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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » When will Mrs May announces her decision to stand down or be r

SystemSystem Posts: 6,389
edited October 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » When will Mrs May announces her decision to stand down or be removed

I like this market from Paddy Power, a lot of the markets on Theresa May’s departure are when she formally stops being Prime Minister, this market is when she announces her intention to stand down (or loses a vote of confidence of the parliamentary part, not when she actually goes. For example if this market had existed for David Cameron, it would have paid out on June 24th 2016 when Dave announced his intention resign, not July 13th when he ceased to be Prime Minister.

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Comments

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 33,789
    Makes sense - deal/no deal mostly known, no-one else keen to take over immediately as a result so remaining in place for some time. So quite handy for a market on announcement, not when she will actually go.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,540
    Boring, the sooner the loser is gone the better.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 9,293
    kle4 said:

    Makes sense - deal/no deal mostly known, no-one else keen to take over immediately as a result so remaining in place for some time. So quite handy for a market on announcement, not when she will actually go.

    I disagree. I think when the end comes it won't be in a neat way. I quite like the look of Q2 next year. That will include the local elections.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 33,789
    malcolmg said:

    Boring, the sooner the loser is gone the better.

    The sooner she goes the greater the chance Boris takes over! Granted, that would not be boring.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,712
    malcolmg said:

    Boring, the sooner the loser is gone the better.

    And yet he looks remarkably secure in his position.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 19,989
    Any way of laying that 10/3 on November, that pays out at the end of November?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 31,071
    malcolmg said:

    Boring, the sooner the loser is gone the better.

    I thought you liked Nicola ?
  • Re the previous thread, Don's having a bit of a meltdown on twitter.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 12,261
    I suspect that, to some extent, it depends on the Budget. One that is seen a succesful, or at least workable and the Government is safe until Jan 1st.
    On the other hand, another omnishambles..........
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 21,402
    How would this work in the case of a coup? Theresa May wouldn't announce her departure but she wouldn't be removed until some time later.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 33,789

    Re the previous thread, Don's having a bit of a meltdown on twitter.

    I feel like that final exclamation was his own internal stage direction, which he forgot not to type. (Though wasn't it said during the election that he dictates his tweets rather than types them himself? In which case kudos to the person for capturing the right tone with the all caps and punctuation.)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 33,789

    I suspect that, to some extent, it depends on the Budget. One that is seen a succesful, or at least workable and the Government is safe until Jan 1st.
    On the other hand, another omnishambles..........

    Problem for the government is a lot of very minor things can get extrapolated into an omnishambles even when they might be small fry, and given their inherent weakness that means they will find it difficult not to seem to have a bad one.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 12,261
    kle4 said:

    I suspect that, to some extent, it depends on the Budget. One that is seen a succesful, or at least workable and the Government is safe until Jan 1st.
    On the other hand, another omnishambles..........

    Problem for the government is a lot of very minor things can get extrapolated into an omnishambles even when they might be small fry, and given their inherent weakness that means they will find it difficult not to seem to have a bad one.
    One rerasonably good thing, though, would let them carry on for a couple of weeks. Which is all it needs, as by the middle of December everyone’s thoughts, except some on here will be elsewhere.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 33,789

    kle4 said:

    I suspect that, to some extent, it depends on the Budget. One that is seen a succesful, or at least workable and the Government is safe until Jan 1st.
    On the other hand, another omnishambles..........

    Problem for the government is a lot of very minor things can get extrapolated into an omnishambles even when they might be small fry, and given their inherent weakness that means they will find it difficult not to seem to have a bad one.
    One rerasonably good thing, though, would let them carry on for a couple of weeks. Which is all it needs, as by the middle of December everyone’s thoughts, except some on here will be elsewhere.
    Stumbling along is not their problem - they need something to change the narrative.
  • Given that we're told that it's a million 'Catalans' protesting against UDI in Barcelona today, Catalunya must be concerned about the numbers of Nazi saluters & Falangists among their population.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,540
    kle4 said:

    malcolmg said:

    Boring, the sooner the loser is gone the better.

    The sooner she goes the greater the chance Boris takes over! Granted, that would not be boring.
    One can only hope there are not that many stupid halfwits in UK that would vote that buffoon anywhere near power.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,540

    Given that we're told that it's a million 'Catalans' protesting against UDI in Barcelona today, Catalunya must be concerned about the numbers of Nazi saluters & Falangists among their population.

    Spanish Tories out in big numbers
  • We are all Catalans now(?)
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,540
    edited October 2017

    malcolmg said:

    Boring, the sooner the loser is gone the better.

    I thought you liked Nicola ?
    Oh how we chuckled
    PS: I have never professed any great liking for Nicola, best of a bad bunch but not a patch on Salmond for sure. She is a tad too left wing for my liking.
  • Leaving aside the point @AlastairMeeks has just made about possible ambiguity in the event of a coup, I'm not sure that TSE's assessment is very realistic. If Mrs May wants to announce her departure in the second half of 2018, surely she'd make her move earlier so that a new leader can be in place for the Conference? In any case, October 2018 is likely to be right in the middle of a time when Brexit negotiations become fraught, and changing leader then would be exceedingly hard.

    I think the 9/4 on 2019 and later is the value here.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 33,789
    malcolmg said:

    kle4 said:

    malcolmg said:

    Boring, the sooner the loser is gone the better.

    The sooner she goes the greater the chance Boris takes over! Granted, that would not be boring.
    One can only hope there are not that many stupid halfwits in UK that would vote that buffoon anywhere near power.
    There just need to a) be enough Tory MPs to see him to the last 2 candidates and b) enough Tory members who would vote for him, which generally the polls of members indicate there is. Be very afraid.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 19,540
    kle4 said:

    malcolmg said:

    kle4 said:

    malcolmg said:

    Boring, the sooner the loser is gone the better.

    The sooner she goes the greater the chance Boris takes over! Granted, that would not be boring.
    One can only hope there are not that many stupid halfwits in UK that would vote that buffoon anywhere near power.
    There just need to a) be enough Tory MPs to see him to the last 2 candidates and b) enough Tory members who would vote for him, which generally the polls of members indicate there is. Be very afraid.
    Makes Corbyn sound like a good choice
  • Leaving aside the point @AlastairMeeks has just made about possible ambiguity in the event of a coup, I'm not sure that TSE's assessment is very realistic. If Mrs May wants to announce her departure in the second half of 2018, surely she'd make her move earlier so that a new leader can be in place for the Conference? In any case, October 2018 is likely to be right in the middle of a time when Brexit negotiations become fraught, and changing leader then would be exceedingly hard.

    I think the 9/4 on 2019 and later is the value here.

    the United Kingdom will be leaving the European Union in March 2019 and I think shortly after that Mrs May will formally go.
  • Leaving aside the point @AlastairMeeks has just made about possible ambiguity in the event of a coup, I'm not sure that TSE's assessment is very realistic. If Mrs May wants to announce her departure in the second half of 2018, surely she'd make her move earlier so that a new leader can be in place for the Conference? In any case, October 2018 is likely to be right in the middle of a time when Brexit negotiations become fraught, and changing leader then would be exceedingly hard.

    I think the 9/4 on 2019 and later is the value here.

    the United Kingdom will be leaving the European Union in March 2019 and I think shortly after that Mrs May will formally go.
    I agree, but I don't think she'd want a leadership contest to be going on before that date. It would be too damaging to the already fragile Brexit process.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 16,994
    kle4 said:

    malcolmg said:

    kle4 said:

    malcolmg said:

    Boring, the sooner the loser is gone the better.

    The sooner she goes the greater the chance Boris takes over! Granted, that would not be boring.
    One can only hope there are not that many stupid halfwits in UK that would vote that buffoon anywhere near power.
    There just need to a) be enough Tory MPs to see him to the last 2 candidates and b) enough Tory members who would vote for him, which generally the polls of members indicate there is. Be very afraid.
    Unless JRM beats him.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 16,994
    kle4 said:

    Re the previous thread, Don's having a bit of a meltdown on twitter.

    I feel like that final exclamation was his own internal stage direction, which he forgot not to type. (Though wasn't it said during the election that he dictates his tweets rather than types them himself? In which case kudos to the person for capturing the right tone with the all caps and punctuation.)
    Interestingly he seems to be trying to reconnect with GOP. There was much talk a few weeks ago that he had abandoned them to run a 'solo' presidency, cutting deals with Pelosi when needed.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 19,989
    edited October 2017

    Leaving aside the point @AlastairMeeks has just made about possible ambiguity in the event of a coup, I'm not sure that TSE's assessment is very realistic. If Mrs May wants to announce her departure in the second half of 2018, surely she'd make her move earlier so that a new leader can be in place for the Conference? In any case, October 2018 is likely to be right in the middle of a time when Brexit negotiations become fraught, and changing leader then would be exceedingly hard.

    I think the 9/4 on 2019 and later is the value here.

    the United Kingdom will be leaving the European Union in March 2019 and I think shortly after that Mrs May will formally go.
    Yes, I’d think that Mrs May will announce her intention to stand down shortly after we leave the EU, hopefully with something like a 2005-style* debate over the summer and the new PM in place for conference Oct ‘19

    *much more difficult to do in government than in opposition of course.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,760
    AndyJS said:

    "Radio 5 Live's George Riley suspended after sexual harassment complaints

    The sports presenter is the subject of one of multiple allegations of harassment currently being handled by the BBC"

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2017/oct/29/bbc-radio-5-lives-george-riley-suspended-after-sexual-harassment-complaints

    I don't want to prejudge anything but that's quite a coincidence.

    Yesterday morning I was telling a colleague that there's a sports commentator on Radio 5 who treats his fellow female early morning commentator as though she's a dummy when in fact she's knowledgeable and hangs on every word of his fellow male commentator who really does know nothing.

    I surmised it was because he's from Yorkshire where women do the ironing but was surprised the BBC hadn't at least told him to cool it.

    And low and behold guess who it was....
  • Roger said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Radio 5 Live's George Riley suspended after sexual harassment complaints

    The sports presenter is the subject of one of multiple allegations of harassment currently being handled by the BBC"

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2017/oct/29/bbc-radio-5-lives-george-riley-suspended-after-sexual-harassment-complaints

    I don't want to prejudge anything but that's quite a coincidence.

    Yesterday morning I was telling a colleague that there's a sports commentator on Radio 5 who treats his fellow female early morning commentator as though she's a dummy when in fact she's knowledgeable and hangs on every word of his fellow male commentator who really does know nothing.

    I surmised it was because he's from Yorkshire where women do the ironing but was surprised the BBC hadn't at least told him to cool it.

    And low and behold guess who it was....
    i particularly like how the BBC are "reporting" this ..... it's at the very bottom of this garnier story...

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41794625

  • O/T again

    Joey Barton is perhaps not a fan of David Unsworth on Talksport.... mainly because it appears he thinks he is too fat to be a football manager... on and on he's going on about it.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,175
    edited October 2017
    Previous thread.

    TimT's suggestion that the forthcoming indictment is against Paul Manafort is fair conclusion. The lack of smoke signals out of the investigations in recent weeks was the warning that they were close to charging someone.

    I did find this a curious article.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/28/trump-assange-bannon-farage-bound-together-in-unholy-alliance

    Many many months ago I said that Farage would turn out not to be uber Brit he was always knocking on to be and he should have been careful what cause he hitched himself to. But most of all, worst of all, remember all those people who thought Julian Assange was such a great guy a little bit back?

    Yeah...
  • Y0kel said:

    Previous thread.

    TimT's suggestion that the forthcoming indictment is against Paul Manafort is fair conclusion. The lack of smoke signals out of the investigations in recent weeks was the warning that they were close to charging someone.

    I did find this a curious article.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/28/trump-assange-bannon-farage-bound-together-in-unholy-alliance

    Many many months ago I said that Farage would turn out not to be uber Brit he was always knocking on to be and he should have been careful what cause he hitched himself to. But most of all, worst of all, remember all those people who thought Julian Assange was such a great guy a little bit back?

    Yeah...

    Funny how the guardianistas don't seem to be as keen on Julian these days...
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,175

    Y0kel said:

    Previous thread.

    TimT's suggestion that the forthcoming indictment is against Paul Manafort is fair conclusion. The lack of smoke signals out of the investigations in recent weeks was the warning that they were close to charging someone.

    I did find this a curious article.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/28/trump-assange-bannon-farage-bound-together-in-unholy-alliance

    Many many months ago I said that Farage would turn out not to be uber Brit he was always knocking on to be and he should have been careful what cause he hitched himself to. But most of all, worst of all, remember all those people who thought Julian Assange was such a great guy a little bit back?

    Yeah...

    Funny how the guardianistas don't seem to be as keen on Julian these days...
    How f**king stupid can people get even after the links started to come out.
    kle4 said:

    Re the previous thread, Don's having a bit of a meltdown on twitter.

    I feel like that final exclamation was his own internal stage direction, which he forgot not to type. (Though wasn't it said during the election that he dictates his tweets rather than types them himself? In which case kudos to the person for capturing the right tone with the all caps and punctuation.)
    When it arrives publicly at the Trump family doorstep, we'll see how he reacts.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,760
    Y0kel said:

    Previous thread.

    TimT's suggestion that the forthcoming indictment is against Paul Manafort is fair conclusion. The lack of smoke signals out of the investigations in recent weeks was the warning that they were close to charging someone.

    I did find this a curious article.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/28/trump-assange-bannon-farage-bound-together-in-unholy-alliance

    Many many months ago I said that Farage would turn out not to be uber Brit he was always knocking on to be and he should have been careful what cause he hitched himself to. But most of all, worst of all, remember all those people who thought Julian Assange was such a great guy a little bit back?

    Yeah...

    That's an interesting article. If you sleep with dogs you catch fleas. Lets hope this runs and runs.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 30,271
    edited October 2017
    Roger said:

    Y0kel said:

    Previous thread.

    TimT's suggestion that the forthcoming indictment is against Paul Manafort is fair conclusion. The lack of smoke signals out of the investigations in recent weeks was the warning that they were close to charging someone.

    I did find this a curious article.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/28/trump-assange-bannon-farage-bound-together-in-unholy-alliance

    Many many months ago I said that Farage would turn out not to be uber Brit he was always knocking on to be and he should have been careful what cause he hitched himself to. But most of all, worst of all, remember all those people who thought Julian Assange was such a great guy a little bit back?

    Yeah...

    That's an interesting article. If you sleep with dogs you catch fleas. Lets hope this runs and runs.
    Must have cost a fortune to fumigate bbc hq, ch4 and Guardian towers ....
  • Charming....

    Bim Afolami: Tory MP claims Labour members trying to harass family
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41795333
  • TomsToms Posts: 1,599

    We are all Catalans now(?)

    Nein. Sie sind ein Berliner.
  • malcolmg said:

    Given that we're told that it's a million 'Catalans' protesting against UDI in Barcelona today, Catalunya must be concerned about the numbers of Nazi saluters & Falangists among their population.

    Spanish Tories out in big numbers
    Given the SNP's historical support for the Nazis maybe they are all SNP supporters who retired to Spain.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,760

    Roger said:

    Y0kel said:

    Previous thread.

    TimT's suggestion that the forthcoming indictment is against Paul Manafort is fair conclusion. The lack of smoke signals out of the investigations in recent weeks was the warning that they were close to charging someone.

    I did find this a curious article.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/28/trump-assange-bannon-farage-bound-together-in-unholy-alliance

    Many many months ago I said that Farage would turn out not to be uber Brit he was always knocking on to be and he should have been careful what cause he hitched himself to. But most of all, worst of all, remember all those people who thought Julian Assange was such a great guy a little bit back?

    Yeah...

    That's an interesting article. If you sleep with dogs you catch fleas. Lets hope this runs and runs.
    Must have cost a fortune to fumigate bbc hq, ch4 and Guardian towers ....
    I was thinking more Assange Bannon Farage and last but not least Дональд Трамп
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 30,271
    edited October 2017
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Y0kel said:

    Previous thread.

    TimT's suggestion that the forthcoming indictment is against Paul Manafort is fair conclusion. The lack of smoke signals out of the investigations in recent weeks was the warning that they were close to charging someone.

    I did find this a curious article.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/28/trump-assange-bannon-farage-bound-together-in-unholy-alliance

    Many many months ago I said that Farage would turn out not to be uber Brit he was always knocking on to be and he should have been careful what cause he hitched himself to. But most of all, worst of all, remember all those people who thought Julian Assange was such a great guy a little bit back?

    Yeah...

    That's an interesting article. If you sleep with dogs you catch fleas. Lets hope this runs and runs.
    Must have cost a fortune to fumigate bbc hq, ch4 and Guardian towers ....
    I was thinking more Assange Bannon Farage and last but not least Дональд Трамп
    In recent years, The fawning from the left leaning media over assange was only surpassed by the love in for Obama presidency.

    Some of us have said assange is a wrong'un from day one.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 19,989
    F1: Ricciardo finally gets his new engine, and starts at the back (well, about 15th given other penalties).
  • RogerRoger Posts: 9,760

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Y0kel said:

    Previous thread.

    TimT's suggestion that the forthcoming indictment is against Paul Manafort is fair conclusion. The lack of smoke signals out of the investigations in recent weeks was the warning that they were close to charging someone.

    I did find this a curious article.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/28/trump-assange-bannon-farage-bound-together-in-unholy-alliance

    Many many months ago I said that Farage would turn out not to be uber Brit he was always knocking on to be and he should have been careful what cause he hitched himself to. But most of all, worst of all, remember all those people who thought Julian Assange was such a great guy a little bit back?

    Yeah...

    That's an interesting article. If you sleep with dogs you catch fleas. Lets hope this runs and runs.
    Must have cost a fortune to fumigate bbc hq, ch4 and Guardian towers ....
    I was thinking more Assange Bannon Farage and last but not least Дональд Трамп
    In recent years, The fawning from the left leaning media over assange was only surpassed by the love in for Obama presidency.

    Some of us have said assange is a wrong'un from day one.
    Yes. People like me
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 19,989

    Y0kel said:

    Previous thread.

    TimT's suggestion that the forthcoming indictment is against Paul Manafort is fair conclusion. The lack of smoke signals out of the investigations in recent weeks was the warning that they were close to charging someone.

    I did find this a curious article.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/28/trump-assange-bannon-farage-bound-together-in-unholy-alliance

    Many many months ago I said that Farage would turn out not to be uber Brit he was always knocking on to be and he should have been careful what cause he hitched himself to. But most of all, worst of all, remember all those people who thought Julian Assange was such a great guy a little bit back?

    Yeah...

    Funny how the guardianistas don't seem to be as keen on Julian these days...
    Assange is like Guido, his business is sunlight and revealing information we shouldn’t know. Irrespective of who’s on the receiving end of it.
  • They appear to be singing jezzas song at the hand egg in buffalo....
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,175
    Sandpit said:

    Y0kel said:

    Previous thread.

    TimT's suggestion that the forthcoming indictment is against Paul Manafort is fair conclusion. The lack of smoke signals out of the investigations in recent weeks was the warning that they were close to charging someone.

    I did find this a curious article.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/28/trump-assange-bannon-farage-bound-together-in-unholy-alliance

    Many many months ago I said that Farage would turn out not to be uber Brit he was always knocking on to be and he should have been careful what cause he hitched himself to. But most of all, worst of all, remember all those people who thought Julian Assange was such a great guy a little bit back?

    Yeah...

    Funny how the guardianistas don't seem to be as keen on Julian these days...
    Assange is like Guido, his business is sunlight and revealing information we shouldn’t know. Irrespective of who’s on the receiving end of it.
    Somehow, I'm hoping there is irony in there.

    Assange is an agent of a foreign government that despises Western liberal democracy. Nothing he does is about sunlight at all, its about their orders.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 33,789
    Y0kel said:

    Sandpit said:

    Y0kel said:

    Previous thread.

    TimT's suggestion that the forthcoming indictment is against Paul Manafort is fair conclusion. The lack of smoke signals out of the investigations in recent weeks was the warning that they were close to charging someone.

    I did find this a curious article.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/28/trump-assange-bannon-farage-bound-together-in-unholy-alliance

    Many many months ago I said that Farage would turn out not to be uber Brit he was always knocking on to be and he should have been careful what cause he hitched himself to. But most of all, worst of all, remember all those people who thought Julian Assange was such a great guy a little bit back?

    Yeah...

    Funny how the guardianistas don't seem to be as keen on Julian these days...
    Assange is like Guido, his business is sunlight and revealing information we shouldn’t know. Irrespective of who’s on the receiving end of it.
    Somehow, I'm hoping there is irony in there.

    Assange is an agent of a foreign government that despises Western liberal democracy. Nothing he does is about sunlight at all, its about their orders.

    What about Snowden?
  • Toms said:

    We are all Catalans now(?)

    Nein. Sie sind ein Berliner.
    Berliner - Type of doughnut or newpaper size?
  • TomsToms Posts: 1,599
    edited October 2017

    Toms said:

    We are all Catalans now(?)

    Nein. Sie sind ein Berliner.
    Berliner - Type of doughnut or newpaper size?
    Dunno. Sausage? mebbe doughnut. I never actually looked it up.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,175
    kle4 said:

    Y0kel said:

    Sandpit said:

    Y0kel said:

    Previous thread.

    TimT's suggestion that the forthcoming indictment is against Paul Manafort is fair conclusion. The lack of smoke signals out of the investigations in recent weeks was the warning that they were close to charging someone.

    I did find this a curious article.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/28/trump-assange-bannon-farage-bound-together-in-unholy-alliance

    Many many months ago I said that Farage would turn out not to be uber Brit he was always knocking on to be and he should have been careful what cause he hitched himself to. But most of all, worst of all, remember all those people who thought Julian Assange was such a great guy a little bit back?

    Yeah...

    Funny how the guardianistas don't seem to be as keen on Julian these days...
    Assange is like Guido, his business is sunlight and revealing information we shouldn’t know. Irrespective of who’s on the receiving end of it.
    Somehow, I'm hoping there is irony in there.

    Assange is an agent of a foreign government that despises Western liberal democracy. Nothing he does is about sunlight at all, its about their orders.

    What about Snowden?
    Snowden, despite his denials, passed on his information to at least one foreign intelligence agency. Possibly two have it. Worse, there is evidence that this wasn't some socially concerned snowflake who just happened to end up in the claws of a hostile state. He clearly didn't read his history about how joyful life was for many people who ended up hiding in Moscow under Soviet protection. Life hasn't changed much for such individuals under Putin's Russia.

    Perhaps Assange would explain why he personally suggested that Moscow was a good place for Snowden to go and his assistance in getting him there.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 5,667
    edited October 2017
    Toms said:

    Toms said:

    We are all Catalans now(?)

    Nein. Sie sind ein Berliner.
    Berliner - Type of doughnut or newpaper size?
    Dunno. Sausage? mebbe doughnut. I never actually looked it up.
    Berliner can mean both a type of doughnut or a newspaper size (eg the Guardian is Berliner size)

    Always awkward when you have to explain the joke - as Gove has recently found. :)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 38,779

    Berliner can mean both a type of doughnut or a newspaper size (eg the Guardian is Berliner size)

    Always awkward when you have to explain the joke - as Gove has recently found. :)


    The Guardian and Observer will relaunch in a tabloid format next year as part of a three-year plan to break even in their finances.

    Guardian Media Group (GMG), the parent company of the Guardian and Observer print and digital businesses, has decided to move from its Berliner newspaper format to the smaller size as part of a major cost-saving drive.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 19,989
    Is it just me, or is Anthony Joshua a lay for SPOTY at 1.44. Last night’s fight was a nothing.

    Lewis Hamilton is about to win his 4th world championship, and become the most successful British driver ever. Current Betfair price 9.0.

    Chris Froome is 10.0. Best cyclist in decades.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,354
    edited October 2017
    May formally announcing her resignation at the Tory conference in October 2018 and stating that the actual contest will take place over the summer of 2019 once Brexit has been completed and any outline FTA or transition deal agreed is the most likely bet with the new Tory leader taking over in the autumn when May would formally step down as PM.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Y0kel said:

    Sandpit said:

    Y0kel said:

    Previous thread.

    TimT's suggestion that the forthcoming indictment is against Paul Manafort is fair conclusion. The lack of smoke signals out of the investigations in recent weeks was the warning that they were close to charging someone.

    I did find this a curious article.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/28/trump-assange-bannon-farage-bound-together-in-unholy-alliance

    Many many months ago I said that Farage would turn out not to be uber Brit he was always knocking on to be and he should have been careful what cause he hitched himself to. But most of all, worst of all, remember all those people who thought Julian Assange was such a great guy a little bit back?

    Yeah...

    Funny how the guardianistas don't seem to be as keen on Julian these days...
    Assange is like Guido, his business is sunlight and revealing information we shouldn’t know. Irrespective of who’s on the receiving end of it.
    Somehow, I'm hoping there is irony in there.

    Assange is an agent of a foreign government that despises Western liberal democracy. Nothing he does is about sunlight at all, its about their orders.

    @Sandpit may be interested in this little article on Assange

    https://www.byline.com/column/67/article/1903
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 9,293
    Sandpit said:

    Is it just me, or is Anthony Joshua a lay for SPOTY at 1.44. Last night’s fight was a nothing.

    Lewis Hamilton is about to win his 4th world championship, and become the most successful British driver ever. Current Betfair price 9.0.

    Chris Froome is 10.0. Best cyclist in decades.

    I've been thinking about this for a while, but after last year I'm staying out of this market. I notice Joshua has had a lot of coverage on the BBC recently and now F1 isn't free to air - and not on the BBC - I'm not sure it has quite the power in SPOTY that it used to.

    Froome should win it in my opinion. I assume he will be nominated this time - his absence last year spoke volumes about how the BBC view his achievements - but I doubt he'll get much help from the BBC.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 14,887
    edited October 2017

    Leaving aside the point @AlastairMeeks has just made about possible ambiguity in the event of a coup, I'm not sure that TSE's assessment is very realistic. If Mrs May wants to announce her departure in the second half of 2018, surely she'd make her move earlier so that a new leader can be in place for the Conference? In any case, October 2018 is likely to be right in the middle of a time when Brexit negotiations become fraught, and changing leader then would be exceedingly hard.

    I think the 9/4 on 2019 and later is the value here.

    the United Kingdom will be leaving the European Union in March 2019 and I think shortly after that Mrs May will formally go.
    I agree, but I don't think she'd want a leadership contest to be going on before that date. It would be too damaging to the already fragile Brexit process.
    I can’t see her going then. It will (be portrayed as) a huge victory and I anticipate a big Rule Britannia moment.

    People would find it ludicrous for her to step down at the point when she delivers what the British public voted for.

    IMO she will step down in time for a new leader to be installed for the next election so it's 2021 for me.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 38,779
    HYUFD said:

    the summer of 2019 once Brexit has been completed and any outline FTA or transition deal agreed

    Bless
  • Y0kel said:

    Sandpit said:

    Y0kel said:

    Previous thread.

    TimT's suggestion that the forthcoming indictment is against Paul Manafort is fair conclusion. The lack of smoke signals out of the investigations in recent weeks was the warning that they were close to charging someone.

    I did find this a curious article.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/28/trump-assange-bannon-farage-bound-together-in-unholy-alliance

    Many many months ago I said that Farage would turn out not to be uber Brit he was always knocking on to be and he should have been careful what cause he hitched himself to. But most of all, worst of all, remember all those people who thought Julian Assange was such a great guy a little bit back?

    Yeah...

    Funny how the guardianistas don't seem to be as keen on Julian these days...
    Assange is like Guido, his business is sunlight and revealing information we shouldn’t know. Irrespective of who’s on the receiving end of it.
    Somehow, I'm hoping there is irony in there.

    Assange is an agent of a foreign government that despises Western liberal democracy. Nothing he does is about sunlight at all, its about their orders.

    @Sandpit may be interested in this little article on Assange

    https://www.byline.com/column/67/article/1903
    Byline is not a reputable source.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 33,789
    TOPPING said:

    Leaving aside the point @AlastairMeeks has just made about possible ambiguity in the event of a coup, I'm not sure that TSE's assessment is very realistic. If Mrs May wants to announce her departure in the second half of 2018, surely she'd make her move earlier so that a new leader can be in place for the Conference? In any case, October 2018 is likely to be right in the middle of a time when Brexit negotiations become fraught, and changing leader then would be exceedingly hard.

    I think the 9/4 on 2019 and later is the value here.

    the United Kingdom will be leaving the European Union in March 2019 and I think shortly after that Mrs May will formally go.
    I agree, but I don't think she'd want a leadership contest to be going on before that date. It would be too damaging to the already fragile Brexit process.
    I can’t see her going then. It will (be portrayed as) a huge victory and I anticipate a big Rule Britannia moment.

    People would find it ludicrous for her to step down at the point when she delivers what the British public voted for.

    Not necessarily - it will have been a tough and bitter fight to get to that point, if she makes it that long. Stating it took all she had, and it is time for a new leader to take Britain forward in the new era, is credible.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 9,953
    kle4 said:

    Y0kel said:

    Sandpit said:

    Y0kel said:

    Previous thread.

    TimT's suggestion that the forthcoming indictment is against Paul Manafort is fair conclusion. The lack of smoke signals out of the investigations in recent weeks was the warning that they were close to charging someone.

    I did find this a curious article.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/28/trump-assange-bannon-farage-bound-together-in-unholy-alliance

    Many many months ago I said that Farage would turn out not to be uber Brit he was always knocking on to be and he should have been careful what cause he hitched himself to. But most of all, worst of all, remember all those people who thought Julian Assange was such a great guy a little bit back?

    Yeah...

    Funny how the guardianistas don't seem to be as keen on Julian these days...
    Assange is like Guido, his business is sunlight and revealing information we shouldn’t know. Irrespective of who’s on the receiving end of it.
    Somehow, I'm hoping there is irony in there.

    Assange is an agent of a foreign government that despises Western liberal democracy. Nothing he does is about sunlight at all, its about their orders.

    What about Snowden?
    Snowden loved his job when Bush was president and had a sudden change of heart when a Democrat was in charge.
  • malcolmg said:

    Given that we're told that it's a million 'Catalans' protesting against UDI in Barcelona today, Catalunya must be concerned about the numbers of Nazi saluters & Falangists among their population.

    Spanish Tories out in big numbers
    Given the SNP's historical support for the Nazis maybe they are all SNP supporters who retired to Spain.
    Did anyone ever get to the bottom of the tales of young Nigel singing the Horst Wessel song and ‘gas them all, gas ‘em all, gas them all’?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,354
    Scott_P said:

    HYUFD said:

    the summer of 2019 once Brexit has been completed and any outline FTA or transition deal agreed

    Bless
    Even Barnier has agreed that as the likely route.
  • Sandpit said:

    Is it just me, or is Anthony Joshua a lay for SPOTY at 1.44. Last night’s fight was a nothing.

    Lewis Hamilton is about to win his 4th world championship, and become the most successful British driver ever. Current Betfair price 9.0.

    Chris Froome is 10.0. Best cyclist in decades.

    The days when F1 drivers were likeable have passed. Button got closest I guess, but..
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Y0kel said:

    Sandpit said:

    Y0kel said:

    Previous thread.

    TimT's suggestion that the forthcoming indictment is against Paul Manafort is fair conclusion. The lack of smoke signals out of the investigations in recent weeks was the warning that they were close to charging someone.

    I did find this a curious article.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/28/trump-assange-bannon-farage-bound-together-in-unholy-alliance

    Many many months ago I said that Farage would turn out not to be uber Brit he was always knocking on to be and he should have been careful what cause he hitched himself to. But most of all, worst of all, remember all those people who thought Julian Assange was such a great guy a little bit back?

    Yeah...

    Funny how the guardianistas don't seem to be as keen on Julian these days...
    Assange is like Guido, his business is sunlight and revealing information we shouldn’t know. Irrespective of who’s on the receiving end of it.
    Somehow, I'm hoping there is irony in there.

    Assange is an agent of a foreign government that despises Western liberal democracy. Nothing he does is about sunlight at all, its about their orders.

    @Sandpit may be interested in this little article on Assange

    https://www.byline.com/column/67/article/1903
    Byline is not a reputable source.
    What in the article do you think incorrect?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 30,271
    edited October 2017

    Y0kel said:

    Sandpit said:

    Y0kel said:

    Previous thread.

    TimT's suggestion that the forthcoming indictment is against Paul Manafort is fair conclusion. The lack of smoke signals out of the investigations in recent weeks was the warning that they were close to charging someone.

    I did find this a curious article.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/28/trump-assange-bannon-farage-bound-together-in-unholy-alliance

    Many many months ago I said that Farage would turn out not to be uber Brit he was always knocking on to be and he should have been careful what cause he hitched himself to. But most of all, worst of all, remember all those people who thought Julian Assange was such a great guy a little bit back?

    Yeah...

    Funny how the guardianistas don't seem to be as keen on Julian these days...
    Assange is like Guido, his business is sunlight and revealing information we shouldn’t know. Irrespective of who’s on the receiving end of it.
    Somehow, I'm hoping there is irony in there.

    Assange is an agent of a foreign government that despises Western liberal democracy. Nothing he does is about sunlight at all, its about their orders.

    @Sandpit may be interested in this little article on Assange

    https://www.byline.com/column/67/article/1903
    Byline is not a reputable source.
    What in the article do you think incorrect?
    Byline is not a reputable source having been caught peddling a whole range of nonsense conspiracy theories and publishing other dodgy stories that have been debunked. We don't have the raw data that article is based upon.

    It maybe true, but as a source byline is more Alex Jones than the times.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 14,887
    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leaving aside the point @AlastairMeeks has just made about possible ambiguity in the event of a coup, I'm not sure that TSE's assessment is very realistic. If Mrs May wants to announce her departure in the second half of 2018, surely she'd make her move earlier so that a new leader can be in place for the Conference? In any case, October 2018 is likely to be right in the middle of a time when Brexit negotiations become fraught, and changing leader then would be exceedingly hard.

    I think the 9/4 on 2019 and later is the value here.

    the United Kingdom will be leaving the European Union in March 2019 and I think shortly after that Mrs May will formally go.
    I agree, but I don't think she'd want a leadership contest to be going on before that date. It would be too damaging to the already fragile Brexit process.
    I can’t see her going then. It will (be portrayed as) a huge victory and I anticipate a big Rule Britannia moment.

    People would find it ludicrous for her to step down at the point when she delivers what the British public voted for.

    Not necessarily - it will have been a tough and bitter fight to get to that point, if she makes it that long. Stating it took all she had, and it is time for a new leader to take Britain forward in the new era, is credible.
    I'm just not sure the public would take kindly to another Cons leader stepping down immediately after a momentous milestone.
  • TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leaving aside the point @AlastairMeeks has just made about possible ambiguity in the event of a coup, I'm not sure that TSE's assessment is very realistic. If Mrs May wants to announce her departure in the second half of 2018, surely she'd make her move earlier so that a new leader can be in place for the Conference? In any case, October 2018 is likely to be right in the middle of a time when Brexit negotiations become fraught, and changing leader then would be exceedingly hard.

    I think the 9/4 on 2019 and later is the value here.

    the United Kingdom will be leaving the European Union in March 2019 and I think shortly after that Mrs May will formally go.
    I agree, but I don't think she'd want a leadership contest to be going on before that date. It would be too damaging to the already fragile Brexit process.
    I can’t see her going then. It will (be portrayed as) a huge victory and I anticipate a big Rule Britannia moment.

    People would find it ludicrous for her to step down at the point when she delivers what the British public voted for.

    Not necessarily - it will have been a tough and bitter fight to get to that point, if she makes it that long. Stating it took all she had, and it is time for a new leader to take Britain forward in the new era, is credible.
    I'm just not sure the public would take kindly to another Cons leader stepping down immediately after a momentous milestone.
    I think you are falling into the trap politicos always fall into and that is fighting the last war. More than likely something will happen that shifts the agenda on again, it could literally be a war in Asia or another financial crisis or something really off the wall like the discovery of hostile aliens or a disease that cannot be treated and will lead to mass extinction. As I have noticed when talking to people, Brexit is now in the past as an issue, the process of leaving the EU whilst massive and technical does not really enter into the thinking of most people especially the less enlightened amongst us.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 33,789
    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leaving aside the point @AlastairMeeks has just made about possible ambiguity in the event of a coup, I'm not sure that TSE's assessment is very realistic. If Mrs May wants to announce her departure in the second half of 2018, surely she'd make her move earlier so that a new leader can be in place for the Conference? In any case, October 2018 is likely to be right in the middle of a time when Brexit negotiations become fraught, and changing leader then would be exceedingly hard.

    I think the 9/4 on 2019 and later is the value here.

    the United Kingdom will be leaving the European Union in March 2019 and I think shortly after that Mrs May will formally go.
    I agree, but I don't think she'd want a leadership contest to be going on before that date. It would be too damaging to the already fragile Brexit process.
    I can’t see her going then. It will (be portrayed as) a huge victory and I anticipate a big Rule Britannia moment.

    People would find it ludicrous for her to step down at the point when she delivers what the British public voted for.

    Not necessarily - it will have been a tough and bitter fight to get to that point, if she makes it that long. Stating it took all she had, and it is time for a new leader to take Britain forward in the new era, is credible.
    I'm just not sure the public would take kindly to another Cons leader stepping down immediately after a momentous milestone.
    Not quite the same thing though - Cameron stepped down because he had suffered a major defeat and politically it is doubtful he would have been able to carry on without a challenge, it was the start of a new era; May lost her authority in June, but in this scenario she would be stepping down at the end of an era, once the job was done. And the public might well not take kindly to it, but unless May is able to massively turn things around the public probably won't be looking kindly to May potentially leading Con into the next election anyway.
  • TomsToms Posts: 1,599
    edited October 2017
    Scott_P said:

    Berliner can mean both a type of doughnut or a newspaper size (eg the Guardian is Berliner size)

    Always awkward when you have to explain the joke - as Gove has recently found. :)


    The Guardian and Observer will relaunch in a tabloid format next year as part of a three-year plan to break even in their finances.

    Guardian Media Group (GMG), the parent company of the Guardian and Observer print and digital businesses, has decided to move from its Berliner newspaper format to the smaller size as part of a major cost-saving drive.
    bugger. As a Gradianista I'd prefer that they'd cut down on junk but leave the size. Decent broadsheet size is one thing Murdoch has preserved for the Times. The FT's OK and the New York Times International too.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 6,334

    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leaving aside the point @AlastairMeeks has just made about possible ambiguity in the event of a coup, I'm not sure that TSE's assessment is very realistic. If Mrs May wants to announce her departure in the second half of 2018, surely she'd make her move earlier so that a new leader can be in place for the Conference? In any case, October 2018 is likely to be right in the middle of a time when Brexit negotiations become fraught, and changing leader then would be exceedingly hard.

    I think the 9/4 on 2019 and later is the value here.

    the United Kingdom will be leaving the European Union in March 2019 and I think shortly after that Mrs May will formally go.
    I agree, but I don't think she'd want a leadership contest to be going on before that date. It would be too damaging to the already fragile Brexit process.
    I can’t see her going then. It will (be portrayed as) a huge victory and I anticipate a big Rule Britannia moment.

    People would find it ludicrous for her to step down at the point when she delivers what the British public voted for.

    Not necessarily - it will have been a tough and bitter fight to get to that point, if she makes it that long. Stating it took all she had, and it is time for a new leader to take Britain forward in the new era, is credible.
    I'm just not sure the public would take kindly to another Cons leader stepping down immediately after a momentous milestone.
    I think you are falling into the trap politicos always fall into and that is fighting the last war. More than likely something will happen that shifts the agenda on again, it could literally be a war in Asia or another financial crisis or something really off the wall like the discovery of hostile aliens or a disease that cannot be treated and will lead to mass extinction. As I have noticed when talking to people, Brexit is now in the past as an issue, the process of leaving the EU whilst massive and technical does not really enter into the thinking of most people especially the less enlightened amongst us.
    Hostile aliens or a deadly pandemic would take Brexit off the agenda. Also I agree that people aren't interested in the technical issues, but when they start losing their jobs it may be a different matter.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 21,236

    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leaving aside the point @AlastairMeeks has just made about possible ambiguity in the event of a coup, I'm not sure that TSE's assessment is very realistic. If Mrs May wants to announce her departure in the second half of 2018, surely she'd make her move earlier so that a new leader can be in place for the Conference? In any case, October 2018 is likely to be right in the middle of a time when Brexit negotiations become fraught, and changing leader then would be exceedingly hard.

    I think the 9/4 on 2019 and later is the value here.

    the United Kingdom will be leaving the European Union in March 2019 and I think shortly after that Mrs May will formally go.
    I agree, but I don't think she'd want a leadership contest to be going on before that date. It would be too damaging to the already fragile Brexit process.
    I can’t see her going then. It will (be portrayed as) a huge victory and I anticipate a big Rule Britannia moment.

    People would find it ludicrous for her to step down at the point when she delivers what the British public voted for.

    Not necessarily - it will have been a tough and bitter fight to get to that point, if she makes it that long. Stating it took all she had, and it is time for a new leader to take Britain forward in the new era, is credible.
    I'm just not sure the public would take kindly to another Cons leader stepping down immediately after a momentous milestone.
    I think you are falling into the trap politicos always fall into and that is fighting the last war. More than likely something will happen that shifts the agenda on again, it could literally be a war in Asia or another financial crisis or something really off the wall like the discovery of hostile aliens or a disease that cannot be treated and will lead to mass extinction. As I have noticed when talking to people, Brexit is now in the past as an issue, the process of leaving the EU whilst massive and technical does not really enter into the thinking of most people especially the less enlightened amongst us.
    There is no recession. There is no Brexit slump. I begin to suspect there might not be. e.g. It looks like there might not be any significant damage to London, for instance.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/10/27/ubs-says-threat-moving-1000-jobs-london-unlikely/

    I wonder if Brexit will be the greatest of Dogs That Did Not Bark in The Night.
  • SeanT said:

    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leaving aside the point @AlastairMeeks has just made about possible ambiguity in the event of a coup, I'm not sure that TSE's assessment is very realistic. If Mrs May wants to announce her departure in the second half of 2018, surely she'd make her move earlier so that a new leader can be in place for the Conference? In any case, October 2018 is likely to be right in the middle of a time when Brexit negotiations become fraught, and changing leader then would be exceedingly hard.

    I think the 9/4 on 2019 and later is the value here.

    the United Kingdom will be leaving the European Union in March 2019 and I think shortly after that Mrs May will formally go.
    I agree, but I don't think she'd want a leadership contest to be going on before that date. It would be too damaging to the already fragile Brexit process.
    I can’t see her going then. It will (be portrayed as) a huge victory and I anticipate a big Rule Britannia moment.

    People would find it ludicrous for her to step down at the point when she delivers what the British public voted for.

    Not necessarily - it will have been a tough and bitter fight to get to that point, if she makes it that long. Stating it took all she had, and it is time for a new leader to take Britain forward in the new era, is credible.
    I'm just not sure the public would take kindly to another Cons leader stepping down immediately after a momentous milestone.
    I think you are falling into the trap politicos always fall into and that is fighting the last war. More than likely something will happen that shifts the agenda on again, it could literally be a war in Asia or another financial crisis or something really off the wall like the discovery of hostile aliens or a disease that cannot be treated and will lead to mass extinction. As I have noticed when talking to people, Brexit is now in the past as an issue, the process of leaving the EU whilst massive and technical does not really enter into the thinking of most people especially the less enlightened amongst us.
    There is no recession. There is no Brexit slump. I begin to suspect there might not be. e.g. It looks like there might not be any significant damage to London, for instance.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/10/27/ubs-says-threat-moving-1000-jobs-london-unlikely/

    I wonder if Brexit will be the greatest of Dogs That Did Not Bark in The Night.
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/oct/29/uk-most-attractive-european-country-for-employers-and-staff
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 21,236

    SeanT said:

    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leaving aside the point @AlastairMeeks h

    I think the 9/4 on 2019 and later is the value here.

    the United Kingdom will be leaving the European Union in March 2019 and I think shortly after that Mrs May will formally go.
    I agree, but I don't think she'd want a leadership contest to be going on before that date. It would be too damaging to the already fragile Brexit process.
    I can’t see her going then. It will (be portrayed as) a huge victory and I anticipate a big Rule Britannia moment.

    People would find it ludicrous for her to step down at the point when she delivers what the British public voted for.

    Not necessarily - it will have been a tough and bitter fight to get to that point, if she makes it that long. Stating it took all she had, and it is time for a new leader to take Britain forward in the new era, is credible.
    I'm just not sure the public would take kindly to another Cons leader stepping down immediately after a momentous milestone.
    I think you are fallical does not really enter into the thinking of most people especially the less enlightened amongst us.
    There is no recession. There is no Brexit slump. I begin to suspect there might not be. e.g. It looks like there might not be any significant damage to London, for instance.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/10/27/ubs-says-threat-moving-1000-jobs-london-unlikely/

    I wonder if Brexit will be the greatest of Dogs That Did Not Bark in The Night.
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/oct/29/uk-most-attractive-european-country-for-employers-and-staff
    I saw that.

    I must say, wandering around a sunlit London today (anecdotally) from Greenwich to Kings X, the city felt like a primal force, a huge, peerless wealth-creating machine (stuffed with tourists); it will not easily be dismantled or replaced. It is just so much bigger, grander, more exciting and more attractive than any European rival, as a place to work and live (if you can afford it).

    The idea 1000s of bankers will happily move to Frankfurt is just nuts. This doesn't mean it won't happen, but London still has this incredible momentum.
  • SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leaving aside the point @AlastairMeeks h

    I think the 9/4 on 2019 and later is the value here.

    the United Kingdom will be leaving the European Union in March 2019 and I think shortly after that Mrs May will formally go.
    I agree, but I don't think she'd want a leadership contest to be going on before that date. It would be too damaging to the already fragile Brexit process.
    I can’t see her going then. It will (be portrayed as) a huge victory and I anticipate a big Rule Britannia moment.

    People would find it ludicrous for her to step down at the point when she delivers what the British public voted for.

    Not necessarily - it will have been a tough and bitter fight to get to that point, if she makes it that long. Stating it took all she had, and it is time for a new leader to take Britain forward in the new era, is credible.
    I'm just not sure the public would take kindly to another Cons leader stepping down immediately after a momentous milestone.
    I think you are fallical does not really enter into the thinking of most people especially the less enlightened amongst us.
    There is no recession. There is no Brexit slump. I begin to suspect there might not be. e.g. It looks like there might not be any significant damage to London, for instance.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/10/27/ubs-says-threat-moving-1000-jobs-london-unlikely/

    I wonder if Brexit will be the greatest of Dogs That Did Not Bark in The Night.
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/oct/29/uk-most-attractive-european-country-for-employers-and-staff
    I saw that.

    I must say, wandering around a sunlit London today (anecdotally) from Greenwich to Kings X, the city felt like a primal force, a huge, peerless wealth-creating machine (stuffed with tourists); it will not easily be dismantled or replaced. It is just so much bigger, grander, more exciting and more attractive than any European rival, as a place to work and live (if you can afford it).

    The idea 1000s of bankers will happily move to Frankfurt is just nuts. This doesn't mean it won't happen, but London still has this incredible momentum.
    If you have money, London is hard to beat.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 33,789
    SeanT said:

    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leaving aside the point @AlastairMeeks has just made about possible ambiguity in the event of a coup, I'm not sure that TSE's assessment is very realistic. If Mrs May wants to announce her departure in the second half of 2018, surely she'd make her move earlier so that a new leader can be in place for the Conference? In any case, October 2018 is likely to be right in the middle of a time when Brexit negotiations become fraught, and changing leader then would be exceedingly hard.

    I think the 9/4 on 2019 and later is the value here.

    the United Kingdom will be leaving the European Union in March 2019 and I think shortly after that Mrs May will formally go.
    I agree, but I don't think she'd want a leadership contest to be going on before that date. It would be too damaging to the already fragile Brexit process.
    I can’t see her going then. It will (be portrayed as) a huge victory and I anticipate a big Rule Britannia moment.

    People would find it ludicrous for her to step down at the point when she delivers what the British public voted for.

    Not necessarily - it will have been a tough and bitter fight to get to that point, if she makes it that long. Stating it took all she had, and it is time for a new leader to take Britain forward in the new era, is credible.
    I'm just not sure the public would take kindly to another Cons leader stepping down immediately after a momentous milestone.
    I think you are falling into the trap politicos always fall into and that is fighting the last war. More than likely something will happen that shifts the agenda on again, it could literally be a war in Asia or another financial crisis or something really off the wall like the discovery of hostile aliens or a disease that cannot be treated and will lead to mass extinction. As I have noticed when talking to people, Brexit is now in the past as an issue, the process of leaving the EU whilst massive and technical does not really enter into the thinking of most people especially the less enlightened amongst us.
    There is no recession. There is no Brexit slump.
    That's good, so far, although even if there is no latter, there will be a former at some point, economic inevitability and all that.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 21,236
    edited October 2017

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leaving aside the point @AlastairMeeks h

    I think the 9/4 on 2019 and later is the value here.

    the United Kingdom will be leaving the European Union in March 2019 and I think shortly after that Mrs May will formally go.
    I agree, but I don't think she'd want a leadership contest to be going on before that date. It would be too damaging to the already fragile Brexit process.
    I can’t see her going then. It will (be portrayed as) a huge victory and I anticipate a big Rule Britannia moment.

    People would find it ludicrous for her to step down at the point when she delivers what the British public voted for.

    Not necessarily - it will have been a tough and bitter fight to get to that point, if she makes it that long. Stating it took all she had, and it is time for a new leader to take Britain forward in the new era, is credible.
    I'm just not sure the public would take kindly to another Cons leader stepping down immediately after a momentous milestone.
    I think you are fallical does not really enter into the thinking of most people especially the less enlightened amongst us.
    There is no recession. There is no Brexit slump. I begin to suspect there might not be. e.g. It looks like there might not be any significant damage to London, for instance.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/10/27/ubs-says-threat-moving-1000-jobs-london-unlikely/

    I wonder if Brexit will be the greatest of Dogs That Did Not Bark in The Night.
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/oct/29/uk-most-attractive-european-country-for-employers-and-staff
    I saw that.

    I must say, wandering around a sunlit London today (anecdotally) from Greenwich to Kings X, the city felt like a primal force, a huge, peerless wealth-creating machine (stuffed with tourists); it will not easily be dismantled or replaced. It is just so much bigger, grander, more exciting and more attractive than any European rival, as a place to work and live (if you can afford it).

    The idea 1000s of bankers will happily move to Frankfurt is just nuts. This doesn't mean it won't happen, but London still has this incredible momentum.
    If you have money, London is hard to beat.
    If you have youth, London is hard to beat. Indeed impossible.

    London is shit if you are older, poorer or you have kids, or all three.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 12,737
    edited October 2017
    Toms said:

    Scott_P said:

    Berliner can mean both a type of doughnut or a newspaper size (eg the Guardian is Berliner size)

    Always awkward when you have to explain the joke - as Gove has recently found. :)


    The Guardian and Observer will relaunch in a tabloid format next year as part of a three-year plan to break even in their finances.

    Guardian Media Group (GMG), the parent company of the Guardian and Observer print and digital businesses, has decided to move from its Berliner newspaper format to the smaller size as part of a major cost-saving drive.
    bugger. As a Gradianista I'd prefer that they'd cut down on junk but leave the size. Decent broadsheet size is one thing Murdoch has preserved for the Times. The FT's OK and the New York Times International too.
    The Times went tabloid 13 years ago!

    Broadsheet was actually a hangover from the stamp tax, where you paid the duty by the sheet. That ended in 1855. Tabloid is more user friendly and cheaper which is why it's generally more popular.

    As it happens I like Berliner format too but I can see the logic of going tabloid.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 12,737
    edited October 2017
    SeanT said:

    If you have youth, London is hard to beat. Indeed impossible.

    London is shit if you are older, poorer or you have kids, or all three.

    Can I just say I've always hated London? It's smelly, dirty, noisy, crowded, ridiculously expensive, mostly very ugly and there's nothing worth doing in the evenings that you can't do better elsewhere if you don't happen to like theatres. And I did spend a lot of time there doing research and editing in a whole variety of archives and offices, so it's not just that I don't know it very well.

    I'm perfectly aware that millions of other people love it, for a huge variety of reasons. That's fine, and I'm happy for them. It would be a very dull world if we were all alike. But it's a bit much to say a la Johnson that it's unbeatable.

    Most of my friends went to London on graduating, but it's amazing how quickly even the most enthused left unless they had to stay for work. I only know of one who stayed because she liked it, out of about 10 (again, small sample size). One of the others freely admitted he only went there at all because it was the residence of lots of young women.

    For myself, I was often asked what my favourite place in London was. I would always reply, 'that big blue sign saying 'Reading: The West: M4.''
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,190
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leaving aside the point @AlastairMeeks h

    I think the 9/4 on 2019 and later is the value here.

    the United Kingdom will be leaving the European Union in March 2019 and I think shortly after that Mrs May will formally go.
    I agree, but I don't think she'd want a leadership contest to be going on before that date. It would be too damaging to the already fragile Brexit process.

    Not necessarily - it will have been a tough and bitter fight to get to that point, if she makes it that long. Stating it took all she had, and it is time for a new leader to take Britain forward in the new era, is credible.
    I'm just not sure the public would take kindly to another Cons leader stepping down immediately after a momentous milestone.
    I think you are fallical does not really enter into the thinking of most people especially the less enlightened amongst us.
    There is no recession. There is no Brexit slump. I begin to suspect there might not be. e.g. It looks like there might not be any significant damage to London, for instance.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/10/27/ubs-says-threat-moving-1000-jobs-london-unlikely/

    I wonder if Brexit will be the greatest of Dogs That Did Not Bark in The Night.
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/oct/29/uk-most-attractive-european-country-for-employers-and-staff
    I saw that.

    I must say, wandering around a sunlit London today (anecdotally) from Greenwich to Kings X, the city felt like a primal force, a huge, peerless wealth-creating machine (stuffed with tourists); it will not easily be dismantled or replaced. It is just so much bigger, grander, more exciting and more attractive than any European rival, as a place to work and live (if you can afford it).

    The idea 1000s of bankers will happily move to Frankfurt is just nuts. This doesn't mean it won't happen, but London still has this incredible momentum.
    If you have money, London is hard to beat.
    If you have youth, London is hard to beat. Indeed impossible.

    London is shit if you are older, poorer or you have kids, or all three.
    In the end, your experience of London is determined by money and property.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 21,236
    ydoethur said:

    SeanT said:

    If you have youth, London is hard to beat. Indeed impossible.

    London is shit if you are older, poorer or you have kids, or all three.

    Can I just say I've always hated London? It's smelly, dirty, noisy, crowded, ridiculously expensive, mostly very ugly and there's nothing worth doing in the evenings that you can't do better elsewhere if you don't happen to like theatres. And I did spend a lot of time there doing research and editing in a whole variety of archives and offices, so it's not just that I don't know it very well.

    I'm perfectly aware that millions of other people love it, for a huge variety of reasons. That's fine, and I'm happy for them. It would be a very dull world if we were all alike. But it's a bit much to say a la Johnson that it's unbeatable.

    Most of my friends went to London on graduating, but it's amazing how quickly even the most enthused left unless they had to stay for work. I only know of one who stayed because she liked it, out of about 10 (again, small sample size). One of the others freely admitted he only went there at all because it was the residence of lots of young women.

    For myself, I was often asked what my favourite place in London was. I would always reply, 'that big blue sign saying 'Reading: The West: M4.''
    Chacun a son gout, of course

    But there is a reason London is consistently voted the most connected, exciting, dynamic, desirable and touristically popular city on earth.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/london-named-most-popular-city-in-the-world-10294402.html

    That said, I often wonder how I would feel about London if I was much poorer, and even older, and I had to commute every day to a pretty shit job. I would probably, begrudgingly, admire the city its attractions, and simultaneously be desperate to move elsewhere.

    London is a city for the young or the rich, or the very comfortably retired.
  • BBC 'walk out' fears as stars in tears overtax changes. At last the BBC are getting rid of service companies and making presenters pay 40% and 45% tax rates like everyone else.

    Not a scrap of sympathy for any of them
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 21,236

    BBC 'walk out' fears as stars in tears overtax changes. At last the BBC are getting rid of service companies and making presenters pay 40% and 45% tax rates like everyone else.

    Not a scrap of sympathy for any of them

    Me neither. I am self employed, I have no "service company", I pay 45% like every high earner.

    Fuck 'em.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 21,557
    SeanT said:

    ydoethur said:

    SeanT said:

    If you have youth, London is hard to beat. Indeed impossible.

    London is shit if you are older, poorer or you have kids, or all three.

    Can I just say I've always hated London? It's smelly, dirty, noisy, crowded, ridiculously expensive, mostly very ugly and there's nothing worth doing in the evenings that you can't do better elsewhere if you don't happen to like theatres. And I did spend a lot of time there doing research and editing in a whole variety of archives and offices, so it's not just that I don't know it very well.

    I'm perfectly aware that millions of other people love it, for a huge variety of reasons. That's fine, and I'm happy for them. It would be a very dull world if we were all alike. But it's a bit much to say a la Johnson that it's unbeatable.

    Most of my friends went to London on graduating, but it's amazing how quickly even the most enthused left unless they had to stay for work. I only know of one who stayed because she liked it, out of about 10 (again, small sample size). One of the others freely admitted he only went there at all because it was the residence of lots of young women.

    For myself, I was often asked what my favourite place in London was. I would always reply, 'that big blue sign saying 'Reading: The West: M4.''
    Chacun a son gout, of course

    But there is a reason London is consistently voted the most connected, exciting, dynamic, desirable and touristically popular city on earth.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/london-named-most-popular-city-in-the-world-10294402.html

    That said, I often wonder how I would feel about London if I was much poorer, and even older, and I had to commute every day to a pretty shit job. I would probably, begrudgingly, admire the city its attractions, and simultaneously be desperate to move elsewhere.

    London is a city for the young or the rich, or the very comfortably retired.
    When I go back to London, I love it. I love the sights, the sounds, and the very essence of the city. This might be because I generally visit the touristy areas in the middle of the day.

    However, if I'm unlucky enough to go back in rush hour and experience the sights, sounds and smells of the rush-hour tube, I realise why I left.


  • There is no recession. There is no Brexit slump. I begin to suspect there might not be. e.g. It looks like there might not be any significant damage to London, for instance.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/10/27/ubs-says-threat-moving-1000-jobs-london-unlikely/

    I wonder if Brexit will be the greatest of Dogs That Did Not Bark in The Night.

    Yes, I remember the "millennium bug" anxiety and that never happened but I suppose it all depends on the deal or no deal situation. I think of Nigel Lawson and his comments on no deal and am reassured as he created the taxation structure in the 80s that has pretty much stayed in place since then so he must have good judgement on economics. Not at all convinced on his views on climate change however!

    The good thing about the UK is we still have our own monetary policy and so any shock can be accommodated and ameliorated. Thank goodness we never joined the Euro as the UK would probably be in the same sort of funk as Italy economically. I still think Brexit is a mistake and am concerned for those who might become redundant particularly in the car industry. The balance of trade and payments in the UK is truly shocking and has deteriorated substantially since around 1997 and a major closure i.e. Nissan or Honda may result in more German imports and loss of market share to companies based in Britain.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 12,737

    BBC 'walk out' fears as stars in tears overtax changes. At last the BBC are getting rid of service companies and making presenters pay 40% and 45% tax rates like everyone else.

    Not a scrap of sympathy for any of them

    Please let all the stars walk out.

    Then we could get competent people in and pay them sensible salaries on which they pay full tax.

    Win, win, win.

    (And apart from anything else, it would be funnier than Tom Baker on HIGNFY.)
  • BBC 'walk out' fears as stars in tears overtax changes. At last the BBC are getting rid of service companies and making presenters pay 40% and 45% tax rates like everyone else.

    Not a scrap of sympathy for any of them

    The bbc said they were doing this several years ago....I feel it will be like the constant plans to reduce head counts.
  • ydoethur said:

    BBC 'walk out' fears as stars in tears overtax changes. At last the BBC are getting rid of service companies and making presenters pay 40% and 45% tax rates like everyone else.

    Not a scrap of sympathy for any of them

    Please let all the stars walk out.

    Then we could get competent people in and pay them sensible salaries on which they pay full tax.

    Win, win, win.

    (And apart from anything else, it would be funnier than Tom Baker on HIGNFY.)
    How on earth can Marr earn £400,000 pa. - 2,271 ordinary people paying their licence fee for just his salary
  • Good grand prix
  • ydoethur said:

    BBC 'walk out' fears as stars in tears overtax changes. At last the BBC are getting rid of service companies and making presenters pay 40% and 45% tax rates like everyone else.

    Not a scrap of sympathy for any of them

    Please let all the stars walk out.

    Then we could get competent people in and pay them sensible salaries on which they pay full tax.

    Win, win, win.

    (And apart from anything else, it would be funnier than Tom Baker on HIGNFY.)
    How on earth can Marr earn £400,000 pa. - 2,271 ordinary people paying their licence fee for just his salary
    Nolan, the graveyard shift presenter on R5 makes more than that....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 12,737

    ydoethur said:

    BBC 'walk out' fears as stars in tears overtax changes. At last the BBC are getting rid of service companies and making presenters pay 40% and 45% tax rates like everyone else.

    Not a scrap of sympathy for any of them

    Please let all the stars walk out.

    Then we could get competent people in and pay them sensible salaries on which they pay full tax.

    Win, win, win.

    (And apart from anything else, it would be funnier than Tom Baker on HIGNFY.)
    How on earth can Marr earn £400,000 pa. - 2,271 ordinary people paying their licence fee for just his salary
    Nolan, the graveyard shift presenter on R5 makes more than that....
    I'll bet he made more on The Dark Knight Rises though :smiley:

    Good night everyone.
  • ydoethur said:

    BBC 'walk out' fears as stars in tears overtax changes. At last the BBC are getting rid of service companies and making presenters pay 40% and 45% tax rates like everyone else.

    Not a scrap of sympathy for any of them

    Please let all the stars walk out.

    Then we could get competent people in and pay them sensible salaries on which they pay full tax.

    Win, win, win.

    (And apart from anything else, it would be funnier than Tom Baker on HIGNFY.)
    How on earth can Marr earn £400,000 pa. - 2,271 ordinary people paying their licence fee for just his salary
    Nolan, the graveyard shift presenter on R5 makes more than that....
    Whats an extra £50,000 when it comes to the BBC's largesse
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 46,354
    edited October 2017
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leaving aside the point @AlastairMeeks h

    I think the 9/4 on 2019 and later is the value here.

    the United Kingdom will be leaving the European Union in March 2019 and I think shortly after that Mrs May will formally go.
    I agree, but I don't think she'd want a leadership contest to be going on before that date. It would be too damaging to the already fragile Brexit process.
    I can’t see her going then. It will (be

    Not nece.
    I'm just not sure the public would take kindly to another Cons leader stepping down immediately after a momentous milestone.
    I think you are fallical does not really enter into the thinking of most people especially the less enlightened amongst us.
    There is no .
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/oct/29/uk-most-attractive-european-country-for-employers-and-staff
    I saw that.

    I must say, wandering around a sunlit London today (anecdotally) from Greenwich to Kings X, the city felt like a primal force, a huge, peerless wealth-creating machine (stuffed with tourists); it will not easily be dismantled or replaced. It is just so much bigger, grander, more exciting and more attractive than any European rival, as a place to work and live (if you can afford it).

    The idea 1000s of bankers will happily move to Frankfurt is just nuts. This doesn't mean it won't happen, but London still has this incredible momentum.
    If you have money, London is hard to beat.
    If you have youth, London is hard to beat. Indeed impossible.

    London is shit if you are older, poorer or you have kids, or all three.
    London is a city you live in and work in and rent in when you are young and in your twenties and early thirties and a city you move out of to the suburbs or home counties when you are married with kids in middle age but still commute to work to to pay the mortgage.

    That is the case with most major developed cities, New York, Paris, Chicago, LA, Tokyo etc the inner city is dominated by the young and very wealthy, everyone else just sees it as the location for work they commute in from the suburbs and beyond every weekday.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 23,462
    There is going to be a horrendous UK recession at some point in the near future.

    The British economy of 2017 resembles the Spanish one of 2007. The government is running a deficit, household savings rate are at the lowest since records began, and we run a massive current account deficit.

    Back in 1997, the UK's foreign assets were bigger than its liabilities by 70% of GDP. That's inverted.

    Blithely saying "there's not going to be a recession" is a little bit like thinking that you're rich because your credit cards are still working.

    The UK economy is the most unbalanced in the world. Winter is coming, and it's going to be ugly.
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,190
    ydoethur said:

    SeanT said:

    If you have youth, London is hard to beat. Indeed impossible.

    London is shit if you are older, poorer or you have kids, or all three.

    Can I just say I've always hated London? It's smelly, dirty, noisy, crowded, ridiculously expensive, mostly very ugly and there's nothing worth doing in the evenings that you can't do better elsewhere if you don't happen to like theatres. And I did spend a lot of time there doing research and editing in a whole variety of archives and offices, so it's not just that I don't know it very well.

    I'm perfectly aware that millions of other people love it, for a huge variety of reasons. That's fine, and I'm happy for them. It would be a very dull world if we were all alike. But it's a bit much to say a la Johnson that it's unbeatable.

    Most of my friends went to London on graduating, but it's amazing how quickly even the most enthused left unless they had to stay for work. I only know of one who stayed because she liked it, out of about 10 (again, small sample size). One of the others freely admitted he only went there at all because it was the residence of lots of young women.

    For myself, I was often asked what my favourite place in London was. I would always reply, 'that big blue sign saying 'Reading: The West: M4.''
    From 2002 to 2006 London was a great place to live. It was also affordable. £800 a month for a 2 bed flat in Stoke Newington. It was way ahead of any other place in the UK in terms of culture and stuff to do. Brick Lane and Shoreditch felt like genuinely radical places.

    After about 2010 it became prohibitively expensive. Also, other parts of the UK became more appealing for young people. You can now get craft beers anywhere. There is a brewdog pub in Folkestone of all places.

    Living in London just isn't an option unless you are in your 20's with a decent job and happy to spend 50% of your income on a room in a shared house. Even then, you can't afford to do much at the weekends.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 21,236
    rcs1000 said:

    There is going to be a horrendous UK recession at some point in the near future.

    The British economy of 2017 resembles the Spanish one of 2007. The government is running a deficit, household savings rate are at the lowest since records began, and we run a massive current account deficit.

    Back in 1997, the UK's foreign assets were bigger than its liabilities by 70% of GDP. That's inverted.

    Blithely saying "there's not going to be a recession" is a little bit like thinking that you're rich because your credit cards are still working.

    The UK economy is the most unbalanced in the world. Winter is coming, and it's going to be ugly.

    Whinger
  • rcs1000 said:

    There is going to be a horrendous UK recession at some point in the near future.

    The British economy of 2017 resembles the Spanish one of 2007. The government is running a deficit, household savings rate are at the lowest since records began, and we run a massive current account deficit.

    Back in 1997, the UK's foreign assets were bigger than its liabilities by 70% of GDP. That's inverted.

    Blithely saying "there's not going to be a recession" is a little bit like thinking that you're rich because your credit cards are still working.

    The UK economy is the most unbalanced in the world. Winter is coming, and it's going to be ugly.

    At some point interest rates have to rise back to historic norms...Whoever is in charge when that happens is going to have one hell of a time.
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,094
    SeanT said:

    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leaving aside the point @AlastairMeeks has just made about possible ambiguity in the event of a coup, I'm not sure that TSE's assessment is very realistic. If Mrs May wants to announce her departure in the second half of 2018, surely she'd make her move earlier so that a new leader can be in place for the Conference? In any case, October 2018 is likely to be right in the middle of a time when Brexit negotiations become fraught, and changing leader then would be exceedingly hard.

    I think the 9/4 on 2019 and later is the value here.

    ay will formally go.
    I agree, but I don't think she'd want a leadership contest to be going on before that date. It would be too damaging to the already fragile Brexit process.
    I can’t see her going then. It will (be portrayed as) a huge victory and I anticipate a big Rule Britannia moment.

    People would find it ludicrous for her to step down at the point when she delivers what the British public voted for.

    Not necessarily - it will have been a tough and bitter fight to get to that point, if she makes it that long. Stating it took all she had, and it is time for a new leader to take Britain forward in the new era, is credible.
    I'm just not sure the public would take kindly to another Cons leader stepping down immediately after a momentous milestone.
    I think you are falling into the trap politicos always fall into and that is fighting the last war. More than likely something will happen that shifts the agenda on again, it could literally be a war in Asia or another financial crisis or something really off the wall like the discovery of hostile aliens or a disease that cannot be treated and will lead to mass extinction. As I have noticed when talking to people, Brexit is now in the past as an issue, the process of leaving the EU whilst massive and technical does not really enter into the thinking of most people especially the less enlightened amongst us.
    There is no recession. There is no Brexit slump. I begin to suspect there might not be. e.g. It looks like there might not be any significant damage to London, for instance.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/10/27/ubs-says-threat-moving-1000-jobs-london-unlikely/

    I wonder if Brexit will be the greatest of Dogs That Did Not Bark in The Night.
    Meanwhile brexychosis reaches new heights of delirium.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/28/leftie-yes-and-proud-to-be-upholding-enlightenment-values
  • Lewis four times world champion
This discussion has been closed.