Matt D'Ancona nails it with the current outbreak of peace within the Tory party - they've finally realized Jezza's Labour is a serious and dangerous threat and have belatedly decided to show a united front.
Latest report on Italy says that the result will mean the next government will be very anti the EU and will cause big problems for Brussels.
Also neither the BBC or Guardian are making much of an effort to report the results but that is maybe not unsurprising.as it does not chime with their EU agenda
Italy has always punched under its weight in EU circles, despite being a founding member. So even if the government is anti-EU, I'm not at all sure whether that will mean anything in practice.
A bombshell study has found that few voters believe the Conservative Party’s key election claim that its councils cost less for quality local services.
Only three in 10 voters across London see the Conservatives as the party of low council tax and a meagre 18 per cent in Tory-run boroughs think it delivers on its boast of lower bills and better services.
The report, by ex-Conservative treasurer Lord Ashcroft, comes before the May 3 elections in London, where the Conservatives are fighting to avoid the loss of flagships such as Wandsworth, Barnet and Westminster.
It found that many Londoners plan to use their votes to punish Theresa May and the national government for Brexit and spending cuts.
Few appeared nervous of Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn’s Left-wing supporters taking over councils. In Tory-run boroughs only a third of voters associated the party with either better services or lower council tax.
Given 20 out of 32 London boroughs are Labour held and only 9 Tory held few Londoners have much experience of Tory run boroughs anyway.
Crucially 32% of voters in Tory boroughs think they are well run and only 25% badly run, that is significantly better than the 29% in Labour boroughs who think they are well run with 28% believing them badly run
On topic, May has telegraphed in a fairly transparent way that a second referendum is coming, firstly with her five tests, but also with her answer that "no British Prime Minister" could sign the withdrawal agreement.
A bombshell study has found that few voters believe the Conservative Party’s key election claim that its councils cost less for quality local services.
Only three in 10 voters across London see the Conservatives as the party of low council tax and a meagre 18 per cent in Tory-run boroughs think it delivers on its boast of lower bills and better services.
The report, by ex-Conservative treasurer Lord Ashcroft, comes before the May 3 elections in London, where the Conservatives are fighting to avoid the loss of flagships such as Wandsworth, Barnet and Westminster.
It found that many Londoners plan to use their votes to punish Theresa May and the national government for Brexit and spending cuts.
Few appeared nervous of Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn’s Left-wing supporters taking over councils. In Tory-run boroughs only a third of voters associated the party with either better services or lower council tax.
Council tax in Coventry went up 4.9% with the Labour administered council this year. So I asked my Dad what it would have gone up if the Tories were in charge. The alternative budget had a 4.9% increase too
That's because councils are limited to 5%. Maybe Theresa May should remove that ceiling, which may be seen by voters as making it safe to vote Labour in local elections.
A bombshell study has found that few voters believe the Conservative Party’s key election claim that its councils cost less for quality local services.
Only three in 10 voters across London see the Conservatives as the party of low council tax and a meagre 18 per cent in Tory-run boroughs think it delivers on its boast of lower bills and better services.
The report, by ex-Conservative treasurer Lord Ashcroft, comes before the May 3 elections in London, where the Conservatives are fighting to avoid the loss of flagships such as Wandsworth, Barnet and Westminster.
It found that many Londoners plan to use their votes to punish Theresa May and the national government for Brexit and spending cuts.
Few appeared nervous of Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn’s Left-wing supporters taking over councils. In Tory-run boroughs only a third of voters associated the party with either better services or lower council tax.
A bombshell study has found that few voters believe the Conservative Party’s key election claim that its councils cost less for quality local services.
Only three in 10 voters across London see the Conservatives as the party of low council tax and a meagre 18 per cent in Tory-run boroughs think it delivers on its boast of lower bills and better services.
The report, by ex-Conservative treasurer Lord Ashcroft, comes before the May 3 elections in London, where the Conservatives are fighting to avoid the loss of flagships such as Wandsworth, Barnet and Westminster.
It found that many Londoners plan to use their votes to punish Theresa May and the national government for Brexit and spending cuts.
Few appeared nervous of Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn’s Left-wing supporters taking over councils. In Tory-run boroughs only a third of voters associated the party with either better services or lower council tax.
Council tax in Coventry went up 4.9% with the Labour administered council this year. So I asked my Dad what it would have gone up if the Tories were in charge. The alternative budget had a 4.9% increase too
That's because councils are limited to 5%. Maybe Theresa May should remove that ceiling, which may be seen by voters as making it safe to vote Labour in local elections.
On topic, May has telegraphed in a fairly transparent way that a second referendum is coming, firstly with her five tests, but also with her answer that "no British Prime Minister" could sign the withdrawal agreement.
A bombshell study has found that few voters believe the Conservative Party’s key election claim that its councils cost less for quality local services.
Only three in 10 voters across London see the Conservatives as the party of low council tax and a meagre 18 per cent in Tory-run boroughs think it delivers on its boast of lower bills and better services.
The report, by ex-Conservative treasurer Lord Ashcroft, comes before the May 3 elections in London, where the Conservatives are fighting to avoid the loss of flagships such as Wandsworth, Barnet and Westminster.
It found that many Londoners plan to use their votes to punish Theresa May and the national government for Brexit and spending cuts.
Few appeared nervous of Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn’s Left-wing supporters taking over councils. In Tory-run boroughs only a third of voters associated the party with either better services or lower council tax.
Council tax in Coventry went up 4.9% with the Labour administered council this year. So I asked my Dad what it would have gone up if the Tories were in charge. The alternative budget had a 4.9% increase too
That's because councils are limited to 5%. Maybe Theresa May should remove that ceiling, which may be seen by voters as making it safe to vote Labour in local elections.
Are you mad Richard ?!
Do you really want to pay more council tax ?
Good point, she should keep the ceiling for Conservative councils, then everyone's happy.
On topic, May has telegraphed in a fairly transparent way that a second referendum is coming, firstly with her five tests, but also with her answer that "no British Prime Minister" could sign the withdrawal agreement.
I agree with you, but the problem with the honest assessment of the EU is that inevitably the answer is "it's shit, but..." you can't run a campaign based on that.
I don't think it's shit - just has major problems.
I remember OGH saying he thought whichever side Cameron (then a trusted politician) backed would win. Well Cameron destroyed his trustworthiness in record speed by
a) suggesting that he was considering leaving b) pretending he had negotiated something big with Brussels c) then turning round and saying the EU was wonderful and the sky would fall in if we left
I'm unconvinced that the Cameron/Osborne strategy in the referendum was much good. Maybe the result would have different if they'd fronted a more honest campaign.
It would have been even worse for remain. Running a pro-EU campaign would have been a disaster when the sentence started with "it's shit, but..." and I use that because in a campaign there's no real way to make the argument in less than 10 words.
It's like saying, this club has loads of faults but we should stay in because it's awesome. The remain campaign was coherent in a sense because it made the argument that "yes we think the EU is shit, but we think leave will be the end of days" and ran the campaign on the basis of relative good.
Corbyn may have been brutally honest with his 7/10 comment, but it was probably much less helpful than you think.
Miss Cyclefree, is Italy a net contributor? I'd guess so, but we tend not to hear about it.
No idea. Not that I'd trust any figures coming out of the Italian Treasury, frankly.
Italy takes a much less transactional view of the relationship than Britain. Their own political structures and politicians are so shit that the EU has always been seen as a vast improvement. And given what came before the EU in Italy, who can blame them for taking that view.
Plus it allows Italian politicians more money from the EU for their favoured clients. So a win-win all round.
Italy's relative disillusionment now is because of its economic problems, on which Mr Smithson Jr has opined elegantly below, and the migration issue which has hit Italy - a largely homogenous society less enamoured of the bad side of multiculturalism (and which has not suffered the sort of terrorism or integration issues other countries have had) - hard.
On topic, May has telegraphed in a fairly transparent way that a second referendum is coming, firstly with her five tests, but also with her answer that "no British Prime Minister" could sign the withdrawal agreement.
Levi jeans and bourbon could be hit with a 25% import tax by the European Union if President Donald Trump imposes tariffs on European steel and aluminium.
On topic, May has telegraphed in a fairly transparent way that a second referendum is coming, firstly with her five tests, but also with her answer that "no British Prime Minister" could sign the withdrawal agreement.
A bombshell study has found that few voters believe the Conservative Party’s key election claim that its councils cost less for quality local services.
Only three in 10 voters across London see the Conservatives as the party of low council tax and a meagre 18 per cent in Tory-run boroughs think it delivers on its boast of lower bills and better services.
The report, by ex-Conservative treasurer Lord Ashcroft, comes before the May 3 elections in London, where the Conservatives are fighting to avoid the loss of flagships such as Wandsworth, Barnet and Westminster.
It found that many Londoners plan to use their votes to punish Theresa May and the national government for Brexit and spending cuts.
Few appeared nervous of Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn’s Left-wing supporters taking over councils. In Tory-run boroughs only a third of voters associated the party with either better services or lower council tax.
Council tax in Coventry went up 4.9% with the Labour administered council this year. So I asked my Dad what it would have gone up if the Tories were in charge. The alternative budget had a 4.9% increase too
That's because councils are limited to 5%. Maybe Theresa May should remove that ceiling, which may be seen by voters as making it safe to vote Labour in local elections.
Are you mad Richard ?!
Do you really want to pay more council tax ?
Good point, she should keep the ceiling for Conservative councils, then everyone's happy.
I'll launch an independence for Oldcotes campaign if that happens
A bombshell study has found that few voters believe the Conservative Party’s key election claim that its councils cost less for quality local services.
Only three in 10 voters across London see the Conservatives as the party of low council tax and a meagre 18 per cent in Tory-run boroughs think it delivers on its boast of lower bills and better services.
The report, by ex-Conservative treasurer Lord Ashcroft, comes before the May 3 elections in London, where the Conservatives are fighting to avoid the loss of flagships such as Wandsworth, Barnet and Westminster.
It found that many Londoners plan to use their votes to punish Theresa May and the national government for Brexit and spending cuts.
Few appeared nervous of Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn’s Left-wing supporters taking over councils. In Tory-run boroughs only a third of voters associated the party with either better services or lower council tax.
Council tax in Coventry went up 4.9% with the Labour administered council this year. So I asked my Dad what it would have gone up if the Tories were in charge. The alternative budget had a 4.9% increase too
That's because councils are limited to 5%. Maybe Theresa May should remove that ceiling, which may be seen by voters as making it safe to vote Labour in local elections.
Are you mad Richard ?!
Do you really want to pay more council tax ?
If he doesn't pay more council tax he will pay more in other taxes - or suffer ever declining services.
On topic, May has telegraphed in a fairly transparent way that a second referendum is coming, firstly with her five tests, but also with her answer that "no British Prime Minister" could sign the withdrawal agreement.
Doesn’t look good for anyone. The Septics included.
Weirdly enough I've worked out this tariff should benefit our company in the short term, any exporter to the US that uses steel products as part of manufacture will be in the same boat.
Completely off topic: I assume that Hollywood stars have money and stylist and their pick of gowns. And yet they dress SO badly - utter eyesores most of them. No elegance or style. They may as well have walked naked with their body covered in glue into a cupboard of clothes. The results could hardly have been worse.
Levi jeans and bourbon could be hit with a 25% import tax by the European Union if President Donald Trump imposes tariffs on European steel and aluminium.
No great loss there then....
I’ve got a grandson caled Jack Daniel. He’s making a collection of every type of JD whiskey. About 20, I think, Hasn’t drunk any of them yet, though.
A bombshell study has found that few voters believe the Conservative Party’s key election claim that its councils cost less for quality local services.
Only three in 10 voters across London see the Conservatives as the party of low council tax and a meagre 18 per cent in Tory-run boroughs think it delivers on its boast of lower bills and better services.
The report, by ex-Conservative treasurer Lord Ashcroft, comes before the May 3 elections in London, where the Conservatives are fighting to avoid the loss of flagships such as Wandsworth, Barnet and Westminster.
It found that many Londoners plan to use their votes to punish Theresa May and the national government for Brexit and spending cuts.
Few appeared nervous of Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn’s Left-wing supporters taking over councils. In Tory-run boroughs only a third of voters associated the party with either better services or lower council tax.
Council tax in Coventry went up 4.9% with the Labour administered council this year. So I asked my Dad what it would have gone up if the Tories were in charge. The alternative budget had a 4.9% increase too
That's because councils are limited to 5%. Maybe Theresa May should remove that ceiling, which may be seen by voters as making it safe to vote Labour in local elections.
Are you mad Richard ?!
Do you really want to pay more council tax ?
If he doesn't pay more council tax he will pay more in other taxes - or suffer ever declining services.
People that pay the most tax don't really use the services.
Levi jeans and bourbon could be hit with a 25% import tax by the European Union if President Donald Trump imposes tariffs on European steel and aluminium.
No great loss there then....
And in response the US will put an import tax on EU whisky/whiskey. Guess which country that will hit? Thank you Brussels.
Levi jeans and bourbon could be hit with a 25% import tax by the European Union if President Donald Trump imposes tariffs on European steel and aluminium.
No great loss there then....
It's hard to keep up, but if the USA wants to make Cornish pasties and Scotch whisky, surely we can distill our own Kentucky bourbon?
Miss Cyclefree, indeed, Merkel's migration madness won't have gone down well at all in Italy.
It's not just Merkel. It's the fact that migrants have been turning up in Southern Italy, in Sicily, in Lampedusa for years and the Italians are trying to deal with them and getting v little help from anyone else. Indeed the French have effectively closed the border at Ventimiglia to stop the migrants getting into France. Not much solidarity there.
And, historically, the Italians have bad memories of North Africans......
So it is little surprise that they are feeling fed up with it all.
Matt D'Ancona nails it with the current outbreak of peace within the Tory party - they've finally realized Jezza's Labour is a serious and dangerous threat and have belatedly decided to show a united front.
But Theresa is surely walking a tightrope. One misstep or hint of betrayal and it will all kick off once more.
Or the other alternative is that she set out a credible, sensible and ultimately workable deal for Brexit?
Remember Matt's buddy Goerge Osborne claimed Theresa was a "dead woman walking" and would be out of office by Wednesday 14th June 2017...
May's speech had intimations of reality while entirely failing to address the hard choices she referred to in the abstract. It was maybe clever to put off the decision making while pretending to make hard choices. At some point we will need to decide between a destructive Brexit and a pointless one, but we're not there yet. I think we will end up with the pointless one but as a Remainer who accepts Brexit will happen, people might accuse me of saying what I would say.
A bombshell study has found that few voters believe the Conservative Party’s key election claim that its councils cost less for quality local services.
Only three in 10 voters across London see the Conservatives as the party of low council tax and a meagre 18 per cent in Tory-run boroughs think it delivers on its boast of lower bills and better services.
The report, by ex-Conservative treasurer Lord Ashcroft, comes before the May 3 elections in London, where the Conservatives are fighting to avoid the loss of flagships such as Wandsworth, Barnet and Westminster.
It found that many Londoners plan to use their votes to punish Theresa May and the national government for Brexit and spending cuts.
Few appeared nervous of Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn’s Left-wing supporters taking over councils. In Tory-run boroughs only a third of voters associated the party with either better services or lower council tax.
Given 20 out of 32 London boroughs are Labour held and only 9 Tory held few Londoners have much experience of Tory run boroughs anyway.
Crucially 32% of voters in Tory boroughs think they are well run and only 25% badly run, that is significantly better than the 29% in Labour boroughs who think they are well run with 28% believing them badly run
Levi jeans and bourbon could be hit with a 25% import tax by the European Union if President Donald Trump imposes tariffs on European steel and aluminium.
No great loss there then....
It's hard to keep up, but if the USA wants to make Cornish pasties and Scotch whisky, surely we can distill our own Kentucky bourbon?
Why would one want to do that when you can drink the good stuff from Scotland...
Miss Cyclefree, indeed, Merkel's migration madness won't have gone down well at all in Italy.
It's not just Merkel. It's the fact that migrants have been turning up in Southern Italy, in Sicily, in Lampedusa for years and the Italians are trying to deal with them and getting v little help from anyone else. Indeed the French have effectively closed the border at Ventimiglia to stop the migrants getting into France. Not much solidarity there.
And, historically, the Italians have bad memories of North Africans......
So it is little surprise that they are feeling fed up with it all.
Couple of years ago part of the cricket Under 19’s Word Cup was staged in N Essex, and I went to watch a few of the games. The Italian team was, IIRC, all of S Asian origin.
Levi jeans and bourbon could be hit with a 25% import tax by the European Union if President Donald Trump imposes tariffs on European steel and aluminium.
No great loss there then....
And in response the US will put an import tax on EU whisky/whiskey. Guess which country that will hit? Thank you Brussels.
I doubt if Cognac and Champagne will escape - guess which country that will hit?
Levi jeans and bourbon could be hit with a 25% import tax by the European Union if President Donald Trump imposes tariffs on European steel and aluminium.
No great loss there then....
It's hard to keep up, but if the USA wants to make Cornish pasties and Scotch whisky, surely we can distill our own Kentucky bourbon?
Miss Cyclefree, indeed, Merkel's migration madness won't have gone down well at all in Italy.
It's not just Merkel. It's the fact that migrants have been turning up in Southern Italy, in Sicily, in Lampedusa for years and the Italians are trying to deal with them and getting v little help from anyone else. Indeed the French have effectively closed the border at Ventimiglia to stop the migrants getting into France. Not much solidarity there.
And, historically, the Italians have bad memories of North Africans......
So it is little surprise that they are feeling fed up with it all.
In fairness they weren't particularly kind to the Carthaginians themselves...
BBC sound like they could be in hot water under IR35 rules, for forcing full time presenting staff to work as contractors for a decade. Lots of unhappy people, who now have HMRC on their backs personally for the tax and NI they believe is owed. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/03/03/stars-turn-bbc-tax-stitch/
Yep, looks like they been naughty boys and girls. Once the HMRC have a scent they can find loads of cases they'll chase them for easy money.
We went through all this in the IT industry. I'm not a fan of the BBC's administration, but this doesn't seem to be something you can lay at their door directly.
I doubt they had substitutability clauses in the contracts (for obvious reasons) and so any accountant the presenters used to set up their company, *should* have told them they were liable under IR35, and hence should've been paying their full whack of tax and NI, not just dividend taxes.
So they should be going after their accountants, not the BBC.
PI insurance for accountants must be a nightmare now that HMRC have become so aggressive in going after such historic cases - even though the rules themselves haven’t changed, the interpretation certainly has. But if you’re doing 40 hours a week for seven years for the same company, that’s always been a complete no-no unless there’s substantial other earnings. You really need to do three days with one company and two days with another, or work on six month contracts now to avoid IR35.
All of which is bloody annoying for the genuine self-employed, who take on their own business risk.
People have been playing this game ever since I've been an accountant for the last 15 years. It's been safety in numbers.
I was on the other side of it as an IT consultant in the UK for a few years. It’s been pretty clear for a while that if you have only one customer for the whole tax year you’re going to get done. A 12 month contract might be okay if it didn’t start in April, and make sure you have lots of meetings with prospects and agents in the diary throughout the year.
Thankfully I don’t have to deal with that any more, no self-employment reporting requirements in the sandpit if you can stay under the $100k VAT threshold.
I thought the VAT threshold was lower than £100,000. More like £72,000 ?
Over here in the UAE it’s $100k, annual turnover, in the UK it’s £85k, which is slightly higher.
A bombshell study has found that few voters believe the Conservative Party’s key election claim that its councils cost less for quality local services.
Only three in 10 voters across London see the Conservatives as the party of low council tax and a meagre 18 per cent in Tory-run boroughs think it delivers on its boast of lower bills and better services.
The report, by ex-Conservative treasurer Lord Ashcroft, comes before the May 3 elections in London, where the Conservatives are fighting to avoid the loss of flagships such as Wandsworth, Barnet and Westminster.
It found that many Londoners plan to use their votes to punish Theresa May and the national government for Brexit and spending cuts.
Few appeared nervous of Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn’s Left-wing supporters taking over councils. In Tory-run boroughs only a third of voters associated the party with either better services or lower council tax.
Council tax in Coventry went up 4.9% with the Labour administered council this year. So I asked my Dad what it would have gone up if the Tories were in charge. The alternative budget had a 4.9% increase too
That's because councils are limited to 5%. Maybe Theresa May should remove that ceiling, which may be seen by voters as making it safe to vote Labour in local elections.
Are you mad Richard ?!
Do you really want to pay more council tax ?
If he doesn't pay more council tax he will pay more in other taxes - or suffer ever declining services.
People that pay the most tax don't really use the services.
Ther'e some truth in that, though some of the most complianed about services: bin collections, roads, policing etc. affect high earners as much as low.
BBC sound like they could be in hot water under IR35 rules, for forcing full time presenting staff to work as contractors for a decade. Lots of unhappy people, who now have HMRC on their backs personally for the tax and NI they believe is owed. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/03/03/stars-turn-bbc-tax-stitch/
Yep, looks like they been naughty boys and girls. Once the HMRC have a scent they can find loads of cases they'll chase them for easy money.
We went through all this in the IT industry. I'm not a fan of the BBC's administration, but this doesn't seem to be something you can lay at their door directly.
I doubt they had substitutability clauses in the contracts (for obvious reasons) and so any accountant the presenters used to set up their company, *should* have told them they were liable under IR35, and hence should've been paying their full whack of tax and NI, not just dividend taxes.
So they should be going after their accountants, not the BBC.
PI insurance for accountants must be a nightmare now that HMRC have become so aggressive in going after such historic cases - even though the rules themselves haven’t changed, the interpretation certainly has. But if you’re doing 40 hours a week for seven years for the same company, that’s always been a complete no-no unless there’s substantial other earnings. You really need to do three days with one company and two days with another, or work on six month contracts now to avoid IR35.
All of which is bloody annoying for the genuine self-employed, who take on their own business risk.
People have been playing this game ever since I've been an accountant for the last 15 years. It's been safety in numbers.
I was on the other side of it as an IT consultant in the UK for a few years. It’s been pretty clear for a while that if you have only one customer for the whole tax year you’re going to get done. A 12 month contract might be okay if it didn’t start in April, and make sure you have lots of meetings with prospects and agents in the diary throughout the year.
Thankfully I don’t have to deal with that any more, no self-employment reporting requirements in the sandpit if you can stay under the $100k VAT threshold.
I thought the VAT threshold was lower than £100,000. More like £72,000 ?
Over here in the UAE it’s $100k, annual turnover, in the UK it’s £85k, which is slightly higher.
That's why I find it astonishing you think he will get two terms. I think he is the final nail in the coffin of the Republican Party.
The GOP will double down with Trump.
The Demographics/population centres/electoral college aren't helping the Dems.
It is entirely possible in 2020 Trump loses the popular vote by 5 million votes and win an even bigger majority in the electoral college.
It is possible by 2028 the Dems could win the popular vote by 10 million and still lose the electoral college.
I thought that the number of electoral college votes were amended to reflect the population of each State fairly regularly. I recall Florida getting an extra one, I think. If the coastal population continues to increase disproportionately it will become increasingly difficult for the middle to elect republicans.
On topic, May has telegraphed in a fairly transparent way that a second referendum is coming, firstly with her five tests, but also with her answer that "no British Prime Minister" could sign the withdrawal agreement.
Why does a vicar's daughter who dislikes lying use such precise words about the future? Even Ken Clarke said 'we're leaving the EU'. It seemed a hostage to fortune; a week's a long time in politics, so 'no plans to' is always safer than 'will not'.
Still less than well over 9bn a year net "as is". So there should be 3-5bn per year available to "bank" back to UK HMG, as well as all the CAP payments being repatriated.
Assuming no loss in revenue due to more adverse trading conditions...
That's why I find it astonishing you think he will get two terms. I think he is the final nail in the coffin of the Republican Party.
Because he may not be a good president but he is certainly a lucky one - at least as far as the economy goes and that is really all that matters. If he gets to 2020 and all his opponents have to go is the non-economic stuff he is going to walk it unfortunately.
Ther'e some truth in that, though some of the most complianed about services: bin collections, roads, policing etc. affect high earners as much as low.
Our bin collections are excellent now, having been outsourced to Keir*. The difference in the quality of service is quite remarkable, and the council saved a lot.
* There were some teething troubles in the transition, but Keir took the hit and refunded some of their fee.
That's why I find it astonishing you think he will get two terms. I think he is the final nail in the coffin of the Republican Party.
Because he may not be a good president but he is certainly a lucky one - at least as far as the economy goes and that is really all that matters. If he gets to 2020 and all his opponents have to go is the non-economic stuff he is going to walk it unfortunately.
There must be a good chance of a recession before the end of 2020 though.
On topic, May has telegraphed in a fairly transparent way that a second referendum is coming, firstly with her five tests, but also with her answer that "no British Prime Minister" could sign the withdrawal agreement.
Why does a vicar's daughter who dislikes lying use such precise words about the future? Even Ken Clarke said 'we're leaving the EU'. It seemed a hostage to fortune; a week's a long time in politics, so 'no plans to' is always safer than 'will not'.
Because people will read "no plans" as "maybe" and "yes"....
That's why I find it astonishing you think he will get two terms. I think he is the final nail in the coffin of the Republican Party.
The GOP will double down with Trump.
The Demographics/population centres/electoral college aren't helping the Dems.
It is entirely possible in 2020 Trump loses the popular vote by 5 million votes and win an even bigger majority in the electoral college.
It is possible by 2028 the Dems could win the popular vote by 10 million and still lose the electoral college.
I thought that the number of electoral college votes were amended to reflect the population of each State fairly regularly. I recall Florida getting an extra one, I think. If the coastal population continues to increase disproportionately it will become increasingly difficult for the middle to elect republicans.
No good piling up votes in New York and California as they become much more strongly Dem though.Still the same number of EC votes.
Its Corbyn's problem. Those that really like you in your heartlands pile up massive majorities, whilst losing the marginals....
That's why I find it astonishing you think he will get two terms. I think he is the final nail in the coffin of the Republican Party.
The GOP will double down with Trump.
The Demographics/population centres/electoral college aren't helping the Dems.
It is entirely possible in 2020 Trump loses the popular vote by 5 million votes and win an even bigger majority in the electoral college.
It is possible by 2028 the Dems could win the popular vote by 10 million and still lose the electoral college.
They didn't help last time, but it will help then tremendously if Florida flips. And several hundred thousand voting eligible Puerto Ricans have moved to Florida. I imagine they aren't that keen on Trump.
Ther'e some truth in that, though some of the most complianed about services: bin collections, roads, policing etc. affect high earners as much as low.
Our bin collections are excellent now, having been outsourced to Keir*. The difference in the quality of service is quite remarkable, and the council saved a lot.
* There were some teething troubles in the transition, but Keir took the hit and refunded some of their fee.
Last week our bins were not collected because of the snow. (My milkman still managed to reach the wilds of West Hampstead, though - and in the middle of the night - so how a bloody great refuse van couldn't beats me.)
We were all instructed to keep the bins out on the street as they would be collected over the weekend - a normal wintry weekend with no snow or rain and not, frankly, that cold. Monday pm: still not collected.
I'm leaving mine out until Friday, the next scheduled collection day. Only a minor irritation in the grand scheme of things but still annoying that something as basic as this cannot be done efficiently. Still the Tories are non-existent on the council and the Lib Dems have been all but wiped out so we're stuck with the Labour council.
That's why I find it astonishing you think he will get two terms. I think he is the final nail in the coffin of the Republican Party.
The GOP will double down with Trump.
The Demographics/population centres/electoral college aren't helping the Dems.
It is entirely possible in 2020 Trump loses the popular vote by 5 million votes and win an even bigger majority in the electoral college.
It is possible by 2028 the Dems could win the popular vote by 10 million and still lose the electoral college.
I thought that the number of electoral college votes were amended to reflect the population of each State fairly regularly. I recall Florida getting an extra one, I think. If the coastal population continues to increase disproportionately it will become increasingly difficult for the middle to elect republicans.
No good piling up votes in New York and California as they become much more strongly Dem though.Still the same number of EC votes.
Its Corbyn's problem. Those that really like you in your heartlands pile up massive majorities, whilst losing the marginals....
But if the population of California goes up another 5m they will get more votes in the electoral college.
Completely off topic: I assume that Hollywood stars have money and stylist and their pick of gowns. And yet they dress SO badly - utter eyesores most of them. No elegance or style. They may as well have walked naked with their body covered in glue into a cupboard of clothes...
That's why I find it astonishing you think he will get two terms. I think he is the final nail in the coffin of the Republican Party.
The GOP will double down with Trump.
The Demographics/population centres/electoral college aren't helping the Dems.
It is entirely possible in 2020 Trump loses the popular vote by 5 million votes and win an even bigger majority in the electoral college.
It is possible by 2028 the Dems could win the popular vote by 10 million and still lose the electoral college.
I thought that the number of electoral college votes were amended to reflect the population of each State fairly regularly. I recall Florida getting an extra one, I think. If the coastal population continues to increase disproportionately it will become increasingly difficult for the middle to elect republicans.
It is, but
1) The Dems are piling up voters in the wrong places. Winning California by 30% is the same as winning it by half a per cent.
2) The GOP are winning the smaller states, and with the two top electoral college vote gives them a disproportionate boost. For every California 2 up boost, there's places like Wyoming, The Dakotas, Alaska to help the GOP which also get the 2 up boost.
That's why I find it astonishing you think he will get two terms. I think he is the final nail in the coffin of the Republican Party.
The GOP will double down with Trump.
The Demographics/population centres/electoral college aren't helping the Dems.
It is entirely possible in 2020 Trump loses the popular vote by 5 million votes and win an even bigger majority in the electoral college.
It is possible by 2028 the Dems could win the popular vote by 10 million and still lose the electoral college.
I thought that the number of electoral college votes were amended to reflect the population of each State fairly regularly. I recall Florida getting an extra one, I think. If the coastal population continues to increase disproportionately it will become increasingly difficult for the middle to elect republicans.
It's more a case that the Democrats are winning too many votes in the North East, California, and big cities, and not enough elsewhere. Whether you win California by 5% or 25% makes no difference to the number of EC votes you get.
The back of the queue quite pissed off so many people and at a crucial time in the campaign.
You think we are at the front of the queue for a trade deal with Donald "Trade Wars are Great" Trump?
Awesome...
You really have turned into a twat haven't you. Where is there any evidence that I think that is great, said anything positive about the big baby etc etc etc.
That was then, this is now. The point is that Obama made a comment that pissed off a lot of people at a crucial time in the campaign. He came over and in a clearly coordinated attempted to support the Remain campaign decided that threatening us with a poor trade deal if we left was a good tactic and it backfired.
The fact we now have Trump throwing a massive anti-free trade tantrum is irrelevant to that point.
If we do have a trade war can we have a 4,000% tariff on pizzas with pineapple on them?
We import pineapple pizzas??
Pizzas are from Italy and pineapple aren't grown here are they
Reminds me of the 'mozzarella-style' cheese that will be 81p instead of £1.50p in the JRM/Sun post Brexit tariff-free world. I am sure it will wipe the floor with the real Italian Mozzarella you can currently buy in Waitrose for 70p (other supermarkets are available).
Not to accept a democratic referendum result is one thing, but to suggest that if we have a second referendum in which older people who are likely to vote in a certain way should have obstacles placed in their way at the polling booth in order to get the result you want takes the breath away.
That was then, this is now. The point is that Obama made a comment that pissed off a lot of people at a crucial time in the campaign. The fact we now have Trump is irrelevant to that point.
LOL
He was right, then and now, which seems to upset you.
And when May made a comment that pissed off a lot of people (citizens of nowhere), somehow you don't seem as concerned.
Miss Cyclefree, indeed, Merkel's migration madness won't have gone down well at all in Italy.
It's not just Merkel. It's the fact that migrants have been turning up in Southern Italy, in Sicily, in Lampedusa for years and the Italians are trying to deal with them and getting v little help from anyone else. Indeed the French have effectively closed the border at Ventimiglia to stop the migrants getting into France. Not much solidarity there.
And, historically, the Italians have bad memories of North Africans......
So it is little surprise that they are feeling fed up with it all.
Report said that the new Italian government will stop payments to Brussels and of course the migrant crisis is a huge problem. Also as far as I am aware crime and the mafia are endemic in Italy, particularly in the south, so no doubt politicians have a big problem with corruption
Completely off topic: I assume that Hollywood stars have money and stylist and their pick of gowns. And yet they dress SO badly - utter eyesores most of them. No elegance or style. They may as well have walked naked with their body covered in glue into a cupboard of clothes. The results could hardly have been worse.
Claws being worn on the outside this season I see....
That's why I find it astonishing you think he will get two terms. I think he is the final nail in the coffin of the Republican Party.
The GOP will double down with Trump.
The Demographics/population centres/electoral college aren't helping the Dems.
It is entirely possible in 2020 Trump loses the popular vote by 5 million votes and win an even bigger majority in the electoral college.
It is possible by 2028 the Dems could win the popular vote by 10 million and still lose the electoral college.
I thought that the number of electoral college votes were amended to reflect the population of each State fairly regularly. I recall Florida getting an extra one, I think. If the coastal population continues to increase disproportionately it will become increasingly difficult for the middle to elect republicans.
It is, but
1) The Dems are piling up voters in the wrong places. Winning California by 30% is the same as winning it by half a per cent.
2) The GOP are winning the smaller states, and with the two top electoral college vote gives them a disproportionate boost. For every California 2 up boost, there's places like Wyoming, The Dakotas, Alaska to help the GOP which also get the 2 up boost.
Yep. The senate is moving away from the Dems, too, and they're fixed at 2 per state regardless of pop size.
Not to accept a democratic referendum result is one thing, but to suggest that if we have a second referendum in which older people who are likely to vote in a certain way should have obstacles placed in their way at the polling booth in order to get the result you want takes the breath away.
Those older people being the same ones who in 1975 voted for us to stay in the EU? But apparently no one ever changes their views as they get older - that's why we have permanent majority Labour Green coalition governments isn't it?!
Ther'e some truth in that, though some of the most complianed about services: bin collections, roads, policing etc. affect high earners as much as low.
Our bin collections are excellent now, having been outsourced to Keir*. The difference in the quality of service is quite remarkable, and the council saved a lot.
* There were some teething troubles in the transition, but Keir took the hit and refunded some of their fee.
Last week our bins were not collected because of the snow. (My milkman still managed to reach the wilds of West Hampstead, though - and in the middle of the night - so how a bloody great refuse van couldn't beats me.)
We were all instructed to keep the bins out on the street as they would be collected over the weekend - a normal wintry weekend with no snow or rain and not, frankly, that cold. Monday pm: still not collected.
I'm leaving mine out until Friday, the next scheduled collection day. Only a minor irritation in the grand scheme of things but still annoying that something as basic as this cannot be done efficiently. Still the Tories are non-existent on the council and the Lib Dems have been all but wiped out so we're stuck with the Labour council.
Ours weren’t collected Wednesday, as scheduled, but was on Friday, and the waste food bin on Saturday. Tory controlled council which operates its own rubbish service.
Haven’t need to check the bottle bank, althouigh it’s getting close!
That was then, this is now. The point is that Obama made a comment that pissed off a lot of people at a crucial time in the campaign. The fact we now have Trump is irrelevant to that point.
LOL
He was right, then and now, which seems to upset you.
And when May made a comment that pissed off a lot of people (citizens of nowhere), somehow you don't seem as concerned.
I am stating a fact in relation to the argument down thread over how prominent figures interventions in the EU referendum campaign played out. My personal opinion is irrelevant.
It is like saying well the Tories were right to come up with the dementia tax, we need to better fund elderly care...they might be, but it killed their GE campaign.
As for my feeling as Kim Jong May, you will be hard pressed to find many positive postings about her.
A bombshell study has found that few voters believe the Conservative Party’s key election claim that its councils cost less for quality local services.
Only three in 10 voters across London see the Conservatives as the party of low council tax and a meagre 18 per cent in Tory-run boroughs think it delivers on its boast of lower bills and better services.
The report, by ex-Conservative treasurer Lord Ashcroft, comes before the May 3 elections in London, where the Conservatives are fighting to avoid the loss of flagships such as Wandsworth, Barnet and Westminster.
It found that many Londoners plan to use their votes to punish Theresa May and the national government for Brexit and spending cuts.
Few appeared nervous of Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn’s Left-wing supporters taking over councils. In Tory-run boroughs only a third of voters associated the party with either better services or lower council tax.
Council tax in Coventry went up 4.9% with the Labour administered council this year. So I asked my Dad what it would have gone up if the Tories were in charge. The alternative budget had a 4.9% increase too
That's because councils are limited to 5%. Maybe Theresa May should remove that ceiling, which may be seen by voters as making it safe to vote Labour in local elections.
Are you mad Richard ?!
Do you really want to pay more council tax ?
If he doesn't pay more council tax he will pay more in other taxes - or suffer ever declining services.
People that pay the most tax don't really use the services.
Ther'e some truth in that, though some of the most complianed about services: bin collections, roads, policing etc. affect high earners as much as low.
The reason bin collections are such a hot topic is because, if you live in a reasonable area and don’t have children, it’s literally the only positive thing you ever see in exchange for your council tax. They’re some very expensive bin collections!
That's why I find it astonishing you think he will get two terms. I think he is the final nail in the coffin of the Republican Party.
The GOP will double down with Trump.
The Demographics/population centres/electoral college aren't helping the Dems.
It is entirely possible in 2020 Trump loses the popular vote by 5 million votes and win an even bigger majority in the electoral college.
It is possible by 2028 the Dems could win the popular vote by 10 million and still lose the electoral college.
I thought that the number of electoral college votes were amended to reflect the population of each State fairly regularly. I recall Florida getting an extra one, I think. If the coastal population continues to increase disproportionately it will become increasingly difficult for the middle to elect republicans.
It is, but
1) The Dems are piling up voters in the wrong places. Winning California by 30% is the same as winning it by half a per cent.
2) The GOP are winning the smaller states, and with the two top electoral college vote gives them a disproportionate boost. For every California 2 up boost, there's places like Wyoming, The Dakotas, Alaska to help the GOP which also get the 2 up boost.
At some point the Dems are going to crack Texas. Then how can the Republicans win the electoral college?
That's why I find it astonishing you think he will get two terms. I think he is the final nail in the coffin of the Republican Party.
The GOP will double down with Trump.
The Demographics/population centres/electoral college aren't helping the Dems.
It is entirely possible in 2020 Trump loses the popular vote by 5 million votes and win an even bigger majority in the electoral college.
It is possible by 2028 the Dems could win the popular vote by 10 million and still lose the electoral college.
I thought that the number of electoral college votes were amended to reflect the population of each State fairly regularly. I recall Florida getting an extra one, I think. If the coastal population continues to increase disproportionately it will become increasingly difficult for the middle to elect republicans.
That's not the issue for the Democrats, indeed I did some calculations.
If the electoral college was based precisely on population, Trump would have won 303 - 235.
California should be worth 65 ECVs and New York 34, but Texas would also be worth 45, and Florida 33.
Now Wyoming should only be worth 1 ECV, but so should DC and Hawaii, Rhode Island are both over-represented.
The problem is that the margins in California and the west coast are hugely in favour of the Democrats whereas Texas is much much closer and so the GOP vote is much more efficient.
Not to accept a democratic referendum result is one thing, but to suggest that if we have a second referendum in which older people who are likely to vote in a certain way should have obstacles placed in their way at the polling booth in order to get the result you want takes the breath away.
Those older people being the same ones who in 1975 voted for us to stay in the EU? But apparently no one ever changes their views as they get older - that's why we have permanent majority Labour Green coalition governments isn't it?!
Whats that got to do with it? Are remoaners on this site seriously suggesting gerrymandering the result of a second referendum by making it more difficult for older people to vote? Seriously?
Comments
Remember Matt's buddy Goerge Osborne claimed Theresa was a "dead woman walking" and would be out of office by Wednesday 14th June 2017...
'I love my brick'
https://twitter.com/andytoots/status/873173855166238720
Crucially 32% of voters in Tory boroughs think they are well run and only 25% badly run, that is significantly better than the 29% in Labour boroughs who think they are well run with 28% believing them badly run
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/local-elections-2018-new-poll-shock-for-tories-in-london-most-voters-reject-partys-message-on-low-a3781636.html
Do you really want to pay more council tax
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/970628441115643904
https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/970611260814516224
It's like saying, this club has loads of faults but we should stay in because it's awesome. The remain campaign was coherent in a sense because it made the argument that "yes we think the EU is shit, but we think leave will be the end of days" and ran the campaign on the basis of relative good.
Corbyn may have been brutally honest with his 7/10 comment, but it was probably much less helpful than you think.
https://order-order.com/2018/03/05/bricking-it-theresa-gives-speech-standing-in-chimney/
Chim-chim-cheroo...
But I do wish people would stop putting pineapple in nice food.
Time to go postal on these people.
And builders have closed the road to start digging it up at the other end.
Marvellous.
Italy takes a much less transactional view of the relationship than Britain. Their own political structures and politicians are so shit that the EU has always been seen as a vast improvement. And given what came before the EU in Italy, who can blame them for taking that view.
Plus it allows Italian politicians more money from the EU for their favoured clients. So a win-win all round.
Italy's relative disillusionment now is because of its economic problems, on which Mr Smithson Jr has opined elegantly below, and the migration issue which has hit Italy - a largely homogenous society less enamoured of the bad side of multiculturalism (and which has not suffered the sort of terrorism or integration issues other countries have had) - hard.
Her judgment is still faulty.
No great loss there then....
Miss Cyclefree, indeed, Merkel's migration madness won't have gone down well at all in Italy.
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/970559982507905024
Obviously long term its bad for everyone.
(Edit FFS)
The modern day Manchurian Candidate.
https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/970617452890677248
And, historically, the Italians have bad memories of North Africans......
So it is little surprise that they are feeling fed up with it all.
The Demographics/population centres/electoral college aren't helping the Dems.
It is entirely possible in 2020 Trump loses the popular vote by 5 million votes and win an even bigger majority in the electoral college.
It is possible by 2028 the Dems could win the popular vote by 10 million and still lose the electoral college.
I think I see a small flaw in your plan.
* There were some teething troubles in the transition, but Keir took the hit and refunded some of their fee.
Awesome...
Talking of uncontrolled vomiting, I am not enjoying what I believe is my first encounter with norovirus....
Its Corbyn's problem. Those that really like you in your heartlands pile up massive majorities, whilst losing the marginals....
We were all instructed to keep the bins out on the street as they would be collected over the weekend - a normal wintry weekend with no snow or rain and not, frankly, that cold. Monday pm: still not collected.
I'm leaving mine out until Friday, the next scheduled collection day. Only a minor irritation in the grand scheme of things but still annoying that something as basic as this cannot be done efficiently. Still the Tories are non-existent on the council and the Lib Dems have been all but wiped out so we're stuck with the Labour council.
Just - keep your distance.
1) The Dems are piling up voters in the wrong places. Winning California by 30% is the same as winning it by half a per cent.
2) The GOP are winning the smaller states, and with the two top electoral college vote gives them a disproportionate boost. For every California 2 up boost, there's places like Wyoming, The Dakotas, Alaska to help the GOP which also get the 2 up boost.
That was then, this is now. The point is that Obama made a comment that pissed off a lot of people at a crucial time in the campaign. He came over and in a clearly coordinated attempted to support the Remain campaign decided that threatening us with a poor trade deal if we left was a good tactic and it backfired.
The fact we now have Trump throwing a massive anti-free trade tantrum is irrelevant to that point.
Not to accept a democratic referendum result is one thing, but to suggest that if we have a second referendum in which older people who are likely to vote in a certain way should have obstacles placed in their way at the polling booth in order to get the result you want takes the breath away.
Sympathies on the norovirus.
He was right, then and now, which seems to upset you.
And when May made a comment that pissed off a lot of people (citizens of nowhere), somehow you don't seem as concerned.
Haven’t need to check the bottle bank, althouigh it’s getting close!
It is like saying well the Tories were right to come up with the dementia tax, we need to better fund elderly care...they might be, but it killed their GE campaign.
As for my feeling as Kim Jong May, you will be hard pressed to find many positive postings about her.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact
Then how can the Republicans win the electoral college?
If the electoral college was based precisely on population, Trump would have won 303 - 235.
California should be worth 65 ECVs and New York 34, but Texas would also be worth 45, and Florida 33.
Now Wyoming should only be worth 1 ECV, but so should DC and Hawaii, Rhode Island are both over-represented.
The problem is that the margins in California and the west coast are hugely in favour of the Democrats whereas Texas is much much closer and so the GOP vote is much more efficient.
Seriously?