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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In Tory leadership races the assassin rarely becomes the repla

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited July 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In Tory leadership races the assassin rarely becomes the replacement

There’s almost a story a day running on who’ll be TMay’s successor although she’s given no indication other than that she’s staying put at Number 10 and would probably like to remain to beyond Brexit and beyond.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    First!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Second!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    A friend who was active in the Oxford University Tories in the late 1970s tells me that Green and May were the dominant figures of his era and that the former was always seen as the one most likely to succeed.

    I knew them both and while I wouldn't describe them as 'dominant' I certainly concur that if asked 'who would make PM' I would have gone for Green. He made President of the Union while May 'only' got as far as Librarian.

    Pity the posh boys passed him over for high office for weaker but more telegenic figures.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880
    Green is a generic flabby and depressed looking middle aged white man. The Horde are probably fucked whoever they choose but need someone with an element of fuhrer kontakt to have any chance at all.
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    There isn't going to be an "assassin". When Mrs May goes, she will go in her own time and at the right time. That might be 2019, or it might be later, or it might even be earlier. Then the new leader will emerge, or be elected, or will spontaneously generate out of the ectoplasm, but it will not be necessary for there to be any assassination or stabbing in the front or stabbing in the back or delegation of men in grey suits or Heseltine or the Prime Minister's Willie.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    The Tory leadership system changes removed the possibility, or need, for an assassin.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    Simon Jenkins - always worth a read - arguing that May can come back like Thatcher after 1981. I don't buy the comparison; the Falklands War uniquely saved Mrs T, she had a big majority, allies, and Brexit is unlikely to turn into any sort of success. But his is an interesting counter-argument:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jul/19/thatcher-theresa-may-fox-lion-survive
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    FPT (and o/t)
    Pulpstar said:

    Yep Musk has decided this too. Dragon 2 goal is human rated. Propulsive landing would be an additional complication so it is sensible to ditch it and focus that effort towards ITS development

    I fear it's a bit more complex than that. SpacX have been working on propulsive landing of their Dragon 2 capsule for years now, and developed rocket motors to do it. This gave them the option of landing a capsule on land (unlike all other US capsules at sea), which is much cheaper - you don't need loads of ships at sea to pick it up.

    Firstly, NASA wanted backup parachutes. This added weight. Secondly, they've nixed the propulsive landings by saying they wanted the heat shield unbroken by rocket motors or landing legs - understandable after Challenger.

    This left propulsive landings for just cargo Dragon 2's, and it would not be worth doing it for just that. This also nixed Red Dragon, which was to use that technology, and would have been useful to provide data for atmospheric re-entries of heavy bodies on Mars.

    SpaceX wanted propulsive landings for many reasons: it's cheaper, it reduces reliance on the US government (the ships at sea), and it's more flexible. NASA didn't want it for all those reasons, and they're the paymaster.

    In a day of generally bad news for SpaceX, Musk also cast some doubt on the likelihood of the Falcon Heavy's first flight succeeding.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    I wonder why Ladbrokes have suspended IDS from their Next Tory leaderboard?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    IanB2 said:

    Simon Jenkins - always worth a read - arguing that May can come back like Thatcher after 1981. I don't buy the comparison; the Falklands War uniquely saved Mrs T, she had a big majority, allies, and Brexit is unlikely to turn into any sort of success. But his is an interesting counter-argument:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jul/19/thatcher-theresa-may-fox-lion-survive

    I agree (and hope!) a 'Falklands' is unlikely to occur - but the post GE phase has very much reminded me of 1981 - female PM who was a 'dead woman walking' to borrow a sacked politician's phrase - it was 'only a matter of when, not if' - yet Thatcher was there for nearly another decade......May won't last that long, but ask a Russian owned free-sheet editor if she lacks ruthlessness......
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    Green, decent man that he seems to be, has the charisma of a dead haddock.

    While charisma isn't everything (the manifest unsuitability of Boris springs to mind), some will argue that its absence did Major no harm in 1990, But Major was in his 40s when he took over; Green will be 66 at the likely time of the next election.

    There is also the question of his political competence and judgment, for which there isn't a huge amount of evidence in either direction. The impression I had up until now was ineffectualness, but It's possible he might surprise now he's in a position of real power and influence.

    Green might do as a stopgap, but that is not what the Tories need. As someone to lead a recovery, he seems rather unlikely - though of course so do all the alternatives. He is at least in a position to be able to display prime ministerial qualities, which I think is the only chance of his actually getting the top job.

    70/1 seems an OK dabble, but hardly a must have long shot.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    edited July 2017

    IanB2 said:

    Simon Jenkins - always worth a read - arguing that May can come back like Thatcher after 1981. I don't buy the comparison; the Falklands War uniquely saved Mrs T, she had a big majority, allies, and Brexit is unlikely to turn into any sort of success. But his is an interesting counter-argument:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jul/19/thatcher-theresa-may-fox-lion-survive

    I agree (and hope!) a 'Falklands' is unlikely to occur - but the post GE phase has very much reminded me of 1981 - female PM who was a 'dead woman walking' to borrow a sacked politician's phrase - it was 'only a matter of when, not if' - yet Thatcher was there for nearly another decade......May won't last that long, but ask a Russian owned free-sheet editor if she lacks ruthlessness......
    Thatcher was disliked in 1981 - though nowhere near the levels of later years - but she was not a object of ridicule. (edit) And she was far from a dead woman walking at that point, even if way behind in the polls. I can't remember any serious suggestion that she be replaced before the next election
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    IanB2 said:

    Simon Jenkins - always worth a read - arguing that May can come back like Thatcher after 1981. I don't buy the comparison; the Falklands War uniquely saved Mrs T, she had a big majority, allies, and Brexit is unlikely to turn into any sort of success. But his is an interesting counter-argument:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jul/19/thatcher-theresa-may-fox-lion-survive

    I agree (and hope!) a 'Falklands' is unlikely to occur - but the post GE phase has very much reminded me of 1981 - female PM who was a 'dead woman walking' to borrow a sacked politician's phrase - it was 'only a matter of when, not if' - yet Thatcher was there for nearly another decade......May won't last that long, but ask a Russian owned free-sheet editor if she lacks ruthlessness......
    I don't think May will outlast conference. As well as the worst campaign in history, there is the increasingly shambolic approach to Brexit. I see conference favouring a headbanger in the leadership, as their precious Brexit floundering will agitate the swivel eyed loons.

    Worth noting that it was not the Falklands that saved Maggie (despite this her vote share fell from 1979 to 83), it was the split opposition. While Foot was undermined by a strong SDP/Liberal challenge in votes, Corbyn is sitting pretty, with the equivalent centre party on life support. Cable is a poor choice for leader, but also I cannot see him gaining seats or votes off Labour. What effect he has will mostly be to take votes off the Tories.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881

    <
    I don't think May will outlast conference. As well as the worst campaign in history, there is the increasingly shambolic approach to Brexit. I see conference favouring a headbanger in the leadership, as their precious Brexit floundering will agitate the swivel eyed loons.

    Have you bet on that? Would you like to?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575

    IanB2 said:

    Simon Jenkins - always worth a read - arguing that May can come back like Thatcher after 1981. I don't buy the comparison; the Falklands War uniquely saved Mrs T, she had a big majority, allies, and Brexit is unlikely to turn into any sort of success. But his is an interesting counter-argument:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jul/19/thatcher-theresa-may-fox-lion-survive

    I agree (and hope!) a 'Falklands' is unlikely to occur - but the post GE phase has very much reminded me of 1981 - female PM who was a 'dead woman walking' to borrow a sacked politician's phrase - it was 'only a matter of when, not if' - yet Thatcher was there for nearly another decade......May won't last that long, but ask a Russian owned free-sheet editor if she lacks ruthlessness......
    I don't think May will outlast conference. As well as the worst campaign in history, there is the increasingly shambolic approach to Brexit. I see conference favouring a headbanger in the leadership, as their precious Brexit floundering will agitate the swivel eyed loons.

    Worth noting that it was not the Falklands that saved Maggie (despite this her vote share fell from 1979 to 83), it was the split opposition. While Foot was undermined by a strong SDP/Liberal challenge in votes, Corbyn is sitting pretty, with the equivalent centre party on life support. Cable is a poor choice for leader, but also I cannot see him gaining seats or votes off Labour. What effect he has will mostly be to take votes off the Tories.
    And 1981, which Carlotta puts forward, was of course the year of the Limehouse declaration. I suppose it's theoretically possible that Labour splits before the next election, but it seems extraordinarily unlikely.
  • Richard_HRichard_H Posts: 48
    Theresa May will become another ex-PM before the end of this year and i am not sure who will replace her. The Tories will probably allow TM a conference speech and then when back at Westminster the infighting will start.

    Do the Tories choose a Brexiteer or a remain voter who now backs the 'will of the people' ? I am not convinced a Brexiteer such as DD, Boris or Fox would be good at unifying the Tories. There is no consensus about UK's ideal future relationship with the EU. I am not sure the Tories will have enough support in Parliament to stay in Government until March 2019. I think whoever becomes new Tory leader/PM by December 2017, will call an early election in Spring 2018.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    May is no Thatcher.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Jonathan said:

    May is no Thatcher.

    Neither was Thatcher in 1981.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    rkrkrk said:

    <
    I don't think May will outlast conference. As well as the worst campaign in history, there is the increasingly shambolic approach to Brexit. I see conference favouring a headbanger in the leadership, as their precious Brexit floundering will agitate the swivel eyed loons.

    Have you bet on that? Would you like to?
    I have reinvested some of my Macron* and GE winnings** on the Betfair exchange markets. May is a coward and this will be her last conference as leader. Like IDS, she may well get a North Korea like standing ovation, followed by defenestration within weeks.

    * Thanks to Chris from Paris who is TOTY.

    ** Thanks to a swift reverse ferret courtesy of the exit poll. Even afterwards it was better than evens on NOM.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Jonathan said:

    May is no Thatcher.

    Neither was Thatcher in 1981.
    Er, no. Thatcher had won a majority in 1979. Sold council houses from 1980. And had the famous Howe budget in 1981.

    May has done precisely nothing.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084

    IanB2 said:

    Simon Jenkins - always worth a read - arguing that May can come back like Thatcher after 1981. I don't buy the comparison; the Falklands War uniquely saved Mrs T, she had a big majority, allies, and Brexit is unlikely to turn into any sort of success. But his is an interesting counter-argument:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jul/19/thatcher-theresa-may-fox-lion-survive

    I agree (and hope!) a 'Falklands' is unlikely to occur - but the post GE phase has very much reminded me of 1981 - female PM who was a 'dead woman walking' to borrow a sacked politician's phrase - it was 'only a matter of when, not if' - yet Thatcher was there for nearly another decade......May won't last that long, but ask a Russian owned free-sheet editor if she lacks ruthlessness......
    I don't think May will outlast conference. As well as the worst campaign in history, there is the increasingly shambolic approach to Brexit. I see conference favouring a headbanger in the leadership, as their precious Brexit floundering will agitate the swivel eyed loons.

    Worth noting that it was not the Falklands that saved Maggie (despite this her vote share fell from 1979 to 83), it was the split opposition. While Foot was undermined by a strong SDP/Liberal challenge in votes, Corbyn is sitting pretty, with the equivalent centre party on life support. Cable is a poor choice for leader, but also I cannot see him gaining seats or votes off Labour. What effect he has will mostly be to take votes off the Tories.
    The Alliance was ahead in the polls, with the Tories trailing badly - the Falklands punctured the Alliance bubble and put the Tories back in contention. Of course, you could argue that the bubble might have subsided anyway in advance of the 1983 election (when the Alliance nevertheless nearly made second place in vote share) but there is no doubt that the Falklands brought their elecioral dominance to a very swift end, playing a key part in allowing Thatcher to survive.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Jonathan said:

    May is no Thatcher.

    Neither was Thatcher in 1981.
    May resembles Maggie in 1989 more than the 1981 version. Isolated, paranoid and without any feeling for the public. The worst campaign in history is her poll tax rather than her Falklands.
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,274

    IanB2 said:

    Simon Jenkins - always worth a read - arguing that May can come back like Thatcher after 1981. I don't buy the comparison; the Falklands War uniquely saved Mrs T, she had a big majority, allies, and Brexit is unlikely to turn into any sort of success. But his is an interesting counter-argument:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jul/19/thatcher-theresa-may-fox-lion-survive

    I agree (and hope!) a 'Falklands' is unlikely to occur - but the post GE phase has very much reminded me of 1981 - female PM who was a 'dead woman walking' to borrow a sacked politician's phrase - it was 'only a matter of when, not if' - yet Thatcher was there for nearly another decade......May won't last that long, but ask a Russian owned free-sheet editor if she lacks ruthlessness......
    I don't think May will outlast conference. As well as the worst campaign in history, there is the increasingly shambolic approach to Brexit. I see conference favouring a headbanger in the leadership, as their precious Brexit floundering will agitate the swivel eyed loons.

    Worth noting that it was not the Falklands that saved Maggie (despite this her vote share fell from 1979 to 83), it was the split opposition. While Foot was undermined by a strong SDP/Liberal challenge in votes, Corbyn is sitting pretty, with the equivalent centre party on life support. Cable is a poor choice for leader, but also I cannot see him gaining seats or votes off Labour. What effect he has will mostly be to take votes off the Tories.
    Neither the opinion of Conference nor 'infighting' counts for anything. May can only be toppled by an explicit vote of her MPs. Once that deed be done, of course, no one knows the ultimate outcome. This will cause all but the most incurable hotheads to hesitate.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084

    Jonathan said:

    May is no Thatcher.

    Neither was Thatcher in 1981.
    May resembles Maggie in 1989 more than the 1981 version. Isolated, paranoid and without any feeling for the public. The worst campaign in history is her poll tax rather than her Falklands.
    Brexit is her poll tax. I don't see a 1980s (Tory) comparison for the campaign!
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited July 2017
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Simon Jenkins - always worth a read - arguing that May can come back like Thatcher after 1981. I don't buy the comparison; the Falklands War uniquely saved Mrs T, she had a big majority, allies, and Brexit is unlikely to turn into any sort of success. But his is an interesting counter-argument:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jul/19/thatcher-theresa-may-fox-lion-survive

    I agree (and hope!) a 'Falklands' is unlikely to occur - but the post GE phase has very much reminded me of 1981 - female PM who was a 'dead woman walking' to borrow a sacked politician's phrase - it was 'only a matter of when, not if' - yet Thatcher was there for nearly another decade......May won't last that long, but ask a Russian owned free-sheet editor if she lacks ruthlessness......
    I don't think May will outlast conference. As well as the worst campaign in history, there is the increasingly shambolic approach to Brexit. I see conference favouring a headbanger in the leadership, as their precious Brexit floundering will agitate the swivel eyed loons.

    Worth noting that it was not the Falklands that saved Maggie (despite this her vote share fell from 1979 to 83), it was the split opposition. While Foot was undermined by a strong SDP/Liberal challenge in votes, Corbyn is sitting pretty, with the equivalent centre party on life support. Cable is a poor choice for leader, but also I cannot see him gaining seats or votes off Labour. What effect he has will mostly be to take votes off the Tories.
    The Alliance was ahead in the polls, with the Tories trailing badly - the Falklands punctured the Alliance bubble and put the Tories back in contention. Of course, you could argue that the bubble might have subsided anyway in advance of the 1983 election (when the Alliance nevertheless nearly made second place in vote share) but there is no doubt that the Falklands brought their elecioral dominance to a very swift end, playing a key part in allowing Thatcher to survive.
    Sure, there was a big Falklands factor, but it was the split opposition that gave her the victory. She lost vote share. 1983 was the worst campaign in history, but that wooden spoon now belongs to May.

    Corbyn is now unchallengeable in Labour, and even I as a member of the LDs cannot vote for Cable. The Fox household of 3 all voted LD in June, but the others are now with Corbyn, and I may well join them too.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    IanB2 said:

    Simon Jenkins - always worth a read - arguing that May can come back like Thatcher after 1981. I don't buy the comparison; the Falklands War uniquely saved Mrs T, she had a big majority, allies, and Brexit is unlikely to turn into any sort of success. But his is an interesting counter-argument:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jul/19/thatcher-theresa-may-fox-lion-survive

    I agree (and hope!) a 'Falklands' is unlikely to occur - but the post GE phase has very much reminded me of 1981 - female PM who was a 'dead woman walking' to borrow a sacked politician's phrase - it was 'only a matter of when, not if' - yet Thatcher was there for nearly another decade......May won't last that long, but ask a Russian owned free-sheet editor if she lacks ruthlessness......
    I don't think May will outlast conference
    Confirmation bias. The people who could get rid of her - the '22 went to her and told her to sack trouble makers. This is not only like 1981 - it's also like 2010.....
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    For those who weren't around in 1981:

    As the recession’s grip held firm at the beginning of 1981, unemployment neared 3m, manufacturing capacity fell by fifth, and the lifeblood of the British mining community ebbed away. Discontent was rife, and culminated in urban riots in the summer of that year.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/recession/4323064/UK-recession-in-1980-What-was-it-like.html
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited July 2017

    IanB2 said:

    Simon Jenkins - always worth a read - arguing that May can come back like Thatcher after 1981. I don't buy the comparison; the Falklands War uniquely saved Mrs T, she had a big majority, allies, and Brexit is unlikely to turn into any sort of success. But his is an interesting counter-argument:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jul/19/thatcher-theresa-may-fox-lion-survive

    I agree (and hope!) a 'Falklands' is unlikely to occur - but the post GE phase has very much reminded me of 1981 - female PM who was a 'dead woman walking' to borrow a sacked politician's phrase - it was 'only a matter of when, not if' - yet Thatcher was there for nearly another decade......May won't last that long, but ask a Russian owned free-sheet editor if she lacks ruthlessness......
    I don't think May will outlast conference
    Confirmation bias. The people who could get rid of her - the '22 went to her and told her to sack trouble makers. This is not only like 1981 - it's also like 2010.....
    That backbenchers have to tell her what to do, and even then for her to be too weak to actually do it, does not strike me as like Maggie.

    She is doomed, the only question is who next drinks from the poisoned chalice of Brexit. I cannot see a Remainer winning, it will be a true Brexit believer.
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,274
    IanB2 said:

    Jonathan said:

    May is no Thatcher.

    Neither was Thatcher in 1981.
    May resembles Maggie in 1989 more than the 1981 version. Isolated, paranoid and without any feeling for the public. The worst campaign in history is her poll tax rather than her Falklands.
    Brexit is her poll tax. I don't see a 1980s (Tory) comparison for the campaign!
    The Tories are shocked that the anti-Marxist rhetoric did not gain traction against Corbyn. The prime motivator is to keep Labour out and think tnrough a better strategy. They have five years to do this so why rush? Simply lashing out and changing leader just for the sake of it will only make a GE more likely. What is more it would look criminally irresposible to put the government out of action while they wasted weeks of the fast diminishing Brexit timetable conducting a leadership election.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    It is likely to be the most amusing conference season for some time.

    May has to make a speech that will be the most grovelling & humiliating apology in the world.

    But, she is not the only one. Almost the whole of the PLP will be eating crow, as well.

    There will be Crow Banquets at both the Labour and Tory Party conferences.

    Many of us will delight in seeing politicians force down their unpalatable food in public.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    For those who weren't around in 1981:

    As the recession’s grip held firm at the beginning of 1981, unemployment neared 3m, manufacturing capacity fell by fifth, and the lifeblood of the British mining community ebbed away. Discontent was rife, and culminated in urban riots in the summer of that year.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/recession/4323064/UK-recession-in-1980-What-was-it-like.html

    Thatcher was brutal. May is rubbish. Big difference.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Simon Jenkins - always worth a read - arguing that May can come back like Thatcher after 1981. I don't buy the comparison; the Falklands War uniquely saved Mrs T, she had a big majority, allies, and Brexit is unlikely to turn into any sort of success. But his is an interesting counter-argument:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jul/19/thatcher-theresa-may-fox-lion-survive

    I agree (and hope!) a 'Falklands' is unlikely to occur - but the post GE phase has very much reminded me of 1981 - female PM who was a 'dead woman walking' to borrow a sacked politician's phrase - it was 'only a matter of when, not if' - yet Thatcher was there for nearly another decade......May won't last that long, but ask a Russian owned free-sheet editor if she lacks ruthlessness......

    Worth noting that it was not the Falklands that saved Maggie (despite this her vote share fell from 1979 to 83), it was the split opposition. While Foot was undermined by a strong SDP/Liberal challenge in votes, Corbyn is sitting pretty, with the equivalent centre party on life support. Cable is a poor choice for leader, but also I cannot see him gaining seats or votes off Labour. What effect he has will mostly be to take votes off the Tories.
    The Alliance was ahead in the polls, with the Tories trailing badly - the Falklands punctured the Alliance bubble and put the Tories back in contention. Of course, you could argue that the bubble might have subsided anyway in advance of the 1983 election (when the Alliance nevertheless nearly made second place in vote share) but there is no doubt that the Falklands brought their elecioral dominance to a very swift end, playing a key part in allowing Thatcher to survive.
    As one who was politically active, albeit at a local level, in the laste 70’s/3early 80’s I really wish I’d kept a diary!
    However, my recollection, FWIW, is that until Maggie whipped up national enthusiasm for miltitary action to retake the Falklands a hung Parliament was expected when she finally limped to the polls.
    it’s difficult now to remember the enthusiasm for a 'new kind of politics’ that Steel, Jenkins, Williams and Owen represented.

    I don’t think Cable’s the best leader the LD’s could have, but at least he’s got a positive Press image, and some of the new LD MP’s could start making a splash when the silly season is over. It’s worth noting that in 2015 all their MP’s were seat holders; now, as well as returners like Cable himself ....... and the big turnover in votes 2010-17 in Twickenham is in itself noteworthy ...... there are several newcomers.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    Jonathan said:

    For those who weren't around in 1981:

    As the recession’s grip held firm at the beginning of 1981, unemployment neared 3m, manufacturing capacity fell by fifth, and the lifeblood of the British mining community ebbed away. Discontent was rife, and culminated in urban riots in the summer of that year.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/recession/4323064/UK-recession-in-1980-What-was-it-like.html

    Thatcher was brutal. May is rubbish. Big difference.
    "Thatcher was brutal."

    Was she really, or is that just your politics skewing your perception?
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    I see Jeremy has not lost his skilful touch.

    "Jeremy Corbyn has vowed to slash the salaries of BBC stars such as Gary Lineker and Chris Evans, if Labour wins power." (The Independent)

    Literally, a policy that will be supported by 65.64 million people minus 2 in the UK.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Jonathan said:

    For those who weren't around in 1981:

    As the recession’s grip held firm at the beginning of 1981, unemployment neared 3m, manufacturing capacity fell by fifth, and the lifeblood of the British mining community ebbed away. Discontent was rife, and culminated in urban riots in the summer of that year.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/recession/4323064/UK-recession-in-1980-What-was-it-like.html

    Thatcher was brutal. May is rubbish. Big difference.
    Britain - and its government - were in a much bigger mess in 1981 than we are currently - few expected Thatcher to last. Did you?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084

    Jonathan said:

    For those who weren't around in 1981:

    As the recession’s grip held firm at the beginning of 1981, unemployment neared 3m, manufacturing capacity fell by fifth, and the lifeblood of the British mining community ebbed away. Discontent was rife, and culminated in urban riots in the summer of that year.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/recession/4323064/UK-recession-in-1980-What-was-it-like.html

    Thatcher was brutal. May is rubbish. Big difference.
    "Thatcher was brutal."

    Was she really, or is that just your politics skewing your perception?
    If you read the article I posted that started this discussion, it suggests she treaded softly on policy but was brutal in her reshuffle, during 1981
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    Damian Green comes across as too avuncular. And, I'm sorry to say, ever so slightly doddery.

    It's Hunt for me, although I do think he needs to move from Health first.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    PeterC said:

    IanB2 said:

    Jonathan said:

    May is no Thatcher.

    Neither was Thatcher in 1981.
    May resembles Maggie in 1989 more than the 1981 version. Isolated, paranoid and without any feeling for the public. The worst campaign in history is her poll tax rather than her Falklands.
    Brexit is her poll tax. I don't see a 1980s (Tory) comparison for the campaign!
    The Tories are shocked that the anti-Marxist rhetoric did not gain traction against Corbyn. The prime motivator is to keep Labour out and think tnrough a better strategy. They have five years to do this so why rush? Simply lashing out and changing leader just for the sake of it will only make a GE more likely. What is more it would look criminally irresposible to put the government out of action while they wasted weeks of the fast diminishing Brexit timetable conducting a leadership election.
    And more to the point, it is very clear that there is no potential rival within the Tory party that actually has any better answer as to how to rescue something from the Brexit disaster other than to muddle along without a plan and hope for the best...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019

    Jonathan said:

    For those who weren't around in 1981:

    As the recession’s grip held firm at the beginning of 1981, unemployment neared 3m, manufacturing capacity fell by fifth, and the lifeblood of the British mining community ebbed away. Discontent was rife, and culminated in urban riots in the summer of that year.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/recession/4323064/UK-recession-in-1980-What-was-it-like.html

    Thatcher was brutal. May is rubbish. Big difference.
    "Thatcher was brutal."

    Was she really, or is that just your politics skewing your perception?
    She actually played her politics pretty well from 1979-1986.

    It was after 1987 that she got very cocky, which led to her downfall. Arguably the nascent EU was the catalyst, and the reaction to the poll tax the biggest trigger.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    IanB2 said:

    Jonathan said:

    For those who weren't around in 1981:

    As the recession’s grip held firm at the beginning of 1981, unemployment neared 3m, manufacturing capacity fell by fifth, and the lifeblood of the British mining community ebbed away. Discontent was rife, and culminated in urban riots in the summer of that year.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/recession/4323064/UK-recession-in-1980-What-was-it-like.html

    Thatcher was brutal. May is rubbish. Big difference.
    "Thatcher was brutal."

    Was she really, or is that just your politics skewing your perception?
    If you read the article I posted that started this discussion, it suggests she treaded softly on policy but was brutal in her reshuffle, during 1981
    Gideon' dwindling band of fanboys used to claim May was brutal on assuming office.....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084

    IanB2 said:

    Jonathan said:

    For those who weren't around in 1981:

    As the recession’s grip held firm at the beginning of 1981, unemployment neared 3m, manufacturing capacity fell by fifth, and the lifeblood of the British mining community ebbed away. Discontent was rife, and culminated in urban riots in the summer of that year.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/recession/4323064/UK-recession-in-1980-What-was-it-like.html

    Thatcher was brutal. May is rubbish. Big difference.
    "Thatcher was brutal."

    Was she really, or is that just your politics skewing your perception?
    If you read the article I posted that started this discussion, it suggests she treaded softly on policy but was brutal in her reshuffle, during 1981
    Gideon' dwindling band of fanboys used to claim May was brutal on assuming office.....
    'twas easier back then..
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    IanB2 said:

    Jonathan said:

    For those who weren't around in 1981:

    As the recession’s grip held firm at the beginning of 1981, unemployment neared 3m, manufacturing capacity fell by fifth, and the lifeblood of the British mining community ebbed away. Discontent was rife, and culminated in urban riots in the summer of that year.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/recession/4323064/UK-recession-in-1980-What-was-it-like.html

    Thatcher was brutal. May is rubbish. Big difference.
    "Thatcher was brutal."

    Was she really, or is that just your politics skewing your perception?
    If you read the article I posted that started this discussion, it suggests she treaded softly on policy but was brutal in her reshuffle, during 1981
    Ah, apologies.

    Although going back to Jonathon's comment, the current politician who's rubbish at reshuffles is Corbyn. Hes had several that have lasted ages, so you think he'd be good at them by now. :)
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    Is the silent assassin about to take charge of The Lib Dems? Must be plenty of young contenders voting for the old dope.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    Jonathan said:

    For those who weren't around in 1981:

    As the recession’s grip held firm at the beginning of 1981, unemployment neared 3m, manufacturing capacity fell by fifth, and the lifeblood of the British mining community ebbed away. Discontent was rife, and culminated in urban riots in the summer of that year.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/recession/4323064/UK-recession-in-1980-What-was-it-like.html

    Thatcher was brutal. May is rubbish. Big difference.
    "Thatcher was brutal."

    Was she really, or is that just your politics skewing your perception?
    She actually played her politics pretty well from 1979-1986.

    It was after 1987 that she got very cocky, which led to her downfall. Arguably the nascent EU was the catalyst, and the reaction to the poll tax the biggest trigger.
    "We are a grandmother" set warning bells ringing.....but people writing of Green as "dull & boring" should recall the last Conservative leader that was said of...
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Jonathan said:

    For those who weren't around in 1981:

    As the recession’s grip held firm at the beginning of 1981, unemployment neared 3m, manufacturing capacity fell by fifth, and the lifeblood of the British mining community ebbed away. Discontent was rife, and culminated in urban riots in the summer of that year.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/recession/4323064/UK-recession-in-1980-What-was-it-like.html

    Thatcher was brutal. May is rubbish. Big difference.
    Britain - and its government - were in a much bigger mess in 1981 than we are currently - few expected Thatcher to last. Did you?
    Mrs Thatcher was arguably the luckiest prime minister of the 20th Century, as she was close to being deposed when saved by the Falklands -- even though the invasion was partly her fault (shades of Churchill becoming PM after Chamberlain was toppled by the failed Norway campaign, whose architect was Winston Churchill). Then the opposition split, and she discovered not one but two magic money trees: North Sea Oil and privatisation receipts.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Jonathan said:

    For those who weren't around in 1981:

    As the recession’s grip held firm at the beginning of 1981, unemployment neared 3m, manufacturing capacity fell by fifth, and the lifeblood of the British mining community ebbed away. Discontent was rife, and culminated in urban riots in the summer of that year.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/recession/4323064/UK-recession-in-1980-What-was-it-like.html

    Thatcher was brutal. May is rubbish. Big difference.
    "Thatcher was brutal."

    Was she really, or is that just your politics skewing your perception?
    Love the way you only picked on the brutal comment.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Jonathan said:

    For those who weren't around in 1981:

    As the recession’s grip held firm at the beginning of 1981, unemployment neared 3m, manufacturing capacity fell by fifth, and the lifeblood of the British mining community ebbed away. Discontent was rife, and culminated in urban riots in the summer of that year.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/recession/4323064/UK-recession-in-1980-What-was-it-like.html

    Thatcher was brutal. May is rubbish. Big difference.
    Britain - and its government - were in a much bigger mess in 1981 than we are currently - few expected Thatcher to last. Did you?
    Today's mess is worse, dwarfed only by tomorrow's.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575

    Jonathan said:

    For those who weren't around in 1981:

    As the recession’s grip held firm at the beginning of 1981, unemployment neared 3m, manufacturing capacity fell by fifth, and the lifeblood of the British mining community ebbed away. Discontent was rife, and culminated in urban riots in the summer of that year.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/recession/4323064/UK-recession-in-1980-What-was-it-like.html

    Thatcher was brutal. May is rubbish. Big difference.
    Britain - and its government - were in a much bigger mess in 1981 than we are currently - few expected Thatcher to last. Did you?
    Yes, but the Tories had been in power for two years, and the Labour party not only seen as part of the mess, but also literally split in two.

    There is absolutely no comparison.

    I don't think May is a coward, but unlike Thatcher she is paralysed by the prospect of hard decisions, and usually opts for the wrong solution when she finally gets round to it. And absolutely unlike Thatcher she is now the prisoner of her own cabinet and parliamentary party.

    As for not expecting Thatcher to last, no one thought she would be turfed out before the election, but likely as a result of losing it. Absent the Falklands, it's quite possible (I wouldn't go as far as probable) that the SPD would not have been strangled at birth and a hung parliament resulted.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    IanB2 said:

    Jonathan said:

    For those who weren't around in 1981:

    As the recession’s grip held firm at the beginning of 1981, unemployment neared 3m, manufacturing capacity fell by fifth, and the lifeblood of the British mining community ebbed away. Discontent was rife, and culminated in urban riots in the summer of that year.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/recession/4323064/UK-recession-in-1980-What-was-it-like.html

    Thatcher was brutal. May is rubbish. Big difference.
    "Thatcher was brutal."

    Was she really, or is that just your politics skewing your perception?
    If you read the article I posted that started this discussion, it suggests she treaded softly on policy but was brutal in her reshuffle, during 1981
    Quite.
    Just look at Pym, who replaced the sainted Norman, and was himself summarily dispatched in due course.

    Until she went completely loopy, Thatcher was very shrewd at knowing when to dispatch opponents or perceived failures.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718

    Jonathan said:

    For those who weren't around in 1981:

    As the recession’s grip held firm at the beginning of 1981, unemployment neared 3m, manufacturing capacity fell by fifth, and the lifeblood of the British mining community ebbed away. Discontent was rife, and culminated in urban riots in the summer of that year.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/recession/4323064/UK-recession-in-1980-What-was-it-like.html

    Thatcher was brutal. May is rubbish. Big difference.
    Britain - and its government - were in a much bigger mess in 1981 than we are currently - few expected Thatcher to last. Did you?
    Mrs Thatcher was arguably the luckiest prime minister of the 20th Century, as she was close to being deposed when saved by the Falklands -- even though the invasion was partly her fault (shades of Churchill becoming PM after Chamberlain was toppled by the failed Norway campaign, whose architect was Winston Churchill). Then the opposition split, and she discovered not one but two magic money trees: North Sea Oil and privatisation receipts.
    Quite right. Better to be lucky than smart. Like the comparison with Churchill and Norway, too.

    It’s quite right, too, that the FO was talking to the Argentinians about some sort of shared soveriegnty...... only scupperd when two MP's Peter Shore, Lab and Bernard Braine, Tory,got wind of it, and Galtieri decided on direct action.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Good morning, everyone.

    Probably two big announcements today. The coronation of Cable, and some new Stargate news.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    For those who weren't around in 1981:

    As the recession’s grip held firm at the beginning of 1981, unemployment neared 3m, manufacturing capacity fell by fifth, and the lifeblood of the British mining community ebbed away. Discontent was rife, and culminated in urban riots in the summer of that year.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/recession/4323064/UK-recession-in-1980-What-was-it-like.html

    Thatcher was brutal. May is rubbish. Big difference.
    "Thatcher was brutal."

    Was she really, or is that just your politics skewing your perception?
    Love the way you only picked on the brutal comment.
    I've never been a particular fan of May. When she became PM I said I was waiting to find out what she stood for. I was still waiting after her first conference. The decision to hold a snap GE was admirably brave and, it turns out, stupid.

    It now seems her long period at the Home Office may have had less to do with her own skills, and more to do with Cameron's reluctance to reshuffle.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    Jonathan said:

    For those who weren't around in 1981:

    As the recession’s grip held firm at the beginning of 1981, unemployment neared 3m, manufacturing capacity fell by fifth, and the lifeblood of the British mining community ebbed away. Discontent was rife, and culminated in urban riots in the summer of that year.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/recession/4323064/UK-recession-in-1980-What-was-it-like.html

    Thatcher was brutal. May is rubbish. Big difference.
    "Thatcher was brutal."

    Was she really, or is that just your politics skewing your perception?
    If you read the article I posted that started this discussion, it suggests she treaded softly on policy but was brutal in her reshuffle, during 1981
    Quite.
    Just look at Pym, who replaced the sainted Norman, and was himself summarily dispatched in due course.

    Until she went completely loopy, Thatcher was very shrewd at knowing when to dispatch opponents or perceived failures.
    Apart from being female Tories from modest backgrounds, May and Thatcher have little in common.

    May has much more in common with Brown, someone who schemed for office for years, yet without a real purpose, who mismanaged their previous office, and was beset from the beginning with unrest from colleagues because of an authoritarian style. Both moved first against the people who had previously been their cabinet colleagues.

  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    Tracey Crouch.

    Although Rory or JM are acceptable too.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Good morning, everyone.

    Probably two big announcements today. The coronation of Cable, and some new Stargate news.

    Are these related? One is a reheated fictitious shortcut to another world. The other is great sci-fi.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967

    For those who weren't around in 1981:

    As the recession’s grip held firm at the beginning of 1981, unemployment neared 3m, manufacturing capacity fell by fifth, and the lifeblood of the British mining community ebbed away. Discontent was rife, and culminated in urban riots in the summer of that year.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/recession/4323064/UK-recession-in-1980-What-was-it-like.html

    Actually the mining industry was massively subsidised and protected in the early 1980s and redundancy packages were extremely generous.

    Which led to mountains of coal above ground, three ballots which rejected strike action and a strong performance by the Conservatives in mining areas in the 1983 general election.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    I see that grade inflation has hit the university sector.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    For those who weren't around in 1981:

    As the recession’s grip held firm at the beginning of 1981, unemployment neared 3m, manufacturing capacity fell by fifth, and the lifeblood of the British mining community ebbed away. Discontent was rife, and culminated in urban riots in the summer of that year.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/recession/4323064/UK-recession-in-1980-What-was-it-like.html

    Thatcher was brutal. May is rubbish. Big difference.
    Britain - and its government - were in a much bigger mess in 1981 than we are currently - few expected Thatcher to last. Did you?
    Today's mess is worse, dwarfed only by tomorrow's.
    Worse than 3 million unemployed ? Did you expect Thatcher to last at the time?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    IanB2 said:

    Simon Jenkins - always worth a read - arguing that May can come back like Thatcher after 1981. I don't buy the comparison; the Falklands War uniquely saved Mrs T, she had a big majority, allies, and Brexit is unlikely to turn into any sort of success. But his is an interesting counter-argument:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jul/19/thatcher-theresa-may-fox-lion-survive

    I agree (and hope!) a 'Falklands' is unlikely to occur - but the post GE phase has very much reminded me of 1981 - female PM who was a 'dead woman walking' to borrow a sacked politician's phrase - it was 'only a matter of when, not if' - yet Thatcher was there for nearly another decade......May won't last that long, but ask a Russian owned free-sheet editor if she lacks ruthlessness......
    I don't think May will outlast conference. As well as the worst campaign in history, there is the increasingly shambolic approach to Brexit. I see conference favouring a headbanger in the leadership, as their precious Brexit floundering will agitate the swivel eyed loons.

    Worth noting that it was not the Falklands that saved Maggie (despite this her vote share fell from 1979 to 83), it was the split opposition. While Foot was undermined by a strong SDP/Liberal challenge in votes, Corbyn is sitting pretty, with the equivalent centre party on life support. Cable is a poor choice for leader, but also I cannot see him gaining seats or votes off Labour. What effect he has will mostly be to take votes off the Tories.
    Fox , did not get chance to reply yesterday. %1St Highland division is a great story often missed as Dunkirk gets the glory. Churchill has a lot to answer for not letting them get disembarked , forced them to stay and cost lots of lives for nothing.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    dr_spyn said:

    I see that grade inflation has hit the university sector.

    An inevitable consequence of tuition fees.

    The universities need happy customers.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    Jonathan said:

    For those who weren't around in 1981:

    As the recession’s grip held firm at the beginning of 1981, unemployment neared 3m, manufacturing capacity fell by fifth, and the lifeblood of the British mining community ebbed away. Discontent was rife, and culminated in urban riots in the summer of that year.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/recession/4323064/UK-recession-in-1980-What-was-it-like.html

    Thatcher was brutal. May is rubbish. Big difference.
    "Thatcher was brutal."

    Was she really, or is that just your politics skewing your perception?
    I would have said evil, uncaring and brutal personally.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    F1: halo being used from next year:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/40663158

    Ugly, so I hope they work on alternatives and use those later. Also, decreased peripheral vision may increase accidents, particularly on the first lap. On the plus side, strong and not enclosed, so if you're upside down and your car's on fire you should be ok.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    Jonathan said:

    May is no Thatcher.

    Neither was Thatcher in 1981.
    May resembles Maggie in 1989 more than the 1981 version. Isolated, paranoid and without any feeling for the public. The worst campaign in history is her poll tax rather than her Falklands.
    She really is just an empty suit , waiting to go. Hopefully she gets some backbone and does not just hide as she is doing now for next 4-5 years.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Jonathan, some say Lib Dems worship the false god EU.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    dr_spyn said:

    I see that grade inflation has hit the university sector.

    Indeed, though as with schools, it might not just be the exams getting easier: there have long been reports that many of today's students have a much tighter focus on exams, rather than sitting under trees reading all day and getting hammered in the student union bar at night. A look at any academic bookshop will find shelves full of "how to study" guides. Maybe paying £9,000 a year concentrates the mind.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279

    dr_spyn said:

    I see that grade inflation has hit the university sector.

    An inevitable consequence of tuition fees.

    The universities need happy customers.
    BBC Coverage.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-40654933
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Good morning, everyone.

    Probably two big announcements today. The coronation of Cable, and some new Stargate news.

    Any idea what time the Stargate news is due, please? I'm interested in that.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    Jonathan said:

    For those who weren't around in 1981:

    As the recession’s grip held firm at the beginning of 1981, unemployment neared 3m, manufacturing capacity fell by fifth, and the lifeblood of the British mining community ebbed away. Discontent was rife, and culminated in urban riots in the summer of that year.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/recession/4323064/UK-recession-in-1980-What-was-it-like.html

    Thatcher was brutal. May is rubbish. Big difference.
    "Thatcher was brutal."

    Was she really, or is that just your politics skewing your perception?
    She actually played her politics pretty well from 1979-1986.

    It was after 1987 that she got very cocky, which led to her downfall. Arguably the nascent EU was the catalyst, and the reaction to the poll tax the biggest trigger.
    "We are a grandmother" set warning bells ringing.....but people writing of Green as "dull & boring" should recall the last Conservative leader that was said of...
    Which Oxford college were you at? I assume you knew JohnO who was at Balliol during the same period.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    malcolmg said:

    Jonathan said:

    For those who weren't around in 1981:

    As the recession’s grip held firm at the beginning of 1981, unemployment neared 3m, manufacturing capacity fell by fifth, and the lifeblood of the British mining community ebbed away. Discontent was rife, and culminated in urban riots in the summer of that year.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/recession/4323064/UK-recession-in-1980-What-was-it-like.html

    Thatcher was brutal. May is rubbish. Big difference.
    "Thatcher was brutal."

    Was she really, or is that just your politics skewing your perception?
    I would have said evil, uncaring and brutal personally.
    Yes, but we were talking about Thatcher, not you. ;)
  • TonyETonyE Posts: 938

    F1: halo being used from next year:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/40663158

    Ugly, so I hope they work on alternatives and use those later. Also, decreased peripheral vision may increase accidents, particularly on the first lap. On the plus side, strong and not enclosed, so if you're upside down and your car's on fire you should be ok.

    Always thought this was a daft idea. Wouldn't have saved Bianchi, Surtees wasn't in F1, and Massa's spring might have been deflected into the soft tissue and through the ribcage - probably causing instant death. Might have saved Senna I suppose, but then again so would wheel tethers, and why was this not implemented correctly on Surtees' F2 car?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. M, it's from San Diego so I'd guess late evening our time. I did a quick Twitter search and the only interesting thing I found was that, contrary to what I heard yesterday, it might be on Friday (with a panel today). So, we'll see. Sorry that's not more helpful.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. E, would it not have saved Bianchi? I thought his car's nose was beneath the crane/rescue vehicle and his helmet/head struck the body of the rescue vehicle.

    I'm not a halo fan either, incidentally.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575

    malcolmg said:

    Jonathan said:

    For those who weren't around in 1981:

    As the recession’s grip held firm at the beginning of 1981, unemployment neared 3m, manufacturing capacity fell by fifth, and the lifeblood of the British mining community ebbed away. Discontent was rife, and culminated in urban riots in the summer of that year.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/recession/4323064/UK-recession-in-1980-What-was-it-like.html

    Thatcher was brutal. May is rubbish. Big difference.
    "Thatcher was brutal."

    Was she really, or is that just your politics skewing your perception?
    I would have said evil, uncaring and brutal personally.
    Yes, but we were talking about Thatcher, not you. ;)
    But malcolm clearly cares.
    As for the other epithets...
    :smile:
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    Just listened to Damien Green on Radio Scotland, got destroyed by Gary Robertson over the course of the interview. Deeply unimpressed. Firstly, in that he wasn't warned that Robertson has a reputation for eating waffling politicians for breakfast, or secondly, he just didn't believe that he would be so effectively chewed up by a provincial beeb interviewer.

    For the record, most Scottish politicians avoid going on Good Morning Scotland, unless they are desperate or well rehearsed.
  • Jonathan said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Probably two big announcements today. The coronation of Cable, and some new Stargate news.

    Are these related? One is a reheated fictitious shortcut to another world. The other is great sci-fi.
    Post of the day
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107
    Well done MS, tipping something at 70/1, win or lose I like that.

    I'm bored of people on here patting themselves on the back AFTER their bet has won without telling anybody beforehand. I've been a punter for 40 years, some on here it seems have never placed a losing bet, they're bullshitters.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Choose, if you want to see a lot of losing bets you can always (re-)read my 2016 F1 articles ;)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    edited July 2017
    GeoffM said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Probably two big announcements today. The coronation of Cable, and some new Stargate news.

    Any idea what time the Stargate news is due, please? I'm interested in that.
    6pm to 7pm San Diego time, so 2am-3am BST.

    You should be able to find a live stream of it.
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107
    I'm developing a grudging admiration for Mrs May, she made a total pig's ear of the election and everybody expected her to go immediately. But she's dug her heels in and hung on, others (I'm looking at you Cameron) took the easy option. Let's face it, for many reasons this is a torrid time to be PM.

    She might surprise a few people.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Eagles, ah, that explains the Thursday/Friday confusion.

    Wish I'd backed Green at 70. I'm on at something like 30, but there we are.

    Button was 71 for the 2009 title, you know. I may have mentioned this previously.

    [Still annoyed at the Force India crash in Azerbaijan. Was otherwise on for a 201 winner].
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Mr. M, it's from San Diego so I'd guess late evening our time. I did a quick Twitter search and the only interesting thing I found was that, contrary to what I heard yesterday, it might be on Friday (with a panel today). So, we'll see. Sorry that's not more helpful.

    Thank you very much. I've just done a similar exercise and it seems to be today 6-7pm local time in the Marriott Marquis, San Diego.

    Unfortunately the site I found that on has some links to sci-fi cosplay galleries. In the spirit of scientific research I will briefly be unavailable for further comment.
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107

    Mr. Choose, if you want to see a lot of losing bets you can always (re-)read my 2016 F1 articles ;)

    Haha!

    We must be the only two on here that have ever placed a losing bet. I'm sorry but I refuse to believe anybody on here made money at the GE. I reduced my losses by laying UKIP where I could but I don't remember a single poster predicting anything but a comfy tory win.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    edited July 2017
    Having followed Mike's advice on Green I have to say some of Green's recent antics have left me distinctly unimpressed, he's turning into a May sycophant.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Having followed Mike's advice on Green I have to say some of Green's recent antics have left me distinctly unimpressed, he's turning into a May sycophant.

    Is that not why he has his new position?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545
    Objectively, Thatcher was never that popular. She was lucky in the first part of her government to face a divided opposition. Labour started to get its act together. Thatcher was eventually deposed because her own party thought she would lose them their next election.

    May faces a Labour party that polls at least as well as her own.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Mr. Choose, if you want to see a lot of losing bets you can always (re-)read my 2016 F1 articles ;)

    Haha!

    We must be the only two on here that have ever placed a losing bet. I'm sorry but I refuse to believe anybody on here made money at the GE. I reduced my losses by laying UKIP where I could but I don't remember a single poster predicting anything but a comfy tory win.
    I made reasonable money on the GE ... with targeted bets. I was the one, for example, who tipped on PB the SCon seats over/under with WH which made a few people some decent money. I avoided the spreads and I avoided seat prediction bets, and as a result I came out ahead.

    Readers of Mr Dancer's excellent blog will know that when I get the time I post my tips (and justifications) in advance and I also post my results. My F1 wins and losses are fully documented race by race.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    Scott_P said:

    Having followed Mike's advice on Green I have to say some of Green's recent antics have left me distinctly unimpressed, he's turning into a May sycophant.

    Is that not why he has his new position?
    That's my fear, May's last two sycophants, the gruesome twosome, nearly destroyed the Tory party.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    GeoffM said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Probably two big announcements today. The coronation of Cable, and some new Stargate news.

    Any idea what time the Stargate news is due, please? I'm interested in that.
    6pm to 7pm San Diego time, so 2am-3am BST.

    You should be able to find a live stream of it.
    Cheers; appreciated, and yes I've tracked down a live feed.

    They've already started a project for a film and canned it, so it's more likely to be a new series ... I hope!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    Mr. Choose, if you want to see a lot of losing bets you can always (re-)read my 2016 F1 articles ;)

    Haha!

    We must be the only two on here that have ever placed a losing bet. I'm sorry but I refuse to believe anybody on here made money at the GE. I reduced my losses by laying UKIP where I could but I don't remember a single poster predicting anything but a comfy tory win.
    I backed NOM and Lab OM and if I trawl through the posts, I think I might have said so before the date, but actually can't remember.
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107
    GeoffM said:

    Mr. Choose, if you want to see a lot of losing bets you can always (re-)read my 2016 F1 articles ;)

    Haha!

    We must be the only two on here that have ever placed a losing bet. I'm sorry but I refuse to believe anybody on here made money at the GE. I reduced my losses by laying UKIP where I could but I don't remember a single poster predicting anything but a comfy tory win.
    I made reasonable money on the GE ... with targeted bets. I was the one, for example, who tipped on PB the SCon seats over/under with WH which made a few people some decent money. I avoided the spreads and I avoided seat prediction bets, and as a result I came out ahead.

    Readers of Mr Dancer's excellent blog will know that when I get the time I post my tips (and justifications) in advance and I also post my results. My F1 wins and losses are fully documented race by race.
    In which case I apologise if you stated your bets beforehand. To regular punters aftertimers are nothing but a nuisance.
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107

    Scott_P said:

    Having followed Mike's advice on Green I have to say some of Green's recent antics have left me distinctly unimpressed, he's turning into a May sycophant.

    Is that not why he has his new position?
    That's my fear, May's last two sycophants, the gruesome twosome, nearly destroyed the Tory party.
    Cameron and Osborne?
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019

    GeoffM said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Probably two big announcements today. The coronation of Cable, and some new Stargate news.

    Any idea what time the Stargate news is due, please? I'm interested in that.
    6pm to 7pm San Diego time, so 2am-3am BST.

    You should be able to find a live stream of it.
    Even more interesting is an announcement about a film of Ready Player One with Spielberg as director
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969

    Scott_P said:

    Having followed Mike's advice on Green I have to say some of Green's recent antics have left me distinctly unimpressed, he's turning into a May sycophant.

    Is that not why he has his new position?
    That's my fear, May's last two sycophants, the gruesome twosome, nearly destroyed the Tory party.
    Cameron and Osborne?
    You really are tedious.

    Cameron and Osborne took the Tory party from 198 MPs to 331 MPs, Mrs May and her team made a net seat loss, against Jeremy Corbyn. JEREMY CORBYN FFS!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Choose, I got lucky with the General Election. Many of my bets were on the Lib Dems doing poorly and the Scottish Conservatives doing well. I did reckon the blues would get 350-400 seats and lost many English constituency bets but these were outweighed by Scottish and Lib Dem green results.

    Indeed, Mr. M's betting thoughts are another excellent reason to visit my enormo-haddock.blogspot.com blog. Well, that and the splendid graphs.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    LDs to choose Montgomery Burns to lead them
  • TonyETonyE Posts: 938
    edited July 2017

    Mr. E, would it not have saved Bianchi? I thought his car's nose was beneath the crane/rescue vehicle and his helmet/head struck the body of the rescue vehicle.

    I'm not a halo fan either, incidentally.

    No, the suddenness of the deceleration would probably have done the damage (though I suppose you can never be entirely certain) - halo doesn't extend above the roll cage, so the deceleration would probably have occurred in exactly the same way as the roll cage impacted the recovery vehicle. Also, with that impact, would Halo have even remained in tact?

    The real cause of the Bianchi accident was his own poor judgement in admittedly awful conditions, coupled with the poor judgement of Race Control in not red flagging the race, and the poor provision of recovery vehicles which should have had either barrier protection or should have been longer reach to recover from behind the barrier (as in many other locations).
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    Blue_rog said:

    GeoffM said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Probably two big announcements today. The coronation of Cable, and some new Stargate news.

    Any idea what time the Stargate news is due, please? I'm interested in that.
    6pm to 7pm San Diego time, so 2am-3am BST.

    You should be able to find a live stream of it.
    Even more interesting is an announcement about a film of Ready Player One with Spielberg as director
    I'm really intrigued by this show.

    David Benioff and DB Weiss, the creators of HBO’s Game of Thrones, are bringing a new series to the network that will offer an alternative take on the American civil war.

    Confederate, depicting the events leading up to a third conflict between the north and south, will be written by the showrunners and take place in an alternative timeline in which the southern states have successfully seceded, “giving rise to a nation in which slavery remains legal and has evolved into a modern institution”.

    A statement released by HBO read: “The story follows a broad swath of characters on both sides of the Mason-Dixon Demilitarized Zone – freedom fighters, slave hunters, politicians, abolitionists, journalists, the executives of a slave-holding conglomerate and the families of people in their thrall.”

    Production on the new series will begin after the final season of Game of Thrones.

    https://theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2017/jul/19/confederate-hbo-civil-war-drama-game-of-thrones-creators
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,225
    edited July 2017

    Mr. Choose, if you want to see a lot of losing bets you can always (re-)read my 2016 F1 articles ;)

    Haha!

    We must be the only two on here that have ever placed a losing bet. I'm sorry but I refuse to believe anybody on here made money at the GE. I reduced my losses by laying UKIP where I could but I don't remember a single poster predicting anything but a comfy tory win.
    I made about £1.5k. Since it was almost all on buying Labour Seats I could show you my SPIN account if you like, although I'd like to think you'd trust me not to lie.

    For balance, I should add that I lost £4k on the 2015 GE. That was much more complicated, as well as more painful, but I could send you some spreadsheets on which the disaster was recorded.

    PS I think OGH also won on the spreads. He's not a Holy Friar either, so ask him.
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107

    Scott_P said:

    Having followed Mike's advice on Green I have to say some of Green's recent antics have left me distinctly unimpressed, he's turning into a May sycophant.

    Is that not why he has his new position?
    That's my fear, May's last two sycophants, the gruesome twosome, nearly destroyed the Tory party.
    Cameron and Osborne?
    You really are tedious.

    Cameron and Osborne took the Tory party from 198 MPs to 331 MPs, Mrs May and her team made a net seat loss, against Jeremy Corbyn. JEREMY CORBYN FFS!
    2015 tory votes 11.3

    2017 tory votes 13.6

    And you call me tedious!

    Your childlike sycophancy is embarrassing mate, outside of your echo chamber Osborne is held in contempt.
This discussion has been closed.