Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PaddyPower makes it 3/1 that TMay won’t survive beyond the end

245

Comments

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    edited February 2018
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Maybe we should just invade and conquer Eire. That would solve the EU's apparent difficulties and even with our much diminished forces probably wouldn't take more than a few days.

    Or maybe we can finally agree that trying to resolve the status of the Irish border separately from our relationship with the EU generally is simply nuts and that the EU position is completely barking.
    If we have a FTA with the EU what problem exists on the EIre border that does not exist right now and which both sides are quite happy to ignore? The only thing I can think of is third party imports into Eire or the UK. Surely that is just paperwork? And once again exactly the same issue we need to resolve with the rest of the EU?

    I think past experience is that conquering Ireland is like conquering Afghanistan, more of a long haul than a few days.

    It is quite clear that the governments Brexit strategy (!!) requires a hard border as we will not be in CU or SM. Even an FTA requires a degreedof infrastructure on the border. The DUP just need to suck it up. In addition it probably needs the GFA to go back to the drawing board, Stormont ain't working even apart from Brexit.
    If we have a FTA, which the Irish seem to want too, then all that needs to be regulated is third party imports. Given the practicalities of the Island of Ireland that really is not going to be a major issue since such items will either be arriving at a very limited number of ports or airfields. Stuff actually made in Eire or NI will have a consistent level of import within it so once that has been agreed it is just a matter of paying anything due. It should require no more than random (or intelligence led, if they want to be posh about it) checks on the border from time to time.

    If we don't have a FTA and there are mutual tariffs to deal with along with no agreement on regulatory compliance things will get much more complicated but it is still far more of a problem for the EU (who allegedly are concerned about protecting the integrity of the Single Market or some such rubbish) than it is for us. If we take the default position that goods coming from the EU meet our standards, for example, we won't need to check them. If they are obsessed with us importing chlorinated chicken and then exporting it to Eire that is their concern.
  • Even SeanT wants another referendum.

    Change Is Coming.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    Watching that odious clown Boris shuffle uncomfortably in his seat as the once-useless Corbyn gently teased the insanity of his position was deeply embarrassing. How did this birdbrain become Foreign Secretary? May, who appointed him, should hang her head in shame. This country is a laughing stock – thanks to the witless imbeciles on the Tory front bench.

    Boris is the Trump or Berlusconi of Britain, given 1 is POTUS and the other's coalition is set to be the biggest block in the Italian Parliament on Sunday not such a bad place to be
    Johnson's latest incendiary interventions regarding the NI border imply he is totally unsuitable to become PM.I am not sure whether his responses are out of naivety or cynicism. If he does not believe the the ramifications of his statements are anything short of potentially downright dangerous were they come to pass he has no business being FS either!
    In the view of an ardent Remainer who he does not need to win a general election
    Someone who has the courage of his convictions, unlike you neobrexiteers who are led by the witless May into whichever wilderness CCHQ orders you to march.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,587
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    Watching that odious clown Boris shuffle uncomfortably in his seat as the once-useless Corbyn gently teased the insanity of his position was deeply embarrassing. How did this birdbrain become Foreign Secretary? May, who appointed him, should hang her head in shame. This country is a laughing stock – thanks to the witless imbeciles on the Tory front bench.

    Boris is the Trump or Berlusconi of Britain, given 1 is POTUS and the other's coalition is set to be the biggest block in the Italian Parliament on Sunday not such a bad place to be
    Johnson's latest incendiary interventions regarding the NI border imply he is totally unsuitable to become PM.I am not sure whether his responses are out of naivety or cynicism. If he does not believe the the ramifications of his statements are anything short of potentially downright dangerous were they come to pass he has no business being FS either!
    In the view of an ardent Remainer who he does not need to win a general election
    You have hit the nail on the head. Johnson has conveniently moved from Europhile to mild Eurosceptic to cliff-edge Brexiteer in 2 years. Why? To become Conservative Party leader and win a GE. Who cares about the collateral damage to achieve this end?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    Even SeanT wants another referendum.

    Change Is Coming.

    After all, no British PM could agree to the withdrawal agreement...
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    This isn't the sort of democracy that Leavers approve of:

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/968849333746585600


    ... and keep putting the issue back to the people until they get it right.

    Wouldn't it be awful no longer to be able to sneer at other countries for "being made to vote twice"?
    Yes it would be. One of the reasons the EU cheesed so many Brits off is precisely because they kept having a tin ear when people said "no". Look at the Dutch and the French on the Constitution. Any vaguely self aware democratic organisation would've taken genuine stock, and come back with something looser and less grandiose, not just effectively rub the bloody title out and replace it with "Lisbon Treaty", and say "hey presto" no need for a vote then.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Foxy said:

    stevef said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    Plans to shaft Northern Ireland by Boris does make that DUP bet look interesting.

    Boris' new support for a limited hard border between NI and the Republic would be fine by the DUP

    The shift in the brexiteer/neobrexiteer position over the past 18 months is illustrative of their complete lack of pragmatism, wit and imagination.

    Only a fool would leave the single market
    We will leave the single market
    Only a fool would risk the peace process by establishing a hard Irish border
    We will establish a 'limited' hard Irish border

    Next up: we will establish a hard Irish border and crash out on WTO terms.

    Anything – anything – to preserve PURITY!!!
    Well given the EU is making it almost impossible to do anything else and deliver full Brexit that may well end up the case
    Just maybe we WILL crash out, and the resulting economic chaos is so bad that the Tories struggle to hold Maidenhead and Witham and we crawl back into the EU. And into the Euro and Schengen.
    Hope it’s nowhere near as bad as that but the incompetence currently being displayed by the Government and to a lesser extent the Opposition suggests the possibility.
    Most Leave voters did so to end free movement and regain sovereignty, exactly what the EU is frustrating the government from doing and of course 2/3 of constituencies voted Leave.

    Had the Euro and Schengen been on the cards it would have been 90% of constituencies voting Leave
    I’m looking to the future, not the past.
    It will be almost 40 years before all the over 45s have disappeared from the electorate
    Won there be new over 45s?
    I think the evidence is that cultural attitudes do not change with age the way that political allegiences have in the past.

    Time will tell of course.
    I don't know, it seems as though the attitudes of all age groups change in the same way:

    http://www.bsa.natcen.ac.uk/media/39147/bsa34_moral_issues_final.pdf
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    Mr ERM himself is chiming up again I see...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    welshowl said:

    This isn't the sort of democracy that Leavers approve of:

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/968849333746585600


    ... and keep putting the issue back to the people until they get it right.

    Wouldn't it be awful no longer to be able to sneer at other countries for "being made to vote twice"?
    Yes it would be. One of the reasons the EU cheesed so many Brits off is precisely because they kept having a tin ear when people said "no". Look at the Dutch and the French on the Constitution. Any vaguely self aware democratic organisation would've taken genuine stock, and come back with something looser and less grandiose, not just effectively rub the bloody title out and replace it with "Lisbon Treaty", and say "hey presto" no need for a vote then.
    Perhaps after we vote twice, the EU will become as popular here as it is in Ireland.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    Watching that odious clown Boris shuffle uncomfortably in his seat as the once-useless Corbyn gently teased the insanity of his position was deeply embarrassing. How did this birdbrain become Foreign Secretary? May, who appointed him, should hang her head in shame. This country is a laughing stock – thanks to the witless imbeciles on the Tory front bench.

    Boris is the Trump or Berlusconi of Britain, given 1 is POTUS and the other's coalition is set to be the biggest block in the Italian Parliament on Sunday not such a bad place to be
    Johnson's latest incendiary interventions regarding the NI border imply he is totally unsuitable to become PM.I am not sure whether his responses are out of naivety or cynicism. If he does not believe the the ramifications of his statements are anything short of potentially downright dangerous were they come to pass he has no business being FS either!
    In the view of an ardent Remainer who he does not need to win a general election
    You have hit the nail on the head. Johnson has conveniently moved from Europhile to mild Eurosceptic to cliff-edge Brexiteer in 2 years. Why? To become Conservative Party leader and win a GE. Who cares about the collateral damage to achieve this end?
    To most Brexiteers reducing immigration and regaining sovereignty is not collateral damage
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774
    philiph said:

    https://www.ft.com/content/eafd4ece-1c8a-11e8-956a-43db76e69936
    Labour says will not accept further donations from Max Mosley

    This raises a question as to whether Max Mosley is a fit and proper person to fund IMPRESS

    I read the story in today's Times. Game set and match to News International against Mosley, in my view.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    Anazina said:

    DavidL said:

    Maybe we should just invade and conquer Eire. That would solve the EU's apparent difficulties and even with our much diminished forces probably wouldn't take more than a few days.

    Or maybe we can finally agree that trying to resolve the status of the Irish border separately from our relationship with the EU generally is simply nuts and that the EU position is completely barking.
    If we have a FTA with the EU what problem exists on the EIre border that does not exist right now and which both sides are quite happy to ignore? The only thing I can think of is third party imports into Eire or the UK. Surely that is just paperwork? And once again exactly the same issue we need to resolve with the rest of the EU?

    The creation of the "Irish Border Question" seems to have been entirely created for the purpose of frustrating Brexit negotiations, and hence Brexit itself.
    Yes, partition was done with the sole purpose of frustrating Brexit...
    It harks back to the potato famine of 1845. They say Phytophthora infestans was introduced into the ecosystem by visionary hardcore Remainers back in the day to stir up nationalist sympathies.
    What was the Member for Rushcliffe doing at the time? We need to be told.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    Remind me, did Major allow a free vote on Maastricht?
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    welshowl said:

    This isn't the sort of democracy that Leavers approve of:

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/968849333746585600


    ... and keep putting the issue back to the people until they get it right.

    Wouldn't it be awful no longer to be able to sneer at other countries for "being made to vote twice"?
    Yes it would be. One of the reasons the EU cheesed so many Brits off is precisely because they kept having a tin ear when people said "no". Look at the Dutch and the French on the Constitution. Any vaguely self aware democratic organisation would've taken genuine stock, and come back with something looser and less grandiose, not just effectively rub the bloody title out and replace it with "Lisbon Treaty", and say "hey presto" no need for a vote then.
    Perhaps after we vote twice, the EU will become as popular here as it is in Ireland.
    I think not somehow.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    welshowl said:

    This isn't the sort of democracy that Leavers approve of:

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/968849333746585600


    ... and keep putting the issue back to the people until they get it right.

    Wouldn't it be awful no longer to be able to sneer at other countries for "being made to vote twice"?
    Yes it would be. One of the reasons the EU cheesed so many Brits off is precisely because they kept having a tin ear when people said "no". Look at the Dutch and the French on the Constitution. Any vaguely self aware democratic organisation would've taken genuine stock, and come back with something looser and less grandiose, not just effectively rub the bloody title out and replace it with "Lisbon Treaty", and say "hey presto" no need for a vote then.
    If there was a second referendum forced after a crisis, especially one of Pacific Islander Remainer/EU making, I suspect it would be 60/40 to Leave....
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Mortimer said:

    welshowl said:

    This isn't the sort of democracy that Leavers approve of:

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/968849333746585600


    ... and keep putting the issue back to the people until they get it right.

    Wouldn't it be awful no longer to be able to sneer at other countries for "being made to vote twice"?
    Yes it would be. One of the reasons the EU cheesed so many Brits off is precisely because they kept having a tin ear when people said "no". Look at the Dutch and the French on the Constitution. Any vaguely self aware democratic organisation would've taken genuine stock, and come back with something looser and less grandiose, not just effectively rub the bloody title out and replace it with "Lisbon Treaty", and say "hey presto" no need for a vote then.
    If there was a second referendum forced after a crisis, especially one of Pacific Islander Remainer/EU making, I suspect it would be 60/40 to Leave....
    What you suspect is immaterial.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    20 months ago was the time to make that call. But you lost the argument and you lost the vote back then, Mr. Major. Blame the shit campaign your side ran.

    While you're are at it, do you want to re-run the 1997 election? Convince us now of what a shit that Tony Blair is going to turn out to be?
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    Plans to shaft Northern Ireland by Boris does make that DUP bet look interesting.

    Boris' new support for a limited hard border between NI and the Republic would be fine by the DUP

    The shift in the brexiteer/neobrexiteer position over the past 18 months is illustrative of their complete lack of pragmatism, wit and imagination.

    Only a fool would leave the single market
    We will leave the single market
    Only a fool would risk the peace process by establishing a hard Irish border
    We will establish a 'limited' hard Irish border

    Next up: we will establish a hard Irish border and crash out on WTO terms.

    Anything – anything – to preserve PURITY!!!
    Well given the EU is making it almost impossible to do anything else and deliver full Brexit that may well end up the case
    Just maybe we WILL crash out, and the resulting economic chaos is so bad that the Tories struggle to hold Maidenhead and Witham and we crawl back into the EU. And into the Euro and Schengen.
    Hope it’s nowhere near as bad as that but the incompetence currently being displayed by the Government and to a lesser extent the Opposition suggests the possibility.
    Most Leave voters did so to end free movement and regain sovereignty, exactly what the EU is frustrating the government from doing and of course 2/3 of constituencies voted Leave.

    Had the Euro and Schengen been on the cards it would have been 90% of constituencies voting Leave
    Your last point is a pile of horseshit and you know it. There was polling highlighted on this site not that long ago showing that more than 30% of voters would prefer joining the Euro to Brexit. Still a minority yes, but a significant minority which may well grow if Brexit turns into a complete shambles which begins to seriously impact day to day life. It's not beyond the realms of possibility that 50% of people would favour swiftly rejoining in such a scenario.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    DavidL said:

    Anazina said:

    DavidL said:

    Maybe we should just invade and conquer Eire. That would solve the EU's apparent difficulties and even with our much diminished forces probably wouldn't take more than a few days.

    Or maybe we can finally agree that trying to resolve the status of the Irish border separately from our relationship with the EU generally is simply nuts and that the EU position is completely barking.
    If we have a FTA with the EU what problem exists on the EIre border that does not exist right now and which both sides are quite happy to ignore? The only thing I can think of is third party imports into Eire or the UK. Surely that is just paperwork? And once again exactly the same issue we need to resolve with the rest of the EU?

    The creation of the "Irish Border Question" seems to have been entirely created for the purpose of frustrating Brexit negotiations, and hence Brexit itself.
    Yes, partition was done with the sole purpose of frustrating Brexit...
    It harks back to the potato famine of 1845. They say Phytophthora infestans was introduced into the ecosystem by visionary hardcore Remainers back in the day to stir up nationalist sympathies.
    What was the Member for Rushcliffe doing at the time? We need to be told.
    Probably the bare minimum....
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    DavidL said:

    Anazina said:

    DavidL said:

    Maybe we should just invade and conquer Eire. That would solve the EU's apparent difficulties and even with our much diminished forces probably wouldn't take more than a few days.

    Or maybe we can finally agree that trying to resolve the status of the Irish border separately from our relationship with the EU generally is simply nuts and that the EU position is completely barking.
    If we have a FTA with the EU what problem exists on the EIre border that does not exist right now and which both sides are quite happy to ignore? The only thing I can think of is third party imports into Eire or the UK. Surely that is just paperwork? And once again exactly the same issue we need to resolve with the rest of the EU?

    The creation of the "Irish Border Question" seems to have been entirely created for the purpose of frustrating Brexit negotiations, and hence Brexit itself.
    Yes, partition was done with the sole purpose of frustrating Brexit...
    It harks back to the potato famine of 1845. They say Phytophthora infestans was introduced into the ecosystem by visionary hardcore Remainers back in the day to stir up nationalist sympathies.
    What was the Member for Rushcliffe doing at the time? We need to be told.
    Spotted in the Wicklow Mountains armed with test tubes.
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    AndyJS said:

    I think the EU could disintegrate without the UK as a member. Anyone agree?

    I absolutely agree. Thats why they are being so difficult
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,973
    I see the same old remainer grandees still continue to make the same mistakes they did in the referendum itself.

    There's a case for what Major is trying to say. But for remain to ever gain any traction they need different people fronting their attempted pincer movement.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    Anazina said:

    Mortimer said:

    welshowl said:

    This isn't the sort of democracy that Leavers approve of:

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/968849333746585600


    ... and keep putting the issue back to the people until they get it right.

    Wouldn't it be awful no longer to be able to sneer at other countries for "being made to vote twice"?
    Yes it would be. One of the reasons the EU cheesed so many Brits off is precisely because they kept having a tin ear when people said "no". Look at the Dutch and the French on the Constitution. Any vaguely self aware democratic organisation would've taken genuine stock, and come back with something looser and less grandiose, not just effectively rub the bloody title out and replace it with "Lisbon Treaty", and say "hey presto" no need for a vote then.
    If there was a second referendum forced after a crisis, especially one of Pacific Islander Remainer/EU making, I suspect it would be 60/40 to Leave....
    What you suspect is immaterial.

    Au contraire.

    It is a necessary reminder of the golden rule of Brexit: that Remainers' glee is inversely proportional to their ability to influence events
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545
    edited February 2018
    DavidL said:

    Maybe we should just invade and conquer Eire. That would solve the EU's apparent difficulties and even with our much diminished forces probably wouldn't take more than a few days.

    Or maybe we can finally agree that trying to resolve the status of the Irish border separately from our relationship with the EU generally is simply nuts and that the EU position is completely barking. If we have a FTA with the EU what problem exists on the EIre border that does not exist right now and which both sides are quite happy to ignore? The only thing I can think of is third party imports into Eire or the UK. Surely that is just paperwork? And once again exactly the same issue we need to resolve with the rest of the EU?

    I think the EU position on the Irish border, unlike ours, is crystal clear and logical. (a) They need to control what happens on their territory. (b) They are committed by treaty to not operating the Irish border. Logically his means their control needs to extend past that border. Of course that means controlling territory that is not theirs. The UK understandably objects to that. The UK position on the Irish border is that it commits it to be open, it will control it and in any case it doesn't matter whether it's open or not. The only way these contradictions will be resolved is if the UK commits to controlling Northern Ireland on a identical basis to the EU. So far it has refused to do so.

    The ball is in our court. We can continue to reject common regulation with the EU for Northern Ireland and take our chance on either the EU folding or doing without a transition. I don't rate that chance particularly highly. The government thought they could get away with making casual commitments that they could quietly forget about. That won't work.
  • HHemmeligHHemmelig Posts: 617
    edited February 2018
    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    Watching that odious clown Boris shuffle uncomfortably in his seat as the once-useless Corbyn gently teased the insanity of his position was deeply embarrassing. How did this birdbrain become Foreign Secretary? May, who appointed him, should hang her head in shame. This country is a laughing stock – thanks to the witless imbeciles on the Tory front bench.

    Boris is the Trump or Berlusconi of Britain, given 1 is POTUS and the other's coalition is set to be the biggest block in the Italian Parliament on Sunday not such a bad place to be
    You actually want the UK to be led by a Berlusconi or a Trump? The Conservative party has gone mad, as John Major intimated in his excellent speech today.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,587
    HYUFD

    You are sledging me now!

    You know perfectly well what I am alluding to! Johnson's disregard for the GFA could return us to what went on before. Do we really want that in order to ensure PM Boris?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    HHemmelig said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    Plans to shaft Northern Ireland by Boris does make that DUP bet look interesting.

    Boris' new support for a limited hard border between NI and the Republic would be fine by the DUP

    The shift in the brexiteer/neobrexiteer position over the past 18 months is illustrative of their complete lack of pragmatism, wit and imagination.

    Only a fool would leave the single market
    We will leave the single market
    Only a fool would risk the peace process by establishing a hard Irish border
    We will establish a 'limited' hard Irish border

    Next up: we will establish a hard Irish border and crash out on WTO terms.

    Anything – anything – to preserve PURITY!!!
    Well given the EU is making it almost impossible to do anything else and deliver full Brexit that may well end up the case
    Just maybe we WILL crash out, and the resulting economic chaos is so bad that the Tories struggle to hold Maidenhead and Witham and we crawl back into the EU. And into the Euro and Schengen.
    Hope it’s nowhere near as bad as that but the incompetence currently being displayed by the Government and to a lesser extent the Opposition suggests the possibility.
    Most Leave voters did so to end free movement and regain sovereignty, exactly what the EU is frustrating the government from doing and of course 2/3 of constituencies voted Leave.

    Had the Euro and Schengen been on the cards it would have been 90% of constituencies voting Leave
    Your last point is a pile of horseshit and you know it. There was polling highlighted on this site not that long ago showing that more than 30% of voters would prefer joining the Euro to Brexit. Still a minority yes, but a significant minority which may well grow if Brexit turns into a complete shambles which begins to seriously impact day to day life. It's not beyond the realms of possibility that 50% of people would favour swiftly rejoining in such a scenario.
    If the result was 70/30, and we assumed a UNS, 89% of constituencies would have voted leave. I think you just made HYUFD's point.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    So, JM says the bastards are back and running roughshod over the PM, Parliament, and the British public...

    And he's right!
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    HHemmelig said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    Watching that odious clown Boris shuffle uncomfortably in his seat as the once-useless Corbyn gently teased the insanity of his position was deeply embarrassing. How did this birdbrain become Foreign Secretary? May, who appointed him, should hang her head in shame. This country is a laughing stock – thanks to the witless imbeciles on the Tory front bench.

    Boris is the Trump or Berlusconi of Britain, given 1 is POTUS and the other's coalition is set to be the biggest block in the Italian Parliament on Sunday not such a bad place to be
    You actually want the UK to be lead by a Berlusconi or a Trump? The Conservative party has gone mad, as John Major intimated in his excellent speech today.
    Their only goal is PURITY.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    Reading Major's speech, and the Twitter feed of such as Anna Soubry, it strikes me that - however numerous her failings - May is the only thing holding the Conservatives together. When she goes, the party splits.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Mortimer said:

    Anazina said:

    Mortimer said:

    welshowl said:

    This isn't the sort of democracy that Leavers approve of:

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/968849333746585600


    ... and keep putting the issue back to the people until they get it right.

    Wouldn't it be awful no longer to be able to sneer at other countries for "being made to vote twice"?
    Yes it would be. One of the reasons the EU cheesed so many Brits off is precisely because they kept having a tin ear when people said "no". Look at the Dutch and the French on the Constitution. Any vaguely self aware democratic organisation would've taken genuine stock, and come back with something looser and less grandiose, not just effectively rub the bloody title out and replace it with "Lisbon Treaty", and say "hey presto" no need for a vote then.
    If there was a second referendum forced after a crisis, especially one of Pacific Islander Remainer/EU making, I suspect it would be 60/40 to Leave....
    What you suspect is immaterial.

    Au contraire.

    It is a necessary reminder of the golden rule of Brexit: that Remainers' glee is inversely proportional to their ability to influence events
    What glee would this be then? I am utterly miserable.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    DavidL said:

    Maybe we should just invade and conquer Eire. That would solve the EU's apparent difficulties and even with our much diminished forces probably wouldn't take more than a few days.

    Or maybe we can finally agree that trying to resolve the status of the Irish border separately from our relationship with the EU generally is simply nuts and that the EU position is completely barking.
    If we have a FTA with the EU what problem exists on the EIre border that does not exist right now and which both sides are quite happy to ignore? The only thing I can think of is third party imports into Eire or the UK. Surely that is just paperwork? And once again exactly the same issue we need to resolve with the rest of the EU?

    Remember that once we leave the EU Ireland is a more powerful state than the UK. It will be more likely for them to invade and conquer us.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    HHemmelig said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    Plans to shaft Northern Ireland by Boris does make that DUP bet look interesting.

    Boris' new support for a limited hard border between NI and the Republic would be fine by the DUP

    The shift in the brexiteer/neobrexiteer position over the past 18 months is illustrative of their complete lack of pragmatism, wit and imagination.

    Only a fool would leave the single market
    We will leave the single market
    Only a fool would risk the peace process by establishing a hard Irish border
    We will establish a 'limited' hard Irish border

    Next up: we will establish a hard Irish border and crash out on WTO terms.

    Anything – anything – to preserve PURITY!!!
    Well given the EU is making it almost impossible to do anything else and deliver full Brexit that may well end up the case
    Just maybe we WILL crash out, and the resulting economic chaos is so bad that the Tories struggle to hold Maidenhead and Witham and we crawl back into the EU. And into the Euro and Schengen.
    Hope it’s nowhere near as bad as that but the incompetence currently being displayed by the Government and to a lesser extent the Opposition suggests the possibility.
    Most Leave voters did so to end free movement and regain sovereignty, exactly what the EU is frustrating the government from doing and of course 2/3 of constituencies voted Leave.

    Had the Euro and Schengen been on the cards it would have been 90% of constituencies voting Leave
    Your last point is a pile of horseshit and you know it. There was polling highlighted on this site not that long ago showing that more than 30% of voters would prefer joining the Euro to Brexit. Still a minority yes, but a significant minority which may well grow if Brexit turns into a complete shambles which begins to seriously impact day to day life. It's not beyond the realms of possibility that 50% of people would favour swiftly rejoining in such a scenario.
    Given 48% voted Remain and Remain only won 1/3 of constituencies it was not horseshit.

    If the Euro ever came on the cards we could firmly rule out ever rejoining
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    Anazina said:

    DavidL said:

    Anazina said:

    DavidL said:

    Maybe we should just invade and conquer Eire. That would solve the EU's apparent difficulties and even with our much diminished forces probably wouldn't take more than a few days.

    Or maybe we can finally agree that trying to resolve the status of the Irish border separately from our relationship with the EU generally is simply nuts and that the EU position is completely barking.
    If we have a FTA with the EU what problem exists on the EIre border that does not exist right now and which both sides are quite happy to ignore? The only thing I can think of is third party imports into Eire or the UK. Surely that is just paperwork? And once again exactly the same issue we need to resolve with the rest of the EU?

    The creation of the "Irish Border Question" seems to have been entirely created for the purpose of frustrating Brexit negotiations, and hence Brexit itself.
    Yes, partition was done with the sole purpose of frustrating Brexit...
    It harks back to the potato famine of 1845. They say Phytophthora infestans was introduced into the ecosystem by visionary hardcore Remainers back in the day to stir up nationalist sympathies.
    What was the Member for Rushcliffe doing at the time? We need to be told.
    Spotted in the Wicklow Mountains armed with test tubes.
    No wonder the IRA tried to kill him twice.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Reading Major's speech, and the Twitter feed of such as Anna Soubry, it strikes me that - however numerous her failings - May is the only thing holding the Conservatives together. When she goes, the party splits.

    The splits have always been there, the shoe is now just on the other foot, as it were.
  • Leavers mobilising for a Two Minutes Hate is always a wondrous sight to behold, like the murmuration of starlings or the migrations of wildebeest across the savannah.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,722

    DavidL said:

    Maybe we should just invade and conquer Eire. That would solve the EU's apparent difficulties and even with our much diminished forces probably wouldn't take more than a few days.

    Or maybe we can finally agree that trying to resolve the status of the Irish border separately from our relationship with the EU generally is simply nuts and that the EU position is completely barking.
    If we have a FTA with the EU what problem exists on the EIre border that does not exist right now and which both sides are quite happy to ignore? The only thing I can think of is third party imports into Eire or the UK. Surely that is just paperwork? And once again exactly the same issue we need to resolve with the rest of the EU?

    Remember that once we leave the EU Ireland is a more powerful state than the UK. It will be more likely for them to invade and conquer us.
    MacAlpines Fusiliers to the fore?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    Scott_P said:

    So, JM says the bastards are back and running roughshod over the PM, Parliament, and the British public...

    And he's right!

    Our current problems in the EU can be laid at JMs door.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772

    Leavers mobilising for a Two Minutes Hate is always a wondrous sight to behold, like the murmuration of starlings or the migrations of wildebeest across the savannah.

    Can I have some of what you're smoking?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited February 2018
    Useless facts:

    The swing from Conservative to Labour in 2017 was exactly the same as in 1992 to two decimal places: 2.04%.

    2017 changes:
    Con +5.77%
    Lab +9.84%

    1992 changes:
    Con -0.40%
    Lab +3.67%
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    edited February 2018
    Anazina said:

    Mortimer said:

    Anazina said:

    Mortimer said:

    welshowl said:

    This isn't the sort of democracy that Leavers approve of:

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/968849333746585600


    ... and keep putting the issue back to the people until they get it right.

    Wouldn't it be awful no longer to be able to sneer at other countries for "being made to vote twice"?
    Yes it would be. One of the reasons the EU cheesed so many Brits off is precisely because they kept having a tin ear when people said "no". Look at the Dutch and the French on the Constitution. Any vaguely self aware democratic organisation would've taken genuine stock, and come back with something looser and less grandiose, not just effectively rub the bloody title out and replace it with "Lisbon Treaty", and say "hey presto" no need for a vote then.
    If there was a second referendum forced after a crisis, especially one of Pacific Islander Remainer/EU making, I suspect it would be 60/40 to Leave....
    What you suspect is immaterial.

    Au contraire.

    It is a necessary reminder of the golden rule of Brexit: that Remainers' glee is inversely proportional to their ability to influence events
    What glee would this be then? I am utterly miserable.
    The Remainers think they are on to something; though most informed spectators suspect that the Govt will win the Customs Union vote. A significant proportion of our opinion makers are seemingly willing to swallow Brussels guff at every opportunity. And bookies come out with hilariously poor value bets like 3-1 that May won't last another 32 days in office (bearing in mind the CU vote wont be before then, anyway) to tempt the wishful thinking thwarters.

    Yup, Remainer glee - just like over Miller, Chapman and Obama's 'back of the queue'
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772

    DavidL said:

    Maybe we should just invade and conquer Eire. That would solve the EU's apparent difficulties and even with our much diminished forces probably wouldn't take more than a few days.

    Or maybe we can finally agree that trying to resolve the status of the Irish border separately from our relationship with the EU generally is simply nuts and that the EU position is completely barking.
    If we have a FTA with the EU what problem exists on the EIre border that does not exist right now and which both sides are quite happy to ignore? The only thing I can think of is third party imports into Eire or the UK. Surely that is just paperwork? And once again exactly the same issue we need to resolve with the rest of the EU?

    Remember that once we leave the EU Ireland is a more powerful state than the UK. It will be more likely for them to invade and conquer us.
    I am trembling already.... My lord, is there no end to these delusions?
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    Plans to shaft Northern Ireland by Boris does make that DUP bet look interesting.

    Boris' new support for a limited hard border between NI and the Republic would be fine by the DUP

    The shift in the brexiteer/neobrexiteer position over the past 18 months is illustrative of their complete lack of pragmatism, wit and imagination.

    Only a fool would leave the single market
    We will leave the single market
    Only a fool would risk the peace process by establishing a hard Irish border
    We will establish a 'limited' hard Irish border

    Next up: we will establish a hard Irish border and crash out on WTO terms.

    Anything – anything – to preserve PURITY!!!
    Well given the EU is making it almost impossible to do anything else and deliver full Brexit that may well end up the case
    Just maybe we WILL crash out, and the resulting economic chaos is so bad that the Tories struggle to hold Maidenhead and Witham and we crawl back into the EU. And into the Euro and Schengen.
    Hope it’s nowhere near as bad as that but the incompetence currently being displayed by the Government and to a lesser extent the Opposition suggests the possibility.
    Most Leave voters did so to end free movement and regain sovereignty, exactly what the EU is frustrating the government from doing and of course 2/3 of constituencies voted Leave.

    Had the Euro and Schengen been on the cards it would have been 90% of constituencies voting Leave
    I’m looking to the future, not the past.
    Our political views are often different, but I hope I am as forward-looking and considerate of the future for the younger generations as you are when I am 80.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    RobD said:

    Reading Major's speech, and the Twitter feed of such as Anna Soubry, it strikes me that - however numerous her failings - May is the only thing holding the Conservatives together. When she goes, the party splits.

    The splits have always been there, the shoe is now just on the other foot, as it were.
    They have. But generally the Conservatives have had consensual leaders who have managed to paper over the splits. (Thatcher is the only significant counter-example; she and her acolytes were astonishingly good at party management, but even then there were enough high-profile flounces.)

    There is no sign of a consensual leader in the wings. Right now, May is the best they've got. Once she's gone, the already fragile consensus within the party breaks down.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    DavidL said:

    Maybe we should just invade and conquer Eire. That would solve the EU's apparent difficulties and even with our much diminished forces probably wouldn't take more than a few days.

    Or maybe we can finally agree that trying to resolve the status of the Irish border separately from our relationship with the EU generally is simply nuts and that the EU position is completely barking.
    If we have a FTA with the EU what problem exists on the EIre border that does not exist right now and which both sides are quite happy to ignore? The only thing I can think of is third party imports into Eire or the UK. Surely that is just paperwork? And once again exactly the same issue we need to resolve with the rest of the EU?

    Remember that once we leave the EU Ireland is a more powerful state than the UK. It will be more likely for them to invade and conquer us.
    Shark jump.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited February 2018
    The 3/1 in the headline is available at 25.0 on Betfair. Come on, Mike.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.125589838
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD

    You are sledging me now!

    You know perfectly well what I am alluding to! Johnson's disregard for the GFA could return us to what went on before. Do we really want that in order to ensure PM Boris?

    Given the DUP and SF have refused to share power for a year they are doing that for themselves Brexit or no Brexit
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    welshowl said:

    DavidL said:

    Maybe we should just invade and conquer Eire. That would solve the EU's apparent difficulties and even with our much diminished forces probably wouldn't take more than a few days.

    Or maybe we can finally agree that trying to resolve the status of the Irish border separately from our relationship with the EU generally is simply nuts and that the EU position is completely barking.
    If we have a FTA with the EU what problem exists on the EIre border that does not exist right now and which both sides are quite happy to ignore? The only thing I can think of is third party imports into Eire or the UK. Surely that is just paperwork? And once again exactly the same issue we need to resolve with the rest of the EU?

    Remember that once we leave the EU Ireland is a more powerful state than the UK. It will be more likely for them to invade and conquer us.
    Shark jump.
    I think you'll find it's the Brexiteers accusing Ireland of annexing part of the UK.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    Reading Major's speech, and the Twitter feed of such as Anna Soubry, it strikes me that - however numerous her failings - May is the only thing holding the Conservatives together. When she goes, the party splits.

    This is one of the reasons why predictions of her demise are exaggerated.

    I still wonder if she stays long after next March, personally.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    RobD said:

    HHemmelig said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    Plans to shaft Northern Ireland by Boris does make that DUP bet look interesting.

    Boris' new support for a limited hard border between NI and the Republic would be fine by the DUP

    The shift in the brexiteer/neobrexiteer position over the past 18 months is illustrative of their complete lack of pragmatism, wit and imagination.

    Only a fool would leave the single market
    We will leave the single market
    Only a fool would risk the peace process by establishing a hard Irish border
    We will establish a 'limited' hard Irish border

    Next up: we will establish a hard Irish border and crash out on WTO terms.

    Anything – anything – to preserve PURITY!!!
    Well given the EU is making it almost impossible to do anything else and deliver full Brexit that may well end up the case
    Just maybe we WILL crash out, and the resulting economic chaos is so bad that the Tories struggle to hold Maidenhead and Witham and we crawl back into the EU. And into the Euro and Schengen.
    Hope it’s nowhere near as bad as that but the incompetence currently being displayed by the Government and to a lesser extent the Opposition suggests the possibility.
    Most Leave voters did so to end free movement and regain sovereignty, exactly what the EU is frustrating the government from doing and of course 2/3 of constituencies voted Leave.

    Had the Euro and Schengen been on the cards it would have been 90% of constituencies voting Leave
    Your last point is a pile of horseshit and you know it. There was polling highlighted on this site not that long ago showing that more than 30% of voters would prefer joining the Euro to Brexit. Still a minority yes, but a significant minority which may well grow if Brexit turns into a complete shambles which begins to seriously impact day to day life. It's not beyond the realms of possibility that 50% of people would favour swiftly rejoining in such a scenario.
    If the result was 70/30, and we assumed a UNS, 89% of constituencies would have voted leave. I think you just made HYUFD's point.
    Exactly, Remainers piling up votes in inner city seats does not help them in marginals
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    DavidL said:

    Maybe we should just invade and conquer Eire. That would solve the EU's apparent difficulties and even with our much diminished forces probably wouldn't take more than a few days.

    Or maybe we can finally agree that trying to resolve the status of the Irish border separately from our relationship with the EU generally is simply nuts and that the EU position is completely barking.
    If we have a FTA with the EU what problem exists on the EIre border that does not exist right now and which both sides are quite happy to ignore? The only thing I can think of is third party imports into Eire or the UK. Surely that is just paperwork? And once again exactly the same issue we need to resolve with the rest of the EU?

    Remember that once we leave the EU Ireland is a more powerful state than the UK. It will be more likely for them to invade and conquer us.
    If Hitler and Napoleon and Philip II could not conquer us I doubt Leo Varadkar will
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    John Major is making a fool of himself. I voted remain but leave won therefore we must leave. Democracy must be obeyed.
  • Leavers mobilising for a Two Minutes Hate is always a wondrous sight to behold, like the murmuration of starlings or the migrations of wildebeest across the savannah.


    Collective noun for a group of Remainers - a superfluity.
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    Scott_P said:

    So, JM says the bastards are back and running roughshod over the PM, Parliament, and the British public...

    And he's right!

    Remind me what was the result of the referendum
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545
    currystar said:

    John Major is making a fool of himself. I voted remain but leave won therefore we must leave. Democracy must be obeyed.

    Leave to what? I think that's Sir John's point. We are certainly not leaving to what was promised by those promoting Leave.
  • HYUFD said:

    HHemmelig said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    Plans to shaft Northern Ireland by Boris does make that DUP bet look interesting.

    Boris' new support for a limited hard border between NI and the Republic would be fine by the DUP

    The shift in the brexiteer/neobrexiteer position over the past 18 months is illustrative of their complete lack of pragmatism, wit and imagination.

    Only a fool would leave the single market
    We will leave the single market
    Only a fool would risk the peace process by establishing a hard Irish border
    We will establish a 'limited' hard Irish border

    Next up: we will establish a hard Irish border and crash out on WTO terms.

    Anything – anything – to preserve PURITY!!!
    Well given the EU is making it almost impossible to do anything else and deliver full Brexit that may well end up the case
    Just maybe we WILL crash out, and the resulting economic chaos is so bad that the Tories struggle to hold Maidenhead and Witham and we crawl back into the EU. And into the Euro and Schengen.
    Hope it’s nowhere near as bad as that but the incompetence currently being displayed by the Government and to a lesser extent the Opposition suggests the possibility.
    Most Leave voters did so to end free movement and regain sovereignty, exactly what the EU is frustrating the government from doing and of course 2/3 of constituencies voted Leave.

    Had the Euro and Schengen been on the cards it would have been 90% of constituencies voting Leave
    Your last point is a pile of horseshit and you know it. There was polling highlighted on this site not that long ago showing that more than 30% of voters would prefer joining the Euro to Brexit. Still a minority yes, but a significant minority which may well grow if Brexit turns into a complete shambles which begins to seriously impact day to day life. It's not beyond the realms of possibility that 50% of people would favour swiftly rejoining in such a scenario.
    Given 48% voted Remain and Remain only won 1/3 of constituencies it was not horseshit.

    If the Euro ever came on the cards we could firmly rule out ever rejoining
    Lets have first past the post by constituency for the next Brexit referendum.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    FF43 said:

    currystar said:

    John Major is making a fool of himself. I voted remain but leave won therefore we must leave. Democracy must be obeyed.

    Leave to what? I think that's Sir John's point. We are certainly not leaving to what was promised by those promoting Leave.
    Are we not? The current plan involves the ending freedom of movement, leaving the single market and no longer paying the EU however many million a week.
  • FF43 said:

    currystar said:

    John Major is making a fool of himself. I voted remain but leave won therefore we must leave. Democracy must be obeyed.

    Leave to what? I think that's Sir John's point. We are certainly not leaving to what was promised by those promoting Leave.
    I guess Sir John did not want to become Lord John because it was a gents clothes shop.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,545
    currystar said:

    John Major is making a fool of himself. I voted remain but leave won therefore we must leave. Democracy must be obeyed.

    That was my view for a while - but I then realised quite how little plan the Leavers had, and how many of the promises were false, and that the vote was won on a flawed prospectus a la PPI.

    Would there be any point, any cost, where you would think again whether the country should go through with it?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    currystar said:

    John Major is making a fool of himself. I voted remain but leave won therefore we must leave. Democracy must be obeyed.

    Leave to what? I think that's Sir John's point. We are certainly not leaving to what was promised by those promoting Leave.
    Are we not? The current plan involves the ending freedom of movement, leaving the single market and no longer paying the EU however many million a week.
    That's not a plan, Rob.
  • HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    Maybe we should just invade and conquer Eire. That would solve the EU's apparent difficulties and even with our much diminished forces probably wouldn't take more than a few days.

    Or maybe we can finally agree that trying to resolve the status of the Irish border separately from our relationship with the EU generally is simply nuts and that the EU position is completely barking.
    If we have a FTA with the EU what problem exists on the EIre border that does not exist right now and which both sides are quite happy to ignore? The only thing I can think of is third party imports into Eire or the UK. Surely that is just paperwork? And once again exactly the same issue we need to resolve with the rest of the EU?

    Remember that once we leave the EU Ireland is a more powerful state than the UK. It will be more likely for them to invade and conquer us.
    If Hitler and Napoleon and Philip II could not conquer us I doubt Leo Varadkar will

    Who is our Churchill today? Who is our Wellington today?
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    What a collossal cheek by the Tories biggest general election loser.

    There he is:John Major, looking more like his Spitting Image puppet than ever, the man who lost the general election of 1997 by a bigger margin than any prime minister since the Duke of Wellington; the man whose big idea in 7 years in power was the "cones hotline"

    The man who presided over the economic chaos of Black Wednesday, who presided over the biggest rise in interest rates in a single day since records began.

    The prime minister who was mocked by cartoonists for wearing his underpants outside his trousers.

    Has the temerity to stand in front of the cameras this afternoon and tell the British People, in alliance with his nemesis, Tony Blair, that the British Establishment will not accept the biggest vote for change in British political history in the 2016 referendum, that they must think again, that the unelected House of Lords should overrule a democratic vote by the people.

    And to present that arrogance as a matter of conscience.

    Major and Blair, the Laurel and Hardy of British politics who think they know better than the People.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    currystar said:

    Remind me what was the result of the referendum

    We collectively voted to repeatedly punch ourselves in the face until further notice.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited February 2018

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    Maybe we should just invade and conquer Eire. That would solve the EU's apparent difficulties and even with our much diminished forces probably wouldn't take more than a few days.

    Or maybe we can finally agree that trying to resolve the status of the Irish border separately from our relationship with the EU generally is simply nuts and that the EU position is completely barking.
    If we have a FTA with the EU what problem exists on the EIre border that does not exist right now and which both sides are quite happy to ignore? The only thing I can think of is third party imports into Eire or the UK. Surely that is just paperwork? And once again exactly the same issue we need to resolve with the rest of the EU?

    Remember that once we leave the EU Ireland is a more powerful state than the UK. It will be more likely for them to invade and conquer us.
    If Hitler and Napoleon and Philip II could not conquer us I doubt Leo Varadkar will

    Who is our Churchill today? Who is our Wellington today?
    Boris and Rees Mogg of course! With maybe May as Elizabeth 1st
  • tpfkar said:

    currystar said:

    John Major is making a fool of himself. I voted remain but leave won therefore we must leave. Democracy must be obeyed.

    That was my view for a while - but I then realised quite how little plan the Leavers had, and how many of the promises were false, and that the vote was won on a flawed prospectus a la PPI.

    Would there be any point, any cost, where you would think again whether the country should go through with it?
    I'm not in favour of a second referendum because there is no particular evidence that the unfolding events have significantly influenced the public. It's been a shitshow but it seems that most voters had priced that in before their vote.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044

    tpfkar said:

    currystar said:

    John Major is making a fool of himself. I voted remain but leave won therefore we must leave. Democracy must be obeyed.

    That was my view for a while - but I then realised quite how little plan the Leavers had, and how many of the promises were false, and that the vote was won on a flawed prospectus a la PPI.

    Would there be any point, any cost, where you would think again whether the country should go through with it?
    I'm not in favour of a second referendum because there is no particular evidence that the unfolding events have significantly influenced the public. It's been a shitshow but it seems that most voters had priced that in before their vote.
    Because you would lose it.
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    tpfkar said:

    currystar said:

    John Major is making a fool of himself. I voted remain but leave won therefore we must leave. Democracy must be obeyed.

    That was my view for a while - but I then realised quite how little plan the Leavers had, and how many of the promises were false, and that the vote was won on a flawed prospectus a la PPI.

    Would there be any point, any cost, where you would think again whether the country should go through with it?
    No one has any idea what will happen when we leave. According to the remain side we should be in a deep recession now. It was the terrible campaign of potential armaggedon by the remain side which led to leave winning. Lies were equal on both sides. Forecasts are always wrong. The country voted leave, thats it. Churchill won the war then lost the election. Democracy can be mad sometimes but it must be obeyed.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:

    HHemmelig said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    Plans to shaft Northern Ireland by Boris does make that DUP bet look interesting.

    Boris' new support for a limited hard border between NI and the Republic would be fine by the DUP

    The shift in the brexiteer/neobrexiteer position over the past 18 months is illustrative of their complete lack of pragmatism, wit and imagination.

    Only a fool would leave the single market
    We will leave the single market
    Only a fool would risk the peace process by establishing a hard Irish border
    We will establish a 'limited' hard Irish border

    Next up: we will establish a hard Irish border and crash out on WTO terms.

    Anything – anything – to preserve PURITY!!!
    Well given the EU is making it almost impossible to do anything else and deliver full Brexit that may well end up the case
    Just maybe we WILL crash out, and the resulting economic chaos is so bad that the Tories struggle to hold Maidenhead and Witham and we crawl back into the EU. And into the Euro and Schengen.
    Hope it’s nowhere near as bad as that but the incompetence currently being displayed by the Government and to a lesser extent the Opposition suggests the possibility.
    Most Leave voters did so to end free movement and regain sovereignty, exactly what the EU is frustrating the government from doing and of course 2/3 of constituencies voted Leave.

    Had the Euro and Schengen been on the cards it would have been 90% of constituencies voting Leave
    Your last point is a pile of horseshit and you know it. There was polling highlighted on this site not that long ago showing that more than 30% of voters would prefer joining the Euro to Brexit. Still a minority yes, but a significant minority which may well grow if Brexit turns into a complete shambles which begins to seriously impact day to day life. It's not beyond the realms of possibility that 50% of people would favour swiftly rejoining in such a scenario.
    Given 48% voted Remain and Remain only won 1/3 of constituencies it was not horseshit.

    If the Euro ever came on the cards we could firmly rule out ever rejoining
    Lets have first past the post by constituency for the next Brexit referendum.
    It would be a 1983 or 1997 style landslide for Leave yes
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    stevef said:

    What a collossal cheek by the Tories biggest general election loser.

    Ahem:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p4YY7KWJAtA
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    tpfkar said:

    currystar said:

    John Major is making a fool of himself. I voted remain but leave won therefore we must leave. Democracy must be obeyed.

    That was my view for a while - but I then realised quite how little plan the Leavers had, and how many of the promises were false, and that the vote was won on a flawed prospectus a la PPI.

    Would there be any point, any cost, where you would think again whether the country should go through with it?
    If we have a second referendum I would like two options (which I think are the only viable ones) with a brief indication of key points, warts and all. For example

    Do you think UK should:

    i) Join EU fully, Schengen, Euro, Ever closer union, FOM
    ii) Leave EU completely, SM, CU, no FOM, own Trade Agreements
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    Maybe we should just invade and conquer Eire. That would solve the EU's apparent difficulties and even with our much diminished forces probably wouldn't take more than a few days.

    Or maybe we can finally agree that trying to resolve the status of the Irish border separately from our relationship with the EU generally is simply nuts and that the EU position is completely barking.
    If we have a FTA with the EU what problem exists on the EIre border that does not exist right now and which both sides are quite happy to ignore? The only thing I can think of is third party imports into Eire or the UK. Surely that is just paperwork? And once again exactly the same issue we need to resolve with the rest of the EU?

    Remember that once we leave the EU Ireland is a more powerful state than the UK. It will be more likely for them to invade and conquer us.
    If Hitler and Napoleon and Philip II could not conquer us I doubt Leo Varadkar will

    Who is our Churchill today? Who is our Wellington today?
    The Gallipolli disaster was Churchill's baby.

    The Duke of Wellington opposed giving the People the vote and a say in our national affairs. Today's Duke of Wellington was every Remoaner.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    stevef said:

    What a collossal cheek by the Tories biggest general election loser.

    There he is:John Major, looking more like his Spitting Image puppet than ever, the man who lost the general election of 1997 by a bigger margin than any prime minister since the Duke of Wellington; the man whose big idea in 7 years in power was the "cones hotline"

    The man who presided over the economic chaos of Black Wednesday, who presided over the biggest rise in interest rates in a single day since records began.

    The prime minister who was mocked by cartoonists for wearing his underpants outside his trousers.

    Has the temerity to stand in front of the cameras this afternoon and tell the British People, in alliance with his nemesis, Tony Blair, that the British Establishment will not accept the biggest vote for change in British political history in the 2016 referendum, that they must think again, that the unelected House of Lords should overrule a democratic vote by the people.

    And to present that arrogance as a matter of conscience.

    Major and Blair, the Laurel and Hardy of British politics who think they know better than the People.

    Hold on, so no to Jezza, no to Blair...who would you have lead the Labour Party?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    RobD said:

    FF43 said:

    currystar said:

    John Major is making a fool of himself. I voted remain but leave won therefore we must leave. Democracy must be obeyed.

    Leave to what? I think that's Sir John's point. We are certainly not leaving to what was promised by those promoting Leave.
    Are we not? The current plan involves the ending freedom of movement, leaving the single market and no longer paying the EU however many million a week.
    That's not a plan, Rob.
    I think it's fair to say the government are planning to leave the Single Market and to end EU budget contributions (for the most part).
  • RobD said:

    Reading Major's speech, and the Twitter feed of such as Anna Soubry, it strikes me that - however numerous her failings - May is the only thing holding the Conservatives together. When she goes, the party splits.

    The splits have always been there, the shoe is now just on the other foot, as it were.
    They have. But generally the Conservatives have had consensual leaders who have managed to paper over the splits. (Thatcher is the only significant counter-example; she and her acolytes were astonishingly good at party management, but even then there were enough high-profile flounces.)

    There is no sign of a consensual leader in the wings. Right now, May is the best they've got. Once she's gone, the already fragile consensus within the party breaks down.
    Hunt would be the new consensual leader,
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,073

    Leavers mobilising for a Two Minutes Hate is always a wondrous sight to behold, like the murmuration of starlings or the migrations of wildebeest across the savannah.

    Yes, the PB League of Empire Loyalists are out in force today:
    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    Maybe we should just invade and conquer Eire. That would solve the EU's apparent difficulties and even with our much diminished forces probably wouldn't take more than a few days.

    Or maybe we can finally agree that trying to resolve the status of the Irish border separately from our relationship with the EU generally is simply nuts and that the EU position is completely barking.
    If we have a FTA with the EU what problem exists on the EIre border that does not exist right now and which both sides are quite happy to ignore? The only thing I can think of is third party imports into Eire or the UK. Surely that is just paperwork? And once again exactly the same issue we need to resolve with the rest of the EU?

    Remember that once we leave the EU Ireland is a more powerful state than the UK. It will be more likely for them to invade and conquer us.
    If Hitler and Napoleon and Philip II could not conquer us I doubt Leo Varadkar will
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/968860783219273728

    https://twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/968861449312448512

    Cue moaning that the EU has failed to guarantee UK citizen rights...... *crickets*
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,587
    currystar said:

    John Major is making a fool of himself. I voted remain but leave won therefore we must leave. Democracy must be obeyed.

    No he is not!

    One of my least favourite former PMs, but this guy has turned into a genius elder statesman!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774
    currystar said:

    tpfkar said:

    currystar said:

    John Major is making a fool of himself. I voted remain but leave won therefore we must leave. Democracy must be obeyed.

    That was my view for a while - but I then realised quite how little plan the Leavers had, and how many of the promises were false, and that the vote was won on a flawed prospectus a la PPI.

    Would there be any point, any cost, where you would think again whether the country should go through with it?
    No one has any idea what will happen when we leave. According to the remain side we should be in a deep recession now. It was the terrible campaign of potential armaggedon by the remain side which led to leave winning. Lies were equal on both sides. Forecasts are always wrong. The country voted leave, thats it. Churchill won the war then lost the election. Democracy can be mad sometimes but it must be obeyed.
    The most partisan elements on each side have always wildly overstated their case.
  • stevef said:

    tpfkar said:

    currystar said:

    John Major is making a fool of himself. I voted remain but leave won therefore we must leave. Democracy must be obeyed.

    That was my view for a while - but I then realised quite how little plan the Leavers had, and how many of the promises were false, and that the vote was won on a flawed prospectus a la PPI.

    Would there be any point, any cost, where you would think again whether the country should go through with it?
    I'm not in favour of a second referendum because there is no particular evidence that the unfolding events have significantly influenced the public. It's been a shitshow but it seems that most voters had priced that in before their vote.
    Because you would lose it.
    No, I've given my reason. I would support a second (strictly speaking, third) referendum if it looked as though the public had substantially changed its mind. There is no evidence of this.

    A fresh referendum at present might very well produce a 52:48 Remain outcome. That would not lead to a more united country.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,545
    currystar said:

    tpfkar said:

    currystar said:

    John Major is making a fool of himself. I voted remain but leave won therefore we must leave. Democracy must be obeyed.

    That was my view for a while - but I then realised quite how little plan the Leavers had, and how many of the promises were false, and that the vote was won on a flawed prospectus a la PPI.

    Would there be any point, any cost, where you would think again whether the country should go through with it?
    No one has any idea what will happen when we leave. According to the remain side we should be in a deep recession now. It was the terrible campaign of potential armaggedon by the remain side which led to leave winning. Lies were equal on both sides. Forecasts are always wrong. The country voted leave, thats it. Churchill won the war then lost the election. Democracy can be mad sometimes but it must be obeyed.
    I agree with you on the campaign. Unicorn bullsh*t beat Terror bullsh*t. Were £350m a week for the NHS to be generated from leaving the EU, I would agree with you that we must follow through. That is what the vote was won on, and the standard the outcome should be held to. Otherwise we risk acting as blindly as the Rees-Mogg crew who aren't interested in any barriers, pain or loss on the way to the true goal. And I still think we are better than that as a country.

    philipH - no way to such a polarising 2nd ref. All that would do would be to antagonise the country at a time when all efforts should be going into healing it. Not for me thanks!


  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    currystar said:

    tpfkar said:

    currystar said:

    John Major is making a fool of himself. I voted remain but leave won therefore we must leave. Democracy must be obeyed.

    That was my view for a while - but I then realised quite how little plan the Leavers had, and how many of the promises were false, and that the vote was won on a flawed prospectus a la PPI.

    Would there be any point, any cost, where you would think again whether the country should go through with it?
    No one has any idea what will happen when we leave. According to the remain side we should be in a deep recession now. It was the terrible campaign of potential armaggedon by the remain side which led to leave winning. Lies were equal on both sides. Forecasts are always wrong. The country voted leave, thats it. Churchill won the war then lost the election. Democracy can be mad sometimes but it must be obeyed.
    + 100
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    Maybe we should just invade and conquer Eire. That would solve the EU's apparent difficulties and even with our much diminished forces probably wouldn't take more than a few days.

    Or maybe we can finally agree that trying to resolve the status of the Irish border separately from our relationship with the EU generally is simply nuts and that the EU position is completely barking.
    If we have a FTA with the EU what problem exists on the EIre border that does not exist right now and which both sides are quite happy to ignore? The only thing I can think of is third party imports into Eire or the UK. Surely that is just paperwork? And once again exactly the same issue we need to resolve with the rest of the EU?

    Remember that once we leave the EU Ireland is a more powerful state than the UK. It will be more likely for them to invade and conquer us.
    If Hitler and Napoleon and Philip II could not conquer us I doubt Leo Varadkar will

    Who is our Churchill today? Who is our Wellington today?
    I think Captain Mainwaring would probably be enough to handle Eire.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,073
    Scott_P said:
    Surely the EU can only request that EU states reciprocate. Residency rights of 3rd party states are a national competence, not an EU one. We surely would not want the EU to trample over other countries sovereignty, would we?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Foxy said:

    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/968860783219273728

    twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/968861449312448512

    Surely the EU can only request that EU states reciprocate. Residency rights of 3rd party states are a national competence, not an EU one. We surely would not want the EU to trample over other countries sovereignty, would we?
    Don't worry, they are getting used to it.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774
    edited February 2018
    Foxy said:

    stevef said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    Plans to shaft Northern Ireland by Boris does make that DUP bet look interesting.

    Boris' new support for a limited hard border between NI and the Republic would be fine by the DUP

    The shift in the brexiteer/neobrexiteer position over the past 18 months is illustrative of their complete lack of pragmatism, wit and imagination.

    Only a fool would leave the single market
    We will leave the single market
    Only a fool would risk the peace process by establishing a hard Irish border
    We will establish a 'limited' hard Irish border

    Next up: we will establish a hard Irish border and crash out on WTO terms.

    Anything – anything – to preserve PURITY!!!
    Well given the EU is making it almost impossible to do anything else and deliver full Brexit that may well end up the case
    Just maybe we WILL crash out, and the resulting economic chaos is so bad that the Tories struggle to hold Maidenhead and Witham and we crawl back into the EU. And into the Euro and Schengen.
    Hope it’s nowhere near as bad as that but the incompetence currently being displayed by the Government and to a lesser extent the Opposition suggests the possibility.
    Most Leave voters did so to end free movement and regain sovereignty, exactly what the EU is frustrating the government from doing and of course 2/3 of constituencies voted Leave.

    Had the Euro and Schengen been on the cards it would have been 90% of constituencies voting Leave
    I’m looking to the future, not the past.
    It will be almost 40 years before all the over 45s have disappeared from the electorate
    Won there be new over 45s?
    I think the evidence is that cultural attitudes do not change with age the way that political allegiences have in the past.

    Time will tell of course.
    Peoples' attitudes towards sexual morality don't seem to change as they get older. OTOH, peoples' attitudes towards both the EU and immigration do seem to.

    In 1975, 61% of 18-29 year olds backed Remain. 41 years on, about 36% of the same voters, now aged 59-70, did so.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,722
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    Maybe we should just invade and conquer Eire. That would solve the EU's apparent difficulties and even with our much diminished forces probably wouldn't take more than a few days.

    Or maybe we can finally agree that trying to resolve the status of the Irish border separately from our relationship with the EU generally is simply nuts and that the EU position is completely barking.
    If we have a FTA with the EU what problem exists on the EIre border that does not exist right now and which both sides are quite happy to ignore? The only thing I can think of is third party imports into Eire or the UK. Surely that is just paperwork? And once again exactly the same issue we need to resolve with the rest of the EU?

    Remember that once we leave the EU Ireland is a more powerful state than the UK. It will be more likely for them to invade and conquer us.
    If Hitler and Napoleon and Philip II could not conquer us I doubt Leo Varadkar will

    Who is our Churchill today? Who is our Wellington today?
    I think Captain Mainwaring would probably be enough to handle Eire.
    I suspect we’ve got a few RoI citizens oin our armed forces.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    stevef said:

    What a collossal cheek by the Tories biggest general election loser.

    There he is:John Major, looking more like his Spitting Image puppet than ever, the man who lost the general election of 1997 by a bigger margin than any prime minister since the Duke of Wellington; the man whose big idea in 7 years in power was the "cones hotline"

    The man who presided over the economic chaos of Black Wednesday, who presided over the biggest rise in interest rates in a single day since records began.

    The prime minister who was mocked by cartoonists for wearing his underpants outside his trousers.

    Has the temerity to stand in front of the cameras this afternoon and tell the British People, in alliance with his nemesis, Tony Blair, that the British Establishment will not accept the biggest vote for change in British political history in the 2016 referendum, that they must think again, that the unelected House of Lords should overrule a democratic vote by the people.

    And to present that arrogance as a matter of conscience.

    Major and Blair, the Laurel and Hardy of British politics who think they know better than the People.

    Major was also the only Tory leader to win a 4th consecutive general election for his party in the last 100 years. They need to repeat his feat in 1992 to keep Corbyn out next time
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,587
    stevef said:

    What a collossal cheek by the Tories biggest general election loser.

    There he is:John Major, looking more like his Spitting Image puppet than ever, the man who lost the general election of 1997 by a bigger margin than any prime minister since the Duke of Wellington; the man whose big idea in 7 years in power was the "cones hotline"

    The man who presided over the economic chaos of Black Wednesday, who presided over the biggest rise in interest rates in a single day since records began.

    The prime minister who was mocked by cartoonists for wearing his underpants outside his trousers.

    Has the temerity to stand in front of the cameras this afternoon and tell the British People, in alliance with his nemesis, Tony Blair, that the British Establishment will not accept the biggest vote for change in British political history in the 2016 referendum, that they must think again, that the unelected House of Lords should overrule a democratic vote by the people.

    And to present that arrogance as a matter of conscience.

    Major and Blair, the Laurel and Hardy of British politics who think they know better than the People.

    No, he didn't actually wear his underpants outside his trousers. Steve Bell made that up!Seems obvious really but apparently not to you!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,722
    edited February 2018

    stevef said:

    What a collossal cheek by the Tories biggest general election loser.

    There he is:John Major, looking more like his Spitting Image puppet than ever, the man who lost the general election of 1997 by a bigger margin than any prime minister since the Duke of Wellington; the man whose big idea in 7 years in power was the "cones hotline"

    The man who presided over the economic chaos of Black Wednesday, who presided over the biggest rise in interest rates in a single day since records began.

    The prime minister who was mocked by cartoonists for wearing his underpants outside his trousers.

    Has the temerity to stand in front of the cameras this afternoon and tell the British People, in alliance with his nemesis, Tony Blair, that the British Establishment will not accept the biggest vote for change in British political history in the 2016 referendum, that they must think again, that the unelected House of Lords should overrule a democratic vote by the people.

    And to present that arrogance as a matter of conscience.

    Major and Blair, the Laurel and Hardy of British politics who think they know better than the People.

    No, he didn't actually wear his underpants outside his trousers. Steve Bell made that up!Seems obvious really but apparently not to you!
    IIRC Edwina Currie said he tucked his shirt into his underpants. That’s what gave rise to it.

    He wasn’t the best PM, for sure, but when his time was up he vacated the scene like a gentleman and he’s generally kept his head since.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774
    Scott_P said:

    So, JM says the bastards are back and running roughshod over the PM, Parliament, and the British public...

    And he's right!

    I don't think that Theresa May is actually pursuing the type of Brexit that the ERG wants.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    tpfkar said:

    currystar said:

    tpfkar said:

    currystar said:

    John Major is making a fool of himself. I voted remain but leave won therefore we must leave. Democracy must be obeyed.

    That was my view for a while - but I then realised quite how little plan the Leavers had, and how many of the promises were false, and that the vote was won on a flawed prospectus a la PPI.

    Would there be any point, any cost, where you would think again whether the country should go through with it?
    No one has any idea what will happen when we leave. According to the remain side we should be in a deep recession now. It was the terrible campaign of potential armaggedon by the remain side which led to leave winning. Lies were equal on both sides. Forecasts are always wrong. The country voted leave, thats it. Churchill won the war then lost the election. Democracy can be mad sometimes but it must be obeyed.
    I agree with you on the campaign. Unicorn bullsh*t beat Terror bullsh*t. Were £350m a week for the NHS to be generated from leaving the EU, I would agree with you that we must follow through. That is what the vote was won on, and the standard the outcome should be held to. Otherwise we risk acting as blindly as the Rees-Mogg crew who aren't interested in any barriers, pain or loss on the way to the true goal. And I still think we are better than that as a country.

    philipH - no way to such a polarising 2nd ref. All that would do would be to antagonise the country at a time when all efforts should be going into healing it. Not for me thanks!


    So no 2nd referendum for you then, I assume, as any 2nd referendum will be polarising.

    That is in fact quite a good argument for no 2nd referendum
  • See, I’m not alone in the Tory party, we should give away Northern Ireland, it is more hassle than it is worth.

    At the very least, 81 percent of Leave voters felt the risk of the Irish peace process ‘unravelling’ was ‘worth it’ if this was the price of ‘taking back control’. Conservative Leave voters – supporters of what still purports to be a Unionist party – were even more vehement on this question: 87 percent felt it a risk worth taking.

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/02/brexiteers-you-were-warned-about-ireland/
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545
    edited February 2018
    currystar said:

    The country voted leave, thats it. Churchill won the war then lost the election. Democracy can be mad sometimes but it must be obeyed.

    I agree with that. As far as I can tell John Major also agrees. But it doesn't help much beyond removing the possibility of ignoring the whole thing. For instance, are we all happy with signing up to the Withdrawal Agreement that the EU has drafted today? Are we OK with outcomes that could decimate our car industry? In each case those are leave options. They would be respecting democracy.. But is it what we want?

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Sean_F said:

    I don't think that Theresa May is actually pursuing the type of Brexit that the ERG wants.

    They think she is.

    Only reason she is still in post
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Scott_P said:
    Seen the writer and didn't bother -Alex massie.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774
    Scott_P said:

    Sean_F said:

    I don't think that Theresa May is actually pursuing the type of Brexit that the ERG wants.

    They think she is.

    Only reason she is still in post
    They have the numbers to force a vote of No Confidence, but not the numbers to oust her.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,587

    stevef said:

    What a collossal cheek by the Tories biggest general election loser.

    There he is:John Major, looking more like his Spitting Image puppet than ever, the man who lost the general election of 1997 by a bigger margin than any prime minister since the Duke of Wellington; the man whose big idea in 7 years in power was the "cones hotline"

    The man who presided over the economic chaos of Black Wednesday, who presided over the biggest rise in interest rates in a single day since records began.

    The prime minister who was mocked by cartoonists for wearing his underpants outside his trousers.

    Has the temerity to stand in front of the cameras this afternoon and tell the British People, in alliance with his nemesis, Tony Blair, that the British Establishment will not accept the biggest vote for change in British political history in the 2016 referendum, that they must think again, that the unelected House of Lords should overrule a democratic vote by the people.

    And to present that arrogance as a matter of conscience.

    Major and Blair, the Laurel and Hardy of British politics who think they know better than the People.

    No, he didn't actually wear his underpants outside his trousers. Steve Bell made that up!Seems obvious really but apparently not to you!
    IIRC Edwina Currie said he tucked his shirt into his underpants. That’s what gace rise to it.

    He wasn’t the best PM, for sure, but when his time was up he vacated the scene like a gentleman and he’s generally kept his head since.
    Still Steve Bell's imagination as opposed to Stevef's reality.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,774

    See, I’m not alone in the Tory party, we should give away Northern Ireland, it is more hassle than it is worth.

    At the very least, 81 percent of Leave voters felt the risk of the Irish peace process ‘unravelling’ was ‘worth it’ if this was the price of ‘taking back control’. Conservative Leave voters – supporters of what still purports to be a Unionist party – were even more vehement on this question: 87 percent felt it a risk worth taking.

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/02/brexiteers-you-were-warned-about-ireland/

    Quite independently of Brexit, there are a lot of Conservatives who have become very discontented with the outworking of the GFA, largely in relation to the hounding of members of the security forces.
This discussion has been closed.