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  • felix said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Sean_F said:

    It seems Catalonia's government will declare independence on Monday.

    Then what?

    Then nothing. Any declaration would have the same force in law as the 'referendum'. There remains a majority in the region which wants to stay with Spain.
    Says who and with what evidence? If that were the case then hold a centrally-authorised referendum to show so.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    Sean_F said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Sean_F said:

    It seems Catalonia's government will declare independence on Monday.

    Then what?

    I expect the Spanish government will impose direct rule.
    How tenable is that in the medium/long term?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    felix said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Sean_F said:

    It seems Catalonia's government will declare independence on Monday.

    Then what?

    Then nothing. Any declaration would have the same force in law as the 'referendum'. There remains a majority in the region which wants to stay with Spain.
    Says who and with what evidence? If that were the case then hold a centrally-authorised referendum to show so.
    All the recent polling gives a majority against separation.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan_independence = see the table at the end.

    The w/e referendum was illegal. Maybe you should write to the Spanish government telling them what to do. I'm sure they'd be all ears.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Cyclefree said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Sean_F said:

    It seems Catalonia's government will declare independence on Monday.

    Then what?

    I expect the Spanish government will impose direct rule.
    How tenable is that in the medium/long term?
    Catalonia has almost no violent nationalist tradition, so they probably feel it will be acceptable. They could offer some concessions to non-Catalan residents (eg Spanish-medium education), but that would stir things up even more.

    I imagine it will be a steady as she goes policy, with another election in 6 months.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,192
    Commiserations from a former rival for the Maidenhead seat

    I should point out that a muffled voice is not always a barrier to success. #cpc17 #TheresaMay

    — Lord Buckethead (@LordBuckethead) October 4, 2017
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,756
    felix said:

    MTimT said:

    I am genuinely intrigued by Rajoy's and the King's position on Catalonia. I presume they are both smart enough to understand that:

    1. democracy and self-determination are very much flip sides of the same coin. The difference is simply a matter of scale.
    2. democracy without some form of protection of minorities is not democracy but tyranny of the masses
    3. regardless of constitutional law, preventing legitimate, non-violent expression of popular feelings, particularly when it represents a plurality or a majority of feeling within a particular well-defined geographical and cultural region, creates a pressure-cooker build up of steam which, unless carefully let off, inevitably will lead to violent explosion at some future point
    4. masked armoured men dressed all in black hitting women, children and the elderly with rubber batons, pulling them by the hair and kicking them, while not in the class of violence of really nasty authoritarian regimes, simply cannot play in Western society.

    I understand that they may believe that the stakes are high enough and the chance of beating the separatists into submission good enough that they think this approach is winnable.

    But is that who they truly want to be? Do they truly believe that democracy can only mean upholding, by force if necessary, a Constitution that expressly prohibits some forms of democratic expression that would otherwise seem perfectly legitimate?

    Or are thus just simply cynical and incompetent politicians?

    Genuine question, asked from a position of both ignorance of and indifference to the Catalonia/Spain issue.

    All the polling evidence is that there is not a majority in Catalonia for UDI.
    There wasn't a majority in South Carolina for secession in 1861 either. Or in Ireland in 1916. Sometimes a minority that seizes a propitious moment can get away with things like this.

    And yes I think civil war in Spain is a realistic possibility we should consider.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    RoyalBlue said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Sean_F said:

    It seems Catalonia's government will declare independence on Monday.

    Then what?

    I expect the Spanish government will impose direct rule.
    How tenable is that in the medium/long term?
    Catalonia has almost no violent nationalist tradition, so they probably feel it will be acceptable. They could offer some concessions to non-Catalan residents (eg Spanish-medium education), but that would stir things up even more.

    I imagine it will be a steady as she goes policy, with another election in 6 months.
    There may be elections earlier but overall you are probably correct.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    edited October 2017
    There is a statement from Puigdemont but BBC report is still at the headline stage. Some translated tweets imply some sort of call for mediation.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    felix said:

    felix said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Sean_F said:

    It seems Catalonia's government will declare independence on Monday.

    Then what?

    Then nothing. Any declaration would have the same force in law as the 'referendum'. There remains a majority in the region which wants to stay with Spain.
    Says who and with what evidence? If that were the case then hold a centrally-authorised referendum to show so.
    All the recent polling gives a majority against separation.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan_independence = see the table at the end.

    The w/e referendum was illegal. Maybe you should write to the Spanish government telling them what to do. I'm sure they'd be all ears.
    Both governments are acting to inflame the situation.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,756
    Sean_F said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Sean_F said:

    It seems Catalonia's government will declare independence on Monday.

    Then what?

    Then nothing. Any declaration would have the same force in law as the 'referendum'. There remains a majority in the region which wants to stay with Spain.
    Says who and with what evidence? If that were the case then hold a centrally-authorised referendum to show so.
    All the recent polling gives a majority against separation.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan_independence = see the table at the end.

    The w/e referendum was illegal. Maybe you should write to the Spanish government telling them what to do. I'm sure they'd be all ears.
    Both governments are acting to inflame the situation.
    A logical decision by the Catalan government. They want people to hate the Spanish government.

    As for Rajoy, he can thank Theresa May for the fact that so far his actions have not been the greatest unforced error in politics since Chamberlain declared 'peace in our time.'
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307

    Before:

    Is it me, or is that wording on the wall behind speakers at the Tory conference wonky?
    image

    After:
    image

    Oops:
    image

    For what it's worth, if May falls, I am going to claim my small part in her downfall...

    After my post about the wonky Tory conference sign, someone obviously took notice and aligned things up properly. Unfortunately, they came up against a fundamental law of nature: blu-tack only sticks reliably the first time.
    I think it would be pretty obvious that the thing was falling apart to anyone there, also the people fixing it up between speakers.

    Someone is in trouble.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,756
    felix said:

    felix said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Sean_F said:

    It seems Catalonia's government will declare independence on Monday.

    Then what?

    Then nothing. Any declaration would have the same force in law as the 'referendum'. There remains a majority in the region which wants to stay with Spain.
    Says who and with what evidence? If that were the case then hold a centrally-authorised referendum to show so.
    All the recent polling gives a majority against separation.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan_independence = see the table at the end.

    The w/e referendum was illegal. Maybe you should write to the Spanish government telling them what to do. I'm sure they'd be all ears.
    It's not what they should do. Let's face it, this isn't an easy situation for them.

    However, there are some things they should definitely not do, and setting riot police on a bunch of elderly ladies is among them.
  • felix said:

    felix said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Sean_F said:

    It seems Catalonia's government will declare independence on Monday.

    Then what?

    Then nothing. Any declaration would have the same force in law as the 'referendum'. There remains a majority in the region which wants to stay with Spain.
    Says who and with what evidence? If that were the case then hold a centrally-authorised referendum to show so.
    All the recent polling gives a majority against separation.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan_independence = see the table at the end.

    The w/e referendum was illegal. Maybe you should write to the Spanish government telling them what to do. I'm sure they'd be all ears.
    The table at the end being the table that ends in 2013?

    Try looking at the more recent polls.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Sean_F said:

    It seems Catalonia's government will declare independence on Monday.

    Then what?

    Then nothing. Any declaration would have the same force in law as the 'referendum'. There remains a majority in the region which wants to stay with Spain.
    Says who and with what evidence? If that were the case then hold a centrally-authorised referendum to show so.
    All the recent polling gives a majority against separation.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan_independence = see the table at the end.

    The w/e referendum was illegal. Maybe you should write to the Spanish government telling them what to do. I'm sure they'd be all ears.
    Both governments are acting to inflame the situation.
    A logical decision by the Catalan government. They want people to hate the Spanish government.

    As for Rajoy, he can thank Theresa May for the fact that so far his actions have not been the greatest unforced error in politics since Chamberlain declared 'peace in our time.'
    The potential loss of Catalonia would be far more catastrophic than the loss of 13 seats.
  • nielh said:

    Before:

    Is it me, or is that wording on the wall behind speakers at the Tory conference wonky?
    image

    After:
    image

    Oops:
    image

    For what it's worth, if May falls, I am going to claim my small part in her downfall...

    After my post about the wonky Tory conference sign, someone obviously took notice and aligned things up properly. Unfortunately, they came up against a fundamental law of nature: blu-tack only sticks reliably the first time.
    I think it would be pretty obvious that the thing was falling apart to anyone there, also the people fixing it up between speakers.

    Someone is in trouble.
    5 seconds with a caulk gun and some No More Nails, and it would have been fixed. Utterly shambolic. They then expect us to accept it when they say only they can run the country.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,756
    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Sean_F said:

    It seems Catalonia's government will declare independence on Monday.

    Then what?

    Then nothing. Any declaration would have the same force in law as the 'referendum'. There remains a majority in the region which wants to stay with Spain.
    Says who and with what evidence? If that were the case then hold a centrally-authorised referendum to show so.
    All the recent polling gives a majority against separation.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan_independence = see the table at the end.

    The w/e referendum was illegal. Maybe you should write to the Spanish government telling them what to do. I'm sure they'd be all ears.
    Both governments are acting to inflame the situation.
    A logical decision by the Catalan government. They want people to hate the Spanish government.

    As for Rajoy, he can thank Theresa May for the fact that so far his actions have not been the greatest unforced error in politics since Chamberlain declared 'peace in our time.'
    The potential loss of Catalonia would be far more catastrophic than the loss of 13 seats.
    However, at least Rajoy had the law on his side.

    Moreover, he wasn't up against Corbyn. A net loss of one seat to Corbyn is a disaster.
  • So hands up anybody who had a worse day than Kim Jong May?
  • felix said:

    felix said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Sean_F said:

    It seems Catalonia's government will declare independence on Monday.

    Then what?

    Then nothing. Any declaration would have the same force in law as the 'referendum'. There remains a majority in the region which wants to stay with Spain.
    Says who and with what evidence? If that were the case then hold a centrally-authorised referendum to show so.
    All the recent polling gives a majority against separation.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan_independence = see the table at the end.

    The w/e referendum was illegal. Maybe you should write to the Spanish government telling them what to do. I'm sure they'd be all ears.
    Then Madrid should hold a legal referendum. What are they afraid of? Losing?
  • Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Sean_F said:

    It seems Catalonia's government will declare independence on Monday.

    Then what?

    Then nothing. Any declaration would have the same force in law as the 'referendum'. There remains a majority in the region which wants to stay with Spain.
    Says who and with what evidence? If that were the case then hold a centrally-authorised referendum to show so.
    All the recent polling gives a majority against separation.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan_independence = see the table at the end.

    The w/e referendum was illegal. Maybe you should write to the Spanish government telling them what to do. I'm sure they'd be all ears.
    Both governments are acting to inflame the situation.
    A logical decision by the Catalan government. They want people to hate the Spanish government.

    As for Rajoy, he can thank Theresa May for the fact that so far his actions have not been the greatest unforced error in politics since Chamberlain declared 'peace in our time.'
    The potential loss of Catalonia would be far more catastrophic than the loss of 13 seats.
    Spain already lost Catalonia once - to Napoleon c.1810.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Sean_F said:

    It seems Catalonia's government will declare independence on Monday.

    Then what?

    Then nothing. Any declaration would have the same force in law as the 'referendum'. There remains a majority in the region which wants to stay with Spain.
    Says who and with what evidence? If that were the case then hold a centrally-authorised referendum to show so.
    All the recent polling gives a majority against separation.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan_independence = see the table at the end.

    The w/e referendum was illegal. Maybe you should write to the Spanish government telling them what to do. I'm sure they'd be all ears.
    Then Madrid should hold a legal referendum. What are they afraid of? Losing?
    Now is not the time !
  • So hands up anybody who had a worse day than Kim Jong May?

    The prison officer who has to wipe Abu Hamza’s arse?
  • ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Sean_F said:

    It seems Catalonia's government will declare independence on Monday.

    Then what?

    Then nothing. Any declaration would have the same force in law as the 'referendum'. There remains a majority in the region which wants to stay with Spain.
    Says who and with what evidence? If that were the case then hold a centrally-authorised referendum to show so.
    All the recent polling gives a majority against separation.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan_independence = see the table at the end.

    The w/e referendum was illegal. Maybe you should write to the Spanish government telling them what to do. I'm sure they'd be all ears.
    Both governments are acting to inflame the situation.
    A logical decision by the Catalan government. They want people to hate the Spanish government.

    As for Rajoy, he can thank Theresa May for the fact that so far his actions have not been the greatest unforced error in politics since Chamberlain declared 'peace in our time.'
    The potential loss of Catalonia would be far more catastrophic than the loss of 13 seats.
    However, at least Rajoy had the law on his side.

    Moreover, he wasn't up against Corbyn. A net loss of one seat to Corbyn is a disaster.
    The law said that old ladies should be dragged by their hair by armed riot Police for trying to vote?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,002
    edited October 2017

    So hands up anybody who had a worse day than Kim Jong May?

    The survivors of the Las Vegas massacre
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    So hands up anybody who had a worse day than Kim Jong May?

    The prison officer who has to wipe Abu Hamza’s arse?
    Talk about drawing the short straw.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,756

    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Sean_F said:

    It seems Catalonia's government will declare independence on Monday.

    Then what?

    Then nothing. Any declaration would have the same force in law as the 'referendum'. There remains a majority in the region which wants to stay with Spain.
    Says who and with what evidence? If that were the case then hold a centrally-authorised referendum to show so.
    All the recent polling gives a majority against separation.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan_independence = see the table at the end.

    The w/e referendum was illegal. Maybe you should write to the Spanish government telling them what to do. I'm sure they'd be all ears.
    Both governments are acting to inflame the situation.
    A logical decision by the Catalan government. They want people to hate the Spanish government.

    As for Rajoy, he can thank Theresa May for the fact that so far his actions have not been the greatest unforced error in politics since Chamberlain declared 'peace in our time.'
    The potential loss of Catalonia would be far more catastrophic than the loss of 13 seats.
    However, at least Rajoy had the law on his side.

    Moreover, he wasn't up against Corbyn. A net loss of one seat to Corbyn is a disaster.
    The law said that old ladies should be dragged by their hair by armed riot Police for trying to vote?
    Well, the law said the vote should not go ahead. But then to quote the otherwise less than able Mr Bumble: 'the law is a ass - a idiot, and the worst I could hope for the law is this sir - that its eyes may be opened by experience.'

    And I am genuinely worried that may be about to happen.
  • Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Sean_F said:

    It seems Catalonia's government will declare independence on Monday.

    Then what?

    Then nothing. Any declaration would have the same force in law as the 'referendum'. There remains a majority in the region which wants to stay with Spain.
    Says who and with what evidence? If that were the case then hold a centrally-authorised referendum to show so.
    All the recent polling gives a majority against separation.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan_independence = see the table at the end.

    The w/e referendum was illegal. Maybe you should write to the Spanish government telling them what to do. I'm sure they'd be all ears.
    Both governments are acting to inflame the situation.
    A logical decision by the Catalan government. They want people to hate the Spanish government.

    As for Rajoy, he can thank Theresa May for the fact that so far his actions have not been the greatest unforced error in politics since Chamberlain declared 'peace in our time.'
    The potential loss of Catalonia would be far more catastrophic than the loss of 13 seats.
    Spain already lost Catalonia once - to Napoleon c.1810.
    More than once, I think. French protectorate 1640 to 1651. Roussillon has never been recovered.
  • One for our Spanish experts, what has happened to Basque nationalism, that, via ETA, used to be the one to worry about?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Been out all day. Missed much?

    I spent most of today wishing Theresa May had lost her seat in 2015 instead of Mark Reckless.
    Surely that's crossing the line.
    I reckon TPD winning his seat in 2015 would have caused less damage for the Tory party than Mrs May did today.
    Cameron winning a majority by massacring his coalition partner and promising a referendum damaged the Tory party.

    Just imagine a nice minority with C&S from nice Mr Clegg facing the even nicer Mr Milliband.
    The issue of our relationship with the EU was coming, it just happened on Cameron's watch.

    This could have all been avoided if Blair and Brown had delivered on their promise of a referendum on Lisbon.
    They were much cleverer than both Cameron and May. Anyway Euroscepticism started with Major and Maastricht.
    Nope, it started with Benn in the 1970s.
    1962. Hugh Gaitskill. Joining the EEC "would be the end of 1,000 years of history".

    http://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/classic-podium-the-end-of-1000-years-of-history-1190761.html
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Sean_F said:

    It seems Catalonia's government will declare independence on Monday.

    Then what?

    Then nothing. Any declaration would have the same force in law as the 'referendum'. There remains a majority in the region which wants to stay with Spain.
    Says who and with what evidence? If that were the case then hold a centrally-authorised referendum to show so.
    All the recent polling gives a majority against separation.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan_independence = see the table at the end.

    The w/e referendum was illegal. Maybe you should write to the Spanish government telling them what to do. I'm sure they'd be all ears.
    Both governments are acting to inflame the situation.
    A logical decision by the Catalan government. They want people to hate the Spanish government.

    As for Rajoy, he can thank Theresa May for the fact that so far his actions have not been the greatest unforced error in politics since Chamberlain declared 'peace in our time.'
    The potential loss of Catalonia would be far more catastrophic than the loss of 13 seats.
    However, at least Rajoy had the law on his side.

    Moreover, he wasn't up against Corbyn. A net loss of one seat to Corbyn is a disaster.
    The law said that old ladies should be dragged by their hair by armed riot Police for trying to vote?
    Well, the law said the vote should not go ahead. But then to quote the otherwise less than able Mr Bumble: 'the law is a ass - a idiot, and the worst I could hope for the law is this sir - that its eyes may be opened by experience.'

    And I am genuinely worried that may be about to happen.
    Saying the vote should not go ahead is one thing.

    One answer is to ignore it, call for a boycott by your own side then dismiss the outcome as illegal and point to the low turnout (caused by the boycott).

    A good answer is not to beat up elderly voters, drag women by their hair and shoot rubber bullets at people. The law didn't demand any of that.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "That poor woman. That poor, poor woman. No matter how many black cats her chauffeur ran over on the journey to the conference centre, she did not deserve anything like this. No one deserves anything like this. Short of accidentally knocking over her lectern, and watching it topple on to an Army veteran in the front row, there is no way, simply no way at all, in which the Prime Minister’s speech could have gone any more wrong.

    And none of it was her fault. If anything, that made it all the more painful."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/10/04/dear-god-will-reliving-agony-theresa-may-speech-rest-days/
  • So hands up anybody who had a worse day than Kim Jong May?

    The survivors of the Las Vegas massacre
    I was trying to keep it light....but you are right.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Sean_F said:

    It seems Catalonia's government will declare independence on Monday.

    Then what?

    Then nothing. Any declaration would have the same force in law as the 'referendum'. There remains a majority in the region which wants to stay with Spain.
    Says who and with what evidence? If that were the case then hold a centrally-authorised referendum to show so.
    All the recent polling gives a majority against separation.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan_independence = see the table at the end.

    The w/e referendum was illegal. Maybe you should write to the Spanish government telling them what to do. I'm sure they'd be all ears.
    The table at the end being the table that ends in 2013?

    Try looking at the more recent polls.
    There was at least one private poll commissioned by a hedge fund earlier this year, which showed that only a very small proportion of Catalonians wanted a UDI - something like 15%. There were another 25% who felt Catalonia should legally seek independence. And then about 10% who though that Catalonia should use a referendum to gain more powers from the Spanish state.

    What was amazing, though, was that there was something like 40% of the Catalonian population that was vehemently opposed to independence in any form.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,756

    Saying the vote should not go ahead is one thing.

    One answer is to ignore it, call for a boycott by your own side then dismiss the outcome as illegal and point to the low turnout (caused by the boycott).

    A good answer is not to beat up elderly voters, drag women by their hair and shoot rubber bullets at people. The law didn't demand any of that.

    Yes, I agree. That's why I said it was an error. A stupid, grotesque unnecessary and totally counterproductive error that may tear Spain apart.

    However, the narrow point that it was under the circumstances slightly less of an unforced error than calling an unneeded general election and blowing a huge lead in the polls over a tenth rate nutcase like Corbyn. While it may be worse overall, it wasn't totally unforced.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771
    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Sean_F said:

    It seems Catalonia's government will declare independence on Monday.

    Then what?

    Then nothing. Any declaration would have the same force in law as the 'referendum'. There remains a majority in the region which wants to stay with Spain.
    Says who and with what evidence? If that were the case then hold a centrally-authorised referendum to show so.
    All the recent polling gives a majority against separation.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan_independence = see the table at the end.

    The w/e referendum was illegal. Maybe you should write to the Spanish government telling them what to do. I'm sure they'd be all ears.
    Both governments are acting to inflame the situation.
    A logical decision by the Catalan government. They want people to hate the Spanish government.

    As for Rajoy, he can thank Theresa May for the fact that so far his actions have not been the greatest unforced error in politics since Chamberlain declared 'peace in our time.'
    The potential loss of Catalonia would be far more catastrophic than the loss of 13 seats.
    Isn't it the "actual" rather than the "potential" loss.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    nielh said:

    Before:

    Is it me, or is that wording on the wall behind speakers at the Tory conference wonky?
    image

    After:
    image

    Oops:
    image

    For what it's worth, if May falls, I am going to claim my small part in her downfall...

    After my post about the wonky Tory conference sign, someone obviously took notice and aligned things up properly. Unfortunately, they came up against a fundamental law of nature: blu-tack only sticks reliably the first time.
    I think it would be pretty obvious that the thing was falling apart to anyone there, also the people fixing it up between speakers.

    Someone is in trouble.
    Tories don't pay workers well. You pay peanuts, you get ..........
  • calum said:
    This is complete and utter bollocks.

    Aides blamed her loss of voice on themselves, for having put them PM through 28 different TV interviews and 19 receptions during the previous four days.

    That's the sort of schedule a PM/Major Party leader is expected to do during conference season.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    ydoethur said:

    Saying the vote should not go ahead is one thing.

    One answer is to ignore it, call for a boycott by your own side then dismiss the outcome as illegal and point to the low turnout (caused by the boycott).

    A good answer is not to beat up elderly voters, drag women by their hair and shoot rubber bullets at people. The law didn't demand any of that.

    Yes, I agree. That's why I said it was an error. A stupid, grotesque unnecessary and totally counterproductive error that may tear Spain apart.

    However, the narrow point that it was under the circumstances slightly less of an unforced error than calling an unneeded general election and blowing a huge lead in the polls over a tenth rate nutcase like Corbyn. While it may be worse overall, it wasn't totally unforced.
    Are you sure May blew a huge lead in the polls? I doubt it was real in the first place
  • I'm calling it a night, I don't think I'm going to be able to cope with the front pages.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,756
    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    Saying the vote should not go ahead is one thing.

    One answer is to ignore it, call for a boycott by your own side then dismiss the outcome as illegal and point to the low turnout (caused by the boycott).

    A good answer is not to beat up elderly voters, drag women by their hair and shoot rubber bullets at people. The law didn't demand any of that.

    Yes, I agree. That's why I said it was an error. A stupid, grotesque unnecessary and totally counterproductive error that may tear Spain apart.

    However, the narrow point that it was under the circumstances slightly less of an unforced error than calling an unneeded general election and blowing a huge lead in the polls over a tenth rate nutcase like Corbyn. While it may be worse overall, it wasn't totally unforced.
    Are you sure May blew a huge lead in the polls? I doubt it was real in the first place
    Local election results suggest otherwise. As does the Copeland by-election and indeed the Stoke one.

    It was perhaps not the 20 points sometimes claimed but it was clearly big enough for a very comfortable win until the manifesto launch.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,756

    I'm calling it a night, I don't think I'm going to be able to cope with the front pages.

    Never heard it called that before Mr Eagles! :wink:

    But if you're off, I can be off too. Good night everyone.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    Saying the vote should not go ahead is one thing.

    One answer is to ignore it, call for a boycott by your own side then dismiss the outcome as illegal and point to the low turnout (caused by the boycott).

    A good answer is not to beat up elderly voters, drag women by their hair and shoot rubber bullets at people. The law didn't demand any of that.

    Yes, I agree. That's why I said it was an error. A stupid, grotesque unnecessary and totally counterproductive error that may tear Spain apart.

    However, the narrow point that it was under the circumstances slightly less of an unforced error than calling an unneeded general election and blowing a huge lead in the polls over a tenth rate nutcase like Corbyn. While it may be worse overall, it wasn't totally unforced.
    Are you sure May blew a huge lead in the polls? I doubt it was real in the first place
    It was overstated, but probably 10-15%.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,922
    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    Saying the vote should not go ahead is one thing.

    One answer is to ignore it, call for a boycott by your own side then dismiss the outcome as illegal and point to the low turnout (caused by the boycott).

    A good answer is not to beat up elderly voters, drag women by their hair and shoot rubber bullets at people. The law didn't demand any of that.

    Yes, I agree. That's why I said it was an error. A stupid, grotesque unnecessary and totally counterproductive error that may tear Spain apart.

    However, the narrow point that it was under the circumstances slightly less of an unforced error than calling an unneeded general election and blowing a huge lead in the polls over a tenth rate nutcase like Corbyn. While it may be worse overall, it wasn't totally unforced.
    Are you sure May blew a huge lead in the polls? I doubt it was real in the first place
    The local election results suggest that there was some substance to it.
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    I am pretty certain, more than before, that a new party will emerge.

    Labour are in a mess. I just came across the blog below, which is an entirely believable account of a labour conference delegate. The party have been taken over by Momentum, centrists are fleeing the scene, and the delusion has taken hold of the members that following the 2017 election they are on the pulse of what the nation think and therefore the best judges of the parties policies:

    "We note that this is just the beginning of the final battle. Our advances have given membership a slender majority in the places where it counts, and we saw the horror in the faces of the Holdfasts as they realised how near they are being dragged to a situation where the clued up membership are truly in charge. Just think – membership might vote for anything. Palestine is back on the agenda, as is electoral reform, nationalisation of the services we rely on, NHS re-enstatement, fracking and universal credit. It’ll be Trident next. Yes, it will. Democracy is scary stuff, isn’t it."

    https://kaygreen.blog/2017/10/01/for-the-membership-not-a-few-toms-and-iains/
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    I'm calling it a night, I don't think I'm going to be able to cope with the front pages.

    How bad can they be...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited October 2017
    Were Alan sugars new batch of apprentices responsible for organizing the Tory party conference?
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,793

    @ TSE

    Clearly, yer man Cameron is the one to blame for the state of your party, and the Nation. Rightly or wrongly, he instigated the Referendum and then threw the towel in as soon as he could, despite his words that he'd stay on for a bit. If he'd hung around, maybe yer other man Osborne might have been in with a chance? Mind you, I can't blame him. He's got a hot wife, loads of money and a lifestyle not many of us will ever have. Why would he hang around to sort the mess out?


    Edit-FIRST!

    1) It was honour, he said if you lose a nation changing referendum like that, you should quit

    2) He realised he would have been seen as the wrong man to sort out the Brexit deal

    3) If he has decided to stay on, the Leadbangers would have tried to force him out, so it wasn't up to him, which would have impacted on 2)
    Tory vote 2017 = 13,669,883
    Tory vote 2015 = 11,334,226

    :innocent:
    Tory seats 2017: 316, minority
    Tory seats 2015: 331, majority

    :innocent:

    (The national vote tally is deliberately disconnected from, and disproportionate from, the representation won. A system very strongly backed by Tories, as I understand it - so citing a voting figure is just, well, sort of an interesting factoid in the background of the reality that the result was both quantitatively (fewer seats) and qualitatively (no majority) significantly worse.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Scott_P said:

    I'm calling it a night, I don't think I'm going to be able to cope with the front pages.

    How bad can they be...
    Wait til JRM PM next year.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    Saying the vote should not go ahead is one thing.

    One answer is to ignore it, call for a boycott by your own side then dismiss the outcome as illegal and point to the low turnout (caused by the boycott).

    A good answer is not to beat up elderly voters, drag women by their hair and shoot rubber bullets at people. The law didn't demand any of that.

    Yes, I agree. That's why I said it was an error. A stupid, grotesque unnecessary and totally counterproductive error that may tear Spain apart.

    However, the narrow point that it was under the circumstances slightly less of an unforced error than calling an unneeded general election and blowing a huge lead in the polls over a tenth rate nutcase like Corbyn. While it may be worse overall, it wasn't totally unforced.
    Are you sure May blew a huge lead in the polls? I doubt it was real in the first place
    Her mistake was to believe it was real. Hubris. Now we're getting nemesis. It is painful to watch.

    Philip May needs to save his wife from this. She's tried her best. She has some achievements to her name - I listed them out earlier. But she took on a hospital pass when she went for PM last June and has played the poor hand she was given very badly.

    It may be hard for her to admit that she is not up to it and/or that implementing Brexit with her current Cabinet is like herding black cats in the dark. But those who love her need to speak some hard truths to her.

    It's not doing the country any good at all to have such a paralysed government in charge.

  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited October 2017
    Scott_P said:

    I'm calling it a night, I don't think I'm going to be able to cope with the front pages.

    How bad can they be...
    The one that matters is the daily Dacre.

    Will he spare her?
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,793

    Lets not forget

    Theresa May made 2 policy promises today.

    a) Build 5 homes a yr per Local Authority.

    b) Resurrect an Energy Cap promise she's failed to keep

    To be fair it is 5000 homes per year.

    https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/915614310122033152
    I've excitedly told my Millennial daughter that her fears on housing can now be put to bed. Theresa May will (assuming proportional building) ensure there's about 7 more affordable houses per year in our constituency.

    She looked unimpressed.

    "Maybe eight?" I offered.
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    Cyclefree said:

    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    Saying the vote should not go ahead is one thing.

    One answer is to ignore it, call for a boycott by your own side then dismiss the outcome as illegal and point to the low turnout (caused by the boycott).

    A good answer is not to beat up elderly voters, drag women by their hair and shoot rubber bullets at people. The law didn't demand any of that.

    Yes, I agree. That's why I said it was an error. A stupid, grotesque unnecessary and totally counterproductive error that may tear Spain apart.

    However, the narrow point that it was under the circumstances slightly less of an unforced error than calling an unneeded general election and blowing a huge lead in the polls over a tenth rate nutcase like Corbyn. While it may be worse overall, it wasn't totally unforced.
    Are you sure May blew a huge lead in the polls? I doubt it was real in the first place
    Her mistake was to believe it was real. Hubris. Now we're getting nemesis. It is painful to watch.

    Philip May needs to save his wife from this. She's tried her best. She has some achievements to her name - I listed them out earlier. But she took on a hospital pass when she went for PM last June and has played the poor hand she was given very badly.

    It may be hard for her to admit that she is not up to it and/or that implementing Brexit with her current Cabinet is like herding black cats in the dark. But those who love her need to speak some hard truths to her.

    It's not doing the country any good at all to have such a paralysed government in charge.

    But would the government be any less paralysed if she left?
    They can't agree on what they want!
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    For heavens sake man, go!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @somersetlevel: Asked about her son’s prank at #Conservativeconference, Irene Brodkin said ‘Simon has always been a wanker, it’s a pity his father wasn’t.’
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Sean_F said:

    It seems Catalonia's government will declare independence on Monday.

    Then what?

    Then nothing. Any declaration would have the same force in law as the 'referendum'. There remains a majority in the region which wants to stay with Spain.
    Says who and with what evidence? If that were the case then hold a centrally-authorised referendum to show so.
    All the recent polling gives a majority against separation.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan_independence = see the table at the end.

    The w/e referendum was illegal. Maybe you should write to the Spanish government telling them what to do. I'm sure they'd be all ears.
    Both governments are acting to inflame the situation.
    A logical decision by the Catalan government. They want people to hate the Spanish government.

    As for Rajoy, he can thank Theresa May for the fact that so far his actions have not been the greatest unforced error in politics since Chamberlain declared 'peace in our time.'
    The potential loss of Catalonia would be far more catastrophic than the loss of 13 seats.
    Isn't it the "actual" rather than the "potential" loss.
    Rajoy is already strengthening army units in and around Catalonia
  • @ TSE

    Clearly, yer man Cameron is the one to blame for the state of your party, and the Nation. Rightly or wrongly, he instigated the Referendum and then threw the towel in as soon as he could, despite his words that he'd stay on for a bit. If he'd hung around, maybe yer other man Osborne might have been in with a chance? Mind you, I can't blame him. He's got a hot wife, loads of money and a lifestyle not many of us will ever have. Why would he hang around to sort the mess out?


    Edit-FIRST!

    1) It was honour, he said if you lose a nation changing referendum like that, you should quit

    2) He realised he would have been seen as the wrong man to sort out the Brexit deal

    3) If he has decided to stay on, the Leadbangers would have tried to force him out, so it wasn't up to him, which would have impacted on 2)
    Tory vote 2017 = 13,669,883
    Tory vote 2015 = 11,334,226

    :innocent:
    Tory seats 2017: 316, minority
    Tory seats 2015: 331, majority

    :innocent:

    (The national vote tally is deliberately disconnected from, and disproportionate from, the representation won. A system very strongly backed by Tories, as I understand it - so citing a voting figure is just, well, sort of an interesting factoid in the background of the reality that the result was both quantitatively (fewer seats) and qualitatively (no majority) significantly worse.
    Yes we know that - OGH and TSE keep telling us!

    Still, more people around the UK voted for Theresa than they did for Dave :sunglasses:
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MattChorley: “A loss. That is diabolical. That is really really diabolical.” #ApprenticeLinesForTheresa
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    One for our Spanish experts, what has happened to Basque nationalism, that, via ETA, used to be the one to worry about?

    The Scottish independence movement became an inspiration for a non violent approach.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MattChorley: “I am looking at a load of dead meat.” #ApprenticeLinesForTheresa
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    Saying the vote should not go ahead is one thing.

    One answer is to ignore it, call for a boycott by your own side then dismiss the outcome as illegal and point to the low turnout (caused by the boycott).

    A good answer is not to beat up elderly voters, drag women by their hair and shoot rubber bullets at people. The law didn't demand any of that.

    Yes, I agree. That's why I said it was an error. A stupid, grotesque unnecessary and totally counterproductive error that may tear Spain apart.

    However, the narrow point that it was under the circumstances slightly less of an unforced error than calling an unneeded general election and blowing a huge lead in the polls over a tenth rate nutcase like Corbyn. While it may be worse overall, it wasn't totally unforced.
    Are you sure May blew a huge lead in the polls? I doubt it was real in the first place
    The lead in the polls was real Charles. How accurately it reflected actual voting intention we don't know but the poll lead was evidently real.

    (Point of logic)
  • If Philip believes it is too much for her and she decides to stand down, then I would expect her to continue in Office until Christmas to give the party the time for a proper contest to succeed her

    The disappointing thing today is that up to and just after the P45 incident she had spoken well but her cold and cough took over her and even I admit is was difficult to watch

    As far as the props were concerned I very much doubt it was the conservative party's fault but a staging contractor.

    Anyway let's hope she has a few days rest and see in the cold light of day how this plays out
  • You have to laugh. ZombieMay has limbs falling off, that's how long she's been left to rot. They have an obvious alternative in the shape of BoJo yet insist the leprotic zombie is better because he's a cad/a better populist than they are.

    Without Brexit it wouldn't matter. Those of us not Tories would enjoy the spectacle of a grand old party collapsing into it's own grave and look forward to their imminent end and decade long banishment. But we have Brexit. So it does matter.

    The country deserves better than this. Needs better. Demands better. Not installing a Prime Minister to replace this self-destructing political black hole and lead the country through Brexit is choosing to aggressively prioritise petty internal squabbles over the people and the nation.

    Which for a Conservative Party is pretty shit. Get it done. Fast.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    If Philip believes it is too much for her and she decides to stand down, then I would expect her to continue in Office until Christmas to give the party the time for a proper contest to succeed her

    The disappointing thing today is that up to and just after the P45 incident she had spoken well but her cold and cough took over her and even I admit is was difficult to watch

    As far as the props were concerned I very much doubt it was the conservative party's fault but a staging contractor.

    Anyway let's hope she has a few days rest and see in the cold light of day how this plays out

    She certainly pulled a few rabbits out the hat, but not in a good way.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    Scott_P said:

    @somersetlevel: Asked about her son’s prank at #Conservativeconference, Irene Brodkin said ‘Simon has always been a wanker, it’s a pity his father wasn’t.’

    Haha, comedy obviously runs in that family.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    Saying the vote should not go ahead is one thing.

    One answer is to ignore it, call for a boycott by your own side then dismiss the outcome as illegal and point to the low turnout (caused by the boycott).

    A good answer is not to beat up elderly voters, drag women by their hair and shoot rubber bullets at people. The law didn't demand any of that.

    Yes, I agree. That's why I said it was an error. A stupid, grotesque unnecessary and totally counterproductive error that may tear Spain apart.

    However, the narrow point that it was under the circumstances slightly less of an unforced error than calling an unneeded general election and blowing a huge lead in the polls over a tenth rate nutcase like Corbyn. While it may be worse overall, it wasn't totally unforced.
    Are you sure May blew a huge lead in the polls? I doubt it was real in the first place
    The lead in the polls was real Charles. How accurately it reflected actual voting intention we don't know but the poll lead was evidently real.

    (Point of logic)
    PB at its pedantic best.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "The poll also asked about TfL declining Uber’s application for a licence renewal. When this was first announced there was a very negative reaction on social media… but of course, that over-represents exactly the sort of people who regularly use Uber. The poll finds that people who regularly use Uber do indeed think it was the wrong decision (by 63% to 27%)… but the majority of Londoners use Uber rarely or never and they approve of the decision. Overall 43% of people think it was right to take away Uber’s licence, 31% think it was wrong. Even among those regular Uber users there’s no obvious sign of a backlash against Khan or Labour. 66% of them still say Khan is doing a good job, 63% say they would vote Labour in an election tomorrow. Personally I’d be extremely surprised if the whole thing didn’t end up with a compromise between TfL and Uber allowing them to renew their licence, but for the moment the polling suggests that the public back Sadiq Khan on the issue."

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
  • WinstanleyWinstanley Posts: 434
    edited October 2017

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Been out all day. Missed much?

    I spent most of today wishing Theresa May had lost her seat in 2015 instead of Mark Reckless.
    Surely that's crossing the line.
    I reckon TPD winning his seat in 2015 would have caused less damage for the Tory party than Mrs May did today.
    Cameron winning a majority by massacring his coalition partner and promising a referendum damaged the Tory party.

    Just imagine a nice minority with C&S from nice Mr Clegg facing the even nicer Mr Milliband.
    The issue of our relationship with the EU was coming, it just happened on Cameron's watch.

    This could have all been avoided if Blair and Brown had delivered on their promise of a referendum on Lisbon.
    They were much cleverer than both Cameron and May. Anyway Euroscepticism started with Major and Maastricht.
    Almost like you forgot which party called the 1975 referendum.
    Er, 'Remain' won that one with 67%. Maastricht is where the rot set in. Curiously, that vote led to the SDP. Wonder what we have in store from the last one.
    You also seem to forget Foot's manifesto of 1983.

    Isn't it odd that the UK only left the EU when Labour had as Leader a eurosceptic who sabotaged the Remain campaign.
    This meme that Corbyn 'sabotaged' Remain is just bizarre conspiracy-mongering, on parr with Owen Smith questioning whether Corbyn voted Remain (after doing a dozen rallies, some TV slots, articles etc...).

    65% of Labour voters went Remain, compared with 68% of Lib Dem voters. A substantial amount of people in the 35% will have been the Labour GE voters who went UKIP for the European parliament election in 2014 (https://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/11/17/how-ukips-support-has-grown-and-changed/), hardly Corbyn's fault for them to vote Leave.

    Remain was shite. Didn't understand the country. Didn't need sabotaging by anybody but themselves.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Cyclefree said:

    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    Saying the vote should not go ahead is one thing.

    One answer is to ignore it, call for a boycott by your own side then dismiss the outcome as illegal and point to the low turnout (caused by the boycott).

    A good answer is not to beat up elderly voters, drag women by their hair and shoot rubber bullets at people. The law didn't demand any of that.

    Yes, I agree. That's why I said it was an error. A stupid, grotesque unnecessary and totally counterproductive error that may tear Spain apart.

    However, the narrow point that it was under the circumstances slightly less of an unforced error than calling an unneeded general election and blowing a huge lead in the polls over a tenth rate nutcase like Corbyn. While it may be worse overall, it wasn't totally unforced.
    Are you sure May blew a huge lead in the polls? I doubt it was real in the first place
    Her mistake was to believe it was real. Hubris. Now we're getting nemesis. It is painful to watch.

    Philip May needs to save his wife from this. She's tried her best. She has some achievements to her name - I listed them out earlier. But she took on a hospital pass when she went for PM last June and has played the poor hand she was given very badly.

    It may be hard for her to admit that she is not up to it and/or that implementing Brexit with her current Cabinet is like herding black cats in the dark. But those who love her need to speak some hard truths to her.

    It's not doing the country any good at all to have such a paralysed government in charge.

    I don't agree about her belief in the polls being hubris; we all believed them, possibly with the reservation that the top 5% might be a bit frothy. The problem was thinking that she could cash the lead into seats without even a token show of humanity or warmth or willingness to please or prospective gratitude for anyone's vote. Ghastly Andrea Leadsom was ghastly, but she was also right: May lacks children, and also lacks the very basic empathy which would in most cases mean that the lack of children was irrelevant. It is an open question whether May's utterly ghastly doorkeepers are equally autistic, or detected and exploited her autism.

    I struggle to see how today could have gone worse, short of a replay of the Jimmy Carter rabbit incident.
  • Jonathan said:

    If Philip believes it is too much for her and she decides to stand down, then I would expect her to continue in Office until Christmas to give the party the time for a proper contest to succeed her

    The disappointing thing today is that up to and just after the P45 incident she had spoken well but her cold and cough took over her and even I admit is was difficult to watch

    As far as the props were concerned I very much doubt it was the conservative party's fault but a staging contractor.

    Anyway let's hope she has a few days rest and see in the cold light of day how this plays out

    She certainly pulled a few rabbits out the hat, but not in a good way.
    The rabbits are still there but it is hard not to have sympathy for her -

    How many of us are saying 'but for the grace of God'
  • Scott_P said:

    I'm calling it a night, I don't think I'm going to be able to cope with the front pages.

    How bad can they be...
    The pb thread montage of front pages a la gordon brown awaits...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    How many of us are saying 'but for the grace of God'

    I have been there (sort of)
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545
    edited October 2017
    Cyclefree said:

    Her mistake was to believe it was real. Hubris. Now we're getting nemesis. It is painful to watch.

    Philip May needs to save his wife from this. She's tried her best. She has some achievements to her name - I listed them out earlier. But she took on a hospital pass when she went for PM last June and has played the poor hand she was given very badly.

    It may be hard for her to admit that she is not up to it and/or that implementing Brexit with her current Cabinet is like herding black cats in the dark. But those who love her need to speak some hard truths to her.

    It's not doing the country any good at all to have such a paralysed government in charge.

    May, probably not her successor, needs in the next six weeks or so to sign up to almost every A50 demand made by the EU, to ensure a two year continuity arrangement is included in the final deal this time next year. If the government hadn't been so cack-handed in its dealings, it could have negotiated something but it's out of time. I doubt Mrs May's successor will want a full-blown Brexit crisis and they will want that continuity period. Of course the clock will immediately start clicking on the continuity arrangement, but that's Mrs May's successor's concern (as well as ours).
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    Betting on her to go this year could be risky in the sense that even if she resigns next week it might take till January to choose new leader. Say:

    11 Oct - Resigns
    16 Oct - Nominations open
    19 Oct - Nominations close
    24 Oct - MPs 1st ballot
    26 Oct - MPs 2nd ballot
    29 Oct - MPs 3rd ballot (if needed)

    Even if down to two candidates by 26 Oct, I think members ballot is normally done over approx 8 weeks which would be very close indeed to Christmas.

    Maybe they might do it over 6 weeks but even that would be approx 10 December - and that's all based on her going next week.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited October 2017
    LOL -- Huw Edwards introducing the report on May's speech. He started by saying "this report contains...."

    For a split second I honestly thought he was going to say "...scenes that some viewers may find distressing".

    [it was actually "flashing images"]
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    Looking at the possible replacements, maybe the Tory party should reacquaint themselves with Hilaire Belloc...
    And always keep a hold of Nurse
    For fear of finding something worse.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Jonathan said:

    If Philip believes it is too much for her and she decides to stand down, then I would expect her to continue in Office until Christmas to give the party the time for a proper contest to succeed her

    The disappointing thing today is that up to and just after the P45 incident she had spoken well but her cold and cough took over her and even I admit is was difficult to watch

    As far as the props were concerned I very much doubt it was the conservative party's fault but a staging contractor.

    Anyway let's hope she has a few days rest and see in the cold light of day how this plays out

    She certainly pulled a few rabbits out the hat, but not in a good way.
    The rabbits are still there but it is hard not to have sympathy for her -

    How many of us are saying 'but for the grace of God'
    Not me, for one.

    She is Mrs Bean; she has got to the stage that Carter, Major and Brown reached where random hilarious and humiliating accidents just keep on happening, and the commentators dust down the word "beleaguered" just for her.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    edited October 2017

    Jonathan said:

    If Philip believes it is too much for her and she decides to stand down, then I would expect her to continue in Office until Christmas to give the party the time for a proper contest to succeed her

    The disappointing thing today is that up to and just after the P45 incident she had spoken well but her cold and cough took over her and even I admit is was difficult to watch

    As far as the props were concerned I very much doubt it was the conservative party's fault but a staging contractor.

    Anyway let's hope she has a few days rest and see in the cold light of day how this plays out

    She certainly pulled a few rabbits out the hat, but not in a good way.
    The rabbits are still there but it is hard not to have sympathy for her -

    How many of us are saying 'but for the grace of God'
    I'm afraid it did look more like a rabbit caught in headlights to me :disappointed:
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Looking at the possible replacements, maybe the Tory party should reacquaint themselves with Hilaire Belloc...
    And always keep a hold of Nurse
    For fear of finding something worse.

    Not forgetting Lord Lundy:

    It happened to Lord Lundy then,
    As happens to so many men:
    Towards the age of twenty-six,
    They shoved him into politics;
    In which profession he commanded
    The Income that his rank demanded
    In turn as Secretary for
    India, the Colonies, and War.
    But very soon his friends began
    To doubt is he were quite the man:
    Thus if a member rose to say
    (As members do from day to day),
    "Arising out of that reply . . .!"
    Lord Lundy would begin to cry.
    A Hint at harmless little jobs
    Would shake him with convulsive sobs.
    While as for Revelations, these
    Would simply bring him to his knees,
    And leave him whimpering like a child.
    It drove his colleagues raving wild!
    They let him sink from Post to Post,
    From fifteen hundred at the most
    To eight, and barely six--and then
    To be Curator of Big Ben!. . .
    And finally there came a Threat
    To oust him from the Cabinet!

    The Duke -- his aged grand-sire -- bore
    The shame till he could bear no more.
    He rallied his declining powers,
    Summoned the youth to Brackley Towers,
    And bitterly addressed him thus--
    "Sir! you have disappointed us!
    We had intended you to be
    The next Prime Minister but three:
    The stocks were sold; the Press was squared:
    The Middle Class was quite prepared.
    But as it is! . . . My language fails!
    Go out and govern New South Wales!"

    The Aged Patriot groaned and died:
    And gracious! how Lord Lundy cried!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    SeanT said:

    Oh god. Rewatching on News Ten. This is unbearable.

    Haha at least you can switch off - how bad must it have been for the cabinet sat there in the front row! :lol:
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545
    Ishmael_Z said:


    I don't agree about her belief in the polls being hubris; we all believed them, possibly with the reservation that the top 5% might be a bit frothy. The problem was thinking that she could cash the lead into seats without even a token show of humanity or warmth or willingness to please or prospective gratitude for anyone's vote. Ghastly Andrea Leadsom was ghastly, but she was also right: May lacks children, and also lacks the very basic empathy which would in most cases mean that the lack of children was irrelevant. It is an open question whether May's utterly ghastly doorkeepers are equally autistic, or detected and exploited her autism.

    I struggle to see how today could have gone worse, short of a replay of the Jimmy Carter rabbit incident.

    Copeland led the Conservatives into a false sense of security, I think. Remarkably the government won a byelection off the opposition, who fielded a GP and a personable candidate with a ready-made local hospitals issue to exploit.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    News at Ten. blimey.

    At least IDS is no longer leading the worst speech ever list.
  • SeanT said:

    Oh god. Rewatching on News Ten. This is unbearable.

    Haha at least you can switch off - how bad must it have been for the cabinet sat there in the front row! :lol:
    And her more than anybody.

    I do think this extraordinary day may change the dynamic of her leadership. We will have to see.

    Politics hey
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited October 2017
    https://twitter.com/thesun/status/915685593606246401

    "This is what happens when you send the Polish builders home..."
  • Scott_P said:

    How many of us are saying 'but for the grace of God'

    I have been there (sort of)
    As have I on several important occassions
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Looking at the possible replacements, maybe the Tory party should reacquaint themselves with Hilaire Belloc...
    And always keep a hold of Nurse
    For fear of finding something worse.

    Physicians of the Utmost Fame
    Were called at once; but when they came
    They answered, as they took their Fees,
    ``There is no Cure for this Disease."
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,400
    Cyclefree said:

    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    Saying the vote should not go ahead is one thing.

    One answer is to ignore it, call for a boycott by your own side then dismiss the outcome as illegal and point to the low turnout (caused by the boycott).

    A good answer is not to beat up elderly voters, drag women by their hair and shoot rubber bullets at people. The law didn't demand any of that.

    Yes, I agree. That's why I said it was an error. A stupid, grotesque unnecessary and totally counterproductive error that may tear Spain apart.

    However, the narrow point that it was under the circumstances slightly less of an unforced error than calling an unneeded general election and blowing a huge lead in the polls over a tenth rate nutcase like Corbyn. While it may be worse overall, it wasn't totally unforced.
    Are you sure May blew a huge lead in the polls? I doubt it was real in the first place
    It may be hard for her to admit that she is not up to it and/or that implementing Brexit with her current Cabinet is like herding black cats in the dark. But those who love her need to speak some hard truths to her.


    I suspect the problem now is that with things as they stand the only person with a credible chance at replacing her swiftly is Boris Johnson, and call me crazy, they don't seem to be fans of one another, or at least their allies leak enough to make it seem that way. Her demeanour is not that of someone who thinks they can overcome the wounds suffered in June, it's of someone who does not they are not up to it, but desperate to be there long enough to at least deny Boris the prize.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,401
    Prompted by today's outrageous stunt during Tezzie's speech...

    ...my other half has booked tickets to see Lee Nelson! Legend.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    MikeL said:

    Betting on her to go this year could be risky in the sense that even if she resigns next week it might take till January to choose new leader. Say:

    11 Oct - Resigns
    16 Oct - Nominations open
    19 Oct - Nominations close
    24 Oct - MPs 1st ballot
    26 Oct - MPs 2nd ballot
    29 Oct - MPs 3rd ballot (if needed)

    Even if down to two candidates by 26 Oct, I think members ballot is normally done over approx 8 weeks which would be very close indeed to Christmas.

    Maybe they might do it over 6 weeks but even that would be approx 10 December - and that's all based on her going next week.

    The LDs appointed a leader around the 20th December IIRC
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Been out all day. Missed much?

    I spent most of today wishing Theresa May had lost her seat in 2015 instead of Mark Reckless.
    Surely that's crossing the line.
    I reckon TPD winning his seat in 2015 would have caused less damage for the Tory party than Mrs May did today.
    Cameron winning a majority by massacring his coalition partner and promising a referendum damaged the Tory party.

    Just imagine a nice minority with C&S from nice Mr Clegg facing the even nicer Mr Milliband.
    The issue of our relationship with the EU was coming, it just happened on Cameron's watch.

    This could have all been avoided if Blair and Brown had delivered on their promise of a referendum on Lisbon.
    They were much cleverer than both Cameron and May. Anyway Euroscepticism started with Major and Maastricht.
    No it didn't. It started much earlier. For a start the Bruges Group was founded in 1989 and it was because of her antipathy towards the EC project that Maggie was removed by the Eurofanatics in her party.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    edited October 2017
    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    Saying the vote should not go ahead is one thing.

    One answer is to ignore it, call for a boycott by your own side then dismiss the outcome as illegal and point to the low turnout (caused by the boycott).

    A good answer is not to beat up elderly voters, drag women by their hair and shoot rubber bullets at people. The law didn't demand any of that.

    Yes, I agree. That's why I said it was an error. A stupid, grotesque unnecessary and totally counterproductive error that may tear Spain apart.

    However, the narrow point that it was under the circumstances slightly less of an unforced error than calling an unneeded general election and blowing a huge lead in the polls over a tenth rate nutcase like Corbyn. While it may be worse overall, it wasn't totally unforced.
    Are you sure May blew a huge lead in the polls? I doubt it was real in the first place
    It may be hard for her to admit that she is not up to it and/or that implementing Brexit with her current Cabinet is like herding black cats in the dark. But those who love her need to speak some hard truths to her.


    I suspect the problem now is that with things as they stand the only person with a credible chance at replacing her swiftly is Boris Johnson, and call me crazy, they don't seem to be fans of one another, or at least their allies leak enough to make it seem that way. Her demeanour is not that of someone who thinks they can overcome the wounds suffered in June, it's of someone who does not they are not up to it, but desperate to be there long enough to at least deny Boris the prize.
    That rings true but it doesn't stop 47 MPs writing to the 1922 committee chairman.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    Saying the vote should not go ahead is one thing.

    One answer is to ignore it, call for a boycott by your own side then dismiss the outcome as illegal and point to the low turnout (caused by the boycott).

    A good answer is not to beat up elderly voters, drag women by their hair and shoot rubber bullets at people. The law didn't demand any of that.

    Yes, I agree. That's why I said it was an error. A stupid, grotesque unnecessary and totally counterproductive error that may tear Spain apart.

    However, the narrow point that it was under the circumstances slightly less of an unforced error than calling an unneeded general election and blowing a huge lead in the polls over a tenth rate nutcase like Corbyn. While it may be worse overall, it wasn't totally unforced.
    Are you sure May blew a huge lead in the polls? I doubt it was real in the first place
    It may be hard for her to admit that she is not up to it and/or that implementing Brexit with her current Cabinet is like herding black cats in the dark. But those who love her need to speak some hard truths to her.


    I suspect the problem now is that with things as they stand the only person with a credible chance at replacing her swiftly is Boris Johnson, and call me crazy, they don't seem to be fans of one another, or at least their allies leak enough to make it seem that way. Her demeanour is not that of someone who thinks they can overcome the wounds suffered in June, it's of someone who does not they are not up to it, but desperate to be there long enough to at least deny Boris the prize.
    George was right on June 9th.

    She wasted 3 months on an election and another 3 clinging on.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    MikeL said:

    Betting on her to go this year could be risky in the sense that even if she resigns next week it might take till January to choose new leader. Say:

    11 Oct - Resigns
    16 Oct - Nominations open
    19 Oct - Nominations close
    24 Oct - MPs 1st ballot
    26 Oct - MPs 2nd ballot
    29 Oct - MPs 3rd ballot (if needed)

    Even if down to two candidates by 26 Oct, I think members ballot is normally done over approx 8 weeks which would be very close indeed to Christmas.

    Maybe they might do it over 6 weeks but even that would be approx 10 December - and that's all based on her going next week.

    This is very significant post for bettors and is worth a header of its own...
This discussion has been closed.