politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tories lose all FIVE seats they were defending in party’s wors

System · March 2018

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tories lose all FIVE seats they were defending in party’s worst night of local elections since TMay became PM

Farnworth on Bolton (Lab defence) Result: Con 153 (6% -3% on last time), Lab 969 (38% -10% on last time), Lib Dem 23 (1% -2% on last time), UKIP 169 (7% -29% on last time), Green 18 (1% -3% on last time), Residents 1,204 (47%, no candidate last time) Residents GAIN from Labour with a majority of 235 (9%) on a notional swing of 28.5% from Lab to Residents (9.5% from UKIP to Lab)

Read the full story here

Floater · March 2018

first?

Sean_F · March 2018

According to Andrew Teale, Labour are in complete disarray on Bolton Council, and this result (and a loss to the Tories a couple of weeks ago) confirms it.

Theuniondivvie · March 2018

Sweepstake on top responses?

Local circumstances
Weather
Voter fatigue
Bloody Kippers going Lab
Who cares about parish councils

rottenborough · March 2018

41 votes for Bus-Pass Elvis Party in Wollaton.

Sean_F · March 2018

Theuniondivvie said:
Sweepstake on top responses?

Local circumstances
Weather
Voter fatigue
Bloody Kippers going Lab
Who cares about parish councils

Losing 5 out of 5 is very poor. But, it is against the run of play since the start of the year (prior to yesterday, the Conservatives had won 27 out of 52).

SandyRentool · March 2018

Sean_F said:
According to Andrew Teale, Labour are in complete disarray on Bolton Council, and this result (and a loss to the Tories a couple of weeks ago) confirms it.

So let's ignore the 5 Tory losses and focus on the single Labour loss. Very good.

What about that swing in Medway?

Sean_F · March 2018

SandyRentool said:

Sean_F said:
According to Andrew Teale, Labour are in complete disarray on Bolton Council, and this result (and a loss to the Tories a couple of weeks ago) confirms it.
So let's ignore the 5 Tory losses and focus on the single Labour loss. Very good.

What about that swing in Medway?

That surprises me. I'd have expected an easy Conservative hold. I'm not surprised by the loss in Nottingham, but I'd have expected the Conservatives to win 4.

AlastairMeeks · March 2018

That's a desperately poor set of results for the Conservatives all round.

DavidL · March 2018

They're doomed, they're doomed, they're....on 43%.

tpfkar · March 2018

Theuniondivvie said:
Sweepstake on top responses?

Local circumstances
Weather
Voter fatigue
Bloody Kippers going Lab
Who cares about parish councils

Small number of voters
NIMBYs
not enough media coverage of Jeremy Corbyn's facebook profile
Independents who are Tory really

Any more for any more?

AlastairMeeks · March 2018

DavidL said:
They're doomed, they're doomed, they're....on 43%.

It suggests a distinct lack of enthusiasm for Team Conservatives, whatever the opinion poll headline results might be suggesting.

Ishmael_Z · March 2018

Theuniondivvie said:
Sweepstake on top responses?

Local circumstances
Weather
Voter fatigue
Bloody Kippers going Lab
Who cares about parish councils

Typical mid term result. Northchurch on Dacorum swing unlikely to be replicated on a national level, anyway.

DavidL · March 2018

If they'd only known that our trade deficit for 2017 was going to be revised down so markedly today I am sure it would all have been different.

(How's that for one not on the lists below?) :-)

tlg86 · March 2018

Farnworth and Kearsley First in Bolton

rottenborough · March 2018

tpfkar said:

Theuniondivvie said:
Sweepstake on top responses?

Local circumstances
Weather
Voter fatigue
Bloody Kippers going Lab
Who cares about parish councils
Small number of voters
NIMBYs
not enough media coverage of Jeremy Corbyn's facebook profile
Independents who are Tory really

Any more for any more?

Tories are away skiing.

rottenborough · March 2018

Sean_F said:

SandyRentool said:

Sean_F said:
According to Andrew Teale, Labour are in complete disarray on Bolton Council, and this result (and a loss to the Tories a couple of weeks ago) confirms it.
So let's ignore the 5 Tory losses and focus on the single Labour loss. Very good.

What about that swing in Medway?
That surprises me. I'd have expected an easy Conservative hold. I'm not surprised by the loss in Nottingham, but I'd have expected the Conservatives to win 4.

Nottingham close to being a one party city.

Ishmael_Z · March 2018

Personation.

DavidL · March 2018

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:
They're doomed, they're doomed, they're....on 43%.
It suggests a distinct lack of enthusiasm for Team Conservatives, whatever the opinion poll headline results might be suggesting.

Or a distinct lack of enthusiasm for the alternative at national level that does not apply locally. If I was a Tory Councillor up in May I wouldn't be too thrilled by this.

TheWhiteRabbit · March 2018

A terrrrriibbble night for the Conservatives....

TheWhiteRabbit · March 2018

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:
They're doomed, they're doomed, they're....on 43%.
It suggests a distinct lack of enthusiasm for Team Conservatives, whatever the opinion poll headline results might be suggesting.

I think it is fair to say at the moment very few people are enthusiastic about any sort of politics.

logical_song · March 2018

Ishmael_Z said:

Theuniondivvie said:
Sweepstake on top responses?

Local circumstances
Weather
Voter fatigue
Bloody Kippers going Lab
Who cares about parish councils
Typical mid term result. Northchurch on Dacorum swing unlikely to be replicated on a national level, anyway.

I think you're fairly safe saying the swing is "unlikely to be replicated on a national level" but then it was a "swing of 36% from Con to Lib Dem".

Sean_F · March 2018

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:
They're doomed, they're doomed, they're....on 43%.
It suggests a distinct lack of enthusiasm for Team Conservatives, whatever the opinion poll headline results might be suggesting.
Or a distinct lack of enthusiasm for the alternative at national level that does not apply locally. If I was a Tory Councillor up in May I wouldn't be too thrilled by this.

It depends whether last night marks the start of a trend against the Conservatives, or whether this year's results as a whole are more representative.

So far this year, the Conservatives have won 28 out of 60 (not 27 as stated earlier) a net loss of three.

Ishmael_Z · March 2018

logical_song said:

Ishmael_Z said:

Theuniondivvie said:
Sweepstake on top responses?

Local circumstances
Weather
Voter fatigue
Bloody Kippers going Lab
Who cares about parish councils
Typical mid term result. Northchurch on Dacorum swing unlikely to be replicated on a national level, anyway.
I think you're fairly safe saying the swing is "unlikely to be replicated on a national level" but then it was a "swing of 36% from Con to Lib Dem".

Um, yes, that was why I said it.

sarissa · March 2018

OT - Clever tactic by HMG re Brexit repatriated powers and the devolved administrations:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-43343716

It's not 25 powers out of 111 at issue, but 24 out of 155 - not sure that will fool many people in Scotland.

The expected big items are there - farming support, GMO regulation, animal health/welfare, fisheries powers not already exercised, competition law etc.

DavidL · March 2018

logical_song said:

Ishmael_Z said:

Theuniondivvie said:
Sweepstake on top responses?

Local circumstances
Weather
Voter fatigue
Bloody Kippers going Lab
Who cares about parish councils
Typical mid term result. Northchurch on Dacorum swing unlikely to be replicated on a national level, anyway.
I think you're fairly safe saying the swing is "unlikely to be replicated on a national level" but then it was a "swing of 36% from Con to Lib Dem".

*Vince Cable goes home to prepare ~~a cup of cocoa~~ for government. *

logical_song · March 2018

Ishmael_Z said:

logical_song said:

Ishmael_Z said:

Theuniondivvie said:
Sweepstake on top responses?

Local circumstances
Weather
Voter fatigue
Bloody Kippers going Lab
Who cares about parish councils
Typical mid term result. Northchurch on Dacorum swing unlikely to be replicated on a national level, anyway.
I think you're fairly safe saying the swing is "unlikely to be replicated on a national level" but then it was a "swing of 36% from Con to Lib Dem".
Um, yes, that was why I said it.

Comes under the heading of 'the bleeding obvious'.

Anorak · March 2018

The Tory's defy gravity in national polling by keeping leaver and anyone-but-Corbyn voters. Local voters can think differently. Shows that if Labour had a moderate leader, they'd be 10 points ahead, easily.

[there may be some confirmation bias in the above]

FF43 · March 2018

DavidL said:
If they'd only known that our trade deficit for 2017 was going to be revised down so markedly today I am sure it would all have been different.

(How's that for one not on the lists below?) :-)

I don't normally go in for selective quoting of figures, but doesn't today's news show the trade deficit widening?
https://twitter.com/ONS/status/972048961098993664
(correction - wrong tweet)

sarissa · March 2018

rottenborough said:
41 votes for Bus-Pass Elvis Party in Wollaton.

Wasn't he the one who wanted to set up an organic community cafe called Viv Las Vegans?

DavidL · March 2018

FF43 said:

DavidL said:
If they'd only known that our trade deficit for 2017 was going to be revised down so markedly today I am sure it would all have been different.

(How's that for one not on the lists below?) :-)
I don't normally go in for selective quoting of figures, but doesn't today's news show the trade deficit widening?
https://twitter.com/ONS/status/972048961098993664
(correction - wrong tweet)

It widened in January but there was a downward revisal of the whole of 2017. It was discussed on the previous thread.

JonnyJimmy · March 2018

https://twitter.com/TheCGA/status/972101059983413248

"February, 1948

THE straw poll-so called one supposes because a straw shows the way the wind blows-has become a feature with most newspapers. One is informed which is the favourite film for the year, the popularity status of the respective political parties, details of domestic budgets and all that sort of thing. One such questioning put to the public by the Daily Express tried to find the priority job for the Government in 1948. Among the nine items listed, food came first, followed by housing, economic finance, exports, foreign relations, taxation, fuel, Empire development . . . and the ninth? Well if you must know, it was agriculture and it polled exactly 1 per cent! Food led the list at 41 per cent, with housing as its nearest rival, 29 per cent. Empire co-operation was twin sister to Cinderella agriculture with 1 per cent.

What are people thinking about? If food polls 41 per cent, why should Empire development and agriculture be rated so low as 1 per cent? Do they really think that the Argentinos, the Danes and the Dutch are fairy godmothers? Ridiculous!

The people are ignorant but it is not their fault entirely, because so much spoon-feeding goes on nowadays, especially in the form of propaganda, that the art of thinking things out for oneself becomes more and more difficult. I am going to tilt at Goliath and blame the N.F.U. for the lack of public interest in agriculture. The N.F.U. allocates a large portion of its not inconsiderable funds, for publicity purposes, and if the officials of that organization would only interpret publicity as "city public" and enlighten the masses about the importance of British agriculture, the result would be beneficial to both farmers and townsfolk. The latter probably think that the N.F.U. is an organization something like the N.U.R. so, in any case, it is just as well to let them know that the Farmers' Union is almost the only union that has not achieved greatness by advocating a strike policy on every possible occasion, for if farmers did strike, the townsfolk would starve."

MarkHopkins · March 2018

What a difference a year makes.

HYUFD · March 2018

Though in the 2 Labour gains it was mainly the UKIP and Green votes going to Labour that was key, the Tory voteshare was up 8% in one and down just 3% in the other

FF43 · March 2018

DavidL said:

FF43 said:

DavidL said:
If they'd only known that our trade deficit for 2017 was going to be revised down so markedly today I am sure it would all have been different.

(How's that for one not on the lists below?) :-)
I don't normally go in for selective quoting of figures, but doesn't today's news show the trade deficit widening?
https://twitter.com/ONS/status/972048961098993664
(correction - wrong tweet)
It widened in January but there was a downward revisal of the whole of 2017. It was discussed on the previous thread.

I think the deficit has widened across the second half of 2017, according to the ONS table. But fair enough.

HYUFD · March 2018

Anorak said:
The Tory's defy gravity in national polling by keeping leaver and anyone-but-Corbyn voters. Local voters can think differently. Shows that if Labour had a moderate leader, they'd be 10 points ahead, easily.

[there may be some confirmation bias in the above]

Evidence? Recent German, Italian, Dutch and US elections suggest otherwise.

Even in France Macron did not run on the Socialist Party ticket

Sunil_Prasannan · March 2018

In the 2014 Locals, the Tories lost over 200 councillors but went on to get a parliamentary majority in 2015.

Anorak · March 2018

HYUFD said:

Anorak said:
The Tory's defy gravity in national polling by keeping leaver and anyone-but-Corbyn voters. Local voters can think differently. Shows that if Labour had a moderate leader, they'd be 10 points ahead, easily.

[there may be some confirmation bias in the above]
Evidence? Recent German, Italian, Dutch and US elections suggest otherwise.

Even in France Macron did not run on the Socialist Party ticket

The 'confirmation bias' was meant to indicate it was an opinion, not a fact.

But I suppose you could view the fact that a Labour Party led by an antisemitic, anti-western trot with links to terrorist organisations and vicious authoritarian regimes, who has threatened the free press and our financial system, who has shown a complete absence of understanding how the economy works, has surrounded himself with proven liars and incompetents, and has directly accused our forces of murdering children in Yemen, is still level pegging in the polls as *evidence*, if you like...

HHemmelig · March 2018

HYUFD said:
Though in the 2 Labour gains it was mainly the UKIP and Green votes going to Labour that was key, the Tory voteshare was up 8% in one and down just 3% in the other

The Nottingham result was far better than expected for the Tories....Wollaton is a wealthy liberal Remainy kind of area next to the university, the kind of place where you might have expected a Canterbury or Kensington swing to Labour. Ironically it is the former ward of John Hayes MP who couldn't have been a very good match with its liberal brand of Toryism.

HYUFD · March 2018

Sunil_Prasannan said:
In the 2014 Locals, the Tories lost over 200 councillors but went on to get a parliamentary majority in 2015.

Ed Miliband only won those elections by 2% though, Blair and Cameron won their final local elections as leader by over 10%

Theuniondivvie · March 2018

Good old SLab, they never* let you down.

https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/972085375916298240

*always

PClipp · March 2018

HYUFD said:
Though in the 2 Labour gains it was mainly the UKIP and Green votes going to Labour that was key, the Tory voteshare was up 8% in one and down just 3% in the other

The problem for you Tories is that, if you polarise the country between "them" and "us", and the "us" cotton on to what you are trying to do, then there could very well a massive concentration of the anti-Tory vote, in favour of whoever seems best place to defeat the Tory candidate. This is what we have seen in the local elections this week.

This is not necessarily in favour of the Labour candidate, so the traditional Corbyn-Labour scare tactics will not work for the Tories next time. At least, I hope not.

HYUFD · March 2018

Anorak said:

HYUFD said:

Anorak said:
The Tory's defy gravity in national polling by keeping leaver and anyone-but-Corbyn voters. Local voters can think differently. Shows that if Labour had a moderate leader, they'd be 10 points ahead, easily.

[there may be some confirmation bias in the above]
Evidence? Recent German, Italian, Dutch and US elections suggest otherwise.

Even in France Macron did not run on the Socialist Party ticket
The 'confirmation bias' was meant to indicate it was an opinion, not a fact.

But I suppose you could view the fact that a Labour Party led by an antisemitic, anti-western trot with links to terrorist organisations and vicious authoritarian regimes, who has threatened the free press and our financial system, who has shown a complete absence of understanding how the economy works, has surrounded himself with proven liars and incompetents, and has directly accused our forces of murdering children in Yemen, is still level pegging in the polls as *evidence*, if you like...

Or you could look at the latest polling today putting Labour on 42%, which would be its highest voteshare since 1997 and a total any centre left party in Europe losing votes to anti immigration and anti globalisation parties at present would give their eye teeth for.

DavidL · March 2018

Theuniondivvie said:
Good old SLab, they never* let you down.

https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/972085375916298240

*always

OMG. That is incredible.

HHemmelig · March 2018

HYUFD said:

Anorak said:

HYUFD said:

Anorak said:
The Tory's defy gravity in national polling by keeping leaver and anyone-but-Corbyn voters. Local voters can think differently. Shows that if Labour had a moderate leader, they'd be 10 points ahead, easily.

[there may be some confirmation bias in the above]
Evidence? Recent German, Italian, Dutch and US elections suggest otherwise.

Even in France Macron did not run on the Socialist Party ticket
The 'confirmation bias' was meant to indicate it was an opinion, not a fact.

But I suppose you could view the fact that a Labour Party led by an antisemitic, anti-western trot with links to terrorist organisations and vicious authoritarian regimes, who has threatened the free press and our financial system, who has shown a complete absence of understanding how the economy works, has surrounded himself with proven liars and incompetents, and has directly accused our forces of murdering children in Yemen, is still level pegging in the polls as *evidence*, if you like...
Or you could look at the latest polling today putting Labour on 42%, it's highest rating since 1997 and a total any centre left party in Europe losing votes to anti immigration and anti globalisation parties at present would give their eye teeth for.

Labour's poll share was far higher than 42% through most of the 1997-2001 parliament.

OldKingCole · March 2018

The former Labour councillor in Harlow ...... the one who resigned and caused the by-election ..... has rtather thrown his toys out of the pram on Tv.
Not the Labour Party he joined etc.
Pro Tory BBC East of England political reporter seems to be making a bit of a meal of it.

HYUFD · March 2018

Anorak said:

HYUFD said:

Anorak said:
The Tory's defy gravity in national polling by keeping leaver and anyone-but-Corbyn voters. Local voters can think differently. Shows that if Labour had a moderate leader, they'd be 10 points ahead, easily.

[there may be some confirmation bias in the above]
Evidence? Recent German, Italian, Dutch and US elections suggest otherwise.

Even in France Macron did not run on the Socialist Party ticket
The 'confirmation bias' was meant to indicate it was an opinion, not a fact.

But I suppose you could view the fact that a Labour Party led by an antisemitic, anti-western trot with links to terrorist organisations and vicious authoritarian regimes, who has threatened the free press and our financial system, who has shown a complete absence of understanding how the economy works, has surrounded himself with proven liars and incompetents, and has directly accused our forces of murdering children in Yemen, is still level pegging in the polls as *evidence*, if you like...

A poll last year showed Labour would get a 2% lower voteshare against the Tories under Cooper or Umunna than under Corbyn, only Khan got a higher Labour voteshare than Corbyn but by just 1%

http://uk.businessinsider.com/poll-labour-would-go-backwards-under-yvette-cooper-or-chuka-umunna-2017-5

TheScreamingEagles · March 2018

Theuniondivvie said:
Good old SLab, they never* let you down.

https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/972085375916298240

*always

Could have been worse, they could have called it the Keir Starmer awards

HYUFD · March 2018

HHemmelig said:

HYUFD said:
Though in the 2 Labour gains it was mainly the UKIP and Green votes going to Labour that was key, the Tory voteshare was up 8% in one and down just 3% in the other
The Nottingham result was far better than expected for the Tories....Wollaton is a wealthy liberal Remainy kind of area next to the university, the kind of place where you might have expected a Canterbury or Kensington swing to Labour. Ironically it is the former ward of John Hayes MP who couldn't have been a very good match with its liberal brand of Toryism.

Yes in terms of raw Tory voteshare

Ishmael_Z · March 2018

DavidL said:

Theuniondivvie said:
Good old SLab, they never* let you down.

https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/972085375916298240

*always
OMG. That is incredible.

Everybody knows it's Kier Hardy.

williamglenn · March 2018

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:
Good old SLab, they never* let you down.

https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/972085375916298240

*always
Could have been worse, they could have called it the Keir Starmer awards

"The flounder of the Labour Party"

Nigelb · March 2018

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:
Good old SLab, they never* let you down.

https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/972085375916298240

*always
Could have been worse, they could have called it the Keir Starmer awards

Or the Keir & Hardy awards....

TheScreamingEagles · March 2018

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:
Good old SLab, they never* let you down.

https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/972085375916298240

*always
Could have been worse, they could have called it the Keir Starmer awards

https://twitter.com/election_data/status/972110450660954113

HYUFD · March 2018

PClipp said:

HYUFD said:
Though in the 2 Labour gains it was mainly the UKIP and Green votes going to Labour that was key, the Tory voteshare was up 8% in one and down just 3% in the other

HYUFD said:
Though in the 2 Labour gains it was mainly the UKIP and Green votes going to Labour that was key, the Tory voteshare was up 8% in one and down just 3% in the other

HYUFD said:
Though in the 2 Labour gains it was mainly the UKIP and Green votes going to Labour that was key, the Tory voteshare was up 8% in one and down just 3% in the other
The problem for you Tories is that, if you polarise the country between "them" and "us", and the "us" cotton on to what you are trying to do, then there could very well a massive concentration of the anti-Tory vote, in favour of whoever seems best place to defeat the Tory candidate. This is what we have seen in the local elections this week.

This is not necessarily in favour of the Labour candidate, so the traditional Corbyn-Labour scare tactics will not work for the Tories next time. At least, I hope not.

There will likely be an anti Tory and anti Labour vote next time but the fact the minor parties were so squeezed at the general election means there is little more room for tactical voting

Theuniondivvie · March 2018

DavidL said:

Theuniondivvie said:
Good old SLab, they never* let you down.

https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/972085375916298240

*always
OMG. That is incredible.

Quite funny.

https://twitter.com/PeterGrantMP/status/972102956119191553

HYUFD · March 2018

HHemmelig said:

HYUFD said:

Anorak said:

HYUFD said:

Anorak said:
The Tory's defy gravity in national polling by keeping leaver and anyone-but-Corbyn voters. Local voters can think differently. Shows that if Labour had a moderate leader, they'd be 10 points ahead, easily.

[there may be some confirmation bias in the above]
Evidence? Recent German, Italian, Dutch and US elections suggest otherwise.

Even in France Macron did not run on the Socialist Party ticket
The 'confirmation bias' was meant to indicate it was an opinion, not a fact.

But I suppose you could view the fact that a Labour Party led by an antisemitic, anti-western trot with links to terrorist organisations and vicious authoritarian regimes, who has threatened the free press and our financial system, who has shown a complete absence of understanding how the economy works, has surrounded himself with proven liars and incompetents, and has directly accused our forces of murdering children in Yemen, is still level pegging in the polls as *evidence*, if you like...
Or you could look at the latest polling today putting Labour on 42%, it's highest rating since 1997 and a total any centre left party in Europe losing votes to anti immigration and anti globalisation parties at present would give their eye teeth for.
Labour's poll share was far higher than 42% through most of the 1997-2001 parliament.

Yet it only got 40% at the 2001 general election

FrancisUrquhart · March 2018

Theuniondivvie said:
Good old SLab, they never* let you down.

https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/972085375916298240

*always

eukation, eukation, eukation...

Anorak · March 2018

HYUFD said:

Anorak said:

HYUFD said:

Anorak said:
The Tory's defy gravity in national polling by keeping leaver and anyone-but-Corbyn voters. Local voters can think differently. Shows that if Labour had a moderate leader, they'd be 10 points ahead, easily.

[there may be some confirmation bias in the above]
Evidence? Recent German, Italian, Dutch and US elections suggest otherwise.

Even in France Macron did not run on the Socialist Party ticket
The 'confirmation bias' was meant to indicate it was an opinion, not a fact.

But I suppose you could view the fact that a Labour Party led by an antisemitic, anti-western trot with links to terrorist organisations and vicious authoritarian regimes, who has threatened the free press and our financial system, who has shown a complete absence of understanding how the economy works, has surrounded himself with proven liars and incompetents, and has directly accused our forces of murdering children in Yemen, is still level pegging in the polls as *evidence*, if you like...
A poll last year showed Labour would get a 2% lower voteshare against the Tories under Cooper or Umunna than under Corbyn, only Khan got a higher Labour voteshare than Corbyn but by just 1%

http://uk.businessinsider.com/poll-labour-would-go-backwards-under-yvette-cooper-or-chuka-umunna-2017-5

(i) Those are arch-blairites, toxic to many on the left.
(ii) May 2017? Not much happened since then, I suppose *eyeroll*

Anorak · March 2018

Ishmael_Z said:

DavidL said:

Theuniondivvie said:
Good old SLab, they never* let you down.

https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/972085375916298240

*always
OMG. That is incredible.
Everybody knows it's Kier Hardy.

Oliver's socialist brother.

HHemmelig · March 2018

HYUFD said:

HHemmelig said:

HYUFD said:
Though in the 2 Labour gains it was mainly the UKIP and Green votes going to Labour that was key, the Tory voteshare was up 8% in one and down just 3% in the other
The Nottingham result was far better than expected for the Tories....Wollaton is a wealthy liberal Remainy kind of area next to the university, the kind of place where you might have expected a Canterbury or Kensington swing to Labour. Ironically it is the former ward of John Hayes MP who couldn't have been a very good match with its liberal brand of Toryism.
Yes in terms of raw Tory voteshare

Nevertheless it has been a steep decline for the Tories in Nottingham South, where they now down to their last 2 councillors...hard to believe now that in the first few hours of the GE2015 results coverage, the BBC were projecting it as a Con gain.

Cookie · March 2018

Another Labour loss with a disproportionate swing in a usually favourable part of Bolton - there was one of those a few weeks back - something very rum in that nexk of the woods.

HYUFD · March 2018

Anorak said:

HYUFD said:

Anorak said:

HYUFD said:

Anorak said:
The Tory's defy gravity in national polling by keeping leaver and anyone-but-Corbyn voters. Local voters can think differently. Shows that if Labour had a moderate leader, they'd be 10 points ahead, easily.

[there may be some confirmation bias in the above]
Evidence? Recent German, Italian, Dutch and US elections suggest otherwise.

Even in France Macron did not run on the Socialist Party ticket
The 'confirmation bias' was meant to indicate it was an opinion, not a fact.

But I suppose you could view the fact that a Labour Party led by an antisemitic, anti-western trot with links to terrorist organisations and vicious authoritarian regimes, who has threatened the free press and our financial system, who has shown a complete absence of understanding how the economy works, has surrounded himself with proven liars and incompetents, and has directly accused our forces of murdering children in Yemen, is still level pegging in the polls as *evidence*, if you like...
A poll last year showed Labour would get a 2% lower voteshare against the Tories under Cooper or Umunna than under Corbyn, only Khan got a higher Labour voteshare than Corbyn but by just 1%

http://uk.businessinsider.com/poll-labour-would-go-backwards-under-yvette-cooper-or-chuka-umunna-2017-5
(i) Those are arch-blairites, toxic to many on the left.
(ii) May 2017? Not much happened since then, I suppose *eyeroll*

i) When was Cooper a Blairite? Even Umunna opposed the Iraq War
ii) Irrelevant as the relative difference would still likely be the same between the other 3 and Corbyn

HHemmelig · March 2018

HYUFD said:

HHemmelig said:

HYUFD said:

Anorak said:

HYUFD said:

Anorak said:
The Tory's defy gravity in national polling by keeping leaver and anyone-but-Corbyn voters. Local voters can think differently. Shows that if Labour had a moderate leader, they'd be 10 points ahead, easily.

[there may be some confirmation bias in the above]
Evidence? Recent German, Italian, Dutch and US elections suggest otherwise.

Even in France Macron did not run on the Socialist Party ticket
The 'confirmation bias' was meant to indicate it was an opinion, not a fact.

But I suppose you could view the fact that a Labour Party led by an antisemitic, anti-western trot with links to terrorist organisations and vicious authoritarian regimes, who has threatened the free press and our financial system, who has shown a complete absence of understanding how the economy works, has surrounded himself with proven liars and incompetents, and has directly accused our forces of murdering children in Yemen, is still level pegging in the polls as *evidence*, if you like...
Or you could look at the latest polling today putting Labour on 42%, it's highest rating since 1997 and a total any centre left party in Europe losing votes to anti immigration and anti globalisation parties at present would give their eye teeth for.
Labour's poll share was far higher than 42% through most of the 1997-2001 parliament.
Yet it only got 40% at the 2001 general election

Correct, I was merely correcting your statement that today's poll is "Labour's highest rating since 1997". Actually I think they may have polled above today's level at the beginning of the Iraq war in 2003 and perhaps at the beginning of the 2005 election campaign when they had one or two poll ratings in the low 40s. Certainly in many polls just ahead of the 2001 election Labour were above 42%.

HYUFD · March 2018

HHemmelig said:

HYUFD said:

HHemmelig said:

HYUFD said:
Though in the 2 Labour gains it was mainly the UKIP and Green votes going to Labour that was key, the Tory voteshare was up 8% in one and down just 3% in the other
The Nottingham result was far better than expected for the Tories....Wollaton is a wealthy liberal Remainy kind of area next to the university, the kind of place where you might have expected a Canterbury or Kensington swing to Labour. Ironically it is the former ward of John Hayes MP who couldn't have been a very good match with its liberal brand of Toryism.
Yes in terms of raw Tory voteshare
Nevertheless it has been a steep decline for the Tories in Nottingham South, where they now down to their last 2 councillors...hard to believe now that in the first few hours of the GE2015 results coverage, the BBC were projecting it as a Con gain.

Same in almost all big cities

HYUFD · March 2018

HHemmelig said:

HYUFD said:

HHemmelig said:

HYUFD said:

Anorak said:

HYUFD said:

Anorak said:
The Tory's defy gravity in national polling by keeping leaver and anyone-but-Corbyn voters. Local voters can think differently. Shows that if Labour had a moderate leader, they'd be 10 points ahead, easily.

[there may be some confirmation bias in the above]
Evidence? Recent German, Italian, Dutch and US elections suggest otherwise.

Even in France Macron did not run on the Socialist Party ticket
The 'confirmation bias' was meant to indicate it was an opinion, not a fact.

But I suppose you could view the fact that a Labour Party led by an antisemitic, anti-western trot with links to terrorist organisations and vicious authoritarian regimes, who has threatened the free press and our financial system, who has shown a complete absence of understanding how the economy works, has surrounded himself with proven liars and incompetents, and has directly accused our forces of murdering children in Yemen, is still level pegging in the polls as *evidence*, if you like...
Or you could look at the latest polling today putting Labour on 42%, it's highest rating since 1997 and a total any centre left party in Europe losing votes to anti immigration and anti globalisation parties at present would give their eye teeth for.
Labour's poll share was far higher than 42% through most of the 1997-2001 parliament.
Yet it only got 40% at the 2001 general election
Correct, I was merely correcting your statement that today's poll is "Labour's highest rating since 1997". Actually I think they may have polled above today's level at the beginning of the Iraq war in 2003 and perhaps at the beginning of the 2005 election campaign when they had one or two poll ratings in the low 40s. Certainly in many polls just ahead of the 2001 election Labour were above 42%.

I changed it to 'would be its highest voteshare since 1997' so should have been clearer, apologies.

TheScreamingEagles · March 2018

Bugger, he's a briliant judge.

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/972102966881726465

HHemmelig · March 2018

HYUFD said:

i) When was Cooper a Blairite? Even Umunna opposed the Iraq War
ii) Irrelevant as the relative difference would still likely be the same between the other 3 and Corbyn

Umunna defeated Steve Reed (now MP for Croydon North) for the nomination in Streatham by posing as a left wing challenger to a well known Blairite. Then morphed into a particularly slimy Blairite himself. Hardly a surprise he is hated by the left and it's likely he'll be in serious trouble for reselection if boundary changes significantly alter his seat.

Cooper is an empty vessel with a permanently miserable/outraged face....not the best demeanour for winning elections.

david_herdson · March 2018

HHemmelig said:

HYUFD said:

HHemmelig said:

HYUFD said:

Anorak said:

HYUFD said:

Anorak said:
The Tory's defy gravity in national polling by keeping leaver and anyone-but-Corbyn voters. Local voters can think differently. Shows that if Labour had a moderate leader, they'd be 10 points ahead, easily.

[there may be some confirmation bias in the above]
Evidence? Recent German, Italian, Dutch and US elections suggest otherwise.

Even in France Macron did not run on the Socialist Party ticket
The 'confirmation bias' was meant to indicate it was an opinion, not a fact.

But I suppose you could view the fact that a Labour Party led by an antisemitic, anti-western trot with links to terrorist organisations and vicious authoritarian regimes, who has threatened the free press and our financial system, who has shown a complete absence of understanding how the economy works, has surrounded himself with proven liars and incompetents, and has directly accused our forces of murdering children in Yemen, is still level pegging in the polls as *evidence*, if you like...
Or you could look at the latest polling today putting Labour on 42%, it's highest rating since 1997 and a total any centre left party in Europe losing votes to anti immigration and anti globalisation parties at present would give their eye teeth for.
Labour's poll share was far higher than 42% through most of the 1997-2001 parliament.
Yet it only got 40% at the 2001 general election
Correct, I was merely correcting your statement that today's poll is "Labour's highest rating since 1997". Actually I think they may have polled above today's level at the beginning of the Iraq war in 2003 and perhaps at the beginning of the 2005 election campaign when they had one or two poll ratings in the low 40s. Certainly in many polls just ahead of the 2001 election Labour were above 42%.

Labour routinely polled in the mid-40s under Miliband after the Omnishambles budget, and was up there under Corbyn after the 2017 election, including a 44% with Mori last September. They also peaked at two polls with 44% just before Brown didn't call the election in 2007.

Sunil_Prasannan · March 2018

Theuniondivvie said:

DavidL said:

Theuniondivvie said:
Good old SLab, they never* let you down.

https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/972085375916298240

*always
OMG. That is incredible.
Quite funny.

https://twitter.com/PeterGrantMP/status/972102956119191553

Keir Hardy was Jeremy Hardy's long lost ancestor.

TheScreamingEagles · March 2018

https://twitter.com/EssexCanning/status/972107542687043585

TheScreamingEagles · March 2018

https://twitter.com/guardian/status/972117082698592257

NickPalmer · March 2018

HHemmelig said:

HYUFD said:

HHemmelig said:

HYUFD said:
Though in the 2 Labour gains it was mainly the UKIP and Green votes going to Labour that was key, the Tory voteshare was up 8% in one and down just 3% in the other
The Nottingham result was far better than expected for the Tories....Wollaton is a wealthy liberal Remainy kind of area next to the university, the kind of place where you might have expected a Canterbury or Kensington swing to Labour. Ironically it is the former ward of John Hayes MP who couldn't have been a very good match with its liberal brand of Toryism.
Yes in terms of raw Tory voteshare
Nevertheless it has been a steep decline for the Tories in Nottingham South, where they now down to their last 2 councillors...hard to believe now that in the first few hours of the GE2015 results coverage, the BBC were projecting it as a Con gain.

All the above comments are true. The background is that Nottingham Labour has had remarkable campaigning expertise for some time, long before Corbyn arrived, and the potential middle-class left-of-centre vote has been persuaded quite a while back - that's why there are very few non-Labour councillors left in the city. I think at this stage Labour can only really hope to maintain its position there, not pile up lots more.

HHemmelig · March 2018

david_herdson said:

Labour routinely polled in the mid-40s under Miliband after the Omnishambles budget, and was up there under Corbyn after the 2017 election, including a 44% with Mori last September. They also peaked at two polls with 44% just before Brown didn't call the election in 2007.

Yes I forgot that short lived Brown bounce.

Did anyone see QT last night? I imagine that mouthy idiot Pidcock did wonders for the Tory poll share. It's no mean feat for a panellist to be so bad as to make me warm to Liam Fox. The explanation for the Tories being at 40%+ in the polls in a nutshell.

williamglenn · March 2018

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/972116782642270209

rottenborough · March 2018

https://twitter.com/rafaelbehr/status/972110317454012416

david_herdson · March 2018

HHemmelig said:

HYUFD said:

Anorak said:

HYUFD said:

Anorak said:
The Tory's defy gravity in national polling by keeping leaver and anyone-but-Corbyn voters. Local voters can think differently. Shows that if Labour had a moderate leader, they'd be 10 points ahead, easily.

[there may be some confirmation bias in the above]
Evidence? Recent German, Italian, Dutch and US elections suggest otherwise.

Even in France Macron did not run on the Socialist Party ticket
The 'confirmation bias' was meant to indicate it was an opinion, not a fact.

But I suppose you could view the fact that a Labour Party led by an antisemitic, anti-western trot with links to terrorist organisations and vicious authoritarian regimes, who has threatened the free press and our financial system, who has shown a complete absence of understanding how the economy works, has surrounded himself with proven liars and incompetents, and has directly accused our forces of murdering children in Yemen, is still level pegging in the polls as *evidence*, if you like...
Or you could look at the latest polling today putting Labour on 42%, it's highest rating since 1997 and a total any centre left party in Europe losing votes to anti immigration and anti globalisation parties at present would give their eye teeth for.
Labour's poll share was far higher than 42% through most of the 1997-2001 parliament.

Labour's peak poll result was with Gallup, in November 1997:

Lab 63
Con 23
LD 11.

Sean_F · March 2018

TheScreamingEagles said:
Bugger, he's a briliant judge.

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/972102966881726465

What a fight over the nomination that will be. This is when Trump will nominate Sarah Palin to SCOTUS.

TheScreamingEagles · March 2018

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Bugger, he's a briliant judge.

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/972102966881726465
What a fight over the nomination that will be. This is when Trump will nominate Sarah Palin to SCOTUS.

Trump's going to nominate Roy Moore.

rottenborough · March 2018

This is an interesting thread on spotting bots on twitter:

https://twitter.com/edmarno/status/972095734886666240

rottenborough · March 2018

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Bugger, he's a briliant judge.

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/972102966881726465
What a fight over the nomination that will be. This is when Trump will nominate Sarah Palin to SCOTUS.

Who's going to argue, now that he is bringing world peace to us all.

Sean_F · March 2018

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Bugger, he's a briliant judge.

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/972102966881726465
What a fight over the nomination that will be. This is when Trump will nominate Sarah Palin to SCOTUS.

Trump's going to nominate Roy Moore.

Or Ann Coulter.

Sean_F · March 2018

david_herdson said:

HHemmelig said:

HYUFD said:

Anorak said:

HYUFD said:

Anorak said:
The Tory's defy gravity in national polling by keeping leaver and anyone-but-Corbyn voters. Local voters can think differently. Shows that if Labour had a moderate leader, they'd be 10 points ahead, easily.

[there may be some confirmation bias in the above]
Evidence? Recent German, Italian, Dutch and US elections suggest otherwise.

Even in France Macron did not run on the Socialist Party ticket
The 'confirmation bias' was meant to indicate it was an opinion, not a fact.

But I suppose you could view the fact that a Labour Party led by an antisemitic, anti-western trot with links to terrorist organisations and vicious authoritarian regimes, who has threatened the free press and our financial system, who has shown a complete absence of understanding how the economy works, has surrounded himself with proven liars and incompetents, and has directly accused our forces of murdering children in Yemen, is still level pegging in the polls as *evidence*, if you like...
Or you could look at the latest polling today putting Labour on 42%, it's highest rating since 1997 and a total any centre left party in Europe losing votes to anti immigration and anti globalisation parties at present would give their eye teeth for.
Labour's poll share was far higher than 42% through most of the 1997-2001 parliament.
Labour's peak poll result was with Gallup, in November 1997:

Lab 63
Con 23
LD 11.

According to Electoral Calculus, that would have produced 603 Labour MPs, 18 Lib Dems, 12 Conservatives.

williamglenn · March 2018

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Bugger, he's a briliant judge.

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/972102966881726465
What a fight over the nomination that will be. This is when Trump will nominate Sarah Palin to SCOTUS.

Trump's going to nominate Roy Moore.

He needs a proven ratings winner: Judge Judy.

rottenborough · March 2018

Sean_F said:

david_herdson said:

HHemmelig said:

HYUFD said:

Anorak said:

HYUFD said:

Anorak said:
The Tory's defy gravity in national polling by keeping leaver and anyone-but-Corbyn voters. Local voters can think differently. Shows that if Labour had a moderate leader, they'd be 10 points ahead, easily.

[there may be some confirmation bias in the above]
Evidence? Recent German, Italian, Dutch and US elections suggest otherwise.

Even in France Macron did not run on the Socialist Party ticket
The 'confirmation bias' was meant to indicate it was an opinion, not a fact.

But I suppose you could view the fact that a Labour Party led by an antisemitic, anti-western trot with links to terrorist organisations and vicious authoritarian regimes, who has threatened the free press and our financial system, who has shown a complete absence of understanding how the economy works, has surrounded himself with proven liars and incompetents, and has directly accused our forces of murdering children in Yemen, is still level pegging in the polls as *evidence*, if you like...
Or you could look at the latest polling today putting Labour on 42%, it's highest rating since 1997 and a total any centre left party in Europe losing votes to anti immigration and anti globalisation parties at present would give their eye teeth for.
Labour's poll share was far higher than 42% through most of the 1997-2001 parliament.
Labour's peak poll result was with Gallup, in November 1997:

Lab 63
Con 23
LD 11.
According to Electoral Calculus, that would have produced 603 Labour MPs, 18 Lib Dems, 12 Conservatives.

Yeh, that Blair, he was useless.

PClipp · March 2018

HYUFD said:

PClipp said:

HYUFD said:
Though in the 2 Labour gains it was mainly the UKIP and Green votes going to Labour that was key, the Tory voteshare was up 8% in one and down just 3% in the other

HYUFD said:
Though in the 2 Labour gains it was mainly the UKIP and Green votes going to Labour that was key, the Tory voteshare was up 8% in one and down just 3% in the other

HYUFD said:
Though in the 2 Labour gains it was mainly the UKIP and Green votes going to Labour that was key, the Tory voteshare was up 8% in one and down just 3% in the other
The problem for you Tories is that, if you polarise the country between "them" and "us", and the "us" cotton on to what you are trying to do, then there could very well a massive concentration of the anti-Tory vote, in favour of whoever seems best place to defeat the Tory candidate. This is what we have seen in the local elections this week.

This is not necessarily in favour of the Labour candidate, so the traditional Corbyn-Labour scare tactics will not work for the Tories next time. At least, I hope not.
There will likely be an anti Tory and anti Labour vote next time but the fact the minor parties were so squeezed at the general election means there is little more room for tactical voting

Only if you Tories are so stupid as go for a plebiscite in favour of creating a May Dictatorship again.

david_herdson · March 2018

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Bugger, he's a briliant judge.

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/972102966881726465
What a fight over the nomination that will be. This is when Trump will nominate Sarah Palin to SCOTUS.

Trump's going to nominate Roy Moore.

or Melania.

Or Ivanka.

Or himself.

MarkHopkins · March 2018

rottenborough said:

Sean_F said:

david_herdson said:

HHemmelig said:

HYUFD said:

Anorak said:

HYUFD said:

Anorak said:
The Tory's defy gravity in national polling by keeping leaver and anyone-but-Corbyn voters. Local voters can think differently. Shows that if Labour had a moderate leader, they'd be 10 points ahead, easily.

[there may be some confirmation bias in the above]
Evidence? Recent German, Italian, Dutch and US elections suggest otherwise.

Even in France Macron did not run on the Socialist Party ticket
The 'confirmation bias' was meant to indicate it was an opinion, not a fact.

But I suppose you could view the fact that a Labour Party led by an antisemitic, anti-western trot with links to terrorist organisations and vicious authoritarian regimes, who has threatened the free press and our financial system, who has shown a complete absence of understanding how the economy works, has surrounded himself with proven liars and incompetents, and has directly accused our forces of murdering children in Yemen, is still level pegging in the polls as *evidence*, if you like...
Or you could look at the latest polling today putting Labour on 42%, it's highest rating since 1997 and a total any centre left party in Europe losing votes to anti immigration and anti globalisation parties at present would give their eye teeth for.
Labour's poll share was far higher than 42% through most of the 1997-2001 parliament.
Labour's peak poll result was with Gallup, in November 1997:

Lab 63
Con 23
LD 11.
According to Electoral Calculus, that would have produced 603 Labour MPs, 18 Lib Dems, 12 Conservatives.
Yeh, that Blair, he was useless.

Brilliant electioneer. Terrible PM.

Though not as terrible as Brown.

tpfkar · March 2018

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Bugger, he's a briliant judge.

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/972102966881726465
What a fight over the nomination that will be. This is when Trump will nominate Sarah Palin to SCOTUS.

Trump's going to nominate Roy Moore.
Or Ann Coulter.

I reckon it's between Ivanka and Melania.

Anorak · March 2018

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Bugger, he's a briliant judge.

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/972102966881726465
What a fight over the nomination that will be. This is when Trump will nominate Sarah Palin to SCOTUS.

Trump's going to nominate Roy Moore.
Or Ann Coulter.

Glenn Beck would be awesome.

Morris_Dancer · March 2018

Good afternoon, everyone.

Thanks for this, Mr. Hayfield.

F1: just two hours and a few minutes to go, and that's it until the first race weekend, in a fortnight.

OldKingCole · March 2018

Apols if this has been posted earlier, but Robert Peston is complainig that the Luxemburg has summed up the British Brexit position better than he ever could.

‘They were in with a load of opt-outs. Now they are out and want a load of opt-ins.’;

At the (non-political) discussion group I go to someone commented, to agreement, yesterday that we’re proud to be British but ashamed of our present Government.

Mortimer · March 2018

HHemmelig said:

david_herdson said:

Labour routinely polled in the mid-40s under Miliband after the Omnishambles budget, and was up there under Corbyn after the 2017 election, including a 44% with Mori last September. They also peaked at two polls with 44% just before Brown didn't call the election in 2007.
Yes I forgot that short lived Brown bounce.

Did anyone see QT last night? I imagine that mouthy idiot Pidcock did wonders for the Tory poll share. It's no mean feat for a panellist to be so bad as to make me warm to Liam Fox. The explanation for the Tories being at 40%+ in the polls in a nutshell.

Shocking wasn't she. Huffing and puffing all over the place.

I mentioned it during the programme last night - if she is the best hope for the next generation of Corbynites, we're not going to have Corbynite dominance of the Labour party for much longer....

MarkHopkins · March 2018

OldKingCole said:
Apols if this has been posted earlier, but Robert Peston is complainig that the Luxemburg has summed up the British Brexit position better than he ever could.

‘They were in with a load of opt-outs. Now they are out and want a load of opt-ins.’;

At the (non-political) discussion group I go to someone commented, to agreement, yesterday that we’re proud to be British but ashamed of our present Government.

We didn't have a 'load' of opt-outs, that was the problem!

Charles · March 2018

TheScreamingEagles said:
Bugger, he's a briliant judge.

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/972102966881726465

Replacement before the mid terms?

Mortimer · March 2018

OldKingCole said:
Apols if this has been posted earlier, but Robert Peston is complainig that the Luxemburg has summed up the British Brexit position better than he ever could.

‘They were in with a load of opt-outs. Now they are out and want a load of opt-ins.’;

At the (non-political) discussion group I go to someone commented, to agreement, yesterday that we’re proud to be British but ashamed of our present Government.

Yet the polls indicate that the Tory share is higher than it has been, in government, for aggges.

OldKingCole · March 2018

MarkHopkins said:

OldKingCole said:
Apols if this has been posted earlier, but Robert Peston is complainig that the Luxemburg has summed up the British Brexit position better than he ever could.

‘They were in with a load of opt-outs. Now they are out and want a load of opt-ins.’;

At the (non-political) discussion group I go to someone commented, to agreement, yesterday that we’re proud to be British but ashamed of our present Government.

We didn't have a 'load' of opt-outs, that was the problem!

The Euro? Personally, when I join a club I observe the rules.

Floater · March 2018

OldKingCole said:

MarkHopkins said:

OldKingCole said:
Apols if this has been posted earlier, but Robert Peston is complainig that the Luxemburg has summed up the British Brexit position better than he ever could.

‘They were in with a load of opt-outs. Now they are out and want a load of opt-ins.’;

At the (non-political) discussion group I go to someone commented, to agreement, yesterday that we’re proud to be British but ashamed of our present Government.

We didn't have a 'load' of opt-outs, that was the problem!

The Euro? Personally, when I join a club I observe the rules.

When we joined the club that wasn't a rule

OldKingCole · March 2018

Sean_F said:

david_herdson said:

HHemmelig said:

HYUFD said:

Anorak said:

HYUFD said:

Anorak said:
The Tory's defy gravity in national polling by keeping leaver and anyone-but-Corbyn voters. Local voters can think differently. Shows that if Labour had a moderate leader, they'd be 10 points ahead, easily.

[there may be some confirmation bias in the above]
Evidence? Recent German, Italian, Dutch and US elections suggest otherwise.

Even in France Macron did not run on the Socialist Party ticket
The 'confirmation bias' was meant to indicate it was an opinion, not a fact.

But I suppose you could view the fact that a Labour Party led by an antisemitic, anti-western trot with links to terrorist organisations and vicious authoritarian regimes, who has threatened the free press and our financial system, who has shown a complete absence of understanding how the economy works, has surrounded himself with proven liars and incompetents, and has directly accused our forces of murdering children in Yemen, is still level pegging in the polls as *evidence*, if you like...
Or you could look at the latest polling today putting Labour on 42%, it's highest rating since 1997 and a total any centre left party in Europe losing votes to anti immigration and anti globalisation parties at present would give their eye teeth for.
Labour's poll share was far higher than 42% through most of the 1997-2001 parliament.
Labour's peak poll result was with Gallup, in November 1997:

Lab 63
Con 23
LD 11.
According to Electoral Calculus, that would have produced 603 Labour MPs, 18 Lib Dems, 12 Conservatives.

Paddy A as LotO. Could have been fun!

tpfkar · March 2018

OldKingCole said:

Sean_F said:

david_herdson said:

HHemmelig said:

HYUFD said:

Anorak said:

HYUFD said:

Anorak said:
The Tory's defy gravity in national polling by keeping leaver and anyone-but-Corbyn voters. Local voters can think differently. Shows that if Labour had a moderate leader, they'd be 10 points ahead, easily.

[there may be some confirmation bias in the above]
Evidence? Recent German, Italian, Dutch and US elections suggest otherwise.

Even in France Macron did not run on the Socialist Party ticket
The 'confirmation bias' was meant to indicate it was an opinion, not a fact.

But I suppose you could view the fact that a Labour Party led by an antisemitic, anti-western trot with links to terrorist organisations and vicious authoritarian regimes, who has threatened the free press and our financial system, who has shown a complete absence of understanding how the economy works, has surrounded himself with proven liars and incompetents, and has directly accused our forces of murdering children in Yemen, is still level pegging in the polls as *evidence*, if you like...
Or you could look at the latest polling today putting Labour on 42%, it's highest rating since 1997 and a total any centre left party in Europe losing votes to anti immigration and anti globalisation parties at present would give their eye teeth for.
Labour's poll share was far higher than 42% through most of the 1997-2001 parliament.
Labour's peak poll result was with Gallup, in November 1997:

Lab 63
Con 23
LD 11.
According to Electoral Calculus, that would have produced 603 Labour MPs, 18 Lib Dems, 12 Conservatives.
Paddy A as LotO. Could have been fun!

As it's Friday afternoon, I wonder which 12 Tories. Who would the Tory leader have been?

148grss · March 2018

Charles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Bugger, he's a briliant judge.

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/972102966881726465
Replacement before the mid terms?

Don't think this is true: I think the GOP Senator is worried he's gonna lose to a Dem and wants to make voters think a Supreme Court seat is in the running.

Charles · March 2018

OldKingCole said:

Sean_F said:

david_herdson said:

HHemmelig said:

HYUFD said:

Anorak said:

HYUFD said:

Anorak said:
The Tory's defy gravity in national polling by keeping leaver and anyone-but-Corbyn voters. Local voters can think differently. Shows that if Labour had a moderate leader, they'd be 10 points ahead, easily.

[there may be some confirmation bias in the above]
Evidence? Recent German, Italian, Dutch and US elections suggest otherwise.

Even in France Macron did not run on the Socialist Party ticket
The 'confirmation bias' was meant to indicate it was an opinion, not a fact.

But I suppose you could view the fact that a Labour Party led by an antisemitic, anti-western trot with links to terrorist organisations and vicious authoritarian regimes, who has threatened the free press and our financial system, who has shown a complete absence of understanding how the economy works, has surrounded himself with proven liars and incompetents, and has directly accused our forces of murdering children in Yemen, is still level pegging in the polls as *evidence*, if you like...
Or you could look at the latest polling today putting Labour on 42%, it's highest rating since 1997 and a total any centre left party in Europe losing votes to anti immigration and anti globalisation parties at present would give their eye teeth for.
Labour's poll share was far higher than 42% through most of the 1997-2001 parliament.
Labour's peak poll result was with Gallup, in November 1997:

Lab 63
Con 23
LD 11.
According to Electoral Calculus, that would have produced 603 Labour MPs, 18 Lib Dems, 12 Conservatives.
Paddy A as LotO. Could have been fun!

How many complaints would the LibDems have made about the unfairness of FPTP?

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