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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How punters saw 2017 on three key UK political betting markets

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited January 1 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How punters saw 2017 on three key UK political betting markets

The year of next General Election is based on the last six months. All charts based on Betfair Exchange trades monitored by Betdata.io

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Comments

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 6,203
    First. For the bothans...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 46,534
    Interesting graphs. Also got the Italian election, the German re-run, and the Swedish election, plus the midterms from the US.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 14,251
    edited January 1
    FPT

    Without wishing to defend Toby Young, it is worth pointing out that Andrew Adonis has no practical experience of education, transport or (although this is more contestable) social mobility, but that hasn't stopped him posing as an expert in all three fields under four Prime Ministers and making a fat living from them.

    One of the regulators of the SLC, who apparently worked as a solicitor for the NHS, told me in all apparent seriousness that they were not bound by the criminal law.

    Young being appointed in a subject he knows nothing about is hardly unusual.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 46,534
    Mr. Doethur, for that matter, Julian the Apostate was made Caesar (at that time it meant Junior Co-Emperor) to help protect Gaul despite being a scholar with no experience of governance at all.

    His appointment was largely on the basis that all the other emperor's male relatives were dead.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 12,903
    edited January 1
    ydoethur said:

    FPT

    Without wishing to defend Toby Young, it is worth pointing out that Andrew Adonis has no practical experience of education, transport or (although this is more contestable) social mobility, but that hasn't stopped him posing as an expert in all three fields under four Prime Ministers and making a fat living from them.

    One of the regulators of the SLC, who apparently worked as a solicitor for the NHS, told me in all apparent seriousness that they were not bound by the criminal law.

    Young being appointed in a subject he knows nothing about is hardly unusual.

    Fair comment. I’m not highly impressed by including the lady from Boots, either given their employment practices (http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b09m6rfl shortly)
    Plus quite a lot in the Guardian not long ago and they are in a long-running dispute over Union recognition... their ‘sweetheart’ union isn’t popular with the regulators, AIUI.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 12,903

    Mr. Doethur, for that matter, Julian the Apostate was made Caesar (at that time it meant Junior Co-Emperor) to help protect Gaul despite being a scholar with no experience of governance at all.

    His appointment was largely on the basis that all the other emperor's male relatives were dead.

    Probably made him better qualified for that job than Toby Young for his new one!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 12,097
    The trend is our friend....
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,006
    It is certainly correct to say that many economists (including relatively free market ones) believed the Thatcher/Howe labour market reforms would result in UK unemployment soaring to 5m.

    But I don't believe it was the view of a majority, or even a sizeable minority, of labour market economists.

    The consensus view of economists at the time was that labour market liberalisation would result in firms firing all the unproductive workers. This would result in a double whammy to the economy: those people who had previously been spending (and paying taxes) would no longer be doing so, while those people still in jobs would respond to greater uncertainty by upping their savings rate, therefore also lowering aggregate demand.

    In other words, economists at the time forecast what did actually happen in Spain following labour market reform.

    Now, why was it that the economists were wrong:

    1. They had underestimated the drag of a large number of people working in unproductive jobs. As firms lost unproductive workers, they moved to replace them, confident that they would be able to let people go if things turned south.

    2. As the inflation dragon began to be slayed, people felt confident borrowing, and this held up domestic consumption much better than expected. (With the caveat that it laid some of the later problems for the UK.)

    and finally

    3. World economic activity picked up, and this raised demand for British goods at a crucial time.
  • AnExileinD4AnExileinD4 Posts: 138
    edited January 1
    ydoethur said:

    FPT

    Without wishing to defend Toby Young, it is worth pointing out that Andrew Adonis has no practical experience of education, transport or (although this is more contestable) social mobility, but that hasn't stopped him posing as an expert in all three fields under four Prime Ministers and making a fat living from them.

    One of the regulators of the SLC, who apparently worked as a solicitor for the NHS, told me in all apparent seriousness that they were not bound by the criminal law.

    Young being appointed in a subject he knows nothing about is hardly unusual.

    He’s undoubtedly a self-aggrandising blowhard but isn’t that a requirement for quango-esque appointments.

    I’ll be interested in what Adonis does next as he’s an apparatchnick par excellence. But singularly lacking in wider employability.

    Edit: I’ve no doubt there are some competent public sector lawyers out there but they’re thin on the ground,
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 23,508
    rcs1000 said:

    It is certainly correct to say that many economists (including relatively free market ones) believed the Thatcher/Howe labour market reforms would result in UK unemployment soaring to 5m.
    I think Fraser is referring to this: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/georgeosborne/6224723/Tory-public-spending-cuts-could-push-unemployment-to-5-million.html
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 14,251
    edited January 1
    rcs1000 said:

    It is certainly correct to say that many economists (including relatively free market ones) believed the Thatcher/Howe labour market reforms would result in UK unemployment soaring to 5m.

    But I don't believe it was the view of a majority, or even a sizeable minority, of labour market economists.

    The consensus view of economists at the time was that labour market liberalisation would result in firms firing all the unproductive workers. This would result in a double whammy to the economy: those people who had previously been spending (and paying taxes) would no longer be doing so, while those people still in jobs would respond to greater uncertainty by upping their savings rate, therefore also lowering aggregate demand.

    In other words, economists at the time forecast what did actually happen in Spain following labour market reform.

    Now, why was it that the economists were wrong:

    1. They had underestimated the drag of a large number of people working in unproductive jobs. As firms lost unproductive workers, they moved to replace them, confident that they would be able to let people go if things turned south.

    2. As the inflation dragon began to be slayed, people felt confident borrowing, and this held up domestic consumption much better than expected. (With the caveat that it laid some of the later problems for the UK.)

    and finally

    3. World economic activity picked up, and this raised demand for British goods at a crucial time.
    I think he was referring to David Blanchflower in 2009:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/georgeosborne/6224723/Tory-public-spending-cuts-could-push-unemployment-to-5-million.html

    Although what he knows about economics could be written on the back of a fag packet.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,006

    Interesting graphs. Also got the Italian election, the German re-run, and the Swedish election, plus the midterms from the US.

    Of those, I think the Italian election is the one with the greatest potential to "change the world". Italy is economically moribund, has terrible demographics, and struggles mightily in the Euro. (It's historic system was to have rigid labour markets offset by high inflation and constant devaluations.)

    I don't believe - as HYUFD does - that there is a likely Forza Italia, LN, Five Star coalition to depart the Euro. (That's like suggesting there would be a coalition government of Jeremy Corbyn and Daniel Hannan.) But I do think it is reasonably likely that a moderately Eurosceptic party will "win" the Italian elections.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,006

    rcs1000 said:

    It is certainly correct to say that many economists (including relatively free market ones) believed the Thatcher/Howe labour market reforms would result in UK unemployment soaring to 5m.
    I think Fraser is referring to this: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/georgeosborne/6224723/Tory-public-spending-cuts-could-push-unemployment-to-5-million.html
    Ah yes, I was being dumb. I assumed he was referring to this: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/personal-view/3623669/How-364-economists-got-it-totally-wrong.html
  • AnExileinD4AnExileinD4 Posts: 138
    edited January 1
    rcs1000 said:

    Interesting graphs. Also got the Italian election, the German re-run, and the Swedish election, plus the midterms from the US.

    Of those, I think the Italian election is the one with the greatest potential to "change the world". Italy is economically moribund, has terrible demographics, and struggles mightily in the Euro. (It's historic system was to have rigid labour markets offset by high inflation and constant devaluations.)

    I don't believe - as HYUFD does - that there is a likely Forza Italia, LN, Five Star coalition to depart the Euro. (That's like suggesting there would be a coalition government of Jeremy Corbyn and Daniel Hannan.) But I do think it is reasonably likely that a moderately Eurosceptic party will "win" the Italian elections.

    All countries have internal divisions but Italy has never really reconciled to unification *(Cavour/Verdi shout). The Lombard plain is like Bavaria in its worth ethic. The Abruzzo has more in common with the land of the Vandals. Odd really, Sicily and England both had the Norsemen conquer them but they took radically different directions.

    *in my view etc. Unlike most on here, I recognise both shades of grey and the possibility that my opinions are wrong.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 46,534
    King Cole, Julian far exceeded expectations, defending Gaul and even taking the war into Germania. Indeed, he went on to win the most flawless victory in any civil war (as the armies massed, the emperor died of disease, after naming Julian his heir).
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 46,534
    Mr. D4, that's true but consider that the Normans here were influenced by Saxons and Celts, whereas those in Sicily were influenced by Italians, Byzantines and Muslims.
  • AnExileinD4AnExileinD4 Posts: 138

    Mr. D4, that's true but consider that the Normans here were influenced by Saxons and Celts, whereas those in Sicily were influenced by Italians, Byzantines and Muslims.

    Italians?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 46,534
    Mr. D4, I would've been more specific but couldn't recall just who was actually in Italy at the time. I think a tiny sliver of Roman influence remained, and obviously the Pope was there, poping around, but the Ostrogoths had long since been dispatched at the idiotic behest of Justinian, and I don't think the Venetians and Genoese had really got going.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 12,903

    King Cole, Julian far exceeded expectations, defending Gaul and even taking the war into Germania. Indeed, he went on to win the most flawless victory in any civil war (as the armies massed, the emperor died of disease, after naming Julian his heir).

    Makes him significantly different from Young, then.

    I may seem unusually negative about him, but his book was one of the, if not the most unpleasant examples of self-aggrandisement I’ve ever read, and, seeing him on the likes of Question Time has only confirmed my dislike.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 46,534
    King Cole, don't watch QT much, certainly any more, but I do remember him being on because he said one of the most impressively stupid things I'd heard since Mehdi Hasan (on Any Questions) claimed Muslims in Britain were treated like Jews in 1930s Germany.

    Toby Young asked why things had to be kept secret. Why we couldn't just be told intelligence information about our security. I forget the precise matter that was being discussed, but distinctly recall taking the important and correct decision to switch off the television before any more stupid spilled into my ears.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 12,903
    Mr D, people like TY being interviewed or speaking on such programmes as QT are a serious danger to TV screens due to something heavy being thrown at them
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 9,922
    QT is dire in almost every possible respect.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 46,534
    Mr. Jonathan, it's a shame as the basic idea is absolutely fine.

    Anyway, I must go and be productive/read about the Albigensian Crusade.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 12,903
    Jonathan said:

    QT is dire in almost every possible respect.

    Jonathan Dimblebey is a fully paid up pain. Acts as though he’s a member of audience.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 14,251
    Wow.

    Have we finally found an issue all PBers can agree on - that QT is shite?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 12,903
    ydoethur said:

    Wow.

    Have we finally found an issue all PBers can agree on - that QT is shite?

    And there was me worrying about being negative in the New Year!

  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,251
    edited January 1
    This guy is full of sh*t. Always was, always is.

    Don’t let him get started on the anthropogenic forcing of the climate...
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,118
    ydoethur said:

    Wow.

    Have we finally found an issue all PBers can agree on - that QT is shite?


    QT is illinformed people giving their slanted views in response to slanted questions..

    So much better when an informed interviewer like Andrew Neil asks the questions and can ask suplementary follow up questions.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 20,096

    Jonathan said:

    QT is dire in almost every possible respect.

    Jonathan Dimblebey is a fully paid up pain. Acts as though he’s a member of audience.
    I’m sure it was his brother the last time I watched it?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 14,251

    ydoethur said:

    Wow.

    Have we finally found an issue all PBers can agree on - that QT is shite?


    QT is illinformed people giving their slanted views in response to slanted questions..

    So much better when an informed interviewer like Andrew Neil asks the questions and can ask suplementary follow up questions.
    I'll take that as a 'yes!'
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 11,609
    ydoethur said:

    Wow.

    Have we finally found an issue all PBers can agree on - that QT is shite?

    I think we can all agree that Toby Young is an empty-headed big mouth. What in God’s name is someone like May, who gives the impression of being serious and sober, doing approving such an appointment, beats me.

    The Tories need to appeal to the student generation. They claim to understand this. And they such a pillock to an important public sector post?
  • alex.alex. Posts: 3,317
    Sandpit said:

    Jonathan said:

    QT is dire in almost every possible respect.

    Jonathan Dimblebey is a fully paid up pain. Acts as though he’s a member of audience.
    I’m sure it was his brother the last time I watched it?
    David does it on TV, Jonathan on Radio 4

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,992
    Jonathan said:

    QT is dire in almost every possible respect.

    Here, I'll correct it for you..

    QT is shite in every possible respect.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 12,903
    edited January 1
    Sandpit said:

    Jonathan said:

    QT is dire in almost every possible respect.

    Jonathan Dimblebey is a fully paid up pain. Acts as though he’s a member of audience.
    I’m sure it was his brother the last time I watched it?
    Whichever!

    I’m trying to forget last years ‘political’ TV


    Excuses, excuses.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 11,609
    It suggests a less than happy place. It would concern me as a parent if there was such turnover at a school attended by my children.

    One wonders how much due diligence has been done on Mr Young’s actual achievements. Or will this be like Camilla Batmanghelidjh - someone who is good at talking but bloody awful at implementation? Governments seem to be particularly vulnerable to such people.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 1,853
    ydoethur said:

    Wow.

    Have we finally found an issue all PBers can agree on - that QT is shite?

    Wish I could take credit for this beauty:

  • PClippPClipp Posts: 1,738
    Cyclefree said:

    ydoethur said:

    Wow.
    Have we finally found an issue all PBers can agree on - that QT is shite?

    I think we can all agree that Toby Young is an empty-headed big mouth. What in God’s name is someone like May, who gives the impression of being serious and sober, doing approving such an appointment, beats me.

    The Tories need to appeal to the student generation. They claim to understand this. And they such a pillock to an important public sector post?
    +1 May has no idea what she is doing.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 7,699


    All countries have internal divisions but Italy has never really reconciled to unification *(Cavour/Verdi shout). The Lombard plain is like Bavaria in its worth ethic. The Abruzzo has more in common with the land of the Vandals. Odd really, Sicily and England both had the Norsemen conquer them but they took radically different directions.

    *in my view etc. Unlike most on here, I recognise both shades of grey and the possibility that my opinions are wrong.

    I think an emulation of the Italian situation is a moderately probable outcome for Brexit Britain. In my view, shades of grey etc, and in particular noting that not everything about Italy is bad, that it has its Milan, just as the UK has London and also that the situation developed over a long period and not overnight. Nevertheless many Italian elements are present or are becoming present in Britain, that Brexit will probably attenuate: old and tired, poor productivity, lack of innovation, reduced opportunities, inward looking, poor social cohesion, moribund politics. These factors have been somewhat mitigated in the UK by immigration but Brexit, as apparently propagated by our government, aims to change all that.

    Otherwise I guess either the UK is qualitatively different from Italy in some way that I am not aware of, or something concrete will happen that prevents the UK becoming like Italy.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 20,016

    ydoethur said:

    Wow.

    Have we finally found an issue all PBers can agree on - that QT is shite?


    QT is illinformed people giving their slanted views in response to slanted questions..

    So much better when an informed interviewer like Andrew Neil asks the questions and can ask suplementary follow up questions.
    Neil, is a London unionist puppet, he is economical with his questions and gets a bit mixed upabout real facts and fiction at times.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,992
    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    Wow.

    Have we finally found an issue all PBers can agree on - that QT is shite?


    QT is illinformed people giving their slanted views in response to slanted questions..

    So much better when an informed interviewer like Andrew Neil asks the questions and can ask suplementary follow up questions.
    Neil, is a London unionist puppet, he is economical with his questions and gets a bit mixed upabout real facts and fiction at times.
    Malc. Happy New Year.
    I think you are referring to yourself..
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 12,706
    The term 'permanent head' seems to be used more in hope than expectation.
  • Any Burnley fans about?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 6,952
    Before watching that clip I thought that he was an arsehole. Now I know that he is an arsehole.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 7,699
    edited January 1
    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    Wow.

    Have we finally found an issue all PBers can agree on - that QT is shite?


    QT is illinformed people giving their slanted views in response to slanted questions..

    So much better when an informed interviewer like Andrew Neil asks the questions and can ask suplementary follow up questions.
    Neil, is a London unionist puppet, he is economical with his questions and gets a bit mixed upabout real facts and fiction at times.
    Andrew Neil is prejudiced in the questions he asks. Counterintuitively, interviewees that know their stuff and hold their ground on opinions that don't fit Neil's fixed views get more out of an interview with him than someone he agrees with and doesn't put any effort into interviewing. Tough questions test the arguments. His show has aired some strong cases for man made climate change, for example
  • AnExileinD4AnExileinD4 Posts: 138

    Before watching that clip I thought that he was an arsehole. Now I know that he is an arsehole.
    The trouble is that most teachers are not very good either. Arseholes as it were,
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 12,903
    ‘K’nell! He’d get shouted down for that in my local. And we’ve only one teacher as a regular.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 6,952

    Before watching that clip I thought that he was an arsehole. Now I know that he is an arsehole.
    The trouble is that most teachers are not very good either. Arseholes as it were,
    Evidence?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 23,508
    FF43 said:

    Otherwise I guess either the UK is qualitatively different from Italy in some way that I am not aware of, or something concrete will happen that prevents the UK becoming like Italy.

    Isn't the qualitative difference, ironically, the greater likelihood of the UK breaking up as a result of Scottish independence and the reunification of Ireland?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 6,203

    ydoethur said:

    Wow.

    Have we finally found an issue all PBers can agree on - that QT is shite?


    QT is illinformed people giving their slanted views in response to slanted questions..

    So much better when an informed interviewer like Andrew Neil asks the questions and can ask suplementary follow up questions.
    Andrew Neil is the person who was convinced that the present logjam in forming a government in Germany is the biggest constitutional crisis in Germany since WW2 (which is not just risible but involves forgetting everything in Germany from 1945 to the 1990s) and who believes that UK expertise in building Airbus wings cannot be replicated elsewhere (despite the fact that the Spanish - or is it the French, I can't remember - do exactly the same thing for the tailplane).

    "Informed" is not the same as "wise".
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 12,903

    Before watching that clip I thought that he was an arsehole. Now I know that he is an arsehole.
    The trouble is that most teachers are not very good either. Arseholes as it were,
    Well, it doesn’t apply to any of the teachers in my family.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,251

    Before watching that clip I thought that he was an arsehole. Now I know that he is an arsehole.
    I couldn’t put it better myself. A first class tw*t!!
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,251

    Before watching that clip I thought that he was an arsehole. Now I know that he is an arsehole.
    The trouble is that most teachers are not very good either. Arseholes as it were,
    LOL - you been on the NY juice buddy?
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 1,035
    ydoethur said:

    Wow.

    Have we finally found an issue all PBers can agree on - that QT is shite?


    somethingsomethingpinapplepizzalastjedisomething
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 2,664

    rcs1000 said:

    Interesting graphs. Also got the Italian election, the German re-run, and the Swedish election, plus the midterms from the US.

    Of those, I think the Italian election is the one with the greatest potential to "change the world". Italy is economically moribund, has terrible demographics, and struggles mightily in the Euro. (It's historic system was to have rigid labour markets offset by high inflation and constant devaluations.)

    I don't believe - as HYUFD does - that there is a likely Forza Italia, LN, Five Star coalition to depart the Euro. (That's like suggesting there would be a coalition government of Jeremy Corbyn and Daniel Hannan.) But I do think it is reasonably likely that a moderately Eurosceptic party will "win" the Italian elections.

    All countries have internal divisions but Italy has never really reconciled to unification *(Cavour/Verdi shout). The Lombard plain is like Bavaria in its worth ethic. The Abruzzo has more in common with the land of the Vandals. Odd really, Sicily and England both had the Norsemen conquer them but they took radically different directions.

    *in my view etc. Unlike most on here, I recognise both shades of grey andthe possibility that my opinions are wrong.
    I don't know. I think quite a lot of us might recognise the possibility that your opinions are wrong.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 12,903
    Andrew said:

    ydoethur said:

    Wow.

    Have we finally found an issue all PBers can agree on - that QT is shite?


    somethingsomethingpinapplepizzalastjedisomething
    How long did it take think that up? Just asking!
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 7,699
    Toby Young is an idiot, but that's not the problem. Universities have weaknesses that could be potentially be tackled by an Office for Students. The body would have a clear remit and the means and skills to fill that remit. That the OfS has no clear remit and offers a top job to Toby Young indicates pure cronyism on the part of Jo Johnson and the government.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 48,519
    FF43 said:


    All countries have internal divisions but Italy has never really reconciled to unification *(Cavour/Verdi shout). The Lombard plain is like Bavaria in its worth ethic. The Abruzzo has more in common with the land of the Vandals. Odd really, Sicily and England both had the Norsemen conquer them but they took radically different directions.

    *in my view etc. Unlike most on here, I recognise both shades of grey and the possibility that my opinions are wrong.

    I think an emulation of the Italian situation is a moderately probable outcome for Brexit Britain. In my view, shades of grey etc, and in particular noting that not everything about Italy is bad, that it has its Milan, just as the UK has London and also that the situation developed over a long period and not overnight. Nevertheless many Italian elements are present or are becoming present in Britain, that Brexit will probably attenuate: old and tired, poor productivity, lack of innovation, reduced opportunities, inward looking, poor social cohesion, moribund politics. These factors have been somewhat mitigated in the UK by immigration but Brexit, as apparently propagated by our government, aims to change all that.

    Otherwise I guess either the UK is qualitatively different from Italy in some way that I am not aware of, or something concrete will happen that prevents the UK becoming like Italy.
    Italy has quite high productivity actually and it has been failure to properly control immigration into the UK which has put downward pressure on wages and added to demand for housing and services
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 7,699

    FF43 said:

    Otherwise I guess either the UK is qualitatively different from Italy in some way that I am not aware of, or something concrete will happen that prevents the UK becoming like Italy.

    Isn't the qualitative difference, ironically, the greater likelihood of the UK breaking up as a result of Scottish independence and the reunification of Ireland?
    The UK is a little more likely to break up than Italy. I suppose the key point is how much English/UK government sensibilities towards Ireland and Scotland will influence their actions. For example would they be minded to stay in the Single Market and Customs Union if that was necessary for a workable Irish outcome? Generally England/the UK are good at ignoring Ireland and Scotland. To be fair it's a policy that usually works better for them than their occasional unhappy interventions in those countries.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 48,519

    FF43 said:

    Otherwise I guess either the UK is qualitatively different from Italy in some way that I am not aware of, or something concrete will happen that prevents the UK becoming like Italy.

    Isn't the qualitative difference, ironically, the greater likelihood of the UK breaking up as a result of Scottish independence and the reunification of Ireland?
    According to the latest Italian polls the Lega Nord which wants the North of Italy to break away is on 12% in the national polls, higher than the SNP and SF are in Westminster polls.

    Plus of course Spain is more likely to suffer an imminent breakaway from Catalonia than the UK or Italy are to see a breakaway after separatist votes won most seats in their recent regional elections while unionist parties are set for a majority in Holyrood at the next Scottish Parliament elections on the latest polls and Unionist Parties in NI still have more representatives than Nationalist Parties
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 14,251
    edited January 1
    Andrew said:

    ydoethur said:

    Wow.

    Have we finally found an issue all PBers can agree on - that QT is shite?


    somethingsomethingpinapplepizzalastjedisomething
    Nah, there's at least two people who like the Last Jedi. And one's a Leaver and one's a Remainer, so there's no way to harmony there.

    Or are you just trying to ensure that there are no AV threads this week?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 48,519
    rcs1000 said:

    Interesting graphs. Also got the Italian election, the German re-run, and the Swedish election, plus the midterms from the US.

    Of those, I think the Italian election is the one with the greatest potential to "change the world". Italy is economically moribund, has terrible demographics, and struggles mightily in the Euro. (It's historic system was to have rigid labour markets offset by high inflation and constant devaluations.)

    I don't believe - as HYUFD does - that there is a likely Forza Italia, LN, Five Star coalition to depart the Euro. (That's like suggesting there would be a coalition government of Jeremy Corbyn and Daniel Hannan.) But I do think it is reasonably likely that a moderately Eurosceptic party will "win" the Italian elections.

    Five Star with likely produce the next Italian PM in the form of their charismatic young leader Luigi Di Maio with Berlusconi's coalition also an influence in the background.
  • Didn’t Nige get all upset when foreigners started getting involved in the UK referendum?

    Hypocrite is another adjective we can call Farage.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 36,634

    Didn’t Nige get all upset when foreigners started getting involved in the UK referendum?

    Hypocrite is another adjective we can call Farage.
    I'm genuinely confused what on earth is going through his mind. UKIP got what they wanted, but there's still the form of Brexit to fight over, why is he always running around the world trying to stoke these sorts of movements?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 12,903
    kle4 said:

    Didn’t Nige get all upset when foreigners started getting involved in the UK referendum?

    Hypocrite is another adjective we can call Farage.
    I'm genuinely confused what on earth is going through his mind. UKIP got what they wanted, but there's still the form of Brexit to fight over, why is he always running around the world trying to stoke these sorts of movements?
    It’s got to be a cod!
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 6,952
    How do you pronounce that? Ire-zit? Sounds like someone upset about having a spot.
  • kle4 said:

    Didn’t Nige get all upset when foreigners started getting involved in the UK referendum?

    Hypocrite is another adjective we can call Farage.
    I'm genuinely confused what on earth is going through his mind. UKIP got what they wanted, but there's still the form of Brexit to fight over, why is he always running around the world trying to stoke these sorts of movements?
    He's out of a job next year, and given his Parliamentary performances, such as when he finished third in a two horse race, he needs a job/money to fund his divorces.

    He's desperate, and all that crawling to Trump got him the square root of bugger all.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 23,680
    FF43 said:


    All countries have internal divisions but Italy has never really reconciled to unification *(Cavour/Verdi shout). The Lombard plain is like Bavaria in its worth ethic. The Abruzzo has more in common with the land of the Vandals. Odd really, Sicily and England both had the Norsemen conquer them but they took radically different directions.

    *in my view etc. Unlike most on here, I recognise both shades of grey and the possibility that my opinions are wrong.

    I think an emulation of the Italian situation is a moderately probable outcome for Brexit Britain. In my view, shades of grey etc, and in particular noting that not everything about Italy is bad, that it has its Milan, just as the UK has London and also that the situation developed over a long period and not overnight. Nevertheless many Italian elements are present or are becoming present in Britain, that Brexit will probably attenuate: old and tired, poor productivity, lack of innovation, reduced opportunities, inward looking, poor social cohesion, moribund politics. These factors have been somewhat mitigated in the UK by immigration but Brexit, as apparently propagated by our government, aims to change all that.

    Otherwise I guess either the UK is qualitatively different from Italy in some way that I am not aware of, or something concrete will happen that prevents the UK becoming like Italy.
    Good fortune ran out for Italy c.2000 or so.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 14,251

    How do you pronounce that? Ire-zit? Sounds like someone upset about having a spot.
    If he had any sense, he would be working on the French, because their departure from the EU could be called Fexit.

    However, he has not so far displayed vast amounts of sense.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,931
    How ludicrous to think that such an odious charlatan could outflank, outwit and procure the demise of Dave "Increased Majority" Cameron.

    The rules of internet dickheadery now require me to type:

    "Oh, wait..."
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 18,327

    kle4 said:

    Didn’t Nige get all upset when foreigners started getting involved in the UK referendum?

    Hypocrite is another adjective we can call Farage.
    I'm genuinely confused what on earth is going through his mind. UKIP got what they wanted, but there's still the form of Brexit to fight over, why is he always running around the world trying to stoke these sorts of movements?
    He's out of a job next year, and given his Parliamentary performances, such as when he finished third in a two horse race, he needs a job/money to fund his divorces.

    He's desperate, and all that crawling to Trump got him the square root of bugger all.
    sounds like Dave and Obama
  • BarnamBarnam Posts: 6

    The silence on Iran is deafening. Good luck to the protestors. I'm sorry they have been so abandoned by the rest of the world, which is too busy pandering to Islam to stand with them. It won't last. https://t.co/sSzz8836Ya

    — Anne Marie Waters (@AMDWaters) January 1, 2018

    The silence from the EU is becoming deafingly LOUD!
  • BarnamBarnam Posts: 6

    kle4 said:

    Didn’t Nige get all upset when foreigners started getting involved in the UK referendum?

    Hypocrite is another adjective we can call Farage.
    I'm genuinely confused what on earth is going through his mind. UKIP got what they wanted, but there's still the form of Brexit to fight over, why is he always running around the world trying to stoke these sorts of movements?
    He's out of a job next year, and given his Parliamentary performances, such as when he finished third in a two horse race, he needs a job/money to fund his divorces.

    He's desperate, and all that crawling to Trump got him the square root of bugger all.
    Who is still afraid of UKIP and Farage? One guess. :)
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,931
    edited January 1
    Barnam said:

    The silence on Iran is deafening. Good luck to the protestors. I'm sorry they have been so abandoned by the rest of the world, which is too busy pandering to Islam to stand with them. It won't last. https://t.co/sSzz8836Ya

    — Anne Marie Waters (@AMDWaters) January 1, 2018

    The silence from the EU is becoming deafingly LOUD!

    DeafENingly. And I'm guessing she doesn't realise that the protesters are muslims too.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 14,251
    edited January 1
    Barnam said:

    The silence on Iran is deafening. Good luck to the protestors. I'm sorry they have been so abandoned by the rest of the world, which is too busy pandering to Islam to stand with them. It won't last. https://t.co/sSzz8836Ya

    — Anne Marie Waters (@AMDWaters) January 1, 2018


    The silence from the EU is becoming deafingly LOUD!
    Is it?

    Here is Boris Johnson:

    And here is Guy Verhofstadt:

    Even allowing for they could have gone further, they are clearly not silent - and I say that as somebody who dislikes and distrusts both of them.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 5,931
    ydoethur said:

    Barnam said:

    The silence on Iran is deafening. Good luck to the protestors. I'm sorry they have been so abandoned by the rest of the world, which is too busy pandering to Islam to stand with them. It won't last. https://t.co/sSzz8836Ya

    — Anne Marie Waters (@AMDWaters) January 1, 2018


    The silence from the EU is becoming deafingly LOUD!
    Is it?

    Here is Boris Johnson:

    And here is Guy Verhofstadt:

    Even allowing for they could have gone further, they are clearly not silent - and I say that as somebody who dislikes and distrusts both of them.
    Anne Marie Waters was cast adrift from UKIP for hating muslims more than necessary. I don't think we should pay too much attention to (oddly formatted) rebleats of her output.
  • Barnam said:

    kle4 said:

    Didn’t Nige get all upset when foreigners started getting involved in the UK referendum?

    Hypocrite is another adjective we can call Farage.
    I'm genuinely confused what on earth is going through his mind. UKIP got what they wanted, but there's still the form of Brexit to fight over, why is he always running around the world trying to stoke these sorts of movements?
    He's out of a job next year, and given his Parliamentary performances, such as when he finished third in a two horse race, he needs a job/money to fund his divorces.

    He's desperate, and all that crawling to Trump got him the square root of bugger all.
    Who is still afraid of UKIP and Farage? One guess. :)
    I'm always afraid of Jew baiting scum.
  • I've asked Shadsy to price up a market on how long Toby Young remains in his new job.

    I suspect his piece on eugenics might get an airing.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 16,069
    viewcode said:

    ydoethur said:

    Wow.

    Have we finally found an issue all PBers can agree on - that QT is shite?


    QT is illinformed people giving their slanted views in response to slanted questions..

    So much better when an informed interviewer like Andrew Neil asks the questions and can ask suplementary follow up questions.
    Andrew Neil is the person who was convinced that the present logjam in forming a government in Germany is the biggest constitutional crisis in Germany since WW2 (which is not just risible but involves forgetting everything in Germany from 1945 to the 1990s) and who believes that UK expertise in building Airbus wings cannot be replicated elsewhere (despite the fact that the Spanish - or is it the French, I can't remember - do exactly the same thing for the tailplane).

    "Informed" is not the same as "wise".
    He certainly strikes me as better informed and wiser than most of the people he interviews.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 16,165

    Didn’t Nige get all upset when foreigners started getting involved in the UK referendum?

    Hypocrite is another adjective we can call Farage.
    Nigel Farage doesn't give even a single damn about either consistency or principles. Nigel Farage cares first and foremost about Nigel Farage. Hence why when his supposed life's dream (Brexit) was being achieved by the likes of Gove, Johnson, Stuart et al that rather than backing them he was simply pissed off at being excluded.
  • So I'm watching the darts.

    One day someone will be able explain to me the attraction of watching this pub game.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 9,641

    So I'm watching the darts.

    One day someone will be able explain to me the attraction of watching this pub game.

    Come on, it's a great game to watch, especially when someone's playing as well as Cross.

    And if you're bored by the game, there's always the dubious fancy dress...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 21,179

    So I'm watching the darts.

    One day someone will be able explain to me the attraction of watching this pub game.

    Throw your first 180 - and you'll know.....
  • EPGEPG Posts: 2,805
    edited January 1
    Does Toby Young think eugenics should be used to screen out low-income foetuses if they are purportedly genetically inclined toward criminality? Imagine if in the days of candlelight and archery, we had screened out short-sightedness.
  • tlg86 said:

    So I'm watching the darts.

    One day someone will be able explain to me the attraction of watching this pub game.

    Come on, it's a great game to watch, especially when someone's playing as well as Cross.

    And if you're bored by the game, there's always the dubious fancy dress...
    The fans are putting me off.

    It's like the worse elements of The Barmy Army.

    It's just an excuse to get pissed isn't it?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 12,903

    So I'm watching the darts.

    One day someone will be able explain to me the attraction of watching this pub game.

    Watching it yesterday my family came to the conclusion that apart from a few relations and WAGs of the players the audience was a virtual one.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 21,179

    How do you pronounce that? Ire-zit? Sounds like someone upset about having a spot.
    I wrecks it......
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 8,740
    Did anyone listen to World at One today ?
    I could swear I heard Grant Shapps talking sense about housing, and wanted to check that I'm not going bonkers....
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 2,664
    If you are wondering who it did in fact belong to, you aren't doing 2018 right.
  • Nigelb said:

    Did anyone listen to World at One today ?
    I could swear I heard Grant Shapps talking sense about housing, and wanted to check that I'm not going bonkers....

    Grant Shapps is a vastly underrated politician.

    The only Tory Chairman* to have won a majority in the last 25 years.

    *If you ignore Andrew Feldman.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 9,641

    Nigelb said:

    Did anyone listen to World at One today ?
    I could swear I heard Grant Shapps talking sense about housing, and wanted to check that I'm not going bonkers....

    Grant Shapps is a vastly underrated politician.

    The only Tory Chairman* to have won a majority in the last 25 years.

    *If you ignore Andrew Feldman.
    In the same way that Theresa May is the only Home Sec to win a majority for the Tories in that time?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 6,203
    edited January 1

    viewcode said:

    ydoethur said:

    Wow.

    Have we finally found an issue all PBers can agree on - that QT is shite?


    QT is illinformed people giving their slanted views in response to slanted questions..

    So much better when an informed interviewer like Andrew Neil asks the questions and can ask suplementary follow up questions.
    Andrew Neil is the person who was convinced that the present logjam in forming a government in Germany is the biggest constitutional crisis in Germany since WW2 (which is not just risible but involves forgetting everything in Germany from 1945 to the 1990s) and who believes that UK expertise in building Airbus wings cannot be replicated elsewhere (despite the fact that the Spanish - or is it the French, I can't remember - do exactly the same thing for the tailplane).

    "Informed" is not the same as "wise".
    He certainly strikes me as better informed and wiser than most of the people he interviews.
    True. But consider the people he interviews... :)
  • tlg86 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Did anyone listen to World at One today ?
    I could swear I heard Grant Shapps talking sense about housing, and wanted to check that I'm not going bonkers....

    Grant Shapps is a vastly underrated politician.

    The only Tory Chairman* to have won a majority in the last 25 years.

    *If you ignore Andrew Feldman.
    In the same way that Theresa May is the only Home Sec to win a majority for the Tories in that time?
    Tory Chairman help run general election campaigns, Home Secretaries do not.
  • BarnamBarnam Posts: 6
    Barnam said:
    » show previous quotes
    Who is still afraid of UKIP and Farage? One guess. :)

    TSE said:
    I'm always afraid of Jew baiting scum.

    TSE must be talking about Corbyn and his Momentum crew. Now how does he link UKIP with Jew baiting? Must be in the blood.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 8,740

    Nigelb said:

    Did anyone listen to World at One today ?
    I could swear I heard Grant Shapps talking sense about housing, and wanted to check that I'm not going bonkers....

    Grant Shapps is a vastly underrated politician....
    I wouldn't go quite that far - but he does seem to have grown up in the last few years.

This discussion has been closed.