If Lynton Crosby can get a Tory elected as Mayor in a Labour city such as London, especially at the time it was in the aftermath of the 2012 budget and UK entering a double dip recession, then who knows what he may achieve in 2015.
Calling London a "Labour City" is an insult to those parts of the capital that voted Tory!
Major UK supermarkets have announced a round of petrol price cuts from Tuesday.
Asda kicked off the cuts with a reduction of up to 2 pence a litre, followed by other supermarkets including Sainsbury's and Morrisons.
Falls in wholesale prices and a more favourable exchange rate are behind the cuts, the AA motoring group said.
Supermarkets reduced pump prices in March, and last week cut about 2 pence a litre off diesel.
AA president Edmund King said: "We predicted these cuts last week, with oil down to its lowest level in a month and the pound gaining on the dollar after its recent fall.
In this context it is just the age that State Pension becomes payable. While officially that has nothing to do with retirement as time goes on I think we'll find that many people need to wait until State Pension Age to be able to afford to retire.
I think the key phrase is "afford to retire". Working people in secure jobs earning good money can live very well - nice cars, foreign holidays, all the gadgets etc, etc. Even a well-funded retirement would represent a change in that lifestyle not that I imagine many would despair at ending the daily commute.
The other thing is that people are taking on big financial burdens (mortgages) later in life which means they need to work longer to pay off those obligations. Together with getting the children (or grandchildren) through University, there remain large financial burdens on some people into their sixties.
The necessity (rather than the desire in many cases) of continuing to work is defined by those ongoing financial constraints. I would argue that the pensions issue is less about when people can retire (and take a pension) as when people can retire (because they are financially and culturally ready and able to do so).
I'm guest editing Tues-Thurs, if Mike doesn't do a thread on this, then I'll do a thread on this.
Tory backbenchers probably thought that when they ganged together to thwart attempts to make the Lords mostly elected last year, they had got rid of what they saw as a “constitutional threat” for the foreseeable future.
But conversations I have had in recent days with senior Liberal Democrats suggest there is a scenario under which the plans could be resurrected.
Officials close to Nick Clegg have told me that if there was a hung parliament at the next election and a deal with the Conservatives was the most likely outcome, this would give them an opening to insist that the plans were put back on the table.
If Lynton Crosby can get a Tory elected as Mayor in a Labour city such as London, especially at the time it was in the aftermath of the 2012 budget and UK entering a double dip recession, then who knows what he may achieve in 2015.
Calling London a "Labour City" is an insult to those parts of the capital that voted Tory!
*Innocent Face*
Oooh - finger point. You'll get a writ served against you if you're not careful :-)
"Voting technology now persuades Westminster parties that they can target the swing voters in the swing seats: the golden 4 per cent that can decide British elections. They think they know the names, addresses and concerns of this group – so the system almost obliges Westminster parties to shape their whole politics around this tiny sliver of the electorate. This leaves a great many people feeling, correctly, that they have been abandoned. "
As you know, I've been VERY pessimistic about Conservative fortunes in 2015, but I'm beginning to have second thoughts.
We have to remember that we're looking at the nexy election through the prisim of the government being virtually at it's mid term nadir while Labour is still a blank sheet of paper.
The agitation is the Blairites over the weekend suggests to me they are very concerned about how far left Ed Miliband may be planning to move the Labour Party.
We'll have to wait and see what policies Ed Miliband comes up with, but should he push too far left we may well find those LD>Lab 2010 switchers are suddenly up for grabs, as may the Con>Lab 2010 switchers.
I'm guest editing Tues-Thurs, if Mike doesn't do a thread on this, then I'll do a thread on this.
Tory backbenchers probably thought that when they ganged together to thwart attempts to make the Lords mostly elected last year, they had got rid of what they saw as a “constitutional threat” for the foreseeable future.
But conversations I have had in recent days with senior Liberal Democrats suggest there is a scenario under which the plans could be resurrected.
Officials close to Nick Clegg have told me that if there was a hung parliament at the next election and a deal with the Conservatives was the most likely outcome, this would give them an opening to insist that the plans were put back on the table.
They're dreaming. There's no hope of Tory backbenchers ever agreeing to give Clegg reform of the lords. Indeed I very much doubt Tory backbenchers would agree to another coalition with the LDs at all under any circumstances. A Lib-Lab coalition might look at HoL reform, but even then I doubt it would get far - history tells us that since 1945 progress on this has only been made in the context of an overwehlming Labour majority in the Commons.
@Tim: "Obviously you aren't going to want 66 year old nurses and paramedics."
Agree that your suggestion that they man helplines makes sense. I also think that a 66-year old nurse could do something useful in the community e.g. helping with feeding older people in their homes or even in hospital and other less physically demanding aspects of the job. There is no reason why we could not use their skills in a way which is worthwhile both for the nurse and patients.
In this context it is just the age that State Pension becomes payable. While officially that has nothing to do with retirement as time goes on I think we'll find that many people need to wait until State Pension Age to be able to afford to retire.
)
Thanks Neil. I deduced it by the fact people like Brian Paddick basically retired when they were still in high school
Here it is different as the state manages the main retirement scheme for everybody (employers and employees pay contributions are paid to the National Insurance Institute; overall 33% of the pre tax salary; 2/3 put by the employer and 1/3 by the employee). So you basically get just 1 pension (apart from private schemes which are still minor) all included.
O/T And forgive me if this sounds a bit zerohedge, but with the recent price falls is https://www.bullionvault.com a good way to buy gold ? Make take a punt on an oz or so..
"... this would give them an opening to insist that the plans were put back on the table."
They could put the plans back on the table, but they will not be able to get them through Parliament, not in a coalition with the Conservatives. Single fifteen year terms (i.e. no democratic accountability), big salaries and pensions for party placemen, I suppose Labour might go for it they seem quite keen on ill thought-out constitutional change.
Obviously you aren't going to want 66 year old nurses and paramedics. But they are the people who should be running NHS direct three day a week each on the phone or on Skype.
Obviously you aren't going to want 66 year old nurses and paramedics. But they are the people who should be running NHS direct three day a week each on the phone or on Skype.
that would be an example yes. But there's plenty others (and certainly a lot of 'unskilled' jobs where that wouldn't work).
The only HoL reform that makes sense is to abolish it - and let England have its own parliament.
Hopefully there'll be a referendum on the future of the House of Lords, preferably conducted under AV.
With the following options?
Yes, Reform No, Don't reform
That is the sort of AV choice I like to see.
No, the options should be
A) Leave the House of Lords as it is
Enact the Lib Dem reforms
C) Bring back the Hereditaries
D) Rename the House of Lords as the Senate, and abolish the House of Commons and make The Prime Minister, Dictator, with the resultant powers of Dictator.
As you know, I've been VERY pessimistic about Conservative fortunes in 2015, but I'm beginning to have second thoughts.
We have to remember that we're looking at the nexy election through the prisim of the government being virtually at it's mid term nadir while Labour is still a blank sheet of paper.
The agitation is the Blairites over the weekend suggests to me they are very concerned about how far left Ed Miliband may be planning to move the Labour Party.
We'll have to wait and see what policies Ed Miliband comes up with, but should he push too far left we may well find those LD>Lab 2010 switchers are suddenly up for grabs, as may the Con>Lab 2010 switchers.
Indeed, historically, we are near the nadir for incoming Conservative Governments after a long period of Labour rule. This is February 1982 or Autumn 1973 if you like.
May's elections won't be pleasant for the Conservatives or the LDs I would expect but it would be the height of folly to extrapolate them forward to a GE.
Labour need to win 74 seats to get a majority - I think perversely that's easier than the twenty the Conservatives need for their majority.
The question for the Conservatives is how many of their 300 or so seats are going to be defensible from Labour or from UKIP tactical voting allowing Labour in.
The problem is 37% won't be good enough if Labour are at that level as well.
Is this a wise move? The ethnic minority vote is likely to be crucial in GE 2015 and this kind of talk will only perpetuate the toxicity of the Tories within ethnic minority communities. I guess the calculation that has to be made by Tory HQ that that gains will be made elsewhere in the electorate - i.e. WWC and UKIP waverers.
You never know, the price for House of Lords reform could be a referendum on the EU.
I doubt it very much - I just think the visceral hatred for the LDs at all levels of the Tory party below the Cabinet, makes another coalition impossible on almost any terms. And a second coalition with what seems very likely to be a more rightwing Tory party would be something the LDs would need to think very carefully about - could they really maintain their claim to be an independent third force if they keep the Tories in power for a decade?
The only HoL reform that makes sense is to abolish it - and let England have its own parliament.
Hopefully there'll be a referendum on the future of the House of Lords, preferably conducted under AV.
With the following options?
Yes, Reform No, Don't reform
That is the sort of AV choice I like to see.
No, the options should be
A) Leave the House of Lords as it is
Enact the Lib Dem reforms
C) Bring back the Hereditaries
D) Rename the House of Lords as the Senate, and abolish the House of Commons and make The Prime Minister, Dictator, with the resultant powers of Dictator.
You never know, the price for House of Lords reform could be a referendum on the EU.
I doubt it very much - I just think the visceral hatred for the LDs at all levels of the Tory party below the Cabinet, makes another coalition impossible on almost any terms. And a second coalition with what seems very likely to be a more rightwing Tory party would be something the LDs would need to think very carefully about - could they really maintain their claim to be an independent third force if they keep the Tories in power for a decade?
I think pragmatism will rule the day for both sides.
O/T And forgive me if this sounds a bit zerohedge, but with the recent price falls is https://www.bullionvault.com a good way to buy gold ? Make take a punt on an oz or so..
No it is not. If you want to punt on the gold price use an Exchange Traded Fund or a spread bet, depending on how long you expect to hold the position. (Spread bet is best for short periods). You don't want to physically own the stuff , unless you're expecting the imminent end of civilisation, in which case theoretically owning it in a vault in Zurich is hardly going to help anyway.
May I ask a question about the pb yearly competition?
Mario Monti remains Italian prime minister, albeit on a caretaker basis. Indeed, it is entirely conceivable that he will remain so until after another general election. At what point, if ever, does he get scored as a winner in relation to the question "who will become Prime Minister following the election?"
I ask as someone who put Mario Monti as my answer. (I will of course score hopelessly as usual in the local election results).
He's 100% right. If a team wanted to screw a driver they wouldn't do it by completely ruining his qualifying and then his race. For a start, it's too overt, and it stops them getting as many points. Red Bull want the double (yet again). If Webber never scores again this season they won't get it.
However, the very fact that some actually believe the problems Webber had in China were due to his team breaking his cricket bat before sending him to the crease is indicative of the extent to which the team is considered untrustworthy and Horner himself has been undermined by recent events.
He's 100% right. If a team wanted to screw a driver they wouldn't do it by completely ruining his qualifying and then his race. For a start, it's too overt, and it stops them getting as many points. Red Bull want the double (yet again). If Webber never scores again this season they won't get it.
However, the very fact that some actually believe the problems Webber had in China were due to his team breaking his cricket bat before sending him to the crease is indicative of the extent to which the team is considered untrustworthy and Horner himself has been undermined by recent events.
Don't forget the part Toro Rosso's driver had on Webber this weekend.
May I ask a question about the pb yearly competition?
Mario Monti remains Italian prime minister, albeit on a caretaker basis. Indeed, it is entirely conceivable that he will remain so until after another general election. At what point, if ever, does he get scored as a winner in relation to the question "who will become Prime Minister following the election?"
I ask as someone who put Mario Monti as my answer. (I will of course score hopelessly as usual in the local election results).
I think Double Carpet is the man to ask on that.
Hopefully Silvio will be asked to form a government soon.
"A directly elected Dictator, as voted for by the Plebs."
Not sure I care for the term dictator but a directly elected PM who could appoint anyone he or she fancies to ministerial posts (all answerable to but not members of Parliament) has a lot to recommend it.
Mind you, my preference would be to return to a proper monarchy with an advisory parliament - democracy, especially with a universal franchise, ends in failure and a disguised slavery for the majority.
"A directly elected Dictator, as voted for by the Plebs."
Not sure I care for the term dictator but a directly elected PM who could appoint anyone he or she fancies to ministerial posts (all answerable to but not members of Parliament) has a lot to recommend it.
Mind you, my preference would be to return to a proper monarchy with an advisory parliament - democracy, especially with a universal franchise, ends in failure and a disguised slavery for the majority.
Ok, if you're not happy with the title of Dictator, how about calling them "Kaiser" or "Caesar", in honour of the greatest general and statesman ever have lived.
He's 100% right. If a team wanted to screw a driver they wouldn't do it by completely ruining his qualifying and then his race.
Didn't conspiracy theorists used to point to Damon Hill's mysterious engine problems that only appeared when his senior team-mate Prost was in contention?
You might as well have three decemvirs, or a patrician tribune!
A patrician? Like Lord Vetinari in Ankh-Morpork? The chap who restructured the idea of one man one vote to him being the man and had the vote, I'd go for that.
Mr. Llama, I must confess that I've only ever read three Discworld books and will have to take your word upon the constitutional arrangements thereof.
Incidentally, a German economist reckons that either the soft south countries or Germany should leave the eurozone: www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/apr/14/german-economist-eurozone-eu
"A directly elected Dictator, as voted for by the Plebs."
Not sure I care for the term dictator but a directly elected PM who could appoint anyone he or she fancies to ministerial posts (all answerable to but not members of Parliament) has a lot to recommend it.
Mind you, my preference would be to return to a proper monarchy with an advisory parliament - democracy, especially with a universal franchise, ends in failure and a disguised slavery for the majority.
Ok, if you're not happy with the title of Dictator, how about calling them "Kaiser" or "Caesar", in honour of the greatest general and statesman ever have lived.
Arf, but you are very naughty to try and wind up Mr. Dancer. Anyway I think he has come up with the best title, "Patrician". I am not sure what one would call a lady elected to the post though, Matriarch doesn't strike the right note.
"A directly elected Dictator, as voted for by the Plebs."
Not sure I care for the term dictator but a directly elected PM who could appoint anyone he or she fancies to ministerial posts (all answerable to but not members of Parliament) has a lot to recommend it.
Mind you, my preference would be to return to a proper monarchy with an advisory parliament - democracy, especially with a universal franchise, ends in failure and a disguised slavery for the majority.
Ok, if you're not happy with the title of Dictator, how about calling them "Kaiser" or "Caesar", in honour of the greatest general and statesman ever have lived.
Arf, but you are very naughty to try and wind up Mr. Dancer. Anyway I think he has come up with the best title, "Patrician". I am not sure what one would call a lady elected to the post though, Matriarch doesn't strike the right note.
"A directly elected Dictator, as voted for by the Plebs."
Not sure I care for the term dictator but a directly elected PM who could appoint anyone he or she fancies to ministerial posts (all answerable to but not members of Parliament) has a lot to recommend it.
Mind you, my preference would be to return to a proper monarchy with an advisory parliament - democracy, especially with a universal franchise, ends in failure and a disguised slavery for the majority.
Ok, if you're not happy with the title of Dictator, how about calling them "Kaiser" or "Caesar", in honour of the greatest general and statesman ever have lived.
"A directly elected Dictator, as voted for by the Plebs."
Not sure I care for the term dictator but a directly elected PM who could appoint anyone he or she fancies to ministerial posts (all answerable to but not members of Parliament) has a lot to recommend it.
Mind you, my preference would be to return to a proper monarchy with an advisory parliament - democracy, especially with a universal franchise, ends in failure and a disguised slavery for the majority.
Ok, if you're not happy with the title of Dictator, how about calling them "Kaiser" or "Caesar", in honour of the greatest general and statesman ever have lived.
Arf, but you are very naughty to try and wind up Mr. Dancer. Anyway I think he has come up with the best title, "Patrician". I am not sure what one would call a lady elected to the post though, Matriarch doesn't strike the right note.
How about Domina for a female?
You don't think that Domina might just be a tad too close to Dominatrix for most fellows? Actually, thinking of your post the other day about a preference for large rosettes, you probably don't.
As you know, I've been VERY pessimistic about Conservative fortunes in 2015, but I'm beginning to have second thoughts.
We have to remember that we're looking at the nexy election through the prisim of the government being virtually at it's mid term nadir while Labour is still a blank sheet of paper.
The agitation is the Blairites over the weekend suggests to me they are very concerned about how far left Ed Miliband may be planning to move the Labour Party.
We'll have to wait and see what policies Ed Miliband comes up with, but should he push too far left we may well find those LD>Lab 2010 switchers are suddenly up for grabs, as may the Con>Lab 2010 switchers.
Indeed, historically, we are near the nadir for incoming Conservative Governments after a long period of Labour rule. This is February 1982 or Autumn 1973 if you like.
May's elections won't be pleasant for the Conservatives or the LDs I would expect but it would be the height of folly to extrapolate them forward to a GE.
Labour need to win 74 seats to get a majority - I think perversely that's easier than the twenty the Conservatives need for their majority.
The question for the Conservatives is how many of their 300 or so seats are going to be defensible from Labour or from UKIP tactical voting allowing Labour in.
The problem is 37% won't be good enough if Labour are at that level as well.
At this stage, I'd expect the next election result to be similar to February or October 1974.
"A directly elected Dictator, as voted for by the Plebs."
Not sure I care for the term dictator but a directly elected PM who could appoint anyone he or she fancies to ministerial posts (all answerable to but not members of Parliament) has a lot to recommend it.
Mind you, my preference would be to return to a proper monarchy with an advisory parliament - democracy, especially with a universal franchise, ends in failure and a disguised slavery for the majority.
Ok, if you're not happy with the title of Dictator, how about calling them "Kaiser" or "Caesar", in honour of the greatest general and statesman ever have lived.
Arf, but you are very naughty to try and wind up Mr. Dancer. Anyway I think he has come up with the best title, "Patrician". I am not sure what one would call a lady elected to the post though, Matriarch doesn't strike the right note.
How about Domina for a female?
You don't think that Domina might just be a tad too close to Dominatrix for most fellows? Actually, thinking of your post the other day about a preference for large rosettes, you probably don't.
I've never understand why men spend money on Dominatrices.
If I wanted to give my money to a woman who'd be abusive towards me and sexually frustrate me all the time, I'd spend more time with my wife.
"A directly elected Dictator, as voted for by the Plebs."
Not sure I care for the term dictator but a directly elected PM who could appoint anyone he or she fancies to ministerial posts (all answerable to but not members of Parliament) has a lot to recommend it.
Mind you, my preference would be to return to a proper monarchy with an advisory parliament - democracy, especially with a universal franchise, ends in failure and a disguised slavery for the majority.
Ok, if you're not happy with the title of Dictator, how about calling them "Kaiser" or "Caesar", in honour of the greatest general and statesman ever have lived.
That's alright, Mr. F., because Hannibal was never a great statesman never mind the greatest and as a general he would have made a good corps commander as long as he had a competent chap above him that could see the big picture and take care of strategy. In short, as has been noted on here many, many times, Hannibal was a loser.
"A directly elected Dictator, as voted for by the Plebs."
Not sure I care for the term dictator but a directly elected PM who could appoint anyone he or she fancies to ministerial posts (all answerable to but not members of Parliament) has a lot to recommend it.
Mind you, my preference would be to return to a proper monarchy with an advisory parliament - democracy, especially with a universal franchise, ends in failure and a disguised slavery for the majority.
Ok, if you're not happy with the title of Dictator, how about calling them "Kaiser" or "Caesar", in honour of the greatest general and statesman ever have lived.
Arf, but you are very naughty to try and wind up Mr. Dancer. Anyway I think he has come up with the best title, "Patrician". I am not sure what one would call a lady elected to the post though, Matriarch doesn't strike the right note.
How about Domina for a female?
You don't think that Domina might just be a tad too close to Dominatrix for most fellows? Actually, thinking of your post the other day about a preference for large rosettes, you probably don't.
I've never understand why men spend money on Dominatrices.
If I wanted to give my money to a woman who'd be abusive towards me and sexually frustrate me all the time, I'd spend more time with my wife.
Strangely enough, if I wanted that I'd spend more time with your wife as well... ;-)
It's intriguing to see that the Blairites are so past it that they've lost all concept of the grid.
In any other week, having half a dozen former Cabinet ministers, including a former Prime Minister, issue barely coded warnings about the direction of the Labour party would have been sensational. This week, no one has noticed.
Minimum wage goes up to £6.31 per hour from October. That is equivalent to £13,124 pa for a 40 hour week. Unfortunately that is above the personal allowance tax threshold (£10,000 from April 2014) but they could be eligible for WTC depending on personal circumstances
Con: -350 (500 loss is ott) Lab: +500 (200 gain is low ball)
UKIP - challenge is even spread of votes & converting votes into seats
I think 500 + is too high for Labour. Rallings and Thrasher think UKIP will win 40-50 seats.
In fairness I think Curtice said Labour could be looking at "up to" 500 gains to provide contrast to Labour's own low-balled 200.
As I have mentioned before , there are a number of councils with ( in some cases ) major boundary changes and around 50 fewer seats overall . On past experience the BBC will not give seat changes for these counties and simply state " boundary changes " . It will therefore be open to the parties to spin the results rather more than they usually can .
In vague terms, what's the Lib Dem aim? Stand still, minimise losses or gain a few?
I personally expect losses to Labour which will not quite be matched by gains from the Conservatives , perhaps 50 fewer councillors elected . To illustrate simply the spin possibilities . Somerset now has 3 fewer councillors , my calculations show that 2 would be Conservative and 1 Lib Dem , but in addition Glastonbury and Street wards are combined into a 2 member division . In 2009 the Lib Dems won 1 and Conservatives won the other . The combined result was so close that it is unclear as to who would have won the 2 seats in a 2 member seat but if say the Lib Dems won both seats this year , the Conservatives could argue they had lost none and the Lib Dems that they had gained both . Vice Versa would also apply .
You never know, the price for House of Lords reform could be a referendum on the EU.
I doubt it very much - I just think the visceral hatred for the LDs at all levels of the Tory party below the Cabinet, makes another coalition impossible on almost any terms. And a second coalition with what seems very likely to be a more rightwing Tory party would be something the LDs would need to think very carefully about - could they really maintain their claim to be an independent third force if they keep the Tories in power for a decade?
I don't profess to know that many Conservatives but I find the term "visceral hatred" a hard one to get my head around. Yes, there are Conservatives who were opposed to the Coalition from the very start and presumably wanted Cameron to form a minority Government and in my view they should be venting that frustration on him rather than the Liberal Democrats.
There are, I suspect, a number of Conservatives for whom the Coalition Experience hasn't been quite as they imagined - if they seriously thought the LDs would pliantly accept every nuance of Conservative policy as though there was a Tory majority Government, that's astonishing. The inadequate Coalition Agreement was never a fully agreed programme of Government for a five-year period - it was at best some bullet points and some high-level thinking notably on deficit reduction.
The problem, I fear, is that there has been no real meeting of minds beyond the minority of liberal conservatives in the Conservative Party and the minority of conservative liberals in the Liberal Democrats. The philosophical convergence for which I had hoped has turned out to be a chimera and the divergence has re-asserted with a vengeance with conservatism and liberalism seemingly set on very different roads.
"How can consumers ensure they are receiving the best possible deal for their energy bills? In this special View from 22 podcast, the Spectator’s political editor James Forsyth discusses issues within in the energy market and some potential solutions for getting the lowest possible energy bills. Is shale gas the answer? Do green subsidies need to be cut? And is the government doing enough to help the consumer?"
"Sir Chris will rue the day he decided to deny Eck a medal next summer prior to the Indy vote."
Come off it, ex-Harry, if Sir Chris had actually won a medal in Glasgow, you'd have been telling us that was "yet another disaster for the SNP", because of the man's well known Brit-Nattery.
By the way, it's hilarious that you guys still think that Salmond's "rue the day" comment was some kind of gaffe, even after all this time. Nothing like a bit of reassuring PB Tory groupthink on a Monday.
President Nicos Anastasiades said the government is planning to offer citizenship to foreign depositors who lost more than €3m in the haircut that formed part of the bailout deal.
"The CON effort is likely to focus on Ed Miliband personally to try to raise doubts over his suitability to enter Downing Street. If they can chip away at this then perhaps that might work but perhaps it won’t."
That is, after all, why they chose Crosby. They saw the Boris win and wanted some of that. The Boris campaign wasn't really about dog whistling (though there was some in there) it was a full on anti-Ken assault.
Worth remembering that it was done primarily through the "Not Ken again" vehicle Crosby created to try and keep the most full on attacks at arms length from Boris. That just isn't a runner for the GE. Everyone will know what Crosby is up to no matter how hard they try to keep Cameron away from the attack dog tactics.
Also worth remembering that Boris was way more popular than Cammie is while Ken was seen as pretty much a spent force and singularly failed to impress during that campaign. Yet even despite that the final result was a good deal closer than many thought it would be.
They are unlikely to run another dog-whistle campaign like Crosby did for Howard since they probably remember that Howard lost. The strategy just now seems to be some dog whistling to try and tempt the tory/UKIP switchers back while hoping that the GE will see the Kippers melt away. That smacks of complacency (and it clearly isn't working) so it likely won't just be little Ed that Crosby decides to go for but also Farage.
The question is when. Time is running out and all those tory councillors will not be particularly happy to be counted as expendable, nor will many tory MPs in marginal seats. Particularly those who are up against the lib dems.
@stodge I doubt that there was any real expectation of a meeting of minds between the Cons and the LDs in coalition. It was a practical, pragmatic arrangement for a 5 year term to allow a relatively stable government to tackle the problems of the deficit, to avoid spooking the markets.
It was a practical, pragmatic arrangement for a 5 year term to allow a relatively stable government to tackle the problems of the deficit, to avoid spooking the markets.
The current government is not attempting to tackle the budget deficit. They raised taxes, but they refuse to cut government spending.
Comments
Asda kicked off the cuts with a reduction of up to 2 pence a litre, followed by other supermarkets including Sainsbury's and Morrisons.
Falls in wholesale prices and a more favourable exchange rate are behind the cuts, the AA motoring group said.
Supermarkets reduced pump prices in March, and last week cut about 2 pence a litre off diesel.
AA president Edmund King said: "We predicted these cuts last week, with oil down to its lowest level in a month and the pound gaining on the dollar after its recent fall.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22153003
This does not factor in today's fall of Brent Crude by just under $2.
The other thing is that people are taking on big financial burdens (mortgages) later in life which means they need to work longer to pay off those obligations. Together with getting the children (or grandchildren) through University, there remain large financial burdens on some people into their sixties.
The necessity (rather than the desire in many cases) of continuing to work is defined by those ongoing financial constraints. I would argue that the pensions issue is less about when people can retire (and take a pension) as when people can retire (because they are financially and culturally ready and able to do so).
All those conservatives who bought Gold!
EDIT
You can increase democratic accountability under FPTP by loosening (central) party control over candidate selection.
Link below to a Douglas Carswell interview on the subject.
http://youtu.be/6SD3M5aMYzU
We have to remember that we're looking at the nexy election through the prisim of the government being virtually at it's mid term nadir while Labour is still a blank sheet of paper.
The agitation is the Blairites over the weekend suggests to me they are very concerned about how far left Ed Miliband may be planning to move the Labour Party.
We'll have to wait and see what policies Ed Miliband comes up with, but should he push too far left we may well find those LD>Lab 2010 switchers are suddenly up for grabs, as may the Con>Lab 2010 switchers.
@anothernick
You never know, the price for House of Lords reform could be a referendum on the EU.
Agree that your suggestion that they man helplines makes sense. I also think that a 66-year old nurse could do something useful in the community e.g. helping with feeding older people in their homes or even in hospital and other less physically demanding aspects of the job. There is no reason why we could not use their skills in a way which is worthwhile both for the nurse and patients.
Here it is different as the state manages the main retirement scheme for everybody (employers and employees pay contributions are paid to the National Insurance Institute; overall 33% of the pre tax salary; 2/3 put by the employer and 1/3 by the employee). So you basically get just 1 pension (apart from private schemes which are still minor) all included.
They could put the plans back on the table, but they will not be able to get them through Parliament, not in a coalition with the Conservatives. Single fifteen year terms (i.e. no democratic accountability), big salaries and pensions for party placemen, I suppose Labour might go for it they seem quite keen on ill thought-out constitutional change.
Yes, Reform
No, Don't reform
That is the sort of AV choice I like to see.
I moved house 18 months ago. In doing so part of the consideration was buying somewhere in an area I could afford to live in.
Why should benefits claimants expect taxpayers to remove this obstacle which the rest of us have to face?
A) Leave the House of Lords as it is
C) Bring back the Hereditaries
D) Rename the House of Lords as the Senate, and abolish the House of Commons and make The Prime Minister, Dictator, with the resultant powers of Dictator.
Con: -350 (500 loss is ott)
Lab: +500 (200 gain is low ball)
UKIP - challenge is even spread of votes & converting votes into seats
How dare you suggest the ethnic cleansing of the poor from rich areas?
I think that is how the arguments go, unless there is a more emotionally charged way of doing it so that rational debate is stifled.
May's elections won't be pleasant for the Conservatives or the LDs I would expect but it would be the height of folly to extrapolate them forward to a GE.
Labour need to win 74 seats to get a majority - I think perversely that's easier than the twenty the Conservatives need for their majority.
The question for the Conservatives is how many of their 300 or so seats are going to be defensible from Labour or from UKIP tactical voting allowing Labour in.
The problem is 37% won't be good enough if Labour are at that level as well.
A great shame if we cannot use the skills of experienced people, especially when there is such need.
Is this a wise move? The ethnic minority vote is likely to be crucial in GE 2015 and this kind of talk will only perpetuate the toxicity of the Tories within ethnic minority communities. I guess the calculation that has to be made by Tory HQ that that gains will be made elsewhere in the electorate - i.e. WWC and UKIP waverers.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-22135109
Tough choice between C) and D)
The office of dictator was *not* elected. It was appointed by the Senate for a duration of one year during emergencies.
It'd be interesting if we had two consuls rather than one PM. However, Senator is too republican a title. Unless we also made the monarch an Empress.
A directly elected Dictator, as voted for by the Plebs.
Mario Monti remains Italian prime minister, albeit on a caretaker basis. Indeed, it is entirely conceivable that he will remain so until after another general election. At what point, if ever, does he get scored as a winner in relation to the question "who will become Prime Minister following the election?"
I ask as someone who put Mario Monti as my answer. (I will of course score hopelessly as usual in the local election results).
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula-one/22152924
He's 100% right. If a team wanted to screw a driver they wouldn't do it by completely ruining his qualifying and then his race. For a start, it's too overt, and it stops them getting as many points. Red Bull want the double (yet again). If Webber never scores again this season they won't get it.
However, the very fact that some actually believe the problems Webber had in China were due to his team breaking his cricket bat before sending him to the crease is indicative of the extent to which the team is considered untrustworthy and Horner himself has been undermined by recent events.
James Cook @BBCJamesCook 6m
Sir Chris Hoy is expected to announcement his retirement from international cycling on Thursday, BBC Sport has been told.
Hopefully Silvio will be asked to form a government soon.
You might as well have three decemvirs, or a patrician tribune!
https://twitter.com/Michael_Heaver/status/323726573318578176
Not sure I care for the term dictator but a directly elected PM who could appoint anyone he or she fancies to ministerial posts (all answerable to but not members of Parliament) has a lot to recommend it.
Mind you, my preference would be to return to a proper monarchy with an advisory parliament - democracy, especially with a universal franchise, ends in failure and a disguised slavery for the majority.
http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/monarchy-in-modern-world.html
*Because it was before my time.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/04/tax-transparency-cameron-says-relax/
Incidentally, a German economist reckons that either the soft south countries or Germany should leave the eurozone:
www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/apr/14/german-economist-eurozone-eu
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/323767936512835585
https://twitter.com/robbyyy/status/323727011531083776
If I wanted to give my money to a woman who'd be abusive towards me and sexually frustrate me all the time, I'd spend more time with my wife.
Look forward to all senior managers of publicly funded bodies doing the same,including whether they are paid via PAYE or service companies.
In any other week, having half a dozen former Cabinet ministers, including a former Prime Minister, issue barely coded warnings about the direction of the Labour party would have been sensational. This week, no one has noticed.
That is due to come out next week,
http://www.guardian.co.uk/artanddesign/interactive/2013/feb/01/view-from-top-shard-london-interactive
This lizard people are catching up with Jim Corr, how safe is Viscount Monkton's pile?!
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/acc-bank-pursues-jim-corr-over-outstanding-loan-1.1360820
Nominations for those to be hung upside down in the scorpion pit...
In vague terms, what's the Lib Dem aim? Stand still, minimise losses or gain a few?
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505263_162-57579551/abortion-doctor-kermit-gosnell-murder-case-sparks-political-firestorm/
To illustrate simply the spin possibilities . Somerset now has 3 fewer councillors , my calculations show that 2 would be Conservative and 1 Lib Dem , but in addition Glastonbury and Street wards are combined into a 2 member division . In 2009 the Lib Dems won 1 and Conservatives won the other . The combined result was so close that it is unclear as to who would have won the 2 seats in a 2 member seat but if say the Lib Dems won both seats this year , the Conservatives could argue they had lost none and the Lib Dems that they had gained both . Vice Versa would also apply .
There are, I suspect, a number of Conservatives for whom the Coalition Experience hasn't been quite as they imagined - if they seriously thought the LDs would pliantly accept every nuance of Conservative policy as though there was a Tory majority Government, that's astonishing. The inadequate Coalition Agreement was never a fully agreed programme of Government for a five-year period - it was at best some bullet points and some high-level thinking notably on deficit reduction.
The problem, I fear, is that there has been no real meeting of minds beyond the minority of liberal conservatives in the Conservative Party and the minority of conservative liberals in the Liberal Democrats. The philosophical convergence for which I had hoped has turned out to be a chimera and the divergence has re-asserted with a vengeance with conservatism and liberalism seemingly set on very different roads.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/04/the-view-from-22-special-fuel-wars-how-to-get-the-best-deal-for-the-consumers/
Come off it, ex-Harry, if Sir Chris had actually won a medal in Glasgow, you'd have been telling us that was "yet another disaster for the SNP", because of the man's well known Brit-Nattery.
By the way, it's hilarious that you guys still think that Salmond's "rue the day" comment was some kind of gaffe, even after all this time. Nothing like a bit of reassuring PB Tory groupthink on a Monday.
President Nicos Anastasiades said the government is planning to offer citizenship to foreign depositors who lost more than €3m in the haircut that formed part of the bailout deal.
Well that's alright then.
The Boris campaign wasn't really about dog whistling (though there was some in there) it was a full on anti-Ken assault.
Worth remembering that it was done primarily through the "Not Ken again" vehicle Crosby created to try and keep the most full on attacks at arms length from Boris. That just isn't a runner for the GE. Everyone will know what Crosby is up to no matter how hard they try to keep Cameron away from the attack dog tactics.
Also worth remembering that Boris was way more popular than Cammie is while Ken was seen as pretty much a spent force and singularly failed to impress during that campaign.
Yet even despite that the final result was a good deal closer than many thought it would be.
They are unlikely to run another dog-whistle campaign like Crosby did for Howard since they probably remember that Howard lost. The strategy just now seems to be some dog whistling to try and tempt the tory/UKIP switchers back while hoping that the GE will see the Kippers melt away. That smacks of complacency (and it clearly isn't working) so it likely won't just be little Ed that Crosby decides to go for but also Farage.
The question is when. Time is running out and all those tory councillors will not be particularly happy to be counted as expendable, nor will many tory MPs in marginal seats. Particularly those who are up against the lib dems.
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/331505/austerity-uk-edition-part-2-veronique-de-rugy