Tredinnick for worst MP in the country. Lives in Sussex, 150 miles from his Leics constituency. A true waste of space.
Agreed. A disgrace not just to parliament and his party, but to the people of this country. His actions have worsened the lives of thousands.
What has he done to deserve such opprobrium?
Worked tirelessly to divert NHS funds away from things that work and towards homeopathy. Oh, and been an anti-vaxxer too.
She is great. If I were in Broxtowe, I could see myself voting for her.. (Sorry Nick!)
+1.
My favourite Tory MP. I was very glad to see that she held on in Broxtowe during GE night.
Sarah Wollaston pips her for me, hard to think of another. Nicky Morgan possibly.
Heidi Allen?
All the best Tories are really LibDems who put career before principle.
I struggle to think of a male Tory that I like now that Edward Garnier has retired, except George the boy wonder of course - the Radiohead of politicians.
Male Tory MPs is certainly stony soil, most of the worst of them depending on our corrupt electoral system for their continuing careers. There's Ken, of course. Cleverly, Zahawi and Mercer are worth listening to, as is Rory Stewart. Of the new intake, Seely might show some promise. Andrew Mitchell, Oliver Letwin and Nigel Evans have their occasional moments. Otherwise it is a barren field indeed.
I forgot about Rory Stewart! Yes, he's been good for several years now. I've always wondered why he hasn't be promoted higher up the Tory ranks. I don't actually know too much about Johnny Mercer, I've only heard rave reviews of him (mainly from TSE) on PB. I've seen Cleverly on TV a few times, he's generally come across well (except when was defending Zac after the Richmond by-election in December on This Week).
The impetus for this kind of movement needs to almost come from somewhere entirely outside the existing political establishment.
And what exactly is their position going to be on leaving the EU? Soft Brexit? Some sort of transitional situation? There isn't the appetite for another referendum amongst the wider population.
There isn't the appetite now, but when it becomes patently obvious that Brexit is a monumental car crash that makes the Suez intervention look like a masterstroke, there will be such revulsion at where the country has ended up that it will wash away the careers of everyone who was implicated in it.
The political force to surf this wave successfully will have to offer a new course of joining the Euro and going all in on the EU, rather than a lily-livered variety of soft-Brexit.
I don't see any possible advantage in a soft Brexit that keeps freedom of movement. If we have to accept freedom of movement, we surely would just be better off staying in the EU.
The trouble is that the scenario you are hoping for depends essentially on us leaving the EU and it being a disaster. If we try and minimise the damage now, ie through a soft Brexit or trying to reverse the decision, then it will simply ignite all the forces that led to the decision in the first place.
While OGH likes harping on about the Tories leadership shortcomings I am not particularly impressed by lily livered Lib Dems failing to take on the not very Liberal Cable. Someone like Davey a former cabinet minister aged 51 should jump at the chance. Perhaps he see no future in it and talk of an impending new centrist party perhaps is a bit more than just talk.
This is his own explanation:
"Our joy this weekend was seeing our two children play together. And when you understand that John (aged 9) is severely disabled, you will appreciate that seeing our 3 year old daughter make him laugh is quite special.
And if it helps explain my decision not to run just a little more, please remember that my father died when I was 4 and my mother when I was 15. Being there for my children over the next few crucial years and to see those special moments is my personal priority.
So my decision not to stand now to be Leader of our party is a difficult one, but it is rooted in my family."
I wasn't aware of those reasons but I still have to ask why he indicated he was interested only a couple of weeks ago. It used to be the case you entered politics to reach a pinnacle, and leading a party of 12 is not quite the same as leading the country. Family sacrifices used to go with the territory.
See my post downthread
Indeed quite so but who's to say Jo Swinson is the saviour of her party any more then T May is. She might be but needs to be tested in a leadership election, much as Vince should be.
I agree with that. But with only 12 MPs, some of them completely new to Westminster, some of them like Davey and Lamb with legitimate reasons for not standing, it is genuinely difficult to organise a competition. It is a shame we don't have 57 MPs.
Actually, I may just well agree with you on that one thinking about it now - I can't recall agreeing with another MP more in the last several years. She was brilliant in that interview on election night. She was also great in an interview with Owen Jones (yes, I know, not everyone's favourite person, but still).
Oh yes, I stumbled upon this video a few days after the election. It's brilliant. One of the most refreshing things about Anna Soubry (and even those who dislike her have to concede this point) is that she doesn't duck or dodge questions or fall back on stock phrases. She always gives direct answers and speaks her mind. The Prime Minister could learn a lot from her approach.
Though I'll admit that the fact that I (a Lib Dem member) and my brother (a Labour voter) both like her probably doesn't say much for her career propects in her chosen party.
Actually, I may just well agree with you on that one thinking about it now - I can't recall agreeing with another MP more in the last several years. She was brilliant in that interview on election night. She was also great in an interview with Owen Jones (yes, I know, not everyone's favourite person, but still).
Oh yes, I stumbled upon this video a few days after the election. It's brilliant. One of the most refreshing things about Anna Soubry (and even those who dislike her have to concede this point) is that she doesn't duck or dodge questions or fall back on stock phrases. She always gives direct answers and speaks her mind. The Prime Minister could learn a lot from her approach.
Though I'll admit that the fact that I (a Lib Dem member) and my brother (a Labour voter) both like her probably doesn't say much for her career propects in her chosen party.
The Tories have a decent few moderate MPs that are wasted on the backbenches - a great shame.
@foxinsoxuk I have to say, as I've started to view Osborne's 'austerity' budgets as more of a transfer of wealth from the young to the old more than anything else (anotherichard has some good posts on this) I've found it harder and harder to like him, no matter how socially liberally he is on abortion or gay marriage.
(I agree, but having offended in the music stakes, I am on thin ice with the mods. If they found out that I like Hawian pizza it would be Tally ho for old Dr Foxy)
Full marks Mr Smithson. I don't think you'll get to financially benefit from your wisdom though.
However, finding a young hopeful as next tory leader could be a spin-off coup.
Mrs May is just awful at GEs - she's perfectly fine as a serving PM, and despite the wobbles quite good.
May forever... well, for a while.
The big question is how on earth you pull the educational socks up of the general public. They voted in great numbers for a lemon. That's really tough.
I'm worried about our government and Brexit. Specifically, I'm concerned that the UK is blithely assuming that the EU will roll over and give us the transition deal we want.
About nine months ago, when I was a fund manager, I had the management of a Taiwanese company in my office. Usually, when fund manager meets corporate, it is the fund manager that asks all the questions, and the corporate that answers them. This time was different: they were Brexit obsessed. Why did Britain leave the EU? Was it safe to invest in the UK? Would goods be able to travel tariff free between the UK and the EU? And, what would Britain's tariff schedule look like post-Brexit?
The first three questions I handled easily. But the fourth, I struggled with. HMG had - at the time - made no indication of whether it would have a British tariff schedule, or whether it would replicate the EU schedule. I looked online just now, to see what the planned schedule would be. There has been radio silence from the government. This seems to me to be utter madness. At the very least, they should say "irrespective of any deal with the EU, we will be implementing the EU tariff schedule at departure". (Better would be to have our own, lower, tariffs, but at least have the EU ones would enable everyone to plan.)
This is worrying for three reasons:
1. It suggests that the government is not as prepared for Brexit as they should be. The tariff schedule (which will ultimately require the unanimous acceptance of all 180 off WTO members) should be the simplest part of the process.
2. Uncertainty kills investment. If you are considering building a plant in the UK, and you don't know what tariffs will be imposed on your components, well... you might choose somewhere else. At the very least, you'll pause.
3. The longer this uncertainty goes on, the better the EU's hand relative to ours. Are we utterly dependent on a transitional deal, where we retain the customs union for a period? If so, the EU will extract a high price, irrespective of the legal rights and wrongs.
I hope I am unduly pessimistic. But publishing tariff schedules should be the first and simplest thing for the new Department for International Trade. It should be followed by a series of announcements of "Heads of Terms" with major non-EU trading partners to replicate existing arrangements. So for, however, despite it being 12 months since the Brexit vote, we have heard nothing. My pessimism feels warranted right now.
My personal concerns about Brexit and the way the government is handling it go far beyond tariff schedules.
The impetus for this kind of movement needs to almost come from somewhere entirely outside the existing political establishment.
And what exactly is their position going to be on leaving the EU? Soft Brexit? Some sort of transitional situation? There isn't the appetite for another referendum amongst the wider population.
There isn't the appetite now, but when it becomes patently obvious that Brexit is a monumental car crash that makes the Suez intervention look like a masterstroke, there will be such revulsion at where the country has ended up that it will wash away the careers of everyone who was implicated in it.
The political force to surf this wave successfully will have to offer a new course of joining the Euro and going all in on the EU, rather than a lily-livered variety of soft-Brexit.
I don't see any possible advantage in a soft Brexit that keeps freedom of movement. If we have to accept freedom of movement, we surely would just be better off staying in the EU.
The trouble is that the scenario you are hoping for depends essentially on us leaving the EU and it being a disaster. If we try and minimise the damage now, ie through a soft Brexit or trying to reverse the decision, then it will simply ignite all the forces that led to the decision in the first place.
Call it the remainers dilemma.
Freedom of movement without entitlement to welfare and other benefits is compatible with Single Market membership, though of course we could actually do a lot in that direction within the EU if we chose.
My favourite Tory MP. I was very glad to see that she held on in Broxtowe during GE night.
I agree 100%. She's great. She's my favourite MP of any party - and I say this as a Lib Dem member. For me, the brief interview with her on the BBC results show was the most memorable moment of election night.
Actually, I may just well agree with you on that one thinking about it now - I can't recall agreeing with another MP more in the last several years. She was brilliant in that interview on election night. She was also great in an interview with Owen Jones (yes, I know, not everyone's favourite person, but still).
One of my Labour activist friends has another theory.
Those voters stuck with Labour to stop Labour getting wiped out.
Had the polls been more accurate, Labour might have been screwed.
To what does he attribute the continued increase in Labour support in polls since the eleciton, then?
I have never met in 50 years of canvassing a voter who said "I dislike party X but I'm going to vote for them as I don't want them wiped out". Not Labour, not Tories. It's the sort of political sophistry that doesn't penetrate far beyond sites like PB.
I voted for a Tory administration I fairly deeply disliked in '97 in the sure conviction that the Major was going to lose, and not wanting them to lose disastrously, as I suspected there was something of the charlatan about Blair. (And though I disliked the administration, I thought Clarke a good chancellor.)
I recognise that I am a far from typical voter, though.
The impetus for this kind of movement needs to almost come from somewhere entirely outside the existing political establishment.
And what exactly is their position going to be on leaving the EU? Soft Brexit? Some sort of transitional situation? There isn't the appetite for another referendum amongst the wider population.
There isn't the appetite now, but when it becomes patently obvious that Brexit is a monumental car crash that makes the Suez intervention look like a masterstroke, there will be such revulsion at where the country has ended up that it will wash away the careers of everyone who was implicated in it.
The political force to surf this wave successfully will have to offer a new course of joining the Euro and going all in on the EU, rather than a lily-livered variety of soft-Brexit.
Hallelujah! Liam Fox looked more spooked and sweaty yesterday than Ceausescu when they booed him at his last rally. I can't see Brexit ending in anything other than career ruination for all involved.
Actually, I may just well agree with you on that one thinking about it now - I can't recall agreeing with another MP more in the last several years. She was brilliant in that interview on election night. She was also great in an interview with Owen Jones (yes, I know, not everyone's favourite person, but still).
Oh yes, I stumbled upon this video a few days after the election. It's brilliant. One of the most refreshing things about Anna Soubry (and even those who dislike her have to concede this point) is that she doesn't duck or dodge questions or fall back on stock phrases. She always gives direct answers and speaks her mind. The Prime Minister could learn a lot from her approach.
Though I'll admit that the fact that I (a Lib Dem member) and my brother (a Labour voter) both like her probably doesn't say much for her career propects in her chosen party.
I wish Corbyn had half her bottle. We might not now be leaving. Incidentally I don't believe he and McDonnell will escape the cull after Brexit unravels
Care to explain why "WTO rules [are] a lot more damaging for the UK than they are for the EU"?
There is zero evidence that this is true. Quite the opposite in fact - the EU has a trade surplus with the UK and most EU countries trade far less with the rest of the World than the UK.
Remainers seem to think that the EU can both grant itself access to UK markets and withhold access to EU markets. Weird.
The truth is that May's threat to leave the EU on WTO rules is no more credible than Alexis Tsipras's threat to leave the Euro.
...
But the EU can walk away. After all, if it does nothing, the UK leaves on WTO rules that are a lot more damaging for the UK than they are for the EU. So the EU holds the upper hand. And the EU likes to play brinkmanship, especially when invited to do so by a foolhardy government. So my guess is that there will be a transitional deal. It will be hashed out in a brutal all-nighter just before the Article 50 notice expires. And in that meeting, May will agree to every single one of the EU's terms - because although they will fall a long way short of the benefits the UK currently enjoys, they will be better than the alternative.
The game will play out for the UK just as it did for Greece and Cyprus. And if any other governments are thinking of playing chicken with the EU - be warned. You will end up as roadkill.
Comments
Actually, I may just well agree with you on that one thinking about it now - I can't recall agreeing with another MP more in the last several years. She was brilliant in that interview on election night. She was also great in an interview with Owen Jones (yes, I know, not everyone's favourite person, but still).
Here it is, for anyone that may be interested:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h4E7-aPBBCI
1) Motion to suspend Article 50
2) Motion "recognising no deal is worst possible deal" (Lab front bench)
3) Motion to regret not staying in single market and customs union
Incidentally May has still not announced any list of new Peers - think it was reported she was against the idea but seems crazy not to take opportunity to bolster Con numbers.
Full details:
http://calendar.parliament.uk/calendar/Lords/All/2017/6/28/Daily
Though I'll admit that the fact that I (a Lib Dem member) and my brother (a Labour voter) both like her probably doesn't say much for her career propects in her chosen party.
I have never met in 50 years of canvassing a voter who said "I dislike party X but I'm going to vote for them as I don't want them wiped out". Not Labour, not Tories. It's the sort of political sophistry that doesn't penetrate far beyond sites like PB.
I'm worried about our government and Brexit. Specifically, I'm concerned that the UK is blithely assuming that the EU will roll over and give us the transition deal we want.
About nine months ago, when I was a fund manager, I had the management of a Taiwanese company in my office. Usually, when fund manager meets corporate, it is the fund manager that asks all the questions, and the corporate that answers them. This time was different: they were Brexit obsessed. Why did Britain leave the EU? Was it safe to invest in the UK? Would goods be able to travel tariff free between the UK and the EU? And, what would Britain's tariff schedule look like post-Brexit?
The first three questions I handled easily. But the fourth, I struggled with. HMG had - at the time - made no indication of whether it would have a British tariff schedule, or whether it would replicate the EU schedule. I looked online just now, to see what the planned schedule would be. There has been radio silence from the government. This seems to me to be utter madness. At the very least, they should say "irrespective of any deal with the EU, we will be implementing the EU tariff schedule at departure". (Better would be to have our own, lower, tariffs, but at least have the EU ones would enable everyone to plan.)
This is worrying for three reasons:
1. It suggests that the government is not as prepared for Brexit as they should be. The tariff schedule (which will ultimately require the unanimous acceptance of all 180 off WTO members) should be the simplest part of the process.
2. Uncertainty kills investment. If you are considering building a plant in the UK, and you don't know what tariffs will be imposed on your components, well... you might choose somewhere else. At the very least, you'll pause.
3. The longer this uncertainty goes on, the better the EU's hand relative to ours. Are we utterly dependent on a transitional deal, where we retain the customs union for a period? If so, the EU will extract a high price, irrespective of the legal rights and wrongs.
I hope I am unduly pessimistic. But publishing tariff schedules should be the first and simplest thing for the new Department for International Trade. It should be followed by a series of announcements of "Heads of Terms" with major non-EU trading partners to replicate existing arrangements. So for, however, despite it being 12 months since the Brexit vote, we have heard nothing. My pessimism feels warranted right now.
The impetus for this kind of movement needs to almost come from somewhere entirely outside the existing political establishment.
And what exactly is their position going to be on leaving the EU? Soft Brexit? Some sort of transitional situation? There isn't the appetite for another referendum amongst the wider population.
And what are the modernising reforms going to be? scrap the triple lock? sort out the adult social care budget? privatise the NHS?
The truth is that May's threat to leave the EU on WTO rules is no more credible than Alexis Tsipras's threat to leave the Euro.
...
But the EU can walk away. After all, if it does nothing, the UK leaves on WTO rules that are a lot more damaging for the UK than they are for the EU. So the EU holds the upper hand. And the EU likes to play brinkmanship, especially when invited to do so by a foolhardy government. So my guess is that there will be a transitional deal. It will be hashed out in a brutal all-nighter just before the Article 50 notice expires. And in that meeting, May will agree to every single one of the EU's terms - because although they will fall a long way short of the benefits the UK currently enjoys, they will be better than the alternative.
The game will play out for the UK just as it did for Greece and Cyprus. And if any other governments are thinking of playing chicken with the EU - be warned. You will end up as roadkill.
A very interesting post! I don't think it would happen, but a pro-Europe grouping could indeed emerge. It's all about timing.
The political force to surf this wave successfully will have to offer a new course of joining the Euro and going all in on the EU, rather than a lily-livered variety of soft-Brexit.
@foxinsoxuk I have to say, as I've started to view Osborne's 'austerity' budgets as more of a transfer of wealth from the young to the old more than anything else (anotherichard has some good posts on this) I've found it harder and harder to like him, no matter how socially liberally he is on abortion or gay marriage.
The trouble is that the scenario you are hoping for depends essentially on us leaving the EU and it being a disaster. If we try and minimise the damage now, ie through a soft Brexit or trying to reverse the decision, then it will simply ignite all the forces that led to the decision in the first place.
Call it the remainers dilemma.
However, finding a young hopeful as next tory leader could be a spin-off coup.
Mrs May is just awful at GEs - she's perfectly fine as a serving PM, and despite the wobbles quite good.
May forever... well, for a while.
The big question is how on earth you pull the educational socks up of the general public. They voted in great numbers for a lemon. That's really tough.
Discuss...
I recognise that I am a far from typical voter, though.
In which case, you have my full support in attacking him. Homeopathy = lots of money for a tiny bit of water.
NEW THREAD
There is zero evidence that this is true. Quite the opposite in fact - the EU has a trade surplus with the UK and most EU countries trade far less with the rest of the World than the UK.
Remainers seem to think that the EU can both grant itself access to UK markets and withhold access to EU markets. Weird.