politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The fight to succeed TMay – part 127

System · January 2018

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The fight to succeed TMay – part 127

S Times story on Gavin Williamson won't help his leadership ambitions pic.twitter.com/8Qe27jaa2q

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Mortimer · January 2018

First, like Mrs May.

dixiedean · January 2018

Second. What is a Buccaneering Brexit when it's at home?

Foxy · January 2018

dixiedean said:
Second. What is a Buccaneering Brexit when it's at home?

Robbery to begin, the gallows at the end.

Jonathan · January 2018

Mortimer said:
First, like Mrs May.

First to walk the plank. Raise the Jolly Roger.

AndyJS · January 2018

Remember the famous quote about politics being a choice between the unpalatable and the disastrous? I don't think that's ever been as true as it is now with Corbyn and May.

rpjs · January 2018

dixiedean said:
Second. What is a Buccaneering Brexit when it's at home?

One that gets declared “the common enemy of mankind” and ends up hanging from the yard-arm?

Jonathan · January 2018

Yo BoJo and a bottle of rum.

William_H · January 2018

Can Rudd really win the members vote?

TheJezziah · January 2018

From a Labour POV I can't say I'd be unhappy against any of those, not saying it is a foregone conclusion but they could each end up putting off parts of their own base or driving more people to Labour.

It may be enough without it if Corbyn sheds votes but would anybody be really confident about any of those in the betting even getting as many votes as May did election just gone?

Mortimer · January 2018

William_H said:
Can Rudd really win the members vote?

Short answer, no. She loses to just about anyone.

Jonathan · January 2018

Live from Boris HQ.

https://youtu.be/bIXQFaEsvlQ

MikeSmithson · January 2018

TheJezziah said:
From a Labour POV I can't say I'd be unhappy against any of those, not saying it is a foregone conclusion but they could each end up putting off parts of their own base or driving more people to Labour.

It may be enough without it if Corbyn sheds votes but would anybody be really confident about any of those in the betting even getting as many votes as May did election just gone?

But Corbyn is a liability as long as Seamus remains his sidekick.

Richard_Tyndall · January 2018

AndyJS said:
Remember the famous quote about politics being a choice between the unpalatable and the disastrous? I don't think that's ever been as true as it is now with Corbyn and May.

Trouble is I can't tell which one would be which.

TheJezziah · January 2018

MikeSmithson said:

TheJezziah said:
From a Labour POV I can't say I'd be unhappy against any of those, not saying it is a foregone conclusion but they could each end up putting off parts of their own base or driving more people to Labour.

It may be enough without it if Corbyn sheds votes but would anybody be really confident about any of those in the betting even getting as many votes as May did election just gone?
But Corbyn is a liability as long as Seamus remains his sidekick.

From what I understand he is something of a strategic adviser, hard to know what to credit him with or not but the overall strategy has been pretty effective.

In terms of with the public in regards to voting I can't imagine someone as low profile as him (compared with Corbyn or front benches) making any impact on any but a very small minority... who would have probably made that decision in the previous election anyway.

MikeSmithson · January 2018

TheJezziah said:

MikeSmithson said:

TheJezziah said:
From a Labour POV I can't say I'd be unhappy against any of those, not saying it is a foregone conclusion but they could each end up putting off parts of their own base or driving more people to Labour.

It may be enough without it if Corbyn sheds votes but would anybody be really confident about any of those in the betting even getting as many votes as May did election just gone?
But Corbyn is a liability as long as Seamus remains his sidekick.
From what I understand he is something of a strategic adviser, hard to know what to credit him with or not but the overall strategy has been pretty effective.

In terms of with the public in regards to voting I can't imagine someone as low profile as him (compared with Corbyn or front benches) making any impact on any but a very small minority... who would have probably made that decision in the previous election anyway.

It is the advice he gives and the influence he had that is the problem. Seamus is the Nick Timothy of the LAB leadership.

As a general rule don't look at the next election through the prism of the last one.

bigjohnowls · January 2018

Mortimer said:
First, like Mrs May.

Ie first to turn a 20% lead into NOM

HYUFD · January 2018

I think May still survives until Brexit is completed, just but it looks like Mogg and maybe Gove too are coming in behind Boris on a ticket of limiting the extent of any transition period and selling Brexit more positively, Rudd will be the candidate of Remainers and Hammond will likely back her. If Williamson is hit by this some of the Mayites backing him could shift to Davis or Hunt

HYUFD · January 2018

TheJezziah said:
From a Labour POV I can't say I'd be unhappy against any of those, not saying it is a foregone conclusion but they could each end up putting off parts of their own base or driving more people to Labour.

It may be enough without it if Corbyn sheds votes but would anybody be really confident about any of those in the betting even getting as many votes as May did election just gone?

Technically the Tories could tie Labour at the next general election in votes and still win more seats, though Corbyn would likely do a deal with the SNP and maybe Plaid and the Greens too to form a government

hunchman · January 2018

Anyone who knows anything about Amber Rudd and her past business career knows she shouldn't be an MP let alone home secretary touting for the top job.

TheJezziah · January 2018

MikeSmithson said:

It is the advice he gives and the influence he had that is the problem. Seamus is the Nick Timothy of the LAB leadership.

As a general rule don't look at the next election through the prism of the last one.

I can't say I know a great deal about him, that he is intelligent is one of the main things that has stuck although that doesn't necessarily contradict what you are saying. I have heard one or two things such as him being the one to get Corbyn to smarten his image up and was part of his relaunch at the start of the year. Which all seemed to work well.

I wouldn't know enough to argue you are wrong though, what do you think it is he has already advised or will advise that will/has become/been a drag?

HYUFD said:

Technically the Tories could tie Labour at the next general election in votes and still win more seats, though Corbyn would likely do a deal with the SNP and maybe Plaid and the Greens too to form a government

The Tories could have an incredibly efficient vote or Labour could but I wouldn't imagine there would be huge changes in the overall voters per seat just getting slightly better or worse for Labour or the Tories depending who is gaining and who is losing.

Rather than point scoring it is a genuine question could you see any of those matching May's total? they could of course still win and even improve on that current seat total. I was thinking more of the overall ability to attract votes, how they spread is the more important part of course, as Mrs Clinton knows.

HYUFD · January 2018

TheJezziah said:

MikeSmithson said:

It is the advice he gives and the influence he had that is the problem. Seamus is the Nick Timothy of the LAB leadership.

As a general rule don't look at the next election through the prism of the last one.
I can't say I know a great deal about him, that he is intelligent is one of the main things that has stuck although that doesn't necessarily contradict what you are saying. I have heard one or two things such as him being the one to get Corbyn to smarten his image up and was part of his relaunch at the start of the year. Which all seemed to work well.

I wouldn't know enough to argue you are wrong though, what do you think it is he has already advised or will advise that will/has become/been a drag?
HYUFD said:

Technically the Tories could tie Labour at the next general election in votes and still win more seats, though Corbyn would likely do a deal with the SNP and maybe Plaid and the Greens too to form a government
The Tories could have an incredibly efficient vote or Labour could but I wouldn't imagine there would be huge changes in the overall voters per seat just getting slightly better or worse for Labour or the Tories depending who is gaining and who is losing.

Rather than point scoring it is a genuine question could you see any of those matching May's total? they could of course still win and even improve on that current seat total. I was thinking more of the overall ability to attract votes, how they spread is the more important part of course, as Mrs Clinton knows.

If Labour and the Tories tie on votes the Tories would win more seats on UNS.

I could see Boris getting more votes than May If he had an excellent campaign, he has the charisma she lacks and has better political antennae

TheJezziah · January 2018

That could depend on Scotland as well, couple of Welsh seats can alter quite a bit. Largely though If Labour and Tories tied on votes I wouldn't be surprised if the Tories got more seats. Thanks for the answer.

rcs1000 · January 2018

William_H said:
Can Rudd really win the members vote?

If she's up against Hammond, sure.

AndyJS · January 2018

Richard_Tyndall said:

AndyJS said:
Remember the famous quote about politics being a choice between the unpalatable and the disastrous? I don't think that's ever been as true as it is now with Corbyn and May.
Trouble is I can't tell which one would be which.

I was thinking the same thing.

OldKingCole · January 2018

Boris is the Marmite candidate; loved or hated. I suspect that the more people see of him, the less they like him. He can't be said to have covered himself in glory as Foreign Sec and his faux-Churchill stance is wearing a bit thin. IMHO he was lucky, as mayoral candidate, to be facing Ken Livingstone.
If, and I admit it's quite a big if, the LD's get their act together, perchance as a result of some good local results in May, then I think we could very rapidly get back toards three or even four party politics.

CarlottaVance · January 2018

The nation trusts and respects her more than many at the centre.
I think this dignified, awkward woman could yet emerge from these angry times as the leader this country needed.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5320749/Why-Theresa-remembered-capable-leader.html#ixzz55S4loqhN

CarlottaVance · January 2018

OldKingCole said:
Boris is the Marmite candidate; loved or hated. I suspect that the more people see of him, the less they like him. He can't be said to have covered himself in glory as Foreign Sec and his faux-Churchill stance is wearing a bit thin. IMHO he was lucky, as mayoral candidate, to be facing Ken Livingstone.
If, and I admit it's quite a big if, the LD's get their act together, perchance as a result of some good local results in May, then I think we could very rapidly get back toards three or even four party politics.

Sir Alan Duncan, when asked of his opinion of the PM explained at length her strengths and weaknesses. When asked what he thought about Johnson he said simply “c**t”

Recidivist · January 2018

hunchman said:
Anyone who knows anything about Amber Rudd and her past business career knows she shouldn't be an MP let alone home secretary touting for the top job.

I don't know what you mean but I did used to Iive in Hastings, and spent a couple of days there on business last week. I think she may find it hard work to stay as an MP.

CarlottaVance · January 2018

Boris as Churchill - Randolph that is, not Winston

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5320719/Calm-Boris-youre-no-Winston-Churchill-Tory-MP-says.html

IanB2 · January 2018

OldKingCole said:
Boris is the Marmite candidate; loved or hated. I suspect that the more people see of him, the less they like him. He can't be said to have covered himself in glory as Foreign Sec and his faux-Churchill stance is wearing a bit thin. IMHO he was lucky, as mayoral candidate, to be facing Ken Livingstone.
If, and I admit it's quite a big if, the LD's get their act together, perchance as a result of some good local results in May, then I think we could very rapidly get back toards three or even four party politics.

Sooner or later it will come. And the party that loses the next GE is the one that loses a slice of support to the centre. Which should be food for thought for both of them.

Sandpit · January 2018

Recidivist said:

hunchman said:
Anyone who knows anything about Amber Rudd and her past business career knows she shouldn't be an MP let alone home secretary touting for the top job.
I don't know what you mean but I did used to Iive in Hastings, and spent a couple of days there on business last week. I think she may find it hard work to stay as an MP.

Anyone watching her performance as Home Secretary with crime figures up, police failures in rape cases and letters incorrectly telling people they’re going to be deported still going out, would conclude that she’s out of her depth already.

But she’s a Remainer, and will have the support of the Evening Standard.

Sandpit · January 2018

FPT, the Dan Hannan article on the positive post-Brexit future for the UK that the Eurocrats are having nightmares about. We need to see many more positive articles like this in among all the doom and gloom.
https://reaction.life/britain-looks-like-brexit/

Scott_P · January 2018

dixiedean said:
Second. What is a Buccaneering Brexit when it's at home?

One that leaves Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson as PM

Dura_Ace · January 2018

Sandpit said:
FPT, the Dan Hannan article on the positive post-Brexit future for the UK that the Eurocrats are having nightmares about. We need to see many more positive articles like this in among all the doom and gloom.
https://reaction.life/britain-looks-like-brexit/

Netherlands, RoI and Denmark all the quit the EU? This is the worst science fiction since Ancillary Justice.

Recidivist · January 2018

Sandpit said:
FPT, the Dan Hannan article on the positive post-Brexit future for the UK that the Eurocrats are having nightmares about. We need to see many more positive articles like this in among all the doom and gloom.
https://reaction.life/britain-looks-like-brexit/

The trouble is it is pretty much fantasy.

Where he talks about stuff I know about he is easy out. The EU clinical trials directive hasn't had any effect on the volume of medical research in the UK that I have noticed. REACH is a bit of mess but is hardly a drag on business. I don't imagine I'm the only one who has noticed that REACH gives a great framework for protectionism if the EU choose to use it that way. They haven't done so far. Let's hope that they don't start while we are outside.

I like Dan Hannan. He's upbeat and positive. But he's not really got a great analysis. When that article came out it was tweeted around by the philes as evidence of how deluded the phobes are.

OldKingCole · January 2018

CarlottaVance said:
Boris as Churchill - Randolph that is, not Winston

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5320719/Calm-Boris-youre-no-Winston-Churchill-Tory-MP-says.html

To be fair to Boris, I don't think he drinks enough for Randolph, does he? Randolphs misfortune was to persaude himself to try to follow the same profession as his father. He might have been quite good at something else.

Scott_P · January 2018

They are not yet under starter’s orders but the would-be runners in a Conservative leadership contest have left the paddock and are warming up. The contest looks imminent because, in the words of one habitual loyalist, “we can see she simply can’t do it”. This month Theresa May topped the disappointments of 2017 with a botched cabinet reshuffle, a humiliatingly insignificant appearance at Davos and by falling out with both her chancellor and her foreign secretary, the standard-bearers at either ends of Brexit.

When Boris Johnson makes the headlines, it is bad news for the prime minister. If he finds the courage to resign from the cabinet on the right issue, or if May sacks him, the resulting turmoil would almost certainly take her down with him. Which is not to say that Johnson will necessarily replace her.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/boris-rides-high-but-gove-is-this-races-dark-horse-66r9x9glg

Sandpit · January 2018

Recidivist said:

Sandpit said:
FPT, the Dan Hannan article on the positive post-Brexit future for the UK that the Eurocrats are having nightmares about. We need to see many more positive articles like this in among all the doom and gloom.
https://reaction.life/britain-looks-like-brexit/
The trouble is it is pretty much fantasy.

Where he talks about stuff I know about he is easy out. The EU clinical trials directive hasn't had any effect on the volume of medical research in the UK that I have noticed. REACH is a bit of mess but is hardly a drag on business. I don't imagine I'm the only one who has noticed that REACH gives a great framework for protectionism if the EU choose to use it that way. They haven't done so far. Let's hope that they don't start while we are outside.

I like Dan Hannan. He's upbeat and positive. But he's not really got a great analysis. When that article came out it was tweeted around by the philes as evidence of how deluded the phobes are.

Yes I'm sure there's an amount of poetic licence there, after all none of us can predict what the future holds (and lots of money has been won and lost trying to predict events in the last couple of years!)

What annoys me as a Brexit supporter is that Hannan is literally the only person making a positive case for the future outside the EU shackles. He is right that the EU is generally protectionist and inward-looking, and is at best ambivalent about things that the UK does well such as financial services. As a great example the Canada deal took eight years to negotiate and is 1600 pages long but contains very little on services, and the EU single market on services still isn't complete after decades of discussions. I am also pretty sure that the federalists in the Commission are happy for us to leave as it removes one objector to the Project.

OldKingCole · January 2018

Recidivist said:

Sandpit said:
FPT, the Dan Hannan article on the positive post-Brexit future for the UK that the Eurocrats are having nightmares about. We need to see many more positive articles like this in among all the doom and gloom.
https://reaction.life/britain-looks-like-brexit/
The trouble is it is pretty much fantasy.

Where he talks about stuff I know about he is easy out. The EU clinical trials directive hasn't had any effect on the volume of medical research in the UK that I have noticed. REACH is a bit of mess but is hardly a drag on business. I don't imagine I'm the only one who has noticed that REACH gives a great framework for protectionism if the EU choose to use it that way. They haven't done so far. Let's hope that they don't start while we are outside.

I like Dan Hannan. He's upbeat and positive. But he's not really got a great analysis. When that article came out it was tweeted around by the philes as evidence of how deluded the phobes are.

AIUI the Clinical Trials Directive had a very significant British input. Losing the Medicines Agency is more likely to have a negative effect on British research.

Recidivist · January 2018

Sandpit said:

Recidivist said:

Sandpit said:
FPT, the Dan Hannan article on the positive post-Brexit future for the UK that the Eurocrats are having nightmares about. We need to see many more positive articles like this in among all the doom and gloom.
https://reaction.life/britain-looks-like-brexit/
The trouble is it is pretty much fantasy.

Where he talks about stuff I know about he is easy out. The EU clinical trials directive hasn't had any effect on the volume of medical research in the UK that I have noticed. REACH is a bit of mess but is hardly a drag on business. I don't imagine I'm the only one who has noticed that REACH gives a great framework for protectionism if the EU choose to use it that way. They haven't done so far. Let's hope that they don't start while we are outside.

I like Dan Hannan. He's upbeat and positive. But he's not really got a great analysis. When that article came out it was tweeted around by the philes as evidence of how deluded the phobes are.
Yes I'm sure there's an amount of poetic licence there, after all none of us can predict what the future holds (and lots of money has been won and lost trying to predict events in the last couple of years!)

What annoys me as a Brexit supporter is that Hannan is literally the only person making a positive case for the future outside the EU shackles. He is right that the EU is generally protectionist and inward-looking, and is at best ambivalent about things that the UK does well such as financial services. As a great example the Canada deal took eight years to negotiate and is 1600 pages long but contains very little on services, and the EU single market on services still isn't complete after decades of discussions. I am also pretty sure that the federalists in the Commission are happy for us to leave as it removes one objector to the Project.

I'd rather the debate was between two camps putting forward the positives about their projects. For example what Gove is talking about with agriculture is an interesting challenge to the way the EU has been doing things. Boris' bridge was sort of the same, though it did have a bit of a greatest hits album because of lack of new material feeling to it. One bridge proposal is good. Two smacks of lack of imagination.

If there had been a lot more of this kind of thing and more ideas for how we are going to replace things like the EMA it would have been much easier for remainers to get on board. As it is it feels like we are being invited to join the local gang spray painting the bus shelter to show how hard we are. No thanks.

Recidivist · January 2018

OldKingCole said:

Recidivist said:

Sandpit said:
FPT, the Dan Hannan article on the positive post-Brexit future for the UK that the Eurocrats are having nightmares about. We need to see many more positive articles like this in among all the doom and gloom.
https://reaction.life/britain-looks-like-brexit/
The trouble is it is pretty much fantasy.

Where he talks about stuff I know about he is easy out. The EU clinical trials directive hasn't had any effect on the volume of medical research in the UK that I have noticed. REACH is a bit of mess but is hardly a drag on business. I don't imagine I'm the only one who has noticed that REACH gives a great framework for protectionism if the EU choose to use it that way. They haven't done so far. Let's hope that they don't start while we are outside.

I like Dan Hannan. He's upbeat and positive. But he's not really got a great analysis. When that article came out it was tweeted around by the philes as evidence of how deluded the phobes are.
AIUI the Clinical Trials Directive had a very significant British input. Losing the Medicines Agency is more likely to have a negative effect on British research.

Absolutely. Quite apart from losing the advantage of having the regulations drafted in London it is currently a big hub for networking. A lot of deals get done that benefit the UK. You can't get statistics because it is just personal contacts that aren't documented. But it will be significant.

IanB2 · January 2018

Recidivist said:

Sandpit said:

Recidivist said:

Sandpit said:
FPT, the Dan Hannan article on the positive post-Brexit future for the UK that the Eurocrats are having nightmares about. We need to see many more positive articles like this in among all the doom and gloom.
https://reaction.life/britain-looks-like-brexit/
The trouble is it is pretty much fantasy.

Where he talks about stuff I know about he is easy out. The EU clinical trials directive hasn't had any effect on the volume of medical research in the UK that I have noticed. REACH is a bit of mess but is hardly a drag on business. I don't imagine I'm the only one who has noticed that REACH gives a great framework for protectionism if the EU choose to use it that way. They haven't done so far. Let's hope that they don't start while we are outside.

I like Dan Hannan. He's upbeat and positive. But he's not really got a great analysis. When that article came out it was tweeted around by the philes as evidence of how deluded the phobes are.
Yes I'm sure there's an amount of poetic licence there, after all none of us can predict what the future holds (and lots of money has been won and lost trying to predict events in the last couple of years!)

What annoys me as a Brexit supporter is that Hannan is literally the only person making a positive case for the future outside the EU shackles. He is right that the EU is generally protectionist and inward-looking, and is at best ambivalent about things that the UK does well such as financial services. As a great example the Canada deal took eight years to negotiate and is 1600 pages long but contains very little on services, and the EU single market on services still isn't complete after decades of discussions. I am also pretty sure that the federalists in the Commission are happy for us to leave as it removes one objector to the Project.
I'd rather the debate was between two camps putting forward the positives about their projects. For example what Gove is talking about with agriculture is an interesting challenge to the way the EU has been doing things. Boris' bridge was sort of the same, though it did have a bit of a greatest hits album because of lack of new material feeling to it. One bridge proposal is good. Two smacks of lack of imagination.

If there had been a lot more of this kind of thing and more ideas for how we are going to replace things like the EMA it would have been much easier for remainers to get on board. As it is it feels like we are being invited to join the local gang spray painting the bus shelter to show how hard we are. No thanks.

Lol. Gove's proposals have already, twice, been kicked several years off into the long grass due to Tory vested interest, and the pressure to abandon or water them down still further continues.

IanB2 · January 2018

Scott_P said:
They are not yet under starter’s orders but the would-be runners in a Conservative leadership contest have left the paddock and are warming up. The contest looks imminent because, in the words of one habitual loyalist, “we can see she simply can’t do it”. This month Theresa May topped the disappointments of 2017 with a botched cabinet reshuffle, a humiliatingly insignificant appearance at Davos and by falling out with both her chancellor and her foreign secretary, the standard-bearers at either ends of Brexit.

When Boris Johnson makes the headlines, it is bad news for the prime minister. If he finds the courage to resign from the cabinet on the right issue, or if May sacks him, the resulting turmoil would almost certainly take her down with him. Which is not to say that Johnson will necessarily replace her.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/boris-rides-high-but-gove-is-this-races-dark-horse-66r9x9glg

Hopefully Boris will fulfil Heseltine's role. It must be the hair.

Sandpit · January 2018

Good news for everyone with a car, and everyone who thought the government were doing nothing except Brexit. Govt to support private members’ bill setting up tougher rules for private parking companies.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5320843/Dodgy-parking-firms-face-Government-crackdown-amid-new-code-practice.html

Yorkcity · January 2018

Sandpit said:
Good news for everyone with a car, and everyone who thought the government were doing nothing except Brexit. Govt to support private members’ bill setting up tougher rules for private parking companies.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5320843/Dodgy-parking-firms-face-Government-crackdown-amid-new-code-practice.html

Hard to believe anyone thought such a thing .Most people I know could mention easily what they are doing.

Alistair · January 2018

FTPT

rcs1000 said:

Mortimer said:

Jonathan said:
Boris is a dangerous idiot.
Don't hold back, tell us what you really think.

But seriously, he is an intellectual collosus compared to Corbz
The risk to Brexit, on reflection, is that it causes a civil war inside the Conservative Party, which leads to Corbyn, which leads to economic disaster.

Which will be blamed on Brexit.

Amazing, who'd have thought caving to the Brexit nutters and focusing national policy around internal party disagreements in a totally misguided attempt to retain party unity would turn out to be bad for the country.

Nobody could have seen this coming. No one.

FF43 · January 2018

Recidivist said:

Sandpit said:
FPT, the Dan Hannan article on the positive post-Brexit future for the UK that the Eurocrats are having nightmares about. We need to see many more positive articles like this in among all the doom and gloom.
https://reaction.life/britain-looks-like-brexit/
The trouble is it is pretty much fantasy.

Where he talks about stuff I know about he is easy out. The EU clinical trials directive hasn't had any effect on the volume of medical research in the UK that I have noticed. REACH is a bit of mess but is hardly a drag on business. I don't imagine I'm the only one who has noticed that REACH gives a great framework for protectionism if the EU choose to use it that way. They haven't done so far. Let's hope that they don't start while we are outside.

I like Dan Hannan. He's upbeat and positive. But he's not really got a great analysis. When that article came out it was tweeted around by the philes as evidence of how deluded the phobes are.

I dislike Daniel Hannan because he is knowledgeable and clever and knows what he says is bunkum. Everything is subsumed to his ideology. He is disingenuous. I prefer the uninformed who are sincere in their misunderstandings or true believers who accept their belief comes from the heart and not facts.

Charles · January 2018

Recidivist said:

Sandpit said:
FPT, the Dan Hannan article on the positive post-Brexit future for the UK that the Eurocrats are having nightmares about. We need to see many more positive articles like this in among all the doom and gloom.
https://reaction.life/britain-looks-like-brexit/
The trouble is it is pretty much fantasy.

Where he talks about stuff I know about he is easy out. The EU clinical trials directive hasn't had any effect on the volume of medical research in the UK that I have noticed. REACH is a bit of mess but is hardly a drag on business. I don't imagine I'm the only one who has noticed that REACH gives a great framework for protectionism if the EU choose to use it that way. They haven't done so far. Let's hope that they don't start while we are outside.

I like Dan Hannan. He's upbeat and positive. But he's not really got a great analysis. When that article came out it was tweeted around by the philes as evidence of how deluded the phobes are.

The Americans regularly claim that REACH is abused (for instance on whatever that red food dye was).

The EU is over enthusiastic with respect to the precautionary principle but I’d be surprised if the UK and the EU were to diverge much on their views (possibly, over time, on whether gene editing = GMO or not). But now that Bayer is buying Monsanto I suspect the EU will become much more comfortable with GMO

In any event there are clear WTO relies on using safety as a trade barrier

Morris_Dancer · January 2018

Good morning, everyone.

An advantage to axing May earlier than intended would be to end rather than prolong the ambitious jockeying for position instead of doing their jobs.

JosiasJessop · January 2018

Morris_Dancer said:
Good morning, everyone.

An advantage to axing May earlier than intended would be to end rather than prolong the ambitious jockeying for position instead of doing their jobs.

Or alternatively, in Boris's case, his prolonged ambitious jockeying is stopping him from dong damage whilst doing his job, and therefore he should be encouraged.

Morris_Dancer · January 2018

Mr. Jessop, Boris Johnson would do a better job as trebuchet ammunition than Foreign Secretary.

DavidL · January 2018

Can't believe I have woken up and England have again not come close to using all their overs. They have to bowl Aus out and that is not really their strength.

ydoethur · January 2018

Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. Jessop, Boris Johnson would do a better job as trebuchet ammunition than Foreign Secretary.

Could be worse.

Could be Alun Davies, the most loathsome scumbag to hold political office.

JonnyJimmy · January 2018

JosiasJessop said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Good morning, everyone.

An advantage to axing May earlier than intended would be to end rather than prolong the ambitious jockeying for position instead of doing their jobs.
Or alternatively, in Boris's case, his prolonged ambitious jockeying is stopping him from dong damage whilst doing his job, and therefore he should be encouraged.

Typo?

Sandpit · January 2018

DavidL said:
Can't believe I have woken up and England have again not come close to using all their overs. They have to bowl Aus out and that is not really their strength.

I know the series has gone our way already, but to fail at the first rule of limited overs cricket two games in a row doesn’t bode well.

DavidL · January 2018

Sandpit said:

DavidL said:
Can't believe I have woken up and England have again not come close to using all their overs. They have to bowl Aus out and that is not really their strength.
I know the series has gone our way already, but to fail at the first rule of limited overs cricket two games in a row doesn’t bode well.

Seem to have had a really good start this time too. From what I have seen so far of the Australian innings this is going to be a walk in the park for them. Looks an excellent wicket and England were 50 runs short of a competitive total. Disappointing.

JonathanD · January 2018

JosiasJessop said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Good morning, everyone.

An advantage to axing May earlier than intended would be to end rather than prolong the ambitious jockeying for position instead of doing their jobs.
Or alternatively, in Boris's case, his prolonged ambitious jockeying is stopping him from dong damage whilst doing his job, and therefore he should be encouraged.

Id be fascinated to know how Boris thinks he could turn things round if he became leader. 25% of his party hate him, he'd have no majority in parliament and no prospect of getting one.

I'm tempted to think that he should be allowed to become PM just so he and Hannan can ride their fantasy project down in flames.

SquareRoot · January 2018

This Tory Govt is beginning to resemble John Major's 92-97. Just how many "bastards" are there?

Sandpit · January 2018

DavidL said:

Sandpit said:

DavidL said:
Can't believe I have woken up and England have again not come close to using all their overs. They have to bowl Aus out and that is not really their strength.
I know the series has gone our way already, but to fail at the first rule of limited overs cricket two games in a row doesn’t bode well.
Seem to have had a really good start this time too. From what I have seen so far of the Australian innings this is going to be a walk in the park for them. Looks an excellent wicket and England were 50 runs short of a competitive total. Disappointing.

Indeed. We were 151/3 after 26 overs before the collapse came, so should really have been looking closer to 350 than 300. 260 is an easy target, they’ll probably knock the runs off with eight or nine overs remaining.

DavidL · January 2018

On topic the idea that the Moggster is still the favourite to succeed in the betting is truly bizarre. Gavin Williamson is doing absolutely nothing to impress. The key to successful leadership is teams. Where is the team that is going to lead this government back to sanity and a sense of purpose? I'm guessing it is unlikely to be Boris and Gove. We need to see some of the also rans falling in behind someone else. Until they do May will totter on.

Jonathan · January 2018

SquareRoot said:
This Tory Govt is beginning to resemble John Major's 92-97. Just how many "bastards" are there?

Really unfair to Major. This is.in another league

MikeSmithson · January 2018

IanB2 said:

Scott_P said:
They are not yet under starter’s orders but the would-be runners in a Conservative leadership contest have left the paddock and are warming up. The contest looks imminent because, in the words of one habitual loyalist, “we can see she simply can’t do it”. This month Theresa May topped the disappointments of 2017 with a botched cabinet reshuffle, a humiliatingly insignificant appearance at Davos and by falling out with both her chancellor and her foreign secretary, the standard-bearers at either ends of Brexit.

When Boris Johnson makes the headlines, it is bad news for the prime minister. If he finds the courage to resign from the cabinet on the right issue, or if May sacks him, the resulting turmoil would almost certainly take her down with him. Which is not to say that Johnson will necessarily replace her.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/boris-rides-high-but-gove-is-this-races-dark-horse-66r9x9glg
Hopefully Boris will fulfil Heseltine's role. It must be the hair.

Boris is nearly as bald as I am. It is just a cover up.

edb · January 2018

Sad to see the WACA replaced. This one is better but no soul.

Morris_Dancer · January 2018

Mr. Doethur, worse than Flavius Phocas?

DavidL · January 2018

edb said:
Sad to see the WACA replaced. This one is better but no soul.

Its a stunning stadium. So many of our cricket grounds are lovely but tiny. These stadiums are so impressive.

edb · January 2018

I'm also incredulous about some of the names on this list. Gove seems to be one of those politicians who only gets terrible press. He must be good at something or he wouldn't keep getting picked for things, but leader and PM? He really would have been better as the brains behind someone a bit less slappable, like BoJo.

Recidivist · January 2018

Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. Doethur, worse than Flavius Phocas?

Weirdly I picked up Gibbon's Decline and Fall yesterday and opened it at random on the bit where he came to power.

LordWakefield · January 2018

SquareRoot said:
This Tory Govt is beginning to resemble John Major's 92-97. Just how many "bastards" are there?

Fortunately the opposition has nothing like the appeal of Tony Blair's new Labour of the mid 90s.

Gardenwalker · January 2018

Buried in the S Times report is this claim that Olly Robbins has told the EU that May would stay in the customs union beyond transition.

What the hell is that about?

The ONLY half decent reason to Brexit is to leave the customs union and attempt FTAs with other nations.

I presume this is an attempt to extend transition beyond transition...I doubt it would satisfy the Rees-Moggs.

Sandpit · January 2018

DavidL said:

edb said:
Sad to see the WACA replaced. This one is better but no soul.
Its a stunning stadium. So many of our cricket grounds are lovely but tiny. These stadiums are so impressive.

It would be good to see some of the 20/20 money go into improving the grandstands and facilities in England, with the exception of the Oval they’re well behind what we see anywhere in Australia.

This is my local cricket pitch, a smaller (25,000) version of the new stadium in Perth.
https://images.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https://tse1.mm.bing.net/th?id=OIP.X3mfTh5HOttORbsWHJm7PQHaE6&pid=15.1&f=1

Sandpit · January 2018

SquareRoot said:
This Tory Govt is beginning to resemble John Major's 92-97. Just how many "bastards" are there?

Ken Clarke, Anna Soubry, Heidi Allan, Dominic Grieve...

Morris_Dancer · January 2018

Mr. L, stadia*.

Mr. Recidivist, hope you enjoy it. That little section (and the immediately preceding part with Maurice and Chosroes getting along) is very interesting.

Mr. Walker, indeed, leaving the EU and staying in the customs union would be demented, and indefensible. It would also deepen and worsen the already polarised political situation.

Morris_Dancer · January 2018

Five Star down to 1.33 for most seats. If I'd put more on I'd be tempted to hedge with the second-placed party, now 3.25, but with only a smidgen riding on it I think I'll just leave it (backed Five Star at evens). Election day for Italy is the 4th of March.

Dura_Ace · January 2018

Results of the impromptu middle class focus group I held at dinner last night. Attendees: Semi-retired scofflaw (that's me), dentist (Mrs DA), BA B744 Captain, solicitor, 2 x academics.

May: surprising well disposed toward her. This genuinely shocked me as I just assumed everyone in the country detested her. Her awkwardness was noted. Like one of those WI lesbians who go on walking holidays to Iceland.

Corbyn: generally thought to be one of us (at least you can be sure he doesn't watch ITV) but held to be so intellectually impoverished or suffering such from a degree of genuine mental impairment as to prevent his passage to No. 10.

Lib Dems: Nobody knew who their leader was.

UKIP: HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Conclusion: the centre is there for the taking under a different Labour leader and, amazingly, it could be even possible for May to turn around the current shit show.

rottenborough · January 2018

Sandpit said:

SquareRoot said:
This Tory Govt is beginning to resemble John Major's 92-97. Just how many "bastards" are there?
Ken Clarke, Anna Soubry, Heidi Allan, Dominic Grieve...

May has probably started creating her own bastards e.g Greening. Even Major didn't actually wilfully create his own iirc.

Big_G_NorthWales · January 2018

Dura_Ace said:
Results of the impromptu middle class focus group I held at dinner last night. Attendees: Semi-retired scofflaw (that's me), dentist (Mrs DA), BA B744 Captain, solicitor, 2 x academics.

May: surprising well disposed toward her. This genuinely shocked me as I just assumed everyone in the country detested her. Her awkwardness was noted. Like one of those WI lesbians who go on walking holidays to Iceland.

Corbyn: generally thought to be one of us (at least you can be sure he doesn't watch ITV) but held to be so intellectually impoverished or suffering such from a degree of genuine mental impairment as to prevent his passage to No. 10.

Lib Dems: Nobody knew who their leader was.

UKIP: HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Conclusion: the centre is there for the taking under a different Labour leader and, amazingly, it could be even possible for May to turn around the current shit show.

Very interesting and probably true of the Country.

Big_G_NorthWales · January 2018

rottenborough said:

Sandpit said:

SquareRoot said:
This Tory Govt is beginning to resemble John Major's 92-97. Just how many "bastards" are there?
Ken Clarke, Anna Soubry, Heidi Allan, Dominic Grieve...
May has probably started creating her own bastards e.g Greening. Even Major didn't actually wilfully create his own iirc.

That is true of all PM's as they sack ministers

Morris_Dancer · January 2018

Mr. Ace, spoke, briefly, to my mother about whether Corbyn might win the next election. She thought it less likely than the polls indicated, which tallies with your own anecdote.

HYUFD · January 2018

Gardenwalker said:
Buried in the S Times report is this claim that Olly Robbins has told the EU that May would stay in the customs union beyond transition.

What the hell is that about?

The ONLY half decent reason to Brexit is to leave the customs union and attempt FTAs with other nations.

I presume this is an attempt to extend transition beyond transition...I doubt it would satisfy the Rees-Moggs.

Actually ending free movement is more important to most Leave voters, many Tory Brexiteers would hate it but staying in the customs union is not something that would concern Leave voters as much as staying in the single market and leaving free movement in place

NickPalmer · January 2018

IanB2 said:

Lol. Gove's proposals have already, twice, been kicked several years off into the long grass due to Tory vested interest, and the pressure to abandon or water them down still further continues.

I don't think that's entirely fair, in the same way that crticising people asking for a longish Brexit transition is unfair. My day job is partly to respond to what Gove is doing - I spend hours every day discussing it, writing about it and organiing campigns on it and trying to get it improved. I'd be very pleased if he could implement it all tomorrow. But it's not reasonble to expect big farms to lose their subsidies overnight, and if the end result is much more humane and environmentally-friendly farming, I'm willing to accept a few years to do it.

The risk, as you imply, is that the substance gets watered down under pressure or by a future SofS. But for now I think he's doing a good job.

kle4 · January 2018

Dura_Ace said:
Results of the impromptu middle class focus group I held at dinner last night. Attendees: Semi-retired scofflaw (that's me), dentist (Mrs DA), BA B744 Captain, solicitor, 2 x academics.

May: surprising well disposed toward her. This genuinely shocked me as I just assumed everyone in the country detested her. Her awkwardness was noted. Like one of those WI lesbians who go on walking holidays to Iceland.

Corbyn: generally thought to be one of us (at least you can be sure he doesn't watch ITV) but held to be so intellectually impoverished or suffering such from a degree of genuine mental impairment as to prevent his passage to No. 10.

Lib Dems: Nobody knew who their leader was.

UKIP: HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Conclusion: the centre is there for the taking under a different Labour leader and, amazingly, it could be even possible for May to turn around the current shit show.

I think it's a possibility, but a slight one. Quite apart from her lacking the skills required, her fractious party, trying to wrestle with the contradictory demands of Brexit, wil prevent things turning around.

edb · January 2018

Sandpit said:

It would be good to see some of the 20/20 money go into improving the grandstands and facilities in England, with the exception of the Oval they’re well behind what we see anywhere in Australia.

Some of it already has, and it's been a disaster (eg Durham ccc going bust). 90% of English pro cricket is played in front of hundreds (rather than thousands) of fans. With no terrestrial TV exposure the fan base is probably in long term decline absent innovations like T20.

FF43 · January 2018

Gardenwalker said:
Buried in the S Times report is this claim that Olly Robbins has told the EU that May would stay in the customs union beyond transition.

What the hell is that about?

The ONLY half decent reason to Brexit is to leave the customs union and attempt FTAs with other nations.

I presume this is an attempt to extend transition beyond transition...I doubt it would satisfy the Rees-Moggs.

The Customs Union is misunderstood. It is purely about whether to agree a common set of tariffs. Product regulation is strictly speaking a different issue. The question is whether we would actually diverge from the EU on our tariff schedule. We want to protect our farmers apparently and we also want to replicate existing EU third party agreements, so not really. Maybe lower tariffs on oranges as we don't have a citrus industry to protect. Frankly apart from possibly the US, the competitors to Spanish oranges aren't important trading countries to us, although some are quite poor. Against that, being in a customs union helps with those pesky rules of origin and is one requirement for a barrier free border in Ireland and elsewhere.

The customs union should be a slam dunk.

MaxPB · January 2018

HYUFD said:

Gardenwalker said:
Buried in the S Times report is this claim that Olly Robbins has told the EU that May would stay in the customs union beyond transition.

What the hell is that about?

The ONLY half decent reason to Brexit is to leave the customs union and attempt FTAs with other nations.

I presume this is an attempt to extend transition beyond transition...I doubt it would satisfy the Rees-Moggs.
Actually ending free movement is more important to most Leave voters, many Tory Brexiteers would hate it but staying in the customs union is not something that would concern Leave voters as much as staying in the single market and leaving free movement in place

Theresa is answerable to the Tory party first and foremost. It seems as though someone who disagrees with the idea has leaked it to The Sunday Times to help try and get her out.

Charles · January 2018

HYUFD said:

Gardenwalker said:
Buried in the S Times report is this claim that Olly Robbins has told the EU that May would stay in the customs union beyond transition.

What the hell is that about?

The ONLY half decent reason to Brexit is to leave the customs union and attempt FTAs with other nations.

I presume this is an attempt to extend transition beyond transition...I doubt it would satisfy the Rees-Moggs.
Actually ending free movement is more important to most Leave voters, many Tory Brexiteers would hate it but staying in the customs union is not something that would concern Leave voters as much as staying in the single market and leaving free movement in place

Custom Unions are immoral from philosophical perspective. They are an attempt to divert wealth, not maximise it. It’s just mercantilism on a continent wide basis.

HYUFD · January 2018

Alistair said:
FTPT

rcs1000 said:

Mortimer said:

Jonathan said:
Boris is a dangerous idiot.
Don't hold back, tell us what you really think.

But seriously, he is an intellectual collosus compared to Corbz
The risk to Brexit, on reflection, is that it causes a civil war inside the Conservative Party, which leads to Corbyn, which leads to economic disaster.

Which will be blamed on Brexit.
Amazing, who'd have thought caving to the Brexit nutters and focusing national policy around internal party disagreements in a totally misguided attempt to retain party unity would turn out to be bad for the country.

Nobody could have seen this coming. No one.

Given 52% of the electorate voted for Brexit and only around 45% maximum would vote for Corbyn, I would not be so certain of that

Sandpit · January 2018

FF43 said:

Gardenwalker said:
Buried in the S Times report is this claim that Olly Robbins has told the EU that May would stay in the customs union beyond transition.

What the hell is that about?

The ONLY half decent reason to Brexit is to leave the customs union and attempt FTAs with other nations.

I presume this is an attempt to extend transition beyond transition...I doubt it would satisfy the Rees-Moggs.
The Customs Union is misunderstood. It is purely about whether to agree a common set of tariffs. Product regulation is strictly speaking a different issue. The question is whether we would actually diverge from the EU on our tariff schedule. We want to protect our farmers apparently and we also want to replicate existing EU third party agreements, so not really. Maybe lower tariffs on oranges as we don't have a citrus industry to protect. Frankly apart from possibly the US, the competitors to Spanish oranges aren't important trading countries to us, although some are quite poor. Against that, being in a customs union helps with those pesky rules of origin and is one requirement for a barrier free border in Ireland and elsewhere.

The customs union should be a slam dunk.

No, being in *the* CU is about our inability to negotiate trade with other countries on our own terms. For example the Canada deal with the EU that took years but contains only minimal concessions on financial services.

HYUFD · January 2018

MaxPB said:

HYUFD said:

Gardenwalker said:
Buried in the S Times report is this claim that Olly Robbins has told the EU that May would stay in the customs union beyond transition.

What the hell is that about?

The ONLY half decent reason to Brexit is to leave the customs union and attempt FTAs with other nations.

I presume this is an attempt to extend transition beyond transition...I doubt it would satisfy the Rees-Moggs.
Actually ending free movement is more important to most Leave voters, many Tory Brexiteers would hate it but staying in the customs union is not something that would concern Leave voters as much as staying in the single market and leaving free movement in place
Theresa is answerable to the Tory party first and foremost. It seems as though someone who disagrees with the idea has leaked it to The Sunday Times to help try and get her out.

The anti EU right would certainly disagree with it

Sandpit · January 2018

NickPalmer said:

IanB2 said:

Lol. Gove's proposals have already, twice, been kicked several years off into the long grass due to Tory vested interest, and the pressure to abandon or water them down still further continues.
I don't think that's entirely fair, in the same way that crticising people asking for a longish Brexit transition is unfair. My day job is partly to respond to what Gove is doing - I spend hours every day discussing it, writing about it and organiing campigns on it and trying to get it improved. I'd be very pleased if he could implement it all tomorrow. But it's not reasonble to expect big farms to lose their subsidies overnight, and if the end result is much more humane and environmentally-friendly farming, I'm willing to accept a few years to do it.

The risk, as you imply, is that the substance gets watered down under pressure or by a future SofS. But for now I think he's doing a good job.

Fair play Nick for supporting Gove at DEFRA, when it would be easier to take the partisan line of hating him and all his evil works.

HYUFD · January 2018

Charles said:

HYUFD said:

Gardenwalker said:
Buried in the S Times report is this claim that Olly Robbins has told the EU that May would stay in the customs union beyond transition.

What the hell is that about?

The ONLY half decent reason to Brexit is to leave the customs union and attempt FTAs with other nations.

I presume this is an attempt to extend transition beyond transition...I doubt it would satisfy the Rees-Moggs.
Actually ending free movement is more important to most Leave voters, many Tory Brexiteers would hate it but staying in the customs union is not something that would concern Leave voters as much as staying in the single market and leaving free movement in place
Custom Unions are immoral from philosophical perspective. They are an attempt to divert wealth, not maximise it. It’s just mercantilism on a continent wide basis.

It is more the negotiation of FTAs outside the EU that is the challenge for the UK of leaving the Customs Union I think

HYUFD · January 2018

Corbyn expressing his support for Oxfam's recent report on the super rich taking too much of the wealth and the free market economy is not working and key to invest in health, housing and education, says China still very state organised despite human rights and environmental concerns.

Foxy · January 2018

DavidL said:
The key to successful leadership is teams. Where is the team that is going to lead this government back to sanity and a sense of purpose? I'm guessing it is unlikely to be Boris and Gove. We need to see some of the also rans falling in behind someone else. Until they do May will totter on.

I agree. The art of leadership is to inspire confidence in those who are to be led that the direction of travel is clear and wise. It requires listening skills and also the emotional intelligence to get the best out of people, and to unite them in that purpose.

None of May, Boris or Gove can do this. Hunt could possibly, and JRM too.

Morris_Dancer · January 2018

Mr. HYUFD, unsurprising given the far left statistical idiocy expressed by Oxfam on the subject. They seem more concerned by inequality than poverty, and relative poverty (a harmful fiction concocted by those with a desire to perpetuate myths and believed by those statistically uninformed) than absolute poverty (ie not having enough money to live on).

FF43 · January 2018

Hunt seems plausible as a compromise candidate, a bit like May for her election. No-one really dislikes him and is seen as a safe pair of hands despite the NHS degrading on his watch. Mrs May was seen as a safe pair of hands too, but let's not mention that.

Big_G_NorthWales · January 2018

HYUFD said:
Corbyn expressing his support for Oxfam's recent report on the super rich taking too much of the wealth and the free market economy is not working and key to invest in health, housing and education, says China still very state organised despite human rights and environmental concerns.

The more I see and hear Corbyn the more I am convinced he will never be PM

Morris_Dancer · January 2018

New thread.

FF43 · January 2018

Dura_Ace said:
Results of the impromptu middle class focus group I held at dinner last night. Attendees: Semi-retired scofflaw (that's me), dentist (Mrs DA), BA B744 Captain, solicitor, 2 x academics.

May: surprising well disposed toward her. This genuinely shocked me as I just assumed everyone in the country detested her. Her awkwardness was noted. Like one of those WI lesbians who go on walking holidays to Iceland.

Corbyn: generally thought to be one of us (at least you can be sure he doesn't watch ITV) but held to be so intellectually impoverished or suffering such from a degree of genuine mental impairment as to prevent his passage to No. 10.

Lib Dems: Nobody knew who their leader was.

UKIP: HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Conclusion: the centre is there for the taking under a different Labour leader and, amazingly, it could be even possible for May to turn around the current shit show.

May is seen as trying her best. People don't think her alternatives are trying THEIR best.

kle4 · January 2018

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:
Corbyn expressing his support for Oxfam's recent report on the super rich taking too much of the wealth and the free market economy is not working and key to invest in health, housing and education, says China still very state organised despite human rights and environmental concerns.
The more I see and hear Corbyn the more I am convinced he will never be PM

Or the more you see him the more you are convinced he shouldn't be PM? No doubt many were convinced several PMs woukd not make it.

Foxy · January 2018

HYUFD said:
Corbyn expressing his support for Oxfam's recent report on the super rich taking too much of the wealth and the free market economy is not working and key to invest in health, housing and education, says China still very state organised despite human rights and environmental concerns.

I suspect that even a fair number of Tory voters would agree with that analysis.

Sandpit · January 2018

HYUFD said:
Corbyn expressing his support for Oxfam's recent report on the super rich taking too much of the wealth and the free market economy is not working and key to invest in health, housing and education, says China still very state organised despite human rights and environmental concerns.

I hope Oxfam are happy with that report - I understand it's costing them a lot of money in cancelled standing orders from those more concerned with actual poverty in Africa and India, rather than 'relative poverty' of those in the UK who can't afford this year's iPhone for their kids.

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