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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If there is a second referendum Remain should demand that all voters show visual ID
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Can't be sure but I would like to think that enough people will kick up a fuss about it, as much as partisan advantage comes into play surely at least a few Tory MPs wouldn't be happy to disenfranchise such a large section of the electorate... at least enough to defeat any motion... I hope.
http://www.corriere.it/elezioni-2018/risultati-politiche/senato.shtml
I guess we now wait for everyone to throw away their manifesto and stitch up a government among themselves, as usually happens with proportional voting systems that don’t deliver a clear verdict.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2016/09/26/trumps-advisers-claim-vat-is-a-trade-barrier-subsidy-flat-out-untrue-simply-wrong/#50458d96602a
There are no right answers in the world of politics -– but whether we’re drunk or just pressed for time, the less we think, the further to the right our answers lean.
https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg23631560-800-effortless-thinking-why-were-all-born-to-be-status-quo-fans/
Voter registration and postal voting are more likely to be areas where fraud can occur, hence the re-registration of everyone and the change to individual registration a few years ago. Postal voting is still too open though, and I say that as someone who’s abroad most of the time. Postal votes should be applied for each election, and methods to increase in-person turnout trialled, such as early voting the weekend before the election, or moving polling day for a general election to Friday and declaring it a public holiday.
The problem with any changes to the voting system though, is that most people making the arguments for change are doing it for nakedly partisan reasons, so any proposals need a proper academic study and the impartial Electoral Commission should present their findings.
The other problem is that all EU leaders wanted a deal between the centre-left and the most reasonable part of the right (PD, Forza Italia, +Europa, Noi con Italia) and they won't get nearly enough seats.
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/04/trump-navarro-trade-tariffs-exemptions-434909
The VAT thing from his advisers actually shocked me. I'm not saying a trade war is overwhelmingly likely, but this could get of out control quite easily.
USA: not so strong currency, more free market, plenty of tariffs on goods from EU and China
Which one has the big trade surplus, and which one the big deficit?
A country's trade deficit (or surplus) is a consequence of its savings rate, not its tariff schedule.
Very telling, Mr Smithson, very telling.
And rather saddening
You should be ashamed of yourself
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/04/post-brexit-deal-eu-to-keep-draft-guidelines-short-and-general
The Tories did their best to kick young people off the register, as described by @DecrepidJohnL, and Labour took away the votes of people who lived outside the UK for more than 15 years, who were assumed to go disproportionately Tory.
http://www.liberation.fr/planete/2018/03/04/martin-selmayr-braque-la-commission-europeenne_1633807?utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#link_time=1520193810
Selmayr veut imposer le Français Michel Barnier- dont il a fait le négociateur du Brexit -, comme tête de liste du PPE, ce qui lui garantira la présidence de la Commission, les conservateurs ayant toutes les chances d’arriver en tête aux élections de 2019. Pour lui, Barnier est le candidat idéal, car il est «Macron-compatible», mais aussi parce qu’il le considère comme faible et malléable.
https://tinyurl.com/selmayrgate
Edit - I'm astonished this hasn't had more coverage in the UK - its got 'classic Brussels scandal' written all over it with a cast list bursting with stock villains....
You are already on the wrong side of which type of Brexit we sign up to. By voting not to have any.
Cake and eat it, Remainers?
And if he does actually do something- it will become obvious fairly quickly that it's a bad idea.
He might even unite Republicans and Democrats in Congress on something!
Must explain why Ted Heath lost.....
1. Burnley FC win the Champions League
2. All male voters to remove their toupee at the polling station.
3. Bedford voters to consume a pineapple pizza at the polling station.
4. LibDem party members to kiss a portrait of Nigel Farage
5. Vince Cable to personally place a "winning here" placard on the moon
6. All voters to abjure the bar charts and sandals
I think a soft Brexit is remainers best chance, wouldn't completely rule out a referendum but something needs to happen to get us there... something more than just Corbyn deciding it but a shift in public opinion for some reason.
But fixing the system to favour one side (on which Remain have form - such as the tax payer funded advert that the government sent to every house) is simply wrong. Almost as bad as politicians giving away powers to a third party when they no right to do so.
Well done though, Jet-ski Guy.
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/03/05/entertainment/jet-ski-winner-oscars-mark-bridges/index.html
So, the way it would have to work is for Lega Nord to ditch their pre-election partners, Forza Italia, and embrace M5S. Which would - of course - be a massive scandal, as many of those FPTP seats were only delivered to Lega Nord by dint of their Forza Italia coalition.
All this being said, Italy has never been bettered governed than when it hasn't had a government, so this could be a blessing in disguise for them.
https://twitter.com/emporersnewc/status/970341839948697600?s=21
Still can't see it.
We’d get the result a lot earlier too.
https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/970558009238872064?s=20
Guardian usually very hot on malfeasance in high places and possible corruption....funny that....
If it sticks to EU mainstream policy it could boost even more the M5S and Lega.
The only good news from these results is that Berlusconi might finally retire.
I can’t think of a single Brexit claim that has turned out to be true. Not one.
But then I remember - cometh the hour, cometh the Italian prosecco makers. They’ll see us right!
Mrs. DA just asked me to peel some potatoes. I told her I was executing 'ambitious managed divergence' from her meal plan but it didn't work.
It is only the claims for the immediate effects of the vote that are empirically verifiable
Oh........
https://www.thelocal.it/
The impression that all Remain had was project fear, a frequent claim Leave made during the ref., is a huge plus for Leave.
Another referendum now (not that there would be one) would be done on the backdrop of knowing that voting to Leave will not crash the economy or house prices.
Within that Forza Italia has not had a good night, they got beaten quite badly by Lega. Salvini has one hand on the premiership.
Finally, Salvini's fear that Berlusconi would go into coalition with PD after the election will come to naught since even with FI plus the centre left, there's no majority.
Like Germany, Italy has become ungovernable without including the populist upstart(s).
Overall it's probably the messiest election that Europe has seen for a while.
It seems to me that there are 2 scenarios here. The first is that Italy will simply fail to have an operating government for the remainder of the Brexit process and will play no effective part.
The alternative is that they get a Eurosceptic government who will disrupt the EU27 line somewhat. Whether that will be an advantage or disadvantage probably depends on how close we are to getting the sort of deal that May set out on Friday.
The former seems the most likely (and probably the safest for us).
You only missed out "And Brussels is going "oh bugger...."
That looks pretty much spot on from where I am.
As far as the EU goes, it's not a good night when the two out and out pro EU parties have scored 21% between them (PD and +E). Every other party has various levels scepiticsm, none are what we would think of as pro-EU.
Personification on any widespread scale would never succeed because it will become obvious - too many stories will come out of people complaining that they haven't been able to vote because somebody has already voted in their place.
The centre-left is the biggest loser. It lost more than 6 points compared to 2013. It's even worse compared to the last European elections (-17 points) and considering that since 2013 the pro-Europe centrist coalition of Monti (more than 10% in 2013) has disappeared.
It only stays strong in some urban areas and in the traditional red provinces (Toscana, Marche, Umbria).
Renzi's career seems finished and Gentiloni's hope to stay on seems doomed by the terrible PD score.
The centre-right did much better than in 2013, with a gain of 8 points. However the internal balance of the coalition has totally changed: the Lega was almost dead in 2013 with 4% but is now the third largest single party in the country with 18%. Neo-fascist Fratelli d'Italia doubled its score from 2 to 4%. Opposingly, Berlusconi's Forza Italia lost 8 points.
In terms of geography the League swept the North as expected but did actually quite well even in Central Italy.
The problem for the coalition is that Berlusconi's party was not able to be competitive against the M5S in the South, as the left collapsed.
The M5S progressed a bit less (+6.5 points) but is now by far the biggest single party, built on a vgood performance in the North and Centre (20/25%) and a landslide in the South.
One point of interest to me is that the extremely high scores of M5S in Napoli, Sicily and Calabria seem to indicate that traditional local powers have assented to their victory. It will be interesting to see how their inexeperienced MPs resist (or not) the inevitable pressures of organized crime.
It's just wall-to-wall luvvie Oscars sanctimony.
My view is that voters take politicians’ words as one input but cast their vote based on a range of inputs, many of which are intuitive.
You can’t say “X lied. Therefore the result is invalid”. Because you can’t prove that X impacted the outcome
What about a Five Star minority administration propped up by PD?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-43272700
As I said, it’s really important that any process that leads to a change in rules is seen to be impartial, ask Nick Clegg what happens if you’re seen to be trying to change the system for nakedly partisan reasons.
Granting effective right to remain in Europe as soon as a toe touches European soil is the root of the problem.
The new Italian government should encourage them to onward transit to Germany. And every one of the other EU countries should say that is as far as they go in the EU. Problem belong Merkel.
Italy election: Populist surge prompts political deadlock - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-43272700
Their only hope now seems to become a strong opposition to whatever government comes up, and especially to M5S. However their last minute scare campaign against a M5S/Lega givernment did not work this time.