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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the Sun’s Harry Cole is right there are signs that a move a

SystemSystem Posts: 6,199
edited January 25 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the Sun’s Harry Cole is right there are signs that a move against TMay might be imminent

Tory backbench boss begs angry MPs not to call leadership contest https://t.co/0gHZHHYGbc pic.twitter.com/rqrwllpWFY

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,851
    Popcorn on standby.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 356
    media seems quiet on this at the moment.......
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 20,265
    Oh God, not Boris.
    Please not Boris.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,568
    The MPs are idiots if they try and bring the PM down now, there’s much work to do on Brexit and no obvious successor lined up.

    Links to the two Betfair markets referenced by Mike in the header.
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28051208/market?marketId=1.125589838
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28051208/market?marketId=1.132897849
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 1,780
    Sandpit said:

    The MPs are idiots if they try and bring the PM down now, there’s much work to do on Brexit and no obvious successor lined up.

    May is showing signs of doctrinal weakness and sliding toward BINO. She has to be stoned to death by the toryban because of Brexit not despite it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,851
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    The MPs are idiots if they try and bring the PM down now, there’s much work to do on Brexit and no obvious successor lined up.

    May is showing signs of doctrinal weakness and sliding toward BINO. She has to be stoned to death by the toryban because of Brexit not despite it.
    Sliding towards Brexit in name only? What signs are those?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,996

    Oh God, not Boris.
    Please not Boris.

    +100
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,996
    Sandpit said:

    The MPs are idiots if they try and bring the PM down now, there’s much work to do on Brexit and no obvious successor lined up.

    Links to the two Betfair markets referenced by Mike in the header.
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28051208/market?marketId=1.125589838
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28051208/market?marketId=1.132897849

    Not 2/1 any more!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,568
    edited January 25
    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    The MPs are idiots if they try and bring the PM down now, there’s much work to do on Brexit and no obvious successor lined up.

    Links to the two Betfair markets referenced by Mike in the header.
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28051208/market?marketId=1.125589838
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28051208/market?marketId=1.132897849

    Not 2/1 any more!
    What chance Mike had a sneakily early morning punt ;)

    2.24 now and after a tenner more it’ll be 1.74.
  • fox327fox327 Posts: 6
    BINO: Better In Not Out.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,851
    fox327 said:

    BINO: Better In Not Out.

    In the world and out of the EU, I assume? :)
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 20,265
    IanB2 said:

    Oh God, not Boris.
    Please not Boris.

    +100
    The thing is, I quite like Boris. I feel a little dirty for doing so, but he does come across as likeable (to me, at least).

    However there are two major factors that make me doubt his ability to be a good PM:
    *) He has been in a position of power before as London mayor, and didn't do well. The Garden Bridge debacle in particular shows a very poor side to his character.
    *) His personal life has been (ahem) interesting, and I am far from sure it shows characteristics that would befit a PM.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,568
    Next Con Leader market is an opportunity if we think there might be an imminent election.
    There’s only two candidates (JRM, BJ) priced under 10, and eight more priced under 30 - one of whom wouldn’t be eligible.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28051208/market?marketId=1.125574963
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,568
    edited January 25

    IanB2 said:

    Oh God, not Boris.
    Please not Boris.

    +100
    The thing is, I quite like Boris. I feel a little dirty for doing so, but he does come across as likeable (to me, at least).

    However there are two major factors that make me doubt his ability to be a good PM:
    *) He has been in a position of power before as London mayor, and didn't do well. The Garden Bridge debacle in particular shows a very poor side to his character.
    *) His personal life has been (ahem) interesting, and I am far from sure it shows characteristics that would befit a PM.
    +1

    An affable buffoon works as a provincial mayor, doesn’t really work as foreign secretary and certainly wouldn’t work as prime minister. He’s clearly out of his depth in his current position.

    Plenty more skeletons likely to come out too, If his own wife doesn’t trust him then why should the rest of us?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 22,588
    edited January 25
    RobD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    The MPs are idiots if they try and bring the PM down now, there’s much work to do on Brexit and no obvious successor lined up.

    May is showing signs of doctrinal weakness and sliding toward BINO. She has to be stoned to death by the toryban because of Brexit not despite it.
    Sliding towards Brexit in name only? What signs are those?
    He means "Boris In Name Only". Keep with the program*.

    * Spelt American-ly, 'cause I'm in LA.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 2,904
    So Henry Bolton could outlast Theresa May as a party leader?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 20,265

    So Henry Bolton could outlast Theresa May as a party leader?

    Yes, but Theresa May would actually have a party to be deposed from. Bolton would be sitting in a small room, the cake sitting on the table uncut, and with cobwebs bedecking the corner where all the presents should be piled. He will desultory blow on a party horn and scratch under the ripped paper crown.

    Meanwhile, May would be at a party with hundreds of people, loud music, and lots of lovely food. Then someone realises they're out of absinthe so, as leader, she's asked to go to the offy to get some. On the way out they pass her a handgun and place a target on her head, and once she's out they change all the locks. The party then continues.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,532
    Why now?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,532
    Two immediate thoughts: it could be a well-thought through (and very high-risk) gamble to put pressure on her to gain more concessions from the EU in negotiations - "you have to give me something attractive I can sell, or me and my Government will fall".

    Or, the letters have been trickling in for a while and she might have simply just reached the threshold of pissing off too many people.

    This might not be unconnected to Boris's moves - the LoTO with portfolio - over recent weeks as well.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,851
    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    The MPs are idiots if they try and bring the PM down now, there’s much work to do on Brexit and no obvious successor lined up.

    May is showing signs of doctrinal weakness and sliding toward BINO. She has to be stoned to death by the toryban because of Brexit not despite it.
    Sliding towards Brexit in name only? What signs are those?
    He means "Boris In Name Only". Keep with the program*.

    * Spelt American-ly, 'cause I'm in LA.
    I get comments all the time back home that I'm starting to sound more and more American.

    It'll happen to you too, eventually.. :D
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 20,265

    Two immediate thoughts: it could be a well-thought through (and very high-risk) gamble to put pressure on her to gain more concessions from the EU in negotiations - "you have to give me something attractive I can sell, or me and my Government will fall".

    Or, the letters have been trickling in for a while and she might have simply just reached the threshold of pissing off too many people.

    This might not be unconnected to Boris's moves - the LoTO with portfolio - over recent weeks as well.

    One thing I've asked before, and not heard an answer to: how long do the letters remain current? Are they all counted from the beginning of a premiership, or are they only seen as being current for a year or two? Also, can they be rescinded by the sender?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,568
    edited January 25

    Two immediate thoughts: it could be a well-thought through (and very high-risk) gamble to put pressure on her to gain more concessions from the EU in negotiations - "you have to give me something attractive I can sell, or me and my Government will fall".

    Or, the letters have been trickling in for a while and she might have simply just reached the threshold of pissing off too many people.

    This might not be unconnected to Boris's moves - the LoTO with portfolio - over recent weeks as well.

    One thing I've asked before, and not heard an answer to: how long do the letters remain current? Are they all counted from the beginning of a premiership, or are they only seen as being current for a year or two? Also, can they be rescinded by the sender?
    An MP can ask for their letter back at any time, it’s valid until there’s a either a challenge or a change of leader.

    Party rules: http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN01366/SN01366.pdf
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 2,904

    So Henry Bolton could outlast Theresa May as a party leader?

    Yes, but Theresa May would actually have a party to be deposed from. Bolton would be sitting in a small room, the cake sitting on the table uncut, and with cobwebs bedecking the corner where all the presents should be piled. He will desultory blow on a party horn and scratch under the ripped paper crown.

    Meanwhile, May would be at a party with hundreds of people, loud music, and lots of lovely food. Then someone realises they're out of absinthe so, as leader, she's asked to go to the offy to get some. On the way out they pass her a handgun and place a target on her head, and once she's out they change all the locks. The party then continues.
    :lol:
  • RobDRobD Posts: 32,851

    Two immediate thoughts: it could be a well-thought through (and very high-risk) gamble to put pressure on her to gain more concessions from the EU in negotiations - "you have to give me something attractive I can sell, or me and my Government will fall".

    Or, the letters have been trickling in for a while and she might have simply just reached the threshold of pissing off too many people.

    This might not be unconnected to Boris's moves - the LoTO with portfolio - over recent weeks as well.

    One thing I've asked before, and not heard an answer to: how long do the letters remain current? Are they all counted from the beginning of a premiership, or are they only seen as being current for a year or two? Also, can they be rescinded by the sender?
    I'd be interested to hear the answer to this. I would have thought they would have been valid until rescinded, and the chairman just has to reach 15% for the vote of no confidence to take place.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 15,212

    Two immediate thoughts: it could be a well-thought through (and very high-risk) gamble to put pressure on her to gain more concessions from the EU in negotiations - "you have to give me something attractive I can sell, or me and my Government will fall".

    Or, the letters have been trickling in for a while and she might have simply just reached the threshold of pissing off too many people.

    This might not be unconnected to Boris's moves - the LoTO with portfolio - over recent weeks as well.

    I am not sure the timing works for that. The fact that the confidence vote is so immediate doesn't really give time either for the threat or for any concession even if EU leaders were minded to give any - which does not seem likely.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,613
    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    Oh God, not Boris.
    Please not Boris.

    +100
    The thing is, I quite like Boris. I feel a little dirty for doing so, but he does come across as likeable (to me, at least).

    However there are two major factors that make me doubt his ability to be a good PM:
    *) He has been in a position of power before as London mayor, and didn't do well. The Garden Bridge debacle in particular shows a very poor side to his character.
    *) His personal life has been (ahem) interesting, and I am far from sure it shows characteristics that would befit a PM.
    +1

    An affable buffoon works as a provincial mayor, doesn’t really work as foreign secretary and certainly wouldn’t work as prime minister. He’s clearly out of his depth in his current position.
    Good grief Sandpit. You're not going to make friends among Londoners with that remark!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,613
    On topic, while I am no fan of May it would be utter madness to move against May now.

    It would be the stupidest political decision since Beckett and Field nominated Corbyn for the Labour leadership.

    Therefore we must assume it is highly probable.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 14,167
    RobD said:

    Two immediate thoughts: it could be a well-thought through (and very high-risk) gamble to put pressure on her to gain more concessions from the EU in negotiations - "you have to give me something attractive I can sell, or me and my Government will fall".

    Or, the letters have been trickling in for a while and she might have simply just reached the threshold of pissing off too many people.

    This might not be unconnected to Boris's moves - the LoTO with portfolio - over recent weeks as well.

    One thing I've asked before, and not heard an answer to: how long do the letters remain current? Are they all counted from the beginning of a premiership, or are they only seen as being current for a year or two? Also, can they be rescinded by the sender?
    I'd be interested to hear the answer to this. I would have thought they would have been valid until rescinded, and the chairman just has to reach 15% for the vote of no confidence to take place.
    Yes, that's my reading too, and the inference of previous actions. The letters remain live in practice until a change of leader or a VoNC. A letter can be rescinded and there are cases on record where they have been.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 14,167
    On topic, I will be really annoyed if the story is true, which it may well be. The odds Mike quotes both look like value.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,613

    On topic, I will be really annoyed if the story is true, which it may well be. The odds Mike quotes both look like value.

    She has two priceless assets Major hadn't. There is no obvious alternative who would command wide support or do a better job (which doesn't say much for the current cabinet) and there is a risk with an election that Corbyn could end up in power, to which he is manifestly totally unsuited.

    I think she would win a vote of confidence but it would be very damaging for her personally and the government.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 26,620
    Looks like the Brexit Extremists have finally cottoned on to where things are heading. Throw in some mainstream exasperation at just how poor a leader May is and you may get the perfect storm.
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 272
    May had a relatively good few weeks before Christmas. Then back to the usual shambolic performance starting with the reshuffle.

    The tag team of her and Hammond at the top of government is one of the least inspiring or dynamic I can think of. Worse than that, her total lack of warmth means she seemingly struggles to keep colleagues on side when she has no natural authority.

    Whilst the country can hardly afford to change leadership if May keeps this up then there will quickly come a time when it can't afford not to.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 26,620

    Two immediate thoughts: it could be a well-thought through (and very high-risk) gamble to put pressure on her to gain more concessions from the EU in negotiations - "you have to give me something attractive I can sell, or me and my Government will fall".

    Or, the letters have been trickling in for a while and she might have simply just reached the threshold of pissing off too many people.

    This might not be unconnected to Boris's moves - the LoTO with portfolio - over recent weeks as well.

    I am not sure the timing works for that. The fact that the confidence vote is so immediate doesn't really give time either for the threat or for any concession even if EU leaders were minded to give any - which does not seem likely.

    The government will continue to be weak whoever leads it.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,812

    RobD said:

    Two immediate thoughts: it could be a well-thought through (and very high-risk) gamble to put pressure on her to gain more concessions from the EU in negotiations - "you have to give me something attractive I can sell, or me and my Government will fall".

    Or, the letters have been trickling in for a while and she might have simply just reached the threshold of pissing off too many people.

    This might not be unconnected to Boris's moves - the LoTO with portfolio - over recent weeks as well.

    One thing I've asked before, and not heard an answer to: how long do the letters remain current? Are they all counted from the beginning of a premiership, or are they only seen as being current for a year or two? Also, can they be rescinded by the sender?
    I'd be interested to hear the answer to this. I would have thought they would have been valid until rescinded, and the chairman just has to reach 15% for the vote of no confidence to take place.
    Yes, that's my reading too, and the inference of previous actions. The letters remain live in practice until a change of leader or a VoNC. A letter can be rescinded and there are cases on record where they have been.
    If they are getting near the edge then the pressure will be on those who have had letters in for some time who might be amenable to pressure. A politician might well have ensured that one or two of the new ministers appointed in the reshuffle might have been given a nod that their letter really ought to be rescinded given it was against a leader who has now recognised their shining potential. Of course that requires the politician to have a good idea who the letters were from and that is supposed to be confidential but a recently promoted ex chief Whip really should know.

    But all of this assumes a basic level of political competence that Mrs May has yet to demonstrate at any point since her premiership started. Not for the fifth time there is a real risk that she will blunder into something because of basic incompetence.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,532

    Two immediate thoughts: it could be a well-thought through (and very high-risk) gamble to put pressure on her to gain more concessions from the EU in negotiations - "you have to give me something attractive I can sell, or me and my Government will fall".

    Or, the letters have been trickling in for a while and she might have simply just reached the threshold of pissing off too many people.

    This might not be unconnected to Boris's moves - the LoTO with portfolio - over recent weeks as well.

    One thing I've asked before, and not heard an answer to: how long do the letters remain current? Are they all counted from the beginning of a premiership, or are they only seen as being current for a year or two? Also, can they be rescinded by the sender?
    I'm afraid I don't know the answer.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 6,489
    Good morning all.

    "Whom the Gods would destroy, they first make mad" would seem to apply here.

    Mind you, as the Davids have mentioned downthread, the Tories current algorithm appears to be 'Given a number of choices, pick the worst'. On that basis, they'll probably go for a VNC and hilarity will ensue.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 20,265
    Sandpit said:

    Two immediate thoughts: it could be a well-thought through (and very high-risk) gamble to put pressure on her to gain more concessions from the EU in negotiations - "you have to give me something attractive I can sell, or me and my Government will fall".

    Or, the letters have been trickling in for a while and she might have simply just reached the threshold of pissing off too many people.

    This might not be unconnected to Boris's moves - the LoTO with portfolio - over recent weeks as well.

    One thing I've asked before, and not heard an answer to: how long do the letters remain current? Are they all counted from the beginning of a premiership, or are they only seen as being current for a year or two? Also, can they be rescinded by the sender?
    An MP can ask for their letter back at any time, it’s valid until there’s a either a challenge or a change of leader.

    Party rules: http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN01366/SN01366.pdf
    Thanks, that's very interesting.

    I wonder about the edge cases: I assume that if someone is no longer an MP (e.g. through resignation, death or losing a seat at an election) then the letter is discarded. But I wonder what happens if an MP is suspended? Does the letter 'disappear' for the period of the resignation? Also, as the 1922 committee is of 'backbench' MPs (AIUI that means not ministers), does the letter 'disappear' if someone is promoted to the cabinet, and therefore is no longer in the 1922, and reappear if they leave cabinet? Or do the letters remain current?

    (And that brings another issue: is the PM told who has sent in letters? Might (s)he promote someone who has written in against them?)
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 26,620
    Corbyn in power now is a better prospect than Corbyn in power in four years time, believe me. There are constraints on him now - with regards to the PLP and EU membership - that may no longer be there in 2022.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,532

    Two immediate thoughts: it could be a well-thought through (and very high-risk) gamble to put pressure on her to gain more concessions from the EU in negotiations - "you have to give me something attractive I can sell, or me and my Government will fall".

    Or, the letters have been trickling in for a while and she might have simply just reached the threshold of pissing off too many people.

    This might not be unconnected to Boris's moves - the LoTO with portfolio - over recent weeks as well.

    I am not sure the timing works for that. The fact that the confidence vote is so immediate doesn't really give time either for the threat or for any concession even if EU leaders were minded to give any - which does not seem likely.
    It depends how close to the margin Brady thinks it is.

    If he already has a lot, and just a further half-dozen would tip it, and they are holding off until the Government shows its hand in the next round of talks, then it could be.

    If it's a sudden surge, then no.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,812

    Corbyn in power now is a better prospect than Corbyn in power in four years time, believe me. There are constraints on him now - with regards to the PLP and EU membership - that may no longer be there in 2022.

    Nah, we are well past peak Corbyn and like the rest of us he gets older by the day. In 4 years time he will have his feet up with a cuppa and a copy of the Socialist Worker.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,812

    Sandpit said:

    Two immediate thoughts: it could be a well-thought through (and very high-risk) gamble to put pressure on her to gain more concessions from the EU in negotiations - "you have to give me something attractive I can sell, or me and my Government will fall".

    Or, the letters have been trickling in for a while and she might have simply just reached the threshold of pissing off too many people.

    This might not be unconnected to Boris's moves - the LoTO with portfolio - over recent weeks as well.

    One thing I've asked before, and not heard an answer to: how long do the letters remain current? Are they all counted from the beginning of a premiership, or are they only seen as being current for a year or two? Also, can they be rescinded by the sender?
    An MP can ask for their letter back at any time, it’s valid until there’s a either a challenge or a change of leader.

    Party rules: http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN01366/SN01366.pdf
    Thanks, that's very interesting.

    I wonder about the edge cases: I assume that if someone is no longer an MP (e.g. through resignation, death or losing a seat at an election) then the letter is discarded. But I wonder what happens if an MP is suspended? Does the letter 'disappear' for the period of the resignation? Also, as the 1922 committee is of 'backbench' MPs (AIUI that means not ministers), does the letter 'disappear' if someone is promoted to the cabinet, and therefore is no longer in the 1922, and reappear if they leave cabinet? Or do the letters remain current?

    (And that brings another issue: is the PM told who has sent in letters? Might (s)he promote someone who has written in against them?)
    I can't see how a letter from an ex MP has any standing. But I don't see why a Minister might not have a letter in, whether in the Cabinet or no.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,532

    May had a relatively good few weeks before Christmas. Then back to the usual shambolic performance starting with the reshuffle.

    The tag team of her and Hammond at the top of government is one of the least inspiring or dynamic I can think of. Worse than that, her total lack of warmth means she seemingly struggles to keep colleagues on side when she has no natural authority.

    Whilst the country can hardly afford to change leadership if May keeps this up then there will quickly come a time when it can't afford not to.

    All of May's reboots have failed. She can't reboot. She's incapable of it.

    But the time for this is Summer next year, not now.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,532
    DavidL said:

    Corbyn in power now is a better prospect than Corbyn in power in four years time, believe me. There are constraints on him now - with regards to the PLP and EU membership - that may no longer be there in 2022.

    Nah, we are well past peak Corbyn and like the rest of us he gets older by the day. In 4 years time he will have his feet up with a cuppa and a copy of the Socialist Worker.
    I think Corbyn would win an election this year.

    Inhibit/halt/2nd ref on Brexit and Save the NHS would be enough to carry him over the line.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 356
    Its only 6 years since his last sacking from the Cabinet....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,613

    Corbyn in power now is a better prospect than Corbyn in power in four years time, believe me. There are constraints on him now - with regards to the PLP and EU membership - that may no longer be there in 2022.

    Corbyn in 4 years will be 73. The chances of him getting into power at that age will be remote and the chances of him staying for any length of time much remoter.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,812

    DavidL said:

    Corbyn in power now is a better prospect than Corbyn in power in four years time, believe me. There are constraints on him now - with regards to the PLP and EU membership - that may no longer be there in 2022.

    Nah, we are well past peak Corbyn and like the rest of us he gets older by the day. In 4 years time he will have his feet up with a cuppa and a copy of the Socialist Worker.
    I think Corbyn would win an election this year.

    Inhibit/halt/2nd ref on Brexit and Save the NHS would be enough to carry him over the line.
    I agree. The danger is now and the government needs to keep the head to avert it.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 794

    RobD said:

    Two immediate thoughts: it could be a well-thought through (and very high-risk) gamble to put pressure on her to gain more concessions from the EU in negotiations - "you have to give me something attractive I can sell, or me and my Government will fall".

    Or, the letters have been trickling in for a while and she might have simply just reached the threshold of pissing off too many people.

    This might not be unconnected to Boris's moves - the LoTO with portfolio - over recent weeks as well.

    One thing I've asked before, and not heard an answer to: how long do the letters remain current? Are they all counted from the beginning of a premiership, or are they only seen as being current for a year or two? Also, can they be rescinded by the sender?
    I'd be interested to hear the answer to this. I would have thought they would have been valid until rescinded, and the chairman just has to reach 15% for the vote of no confidence to take place.
    Yes, that's my reading too, and the inference of previous actions. The letters remain live in practice until a change of leader or a VoNC. A letter can be rescinded and there are cases on record where they have been.
    I wonder if I asked this before, and it's probably academic, but did the GE reset the letter count to zero (as there ceased to be any backbench MPs at dissolution, although not ministers).
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,812
    O/T an interesting graph of attendees at Davos:

    Despite the remarkable boycott by Robert Smithson the UK has more attendees than China and Germany put together. Not sure what that proves but we are second only to the States.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 26,620
    ydoethur said:

    Corbyn in power now is a better prospect than Corbyn in power in four years time, believe me. There are constraints on him now - with regards to the PLP and EU membership - that may no longer be there in 2022.

    Corbyn in 4 years will be 73. The chances of him getting into power at that age will be remote and the chances of him staying for any length of time much remoter.

    I don’t think he’ll ever win an election. But if he were going to, he’d do less damage now than he would if he were to win sfter Brexit and after a series of deslections.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,613

    DavidL said:

    Corbyn in power now is a better prospect than Corbyn in power in four years time, believe me. There are constraints on him now - with regards to the PLP and EU membership - that may no longer be there in 2022.

    Nah, we are well past peak Corbyn and like the rest of us he gets older by the day. In 4 years time he will have his feet up with a cuppa and a copy of the Socialist Worker.
    I think Corbyn would win an election this year.

    Inhibit/halt/2nd ref on Brexit and Save the NHS would be enough to carry him over the line.
    Corbyn is a Brexiteer. I know he's said otherwise but his claims are pretty unconvincing when measured against his actions. In an election fought solely on Brexit a Conservative leader who isn't JRM might actually come across as the moderate seeking modified access vs Corbyn who clearly wants a total rupture.

    The NHS is a far better bet for him. However, he would probably need costed proposals this time and so far neither he nor any of his current shadow cabinet have shown the ability to come up with sensible figures.

    It would therefore depend largely on who the Conservatives put up and what their manifesto said. But I don't think an election for Corbyn is a gimme even under these circumstances.

    The thing I would bet on is record turnout.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,096
    The anarchist in me is coming round to thinking "oh sod it, give Boris a go. The way things look, he can only surprise on the upside. And if he's shit at the job, well, he can still be replaced before the 2022 election - having truly owned Brexit...."

    The anarchist in me really shouldn't be allowed out alone though.

  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 272
    edited January 25

    May had a relatively good few weeks before Christmas. Then back to the usual shambolic performance starting with the reshuffle.

    The tag team of her and Hammond at the top of government is one of the least inspiring or dynamic I can think of. Worse than that, her total lack of warmth means she seemingly struggles to keep colleagues on side when she has no natural authority.

    Whilst the country can hardly afford to change leadership if May keeps this up then there will quickly come a time when it can't afford not to.

    All of May's reboots have failed. She can't reboot. She's incapable of it.

    But the time for this is Summer next year, not now.
    Agree but another 18 months of May and Hammond? I can't see it currently.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    We've been here before.

    Nothing has changed.

    Nothing has changed.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,996
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Corbyn in power now is a better prospect than Corbyn in power in four years time, believe me. There are constraints on him now - with regards to the PLP and EU membership - that may no longer be there in 2022.

    Nah, we are well past peak Corbyn and like the rest of us he gets older by the day. In 4 years time he will have his feet up with a cuppa and a copy of the Socialist Worker.
    I think Corbyn would win an election this year.

    Inhibit/halt/2nd ref on Brexit and Save the NHS would be enough to carry him over the line.
    Corbyn is a Brexiteer. I know he's said otherwise but his claims are pretty unconvincing when measured against his actions. In an election fought solely on Brexit a Conservative leader who isn't JRM might actually come across as the moderate seeking modified access vs Corbyn who clearly wants a total rupture.

    The NHS is a far better bet for him. However, he would probably need costed proposals this time and so far neither he nor any of his current shadow cabinet have shown the ability to come up with sensible figures.

    It would therefore depend largely on who the Conservatives put up and what their manifesto said. But I don't think an election for Corbyn is a gimme even under these circumstances.

    The thing I would bet on is record turnout.
    I am not so sure. The party will follow public opinion and ultimately Corbyn will follow his party, if it is to his and their advantage. He compromised on Trident, which he cares much more about than Brexit, after all.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,812

    The anarchist in me is coming round to thinking "oh sod it, give Boris a go. The way things look, he can only surprise on the upside. And if he's shit at the job, well, he can still be replaced before the 2022 election - having truly owned Brexit...."

    The anarchist in me really shouldn't be allowed out alone though.

    He won't be alone. Whilst I am concerned about any further weakening of an already chronically weak government during the Brexit negotiations I really wonder if we can go on like this. With hindsight she should have been removed immediately after the election fiasco.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 5,975

    The anarchist in me is coming round to thinking "oh sod it, give Boris a go. The way things look, he can only surprise on the upside. And if he's shit at the job, well, he can still be replaced before the 2022 election - having truly owned Brexit...."

    The anarchist in me really shouldn't be allowed out alone though.

    True, he's thinking about things from a purely Tory party point of view - what about what's best for the country?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 18,568

    Sandpit said:

    Two immediate thoughts: it could be a well-thought through (and very high-risk) gamble to put pressure on her to gain more concessions from the EU in negotiations - "you have to give me something attractive I can sell, or me and my Government will fall".

    Or, the letters have been trickling in for a while and she might have simply just reached the threshold of pissing off too many people.

    This might not be unconnected to Boris's moves - the LoTO with portfolio - over recent weeks as well.

    One thing I've asked before, and not heard an answer to: how long do the letters remain current? Are they all counted from the beginning of a premiership, or are they only seen as being current for a year or two? Also, can they be rescinded by the sender?
    An MP can ask for their letter back at any time, it’s valid until there’s a either a challenge or a change of leader.

    Party rules: http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN01366/SN01366.pdf
    Thanks, that's very interesting.

    I wonder about the edge cases: I assume that if someone is no longer an MP (e.g. through resignation, death or losing a seat at an election) then the letter is discarded. But I wonder what happens if an MP is suspended? Does the letter 'disappear' for the period of the resignation? Also, as the 1922 committee is of 'backbench' MPs (AIUI that means not ministers), does the letter 'disappear' if someone is promoted to the cabinet, and therefore is no longer in the 1922, and reappear if they leave cabinet? Or do the letters remain current?

    (And that brings another issue: is the PM told who has sent in letters? Might (s)he promote someone who has written in against them?)
    I like your thinking re: edge cases.

    Suspended is the interesting one, as it could possibly lead to suspension of someone under false pretences, a planted story etc. The leadership is a party matter, so I’d be surprised if someone’s job in government or cabinet was a barrier to writing a letter (although a bit of a crappy thing to leave one there when you’ve just had a promotion). Leader I don’t think officially informed until the challenge is confirmed, but probably a lot of whispers using the chief whip as a go-between in the meantime.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 20,265
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Two immediate thoughts: it could be a well-thought through (and very high-risk) gamble to put pressure on her to gain more concessions from the EU in negotiations - "you have to give me something attractive I can sell, or me and my Government will fall".

    Or, the letters have been trickling in for a while and she might have simply just reached the threshold of pissing off too many people.

    This might not be unconnected to Boris's moves - the LoTO with portfolio - over recent weeks as well.

    One thing I've asked before, and not heard an answer to: how long do the letters remain current? Are they all counted from the beginning of a premiership, or are they only seen as being current for a year or two? Also, can they be rescinded by the sender?
    An MP can ask for their letter back at any time, it’s valid until there’s a either a challenge or a change of leader.

    Party rules: http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN01366/SN01366.pdf
    Thanks, that's very interesting.

    I wonder about the edge cases: I assume that if someone is no longer an MP (e.g. through resignation, death or losing a seat at an election) then the letter is discarded. But I wonder what happens if an MP is suspended? Does the letter 'disappear' for the period of the resignation? Also, as the 1922 committee is of 'backbench' MPs (AIUI that means not ministers), does the letter 'disappear' if someone is promoted to the cabinet, and therefore is no longer in the 1922, and reappear if they leave cabinet? Or do the letters remain current?

    (And that brings another issue: is the PM told who has sent in letters? Might (s)he promote someone who has written in against them?)
    I like your thinking re: edge cases.

    Suspended is the interesting one, as it could possibly lead to suspension of someone under false pretences, a planted story etc. The leadership is a party matter, so I’d be surprised if someone’s job in government or cabinet was a barrier to writing a letter (although a bit of a crappy thing to leave one there when you’ve just had a promotion). Leader I don’t think officially informed until the challenge is confirmed, but probably a lot of whispers using the chief whip as a go-between in the meantime.
    As the 1922 committee is of backbench MPs, surely Brady cannot include letters from MPs who are not backbench MPs?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 9,996
    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    Oh God, not Boris.
    Please not Boris.

    +100
    The thing is, I quite like Boris. I feel a little dirty for doing so, but he does come across as likeable (to me, at least).

    However there are two major factors that make me doubt his ability to be a good PM:
    *) He has been in a position of power before as London mayor, and didn't do well. The Garden Bridge debacle in particular shows a very poor side to his character.
    *) His personal life has been (ahem) interesting, and I am far from sure it shows characteristics that would befit a PM.
    +1

    An affable buffoon works as a provincial mayor, doesn’t really work as foreign secretary and certainly wouldn’t work as prime minister. He’s clearly out of his depth in his current position.

    Plenty more skeletons likely to come out too, If his own wife doesn’t trust him then why should the rest of us?
    'Works' is arguable. All he was really interested in were grand schemes that he could put his name on, whether they made any sense or not, and having a laugh. He had little interest in the day job of working with local authorities to tackle the difficult stuff like planning and housing, or taking his responsibilities seriously when he was dealing with the elected Assembly.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 26,620
    “Wants” is very different to “will get”. You’d have thought even the Minister for Winging It might have worked that out by now. Though after yesterday’s embarrassing performance maybe not.

  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 5,975
    I wonder if it's common knowledge amongst Tory MPs how many letters have already been received. If it isn't then one MP who takes against the PM for any reason could accidentally trigger the ballot.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,096

    The anarchist in me is coming round to thinking "oh sod it, give Boris a go. The way things look, he can only surprise on the upside. And if he's shit at the job, well, he can still be replaced before the 2022 election - having truly owned Brexit...."

    The anarchist in me really shouldn't be allowed out alone though.

    True, he's thinking about things from a purely Tory party point of view - what about what's best for the country?
    Nah, he's thinking about things purely from a "what would be the best entertaintment?" point of view.....

    Alternatively, the Conservative Party should outflank Corbyn on the left. We could be governed by an anarcho-syndicalist commune. (Although some might suggest - what's new?)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 18,096

    I wonder if it's common knowledge amongst Tory MPs how many letters have already been received. If it isn't then one MP who takes against the PM for any reason could accidentally trigger the ballot.

    With only one letter needed, Brady probably moves his post-box around to a point known only to him and the Cumbrian hill-farmer who hosts the milk-churn.

    Of more interest is if he so close to the margin, that the 15% is reached accidentally, by an MP losing the whip or dropping down dead.

    What larks, Pip!
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 8,571
    Betting post -- Betfair has two markets for Theresa May's exit date: one by year and the other by quarter. At the time of writing, May is odds-on to go in 2018 in the first market, but you can get odds-against by backing all four quarters in the second. Obviously there is not much volume there.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,599
    IanB2 said:



    I am not so sure. The party will follow public opinion and ultimately Corbyn will follow his party, if it is to his and their advantage. He compromised on Trident, which he cares much more about than Brexit, after all.

    That's exactly right IMO.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 2,334
    May is hopeless, but the earliest sensible time for a leadership change would be this summer. The transition deal will be in the bag, local elections will be done, and very little progress will have been made on the EU-UK future relationship talks.

    Before that is madness.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,812
    The rise in Sterling is becoming genuinely concerning. The BoE really should be trying to stop it before it chokes off the recovery in exports. Trump and the US have made it clear they want a weak dollar to resolve their trade deficit. We need the same. The Euro has been stronger but we are now gaining against that too.

    The problem is partly caused by a stream of good news (or at least substantially less bad than feared news) on the economy in recent weeks, the latest of which was the remarkable increase in employment yesterday. An interest rate increase this year already looks more likely than a couple of weeks ago. I am not sure I see that changing in the near term. Its possible that some real instability in the government might reduce the upward pressure but it would not be a cost free option.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 10,599
    Incidentally, this surely adds to our list of useless election-related systems. The idea that you gradually fill up a vase with a trickle of water (people feeling annoyed about this or that at some point) and when it's 15% full you suddenly call a vote of no confidence is just bonkers. Quite possibly there are letters in there from years ago that the authors have even forgotten they've written.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 2,334

    Incidentally, this surely adds to our list of useless election-related systems. The idea that you gradually fill up a vase with a trickle of water (people feeling annoyed about this or that at some point) and when it's 15% full you suddenly call a vote of no confidence is just bonkers. Quite possibly there are letters in there from years ago that the authors have even forgotten they've written.

    When the Tories elect someone as unsuitable as Jeremy Corbyn as their leader, then you may crow about the system :tongue:

    It would make sense to reset the count every 12 months to avoid the problem you describe.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 20,265
    edited January 25

    Incidentally, this surely adds to our list of useless election-related systems. The idea that you gradually fill up a vase with a trickle of water (people feeling annoyed about this or that at some point) and when it's 15% full you suddenly call a vote of no confidence is just bonkers. Quite possibly there are letters in there from years ago that the authors have even forgotten they've written.

    I'm unsure it's bonkers. I can imagine that the chair of the 1922 would contact people who had 'old' letters and ask them if the letter was still current. At least, it's the way I'd do it if I wanted to avoid a leadership election - as any sane Tory must do atm.

    When you think about it, Brady actually has quite a bit of power.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 9,989

    IanB2 said:



    I am not so sure. The party will follow public opinion and ultimately Corbyn will follow his party, if it is to his and their advantage. He compromised on Trident, which he cares much more about than Brexit, after all.

    That's exactly right IMO.
    Trident doesn't prevent his entire approach to economics (a mix of 1810s and 1970).
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,812

    Incidentally, this surely adds to our list of useless election-related systems. The idea that you gradually fill up a vase with a trickle of water (people feeling annoyed about this or that at some point) and when it's 15% full you suddenly call a vote of no confidence is just bonkers. Quite possibly there are letters in there from years ago that the authors have even forgotten they've written.

    Surely an MP would remember if they have written a letter of no confidence in the PM? Doing such a thing would be a major step as I suspect confidence about it remaining confidential will be very limited. Its not something anyone would do on a whim because of the career implications. Some sort of time limitation with an obligation to renew might be sensible, however.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,613

    IanB2 said:



    I am not so sure. The party will follow public opinion and ultimately Corbyn will follow his party, if it is to his and their advantage. He compromised on Trident, which he cares much more about than Brexit, after all.

    That's exactly right IMO.
    The problem is that Trident is clear cut. At this moment Brexit/Remain is still very evenly divided.

    It is however fair to point out that Corbyn's successful evasion of this issue last year was one of the most impressive political gambits of recent times. It may have been more luck than skill, but it was still breathtaking.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 20,125
    I would have thought that this story would encourage rather than discourage further letters.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,613
    RoyalBlue said:

    Incidentally, this surely adds to our list of useless election-related systems. The idea that you gradually fill up a vase with a trickle of water (people feeling annoyed about this or that at some point) and when it's 15% full you suddenly call a vote of no confidence is just bonkers. Quite possibly there are letters in there from years ago that the authors have even forgotten they've written.

    When the Tories elect someone as unsuitable as Jeremy Corbyn as their leader, then you may crow about the system :tongue:
    He's already got that right - he was in Parliament when you were led by Iain Duncan Smith.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 5,575
    edited January 25

    I would have thought that this story would encourage rather than discourage further letters.

    Yes The Tory party knows how to commit hari-kiri.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,613

    any sane Tory

    This is the party that made BoJo Foreign Secretary.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,812
    ydoethur said:

    any sane Tory

    This is the party that made BoJo Foreign Secretary.
    Hopefully nothing will ever beat electing IDS as leader. I mean, bloody hell.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,820

    Sandpit said:

    Two immediate thoughts: it could be a well-thought through (and very high-risk) gamble to put pressure on her to gain more concessions from the EU in negotiations - "you have to give me something attractive I can sell, or me and my Government will fall".

    Or, the letters have been trickling in for a while and she might have simply just reached the threshold of pissing off too many people.

    This might not be unconnected to Boris's moves - the LoTO with portfolio - over recent weeks as well.

    One thing I've asked before, and not heard an answer to: how long do the letters remain current? Are they all counted from the beginning of a premiership, or are they only seen as being current for a year or two? Also, can they be rescinded by the sender?
    An MP can ask for their letter back at any time, it’s valid until there’s a either a challenge or a change of leader.

    Party rules: http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN01366/SN01366.pdf
    Thanks, that's very interesting.

    I wonder about the edge cases: I assume that if someone is no longer an MP (e.g. through resignation, death or losing a seat at an election) then the letter is discarded. But I wonder what happens if an MP is suspended? Does the letter 'disappear' for the period of the resignation? Also, as the 1922 committee is of 'backbench' MPs (AIUI that means not ministers), does the letter 'disappear' if someone is promoted to the cabinet, and therefore is no longer in the 1922, and reappear if they leave cabinet? Or do the letters remain current?

    (And that brings another issue: is the PM told who has sent in letters? Might (s)he promote someone who has written in against them?)
    Letters are from MPs not from backbencher so ministers can write as well (although that would be a brave move). The chairman of the 22 is just an independent moderator
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 19,820
    DavidL said:

    The anarchist in me is coming round to thinking "oh sod it, give Boris a go. The way things look, he can only surprise on the upside. And if he's shit at the job, well, he can still be replaced before the 2022 election - having truly owned Brexit...."

    The anarchist in me really shouldn't be allowed out alone though.

    He won't be alone. Whilst I am concerned about any further weakening of an already chronically weak government during the Brexit negotiations I really wonder if we can go on like this. With hindsight she should have been removed immediately after the election fiasco.
    Although, somehow, we got an ok round 1 deal...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 10,613
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    any sane Tory

    This is the party that made BoJo Foreign Secretary.
    Hopefully nothing will ever beat electing IDS as leader. I mean, bloody hell.
    Yes but that was some time ago. Anyone can make 1 mistake nearly 20 years ago. I was thinking of the here and now.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 24,532

    “Wants” is very different to “will get”. You’d have thought even the Minister for Winging It might have worked that out by now. Though after yesterday’s embarrassing performance maybe not.

    I'm not sure that is at odds.

    The EU have said we need their permission to sign trade deals during the transition, not to negotiate them. We'll be a third country after all.

    This says we'd then sign on the dotted line immediately after it ends. Which would be fine.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 20,812
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    any sane Tory

    This is the party that made BoJo Foreign Secretary.
    Hopefully nothing will ever beat electing IDS as leader. I mean, bloody hell.
    Yes but that was some time ago. Anyone can make 1 mistake nearly 20 years ago. I was thinking of the here and now.
    Anyone? The whole party did with an alternative choice of one of the most competent Ministers in recent years with a truly vast range of experience and knowledge including a successful period as Chancellor. The Tory party was truly and profoundly sick in those times. Hopefully Brexit is the cure.

    Right now May, like any PM, has to balance the interests in the party. Boris had just led a successful referendum against the PM and the Chancellor. He had to be given a significant post. Would you rather he had been Chancellor?
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,680

    “Wants” is very different to “will get”. You’d have thought even the Minister for Winging It might have worked that out by now. Though after yesterday’s embarrassing performance maybe not.

    I'm not sure that is at odds.

    The EU have said we need their permission to sign trade deals during the transition, not to negotiate them. We'll be a third country after all.

    This says we'd then sign on the dotted line immediately after it ends. Which would be fine.
    Let's just sign them anyway. What's the EU going to do, kick us out?
  • Cheerio.

    Don’t let the door hit your arse on the way out.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 20,265
    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Two immediate thoughts: it could be a well-thought through (and very high-risk) gamble to put pressure on her to gain more concessions from the EU in negotiations - "you have to give me something attractive I can sell, or me and my Government will fall".

    Or, the letters have been trickling in for a while and she might have simply just reached the threshold of pissing off too many people.

    This might not be unconnected to Boris's moves - the LoTO with portfolio - over recent weeks as well.

    One thing I've asked before, and not heard an answer to: how long do the letters remain current? Are they all counted from the beginning of a premiership, or are they only seen as being current for a year or two? Also, can they be rescinded by the sender?
    An MP can ask for their letter back at any time, it’s valid until there’s a either a challenge or a change of leader.

    Party rules: http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN01366/SN01366.pdf
    Thanks, that's very interesting.

    I wonder about the edge cases: I assume that if someone is no longer an MP (e.g. through resignation, death or losing a seat at an election) then the letter is discarded. But I wonder what happens if an MP is suspended? Does the letter 'disappear' for the period of the resignation? Also, as the 1922 committee is of 'backbench' MPs (AIUI that means not ministers), does the letter 'disappear' if someone is promoted to the cabinet, and therefore is no longer in the 1922, and reappear if they leave cabinet? Or do the letters remain current?

    (And that brings another issue: is the PM told who has sent in letters? Might (s)he promote someone who has written in against them?)
    Letters are from MPs not from backbencher so ministers can write as well (although that would be a brave move). The chairman of the 22 is just an independent moderator
    That's brilliant, thanks.
  • TonyETonyE Posts: 938

    The anarchist in me is coming round to thinking "oh sod it, give Boris a go. The way things look, he can only surprise on the upside. And if he's shit at the job, well, he can still be replaced before the 2022 election - having truly owned Brexit...."

    The anarchist in me really shouldn't be allowed out alone though.

    True, he's thinking about things from a purely Tory party point of view - what about what's best for the country?
    Oddly, I think the process would be more orderly under Boris. Firstly, he knows he could sell a slightly less dramatic Brexit to the party through force of personality, so it could be that the civil service will be able to work more smoothly without continual party pressure between ministers.

    Secondly, he won't be in hock to people like Hammond or Rudd - he could simply remove them if he needed to. May is weak and cannot remove a weak chancellor and a very pro remain Home Sec.
  • Why now?

    Punishment for that reshuffle/trying to make Gavin Williamson her successor.

    Plus she’s lost the hardcore Brexiteers.

    Cf JRM v David Davis yesterday.
  • No Theresa is better than a bad Theresa.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 43,710
    Good morning, everyone.

    The timing of this is bloody stupid. (I had a bet on her going in 2017).
  • alex.alex. Posts: 2,845
    If a confidence vote comes about via a drip drip process, rather than a co-ordinated move in numbers, then it shouldn't be too difficult to see it off i should think. 15% of the parliamentary party isn't a huge amount. I can't think that any of the potential replacements would want a confidence vote to happen like that.

    Just on a matter of technicalites suppose there are 301 MPs and the 15% threshold is therefore 46 MPs. And 45 letters had been submitted. What would happen if one of the (non letter writing MPs) lost the whip/quit/died etc? Without any extra letters going in, the threshold would have been reached.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 13,741

    “Wants” is very different to “will get”. You’d have thought even the Minister for Winging It might have worked that out by now. Though after yesterday’s embarrassing performance maybe not.

    I'm not sure that is at odds.

    The EU have said we need their permission to sign trade deals during the transition, not to negotiate them. We'll be a third country after all.

    This says we'd then sign on the dotted line immediately after it ends. Which would be fine.
    I thought they said we'd need their permission for them to take force during transition. Nothing stopping us from signing deals that take effect from the moment transition ends.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 13,741
    TonyE said:

    The anarchist in me is coming round to thinking "oh sod it, give Boris a go. The way things look, he can only surprise on the upside. And if he's shit at the job, well, he can still be replaced before the 2022 election - having truly owned Brexit...."

    The anarchist in me really shouldn't be allowed out alone though.

    True, he's thinking about things from a purely Tory party point of view - what about what's best for the country?
    Oddly, I think the process would be more orderly under Boris. Firstly, he knows he could sell a slightly less dramatic Brexit to the party through force of personality, so it could be that the civil service will be able to work more smoothly without continual party pressure between ministers.

    Secondly, he won't be in hock to people like Hammond or Rudd - he could simply remove them if he needed to. May is weak and cannot remove a weak chancellor and a very pro remain Home Sec.
    Thanks to Theresa and her botched election any successor will be weak.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 8,571
    DavidL said:

    The rise in Sterling is becoming genuinely concerning. The BoE really should be trying to stop it before it chokes off the recovery in exports. Trump and the US have made it clear they want a weak dollar to resolve their trade deficit. We need the same. The Euro has been stronger but we are now gaining against that too.

    The problem is partly caused by a stream of good news (or at least substantially less bad than feared news) on the economy in recent weeks, the latest of which was the remarkable increase in employment yesterday. An interest rate increase this year already looks more likely than a couple of weeks ago. I am not sure I see that changing in the near term. Its possible that some real instability in the government might reduce the upward pressure but it would not be a cost free option.

    It seems like only yesterday the "exchange rate as virility symbol" mob were cheering sterling's rise against the dollar and deploring its fall against the euro.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,130
    I don't mind her getting canned, but there is no obvious successor.
This discussion has been closed.