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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The real problem for TMay from last night’s vote could be when

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  • stevef said:

    tlg86 said:

    "1.9% above the 50% threshold" - so that would be 3.8% ahead of the other side.

    Very mischievous spinning of the numbers by OGH!

    Nah. Mischievous spinning would be:

    "...you can hear the argument developing that the Leave victory, which only 37.5% of registered voters supported, does not have the same democratic legitimacy as has been suggested."
    Nah, 65.3% didn't vote to remain in the EU. ;)
    See how disingenuous the remainers are. They take those who chose not to vote and decide to allocate them to the remain camp.
    There is a case, with major constitutional changes, for the argument that a majority of registered voters need to vote for it... after all if you can't be arsed to vote, you do not really feel strongly about the need for change.

    But it's all academic as far as Brexit is concerned - too late now. And at least this way Farage becomes an irrelevance!
    I am afraid I am firmly of the opinion that if you can't be bothered to get out and vote you don't deserve to have your non-vote counted.
    This opinion may be a tad idealistic, but if you are genuinely uncertain about which way to vote there is an argument for not voting and trusting your fellow citizens/subjects to vote on your behalf - an argument which does not damn non-voters as being apathetic and uninterested.

    This argument is still in favour of only a simple majority being required, rather than any tricksy turnout threshold (which is in any case made a nonsense of by people who are registered at more than one address entirely legitimately for local elections, but who cannot vote multiple times in a national election).
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 2,016
    Y0kel said:

    Trumpton:

    There is an expectation of something very notable dropping before Christmas as regards the whole Russia-related investigation.

    Perhaps it will be some kind of Russian leak.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 6,299
    Langworthy (Salford) result:

    LAB: 58.0% (+8.9)
    CON: 17.7% (+11.2)
    LDEM: 12.1% (+12.1)
    GRN: 6.9% (+1.0)
    IND: 5.3% (+5.3)

    Labour HOLD.

    No UKIP (-25.2) and other Ind (-11.3) as prev.
  • Barnsley’s Rockingham is a Labour hold
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 18,155
    edited December 2017
    Yorkcity said:

    tlg86 said:

    Does this affect to people living in Scotland or people employed by Scottish based organisations ?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-42358527

    Living in Scotland, apparently. Sky News were interviewing people working for a fish packing company some of whom live in England and some who live in Scotland.
    The interview was from Eyemouth with one worker, living in Eyemouth and the other in Berwick. The Eyemouth worker and the boss were not impressed
    Well they voted for devolution as did the Welsh.You have to accept the result of the referendum.
    Shockingly this seems to be what the majority of Scottish voters wanted.

  • Yorkcity said:

    tlg86 said:

    Does this affect to people living in Scotland or people employed by Scottish based organisations ?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-42358527

    Living in Scotland, apparently. Sky News were interviewing people working for a fish packing company some of whom live in England and some who live in Scotland.
    The interview was from Eyemouth with one worker, living in Eyemouth and the other in Berwick. The Eyemouth worker and the boss were not impressed
    Well they voted for devolution as did the Welsh.You have to accept the result of the referendum.
    Making such minor changes to taxation rates looks very much like trying to cause deliberate aggravation.
  • Yorkcity said:

    tlg86 said:

    Does this affect to people living in Scotland or people employed by Scottish based organisations ?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-42358527

    Living in Scotland, apparently. Sky News were interviewing people working for a fish packing company some of whom live in England and some who live in Scotland.
    The interview was from Eyemouth with one worker, living in Eyemouth and the other in Berwick. The Eyemouth worker and the boss were not impressed
    Well they voted for devolution as did the Welsh.You have to accept the result of the referendum.
    Shockingly this seems to be what the majority of Scottish voters wanted.

    The framing on those questions is interesting.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited December 2017
    SNP predict their tax rises will raise LESS than previous year. No more funds for services - All about bashing the middle class.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 44,318
    TGOHF said:

    SNP predict their tax rises will raise LESS than previous year. No more funds for services - All about bashing the middle class.

    Seriously? :o
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited December 2017
    TGOHF said:

    SNP predict their tax rises will raise LESS than previous year. No more funds for services - All about bashing the middle class.

    Surely you mean easing the tax burden on those earning less than £33,000?
  • Wigan - Shevington ward

    Lab 765 43.4% (+3.4)
    Shevington Ind 552 31.3% (+5)
    Con 402 22.8% (+11.5)
    Grn 30 1.7% (-1.9)
    LD 15 0.9%

    Lab hold

  • Newcastle under Lyme - Newchapel

    Con 216
    Lab 197
    Ind 86

    Con gain from Lab
  • Newcastle under Lyme - Bradwell

    Lab 396
    Con 360
    LD 25

    Lab hold

  • Yorkcity said:

    tlg86 said:

    Does this affect to people living in Scotland or people employed by Scottish based organisations ?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-42358527

    Living in Scotland, apparently. Sky News were interviewing people working for a fish packing company some of whom live in England and some who live in Scotland.
    The interview was from Eyemouth with one worker, living in Eyemouth and the other in Berwick. The Eyemouth worker and the boss were not impressed
    Well they voted for devolution as did the Welsh.You have to accept the result of the referendum.
    Of course
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    kyf_100 said:

    Y0kel said:

    Trumpton:

    There is an expectation of something very notable dropping before Christmas as regards the whole Russia-related investigation.

    Perhaps it will be some kind of Russian leak.
    Some people would have you believe big ears are an unattractive feature. Future news may prove that wrong.
  • stevef said:

    tlg86 said:

    "1.9% above the 50% threshold" - so that would be 3.8% ahead of the other side.

    Very mischievous spinning of the numbers by OGH!

    Nah. Mischievous spinning would be:

    "...you can hear the argument developing that the Leave victory, which only 37.5% of registered voters supported, does not have the same democratic legitimacy as has been suggested."
    Nah, 65.3% didn't vote to remain in the EU. ;)
    See how disingenuous the remainers are. They take those who chose not to vote and decide to allocate them to the remain camp.
    There is a case, with major constitutional changes, for the argument that a majority of registered voters need to vote for it... after all if you can't be arsed to vote, you do not really feel strongly about the need for change.

    But it's all academic as far as Brexit is concerned - too late now. And at least this way Farage becomes an irrelevance!
    I am afraid I am firmly of the opinion that if you can't be bothered to get out and vote you don't deserve to have your non-vote counted.
    This opinion may be a tad idealistic, but if you are genuinely uncertain about which way to vote there is an argument for not voting and trusting your fellow citizens/subjects to vote on your behalf - an argument which does not damn non-voters as being apathetic and uninterested.

    This argument is still in favour of only a simple majority being required, rather than any tricksy turnout threshold (which is in any case made a nonsense of by people who are registered at more than one address entirely legitimately for local elections, but who cannot vote multiple times in a national election).
    I think I would be more sympathetic to that view (and I am not in any way really arguing against it) if the undecided at least turned up and spoiled their paper. That is a positive statement of either indecision or disgust at the whole process. Just not bothering is another matter.
  • sladeslade Posts: 883
    Lib Dems hold Watcombe (Torbay)


  • If these start to be upheld then you can hear the argument developing that the Leave victory, by 1.9% above the 50% threshold, does not have the same democratic legitimacy as has been suggested.


    However TM did fight the election on a Leave manifesto.

    As did Labour, for that matter. At least on a manifesto that said that the will of the people would be respected and that Brexit was going to happen regardless.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 5,528

    Newcastle under Lyme - Bradwell

    Lab 396
    Con 360
    LD 25

    Lab hold

    Just.

    Lab -3.1%
    Con +27.4%
  • RobDRobD Posts: 44,318
    MikeL said:

    Newcastle under Lyme - Bradwell

    Lab 396
    Con 360
    LD 25

    Lab hold

    Just.

    Lab -3.1%
    Con +27.4%
    Not a bad night for team blue.
  • sladeslade Posts: 883
    Lib Dem hold in Handside
  • sladeslade Posts: 883
    slade said:

    Lib Dem hold in Handside

    This is an amazing result. The Conservatives have usually won this ward recently. The Lib Dems best result this century is a win by 50 votes. They have won tonight with a majority of over 400.
  • tysontyson Posts: 5,526
    It's quite obvious that with these local elections the "oooooh Jeremy Corbyn......"voters cannot be arsed to vote. They have better things to doing like make quinoa, or something like that.
  • tysontyson Posts: 5,526
    slade said:

    slade said:

    Lib Dem hold in Handside

    This is an amazing result. The Conservatives have usually won this ward recently. The Lib Dems best result this century is a win by 50 votes. They have won tonight with a majority of over 400.

    I really do not think that you can read anything into any of these results . I couldn't be arsed to vote in this kind of election and I am at the sadder end of political anoraks...and I really couldn't give a flying fuck.....
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 32,001
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/mueller-sought-emails-of-trump-campaign-data-firm-1513296899

    Special Counsel Robert Mueller has requested that Cambridge Analytica, a data firm that worked for President Donald Trump’s campaign, turn over documents as part of its investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. election, according to people familiar with the matter.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,562
    edited December 2017
    TGOHF said:

    Nicky Morgan getting flayed alive on QT. Delicious.

    QT tonight came from Knowsley, the safest Labour seat in the country in absolute terms where Labour got an astonishing 85% of the vote in June and the Tories just 9%. Indeed it currently has the biggest majority of 42,214 for any MP, not just Labour and in fact is so overwhelmingly Labour Corbyn's party won it by even more in June than John Major won Huntingdon in 1992 (previously the biggest majority for any party since universal suffrage).

    So hardly a surprise Morgan had a hard time.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knowsley_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 4,553

    Yorkcity said:

    tlg86 said:

    Does this affect to people living in Scotland or people employed by Scottish based organisations ?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-42358527

    Living in Scotland, apparently. Sky News were interviewing people working for a fish packing company some of whom live in England and some who live in Scotland.
    The interview was from Eyemouth with one worker, living in Eyemouth and the other in Berwick. The Eyemouth worker and the boss were not impressed
    Well they voted for devolution as did the Welsh.You have to accept the result of the referendum.
    Shockingly this seems to be what the majority of Scottish voters wanted.

    This seems very much like the type of policy that May will appropriate for the next GE.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,562
    edited December 2017
    Dura_Ace said:

    Yorkcity said:

    tlg86 said:

    Does this affect to people living in Scotland or people employed by Scottish based organisations ?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-42358527

    Living in Scotland, apparently. Sky News were interviewing people working for a fish packing company some of whom live in England and some who live in Scotland.
    The interview was from Eyemouth with one worker, living in Eyemouth and the other in Berwick. The Eyemouth worker and the boss were not impressed
    Well they voted for devolution as did the Welsh.You have to accept the result of the referendum.
    Shockingly this seems to be what the majority of Scottish voters wanted.

    This seems very much like the type of policy that May will appropriate for the next GE.
    They support higher earners paying more tax but themselves paying the same or less tax, what a surprise
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 33,856
    edited December 2017


    image

    I keep seeing comments on PB.com, and the wider MSM, about the EU Referendum being a close result, with the implication that it was the closest referendum result in human history, and that because it was such a narrow win for LEAVE, that somehow that made the result illegitimate. Perhaps I exaggerate with the previous sentence, but you know what I mean!
    [..]
    The result was LEAVE 52%, REMAIN 48%. Or, for fans of decimal points, LEAVE 51.9%, REMAIN 48.1%, on a turnout of 72.2%. The nearest-run thing indeed!

    Or was it? Have there been any referendums with closer results? Were they regarded as illegitimate? Or did the aforementioned results result in sour grapes from the losing side? Perhaps, unsurprisingly, I can give you two relatively recent (ie. within the last 20-ish years) referendum results that were much closer.


    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/10/18/the-nearest-run-thing/
  • Ally_BAlly_B Posts: 181



    image

    I keep seeing comments on PB.com, and the wider MSM, about the EU Referendum being a close result, with the implication that it was the closest referendum result in human history, and that because it was such a narrow win for LEAVE, that somehow that made the result illegitimate. Perhaps I exaggerate with the previous sentence, but you know what I mean!
    [..]
    The result was LEAVE 52%, REMAIN 48%. Or, for fans of decimal points, LEAVE 51.9%, REMAIN 48.1%, on a turnout of 72.2%. The nearest-run thing indeed!

    Or was it? Have there been any referendums with closer results? Were they regarded as illegitimate? Or did the aforementioned results result in sour grapes from the losing side? Perhaps, unsurprisingly, I can give you two relatively recent (ie. within the last 20-ish years) referendum results that were much closer.


    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/10/18/the-nearest-run-thing/

    I don't think there is a suggestion that the other two referendum results were distorted by Russian money/influence and a total disregard for spending limits?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 25,211
    What would the Ashes be, without yet another spectacular middle-order batting collapse from England?
  • Ally_B said:



    image

    I keep seeing comments on PB.com, and the wider MSM, about the EU Referendum being a close result, with the implication that it was the closest referendum result in human history, and that because it was such a narrow win for LEAVE, that somehow that made the result illegitimate. Perhaps I exaggerate with the previous sentence, but you know what I mean!
    [..]
    The result was LEAVE 52%, REMAIN 48%. Or, for fans of decimal points, LEAVE 51.9%, REMAIN 48.1%, on a turnout of 72.2%. The nearest-run thing indeed!

    Or was it? Have there been any referendums with closer results? Were they regarded as illegitimate? Or did the aforementioned results result in sour grapes from the losing side? Perhaps, unsurprisingly, I can give you two relatively recent (ie. within the last 20-ish years) referendum results that were much closer.


    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/10/18/the-nearest-run-thing/

    I don't think there is a suggestion that the other two referendum results were distorted by Russian money/influence and a total disregard for spending limits?
    There was an undercurrent of, shall we say, “moaning” from the losing side, mostly to do with what exactly constituted spoilt ballots, as well as some campaign funding grumbles, though to this date there has NOT been a third referendum, and Quebec has remained part of Canada and the Commonwealth.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 25,211
    edited December 2017
    And we’re all out. 35 runs for the last SIX wickets. Shambles.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 25,383

    Yorkcity said:

    kle4 said:

    daodao said:

    Is Brexit now holed below the waterline?

    No - all the conservative party accept we are leaving the EU - non of the rebels will support a remain proposition
    Not even Clarke or Soubry?
    Clarke and Soubry both said today we are leaving the EU in live interviews
    I think tbh most Remainers accept we are leaving. I certainly do (sadly).
    Same here. And I wish the leavers would get on with leaving without all this melodrama.
    Unfortunately some politicians (who have a lot more influence on matters than either you or I) do not believe that and are willing to do almost anything to make sure we don't leave. The most recent example being Andrew Adonis today.
    Yes , I was surprised at Andrew Adonis , always seemed a sensible diligent minister.On another point why did the government not make the referendum legally binding ?
    I would suggest arrogance. They never for a moment thought they were going to lose.
    Insofar as we have a tradition of referendums, they are advisory, maintaining the supremacy of parliament. The AV one was the exception, with specific clauses written in to ensure that a yes vote would have required the minister to enact the changes, put there at the insistence of the LDs. As ever the LDs had a good eye for the detail; for the big picture, not so much.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 25,383
    tyson said:

    slade said:

    slade said:

    Lib Dem hold in Handside

    This is an amazing result. The Conservatives have usually won this ward recently. The Lib Dems best result this century is a win by 50 votes. They have won tonight with a majority of over 400.

    I really do not think that you can read anything into any of these results . I couldn't be arsed to vote in this kind of election and I am at the sadder end of political anoraks...and I really couldn't give a flying fuck.....
    Politics tends to be about those who can be bothered.
  • felixfelix Posts: 10,158
    PClipp said:

    RobD said:

    "1.9% above the 50% threshold" - so that would be 3.8% ahead of the other side.
    Very mischievous spinning of the numbers by OGH!

    Nah. Mischievous spinning would be:
    "...you can hear the argument developing that the Leave victory, which only 37.5% of registered voters supported, does not have the same democratic legitimacy as has been suggested."
    People who can't be arsed to vote don't have any say in the matter.
    They were being asked to vote on a meaningless question. Would you get out of bed on a cold summer`s morning to do that, still less go down to the polling station?
    Sounds like you're admitting you abstained. How stupid is that?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,429
    Sandpit said:

    What would the Ashes be, without yet another spectacular middle-order batting collapse from England?

    Spectacular is overgenerous, I think. Utterly tame and predictable is more like it.
    Credit to Malan - a fine innings, and he was furious for throwing it away at the end.

    New thread, btw.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 26,777
    TGOHF said:
    LOL, Tories are spitting feathers, another popular budget from SNP makes the nasty party look even nastier.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 13,542
    TGOHF said:

    SNP predict their tax rises will raise LESS than previous year. No more funds for services - All about bashing the middle class.

    Tax rises don't kick in till 33 grand. That's 5 grand more that the mean wage, never mind the median wage.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 44,318
    edited December 2017
    Ally_B said:




    I keep seeing comments on PB.com, and the wider MSM, about the EU Referendum being a close result, with the implication that it was the closest referendum result in human history, and that because it was such a narrow win for LEAVE, that somehow that made the result illegitimate. Perhaps I exaggerate with the previous sentence, but you know what I mean!
    [..]
    The result was LEAVE 52%, REMAIN 48%. Or, for fans of decimal points, LEAVE 51.9%, REMAIN 48.1%, on a turnout of 72.2%. The nearest-run thing indeed!

    Or was it? Have there been any referendums with closer results? Were they regarded as illegitimate? Or did the aforementioned results result in sour grapes from the losing side? Perhaps, unsurprisingly, I can give you two relatively recent (ie. within the last 20-ish years) referendum results that were much closer.


    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/10/18/the-nearest-run-thing/

    I don't think there is a suggestion that the other two referendum results were distorted by Russian money/influence and a total disregard for spending limits?
    That 73p worth of Russian ads must have been super effective.
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    Alistair said:

    TGOHF said:

    SNP predict their tax rises will raise LESS than previous year. No more funds for services - All about bashing the middle class.

    Tax rises don't kick in till 33 grand. That's 5 grand more that the mean wage, never mind the median wage.
    Which is why they will raise less since there is a tax cut for everyone via the lower band.
This discussion has been closed.