Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The great Alabama polling Gamble. Robo calls v human interview

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited December 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The great Alabama polling Gamble. Robo calls v human interviewers

RCP

Read the full story here


«134

Comments

  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,743
    Is there a futures market on how long (number of days) Theresa May will remain in office? I guess it has been swinging up and down frenziedly in the last week or two, with an exit date anything between 2017 and late 2019.
  • This race is working out kind of weird

  • There might be Moore to this story than meets the eye.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 8,684
    The only thing certain is that no one has a clue on this race - the pollsters admit as much quite explicitly - so Mr S is quite right to conclude that a Democrat win is the value bet. That doesn't mean it will happen, of course.

    Oh, one thing is pretty certain - Moore is an inveterate liar:
    http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2017/12/roy_moore_s_deceit_is_disqualifying.html
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 8,684
    Meanwhile Trump indelibly associates himself with a likely abuser of teens:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-42314410

    As the White House argues that an election victory absolves you of all crimes:
    https://www.politico.com/story/2017/12/11/trump-accusers-sexual-harassment-289309
    Which is an argument fit for a banana republic.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 20,037
    The pollsters admit they don’t have a clue on this one, anything could happen. Jones is probably the value bet, but can’t be bothered with this one myself.

    A Jones win makes the Senate 51-49, which if the retiring John McCain keeps up his independence makes for a few interesting votes next year.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 12,855
    When do we get the result?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 20,037

    When do we get the result?

    Polling stations close at 7pm local (1am UK time), they’re usually pretty quick at counting, we should have the result within an hour or so.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 23,591
    I'll take a punt on Jones. Fox News polls are usually prett good.
  • This race is working out kind of weird

    What does that matter? He could have EATEN children and shitkickers will still think the most important thing to vote for is tax cuts to the rich and removal of their healthcare.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 12,855
    BBC is reporting US ambassador to UK saying that Trump will visit us next year. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-42319018

    New Year job; start making ‘welcome’ placards. Or something!!!!
  • BBC is reporting US ambassador to UK saying that Trump will visit us next year. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-42319018

    New Year job; start making ‘welcome’ placards. Or something!!!!

    I'm struggling to see any advantage we'd get from that.

    Even if everything went perfectly he could turn on the head of a pin just a few days after and do something very much not in our mutual best interests.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 22,190
    "Labour clears MP Clive Lewis of sexual harassment"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42318625

    Has Ms Chakrabarti been busy?

    This is a problem that her hideous inquiry has caused: such an obvious whitewash will mean that all other 'inquiries' by the Labour party will be seen in the same manner. Sadly for the accused and the accusers, and especially the truth.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 12,855

    BBC is reporting US ambassador to UK saying that Trump will visit us next year. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-42319018

    New Year job; start making ‘welcome’ placards. Or something!!!!

    I'm struggling to see any advantage we'd get from that.

    Even if everything went perfectly he could turn on the head of a pin just a few days after and do something very much not in our mutual best interests.
    Given the feeling about him I think he could turn quicker than that. Noisy demos around him, even on his way to the palace, might cause him to leave early, in a huff.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 20,037

    BBC is reporting US ambassador to UK saying that Trump will visit us next year. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-42319018

    New Year job; start making ‘welcome’ placards. Or something!!!!

    I'm struggling to see any advantage we'd get from that.

    Even if everything went perfectly he could turn on the head of a pin just a few days after and do something very much not in our mutual best interests.
    Quite. Unless there’s a major deal to announce between the two countries, the story will be that the President is in town and lots of people are unhappy about it.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 21,073
    In 1983, Louisiana Governor Edwin Edwards quipped to reporters "The only way I can lose this election is if I'm caught in bed with either a dead girl or a live boy".

    This race is becoming the living embodiment of that quip. Just what does it take to break tribal politics in America?

    Maybe it is time for the Democrats to quietly suggest he likes pineapple on his pizza...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 36,422
    Nigelb said:

    The only thing certain is that no one has a clue on this race - the pollsters admit as much quite explicitly - so Mr S is quite right to conclude that a Democrat win is the value bet. That doesn't mean it will happen, of course.

    Oh, one thing is pretty certain - Moore is an inveterate liar:
    http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2017/12/roy_moore_s_deceit_is_disqualifying.html

    And a terrible judge, and probably a terrible senator.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 36,422

    BBC is reporting US ambassador to UK saying that Trump will visit us next year. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-42319018

    New Year job; start making ‘welcome’ placards. Or something!!!!

    I'm struggling to see any advantage we'd get from that.

    Even if everything went perfectly he could turn on the head of a pin just a few days after and do something very much not in our mutual best interests.
    We've already invited him, we're stuck. Macron managed it, so can we.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 21,073
    Maybe somebody got fed the wrong name on who was going to be cleared of suggestions of sexually inappropriate conduct?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42318625
  • Shy bigots?
    "Moore — who has been accused of pursuing teenage girls while in his 30s — leads in most polls conducted via automated telephone interviews or online, in which respondents don’t have to interact with another human being to complete the survey."
    https://www.politico.com/story/2017/12/11/alabama-senate-moore-jones-polls-290501
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 21,073
    I've just received an e-mail with "the first quarterly newsletter" from the people who empty my septic tank.

    It's official: the internet has now gone too far.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 14,127

    I've just received an e-mail with "the first quarterly newsletter" from the people who empty my septic tank.

    It's official: the internet has now gone too far.

    Is it full of shit?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 21,073
    ydoethur said:

    I've just received an e-mail with "the first quarterly newsletter" from the people who empty my septic tank.

    It's official: the internet has now gone too far.

    Is it full of shit?
    I don't even want to open it and have a look....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 20,037
    ydoethur said:

    I've just received an e-mail with "the first quarterly newsletter" from the people who empty my septic tank.

    It's official: the internet has now gone too far.

    Is it full of shit?
    The internet is one big septic tank.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 14,127

    ydoethur said:

    I've just received an e-mail with "the first quarterly newsletter" from the people who empty my septic tank.

    It's official: the internet has now gone too far.

    Is it full of shit?
    I don't even want to open it and have a look....
    The tank or the letter? :lol:
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 23,967
    I suspect Alabama will go 52:48 for Moore, and I will rip up my (very small) Jones betslip, and say to myself "great value loser, rcs1000".

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 14,127
    edited December 2017
    O/T but does anyone have an anatomically correct male brass monkey I could borrow?

    I have formulated a hypothesis and now I want to test it.

    Edit - I have also just seen someone trying to take a Vauxhall Astra up a 1 in 8.

    It did not end well...
  • felixfelix Posts: 8,177

    I've just received an e-mail with "the first quarterly newsletter" from the people who empty my septic tank.

    It's official: the internet has now gone too far.

    Dump :) in the crap folder?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 23,967

    Shy bigots?
    "Moore — who has been accused of pursuing teenage girls while in his 30s — leads in most polls conducted via automated telephone interviews or online, in which respondents don’t have to interact with another human being to complete the survey."
    https://www.politico.com/story/2017/12/11/alabama-senate-moore-jones-polls-290501

    That's the most likely explanation. But there are others:

    Are women, for example, less likely to answer robocalls?
    Or older voters?
    Or African Americans?

    I don't know the answer to the question, but it would be interesting to see if robocalls tended to show bigger Republican vote shares in NJ/Virginia, for instance.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 20,998
    rcs1000 said:

    I suspect Alabama will go 52:48 for Moore, and I will rip up my (very small) Jones betslip, and say to myself "great value loser, rcs1000".

    Do you really talk to yourself in the third person?

    That's like Caesar Plus
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 23,967
    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I suspect Alabama will go 52:48 for Moore, and I will rip up my (very small) Jones betslip, and say to myself "great value loser, rcs1000".

    Do you really talk to yourself in the third person?

    That's like Caesar Plus
    Yes we do.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 18,262
    Germans complaining the country comes to a stop because of a bit of snow

    http://plus.faz.net/unternehmen/2017-12-12/still-und-starr-ruht-der-verkehr/90867.html
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 23,591

    In 1983, Louisiana Governor Edwin Edwards quipped to reporters "The only way I can lose this election is if I'm caught in bed with either a dead girl or a live boy".

    This race is becoming the living embodiment of that quip. Just what does it take to break tribal politics in America?

    Maybe it is time for the Democrats to quietly suggest he likes pineapple on his pizza...

    Roy Moore would surely lose if it was revealed that he had a boyfriend, or had voted for Hillary Clinton.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 8,684
    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I suspect Alabama will go 52:48 for Moore, and I will rip up my (very small) Jones betslip, and say to myself "great value loser, rcs1000".

    Do you really talk to yourself in the third person?

    That's like Caesar Plus
    Yes we do.
    Caesar Plus sounds more like a wannabe upmarket dogfood....

    ... just saying.
  • Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Brooke, not the first time the Germans have got bogged down in the snow, to their great consternation.

    Interesting article on so-called 'skin betting':
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-42311533

    The gaming industry disputes that it's gambling, I believe.

    I saw a video recently indicating that one publisher has applied for a patent for a system whereby if you're killed in multiplayer you're informed if your killer had a better weapon, and the same publisher has apparently applied for a patent to enable matchmaking that deliberately matches players wildly different in level and equipment. In short, it's aiming to maximise envy to get you to spend on virtual items (so-called 'pay to win').

    I play videogames but never multiplayer, so this doesn't affect me directly at all, but I do think it's quite concerning.

    Of course, lots of money has been shovelled into games before. I forget the title, might be EVE Online, but some virtual space battles have destroyed literally hundreds of thousands of pounds' worth of spacecraft, if not millions'.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 10,372


    Maybe it is time for the Democrats to quietly suggest he likes pineapple on his pizza...

    That's just code for child molestation so no effect.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 10,372
    rcs1000 said:

    I suspect Alabama will go 52:48 for Moore, and I will rip up my (very small) Jones betslip, and say to myself "great value loser, rcs1000".

    I've cashed out for a free bet on Jones. On reflection after last year I am sick of good value losers on American politics.
  • Mr. Alistair, "On reflection after last year I am sick of good value losers..." reminds me quite a bit of my 2017 F1 season bets...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 23,967

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Brooke, not the first time the Germans have got bogged down in the snow, to their great consternation.

    Interesting article on so-called 'skin betting':
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-42311533

    The gaming industry disputes that it's gambling, I believe.

    I saw a video recently indicating that one publisher has applied for a patent for a system whereby if you're killed in multiplayer you're informed if your killer had a better weapon, and the same publisher has apparently applied for a patent to enable matchmaking that deliberately matches players wildly different in level and equipment. In short, it's aiming to maximise envy to get you to spend on virtual items (so-called 'pay to win').

    I play videogames but never multiplayer, so this doesn't affect me directly at all, but I do think it's quite concerning.

    Of course, lots of money has been shovelled into games before. I forget the title, might be EVE Online, but some virtual space battles have destroyed literally hundreds of thousands of pounds' worth of spacecraft, if not millions'.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 48,396
    edited December 2017
    2 new polls yesterday, 1 for Survey Monkey gave Jones a 2 point lead while the other from Change Research gave Moore a 6 point lead.

    Turnout is key, Democrats appear more motivated than Republicans and that could give the edge to Jones especially if there is high minority turnout. On a normal special election turnout Moore should win
  • Mr. 1000, I used to visit the Escapist, and watch Zero Punctuation, regularly, but it's been a while.

    Do enjoy his review style. I think the only one he got wrong was when he completely missed the point with The Last Of Us.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Brooke, not the first time the Germans have got bogged down in the snow, to their great consternation.

    Interesting article on so-called 'skin betting':
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-42311533

    The gaming industry disputes that it's gambling, I believe.

    I saw a video recently indicating that one publisher has applied for a patent for a system whereby if you're killed in multiplayer you're informed if your killer had a better weapon, and the same publisher has apparently applied for a patent to enable matchmaking that deliberately matches players wildly different in level and equipment. In short, it's aiming to maximise envy to get you to spend on virtual items (so-called 'pay to win').

    I play videogames but never multiplayer, so this doesn't affect me directly at all, but I do think it's quite concerning.

    Of course, lots of money has been shovelled into games before. I forget the title, might be EVE Online, but some virtual space battles have destroyed literally hundreds of thousands of pounds' worth of spacecraft, if not millions'.

    I don’t think he’s a fan. Then again, that tends to be his style.
  • Mr. Teacher, it's rare for him to praise anything. He was partly nice about Dragon's Dogma and liked XCOM: Enemy Unknown and Portal, but (from memory, maybe he's become nice in the last couple of years) that's about it.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 23,967

    Mr. 1000, I used to visit the Escapist, and watch Zero Punctuation, regularly, but it's been a while.

    Do enjoy his review style. I think the only one he got wrong was when he completely missed the point with The Last Of Us.

    He's become a little bit of a parody of himself, and has a tendency to ramp up the gratuitous swearing just to get laughs. Still, one of the better reviewers out there.
  • Mr. 1000, well, he's been doing it for a while.

    And in a world where YouTubers cement their heads inside microwaves, I think he's probably still the right side of sane :p
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 23,249
    Why has May not called another election on the back of the Yougov? Is she frit?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 23,967

    Mr. Teacher, it's rare for him to praise anything. He was partly nice about Dragon's Dogma and liked XCOM: Enemy Unknown and Portal, but (from memory, maybe he's become nice in the last couple of years) that's about it.

    He liked Doom. (Which, by the way, is rather good fun on the Switch.)
  • Mr. 1000, I don't play FPS games and don't have a Switch :p

    I've heard good things about Doom elsewhere too, though.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 23,249
    Those tempted to bet on Jones should really read this: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/11/opinion/roy-moore-alabama-senate-voter-suppression.html

    It seems tens of thousands of those highly motivated black voters may not be eligible.

    Its democracy Jim, but not as we know it (thank god).
  • Sean_F said:

    In 1983, Louisiana Governor Edwin Edwards quipped to reporters "The only way I can lose this election is if I'm caught in bed with either a dead girl or a live boy".

    This race is becoming the living embodiment of that quip. Just what does it take to break tribal politics in America?

    Maybe it is time for the Democrats to quietly suggest he likes pineapple on his pizza...

    Roy Moore would surely lose if it was revealed that he had a boyfriend, or had voted for Hillary Clinton.
    No, he would get away with the boyfriend bit.
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469

    "Labour clears MP Clive Lewis of sexual harassment"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42318625

    Has Ms Chakrabarti been busy?

    This is a problem that her hideous inquiry has caused: such an obvious whitewash will mean that all other 'inquiries' by the Labour party will be seen in the same manner. Sadly for the accused and the accusers, and especially the truth.

    Whereas if Damien Green is cleared, it's a case of those lying cops trying to dirty the reputation of a decent and honest Tory.......
  • ydoethur said:

    I've just received an e-mail with "the first quarterly newsletter" from the people who empty my septic tank.

    It's official: the internet has now gone too far.

    Is it full of shit?
    Shit just got real!
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    DavidL said:

    Why has May not called another election on the back of the Yougov? Is she frit?

    Hasn't had time to go for a walk through the Welsh hills yet, give her time....
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    DavidL said:

    Those tempted to bet on Jones should really read this: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/11/opinion/roy-moore-alabama-senate-voter-suppression.html

    It seems tens of thousands of those highly motivated black voters may not be eligible.

    Its democracy Jim, but not as we know it (thank god).

    This is Alabama. I don't think grooming teenage girls is considered that bad there.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Interesting map of the worlds pharma exports:



  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 21,073
    DavidL said:

    Why has May not called another election on the back of the Yougov? Is she frit?

    Still mulling over manifesto ideas - on how to piss off the core vote.....
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 960
    edited December 2017

    Mr. Teacher, it's rare for him to praise anything. He was partly nice about Dragon's Dogma and liked XCOM: Enemy Unknown and Portal, but (from memory, maybe he's become nice in the last couple of years) that's about it.

    He liked Witcher 3 and is a big fan of Dark Souls.
  • Mr. Teacher, the Witcher 3 is fantastic (also, they're making a new Witcher TV series, apparently).

    Hmm. It might have been Demon's Souls [the first game], but I recall Zero Punctuation ragging on it quite a bit.
  • I've had a lot of days off this year for cancer treatment and recovering from general anaesthetics and I have spent more hours than I care to think playing through Witcher 3. Great game both visually and from a storytelling perspective.
  • Interesting map of the worlds pharma exports:



    Belgium doing well.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 21,073

    Interesting map of the worlds pharma exports:



    Belgium doing well.
    And Ireland not too shabby...
  • Interesting map of the worlds pharma exports:



    Belgium doing well.
    Are those re-exports through Rotterdam? I'm assuming Rotterdam is in Belgium.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 23,967

    Interesting map of the worlds pharma exports:



    I'm amazed how little the US exports.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 2,911

    DavidL said:

    Why has May not called another election on the back of the Yougov? Is she frit?

    Still mulling over manifesto ideas - on how to piss off the core vote.....
    Tory voters: "We support the party that makes hard decisions, and is for sound money, unlike the moon-on-a-stick Labourites"

    May: "Social care is collapsing and wealthy voters need to pay more"

    Tory voters: ".....we didn't mean like that, though"
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 21,073
    rcs1000 said:

    Interesting map of the worlds pharma exports:



    I'm amazed how little the US exports.
    Would you buy their crystal meth?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 10,052

    This race is working out kind of weird

    I think he got caught between the parable of the sower and the parable of the prodigal son.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 48,396
    DavidL said:

    Those tempted to bet on Jones should really read this: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/11/opinion/roy-moore-alabama-senate-voter-suppression.html

    It seems tens of thousands of those highly motivated black voters may not be eligible.

    Its democracy Jim, but not as we know it (thank god).

    If they voted last November I expect they will be able to vote today but even a 100% black turnout would not be enough for Jones to win given they largely vote Democrat anyway.

    If Jones wins it will be white female and young and independent voters who will be decisive
  • Mr. Teacher, hope you're fully recovered.

    And I agree entirely on The Witcher 3. It's an outstandingly good game, the only drawback being it makes my fat PS4 scream like a jet engine at times.

    Between it and The Last Of Us, I'm wondering if the secret ingredient to gaming excellence is a surrogate father-daughter relationship.
  • BBC is reporting US ambassador to UK saying that Trump will visit us next year. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-42319018

    New Year job; start making ‘welcome’ placards. Or something!!!!

    Million Man Mooning
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 10,593
    On Topic RMICISFA
  • HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    Those tempted to bet on Jones should really read this: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/11/opinion/roy-moore-alabama-senate-voter-suppression.html

    It seems tens of thousands of those highly motivated black voters may not be eligible.

    Its democracy Jim, but not as we know it (thank god).

    If they voted last November I expect they will be able to vote today but even a 100% black turnout would not be enough for Jones to win given they largely vote Democrat anyway.

    If Jones wins it will be white female and young and independent voters who will be decisive
    Do they largely vote Democrat anyway? Or do they largely not vote?
  • Interesting map of the worlds pharma exports:



    Belgium doing well.
    And Ireland not too shabby...
    I wonder how much due to the low corp tax rate.....
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 23,967

    Interesting map of the worlds pharma exports:



    Belgium doing well.
    Are those re-exports through Rotterdam? I'm assuming Rotterdam is in Belgium.
    It's in the Netherlands.

    I can't think of any big Belgian pharmaceutical companies (Solvay?), so I presume there tax advantages to manufacturing drugs in the country.
  • Interesting map of the worlds pharma exports:



    Belgium doing well.
    Are those re-exports through Rotterdam? I'm assuming Rotterdam is in Belgium.
    Good job your handle isn't "Jograffy_Teacher"!
  • Interesting map of the worlds pharma exports:



    I'm struggling to find Columbia on that graphic ...
  • stodgestodge Posts: 4,559
    Morning all :)

    Well, as might have been expected given the torrent of triumphalism on Saturday (anyone would think getting a deal on Friday was timed for the weekend press), May's and the Conservatives' numbers have moved a little higher in the new polling.

    My view remains, for all the furore, the Devil remains in the detail. We have to pay at least £35 billion, maybe £40 billion and I suspect a great deal more to the EU that won't come into the public domain. We remain effectively members until April 2021 though politically we will have departed two years previously and will be completely impotent by-standers.

    The Irish border question is the classic example of kicking the empty can of Guinness down the road. A fudge to satisfy the DUP leaves a lot of practical questions unresolved. Perhaps one of the more contentious areas will be the right for spouses (and other family members ?) of EU nationals currently resident here to come while it seems EU nationals will remain eligible for child benefit which seems a little odd given the determination of the LEAVE campaign to ensure the benefits system in the UK wasn't abused.

    Good to see "criminality checks" being introduced for new arrivals but presumably the criminals already here will be fine until they are caught and presumably deported.

    Is it a good deal ? In parts, yes, and like all negotiations we have gained in some areas and conceded in others. Naturally, those elements supporting the Government have accentuated the "wins" and not said very much at all about the concessions and the compromises. That might explain the froth and the triumphalist euphoria - it's easy to tell a nice story with a happy ending - much harder to tell the whole story including the less palatable elements,
  • Mr. Teacher, hope you're fully recovered.

    And I agree entirely on The Witcher 3. It's an outstandingly good game, the only drawback being it makes my fat PS4 scream like a jet engine at times.

    Between it and The Last Of Us, I'm wondering if the secret ingredient to gaming excellence is a surrogate father-daughter relationship.

    It’s the attention to detail that particularly impressed me: for example, when it rains the locals will rush for cover until it passes.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 48,396
    edited December 2017

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    Those tempted to bet on Jones should really read this: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/11/opinion/roy-moore-alabama-senate-voter-suppression.html

    It seems tens of thousands of those highly motivated black voters may not be eligible.

    Its democracy Jim, but not as we know it (thank god).

    If they voted last November I expect they will be able to vote today but even a 100% black turnout would not be enough for Jones to win given they largely vote Democrat anyway.

    If Jones wins it will be white female and young and independent voters who will be decisive
    Do they largely vote Democrat anyway? Or do they largely not vote?
    90%+ of the black vote normally votes Democrat, Obama got it over 95%.

    The key shift in the state is the white vote, Jones is getting about a third of the white vote in Alabama whereas only about 10 to 15% of the white vote in Alabama went for Obama and Hillary
  • rcs1000 said:

    Interesting map of the worlds pharma exports:



    I'm amazed how little the US exports.
    Thinking about it I suspect one issue is that European states likely export to other European countries while American States likely sell lots to other American States but those aren't classed as exports.

    If intra-EU trade was reclassified as not being exports then I suspect the graphic might look very different.
  • Interesting map of the worlds pharma exports:



    Belgium doing well.
    Are those re-exports through Rotterdam? I'm assuming Rotterdam is in Belgium.
    Good job your handle isn't "Jograffy_Teacher"!
    I’m rubbish on capital cities in pub quizzes too. I was thinking of Antwerp.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Interesting map of the worlds pharma exports:



    I'm amazed how little the US exports.
    Thinking about it I suspect one issue is that European states likely export to other European countries while American States likely sell lots to other American States but those aren't classed as exports.

    If intra-EU trade was reclassified as not being exports then I suspect the graphic might look very different.
    Indeed. it's like the old one about Americans not having passports. Well you don't really need one when your country is the size of the EU.
  • Mr. Thompson, interesting suggestion.

    Mr. Teacher, the music's excellent too, particularly the Skellige theme.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 10,052
    edited December 2017
    OT. Just when you think Brexit is going to carry us to that magic money tree in the sky along come the yanks to douse us in reality.....

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/12/no-deal-brexit-cost-everyone-uk-1585-us-thinktank
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 48,396
    edited December 2017

    rcs1000 said:

    Interesting map of the worlds pharma exports:



    I'm amazed how little the US exports.
    Thinking about it I suspect one issue is that European states likely export to other European countries while American States likely sell lots to other American States but those aren't classed as exports.

    If intra-EU trade was reclassified as not being exports then I suspect the graphic might look very different.
    Indeed. it's like the old one about Americans not having passports. Well you don't really need one when your country is the size of the EU.
    Yes, the percentage of Americans who have travelled outside the USA is not miles behind the percentage of Britains who have travelled outside Europe and those who do go abroad are most likely to have been to Canada or Mexico. 48% of Americans have not been outside the USA, 60% have not been outside North America and 28% have been to Europe. 44% of Britain's have been to North America

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/11/21/british-people-far-more-well-travelled-americans/
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 40,253
    @georgeeaton: Inflation up to 3.1% (highest since 2012). UK has the lowest growth and highest inflation of any major EU economy.

    Despite Brexit...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 21,073
    calum said:
    Anything on his views on the EU after.....?
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    Those tempted to bet on Jones should really read this: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/11/opinion/roy-moore-alabama-senate-voter-suppression.html

    It seems tens of thousands of those highly motivated black voters may not be eligible.

    Its democracy Jim, but not as we know it (thank god).

    If they voted last November I expect they will be able to vote today but even a 100% black turnout would not be enough for Jones to win given they largely vote Democrat anyway.

    If Jones wins it will be white female and young and independent voters who will be decisive
    Do they largely vote Democrat anyway? Or do they largely not vote?
    90%+ of the black vote normally votes Democrat, Obama got it over 95%.

    The key shift in the state is the white vote, Jones is getting about a third of the white vote in Alabama whereas only about 10 to 15% of the white vote in Alabama went for Obama and Hillary
    There's 90% turnout for black voters normally? Obama got 95% turnout? That's incredible in a nation with an average of 54.9% turnout for Obama's re-election in 2012.

    Or maybe you didn't read what I wrote correctly.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Interesting map of the worlds pharma exports:



    I'm amazed how little the US exports.

    A lot of US drugs and medicines are manufactured outside the US, aren't they? Is there a single indigenous Irish pharma company? But look at the exports coming out of there. I suspect the German number is so high because its big pharma companies - Bayer, Merck & Schering, etc - also do a lot of their production in Germany.

  • Mr. Thompson, interesting suggestion.

    Mr. Teacher, the music's excellent too, particularly the Skellige theme.

    I also spent a lot of time playing Gwent.

    In-game music can make a huge difference to a game. Skyrim and Dragons Age Inquisition both have great music too, often diegetic.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 20,998
    rcs1000 said:

    Interesting map of the worlds pharma exports:



    I'm amazed how little the US exports.
    FDA GMP standards are different to EU GMP and it is very expensive to have a plant that is compliant with both regimes (big pharma does it, but most sane people have a regional manufacturing strategy).

    Ireland's manufacturing is driven by being the location of choice for US biological manufacturing. Belgium is Takeda (Solvay) and UCB.

    Germany is Bayer, Boehringer and Merck.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 48,396
    edited December 2017

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    Those tempted to bet on Jones should really read this: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/11/opinion/roy-moore-alabama-senate-voter-suppression.html

    It seems tens of thousands of those highly motivated black voters may not be eligible.

    Its democracy Jim, but not as we know it (thank god).

    If they voted last November I expect they will be able to vote today but even a 100% black turnout would not be enough for Jones to win given they largely vote Democrat anyway.

    If Jones wins it will be white female and young and independent voters who will be decisive
    Do they largely vote Democrat anyway? Or do they largely not vote?
    90%+ of the black vote normally votes Democrat, Obama got it over 95%.

    The key shift in the state is the white vote, Jones is getting about a third of the white vote in Alabama whereas only about 10 to 15% of the white vote in Alabama went for Obama and Hillary
    There's 90% turnout for black voters normally? Obama got 95% turnout? That's incredible in a nation with an average of 54.9% turnout for Obama's re-election in 2012.

    Or maybe you didn't read what I wrote correctly.
    As I said black turnout is not going to decisively change this race, the white vote, especially the female white vote will do but be pedantic if you wish
  • Impressive how this BBC news article on rising inflation manages not to say what the rate was before (or how large the increase is):
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42320052
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    Those tempted to bet on Jones should really read this: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/11/opinion/roy-moore-alabama-senate-voter-suppression.html

    It seems tens of thousands of those highly motivated black voters may not be eligible.

    Its democracy Jim, but not as we know it (thank god).

    If they voted last November I expect they will be able to vote today but even a 100% black turnout would not be enough for Jones to win given they largely vote Democrat anyway.

    If Jones wins it will be white female and young and independent voters who will be decisive
    Do they largely vote Democrat anyway? Or do they largely not vote?
    90%+ of the black vote normally votes Democrat, Obama got it over 95%.

    The key shift in the state is the white vote, Jones is getting about a third of the white vote in Alabama whereas only about 10 to 15% of the white vote in Alabama went for Obama and Hillary
    There's 90% turnout for black voters normally? Obama got 95% turnout? That's incredible in a nation with an average of 54.9% turnout for Obama's re-election in 2012.

    Or maybe you didn't read what I wrote correctly.
    As I said black turnout is not going to decisively change this race, the white vote, especially the female white vote will do but be pedantic if you wish
    Not decisively alone but your claim that blacks already vote decisively for Democrats so there's no room for improvement isn't correct - they largely don't vote at all. If they turnout for Jones that will make a significant difference.

    Given the dominance of the GOP in Alabama there will need to be many significant differences for Jones to win and that is but one piece in the puzzle but it shouldn't be ignored or dismissed.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Interesting map of the worlds pharma exports:



    I'm amazed how little the US exports.

    A lot of US drugs and medicines are manufactured outside the US, aren't they? Is there a single indigenous Irish pharma company? But look at the exports coming out of there. I suspect the German number is so high because its big pharma companies - Bayer, Merck & Schering, etc - also do a lot of their production in Germany.

    Schering doesn't exist more as it was bought up by Bayer. The other major German pharma players are Boehringer Ingelheim and Merck Serono.

    One thing to bear in mind is that the volume of exports will depend on the therapy areas each company is focusing on. Something like ibuprofen will be high volume, low margin while a rare cancer drug will be low volume, high margin
  • Mr. Teacher, not sure whether it's out or in beta, but there's a 'full' Gwent card game. I think it's going to be free.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 10,052
    edited December 2017
    calum said:
    The same David Laws who publicised a private note to him from Liam Byrne? Not the sort of bloke to share a confidence with really.....

    .....though if you fancy making a few quid on your expenses nudge nudge wink wink

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 48,396
    edited December 2017

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    Those tempted to bet on Jones should really read this: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/11/opinion/roy-moore-alabama-senate-voter-suppression.html

    It seems tens of thousands of those highly motivated black voters may not be eligible.

    Its democracy Jim, but not as we know it (thank god).

    If they voted last November I expect they will be able to vote today but even a 100% black turnout would not be enough for Jones to win given they largely vote Democrat anyway.

    If Jones wins it will be white female and young and independent voters who will be decisive
    Do they largely vote Democrat anyway? Or do they largely not vote?
    90%+ of the black vote normally votes Democrat, Obama got it over 95%.

    The key shift in the state is the white vote, Jones is getting about a third of the white vote in Alabama whereas only about 10 to 15% of the white vote in Alabama went for Obama and Hillary
    There's 90% turnout for black voters normally? Obama got 95% turnout? That's incredible in a nation with an average of 54.9% turnout for Obama's re-election in 2012.

    Or maybe you didn't read what I wrote correctly.
    As I said black turnout is not going to decisively change this race, the white vote, especially the female white vote will do but be pedantic if you wish
    Not decisively alone but your claim that blacks already vote decisively for Democrats so there's no room for improvement isn't correct - they largely don't vote at all. If they turnout for Jones that will make a significant difference.

    Given the dominance of the GOP in Alabama there will need to be many significant differences for Jones to win and that is but one piece in the puzzle but it shouldn't be ignored or dismissed.
    In 2012 black turnout exceeded white turnout, so wrong.

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/in-2012-black-voter-turnout-surpassed-white-turnout/

    Romney still won Alabama by a 23% margin over Obama

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Alabama,_2012
This discussion has been closed.