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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Brexit in Name Only – BINO – or the BEANO!
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Brexit in Name Only – BINO – or the BEANO!
Thanks to Nicholas Leonard and Helen Cochrane.
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Compare and contrast May's political need to accomodate the rhetorical needs of the hard Brexiteers with HMGs practical and factual need to process customs transactions outside of a customs union. I know that many politicians made fools of themselves with 'project fear' on one side and "£350m" on the other. But it's not the politicians talking here it's the government service responsible, and they say the rhetoric is impossible in reality.
We're heading for an avoidable economic heart attack. And it will be the end of the Tory Party
1. Delay Brexit until 2023 allowing the UK to be ready for WTO
2. Extend the transition period until 2023 allowing the UK to be ready for WTO
3. Do neither. Then be "surprised" when the system collapses quickly and "astonished" when Kent fills up with Lorries queuing for a broken border crossing and "who could have forecasted it" economic heart attack as cross border trade stops overnight.
All the rhetoric and bullshit and spin doesn't matter in the real and practical world. Yes we know that WTO means we need proper border controls. The people responsible for border controls say it's impossible to be ready on your timescale.
Should we listen to them? Or you? Who is the expert on HMRC resources and preparedness? It's head? Or you daodao?
Much less emotive to say "Dominic Grieve, that well-known
Brexit traitorBINOmial......""When negotiating with Jonny Foreigners, I always find it useful to ignore everything they say"
D Davis, Westminster
I stated how the EU should regard the UK - it needs to inflict severe punishment pour encourager les autres, to ensure that the drive to ever closer union is not derailed - not how HMG should approach the issue. The EU needs to strangle the UK.
" Some Leavers are superficial; some aren't. Superficial Leavers would need to make common cause with pragmatic Remainers because they actually do want it to work. Even so, Brexit will be damaging.
A consensus is possible if only someone would stand up and promote it!
5. Agree a deal that cuts 99% of tariffs like Canada does.
6. Add more capacity to the system with the three year window.
Keep prattling on about impending disaster and impossibility to leave the EU and you highlight the reason leavers want out, strengthening their resolve and belief that the EU is a suffocating blood sucking force for evil.
A positive message (from either side) will win.
BINO is probably the worst result for a peaceful coexistence between the tribes. Many people accept being outvoted; they may not like it, but it happens. But having the piss taken out of them by politicians who consider them stupid isn't a recipe for acceptance.
Remember the expenses scandal. The money involved was negligible compared to the Government's daily spending, but the anger was about politician's thought processes.
As here ... you plebs are stupid, you'll believe any old shit.
Better to be up-front. We gave you a referendum, but we didn't mean it.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/feb/04/brexit-mess-theresa-may-tories
The only way May can get to a sensible outcome, given her lack of authority, is to steer towards a disastrous one and wait for the outcry from business etc. to grow so strong that she is able to change tack at the last minute, once the Tory numbnuts are shown to be speaking for next-to-no-one. That is where we are heading.
I preferred the Dandy as a child (my brother read the Beano). The Downing Street Kids are certainly up to endless mischief.
On female leaders who might be about to leave the stage, the Germans need to decide whether they're having a coalition or elections. And next month we have both the Italian and Russian elections. I, for one, am keen to see what winning percentage Putin achieves.
Top Tips : Remainers , pretend you have won the EU referendum by telling everyone incessantly spurious reasons why we can’t leave.
Noted.
What a pity Labour is being run by a Chuckle Brothers version of Marx and Lenin and the Lib Dems appear to have vanished without trace.
Basically, It's Not Optimal (BINO)
BINO is probably the worst result for a peaceful coexistence between the tribes. Many people accept being outvoted; they may not like it, but it happens. But having the piss taken out of them by politicians who consider them stupid isn't a recipe for acceptance.
Remember the expenses scandal. The money involved was negligible compared to the Government's daily spending, but the anger was about politician's thought processes.
As here ... you plebs are stupid, you'll believe any old shit.
Better to be up-front. We gave you a referendum, but we didn't mean it.
†************
Absolutely agree with this. See also Mr Cameron's "Deal"
Another day of rows over Brexit. I do wonder what the main argument of the day would be if we didn't have this. NHS probably. Hunt is lucky in some respects.
5 isn't achievable in the timescale - our diplomats have been crystal clear about the (lack of) realism from headbangers
6 see point 4
Would love to hear the answer to how we retain the Common Travel Area and leave the Customs Union...
And the realisation that they're so out of step with the British people.
It's no wonder they've been behind the running at almost every stage. And pinning hopes on Hail Mary passes (remember James Chapman?).
The latest wheeze seems to be calling leaving the single market and the Customs union BINO, which is hilaripus, given it was called hard Brexit until recently. If it helps the discombobulated come to terms with it, why should we worry. Rejoice; we're leaving....
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/feb/05/courier-who-was-fined-for-day-off-to-see-doctor-dies-from-diabetes
“DPD uses around 5,000 self-employed couriers. They are under pressure to deliver parcels to restricted time slots, must wear a uniform, hire a DPD liveried van and not work for any other courier company. MPs and unions have argued that these strict conditions mean they are bogusly self-employed and should be treated as employed workers.”
We have got to sort out the gig economy so that it is fair for workers.
Half-in, half-out, with the price of membership but lacking the rights of either membership or independence is a recipe to turn the polarised political situation into trench warfare.
Edited extra bit: Mr. 86, any thoughts on that?
"The party — in fact, the country — has rarely felt so ripe for capture."
https://www.ft.com/content/68f02dfc-099d-11e8-8eb7-42f857ea9f09
Still available at 6 on BF.
I'm still staggered that Remainer MPs don't realise that they have no power to determine the type of Brexit.
As I see it you have to accept European standards for goods sold into Europe (but you’d need to do that anyway), and there is country of origin paperwork. What are the other disadvantages that make it so bad?
Mr. 86, indeed.
How do we reconcile last night’s statement about no customs union and Mrs May saying there’ll be no hard border in Ireland?
If there is no fresh food on the shelves then we are looking at civil unrest.
We've discussed the CU (and membership thereof) here for well over a year.
If they'd hung on, they could have put Valentines cards in the envelopes.
Giving Sir Graham Brady an envelope with messages for Mrs May like
‘Se should get to know the party’
Or
‘Nick Timothy is a twat’
Maybe she will call an early general election to win a majority?
The sensible thing seems to be a staggered transition, with exit of the single market and customs union at different times.
She should drive those God bothering homophobes into the sea.
https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/960428255823228928
If the EU then wants to keep tariffs it's they who will be responsible for the border in Ireland.
Remarkable to see the Leavers on the site making great claims about Remainers having lost the argument, even as the polls show that the public remain completely unconvinced that the decision to leave the EU was the right one. They should stop talking to each other and start listening to the public.
As for new trade deals I am at a loss to think of one my company needs. Our devices are too expensive mostly for India and China and being under USA fda direct control scares me.
But I 'm a bit baffled as to why the DUP oppose a hard border with the South in any case ? Aren't they normally in favour of keeping the South out and as their own constituencies aren't along the border they wouldn't be inconvenienced as much either.
On the customs union, it's the inevitable consequence if we want to strike the most advantageous possible trade deals outside the EU. If we were to remain within the customs union with the EU, wouldn't that by definition affect the terms of any future trade deals we could strike with the likes of the US, China or India ?
Clearly, the May Government believes (or wants to believe) an independent UK fully removed from the EU can seek better trade deals than has so far been achieved as part of the EU.
We'll see.
Meanwhile and on a huge tangent, a classic example of the kind of things you can find in a $10 filing cabinet:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/about/backstory/news-coverage/2018-02-03/the-cabinet-files-and-how-they-were-found/9393008
Interesting to see the Turnbull Government, regrettably in common with many other so-called democratic Governments, seeking to clamp down even further on access to information in the light of WikiLeaks. Whither (or indeed wither) accountability ?
Sturgeon's a bit lucky that people haven't much focussed that in the last two years, the SNP have made net seat losses at Holyrood*, in council seats, and of course at Westminster (although they do have 29 more MPs now than when Nicola Sturgeon became leader)
*Like Theresa May she lost someone else's majority.